Search results for: random dither quantization.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 712

Search results for: random dither quantization.

652 Spatially Random Sampling for Retail Food Risk Factors Study

Authors: Guilan Huang

Abstract:

In 2013 and 2014, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) collected data from selected fast food restaurants and full service restaurants for tracking changes in the occurrence of foodborne illness risk factors. This paper discussed how we customized spatial random sampling method by considering financial position and availability of FDA resources, and how we enriched restaurants data with location. Location information of restaurants provides opportunity for quantitatively determining random sampling within non-government units (e.g.: 240 kilometers around each data-collector). Spatial analysis also could optimize data-collectors’ work plans and resource allocation. Spatial analytic and processing platform helped us handling the spatial random sampling challenges. Our method fits in FDA’s ability to pinpoint features of foodservice establishments, and reduced both time and expense on data collection.

Keywords: Geospatial technology, restaurant, retail food risk factors study, spatial random sampling.

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651 Using Fractional Factorial Designs for Variable Importance in Random Forest Models

Authors: Ewa. M. Sztendur, Neil T. Diamond

Abstract:

Random Forests are a powerful classification technique, consisting of a collection of decision trees. One useful feature of Random Forests is the ability to determine the importance of each variable in predicting the outcome. This is done by permuting each variable and computing the change in prediction accuracy before and after the permutation. This variable importance calculation is similar to a one-factor-at a time experiment and therefore is inefficient. In this paper, we use a regular fractional factorial design to determine which variables to permute. Based on the results of the trials in the experiment, we calculate the individual importance of the variables, with improved precision over the standard method. The method is illustrated with a study of student attrition at Monash University.

Keywords: Random Forests, Variable Importance, Fractional Factorial Designs, Student Attrition.

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650 Monotonicity of Dependence Concepts from Independent Random Vector into Dependent Random Vector

Authors: Guangpu Chen

Abstract:

When the failure function is monotone, some monotonic reliability methods are used to gratefully simplify and facilitate the reliability computations. However, these methods often work in a transformed iso-probabilistic space. To this end, a monotonic simulator or transformation is needed in order that the transformed failure function is still monotone. This note proves at first that the output distribution of failure function is invariant under the transformation. And then it presents some conditions under which the transformed function is still monotone in the newly obtained space. These concern the copulas and the dependence concepts. In many engineering applications, the Gaussian copulas are often used to approximate the real word copulas while the available information on the random variables is limited to the set of marginal distributions and the covariances. So this note catches an importance on the conditional monotonicity of the often used transformation from an independent random vector into a dependent random vector with Gaussian copulas.

Keywords: Monotonic, Rosenblatt, Nataf transformation, dependence concepts, completely positive matrices, Gaussiancopulas

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649 An Alternative Method for Generating Almost Infinite Sequence of Gaussian Variables

Authors: Nyah C. Temaneh, F. A. Phiri, E. Ruhunga

Abstract:

Most of the well known methods for generating Gaussian variables require at least one standard uniform distributed value, for each Gaussian variable generated. The length of the random number generator therefore, limits the number of independent Gaussian distributed variables that can be generated meanwhile the statistical solution of complex systems requires a large number of random numbers for their statistical analysis. We propose an alternative simple method of generating almost infinite number of Gaussian distributed variables using a limited number of standard uniform distributed random numbers.

Keywords: Gaussian variable, statistical analysis, simulation ofCommunication Network, Random numbers.

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648 Implementing a Visual Servoing System for Robot Controlling

Authors: Maryam Vafadar, Alireza Behrad, Saeed Akbari

Abstract:

Nowadays, with the emerging of the new applications like robot control in image processing, artificial vision for visual servoing is a rapidly growing discipline and Human-machine interaction plays a significant role for controlling the robot. This paper presents a new algorithm based on spatio-temporal volumes for visual servoing aims to control robots. In this algorithm, after applying necessary pre-processing on video frames, a spatio-temporal volume is constructed for each gesture and feature vector is extracted. These volumes are then analyzed for matching in two consecutive stages. For hand gesture recognition and classification we tested different classifiers including k-Nearest neighbor, learning vector quantization and back propagation neural networks. We tested the proposed algorithm with the collected data set and results showed the correct gesture recognition rate of 99.58 percent. We also tested the algorithm with noisy images and algorithm showed the correct recognition rate of 97.92 percent in noisy images.

Keywords: Back propagation neural network, Feature vector, Hand gesture recognition, k-Nearest Neighbor, Learning vector quantization neural network, Robot control, Spatio-temporal volume, Visual servoing

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647 A New Approach to Feedback Shift Registers

Authors: Myat Su Mon Win

Abstract:

The pseudorandom number generators based on linear feedback shift registers (LFSRs), are very quick, easy and secure in the implementation of hardware and software. Thus they are very popular and widely used. But LFSRs lead to fairly easy cryptanalysis due to their completely linearity properties. In this paper, we propose a stochastic generator, which is called Random Feedback Shift Register (RFSR), using stochastic transformation (Random block) with one-way and non-linearity properties.

Keywords: Linear Feedback Shift Register, Non Linearity, R_Block, Random Feedback Shift Register

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646 Dynamic Variation in Nano-Scale CMOS SRAM Cells Due to LF/RTS Noise and Threshold Voltage

Authors: M. Fadlallah, G. Ghibaudo, C. G. Theodorou

Abstract:

The dynamic variation in memory devices such as the Static Random Access Memory can give errors in read or write operations. In this paper, the effect of low-frequency and random telegraph noise on the dynamic variation of one SRAM cell is detailed. The effect on circuit noise, speed, and length of time of processing is examined, using the Supply Read Retention Voltage and the Read Static Noise Margin. New test run methods are also developed. The obtained results simulation shows the importance of noise caused by dynamic variation, and the impact of Random Telegraph noise on SRAM variability is examined by evaluating the statistical distributions of Random Telegraph noise amplitude in the pull-up, pull-down. The threshold voltage mismatch between neighboring cell transistors due to intrinsic fluctuations typically contributes to larger reductions in static noise margin. Also the contribution of each of the SRAM transistor to total dynamic variation has been identified.

Keywords: Low-frequency noise, Random Telegraph Noise, Dynamic Variation, SRRV.

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645 Data Oriented Modeling of Uniform Random Variable: Applied Approach

Authors: Ahmad Habibizad Navin, Mehdi Naghian Fesharaki, Mirkamal Mirnia, Mohamad Teshnelab, Ehsan Shahamatnia

Abstract:

In this paper we introduce new data oriented modeling of uniform random variable well-matched with computing systems. Due to this conformity with current computers structure, this modeling will be efficiently used in statistical inference.

Keywords: Uniform random variable, Data oriented modeling, Statistical inference, Prodigraph, Statistically complete tree, Uniformdigital probability digraph, Uniform n-complete probability tree.

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644 Region Based Hidden Markov Random Field Model for Brain MR Image Segmentation

Authors: Terrence Chen, Thomas S. Huang

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the region based hidden Markov random field model (RBHMRF), which encodes the characteristics of different brain regions into a probabilistic framework for brain MR image segmentation. The recently proposed TV+L1 model is used for region extraction. By utilizing different spatial characteristics in different brain regions, the RMHMRF model performs beyond the current state-of-the-art method, the hidden Markov random field model (HMRF), which uses identical spatial information throughout the whole brain. Experiments on both real and synthetic 3D MR images show that the segmentation result of the proposed method has higher accuracy compared to existing algorithms.

Keywords: Finite Gaussian mixture model, Hidden Markov random field model, image segmentation, MRI.

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643 A Feature-based Invariant Watermarking Scheme Using Zernike Moments

Authors: Say Wei Foo, Qi Dong

Abstract:

In this paper, a novel feature-based image watermarking scheme is proposed. Zernike moments which have invariance properties are adopted in the scheme. In the proposed scheme, feature points are first extracted from host image and several circular patches centered on these points are generated. The patches are used as carriers of watermark information because they can be regenerated to locate watermark embedding positions even when watermarked images are severely distorted. Zernike transform is then applied to the patches to calculate local Zernike moments. Dither modulation is adopted to quantize the magnitudes of the Zernike moments followed by false alarm analysis. Experimental results show that quality degradation of watermarked image is visually transparent. The proposed scheme is very robust against image processing operations and geometric attacks.

Keywords: Image watermarking, Zernike moments, Featurepoint, Invariance, Robustness.

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642 A Normalization-based Robust Watermarking Scheme Using Zernike Moments

Authors: Say Wei Foo, Qi Dong

Abstract:

Digital watermarking has become an important technique for copyright protection but its robustness against attacks remains a major problem. In this paper, we propose a normalizationbased robust image watermarking scheme. In the proposed scheme, original host image is first normalized to a standard form. Zernike transform is then applied to the normalized image to calculate Zernike moments. Dither modulation is adopted to quantize the magnitudes of Zernike moments according to the watermark bit stream. The watermark extracting method is a blind method. Security analysis and false alarm analysis are then performed. The quality degradation of watermarked image caused by the embedded watermark is visually transparent. Experimental results show that the proposed scheme has very high robustness against various image processing operations and geometric attacks.

Keywords: Image watermarking, Image normalization, Zernike moments, Robustness.

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641 Improving Protein-Protein Interaction Prediction by Using Encoding Strategies and Random Indices

Authors: Essam Al-Daoud

Abstract:

A New features are extracted and compared to improve the prediction of protein-protein interactions. The basic idea is to select and use the best set of features from the Tensor matrices that are produced by the frequency vectors of the protein sequences. Three set of features are compared, the first set is based on the indices that are the most common in the interacting proteins, the second set is based on the indices that tend to be common in the interacting and non-interacting proteins, and the third set is constructed by using random indices. Moreover, three encoding strategies are compared; that are based on the amino asides polarity, structure, and chemical properties. The experimental results indicate that the highest accuracy can be obtained by using random indices with chemical properties encoding strategy and support vector machine.

Keywords: protein-protein interactions, random indices, encoding strategies, support vector machine.

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640 Coupling Compensation of 6-DOF Parallel Robot Based on Screw Theory

Authors: Ming Cong, Yinghua Wu, Dong Liu, Haiying Wen, Junfa Yu

Abstract:

In order to improve control performance and eliminate steady, a coupling compensation for 6-DOF parallel robot is presented. Taking dynamic load Tank Simulator as the research object, this paper analyzes the coupling of 6-DOC parallel robot considering the degree of freedom of the 6-DOF parallel manipulator. The coupling angle and coupling velocity are derived based on inverse kinematics model. It uses the mechanism-model combined method which takes practical moving track that considering the performance of motion controller and motor as its input to make the study. Experimental results show that the coupling compensation improves motion stability as well as accuracy. Besides, it decreases the dither amplitude of dynamic load Tank Simulator.

Keywords: coupling compensation, screw theory, parallel robot, mechanism-model combined motion

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639 The Giant Component in a Random Subgraph of a Weak Expander

Authors: Yilun Shang

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate the appearance of the giant component in random subgraphs G(p) of a given large finite graph family Gn = (Vn, En) in which each edge is present independently with probability p. We show that if the graph Gn satisfies a weak isoperimetric inequality and has bounded degree, then the probability p under which G(p) has a giant component of linear order with some constant probability is bounded away from zero and one. In addition, we prove the probability of abnormally large order of the giant component decays exponentially. When a contact graph is modeled as Gn, our result is of special interest in the study of the spread of infectious diseases or the identification of community in various social networks.

Keywords: subgraph, expander, random graph, giant component, percolation.

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638 The Maximum Likelihood Method of Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression Model

Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

Abstract:

The Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression (RCDR) model is to developed from Random Coefficient Autoregressive (RCA) model and Autoregressive (AR) model. The RCDR model is considered by adding exogenous variables to RCA model. In this paper, the concept of the Maximum Likelihood (ML) method is used to estimate the parameter of RCDR(1,1) model. Simulation results have shown the AIC and BIC criterion to compare the performance of the the RCDR(1,1) model. The variables as the stationary and weakly stationary data are good estimates where the exogenous variables are weakly stationary. However, the model selection indicated that variables are nonstationarity data based on the stationary data of the exogenous variables.

Keywords: Autoregressive, Maximum Likelihood Method, Nonstationarity, Random Coefficient Dynamic Regression, Stationary.

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637 Auto Tuning PID Controller based on Improved Genetic Algorithm for Reverse Osmosis Plant

Authors: Jin-Sung Kim, Jin-Hwan Kim, Ji-Mo Park, Sung-Man Park, Won-Yong Choe, Hoon Heo

Abstract:

An optimal control of Reverse Osmosis (RO) plant is studied in this paper utilizing the auto tuning concept in conjunction with PID controller. A control scheme composing an auto tuning stochastic technique based on an improved Genetic Algorithm (GA) is proposed. For better evaluation of the process in GA, objective function defined newly in sense of root mean square error has been used. Also in order to achieve better performance of GA, more pureness and longer period of random number generation in operation are sought. The main improvement is made by replacing the uniform distribution random number generator in conventional GA technique to newly designed hybrid random generator composed of Cauchy distribution and linear congruential generator, which provides independent and different random numbers at each individual steps in Genetic operation. The performance of newly proposed GA tuned controller is compared with those of conventional ones via simulation.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Auto tuning, Hybrid random number generator, Reverse Osmosis, PID controller

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636 Block Activity in Metric Neural Networks

Authors: Mario Gonzalez, David Dominguez, Francisco B. Rodriguez

Abstract:

The model of neural networks on the small-world topology, with metric (local and random connectivity) is investigated. The synaptic weights are random, driving the network towards a chaotic state for the neural activity. An ordered macroscopic neuron state is induced by a bias in the network connections. When the connections are mainly local, the network emulates a block-like structure. It is found that the topology and the bias compete to influence the network to evolve into a global or a block activity ordering, according to the initial conditions.

Keywords: Block attractor, random interaction, small world, spin glass.

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635 A New Concept for Deriving the Expected Value of Fuzzy Random Variables

Authors: Liang-Hsuan Chen, Chia-Jung Chang

Abstract:

Fuzzy random variables have been introduced as an imprecise concept of numeric values for characterizing the imprecise knowledge. The descriptive parameters can be used to describe the primary features of a set of fuzzy random observations. In fuzzy environments, the expected values are usually represented as fuzzy-valued, interval-valued or numeric-valued descriptive parameters using various metrics. Instead of the concept of area metric that is usually adopted in the relevant studies, the numeric expected value is proposed by the concept of distance metric in this study based on two characters (fuzziness and randomness) of FRVs. Comparing with the existing measures, although the results show that the proposed numeric expected value is same with those using the different metric, if only triangular membership functions are used. However, the proposed approach has the advantages of intuitiveness and computational efficiency, when the membership functions are not triangular types. An example with three datasets is provided for verifying the proposed approach.

Keywords: Fuzzy random variables, Distance measure, Expected value.

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634 Physical and Chemical Investigation of Polycaprolactone, Nanohydroxyapatite and Poly (Vinyl Alcohol) Nanocomposite Scaffolds

Authors: A.Doustgani, E.Vasheghani- Farahani, M. Soleimani, S. Hashemi-Najafabadi

Abstract:

Aligned and random nanofibrous scaffolds of PVA/PCL/nHA were fabricated by electrospinning method. The composite nanofibrous scaffolds were subjected to detailed analysis. Morphological investigations revealed that the prepared nanofibers have uniform morphology and the average fiber diameters of aligned and random scaffolds were 135.5 and 290 nm, respectively. The obtained scaffolds have a porous structure with porosity of 88 and 76% for random and aligned nanofibers, respectively. Furthermore, FTIR analysis demonstrated that there were strong intramolecular interactions between the molecules of PVA/PCL/nHA. On the other hand, mechanical characterizations show that aligning the nanofibers, could significantly improve the rigidity of the resultant biocomposite nanofibrous scaffolds.

Keywords: Electrospinnig, nanofibrous scaffold, poly (vinyl alcohol), polycaprolactone.

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633 Feature Selection and Predictive Modeling of Housing Data Using Random Forest

Authors: Bharatendra Rai

Abstract:

Predictive data analysis and modeling involving machine learning techniques become challenging in presence of too many explanatory variables or features. Presence of too many features in machine learning is known to not only cause algorithms to slow down, but they can also lead to decrease in model prediction accuracy. This study involves housing dataset with 79 quantitative and qualitative features that describe various aspects people consider while buying a new house. Boruta algorithm that supports feature selection using a wrapper approach build around random forest is used in this study. This feature selection process leads to 49 confirmed features which are then used for developing predictive random forest models. The study also explores five different data partitioning ratios and their impact on model accuracy are captured using coefficient of determination (r-square) and root mean square error (rsme).

Keywords: Housing data, feature selection, random forest, Boruta algorithm, root mean square error.

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632 Radio Frequency Identification Encryption via Modified Two Dimensional Logistic Map

Authors: Hongmin Deng, Qionghua Wang

Abstract:

A modified two dimensional (2D) logistic map based on cross feedback control is proposed. This 2D map exhibits more random chaotic dynamical properties than the classic one dimensional (1D) logistic map in the statistical characteristics analysis. So it is utilized as the pseudo-random (PN) sequence generator, where the obtained real-valued PN sequence is quantized at first, then applied to radio frequency identification (RFID) communication system in this paper. This system is experimentally validated on a cortex-M0 development board, which shows the effectiveness in key generation, the size of key space and security. At last, further cryptanalysis is studied through the test suite in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

Keywords: Chaos encryption, logistic map, pseudo-random sequence, RFID.

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631 Topological Properties of an Exponential Random Geometric Graph Process

Authors: Yilun Shang

Abstract:

In this paper we consider a one-dimensional random geometric graph process with the inter-nodal gaps evolving according to an exponential AR(1) process. The transition probability matrix and stationary distribution are derived for the Markov chains concerning connectivity and the number of components. We analyze the algorithm for hitting time regarding disconnectivity. In addition to dynamical properties, we also study topological properties for static snapshots. We obtain the degree distributions as well as asymptotic precise bounds and strong law of large numbers for connectivity threshold distance and the largest nearest neighbor distance amongst others. Both exact results and limit theorems are provided in this paper.

Keywords: random geometric graph, autoregressive process, degree, connectivity, Markovian, wireless network.

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630 Accelerating GLA with an M-Tree

Authors: Olli Luoma, Johannes Tuikkala, Olli Nevalainen

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a novel improvement for the generalized Lloyd Algorithm (GLA). Our algorithm makes use of an M-tree index built on the codebook which makes it possible to reduce the number of distance computations when the nearest code words are searched. Our method does not impose the use of any specific distance function, but works with any metric distance, making it more general than many other fast GLA variants. Finally, we present the positive results of our performance experiments.

Keywords: Clustering, GLA, M-Tree, Vector Quantization .

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629 Identification of Roadway Wavelengths Affecting the Dynamic Responses of Bridges due to Vehicular Loading

Authors: Ghada Karaki

Abstract:

The bridge vibration due to traffic loading has been a subject of extensive research during the last decades. A number of these studies are concerned with the effects of the unevenness of roadways on the dynamic responses of highway bridges. The road unevenness is often described as a random process that constitutes of different wavelengths. Thus, the study focuses on examining the effects of the random description of roadways on the dynamic response and its variance. A new setting of variance based sensitivity analysis is proposed and used to identify and quantify the contributions of the roadway-s wavelengths to the variance of the dynamic response. Furthermore, the effect of the vehicle-s speed on the dynamic response is studied.

Keywords: vehicle bridge interaction, sensitivity analysis, road unevenness, random processes, critical speeds

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628 FIR Filter Design via Linear Complementarity Problem, Messy Genetic Algorithm, and Ising Messy Genetic Algorithm

Authors: A.M. Al-Fahed Nuseirat, R. Abu-Zitar

Abstract:

In this paper the design of maximally flat linear phase finite impulse response (FIR) filters is considered. The problem is handled with totally two different approaches. The first one is completely deterministic numerical approach where the problem is formulated as a Linear Complementarity Problem (LCP). The other one is based on a combination of Markov Random Fields (MRF's) approach with messy genetic algorithm (MGA). Markov Random Fields (MRFs) are a class of probabilistic models that have been applied for many years to the analysis of visual patterns or textures. Our objective is to establish MRFs as an interesting approach to modeling messy genetic algorithms. We establish a theoretical result that every genetic algorithm problem can be characterized in terms of a MRF model. This allows us to construct an explicit probabilistic model of the MGA fitness function and introduce the Ising MGA. Experimentations done with Ising MGA are less costly than those done with standard MGA since much less computations are involved. The least computations of all is for the LCP. Results of the LCP, random search, random seeded search, MGA, and Ising MGA are discussed.

Keywords: Filter design, FIR digital filters, LCP, Ising model, MGA, Ising MGA.

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627 A Genetic Based Algorithm to Generate Random Simple Polygons Using a New Polygon Merge Algorithm

Authors: Ali Nourollah, Mohsen Movahedinejad

Abstract:

In this paper a new algorithm to generate random simple polygons from a given set of points in a two dimensional plane is designed. The proposed algorithm uses a genetic algorithm to generate polygons with few vertices. A new merge algorithm is presented which converts any two polygons into a simple polygon. This algorithm at first changes two polygons into a polygonal chain and then the polygonal chain is converted into a simple polygon. The process of converting a polygonal chain into a simple polygon is based on the removal of intersecting edges. The experiments results show that the proposed algorithm has the ability to generate a great number of different simple polygons and has better performance in comparison to celebrated algorithms such as space partitioning and steady growth.

Keywords: Divide and conquer, genetic algorithm, merge polygons, Random simple polygon generation.

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626 Brain Image Segmentation Using Conditional Random Field Based On Modified Artificial Bee Colony Optimization Algorithm

Authors: B. Thiagarajan, R. Bremananth

Abstract:

Tumor is an uncontrolled growth of tissues in any part of the body. Tumors are of different types and they have different characteristics and treatments. Brain tumor is inherently serious and life-threatening because of its character in the limited space of the intracranial cavity (space formed inside the skull). Locating the tumor within MR (magnetic resonance) image of brain is integral part of the treatment of brain tumor. This segmentation task requires classification of each voxel as either tumor or non-tumor, based on the description of the voxel under consideration. Many studies are going on in the medical field using Markov Random Fields (MRF) in segmentation of MR images. Even though the segmentation process is better, computing the probability and estimation of parameters is difficult. In order to overcome the aforementioned issues, Conditional Random Field (CRF) is used in this paper for segmentation, along with the modified artificial bee colony optimization and modified fuzzy possibility c-means (MFPCM) algorithm. This work is mainly focused to reduce the computational complexities, which are found in existing methods and aimed at getting higher accuracy. The efficiency of this work is evaluated using the parameters such as region non-uniformity, correlation and computation time. The experimental results are compared with the existing methods such as MRF with improved Genetic Algorithm (GA) and MRF-Artificial Bee Colony (MRF-ABC) algorithm.

Keywords: Conditional random field, Magnetic resonance, Markov random field, Modified artificial bee colony.

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625 Prediction of Protein Subchloroplast Locations using Random Forests

Authors: Chun-Wei Tung, Chyn Liaw, Shinn-Jang Ho, Shinn-Ying Ho

Abstract:

Protein subchloroplast locations are correlated with its functions. In contrast to the large amount of available protein sequences, the information of their locations and functions is less known. The experiment works for identification of protein locations and functions are costly and time consuming. The accurate prediction of protein subchloroplast locations can accelerate the study of functions of proteins in chloroplast. This study proposes a Random Forest based method, ChloroRF, to predict protein subchloroplast locations using interpretable physicochemical properties. In addition to high prediction accuracy, the ChloroRF is able to select important physicochemical properties. The important physicochemical properties are also analyzed to provide insights into the underlying mechanism.

Keywords: Chloroplast, Physicochemical properties, Proteinlocations, Random Forests.

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624 A Nano-Scaled SRAM Guard Band Design with Gaussian Mixtures Model of Complex Long Tail RTN Distributions

Authors: Worawit Somha, Hiroyuki Yamauchi

Abstract:

This paper proposes, for the first time, how the challenges facing the guard-band designs including the margin assist-circuits scheme for the screening-test in the coming process generations should be addressed. The increased screening error impacts are discussed based on the proposed statistical analysis models. It has been shown that the yield-loss caused by the misjudgment on the screening test would become 5-orders of magnitude larger than that for the conventional one when the amplitude of random telegraph noise (RTN) caused variations approaches to that of random dopant fluctuation. Three fitting methods to approximate the RTN caused complex Gamma mixtures distributions by the simple Gaussian mixtures model (GMM) are proposed and compared. It has been verified that the proposed methods can reduce the error of the fail-bit predictions by 4-orders of magnitude.

Keywords: Mixtures of Gaussian, Random telegraph noise, EM algorithm, Long-tail distribution, Fail-bit analysis, Static random access memory, Guard band design.

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623 Forecasting the Fluctuation of Currency Exchange Rate Using Random Forest

Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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