Search results for: probability theory.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2088

Search results for: probability theory.

1218 SFCL Location Selection Considering Reliability Indices

Authors: Wook-Won Kim, Sung-Yul Kim, Jin-O Kim

Abstract:

The fault current levels through the electric devices have a significant impact on failure probability. New fault current results in exceeding the rated capacity of circuit breaker and switching equipments and changes operation characteristic of overcurrent relay. In order to solve these problems, SFCL (Superconducting Fault Current Limiter) has rising as one of new alternatives so as to improve these problems. A fault current reduction differs depending on installed location. Therefore, a location of SFCL is very important. Also, SFCL decreases the fault current, and it prevents surrounding protective devices to be exposed to fault current, it then will bring a change of reliability. In this paper, we propose method which determines the optimal location when SFCL is installed in power system. In addition, the reliability about the power system which SFCL was installed is evaluated. The efficiency and effectiveness of this method are also shown by numerical examples and the reliability indices are evaluated in this study at each load points. These results show a reliability change of a system when SFCL was installed.

Keywords: Superconducting Fault Current Limiter, OptimalLocation, Reliability

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1653
1217 The Cardiac Diagnostic Prediction Applied to a Designed Holter

Authors: Leonardo Juan Ramírez López, Javier Oswaldo Rodriguez Velasquez

Abstract:

We have designed a Holter that measures the heart´s activity for over 24 hours, implemented a prediction methodology, and generate alarms as well as indicators to patients and treating physicians. Various diagnostic advances have been developed in clinical cardiology thanks to Holter implementation; however, their interpretation has largely been conditioned to clinical analysis and measurements adjusted to diverse population characteristics, thus turning it into a subjective examination. This, however, requires vast population studies to be validated that, in turn, have not achieved the ultimate goal: mortality prediction. Given this context, our Insight Research Group developed a mathematical methodology that assesses cardiac dynamics through entropy and probability, creating a numerical and geometrical attractor which allows quantifying the normalcy of chronic and acute disease as well as the evolution between such states, and our Tigum Research Group developed a holter device with 12 channels and advanced computer software. This has been shown in different contexts with 100% sensitivity and specificity results.

Keywords: Entropy, mathematical, prediction, cardiac, holter, attractor.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 674
1216 Use of Social Media in PR: A Change of Trend

Authors: Tang Mui Joo, Chan Eang Teng

Abstract:

The use of social media has become more defined. It has been widely used for the purpose of business. More marketers are now using social media as tools to enhance their businesses. Whereas on the other hand, there are more and more people spending their time through mobile apps to be engaged in the social media sites like YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and others. Social media has even become common in Public Relations (PR). It has become number one platform for creating and sharing content. In view to this, social media has changed the rules in PR where it brings new challenges and opportunities to the profession. Although corporate websites, chat-rooms, email customer response facilities and electronic news release distribution are now viewed as standard aspects of PR practice, many PR practitioners are still struggling with the impact of new media though the implementation of social media is potentially reducing the cost of communication. It is to the point that PR practitioners are not fully embracing new media, they are ill-equipped to do so and they have a fear of the technology. Somehow that social media has become a new style of communication that is characterized by conversation and community. It has become a platform that allows individuals to interact with one another and build relationship among each other. Therefore, in the use of business world, consumers are able to interact with those companies that have joined any social media. Based on their experiences with social networking site interactions, they are also exposed to personal interaction while communicating. This paper is to study the impact of social media to PR. This paper discovers the potential changes of PR practices in a developing country like Malaysia. Eventually the study reflects on how PR practitioners are actually using social media in the country. This paper is based on two theories in its development of this research foundation. Media Ecology Theory is to support the impact and changes to PR. Social Penetration Theory is to reflect on how the use of social media is among PRs. This research is using survey with PR practitioners in its data collection. The results have shown that PR professionals value social media more than they actually use it and the way of organizations communicate had been changed due to the transformation of social media.

Keywords: New media, social media, PR.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6046
1215 The Effect of Socio-Affective Variables in the Relationship between Organizational Trust and Employee Turnover Intention

Authors: Paula A. Cruise, Carvell McLeary

Abstract:

Employee turnover leads to lowered productivity, decreased morale and work quality, and psychological effects associated with employee separation and replacement. Yet, it remains unknown why talented employees willingly withdraw from organizations. This uncertainty is worsened as studies; a) priorities organizational over individual predictors resulting in restriction in range in turnover measurement; b) focus on actual rather than intended turnover thereby limiting conceptual understanding of the turnover construct and its relationship with other variables and; c) produce inconsistent findings across cultures, contexts and industries despite a clear need for a unified perspective. The current study addressed these gaps by adopting the theory of planned behavior (TPB) framework to examine socio-cognitive factors in organizational trust and individual turnover intentions among bankers and energy employees in Jamaica. In a comparative study of n=369 [nbank= 264; male=57 (22.73%); nenergy =105; male =45 (42.86)], it was hypothesized that organizational trust was a predictor of employee turnover intention, and the effect of individual, group, cognitive and socio-affective variables varied across industry. Findings from structural equation modelling confirmed the hypothesis, with a model of both cognitive and socio-affective variables being a better fit [CMIN (χ2) = 800.067, df = 364, p ≤ .000; CFI = 0.950; RMSEA = 0.057 with 90% C.I. (0.052 - 0.062); PCLOSE = 0.016; PNFI = 0.818 in predicting turnover intention. The findings are discussed in relation to socio-cognitive components of trust models and predicting negative employee behaviors across cultures and industries.

Keywords: Context-specific organizational trust, cross-cultural psychology, theory of planned behavior, employee turnover intention.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1056
1214 Identification of Aircraft Gas Turbine Engines Temperature Condition

Authors: Pashayev A., Askerov D., C. Ardil, Sadiqov R., Abdullayev P.

Abstract:

Groundlessness of application probability-statistic methods are especially shown at an early stage of the aviation GTE technical condition diagnosing, when the volume of the information has property of the fuzzy, limitations, uncertainty and efficiency of application of new technology Soft computing at these diagnosing stages by using the fuzzy logic and neural networks methods. It is made training with high accuracy of multiple linear and nonlinear models (the regression equations) received on the statistical fuzzy data basis. At the information sufficiency it is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and nonlinear generalized models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive least squares method (LSM)). As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine D30KU-154 technical condition at height H=10600 m was made.

Keywords: Identification of a technical condition, aviation gasturbine engine, fuzzy logic and neural networks.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1633
1213 Performance Comparison of ADTree and Naive Bayes Algorithms for Spam Filtering

Authors: Thanh Nguyen, Andrei Doncescu, Pierre Siegel

Abstract:

Classification is an important data mining technique and could be used as data filtering in artificial intelligence. The broad application of classification for all kind of data leads to be used in nearly every field of our modern life. Classification helps us to put together different items according to the feature items decided as interesting and useful. In this paper, we compare two classification methods Naïve Bayes and ADTree use to detect spam e-mail. This choice is motivated by the fact that Naive Bayes algorithm is based on probability calculus while ADTree algorithm is based on decision tree. The parameter settings of the above classifiers use the maximization of true positive rate and minimization of false positive rate. The experiment results present classification accuracy and cost analysis in view of optimal classifier choice for Spam Detection. It is point out the number of attributes to obtain a tradeoff between number of them and the classification accuracy.

Keywords: Classification, data mining, spam filtering, naive Bayes, decision tree.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1467
1212 Identification of Aircraft Gas Turbine Engine's Temperature Condition

Authors: Pashayev A., Askerov D., C. Ardil, Sadiqov R., Abdullayev P.

Abstract:

Groundlessness of application probability-statistic methods are especially shown at an early stage of the aviation GTE technical condition diagnosing, when the volume of the information has property of the fuzzy, limitations, uncertainty and efficiency of application of new technology Soft computing at these diagnosing stages by using the fuzzy logic and neural networks methods. It is made training with high accuracy of multiple linear and nonlinear models (the regression equations) received on the statistical fuzzy data basis. At the information sufficiency it is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and nonlinear generalized models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive least squares method (LSM)). As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine D30KU-154 technical condition at height H=10600 m was made.

Keywords: Identification of a technical condition, aviation gasturbine engine, fuzzy logic and neural networks.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1647
1211 Probabilistic Characteristics of older PR Frames in the Mid-America Earthquake Region

Authors: Do-Hwan Kim, Roberto Leon

Abstract:

Probabilistic characteristics of seismic responses of the Partially Restrained connection rotation (PRCR) and panel zone deformation (PZD) installed in older steel moment frames were investigated in accordance with statistical inference in decision-making process. The 4, 6 and 8 story older steel moment frames with clip angle and T-stub connections were designed and analyzed using 2%/50yrs ground motions in four cities of the Mid-America earthquake region. The probability density function and cumulative distribution function of PRCR and PZD were determined by the goodness-of-fit tests based on probabilistic parameters measured from the results of the nonlinear time-history analyses. The obtained probabilistic parameters and distributions can be used to find out what performance level mainly PR connections and panel zones satisfy and how many PR connections and panel zones experience a serious damage under the Mid-America ground motions.

Keywords: Mid-America earthquake, Panel zone, PR connection, Probabilistic characteristics, seismic performance

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1390
1210 Analytical and Numerical Results for Free Vibration of Laminated Composites Plates

Authors: Mohamed Amine Ben Henni, Taher Hassaine Daouadji, Boussad Abbes, Yu Ming Li, Fazilay Abbes

Abstract:

The reinforcement and repair of concrete structures by bonding composite materials have become relatively common operations. Different types of composite materials can be used: carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) as well as functionally graded material (FGM). The development of analytical and numerical models describing the mechanical behavior of structures in civil engineering reinforced by composite materials is necessary. These models will enable engineers to select, design, and size adequate reinforcements for the various types of damaged structures. This study focuses on the free vibration behavior of orthotropic laminated composite plates using a refined shear deformation theory. In these models, the distribution of transverse shear stresses is considered as parabolic satisfying the zero-shear stress condition on the top and bottom surfaces of the plates without using shear correction factors. In this analysis, the equation of motion for simply supported thick laminated rectangular plates is obtained by using the Hamilton’s principle. The accuracy of the developed model is demonstrated by comparing our results with solutions derived from other higher order models and with data found in the literature. Besides, a finite-element analysis is used to calculate the natural frequencies of laminated composite plates and is compared with those obtained by the analytical approach.

Keywords: Composites materials, laminated composite plate, shear deformation theory of plates, finite element analysis, free vibration.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 826
1209 A Numerical Strategy to Design Maneuverable Micro-Biomedical Swimming Robots Based on Biomimetic Flagellar Propulsion

Authors: Arash Taheri, Meysam Mohammadi-Amin, Seyed Hossein Moosavy

Abstract:

Medical applications are among the most impactful areas of microrobotics. The ultimate goal of medical microrobots is to reach currently inaccessible areas of the human body and carry out a host of complex operations such as minimally invasive surgery (MIS), highly localized drug delivery, and screening for diseases at their very early stages. Miniature, safe and efficient propulsion systems hold the key to maturing this technology but they pose significant challenges. A new type of propulsion developed recently, uses multi-flagella architecture inspired by the motility mechanism of prokaryotic microorganisms. There is a lack of efficient methods for designing this type of propulsion system. The goal of this paper is to overcome the lack and this way, a numerical strategy is proposed to design multi-flagella propulsion systems. The strategy is based on the implementation of the regularized stokeslet and rotlet theory, RFT theory and new approach of “local corrected velocity". The effects of shape parameters and angular velocities of each flagellum on overall flow field and on the robot net forces and moments are considered. Then a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network is designed and employed to adjust the angular velocities of the motors for propulsion control. The proposed method applied successfully on a sample configuration and useful demonstrative results is obtained.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Network, Biomimetic Microrobots, Flagellar Propulsion, Swimming Robots.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1878
1208 Video-Based Face Recognition Based On State-Space Model

Authors: Cheng-Chieh Chiang, Yi-Chia Chan, Greg C. Lee

Abstract:

This paper proposes a video-based framework for face recognition to identify which faces appear in a video sequence. Our basic idea is like a tracking task - to track a selection of person candidates over time according to the observing visual features of face images in video frames. Hence, we employ the state-space model to formulate video-based face recognition by dividing this problem into two parts: the likelihood and the transition measures. The likelihood measure is to recognize whose face is currently being observed in video frames, for which two-dimensional linear discriminant analysis is employed. The transition measure estimates the probability of changing from an incorrect recognition at the previous stage to the correct person at the current stage. Moreover, extra nodes associated with head nodes are incorporated into our proposed state-space model. The experimental results are also provided to demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of our proposed approach.

Keywords: 2DLDA, face recognition, state-space model, likelihood measure, transition measure.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1651
1207 Modelling Conditional Volatility of Saving Rate by a Time-Varying Parameter Model

Authors: Katleho D. Makatjane, Kalebe M. Kalebe

Abstract:

The present paper used time-varying parameters which are based on the score function of a probability density at time t to model volatility of saving rate. We used a scaled likelihood function to update the parameters of the model overtime. Our results revealed high diligence of time-varying since the location parameter is greater than zero. Furthermore, we discovered a leptokurtic condition on saving rate’s distribution. Kapetanios, Shin-Shell Nonlinear Augmented Dickey-Fuller (KSS-NADF) test showed that the saving rate has a nonlinear unit root; therefore, it can be modeled by a generalised autoregressive score (GAS) model. Additionally, value at risk (VaR) and conditional tail expectation (CTE) indicate that 99% of the time people in Lesotho are saving more than spending. This puts the economy in high risk of not expanding. Therefore, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of Lesotho should revise their monetary policies towards this high saving rates risk.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score, time-varying, saving rate, Lesotho.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 585
1206 A Framework of Monte Carlo Simulation for Examining the Uncertainty-Investment Relationship

Authors: George Yungchih Wang

Abstract:

This paper argues that increased uncertainty, in certain situations, may actually encourage investment. Since earlier studies mostly base their arguments on the assumption of geometric Brownian motion, the study extends the assumption to alternative stochastic processes, such as mixed diffusion-jump, mean-reverting process, and jump amplitude process. A general approach of Monte Carlo simulation is developed to derive optimal investment trigger for the situation that the closed-form solution could not be readily obtained under the assumption of alternative process. The main finding is that the overall effect of uncertainty on investment is interpreted by the probability of investing, and the relationship appears to be an invested U-shaped curve between uncertainty and investment. The implication is that uncertainty does not always discourage investment even under several sources of uncertainty. Furthermore, high-risk projects are not always dominated by low-risk projects because the high-risk projects may have a positive realization effect on encouraging investment.

Keywords: real options, geometric Brownian motion, mixeddiffusion-jump process, mean- reverting process, jump amplitudeprocess

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1521
1205 Integrating Decision Tree and Spatial Cluster Analysis for Landslide Susceptibility Zonation

Authors: Chien-Min Chu, Bor-Wen Tsai, Kang-Tsung Chang

Abstract:

Landslide susceptibility map delineates the potential zones for landslide occurrence. Previous works have applied multivariate methods and neural networks for mapping landslide susceptibility. This study proposed a new approach to integrate decision tree model and spatial cluster statistic for assessing landslide susceptibility spatially. A total of 2057 landslide cells were digitized for developing the landslide decision tree model. The relationships of landslides and instability factors were explicitly represented by using tree graphs in the model. The local Getis-Ord statistics were used to cluster cells with high landslide probability. The analytic result from the local Getis-Ord statistics was classed to create a map of landslide susceptibility zones. The map was validated using new landslide data with 482 cells. Results of validation show an accuracy rate of 86.1% in predicting new landslide occurrence. This indicates that the proposed approach is useful for improving landslide susceptibility mapping.

Keywords: Landslide susceptibility Zonation, Decision treemodel, Spatial cluster, Local Getis-Ord statistics.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1909
1204 Estimating the Effect of Fluid in Pressing Process

Authors: A. Movaghar, R. A. Mahdavinejad

Abstract:

To analyze the effect of various parameters of fluid on the material properties such as surface and depth defects and/or cracks, it is possible to determine the affection of pressure field on these specifications. Stress tensor analysis is also able to determine the points in which the probability of defection creation is more. Besides, from pressure field, it is possible to analyze the affection of various fluid specifications such as viscosity and density on defect created in the material. In this research, the concerned boundary conditions are analyzed first. Then the solution network and stencil used are mentioned. With the determination of relevant equation on the fluid flow between notch and matrix and their discretion according to the governed boundary conditions, these equations can be solved. Finally, with the variation creations on fluid parameters such as density and viscosity, the affection of these variations can be determined on pressure field. In this direction, the flowchart and solution algorithm with their results as vortex and current function contours for two conditions with most applications in pressing process are introduced and discussed.

Keywords: Pressing, notch, matrix, flow function, vortex.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 680
1203 Effective Relay Communication for Scalable Video Transmission

Authors: Jung Ah Park, Zhijie Zhao, Doug Young Suh, Joern Ostermann

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an effective relay communication for layered video transmission as an alternative to make the most of limited resources in a wireless communication network where loss often occurs. Relaying brings stable multimedia services to end clients, compared to multiple description coding (MDC). Also, retransmission of only parity data about one or more video layer using channel coder to the end client of the relay device is paramount to the robustness of the loss situation. Using these methods in resource-constrained environments, such as real-time user created content (UCC) with layered video transmission, can provide high-quality services even in a poor communication environment. Minimal services are also possible. The mathematical analysis shows that the proposed method reduced the probability of GOP loss rate compared to MDC and raptor code without relay. The GOP loss rate is about zero, while MDC and raptor code without relay have a GOP loss rate of 36% and 70% in case of 10% frame loss rate.

Keywords: Relay communication, Multiple Description Coding, Scalable Video Coding

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1418
1202 A new Heuristic Algorithm for the Dynamic Facility Layout Problem with Budget Constraint

Authors: Parham Azimi, Hamid Reza Charmchi

Abstract:

In this research, we have developed a new efficient heuristic algorithm for the dynamic facility layout problem with budget constraint (DFLPB). This heuristic algorithm combines two mathematical programming methods such as discrete event simulation and linear integer programming (IP) to obtain a near optimum solution. In the proposed algorithm, the non-linear model of the DFLP has been changed to a pure integer programming (PIP) model. Then, the optimal solution of the PIP model has been used in a simulation model that has been designed in a similar manner as the DFLP for determining the probability of assigning a facility to a location. After a sufficient number of runs, the simulation model obtains near optimum solutions. Finally, to verify the performance of the algorithm, several test problems have been solved. The results show that the proposed algorithm is more efficient in terms of speed and accuracy than other heuristic algorithms presented in previous works found in the literature.

Keywords: Budget constraint, Dynamic facility layout problem, Integer programming, Simulation

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1937
1201 A Bayesian Network Reliability Modeling for FlexRay Systems

Authors: Kuen-Long Leu, Yung-Yuan Chen, Chin-Long Wey, Jwu-E Chen, Chung-Hsien Hsu

Abstract:

The increasing importance of FlexRay systems in automotive domain inspires unceasingly relative researches. One primary issue among researches is to verify the reliability of FlexRay systems either from protocol aspect or from system design aspect. However, research rarely discusses the effect of network topology on the system reliability. In this paper, we will illustrate how to model the reliability of FlexRay systems with various network topologies by a well-known probabilistic reasoning technology, Bayesian Network. In this illustration, we especially investigate the effectiveness of error containment built in star topology and fault-tolerant midpoint synchronization algorithm adopted in FlexRay communication protocol. Through a FlexRay steer-by-wire case study, the influence of different topologies on the failure probability of the FlexRay steerby- wire system is demonstrated. The notable value of this research is to show that the Bayesian Network inference is a powerful and feasible method for the reliability assessment of FlexRay systems.

Keywords: Bayesian Network, FlexRay, fault tolerance, network topology, reliability.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2005
1200 Intelligent Agent Approach to the Control of Critical Infrastructure Networks

Authors: James D. Gadze, Niki Pissinou, Kia Makki

Abstract:

In this paper we propose an intelligent agent approach to control the electric power grid at a smaller granularity in order to give it self-healing capabilities. We develop a method using the influence model to transform transmission substations into information processing, analyzing and decision making (intelligent behavior) units. We also develop a wireless communication method to deliver real-time uncorrupted information to an intelligent controller in a power system environment. A combined networking and information theoretic approach is adopted in meeting both the delay and error probability requirements. We use a mobile agent approach in optimizing the achievable information rate vector and in the distribution of rates to users (sensors). We developed the concept and the quantitative tools require in the creation of cooperating semiautonomous subsystems which puts the electric grid on the path towards intelligent and self-healing system.

Keywords: Mobile agent, power system operation and control, real time, wireless communication.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1645
1199 Spreading Dynamics of a Viral Infection in a Complex Network

Authors: Khemanand Moheeput, Smita S. D. Goorah, Satish K. Ramchurn

Abstract:

We report a computational study of the spreading dynamics of a viral infection in a complex (scale-free) network. The final epidemic size distribution (FESD) was found to be unimodal or bimodal depending on the value of the basic reproductive number R0 . The FESDs occurred on time-scales long enough for intermediate-time epidemic size distributions (IESDs) to be important for control measures. The usefulness of R0 for deciding on the timeliness and intensity of control measures was found to be limited by the multimodal nature of the IESDs and by its inability to inform on the speed at which the infection spreads through the population. A reduction of the transmission probability at the hubs of the scale-free network decreased the occurrence of the larger-sized epidemic events of the multimodal distributions. For effective epidemic control, an early reduction in transmission at the index cell and its neighbors was essential.

Keywords: Basic reproductive number, epidemic control, scalefree network, viral infection.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1693
1198 Probabilistic Model Development for Project Performance Forecasting

Authors: Milad Eghtedari Naeini, Gholamreza Heravi

Abstract:

In this paper, based on the past project cost and time performance, a model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. This study presents a probabilistic project control concept to assure an acceptable forecast of project cost performance. In this concept project activities are classified into sub-groups entitled control accounts. Then obtain the Stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), for each sub-group and the project SS-Curve is obtained by summing sub-groups- SS-Curves. In this model, project cost uncertainties are considered through Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs required to complete the project at every selected time sections through project accomplishment, which are extracted from a variety of sources. Based on this model, after a percentage of the project progress, the project performance is measured via Earned Value Management to adjust the primary cost probability distribution functions. Then, accordingly the future project cost performance is predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method.

Keywords: Monte Carlo method, Probabilistic model, Project forecasting, Stochastic S-curve

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2675
1197 Monte Carlo Analysis and Fuzzy Sets for Uncertainty Propagation in SIS Performance Assessment

Authors: Fares Innal, Yves Dutuit, Mourad Chebila

Abstract:

The object of this work is the probabilistic performance evaluation of safety instrumented systems (SIS), i.e. the average probability of dangerous failure on demand (PFDavg) and the average frequency of failure (PFH), taking into account the uncertainties related to the different parameters that come into play: failure rate (λ), common cause failure proportion (β), diagnostic coverage (DC)... This leads to an accurate and safe assessment of the safety integrity level (SIL) inherent to the safety function performed by such systems. This aim is in keeping with the requirement of the IEC 61508 standard with respect to handling uncertainty. To do this, we propose an approach that combines (1) Monte Carlo simulation and (2) fuzzy sets. Indeed, the first method is appropriate where representative statistical data are available (using pdf of the relating parameters), while the latter applies in the case characterized by vague and subjective information (using membership function). The proposed approach is fully supported with a suitable computer code.

Keywords: Fuzzy sets, Monte Carlo simulation, Safety instrumented system, Safety integrity level.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2757
1196 Performance Analysis of an Adaptive Threshold Hybrid Double-Dwell System with Antenna Diversity for Acquisition in DS-CDMA Systems

Authors: H. Krouma, M. Barkat, K. Kemih, M. Benslama, Y. Yacine

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the analysis of the acquisition process for a hybrid double-dwell system with antenna diversity for DS-CDMA (direct sequence-code division multiple access) using an adaptive threshold. Acquisition systems with a fixed threshold value are unable to adapt to fast varying mobile communications environments and may result in a high false alarm rate, and/or low detection probability. Therefore, we propose an adaptively varying threshold scheme through the use of a cellaveraging constant false alarm rate (CA-CFAR) algorithm, which is well known in the field of radar detection. We derive exact expressions for the probabilities of detection and false alarm in Rayleigh fading channels. The mean acquisition time of the system under consideration is also derived. The performance of the system is analyzed and compared to that of a hybrid single dwell system.

Keywords: Adaptive threshold, hybrid double-dwell system, CA-CFAR algorithm, DS-CDMA.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1685
1195 Stability Analysis of a Tricore

Authors: C. M. De Marco Muscat-Fenech, A.M. Grech La Rosa

Abstract:

The application of stability theory has led to detailed studies of different types of vessels; however, the shortage of information relating to multihull vessels demanded further investigation. This study shows that the position of the hulls has a very influential effect on both the transverse and longitudinal stability of the tricore. HSC stability code is applied for the optimisation of the hull configurations. Such optimization criteria would undoubtedly aid the performance of the vessel for both commercial or leisure purposes

Keywords: Stability, Multihull, Tricore

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2874
1194 An Adaptive Opportunistic Transmission for Unlicensed Spectrum Sharing in Heterogeneous Networks

Authors: Daehyoung Kim, Pervez Khan, Hoon Kim

Abstract:

Efficient utilization of spectrum resources is a fundamental issue of wireless communications due to its scarcity. To improve the efficiency of spectrum utilization, the spectrum sharing for unlicensed bands is being regarded as one of key technologies in the next generation wireless networks. A number of schemes such as Listen-Before-Talk(LBT) and carrier sensor adaptive transmission (CSAT) have been suggested from this aspect, but more efficient sharing schemes are required for improving spectrum utilization efficiency. This work considers an opportunistic transmission approach and a dynamic Contention Window (CW) adjustment scheme for LTE-U users sharing the unlicensed spectrum with Wi-Fi, in order to enhance the overall system throughput. The decision criteria for the dynamic adjustment of CW are based on the collision evaluation, derived from the collision probability of the system. The overall performance can be improved due to the adaptive adjustment of the CW. Simulation results show that our proposed scheme outperforms the Distributed Coordination Function (DCF) mechanism of IEEE 802.11 MAC.

Keywords: Spectrum sharing, adaptive opportunistic transmission, unlicensed bands, heterogeneous networks.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1355
1193 A New Hybrid RMN Image Segmentation Algorithm

Authors: Abdelouahab Moussaoui, Nabila Ferahta, Victor Chen

Abstract:

The development of aid's systems for the medical diagnosis is not easy thing because of presence of inhomogeneities in the MRI, the variability of the data from a sequence to the other as well as of other different source distortions that accentuate this difficulty. A new automatic, contextual, adaptive and robust segmentation procedure by MRI brain tissue classification is described in this article. A first phase consists in estimating the density of probability of the data by the Parzen-Rozenblatt method. The classification procedure is completely automatic and doesn't make any assumptions nor on the clusters number nor on the prototypes of these clusters since these last are detected in an automatic manner by an operator of mathematical morphology called skeleton by influence zones detection (SKIZ). The problem of initialization of the prototypes as well as their number is transformed in an optimization problem; in more the procedure is adaptive since it takes in consideration the contextual information presents in every voxel by an adaptive and robust non parametric model by the Markov fields (MF). The number of bad classifications is reduced by the use of the criteria of MPM minimization (Maximum Posterior Marginal).

Keywords: Clustering, Automatic Classification, SKIZ, MarkovFields, Image segmentation, Maximum Posterior Marginal (MPM).

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1389
1192 An Improved Greedy Routing Algorithm for Grid using Pheromone-Based Landmarks

Authors: Lada-On Lertsuwanakul, Herwig Unger

Abstract:

This paper objects to extend Jon Kleinberg-s research. He introduced the structure of small-world in a grid and shows with a greedy algorithm using only local information able to find route between source and target in delivery time O(log2n). His fundamental model for distributed system uses a two-dimensional grid with longrange random links added between any two node u and v with a probability proportional to distance d(u,v)-2. We propose with an additional information of the long link nearby, we can find the shorter path. We apply the ant colony system as a messenger distributed their pheromone, the long-link details, in surrounding area. The subsequence forwarding decision has more option to move to, select among local neighbors or send to node has long link closer to its target. Our experiment results sustain our approach, the average routing time by Color Pheromone faster than greedy method.

Keywords: Routing algorithm, Small-World network, Ant Colony Optimization, and Peer-to-peer System.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1828
1191 Analysis of MAC Protocols with Correlation Receiver for OCDMA Networks - Part II

Authors: Shivaleela E. S., Shrikant S. Tangade

Abstract:

In this paper optical code-division multiple-access (OCDMA) packet network is considered, which offers inherent security in the access networks. Two types of random access protocols are proposed for packet transmission. In protocol 1, all distinct codes and in protocol 2, distinct codes as well as shifted versions of all these codes are used. O-CDMA network performance using optical orthogonal codes (OOCs) 1-D and two-dimensional (2-D) wavelength/time single-pulse-per-row (W/T SPR) codes are analyzed. The main advantage of using 2-D codes instead of onedimensional (1-D) codes is to reduce the errors due to multiple access interference among different users. In this paper, correlation receiver is considered in the analysis. Using analytical model, we compute and compare packet-success probability for 1-D and 2-D codes in an O-CDMA network and the analysis shows improved performance with 2-D codes as compared to 1-D codes.

Keywords: Optical code-division multiple-access, optical CDMA correlation receiver, wavelength/time optical CDMA codes.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1367
1190 A Semi-Fragile Watermarking Scheme for Color Image Authentication

Authors: M. Hamad Hassan, S.A.M. Gilani

Abstract:

In this paper, a semi-fragile watermarking scheme is proposed for color image authentication. In this particular scheme, the color image is first transformed from RGB to YST color space, suitable for watermarking the color media. Each channel is divided into 4×4 non-overlapping blocks and its each 2×2 sub-block is selected. The embedding space is created by setting the two LSBs of selected sub-block to zero, which will hold the authentication and recovery information. For verification of work authentication and parity bits denoted by 'a' & 'p' are computed for each 2×2 subblock. For recovery, intensity mean of each 2×2 sub-block is computed and encoded upto six to eight bits depending upon the channel selection. The size of sub-block is important for correct localization and fast computation. For watermark distribution 2DTorus Automorphism is implemented using a private key to have a secure mapping of blocks. The perceptibility of watermarked image is quite reasonable both subjectively and objectively. Our scheme is oblivious, correctly localizes the tampering and able to recovery the original work with probability of near one.

Keywords: Image Authentication, YST Color Space, Intensity Mean, LSBs, PSNR.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1810
1189 Thermo-mechanical Deformation Behavior of Functionally Graded Rectangular Plates Subjected to Various Boundary Conditions and Loadings

Authors: Mohammad Talha, B. N. Singh

Abstract:

This paper deals with the thermo-mechanical deformation behavior of shear deformable functionally graded ceramicmetal (FGM) plates. Theoretical formulations are based on higher order shear deformation theory with a considerable amendment in the transverse displacement using finite element method (FEM). The mechanical properties of the plate are assumed to be temperaturedependent and graded in the thickness direction according to a powerlaw distribution in terms of the volume fractions of the constituents. The temperature field is supposed to be a uniform distribution over the plate surface (XY plane) and varied in the thickness direction only. The fundamental equations for the FGM plates are obtained using variational approach by considering traction free boundary conditions on the top and bottom faces of the plate. A C0 continuous isoparametric Lagrangian finite element with thirteen degrees of freedom per node have been employed to accomplish the results. Convergence and comparison studies have been performed to demonstrate the efficiency of the present model. The numerical results are obtained for different thickness ratios, aspect ratios, volume fraction index and temperature rise with different loading and boundary conditions. Numerical results for the FGM plates are provided in dimensionless tabular and graphical forms. The results proclaim that the temperature field and the gradient in the material properties have significant role on the thermo-mechanical deformation behavior of the FGM plates.

Keywords: Functionally graded material, higher order shear deformation theory, finite element method, independent field variables.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2300