Search results for: Control theory

Authors: M. Tahar Bouzaher

Abstract:

This numerical study aims to develop a coupled, passive and active control strategy of the flow around a cylinder of diameter D, and Re=4000. The strategy consists to put a cylindrical rod in front of a deforming cylinder. The quasi- elliptical deformation of cylinder follow a sinusoidal law in order to reduce the drag force. To analyze the evolution of unsteady vortices, the Large Eddy Simulation approach is used in this 2D simulation, carried out using ANSYS – Fluent. The movement of deformation is reproduced using an internal subroutine, introduced in the form of a User Defined Function UDF. Two diameters of the rod were tested for a rod placed at a distance L = 3 ×d, with an amplitudes of deformation A = 5%, A = 25% and A = 50% of the cylinder diameter, the frequency of deformation take the values fd = 1fn, 5fn and 8fn, which fn represents the naturel vortex shedding frequency. The results show substantial changes in the flow behavior and for a rod of 6mm (1% D) with amplitude A = 25%, and with a 2fn frequency, drag reduction of 60% was recorded.

Keywords: CFD, Flow separation, control, Boundary layer, rod, Cylinder.

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Authors: Renáta Iváncsy, István Vajk

Abstract:

The various types of frequent pattern discovery problem, namely, the frequent itemset, sequence and graph mining problems are solved in different ways which are, however, in certain aspects similar. The main approach of discovering such patterns can be classified into two main classes, namely, in the class of the levelwise methods and in that of the database projection-based methods. The level-wise algorithms use in general clever indexing structures for discovering the patterns. In this paper a new approach is proposed for discovering frequent sequences and tree-like patterns efficiently that is based on the level-wise issue. Because the level-wise algorithms spend a lot of time for the subpattern testing problem, the new approach introduces the idea of using automaton theory to solve this problem.

Keywords: Frequent pattern discovery, graph mining, pushdownautomaton, sequence mining, state machine, tree mining.

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Authors: Marios Poulos, Sozon Papavlasopoulos, V. S. Belesiotis

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In the proposed method for Web page-ranking, a novel theoretic model is introduced and tested by examples of order relationships among IP addresses. Ranking is induced using a convexity feature, which is learned according to these examples using a self-organizing procedure. We consider the problem of selforganizing learning from IP data to be represented by a semi-random convex polygon procedure, in which the vertices correspond to IP addresses. Based on recent developments in our regularization theory for convex polygons and corresponding Euclidean distance based methods for classification, we develop an algorithmic framework for learning ranking functions based on a Computational Geometric Theory. We show that our algorithm is generic, and present experimental results explaining the potential of our approach. In addition, we explain the generality of our approach by showing its possible use as a visualization tool for data obtained from diverse domains, such as Public Administration and Education.

Keywords: Computational Geometry, Education, e-Governance, Semantic Web.

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Authors: Mahmoud Shaker, Ala'a Imran

Abstract:

Greenhouse is a building, which provides controlled climate conditions to the plants to keep them from external hard conditions. Greenhouse technology gives freedom to the farmer to select any crop type in any time during year. The quality and productivity of plants inside greenhouse is highly dependent on the management quality and a good management scheme is defined by the quality of the information collected from the greenhouse environment. Therefore, Continuous monitoring of environmental variables such as temperature, humidity, and soil moisture gives information to the grower to better understand, how each factor affects growth and how to manage maximal crop productiveness. In this piper, we designed and implemented climate monitoring with irrigation control system based on Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) technology. The designed system is characterized with friendly to use, easy to install by any greenhouse user, multi-sensing nodes, multi-PAN ID, low cast, water irrigation control and low operation complexity. The system consists of two node types (sensing and control) with star topology on one PAN ID. Moreover, greenhouse manager can modifying system parameters such as (sensing node addresses, irrigation upper and lower control limits) by updating corresponding data in SDRAM memory. In addition, the designed system uses 2*16 characters. LCD to display the micro climate parameters values of each plants row inside the greenhouse.

Keywords: ZigBee, WSN, Arduino platform, Greenhouse automation, micro climate monitoring, smart Irrigation control.

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Authors: Andrus Pedai, Igor Astrov

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In modern telecommunications industry, demand & supply chain management (DSCM) needs reliable design and versatile tools to control the material flow. The objective for efficient DSCM is reducing inventory, lead times and related costs in order to assure reliable and on-time deliveries from manufacturing units towards customers. In this paper the multi-rate expert system based methodology for developing simulation tools that would enable optimal DSCM for multi region, high volume and high complexity manufacturing environment was proposed.

Keywords: Demand & supply chain management, expert systems, inventory control, multi-rate control, performance metrics.

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Authors: T. Zergoug, S.H. Abaidia, A. Nedjar, M. Y. Mokeddem

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Physical properties of uranium dinitride (UN2) were investigated in detail using first principle calculations based on density functional theory (DFT). To study the strong correlation effects due to 5f uranium valence electrons, the on-site coulomb interaction correction U via the Hubbard-like term (DFT+U) was employed. The UN2 structural, mechanical and thermodynamic properties were calculated within DFT and Various U of DFT+U approach. The Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof (PBE.5.2) version of the generalized gradient approximation (GGA) is used to describe the exchange-correlation with the projector-augmented wave (PAW) pseudo potentials. A comparative study shows that results are improved by using the Hubbard formalism for a certain U value correction like the structural parameter. For some physical properties the variation versus Hubbard-U is strong like Young modulus but for others it is weakly noticeable such as bulk modulus. We noticed also that from U=7.5 eV, elastic results don’t agree with the cubic cell because of the C44 values which turn out to be negative.

Keywords: Ab initio, bulk modulus, DFT, DFT + U.

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Authors: Mehdi Nasri, Hossein Nezamabadi-pour, Malihe Maghfoori

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This Paper presents a particle swarm optimization (PSO) method for determining the optimal proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller parameters, for speed control of a linear brushless DC motor. The proposed approach has superior features, including easy implementation, stable convergence characteristic and good computational efficiency. The brushless DC motor is modelled in Simulink and the PSO algorithm is implemented in MATLAB. Comparing with Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Linear quadratic regulator (LQR) method, the proposed method was more efficient in improving the step response characteristics such as, reducing the steady-states error; rise time, settling time and maximum overshoot in speed control of a linear brushless DC motor.

Keywords: Brushless DC motor, Particle swarm optimization, PID Controller, Optimal control.

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Authors: Anomi Bearden, Brooke Goodyear, Alicia Khan

Abstract:

This repeated-measures experiment explored the effects of six weeks of gratitude practice on college students (N = 67) on relationship satisfaction and perceived superiority. Replicating previous research on gratitude practice, it was hypothesized that after consistent gratitude practice, participants in the experimental group (n = 32) would feel increased levels of relationship satisfaction compared to the control group (n = 35). Of particular interest was whether the level of perceived superiority would moderate the effect of gratitude practice on relationship satisfaction. The gratitude group evidenced significantly higher appreciation and marginally higher relationship satisfaction at post-test than the control group (both groups being equal at pre-test). Significant enhancements in gratitude, satisfaction, and feeling both appreciative and appreciated were found in the gratitude group, as well as significant enhancements in gratitude, satisfaction, and feeling appreciated in the control group. Appreciation for one’s partner was the only measure that improved in the gratitude group and not the control group from pre-test to post-test. Perceived superiority did not change significantly from pre-test to post-test in either group, supporting the prevalence and stability of this bias within people’s overall perceptions of their relationships.

Keywords: Gratitude, relationship satisfaction, perceived superiority, partner appreciation.

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Authors: Bakhtiar Ul Haq, R. Ahmed, A. Shaari, Mazmira Binti Mohamed, Nisar Ali

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The capability of exploiting the electronic charge and spin properties simultaneously in a single material has made diluted magnetic semiconductors (DMS) remarkable in the field of spintronics. We report the designing of DMS based on zinc-blend ZnO doped with Cr impurity. The full potential linearized augmented plane wave plus local orbital FP-L(APW+lo) method in density functional theory (DFT) has been adapted to carry out these investigations. For treatment of exchange and correlation energy, generalized gradient approximations have been used. Introducing Cr atoms in the matrix of ZnO has induced strong magnetic moment with ferromagnetic ordering at stable ground state. Cr:ZnO was found to favor the short range magnetic interaction that reflect tendency of Cr clustering. The electronic structure of ZnO is strongly influenced in the presence of Cr impurity atoms where impurity bands appear in the band gap.

Keywords: ZnO, Density functional theory, Diluted magnetic semiconductors, Ferromagnetic materials, FP-L(APW+lo).

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Authors: Anuj Kumar Sharma, Amit Sharma, Kulbhushan Agnihotri

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In this paper, a delayed plankton-nutrient interaction model consisting of phytoplankton, zooplankton and dissolved nutrient is considered. It is assumed that some species of phytoplankton releases toxin (known as toxin producing phytoplankton (TPP)) which is harmful for zooplankton growth and this toxin releasing process follows a discrete time variation. Using delay as bifurcation parameter, the stability of interior equilibrium point is investigated and it is shown that time delay can destabilize the otherwise stable non-zero equilibrium state by inducing Hopf-bifurcation when it crosses a certain threshold value. Explicit results are derived for stability and direction of the bifurcating periodic solution by using normal form theory and center manifold arguments. Finally, outcomes of the system are validated through numerical simulations.

Keywords: Plankton, Time delay, Hopf-bifurcation, Normal form theory, Center manifold theorem.

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Authors: Ibrahim F. Jasim, Najah F. Jasim

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The problem of controlling a two link robotic manipulator, consisting of a rotating and a prismatic links, is addressed. The actuations of both links are assumed to have unknown dead zone nonlinearities and friction torques modeled by LuGre friction model. Because of the existence of the unknown dead zone and friction torque at the actuations, unknown parameters and unmeasured states would appear to be part of the overall system dynamics that need for estimation. Unmeasured states observer, unknown parameters estimators, and robust adaptive control laws have been derived such that closed loop global stability is achieved. Simulation results have been performed to show the efficacy of the suggested approach.

Keywords: Adaptive Robust Control, Dead Zone, Friction Torques, Robotic Manipulators.

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Authors: Nadia Bensiali, Erik Etien, Amar Omeiri, Gerard Champenois

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Adaptive observers used in sensorless control of induction motors suffer from instability especally in regenerating mode. In this paper, an optimal feed back gain design is proposed, it can reduce the instability region in the torque speed plane .

Keywords: Induction motor drive, adaptive observer, regenerating mode, stabilizing design.

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Authors: A. Iqbal, N. Khalid, S. Rafiq

Abstract:

The interrelationship between international stock markets has been a key study area among the financial market researchers for international portfolio management and risk measurement. The characteristics of security returns and their dynamics play a vital role in the financial market theory. This study is an attempt to find out the dynamic linkages among the equity market of USA and emerging markets of Pakistan and India using daily data covering the period of January 2003–December 2009. The study utilizes Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 1988) and Johansen and Juselius (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 1990) cointegration procedure for long run relationship and Granger-causality tests based on Toda and Yamamoto (Journal of Econometrics, 66, 1995) methodology. No cointegration was found among stock markets of USA, Pakistan and India, while Granger-causality test showed the evidence of unidirectional causality running from New York stock exchange to Bombay and Karachi stock exchanges.

Keywords: Causality, Cointegration, India, Pakistan, Stock Markets, US.

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Authors: Indrasen Raghupatruni, Michael Glora, Ralf Diekmann, Thomas Demmer

Abstract:

As the trend in automotive technology is fast moving towards hybridization and electrification to curb emissions as well as to improve the fuel efficiency, air-conditioning systems in passenger cars have not caught up with this trend and still remain as the major energy consumers amongst others. Adsorption based air-conditioning systems, e.g. with silica-gel water pair, which are already in use for residential and commercial applications, are now being considered as a technology leap once proven feasible for the passenger cars. In this paper we discuss a methodology, challenges and feasibility of implementing an adsorption based air-conditioning system in a passenger car utilizing the exhaust waste heat. We also propose an optimized control strategy with interfaces to the engine control unit of the vehicle for operating this system with reasonable efficiency supported by our simulation and validation results in a prototype vehicle, additionally comparing to existing implementations, simulation based as well as experimental. Finally we discuss the influence of start-stop and hybrid systems on the operation strategy of the adsorption air-conditioning system.

Keywords: Adsorption air-conditioning, feasibility study, optimized control strategy, prototype vehicle.

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Authors: B. Selma, S. Chouraqui

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The pancreas is an elongated organ that extends across the abdomen, below the stomach. In addition, it secretes certain enzymes that aid in food digestion. The pancreas also manufactures hormones responsible for regulating blood glucose levels. In the present paper, we propose a mathematical model to study the homeostasis of glucose and insulin in healthy human, and a simulation of this model, which depicts the physiological events after a meal, will be represented in ordinary humans. The aim of this paper is to design an algorithm which regulates the level of glucose in the blood. The algorithm applied the concept of expert system for performing an algorithm control in the form of an "active" used to prescribe the rate of insulin infusion. By decomposing the system into subsystems, we have developed parametric models of each subsystem by using a forcing function strategy. The results showed a performance of the control system.

Keywords: Modeling, algorithm, regulation, glucose-insulin, blood, control system.

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Authors: Roslina Ibrahim, Azizah Jaafar

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Educational games (EG) seem to have lots of potential due to digital games popularity and preferences of our younger generations of learners. However, most studies focus on game design and its effectiveness while little has been known about the factors that can affect users to accept or to reject EG for their learning. User acceptance research try to understand the determinants of information systems (IS) adoption among users by investigating both systems factors and users factors. Upon the lack of knowledge on acceptance factors for educational games, we seek to understand the issue. This study proposed a model of acceptance factors based on Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT). We use original model (performance expectancy, effort expectancy and social influence) together with two new determinants (learning opportunities and enjoyment). We will also investigate the effect of gender and gaming experience that moderate the proposed factors.

Keywords: educational games, games acceptance, user acceptance model, UTAUT

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Authors: A. Jawahar

Abstract:

In this paper, the dependence of soliton pulses with respect to phase in a 10Gbps, single channel, dispersion uncompensated telecommunication system was studied. The characteristic feature of periodic soliton interaction was noted at the Interaction point (I=6202.5Km) in one collision length of L=12405.1 Km. The interaction point is located for 10Gbps system with an initial relative spacing (qo) of soliton as 5.28 using Perturbation theory. It is shown that, when two in-phase solitons are launched, they interact at the point I=6202.5 Km, but the interaction could be restricted with introduction of different phase initially. When the phase of the input solitons increases, the deviation of soliton pulses at the ‘I’ also increases. We have successfully demonstrated this effect in a telecommunication set-up in terms of Quality factor (Q), where the Q=0 for in-phase soliton. The Q was noted to be 125.9, 38.63, 47.53, 59.60, 161.37, and 78.04 for different phases such as 10o, 20o, 30o, 45o, 60o and 90o degrees respectively at Interaction point (I).

Keywords: Soliton interaction, Initial relative spacing, phase, Perturbation theory and telecommunication system.

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Authors: Chengjie Wang, Li Yin, Chuanmin Wang

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This paper presents a physics-based model for the high-voltage fast recovery diodes. The model provides a good trade-off between reverse recovery time and forward voltage drop realized through a combination of lifetime control and emitter efficiency reduction techniques. The minority carrier lifetime can be extracted from the reverse recovery transient response and forward characteristics. This paper also shows that decreasing the amount of the excess carriers stored in the drift region will result in softer characteristics which can be achieved using a lower doping level. The developed model is verified by experiment and the measurement data agrees well with the model.

Keywords: Emitter efficiency, lifetime control, P-i-N diode, physics-based model

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Authors: HaeNa Lee, Sun K. Yoo

Abstract:

Volume rendering is widely used in medical CT image visualization. Applying 3D image visualization to diagnosis application can require accurate volume rendering with high resolution. Interpolation is important in medical image processing applications such as image compression or volume resampling. However, it can distort the original image data because of edge blurring or blocking effects when image enhancement procedures were applied. In this paper, we proposed adaptive tension control method exploiting gradient information to achieve high resolution medical image enhancement in volume visualization, where restored images are similar to original images as much as possible. The experimental results show that the proposed method can improve image quality associated with the adaptive tension control efficacy.

Keywords: Tension control, Interpolation, Ray-casting, Medical imaging analysis.

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Authors: P. Karimi, A. H. Khedmati Bazkiaei

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The main goal of this study is to test differential neural network as a controller of smart structure and is to enumerate its advantages and disadvantages in comparison with other controllers. In this study, the smart structure has been considered as a Euler Bernoulli cantilever beam and it has been tried that it be under control with the use of vibration neural network resulting from movement. Also, a linear observer has been considered as a reference controller and has been compared its results. The considered vibration charts and the controlled state have been recounted in the final part of this text. The obtained result show that neural observer has better performance in comparison to the implemented linear observer.

Keywords: Smart material, on-line differential artificial neural network, active control, finite element method.

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Authors: A. Ruimi, S. Goyal, B. M. Nour

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Interactive web-based computer simulations are needed by the medical community to replicate the experience of surgical procedures as closely and realistically as possible without the need to practice on corpses, animals and/or plastic models. In this paper, we offer a review on current state of the research on simulations of surgical threads, identify future needs and present our proposed plans to meet them. Our goal is to create a physics-based simulator, which will predict the behavior of surgical thread when subjected to conditions commonly encountered during surgery. To that end, we will i) develop three dimensional finite element models based on the Cosserat theory of elasticity ii) test and feedback results with the medical community and iii) develop a web-based user interface to run/command our simulator and visualize the results. The impacts of our research are that i) it will contribute to the development of a new generation of training for medical school students and ii) the simulator will be useful to expert surgeons in developing new, better and less risky procedures.

Keywords: Cosserat rod-theory, FEM simulations, Modeling, Surgical thread.

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Authors: Ali Al-Zughaibi, Huw Davies

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The purpose of this paper is to present a modeling and control of a quarter-car active suspension system with unknown mass, unknown time-delay and road disturbance. The objective of designing the controller is to derive a control law to achieve stability of the system and convergence that can considerably improve ride comfort and road disturbance handling. This is accomplished by using Routh-Hurwitz criterion based on defined parameters. Mathematical proof is given to show the ability of the designed controller to ensure the target of design, implementation with the active suspension system and enhancement dispersion oscillation of the system despite these problems. Simulations were also performed to control quarter car suspension, where the results obtained from these simulations verify the validity of the proposed design.

Keywords: Active suspension system, disturbance rejection, dynamic uncertainty, time-delay.

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Authors: Patil Ashwini, Archana Thosar

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This paper addresses the mathematical model of wind energy system useful for designing fault tolerant control. To serve the demand of power, large capacity wind energy systems are vital. These systems are installed offshore where non planned service is very costly. Whenever there is a fault in between two planned services, the system may stop working abruptly. This might even lead to the complete failure of the system. To enhance the reliability, the availability and reduce the cost of maintenance of wind turbines, the fault tolerant control systems are very essential. For designing any control system, an appropriate mathematical model is always needed. In this paper, the two-mass model is modified by considering the frequent mechanical faults like misalignments in the drive train, gears and bearings faults. These faults are subject to a wear process and cause frictional losses. This paper addresses these faults in the mathematics of the wind energy system. Further, the work is extended to study the variations of the parameters namely generator inertia constant, spring constant, viscous friction coefficient and gear ratio; on the pole-zero plot which is related with the physical design of the wind turbine. Behavior of the wind turbine during drive train faults are simulated and briefly discussed.

Keywords: Mathematical model of wind energy system, stability analysis, shaft stiffness, viscous friction coefficient, gear ratio, generator inertia, fault tolerant control.

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Authors: Hazly Amir, Roime Puniran

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This paper will present the implementation of QoS policy based system by utilizing rules on Access Control List (ACL) over Layer 3 (L3) switch. Also presented is the architecture on that implementation; the tools being used and the result were gathered. The system architecture has an ability to control ACL rules which are installed inside an external L3 switch. ACL rules used to instruct the way of access control being executed, in order to entertain all traffics through that particular switch. The main advantage of using this approach is that the single point of failure could be prevented when there are any changes on ACL rules inside L3 switches. Another advantage is that the agent could instruct ACL rules automatically straight away based on the changes occur on policy database without configuring them one by one. Other than that, when QoS policy based system was implemented in distributed environment, the monitoring process can be synchronized easily due to the automate process running by agent over external policy devices.

Keywords: QOS, ACL, L3 Switch.

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Authors: Xu Tao, Yilun Xu, Dingwei Xiang, Yaofei Sun

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The practice of urban planning and construction based on the concept of the “low carbon eco-city” has been universally accepted by the academic community in response to urban issues such as population, resources, environment, and social development. Based on this, the current article first analyzes the concepts of low carbon eco-city, then builds a complex adaptive system (CAS) theory based on Chinese traditional philosophical thinking, and analyzes the adaptive relationship between material and non-material elements. A three-dimensional evaluation model of natural ecology, economic low carbon, and social harmony was constructed. Finally, the construction of a low carbon eco-city index system in Hexi Newtown of Nanjing was used as an example to verify the effectiveness of the research results; this paradigm provides a new way to achieve a low carbon eco-city system.

Keywords: Complex adaptive system, low carbon ecology, index system, model.

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Authors: Muhibul Haque Bhuyan

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In the current context, the engineering program educators need to think about how to develop the concepts and complex engineering problem-solving skills through various complex engineering activities by the undergraduate engineering students in various engineering courses. But most of them are facing challenges to assess and evaluate these skills of their students. In this study, detailed assessment and evaluation methods for the undergraduate Electrical and Electronic Engineering (EEE) program are stated using the Outcome-Based Education (OBE) approach. For this purpose, a final year course titled control systems has been selected. The assessment and evaluation approach, course contents, course objectives, course outcomes (COs), and their mapping to the program outcomes (POs) with complex engineering problems and activities via the knowledge profiles, performance indicators, rubrics of assessment, CO and PO attainment data, and other statistics, are reported for a student-cohort of control systems course registered by the students of BSc in EEE program in Spring 2021 Semester at the EEE Department of Southeast University (SEU). It is found that the target benchmark was achieved by the students of that course. Several recommendations for the continuous quality improvement (CQI) process are also provided.

Keywords: Complex engineering problem, knowledge profiles, OBE, control systems course, COs, PIs, POs, assessment rubrics.

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Authors: Samson Henry Dogo, Allan Clark, Elena Kulinskaya

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The objective of meta-analysis is to combine results from several independent studies in order to create generalization and provide evidence base for decision making. But recent studies show that the magnitude of effect size estimates reported in many areas of research significantly changed over time and this can impair the results and conclusions of meta-analysis. A number of sequential methods have been proposed for monitoring the effect size estimates in meta-analysis. However they are based on statistical theory applicable only to fixed effect model (FEM) of meta-analysis. For random-effects model (REM), the analysis incorporates the heterogeneity variance, τ 2 and its estimation create complications. In this paper we study the use of a truncated CUSUM-type test with asymptotically valid critical values for sequential monitoring in REM. Simulation results show that the test does not control the Type I error well, and is not recommended. Further work required to derive an appropriate test in this important area of applications.

Keywords: Meta-analysis, random-effects model, sequential testing, temporal changes in effect sizes.

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Authors: Wang Lin, Li Zhiqiang

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the cooperative learning behavior pattern based on the data of students' movement. The study firstly reviewed the cooperative learning theory and its research status, and briefly introduced the k-means clustering algorithm. Then, it used clustering algorithm and mathematical statistics theory to analyze the activity rhythm of individual student and groups in different functional areas, according to the movement data provided by 10 first-year graduate students. It also focused on the analysis of students' behavior in the learning area and explored the law of cooperative learning behavior. The research result showed that the cooperative learning behavior analysis method based on movement data proposed in this paper is feasible. From the results of data analysis, the characteristics of behavior of students and their cooperative learning behavior patterns could be found.

Keywords: Behavior pattern, cooperative learning, data analyze, K-means clustering algorithm.

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Authors: B. Dora Arul Selvi, .N. Kamaraj

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Transient Stability is an important issue in power systems planning, operation and extension. The objective of transient stability analysis problem is not satisfied with mere transient instability detection or evaluation and it is most important to complement it by defining fast and efficient control measures in order to ensure system security. This paper presents a new Fuzzy Support Vector Machines (FSVM) to investigate the stability status of power systems and a modified generation rescheduling scheme to bring back the identified unstable cases to a more economical and stable operating point. FSVM improves the traditional SVM (Support Vector Machines) by adding fuzzy membership to each training sample to indicate the degree of membership of this sample to different classes. The preventive control based on economic generator rescheduling avoids the instability of the power systems with minimum change in operating cost under disturbed conditions. Numerical results on the New England 39 bus test system show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Fuzzy Support Vector Machine (FSVM), Incremental Cost, Preventive Control, Transient stability

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Authors: Meredith Stevenson, John E. Porter

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Since the pioneering work of Zadeh, fuzzy set theory has been applied to a myriad of areas. Song and Chissom introduced the concept of fuzzy time series and applied some methods to the enrollments of the University of Alabama. In recent years, a number of techniques have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy set theory methods. These methods have either used enrollment numbers or differences of enrollments as the universe of discourse. We propose using the year to year percentage change as the universe of discourse. In this communication, the approach of Jilani, Burney, and Ardil is modified by using the year to year percentage change as the universe of discourse. We use enrollment figures for the University of Alabama to illustrate our proposed method. The proposed method results in better forecasting accuracy than existing models.

Keywords: Fuzzy forecasting, fuzzy time series, fuzzified enrollments, time-invariant model

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