Search results for: warning
52 A Preliminary Study on the Suitability of Data Driven Approach for Continuous Water Level Modeling
Authors: Muhammad Aqil, Ichiro Kita, Moses Macalinao
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Reliable water level forecasts are particularly important for warning against dangerous flood and inundation. The current study aims at investigating the suitability of the adaptive network based fuzzy inference system for continuous water level modeling. A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least square method and the back propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. For this study, water levels data are available for a hydrological year of 2002 with a sampling interval of 1-hour. The number of antecedent water level that should be included in the input variables is determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function between the variables. Forecasting was done for 1-hour until 12-hour ahead in order to compare the models generalization at higher horizons. The results demonstrate that the adaptive networkbased fuzzy inference system model can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for river water level estimation. In general, the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system provides accurate and reliable water level prediction for 1-hour ahead where the MAPE=1.15% and correlation=0.98 was achieved. Up to 12-hour ahead prediction, the model still shows relatively good performance where the error of prediction resulted was less than 9.65%. The information gathered from the preliminary results provide a useful guidance or reference for flood early warning system design in which the magnitude and the timing of a potential extreme flood are indicated.Keywords: Neural Network, Fuzzy, River, Forecasting
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 127951 Security in Crosswalks
Authors: A. Gutiérrez, A. Castillo, J.M. Gómez, J.M. Gutiérrez, A. García-Cabot
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Lighting is not only important for the safety of traffic, but also it is very important for the protection of pedestrians. Improvement on visibility in a long distance, lighting, signing, reduces considerably the risk of accidents in crosswalks. This paper evaluates different aspects of crosswalks including signing and lighting to improve road safety.Keywords: In pavement flashing warning lights, street lighting, signing, visibility.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 176450 Monitoring the Fiscal Health of Taiwan’s Local Government: Application of the 10-Point Scale of Fiscal Distress
Authors: Yuan-Hong Ho, Chiung-Ju Huang
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This article presents a monitoring indicators system that predicts whether a local government in Taiwan is heading for fiscal distress and identifies a suitable fiscal policy that would allow the local government to achieve fiscal balance in the long run. This system is relevant to stockholders’ interest, simple for national audit bodies to use, and provides an early warning of fiscal distress that allows preventative action to be taken.
Keywords: Fiscal distress, fiscal health, monitoring signals, 10-point scale.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 180149 ICT for Social Networking in Flood Risk and Knowledge Management Strategies- An MCDA Approach
Authors: Avelino Mondlane, Karin Hansson, Oliver Popov, Xavier Muianga
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This paper discusses the role and importance of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and social Networking (SN) in the process of decision making for Flood Risk and Knowledge Management Strategies. We use Mozambique Red Cross (CVM) as the case study and further more we address scenarios for flood risk management strategies, using earlier warning and social networking and we argue that a sustainable desirable stage of life can be achieved by developing scenario strategic planning based on backcasting.
Keywords: ICT, KM, scenario planning, backcasting and flood risk management.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 291648 Performance Comparison of a Low Cost Air Quality Sensor with a Commercial Electronic Nose
Authors: Ünal Kızıl, Levent Genç, Sefa Aksu, Ahmet Tapınç
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The Figaro AM-1 sensor module which employs TGS 2600 model gas sensor in air quality assessment was used. The system was coupled with a microprocessor that enables sensor module to create warning message via telephone. This low cot sensor system’s performance was compared with a DiagNose II commercial electronic nose system. Both air quality sensor and electronic nose system employ metal oxide chemical gas sensors. In the study experimental setup, data acquisition methods for electronic nose system, and performance of the low cost air quality system were evaluated and explained.Keywords: Air quality, electronic nose, environmental quality, gas sensor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 237647 Bearing Fault Feature Extraction by Recurrence Quantification Analysis
Authors: V. G. Rajesh, M. V. Rajesh
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In rotating machinery one of the critical components that is prone to premature failure is the rolling bearing. Consequently, early warning of an imminent bearing failure is much critical to the safety and reliability of any high speed rotating machines. This study is concerned with the application of Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) in fault detection of rolling element bearings in rotating machinery. Based on the results from this study it is reported that the RQA variable, percent determinism, is sensitive to the type of fault investigated and therefore can provide useful information on bearing damage in rolling element bearings.Keywords: Bearing fault detection, machine vibrations, nonlinear time series analysis, recurrence quantification analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 183946 HelpMeBreathe: A Web-Based System for Asthma Management
Authors: Alia Al Rayssi, Mahra Al Marar, Alyazia Alkhaili, Reem Al Dhaheri, Shayma Alkobaisi, Hoda Amer
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We present in this paper a web-based system called “HelpMeBreathe” for managing asthma. The proposed system provides analytical tools, which allow better understanding of environmental triggers of asthma, hence better support of data-driven decision making. The developed system provides warning messages to a specific asthma patient if the weather in his/her area might cause any difficulty in breathing or could trigger an asthma attack. HelpMeBreathe collects, stores, and analyzes individuals’ moving trajectories and health conditions as well as environmental data. It then processes and displays the patients’ data through an analytical tool that leads to an effective decision making by physicians and other decision makers.
Keywords: Asthma, environmental triggers, map interface, peak flow, web-based system.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 85945 Unnoticeable Mumps Infection in India: Does MMR Vaccine Protect against Circulating Mumps Virus Genotype C?
Authors: Jeevan Malayan, Aparna Warrier, Padmasani Venkat Ramanan, Sanjeeva Reddy N, Elanchezhiyan Manickan
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MMR vaccine failure had been reported globally and here we report that it occurs now in India. Samples were collected from clinically suspected mumps cases were subjected for anti mumps antibodies, virus isolation, RT-PCR, sequencing and phylogenetic tree analysis. 56 samples collected from men and women belonging to various age groups. 30 had been vaccinated and the status of 26 patients was unknown. 28 out of 30 samples were found to be symptomatic and positive for Mumps IgM, indicating active mumps infection in 93.4% of the vaccinated population. A phylogenetic tree comparison of the clinical isolate is shown to be genotype C which is distinct from vaccine strain. Our study clearly sending warning signs that MMR vaccine is a failure and it needs to be revamped for the human use by increasing its efficacy and efficiency.Keywords: Genotype C, Mumps virus, MMR vaccine, Sero types.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 244444 Warning about the Risk of Blood Flow Stagnation after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation
Authors: Aymen Laadhari, Gábor Székely
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In this work, the hemodynamics in the sinuses of Valsalva after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation is numerically examined. We focus on the physical results in the two-dimensional case. We use a finite element methodology based on a Lagrange multiplier technique that enables to couple the dynamics of blood flow and the leaflets’ movement. A massively parallel implementation of a monolithic and fully implicit solver allows more accuracy and significant computational savings. The elastic properties of the aortic valve are disregarded, and the numerical computations are performed under physiologically correct pressure loads. Computational results depict that blood flow may be subject to stagnation in the lower domain of the sinuses of Valsalva after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.
Keywords: Hemodynamics, Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation, blood flow stagnation, numerical simulations.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 108043 Experimental Investigation on the Effect of Bond Thickness on the Interface Behaviour of Fibre Reinforced Polymer Sheet Bonded to Timber
Authors: Abbas Vahedian, Rijun Shrestha, Keith Crews
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The bond mechanism between timber and fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) is relatively complex and is influenced by a number of variables including bond thickness, bond width, bond length, material properties, and geometries. This study investigates the influence of bond thickness on the behaviour of interface, failure mode, and bond strength of externally bonded FRP-to-timber interface. In the present study, 106 single shear joint specimens have been investigated. Experiment results showed that higher layers of FRP increase the ultimate load carrying capacity of interface; conversely, such increase led to decrease the slip of interface. Moreover, samples with more layers of FRPs may fail in a brittle manner without noticeable warning that collapse is imminent.Keywords: FRP, single shear test, bond thickness, bond strength.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 74342 Defect-Based Urgency Index for Bridge Maintenance Ranking and Prioritization
Authors: Saleh Abu Dabous, Khaled Hamad, Rami Al-Ruzouq
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Bridge condition assessment and rating provide essential information needed for bridge management. This paper reviews bridge inspection and condition rating practices and introduces a defect-based urgency index. The index is estimated at the element-level based on the extent and severity of the different defects typical to the bridge element. The urgency index approach has the following advantages: (1) It facilitates judgment submission, i.e. instead of rating the bridge element with a specific linguistic overall expression (which can be subjective and used differently by different people), the approach is based on assessing the defects; (2) It captures multiple defects that can be present within a deteriorated element; and (3) It reflects how critical the element is through quantifying critical defects and their severity. The approach can be further developed and validated. It is expected to be useful for practical purposes as an early-warning system for critical bridge elements.
Keywords: Condition rating, deterioration, inspection, maintenance.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 187841 A Data Mining Model for Detecting Financial and Operational Risk Indicators of SMEs
Authors: Ali Serhan Koyuncugil, Nermin Ozgulbas
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In this paper, a data mining model to SMEs for detecting financial and operational risk indicators by data mining is presenting. The identification of the risk factors by clarifying the relationship between the variables defines the discovery of knowledge from the financial and operational variables. Automatic and estimation oriented information discovery process coincides the definition of data mining. During the formation of model; an easy to understand, easy to interpret and easy to apply utilitarian model that is far from the requirement of theoretical background is targeted by the discovery of the implicit relationships between the data and the identification of effect level of every factor. In addition, this paper is based on a project which was funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK).
Keywords: Risk Management, Financial Risk, Operational Risk, Financial Early Warning System, Data Mining, CHAID Decision Tree Algorithm, SMEs.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 311240 Fast and Robust Long-term Tracking with Effective Searching Model
Authors: Thang V. Kieu, Long P. Nguyen
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Kernelized Correlation Filter (KCF) based trackers have gained a lot of attention recently because of their accuracy and fast calculation speed. However, this algorithm is not robust in cases where the object is lost by a sudden change of direction, being obscured or going out of view. In order to improve KCF performance in long-term tracking, this paper proposes an anomaly detection method for target loss warning by analyzing the response map of each frame, and a classification algorithm for reliable target re-locating mechanism by using Random fern. Being tested with Visual Tracker Benchmark and Visual Object Tracking datasets, the experimental results indicated that the precision and success rate of the proposed algorithm were 2.92 and 2.61 times higher than that of the original KCF algorithm, respectively. Moreover, the proposed tracker handles occlusion better than many state-of-the-art long-term tracking methods while running at 60 frames per second.
Keywords: Correlation filter, long-term tracking, random fern, real-time tracking.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 75939 Bluetooth Piconet System for Child Care Applications
Authors: Ching-Sung Wang, Teng-Wei Wang, Zhen-Ting Zheng
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This study mainly concerns a safety device designed for child care. When children are out of sight or the caregivers cannot always pay attention to the situation, through the functions of this device, caregivers can immediately be informed to make sure that the children do not get lost or hurt, and thus, ensure their safety. Starting from this concept, a device is produced based on the relatively low-cost Bluetooth piconet system and a three-axis gyroscope sensor. This device can transmit data to a mobile phone app through Bluetooth, in order that the user can learn the situation at any time. By simply clipping the device in a pocket or on the waist, after switching on/starting the device, it will send data to the phone to detect the child’s fall and distance. Once the child is beyond the angle or distance set by the app, it will issue a warning to inform the phone owner.
Keywords: Children care, piconet system, three-axis gyroscope, distance detection, falls detection.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 90238 Seismic Alert System based on Artificial Neural Networks
Authors: C. M. A. Robles G., R. A. Hernandez-Becerril
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We board the problem of creating a seismic alert system, based upon artificial neural networks, trained by using the well-known back-propagation and genetic algorithms, in order to emit the alarm for the population located into a specific city, about an eminent earthquake greater than 4.5 Richter degrees, and avoiding disasters and human loses. In lieu of using the propagation wave, we employed the magnitude of the earthquake, to establish a correlation between the recorded magnitudes from a controlled area and the city, where we want to emit the alarm. To measure the accuracy of the posed method, we use a database provided by CIRES, which contains the records of 2500 quakes incoming from the State of Guerrero and Mexico City. Particularly, we performed the proposed method to generate an issue warning in Mexico City, employing the magnitudes recorded in the State of Guerrero.Keywords: Seismic Alert System, Artificial Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 171337 Optical Road Monitoring of the Future Smart Roads – Preliminary Results
Authors: Maria Jokela, Matti Kutila, Jukka Laitinen, Florian Ahlers, Nicolas Hautière, TobiasSchendzielorz
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It has been shown that in most accidents the driver is responsible due to being distracted or misjudging the situation. In order to solve such problems research has been dedicated to developing driver assistance systems that are able to monitor the traffic situation around the vehicle. This paper presents methods for recognizing several circumstances on a road. The methods use both the in-vehicle warning systems and the roadside infrastructure. Preliminary evaluation results for fog and ice-on-road detection are presented. The ice detection results are based on data recorded in a test track dedicated to tyre friction testing. The achieved results anticipate that ice detection could work at a performance of 70% detection with the right setup, which is a good foundation for implementation. However, the full benefit of the presented cooperative system is achieved by fusing the outputs of multiple data sources, which is the key point of discussion behind this publication.
Keywords: Smart roads, traffic monitoring, traffic scenedetection.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 161736 Assessment of Landslide Volume for Alishan Highway Based On Database of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure
Authors: Yun-Yao Chi, Ya-Fen Lee
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In this paper, a study of slope failures along the Alishan Highway is carried out. An innovative empirical model is developed based on 15-year records of rainfall-induced slope failures. The statistical models are intended for assessing the volume of landslide for slope failure along the Alishan Highway in the future. The rainfall data considered in the proposed models include the effective cumulative rainfall and the critical rainfall intensity. The effective cumulative rainfall is defined at the point when the curve of cumulative rainfall goes from steep to flat. Then, the rainfall thresholds of landslide are established for assessing the volume of landslide and issuing warning and/or closure for the Alishan Highway during a future extreme rainfall. Slope failures during Typhoon Saola in 2012 demonstrate that the new empirical model is effective and applicable to other cases with similar rainfall conditions.
Keywords: Slope failure, landslide, volume, model, rainfall thresholds.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 176235 A Background Subtraction Based Moving Object Detection around the Host Vehicle
Authors: Hyojin Lim, Cuong Nguyen Khac, Ho-Youl Jung
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In this paper, we propose moving object detection method which is helpful for driver to safely take his/her car out of parking lot. When moving objects such as motorbikes, pedestrians, the other cars and some obstacles are detected at the rear-side of host vehicle, the proposed algorithm can provide to driver warning. We assume that the host vehicle is just before departure. Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) based background subtraction is basically applied. Pre-processing such as smoothing and post-processing as morphological filtering are added. We examine “which color space has better performance for detection of moving objects?” Three color spaces including RGB, YCbCr, and Y are applied and compared, in terms of detection rate. Through simulation, we prove that RGB space is more suitable for moving object detection based on background subtraction.Keywords: Gaussian mixture model, background subtraction, Moving object detection, color space, morphological filtering.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 254734 Quantitative Indicator of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Rupture Risk Based on its Geometric Parameters
Authors: Guillermo Vilalta, Félix Nieto, Carlos Vaquero, José A. Vilalta
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Abdominal aortic aneurysms rupture (AAAs) is one of the main causes of death in the world. This is a very complex phenomenon that usually occurs “without previous warning". Currently, criteria to assess the aneurysm rupture risk (peak diameter and growth rate) can not be considered as reliable indicators. In a first approach, the main geometric parameters of aneurysms have been linked into five biomechanical factors. These are combined to obtain a dimensionless rupture risk index, RI(t), which has been validated preliminarily with a clinical case and others from literature. This quantitative indicator is easy to understand, it allows estimating the aneurysms rupture risks and it is expected to be able to identify the one in aneurysm whose peak diameter is less than the threshold value. Based on initial results, a broader study has begun with twelve patients from the Clinic Hospital of Valladolid-Spain, which are submitted to periodic follow-up examinations.
Keywords: AAA, rupture risk prediction, biomechanical factors, AAA geometric characterization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 152133 Design of Real Time Early Response Systems for Natural Disaster Management Based On Automation and Control Technologies
Authors: C. Pacheco, A. Cipriano
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A new concept of response system is proposed for filling the gap that exists in reducing vulnerability during immediate response to natural disasters. Real Time Early Response Systems (RTERSs) incorporate real time information as feedback data for closing control loop and for generating real time situation assessment. A review of the state of the art on works that fit the concept of RTERS is presented, and it is found that they are mainly focused on manmade disasters. At the same time, in response phase of natural disaster management many works are involved in creating early warning systems, but just few efforts have been put on deciding what to do once an alarm is activated. In this context a RTERS arises as a useful tool for supporting people in their decision making process during natural disasters after an event is detected, and also as an innovative context for applying well-known automation technologies and automatic control concepts and tools.
Keywords: Disaster management, emergency response system, natural disasters, real time.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 357132 A Hybrid Scheme for on-Line Diagnostic Decision Making Using Optimal Data Representation and Filtering Technique
Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho
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The early diagnostic decision making in industrial processes is absolutely necessary to produce high quality final products. It helps to provide early warning for a special event in a process, and finding its assignable cause can be obtained. This work presents a hybrid diagnostic schmes for batch processes. Nonlinear representation of raw process data is combined with classification tree techniques. The nonlinear kernel-based dimension reduction is executed for nonlinear classification decision boundaries for fault classes. In order to enhance diagnosis performance for batch processes, filtering of the data is performed to get rid of the irrelevant information of the process data. For the diagnosis performance of several representation, filtering, and future observation estimation methods, four diagnostic schemes are evaluated. In this work, the performance of the presented diagnosis schemes is demonstrated using batch process data.
Keywords: Diagnostics, batch process, nonlinear representation, data filtering, multivariate statistical approach
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 130831 Earthquake Classification in Molluca Collision Zone Using Conventional Statistical Methods
Authors: H. J. Wattimanela, U. S. Passaribu, N. T. Puspito, S. W. Indratno
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Molluca Collision Zone is located at the junction of the Eurasian, Australian, Pacific and the Philippines plates. Between the Sangihe arc, west of the collision zone, and to the east of Halmahera arc is active collision and convex toward the Molluca Sea. This research will analyze the behavior of earthquake occurrence in Molluca Collision Zone related to the distributions of an earthquake in each partition regions, determining the type of distribution of a occurrence earthquake of partition regions, and the mean occurence of earthquakes each partition regions, and the correlation between the partitions region. We calculate number of earthquakes using partition method and its behavioral using conventional statistical methods. In this research, we used data of shallow earthquakes type and its magnitudes ≥4 SR (period 1964-2013). From the results, we can classify partitioned regions based on the correlation into two classes: strong and very strong. This classification can be used for early warning system in disaster management.
Keywords: Molluca Collision Zone, partition regions, conventional statistical methods, Earthquakes, classifications, disaster management.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 196930 Optimal Maintenance Policy for a Partially Observable Two-Unit System
Authors: Leila Jafari, Viliam Makis, Akram Khaleghei G.B.
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In this paper, we present a maintenance model of a two-unit series system with economic dependence. Unit#1 which is considered to be more expensive and more important, is subject to condition monitoring (CM) at equidistant, discrete time epochs and unit#2, which is not subject to CM has a general lifetime distribution. The multivariate observation vectors obtained through condition monitoring carry partial information about the hidden state of unit#1, which can be in a healthy or a warning state while operating. Only the failure state is assumed to be observable for both units. The objective is to find an optimal opportunistic maintenance policy minimizing the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the partially observable semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm for finding the optimal policy and the minimum average cost is developed, illustrated by a numerical example.
Keywords: Condition-Based Maintenance, Semi-Markov Decision Process, Multivariate Bayesian Control Chart, Partially Observable System, Two-unit System.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 228329 Comparative Study of Line Voltage Stability Indices for Voltage Collapse Forecasting in Power Transmission System
Authors: H. H. Goh, Q. S. Chua, S. W. Lee, B. C. Kok, K. C. Goh, K. T. K. Teo
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At present, the evaluation of voltage stability assessment experiences sizeable anxiety in the safe operation of power systems. This is due to the complications of a strain power system. With the snowballing of power demand by the consumers and also the restricted amount of power sources, therefore, the system has to perform at its maximum proficiency. Consequently, the noteworthy to discover the maximum ability boundary prior to voltage collapse should be undertaken. A preliminary warning can be perceived to evade the interruption of power system’s capacity. The effectiveness of line voltage stability indices (LVSI) is differentiated in this paper. The main purpose of the indices used is to predict the proximity of voltage instability of the electric power system. On the other hand, the indices are also able to decide the weakest load buses which are close to voltage collapse in the power system. The line stability indices are assessed using the IEEE 14 bus test system to validate its practicability. Results demonstrated that the implemented indices are practically relevant in predicting the manifestation of voltage collapse in the system. Therefore, essential actions can be taken to dodge the incident from arising.
Keywords: Critical line, line outage, line voltage stability indices (LVSI), maximum loadability, voltage collapse, voltage instability, voltage stability analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 413328 A Study of Panel Logit Model and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Financial Distress Periods
Authors: Ε. Giovanis
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The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.Keywords: ANFIS, Binary logistic regression, Financialdistress, Panel data
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 233227 Implementation of the Outputs of Computer Simulation to Support Decision-Making Processes
Authors: Jiří Barta
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At the present time, awareness, education, computer simulation and information systems protection are very serious and relevant topics. The article deals with perspectives and possibilities of implementation of emergence or natural hazard threats into the system which is developed for communication among members of crisis management staffs. The Czech Hydro-Meteorological Institute with its System of Integrated Warning Service resents the largest usable base of information. National information systems are connected to foreign systems, especially to flooding emergency systems of neighboring countries, systems of European Union and international organizations where the Czech Republic is a member. Use of outputs of particular information systems and computer simulations on a single communication interface of information system for communication among members of crisis management staff and setting the site interoperability in the net will lead to time savings in decision-making processes in solving extraordinary events and crisis situations. Faster managing of an extraordinary event or a crisis situation will bring positive effects and minimize the impact of negative effects on the environment.Keywords: Computer simulation, communication, continuity, critical infrastructure, information systems, safety.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 170426 Validation of Visibility Data from Road Weather Information Systems by Comparing Three Data Resources: Case Study in Ohio
Authors: Fan Ye
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Adverse weather conditions, particularly those with low visibility, are critical to the driving tasks. However, the direct relationship between visibility distances and traffic flow/roadway safety is uncertain due to the limitation of visibility data availability. The recent growth of deployment of Road Weather Information Systems (RWIS) makes segment-specific visibility information available which can be integrated with other Intelligent Transportation System, such as automated warning system and variable speed limit, to improve mobility and safety. Before applying the RWIS visibility measurements in traffic study and operations, it is critical to validate the data. Therefore, an attempt was made in the paper to examine the validity and viability of RWIS visibility data by comparing visibility measurements among RWIS, airport weather stations, and weather information recorded by police in crash reports, based on Ohio data. The results indicated that RWIS visibility measurements were significantly different from airport visibility data in Ohio, but no conclusion regarding the reliability of RWIS visibility could be drawn in the consideration of no verified ground truth in the comparisons. It was suggested that more objective methods are needed to validate the RWIS visibility measurements, such as continuous in-field measurements associated with various weather events using calibrated visibility sensors.
Keywords: Low visibility, RWIS, traffic safety, visibility.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 132325 Research on the Strategy of Orbital Avoidance for Optical Remote Sensing Satellite
Authors: Zheng Dian Xun, Cheng Bo, Lin Hetong
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This paper focuses on the orbit avoidance strategy of the optical remote sensing satellite. The optical remote sensing satellite, moving along the Sun-synchronous orbit, is equipped with laser warning equipment to alert CCD camera from laser attacks. This paper explores the strategy of satellite avoidance to protect the CCD camera and also the satellite. The satellite could evasive to several target points in the orbital coordinates of virtual satellite. The so-called virtual satellite is a passive vehicle which superposes the satellite at the initial stage of avoidance. The target points share the consistent cycle time and the same semi-major axis with the virtual satellite, which ensures the properties of the satellite’s Sun-synchronous orbit remain unchanged. Moreover, to further strengthen the avoidance capability of satellite, it can perform multi-target-points avoid maneuvers. On occasions of fulfilling the satellite orbit tasks, the orbit can be restored back to virtual satellite through orbit maneuvers. There into, the avoid maneuvers adopts pulse guidance. In addition, the fuel consumption is optimized. The avoidance strategy discussed in this article is applicable to optical remote sensing satellite when it is encountered with hostile attack of space-based laser anti-satellite.Keywords: Optical remote sensing satellite, satellite avoidance, virtual satellite, avoid target-point, avoid maneuver.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 148724 Comprehensive Regional Drought Assessment Index
Authors: A. Zeynolabedin, M. A. Olyaei, B. Ghiasi
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Drought is an inevitable part of the earth’s climate. It occurs regularly with no clear warning and without recognizing borders. In addition, its impact is cumulative and not immediately discernible. Iran is located in a semi-arid region where droughts occur periodically as natural hazard. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are three well-known indices which describe drought severity; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. These indices take into account some factors such as precipitation, reservoir storage and discharge, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in determining drought severity. In this paper, first all three indices are calculated in Aharchay river watershed located in northwestern part of Iran in East Azarbaijan province. Next, based on two other important parameters which are groundwater level and solar radiation, two new indices are defined. Finally, considering all five aforementioned indices, a combined drought index (CDI) is presented and calculated for the region. This combined index is based on all the meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural features of the region. The results show that the most severe drought condition in Aharchay watershed happened in Jun, 2004. The result of this study can be used for monitoring drought and prepare for the drought mitigation planning.Keywords: Drought, index variation, regional assessment, monitoring.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 125123 A Smart Monitoring System for Preventing Gas Risks in Indoor
Authors: Gyoutae Park, Geunjun Lyu, Yeonjae Lee, Wooksuk Kim, Jaheon Gu, Sanguk Ahn, Hiesik Kim
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In this paper, we propose a system for preventing gas risks through the use of wireless communication modules and intelligent gas safety appliances. Our system configuration consists of an automatic extinguishing system, detectors, a wall-pad, and a microcomputer controlled micom gas meter to monitor gas flow and pressure as well as the occurrence of earthquakes. The automatic fire extinguishing system checks for both combustible gaseous leaks and monitors the environmental temperature, while the detector array measures smoke and CO gas concentrations. Depending on detected conditions, the micom gas meter cuts off an inner valve and generates a warning, the automatic fire-extinguishing system cuts off an external valve and sprays extinguishing materials, or the sensors generate signals and take further action when smoke or CO are detected. Information on intelligent measures taken by the gas safety appliances and sensors are transmitted to the wall-pad, which in turn relays this as real time data to a server that can be monitored via an external network (BcN) connection to a web or mobile application for the management of gas safety. To validate this smart-home gas management system, we field-tested its suitability for use in Korean apartments under several scenarios.Keywords: Gas sensor, leak, gas safety, gas meter, gas risk, wireless communication.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2707