Search results for: average intensity
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1849

Search results for: average intensity

709 Hot-Spot Blob Merging for Real-Time Image Segmentation

Authors: K. Kraus, M. Uiberacker, O. Martikainen, R. Reda

Abstract:

One of the major, difficult tasks in automated video surveillance is the segmentation of relevant objects in the scene. Current implementations often yield inconsistent results on average from frame to frame when trying to differentiate partly occluding objects. This paper presents an efficient block-based segmentation algorithm which is capable of separating partly occluding objects and detecting shadows. It has been proven to perform in real time with a maximum duration of 47.48 ms per frame (for 8x8 blocks on a 720x576 image) with a true positive rate of 89.2%. The flexible structure of the algorithm enables adaptations and improvements with little effort. Most of the parameters correspond to relative differences between quantities extracted from the image and should therefore not depend on scene and lighting conditions. Thus presenting a performance oriented segmentation algorithm which is applicable in all critical real time scenarios.

Keywords: Image segmentation, Model-based, Region growing, Blob Analysis, Occlusion, Shadow detection, Intelligent videosurveillance.

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708 Urban Environmental Challenges in Developing Cities: The Case of Ethiopian Capital Addis Ababa

Authors: Dubbale Daniel A., Tsutsumi J., Michael J. Bendewald

Abstract:

Addis Ababa is a seat of African Union (AU), United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UN-ECA) and hundreds of embassies and consular representatives. Addis Ababa is one of the highest capitals in the world with an average 2400 meters above sea level. It is dichotomous city with a blend of modern high-rise and deteriorating slum quarters. Water supply and sanitation, waste management and housing are continuing to be serious problems. Forest wood based domestic energy use as well as uncontrolled emissions from mobile and fixed sources has endangered the state of the urban environment. Analysis based on satellite imagery has revealed the deteriorating urban environment within the last three decades. The recently restructured city administration has brought improvements in the condition of the urban environment. However, the overwhelming size of the challenges faced by the city dwarfed their fairly good results.

Keywords: Addis Ababa, Urban environment, Slum, Housing, Relocation

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707 Case Study of the Exercise Habits and Aging Anxiety of Taiwanese Insurance Agents

Authors: W. T. Hsu, H. L. Tsai

Abstract:

The rapid aging of the population is a common trend in the world. However, the progress of modern medical technology has increased the average life expectancy. The global population structure has changed dramatically, and the elderly population has risen rapidly. In the face of rapid population growth, it must be noted issues of the aging population must face up to, which are the physiological, psychological, and social problems associated with aging. This study aims to investigate how insurance agents are actively dealing with an aging society, their own aging anxiety, and their exercise habits. Purposive sampling was the sampling method of this study, a total of 204 respondents were surveyed and 204 valid surveys were returned. The returned valid ratio was 100%. Statistical method included descriptive statistics, t-test, and one-way ANOVA. The results of the study found that the insurance agent’s age, seniority, exercise habits to aging anxiety are significantly different.

Keywords: Insurance agent, aging anxiety, exercise habits, elderly.

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706 Developing Damage Assessment Model for Bridge Surroundings: A Study of Disaster by Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan

Authors: Jieh-Haur Chen, Pei-Fen Huang

Abstract:

This paper presents an integrated model that automatically measures the change of rivers, damage area of bridge surroundings, and change of vegetation. The proposed model is on the basis of a neurofuzzy mechanism enhanced by SOM optimization algorithm, and also includes three functions to deal with river imagery. High resolution imagery from FORMOSAT-2 satellite taken before and after the invasion period is adopted. By randomly selecting a bridge out of 129 destroyed bridges, the recognition results show that the average width has increased 66%. The ruined segment of the bridge is located exactly at the most scour region. The vegetation coverage has also reduced to nearly 90% of the original. The results yielded from the proposed model demonstrate a pinpoint accuracy rate at 99.94%. This study brings up a successful tool not only for large-scale damage assessment but for precise measurement to disasters.

Keywords: remote sensing image, damage assessment, typhoon disaster, bridge, ANN, fuzzy, SOM, optimization.

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705 Arabic Light Stemmer for Better Search Accuracy

Authors: Sahar Khedr, Dina Sayed, Ayman Hanafy

Abstract:

Arabic is one of the most ancient and critical languages in the world. It has over than 250 million Arabic native speakers and more than twenty countries having Arabic as one of its official languages. In the past decade, we have witnessed a rapid evolution in smart devices, social network and technology sector which led to the need to provide tools and libraries that properly tackle the Arabic language in different domains. Stemming is one of the most crucial linguistic fundamentals. It is used in many applications especially in information extraction and text mining fields. The motivation behind this work is to enhance the Arabic light stemmer to serve the data mining industry and leverage it in an open source community. The presented implementation works on enhancing the Arabic light stemmer by utilizing and enhancing an algorithm that provides an extension for a new set of rules and patterns accompanied by adjusted procedure. This study has proven a significant enhancement for better search accuracy with an average 10% improvement in comparison with previous works.

Keywords: Arabic data mining, Arabic Information extraction, Arabic Light stemmer, Arabic stemmer.

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704 Oil Displacement by Water in Hauterivian Sandstone Reservoir of Kashkari Oil Field

Authors: A. J. Nazari, S. Honma

Abstract:

This paper evaluates oil displacement by water in Hauterivian sandstone reservoir of Kashkari oil field in North of Afghanistan. The core samples of this oil field were taken out from well No-21st, and the relative permeability and fractional flow are analyzed. Steady state flow laboratory experiments are performed to empirically obtain the fractional flow curves and relative permeability in different water saturation ratio. The relative permeability represents the simultaneous flow behavior in the reservoir. The fractional flow approach describes the individual phases as fractional of the total flow. The fractional flow curve interprets oil displacement by water, and from the tangent of fractional flow curve can find out the average saturation behind the water front flow saturation. Therefore, relative permeability and fractional flow curves are suitable for describing the displacement of oil by water in a petroleum reservoir. The effects of irreducible water saturation, residual oil saturation on the displaceable amount of oil are investigated through Buckley-Leveret analysis.

Keywords: Fractional flow, oil displacement, relative permeability, simultaneously flow.

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703 Optimal Design of Reference Node Placement for Wireless Indoor Positioning Systems in Multi-Floor Building

Authors: Kittipob Kondee, Chutima Prommak

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an optimization technique that can be used to optimize the placements of reference nodes and improve the location determination performance for the multi-floor building. The proposed technique is based on Simulated Annealing algorithm (SA) and is called MSMR-M. The performance study in this work is based on simulation. We compare other node-placement techniques found in the literature with the optimal node-placement solutions obtained from our optimization. The results show that using the optimal node-placement obtained by our proposed technique can improve the positioning error distances up to 20% better than those of the other techniques. The proposed technique can provide an average error distance within 1.42 meters.

Keywords: Indoor positioning System, Optimization System design, Multi-Floor Building, Wireless Sensor Networks.

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702 An Experimental Investigation of Bond Properties of Reinforcements Embedded in Geopolymer Concrete

Authors: Jee-Sang Kim, Jong Ho Park

Abstract:

Geopolymer concretes are new class of construction materials that have emerged as an alternative to Ordinary Portland cement concrete. Considerable researches have been carried out on material development of geopolymer concrete; however, a few studies have been reported on the structural use of them. This paper presents the bond behaviors of reinforcement embedded in fly ash based geopolymer concrete. The development lengths of reinforcement for various compressive strengths of concrete, 20, 30 and 40 MPa, and reinforcement diameters, 10, 16 and 25 mm, are investigated. Total 27 specimens were manufactured and pull-out test according to EN 10080 was applied to measure bond strength and slips between concrete and reinforcements. The average bond strengths decreased from 23.06MPa to 17.26 MPa, as the diameters of reinforcements increased from 10mm to 25mm. The compressive strength levels of geopolymer concrete showed no significant influence on bond strengths in this study. Also, the bond-slip relations between geopolymer concrete and reinforcement are derived using non-linear regression analysis for various experimental conditions.

Keywords: Bond-slip relation, bond strength, geopolymer concrete, pull-out test.

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701 Design of a Tube Vent to Enhance the Role of Roof Solar Collector

Authors: Eakkasak Susakunphaisan, Pichai Namprakai, Withaya Puangsombut

Abstract:

The objective of this paper was to designing a ventilation system to enhance the performance of roof solar collector (RSC) for reducing heat accumulation inside the house. The RSC has 1.8 m2 surface area made of CPAC monier roof tiles on the upper part and gypsum board on the lower part. The space between CPAC monier and gypsum board was fixed at 14 cm. Ventilation system of modified roof solar collector (modified RSC) consists of 9 tubes of 0.15m diameter and installed in the lower part of RSC. Experimental result showed that the temperature of the room, and attic temperature. The average temperature reduction of room of house used modified RSC is about 2oC. and the percentage of room temperature reduction varied between 0 to 10%. Therefore, modified RSC is an interesting option in the sense that it promotes solar energy and conserve energy.

Keywords: roof solar collector, heat accumulation

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700 Cyclostationary Gaussian Linearization for Analyzing Nonlinear System Response under Sinusoidal Signal and White Noise Excitation

Authors: R. J. Chang

Abstract:

A cyclostationary Gaussian linearization method is formulated for investigating the time average response of nonlinear system under sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation. The quantitative measure of cyclostationary mean, variance, spectrum of mean amplitude, and mean power spectral density of noise are analyzed. The qualitative response behavior of stochastic jump and bifurcation are investigated. The validity of the present approach in predicting the quantitative and qualitative statistical responses is supported by utilizing Monte Carlo simulations. The present analysis without imposing restrictive analytical conditions can be directly derived by solving non-linear algebraic equations. The analytical solution gives reliable quantitative and qualitative prediction of mean and noise response for the Duffing system subjected to both sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation.

Keywords: Cyclostationary, Duffing system, Gaussian linearization, sinusoidal signal and white noise.

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699 Application of Feed-Forward Neural Networks Autoregressive Models with Genetic Algorithm in Gross Domestic Product Prediction

Authors: E. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present a Feed-Foward Neural Networks Autoregressive (FFNN-AR) model with genetic algorithms training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product growth of six countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer of the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model. Moreover this technique can be used in Autoregressive-Moving Average models, with and without exogenous inputs, as also the training process with genetics algorithms optimization can be replaced by the error back-propagation algorithm.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Feed-Forward neuralnetworks, Genetic Algorithms, Gross Domestic Product

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698 Experimental Test of a Combined Machine that Evenly Distributes Fertilizer under the Soil on Slopes

Authors: Qurbanov Huseyn Nuraddin

Abstract:

The results of scientific research on a machine that pours an equal amount of mineral fertilizer under the soil to increase the productivity of grain in mountain farming and obtain quality grain are substantiated. The average yield of the crop depends on the nature of the distribution of fertilizers in the soil. Therefore, the study of effective energy-saving methods for the application of mineral fertilizers is the actual task of modern agriculture. Depending on the type and variety of plants in mountain farming, there is an optimal norm of mineral fertilizers. Applying an equal amount of fertilizer to the soil is one of the conditions that increase the efficiency of the field. One of the main agro-technical indicators of the work of mineral fertilizing machines is to ensure equal distribution of mineral fertilizers in the field. Taking into account the above-mentioned issues, a combined plough has been improved in our laboratory.

Keywords: Combined plough, mineral fertilizers, sprinkle fluently, fertilizer rate, cereals.

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697 Localisation of Anatomical Soft Tissue Landmarks of the Head in CT Images

Authors: M. Ovinis, D. Kerr, K. Bouazza-Marouf, M. Vloeberghs

Abstract:

In this paper, algorithms for the automatic localisation of two anatomical soft tissue landmarks of the head the medial canthus (inner corner of the eye) and the tragus (a small, pointed, cartilaginous flap of the ear), in CT images are describet. These landmarks are to be used as a basis for an automated image-to-patient registration system we are developing. The landmarks are localised on a surface model extracted from CT images, based on surface curvature and a rule based system that incorporates prior knowledge of the landmark characteristics. The approach was tested on a dataset of near isotropic CT images of 95 patients. The position of the automatically localised landmarks was compared to the position of the manually localised landmarks. The average difference was 1.5 mm and 0.8 mm for the medial canthus and tragus, with a maximum difference of 4.5 mm and 2.6 mm respectively.The medial canthus and tragus can be automatically localised in CT images, with performance comparable to manual localisation

Keywords: Anatomical soft tissue landmarks, automatic localisation, Computed Tomography (CT)

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696 Modeling Football Penalty Shootouts: How Improving Individual Performance Affects Team Performance and the Fairness of the ABAB Sequence

Authors: Pablo Enrique Sartor Del Giudice

Abstract:

Penalty shootouts often decide the outcome of important soccer matches. Although usually referred to as ”lotteries”, there is evidence that some national teams and clubs consistently perform better than others. The outcomes are therefore not explained just by mere luck, and therefore there are ways to improve the average performance of players, naturally at the expense of some sort of effort. In this article we study the payoff of player performance improvements in terms of the performance of the team as a whole. To do so we develop an analytical model with static individual performances, as well as Monte Carlo models that take into account the known influence of partial score and round number on individual performances. We find that within a range of usual values, the team performance improves above 70% faster than individual performances do. Using these models, we also estimate that the new ABBA penalty shootout ordering under test reduces almost all the known bias in favor of the first-shooting team under the current ABAB system.

Keywords: Football, penalty shootouts, Montecarlo simulation, ABBA.

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695 Preliminary Assessment of Feasibility of a Wind Energy Conversion System for a Martian Probe or Surface Rover

Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, M. Cescon, E. Benini

Abstract:

Nuclear energy sources have been widely used in the past decades in order to power spacecraft subsystems. Nevertheless, their use has attracted controversy because of the risk of harmful material released into the atmosphere if an accident were to occur during the launch phase of the mission, leading to the general adoption of photovoltaic systems. As compared to solar cells, wind turbines have a great advantage on Mars, as they can continuously produce power both during dust storms and at night-time: this paper focuses on the potential of a wind energy conversion system (WECS) considering the atmospheric conditions on Mars. Wind potential on Martian surface has been estimated, as well as the average energy requirements of a Martian probe or surface rover. Finally, the expected daily energy output of the WECS has been computed on the basis of both the swept area of the rotor and the equivalent wind speed at the landing site.

Keywords: Wind turbine, wind potential, Mars, probe, surface rover.

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694 Q-Test of Undergraduate Epistemology and Scientific Thought: Development and Testing of an Assessment of Scientific Epistemology

Authors: Matthew J. Zagumny

Abstract:

The QUEST is an assessment of scientific epistemic beliefs and was developed to measure students’ intellectual development in regards to beliefs about knowledge and knowing. The QUEST utilizes Q-sort methodology, which requires participants to rate the degree to which statements describe them personally. As a measure of personal theories of knowledge, the QUEST instrument is described with the Q-sort distribution and scoring explained. A preliminary demonstration of the QUEST assessment is described with two samples of undergraduate students (novice/lower division compared to advanced/upper division students) being assessed and their average QUEST scores compared. The usefulness of an assessment of epistemology is discussed in terms of the principle that assessment tends to drive educational practice and university mission. The critical need for university and academic programs to focus on development of students’ scientific epistemology is briefly discussed.

Keywords: Scientific epistemology, critical thinking, Q-sort method, STEM undergraduates.

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693 Theoretical Investigation of the Instantaneous Folding Force during the First Fold Creation in a Square Column

Authors: A. Niknejad, G. H. Liaghat, A. H. Behravesh, H. Moslemi Naeini

Abstract:

In this paper, a theoretical formula is presented to predict the instantaneous folding force of the first fold creation in a square column under axial loading. Calculations are based on analysis of “Basic Folding Mechanism" introduced by Wierzbicki and Abramowicz. For this purpose, the sum of dissipated energy rate under bending around horizontal and inclined hinge lines and dissipated energy rate under extensional deformations are equated to the work rate of the external force on the structure. Final formula obtained in this research, reasonably predicts the instantaneous folding force of the first fold creation versus folding distance and folding angle and also predicts the instantaneous folding force instead of the average value. Finally, according to the calculated theoretical relation, instantaneous folding force of the first fold creation in a square column was sketched versus folding distance and was compared to the experimental results which showed a good correlation.

Keywords: Instantaneous force, Folding force, Honeycomb, Square column.

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692 Performance and Emission Prediction in a Biodiesel Engine Fuelled with Honge Methyl Ester Using RBF Neural Networks

Authors: Shivakumar, G. S. Vijay, P. Srinivas Pai, B. R. Shrinivasa Rao

Abstract:

In the present study, RBF neural networks were used for predicting the performance and emission parameters of a biodiesel engine. Engine experiments were carried out in a 4 stroke diesel engine using blends of diesel and Honge methyl ester as the fuel. Performance parameters like BTE, BSEC, Tex and emissions from the engine were measured. These experimental results were used for ANN modeling. RBF center initialization was done by random selection and by using Clustered techniques. Network was trained by using fixed and varying widths for the RBF units. It was observed that RBF results were having a good agreement with the experimental results. Networks trained by using clustering technique gave better results than using random selection of centers in terms of reduced MRE and increased prediction accuracy. The average MRE for the performance parameters was 3.25% with the prediction accuracy of 98% and for emissions it was 10.4% with a prediction accuracy of 80%.

Keywords: Radial Basis Function networks, emissions, Performance parameters, Fuzzy c means.

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691 Numerical Simulation of the Air Pollutants Dispersion Emitted by CHP Using ANSYS CFX

Authors: Oliver Mărunţălu, Gheorghe Lăzăroiu, Elena Elisabeta Manea, Dana Andreya Bondrea, Lăcrămioara Diana Robescu

Abstract:

This paper presents the results obtained by numerical simulation using the software ANSYS CFX-CFD for the air pollutants dispersion in the atmosphere coming from the evacuation of combustion gases resulting from the fuel combustion in an electric thermal power plant. The model uses the Navier-Stokes equation to simulate the dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere. It is considered as important factors in elaboration of simulation the atmospheric conditions (pressure, temperature, wind speed, wind direction), the exhaust velocity of the combustion gases, chimney height and the obstacles (buildings). Using the air quality monitoring stations it is measured the concentrations of main pollutants (SO2, NOx and PM). The pollutants were monitored over a period of 3 months, after that the average concentration are calculated, which is used by the software. The concentrations are: 8.915 μg/m3 (NOx), 9.587 μg/m3 (SO2) and 42 μg/m3 (PM). A comparison of test data with simulation results demonstrated that CFX was able to describe the dispersion of the pollutant as well the concentration of this pollutants in the atmosphere.

Keywords: Air pollutants, computational fluid dynamics, dispersion, simulation.

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690 Time Series Forecasting Using a Hybrid RBF Neural Network and AR Model Based On Binomial Smoothing

Authors: Fengxia Zheng, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model–BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately.

Keywords: Binomial smoothing (BS), hybrid, Canadian Lynx data, forecasting accuracy.

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689 Porosities Comparison between Production and Simulation in Motorcycle Fuel Caps of Aluminum High Pressure Die Casting

Authors: P. Meethum, C. Suvanjumrat

Abstract:

Many aluminum motorcycle parts produced by a high pressure die casting. Some parts such as fuel caps were a thin and complex shape. This part risked for porosities and blisters on surface if it only depended on an experience of mold makers for mold design. This research attempted to use CAST-DESIGNER software simulated the high pressure die casting process with the same process parameters of a motorcycle fuel cap production. The simulated results were compared with fuel cap products and expressed the same porosity and blister locations on cap surface. An average of absolute difference of simulated results was obtained 0.094 mm when compared the simulated porosity and blister defect sizes on the fuel cap surfaces with the experimental micro photography. This comparison confirmed an accuracy of software and will use the setting parameters to improve fuel cap molds in the further work.

Keywords: Aluminum, die casting, fuel cap, motorcycle.

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688 Happiness, Media and Sustainability of Communities in Donkeaw, Mearim District, Chiang Mai, Thailand

Authors: Panida Jongsuksomsakul

Abstract:

This study of the ‘happiness’ and ‘sustainability’ in the community of Donkeaw, Amphoe Mae Rim, Chiang Mai Province during the non-election period in Thailand, noted that their happiness levels are in the middle-average range. This was found using a mixed approach of qualitative and quantitative methods (N = 386, α = 0.05). The study explores indicators for six aspects of well-being and happiness, including, good local governance, administrative support for the health system that maintains people’s mental and physical health, environment and weather, job security and a regular income aids them in managing a sustainable lifestyle. The impact of economic security and community relationships on social and cultural capital, and the way these aspects impact on the life style of the community, affects the sustainable well-being of people. Moreover, living with transparency and participatory communication led to diverse rewards in many areas.

Keywords: Communication, happiness, well-being, Donkeaw community, social and cultural capital.

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687 Comparative Correlation Investigation of Polynuclear Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Soils of Different Land Use: Sources Evaluation Perspective

Authors: O. Onoriode Emoyan, E. Eyitemi Akporhonor, Charles Otobrise

Abstract:

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) are formed mainly because of incomplete combustion of organic materials during industrial, domestic activities or natural occurrence. Their toxicity and contamination of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem have been established. However, with limited validity index, previous research has focused on PAHs isomer pair ratios of variable physicochemical properties in source identification. The objective of this investigation was to determine the empirical validity of Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) and Cluster Analysis (CA) in PAHs source identification along soil samples of different land uses. Therefore, 16 PAHs grouped, as Endocrine Disruption Substances (EDSs) were determined in 10 sample stations in top and sub soils seasonally. PAHs was determined the use of Varian 300 gas chromatograph interfaced with flame ionization detector. Instruments and reagents used are of standard and chromatographic grades respectively. PCC and CA results showed that the classification of PAHs along pyrolitic and petrogenic organics used in source signature is about the predominance PAHs in environmental matrix. Therefore, the distribution of PAHs in the studied stations revealed the presence of trace quantities of the vast majority of the sixteen PAHs, which may ultimately inhabit the actual source signature authentication. Therefore, factors to be considered when evaluating possible sources of PAHs could be; type and extent of bacterial metabolism, transformation products/substrates, and environmental factors such as salinity, pH, oxygen concentration, nutrients, light intensity, temperature, co-substrates, and environmental medium are hereby recommended as factors to be considered when evaluating possible sources of PAHs.

Keywords: Comparative correlation, kinetically, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, thermodynamically- favored PAHs, sources evaluation.

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686 The Impact of Bus Rapid Transit on Land Development: A Case Study of Beijing, China

Authors: Taotao Deng, John D. Nelson

Abstract:

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has emerged as a cost-effective transport system for urban mobility. However its ability to stimulate land development remains largely unexplored. The study makes use of qualitative (interview method) and quantitative analysis (questionnaire survey and longitudinal analysis of property data) to investigate land development impact resulting from BRT in Beijing, China. The empirical analysis suggests that BRT has a positive impact on the residential and commercial property attractiveness along the busway corridor. The statistical analysis suggests that accessibility advantage conferred by BRT is capitalized into higher property price. The average price of apartments adjacent to a BRT station has gained a relatively faster increase than those not served by the BRT system. The capitalization effect mostly occurs after the full operation of BRT, and is more evident over time and particularly observed in areas which previously lack alternative mobility opportunity.

Keywords: accessibility, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Beijing, property value uplift

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685 VaR Forecasting in Times of Increased Volatility

Authors: Ivo Jánský, Milan Rippel

Abstract:

The paper evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004 and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC, FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the ARMA processes with up to two lags and variance with one of GARCH, EGARCH or TARCH processes with up to two lags. The models are estimated on the data from the in-sample period and their forecasting accuracy is evaluated on the out-of-sample data, which are more volatile. The main aim of the paper is to test whether a model estimated on data with lower volatility can be used in periods with higher volatility. The evaluation is based on the conditional coverage test and is performed on each stock index separately. The primary result of the paper is that the volatility is best modelled using a GARCH process and that an ARMA process pattern cannot be found in analyzed time series.

Keywords: VaR, risk analysis, conditional volatility, garch, egarch, tarch, moving average process, autoregressive process

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684 Kinematic Gait Analysis of Upper and Lower Limbs Joints in Hemiplegic Children

Authors: Zeinab A.Hussein, Manal S. Abd El-Wahab, Shorouk A. W. El-Shennawy

Abstract:

Children with hemiplgic cerebral palsy often walk with diminished reciprocal arm swing so the purpose of this study was to describe kinematic characteristics in children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy (CP) during the gait suphases, and find if there is a correlation between upper(shoulder and elbow) and lower(hip, knee, and ankle) limb joints either in involved or uninvolved.48 children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy (18boys, 30girls) with an average age of (5.1±0.87) years were selected randomly to evaluate joint angles during gait by 3D motion analysis system with 6 pro reflex cameras in a sagittal plane for both sides of the body. The results showed increased shoulder and elbow flexion, increased hip angular displacement, decreased knee and ankle arcs during gait cycle, also there is correlation between shoulder and elbow to hip, knee, and ankle joints during various subphases of gait.

Keywords: Cerebral palsy, Gait, Hemiplegia, Motion analysis.

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683 The Impact of an Air-Supply Guide Vane on the Indoor Air Distribution

Authors: C.-C. Tsao, S.-W. Nien, W.-H. Chen , Y.-C. Shih

Abstract:

Indoor air distribution has great impact on people-s thermal sensation. Therefore, how to remove the indoor excess heat becomes an important issue to create a thermally comfortable indoor environment. To expel the extra indoor heat effectively, this paper used a dynamic CFD approach to study the effect of an air-supply guide vane swinging periodically on the indoor air distribution within a model room. The numerical results revealed that the indoor heat transfer performance caused by the swing guide vane had close relation with the number of vortices developing under the inlet cold jet. At larger swing amplitude, two smaller vortices continued to shed outward under the cold jet and remove the indoor heat load more effectively. As a result, it can be found that the average Nusselt number on the floor increased with the increase of the swing amplitude of the guide vane.

Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), dynamic mesh, heat transfer, indoor air distribution, thermal comfort.

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682 Improving University Operations with Data Mining: Predicting Student Performance

Authors: Mladen Dragičević, Mirjana Pejić Bach, Vanja Šimičević

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to develop models that would enable predicting student success. These models could improve allocation of students among colleges and optimize the newly introduced model of government subsidies for higher education. For the purpose of collecting data, an anonymous survey was carried out in the last year of undergraduate degree student population using random sampling method. Decision trees were created of which two have been chosen that were most successful in predicting student success based on two criteria: Grade Point Average (GPA) and time that a student needs to finish the undergraduate program (time-to-degree). Decision trees have been shown as a good method of classification student success and they could be even more improved by increasing survey sample and developing specialized decision trees for each type of college. These types of methods have a big potential for use in decision support systems.

Keywords: Data mining, knowledge discovery in databases, prediction models, student success.

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681 Performance Analysis of Fuzzy Logic Based Unified Power Flow Controller

Authors: Lütfü Saribulut, Mehmet Tümay, İlyas Eker

Abstract:

FACTS devices are used to control the power flow, to increase the transmission capacity and to optimize the stability of the power system. One of the most widely used FACTS devices is Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC). The controller used in the control mechanism has a significantly effects on controlling of the power flow and enhancing the system stability of UPFC. According to this, the capability of UPFC is observed by using different control mechanisms based on P, PI, PID and fuzzy logic controllers (FLC) in this study. FLC was developed by taking consideration of Takagi- Sugeno inference system in the decision process and Sugeno-s weighted average method in the defuzzification process. Case studies with different operating conditions are applied to prove the ability of UPFC on controlling the power flow and the effectiveness of controllers on the performance of UPFC. PSCAD/EMTDC program is used to create the FLC and to simulate UPFC model.

Keywords: FACTS, Fuzzy Logic Controller, UPFC.

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680 Kerma Profile Measurements in CT Chest Scans– a Comparison of Methodologies

Authors: Bruno B. Oliveira, Arnaldo P. Mourão, Teógenes A. da Silva

Abstract:

The Brazilian legislation has only established diagnostic reference levels (DRLs) in terms of Multiple Scan Average Dose (MSAD) as a quality control parameter for computed tomography (CT) scanners. Compliance with DRLs can be verified by measuring the Computed Tomography Kerma Index (Ca,100) with a pencil ionization chamber or by obtaining the kerma distribution in CT scans with radiochromic films or rod shape lithium fluoride termoluminescent dosimeters (TLD-100). TL dosimeters were used to record kerma profiles and to determine MSAD values of a Bright Speed model GE CT scanner. Measurements were done with radiochromic films and TL dosimeters distributed in cylinders positioned in the center and in four peripheral bores of a standard polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) body CT dosimetry phantom. Irradiations were done using a protocol for adult chest. The maximum values were found at the midpoint of the longitudinal axis. The MSAD values obtained with three dosimetric techniques were compared.

Keywords: Kerma profile, CT, MSAD, patient dosimetry

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