Search results for: time series analysis.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 13901

Search results for: time series analysis.

1601 Effect Comparison of Speckle Noise Reduction Filters on 2D-Echocardigraphic Images

Authors: Faten A. Dawood, Rahmita W. Rahmat, Suhaini B. Kadiman, Lili N. Abdullah, Mohd D. Zamrin

Abstract:

Echocardiography imaging is one of the most common diagnostic tests that are widely used for assessing the abnormalities of the regional heart ventricle function. The main goal of the image enhancement task in 2D-echocardiography (2DE) is to solve two major anatomical structure problems; speckle noise and low quality. Therefore, speckle noise reduction is one of the important steps that used as a pre-processing to reduce the distortion effects in 2DE image segmentation. In this paper, we present the common filters that based on some form of low-pass spatial smoothing filters such as Mean, Gaussian, and Median. The Laplacian filter was used as a high-pass sharpening filter. A comparative analysis was presented to test the effectiveness of these filters after being applied to original 2DE images of 4-chamber and 2-chamber views. Three statistical quantity measures: root mean square error (RMSE), peak signal-to-ratio (PSNR) and signal-tonoise ratio (SNR) are used to evaluate the filter performance quantitatively on the output enhanced image.

Keywords: Gaussian operator, median filter, speckle texture, peak signal-to-ratio

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1600 Online Brands: A Comparative Study of World Top Ranked Universities with Science and Technology Programs

Authors: Zullina H. Shaari, Amzairi Amar, Abdul Mutalib Embong, Hezlina Hashim

Abstract:

University websites are considered as one of the brand primary touch points for multiple stakeholders, but most of them did not have great designs to create favorable impressions. Some of the elements that web designers should carefully consider are the appearance, the content, the functionality, usability and search engine optimization. However, priority should be placed on website simplicity and negative space. In terms of content, previous research suggests that universities should include reputation, learning environment, graduate career prospects, image destination, cultural integration, and virtual tour on their websites. The study examines how top 200 world ranking science and technology-based universities present their brands online and whether the websites capture the content dimensions. Content analysis of the websites revealed that the top ranking universities captured these dimensions at varying degree. Besides, the UK-based university had better priority on website simplicity and negative space compared to the Malaysian-based university.

Keywords: Science and technology programs, top-ranked universities, online brands, university websites.

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1599 Effect of Humidity on in-Process Crystallization of Lactose during Spray Drying

Authors: Amirali Ebrahimi, T. A. G. Langrish

Abstract:

The effect of various humidities on process yields and degrees of crystallinity for spray-dried powders from spray drying of lactose with humid air in a straight-through system have been studied. It has been suggested by Williams–Landel–Ferry kinetics (WLF) that a higher particle temperature and lower glass-transition temperature would increase the crystallization rate of the particles during the spray-drying process. Freshly humidified air produced by a Buchi-B290 spray dryer as a humidifier attached to the main spray dryer decreased the particle glass-transition temperature (Tg), while allowing the particle temperature (Tp) to reach higher values by using an insulated drying chamber. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and moisture sorption analysis were used to measure the degree of crystallinity for the spray-dried lactose powders. The results showed that higher Tp-Tg, as a result of applying humid air, improved the process yield from 21 ± 4 to 26 ± 2% and crystallinity of the particles by decreasing the latent heat of crystallization from 43 ± 1 to 30 ± 11 J/g and the sorption peak height from 7.3 ± 0.7% to 6 ± 0.7%.

Keywords: Lactose, crystallization, spray drying, humid air.

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1598 Design of Liquid Crystal Based Tunable Reflectarray Antenna Using Slot Embedded Patch Element Configurations

Authors: M. Y. Ismail, M. Inam

Abstract:

This paper presents the design and analysis of Liquid Crystal (LC) based tunable reflectarray antenna with different design configurations within X-band frequency range. The effect of LC volume used for unit cell element on frequency tunability and reflection loss performance has been investigated. Moreover different slot embedded patch element configurations have been proposed for LC based tunable reflectarray antenna design with enhanced performance. The detailed fabrication and measurement procedure for different LC based unit cells has been presented. The waveguide scattering parameter measured results demonstrated that by using the circular slot embedded patch elements, the frequency tunability and dynamic phase range can be increased from 180MHz to 200MHz and 120° to 124° respectively. Furthermore the circular slot embedded patch element can be designed at 10GHz resonant frequency with a patch volume of 2.71mm3 as compared to 3.47mm3 required for rectangular patch without slot.

Keywords: Liquid crystal, Tunable reflectarray, Frequency tunability, Dynamic phase range.

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1597 Design of Liquid Crystal Based Tunable Reflectarray Antenna Using Slot Embedded Patch Element Configurations

Authors: M. Y. Ismail, M. Inam

Abstract:

This paper presents the design and analysis of Liquid Crystal (LC) based tunable reflectarray antenna with different design configurations within X-band frequency range. The effect of LC volume used for unit cell element on frequency tunability and reflection loss performance has been investigated. Moreover different slot embedded patch element configurations have been proposed for LC based tunable reflectarray antenna design with enhanced performance. The detailed fabrication and measurement procedure for different LC based unit cells has been presented. The waveguide scattering parameter measured results demonstrated that by using the circular slot embedded patch elements, the frequency tunability and dynamic phase range can be increased from 180MHz to 200MHz and 120° to 124° respectively. Furthermore the circular slot embedded patch element can be designed at 10GHz resonant frequency with a patch volume of 2.71mm3 as compared to 3.47mm3 required for rectangular patch without slot.

Keywords: Liquid crystal, Tunable reflectarray, Frequency tunability, Dynamic phase range.

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1596 Effect of Interior Brick-infill Partitions on the Progressive Collapse Potential of a RC Building: Linear Static Analysis Results

Authors: Meng-Hao Tsai, Tsuei-Chiang Huang

Abstract:

Interior brick-infill partitions are usually considered as non-structural components, and only their weight is accounted for in practical structural design. In this study, the brick-infill panels are simulated by compression struts to clarify their effect on the progressive collapse potential of an earthquake-resistant RC building. Three-dimensional finite element models are constructed for the RC building subjected to sudden column loss. Linear static analyses are conducted to investigate the variation of demand-to-capacity ratio (DCR) of beam-end moment and the axial force variation of the beams adjacent to the removed column. Study results indicate that the brick-infill effect depends on their location with respect to the removed column. As they are filled in a structural bay with a shorter span adjacent to the column-removed line, more significant reduction of DCR may be achieved. However, under certain conditions, the brick infill may increase the axial tension of the two-span beam bridging the removed column.

Keywords: Progressive collapse, brick-infill partition, compression strut.

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1595 Analysis and Design of Dual-Polarization Antennas for Wireless Communication Systems

Authors: Vladimir Veremey

Abstract:

The paper describes the design and simulation of dual-polarization antennas that use the resonance and radiating properties of the H00 mode of metal open waveguides. The proposed antennas are formed by two orthogonal slots in a finite conducting ground plane. The slots are backed by metal screens connected to the ground plane forming open waveguides. It has been shown that the antenna designs can be efficiently used in mm-wave bands. The antenna single mode operational bandwidth is higher than 10%. The antenna designs are very simple and low-cost. They allow flush installation and can be efficiently used in various communication and remote sensing devices on fast moving carriers. Mutual coupling between antennas of the proposed design is very low. Thus, multiple antenna structures with proposed antennas can be efficiently employed in multi-band and in multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) systems.

Keywords: Antenna, antenna arrays, multiple-input-multiple-output, MIMO, millimeter wave bands, slot antenna, flush installation, directivity, open waveguide, conformal antennas.

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1594 Detection of Temporal Change of Fishery and Island Activities by DNB and SAR on the South China Sea

Authors: I. Asanuma, T. Yamaguchi, J. Park, K. J. Mackin

Abstract:

Fishery lights on the surface could be detected by the Day and Night Band (DNB) of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi-NPP). The DNB covers the spectral range of 500 to 900 nm and realized a higher sensitivity. The DNB has a difficulty of identification of fishing lights from lunar lights reflected by clouds, which affects observations for the half of the month. Fishery lights and lights of the surface are identified from lunar lights reflected by clouds by a method using the DNB and the infrared band, where the detection limits are defined as a function of the brightness temperature with a difference from the maximum temperature for each level of DNB radiance and with the contrast of DNB radiance against the background radiance. Fishery boats or structures on islands could be detected by the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) on the polar orbit satellites using the reflected microwave by the surface reflecting targets. The SAR has a difficulty of tradeoff between spatial resolution and coverage while detecting the small targets like fishery boats. A distribution of fishery boats and island activities were detected by the scan-SAR narrow mode of Radarsat-2, which covers 300 km by 300 km with various combinations of polarizations. The fishing boats were detected as a single pixel of highly scattering targets with the scan-SAR narrow mode of which spatial resolution is 30 m. As the look angle dependent scattering signals exhibits the significant differences, the standard deviations of scattered signals for each look angles were taken into account as a threshold to identify the signal from fishing boats and structures on the island from background noise. It was difficult to validate the detected targets by DNB with SAR data because of time lag of observations for 6 hours between midnight by DNB and morning or evening by SAR. The temporal changes of island activities were detected as a change of mean intensity of DNB for circular area for a certain scale of activities. The increase of DNB mean intensity was corresponding to the beginning of dredging and the change of intensity indicated the ending of reclamation and following constructions of facilities.

Keywords: Day night band, fishery, SAR, South China Sea.

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1593 An In-Depth Inquiry into the Impact of Poor Teacher-Student Relationships on Chronic Absenteeism in Secondary Schools of West Java Province, Indonesia

Authors: Yenni Anggrayni

Abstract:

The lack of awareness of the significant prevalence of school absenteeism in Indonesia, which ultimately results in high rates of school dropouts, is an unresolved issue. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the root causes of chronic absenteeism qualitatively and quantitatively using the bioecological systems paradigm in secondary schools for any reason. This study used an open-ended questionnaire to collect data from 1,148 students in six West Java Province districts/cities. Univariate and stepwise multiple logistic regression analyses produced a prediction model for the components. Analysis results show that poor teacher-student relationships, bullying by peers or teachers, negative perception of education, and lack of parental involvement in learning activities are the leading causes of chronic absenteeism. Another finding is to promote home-school partnerships to improve school climate and parental involvement in learning to address chronic absenteeism.

Keywords: Bullying, chronic absenteeism, dropout of school, home-school partnerships, parental involvement.

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1592 The Relations of Volatile Compounds, Some Parameters and Consumer Preference of Commercial Fermented Milks in Thailand

Authors: Suttipong Phosuksirikul, Rawichar Chaipojjana, Arunsri Leejeerajumnean

Abstract:

The aim of research was to define the relations between volatile compounds, some parameters (pH, titratable acidity (TA), total soluble solid (TSS), lactic acid bacteria count) and consumer preference of commercial fermented milks. These relations tend to be used for controlling and developing new fermented milk product. Three leading commercial brands of fermented milks in Thailand were evaluated by consumers (n=71) using hedonic scale for four attributes (sweetness, sourness, flavour, and overall liking), volatile compounds using headspace-solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) GC-MS, pH, TA, TSS and LAB count. Then the relations were analyzed by principal component analysis (PCA). The PCA data showed that all of four attributes liking scores were related to each other. They were also related to TA, TSS and volatile compounds. The related volatile compounds were mainly on fermented produced compounds including acetic acid, furanmethanol, furfural, octanoic acid and the volatiles known as artificial fruit flavour (beta pinene, limonene, vanillin, and ethyl vanillin). These compounds were provided the information about flavour addition in commercial fermented milk in Thailand.

Keywords: Fermented milk, volatile compounds, preference, PCA.

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1591 Usage of Internet Technology in Financial Education and Financial Inclusion by Students of Economics Universities

Authors: B. Frączek

Abstract:

The paper analyses the usage of the Internet by university students in Visegrad Countries (4V Countries) who study economic fields in their formal and informal financial education and captures the areas of untapped potential of Internet in educational processes. Higher education and training, technological readiness, and the financial market development are in the group of pillars, that are key for efficiency driven economies. These three pillars have become an inspiration to the research on using the Internet in the financial education among economic university students as the group of the best educated people in finance. The financial education is a process that allows for improving the level of financial literacy. In turn, the financial literacy it is the set of financial knowledge, skills, awareness and patterns influencing the financial decisions. The level of financial literacy influences the level of financial well-being of individuals, determines the scale of saving of households and at the same time gives the greater chance for sustainable and more predictable development of the financial market with the positive impact on economy. The financial literacy is necessary for each group of society but its appropriate level is desirable especially in respect of economics students as future participants of financial markets as well as the experts and advisors in financial decision making. The low level of financial literacy is the great problem of many target groups in both developing and developed countries and the financial education is seen as the best way of improving this situation. Also the financial inclusion plays the special role in enhancing the level of financial literacy in the aspect of education by practice as well as due to interrelation between level of financial literacy and degree of financial inclusion. Despite many initiatives under financial education, the level of financial literacy is still very low. Scientists still search for new ways of solving this problem. One of the proposal is more effective usage of the new technology in financial education, especially the Internet, because of the growing popularity of e-learning and the increasing number of Internet users, especially among young people who are called the Generation Net. Due to special role of the university students studying the economics fields for the future financial markets, students of four universities from Visegrad Countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) were invited to participate in the survey. The aim of the article is to present the level and ways of using the Internet technology in financial education and indicating the so far unused or underused opportunities.

Keywords: Financial education, financial inclusion, financial literacy, usage of Internet in education.

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1590 Photoimpedance Spectroscopy Analysis of Planar and Nano-Textured Thin-Film Silicon Solar Cells

Authors: P. Kumar, D. Eisenhauer, M. M. K. Yousef, Q. Shi, A. S. G. Khalil, M. R. Saber, C. Becker, T. Pullerits, K. J. Karki

Abstract:

In impedance spectroscopy (IS) the response of a photo-active device is analysed as a function of ac bias. It is widely applied in a broad class of material systems and devices. It gives access to fundamental mechanisms of operation of solar cells. We have implemented a method of IS where we modulate the light instead of the bias. This scheme allows us to analyze not only carrier dynamics but also impedance of device locally. Here, using this scheme, we have measured the frequency-dependent photocurrent response of the thin-film planar and nano-textured Si solar cells using this method. Photocurrent response is measured in range of 50 Hz to 50 kHz. Bode and Nyquist plots are used to determine characteristic lifetime of both the cells. Interestingly, the carrier lifetime of both planar and nano-textured solar cells depend on back and front contact positions. This is due to either heterogeneity of device or contacts are not optimized. The estimated average lifetime is found to be shorter for the nano-textured cell, which could be due to the influence of the textured interface on the carrier relaxation dynamics.

Keywords: Carrier lifetime, Impedance, nano-textured, and photocurrent.

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1589 Long Term Variability of Temperature in Armenia in the Context of Climate Change

Authors: Hrachuhi Galstyan, Lucian Sfîcă, Pavel Ichim

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of thermal conditions in the Republic of Armenia. The paper describes annual fluctuations in air temperature. Research has been focused on case study region of Armenia and surrounding areas, where long–term measurements and observations of weather conditions have been performed within the National Meteorological Service of Armenia and its surrounding areas. The study contains yearly air temperature data recorded between 1961- 2012. Mann-Kendal test and the autocorrelation function were applied to detect the change trend of annual mean temperature, as well as other parametric and non-parametric tests searching to find the presence of some breaks in the long term evolution of temperature. The analysis of all records reveals a tendency mostly towards warmer years, with increased temperatures especially in valleys and inner basins. The maximum temperature increase is up to 1,5°C. Negative results have not been observed in Armenia. The patterns of temperature change have been observed since the 1990’s over much of the Armenian territory. The climate in Armenia was influenced by global change in the last 2 decades, as results from the methods employed within the study.

Keywords: Air temperature, long-term variability, trend, climate change.

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1588 Improving Cleanability by Changing Fish Processing Equipment Design

Authors: Lars A. L. Giske, Ola J. Mork, Emil Bjoerlykhaug

Abstract:

The design of fish processing equipment greatly impacts how easy the cleaning process for the equipment is. This is a critical issue in fish processing, as cleaning of fish processing equipment is a task that is both costly and time consuming, in addition to being very important with regards to product quality. Even more, poorly cleaned equipment could in the worst case lead to contaminated product from which consumers could get ill. This paper will elucidate how equipment design changes could improve the work for the cleaners and saving money for the fish processing facilities by looking at a case for product design improvements. The design of fish processing equipment largely determines how easy it is to clean. “Design for cleaning” is the new hype in the industry and equipment where the ease of cleaning is prioritized gets a competitive advantage over equipment in which design for cleaning has not been prioritized. Design for cleaning is an important research area for equipment manufacturers. SeaSide AS is doing continuously improvements in the design of their products in order to gain a competitive advantage. The focus in this paper will be conveyors for internal logistic and a product called the “electro stunner” will be studied with regards to “Design for cleaning”. Often together with SeaSide’s customers, ideas for new products or product improvements are sketched out, 3D-modelled, discussed, revised, built and delivered. Feedback from the customers is taken into consideration, and the product design is revised once again. This loop was repeated multiple times, and led to new product designs. The new designs sometimes also cause the manufacturing processes to change (as in going from bolted to welded connections). Customers report back that the concrete changes applied to products by SeaSide has resulted in overall more easily cleaned equipment. These changes include, but are not limited to; welded connections (opposed to bolted connections), gaps between contact faces, opening up structures to allow cleaning “inside” equipment, and generally avoiding areas in which humidity and water may gather and build up. This is important, as there will always be bacteria in the water which will grow if the area never dries up. The work of creating more cleanable design is still ongoing, and will “never” be finished as new designs and new equipment will have their own challenges.

Keywords: Cleaning, design, equipment, fish processing, innovation.

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1587 STLF Based on Optimized Neural Network Using PSO

Authors: H. Shayeghi, H. A. Shayanfar, G. Azimi

Abstract:

The quality of short term load forecasting can improve the efficiency of planning and operation of electric utilities. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are employed for nonlinear short term load forecasting owing to their powerful nonlinear mapping capabilities. At present, there is no systematic methodology for optimal design and training of an artificial neural network. One has often to resort to the trial and error approach. This paper describes the process of developing three layer feed-forward large neural networks for short-term load forecasting and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal networks structure design. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to develop the optimum large neural network structure and connecting weights for one-day ahead electric load forecasting problem. PSO is a novel random optimization method based on swarm intelligence, which has more powerful ability of global optimization. Employing PSO algorithms on the design and training of ANNs allows the ANN architecture and parameters to be easily optimized. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. Special days are extracted from the normal training sets and handled separately. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends and special days. The experimental results show that the proposed method optimized by PSO can quicken the learning speed of the network and improve the forecasting precision compared with the conventional Back Propagation (BP) method. Moreover, it is not only simple to calculate, but also practical and effective. Also, it provides a greater degree of accuracy in many cases and gives lower percent errors all the time for STLF problem compared to BP method. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data.

Keywords: Large Neural Network, Short-Term Load Forecasting, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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1586 Automated Transformation of 3D Point Cloud to Building Information Model: Leveraging Algorithmic Modeling for Efficient Reconstruction

Authors: Radul Shishkov, Petar Penchev

Abstract:

The digital era has revolutionized architectural practices, with Building Information Modeling (BIM) emerging as a pivotal tool for architects, engineers, and construction professionals. However, the transition from traditional methods to BIM-centric approaches poses significant challenges, particularly in the context of existing structures. This research presents a technical approach to bridge this gap through the development of algorithms that facilitate the automated transformation of 3D point cloud data into detailed BIM models. The core of this research lies in the application of algorithmic modeling and computational design methods to interpret and reconstruct point cloud data — a collection of data points in space, typically produced by 3D scanners — into comprehensive BIM models. This process involves complex stages of data cleaning, feature extraction, and geometric reconstruction, which are traditionally time-consuming and prone to human error. By automating these stages, our approach significantly enhances the efficiency and accuracy of creating BIM models for existing buildings. The proposed algorithms are designed to identify key architectural elements within point clouds, such as walls, windows, doors, and other structural components, and to translate these elements into their corresponding BIM representations. This includes the integration of parametric modeling techniques to ensure that the generated BIM models are not only geometrically accurate but also embedded with essential architectural and structural information. This research contributes significantly to the field of architectural technology by providing a scalable and efficient solution for the integration of existing structures into the BIM framework. It paves the way for more seamless and integrated workflows in renovation and heritage conservation projects, where the accuracy of existing conditions plays a critical role. The implications of this study extend beyond architectural practices, offering potential benefits in urban planning, facility management, and historical preservation.

Keywords: Algorithmic modeling, Building Information Modeling, point cloud, reconstruction.

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1585 Examination of Pre-Tender Budgeting Techniques for Mechanical and Electrical Services in Malaysia

Authors: Ganiyu Amuda Yusuf, Sarajul Fikri Mohamed

Abstract:

The procurement and cost management approach adopted for mechanical and electrical (M&E) services in Malaysian construction industry have been criticized for its inefficiency. The study examined early cost estimating practices adopted for mechanical and electrical services (M&E) in Malaysia so as to understand the level of compliance of the current techniques with best practices. The methodology adopted for the study is a review of bidding documents used on both completed and on – going building projects awarded between 2008 – 2010 under 9th Malaysian Plan. The analysis revealed that, M&E services cost cannot be reliably estimated at pre-contract stage; the bidding techniques adopted for M&E services failed to provide uniform basis for contractors to submit tender; detailed measurement of items were not made which could complicate post contract cost control and financial management. The paper concluded that, there is need to follow a structured approach in determining the pre-contract cost estimate for M&E services which will serve as a virile tool for post contract cost control.

Keywords: Cost Management, Mechanical and Electrical Services, Procurement, Standard Method of Measurement

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1584 High-Frequency Spectrum Analysis of VFTO Generated inside Gas Insulated Substations

Authors: M. A. Abd-Allah, A. Said, Ebrahim A. Badran

Abstract:

Worldwide many electrical equipment insulation failures have been reported caused by switching operations, while those equipments had previously passed all the standard tests and complied with all quality requirements. The problem is mostly associated with high-frequency overvoltages generated during opening or closing of a switching device. The transients generated during switching operations in a Gas Insulated Substation (GIS) are associated with high frequency components in the order of few tens of MHz. The frequency spectrum of the VFTO generated in the 220/66 kV Wadi-Hoff GIS is analyzed using Fast Fourier Transform technique. The main frequency with high voltage amplitude due to the operation of disconnector (DS5) is 5 to 10 MHz, with the highest amplitude at 9 MHz. The main frequency with high voltage amplitude due to the operation of circuit breaker (CB5) is 1 to 25 MHz, with the highest amplitude at 2 MHz. Mitigating techniques damped the oscillating frequencies effectively. The using of cable terminal reduced the frequency oscillation effectively than that of OHTL terminal. The using of a shunt capacitance results in vanishing the high frequency components. Ferrite rings reduces the high frequency components effectively especially in the range 2 to 7 MHz. The using of RC and RL filters results in vanishing the high frequency components.

Keywords: GIS, VFTO, Mitigation Techniques, Frequency spectrum, FFT, EMTP/ATP.

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1583 An Overview of Georgia’s Economic Growth Since 2012: Current Status, Challenges, and Opportunities for Future Development

Authors: V. Benidze

Abstract:

After the Rose Revolution of 2003, Georgia has achieved an unparalleled socioeconomic success. However, economic growth since 2012 has been sluggish and certainly not enough to rapidly improve the county’s standard of living that still remains substantially low compared to that in developed nations. Recent poor economic performance has shown that some key challenges need to be addressed if Georgia is to achieve high future economic growth that will decrease the poverty rate and create a middle class in the country. This paper offers in detail analysis of the economic performance of Georgia since 2012 and identifies key challenges facing the country’s economy. The main challenge going forward will be transforming Georgia from a consumption-driven to a production-oriented economy. It is identified that mobilizing domestic investment through savings, attracting foreign investment in tradable sectors and expanding the country’s export base will be crucial in the facilitation of the above-mentioned structural transformation. As the outcome of the research, the paper suggests a strategy for accelerating Georgia’ future economic growth and offers recommendations based on the relevant conclusions.

Keywords: Challenges, development, economic growth, economic policy, Georgia.

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1582 A Study of Panel Logit Model and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Financial Distress Periods

Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.

Keywords: ANFIS, Binary logistic regression, Financialdistress, Panel data

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1581 Cost Sensitive Feature Selection in Decision-Theoretic Rough Set Models for Customer Churn Prediction: The Case of Telecommunication Sector Customers

Authors: Emel Kızılkaya Aydogan, Mihrimah Ozmen, Yılmaz Delice

Abstract:

In recent days, there is a change and the ongoing development of the telecommunications sector in the global market. In this sector, churn analysis techniques are commonly used for analysing why some customers terminate their service subscriptions prematurely. In addition, customer churn is utmost significant in this sector since it causes to important business loss. Many companies make various researches in order to prevent losses while increasing customer loyalty. Although a large quantity of accumulated data is available in this sector, their usefulness is limited by data quality and relevance. In this paper, a cost-sensitive feature selection framework is developed aiming to obtain the feature reducts to predict customer churn. The framework is a cost based optional pre-processing stage to remove redundant features for churn management. In addition, this cost-based feature selection algorithm is applied in a telecommunication company in Turkey and the results obtained with this algorithm.

Keywords: Churn prediction, data mining, decision-theoretic rough set, feature selection.

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1580 Clash of Civilizations without Civilizational Groups: Revisiting Samuel P. Huntington´s Clash of Civilizations Theory

Authors: Jamal Abdi

Abstract:

This paper is largely a response/critique of Samuel P. Huntington´s Clash of Civilizations thesis. The overriding argument is that Huntington´s thesis is characterized by failure to distinguish between ´groups´ and ´categories´. Multinational civilizations overcoming their internal collective action problems, which would enable them to pursue a unified strategy vis-à-vis the West, is a rather foundational assumption in his theory. Without assigning sufficient intellectual attention to the processes through which multinational civilizations may gain capacity for concerted action i.e. become a group, he contended that the post-cold-war world would be shaped in large measure by interactions among seven or eight major civilizations. Thus, failure in providing a convincing analysis of multi-national civilizations´ transition from categories to groups is a significant weakness in Huntington´s clash theory. It is also suggested that so-called Islamic terrorism and the war on terror is not to be taken as an expression of presence of clash between a Western and an Islamic civilization, as terrorist organizations would be superfluous in a world characterized by clash of civilizations. Consequences of multinational civilizations becoming a group are discussed in relation to contemporary Western superiority.

Keywords: Clash of civilizations, groups, categories, groupism.

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1579 Studying the Effect of Climate Change on the Conditions of Isfahan-s Province Tourism

Authors: A.Gandomkar, F. Khorasanizadeh

Abstract:

Tourism is a phenomenon respected by the human communities since a long time ago. It has been evoloving continually based on a variety of social and economic needs and with respect to increasingly development of communication and considerable increase of tourist-s number and resulted exchange income has attained much out come such as employment for the communities. or the purpose of tourism development in this zone suitable times and locations need to be specified in the zone for the tourist-s attendance. One of the most important needs of the tourists is the knowledge of climate conditions and suitable times for sightseeing. In this survey, the climate trend condition has been identified for attending the tourists in Isfahan province using the modified tourism climate index (TCI) as well as SPSS, GIS, excel, surfer softwares. This index evoluates systematically the climate conditions for tourism affairs and activities using the monthly maximum mean parameters of daily temperature, daily mean temperature, minimum relative humidity, daily mean relative humidity, precipitation (mm), total sunny hours, wind speed and dust. The results obtaind using kendal-s correlation test show that the months January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November and December are significant and have an increasing trend that indicates the best condition for attending the tourists. S, P, T mean , T max and dust are estimated from 1976-2005 and do kendal-s correlation test again to see which parameter has been effective. Based on the test, we also observed on the effective parameters that the rate of dust in February, March, April, May, June, July, August, October and November is decreasing and precipitation in September and January is increasing and also the radiation rate in May and August is increasing that indicate a better condition of convenience. Maximum temperature in June is also decreasing. Isfahan province has two spring and fall peaks and the best places for tourism are in the north and western areas.

Keywords: Climate, Tourism, Correlation Test, Tourism Climate Index, Isfahan Province

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1578 Implementation of State-Space and Super-Element Techniques for the Modeling and Control of Smart Structures with Damping Characteristics

Authors: Nader Ghareeb, R¨udiger Schmidt

Abstract:

Minimizing the weight in flexible structures means reducing material and costs as well. However, these structures could become prone to vibrations. Attenuating these vibrations has become a pivotal engineering problem that shifted the focus of many research endeavors. One technique to do that is to design and implement an active control system. This system is mainly composed of a vibrating structure, a sensor to perceive the vibrations, an actuator to counteract the influence of disturbances, and finally a controller to generate the appropriate control signals. In this work, two different techniques are explored to create two different mathematical models of an active control system. The first model is a finite element model with a reduced number of nodes and it is called a super-element. The second model is in the form of state-space representation, i.e. a set of partial differential equations. The damping coefficients are calculated and incorporated into both models. The effectiveness of these models is demonstrated when the system is excited by its first natural frequency and an active control strategy is developed and implemented to attenuate the resulting vibrations. Results from both modeling techniques are presented and compared.

Keywords: Finite element analysis, super-element, state-space model.

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1577 Comparative Analysis of Commercial Property and Stock-Market Investments in Nigeria

Authors: Bello Nurudeen Akinsola

Abstract:

The study analyzed the risk and returns of commercial-property in Southwestern Nigeria and selected stocksmarket investment between 2000 and 2009; compared the inflation hedging characteristics and diversification potentials of investing in commercial-property and selected stock- market investment. Primary data were collected on characteristics, rental and capital values of commercial- properties from their property managers through the use of questionnaire. Secondary data on stock prices and dividends on banking, insurance and conglomerates sectors were sourced from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (2000-2009). The result showed that average return on all the selected stock- investments was higher than that of commercial-property. As regards risk, commercial-property indicated lower risk, compared to stocks. Also the stock-investment had better inflation hedging capacity than commercial-properties; combination of both had diversification potentials. The study concluded that stock-market investment offered attractive higher return than commercial-property although with higher risk and there could be diversification benefits in combining commercial-property with stock- investment.

Keywords: Commercial-Property, Return, Risk, Stock Market

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1576 Modified Genome-Scale Metabolic Model of Escherichia coli by Adding Hyaluronic Acid Biosynthesis-Related Enzymes (GLMU2 and HYAD) from Pasteurella multocida

Authors: P. Pasomboon, P. Chumnanpuen, T. E-kobon

Abstract:

Hyaluronic acid (HA) consists of linear heteropolysaccharides repeat of D-glucuronic acid and N-acetyl-D-glucosamine. HA has various useful properties to maintain skin elasticity and moisture, reduce inflammation, and lubricate the movement of various body parts without causing immunogenic allergy. HA can be found in several animal tissues as well as in the capsule component of some bacteria including Pasteurella multocida. This study aimed to modify a genome-scale metabolic model of Escherichia coli using computational simulation and flux analysis methods to predict HA productivity under different carbon sources and nitrogen supplement by the addition of two enzymes (GLMU2 and HYAD) from P. multocida to improve the HA production under the specified amount of carbon sources and nitrogen supplements. Result revealed that threonine and aspartate supplement raised the HA production by 12.186%. Our analyses proposed the genome-scale metabolic model is useful for improving the HA production and narrows the number of conditions to be tested further.

Keywords: Pasteurella multocida, Escherichia coli, hyaluronic acid, genome-scale metabolic model, bioinformatics.

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1575 An Investigation on Overstrength Factor (Ω) of Reinforced Concrete Buildings in Turkish Earthquake Draft Code (TEC-2016)

Authors: M. Hakan Arslan, I. Hakkı Erkan

Abstract:

Overstrength factor is an important parameter of load reduction factor. In this research, the overstrength factor (Ω) of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings and the parameters of Ω in TEC-2016 draft version have been explored. For this aim, 48 RC buildings have been modeled according to the current seismic code TEC-2007 and Turkish Building Code-500-2000 criteria. After modelling step, nonlinear static pushover analyses have been applied to these buildings by using TEC-2007 Section 7. After the nonlinear pushover analyses, capacity curves (lateral load-lateral top displacement curves) have been plotted for 48 RC buildings. Using capacity curves, overstrength factors (Ω) have been derived for each building. The obtained overstrength factor (Ω) values have been compared with TEC-2016 values for related building types, and the results have been interpreted. According to the obtained values from the study, overstrength factor (Ω) given in TEC-2016 draft code is found quite suitable.

Keywords: Reinforced concrete buildings, overstrength factor, earthquake, static pushover analysis.

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1574 Clubs Forming on Crazyvote -The Blurred Social Boundary Between Online Communities and the Real World

Authors: Ko-Hsun Huang, Hsiao-Chen You, Yi-Shin Deng

Abstract:

With the rapid growth and development of information and communication technology, the Internet has played a definite and irreplaceable role in people-s social lives in Taiwan like in other countries. In July 2008, on a general social website, an unexpected phenomenon was noticed – that there were more than one hundred users who started forming clubs voluntarily and having face-to-face gatherings for specific purposes. In this study, it-s argued whether or not teenagers- social contact on the Internet is involved in their life context, and tried to reveal the teenagers- social preferences, values, and needs, which merge with and influence teenagers- social activities. Therefore, the study conducts multiple user experience research methods, which include practical observations and qualitative analysis by contextual inquiries and in-depth interviews. Based on the findings, several design implications for software related to social interactions and cultural inheritance are offered. It is concluded that the inherent values of a social behaviors might be a key issue in developing computer-mediated communication or interaction designs in the future.

Keywords: Social Computing, Social Interaction, User-centered Design, Contextual Inquiry.

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1573 River Flow Prediction Using Nonlinear Prediction Method

Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential to ensure proper management of water resources can be optimally distribute water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method involving monthly river flow data in Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The phase space reconstruction involves the reconstruction of one-dimensional (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. Revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) have been employed to compare prediction performance for nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show the prediction results using nonlinear prediction method is better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the result of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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1572 Global Kinetics of Direct Dimethyl Ether Synthesis Process from Syngas in Slurry Reactor over a Novel Cu-Zn-Al-Zr Slurry Catalyst

Authors: Zhen Chen, Haitao Zhang, Weiyong Ying, Dingye Fang

Abstract:

The direct synthesis process of dimethyl ether (DME) from syngas in slurry reactors is considered to be promising because of its advantages in caloric transfer. In this paper, the influences of operating conditions (temperature, pressure and weight hourly space velocity) on the conversion of CO, selectivity of DME and methanol were studied in a stirred autoclave over Cu-Zn-Al-Zr slurry catalyst, which is far more suitable to liquid phase dimethyl ether synthesis process than bifunctional catalyst commercially. A Langmuir- Hinshelwood mechanism type global kinetics model for liquid phase DME direct synthesis based on methanol synthesis models and a methanol dehydration model has been investigated by fitting our experimental data. The model parameters were estimated with MATLAB program based on general Genetic Algorithms and Levenberg-Marquardt method, which is suitably fitting experimental data and its reliability was verified by statistical test and residual error analysis.

Keywords: alcohol/ether fuel, Cu-Zn-Al-Zr slurry catalyst, global kinetics, slurry reactor

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