Search results for: Selection of risk measures
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2732

Search results for: Selection of risk measures

2252 Research on Rail Safety Security System

Authors: Cai Guoqiang, Jia Limin, Zhou Liming, Liang yu, Li xi

Abstract:

This paper analysis the integrated use of safety monitoring with the domestic and international latest research on rail safety protection system, and focus on the implementation of an organic whole system, with the monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, predictive control and emergency rescue system. The system framework, contents and system structure of Security system is proposed completely. It-s pointed out that the Security system is a negative feedback system composed of by safety monitoring and warning system, risk assessment and emergency rescue system. Safety monitoring and warning system focus on the monitoring target monitoring, early warning, tracking, integration of decision-making, for objective and subjective risks factors. Risk assessment system analysis the occurrence of a major Security risk mechanism, determines the standard of the future short, medium and long term safety conditions, and give prop for development of safety indicators, accident analysis and safety standards. Emergency rescue system is with the goal of rapid and effective rescue work for accident, to minimize casualties and property losses.

Keywords: rail safety protection, monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, emergency rescue.

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2251 Application of Data Mining Techniques for Tourism Knowledge Discovery

Authors: Teklu Urgessa, Wookjae Maeng, Joong Seek Lee

Abstract:

Application of five implementations of three data mining classification techniques was experimented for extracting important insights from tourism data. The aim was to find out the best performing algorithm among the compared ones for tourism knowledge discovery. Knowledge discovery process from data was used as a process model. 10-fold cross validation method is used for testing purpose. Various data preprocessing activities were performed to get the final dataset for model building. Classification models of the selected algorithms were built with different scenarios on the preprocessed dataset. The outperformed algorithm tourism dataset was Random Forest (76%) before applying information gain based attribute selection and J48 (C4.5) (75%) after selection of top relevant attributes to the class (target) attribute. In terms of time for model building, attribute selection improves the efficiency of all algorithms. Artificial Neural Network (multilayer perceptron) showed the highest improvement (90%). The rules extracted from the decision tree model are presented, which showed intricate, non-trivial knowledge/insight that would otherwise not be discovered by simple statistical analysis with mediocre accuracy of the machine using classification algorithms.

Keywords: Classification algorithms; data mining; tourism; knowledge discovery.

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2250 Music Aptitude and School Readiness in Indonesian Children

Authors: Diella Gracia Martauli

Abstract:

This study investigated the relationship between music aptitude and school readiness in Indonesian children. Music aptitude is described as children’s music potential, whereas school readiness is defined as a condition in which a child is deemed ready to enter the formal education system. This study presents a hypothesis that music aptitude is correlated with school readiness. This is a correlational research study of 17 children aged 5-6 years old (M = 6.10, SD = 0.33) who were enrolled in a kindergarten school in Jakarta, Indonesia. Music aptitude scores were obtained from Primary Measures of Music Audiation, whereas School readiness scores were obtained from Bracken School Readiness Assessment Third Edition. The analysis of the data was performed using Pearson Correlation. The result found no correlation between music aptitude and school readiness (r = 0.196, p = 0.452). Discussions regarding the results, perspective from the measures and cultures are presented. Further study is recommended to establish links between music aptitude and school readiness.

Keywords: Bracken school readiness assessment, music aptitude, primary measures of music audiation, school readiness.

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2249 A Spatial Hypergraph Based Semi-Supervised Band Selection Method for Hyperspectral Imagery Semantic Interpretation

Authors: Akrem Sellami, Imed Riadh Farah

Abstract:

Hyperspectral imagery (HSI) typically provides a wealth of information captured in a wide range of the electromagnetic spectrum for each pixel in the image. Hence, a pixel in HSI is a high-dimensional vector of intensities with a large spectral range and a high spectral resolution. Therefore, the semantic interpretation is a challenging task of HSI analysis. We focused in this paper on object classification as HSI semantic interpretation. However, HSI classification still faces some issues, among which are the following: The spatial variability of spectral signatures, the high number of spectral bands, and the high cost of true sample labeling. Therefore, the high number of spectral bands and the low number of training samples pose the problem of the curse of dimensionality. In order to resolve this problem, we propose to introduce the process of dimensionality reduction trying to improve the classification of HSI. The presented approach is a semi-supervised band selection method based on spatial hypergraph embedding model to represent higher order relationships with different weights of the spatial neighbors corresponding to the centroid of pixel. This semi-supervised band selection has been developed to select useful bands for object classification. The presented approach is evaluated on AVIRIS and ROSIS HSIs and compared to other dimensionality reduction methods. The experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of our approach compared to many existing dimensionality reduction methods for HSI classification.

Keywords: Hyperspectral image, spatial hypergraph, dimensionality reduction, semantic interpretation, band selection, feature extraction.

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2248 Fuzzy Population-Based Meta-Heuristic Approaches for Attribute Reduction in Rough Set Theory

Authors: Mafarja Majdi, Salwani Abdullah, Najmeh S. Jaddi

Abstract:

One of the global combinatorial optimization problems in machine learning is feature selection. It concerned with removing the irrelevant, noisy, and redundant data, along with keeping the original meaning of the original data. Attribute reduction in rough set theory is an important feature selection method. Since attribute reduction is an NP-hard problem, it is necessary to investigate fast and effective approximate algorithms. In this paper, we proposed two feature selection mechanisms based on memetic algorithms (MAs) which combine the genetic algorithm with a fuzzy record to record travel algorithm and a fuzzy controlled great deluge algorithm, to identify a good balance between local search and genetic search. In order to verify the proposed approaches, numerical experiments are carried out on thirteen datasets. The results show that the MAs approaches are efficient in solving attribute reduction problems when compared with other meta-heuristic approaches.

Keywords: Rough Set Theory, Attribute Reduction, Fuzzy Logic, Memetic Algorithms, Record to Record Algorithm, Great Deluge Algorithm.

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2247 Minimizing Risk Costs through Optimal Responses in NPD Projects

Authors: Chan-Sik Kim, Jong-Seong Kim, Se Won Lee, Hoo-Gon Choi

Abstract:

In rapidly changing market environment, firms are investing a lot of time and resources into new product development (NPD) projects to make profit and to obtain competitive advantage. However, failure rate of NPD projects is becoming high due to various internal and external risks which hinder successful NPD projects. To reduce the failure rate, it is critical that risks have to be managed effectively and efficiently through good strategy, and treated by optimal responses to minimize risk cost. Four strategies are adopted to handle the risks in this study. The optimal responses are characterized by high reduction of risk costs with high efficiency. This study suggests a framework to decide the optimal responses considering the core risks, risk costs, response efficiency and response costs for successful NPD projects. Both binary particles warm optimization (BPSO) and multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) methods are mainly used in the framework. Although several limitations exist in use for real industries, the frame work shows good strength for handling the risks with highly scientific ways through an example.

Keywords: NPD projects, risk cost, strategy, optimal responses, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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2246 Analysis of Different Combining Schemes of Two Amplify-Forward Relay Branches with Individual Links Experiencing Nakagami Fading

Authors: Babu Sena Paul, Ratnajit Bhattacharjee

Abstract:

Relay based communication has gained considerable importance in the recent years. In this paper we find the end-toend statistics of a two hop non-regenerative relay branch, each hop being Nakagami-m faded. Closed form expressions for the probability density functions of the signal envelope at the output of a selection combiner and a maximal ratio combiner at the destination node are also derived and analytical formulations are verified through computer simulation. These density functions are useful in evaluating the system performance in terms of bit error rate and outage probability.

Keywords: co-operative diversity, diversity combining, maximal ratio combining, selection combining.

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2245 Extracting Single Trial Visual Evoked Potentials using Selective Eigen-Rate Principal Components

Authors: Samraj Andrews, Ramaswamy Palaniappan, Nidal Kamel

Abstract:

In single trial analysis, when using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to extract Visual Evoked Potential (VEP) signals, the selection of principal components (PCs) is an important issue. We propose a new method here that selects only the appropriate PCs. We denote the method as selective eigen-rate (SER). In the method, the VEP is reconstructed based on the rate of the eigen-values of the PCs. When this technique is applied on emulated VEP signals added with background electroencephalogram (EEG), with a focus on extracting the evoked P3 parameter, it is found to be feasible. The improvement in signal to noise ratio (SNR) is superior to two other existing methods of PC selection: Kaiser (KSR) and Residual Power (RP). Though another PC selection method, Spectral Power Ratio (SPR) gives a comparable SNR with high noise factors (i.e. EEGs), SER give more impressive results in such cases. Next, we applied SER method to real VEP signals to analyse the P3 responses for matched and non-matched stimuli. The P3 parameters extracted through our proposed SER method showed higher P3 response for matched stimulus, which confirms to the existing neuroscience knowledge. Single trial PCA using KSR and RP methods failed to indicate any difference for the stimuli.

Keywords: Electroencephalogram, P3, Single trial VEP.

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2244 A Comparative Study of Additive and Nonparametric Regression Estimators and Variable Selection Procedures

Authors: Adriano Z. Zambom, Preethi Ravikumar

Abstract:

One of the biggest challenges in nonparametric regression is the curse of dimensionality. Additive models are known to overcome this problem by estimating only the individual additive effects of each covariate. However, if the model is misspecified, the accuracy of the estimator compared to the fully nonparametric one is unknown. In this work the efficiency of completely nonparametric regression estimators such as the Loess is compared to the estimators that assume additivity in several situations, including additive and non-additive regression scenarios. The comparison is done by computing the oracle mean square error of the estimators with regards to the true nonparametric regression function. Then, a backward elimination selection procedure based on the Akaike Information Criteria is proposed, which is computed from either the additive or the nonparametric model. Simulations show that if the additive model is misspecified, the percentage of time it fails to select important variables can be higher than that of the fully nonparametric approach. A dimension reduction step is included when nonparametric estimator cannot be computed due to the curse of dimensionality. Finally, the Boston housing dataset is analyzed using the proposed backward elimination procedure and the selected variables are identified.

Keywords: Additive models, local polynomial regression, residuals, mean square error, variable selection.

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2243 ANN-Based Classification of Indirect Immuno Fluorescence Images

Authors: P. Soda, G.Iannello

Abstract:

In this paper we address the issue of classifying the fluorescent intensity of a sample in Indirect Immuno-Fluorescence (IIF). Since IIF is a subjective, semi-quantitative test in its very nature, we discuss a strategy to reliably label the image data set by using the diagnoses performed by different physicians. Then, we discuss image pre-processing, feature extraction and selection. Finally, we propose two ANN-based classifiers that can separate intrinsically dubious samples and whose error tolerance can be flexibly set. Measured performance shows error rates less than 1%, which candidates the method to be used in daily medical practice either to perform pre-selection of cases to be examined, or to act as a second reader.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, computer aided diagnosis, image classification, indirect immuno-fluorescence, pattern recognition.

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2242 Porul: Option Generation and Selection and Scoring Algorithms for a Tamil Flash Card Game

Authors: Anitha Narasimhan, Aarthy Anandan, Madhan Karky, C. N. Subalalitha

Abstract:

Games can be the excellent tools for teaching a language. There are few e-learning games in Indian languages like word scrabble, cross word, quiz games etc., which were developed mainly for educational purposes. This paper proposes a Tamil word game called, “Porul”, which focuses on education as well as on players’ thinking and decision-making skills. Porul is a multiple choice based quiz game, in which the players attempt to answer questions correctly from the given multiple options that are generated using a unique algorithm called the Option Selection algorithm which explores the semantics of the question in various dimensions namely, synonym, rhyme and Universal Networking Language semantic category. This kind of semantic exploration of the question not only increases the complexity of the game but also makes it more interesting. The paper also proposes a Scoring Algorithm which allots a score based on the popularity score of the question word. The proposed game has been tested using 20,000 Tamil words.

Keywords: Porul game, Tamil word game, option selection, flash card, scoring, algorithm.

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2241 Using PFA in Feature Analysis and Selection for H.264 Adaptation

Authors: Nora A. Naguib, Ahmed E. Hussein, Hesham A. Keshk, Mohamed I. El-Adawy

Abstract:

Classification of video sequences based on their contents is a vital process for adaptation techniques. It helps decide which adaptation technique best fits the resource reduction requested by the client. In this paper we used the principal feature analysis algorithm to select a reduced subset of video features. The main idea is to select only one feature from each class based on the similarities between the features within that class. Our results showed that using this feature reduction technique the source video features can be completely omitted from future classification of video sequences.

Keywords: Adaptation, feature selection, H.264, Principal Feature Analysis (PFA)

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2240 Operational Risks for Highway Projects in Malaysia

Authors: Farid Ezanee Mohamed Ghazali

Abstract:

The Malaysia Highway Authority (MHA) was established by the Government in 1980 for the purpose of designing, constructing and maintaining toll highways in Malaysia that include the North-South Expressway and the Penang Bridge, which were procured using the publicly-funded traditional procurement. However following a recession in the mid 80-s, the operations of these tolledhighways had been privatized to ensure that their operational services continue through private financing as a result of long-term concession agreement concurred between the Malaysian Government and private operators. The change in the contract strategy for highway projects in Malaysia would have a great tendency to dictate a significant risk exposure towards the key parties involved, particularly the Malaysian Government as project principal, unless operational risks are clearly identified and managed via appropriate mitigation measures prior to a contract signing. This research identifies potential operational risks that have a possibility to occur in highway projects in Malaysia from the perspective of public sector clients. Since this research focuses on the operational risks for highway projects in Malaysia, the initial results acquired from literature review on the operational risks of highway projects in some Asian countries are then justified by a number of key individuals from the MHA through interviews. As a result, among key operational risks that have possibility to occur in the highway projects in Malaysia include initial toll-tariff decided by the Government, traffic congestion, change of road network and overloaded freight transportation, which could cause damage to the road surface and hence affecting the operation of a particular highway.

Keywords: Malaysia, operating highway project, operational risk.

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2239 A Framework for an Automated Decision Support System for Selecting Safety-Conscious Contractors

Authors: Rawan A. Abdelrazeq, Ahmed M. Khalafallah, Nabil A. Kartam

Abstract:

Selection of competent contractors for construction projects is usually accomplished through competitive bidding or negotiated contracting in which the contract bid price is the basic criterion for selection. The evaluation of contractor’s safety performance is still not a typical criterion in the selection process, despite the existence of various safety prequalification procedures. There is a critical need for practical and automated systems that enable owners and decision makers to evaluate contractor safety performance, among other important contractor selection criteria. These systems should ultimately favor safety-conscious contractors to be selected by the virtue of their past good safety records and current safety programs. This paper presents an exploratory sequential mixed-methods approach to develop a framework for an automated decision support system that evaluates contractor safety performance based on a multitude of indicators and metrics that have been identified through a comprehensive review of construction safety research, and a survey distributed to domain experts. The framework is developed in three phases: (1) determining the indicators that depict contractor current and past safety performance; (2) soliciting input from construction safety experts regarding the identified indicators, their metrics, and relative significance; and (3) designing a decision support system using relational database models to integrate the identified indicators and metrics into a system that assesses and rates the safety performance of contractors. The proposed automated system is expected to hold several advantages including: (1) reducing the likelihood of selecting contractors with poor safety records; (2) enhancing the odds of completing the project safely; and (3) encouraging contractors to exert more efforts to improve their safety performance and practices in order to increase their bid winning opportunities which can lead to significant safety improvements in the construction industry. This should prove useful to decision makers and researchers, alike, and should help improve the safety record of the construction industry.

Keywords: Construction safety, contractor selection, decision support system, relational database.

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2238 Parkinsons Disease Classification using Neural Network and Feature Selection

Authors: Anchana Khemphila, Veera Boonjing

Abstract:

In this study, the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)with Back-Propagation learning algorithm are used to classify to effective diagnosis Parkinsons disease(PD).It-s a challenging problem for medical community.Typically characterized by tremor, PD occurs due to the loss of dopamine in the brains thalamic region that results in involuntary or oscillatory movement in the body. A feature selection algorithm along with biomedical test values to diagnose Parkinson disease.Clinical diagnosis is done mostly by doctor-s expertise and experience.But still cases are reported of wrong diagnosis and treatment. Patients are asked to take number of tests for diagnosis.In many cases,not all the tests contribute towards effective diagnosis of a disease.Our work is to classify the presence of Parkinson disease with reduced number of attributes.Original,22 attributes are involved in classify.We use Information Gain to determine the attributes which reduced the number of attributes which is need to be taken from patients.The Artificial neural networks is used to classify the diagnosis of patients.Twenty-Two attributes are reduced to sixteen attributes.The accuracy is in training data set is 82.051% and in the validation data set is 83.333%.

Keywords: Data mining, classification, Parkinson disease, artificial neural networks, feature selection, information gain.

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2237 Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822) from Fish Mongers within Akure Metropolis, Ondo State, Nigeria

Authors: O. O. Olawusi-Peters, K. I. Adejugbagbe

Abstract:

The concentration of heavy metal (Cd, Pb, Fe, Zn, Cu) in Clarias gariepinus collected from fish markets; Fanibi (Station I) and Fiwasaye (Station II) in Akure metropolis, Ondo state, Nigeria were investigated to ascertain the safety for the consumers. 60 samples were collected from the two markets in three batches (I, II, III) for a period of six months and analyzed for heavy metals in the gills and muscles of the fish. Also, the Health Risk Index (HRI) was used to determine the health risk of these metals to the consumer. The results showed that the investigated metal concentration was higher in station I than station II, except Pb having higher concentration in station II than station I. In both stations, the highest concentration of Fe was recorded in the gills (12.60 ± 1.51; 6.94 ± 1.38) and muscles (3.72 ± 0.09; 3.86 ± 0.33) of samples in batch I. Also, the HRI revealed that consumption of Clarias gariepinus from these study areas did not pose any health risk (HRI < 1). In addition, concentrations of the heavy metals were all below the permissible limits recommended by FAO/WHO.

Keywords: Health risk index, heavy metals, Clarias gariepinus, Akure metropolis, fish monger.

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2236 Assessing Traffic Calming Measures for Safe and Accessible Emergency Routes in Norrkoping City in Sweden

Authors: Ghazwan Al-Haji

Abstract:

Most accidents occur in urban areas, and the most related casualties are vulnerable road users (pedestrians and cyclists). The traffic calming measures (TCMs) are widely used and considered to be successful in reducing speed and traffic volume. However, TCMs create unwanted effects include: noise, emissions, energy consumption, vehicle delays and emergency response time (ERT). Different vertical and horizontal TCMs have been already applied nationally (Sweden) and internationally with different impacts. It is a big challenge among traffic engineers, planners, and policy-makers to choose and priorities the best TCMs to be implemented. This study will assess the existing guidelines for TCMs in relation to safety and ERT with focus on data from Norrkoping city in Sweden. The expected results will save lives, time, and money on particularly Swedish Roads. The study will also review newly technologies and how they can improve safety and reduce ERT.

Keywords: Traffic safety, traffic calming measures, speeding, emergency response time.

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2235 Scientometrics Analysis of Food Supply Chain Risk Assessment Literature Based on Web of Science Record 1996-2014

Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Shadi Asadzandi, Micaela Demichela

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of a study to assess crucial aspects and the strength of the scientific basis of a typically interdisciplinary, applied field: food supply chain risk assessment research. Our approach is based on an advanced scientometrics analysis that is a quantitative study of the disciplines of science based on published literature to measure interdisciplinary. This paper aims to describe the quantity and quality of the publication trends in food supply chain risk assessment. The publication under study was composed of 266 articles from database web of science. The results were analyzed based on date of publication, type of document, language of the documents, source of publications, subject areas, authors and their affiliations, and the countries involved in developing the articles.

Keywords: Food Supply Chain, Risk Assessment, Scientometrics, Web of science.

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2234 Adaptive and Personalizing Learning Sequence Using Modified Roulette Wheel Selection Algorithm

Authors: Melvin A. Ballera

Abstract:

Prior literature in the field of adaptive and personalized learning sequence in e-learning have proposed and implemented various mechanisms to improve the learning process such as individualization and personalization, but complex to implement due to expensive algorithmic programming and need of extensive and prior data. The main objective of personalizing learning sequence is to maximize learning by dynamically selecting the closest teaching operation in order to achieve the learning competency of learner. In this paper, a revolutionary technique has been proposed and tested to perform individualization and personalization using modified reversed roulette wheel selection algorithm that runs at O(n). The technique is simpler to implement and is algorithmically less expensive compared to other revolutionary algorithms since it collects the dynamic real time performance matrix such as examinations, reviews, and study to form the RWSA single numerical fitness value. Results show that the implemented system is capable of recommending new learning sequences that lessens time of study based on student's prior knowledge and real performance matrix.

Keywords: E-learning, fitness value, personalized learning sequence, reversed roulette wheel selection algorithms.

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2233 A New Gateway for Rheumatoid Arthritis: COXIBs with an Improved Cardiovascular Profile

Authors: M. Hoxha, V. Capra, C. Buccellati, A. Sala, C. Cena, R. Fruttero, M. Bertinaria, G. E. Rovati

Abstract:

Today COXIBs are used in the treatment of arthritis and many other painful conditions in selected patients with high gastrointestinal risk and low cardiovascular (CV) risk. Previously, we have identified an unexpected mechanism of action of a traditional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) (diclofenac) and a specific inhibitor of cyclooxygenase-2 (COXIB) (lumiracoxib) demonstrating that they possess weak competitive antagonism at the thromboxane receptor (TP). We hypothesize that modifying the structure of a known COXIB so that it becomes also a more potent TP antagonist will preserve the anti-inflammatory and gastrointestinal safety typical of COXIBs and prevent the CV risk associated with long term therapy.

Keywords: Cyclooxygenase, inflammation, lumiracoxib, thromboxane A2.

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2232 Prioritization of Customer Order Selection Factors by Utilizing Conjoint Analysis: A Case Study for a Structural Steel Firm

Authors: Burcu Akyildiz, Cigdem Kadaifci, Y. Ilker Topcu, Burc Ulengin

Abstract:

In today’s business environment, companies should  make strategic decisions to gain sustainable competitive advantage.  Order selection is a crucial issue among these decisions especially for  steel production industry. When the companies allocate a high  proportion of their design and production capacities to their ongoing  projects, determining which customer order should be chosen among  the potential orders without exceeding the remaining capacity is the  major critical problem. In this study, it is aimed to identify and  prioritize the evaluation factors for the customer order selection  problem. Conjoint Analysis is used to examine the importance level  of each factor which is determined as the potential profit rate per unit  of time, the compatibility of potential order with available capacity,  the level of potential future order with higher profit, customer credit  of future business opportunity, and the negotiability level of  production schedule for the order.

 

Keywords: Conjoint analysis, order prioritization, profit management, structural steel firm.

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2231 A New Method for Complex Goods Selection in Electronic Markets

Authors: Mohammad Ali Tabarzad, Caro Lucas, Nassim Jafarzadeh Eslami

Abstract:

After the development of the Internet a suitable discipline for trading goods electronically has been emerged. However, this type of markets is not still mature enough in order to become independent and get closer to seller/buyer-s needs. Furthermore, the buyable and sellable goods in these markets still don-t have essential standards for being well-defined. In this paper, we will present a model for development of a market which can contain goods with variable definitions and we will also investigate its characteristics. Besides, by noticing the fact that people have different discriminations, it-s figured out that the significance of each attribute of a specific product may vary from different people-s view points. Consequently we-ll present a model for weighting and accordingly different people-s view points could be satisfied. These two aspects will be discussed completely throughout this paper.

Keywords: Electronic markets, selection of multi attributegoods, data infusion.

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2230 A New Approach of Fuzzy Methods for Evaluating of Hydrological Data

Authors: Nasser Shamskia, Seyyed Habib Rahmati, Hassan Haleh , Seyyedeh Hoda Rahmati

Abstract:

The main criteria of designing in the most hydraulic constructions essentially are based on runoff or discharge of water. Two of those important criteria are runoff and return period. Mostly, these measures are calculated or estimated by stochastic data. Another feature in hydrological data is their impreciseness. Therefore, in order to deal with uncertainty and impreciseness, based on Buckley-s estimation method, a new fuzzy method of evaluating hydrological measures are developed. The method introduces triangular shape fuzzy numbers for different measures in which both of the uncertainty and impreciseness concepts are considered. Besides, since another important consideration in most of the hydrological studies is comparison of a measure during different months or years, a new fuzzy method which is consistent with special form of proposed fuzzy numbers, is also developed. Finally, to illustrate the methods more explicitly, the two algorithms are tested on one simple example and a real case study.

Keywords: Fuzzy Discharge, Fuzzy estimation, Fuzzy ranking method, Hydrological data

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2229 Urban Form, Heritage, and Disaster Prevention: What Do They Have in Common?

Authors: Milton Montejano Castillo, Tarsicio Pastrana Salcedo

Abstract:

Based on the hypothesis that disaster risk is constructed socially and historically, this article shows the importance of keeping alive the historical memory of disaster by means of architectural and urban heritage conservation. This is illustrated with three examples of Latin American World Heritage cities, where disasters like floods and earthquakes have shaped urban form. Therefore, the study of urban form or "Urban Morphology" is proposed as a tool to understand and analyze urban transformations with the documentation of the occurrence of disasters. Lessons learned from such cities may be useful to reduce disasters risk in contemporary built environments.

Keywords: Conservation, disaster risk reduction, urban morphology, world heritage.

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2228 An Investigation into the Role of Market Beta in Asset Pricing: Evidence from the Romanian Stock Market

Authors: Ioan Popa, Radu Lupu, Cristiana Tudor

Abstract:

In this paper, we apply the FM methodology to the cross-section of Romanian-listed common stocks and investigate the explanatory power of market beta on the cross-section of commons stock returns from Bucharest Stock Exchange. Various assumptions are empirically tested, such us linearity, market efficiency, the “no systematic effect of non-beta risk" hypothesis or the positive expected risk-return trade-off hypothesis. We find that the Romanian stock market shows the same properties as the other emerging markets in terms of efficiency and significance of the linear riskreturn models. Our analysis included weekly returns from January 2002 until May 2010 and the portfolio formation, estimation and testing was performed in a rolling manner using 51 observations (one year) for each stage of the analysis.

Keywords: Bucharest Stock Exchange, Fama-Macbeth methodology, systematic risk, non-linear risk-return dependence.

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2227 Site Selection of Public Parking in Isfahan City, using AHP Model

Authors: M. Ahmadi Baseri, R. Mokhtari Malekabadi, A. Gandomkar

Abstract:

Nowadays, one of the most important problems of the metropolises and the world large cities is the habitant traffic difficulty and lack of sufficient parking site for the vehicles. Esfahan city as the third metropolis of Iran has encountered with the vehicles parkingplace problems in the most parts of fourteen regions of the city. The non principled and non systematic dispersal and lack of parking sites in the city has created an unfavorable status for its traffic and has caused the air and sound pollutions increase; in addition, it wastes the most portions of the citizenship and travelers' charge and time in urban pathways and disturbs their mental and psychical calmness, thus leads to their intensive dissatisfaction. In this study, by the usage of AHP model in GIS environment, the effective criteria in selecting the public parking sites have been combined with each other, and the results of the created layers overlapping represent the parking utilitarian vastness and widths. The achieved results of this research indicate the pretty appropriate public parking sites selection in region number 3 of Esfahan; but inconsequential dispersal and lack of these parking sites in this region have caused abundant transportation problems in Esfahan city.

Keywords: Public parking lots, Parking site selection, Geographical Information System (GIS), Hierarchical Analysis Model, Isfahan city.

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2226 The Use of Chlorophyll Meter Readings for the Selection of Maize Inbred Lines under Drought Stress

Authors: F. Gekas, C. Pankou, I. Mylonas, E. Ninou, E. Sinapidou, A. Lithourgidis, F. Papathanasiou, J. –K. Petrevska, F. Papadopoulou, P. Zouliamis, G. Tsaprounis, I. Tokatlidis, C. Dordas

Abstract:

The present study aimed to investigate whether chlorophyll meter readings (SPAD) can be used as criterion of singleplant selection in maize breeding. Experimentation was performed at the ultra-low density of 0.74 plants/m2 in order the potential yield per plant to be fully expressed. R-31 honeycomb experiments were conducted in three different areas in Greece (Thessaloniki, Giannitsa and Florina) using 30 inbred lines at well-watered and water-stressed conditions during the 2012 growing season. The chlorophyll meter readings had higher rates at dry conditions, except location of Giannitsa where differences were not significant. Genotypes of highest chlorophyll meter readings were consistent across areas, emphasizing on the character’s stability. A positive correlation between the chlorophyll meter readings and grain yield was strengthening over time and culminated at the physiological maturity stage. There was a clear sign that the chlorophyll meter readings has the potential to be used for the selection of stress-adaptive genotypes and may permit modern maize to be grown at wider range of environments addressing the climate change scenarios.

Keywords: Drought-prone environments, honeycomb breeding, SPAD, Zea mays.

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2225 Selection the Optimum Cooling Scheme for Generators based on the Electro-Thermal Analysis

Authors: Diako Azizi, Ahmad Gholami, Vahid Abbasi

Abstract:

Optimal selection of electrical insulations in electrical machinery insures reliability during operation. From the insulation studies of view for electrical machines, stator is the most important part. This fact reveals the requirement for inspection of the electrical machine insulation along with the electro-thermal stresses. In the first step of the study, a part of the whole structure of machine in which covers the general characteristics of the machine is chosen, then based on the electromagnetic analysis (finite element method), the machine operation is simulated. In the simulation results, the temperature distribution of the total structure is presented simultaneously by using electro-thermal analysis. The results of electro-thermal analysis can be used for designing an optimal cooling system. In order to design, review and comparing the cooling systems, four wiring structures in the slots of Stator are presented. The structures are compared to each other in terms of electrical, thermal distribution and remaining life of insulation by using Finite Element analysis. According to the steps of the study, an optimization algorithm has been presented for selection of appropriate structure.

Keywords: Electrical field, field distribution, insulation, winding, finite element method, electro thermal

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2224 Quick Reference: Cyber Attacks Awareness and Prevention Method for Home Users

Authors: Haydar Teymourlouei

Abstract:

It is important to take security measures to protect your computer information, reduce identify theft, and prevent from malicious cyber-attacks. With cyber-attacks on the continuous rise, people need to understand and learn ways to prevent from these attacks. Cyber-attack is an important factor to be considered if one is to be able to protect oneself from malicious attacks. Without proper security measures, most computer technology would hinder home users more than such technologies would help. Knowledge of how cyber-attacks operate and protective steps that can be taken to reduce chances of its occurrence are key to increasing these security measures. The purpose of this paper is to inform home users on the importance of identifying and taking preventive steps to avoid cyberattacks. Throughout this paper, many aspects of cyber-attacks will be discuss: what a cyber-attack is, the affects of cyber-attack for home users, different types of cyber-attacks, methodology to prevent such attacks; home users can take to fortify security of their computer.

Keywords: Cyber-attacks, home user, prevention, security, technology.

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2223 Fighter Aircraft Selection Using Fuzzy Preference Optimization Programming (POP)

Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

The Turkish Air Force needs to acquire a sixth- generation fighter aircraft in order to maintain its air superiority and dominance against its rivals under the risks posed by global geopolitical opportunities and threats. Accordingly, five evaluation criteria were determined to evaluate the sixth-generation fighter aircraft alternatives and to select the best one. Systematically, a new fuzzy preference optimization programming (POP) method is proposed to select the best sixth generation fighter aircraft in an uncertain environment. The POP technique considers both quantitative and qualitative evaluation criteria. To demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach, it is applied to a multiple criteria decision-making problem to evaluate and select sixth-generation fighter aircraft. The results of the fuzzy POP method are compared with the results of the fuzzy TOPSIS approach to validate it. According to the comparative analysis, fuzzy POP and fuzzy TOPSIS methods get the same results. This demonstrates the applicability of the fuzzy POP technique to address the sixth-generation fighter selection problem.

Keywords: Fighter aircraft selection, sixth-generation fighter aircraft, fuzzy decision process, multiple criteria decision making, preference optimization programming, POP, TOPSIS, Kizilelma, MIUS, fuzzy set theory

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