Search results for: generalised linear modelling.
1342 Integrating Agents and Computational Intelligence Techniques in E-learning Environments
Authors: Konstantinos C. Giotopoulos, Christos E. Alexakos, Grigorios N. Beligiannis, Spiridon D.Likothanassis
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In this contribution a newly developed elearning environment is presented, which incorporates Intelligent Agents and Computational Intelligence Techniques. The new e-learning environment is constituted by three parts, the E-learning platform Front-End, the Student Questioner Reasoning and the Student Model Agent. These parts are distributed geographically in dispersed computer servers, with main focus on the design and development of these subsystems through the use of new and emerging technologies. These parts are interconnected in an interoperable way, using web services for the integration of the subsystems, in order to enhance the user modelling procedure and achieve the goals of the learning process.
Keywords: E-learning environments, intelligent agents, user modeling, Bayesian Networks, computational intelligence.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18881341 Process Analysis through Length Consistency
Authors: James E. Ponder
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The requirement for consistency in physics can sometimes offer a common ground between disciplines such that their fundamental equations share a common parameter set and mathematical method for equation extraction. The parameter set shared by Relativity and Quantum Wave Mechanics enables an analysis which will be seen to be very straightforward, primarily classical in nature using linear algebra concepts, yet deriving a theoretical estimate of the value of the Gravitational Constant along with dependencies never before known.
Keywords: Gravitational Constant, Physical Consistency, Quantum Mechanics, Relativity.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15481340 Analysis of Rural Roads in Developing Countries Using Principal Component Analysis and Simple Average Technique in the Development of a Road Safety Performance Index
Authors: Muhammad Tufail, Jawad Hussain, Hammad Hussain, Imran Hafeez, Naveed Ahmad
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Road safety performance index is a composite index which combines various indicators of road safety into single number. Development of a road safety performance index using appropriate safety performance indicators is essential to enhance road safety. However, a road safety performance index in developing countries has not been given as much priority as needed. The primary objective of this research is to develop a general Road Safety Performance Index (RSPI) for developing countries based on the facility as well as behavior of road user. The secondary objectives include finding the critical inputs in the RSPI and finding the better method of making the index. In this study, the RSPI is developed by selecting four main safety performance indicators i.e., protective system (seat belt, helmet etc.), road (road width, signalized intersections, number of lanes, speed limit), number of pedestrians, and number of vehicles. Data on these four safety performance indicators were collected using observation survey on a 20 km road section of the National Highway N-125 road Taxila, Pakistan. For the development of this composite index, two methods are used: a) Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and b) Equal Weighting (EW) method. PCA is used for extraction, weighting, and linear aggregation of indicators to obtain a single value. An individual index score was calculated for each road section by multiplication of weights and standardized values of each safety performance indicator. However, Simple Average technique was used for weighting and linear aggregation of indicators to develop a RSPI. The road sections are ranked according to RSPI scores using both methods. The two weighting methods are compared, and the PCA method is found to be much more reliable than the Simple Average Technique.
Keywords: Aggregation, index score, indicators, principal component analysis, weighting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 5781339 Modelling of a Stress-Strain State of Screws of Transpedicular Spine Fixation System
Authors: Oleksandr Poliakov, Genadiy Olinichenko, Yevgen Pashkov, Vadym Kramar, Mykhaylo Kalinin
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For maintenance of a spine stability during the postoperative period a transpedicular fixing of its elements is often used. Usually the transpedicular systems are formed of rods which as a result form a design of the frame type, fastening by screws to vertebras. Such design should be rigid and perceive loadings operating from the spine without essential deformations. From the perfection point of view of known designs their stress whole, and each of elements, in particular is of interest. In this study the modeling of the transpedicular screw is performed and estimation of its deformations taking into account interaction with a vertebra body having variable structure is made.Keywords: Spine, screw, stress-strain state, transpedicular fixation system, vertebra
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15311338 Fuzzy Modeling Tool for Creating a Component Model of Information System
Authors: Bogdan Walek, Jiri Bartos, Cyril Klimes, Jaroslav Prochazka, Pavel Smolka, Juraj Masar, Martin Pesl
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This paper focuses on creating a component model of information system under uncertainty. The paper identifies problem in current approach of component modeling and proposes fuzzy tool, which will work with vague customer requirements and propose components of the resulting component model. The proposed tool is verified on specific information system and results are shown in paper. After finding suitable sub-components of the resulting component model, the component model is visualised by tool.
Keywords: Component, component model, fuzzy, fuzzy rules, fuzzy sets, information system, modelling, tool.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16471337 A New Preconditioned AOR Method for Z-matrices
Authors: Guangbin Wang, Ning Zhang, Fuping Tan
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In this paper, we present a preconditioned AOR-type iterative method for solving the linear systems Ax = b, where A is a Z-matrix. And give some comparison theorems to show that the rate of convergence of the preconditioned AOR-type iterative method is faster than the rate of convergence of the AOR-type iterative method.
Keywords: Z-matrix, AOR-type iterative method, precondition, comparison.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15711336 Flood Scenarios for Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Modelling
Authors: Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H Sharma, Fatema Akram
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Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameters remaining stationary. However climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise are likely to change. To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.
Keywords: Climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 33841335 Periodic Orbits in a Delayed Nicholson's Blowflies Model
Authors: Changjin Xu, Peiluan Li
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In this paper, a delayed Nicholson,s blowflies model with a linear harvesting term is investigated. Regarding the delay as a bifurcation parameter, we show that Hopf bifurcation will occur when the delay crosses a critical value. Numerical simulations supporting the theoretical findings are carried out.
Keywords: Nicholson's blowflies model, Stability, Hopf bifurcation, Delay.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16131334 A Visco-elastic Model for High-density Cellulose Insulation Materials
Authors: Jonas Engqvist, Per Hard af Segerstad, Birger Bring, Mathias Wallin
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A macroscopic constitutive equation is developed for a high-density cellulose insulation material with emphasis on the outof- plane stress relaxation behavior. A hypothesis is proposed where the total stress is additively composed by an out-of-plane visco-elastic isotropic contribution and an in-plane elastic orthotropic response. The theory is validated against out-of-plane stress relaxation, compressive experiments and in-plane tensile hysteresis, respectively. For large scale finite element simulations, the presented model provides a balance between simplicity and capturing the materials constitutive behaviour.
Keywords: Cellulose insulation materials, constitutive modelling, material characterisation, pressboard.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22171333 Optimal Trajectories for Highly Automated Driving
Authors: Christian Rathgeber, Franz Winkler, Xiaoyu Kang, Steffen Müller
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In this contribution two approaches for calculating optimal trajectories for highly automated vehicles are presented and compared. The first one is based on a non-linear vehicle model, used for evaluation. The second one is based on a simplified model and can be implemented on a current ECU. In usual driving situations both approaches show very similar results.Keywords: Trajectory planning, direct method, indirect method, highly automated driving.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 29551332 Consideration Factors of Moving to a New Destination for Coastland Residents Under Global Warming
Authors: Ya-Fen Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Cing-Hong Hung
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Because of the global warming and the rising sea level, residents living in southwestern coastland, Taiwan are faced with the submerged land and may move to higher elevation area. It is desirable to discuss the key consideration factor for selecting the migration location under five dimensions of ಯ security”, “health”, “convenience”, “comfort” and “socio-economic” based on the document reviews. This paper uses the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and the questionnaire survey. The analysis results show that the convenience is the most key factor for residents in Taiwan.
Keywords: Global warming, migration, structural equation modelling, questionnaire survey.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13701331 A Novel Logarithmic Current-Controlled Current Amplifier (LCCA)
Authors: Karama M. AL-Tamimi, Munir A. Al-Absi
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A new OTA-based logarithmic-control variable gain current amplifier (LCCA) is presented. It consists of two Operational Transconductance Amplifier (OTA) and two PMOS transistors biased in weak inversion region. The circuit operates from 0.6V DC power supply and consumes 0.6 μW. The linear-dB controllable output range is 43 dB with maximum error less than 0.5dB. The functionality of the proposed design was confirmed using HSPICE in 0.35μm CMOS process technology.Keywords: LCCA, OTA, Logarithmic, VGA, Weak inversion, Current-mode
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20261330 Computing Visibility Subsets in an Orthogonal Polyhedron
Authors: Jefri Marzal, Hong Xie, Chun Che Fung
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Visibility problems are central to many computational geometry applications. One of the typical visibility problems is computing the view from a given point. In this paper, a linear time procedure is proposed to compute the visibility subsets from a corner of a rectangular prism in an orthogonal polyhedron. The proposed algorithm could be useful to solve classic 3D problems.
Keywords: Visibility, rectangular prism, orthogonal polyhedron.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13951329 Mathematical Modelling of Different Types of Body Support Surface for Pressure Ulcer Prevention
Authors: Mahbub C. Mishu, Venketesh N. Dubey, Tamas Hickish, Jonathan Cole
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Pressure ulcer is a common problem for today’s healthcare industry. It occurs due to external load applied to the skin. Also when the subject is immobile for a longer period of time and there is continuous load applied to a particular area of human body, blood flow gets reduced and as a result pressure ulcer develops. Body support surface has a significant role in preventing ulceration so it is important to know the characteristics of support surface under loading conditions. In this paper we have presented mathematical models of different types of viscoelastic materials and also we have shown the validation of our simulation results with experiments.
Keywords: Pressure ulcer, viscoelastic material, mathematical model, experimental validation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 19261328 Deriving Generic Transformation Matrices for Multi-Axis Milling Machine
Authors: Alan C. Lin, Tzu-Kuan Lin, Tsong Der Lin
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This paper proposes a new method to find the equations of transformation matrix for the rotation angles of the two rotational axes and the coordinates of the three linear axes of an orthogonal multi-axis milling machine. This approach provides intuitive physical meanings for rotation angles of multi-axis machines, which can be used to evaluate the accuracy of the conversion from CL data to NC data.
Keywords: CAM, multi-axis milling machining.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 35891327 A Study on Numerical Modelling of Rigid Pavement: Temperature and Thickness Effect
Authors: Amin Chegenizadeh, Mahdi Keramatikerman, Hamid Nikraz
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Pavement engineering plays a significant role to develop cost effective and efficient highway and road networks. In general, pavement regarding structure is categorized in two core group namely flexible and rigid pavements. There are various benefits in application of rigid pavement. For instance, they have a longer life and lower maintenance costs in compare with the flexible pavement. In rigid pavement designs, temperature and thickness are two effective parameters that could widely affect the total cost of the project. In this study, a numerical modeling using Kenpave-Kenslab was performed to investigate the effect of these two important parameters in the rigid pavement.Keywords: Rigid pavement, Kenpave, Kenslab, thickness, temperature.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13751326 H∞ Approach to Functional Projective Synchronization for Chaotic Systems with Disturbances
Authors: S. M. Lee, J. H. Park, H. Y. Jung
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This paper presents a method for functional projective H∞ synchronization problem of chaotic systems with external disturbance. Based on Lyapunov theory and linear matrix inequality (LMI) formulation, the novel feedback controller is established to not only guarantee stable synchronization of both drive and response systems but also reduce the effect of external disturbance to an H∞ norm constraint.
Keywords: Chaotic systems, functional projective H∞ synchronization, LMI.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13191325 Development of a Simulator for Explaining Organic Chemical Reactions Based on Qualitative Process Theory
Authors: Alicia Y. C. Tang, Rukaini Hj. Abdullah, Sharifuddin M. Zain
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This paper discusses the development of a qualitative simulator (abbreviated QRiOM) for predicting the behaviour of organic chemical reactions. The simulation technique is based on the qualitative process theory (QPT) ontology. The modelling constructs of QPT embody notions of causality which can be used to explain the behaviour of a chemical system. The major theme of this work is that, in a qualitative simulation environment, students are able to articulate his/her knowledge through the inspection of explanations generated by software. The implementation languages are Java and Prolog. The software produces explanation in various forms that stresses on the causal theories in the chemical system which can be effectively used to support learning.Keywords: Chemical reactions, explanation, qualitative processtheory, simulation
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15711324 Septic B-spline Collocation Method for Solving One-dimensional Hyperbolic Telegraph Equation
Authors: Marzieh Dosti, Alireza Nazemi
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Recently, it is found that telegraph equation is more suitable than ordinary diffusion equation in modelling reaction diffusion for such branches of sciences. In this paper, a numerical solution for the one-dimensional hyperbolic telegraph equation by using the collocation method using the septic splines is proposed. The scheme works in a similar fashion as finite difference methods. Test problems are used to validate our scheme by calculate L2-norm and L∞-norm. The accuracy of the presented method is demonstrated by two test problems. The numerical results are found to be in good agreement with the exact solutions.
Keywords: B-spline, collocation method, second-order hyperbolic telegraph equation, difference schemes.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18081323 Thermomechanical Damage Modeling of F114 Carbon Steel
Authors: A. El Amri, M. El Yakhloufi Haddou, A. Khamlichi
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The numerical simulation based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) is widely used in academic institutes and in the industry. It is a useful tool to predict many phenomena present in the classical manufacturing forming processes such as fracture. But, the results of such numerical model depend strongly on the parameters of the constitutive behavior model. The influences of thermal and mechanical loads cause damage. The temperature and strain rate dependent materials’ properties and their modelling are discussed. A Johnson-Cook Model of damage has been selected for the numerical simulations. Virtual software called the ABAQUS 6.11 is used for finite element analysis. This model was introduced in order to give information concerning crack initiation during thermal and mechanical loads.
Keywords: Thermomechanical fatigue, failure, numerical simulation, fracture, damages.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15031322 Unipolar Anamorphosis and its use in Accessibility Analyses
Authors: T. Hudecek, Z. Zakova
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The paper deals with cartographic visualisation of results of transport accessibility monitoring with the use of a semiautomated method of unipolar anamorphosis, developed by the authors in the GIS environment. The method is based on transformation of distance in the map to values of a geographical phenomenon. In the case of time accessibility it is based on transformation of isochrones converted into the form of concentric circles, taking into account selected topographic and thematic elements in the map. The method is most suitable for analyses of accessibility to or from a centre and for modelling its long-term context. The paper provides a detailed analysis of the procedures and functionality of the method, discussing the issues of coordinates, transformation, scale and visualisation. It also offers a discussion of possible problems and inaccuracies. A practical application of the method is illustrated by previous research results by the authors in the filed of accessibility in Czechia.Keywords: accessibility, GIS, transformation, unipolar anamorphosis
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14181321 Reconstruction of the Most Energetic Modes in a Fully Developed Turbulent Channel Flow with Density Variation
Authors: Elteyeb Eljack, Takashi Ohta
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Proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is used to reconstruct spatio-temporal data of a fully developed turbulent channel flow with density variation at Reynolds number of 150, based on the friction velocity and the channel half-width, and Prandtl number of 0.71. To apply POD to the fully developed turbulent channel flow with density variation, the flow field (velocities, density, and temperature) is scaled by the corresponding root mean square values (rms) so that the flow field becomes dimensionless. A five-vector POD problem is solved numerically. The reconstructed second-order moments of velocity, temperature, and density from POD eigenfunctions compare favorably to the original Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) data.
Keywords: Pattern Recognition, POD, Coherent Structures, Low dimensional modelling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13771320 DNA Nanowires: A Charge Transfer Approach
Authors: S. Behnia, S. Fathizadeh
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Conductivity properties of DNA molecule is investigated in a simple, but chemically specific approach that is intimately related to the Su-Schrieffer-Heeger (SSH) model. This model is a tight-binding linear nanoscale chain. We have tried to study the electrical current flowing in DNA and investigated the characteristic I-V diagram. As a result, It is shown that there are the (quasi-) ohmic areas in I-V diagram. On the other hand, the regions with a negative differential resistance (NDR) are detectable in diagram.Keywords: Charge transfer in DNA, Chaos theory, Molecular electronics, Negative Differential resistance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18531319 Qualitative Modelling for Ferromagnetic Hysteresis Cycle
Authors: M. Mordjaoui, B. Boudjema, M. Chabane, R. Daira
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In determining the electromagnetic properties of magnetic materials, hysteresis modeling is of high importance. Many models are available to investigate those characteristics but they tend to be complex and difficult to implement. In this paper a new qualitative hysteresis model for ferromagnetic core is presented, based on the function approximation capabilities of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The proposed ANFIS model combined the neural network adaptive capabilities and the fuzzy logic qualitative approach can restored the hysteresis curve with a little RMS error. The model accuracy is good and can be easily adapted to the requirements of the application by extending or reducing the network training set and thus the required amount of measurement data.Keywords: ANFIS modeling technique, magnetic hysteresis, Jiles-Atherton model, ferromagnetic core.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15931318 Almost Periodic Solution for an Impulsive Neural Networks with Distributed Delays
Authors: Lili Wang
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By using the estimation of the Cauchy matrix of linear impulsive differential equations and Banach fixed point theorem as well as Gronwall-Bellman’s inequality, some sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence and exponential stability of almost periodic solution for an impulsive neural networks with distributed delays. An example is presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the results.
Keywords: Almost periodic solution, Exponential stability, Neural networks, Impulses.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16251317 Mathematical Modelling of Transport Phenomena in Radioactive Waste-Cement-Bentonite Matrix
Authors: Ilija Plecas, Uranija Kozmidis-Luburic, Radojica Pesic
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The leaching rate of 137Cs from spent mix bead (anion and cation) exchange resins in a cement-bentonite matrix has been studied. Transport phenomena involved in the leaching of a radioactive material from a cement-bentonite matrix are investigated using three methods based on theoretical equations. These are: the diffusion equation for a plane source an equation for diffusion coupled to a firstorder equation and an empirical method employing a polynomial equation. The results presented in this paper are from a 25-year mortar and concrete testing project that will influence the design choices for radioactive waste packaging for a future Serbian radioactive waste disposal center.
Keywords: bentonite, cement , radioactive waste, composite, disposal, diffusion
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22921316 CFD Simulations of a Co-current Spray Dryer
Authors: Saad Nahi Saleh
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This paper presents the prediction of air flow, humidity and temperature patterns in a co-current pilot plant spray dryer fitted with a pressure nozzle using a three dimensional model. The modelling was done with a Computational Fluid Dynamic package (Fluent 6.3), in which the gas phase is modelled as continuum using the Euler approach and the droplet/ particle phase is modelled by the Discrete Phase model (Lagrange approach).Good agreement was obtained with published experimental data where the CFD simulation correctly predicts a fast downward central flowing core and slow recirculation zones near the walls. In this work, the effects of the air flow pattern on droplets trajectories, residence time distribution of droplets and deposition of the droplets on the wall also were investigated where atomizing of maltodextrin solution was used.Keywords: Spray, CFD, multiphase, drying, droplet, particle.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 40211315 Specification of Agent Explicit Knowledge in Cryptographic Protocols
Authors: Khair Eddin Sabri, Ridha Khedri, Jason Jaskolka
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Cryptographic protocols are widely used in various applications to provide secure communications. They are usually represented as communicating agents that send and receive messages. These agents use their knowledge to exchange information and communicate with other agents involved in the protocol. An agent knowledge can be partitioned into explicit knowledge and procedural knowledge. The explicit knowledge refers to the set of information which is either proper to the agent or directly obtained from other agents through communication. The procedural knowledge relates to the set of mechanisms used to get new information from what is already available to the agent. In this paper, we propose a mathematical framework which specifies the explicit knowledge of an agent involved in a cryptographic protocol. Modelling this knowledge is crucial for the specification, analysis, and implementation of cryptographic protocols. We also, report on a prototype tool that allows the representation and the manipulation of the explicit knowledge.Keywords: Information Algebra, Agent Knowledge, CryptographicProtocols
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14801314 Coloured Reconfigurable Nets for Code Mobility Modeling
Authors: Kahloul Laid, Chaoui Allaoua
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Code mobility technologies attract more and more developers and consumers. Numerous domains are concerned, many platforms are developed and interest applications are realized. However, developing good software products requires modeling, analyzing and proving steps. The choice of models and modeling languages is so critical on these steps. Formal tools are powerful in analyzing and proving steps. However, poorness of classical modeling language to model mobility requires proposition of new models. The objective of this paper is to provide a specific formalism “Coloured Reconfigurable Nets" and to show how this one seems to be adequate to model different kinds of code mobility.
Keywords: Code mobility, modelling mobility, labelled reconfigurable nets, Coloured reconfigurable nets, mobile code design paradigms.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15641313 Forecasting Rainfall in Thailand: A Case Study of Nakhon Ratchasima Province
Authors: N. Sopipan
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In this paper, we study the rainfall using a time series for weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand by various statistical methods to enable us to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. The ARIMA and Holt-Winter models were built on the basis of exponential smoothing. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore it is possible to give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for the proper planning of agriculture, drainage systems and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We obtained the best performance from forecasting with the ARIMA Model(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.
Keywords: ARIMA Models, Exponential Smoothing, Holt- Winter model.
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