Search results for: empirical distributions

Authors: Geeta Sikka, Arvinder Kaur Takkar, Moin Uddin

Abstract:

Missing data is a persistent problem in almost all areas of empirical research. The missing data must be treated very carefully, as data plays a fundamental role in every analysis. Improper treatment can distort the analysis or generate biased results. In this paper, we compare and contrast various imputation techniques on missing data sets and make an empirical evaluation of these methods so as to construct quality software models. Our empirical study is based on NASA-s two public dataset. KC4 and KC1. The actual data sets of 125 cases and 2107 cases respectively, without any missing values were considered. The data set is used to create Missing at Random (MAR) data Listwise Deletion(LD), Mean Substitution(MS), Interpolation, Regression with an error term and Expectation-Maximization (EM) approaches were used to compare the effects of the various techniques.

Keywords: Missing data, Imputation, Missing Data Techniques.

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Authors: A. A. Penin

Abstract:

An empirical linearly-hyperbolic approximation of the I - V characteristic of a solar cell is presented. This approximation is based on hyperbolic dependence of a current of p-n junctions on voltage for large currents. Such empirical approximation is compared with the early proposed formal linearly-hyperbolic approximation of a solar cell. The expressions defining laws of change of parameters of formal approximation at change of a photo current of family of characteristics are received. It allows simplifying a finding of parameters of approximation on actual curves, to specify their values. Analytical calculation of load regime for linearly - hyperbolic model leads to quadratic equation. Also, this model allows to define soundly a deviation from the maximum power regime and to compare efficiency of regimes of solar cells with different parameters.

Keywords: a solar cell generator, I − V characteristic, p − n junction, approximation

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Authors: Gabriel I. Loaiza O., Carlos A. Cadavid M., Juan C. Arango P.

Abstract:

It is known that the Riemannian manifold determined by the family of inverse Gaussian distributions endowed with the Fisher metric has negative constant curvature κ = −1/2 , as does the family of usual Gaussian distributions. In the present paper, firstly we arrive at this result by following a different path, much simpler than the previous ones. We first put the family in exponential form, thus endowing the family with a new set of parameters, or coordinates, θ1, θ2; then we determine the matrix of the Fisher metric in terms of these parameters; and finally we compute this matrix in the original parameters. Secondly, we define the Inverse q−Gaussian distribution family (q < 3), as the family obtained by replacing the usual exponential function by the Tsallis q−exponential function in the expression for the Inverse Gaussian distribution, and observe that it supports two possible geometries, the Fisher and the q−Fisher geometry. And finally, we apply our strategy to obtain results about the Fisher and q−Fisher geometry of the Inverse q−Gaussian distribution family, similar to the ones obtained in the case of the Inverse Gaussian distribution family.

Keywords: Base of Changes, Information Geometry, Inverse Gaussian distribution, Inverse q-Gaussian distribution, Statistical Manifolds.

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Authors: Samppa Suoniemi, Harri Terho, Rami Olkkonen

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In recent methodological articles related to structural equation modeling (SEM), the question of how to measure endogenous formative variables has been raised as an urgent, unresolved issue. This research presents an empirical application from the CRM system development context to test a recently developed technique, which makes it possible to measure endogenous formative constructs in structural models. PLS path modeling is used to demonstrate the feasibility of measuring antecedent relationships at the formative indicator level, not the formative construct level. Empirical results show that this technique is a promising approach to measure antecedent relationships of formative constructs in SEM.

Keywords: CRM system development, formative measures, PLS path modeling, research methodology.

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Authors: F. Isada, Y. Isada

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In this research, the diffusion of innovation regarding smartphone usage is analysed through a consumer behaviour theory. This research aims to determine whether a pattern surrounding the diffusion of innovation exists. As a methodology, an empirical study of the switch from a conventional cell phone to a smartphone was performed. Specifically, a questionnaire survey was completed by general consumers, and the situational and behavioural characteristics of switching from a cell phone to a smartphone were analysed. In conclusion, we found that the speed of the diffusion of innovation, the consumer behaviour characteristics, and the utilities of the product vary according to the stage of the product life cycle.

Keywords: Diffusion of innovation, consumer behaviour, product life cycle, smartphone, empirical study, questionnaire survey.

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Authors: Young-Seok Choi

Abstract:

We present a refined multiscale Shannon entropy for analyzing electroencephalogram (EEG), which reflects the underlying dynamics of EEG over multiple scales. The rationale behind this method is that neurological signals such as EEG possess distinct dynamics over different spectral modes. To deal with the nonlinear and nonstationary nature of EEG, the recently developed empirical mode decomposition (EMD) is incorporated, allowing a decomposition of EEG into its inherent spectral components, referred to as intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). By calculating the Shannon entropy of IMFs in a time-dependent manner and summing them over adaptive multiple scales, it results in an adaptive subscale entropy measure of EEG. Simulation and experimental results show that the proposed entropy properly reveals the dynamical changes over multiple scales.

Keywords: EEG, subscale entropy, Empirical mode decomposition, Intrinsic mode function.

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Authors: Khemanand Moheeput, Smita S. D. Goorah, Satish K. Ramchurn

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We report a computational study of the spreading dynamics of a viral infection in a complex (scale-free) network. The final epidemic size distribution (FESD) was found to be unimodal or bimodal depending on the value of the basic reproductive number R0 . The FESDs occurred on time-scales long enough for intermediate-time epidemic size distributions (IESDs) to be important for control measures. The usefulness of R0 for deciding on the timeliness and intensity of control measures was found to be limited by the multimodal nature of the IESDs and by its inability to inform on the speed at which the infection spreads through the population. A reduction of the transmission probability at the hubs of the scale-free network decreased the occurrence of the larger-sized epidemic events of the multimodal distributions. For effective epidemic control, an early reduction in transmission at the index cell and its neighbors was essential.

Keywords: Basic reproductive number, epidemic control, scalefree network, viral infection.

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Authors: Tomohiro Ando, Satoshi Yamashita

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The objective of this study is to propose a statistical modeling method which enables simultaneous term structure estimation of the risk-free interest rate, hazard and loss given default, incorporating the characteristics of the bond issuing company such as credit rating and financial information. A reduced form model is used for this purpose. Statistical techniques such as spline estimation and Bayesian information criterion are employed for parameter estimation and model selection. An empirical analysis is conducted using the information on the Japanese bond market data. Results of the empirical analysis confirm the usefulness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Empirical Bayes, Hazard term structure, Loss given default.

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Authors: A. Sarchami, N. Ashgriz, M. Kwee

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Threedimensional numerical simulations are conducted on a full scale CANDU Moderator and Transient variations of the temperature and velocity distributions inside the tank are determined. The results show that the flow and temperature distributions inside the moderator tank are three dimensional and no symmetry plane can be identified.Competition between the upward moving buoyancy driven flows and the downward moving momentum driven flows, results in the formation of circulation zones. The moderator tank operates in the buoyancy driven mode and any small disturbances in the flow or temperature makes the system unstable and asymmetric. Different types of temperature fluctuations are noted inside the tank: (i) large amplitude are at the boundaries between the hot and cold (ii) low amplitude are in the core of the tank (iii) high frequency fluctuations are in the regions with high velocities and (iv) low frequency fluctuations are in the regions with lower velocities.

Keywords: Bruce, Fluctuations, Numerical, Temperature, Thermal hydraulics

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Authors: Fathi Taibi

Abstract:

Measuring the reusability of Object-Oriented (OO) program code is important to ensure a successful and timely adaptation and integration of the reused code in new software projects. It has become even more relevant with the availability of huge amounts of open-source projects. Reuse saves cost, increases the speed of development and improves software reliability. Measuring this reusability is not s straight forward process due to the variety of metrics and qualities linked to software reuse and the lack of comprehensive empirical studies to support the proposed metrics or models. In this paper, a conceptual model is proposed to measure the reusability of OO program code. A comprehensive set of metrics is used to compute the most significant factors of reusability and an empirical investigation is conducted to measure the reusability of the classes of randomly selected open-source Java projects. Additionally, the impact of using inner and anonymous classes on the reusability of their enclosing classes is assessed. The results obtained are thoroughly analyzed to identify the factors behind lack of reusability in open-source OO program code and the impact of nesting on it.

Keywords: Code reuse, Low Complexity, Empirical Analysis, Modularity, Software Metrics, Understandability.

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Authors: Shinichiro Sasahara, Yusuke Tomotsune, Yuichi Ohi, Shun Suzuki, Akihiro Seki, Junko Sakano, Yoshihiko Yamazaki, Ichiyo Matsuzaki

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Via a large scale cross-sectional study among Japanese white color workers, the authors aimed to elucidate: (1) the distributions of Sense of Coherence (SOC), which reflect stress coping abilities, (2) the distributions of Life experience; (3) and the association between SOC and Life experience. Anonymous self-administered questionnaires were sent to 15,891 in 2001 and 21,922 in 2011 employees at educational and research institutions in Tsukuba Research Park City. A total of 5,868 (36.9%) and 9,528 (43.5%) respectively workers completed and returned the questionnaire; 5,715 and 9,515 respectively workers without missing data were analyzed. SOC scale scores differed by gender, age, and other demographic features in both study years. Among the life experiences, workers who have got over parenting or management position were higher SOC scale scores adjusted by gender and age. The life experiences that workers have got over could develop their stronger SOC in their life course.

Keywords: field study, life experience, mental health, SOC (sense of coherence)

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Authors: Young Hoon Lee, Bong Jin Kang, Won Ho Kang

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Antiseismic property of telecommunication equipment is very important for the grasp of the damage and the restoration after earthquake. Telecommunication business operators are regulating seismic standard for their equipments. These standards are organized to simulate the real seismic situations and usually define the minimum value of first natural frequency of the equipments or the allowable maximum displacement of top of the equipments relative to bottom. Using the finite element analysis, natural frequency can be obtained with high accuracy but the relative displacement of top of the equipments is difficult to predict accurately using the analysis. Furthermore, in the case of simulating the equipments with access floor, predicting the relative displacement of top of the equipments become more difficult. In this study, using enormous experimental datum, an empirical formula is suggested to forecast the relative displacement of top of the equipments. Also it can be known that which physical quantities are related with the relative displacement.

Keywords: Empirical formula, First natural frequency, Seismic test, Telecommunication equipments.

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Authors: S. H. Anilkumar, Ghulam Jilani

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The objective of the present work is to conduct investigations leading to a more complete explanation of single phase natural convective heat transfer in an enclosure with fin utilizing nano fluids. The nano fluid used, which is composed of Aluminum oxide nano particles in suspension of Ethylene glycol, is provided at various volume fractions. The study is carried out numerically for a range of Rayleigh numbers, fin heights and aspect ratio. The flow and temperature distributions are taken to be two-dimensional. Regions with the same velocity and temperature distributions are identified as symmetry of sections. One half of such a rectangular region is chosen as the computational domain taking into account the symmetry about the fin. Transport equations are modeled by a stream functionvorticity formulation and are solved numerically by finite-difference schemes. Comparisons with previously published works on the basis of special cases are done. Results are presented in the form of streamline, vector and isotherm plots as well as the variation of local Nusselt number along the fin under different conditions.

Keywords: Fin height, Nano fluid, natural convection, Rayleigh number.

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

Abstract:

This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization.

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Authors: Stefan V. Stefanescu

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We intend to point out the differences which exist between the classical Gini concentration coefficient and a proposed bipolarization index defined for an arbitrary random variable which have a finite support. In fact Gini's index measures only the "poverty degree" for the individuals from a given population taking into consideration their wages. The Gini coefficient is not so sensitive to the significant income variations in the "rich people class" . In practice there are multiple interdependent relations between the pauperization and the socio-economical polarization phenomena. The presence of a strong pauperization aspect inside the population induces often a polarization effect in this society. But the pauperization and the polarization phenomena are not identical. For this reason it isn't always adequate to use a Gini type coefficient, based on the Lorenz order, to estimate the bipolarization level of the individuals from the studied population. The present paper emphasizes these ideas by considering two families of random variables which have a linear or a triangular type distributions. In addition, the continuous variation, depending on the parameter "time" of the chosen distributions, could simulate a real dynamical evolution of the population.

Keywords: Bipolarization phenomenon, Gini coefficient, income distribution, poverty measure.

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Authors: A. Shaygani, R. Saifi, M. S. Saidi, M. Sani

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Particle size distribution, the most important characteristics of aerosols, is obtained through electrical characterization techniques. The dynamics of charged nanoparticles under the influence of electric field in Electrical Mobility Spectrometer (EMS) reveals the size distribution of these particles. The accuracy of this measurement is influenced by flow conditions, geometry, electric field and particle charging process, therefore by the transfer function (transfer matrix) of the instrument. In this work, a wire-cylinder corona charger was designed and the combined fielddiffusion charging process of injected poly-disperse aerosol particles was numerically simulated as a prerequisite for the study of a multichannel EMS. The result, a cloud of particles with no uniform charge distribution, was introduced to the EMS. The flow pattern and electric field in the EMS were simulated using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to obtain particle trajectories in the device and therefore to calculate the reported signal by each electrometer. According to the output signals (resulted from bombardment of particles and transferring their charges as currents), we proposed a modification to the size of detecting rings (which are connected to electrometers) in order to evaluate particle size distributions more accurately. Based on the capability of the system to transfer information contents about size distribution of the injected particles, we proposed a benchmark for the assessment of optimality of the design. This method applies the concept of Von Neumann entropy and borrows the definition of entropy from information theory (Shannon entropy) to measure optimality. Entropy, according to the Shannon entropy, is the ''average amount of information contained in an event, sample or character extracted from a data stream''. Evaluating the responses (signals) which were obtained via various configurations of detecting rings, the best configuration which gave the best predictions about the size distributions of injected particles, was the modified configuration. It was also the one that had the maximum amount of entropy. A reasonable consistency was also observed between the accuracy of the predictions and the entropy content of each configuration. In this method, entropy is extracted from the transfer matrix of the instrument for each configuration. Ultimately, various clouds of particles were introduced to the simulations and predicted size distributions were compared to the exact size distributions.

Keywords: Aerosol Nano-Particle, CFD, Electrical Mobility Spectrometer, Von Neumann entropy.

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Authors: César Camisón-Zornoza, Beatriz Forés-Julián, Alba Puig-Denia

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The literature has argued that firms based in industrial districts enjoy advantages for creating internal knowledge and absorbing external knowledge as a consequence of to the knowledge flows and spillovers that exist in the district. However, empirical evidence to show how belonging to an industrial district affects the business processes of creation and absorption of knowledge is scarce and, moreover, empirical research has not taken into account the influence of variations in the flows of knowledge circulating in each cluster. This study aims to extend empirical evidence on the effect that the stock of shared competencies in industrial districts has on the business processes of creation and absorption of knowledge, through data from an initial study on 952 firms and 35 industrial districts in Spain.

Keywords: Absorptive capacity, industrial district, knowledge creation, organisational learning

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Authors: Sudipta Majumdar, Amarendra Kumar Mishra

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This paper proposes empirical mode decomposition (EMD) together with wavelet transform (WT) based analytic signal for power quality (PQ) events assessment. EMD decomposes the complex signals into several intrinsic mode functions (IMF). As the PQ events are non stationary, instantaneous parameters have been calculated from these IMFs using analytic signal obtained form WT. We obtained three parameters from IMFs and then used KNN classifier for classification of PQ disturbance. We compared the classification of proposed method for PQ events by obtaining the features using Hilbert transform (HT) method. The classification efficiency using WT based analytic method is 97.5% and using HT based analytic signal is 95.5%.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition, Hilbert transform, wavelet transform.

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Authors: Milena Gojny-Zbierowska

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In the last decades, psychological tests have been gaining in popularity as a method used for evaluating personnel, and they bring consulting companies solid profits rising by up to 10% each year. The market is offering a growing range of tools for the assessment of personality. Tests are used in organizations mainly in the recruitment and selection of staff. This paper is an attempt to initially diagnose the state of the use of psychological tests in Polish companies on the basis of empirical research.

Keywords: Psychological tests, personality, content analysis, NEO FFI, big five personality model.

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Authors: Bernardo C. P. Albuquerque, Darym J. F. Campos

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Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.

Keywords: Statistical slope stability analysis, Skew distributions, Probability of failure, Functions of random variables.

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Authors: Tse-Yu Hsieh, Jyh-Jian Chen

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Since polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has been invented, it has emerged as a powerful tool in genetic analysis. The PCR products are closely linked with thermal cycles. Therefore, to reduce the reaction time and make temperature distribution uniform in the reaction chamber, a novel oscillatory thermal cycler is designed. The sample is placed in a fixed chamber, and three constant isothermal zones are established and lined in the system. The sample is oscillated and contacted with three different isothermal zones to complete thermal cycles. This study presents the design of the geometric characteristics of the chamber. The commercial software CFD-ACE+TM is utilized to investigate the influences of various materials, heating times, chamber volumes, and moving speed of the chamber on the temperature distributions inside the chamber. The chamber moves at a specific velocity and the boundary conditions with time variations are related to the moving speed. Whereas the chamber moves, the boundary is specified at the conditions of the convection or the uniform temperature. The user subroutines compiled by the FORTRAN language are used to make the numerical results realistically. Results show that the reaction chamber with a rectangular prism is heated on six faces; the effects of various moving speeds of the chamber on the temperature distributions are examined. Regarding to the temperature profiles and the standard deviation of the temperature at the Y-cut cross section, the non-uniform temperature inside chamber is found as the moving speed is larger than 0.01 m/s. By reducing the heating faces to four, the standard deviation of the temperature of the reaction chamber is under 1.4×10-3K with the range of velocities between 0.0001 m/s and 1 m/s. The nature convective boundary conditions are set at all boundaries while the chamber moves between two heaters, the effects of various moving velocities of the chamber on the temperature distributions are negligible at the assigned time duration.

Keywords: Polymerase chain reaction, oscillatory thermal cycler, standard deviation of temperature, nature convective.

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Authors: Christopher Reichstein, Ralf-Christian Härting, Martina Häußler

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With a continuously increasing speed of information exchange on the World Wide Web, retailers in the E-Commerce sector are faced with immense possibilities regarding different online purchase processes like dynamic price settings. By use of Dynamic Pricing, retailers are able to set short time price changes in order to optimize producer surplus. The empirical research illustrates the basics of Dynamic Pricing and identifies six influencing factors of Dynamic Pricing. The results of a structural equation modeling approach show five main drivers increasing the potential of dynamic price settings in the E-Commerce. Influencing factors are the knowledge of customers’ individual willingness to pay, rising sales, the possibility of customization, the data volume and the information about competitors’ pricing strategy.

Keywords: E-commerce, empirical research, experts, Dynamic Pricing (DP), influencing factors, potentials.

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Authors: L. Melzerová, T. Janda, M. Šejnoha, J. Šejnoha

Abstract:

Two finite element (FEM) models are presented in this paper to address the random nature of the response of glued timber structures made of wood segments with variable elastic moduli evaluated from 3600 indentation measurements. This total database served to create the same number of ensembles as was the number of segments in the tested beam. Statistics of these ensembles were then assigned to given segments of beams and the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method was called to perform 100 simulations resulting into the ensemble of 100 deflections subjected to statistical evaluation. Here, a detailed geometrical arrangement of individual segments in the laminated beam was considered in the construction of two-dimensional FEM model subjected to in fourpoint bending to comply with the laboratory tests. Since laboratory measurements of local elastic moduli may in general suffer from a significant experimental error, it appears advantageous to exploit the full scale measurements of timber beams, i.e. deflections, to improve their prior distributions with the help of the Bayesian statistical method. This, however, requires an efficient computational model when simulating the laboratory tests numerically. To this end, a simplified model based on Mindlin’s beam theory was established. The improved posterior distributions show that the most significant change of the Young’s modulus distribution takes place in laminae in the most strained zones, i.e. in the top and bottom layers within the beam center region. Posterior distributions of moduli of elasticity were subsequently utilized in the 2D FEM model and compared with the original simulations.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, FEM, four point bending test, laminated timber, parameter estimation, prior and posterior distribution, Young’s modulus.

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Authors: Worawit Somha, Hiroyuki Yamauchi

Abstract:

This paper proposes, for the first time, how the challenges facing the guard-band designs including the margin assist-circuits scheme for the screening-test in the coming process generations should be addressed. The increased screening error impacts are discussed based on the proposed statistical analysis models. It has been shown that the yield-loss caused by the misjudgment on the screening test would become 5-orders of magnitude larger than that for the conventional one when the amplitude of random telegraph noise (RTN) caused variations approaches to that of random dopant fluctuation. Three fitting methods to approximate the RTN caused complex Gamma mixtures distributions by the simple Gaussian mixtures model (GMM) are proposed and compared. It has been verified that the proposed methods can reduce the error of the fail-bit predictions by 4-orders of magnitude.

Keywords: Mixtures of Gaussian, Random telegraph noise, EM algorithm, Long-tail distribution, Fail-bit analysis, Static random access memory, Guard band design.

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Authors: B. Marungsri, W. Onchantuek, A. Oonsivilai

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This paper presents the simulation the results of electric field and potential distributions along surface of silicone rubber polymer insulators. Near the same leakage distance subjected to 15 kV in 50 cycle salt fog ageing test, alternate sheds silicone rubber polymer insulator showed better contamination performance than straight sheds silicone rubber polymer insulator. Severe surface ageing was observed on the straight sheds insulator. The objective of this work is to elucidate that electric field distribution along straight sheds insulator higher than alternate shed insulator in salt fog ageing test. Finite element method (FEM) is adopted for this work. The simulation results confirmed the experimental data, as well.

Keywords: Electric field distribution, potential distribution, silicone rubber polymer insulator, finite element method.

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Authors: Chin Wen Cheong

Abstract:

This study employs a bivariate asymmetric GARCH model to reveal the hidden dynamics price changes and volatility among the emerging markets of Thailand and Malaysian after the Asian financial crisis from January 2001 to December 2008. Our results indicated that the equity markets are sharing the common information (shock) that transmitted among each others. These empirical findings are used to demonstrate the importance of shock and volatility dynamic transmissions in the cross-market hedging and market risk.

Keywords: multivariate ARCH, structural change, value at risk.

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Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid B. Ali, Loh Wei Ping

Abstract:

Throughput is an important measure of performance of production system. Analyzing and modeling of production throughput is complex in today-s dynamic production systems due to uncertainties of production system. The main reasons are that uncertainties are materialized when the production line faces changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, and scraps. Besides, demand changes are fluctuating from time to time for each product type. These uncertainties affect the production performance. This paper proposes Bayesian inference for throughput modeling under five production uncertainties. Bayesian model utilized prior distributions related to previous information about the uncertainties where likelihood distributions are associated to the observed data. Gibbs sampling algorithm as the robust procedure of Monte Carlo Markov chain was employed for sampling unknown parameters and estimating the posterior mean of uncertainties. The Bayesian model was validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results presented that the proposed Bayesian models were capable to predict the production throughput with accuracy of 98.3%.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Uncertainty modeling, Monte Carlo Markov chain, Gibbs sampling, Production throughput

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Authors: Frank Emmert Streib

Abstract:

The classification of the protein structure is commonly not performed for the whole protein but for structural domains, i.e., compact functional units preserved during evolution. Hence, a first step to a protein structure classification is the separation of the protein into its domains. We approach the problem of protein domain identification by proposing a novel graph theoretical algorithm. We represent the protein structure as an undirected, unweighted and unlabeled graph which nodes correspond the secondary structure elements of the protein. This graph is call the protein graph. The domains are then identified as partitions of the graph corresponding to vertices sets obtained by the maximization of an objective function, which mutually maximizes the cycle distributions found in the partitions of the graph. Our algorithm does not utilize any other kind of information besides the cycle-distribution to find the partitions. If a partition is found, the algorithm is iteratively applied to each of the resulting subgraphs. As stop criterion, we calculate numerically a significance level which indicates the stability of the predicted partition against a random rewiring of the protein graph. Hence, our algorithm terminates automatically its iterative application. We present results for one and two domain proteins and compare our results with the manually assigned domains by the SCOP database and differences are discussed.

Keywords: Graph partitioning, unweighted graph, protein domains.

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Authors: Tejeet Singh, Ishavneet Singh

Abstract:

The present study focused on carrying out the creep analysis in an isotropic thick-walled composite cylindrical pressure vessel composed of aluminum matrix reinforced with silicon-carbide in particulate form. The creep behavior of the composite material has been described by the threshold stress based creep law. The values of stress exponent appearing in the creep law were selected as 3, 5 and 8. The constitutive equations were developed using well known von-Mises yield criteria. Models were developed to find out the distributions of creep stress and strain rate in thick-walled composite cylindrical pressure vessels under internal pressure. In order to obtain the stress distributions in the cylinder, the equilibrium equation of the continuum mechanics and the constitutive equations are solved together. It was observed that the radial stress, tangential stress and axial stress increases along with the radial distance. The cross-over was also obtained almost at the middle region of cylindrical vessel for tangential and axial stress for different values of stress exponent. The strain rates were also decreasing in nature along the entire radius.

Keywords: Steady state creep, composite, cylinder, pressure.

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

Abstract:

The probability distributions are the best method for forecasting of extreme hydrologic phenomena such as rainfall and flood flows. In this research, in order to determine suitable probability distribution for estimating of annual extreme rainfall and flood flows (discharge) series with different return periods, precipitation with 40 and discharge with 58 years time period had been collected from Karkheh River at Iran. After homogeneity and adequacy tests, data have been analyzed by Stormwater Management and Design Aid (SMADA) software and residual sum of squares (R.S.S). The best probability distribution was Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S value (145.91) and value (13.67) for peak discharge and Log Pearson Type III with R.S.S values (141.08) and (8.95) for maximum discharge in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations, respectively. The best distribution for maximum precipitation in Jelogir Majin and Pole Zal stations was Log Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.74&1.90) and then Pearson Type III distribution with R.S.S values (1.53&1.69). Overall, the Log Pearson Type III distributions are acceptable distribution types for representing statistics of extreme hydrologic phenomena in Karkheh River at Iran with the Pearson Type III distribution as a potential alternative.

Keywords: Karkheh river, log pearson type III, probability distribution, residual sum of squares.

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