Search results for: stochastic simulation algorithm.

Authors: M. Umar Farooq, T. Ahmad Afridi, M. Zia-Ul-Islam Arsalan, U. Hussain Haider, S. Ullah

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Cancer, a leading fatal disease worldwide, can be treated with various techniques including radiation therapy. It involves the use of ionizing radiation to target cancer cells. On basis of source placement, radiation therapy is of two types i.e., Brachytherapy and External Beam Radiotherapy (EBRT). EBRT has evolved from 2-D conventional therapy to 3-D Conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) and then Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy (IMRT). IMRT improves dose conformity and sparing of organs at risk. Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) is a modern technique that uses treatment delivery in arcs with rotation of the gantry. In this report, a dosimetry comparison was performed between IMRT and VMAT. This study was conducted in the Radiotherapy Department of the Institute of Nuclear Medicine and Oncology Lahore (INMOL). Ten patients with Prostate Carcinoma were selected for this study to compare the methods. Simulation of these patients was done with help of a CT Simulator. All target volumes and organs were delineated by the oncologists. Then suitable fields/arcs were applied which cover volumes effectively. This was followed by the optimization of plans for both techniques for every patient. Finally, a comparison of evaluating parameters e.g., Conformity Index (CI), Volume Coverage, Homogeneity Index (HI), Organ Doses, and MUs (Monitor Units) was performed. We obtained better results of target conformity indices from VMAT (CI = 1.16) than IMRT (CI = 1.24). VMAT was better in organ sparing too. Also, VMAT shows fewer MUs (733 MUs) as compared to IMRT (2149 MUs). From this study, it is concluded that VMAT is a better treatment technique than IMRT. This technique will enhance treatment efficiency as it takes less time in obtaining the required results. Also, a very less scatter dose will be delivered to the patient.

Keywords: 2-D Conventional Radiotherapy, 3-D Conformal Radiotherapy, Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy, Prostate Carcinoma, Radiotherapy, Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy.

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Authors: A.H. Sajedipoor, N. Hedayat, M. Mashal

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Sedimentation is a hydraulic phenomenon that is emerging as a serious challenge in river engineering. When the flow reaches a certain state that gather potential energy, it shifts the sediment load along channel bed. The transport of such materials can be in the form of suspended and bed loads. The movement of these along the river course and channels and the ways in which this could influence the water intakes is considered as the major challenges for sustainable O&M of hydraulic structures. This could be very serious in arid and semi-arid regions like Iran, where inappropriate watershed management could lead to shifting a great deal of sediments into the reservoirs and irrigation systems. This paper aims to investigate sedimentation in the Western Canal of Dez Diversion Weir in Iran, identifying factors which influence the process and provide ways in which to mitigate its detrimental effects by using the SHARC Software. For the purpose of this paper, data from the Dezful water authority and Dezful Hydrometric Station pertinent to a river course of about 6 Km were used. Results estimated sand and silt bed loads concentrations to be 193 ppm and 827ppm respectively. Given the available data on average annual bed loads and average suspended sediment loads of 165ppm and 837ppm, there was a significant statistical difference (16%) between the sand grains, whereas no significant difference (1.2%) was find in the silt grain sizes. One explanation for such finding being that along the 6 Km river course there was considerable meandering effects which explains recent shift in the hydraulic behavior along the stream course under investigation. The sand concentration in downstream relative to present state of the canal showed a steep descending curve. Sediment trapping on the other hand indicated a steep ascending curve. These occurred because the diversion weir was not considered in the simulation model.

Keywords: SHARC model, sedimentation, Western canal, Dezdiversion weir

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Authors: Farhad H. Mustafa, Mohamad S. Jaafar , Asaad H. Ismail, Ahamad F. Omar, Zahra A. Timimi, Hend A. A. Houssein

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The process of laser absorption in the skin during laser irradiation was a critical point in medical application treatments. Delivery the correct amount of laser light is a critical element in photodynamic therapy (PDT). More amounts of laser light able to affect tissues in the skin and small amount not able to enhance PDT procedure in skin. The knowledge of the skin tone laser dependent distribution of 635 nm radiation and its penetration depth in skin is a very important precondition for the investigation of advantage laser induced effect in (PDT) in epidermis diseases (psoriasis). The aim of this work was to estimate an optimum effect of diode laser (635 nm) on the treatment of epidermis diseases in different color skin. Furthermore, it is to improve safety of laser in PDT in epidermis diseases treatment. Advanced system analytical program (ASAP) which is a new approach in investigating the PDT, dependent on optical properties of different skin color was used in present work. A two layered Realistic Skin Model (RSM); stratum corneum and epidermal with red laser (635 nm, 10 mW) were used for irradiative transfer to study fluence and absorbance in different penetration for various human skin colors. Several skin tones very fair, fair, light, medium and dark are used to irradiative transfer. This investigation involved the principles of laser tissue interaction when the skin optically injected by a red laser diode. The results demonstrated that the power characteristic of a laser diode (635 nm) can affect the treatment of epidermal disease in various color skins. Power absorption of the various human skins were recorded and analyzed in order to find the influence of the melanin in PDT treatment in epidermal disease. A two layered RSM show that the change in penetration depth in epidermal layer of the color skin has a larger effect on the distribution of absorbed laser in the skin; this is due to the variation of the melanin concentration for each color.

Keywords: Photodynamic therapy, Realistic skin model, Laser, Light penetration, simulation, Optical properties of skin, Melanin.

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Authors: Damian Ramajo, Santiago Corzo, Norberto Nigro

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A Multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) two-phase model was developed with the aim to simulate the in-core coolant circuit of a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) of a commercial nuclear power plant (NPP). Due to the fact that this PHWR is a Reactor Pressure Vessel type (RPV), three-dimensional (3D) detailed modelling of the large reservoirs of the RPV (the upper and lower plenums and the downcomer) were coupled with an in-house finite volume one-dimensional (1D) code in order to model the 451 coolant channels housing the nuclear fuel. Regarding the 1D code, suitable empirical correlations for taking into account the in-channel distributed (friction losses) and concentrated (spacer grids, inlet and outlet throttles) pressure losses were used. A local power distribution at each one of the coolant channels was also taken into account. The heat transfer between the coolant and the surrounding moderator was accurately calculated using a two-dimensional theoretical model. The implementation of subcooled boiling and condensation models in the 1D code along with the use of functions for representing the thermal and dynamic properties of the coolant and moderator (heavy water) allow to have estimations of the in-core steam generation under nominal flow conditions for a generic fission power distribution. The in-core mass flow distribution results for steady state nominal conditions are in agreement with the expected from design, thus getting a first assessment of the coupled 1/3D model. Results for nominal condition were compared with those obtained with a previous 1/3D single-phase model getting more realistic temperature patterns, also allowing visualize low values of void fraction inside the upper plenum. It must be mentioned that the current results were obtained by imposing prescribed fission power functions from literature. Therefore, results are showed with the aim of point out the potentiality of the developed model.

Keywords: CFD, PHWR, Thermo-hydraulic, Two-phase flow.

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Authors: Guarry Montrose, Ted Soubdhan

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In the context of sustainable development and climate change, the adaptation of buildings to the climatic context in hot climates is a necessity if we want to improve living conditions in housing and reduce the risks to the health and productivity of occupants due to thermal discomfort in buildings. One can find a wide variety of efficient solutions but with high costs. In developing countries, especially tropical countries, we need to appreciate a technology with a very limited cost that is affordable for everyone, energy efficient and protects the environment. Biosourced insulation is a product based on plant fibers, animal products or products from recyclable paper or clothing. Their development meets the objectives of maintaining biodiversity, reducing waste and protecting the environment. In tropical or hot countries, the aim is to protect the building from solar thermal radiation, a source of discomfort. The aim of this work is in line with the logic of energy control and environmental protection, the approach is to make the occupants of buildings comfortable, reduce their carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂) and decrease their energy consumption (energy efficiency). We have chosen to study the thermo-physical properties of banana leaves and sawdust, especially their thermal conductivities, direct measurements were made using the flash method and the hot plate method. We also measured the heat flow on both sides of each sample by the hot box method. The results from these different experiences show that these materials are very efficient used as insulation. We have also conducted a building thermal simulation using banana leaves as one of the materials under Design Builder software. Air-conditioning load as well as CO₂ release was used as performance indicator. When the air-conditioned building cell is protected on the roof by banana leaves and integrated into the walls with solar protection of the glazing, it saves up to 64.3% of energy and avoids 57% of CO₂ emissions.

Keywords: Plant fibers, tropical climates, sustainable development, waste reduction.

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Authors: Fazl Ullah, Rahmat Ullah

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This paper shows a comprehensive learning focused on the optimization of gas production in shale gas reservoirs through hydraulic fracturing. Shale gas has emerged as an important unconventional vigor resource, necessitating innovative techniques to enhance its extraction. The key objective of this study is to examine the influence of fracture parameters on reservoir productivity and formulate strategies for production optimization. A sophisticated model integrating gas flow dynamics and real stress considerations is developed for hydraulic fracturing in multi-stage shale gas reservoirs. This model encompasses distinct zones: a single-porosity medium region, a dual-porosity average region, and a hydraulic fracture region. The apparent permeability of the matrix and fracture system is modeled using principles like effective stress mechanics, porous elastic medium theory, fractal dimension evolution, and fluid transport apparatuses. The developed model is then validated using field data from the Barnett and Marcellus formations, enhancing its reliability and accuracy. By solving the partial differential equation by means of COMSOL software, the research yields valuable insights into optimal fracture parameters. The findings reveal the influence of fracture length, diversion capacity, and width on gas production. For reservoirs with higher permeability, extending hydraulic fracture lengths proves beneficial, while complex fracture geometries offer potential for low-permeability reservoirs. Overall, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of hydraulic cracking dynamics in shale gas reservoirs and provides essential guidance for optimizing gas production. The research findings are instrumental for energy industry professionals, researchers, and policymakers alike, shaping the future of sustainable energy extraction from unconventional resources.

Keywords: Fluid-solid coupling, apparent permeability, shale gas reservoir, fracture property, numerical simulation.

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Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

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Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: Average run length, Bernoulli CUSUM chart, beta binomial posterior predictive distribution, clinical indicator, health care organization, highest posterior density interval.

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Authors: Miroslav Byrtus

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Large rotating systems, especially gear drives and gearboxes, occur as parts of many mechanical devices transmitting the torque with relatively small loss of power. With the increased demand for high speed machinery, mathematical modeling and dynamic analysis of gear drives gained importance. Mathematical description of such mechanical systems is a complex task evolving for several decades. In gear drive dynamic models, which include flexible shafts, bearings and gearing and use the finite elements, nonlinear effects due to gear mesh and bearings are usually ignored, for such models have large number of degrees of freedom (DOF) and it is computationally expensive to analyze nonlinear systems with large number of DOF. Therefore, these models are not suitable for simulation of nonlinear behavior with amplitude jumps in frequency response. The contribution uses a methodology of nonlinear large rotating system modeling which is based on degrees of freedom (DOF) number reduction using modal synthesis method (MSM). The MSM enables significant DOF number reduction while keeping the nonlinear behavior of the system in a specific frequency range. Further, the MSM with DOF number reduction is suitable for including detail models of nonlinear couplings (mainly gear and bearing couplings) into the complete gear drive models. Since each subsystem is modeled separately using different FEM systems, it is advantageous to parameterize models of subsystems and to use the parameterization for optimization of chosen design parameters. Final complex model of gear drive is assembled in MATLAB and MATLAB tools are used for dynamical analysis of the nonlinear system. The contribution is further focused on developing of a methodology for investigation of behavior of the system by Nonlinear Normal Modes with combination of the MSM using numerical continuation method. The proposed methodology will be tested using a two-stage gearbox including its housing.

Keywords: Vibro-impact system, rotating system, gear drive, modal synthesis method, numerical continuation method, periodic solution.

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Authors: S. Kong Wang

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the efficiency of a double-layer roof in collecting solar energy as an application to the areas such as raising high-end temperature of organic Rankine cycle (ORC). The by-product of the solar roof is to reduce building air-conditioning loads. The experimental apparatus are arranged to evaluate the effects of the solar roof in absorbing solar energy. The flow channel is basically formed by an aluminum plate on top of a plywood plate. The geometric configurations in which the effects of absorbing energy is analyzed include: a bare uncovered aluminum plate, a glass-covered aluminum plate, a glass-covered/black-painted aluminum plate, a plate with variable lengths, a flow channel with stuffed material (in an attempt on enhancement of heat conduction), and a flow channel with variable slanted angles. The experimental results show that the efficiency of energy collection varies from 0.6 % to 11 % for the geometric configurations mentioned above. An additional study is carried out using CFD simulation to investigate the effects of fins on the aluminum plate. It shows that due to vastly enhanced heat conduction, the efficiency can reach ~23 % if 50 fins are installed on the aluminum plate. The study shows that a double-layer roof can efficiently absorb solar energy and substantially reduce building air-conditioning loads. On the high end of an organic Rankine cycle, a solar pond is used to replace the warm surface water of the sea as OTEC (ocean thermal energy conversion) is the driving energy for the ORC. The energy collected from the double-layered solar roof can be pumped into the pond and raise the pond temperature as the pond surface area is equivalently increased by nearly one-fourth of the total area of the double-layer solar roof. The effect of raising solar pond temperature is especially prominent if the double-layer solar roofs are installed in a community area.

Keywords: solar energy collection, double-layer solar roof, energy conservation, ORC, OTEC

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Authors: Barbara Vojvodikova, Katerina Jupova, Iva Ticha

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Cities in their historical evolution have always adapted their internal structure to the needs of society (for example protective city walls during classicism era lost their defense function, became unnecessary, were demolished and gave space for new features such as roads, museums or parks). Today it is necessary to modify the internal structure of the city in order to minimize the impact of climate changes on the environment of the population. This article discusses the results of the Urban Climate model owned by VITO, which was carried out as part of a project from the European Union's Horizon grant agreement No 730004 Pan-European Urban Climate Services Climate-Fit city. The use of the model was aimed at changes in land use and land cover in cities related to urban heat islands (UHI). The task of the application was to evaluate possible land use change scenarios in connection with city requirements and ideas. Two pilot areas in the Czech Republic were selected. One is Ostrava and the other Hodonín. The paper provides a demonstration of the application of the model for various possible future development scenarios. It contains an assessment of the suitability or inappropriateness of scenarios of future development depending on the temperature increase. Cities that are preparing to reconstruct the public space are interested in eliminating proposals that would lead to an increase in temperature stress as early as in the assignment phase. If they have evaluation on the unsuitability of some type of design, they can limit it into the proposal phases. Therefore, especially in the application of models on Local level - in 1 m spatial resolution, it was necessary to show which type of proposals would create a significant temperature island in its implementation. Such a type of proposal is considered unsuitable. The model shows that the building itself can create a shady place and thus contribute to the reduction of the UHI. If it sensitively approaches the protection of existing greenery, this new construction may not pose a significant problem. More massive interventions leading to the reduction of existing greenery create a new heat island space.

Keywords: Heat islands, land use, urban climate model.

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Authors: Francis William S, Imtiaz Ahmed Choudhury, Ananda Kumar Eriki, A. John Rajan

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Diesel Engines emit complex mixtures of inorganic and organic compounds in the form of both solid and vapour phase particles. Most of the particulates released are ultrafine nanoparticles which are detrimental to human health and can easily enter the body by respiration. The emissions standards on particulate matter release from diesel engines are constantly upgraded within the European Union and with future regulations based on the particles numbers released instead of merely mass, the need for effective aftertreatment devices will increase. Standard particulate filters in the form of wall flow filters can have problems with high soot accumulation, producing a large exhaust backpressure. A potential solution would be to combine the standard filter with a flow through filter to reduce the load on the wall flow filter. In this paper soot particle trapping has been simulated in different continuous flow filters of monolithic structure including the use of promoters, at laminar flow conditions. An Euler Lagrange model, the discrete phase model in Ansys used with user defined functions for forces acting on particles. A method to quickly screen trapping of 5 nm and 10 nm particles in different catalysts designs with tracers was also developed. Simulations of square duct monoliths with promoters show that the strength of the vortices produced are not enough to give a high amount of particle deposition on the catalyst walls. The smallest particles in the simulations, 5 and 10 nm particles were trapped to a higher extent, than larger particles up to 1000 nm, in all studied geometries with the predominant deposition mechanism being Brownian diffusion. The comparison of the different filters designed with a wall flow filter does show that the options for altering a design of a flow through filter, without imposing a too large pressure drop penalty are good.

Keywords: Diesel Engine trap, thermophoresis, Exhaust pipe, PM-Simulation modeling.

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

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In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Lèvy flight, situation awareness, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence.

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Authors: Seon-Ho Yoon, Jin-Young Choi, Dong-Jun Won

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This paper presents hierarchical operation strategies which are minimizing operation error between day ahead operation plan and real time operation. Operating power systems between centralized and decentralized approaches can be represented as hierarchical control scheme, featured as primary control, secondary control and tertiary control. Primary control is known as local control, featuring fast response. Secondary control is referred to as microgrid Energy Management System (EMS). Tertiary control is responsible of coordinating the operations of multi-microgrids. In this paper, we formulated 3 stage microgrid operation strategies which are similar to hierarchical control scheme. First stage is to set a day ahead scheduled output power of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) which is only controllable source in microgrid and it is optimized to minimize cost of exchanged power with main grid using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) method. Second stage is to control the active and reactive power of BESS to be operated in day ahead scheduled plan in case that State of Charge (SOC) error occurs between real time and scheduled plan. The third is rescheduling the system when the predicted error is over the limited value. The first stage can be compared with the secondary control in that it adjusts the active power. The second stage is comparable to the primary control in that it controls the error in local manner. The third stage is compared with the secondary control in that it manages power balancing. The proposed strategies will be applied to one of the buildings in Electronics and Telecommunication Research Institute (ETRI). The building microgrid is composed of Photovoltaic (PV) generation, BESS and load and it will be interconnected with the main grid. Main purpose of that is minimizing operation cost and to be operated in scheduled plan. Simulation results support validation of proposed strategies.

Keywords: Battery energy storage system, energy management system, microgrid, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: Bing Lu, Shuang Li, Hongyuan Zhou

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The steel-concrete hybrid structure has been extensively employed in high-rise buildings and super high-rise buildings. The light gauge steel-concrete hybrid structure, including light gauge steel structure and concrete hybrid structure, is a type of steel-concrete hybrid structure, which possesses some advantages of light gauge steel structure and concrete hybrid structure. The seismic behavior and loss assessment of three high-rise buildings with three different concrete hybrid structures were investigated through finite element software. The three concrete hybrid structures are reinforced concrete column-steel beam (RC-S) hybrid structure, concrete-filled steel tube column-steel beam (CFST-S) hybrid structure, and tubed concrete column-steel beam (TC-S) hybrid structure. The nonlinear time-history analysis of three high-rise buildings under 80 earthquakes was carried out. After simulation, it indicated that the seismic performances of three high-rise buildings were superior. Under extremely rare earthquakes, the maximum inter-story drifts of three high-rise buildings are significantly lower than 1/50. The inter-story drift and floor acceleration of high-rise building with CFST-S hybrid structure were bigger than those of high-rise buildings with RC-S hybrid structure, and smaller than those of high-rise building with TC-S hybrid structure. Then, based on the time-history analysis results, the post-earthquake repair cost ratio and repair time of three high-rise buildings were predicted through an economic performance analysis method proposed in FEMA-P58 report. Under frequent earthquakes, basic earthquakes and rare earthquakes, the repair cost ratio and repair time of three high-rise buildings were less than 5% and 15 days, respectively. Under extremely rare earthquakes, the repair cost ratio and repair time of high-rise buildings with TC-S hybrid structure were the most among three high rise buildings. Due to the advantages of CFST-S hybrid structure, it could be extensively employed in high-rise buildings subjected to earthquake excitations.

Keywords: seismic behavior, loss assessment, light gauge steel, concrete hybrid structure, high-rise building, time-history analysis

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Authors: N. Hernández Huertas, F. Rojas Mora

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Sounding rockets are aerospace vehicles that were developed in the mid-20th century, and since then numerous investigations have been executed with the aim of innovate in this type of technology. However, the costs associated to the production of this type of technology are usually quite high, and therefore the challenge that exists today is to be able to reduce them. In this way, the main objective of this document is to present the design process of a Colombian aerospace mission capable to reach the thermosphere using low-cost “Candy” type solid fuel engines. This mission is the latest development of the Uniandes Aerospace Project (PUA for its Spanish acronym), which is an undergraduate and postgraduate research group at Universidad de los Andes (Bogotá, Colombia), dedicated to incurring in this type of technology. In this way, the investigations that have been carried out on Candy-type solid fuel, which is a compound of potassium nitrate and sorbitol, have allowed the production of engines powerful enough to reach space, and which represents a unique technological advance in Latin America and an important development in experimental rocketry. In this way, following the engineering iterative design methodology was possible to design a 2-stage sounding rocket with 1 solid fuel engine in each one, which was then simulated in RockSim V9.0 software and reached an apogee of approximately 150 km above sea level. Similarly, a speed equal to 5 Mach was obtained, which after performing a finite element analysis, it was shown that the rocket is strong enough to be able to withstand such speeds. Under these premises, it was demonstrated that it is possible to build a high-power aerospace mission at low cost, using Candy-type solid fuel engines. For this reason, the feasibility of carrying out similar missions clearly depends on the ability to replicate the engines in the best way, since as mentioned above, the design of the rocket is adequate to reach supersonic speeds and reach space. Consequently, with a team of at least 3 members, the mission can be obtained in less than 3 months. Therefore, when publishing this project, it is intended to be a reference for future research in this field and benefit the industry.

Keywords: Aerospace missions, candy type solid propellant engines, design of solid rockets, experimental rocketry, low costs missions.

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Authors: Kung-Jen Tu, Danny Vernatha

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To assist individual departments within universities in their energy management tasks, this study explores the application of Building Information Modeling in establishing the ‘BIM based Energy Management Support System’ (BIM-EMSS). The BIM-EMSS consists of six components: (1) sensors installed for each occupant and each equipment, (2) electricity sub-meters (constantly logging lighting, HVAC, and socket electricity consumptions of each room), (3) BIM models of all rooms within individual departments’ facilities, (4) data warehouse (for storing occupancy status and logged electricity consumption data), (5) building energy management system that provides energy managers with various energy management functions, and (6) energy simulation tool (such as eQuest) that generates real time 'standard energy consumptions' data against which 'actual energy consumptions' data are compared and energy efficiency evaluated. Through the building energy management system, the energy manager is able to (a) have 3D visualization (BIM model) of each room, in which the occupancy and equipment status detected by the sensors and the electricity consumptions data logged are displayed constantly; (b) perform real time energy consumption analysis to compare the actual and standard energy consumption profiles of a space; (c) obtain energy consumption anomaly detection warnings on certain rooms so that energy management corrective actions can be further taken (data mining technique is employed to analyze the relation between space occupancy pattern with current space equipment setting to indicate an anomaly, such as when appliances turn on without occupancy); and (d) perform historical energy consumption analysis to review monthly and annually energy consumption profiles and compare them against historical energy profiles. The BIM-EMSS was further implemented in a research lab in the Department of Architecture of NTUST in Taiwan and implementation results presented to illustrate how it can be used to assist individual departments within universities in their energy management tasks.

Keywords: Sensor, electricity sub-meters, database, energy anomaly detection.

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Authors: Nicolò Vaiana, Filip C. Filippou, Giorgio Serino

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In order to reduce numerical computations in the nonlinear dynamic analysis of seismically base-isolated structures, a Mixed Explicit-Implicit time integration Method (MEIM) has been proposed. Adopting the explicit conditionally stable central difference method to compute the nonlinear response of the base isolation system, and the implicit unconditionally stable Newmark’s constant average acceleration method to determine the superstructure linear response, the proposed MEIM, which is conditionally stable due to the use of the central difference method, allows to avoid the iterative procedure generally required by conventional monolithic solution approaches within each time step of the analysis. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the stability and computational efficiency of the MEIM when employed to perform the nonlinear time history analysis of base-isolated structures with sliding bearings. Indeed, in this case, the critical time step could become smaller than the one used to define accurately the earthquake excitation due to the very high initial stiffness values of such devices. The numerical results obtained from nonlinear dynamic analyses of a base-isolated structure with a friction pendulum bearing system, performed by using the proposed MEIM, are compared to those obtained adopting a conventional monolithic solution approach, i.e. the implicit unconditionally stable Newmark’s constant acceleration method employed in conjunction with the iterative pseudo-force procedure. According to the numerical results, in the presented numerical application, the MEIM does not have stability problems being the critical time step larger than the ground acceleration one despite of the high initial stiffness of the friction pendulum bearings. In addition, compared to the conventional monolithic solution approach, the proposed algorithm preserves its computational efficiency even when it is adopted to perform the nonlinear dynamic analysis using a smaller time step.

Keywords: Base isolation, computational efficiency, mixed explicit-implicit method, partitioned solution approach, stability.

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Authors: Seyedeh Mozhgan Seyed-Talebi, Javad Beheshtian

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The toxicity of lead associated with the lifecycle of perovskite solar cells (PSCs( is a serious concern which may prove to be a major hurdle in the path toward their commercialization. The current proposed lead-free PSCs including Ag(I), Bi(III), Sb(III), Ti(IV), Ge(II), and Sn(II) low-toxicity cations are still plagued with the critical issues of poor stability and low efficiency. This is mainly because of their chemical stability. In the present research, utilization of all inorganic CsSnGeI₃ based materials offers the advantages to enhance resistance of device to degradation, reduce the cost of cells, and minimize the carrier recombination. The presence of inorganic halide perovskite improves the photovoltaic parameters of PCSs via improved surface coverage and stability. The inverted structure of simulated devices using a 1D simulator like solar cell capacitance simulator (SCAPS) version 3308 involves TCOHTL/Perovskite/ETL/Au contact layer. PEDOT:PSS, PCBM, and CsSnGeI₃ used as hole transporting layer (HTL), electron transporting layer (ETL), and perovskite absorber layer in the inverted structure for the first time. The holes are injected from highly stable and air tolerant Sn_0.5Ge_0.5I₃ perovskite composition to HTM and electrons from the perovskite to ETL. Simulation results revealed a great dependence of power conversion efficiency (PCE) on the thickness and defect density of perovskite layer. Here the effect of an increase in operating temperature from 300 K to 400 K on the performance of CsSnGeI₃ based perovskite devices is investigated. Comparison between simulated CsSnGeI₃ based PCSs and similar real testified devices with spiro-OMeTAD as HTL showed that the extraction of carriers at the interfaces of perovskite absorber depends on the energy level mismatches between perovskite and HTL/ETL. We believe that optimization results reported here represent a critical avenue for fabricating the stable, low-cost, efficient, and eco-friendly all-inorganic Cs-Sn-Ge based lead-free perovskite devices.

Keywords: Hole transporting layer, lead-free, perovskite Solar cell, SCAPS-1D, Sn-Ge based material.

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Authors: Jožef Ritonja, Bojan Grčar, Boštjan Polajžer

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In recent years, electricity trade between neighboring countries has become increasingly intense. Increasing power transmission over long distances has resulted in an increase in the oscillations of the transmitted power. The damping of the oscillations can be carried out with the reconfiguration of the network or the replacement of generators, but such solution is not economically reasonable. The only cost-effective solution to improve the damping of power oscillations is to use power system stabilizers. Power system stabilizer represents a part of synchronous generator control system. It utilizes semiconductor’s excitation system connected to the rotor field excitation winding to increase the damping of the power system. The majority of the synchronous generators are equipped with the conventional power system stabilizers with fixed parameters. The control structure of the conventional power system stabilizers and the tuning procedure are based on the linear control theory. Conventional power system stabilizers are simple to realize, but they show non-sufficient damping improvement in the entire operating conditions. This is the reason that advanced control theories are used for development of better power system stabilizers. In this paper, the adaptive control theory for power system stabilizers design and synthesis is studied. The presented work is focused on the use of model reference adaptive control approach. Control signal, which assures that the controlled plant output will follow the reference model output, is generated by the adaptive algorithm. Adaptive gains are obtained as a combination of the "proportional" term and with the σ-term extended "integral" term. The σ-term is introduced to avoid divergence of the integral gains. The necessary condition for asymptotic tracking is derived by means of hyperstability theory. The benefits of the proposed model reference adaptive power system stabilizer were evaluated as objectively as possible by means of a theoretical analysis, numerical simulations and laboratory realizations. Damping of the synchronous generator oscillations in the entire operating range was investigated. Obtained results show the improved damping in the entire operating area and the increase of the power system stability. The results of the presented work will help by the development of the model reference power system stabilizer which should be able to replace the conventional stabilizers in power systems.

Keywords: Power system, stability, oscillations, power system stabilizer, model reference adaptive control.

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Authors: Yuri Boiko, Iluju Kiringa, Tet Yeap

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Current drainage attack suggested previously is further studied in regular settings of closed-loop controlled Brushless DC (BLDC) motor with Kalman filter in the feedback loop. Modeling and simulation experiments are conducted in a MATLAB environment, implementing the closed-loop control model of BLDC motor operation in position sensorless mode under Kalman filter drive. The current increase in the motor windings is caused by the controller (p-controller in our case) affected by false data injection of substitution of the angular velocity estimates with distorted values. Operation of multiplication to distortion coefficient, values of which are taken from the distortion function synchronized in its periodicity with the rotor’s position change. A saw function with a triangular tooth shape is studied herewith for the purpose of carrying out the bias injection with current drainage consequences. The specific focus here is on how the asymmetry of the tooth in the saw function affects the flow of current drainage. The purpose is two-fold: (i) to produce and collect the signature of an asymmetric saw in the attack for further pattern recognition process, and (ii) to determine conditions of improving stealthiness of such attack via regulating asymmetry in saw function used. It is found that modification of the symmetry in the saw tooth affects the periodicity of current drainage modulation. Specifically, the modulation frequency of the drained current for a fully asymmetric tooth shape coincides with the saw function modulation frequency itself. Increasing the symmetry parameter for the triangle tooth shape leads to an increase in the modulation frequency for the drained current. Moreover, such frequency reaches the switching frequency of the motor windings for fully symmetric triangular shapes, thus becoming undetectable and improving the stealthiness of the attack. Therefore, the collected signatures of the attack can serve for attack parameter identification via the pattern recognition route.

Keywords: Bias injection attack, Kalman filter, BLDC motor, control system, closed loop, P-controller, PID-controller, current drainage, saw-function, asymmetry.

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Authors: Asal Pournaghshband

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This paper presents the development of a finite element model to study the large deflection behaviour of restrained stainless steel cellular beams at elevated temperature. Cellular beams are widely used for efficient utilization of raw materials to facilitate long spans with faster construction resulting sustainable design solution that can enhance the performance and merit of any construction project. However, their load carrying capacity is less than the equivalent beams without opening due to developing shear-moment interaction at the openings. In structural frames due to elements continuity, such beams are restrained by their adjoining members which has a substantial effect on beams behaviour in fire. Stainless steel has also become integral part of the build environment due to its excellent corrosion resistance, whole life-cycle costs, and sustainability. This paper reports the numerical investigations into the effect of structural continuity on the thermo-mechanical performance of restrained steel beams with circle and elongated circle shapes of web opening in fire. The numerical model is firstly validated using existing numerical results from the literature, and then employed to perform a parametric study. Parametric studies to explore the influence of variation in i) axial restraint stiffness, ii) steel grades, iii) shape and size of web openings, and iv) load level were described. Hence, the structural continuity is evaluated through the application of different levels of axial restraints on the response of carbon steel and stainless steel cellular beam in fire. The transit temperature for stainless steel cellular beam is shown to be less affected by the level of axial stiffness than the equivalent carbon steel cellular beam. Overall, it was established that whereas stainless steel cellular beams show similar stages of behaviour of carbon steel cellular beams in fire, they are capable of withstanding higher temperatures prior to the onset of catenary action in large deflection, despite the higher thermal expansion of stainless steel material.

Keywords: Axial restraint, catenary action, cellular beam, fire, numerical modelling, stainless steel, transit temperature.

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Authors: P. Bogas

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As a scientific contribution to this discussion, a pedagogical intervention of a quasi-experimental nature was developed, with a mixed methodology, evaluating the intervention within a single curricular unit of Marketing, using cases based on real challenges of brands, business simulation and customer projects. Primary and secondary experiences were incorporated in the intervention: the primary experiences are the experiential activities themselves; the secondary experiences resulted from the primary experience, such as reflection and discussion in work teams. A diversified learning relationship was encouraged through the various connections between the different members of the learning community. The present study concludes that in the same context, the students' response can be described as: students who reinforce the initial deep approach, students who maintain the initial deep approach level and others who change from an emphasis on the deep approach to one closer to superficial. This typology did not always confirm studies reported in the literature, namely, whether the initial level of deep processing would influence the superficial and the opposite. The result of this investigation points to the inclusion of pedagogical and didactic activities that integrate different motivations and initial strategies, leading to a possible adoption of deep approaches to learning, since it revealed statistically significant differences in the difference in the scores of the deep/superficial approach and the experiential level. In the case of real challenges, the categories of “attribution of meaning and meaning of studied” and the possibility of “contact with an aspirational context” for their future professional stand out. In this category, the dimensions of autonomy that will be required of them were also revealed when comparing the classroom context of real cases and the future professional context and the impact they may have on the world. Regarding to the simulated practice, two categories of response stand out: on the one hand, the motivation associated with the possibility of measuring the results of the decisions taken, an awareness of oneself and, on the other hand, the additional effort that this practice required for some of the students.

Keywords: Experiential learning, higher education, marketing, mixed methods, reflective thinking.

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Authors: Marcel Schneider, Nils Nießen

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Microscopic simulation tool kits allow for consideration of the two processes of railway operations and the previous timetable production. Block occupation conflicts on both process levels are often solved by using defined train priorities. These conflict resolutions (dispatching decisions) generate reactionary delays to the involved trains. The sum of reactionary delays is commonly used to evaluate the quality of railway operations, which describes the timetable robustness. It is either compared to an acceptable train performance or the delays are appraised economically by linear monetary functions. It is impossible to adequately evaluate dispatching decisions without a well-founded objective function. This paper presents a new approach for the evaluation of dispatching decisions. The approach uses mode choice models and considers the behaviour of the end-customers. These models evaluate the reactionary delays in more detail and consider other competing modes of transport. The new approach pursues the coupling of a microscopic model of railway operations with the macroscopic choice mode model. At first, it will be implemented for railway operations process but it can also be used for timetable production. The evaluation considers the possibility for the customer to interchange to other transport modes. The new approach starts to look at rail and road, but it can also be extended to air travel. The result of mode choice models is the modal split. The reactions by the end-customers have an impact on the revenue of the train operating companies. Different purposes of travel have different payment reserves and tolerances towards late running. Aside from changes to revenues, longer journey times can also generate additional costs. The costs are either time- or track-specific and arise from required changes to rolling stock or train crew cycles. Only the variable values are summarised in the contribution margin, which is the base for the monetary evaluation of delays. The contribution margin is calculated for different possible solutions to the same conflict. The conflict resolution is optimised until the monetary loss becomes minimal. The iterative process therefore determines an optimum conflict resolution by monitoring the change to the contribution margin. Furthermore, a monetary value of each dispatching decision can also be derived.

Keywords: Choice of mode, monetary evaluation, railway operations, reactionary delays.

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Authors: Shafiq R. Qureshi, Syed Noman Danish, Muhammad Saeed Khalid

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Fossil fuels are the major source to meet the world energy requirements but its rapidly diminishing rate and adverse effects on our ecological system are of major concern. Renewable energy utilization is the need of time to meet the future challenges. Ocean energy is the one of these promising energy resources. Threefourths of the earth-s surface is covered by the oceans. This enormous energy resource is contained in the oceans- waters, the air above the oceans, and the land beneath them. The renewable energy source of ocean mainly is contained in waves, ocean current and offshore solar energy. Very fewer efforts have been made to harness this reliable and predictable resource. Harnessing of ocean energy needs detail knowledge of underlying mathematical governing equation and their analysis. With the advent of extra ordinary computational resources it is now possible to predict the wave climatology in lab simulation. Several techniques have been developed mostly stem from numerical analysis of Navier Stokes equations. This paper presents a brief over view of such mathematical model and tools to understand and analyze the wave climatology. Models of 1st, 2nd and 3rd generations have been developed to estimate the wave characteristics to assess the power potential. A brief overview of available wave energy technologies is also given. A novel concept of on-shore wave energy extraction method is also presented at the end. The concept is based upon total energy conservation, where energy of wave is transferred to the flexible converter to increase its kinetic energy. Squeezing action by the external pressure on the converter body results in increase velocities at discharge section. High velocity head then can be used for energy storage or for direct utility of power generation. This converter utilizes the both potential and kinetic energy of the waves and designed for on-shore or near-shore application. Increased wave height at the shore due to shoaling effects increases the potential energy of the waves which is converted to renewable energy. This approach will result in economic wave energy converter due to near shore installation and more dense waves due to shoaling. Method will be more efficient because of tapping both potential and kinetic energy of the waves.

Keywords: Energy Utilizing, Wave Shoaling Phenomenon

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Authors: Priyanka Chaudhary, M. Rizwan

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This paper presents a grid synchronization technique based on adaptive notch filter for SPV (Solar Photovoltaic) system along with MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracking) techniques. An efficient grid synchronization technique offers proficient detection of various components of grid signal like phase and frequency. It also acts as a barrier for harmonics and other disturbances in grid signal. A reference phase signal synchronized with the grid voltage is provided by the grid synchronization technique to standardize the system with grid codes and power quality standards. Hence, grid synchronization unit plays important role for grid connected SPV systems. As the output of the PV array is fluctuating in nature with the meteorological parameters like irradiance, temperature, wind etc. In order to maintain a constant DC voltage at VSC (Voltage Source Converter) input, MPPT control is required to track the maximum power point from PV array. In this work, a variable step size P & O (Perturb and Observe) MPPT technique with DC/DC boost converter has been used at first stage of the system. This algorithm divides the dPpv/dVpv curve of PV panel into three separate zones i.e. zone 0, zone 1 and zone 2. A fine value of tracking step size is used in zone 0 while zone 1 and zone 2 requires a large value of step size in order to obtain a high tracking speed. Further, adaptive notch filter based control technique is proposed for VSC in PV generation system. Adaptive notch filter (ANF) approach is used to synchronize the interfaced PV system with grid to maintain the amplitude, phase and frequency parameters as well as power quality improvement. This technique offers the compensation of harmonics current and reactive power with both linear and nonlinear loads. To maintain constant DC link voltage a PI controller is also implemented and presented in this paper. The complete system has been designed, developed and simulated using SimPower System and Simulink toolbox of MATLAB. The performance analysis of three phase grid connected solar photovoltaic system has been carried out on the basis of various parameters like PV output power, PV voltage, PV current, DC link voltage, PCC (Point of Common Coupling) voltage, grid voltage, grid current, voltage source converter current, power supplied by the voltage source converter etc. The results obtained from the proposed system are found satisfactory.

Keywords: Solar photovoltaic systems, MPPT, voltage source converter, grid synchronization technique.

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Authors: E. Dabbour, S. M. Easa

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Most of the collision warning systems currently available in the automotive market are mainly designed to warn against imminent rear-end and lane-changing collisions. No collision warning system is commercially available to warn against imminent turning collisions at intersections, especially for left-turn collisions when a driver attempts to make a left-turn at either a signalized or non-signalized intersection, conflicting with the path of other approaching vehicles traveling on the opposite-direction traffic stream. One of the major factors that lead to left-turn collisions is the human error and misjudgment of the driver of the turning vehicle when perceiving the speed and acceleration of other vehicles traveling on the opposite-direction traffic stream; therefore, using a properly-designed collision warning system will likely reduce, or even eliminate, this type of collisions by reducing human error. This paper introduces perceptual framework for a proposed collision warning system that can detect imminent left-turn collisions at intersections. The system utilizes a commercially-available detection sensor (either a radar sensor or a laser detector) to detect approaching vehicles traveling on the opposite-direction traffic stream and calculate their speeds and acceleration rates to estimate the time-tocollision and compare that time to the time required for the turning vehicle to clear the intersection. When calculating the time required for the turning vehicle to clear the intersection, consideration is given to the perception-reaction time of the driver of the turning vehicle, which is the time required by the driver to perceive the message given by the warning system and react to it by engaging the throttle. A regression model was developed to estimate perception-reaction time based on age and gender of the driver of the host vehicle. Desired acceleration rate selected by the driver of the turning vehicle, when making the left-turn movement, is another human factor that is considered by the system. Another regression model was developed to estimate the acceleration rate selected by the driver of the turning vehicle based on driver-s age and gender as well as on the location and speed of the nearest approaching vehicle along with the maximum acceleration rate provided by the mechanical characteristics of the turning vehicle. By comparing time-to-collision with the time required for the turning vehicle to clear the intersection, the system displays a message to the driver of the turning vehicle when departure is safe. An application example is provided to illustrate the logic algorithm of the proposed system.

Keywords: Collision warning systems, intelligent transportationsystems, vehicle safety.

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Authors: Suraiya Jabin, Kamal K. Bharadwaj

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In the recent past Learning Classifier Systems have been successfully used for data mining. Learning Classifier System (LCS) is basically a machine learning technique which combines evolutionary computing, reinforcement learning, supervised or unsupervised learning and heuristics to produce adaptive systems. A LCS learns by interacting with an environment from which it receives feedback in the form of numerical reward. Learning is achieved by trying to maximize the amount of reward received. All LCSs models more or less, comprise four main components; a finite population of condition–action rules, called classifiers; the performance component, which governs the interaction with the environment; the credit assignment component, which distributes the reward received from the environment to the classifiers accountable for the rewards obtained; the discovery component, which is responsible for discovering better rules and improving existing ones through a genetic algorithm. The concatenate of the production rules in the LCS form the genotype, and therefore the GA should operate on a population of classifier systems. This approach is known as the 'Pittsburgh' Classifier Systems. Other LCS that perform their GA at the rule level within a population are known as 'Mitchigan' Classifier Systems. The most predominant representation of the discovered knowledge is the standard production rules (PRs) in the form of IF P THEN D. The PRs, however, are unable to handle exceptions and do not exhibit variable precision. The Censored Production Rules (CPRs), an extension of PRs, were proposed by Michalski and Winston that exhibit variable precision and supports an efficient mechanism for handling exceptions. A CPR is an augmented production rule of the form: IF P THEN D UNLESS C, where Censor C is an exception to the rule. Such rules are employed in situations, in which conditional statement IF P THEN D holds frequently and the assertion C holds rarely. By using a rule of this type we are free to ignore the exception conditions, when the resources needed to establish its presence are tight or there is simply no information available as to whether it holds or not. Thus, the IF P THEN D part of CPR expresses important information, while the UNLESS C part acts only as a switch and changes the polarity of D to ~D. In this paper Pittsburgh style LCSs approach is used for automated discovery of CPRs. An appropriate encoding scheme is suggested to represent a chromosome consisting of fixed size set of CPRs. Suitable genetic operators are designed for the set of CPRs and individual CPRs and also appropriate fitness function is proposed that incorporates basic constraints on CPR. Experimental results are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed learning classifier system.

Keywords: Censored Production Rule, Data Mining, GeneticAlgorithm, Learning Classifier System, Machine Learning, PittsburgApproach, , Reinforcement learning.

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Authors: Carolina B. Baguio

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One of the purposes of the robust method of estimation is to reduce the influence of outliers in the data, on the estimates. The outliers arise from gross errors or contamination from distributions with long tails. The trimmed mean is a robust estimate. This means that it is not sensitive to violation of distributional assumptions of the data. It is called an adaptive estimate when the trimming proportion is determined from the data rather than being fixed a “priori-. The main objective of this study is to find out the robustness properties of the adaptive trimmed means in terms of efficiency, high breakdown point and influence function. Specifically, it seeks to find out the magnitude of the trimming proportion of the adaptive trimmed mean which will yield efficient and robust estimates of the parameter for data which follow a modified Weibull distribution with parameter λ = 1/2 , where the trimming proportion is determined by a ratio of two trimmed means defined as the tail length. Secondly, the asymptotic properties of the tail length and the trimmed means are also investigated. Finally, a comparison is made on the efficiency of the adaptive trimmed means in terms of the standard deviation for the trimming proportions and when these were fixed a “priori". The asymptotic tail lengths defined as the ratio of two trimmed means and the asymptotic variances were computed by using the formulas derived. While the values of the standard deviations for the derived tail lengths for data of size 40 simulated from a Weibull distribution were computed for 100 iterations using a computer program written in Pascal language. The findings of the study revealed that the tail lengths of the Weibull distribution increase in magnitudes as the trimming proportions increase, the measure of the tail length and the adaptive trimmed mean are asymptotically independent as the number of observations n becomes very large or approaching infinity, the tail length is asymptotically distributed as the ratio of two independent normal random variables, and the asymptotic variances decrease as the trimming proportions increase. The simulation study revealed empirically that the standard error of the adaptive trimmed mean using the ratio of tail lengths is relatively smaller for different values of trimming proportions than its counterpart when the trimming proportions were fixed a 'priori'.

Keywords: Adaptive robust estimate, asymptotic efficiency, breakdown point, influence function, L-estimates, location parameter, tail length, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety critical incident to raise awareness of biases in systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the Methodology used to model and analyse the safety-critical incident. The SIRI Methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique. The benefits of the SIRI Methodology are threefold: first is that it incorporates “Heuristics and Biases” approach, in the Management Oversight and Risk Tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling technique. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organisational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signalling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner’s and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 Systems Engineering standard, and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and Artificial Intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: Accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach.

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Authors: A. Lauvray, F. Poulhaon, P. Michaud, P. Joyot, E. Duc

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Additive Friction Stir Manufacturing, or AFSM, is a new industrial process that follows the emergence of friction-based processes. The AFSM process is a solid-state additive process using the energy produced by the friction at the interface between a rotating non-consumable tool and a substrate. Friction depends on various parameters like axial force, rotation speed or friction coefficient. The feeder material is a metallic rod that flows through a hole in the tool. There is still a lack in understanding of the physical phenomena taking place during the process. This research aims at a better AFSM process understanding and implementation, thanks to numerical simulation and experimental validation performed on a prototype effector. Such an approach is considered a promising way for studying the influence of the process parameters and to finally identify a process window that seems relevant. The deposition of material through the AFSM process takes place in several phases. In chronological order these phases are the docking phase, the dwell time phase, the deposition phase, and the removal phase. The present work focuses on the dwell time phase that enables the temperature rise of the system due to pure friction. An analytic modeling of heat generation based on friction considers as main parameters the rotational speed and the contact pressure. Another parameter considered influential is the friction coefficient assumed to be variable, due to the self-lubrication of the system with the rise in temperature or the materials in contact roughness smoothing over time. This study proposes through a numerical modeling followed by an experimental validation to question the influence of the various input parameters on the dwell time phase. Rotation speed, temperature, spindle torque and axial force are the main monitored parameters during experimentations and serve as reference data for the calibration of the numerical model. This research shows that the geometry of the tool as well as fluctuations of the input parameters like axial force and rotational speed are very influential on the temperature reached and/or the time required to reach the targeted temperature. The main outcome is the prediction of a process window which is a key result for a more efficient process implementation.

Keywords: numerical model, additive manufacturing, frictional heat generation, process

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