Search results for: investment decision

Authors: Amalia Suzianti

Abstract:

This research elaborates decision models for product innovation in the early phases, focusing on one of the most widely implemented method in marketing research: conjoint analysis and the related conjoint-based models with special focus on heuristics programming techniques for the development of optimal product innovation. The concept, potential, requirements and limitations of conjoint analysis and its conjoint-based heuristics successors are analysed and the development of conceptual framework of Genetic Algorithm (GA) as one of the most widely implemented heuristic methods for developing product innovations are discussed.

Keywords: Product Innovation, Conjoint Analysis, Heuristic Model, Genetic Algorithm

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Authors: An-Shik Yang, Chiang-Ho Cheng, Jen-Hao Wu, Yu-Hsuan Juan

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Natural ventilation has played an important role for many low energy-building designs. It has been also noticed as a essential subject to persistently bring the fresh cool air from the outside into a building. This study carried out the computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based simulations to examine the natural ventilation development of a work area in a public building. The simulated results can be useful to better understand the indoor microclimate and the interaction of wind with buildings. Besides, this CFD simulation procedure can serve as an effective analysis tool to characterize the airing performance, and thereby optimize the building ventilation for strengthening the architects, planners and other decision makers on improving the natural ventilation design of public buildings.

Keywords: CFD simulations, Natural ventilation, Microclimate, Wind environment.

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Authors: Nam Lethanh, Bryan T. Adey

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In this paper, the potential use of an exponential hidden Markov model to model a hidden pavement deterioration process, i.e. one that is not directly measurable, is investigated. It is assumed that the evolution of the physical condition, which is the hidden process, and the evolution of the values of pavement distress indicators, can be adequately described using discrete condition states and modeled as a Markov processes. It is also assumed that condition data can be collected by visual inspections over time and represented continuously using an exponential distribution. The advantage of using such a model in decision making process is illustrated through an empirical study using real world data.

Keywords: Deterioration modeling, Exponential distribution, Hidden Markov model, Pavement management

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Authors: Bharatendra Rai

Abstract:

Cutting tools are widely used in manufacturing processes and drilling is the most commonly used machining process. Although drill-bits used in drilling may not be expensive, their breakage can cause damage to expensive work piece being drilled and at the same time has major impact on productivity. Predicting drill-bit breakage, therefore, is important in reducing cost and improving productivity. This study uses twenty features extracted from two degradation signals viz., thrust force and torque. The methodology used involves developing and comparing decision tree, random forest, and multinomial logistic regression models for classifying and predicting drill-bit breakage using degradation signals.

Keywords: Degradation signal, drill-bit breakage, random forest, multinomial logistic regression.

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Authors: S. Thirumurugan, D. R. Prince Williams

Abstract:

Software Reliability is one of the key factors in the software development process. Software Reliability is estimated using reliability models based on Non Homogenous Poisson Process. In most of the literature the Software Reliability is predicted only in testing phase. So it leads to wrong decision-making concept. In this paper, two Software Reliability concepts, testing and operational phase are studied in detail. Using S-Shaped Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM) and Exponential SRGM, the testing and operational reliability values are obtained. Finally two reliability values are compared and optimal release time is investigated.

Keywords: Error Detection Rate, Estimation of Parameters, Instantaneous Failure Rate, Mean Value Function, Non Homogenous Poisson Process (NHPP), Software Reliability.

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Authors: Youguo Wang, Lenan Wu

Abstract:

Stochastic resonance (SR) is a phenomenon whereby the signal transmission or signal processing through certain nonlinear systems can be improved by adding noise. This paper discusses SR in nonlinear signal detection by a simple test statistic, which can be computed from multiple noisy data in a binary decision problem based on a maximum a posteriori probability criterion. The performance of detection is assessed by the probability of detection error Per . When the input signal is subthreshold signal, we establish that benefit from noise can be gained for different noises and confirm further that the subthreshold SR exists in nonlinear signal detection. The efficacy of SR is significantly improved and the minimum of Per can dramatically approach to zero as the sample number increases. These results show the robustness of SR in signal detection and extend the applicability of SR in signal processing.

Keywords: Probability of detection error, signal detection, stochastic resonance.

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Authors: H. Ali, K. Hameed, N. Khan

Abstract:

In DMVC, we have more than one options of sources available for construction of side information. The newer techniques make use of both the techniques simultaneously by constructing a bitmask that determines the source of every block or pixel of the side information. A lot of computation is done to determine each bit in the bitmask. In this paper, we have tried to define areas that can only be well predicted by temporal interpolation and not by multiview interpolation or synthesis. We predict that all such areas that are not covered by two cameras cannot be appropriately predicted by multiview synthesis and if we can identify such areas in the first place, we don-t need to go through the script of computations for all the pixels that lie in those areas. Moreover, this paper also defines a technique based on KLT to mark the above mentioned areas before any other processing is done on the side view.

Keywords: Side Information, Distributed Multiview Video Coding, Fusion, Early Decision.

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Authors: Antonio Di Leva, Carla Reyneri, Michele Sonnessa

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PARADIGMA (PARticipative Approach to DIsease Global Management) is a pilot project which aims to develop and demonstrate an Internet based reference framework to share scientific resources and findings in the treatment of major diseases. PARADIGMA defines and disseminates a common methodology and optimised protocols (Clinical Pathways) to support service functions directed to patients and individuals on matters like prevention, posthospitalisation support and awareness. PARADIGMA will provide a platform of information services - user oriented and optimised against social, cultural and technological constraints - supporting the Health Care Global System of the Euro-Mediterranean Community in a continuous improvement process.

Keywords: Decision Support Systems, Ontology, Healt Care, Clinical Pathway

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Authors: C. Nallusamy, A. Sabari, K. Suganya

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Geographical routing protocol requires node physical location information to make forwarding decision. Geographical routing uses location service or position service to obtain the position of a node. The geographical information is a geographic coordinates or can be obtained through reference points on some fixed coordinate system. Link can be formed between two nodes. Link lifetime plays a crucial role in MANET. Link lifetime represent how long the link is stable without any failure between the nodes. Link failure may occur due to mobility and because of link failure energy of nodes can be drained. Thus this paper proposes survey about link lifetime prediction using geographical information.

Keywords: MANET, Geographical routing, Link lifetime, Link stability.

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Authors: Phanu Waraporn

Abstract:

This paper discusses the designing of knowledge integration of clinical information extracted from distributed medical ontologies in order to ameliorate a machine learning-based multilabel coding assignment system. The proposed approach is implemented using a decision tree technique of the machine learning on the university hospital data for patients with Coronary Heart Disease (CHD). The preliminary results obtained show a satisfactory finding that the use of medical ontologies improves the overall system performance.

Keywords: Medical Ontology, Knowledge Integration, Machine Learning, Medical Coding, Text Assignment.

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Authors: Valene J. Gresham, MA, Laura A. Brodie

Abstract:

For the last decade, statistics show traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a growing concern in our legal system. In an effort to obtain data regarding the influence of neuropsychological expert witness testimony in a criminal case, this study tested three hypotheses. H1: The majority of jurors will vote not guilty, due to mild head injury. H2: The jurors will give more credence to the testimony of the neuropsychologist rather than the psychiatrist. H3: The jurors will be more lenient in their sentencing, given the testimony of the neuropsychologist-s testimony. The criterion for inclusion in the study as a participant is identical to those used for inclusion in the eligibility for jury duty in the United States. A chisquared test was performed to analyze the data for the three hypotheses. The results supported all of the hypotheses; however statistical significance was seen in H1 and H2 only.

Keywords: Expert witness, jury decision, neuropsychology, traumatic brain injury.

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Authors: Ewa. M. Sztendur, Neil T. Diamond

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Random Forests are a powerful classification technique, consisting of a collection of decision trees. One useful feature of Random Forests is the ability to determine the importance of each variable in predicting the outcome. This is done by permuting each variable and computing the change in prediction accuracy before and after the permutation. This variable importance calculation is similar to a one-factor-at a time experiment and therefore is inefficient. In this paper, we use a regular fractional factorial design to determine which variables to permute. Based on the results of the trials in the experiment, we calculate the individual importance of the variables, with improved precision over the standard method. The method is illustrated with a study of student attrition at Monash University.

Keywords: Random Forests, Variable Importance, Fractional Factorial Designs, Student Attrition.

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Authors: Michael Harre, Terry Bossomaier, Ranqing Chu, Allan Snyder

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We introduce a novel approach to measuring how humans learn based on techniques from information theory and apply it to the oriental game of Go. We show that the total amount of information observable in human strategies, called the strategic information, remains constant for populations of players of differing skill levels for well studied patterns of play. This is despite the very large amount of knowledge required to progress from the recreational players at one end of our spectrum to the very best and most experienced players in the world at the other and is in contrast to the idea that having more knowledge might imply more 'certainty' in what move to play next. We show this is true for very local up to medium sized board patterns, across a variety of different moves using 80,000 game records. Consequences for theoretical and practical AI are outlined.

Keywords: Board Games, Cognitive Capacity, Decision Theory, Information Theory.

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Authors: Erika Yamaguchi, Sirawadee Arunyanrt, Shunichi Ohmori, Kazuho Yoshimoto

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In this paper, we suggest a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning for maximizing a profit of Specialty store retailer of Private label Apparel (SPA) firms. Most of SPA firms are fabless and make outsourcing deals for productions with factories of their subcontractors. Every month, SPA firms make a booking for production lines and manpower in the factories. The booking is conducted a few months in advance based on a demand prediction and a monthly production planning at that time. However, the demand prediction is updated month by month, and the monthly production planning would change to meet the latest demand prediction. Then, SPA firms have to change the capacities initially booked within a certain range to suit to the monthly production planning. The booking system is called “capacity-booking”. These days, though it is an issue for SPA firms to make precise monthly production planning, many firms are still conducting the production planning by empirical rules. In addition, it is also a challenge for SPA firms to match their products and factories with considering their demand predictabilities and regulation abilities. In this paper, we suggest a model for considering these two issues. An objective is to maximize a total profit of certain periods, which is sales minus costs of production, inventory, and capacity-booking penalty. To make a better monthly production planning at SPA firms, these points should be considered: demand predictabilities by random trends, previous and next month’s production planning of the target month, and regulation abilities of the capacity-booking. To decide matching products and factories for outsourcing, it is important to consider seasonality, volume, and predictability of each product, production possibility, size, and regulation ability of each factory. SPA firms have to consider these constructions and decide orders with several factories per one product. We modeled these issues as a linear programming. To validate the model, an example of several computational experiments with a SPA firm is presented. We suppose four typical product groups: basic, seasonal (Spring / Summer), seasonal (Fall / Winter), and spot product. As a result of the experiments, a monthly production planning was provided. In the planning, demand predictabilities from random trend are reduced by producing products which are different product types. Moreover, priorities to produce are given to high-margin products. In conclusion, we developed a simulation tool to make a decision of monthly production planning which is useful when the production planning is set every month. We considered the features of capacity-booking, and matching of products and factories which have different features and conditions.

Keywords: Capacity-booking, SPA, monthly production planning, linear programming.

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

Abstract:

In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: Bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis.

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Authors: Abbas Al-Refaie

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The research examines the factors that affect customer churn (CC) in the Jordanian telecom industry. A total of 700 surveys were distributed. Cluster analysis revealed three main clusters. Results showed that CC and customer satisfaction (CS) were the key determinants in forming the three clusters. In two clusters, the center values of CC were high, indicating that the customers were loyal and SC was expensive and time- and energy-consuming. Still, the mobile service provider (MSP) should enhance its communication (COM), and value added services (VASs), as well as customer complaint management systems (CCMS). Finally, for the third cluster the center of the CC indicates a poor level of loyalty, which facilitates customers churn to another MSP. The results of this study provide valuable feedback for MSP decision makers regarding approaches to improving their performance and reducing CC.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, telecom industry, switching cost, customer churn.

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Authors: Nafaâ Nacereddine, Latifa Hamami, Djemel Ziou

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In non destructive testing by radiography, a perfect knowledge of the weld defect shape is an essential step to appreciate the quality of the weld and make decision on its acceptability or rejection. Because of the complex nature of the considered images, and in order that the detected defect region represents the most accurately possible the real defect, the choice of thresholding methods must be done judiciously. In this paper, performance criteria are used to conduct a comparative study of thresholding methods based on gray level histogram, 2-D histogram and locally adaptive approach for weld defect extraction in radiographic images.

Keywords: 1D and 2D histogram, locally adaptive approach, performance criteria, radiographic image, thresholding, weld defect.

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Authors: Defu Zhang, Qingshan Jiang, Xin Li

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This paper deals with the application of a well-known neural network technique, multilayer back-propagation (BP) neural network, in financial data mining. A modified neural network forecasting model is presented, and an intelligent mining system is developed. The system can forecast the buying and selling signs according to the prediction of future trends to stock market, and provide decision-making for stock investors. The simulation result of seven years to Shanghai Composite Index shows that the return achieved by this mining system is about three times as large as that achieved by the buy and hold strategy, so it is advantageous to apply neural networks to forecast financial time series, the different investors could benefit from it.

Keywords: Data mining, neural network, stock forecasting.

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Authors: M. Arja, G. Sauce, B. Souyri

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Overall cost is a significant consideration in any decision-making process. Although many studies were carried out on overall cost in construction, little has treated the uncertainties of real life cycle development. On the basis of several case studies, a feedback process was performed on the historical data of studied buildings. This process enabled to identify some factors causing uncertainty during the operational period. As a result, the research proposes a new method for assessing the overall cost during a part of the building-s life cycle taking account of the building actual value, its end-of-life value and the influence of the identified life cycle uncertainty factors. The findings are a step towards a higher level of reliability in overall cost evaluation taking account of some usually unexpected uncertainty factors.

Keywords: Asset management, building life cycle uncertainty, building value, overall cost.

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Authors: Derya Eren Akyol, Gonca Tuncel, G. Mirac Bayhan

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Activity-Based Costing (ABC) represents an alternative paradigm to traditional cost accounting system and it often provides more accurate cost information for decision making such as product pricing, product mix, and make-orbuy decisions. ABC models the causal relationships between products and the resources used in their production and traces the cost of products according to the activities through the use of appropriate cost drivers. In this paper, the implementation of the ABC in a manufacturing system is analyzed and a comparison with the traditional cost based system in terms of the effects on the product costs are carried out to highlight the difference between two costing methodologies. By using this methodology, a valuable insight into the factors that cause the cost is provided, helping to better manage the activities of the company.

Keywords: Activity-based costing, manufacturing systems, product costs, traditional costing.

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Authors: Jolly Puri, Shiv Prasad Yadav

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Multi-component data envelopment analysis (MC-DEA) is a popular technique for measuring aggregate performance of the decision making units (DMUs) along with their components. However, the conventional MC-DEA is limited to crisp input and output data which may not always be available in exact form. In real life problems, data may be imprecise or fuzzy. Therefore, in this paper, we propose (i) a fuzzy MC-DEA (FMC-DEA) model in which shared and undesirable fuzzy resources are incorporated, (ii) the proposed FMC-DEA model is transformed into a pair of crisp models using α cut approach, (iii) fuzzy aggregate performance of a DMU and fuzzy efficiencies of components are defined to be fuzzy numbers, and (iv) a numerical example is illustrated to validate the proposed approach.

Keywords: Multi-component DEA, fuzzy multi-component DEA, fuzzy resources.

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Authors: Khaled M. Alhawiti

Abstract:

This paper aims to analyze the role of natural language processing (NLP). The paper will discuss the role in the context of automated data retrieval, automated question answer, and text structuring. NLP techniques are gaining wider acceptance in real life applications and industrial concerns. There are various complexities involved in processing the text of natural language that could satisfy the need of decision makers. This paper begins with the description of the qualities of NLP practices. The paper then focuses on the challenges in natural language processing. The paper also discusses major techniques of NLP. The last section describes opportunities and challenges for future research.

Keywords: Data Retrieval, Information retrieval, Natural Language Processing, Text Structuring.

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Authors: H. Florianová, J. Nešleha

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Financial derivatives are considered to be risky investment instruments which could possibly bring another financial crisis. As prevention, European Union and its member states have released new legal acts adjusting this area of law in recent years. There have been several cases in history of capital markets worldwide where it was shown that legislature may affect behavior of subjects on capital markets. In our paper we analyze main events on selected European stock exchanges in order to apply them on three chosen markets - Czech capital market represented by Prague Stock Exchange, German capital market represented by Deutsche Börse and Polish capital market represented by Warsaw Stock Exchange. We follow time series of development of the sum of listed derivatives on these three stock exchanges in order to evaluate popularity of those exchanges. Afterwards we compare newly listed derivatives in relation to the speed of development of these exchanges. We also make a comparison between trends in derivatives and shares development. We explain how a legal regulation may affect situation on capital markets. If the regulation is too strict, potential investors or traders are not willing to undertake it and move to other markets. On the other hand, if the regulation is too vague, trading scandals occur and the market is not reliable from the prospect of potential investors or issuers. We see that making the regulation stricter usually discourages subjects to stay on the market immediately although making the regulation vaguer to interest more subjects is usually much slower process.

Keywords: Capital markets, financial derivatives, investors' behavior, regulation.

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Authors: Nermin Ozgulbas, Ali Serhan Koyuncugil

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One of the biggest problems of SMEs is their tendencies to financial distress because of insufficient finance background. In this study, an Early Warning System (EWS) model based on data mining for financial risk detection is presented. CHAID algorithm has been used for development of the EWS. Developed EWS can be served like a tailor made financial advisor in decision making process of the firms with its automated nature to the ones who have inadequate financial background. Besides, an application of the model implemented which covered 7,853 SMEs based on Turkish Central Bank (TCB) 2007 data. By using EWS model, 31 risk profiles, 15 risk indicators, 2 early warning signals, and 4 financial road maps has been determined for financial risk mitigation.

Keywords: Early Warning Systems, Data Mining, Financial Risk, SMEs.

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Authors: M. Talebzadegan, S. Bina, I. Riazi

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The purpose of this paper is to present an active solar energy system to supply heating demands of the teaching staff dormitory of the Islamic Azad University of Ramhormoz. The design takes into account the solar radiations and climate data of Ramhormoz town and is based on the daily warm water consumption for health demands of 450 residents of the dormitory, which is equal to 27000 lit of 50-C° water, and building heating requirements with an area of 3500 m² well-protected by heatproof materials. First, heating demands of the building were calculated, then a hybrid system made up of solar and fossil energies was developed and finally, the design was economically evaluated. Since there is only roof space for using 110 flat solar water heaters, the calculations were made to hybridize solar water heating system with heat pumping system in which solar energy contributes 67% of the heat generated. According to calculations, the net present value “N.P.V.” of revenue stream exceeds “N.P.V.” of cash paid off in this project over three years, which makes economically quite promising. The return of investment and payback period of the project is 4 years. Also, the internal rate of return (IRR) of the project was 25%, which exceeds bank rate of interest in Iran and emphasizes the desirability of the project.

Keywords: Solar energy, heat demand, renewable, pollution.

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Authors: H. Dujmic, V. Papic, H. Turic

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The article presents a new method for detection of artificial objects and materials from images of the environmental (non-urban) terrain. Our approach uses the hue and saturation (or Cb and Cr) components of the image as the input to the segmentation module that uses the mean shift method. The clusters obtained as the output of this stage have been processed by the decision-making module in order to find the regions of the image with the significant possibility of representing human. Although this method will detect various non-natural objects, it is primarily intended and optimized for detection of humans; i.e. for search and rescue purposes in non-urban terrain where, in normal circumstances, non-natural objects shouldn-t be present. Real world images are used for the evaluation of the method.

Keywords: Landscape surveillance, mean shift algorithm, image segmentation, target detection.

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Authors: Susmita Ghosh, Bhaskar Bhowmick

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Market is an important factor for start-ups to look into during decision-making in product development and related areas. Emerging country markets are more uncertain in terms of information availability and institutional supports. The literature review of market uncertainty reveals the need for identifying factors representing the market uncertainty. This paper identifies factors for market uncertainty using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and confirmed the number of factor retention using an alternative factor retention criterion ‘Parallel Analysis’. 500 entrepreneurs, engaged in start-ups from all over India participated in the study. This paper concludes with the factor structure of ‘market uncertainty’ having dimensions of uncertainty in industry orientation, uncertainty in customer orientation and uncertainty in marketing orientation.

Keywords: Uncertainty, market, orientation, competitor, demand.

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Authors: Yin-Yann Chen, Tzu-Ling Chen

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This study presents the case of an actual Taiwanese semiconductor assembly and testing manufacturer. Three major bottleneck manufacturing processes, namely, die bond, wire bond, and molding, are analyzed to determine how to use finite resources to achieve the optimal capacity allocation. A medium-term capacity allocation planning model is developed by considering the optimal total profit to satisfy the promised volume demanded by customers and to obtain the best migration decision among production lines for machines and tools. Finally, sensitivity analysis based on the actual case is provided to explore the effect of various parameter levels.

Keywords: Capacity planning, capacity allocation, machine migration, resource configuration.

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Authors: Yurii Bloshko, Oksana Olar

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This paper presents the analysis of six different classes of Petri nets: fuzzy Petri nets (FPN), generalized fuzzy Petri nets (GFPN), parameterized fuzzy Petri nets (PFPN), T2GFPN, flexible generalized fuzzy Petri nets (FGFPN), binary Petri nets (BPN). These classes were simulated in the special software PNeS® for the analysis of its pros and cons on the example of models which are dedicated to the decision-making process of passenger transport logistics. The paper includes the analysis of two approaches: when input values are filled with the experts’ knowledge; when fuzzy expectations represented by output values are added to the point. These approaches fulfill the possibilities of triples of functions which are replaced with different combinations of t-/s-norms.

Keywords: Fuzzy petri net, intelligent computational techniques, knowledge representation, triangular norms.

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Authors: Praveen Boinee, Alessandro De Angelis, Gian Luca Foresti

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Leo Breimans Random Forests (RF) is a recent development in tree based classifiers and quickly proven to be one of the most important algorithms in the machine learning literature. It has shown robust and improved results of classifications on standard data sets. Ensemble learning algorithms such as AdaBoost and Bagging have been in active research and shown improvements in classification results for several benchmarking data sets with mainly decision trees as their base classifiers. In this paper we experiment to apply these Meta learning techniques to the random forests. We experiment the working of the ensembles of random forests on the standard data sets available in UCI data sets. We compare the original random forest algorithm with their ensemble counterparts and discuss the results.

Keywords: Random Forests [RF], ensembles, UCI.

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