Search results for: Object Based Environment
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 13176

Search results for: Object Based Environment

5136 Flood Scenarios for Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Modelling

Authors: Md. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H Sharma, Fatema Akram

Abstract:

Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameters remaining stationary. However climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise are likely to change. To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: Climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment.

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5135 Generalized Maximum Entropy Method for Cosmic Source Localization

Authors: Youssef Khmou, Said Safi, Miloud Frikel

Abstract:

The Maximum entropy principle in spectral analysis was used as an estimator of Direction of Arrival (DoA) of electromagnetic or acoustic sources impinging on an array of sensors, indeed the maximum entropy operator is very efficient when the signals of the radiating sources are ergodic and complex zero mean random processes which is the case for cosmic sources. In this paper, we present basic review of the maximum entropy method (MEM) which consists of rank one operator but not a projector, and we elaborate a new operator which is full rank and sum of all possible projectors. Two dimensional Simulation results based on Monte Carlo trials prove the resolution power of the new operator where the MEM presents some erroneous fluctuations.

Keywords: Maximum entropy, Cosmic source, Localization, operator, projector, azimuth, elevation, DoA, circular array.

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5134 Online Programme of Excellence Model (OPEM)

Authors: Luis M. Villar, Olga M. Alegre

Abstract:

Finding effective ways of improving university quality assurance requires, as well, a retraining of the staff. This article illustrates an Online Programme of Excellence Model (OPEM), based on the European quality assurance model, for improving participants- formative programme standards. The results of applying this OPEM indicate the necessity of quality policies that support the evaluators- competencies to improve formative programmes. The study concludes by outlining how faculty and agency staff can use OPEM for the internal and external quality assurance of formative programmes.

Keywords: Formative assessment, Online faculty excellence program, Teaching competencies, University quality assurance.

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5133 Testing Visual Abilities of Machines - Visual Intelligence Tests

Authors: Zbigniew Les, Magdalena Les

Abstract:

Intelligence tests are series of tasks designed to measure the capacity to make abstractions, to learn, and to deal with novel situations. Testing of the visual abilities of the shape understanding system (SUS) is performed based on the visual intelligence tests. In this paper the progressive matrices tests are formulated as tasks given to SUS. These tests require good visual problem solving abilities of the human subject. SUS solves these tests by performing complex visual reasoning transforming the visual forms (tests) into the string forms. The experiment proved that the proposed method, which is part of the SUS visual understanding abilities, can solve a test that is very difficult for human subject.

Keywords: Shape understanding, intelligence test, visual concept, visual reasoning.

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5132 Improvement Plant Layout Using Systematic Layout Planning (SLP) for Increased Productivity

Authors: W. Wiyaratn, A. Watanapa

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to study plant layout of iron manufacturing based on the systematic layout planning pattern theory (SLP) for increased productivity. In this case study, amount of equipments and tools in iron production are studied. The detailed study of the plant layout such as operation process chart, flow of material and activity relationship chart has been investigated. The new plant layout has been designed and compared with the present plant layout. The SLP method showed that new plant layout significantly decrease the distance of material flow from billet cutting process until keeping in ware house.

Keywords: Plant layout, Systematic Layout Planning, Flowanalysis, Activity relationship chart

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5131 A Tubular Electrode for Radiofrequency Ablation Therapy

Authors: Carlos L. Antunes, Tony R. Almeida, Nélia Raposeiro, Belarmino Gonçalves, Paulo Almeida, André Antunes

Abstract:

In the last two decades radiofrequency ablation (RFA) has been considered a promising medical procedure for the treatment of primary and secondary malignancies. However, the needle-based electrodes so far developed for this kind of treatment are not suitable for the thermal ablation of tumors located in hollow organs like esophagus, colon or bile duct. In this work a tubular electrode solution is presented. Numerical and experimental analyses were performed to characterize the volume of the lesion induced. Results show that this kind of electrode is a feasible solution and numerical simulation might provide a tool for planning RFA procedure with some accuracy.

Keywords: 3D modeling, cancer, medical therapy, radiofrequency ablation.

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5130 Angle of Arrival Detection with Fifth Order Phase Operators

Authors: Youssef Khmou, Said Safi

Abstract:

In this paper, a fifth order propagator operators are proposed for estimating the Angles Of Arrival (AOA) of narrowband electromagnetic waves impinging on antenna array when its number of sensors is larger than the number of radiating sources.

The array response matrix is partitioned into five linearly dependent phases to construct the noise projector using five different propagators from non diagonal blocks of the spectral matrice of the received data; hence, five different estimators are proposed to estimate the angles of the sources. The simulation results proved the performance of the proposed estimators in the presence of white noise comparatively to high resolution eigen based spectra.

Keywords: DOA, narrowband, antenna, propagator, high resolution. Array, operator, angular, spectrum, goniometry.

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5129 Impact of Reproductive Technologies on Women’s Lives in New Delhi: A Study from Feminist Perspective

Authors: Zairunisha

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the ways in which Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ARTs) affect women’s lives and perceptions regarding their infertility, contraception and reproductive health. The paper is based on a qualitative feminist survey study to explore and analyze issues arising from the use of ARTs by women in New Delhi, the capital of India. A rapid growth in the number of fertility clinics has been noticed recently. A critical analysis of interviews revealed that these technologies are used and developed for making profits at the cost of women’s lives. In this way, these technologies are influencing and changing the traditional patterns of motherhood requiring a rethinking about new ways of reproduction introduced through the use of ARTs.

Keywords: Assisted reproductive technologies, new ways reproduction, voluntary and involuntary choice, women.

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5128 Web Based Real Time Laboratory Applications of Analog and Digital Communication Courses with Lab VIEW Access

Authors: Ayse Yayla, Aynur Akar

Abstract:

Developments in scientific and technical area cause to use new methods and techniques in education, as is the case in all fields. Especially, the internet contributes a variety of new methods to design virtual and real time laboratory applications in education. In this study, a real time virtual laboratory is designed and implemented for analog and digital communications laboratory experiments by using Lab VIEW program for Marmara University Electronics-Communication Department. In this application, students can access the virtual laboratory web site and perform their experiments without any limitation of time and location so as the students can observe the signals by changing the parameters of the experiment and evaluate the results.

Keywords: Virtual laboratory, LabVIEW, ModulationTechniques

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5127 A Matrix Evaluation Model for Sustainability Assessment of Manufacturing Technologies

Authors: Q. Z. Yang, B. H. Chua, B. Song

Abstract:

Technology assessment is a vital part of decision process in manufacturing, particularly for decisions on selection of new sustainable manufacturing processes. To assess these processes, a matrix approach is introduced and sustainability assessment models are developed. Case studies show that the matrix-based approach provides a flexible and practical way for sustainability evaluation of new manufacturing technologies such as those used in surface coating. The technology assessment of coating processes reveals that compared with powder coating, the sol-gel coating can deliver better technical, economical and environmental sustainability with respect to the selected sustainability evaluation criteria for a decorative coating application of car wheels.

Keywords: Evaluation matrix, sustainable manufacturing, surface coating, technology assessment

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5126 Cutting Tools in Finishing Operations for CNC Rapid Manufacturing Processes: Experimental Studies

Authors: M. N. Osman Zahid, K. Case, D. Watts

Abstract:

This paper reports an advanced approach in the application of CNC machining for rapid manufacturing processes (CNC-RM). The aim of this study is to improve the quality of machined parts by introducing different cutting tools during finishing operations. As the cutting is performed in different directions, the surfaces presented on part can be classified into several categories. Therefore, suitable cutting tools are assigned to machine particular surfaces and to improve the quality. Experimental studies have been carried out by fabricating several parts based on the suggested approach. The results provide further support for implementing this approach in rapid machining processes.

Keywords: CNC machining, End mill tool, Finishing operation, Rapid manufacturing.

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5125 Transmission Loss Allocation via Loss Function Decomposition and Current Projection Concept

Authors: M.R. Ebrahimi, Z. Ghofrani, M. Ehsan

Abstract:

One of the major problems in liberalized power markets is loss allocation. In this paper, a different method for allocating transmission losses to pool market participants is proposed. The proposed method is fundamentally based on decomposition of loss function and current projection concept. The method has been implemented and tested on several networks and one sample summarized in the paper. The results show that the method is comprehensive and fair to allocating the energy losses of a power market to its participants.

Keywords: Transmission loss, loss allocation, current projectionconcept, loss function decomposition.

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5124 Competitive Advantage on the Road Again: Exploring Nuances through a Conceptual Review and Future Research Avenues

Authors: Abdolali Mortazavi, Faegheh Taheran

Abstract:

By giving an overview of previous arguments and findings concerned with the concept of competitive advantage, first, we define the overall concept of competitive advantage and discuss nuances of understanding such an important and strategic idea. Finally, by considering the major concerns of marketing academia, including globalization, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based technologies, consumer well-being, and internal coopetition between a firm’s units, fruitful avenues to be explored by future studies are presented in the form of research propositions. In the end, relevant gaps mentioned by numerous studies that are worth investigating are demonstrated.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, competitive advantage, consumer well-being, coopetition, globalization, literature review, temporary competitive advantage.

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5123 Analyzing the Technology Affecting on the Social Integration of Students at University

Authors: Sujit K. Basak, Simon Collin

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to examine the technology access and use on the affecting social integration of local students at university. This aim is achieved by designing a structural equation modeling (SEM) in terms of integration with peers, integration with faculty, faculty support and on the other hand, examining the socio demographic impact on the technology access and use. The collected data were analyzed using the WarpPLS 5.0 software. This study was survey based and it was conducted at a public university in Canada. The results of the study indicated that technology has a strong impact on integration with faculty, faculty support, but technology does not have an impact on integration with peers. However, the social demographic has also an impact on the technology access and use.

Keywords: Faculty, integration, peer, technology access and use.

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5122 An Automated High Pressure Differential Thermal Analysis System for Phase Transformation Studies

Authors: T. K. Mondal, N C Shivaprakash

Abstract:

A piston cylinder based high pressure differential thermal analyzer system is developed to investigate phase transformations, melting, glass transitions, crystallization behavior of inorganic materials, glassy systems etc., at ambient to 4 GPa and at room temperature to 1073 K. The pressure is calibrated by the phase transition of bismuth and ytterbium and temperature is calibrated by using thermocouple data chart. The system developed is calibrated using benzoic acid, ammonium nitrate and it has a pressure and temperature control of ± 8.9 x 10 -4 GPa , ± 2 K respectively. The phase transition of Asx Te100-x chalcogenides, ferrous oxide and strontium boride are studied using the indigenously developed system.

Keywords: double stage crystallization, Phase transition, Quasi hydrostatic, Rigidity percolation

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5121 Low Voltage Squarer Using Floating Gate MOSFETs

Authors: Rishikesh Pandey, Maneesha Gupta

Abstract:

A new low-voltage floating gate MOSFET (FGMOS) based squarer using square law characteristic of the FGMOS is proposed in this paper. The major advantages of the squarer are simplicity, rail-to-rail input dynamic range, low total harmonic distortion, and low power consumption. The proposed circuit is biased without body effect. The circuit is designed and simulated using SPICE in 0.25μm CMOS technology. The squarer is operated at the supply voltages of ±0.75V . The total harmonic distortion (THD) for the input signal 0.75Vpp at 25 KHz, and maximum power consumption were found to be less than 1% and 319μW respectively.

Keywords: Analog signal processing, floating gate MOSFETs, low-voltage, Spice, squarer.

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5120 Addressing the Oracle Problem: Decentralized Authentication in Blockchain-Based Green Hydrogen Certification

Authors: Volker Wannack

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to present a concept for addressing the Oracle Problem in the context of hydrogen production using renewable energy sources. The proposed approach relies on the authentication of the electricity used for hydrogen production by multiple surrounding actors with similar electricity generation facilities, which attest to the authenticity of the electricity production. The concept introduces an Authenticity Score assigned to each certificate, as well as a Trust Score assigned to each witness. Each certificate must be attested by different actors with a sufficient Trust Score to achieve an Authenticity Score above a predefined threshold, thereby demonstrating that the produced hydrogen is indeed "green."

Keywords: Hydrogen, blockchain, sustainability, structural change.

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5119 On the Prediction of Transmembrane Helical Segments in Membrane Proteins

Authors: Yu Bin, Zhang Yan

Abstract:

The prediction of transmembrane helical segments (TMHs) in membrane proteins is an important field in the bioinformatics research. In this paper, a method based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) has been developed to predict the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins. PDB coded as 1F88 was chosen as an example to describe the prediction of the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins by using this method. One group of test data sets that contain total 19 protein sequences was utilized to access the effect of this method. Compared with the prediction results of DAS, PRED-TMR2, SOSUI, HMMTOP2.0 and TMHMM2.0, the obtained results indicate that the presented method has higher prediction accuracy.

Keywords: hydrophobicity, membrane protein, transmembranehelical segments, wavelet transform

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5118 Use of Locomotor Activity of Rainbow Trout Juveniles in Identifying Sublethal Concentrations of Landfill Leachate

Authors: Tomas Makaras, Gintaras Svecevičius

Abstract:

Landfill waste is a common problem as it has an economic and environmental impact even if it is closed. Landfill waste contains a high density of various persistent compounds such as heavy metals, organic and inorganic materials. As persistent compounds are slowly-degradable or even non-degradable in the environment, they often produce sublethal or even lethal effects on aquatic organisms. The aims of the present study were to estimate sublethal effects of the Kairiai landfill (WGS: 55°55‘46.74“, 23°23‘28.4“) leachate on the locomotor activity of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss juveniles using the original system package developed in our laboratory for automated monitoring, recording and analysis of aquatic organisms’ activity, and to determine patterns of fish behavioral response to sublethal effects of leachate. Four different concentrations of leachate were chosen: 0.125; 0.25; 0.5 and 1.0 mL/L (0.0025; 0.005; 0.01 and 0.002 as part of 96-hour LC50, respectively). Locomotor activity was measured after 5, 10 and 30 minutes of exposure during 1-minute test-periods of each fish (7 fish per treatment). The threshold-effect-concentration amounted to 0.18 mL/L (0.0036 parts of 96-hour LC50). This concentration was found to be even 2.8-fold lower than the concentration generally assumed to be “safe” for fish. At higher concentrations, the landfill leachate solution elicited behavioral response of test fish to sublethal levels of pollutants. The ability of the rainbow trout to detect and avoid contaminants occurred after 5 minutes of exposure. The intensity of locomotor activity reached a peak within 10 minutes, evidently decreasing after 30 minutes. This could be explained by the physiological and biochemical adaptation of fish to altered environmental conditions. It has been established that the locomotor activity of juvenile trout depends on leachate concentration and exposure duration. Modeling of these parameters showed that the activity of juveniles increased at higher leachate concentrations, but slightly decreased with the increasing exposure duration. Experiment results confirm that the behavior of rainbow trout juveniles is a sensitive and rapid biomarker that can be used in combination with the system for fish behavior monitoring, registration and analysis to determine sublethal concentrations of pollutants in ambient water. Further research should be focused on software improvement aimed to include more parameters of aquatic organisms’ behavior and to investigate the most rapid and appropriate behavioral responses in different species. In practice, this study could be the basis for the development and creation of biological early-warning systems (BEWS).

Keywords: Fish behavior biomarker, landfill leachate, locomotor activity, rainbow trout juveniles, sublethal effects.

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5117 Encoding and Compressing Data for Decreasing Number of Switches in Baseline Networks

Authors: Mohammad Ali Jabraeil Jamali, Ahmad Khademzadeh, Hasan Asil, Amir Asil

Abstract:

This method decrease usage power (expenditure) in networks on chips (NOC). This method data coding for data transferring in order to reduces expenditure. This method uses data compression reduces the size. Expenditure calculation in NOC occurs inside of NOC based on grown models and transitive activities in entry ports. The goal of simulating is to weigh expenditure for encoding, decoding and compressing in Baseline networks and reduction of switches in this type of networks. KeywordsNetworks on chip, Compression, Encoding, Baseline networks, Banyan networks.

Keywords: Networks on chip, Compression, Encoding, Baseline networks, Banyan networks

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5116 An Analytical Comparison between Open Loop, PID and Fuzzy Logic Based DC-DC Boost Convertor

Authors: Muhammad Mujtaba Asad, Razali Bin Hassan, Fahad Sherwani

Abstract:

This paper explains about the voltage output for DC to DC boost converter between open loop, PID controller and fuzzy logic controller through Matlab Simulink. Simulink input voltage was set at 12V and the voltage reference was set at 24V. The analysis on the deviation of voltage resulted that the difference between reference voltage setting and the output voltage is always lower. Comparison between open loop, PID and FLC shows that, the open loop circuit having a bit higher on the deviation of voltage. The PID circuit boosts for FLC has a lesser deviation of voltage and proved that it is such a better performance on control the deviation of voltage during the boost mode.

Keywords: Boost Convertors, Power Electronics, PID, Fuzzy logic, Open loop.

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5115 An Edit-Distance Algorithm to Detect Correlated Attacks in Distributed Systems

Authors: Sule Simsek

Abstract:

Intrusion detection systems (IDS)are crucial components of the security mechanisms of today-s computer systems. Existing research on intrusion detection has focused on sequential intrusions. However, intrusions can also be formed by concurrent interactions of multiple processes. Some of the intrusions caused by these interactions cannot be detected using sequential intrusion detection methods. Therefore, there is a need for a mechanism that views the distributed system as a whole. L-BIDS (Lattice-Based Intrusion Detection System) is proposed to address this problem. In the L-BIDS framework, a library of intrusions and distributed traces are represented as lattices. Then these lattices are compared in order to detect intrusions in the distributed traces.

Keywords: Attack graph, distributed, edit-distance, misuse detection.

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5114 Robot Task-Level Programming Language and Simulation

Authors: M. Samaka

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of a software application for Off-line robot task programming and simulation. Such application is designed to assist in robot task planning and to direct manipulator motion on sensor based programmed motion. The concept of the designed programming application is to use the power of the knowledge base for task accumulation. In support of the programming means, an interactive graphical simulation for manipulator kinematics was also developed and integrated into the application as the complimentary factor to the robot programming media. The simulation provides the designer with useful, inexpensive, off-line tools for retain and testing robotics work cells and automated assembly lines for various industrial applications.

Keywords: Robot programming, task-level programming, robot languages, robot simulation, robotics software.

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5113 Effects of Asphalt Modification with Nanomaterials on Fresh and Stored Bitumen

Authors: Ahmed W. Oda, Ahmed El-Desouky, Hassan Mahdy, Osama M. Moussa

Abstract:

Nanomaterials have many applications in the field of asphalt paving. Two locally produced nanomaterials were used in the asphalt binder modification. The nanomaterials used are Nanosilica (NS), and Nanoclay (NC). The virgin asphalt binder was characterized by the conventional tests. The bitumen was modified by 3%, 5% and 7% of NS and NC. The penetration index (PI), and the retaining penetration (RP) was calculated based on the results of the penetration and the softening point tests. The results show that the RP becomes 95.35% at 5% NS modified bitumen and reaches 97.56% when bitumen is modified with 3% NC. The results show significant improvement in the bitumen stiffness when modified by the two types of nanomaterials, either fresh or aged (stored).

Keywords: Bitumen, modified bitumen, aged, stored, nanomaterials.

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5112 Routing Load Analysis over 802.11 DCF of Reactive Routing Protocols DSR and DYMO

Authors: Parma Nand, S.C. Sharma

Abstract:

The Mobile Ad-hoc Network (MANET) is a collection of self-configuring and rapidly deployed mobile nodes (routers) without any central infrastructure. Routing is one of the potential issues. Many routing protocols are reported but it is difficult to decide which one is best in all scenarios. In this paper on demand routing protocols DSR and DYMO based on IEEE 802.11 DCF MAC protocol are examined and characteristic summary of these routing protocols is presented. Their performance is analyzed and compared on performance measuring metrics throughput, dropped packets due to non availability of routes, duplicate RREQ generated for route discovery and normalized routing load by varying CBR data traffic load using QualNet 5.0.2 network simulator.

Keywords: Adhoc networks, wireless networks, CBR, routingprotocols, route discovery, simulation, performance evaluation, MAC, IEEE 802.11.

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5111 Behavioral Modeling Accuracy for RF Power Amplifier with Memory Effects

Authors: Chokri Jebali, Noureddine Boulejfen, Ali Gharsallah, Fadhel M. Ghannouchi

Abstract:

In this paper, a system level behavioural model for RF power amplifier, which exhibits memory effects, and based on multibranch system is proposed. When higher order terms are included, the memory polynomial model (MPM) exhibits numerical instabilities. A set of memory orthogonal polynomial model (OMPM) is introduced to alleviate the numerical instability problem associated to MPM model. A data scaling and centring algorithm was applied to improve the power amplifier modeling accuracy. Simulation results prove that the numerical instability can be greatly reduced, as well as the model precision improved with nonlinear model.

Keywords: power amplifier, orthogonal model, polynomialmodel , memory effects.

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5110 Press Hardening of Tubes with Additional Interior Spray Cooling

Authors: B.-A. Behrens, H. J. Maier, A. Neumann, J. Moritz, S. Hübner, T. Gretzki, F. Nürnberger, A. Spiekermeier

Abstract:

Press-hardened profiles are used e.g. for automotive applications in order to improve light weight construction due to the high reachable strength. The application of interior water-air spray cooling contributes to significantly reducing the cycle time in the production of heat-treated tubes. This paper describes a new manufacturing method for producing press-hardened hollow profiles by means of an additional interior cooling based on a water-air spray. Furthermore, this paper provides the results of thorough investigations on the properties of press-hardened tubes in dependence of varying spray parameters.

Keywords: 22MnB5, hollow profiles, press hardening, tubes, water-air spray cooling.

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5109 Multi Objective Micro Genetic Algorithm for Combine and Reroute Problem

Authors: Soottipoom Yaowiwat, Manoj Lohatepanont, Proadpran Punyabukkana

Abstract:

Several approaches such as linear programming, network modeling, greedy heuristic and decision support system are well-known approaches in solving irregular airline operation problem. This paper presents an alternative approach based on Multi Objective Micro Genetic Algorithm. The aim of this research is to introduce the concept of Multi Objective Micro Genetic Algorithm as a tool to solve irregular airline operation, combine and reroute problem. The experiment result indicated that the model could obtain optimal solutions within a few second.

Keywords: Irregular Airline Operation, Combine and RerouteRoutine, Genetic Algorithm, Micro Genetic Algorithm, Multi ObjectiveOptimization, Evolutionary Algorithm.

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5108 An Optimization Algorithm Based on Dynamic Schema with Dissimilarities and Similarities of Chromosomes

Authors: Radhwan Yousif Sedik Al-Jawadi

Abstract:

Optimization is necessary for finding appropriate solutions to a range of real-life problems. In particular, genetic (or more generally, evolutionary) algorithms have proved very useful in solving many problems for which analytical solutions are not available. In this paper, we present an optimization algorithm called Dynamic Schema with Dissimilarity and Similarity of Chromosomes (DSDSC) which is a variant of the classical genetic algorithm. This approach constructs new chromosomes from a schema and pairs of existing ones by exploring their dissimilarities and similarities. To show the effectiveness of the algorithm, it is tested and compared with the classical GA, on 15 two-dimensional optimization problems taken from literature. We have found that, in most cases, our method is better than the classical genetic algorithm.

Keywords: Genetic algorithm, similarity and dissimilarity, chromosome injection, dynamic schema.

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5107 Dynamic Analyses for Passenger Volume of Domestic Airline and High Speed Rail

Authors: Shih-Ching Lo

Abstract:

Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption.

Keywords: forecasting, passenger volume, dynamic competition model, external variable, oil price

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