Search results for: the state transition
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2403

Search results for: the state transition

1143 Control of a DC Servomotor Using Fuzzy Logic Sliding Mode Model Following Controller

Authors: Phongsak Phakamach

Abstract:

A DC servomotor position control system using a Fuzzy Logic Sliding mode Model Following Control or FLSMFC approach is presented. The FLSMFC structure consists of an integrator and variable structure system. The integral control is introduced into it in order to eliminated steady state error due to step and ramp command inputs and improve control precision, while the fuzzy control would maintain the insensitivity to parameter variation and disturbances. The FLSMFC strategy is implemented and applied to a position control of a DC servomotor drives. Experimental results indicated that FLSMFC system performance with respect to the sensitivity to parameter variations is greatly reduced. Also, excellent control effects and avoids the chattering phenomenon.

Keywords: Sliding mode model following control, fuzzy logic, DC servomotor.

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1142 Ontology and CDSS Based Intelligent Health Data Management in Health Care Server

Authors: Eun-Jung Ko, Hyung-Jik Lee, Jeun-Woo Lee

Abstract:

In ubiqutious healthcare environment, user's health data are transfered to the remote healthcare server by the user's wearable system or mobile phone. These collected user's health data should be managed and analyzed in the healthcare server, so that care giver or user can monitor user's physiological state. In this paper, we designed and developed the intelligent Healthcare Server to manage the user's health data using CDSS and ontology. Our system can analyze user's health data semantically using CDSS and ontology, and report the result of user's physiological raw data to the user and care giver.

Keywords: u-healthcare, CDSS, healthcare server, health data, ontology.

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1141 Thermal Analysis of the Current Path from Circuit Breakers Using Finite Element Method

Authors: Adrian T. Plesca

Abstract:

This paper describes a three-dimensional thermal model of the current path included in the low voltage power circuit breakers. The model can be used to analyse the thermal behaviour of the current path during both steady-state and transient conditions. The current path lengthwise temperature distribution and timecurrent characteristic of the terminal connections of the power circuit breaker have been obtained. The influence of the electric current and voltage drop on main electric contact of the circuit breaker has been investigated. To validate the three-dimensional thermal model, some experimental tests have been done. There is a good correlation between experimental and simulation results.

Keywords: Current path, power circuit breakers, temperature distribution, thermal analysis.

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1140 Modified Techniques for Distribution System Reliability Improvement by Parallel Operation of Transformers

Authors: Ohn Zin Lin, Okka, Cho Cho Myint

Abstract:

It is important to consider the effects of transformers on distribution system because they have the highest impact on system reliability. It is generally said that parallel operation of transformers (POT) can improve the system reliability. However, the estimation approach can be also considered for accuracy. In this paper, we propose a three-state components model and equations to determine the reliability improvement by POT, and cooperation of POT and distributed generation (DG). Based on the proposed model and techniques, the effect of POT is analyzed in four different tests with the consideration of conventional distribution system, distribution automation system (DAS) and DG. According to the results, the reliability is greatly improved by cooperation of POT, DAS and DG. The proposed model and methods are applicable to not only developing countries which have conventional distribution system but also developed countries in which DAS has already installed.

Keywords: Distribution system, reliability, dispersed generator, energy not supply, transformer parallel operation.

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1139 Surface Flattening based on Linear-Elastic Finite Element Method

Authors: Wen-liang Chen, Peng Wei, Yidong Bao

Abstract:

This paper presents a linear-elastic finite element method based flattening algorithm for three dimensional triangular surfaces. First, an intrinsic characteristic preserving method is used to obtain the initial developing graph, which preserves the angles and length ratios between two adjacent edges. Then, an iterative equation is established based on linear-elastic finite element method and the flattening result with an equilibrium state of internal force is obtained by solving this iterative equation. The results show that complex surfaces can be dealt with this proposed method, which is an efficient tool for the applications in computer aided design, such as mould design.

Keywords: Triangular mesh, surface flattening, finite elementmethod, linear-elastic deformation.

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1138 A Framework for Personalized Multi-Device Information Communicating System

Authors: Rohiza Ahmad, Rozana Kasbon, Eliza Mazmee Mazlan, Aliza Sarlan

Abstract:

Due to the mobility of users, many information systems are now developed with the capability of supporting retrieval of information from both static and mobile users. Hence, the amount, content and format of the information retrieved will need to be tailored according to the device and the user who requested for it. Thus, this paper presents a framework for the design and implementation of such a system, which is to be developed for communicating final examination related information to the academic community at one university in Malaysia. The concept of personalization will be implemented in the system so that only highly relevant information will be delivered to the users. The personalization concept used will be based on user profiling as well as context. The system in its final state will be accessible through cell phones as well as intranet connected personal computers.

Keywords: System framework, personalization, informationcommunicating system, multi-device.

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1137 Optimal Type and Installation Time of Wind Farm in a Power System, Considering Service Providers

Authors: M. H. Abedi, A. Jalilvand

Abstract:

The economic development benefits of wind energy may be the most tangible basis for the local and state officials’ interests. In addition to the direct salaries associated with building and operating wind projects, the wind energy industry provides indirect jobs and benefits. The optimal planning of a wind farm is one most important topic in renewable energy technology. Many methods have been implemented to optimize the cost and output benefit of wind farms, but the contribution of this paper is mentioning different types of service providers and also time of installation of wind turbines during planning horizon years. Genetic algorithm (GA) is used to optimize the problem. It is observed that an appropriate layout of wind farm can cause to minimize the different types of cost.

Keywords: Renewable energy, wind farm, optimization, planning.

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1136 Analysis of the Key Indicators of Sustainable Tourism: A Case Study in Lagoa da Confusão, Brazil

Authors: Veruska C. Dutra, Lucio F. M. Adorno, Mary L. G. S. Senna

Abstract:

From the start, the importance of having a plan to sustain tourism was acknowledged. The correct methods to monitor that type of tourism have been researched. Thus, we propose in this work to analyze the applicability of a monitoring and assistance method on the understanding of the tourism sustainability in a small size destiny or getaway. In this study, the subject is Lagoa da Confusão, in the state of Tocantins and the analysis was carried out through the efficiency of the local indicators, according to the WOT approach. We concluded that the sustainable tourism key points that were analyzed demonstrated to be important evaluation and quantification tools for the proposed tasks to be developed in the mentioned destiny. This is a study of an interdisciplinary character and the deductive method was chosen as the guiding line.

Keywords: Indicators, Lagoa da Confusão, Tocantins, Brazil, monitoring, sustainability.

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1135 The Integrated Studies of Infectious Disease Using Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation

Authors: R. Kongnuy, E. Naowanich

Abstract:

In this paper we develop and analyze the model for the spread of Leptospirosis by age group in Thailand, between 1997 and 2010 by using mathematical modeling and computer simulation. Leptospirosis is caused by pathogenic spirochetes of the genus Leptospira. It is a zoonotic disease of global importance and an emerging health problem in Thailand. In Thailand, leptospirosis is a reportable disease, the top three age groups are 23.31% in 35-44 years olds group, 22.76% in 25-34 year olds group, 17.60% in 45-54 year olds group from reported leptospirosis between 1997 and 2010, with a peak in 35-44 year olds group. Our paper, the Leptosipirosis transmission by age group in Thailand is studied on the mathematical model. Some analytical and simulation results are presented.

Keywords: Age Group, Equilibrium State, Leptospirosis, Mathematical Modeling.

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1134 Aspects Regarding the Genesis of the City of Suceava, a Medieval Capital of Moldavia

Authors: Denis Câprâroiu

Abstract:

The city of Suceava, one of the most important medieval capital of Moldova, owes its urban genesis to the power center established in its territory at the turn of the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries. Freed from the effective control exercised by the Emir Nogai through Alanians, the local center of power evolved as the main representative of the interests of indigenous people in relation to the Hungarian Angevin dinasty and to their representatives from Maramures. From this perspective, the political and military role of the settlement of Suceava was archeologically proved by the discovery of extensive fortifications, unrivaled in the first half of the XIVth century-s Moldavia. At the end of that century, voivod Peter I decides to move the capital of the state from Siret to Suceava. That option stimulated the development of the settlement on specific urban coordinates.

Keywords: Moldova, Suceava, voivod, capital.

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1133 A Study of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equation Systems Arising in Differential Game Models of Changing Society

Authors: Weihua Ruan, Kuan-Chou Chen

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with a system of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations coupled with an autonomous dynamical system. The mathematical system arises in the differential game formulation of political economy models as an infinite-horizon continuous-time differential game with discounted instantaneous payoff rates and continuously and discretely varying state variables. The existence of a weak solution of the PDE system is proven and a computational scheme of approximate solution is developed for a class of such systems. A model of democratization is mathematically analyzed as an illustration of application.

Keywords: Differential games, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, infinite horizon, political-economy models.

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1132 Civil Protection in Mass Methanol Poisoning in the Czech Republic

Authors: Michaela Vašková, Jan Hrdlička, Otakar J. Mika, Jiří Barta, Gabriela Clemensová

Abstract:

The paper is focused on the methods to solutions of the crisis situation in the Czech Republic associated with the mass methanol poisoning. The emphasis is put on tasks of individual state bodies and of Integrated Rescue System during the handling of the crisis. The theoretical part describes poisonings, ways of intoxication, types of intoxicants and cases of mass poisoning by dangerous substances in the world. The practical part describes the development, causes and solutions of extraordinary event, mass methanol poisoning in the Czech Republic. The main emphasis was put on the crisis management of the Czech Republic in solving this situation.

Keywords: Crisis management, poisoning, methanol, hazardous substances, extraordinary event.

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1131 The Auto-Tuning PID Controller for Interacting Water Level Process

Authors: Satean Tunyasrirut, Tianchai Suksri, Arjin Numsomran, Supan Gulpanich, Kitti Tirasesth

Abstract:

This paper presents the approach to design the Auto- Tuning PID controller for interactive Water Level Process using integral step response. The Integral Step Response (ISR) is the method to model a dynamic process which can be done easily, conveniently and very efficiently. Therefore this method is advantage for design the auto tune PID controller. Our scheme uses the root locus technique to design PID controller. In this paper MATLAB is used for modeling and testing of the control system. The experimental results of the interacting water level process can be satisfyingly illustrated the transient response and the steady state response.

Keywords: Coupled-Tank, Interacting water level process, PIDController, Auto-tuning.

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1130 Kalman Filter Design in Structural Identification with Unknown Excitation

Authors: Z. Masoumi, B. Moaveni

Abstract:

This article is about first step of structural health monitoring by identifying structural system in the presence of unknown input. In the structural system identification, identification of structural parameters such as stiffness and damping are considered. In this study, the Kalman filter (KF) design for structural systems with unknown excitation is expressed. External excitations, such as earthquakes, wind or any other forces are not measured or not available. The purpose of this filter is its strengths to estimate the state variables of the system in the presence of unknown input. Also least squares estimation (LSE) method with unknown input is studied. Estimates of parameters have been adopted. Finally, using two examples advantages and drawbacks of both methods are studied.

Keywords: Structural health monitoring, Kalman filter, Least square estimation, structural system identification.

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1129 A FEM Study of Explosive Welding of Double Layer Tubes

Authors: R. Alipour, F.Najarian

Abstract:

Explosive welding is a process which uses explosive detonation to move the flyer plate material into the base material to produce a solid state joint. Experimental tests have been carried out by other researchers; have been considered to explosively welded aluminium 7039 and steel 4340 tubes in one step. The tests have been done using various stand-off distances and explosive ratios. Various interface geometries have been obtained from these experiments. In this paper, all the experiments carried out were simulated using the finite element method. The flyer plate and collision velocities obtained from the analysis were validated by the pin-measurement experiments. The numerical results showed that very high localized plastic deformation produced at the bond interface. The Ls_dyna_971 FEM has been used for all simulation process.

Keywords: Explosive Welding, Johnson-Cook Equation, Finite Element, JWL Equation.

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1128 Circular Economy Maturity Models: A Systematic Literature Review

Authors: D. Kreutzer, S. Müller-Abdelrazeq, I. Isenhardt

Abstract:

Resource scarcity, energy transition and the planned climate neutrality pose enormous challenges for manufacturing companies. In order to achieve these goals and a holistic sustainable development, the European Union has listed the circular economy as part of the Circular Economy Action Plan. In addition to a reduction in resource consumption, reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and a reduced volume of waste, the principles of the circular economy also offer enormous economic potential for companies, such as the generation of new circular business models. However, many manufacturing companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, do not have the necessary capacity to plan their transformation. They need support and strategies on the path to circular transformation because this change affects not only production but also the entire company. Maturity models offer an approach to determine the current status of companies’ transformation processes. In addition, companies can use the models to identify transformation strategies and thus promote the transformation process. While maturity models are established in other areas, e.g., IT or project management, only a few circular economy maturity models can be found in the scientific literature. The aim of this paper is to analyze the identified maturity models of the circular economy through a systematic literature review (SLR) and, besides other aspects, to check their completeness as well as their quality. For this purpose, circular economy maturity models at the company's (micro) level were identified from the literature, compared, and analyzed with regard to their theoretical and methodological structure. A specific focus was placed, on the one hand, on the analysis of the business units considered in the respective models and, on the other hand, on the underlying metrics and indicators in order to determine the individual maturity level of the entire company. The results of the literature review show, for instance, a significant difference in the number and types of indicators as well as their metrics. For example, most models use subjective indicators and very few objective indicators in their surveys. It was also found that there are rarely well-founded thresholds between the levels. Based on the generated results, concrete ideas and proposals for a research agenda in the field of circular economy maturity models are made.

Keywords: Circular economy, maturity model, maturity assessment, systematic literature review.

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1127 Dispenser Longitudinal Movement ControlDesign Based on Auto - Disturbances –Rejection - Controller

Authors: Qiaozhen Song

Abstract:

Based on the feature of model disturbances and uncertainty being compensated dynamically in auto – disturbances-rejection-controller (ADRC), a new method using ADRC is proposed for the decoupling control of dispenser longitudinal movement in big flight envelope. Developed from nonlinear model directly, ADRC is especially suitable for dynamic model that has big disturbances. Furthermore, without changing the structure and parameters of the controller in big flight envelope, this scheme can simplify the design of flight control system. The simulation results in big flight envelope show that the system achieves high dynamic performance, steady state performance and the controller has strong robustness.

Keywords: ADRC, ESO, nonlinear system

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1126 Robust Human Rights Governance: Developing International Criteria

Authors: Helen P. Greatrex

Abstract:

Many states are now committed to implementing international human rights standards domestically. In terms of practical governance, how might effectiveness be measured? A facevalue answer can be found in domestic laws and institutions relating to human rights. However, this article provides two further tools to help states assess their status on the spectrum of robust to fragile human rights governance. The first recognises that each state has its own 'human rights history' and the ideal end stage is robust human rights governance, and the second is developing criteria to assess robustness. Although a New Zealand case study is used to illustrate these tools, the widespread adoption of human rights standards by many states inevitably means that the issues are relevant to other countries. This is even though there will always be varying degrees of similarity-difference in constitutional background and developed or emerging human rights systems.

Keywords: robust human rights governance, fragile states.

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1125 A Proposed Hybrid Approach for Feature Selection in Text Document Categorization

Authors: M. F. Zaiyadi, B. Baharudin

Abstract:

Text document categorization involves large amount of data or features. The high dimensionality of features is a troublesome and can affect the performance of the classification. Therefore, feature selection is strongly considered as one of the crucial part in text document categorization. Selecting the best features to represent documents can reduce the dimensionality of feature space hence increase the performance. There were many approaches has been implemented by various researchers to overcome this problem. This paper proposed a novel hybrid approach for feature selection in text document categorization based on Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) and Information Gain (IG). We also presented state-of-the-art algorithms by several other researchers.

Keywords: Ant colony optimization, feature selection, information gain, text categorization, text representation.

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1124 Estimation of Stress Intensity Factors from Near Crack Tip Field

Authors: Zhuang He, Andrei Kotousov

Abstract:

All current experimental methods for determination of stress intensity factors are based on the assumption that the state of stress near the crack tip is plane stress. Therefore, these methods rely on strain and displacement measurements made outside the near crack tip region affected by the three-dimensional effects or by process zone. In this paper, we develop and validate an experimental procedure for the evaluation of stress intensity factors from the measurements of the out-of-plane displacements in the surface area controlled by 3D effects. The evaluation of stress intensity factors is possible when the process zone is sufficiently small, and the displacement field generated by the 3D effects is fully encapsulated by K-dominance region.

Keywords: Digital image correlation, stress intensity factors, three-dimensional effects, transverse displacement.

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1123 Solid State Drive End to End Reliability Prediction, Characterization and Control

Authors: Mohd Azman Abdul Latif, Erwan Basiron

Abstract:

A flaw or drift from expected operational performance in one component (NAND, PMIC, controller, DRAM, etc.) may affect the reliability of the entire Solid State Drive (SSD) system. Therefore, it is important to ensure the required quality of each individual component through qualification testing specified using standards or user requirements. Qualification testing is time-consuming and comes at a substantial cost for product manufacturers. A highly technical team, from all the eminent stakeholders is embarking on reliability prediction from beginning of new product development, identify critical to reliability parameters, perform full-blown characterization to embed margin into product reliability and establish control to ensure the product reliability is sustainable in the mass production. The paper will discuss a comprehensive development framework, comprehending SSD end to end from design to assembly, in-line inspection, in-line testing and will be able to predict and to validate the product reliability at the early stage of new product development. During the design stage, the SSD will go through intense reliability margin investigation with focus on assembly process attributes, process equipment control, in-process metrology and also comprehending forward looking product roadmap. Once these pillars are completed, the next step is to perform process characterization and build up reliability prediction modeling. Next, for the design validation process, the reliability prediction specifically solder joint simulator will be established. The SSD will be stratified into Non-Operating and Operating tests with focus on solder joint reliability and connectivity/component latent failures by prevention through design intervention and containment through Temperature Cycle Test (TCT). Some of the SSDs will be subjected to the physical solder joint analysis called Dye and Pry (DP) and Cross Section analysis. The result will be feedbacked to the simulation team for any corrective actions required to further improve the design. Once the SSD is validated and is proven working, it will be subjected to implementation of the monitor phase whereby Design for Assembly (DFA) rules will be updated. At this stage, the design change, process and equipment parameters are in control. Predictable product reliability at early product development will enable on-time sample qualification delivery to customer and will optimize product development validation, effective development resource and will avoid forced late investment to bandage the end-of-life product failures. Understanding the critical to reliability parameters earlier will allow focus on increasing the product margin that will increase customer confidence to product reliability.

Keywords: e2e reliability prediction, SSD, TCT, Solder Joint Reliability, NUDD, connectivity issues, qualifications, characterization and control.

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1122 Optimizing PelletPAVE™ Rubberized Asphalt Mix Design Using Gyratory Compaction and Volumetrics

Authors: H. Al-Baghli

Abstract:

In this investigation, rubberized HMA technology was examined to address the most critical forms of pavement distresses in the State of Kuwait, namely, high temperature rutting, and moisture induced raveling. PelletPAVE™ additive was selected as the preferred technology, since it offered a convenient method of directly modifying the exiting local HMA recipe without having to polymer modify the bitumen. Experimental work, using various Pelletpave contents was carried out at Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR) to design an optimum rubberized HMA formulation prior to conducting a pilot-scale road trial. With the aid of a gyratory compactor, the compaction and volumetric properties of HMAs containing 2.5% and 3.0% Pelletpave additive were investigated at a range of bitumen contents, all by mass of total mix.

Keywords: Modified bitumen, rubberized hot mix asphalt, gyratory compaction, volumetric properties.

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1121 Natural and Mixed Convection Heat Transfer Cooling of Discrete Heat Sources Placed Near the Bottom on a PCB

Authors: Tapano Kumar Hotta, S P Venkateshan

Abstract:

Steady state experiments have been conducted for natural and mixed convection heat transfer, from five different sized protruding discrete heat sources, placed at the bottom position on a PCB and mounted on a vertical channel. The characteristic length ( Lh ) of heat sources vary from 0.005 to 0.011 m. The study has been done for different range of Reynolds number and modified Grashof number. From the experiment, the surface temperature distribution and the Nusselt number of discrete heat sources have been obtained and the effects of Reynold number and Richardson number on them have been discussed. The objective is to find the rate of heat dissipation from heat sources, by placing them at the bottom position on a PCB and to compare both modes of cooling of heat sources.

Keywords: Discrete heat source, mixed convection, natural convection, vertical channel

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1120 Measurement of Acoustic Loss in Nano-Layered Coating Developed for Thermal Noise Reduction

Authors: E. Cesarini, M. Lorenzini, R. Cardarelli, S. Chao, E. Coccia, V. Fafone, Y. Minenkow, I. Nardecchia, I. M. Pinto, A. Rocchi, V. Sequino, C. Taranto

Abstract:

Structural relaxation processes in optical coatings represent a fundamental limit to the sensitivity of gravitational waves detectors, MEMS, optical metrology and entangled state experiments. To face this problem, many research lines are now active, in particular the characterization of new materials and novel solutions to be employed as coatings in future gravitational wave detectors. Nano-layered coating deposition is among the most promising techniques. We report on the measurement of acoustic loss of nm-layered composites (Ti2O/SiO2), performed with the GeNS nodal suspension, compared with sputtered λ/4 thin films nowadays employed.

Keywords: Mechanical measurement, nanomaterials, optical coating, thermal noise.

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1119 Comparative Study of Some Adaptive Fuzzy Algorithms for Manipulator Control

Authors: Sudeept Mohan, Surekha Bhanot

Abstract:

The problem of manipulator control is a highly complex problem of controlling a system which is multi-input, multioutput, non-linear and time variant. In this paper some adaptive fuzzy, and a new hybrid fuzzy control algorithm have been comparatively evaluated through simulations, for manipulator control. The adaptive fuzzy controllers consist of self-organizing, self-tuning, and coarse/fine adaptive fuzzy schemes. These controllers are tested for different trajectories and for varying manipulator parameters through simulations. Various performance indices like the RMS error, steady state error and maximum error are used for comparison. It is observed that the self-organizing fuzzy controller gives the best performance. The proposed hybrid fuzzy plus integral error controller also performs remarkably well, given its simple structure.

Keywords: Hybrid fuzzy, Self-organizing, Self-tuning, Trajectory tracking.

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1118 Neuron-Based Control Mechanisms for a Robotic Arm and Hand

Authors: Nishant Singh, Christian Huyck, Vaibhav Gandhi, Alexander Jones

Abstract:

A robotic arm and hand controlled by simulated neurons is presented. The robot makes use of a biological neuron simulator using a point neural model. The neurons and synapses are organised to create a finite state automaton including neural inputs from sensors, and outputs to effectors. The robot performs a simple pick-and-place task. This work is a proof of concept study for a longer term approach. It is hoped that further work will lead to more effective and flexible robots. As another benefit, it is hoped that further work will also lead to a better understanding of human and other animal neural processing, particularly for physical motion. This is a multidisciplinary approach combining cognitive neuroscience, robotics, and psychology.

Keywords: Robot, neuron, cell assembly, spiking neuron, force sensitive resistor.

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1117 Nonlinear Observer Design and Sliding Mode Control of Four Rotors Helicopter

Authors: H. Bouadi, M. Tadjine

Abstract:

In this paper; we are interested in dynamic modelling of quadrotor while taking into account the high-order nonholonomic constraints as well as the various physical phenomena, which can influence the dynamics of a flying structure. These permit us to introduce a new state-space representation and new control scheme. We present after the development and the synthesis of a stabilizing control laws design based on sliding mode in order to perform best tracking results. It ensures locally asymptotic stability and desired tracking trajectories. Nonlinear observer is then synthesized in order to estimate the unmeasured states and the effects of the external disturbances such as wind and noise. Finally simulation results are also provided in order to illustrate the performances of the proposed controllers.

Keywords: Dynamic modelling, nonholonomic constraints, sliding mode, nonlinear observer.

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1116 Robust Fuzzy Control of Nonlinear Fuzzy Impulsive Singular Perturbed Systems with Time-varying Delay

Authors: Caigen Zhou, Haibo Jiang

Abstract:

The problem of robust fuzzy control for a class of nonlinear fuzzy impulsive singular perturbed systems with time-varying delay is investigated by employing Lyapunov functions. The nonlinear delay system is built based on the well-known T–S fuzzy model. The so-called parallel distributed compensation idea is employed to design the state feedback controller. Sufficient conditions for global exponential stability of the closed-loop system are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be easily solved by LMI technique. Some simulations illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: T–S fuzzy model, singular perturbed systems, time-varying delay, robust control.

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1115 Demographic Factors Influencing Employees’ Salary Expectations and Labor Turnover

Authors: M. Osipova

Abstract:

Thanks to informational technologies development every sphere of economics is becoming more and more datacentralized as people are generating huge datasets containing information on any aspect of their life. Applying research of such data to human resources management allows getting scarce statistics on labor market state including salary expectations and potential employees’ typical career behavior, and this information can become a reliable basis for management decisions. The following article presents results of career behavior research based on freely accessible resume data. Information used for study is much wider than one usually uses in human resources surveys. That is why there is enough data for statistically significant results even for subgroups analysis.

Keywords: Human resources management, labor market, salary expectations, statistics, turnover.

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1114 Parametric Approach for Reserve Liability Estimate in Mortgage Insurance

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

Abstract:

Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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