Search results for: Time Series Forecasting.

Authors: Mohammad H. Taheri, David J. Brown, Nasser Sherkat

Abstract:

Engagement is one of the most important factors in determining successful outcomes and deep learning in students. Existing approaches to detect student engagement involve periodic human observations that are subject to inter-rater reliability. Our solution uses real-time multimodal multisensor data labeled by objective performance outcomes to infer the engagement of students. The study involves four students with a combined diagnosis of cerebral palsy and a learning disability who took part in a 3-month trial over 59 sessions. Multimodal multisensor data were collected while they participated in a continuous performance test. Eye gaze, electroencephalogram, body pose, and interaction data were used to create a model of student engagement through objective labeling from the continuous performance test outcomes. In order to achieve this, a type of continuous performance test is introduced, the Seek-X type. Nine features were extracted including high-level handpicked compound features. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, a series of different machine learning approaches were evaluated. Overall, the random forest classification approach achieved the best classification results. Using random forest, 93.3% classification for engagement and 42.9% accuracy for disengagement were achieved. We compared these results to outcomes from different models: AdaBoost, decision tree, k-Nearest Neighbor, naïve Bayes, neural network, and support vector machine. We showed that using a multisensor approach achieved higher accuracy than using features from any reduced set of sensors. We found that using high-level handpicked features can improve the classification accuracy in every sensor mode. Our approach is robust to both sensor fallout and occlusions. The single most important sensor feature to the classification of engagement and distraction was shown to be eye gaze. It has been shown that we can accurately predict the level of engagement of students with learning disabilities in a real-time approach that is not subject to inter-rater reliability, human observation or reliant on a single mode of sensor input. This will help teachers design interventions for a heterogeneous group of students, where teachers cannot possibly attend to each of their individual needs. Our approach can be used to identify those with the greatest learning challenges so that all students are supported to reach their full potential.

Keywords: Affective computing in education, affect detection, continuous performance test, engagement, flow, HCI, interaction, learning disabilities, machine learning, multimodal, multisensor, physiological sensors, Signal Detection Theory, student engagement.

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Authors: Yi Hong, Zhao Yang Dong

Abstract:

This paper presents the performance analysis of space-time trellis codes in orthogonal frequency division multiplexing systems (STTC-OFDMs) over quasi-static frequency selective fading channels. In particular, the effect of channel delay distributions on the code performance is discussed. For a STTCOFDM over multiple-tap channels, two extreme conditions that produce the largest minimum determinant are highlighted. The analysis also proves that the corresponding coding gain increases with the maximum tap delay. The performance of STTC-OFDM, under various channel conditions, is evaluated by simulation. It is shown that the simulation results agree with the performance analysis.

Keywords: Space-time trellis code, OFDM, delay profile.

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Authors: Miaomiao Yang, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

This paper studies the problem of exponential stability analysis for uncertain neural networks with discrete and distributed time-varying delays. Together with a suitable augmented Lyapunov Krasovskii function, zero equalities, reciprocally convex approach and a novel sufficient condition to guarantee the exponential stability of the considered system. The several exponential stability criterion proposed in this paper is simpler and effective. Finally,numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of our results.

Keywords: Exponential stability, Uncertain Neural networks, LMI approach, Lyapunov-Krasovskii function, Time-varying.

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Authors: Watcharakorn Thongchuay, Puntip Toghaw, Montri Maleewong

Abstract:

The Wavelet-Galerkin finite element method for solving the one-dimensional heat equation is presented in this work. Two types of basis functions which are the Lagrange and multi-level wavelet bases are employed to derive the full form of matrix system. We consider both linear and quadratic bases in the Galerkin method. Time derivative is approximated by polynomial time basis that provides easily extend the order of approximation in time space. Our numerical results show that the rate of convergences for the linear Lagrange and the linear wavelet bases are the same and in order 2 while the rate of convergences for the quadratic Lagrange and the quadratic wavelet bases are approximately in order 4. It also reveals that the wavelet basis provides an easy treatment to improve numerical resolutions that can be done by increasing just its desired levels in the multilevel construction process.

Keywords: Galerkin finite element method, Heat equation , Lagrange basis function, Wavelet basis function.

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Authors: J. M. Kim, K. H. Kwon

Abstract:

We show that in a two-channel sampling series expansion of band-pass signals, any finitely many missing samples can always be recovered via oversampling in a larger band-pass region. We also obtain an analogous result for multi-channel oversampling of harmonic signals.

Keywords: oversampling, multi-channel sampling, recovery of missing samples, band-pass signal, harmonic signal

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Authors: Geeta Partap, Nitika Chugh

Abstract:

The present paper deals with the flexural vibrations of homogeneous, isotropic, generalized micropolar microstretch thermoelastic thin Euler-Bernoulli beam resonators, due to Exponential time varying load. Both the axial ends of the beam are assumed to be at simply supported conditions. The governing equations have been solved analytically by using Laplace transforms technique twice with respect to time and space variables respectively. The inversion of Laplace transform in time domain has been performed by using the calculus of residues to obtain deflection.The analytical results have been numerically analyzed with the help of MATLAB software for magnesium like material. The graphical representations and interpretations have been discussed for Deflection of beam under Simply Supported boundary condition and for distinct considered values of time and space as well. The obtained results are easy to implement for engineering analysis and designs of resonators (sensors), modulators, actuators.

Keywords: Microstretch, deflection, exponential load, Laplace transforms, Residue theorem, simply supported.

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Authors: M.G.A. Nassef, Linghan Li, C. Schenck, B. Kuhfuss

Abstract:

Design and modeling of nonlinear systems require the knowledge of all inside acting parameters and effects. An empirical alternative is to identify the system-s transfer function from input and output data as a black box model. This paper presents a procedure using least squares algorithm for the identification of a feed drive system coefficients in time domain using a reduced model based on windowed input and output data. The command and response of the axis are first measured in the first 4 ms, and then least squares are applied to predict the transfer function coefficients for this displacement segment. From the identified coefficients, the next command response segments are estimated. The obtained results reveal a considerable potential of least squares method to identify the system-s time-based coefficients and predict accurately the command response as compared to measurements.

Keywords: feed drive systems, least squares algorithm, onlineparameter identification, short time window

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper presents architectural acoustic modeling to estimate reverberation time in room acoustic design using multiple criteria decision making analysis. First, fundamental decision criteria were determined to evaluate the reverberation time in the room acoustic design problem. Then, the proposed model was applied to a practical decision problem to evaluate and select the optimal room acoustic design model. Finally, the optimal acoustic design of the rooms was analyzed and ranked using a multiple criteria decision making analysis method.

Keywords: Architectural acoustics, room acoustics, architectural acoustic modeling, reverberation time, room acoustic design, multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision analysis, MCDMA

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Authors: Valeri A. Makarov, Nazareth P. Castellanos, Manuel G. Velarde

Abstract:

In order to answer the general question: “What does a simple agent with a limited life-time require for constructing a useful representation of the environment?" we propose a robot platform including the simplest probabilistic sensory and motor layers. Then we use the platform as a test-bed for evaluation of the navigational capabilities of the robot with different “brains". We claim that a protocognitive behavior is not a consequence of highly sophisticated sensory–motor organs but instead emerges through an increment of the internal complexity and reutilization of the minimal sensory information. We show that the most fundamental robot element, the short-time memory, is essential in obstacle avoidance. However, in the simplest conditions of no obstacles the straightforward memoryless robot is usually superior. We also demonstrate how a low level action planning, involving essentially nonlinear dynamics, provides a considerable gain to the robot performance dynamically changing the robot strategy. Still, however, for very short life time the brainless robot is superior. Accordingly we suggest that small organisms (or agents) with short life-time does not require complex brains and even can benefit from simple brain-like (reflex) structures. To some extend this may mean that controlling blocks of modern robots are too complicated comparative to their life-time and mechanical abilities.

Keywords: Neural network, probabilistic control, robot navigation.

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Authors: Qingqing Wang, Baocheng Chen, Shouming Zhong

Abstract:

In this paper, utilizing the Lyapunov functional method and combining linear matrix inequality (LMI) techniques and integral inequality approach (IIA) to study the exponential stability problem for neural networks with discrete and distributed time-varying delays.By constructing new Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and dividing the discrete delay interval into multiple segments,some new delay-dependent exponential stability criteria are established in terms of LMIs and can be easily checked.In order to show the stability condition in this paper gives much less conservative results than those in the literature,numerical examples are considered.

Keywords: Neural networks, Exponential stability, LMI approach, Time-varying delays.

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Authors: Dimitrios E. Kontaxis, George Litainas, Dimitrios P. Ptochos, Vaggelis P. Ptochos, Sotirios P. Ptochos, Dimitrios Beletsis, Konstantinos Kritikakis, Milan Sunaric

Abstract:

Real-time monitoring of the supply chain conditions and procedures is a critical element for the optimal coordination and safety of the deliveries, as well as for the minimization of the delivery time and cost. Real time monitoring requires IoT data streams, which are related to the conditions of the products and the means of transport (e.g., location, temperature/humidity conditions, kinematic state, ambient light conditions, etc.). These streams are generated by battery-based IoT tracking devices, equipped with appropriate sensors, and are transmitted to a cloud-based back-end system. Proper handling and processing of the IoT data streams, using predictive and artificial intelligence algorithms, can provide significant and useful results, which can be exploited by the supply chain stakeholders in order to enhance their financial benefits, as well as the efficiency, security, transparency, coordination and sustainability of the supply chain procedures. The technology, the features and the characteristics of a complete, proprietary system, including hardware, firmware and software tools - developed in the context of a co-funded R&D program - are addressed and presented in this paper. 

Keywords: IoT embedded electronics, real-time monitoring, tracking device, sensor platform

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Authors: Kazuyoshi Mori

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the parametrization of the discrete-time systems without the unit-delay element within the framework of the factorization approach. In the parametrization, we investigate the number of required parameters. We consider single-input single-output systems in this paper. By the investigation, we find, on the discrete-time systems without the unit-delay element, three cases that are (1) there exist plants which require only one parameter and (2) two parameters, and (3) the number of parameters is at most three.

Keywords: Linear systems, parametrization, Coprime Factorization, number of parameters.

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Authors: J. Y. Lee, J. Kim, H. J. Chang, J. M. Kim

Abstract:

People’s tendency towards living in apartment houses is increasing in a densely populated country. However, some residents living in apartment houses are bothered by noise coming from the houses above. In order to reduce noise pollution, the communities are increasingly imposing a bylaw, including the limitation of floor impact sound, minimum thickness of floors, and floor soundproofing solutions. This research effort focused on the specific long-time deflection of resilient materials in the floor sound insulation systems of apartment houses. The experimental program consisted of testing nine floor sound insulation specimens subjected to sustained load for 45 days. Two main parameters were considered in the experimental investigation: three types of resilient materials and magnitudes of loads. The test results indicated that the structural behavior of the floor sound insulation systems under long-time load was quite different from that the systems under short-time load. The loading period increased the deflection of floor sound insulation systems and the increasing rate of the long-time deflection of the systems with ethylene vinyl acetate was smaller than that of the systems with low density ethylene polystyrene.

Keywords: Resilient materials, floor sound insulation systems, long-time deflection, sustained load, noise pollution.

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Authors: Agung Budi Muljono, I Made Ginarsa, I Made Ari Nrartha

Abstract:

A large-scale power system (LSPS) consists of two or more sub-systems connected by inter-connecting transmission. Loading pattern on an LSPS always changes from time to time and varies depend on consumer need. The serious instability problem is appeared in an LSPS due to load fluctuation in all of the bus. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)-based power system stabilizer (PSS) is presented to cover the stability problem and to enhance the stability of an LSPS. The ANFIS control is presented because the ANFIS control is more effective than Mamdani fuzzy control in the computation aspect. Simulation results show that the presented PSS is able to maintain the stability by decreasing peak overshoot to the value of −2.56 × 10−5 pu for rotor speed deviation Δω2−3. The presented PSS also makes the settling time to achieve at 3.78 s on local mode oscillation. Furthermore, the presented PSS is able to improve the peak overshoot and settling time of Δω3−9 to the value of −0.868 × 10−5 pu and at the time of 3.50 s for inter-area oscillation.

Keywords: ANFIS, large-scale, power system, PSS, stability enhancement.

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Authors: Dipali Bansal, Rashima Mahajan, Shweta Singh, Dheeraj Rathee, Sujit Roy

Abstract:

Non-invasive Brain Computer Interface like Electroencephalography (EEG) which directly taps neurological signals, is being widely explored these days to connect paralytic patients/elderly with the external environment. However, in India the research is confined to laboratory settings and is not reaching the mass for rehabilitation purposes. An attempt has been made in this paper to analyze real time acquired EEG signal using cost effective and portable headset unit EMOTIV. Signal processing of real time acquired EEG is done using EEGLAB in MATLAB and EDF Browser application software platforms. Independent Component Analysis algorithm of EEGLAB is explored to identify deliberate eye blink in the attained neural signal. Time Frequency transforms and Data statistics obtained using EEGLAB along with component activation results of EDF browser clearly indicate voluntary eye blink in AF3 channel. The spectral analysis indicates dominant frequency component at 1.536000Hz representing the delta wave component of EEG during voluntary eye blink action. An algorithm is further designed to generate an active high signal based on thoughtful eye blink that can be used for plethora of control applications for rehabilitation.

Keywords: Brain Computer Interface, EDF Browser, EEG, EEGLab, EMOTIV, Real time Acquisition

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Authors: M.A.A. Younis, N. A. Rahim, S. Mekhilef

Abstract:

This paper presents the design and analysis of a parallel connected inverter configuration of. The configuration consists of parallel connected three-phase dc/ac inverter. Series resistors added to the inverter output to maintain same current in each inverter of the two parallel inverters, and to reduce the circulating current in the parallel inverters to the minimum. High frequency third harmonic injection PWM (THIPWM) employed to reduce the total harmonic distortion and to make maximum use of the voltage source. DSP was used to generate the THIPWM and the control algorithm for the converter. Selected experimental results have been shown to validate the proposed system.

Keywords: Three-phase inverter, Third harmonic injection PWM, inverters parallel connection.

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Authors: J. P. Panda, K. Sasmal, H. V. Warrior

Abstract:

Eddy viscosity models in turbulence modeling can be mainly classified as linear and nonlinear models. Linear formulations are simple and require less computational resources but have the disadvantage that they cannot predict actual flow pattern in complex geophysical flows where streamline curvature and swirling motion are predominant. A constitutive equation of Reynolds stress anisotropy is adopted for the formulation of eddy viscosity including all the possible higher order terms quadratic in the mean velocity gradients, and a simplified model is developed for actual oceanic flows where only the vertical velocity gradients are important. The new model is incorporated into the one dimensional General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). Two realistic oceanic test cases (OWS Papa and FLEX' 76) have been investigated. The new model predictions match well with the observational data and are better in comparison to the predictions of the two equation k-epsilon model. The proposed model can be easily incorporated in the three dimensional Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to simulate a wide range of oceanic processes. Practically, this model can be implemented in the coastal regions where trasverse shear induces higher vorticity, and for prediction of flow in estuaries and lakes, where depth is comparatively less. The model predictions of marine turbulence and other related data (e.g. Sea surface temperature, Surface heat flux and vertical temperature profile) can be utilized in short term ocean and climate forecasting and warning systems.

Keywords: Eddy viscosity, turbulence modeling, GOTM, CFD.

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Authors: Xiu Liu, Shouming Zhong, Xiuyong Ding

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the problem of a common linear copositive Lyapunov function(CLCLF) existence for discrete-time switched positive linear systems(SPLSs) with bounded time-varying delays. In particular, applying system matrices, a special class of matrices are constructed in an appropriate manner. Our results reveal that the existence of a common copositive Lyapunov function can be related to the Schur stability of such matrices. A simple example is provided to illustrate the implication of our results.

Keywords: Common linear co-positive Lyapunov functions, positive systems, switched systems, delays.

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Authors: Rui Yin, Ming Yin, Yang Wang

Abstract:

For a rotational reference frame of the theory of special relativity, the critical radius is defined as the distance from the axis to the point where the tangential velocity is equal to the speed of light, and the critical cylinder as the set of all points separated from the axis by this critical radius. Based on these terms, two relativistic effects of rotation are discovered: (i) the tangential velocity in the region of Outside Critical Cylinder (OCC) is not superluminal, due to the existence of space-time exchange; (ii) some of the physical quantities of the rotational body have an opposite mathematic sign at OCC versus those at Inside Critical Cylinder (ICC), which is termed as the Critical Cylindrical Effect (CCE). The laboratory experiments demonstrate that the repulsive force exerted on an anion by electrons will change to an attractive force by the electrons in precession while the anion is at OCC of the precession. 36 screenshots from four experimental videos are provided. Theoretical proofs for both space-time exchange and CCE are then presented. The CCEs of field force are also discussed.

Keywords: Critical radius, critical cylindrical effect, special relativity, space-time exchange.

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Authors: Piercarlo Dondi, Luca Lombardi, Marco Porta

Abstract:

In the last years numerous applications of Human- Computer Interaction have exploited the capabilities of Time-of- Flight cameras for achieving more and more comfortable and precise interactions. In particular, gesture recognition is one of the most active fields. This work presents a new method for interacting with a virtual object in a 3D space. Our approach is based on the fusion of depth data, supplied by a ToF camera, with color information, supplied by a HD webcam. The hand detection procedure does not require any learning phase and is able to concurrently manage gestures of two hands. The system is robust to the presence in the scene of other objects or people, thanks to the use of the Kalman filter for maintaining the tracking of the hands.

Keywords: Gesture recognition, human-computer interaction, Time-of-Flight camera.

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Authors: Su Xiaohan, Jin Chicheng, Liu Yijing, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

Abstract:

Energy-aware scheduling in real-time systems aims to minimize energy consumption, but issues related to resource reservation and timing constraints remain challenges. This study focuses on analyzing two scheduling algorithms, Fair-Share Scheduling (FFS) and Priority-Driven Preemptive Scheduling (PDPS), for solving these issues and energy-aware scheduling in real-time systems. Based on research on both algorithms and the processes of solving two problems, it can be found that FFS ensures fair allocation of resources but needs to improve with an imbalanced system load. And PDPS prioritizes tasks based on criticality to meet timing constraints through preemption but relies heavily on task prioritization and may not be energy efficient. Therefore, improvements to both algorithms with energy-aware features will be proposed. Future work should focus on developing hybrid scheduling techniques that minimize energy consumption through intelligent task prioritization, resource allocation, and meeting time constraints.

Keywords: Energy-aware scheduling, fair-share scheduling, priority-driven preemptive scheduling, real-time systems, optimization, resource reservation, timing constraints.

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Authors: H. Abderrezek, M. N. Harmas

Abstract:

DC-DC converters are widely used as reliable power source for many industrial and military applications, computers and electronic devices. Several control methods were developed for DC-DC converters control mostly with asymptotic convergence. Synergetic control (SC) is a proven robust control approach and will be used here in a so called terminal scheme to achieve finite time convergence. Lyapounov synthesis is adopted to assure controlled system stability. Furthermore particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, based on an integral time absolute of error (ITAE) criterion will be used to optimize controller parameters. Simulation of terminal synergetic control of a DC-DC converter is carried out for different operating conditions and results are compared to classic synergetic control performance, that which demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed control method.

Keywords: DC-DC converter, PSO, finite time, terminal, synergetic control.

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Authors: SangWon Han, MuWook Pyeon, Sujung Moon, DaeKyo Seo

Abstract:

Recently, technologies based on three-dimensional (3D) space information are being developed and quality of life is improving as a result. Research on real-time digital map (RDM) is being conducted now to provide 3D space information. RDM is a service that creates and supplies 3D space information in real time based on location/shape detection. Research subjects on RDM include the construction of 3D space information with matching image data, complementing the weaknesses of image acquisition using multi-source data, and data collection methods using big data. Using RDM will be effective for space analysis using 3D space information in a U-City and for other space information utilization technologies.

Keywords: RDM, multi-source data, big data, U-City.

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Authors: Hung Tuan Nguyen

Abstract:

In this paper, with the purpose of further reducing the complexity of the system, while keeping its temporal and spatial focusing performance, we investigate the possibility of using optimal one bit time reversal (TR) system for impulse radio ultra wideband multi-user wireless communications. The results show that, by optimally selecting the number of used taps in the pre-filter the optimal one bit TR system can outperform the full one bit TR system. In some cases, the temporal and spatial focusing performance of the optimal one bit TR system appears to be compatible with that of the original TR system. This is a significant result as the overhead cost is much lower than it is required in the original TR system.

Keywords: Time reversal, optimal one bit, UWB, multi-user interference, inter symbol interference

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Authors: S. Ali Al-Mawsawi, Fadhel A. Albasri

Abstract:

The paper presents a simple and an accurate formula that has been developed for the conduction angle (δ) of a single phase half-wave or full-wave controlled rectifier with RL load. This formula can be also used for calculating the conduction angle (δ) in case of A.C. voltage regulator with inductive load under discontinuous current mode. The simulation results shows that the conduction angle calculated from the developed formula agree very well with that obtained from the exact solution arrived from the iterative method. Applying the developed formula can reduce the computational time and reduce the time for manual classroom calculation. In addition, the proposed formula is attractive for real time implementations.

Keywords: Conduction Angle, Firing Angle, Excitation Angle, Load Angle.

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Authors: Salam Alzubaidi, G. Fantoni, F. Failli, M. Frosolini

Abstract:

The dynamic facility layout problem is a really critical issue in the competitive industrial market; thus, solving this problem requires robust design and effective simulation systems. The sustainable simulation requires inputting reliable and accurate data into the system. So this paper describes an automated system integrated into the real environment to measure the duration of the material handling operations, collect the data in real-time, and determine the variances between the actual and estimated time schedule of the operations in order to update the simulation software and redesign the facility layout periodically. The automated method- time measurement system collects the real data through using Radio Frequency-Identification (RFID) and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies. Hence, attaching RFID- antenna reader and RFID tags enables the system to identify the location of the objects and gathering the time data. The real duration gathered will be manipulated by calculating the moving average duration of the material handling operations, choosing the shortest material handling path, and then updating the simulation software to redesign the facility layout accommodating with the shortest/real operation schedule. The periodic simulation in real-time is more sustainable and reliable than the simulation system relying on an analysis of historical data. The case study of this methodology is in cooperation with a workshop team for producing mechanical parts. Although there are some technical limitations, this methodology is promising, and it can be significantly useful in the redesigning of the manufacturing layout.

Keywords: Dynamic facility layout problem, internet of things, method time measurement, radio frequency identification, simulation.

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Authors: Laurenţiu Militeanu, Cristina Gena Dascâlu, D. Cristea

Abstract:

The human head representations usually are based on the morphological – structural components of a real model. Over the time became more and more necessary to achieve full virtual models that comply very rigorous with the specifications of the human anatomy. Still, making and using a model perfectly fitted with the real anatomy is a difficult task, because it requires large hardware resources and significant times for processing. That is why it is necessary to choose the best compromise solution, which keeps the right balance between the details perfection and the resources consumption, in order to obtain facial animations with real-time rendering. We will present here the way in which we achieved such a 3D system that we intend to use as a base point in order to create facial animations with real-time rendering, used in medicine to find and to identify different types of pathologies.

Keywords: 3D models, virtual reality.

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Authors: Sh. Ranjbar-Bahadori, N. Farhadifar, L. Mohammadyar

Abstract:

Plant preparations from thyme and garlic have been shown to be effective acaricides against the poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae. In a layer house with a history of D. gallinae problem, mites were detected in the monitoring traps for the first time and number of them was counted. Then, some rows of layer house was sprayed twice using a concentration of 0.21 mg/cm² thyme essential oil and 0.07 mg/cm² garlic juice and a similar row was used as an untreated control group. Red mite traps made of cardboard were used to assess the mite density during days 1 and 7 after treatment and always removed after 24 h. the collected mites were counted and the efficacy against all mite stages (larvae, nymphs and adults) was calculated. Results showed that on day 1 and 7 after the administration of garlic extract efficacy rate was 92.05% and 74.62%, respectively. Moreover, efficacy rate on day 1 and 7 was 89.4% and 95.37% when treatment was done with thyme essential oil. It is concluded that using garlic juice to control of D. gallinae is more effective on short time. But thyme essential oil has a long time effect in compare to garlic preparation.

Keywords: Dermanyssus gallinae, Essential oil, Garlic, Thyme, Efficacy.

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Authors: Rami H. Fouad

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate the scale of implementation of Just-In-Time (JIT) in the different industrial sectors in the Middle East. This study analyzes the empirical data collected by a questionnaire survey distributed to companies in three main industrial sectors in the Middle East, which are: food, chemicals and fabrics. The following main hypotheses is formulated and tested: (The requirements of JIT application differ according to the type of industrial sector).Descriptive statistics and Box plot analysis were used to examine the hypotheses. This study indicates a reasonable evidence for accepting the main hypotheses. It reveals that there is no standard way to adopt JIT as a production system. But each industrial sector should concentrate in the investment on critical requirements that differ according to the nature and strategy of production followed in that sector.

Keywords: Just-In-Time, JIT, Questionnaire, Types of Industrial Sectors.

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

Abstract:

The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: Comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events.

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