Search results for: Nonlinear system identification
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9586

Search results for: Nonlinear system identification

9526 Identification of Aircraft Gas Turbine Engine's Temperature Condition

Authors: Pashayev A., Askerov D., C. Ardil, Sadiqov R., Abdullayev P.

Abstract:

Groundlessness of application probability-statistic methods are especially shown at an early stage of the aviation GTE technical condition diagnosing, when the volume of the information has property of the fuzzy, limitations, uncertainty and efficiency of application of new technology Soft computing at these diagnosing stages by using the fuzzy logic and neural networks methods. It is made training with high accuracy of multiple linear and nonlinear models (the regression equations) received on the statistical fuzzy data basis. At the information sufficiency it is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and nonlinear generalized models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive least squares method (LSM)). As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine D30KU-154 technical condition at height H=10600 m was made.

Keywords: Identification of a technical condition, aviation gasturbine engine, fuzzy logic and neural networks.

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9525 A Transform Domain Function Controlled VSSLMS Algorithm for Sparse System Identification

Authors: Cemil Turan, Mohammad Shukri Salman

Abstract:

The convergence rate of the least-mean-square (LMS) algorithm deteriorates if the input signal to the filter is correlated. In a system identification problem, this convergence rate can be improved if the signal is white and/or if the system is sparse. We recently proposed a sparse transform domain LMS-type algorithm that uses a variable step-size for a sparse system identification. The proposed algorithm provided high performance even if the input signal is highly correlated. In this work, we investigate the performance of the proposed TD-LMS algorithm for a large number of filter tap which is also a critical issue for standard LMS algorithm. Additionally, the optimum value of the most important parameter is calculated for all experiments. Moreover, the convergence analysis of the proposed algorithm is provided. The performance of the proposed algorithm has been compared to different algorithms in a sparse system identification setting of different sparsity levels and different number of filter taps. Simulations have shown that the proposed algorithm has prominent performance compared to the other algorithms.

Keywords: Adaptive filtering, sparse system identification, VSSLMS algorithm, TD-LMS algorithm.

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9524 Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell System Based On Wiener Model

Authors: T. H. Lee, J. H. Park, S. M. Lee, S. C. Lee

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider Wiener nonlinear model for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). The Wiener model of the SOFC consists of a linear dynamic block and a static output non-linearity followed by the block, in which linear part is approximated by state-space model and the nonlinear part is identified by a polynomial form. To control the SOFC system, we have to consider various view points such as operating conditions, another constraint conditions, change of load current and so on. A change of load current is the significant one of these for good performance of the SOFC system. In order to keep the constant stack terminal voltage by changing load current, the nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) is proposed in this paper. After primary control method is designed to guarantee the fuel utilization as a proper constant, a nonlinear model predictive control based on the Wiener model is developed to control the stack terminal voltage of the SOFC system. Simulation results verify the possibility of the proposed Wiener model and MPC method to control of SOFC system.

Keywords: SOFC, model predictive control, Wiener model.

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9523 Stable Robust Adaptive Controller and Observer Design for a Class of SISO Nonlinear Systems with Unknown Dead Zone

Authors: Ibrahim F. Jasim

Abstract:

This paper presents a new stable robust adaptive controller and observer design for a class of nonlinear systems that contain i. Coupling of unmeasured states and unknown parameters ii. Unknown dead zone at the system actuator. The system is firstly cast into a modified form in which the observer and parameter estimation become feasible. Then a stable robust adaptive controller, state observer, parameter update laws are derived that would provide global adaptive system stability and desirable performance. To validate the approach, simulation was performed to a single-link mechanical system with a dynamic friction model and unknown dead zone exists at the system actuation. Then a comparison is presented with the results when there is no dead zone at the system actuation.

Keywords: Dead Zone, Nonlinear Systems, Observer, Robust Adaptive Control.

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9522 Kalman Filter Design in Structural Identification with Unknown Excitation

Authors: Z. Masoumi, B. Moaveni

Abstract:

This article is about first step of structural health monitoring by identifying structural system in the presence of unknown input. In the structural system identification, identification of structural parameters such as stiffness and damping are considered. In this study, the Kalman filter (KF) design for structural systems with unknown excitation is expressed. External excitations, such as earthquakes, wind or any other forces are not measured or not available. The purpose of this filter is its strengths to estimate the state variables of the system in the presence of unknown input. Also least squares estimation (LSE) method with unknown input is studied. Estimates of parameters have been adopted. Finally, using two examples advantages and drawbacks of both methods are studied.

Keywords: Structural health monitoring, Kalman filter, Least square estimation, structural system identification.

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9521 Model-free Prediction based on Tracking Theory and Newton Form of Polynomial

Authors: Guoyuan Qi , Yskandar Hamam, Barend Jacobus van Wyk, Shengzhi Du

Abstract:

The majority of existing predictors for time series are model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the identification of complex systems, usually involving system identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor (MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.

Keywords: Forecast, model-free predictor, prediction, time series

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9520 Some Third Order Methods for Solving Systems of Nonlinear Equations

Authors: Janak Raj Sharma, Rajni Sharma

Abstract:

Based on Traub-s methods for solving nonlinear equation f(x) = 0, we develop two families of third-order methods for solving system of nonlinear equations F(x) = 0. The families include well-known existing methods as special cases. The stability is corroborated by numerical results. Comparison with well-known methods shows that the present methods are robust. These higher order methods may be very useful in the numerical applications requiring high precision in their computations because these methods yield a clear reduction in number of iterations.

Keywords: Nonlinear equations and systems, Newton's method, fixed point iteration, order of convergence.

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9519 Design of an Augmented Automatic Choosing Control with Constrained Input by Lyapunov Functions Using Gradient Optimization Automatic Choosing Functions

Authors: Toshinori Nawata

Abstract:

In this paper a nonlinear feedback control called augmented automatic choosing control (AACC) for a class of nonlinear systems with constrained input is presented. When designed the control, a constant term which arises from linearization of a given nonlinear system is treated as a coefficient of a stable zero dynamics. Parameters of the control are suboptimally selected by maximizing the stable region in the sense of Lyapunov with the aid of a genetic algorithm. This approach is applied to a field excitation control problem of power system to demonstrate the splendidness of the AACC. Simulation results show that the new controller can improve performance remarkably well.

Keywords: Augmented automatic choosing control, nonlinear control, genetic algorithm, zero dynamics.

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9518 Nonoscillation Criteria for Nonlinear Delay Dynamic Systems on Time Scales

Authors: Xinli Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the nonlinear delay dynamic system xΔ(t) = p(t)f1(y(t)), yΔ(t) = −q(t)f2(x(t − τ )). We obtain some necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of nonoscillatory solutions with special asymptotic properties of the system. We generalize the known results in the literature. One example is given to illustrate the results.

Keywords: Dynamic system, oscillation, time scales, two-dimensional.

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9517 Design of an Augmented Automatic Choosing Control by Lyapunov Functions Using Gradient Optimization Automatic Choosing Functions

Authors: Toshinori Nawata

Abstract:

In this paper we consider a nonlinear feedback control called augmented automatic choosing control (AACC) using the gradient optimization automatic choosing functions for nonlinear systems. Constant terms which arise from sectionwise linearization of a given nonlinear system are treated as coefficients of a stable zero dynamics. Parameters included in the control are suboptimally selected by expanding a stable region in the sense of Lyapunov with the aid of the genetic algorithm. This approach is applied to a field excitation control problem of power system to demonstrate the splendidness of the AACC. Simulation results show that the new controller can improve performance remarkably well.

Keywords: augmented automatic choosing control, nonlinear control, genetic algorithm, zero dynamics.

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9516 Identification and Classification of Plastic Resins using Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy

Authors: Hamed Masoumi, Seyed Mohsen Safavi, Zahra Khani

Abstract:

In this paper, an automated system is presented for identification and separation of plastic resins based on near infrared (NIR) reflectance spectroscopy. For identification and separation among resins, a "Two-Filter" identification method is proposed that is capable to distinguish among polyethylene terephthalate (PET), high density polyethylene (HDPE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polypropylene (PP) and polystyrene (PS). Through surveying effects of parameters such as surface contamination, sample thickness, label and cap existence, it was obvious that the "Two-Filter" method has a high efficiency in identification of resins. It is shown that accurate identification and separation of five major resins can be obtained through calculating the relative reflectance at two wavelengths in the NIR region.

Keywords: Identification, Near Infrared, Plastic, Separation, Spectroscopy

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9515 The Decentralized Nonlinear Controller of Robot Manipulator with External Load Compensation

Authors: Sun Lim, Il-Kyun Jung

Abstract:

This paper describes a newly designed decentralized nonlinear control strategy to control a robot manipulator. Based on the concept of the nonlinear state feedback theory and decentralized concept is developed to improve the drawbacks in previous works concerned with complicate intelligent control and low cost effective sensor. The control methodology is derived in the sense of Lyapunov theorem so that the stability of the control system is guaranteed. The decentralized algorithm does not require other joint angle and velocity information. Individual Joint controller is implemented using a digital processor with nearly actuator to make it possible to achieve good dynamics and modular. Computer simulation result has been conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme under the occurrence of possible uncertainties and different reference trajectories. The merit of the proposed control system is indicated in comparison with a classical control system.

Keywords: Robot manipulator control, nonlinear controller, Lyapunov based stability, Interconnection compensation.

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9514 On the Strong Solutions of the Nonlinear Viscous Rotating Stratified Fluid

Authors: A. Giniatoulline

Abstract:

A nonlinear model of the mathematical fluid dynamics which describes the motion of an incompressible viscous rotating fluid in a homogeneous gravitational field is considered. The model is a generalization of the known Navier-Stokes system with the addition of the Coriolis parameter and the equations for changeable density. An explicit algorithm for the solution is constructed, and the proof of the existence and uniqueness theorems for the strong solution of the nonlinear problem is given. For the linear case, the localization and the structure of the spectrum of inner waves are also investigated.

Keywords: Galerkin method, Navier-Stokes equations, nonlinear partial differential equations, Sobolev spaces, stratified fluid.

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9513 An Augmented Automatic Choosing Control with Constrained Input Using Weighted Gradient Optimization Automatic Choosing Functions

Authors: Toshinori Nawata

Abstract:

In this paper we consider a nonlinear feedback control called augmented automatic choosing control (AACC) for nonlinear systems with constrained input using weighted gradient optimization automatic choosing functions. Constant term which arises from linearization of a given nonlinear system is treated as a coefficient of a stable zero dynamics. Parameters of the control are suboptimally selected by maximizing the stable region in the sense of Lyapunov with the aid of a genetic algorithm. This approach is applied to a field excitation control problem of power system to demonstrate the splendidness of the AACC. Simulation results show that the new controller can improve performance remarkably well.

Keywords: Augmented automatic choosing control, nonlinear control, genetic algorithm, zero dynamics.

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9512 Robust Adaptive ELS-QR Algorithm for Linear Discrete Time Stochastic Systems Identification

Authors: Ginalber L. O. Serra

Abstract:

This work proposes a recursive weighted ELS algorithm for system identification by applying numerically robust orthogonal Householder transformations. The properties of the proposed algorithm show it obtains acceptable results in a noisy environment: fast convergence and asymptotically unbiased estimates. Comparative analysis with others robust methods well known from literature are also presented.

Keywords: Stochastic Systems, Robust Identification, Parameter Estimation, Systems Identification.

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9511 Modeling of a UAV Longitudinal Dynamics through System Identification Technique

Authors: Asadullah I. Qazi, Mansoor Ahsan, Zahir Ashraf, Uzair Ahmad

Abstract:

System identification of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), to acquire its mathematical model, is a significant step in the process of aircraft flight automation. The need for reliable mathematical model is an established requirement for autopilot design, flight simulator development, aircraft performance appraisal, analysis of aircraft modifications, preflight testing of prototype aircraft and investigation of fatigue life and stress distribution etc.  This research is aimed at system identification of a fixed wing UAV by means of specifically designed flight experiment. The purposely designed flight maneuvers were performed on the UAV and aircraft states were recorded during these flights. Acquired data were preprocessed for noise filtering and bias removal followed by parameter estimation of longitudinal dynamics transfer functions using MATLAB system identification toolbox. Black box identification based transfer function models, in response to elevator and throttle inputs, were estimated using least square error   technique. The identification results show a high confidence level and goodness of fit between the estimated model and actual aircraft response.

Keywords: Black box modeling, fixed wing aircraft, least square error, longitudinal dynamics, system identification.

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9510 An Augmented Automatic Choosing Control Designed by Extremizing a Combination of Hamiltonian and Lyapunov Functions for Nonlinear Systems with Constrained Input

Authors: Toshinori Nawata, Hitoshi Takata

Abstract:

In this paper we consider a nonlinear feedback control called augmented automatic choosing control (AACC) for nonlinear systems with constrained input. Constant terms which arise from section wise linearization of a given nonlinear system are treated as coefficients of a stable zero dynamics.Parameters included in the control are suboptimally selectedby extremizing a combination of Hamiltonian and Lyapunov functions with the aid of the genetic algorithm. This approach is applied to a field excitation control problem of power system to demonstrate the splendidness of the AACC. Simulation results show that the new controller can improve performance remarkably well.

Keywords: Augmented Automatic Choosing Control, NonlinearControl, Genetic Algorithm, Hamiltonian, Lyapunovfunction

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9509 Digital Image Encryption Scheme using Chaotic Sequences with a Nonlinear Function

Authors: H. Ogras, M. Turk

Abstract:

In this study, a system of encryption based on chaotic sequences is described. The system is used for encrypting digital image data for the purpose of secure image transmission. An image secure communication scheme based on Logistic map chaotic sequences with a nonlinear function is proposed in this paper. Encryption and decryption keys are obtained by one-dimensional Logistic map that generates secret key for the input of the nonlinear function. Receiver can recover the information using the received signal and identical key sequences through the inverse system technique. The results of computer simulations indicate that the transmitted source image can be correctly and reliably recovered by using proposed scheme even under the noisy channel. The performance of the system will be discussed through evaluating the quality of recovered image with and without channel noise.

Keywords: Digital image, Image encryption, Secure communication

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9508 Signal and Harmonic Analysis of a Compressor Blade for Identification of the Nonlinear Frequency Vibration

Authors: Farhad Asadi, Gholamhasan Payganeh

Abstract:

High-speed turbomachine can experience significant centrifugal and gas bending loads. As a result, the compressor blades must be able to resist high-frequency oscillations due to surge or stall condition in flow field dynamics. In this paper, vibration characteristics of the 6th stage blade compressor have been examined in detail with, using 3-D finite element (FE) methods. The primary aim of this article is to gain an understanding of nonlinear vibration induced in the blade against different loading conditions. The results indicate the nonlinear behavior of the blade as a result of the amplitude of resonances or material properties. Since one of the leading causes of turbine blade failure is high cycle fatigue, simulations were started by specifying the stress distribution in the blade due to the centrifugal rotation. Next, resonant frequencies and critical speeds of the blade were defined by modal analysis. Finally, the harmonic analysis was simulated on the blades.

Keywords: Nonlinear vibration, modal analysis, resonance, frequency response, compressor blade.

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9507 River Flow Prediction Using Nonlinear Prediction Method

Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential to ensure proper management of water resources can be optimally distribute water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method involving monthly river flow data in Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The phase space reconstruction involves the reconstruction of one-dimensional (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. Revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) have been employed to compare prediction performance for nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show the prediction results using nonlinear prediction method is better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the result of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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9506 Generalized Differential Quadrature Nonlinear Consolidation Analysis of Clay Layer with Time-Varied Drainage Conditions

Authors: A. Bahmanikashkouli, O.R. Bahadori Nezhad

Abstract:

In this article, the phenomenon of nonlinear consolidation in saturated and homogeneous clay layer is studied. Considering time-varied drainage model, the excess pore water pressure in the layer depth is calculated. The Generalized Differential Quadrature (GDQ) method is used for the modeling and numerical analysis. For the purpose of analysis, first the domain of independent variables (i.e., time and clay layer depth) is discretized by the Chebyshev-Gauss-Lobatto series and then the nonlinear system of equations obtained from the GDQ method is solved by means of the Newton-Raphson approach. The obtained results indicate that the Generalized Differential Quadrature method, in addition to being simple to apply, enjoys a very high accuracy in the calculation of excess pore water pressure.

Keywords: Generalized Differential Quadrature method, Nonlinear consolidation, Nonlinear system of equations, Time-varied drainage

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9505 On the System of Nonlinear Rational Difference Equations

Authors: Qianhong Zhang, Wenzhuan Zhang

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the global asymptotic behavior of positive solution for a system of two nonlinear rational difference equations. Moreover, some numerical examples are given to illustrate results obtained.

Keywords: Difference equations, stability, unstable, global asymptotic behavior.

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9504 Adaptive Kalman Filter for Noise Estimation and Identification with Bayesian Approach

Authors: Farhad Asadi, S. Hossein Sadati

Abstract:

Bayesian approach can be used for parameter identification and extraction in state space models and its ability for analyzing sequence of data in dynamical system is proved in different literatures. In this paper, adaptive Kalman filter with Bayesian approach for identification of variances in measurement parameter noise is developed. Next, it is applied for estimation of the dynamical state and measurement data in discrete linear dynamical system. This algorithm at each step time estimates noise variance in measurement noise and state of system with Kalman filter. Next, approximation is designed at each step separately and consequently sufficient statistics of the state and noise variances are computed with a fixed-point iteration of an adaptive Kalman filter. Different simulations are applied for showing the influence of noise variance in measurement data on algorithm. Firstly, the effect of noise variance and its distribution on detection and identification performance is simulated in Kalman filter without Bayesian formulation. Then, simulation is applied to adaptive Kalman filter with the ability of noise variance tracking in measurement data. In these simulations, the influence of noise distribution of measurement data in each step is estimated, and true variance of data is obtained by algorithm and is compared in different scenarios. Afterwards, one typical modeling of nonlinear state space model with inducing noise measurement is simulated by this approach. Finally, the performance and the important limitations of this algorithm in these simulations are explained. 

Keywords: adaptive filtering, Bayesian approach Kalman filtering approach, variance tracking

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9503 Evolved Bat Algorithm Based Adaptive Fuzzy Sliding Mode Control with LMI Criterion

Authors: P.-W. Tsai, C.-Y. Chen, C.-W. Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, the stability analysis of a GA-Based adaptive fuzzy sliding model controller for a nonlinear system is discussed. First, a nonlinear plant is well-approximated and described with a reference model and a fuzzy model, both involving FLC rules. Then, FLC rules and the consequent parameter are decided on via an Evolved Bat Algorithm (EBA). After this, we guarantee a new tracking performance inequality for the control system. The tracking problem is characterized to solve an eigenvalue problem (EVP). Next, an adaptive fuzzy sliding model controller (AFSMC) is proposed to stabilize the system so as to achieve good control performance. Lyapunov’s direct method can be used to ensure the stability of the nonlinear system. It is shown that the stability analysis can reduce nonlinear systems into a linear matrix inequality (LMI) problem. Finally, a numerical simulation is provided to demonstrate the control methodology.

Keywords: Adaptive fuzzy sliding mode control, Lyapunov direct method, swarm intelligence, evolved bat algorithm.

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9502 Light Tracking Fault Tolerant Control System

Authors: J. Florescu, T. Vinay, L. Wang

Abstract:

A fault detection and identification (FDI) technique is presented to create a fault tolerant control system (FTC). The fault detection is achieved by monitoring the position of the light source using an array of light sensors. When a decision is made about the presence of a fault an identification process is initiated to locate the faulty component and reconfigure the controller signals. The signals provided by the sensors are predictable; therefore the existence of a fault is easily identified. Identification of the faulty sensor is based on the dynamics of the frame. The technique is not restricted to a particular type of controllers and the results show consistency.

Keywords: algorithm, detection and diagnostic, fault-tolerantcontrol, fault detection and identification.

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9501 Adaptive Sliding Mode Observer for a Class of Systems

Authors: D.Elleuch, T.Damak

Abstract:

In this paper, the performance of two adaptive observers applied to interconnected systems is studied. The nonlinearity of systems can be written in a fractional form. The first adaptive observer is an adaptive sliding mode observer for a Lipchitz nonlinear system and the second one is an adaptive sliding mode observer having a filtered error as a sliding surface. After comparing their performances throughout the inverted pendulum mounted on a car system, it was shown that the second one is more robust to estimate the state.

Keywords: Adaptive observer, Lipchitz system, Interconnected fractional nonlinear system, sliding mode.

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9500 Numerical Study of a Class of Nonlinear Partial Differential Equations

Authors: Kholod M. Abu-Alnaja

Abstract:

In this work, we derive two numerical schemes for solving a class of nonlinear partial differential equations. The first method is of second order accuracy in space and time directions, the scheme is unconditionally stable using Von Neumann stability analysis, the scheme produced a nonlinear block system where Newton-s method is used to solve it. The second method is of fourth order accuracy in space and second order in time. The method is unconditionally stable and Newton's method is used to solve the nonlinear block system obtained. The exact single soliton solution and the conserved quantities are used to assess the accuracy and to show the robustness of the schemes. The interaction of two solitary waves for different parameters are also discussed.

Keywords: Crank-Nicolson Scheme, Douglas Scheme, Partial Differential Equations

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9499 Nonlinear Controller for Fuzzy Model of Double Inverted Pendulums

Authors: I. Zamani, M. H. Zarif

Abstract:

In this paper a method for designing of nonlinear controller for a fuzzy model of Double Inverted Pendulum is proposed. This system can be considered as a fuzzy large-scale system that includes offset terms and disturbance in each subsystem. Offset terms are deterministic and disturbances are satisfied a matching condition that is mentioned in the paper. Based on Lyapunov theorem, a nonlinear controller is designed for this fuzzy system (as a model reference base) which is simple in computation and guarantees stability. This idea can be used for other fuzzy large- scale systems that include more subsystems Finally, the results are shown.

Keywords: Controller, Fuzzy Double Inverted Pendulums, Fuzzy Large-Scale Systems, Lyapunov Stability.

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9498 Software Tools for System Identification and Control using Neural Networks in Process Engineering

Authors: J. Fernandez de Canete, S. Gonzalez-Perez, P. del Saz-Orozco

Abstract:

Neural networks offer an alternative approach both for identification and control of nonlinear processes in process engineering. The lack of software tools for the design of controllers based on neural network models is particularly pronounced in this field. SIMULINK is properly a widely used graphical code development environment which allows system-level developers to perform rapid prototyping and testing. Such graphical based programming environment involves block-based code development and offers a more intuitive approach to modeling and control task in a great variety of engineering disciplines. In this paper a SIMULINK based Neural Tool has been developed for analysis and design of multivariable neural based control systems. This tool has been applied to the control of a high purity distillation column including non linear hydrodynamic effects. The proposed control scheme offers an optimal response for both theoretical and practical challenges posed in process control task, in particular when both, the quality improvement of distillation products and the operation efficiency in economical terms are considered.

Keywords: Distillation, neural networks, software tools, identification, control.

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9497 Monthly River Flow Prediction Using a Nonlinear Prediction Method

Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential tool to ensure proper management of water resources and the optimal distribution of water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method with monthly river flow data for Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The reconstruction of phase space involves the reconstruction of one-dimension (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. The revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) was employed to compare prediction performance for the nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show that the prediction results using the nonlinear prediction method are better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the results of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation of water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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