Search results for: Statistical forecasting

Authors: Nurfirdawati Muhamad Hanafi, Azmanirah Ab Rahman, Marina Ibrahim Mukhtar, Jamil Ahmad, Sarebah Warman

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This study was conducted to generate empirical evidence on validity and reliability of the item of Competency Assessment Implementation (CAI) Instrument using Rasch Model for polythomous data aided by Winstep software version 3.68. The construct validity was examined by analyzing the point-measure correlation index (PTMEA), infit and outfit MNSQ values; meanwhile the reliability was examined by analyzing item reliability index. A survey technique was used as the major method with the CAI instrument on 156 teachers from vocational schools. The results have shown that the reliability of CAI Instrument items were between 0.80 and 0.98. PTMEA Correlation is in positive values, in which the item is able to distinguish between the ability of the respondent. Statistical data obtained show that out of 154 items, 12 items from the instrument suggested to be omitted. This study is hoped could bring a new direction to the process of data analysis in educational research.

Keywords: Competency Assessment, Reliability, Validity, Item Analysis.

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Authors: Serkan Ozbay, Ergun Ercelebi

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Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) has many applications in traffic systems (highway electronic toll collection, red light violation enforcement, border and customs checkpoints, etc.). License Plate Recognition is an effective form of AVI systems. In this study, a smart and simple algorithm is presented for vehicle-s license plate recognition system. The proposed algorithm consists of three major parts: Extraction of plate region, segmentation of characters and recognition of plate characters. For extracting the plate region, edge detection algorithms and smearing algorithms are used. In segmentation part, smearing algorithms, filtering and some morphological algorithms are used. And finally statistical based template matching is used for recognition of plate characters. The performance of the proposed algorithm has been tested on real images. Based on the experimental results, we noted that our algorithm shows superior performance in car license plate recognition.

Keywords: Character recognizer, license plate recognition, plate region extraction, segmentation, smearing, template matching.

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Authors: R. A. Salam, M.A. Rodrigues

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The number of features required to represent an image can be very huge. Using all available features to recognize objects can suffer from curse dimensionality. Feature selection and extraction is the pre-processing step of image mining. Main issues in analyzing images is the effective identification of features and another one is extracting them. The mining problem that has been focused is the grouping of features for different shapes. Experiments have been conducted by using shape outline as the features. Shape outline readings are put through normalization and dimensionality reduction process using an eigenvector based method to produce a new set of readings. After this pre-processing step data will be grouped through their shapes. Through statistical analysis, these readings together with peak measures a robust classification and recognition process is achieved. Tests showed that the suggested methods are able to automatically recognize objects through their shapes. Finally, experiments also demonstrate the system invariance to rotation, translation, scale, reflection and to a small degree of distortion.

Keywords: Image mining, feature selection, shape recognition, peak measures.

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Authors: Jawairia Umar, Tanveer Hussain, Zulfiqar Ali, Muhammad Maqsood

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Different knitted structures and knitted parameters play a vital role in the stretch and recovery management of compression sportswear in addition to the materials use to generate this stretch and recovery behavior of the fabric. The present work was planned to predict the different performance indicators of a compression sportswear fabric with some ground parameters i.e. base yarn stitch length (polyester as base yarn and spandex as plating yarn involve to make a compression fabric) and linear density of the spandex which is a key material of any sportswear fabric. The prediction models were generated by response surface method for performance indicators such as stretch & recovery percentage, compression generated by the garment on body, total elongation on application of high power force and load generated on certain percentage extension in fabric. Certain physical properties of the fabric were also modeled using these two parameters.

Keywords: Compression, sportswear, stretch and recovery, statistical model, kikuhime.

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Authors: Vahid Hosseinpour, Mohammad Kazemini, Alireza Mohammadrezaee

Abstract:

carbonylation of methanol in homogenous phase is one of the major routesfor production of acetic acid. Amongst group VIII metal catalysts used in this process iridium has displayed the best capabilities. To investigate effect of operating parameters like: temperature, pressure, methyl iodide, methyl acetate, iridium, ruthenium, and water concentrations on the reaction rate, experimental design for this system based upon central composite design (CCD) was utilized. Statistical rate equation developed by this method contained individual, interactions and curvature effects of parameters on the reaction rate. The model with p-value less than 0.0001 and R2 values greater than 0.9; confirmeda satisfactory fitness of the experimental and theoretical studies. In other words, the developed model and experimental data obtained passed all diagnostic tests establishing this model as a statistically significant.

Keywords: Acetic Acid, Carbonylation of Methanol, Central Composite Design, Experimental Design, Iridium/Ruthenium

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Authors: Mauro Giacomini, Stefania Bertone, Carlo Mansi, Pietro Dulbecco, Vincenzo Savarino

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The prevalence of non organic constipation differs from country to country and the reliability of the estimate rates is uncertain. Moreover, the clinical relevance of subdividing the heterogeneous functional constipation disorders into pre-defined subgroups is largely unknown.. Aim: to estimate the prevalence of constipation in a population-based sample and determine whether clinical subgroups can be identified. An age and gender stratified sample population from 5 Italian cities was evaluated using a previously validated questionnaire. Data mining by cluster analysis was used to determine constipation subgroups. Results: 1,500 complete interviews were obtained from 2,083 contacted households (72%). Self-reported constipation correlated poorly with symptombased constipation found in 496 subjects (33.1%). Cluster analysis identified four constipation subgroups which correlated to subgroups identified according to pre-defined symptom criteria. Significant differences in socio-demographics and lifestyle were observed among subgroups.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, constipation, data mining, statistical analysis.

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Authors: O. Yavuz, L. Ozyilmaz

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HIV-1 genome is highly heterogeneous. Due to this variation, features of HIV-I genome is in a wide range. For this reason, the ability to infection of the virus changes depending on different chemokine receptors. From this point of view, R5 HIV viruses use CCR5 coreceptor while X4 viruses use CXCR5 and R5X4 viruses can utilize both coreceptors. Recently, in Bioinformatics, R5X4 viruses have been studied to classify by using the experiments on HIV-1 genome. In this study, R5X4 type of HIV viruses were classified using Auto Regressive (AR) model through Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). The statistical data of R5X4, R5 and X4 viruses was analyzed by using signal processing methods and ANNs. Accessible residues of these virus sequences were obtained and modeled by AR model since the dimension of residues is large and different from each other. Finally the pre-processed data was used to evolve various ANN structures for determining R5X4 viruses. Furthermore ROC analysis was applied to ANNs to show their real performances. The results indicate that R5X4 viruses successfully classified with high sensitivity and specificity values training and testing ROC analysis for RBF, which gives the best performance among ANN structures.

Keywords: Auto-Regressive Model, HIV, Neural Networks, ROC Analysis.

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Authors: Salman Iqbal

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Knowledge management (KM) literature has mainly focused on the antecedents of KM. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of specific human resource management (HRM) practices on employee knowledge sharing and its outcome as individual knowledge capability. Based on previous literature, a model is proposed for the study and hypotheses are formulated. The cross-sectional dataset comes from a sample of 19 knowledge intensive firms (KIFs). This study has run an item parceling technique followed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) on the latent constructs of the research model. Employees’ collaboration and their interpersonal trust can help to improve their knowledge sharing behaviour and knowledge capability within organisations. This study suggests that in future, by using a larger sample, better statistical insight is possible. The findings of this study are beneficial for scholars, policy makers and practitioners. The empirical results of this study are entirely based on employees’ perceptions and make a significant research contribution, given there is a dearth of empirical research focusing on the subcontinent.

Keywords: Employees’ collaboration, individual knowledge capability, knowledge sharing, monetary rewards, structural equation modelling.

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Authors: Tijani Delleji, Mourad Zribi, Ahmed Ben Hamida

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This paper discusses EM algorithm and Bootstrap approach combination applied for the improvement of the satellite image fusion process. This novel satellite image fusion method based on estimation theory EM algorithm and reinforced by Bootstrap approach was successfully implemented and tested. The sensor images are firstly split by a Bayesian segmentation method to determine a joint region map for the fused image. Then, we use the EM algorithm in conjunction with the Bootstrap approach to develop the bootstrap EM fusion algorithm, hence producing the fused targeted image. We proposed in this research to estimate the statistical parameters from some iterative equations of the EM algorithm relying on a reference of representative Bootstrap samples of images. Sizes of those samples are determined from a new criterion called 'hybrid criterion'. Consequently, the obtained results of our work show that using the Bootstrap EM (BEM) in image fusion improve performances of estimated parameters which involve amelioration of the fused image quality; and reduce the computing time during the fusion process.

Keywords: Satellite image fusion, Bayesian segmentation, Bootstrap approach, EM algorithm.

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Authors: Commander Sunil Tyagi

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Effectiveness of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) classifiers for fault diagnosis of rolling element bearings are presented in this paper. The characteristic features of vibration signals of rotating driveline that was run in its normal condition and with faults introduced were used as input to ANN and SVM classifiers. Simple statistical features such as standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis etc. of the time-domain vibration signal segments along with peaks of the signal and peak of power spectral density (PSD) are used as features to input the ANN and SVM classifier. The effect of preprocessing of the vibration signal by Discreet Wavelet Transform (DWT) prior to feature extraction is also studied. It is shown from the experimental results that the performance of SVM classifier in identification of bearing condition is better then ANN and pre-processing of vibration signal by DWT enhances the effectiveness of both ANN and SVM classifier

Keywords: ANN, Artificial Intelligence, Fault Diagnosis, Pattern Recognition, Rolling Element Bearing, SVM. Wavelet Transform

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Authors: Fares Innal, Yves Dutuit, Mourad Chebila

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The object of this work is the probabilistic performance evaluation of safety instrumented systems (SIS), i.e. the average probability of dangerous failure on demand (PFD_avg) and the average frequency of failure (PFH), taking into account the uncertainties related to the different parameters that come into play: failure rate (λ), common cause failure proportion (β), diagnostic coverage (DC)... This leads to an accurate and safe assessment of the safety integrity level (SIL) inherent to the safety function performed by such systems. This aim is in keeping with the requirement of the IEC 61508 standard with respect to handling uncertainty. To do this, we propose an approach that combines (1) Monte Carlo simulation and (2) fuzzy sets. Indeed, the first method is appropriate where representative statistical data are available (using pdf of the relating parameters), while the latter applies in the case characterized by vague and subjective information (using membership function). The proposed approach is fully supported with a suitable computer code.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets, Monte Carlo simulation, Safety instrumented system, Safety integrity level.

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Authors: Rania Alshikhe, Vinita Jindal

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Digital innovation has played a crucial role in managing smart transportation. For this, big trajectory data collected from trav-eling vehicles, such as taxis through installed global positioning sys-tem (GPS)-enabled devices can be utilized. It offers an unprecedented opportunity to trace the movements of vehicles in fine spatiotemporal granularity. This paper aims to explore big trajectory data to measure the travel efficiency of road networks using the proposed statistical travel efficiency measure (STEM) across an entire city. Further, it identifies the cause of low travel efficiency by proposed least square approximation network-based causality exploration (LANCE). Finally, the resulting data analysis reveals the causes of low travel efficiency, along with the road segments that need to be optimized to improve the traffic conditions and thus minimize the average travel time from given point A to point B in the road network. Obtained results show that our proposed approach outperforms the baseline algorithms for measuring the travel efficiency of the road network.

Keywords: GPS trajectory, road network, taxi trips, digital map, big data, STEM, LANCE

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Authors: Ayesha Batool, Saghir Ahmad, Abid Hussain Ch.

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The art of the examination is probably the most difficult one in the whole range of educational practices. Semester system is the system of examination, which is set with an institute by its own teachers. Annual system is the system of examination, which is constructed and administrated by some agency outside the institute, it enables the teacher to estimate the effectiveness of the instruction, and students to estimate the progress made by them. On the other hand, semester system of examinations requires following the curriculum strictly and methods of teaching are to be employed by the choice of teachers. The main purpose of the study was to investigate university students’ perceptions regarding the effectiveness of semester system and annual system. The study was quantitative in nature. The sample consisted of 200 students. A five point Likert type scale was used to collect the data. The statistical measures like frequencies, mean, standard deviation, and One Way ANOVA test were applied to analyze the data. The major findings of the study indicated that in semester system students do not spend much time in political activities and develop their study habits. It also revealed that annual system of examination does not satisfy the educational aspirations of the students.

Keywords: Effectiveness, semester system, annual system.

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Authors: M. Fadlallah, G. Ghibaudo, C. G. Theodorou

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The dynamic variation in memory devices such as the Static Random Access Memory can give errors in read or write operations. In this paper, the effect of low-frequency and random telegraph noise on the dynamic variation of one SRAM cell is detailed. The effect on circuit noise, speed, and length of time of processing is examined, using the Supply Read Retention Voltage and the Read Static Noise Margin. New test run methods are also developed. The obtained results simulation shows the importance of noise caused by dynamic variation, and the impact of Random Telegraph noise on SRAM variability is examined by evaluating the statistical distributions of Random Telegraph noise amplitude in the pull-up, pull-down. The threshold voltage mismatch between neighboring cell transistors due to intrinsic fluctuations typically contributes to larger reductions in static noise margin. Also the contribution of each of the SRAM transistor to total dynamic variation has been identified.

Keywords: Low-frequency noise, Random Telegraph Noise, Dynamic Variation, SRRV.

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Authors: J. P. Dubois

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Stochastic modeling of network traffic is an area of significant research activity for current and future broadband communication networks. Multimedia traffic is statistically characterized by a bursty variable bit rate (VBR) profile. In this paper, we develop an improved model for uniform activity level video sources in ATM using a doubly stochastic autoregressive model driven by an underlying spatial point process. We then examine a number of burstiness metrics such as the peak-to-average ratio (PAR), the temporal autocovariance function (ACF) and the traffic measurements histogram. We found that the former measure is most suitable for capturing the burstiness of single scene video traffic. In the last phase of this work, we analyse statistical multiplexing of several constant scene video sources. This proved, expectedly, to be advantageous with respect to reducing the burstiness of the traffic, as long as the sources are statistically independent. We observed that the burstiness was rapidly diminishing, with the largest gain occuring when only around 5 sources are multiplexed. The novel model used in this paper for characterizing uniform activity video was thus found to be an accurate model.

Keywords: AR, ATM, burstiness, doubly stochastic, statisticalmultiplexing.

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Authors: Javier Parra-Domínguez, Juan Manuel Corchado

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At present, public efficiency is a concept that intends to maximize return on public investment focus on minimizing the use of resources and maximizing the outputs. The concept takes into account statistical criteria drawn up according to techniques such as DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis). The purpose of the current work is to consider, more precisely, the theoretical application of CBR (Case-Based Reasoning) from economics and computer science, as a preliminary step to improving the efficiency of law enforcement agencies (public sector). With the aim of increasing the efficiency of the public sector, we have entered into a phase whose main objective is the implementation of new technologies. Our main conclusion is that the application of computer techniques, such as CBR, has become key to the efficiency of the public sector, which continues to require economic valuation based on methodologies such as DEA. As a theoretical result and conclusion, the incorporation of CBR systems will reduce the number of inputs and increase, theoretically, the number of outputs generated based on previous computer knowledge.

Keywords: Case-based reasoning, knowledge, police, public efficiency.

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Authors: Renáta Iváncsy, Sándor Juhász

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Web usage mining has become a popular research area, as a huge amount of data is available online. These data can be used for several purposes, such as web personalization, web structure enhancement, web navigation prediction etc. However, the raw log files are not directly usable; they have to be preprocessed in order to transform them into a suitable format for different data mining tasks. One of the key issues in the preprocessing phase is to identify web users. Identifying users based on web log files is not a straightforward problem, thus various methods have been developed. There are several difficulties that have to be overcome, such as client side caching, changing and shared IP addresses and so on. This paper presents three different methods for identifying web users. Two of them are the most commonly used methods in web log mining systems, whereas the third on is our novel approach that uses a complex cookie-based method to identify web users. Furthermore we also take steps towards identifying the individuals behind the impersonal web users. To demonstrate the efficiency of the new method we developed an implementation called Web Activity Tracking (WAT) system that aims at a more precise distinction of web users based on log data. We present some statistical analysis created by the WAT on real data about the behavior of the Hungarian web users and a comprehensive analysis and comparison of the three methods

Keywords: Data preparation, Tracking individuals, Web useridentification, Web usage mining

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Authors: Bashar Albaalbaki, Roger E. Khayat

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This work is a comparative study on the effect of Delaunay triangulation algorithms on discretization error for conduction-convection conservation problems. A structured triangulation and many unstructured Delaunay triangulations using three popular algorithms for node placement strategies are used. The numerical method employed is the vertex-centered finite volume method. It is found that when the computational domain can be meshed using a structured triangulation, the discretization error is lower for structured triangulations compared to unstructured ones for only low Peclet number values, i.e. when conduction is dominant. However, as the Peclet number is increased and convection becomes more significant, the unstructured triangulations reduce the discretization error. Also, no statistical correlation between triangulation angle extremums and the discretization error is found using 200 samples of randomly generated Delaunay and non-Delaunay triangulations. Thus, the angle extremums cannot be an indicator of the discretization error on their own and need to be combined with other triangulation quality measures, which is the subject of further studies.

Keywords: Conduction-convection problems, Delaunay triangulation, discretization error, finite volume method.

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Authors: Isaac Kofi Mensah

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Public sector organizations, ministries, departments and local government agencies are adopting e-government as a means to provide efficient and quality service delivery to citizens. The purpose of this research paper is to examine the extent to which perceived usefulness (PU) of e-government services moderates between perceived ease-of-use (PEOU) of e-government services and intention to use (IU) e-government services in Ghana. A structured research questionnaire instrument was developed and administered to 700 potential respondents in Ghana, of which 693 responded, representing 99% of the questionnaires distributed. The Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) was used as the theoretical framework for the study. The Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) was used to capture and analyze the data. The results indicate that even though predictors such as PU and PEOU are main determiners of citizens’ intention to adopt and use e-government services in Ghana, it failed to show that PEOU and IU e-government services in Ghana is significantly moderated by the PU of e-government services. The implication of this finding on theory and practice is further discussed.

Keywords: E-government services, intention to use, moderating role, perceived ease-of-use, perceived usefulness, Ghana, technology acceptance model.

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Authors: S. Qaedi, S. Seyedtabaii

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Non-Destructive evaluation of in-service power transformer condition is necessary for avoiding catastrophic failures. Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) is one of the important methods. Traditional, statistical and intelligent DGA approaches have been adopted for accurate classification of incipient fault sources. Unfortunately, there are not often enough faulty patterns required for sufficient training of intelligent systems. By bootstrapping the shortcoming is expected to be alleviated and algorithms with better classification success rates to be obtained. In this paper the performance of an artificial neural network, K-Nearest Neighbour and support vector machine methods using bootstrapped data are detailed and shown that while the success rate of the ANN algorithms improves remarkably, the outcome of the others do not benefit so much from the provided enlarged data space. For assessment, two databases are employed: IEC TC10 and a dataset collected from reported data in papers. High average test success rate well exhibits the remarkable outcome.

Keywords: Dissolved gas analysis, Transformer incipient fault, Artificial Neural Network, Support Vector Machine (SVM), KNearest Neighbor (KNN)

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Authors: Lina Wu, Wenyi Lu, Ye Li

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Regarding heavy video game players for boys and super online chat lovers for girls as a symbolic phrase in the current adolescent culture, this project of data analysis verifies the displacement effect on deteriorating mathematics performance. To evaluate correlation or regression coefficients between a factor of playing video games or chatting online and mathematics performance compared with other factors, we use multivariate analysis technique and take gender difference into account. We find the most important reason for the negative sign of the displacement effect on mathematics performance due to students’ poor academic background. Statistical analysis methods in this project could be applied to study internet users’ academic performance from the high school education to the college education.

Keywords: Correlation coefficients, displacement effect, gender difference, multivariate analysis technique, regression coefficients.

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Authors: Othman Belgassim, Krzysztof Jemielniak

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The analysis of Acoustic Emission (AE) signal generated from metal cutting processes has often approached statistically. This is due to the stochastic nature of the emission signal as a result of factors effecting the signal from its generation through transmission and sensing. Different techniques are applied in this manner, each of which is suitable for certain processes. In metal cutting where the emission generated by the deformation process is rather continuous, an appropriate method for analysing the AE signal based on the root mean square (RMS) of the signal is often used and is suitable for use with the conventional signal processing systems. The aim of this paper is to set a strategy in tool failure detection in turning processes via the statistic analysis of the AE generated from the cutting zone. The strategy is based on the investigation of the distribution moments of the AE signal at predetermined sampling. The skews and kurtosis of these distributions are the key elements in the detection. A normal (Gaussian) distribution has first been suggested then this was eliminated due to insufficiency. The so called Beta distribution was then considered, this has been used with an assumed β density function and has given promising results with regard to chipping and tool breakage detection.

Keywords: AE signal, skew, kurtosis, tool failure

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Authors: Ammar Mahjoubi, Ridha Fethi Mechlouch, Belgacem Mahdhaoui, Ammar Ben Brahim

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This purpose of this paper is to develop and validate a model to accurately predict the cell temperature of a PV module that adapts to various mounting configurations, mounting locations, and climates while only requiring readily available data from the module manufacturer. Results from this model are also compared to results from published cell temperature models. The models were used to predict real-time performance from a PV water pumping systems in the desert of Medenine, south of Tunisia using 60-min intervals of measured performance data during one complete year. Statistical analysis of the predicted results and measured data highlight possible sources of errors and the limitations and/or adequacy of existing models, to describe the temperature and efficiency of PV-cells and consequently, the accuracy of performance of PV water pumping systems prediction models.

Keywords: Temperature of a photovoltaic module, Predicted models, PV water pumping systems efficiency, Simulation, Desert of southern Tunisia.

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Authors: Jaime Martín-de-Nicolás, David Mata-Moya, Nerea del-Rey-Maestre, Pedro Gómez-del-Hoyo, María-Pilar Jarabo-Amores

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Ship detection is nowadays quite an important issue in tasks related to sea traffic control, fishery management and ship search and rescue. Although it has traditionally been carried out by patrol ships or aircrafts, coverage and weather conditions and sea state can become a problem. Synthetic aperture radars can surpass these coverage limitations and work under any climatological condition. A fast CFAR ship detector based on a robust statistical modeling of sea clutter with respect to sea states in SAR images is used. In this paper, the minimum SNR required to obtain a given detection probability with a given false alarm rate for any sea state is determined. A Gaussian target model using real SAR data is considered. Results show that SNR does not depend heavily on the class considered. Provided there is some variation in the backscattering of targets in SAR imagery, the detection probability is limited and a post-processing stage based on morphology would be suitable.

Keywords: SAR, generalized gamma distribution, detection curves, radar detection.

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Authors: XianYu Zhao, JinXu Guo

Abstract:

Recently, low-dose computed tomography (CT) has become highly desirable due to increasing attention to the potential risks of excessive radiation. For low-dose CT imaging, ensuring image quality while reducing radiation dose is a major challenge. To facilitate low-dose CT imaging, we propose an improved statistical iterative reconstruction scheme based on the Penalized Weighted Least Squares (PWLS) standard combined with total variation (TV) minimization and sparse dictionary learning (DL) to improve reconstruction performance. We call this method "PWLS-TV-DL". In order to evaluate the PWLS-TV-DL method, we performed experiments on digital phantoms and physical phantoms, respectively. The experimental results show that our method is in image quality and calculation. The efficiency is superior to other methods, which confirms the potential of its low-dose CT imaging.

Keywords: Low dose computed tomography, penalized weighted least squares, total variation, dictionary learning.

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Authors: N. P. Singh, Brahmjit Singh

Abstract:

CDMA cellular networks support soft handover, which guarantees the continuity of wireless services and enhanced communication quality. Cellular networks support multimedia services under varied propagation environmental conditions. In this paper, we have shown the effect of characteristic parameters of the cellular environments on the soft handover performance. We consider path loss exponent, standard deviation of shadow fading and correlation coefficient of shadow fading as the characteristic parameters of the radio propagation environment. A very useful statistical measure for characterizing the performance of mobile radio system is the probability of outage. It is shown through numerical results that above parameters have decisive effect on the probability of outage and hence the overall performance of the soft handover algorithm.

Keywords: CDMA, Correlation coefficient, Path loss exponent, Probability of outage, Soft handover.

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Authors: Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan, Naga Shashidhar, Xiaoxiong Zhong

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During the process of compaction in Hot-Mix Asphalt (HMA) mixtures, the distance between aggregate particles decreases as they come together and eliminate air-voids. By measuring the inter-particle distances in a cut-section of a HMA sample the degree of compaction can be estimated. For this, a calibration curve is generated by computer simulation technique when the gradation and asphalt content of the HMA mixture are known. A two-dimensional cross section of HMA specimen was simulated using the mixture design information (gradation, asphalt content and air-void content). Nearest neighbor distance methods such as Delaunay triangulation were used to study the changes in inter-particle distance and area distribution during the process of compaction in HMA. Such computer simulations would enable making several hundreds of repetitions in a short period of time without the necessity to compact and analyze laboratory specimens in order to obtain good statistics on the parameters defined. The distributions for the statistical parameters based on computer simulations showed similar trends as those of laboratory specimens.

Keywords: Computer simulations, Hot-Mix Asphalt (HMA), inter-particle distance, image analysis, nearest neighbor

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Authors: Mária Stachová, Lukáš Sobíšek

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Data mining incorporates a group of statistical methods used to analyze a set of information, or a data set. It operates with models and algorithms, which are powerful tools with the great potential. They can help people to understand the patterns in certain chunk of information so it is obvious that the data mining tools have a wide area of applications. For example in the theoretical chemistry data mining tools can be used to predict moleculeproperties or improve computer-assisted drug design. Classification analysis is one of the major data mining methodologies. The aim of thecontribution is to create a classification model, which would be able to deal with a huge data set with high accuracy. For this purpose logistic regression, Bayesian logistic regression and random forest models were built using R software. TheBayesian logistic regression in Latent GOLD software was created as well. These classification methods belong to supervised learning methods. It was necessary to reduce data matrix dimension before construct models and thus the factor analysis (FA) was used. Those models were applied to predict the biological activity of molecules, potential new drug candidates.

Keywords: data mining, classification, drug design, QSAR

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Authors: L. J. de Bessa Neto, V. S. Filho, J. V. Ferreira Nunes, G. C. Bergamo

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There are many situations in which human activities have significant effects on the environment. Damage to the ozone layer is one of them. The objective of this work is to use the Least Squares Method, considering the linear, exponential, logarithmic, power and polynomial models of the second degree, to analyze through the coefficient of determination (R²), which model best fits the behavior of the chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b) in parts per trillion between 1992 and 2018, as well as estimates of future concentrations between 5 and 10 periods, i.e. the concentration of this pollutant in the years 2023 and 2028 in each of the adjustments. A total of 809 observations of the concentration of HCFC-142b in one of the monitoring stations of gases precursors of the deterioration of the ozone layer during the period of time studied were selected and, using these data, the statistical software Excel was used for make the scatter plots of each of the adjustment models. With the development of the present study, it was observed that the logarithmic fit was the model that best fit the data set, since besides having a significant R² its adjusted curve was compatible with the natural trend curve of the phenomenon.

Keywords: Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b), ozone (O3), least squares method, regression models.

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Authors: N. Gigauri, V. Kukhalashvili, V. Sesadze, A. Surmava, L. Intskirveli

Abstract:

Pollution of the Tbilisi atmospheric air with PM2.5 and PM10 in usual and pandemic situations by using the data of 5 stationary observation points is investigated. The values of the statistical characteristic parameters of PM in the atmosphere of Tbilisi are analyzed and trend graphs are constructed. By means of analysis of pollution levels in the quarantine and usual periods the proportion of vehicle traffic in pollution of city is estimated. Experimental measurements of PM2.5, PM10 in the atmosphere have been carried out in different districts of the city and map of the distribution of their concentrations were constructed. It is shown that maximum pollution values are recorded in the city center and along major motorways. It is shown that the average monthly concentrations vary in the range of 0.6-1.6 Maximum Permissible Concentration (MPC). Average daily values of concentration vary at 2-4 days intervals. The distribution of PM10 generated as a result of traffic is numerical modeled. The modeling results are compared with the observation data.

Keywords: Air pollution, numerical modeling, PM2.5, PM10.

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