Search results for: BP neural network model.

Authors: P. Pongsumpun, I.M. Tang

Abstract:

Plasmodium vivax malaria differs from P. falciparum malaria in that a person suffering from P. vivax infection can suffer relapses of the disease. This is due the parasite being able to remain dormant in the liver of the patients where it is able to re-infect the patient after a passage of time. During this stage, the patient is classified as being in the dormant class. The model to describe the transmission of P. vivax malaria consists of a human population divided into four classes, the susceptible, the infected, the dormant and the recovered. The effect of a time delay on the transmission of this disease is studied. The time delay is the period in which the P. vivax parasite develops inside the mosquito (vector) before the vector becomes infectious (i.e., pass on the infection). We analyze our model by using standard dynamic modeling method. Two stable equilibrium states, a disease free state E0 and an endemic state E1, are found to be possible. It is found that the E0 state is stable when a newly defined basic reproduction number G is less than one. If G is greater than one the endemic state E1 is stable. The conditions for the endemic equilibrium state E1 to be a stable spiral node are established. For realistic values of the parameters in the model, it is found that solutions in phase space are trajectories spiraling into the endemic state. It is shown that the limit cycle and chaotic behaviors can only be achieved with unrealistic parameter values.

Keywords: Equilibrium states, Hopf bifurcation, limit cyclebehavior, local stability, Plasmodium Vivax, time delay.

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Authors: M. Chandrasekaran, D. Devarasiddappa

Abstract:

Metal matrix composites have been increasingly used as materials for components in automotive and aerospace industries because of their improved properties compared with non-reinforced alloys. During machining the selection of appropriate machining parameters to produce job for desired surface roughness is of great concern considering the economy of manufacturing process. In this study, a surface roughness prediction model using fuzzy logic is developed for end milling of Al-SiCp metal matrix composite component using carbide end mill cutter. The surface roughness is modeled as a function of spindle speed (N), feed rate (f), depth of cut (d) and the SiCp percentage (S). The predicted values surface roughness is compared with experimental result. The model predicts average percentage error as 4.56% and mean square error as 0.0729. It is observed that surface roughness is most influenced by feed rate, spindle speed and SiC percentage. Depth of cut has least influence.

Keywords: End milling, fuzzy logic, metal matrix composites, surface roughness

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Authors: N. Outili, A-H. Meniai

Abstract:

Modeling transfer phenomena in several chemical engineering operations leads to the resolution of partial differential equations systems. According to the complexity of the operations mechanisms, the equations present a nonlinear form and analytical solution became difficult, we have then to use numerical methods which are based on approximations in order to transform a differential system to an algebraic one.Finite element method is one of numerical methods which can be used to obtain an accurate solution in many complex cases of chemical engineering.The packed columns find a large application like contactor for liquid-liquid systems such solvent extraction. In the literature, the modeling of this type of equipment received less attention in comparison with the plate columns.A mathematical bidimensionnal model with radial and axial dispersion, simulating packed tower extraction behavior was developed and a partial differential equation was solved using the finite element method by adopting the Galerkine model. We developed a Mathcad program, which can be used for a similar equations and concentration profiles are obtained along the column. The influence of radial dispersion was prooved and it can-t be neglected, the results were compared with experimental concentration at the top of the column in the extraction system: acetone/toluene/water.

Keywords: finite element method, Galerkine method, liquidliquid extraction modelling, packed column simulation, two dimensional model

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Authors: Shih-Ching Lo

Abstract:

Understanding driving behavior is a complicated researching topic. To describe accurate speed, flow and density of a multiclass users traffic flow, an adequate model is needed. In this study, we propose the concept of standard passenger car equivalent (SPCE) instead of passenger car equivalent (PCE) to estimate the influence of heavy vehicles and slow cars. Traffic cellular automata model is employed to calibrate and validate the results. According to the simulated results, the SPCE transformations present good accuracy.

Keywords: traffic flow, passenger car equivalent, cellular automata

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Authors: S. Shahrooi, I. H. Metselaar, Z. Huda

Abstract:

When considering the development of constitutive equations describing the behavior of materials under cyclic plastic strains, different kinds of formulations can be adopted. The primary intention of this study is to develop computer programming of plasticity models to accurately predict the life of engineering components. For this purpose, the energy or cyclic strain is computed in multi-surface plasticity models in non-proportional loading and to present their procedures and codes results.

Keywords: Strain energy, cyclic plasticity model, multi-surface model, codes result.

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Authors: Brajesh Kumar Jha, Neeru Adlakha, M. N. Mehta

Abstract:

Mathematical and computational modeling of calcium signalling in nerve cells has produced considerable insights into how the cells contracts with other cells under the variation of biophysical and physiological parameters. The modeling of calcium signaling in astrocytes has become more sophisticated. The modeling effort has provided insight to understand the cell contraction. Main objective of this work is to study the effect of voltage gated (Operated) calcium channel (VOC) on calcium profile in the form of advection diffusion equation. A mathematical model is developed in the form of advection diffusion equation for the calcium profile. The model incorporates the important physiological parameter like diffusion coefficient etc. Appropriate boundary conditions have been framed. Finite volume method is employed to solve the problem. A program has been developed using in MATLAB 7.5 for the entire problem and simulated on an AMD-Turion 32-bite machine to compute the numerical results.

Keywords: Ca2+ Profile, Advection Diffusion, VOC, FVM.

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Authors: Muhammad Amjad Sohail, Prof. Yan Chao, Mukkarum Husain

Abstract:

Flow field around hypersonic vehicles is very complex and difficult to simulate. The boundary layers are squeezed between shock layer and body surface. Resolution of boundary layer, shock wave and turbulent regions where the flow field has high values is difficult of capture. Detached eddy simulation (DES) is a modification of a RANS model in which the model switches to a subgrid scale formulation in regions fine enough for LES calculations. Regions near solid body boundaries and where the turbulent length scale is less than the maximum grid dimension are assigned the RANS mode of solution. As the turbulent length scale exceeds the grid dimension, the regions are solved using the LES mode. Therefore the grid resolution is not as demanding as pure LES, thereby considerably cutting down the cost of the computation. In this research study hypersonic flow is simulated at Mach 8 and different angle of attacks to resolve the proper boundary layers and discontinuities. The flow is also simulated in the long wake regions. Mesh is little different than RANS simulations and it is made dense near the boundary layers and in the wake regions to resolve it properly. Hypersonic blunt cone cylinder body with frustrum at angle 5o and 10 o are simulated and there aerodynamics study is performed to calculate aerodynamics characteristics of different geometries. The results and then compared with experimental as well as with some turbulence model (SA Model). The results achieved with DES simulation have very good resolution as well as have excellent agreement with experimental and available data. Unsteady simulations are performed for DES calculations by using duel time stepping method or implicit time stepping. The simulations are performed at Mach number 8 and angle of attack from 0o to 10o for all these cases. The results and resolutions for DES model found much better than SA turbulence model.

Keywords: Detached eddy simulation, dual time stepping, hypersonic flow, turbulence modeling

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Authors: Puntani Pongsumpun, I-Ming Tang

Abstract:

The most Malaria cases are occur along Thai-Mynmar border. Mathematical model for the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria in a mixed population of Thais and migrant Burmese living along the Thai-Myanmar Border is studied. The population is separated into two groups, Thai and Burmese. Each population is divided into susceptible, infected, dormant and recovered subclasses. The loss of immunity by individuals in the infected class causes them to move back into the susceptible class. The person who is infected with Plasmodium vivax and is a member of the dormant class can relapse back into the infected class. A standard dynamical method is used to analyze the behaviors of the model. Two stable equilibrium states, a disease-free state and an epidemic state, are found to be possible in each population. A disease-free equilibrium state in the Thai population occurs when there are no infected Burmese entering the community. When infected Burmese enter the Thai community, an epidemic state can occur. It is found that the disease-free state is stable when the threshold number is less than one. The epidemic state is stable when a second threshold number is greater than one. Numerical simulations are used to confirm the results of our model.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number, Burmese, local stability, Plasmodium Vivax malaria.

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Authors: Marine Segui, Matthieu Mantilla, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez

Abstract:

This research is the part of a major project at the Research Laboratory in Active Controls, Avionics and Aeroservoelasticity (LARCASE) aiming to improve a Cessna Citation X aircraft cruise performance with an application of the morphing wing technology on its horizontal tail. However, the horizontal stabilizer of the Cessna Citation X turns around its span axis with an angle between -8 and 2 degrees. Within this range, the horizontal stabilizer generates certainly some unwanted drag. To cancel this drag, the LARCASE proposes to trim the aircraft with a horizontal stabilizer equipped by a morphing wing technology. This technology aims to optimize aerodynamic performances by changing the conventional horizontal tail shape during the flight. As a consequence, this technology will be able to generate enough lift on the horizontal tail to balance the aircraft without an unwanted drag generation. To conduct this project, an accurate aerodynamic model of the horizontal tail is firstly required. This aerodynamic model will finally allow precise comparison between a conventional horizontal tail and a morphed horizontal tail results. This paper presents how this aerodynamic model was designed. In this way, it shows how the 2D geometry of the horizontal tail was collected and how the unknown airfoil’s shape of the horizontal tail has been recovered. Finally, the complete horizontal tail airfoil shape was found and a comparison between aerodynamic polar of the real horizontal tail and the horizontal tail found in this paper shows a maximum difference of 0.04 on the lift or the drag coefficient which is very good. Aerodynamic polar data of the aircraft horizontal tail are obtained from the CAE Inc. level D research aircraft flight simulator of the Cessna Citation X.

Keywords: Aerodynamic, Cessna, Citation X, coefficient, Datcom, drag, lift, longitudinal, model, OpenVSP.

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Authors: Loay A. Al-Zu'be, Asma A. Al-Tamimi, Thakir D. Al-Momani, Ayat J. Alkarala, Maryam A. Alzawahreh

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A two dimensional three segments coupled pendulum system that mathematically models human arm configuration was developed along with constructing and solving the equations of motions for this model using the energy (work) based approach of Lagrange. The equations of motion of the model were solved iteratively both as an initial value problem and as a two point boundary value problem. In the initial value problem solutions, both the initial system configuration (segment angles) and initial system velocity (segment angular velocities) were used as inputs, whereas, in the two point boundary value problem solutions initial and final configurations and time were used as inputs to solve for the trajectory of motion. The results suggest that the model solutions are sensitive to small changes in the dynamic forces applied to the system as well as to the initial and boundary conditions used. To overcome the system sensitivity a new approach is suggested.

Keywords: Body Configurations, Equations of Motion, Mathematical Modeling, Movement Trajectories.

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

Abstract:

In this paper presents a technique for developing the computational efficiency in simulating double output induction generators (DOIG) with two rotor circuits where stator transients are to be included. Iterative decomposition is used to separate the flux– Linkage equations into decoupled fast and slow subsystems, after which the model order of the fast subsystems is reduced by neglecting the heavily damped fast transients caused by the second rotor circuit using integral manifolds theory. The two decoupled subsystems along with the equation for the very slowly changing slip constitute a three time-scale model for the machine which resulted in increasing computational speed. Finally, the proposed method of reduced order in this paper is compared with the other conventional methods in linear and nonlinear modes and it is shown that this method is better than the other methods regarding simulation accuracy and speed.

Keywords: DOIG, Iterative separation, Integral manifolds, Reduced order.

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Authors: Wipassorn Vinicchayakul, Pichaya Supanakoon, Sathaporn Promwong

Abstract:

A human’s hand localization is revised by using radar cross section (RCS) measurements with a minimum root mean square (RMS) error matching algorithm on a touchless keypad mock-up model. RCS and frequency transfer function measurements are carried out in an indoor environment on the frequency ranged from 3.0 to 11.0 GHz to cover federal communications commission (FCC) standards. The touchless keypad model is tested in two different distances between the hand and the keypad. The initial distance of 19.50 cm is identical to the heights of transmitting (Tx) and receiving (Rx) antennas, while the second distance is 29.50 cm from the keypad. Moreover, the effects of Rx angles relative to the hand of human factor are considered. The RCS input parameters are compared with power loss parameters at each frequency. From the results, the performance of the RCS input parameters with the second distance, 29.50 cm at 3 GHz is better than the others.

Keywords: Radar cross section (RCS), fingerprint-based localization, minimum root mean square (RMS) error matching algorithm, touchless keypad model.

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Authors: Ahmed K. Hasan, A. A. Zaidan, Anas Majeed, B. B. Zaidan, Rosli Salleh, Omar Zakaria, Ali Zuheir

Abstract:

Wireless mesh networks based on IEEE 802.11 technology are a scalable and efficient solution for next generation wireless networking to provide wide-area wideband internet access to a significant number of users. The deployment of these wireless mesh networks may be within different authorities and without any planning, they are potentially overlapped partially or completely in the same service area. The aim of the proposed model is design a new model to Enhancement Throughput of Unplanned Wireless Mesh Networks Deployment Using Partitioning Hierarchical Cluster (PHC), the unplanned deployment of WMNs are determinates there performance. We use throughput optimization approach to model the unplanned WMNs deployment problem based on partitioning hierarchical cluster (PHC) based architecture, in this paper the researcher used bridge node by allowing interworking traffic between these WMNs as solution for performance degradation.

Keywords: Wireless Mesh Networks, 802.11s Internetworking, partitioning Hierarchical Cluste.

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Authors: Le Ngoc Hung, Abriak Nor Edine, Binetruy Christophe, Benzerzour Mahfoud, Shahrour Isam, Patrice Rivard

Abstract:

Bottom ash from Municipal Solid Waste Incineration (MSWI) can be viewed as a typical granular material because these industrial by-products result from the incineration of various domestic wastes. MSWI bottom ash is mainly used in road engineering in substitution of the traditional natural aggregates. As the characterization of their mechanical behavior is essential in order to use them, specific studies have been led over the past few years. In the first part of this paper, the mechanical behavior of MSWI bottom ash is studied with triaxial tests. After, analysis of the experiment results, the simulation of triaxial tests is carried out by using the software package CESAR-LCPC. As the first approach in modeling of this new class material, the Mohr-Coulomb model was chosen to describe the evolution of material under the influence of external mechanical actions.

Keywords: Bottom ash, granular material, triaxial test, mechanical behavior, simulation, Mohr-Coulomb model, CESARLCPC.

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Authors: A. Elsayed Ahmed, A. Hafez, A. N. Ouda, H. Eldin Hussein Ahmed, H. Mohamed Abd-Elkader

Abstract:

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are playing increasingly prominent roles in defense programs and defense strategies around the world. Technology advancements have enabled the development of it to do many excellent jobs as reconnaissance, surveillance, battle fighters, and communications relays. Simulating a small unmanned aerial vehicle (SUAV) dynamics and analyzing its behavior at the preflight stage is too important and more efficient. The first step in the UAV design is the mathematical modeling of the nonlinear equations of motion. . In this paper, a survey with a standard method to obtain the full non-linear equations of motion is utilized, and then the linearization of the equations according to a steady state flight condition (trimming) is derived. This modeling technique is applied to an Ultrastick-25e fixed wing UAV to obtain the valued linear longitudinal and lateral models. At the end the model is checked by matching between the behavior of the states of the nonlinear UAV and the resulted linear model with doublet at the control surfaces.

Keywords: Equations of motion, linearization, modeling, nonlinear model, UAV.

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Authors: Hamid Maidat, Khedidja Bouhadef, Djamel Eddine Ameziani, Azzedine Abdedou

Abstract:

This work consists of a numerical simulation of convective heat transfer in a vertical plane channel filled with a heat generating porous medium, in the absence of local thermal equilibrium. The walls are maintained to a constant temperature and the inlet velocity is uniform. The dynamic range is described by the Darcy-Brinkman model and the thermal field by two energy equations model. A dimensionless formulation is developed for performing a parametric study based on certain dimensionless groups such as, the Biot interstitial number, the thermal conductivity ratio and the volumetric heat generation, q '''. The governing equations are solved using the finite volume method, gave rise to a multitude of results concerning in particular the thermal field in the porous channel and the existence or not of the local thermal equilibrium.

Keywords: Mixed convection, porous medium, power generation, local thermal non equilibrium model.

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Authors: Alireza Behvandi, Somayeh Tourani

Abstract:

High pressure adsorption of carbon dioxide on zeolite 13X was investigated in the pressure range (0 to 4) Mpa and temperatures 298, 308 and 323K. The data fitting is accomplished with the Toth, UNILAN, Dubinin-Astakhov and virial adsorption models which are generally used for micro porous adsorbents such as zeolites. Comparison with experimental data from the literature indicated that the virial model would best determine results. These results may be partly attributed to the flexibility of the virial model which can accommodate as many constants as the data warrants.

Keywords: adsorption models, zeolite, carbon dioxide

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

Abstract:

This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: Defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, Generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), Risk factors.

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Authors: Ming Guan

Abstract:

This paper proposes a simple model of economic geography within the Dixit-Stiglitz-Iceberg framework that may be used to analyze migration patterns among three cities. The cost–benefit tradeoffs affecting incentives for three types of migration, including echelon migration, are discussed. This paper develops a tractable, heterogeneous-agent, general equilibrium model, where agents share constant human capital, and explores the relationship between the benefits of echelon migration and gross human capital. Using Chinese numerical solutions, we study the manifestation of echelon migration and how it responds to changes in transportation cost and elasticity of substitution. Numerical results demonstrate that (i) there are positive relationships between a migration-s benefit-and-wage ratio, (ii) there are positive relationships between gross human capital ratios and wage ratios as to origin and destination, and (iii) we identify 13 varieties of human capital convergence among cities. In particular, this model predicts population shock resulting from the processes of migration choice and echelon migration.

Keywords: Dixit-Stiglitz-Iceberg framework, elasticity , echelonmigration, trade-off

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Authors: Abdelhakam A. Noreldien, Sakhr B. Abudarag, Muslim S. Eltoum, Salih O. Osman

Abstract:

This paper presents an analytical study of Small Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (SUAV) dynamic stability derivatives. Simulating SUAV dynamics and analyzing its behavior at the earliest design stages is too important and more efficient design aspect. The approach suggested in this paper is using the wind tunnel experiment to collect the aerodynamic data and get the dynamic stability derivatives. AutoCAD Software was used to draw the case study (wildlife surveillance SUAV). The SUAV is scaled down to be 0.25% of the real SUAV dimensions and converted to a wind tunnel model. The model was tested in three different speeds for three different attitudes which are; pitch, roll and yaw. The wind tunnel results were then used to determine the case study stability derivative values, and hence it used to calculate the roots of the characteristic equation for both longitudinal and lateral motions. Finally, the characteristic equation roots were found and discussed in all possible cases.

Keywords: Model, simulating, SUAV, wind tunnel.

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Authors: Zina Ghiloufi, Tahar Khir

Abstract:

A transient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to determine the velocity and temperature distribution in different positions cold room during pre-cooling of dates. The turbulence model used is the k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) with the standard wall function, the air. The numerical results obtained show that cooling rate is not uniform inside the room; the product at the medium of room has a slower cooling rate. This cooling heterogeneity has a large effect on the energy consumption during cold storage.

Keywords: Numerical simulation, CFD, k-ω (SST), cold room, dates, cooling rate.

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Authors: Rafat Alshorman, Walter Hussak

Abstract:

Most of the concurrent transactional protocols consider serializability as a correctness criterion of the transactions execution. Usually, the proof of the serializability relies on mathematical proofs for a fixed finite number of transactions. In this paper, we introduce a protocol to deal with an infinite number of transactions which are iterated infinitely often. We specify serializability of the transactions and the protocol using a specification language based on temporal logics. It is worthwhile using temporal logics such as LTL (Lineartime Temporal Logic) to specify transactions, to gain full automatic verification by using model checkers.

Keywords: Multi-step transactions, LTL specifications, Model Checking.

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Authors: S. N. Moghaddas Tafreshi, S. M. Amin Ghotbi

Abstract:

This paper presents a numerical study for investigating the effectiveness of geocell reinforcement in reducing pressure and settlement over EPS geofoam blocks in road embankments. A 3-D FEM model of soil and geofoam was created in ABAQUS, and geocell was also modeled realistically using membrane elements. The accuracy of the model was tested by comparing its results with previous works. Sensitivity analyses showed that reinforcing the soil cover with geocell has a significant influence on the reduction of imposed stresses over geofoam and consequently decreasing its deformation.

Keywords: EPS geofoam, road embankments, geocell, reinforcement, lightweight fill.

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Authors: A. K. Prajapati

Abstract:

In this paper, the periodic surveillance scheme has been proposed for any convex region using mobile wireless sensor nodes. A sensor network typically consists of fixed number of sensor nodes which report the measurements of sensed data such as temperature, pressure, humidity, etc., of its immediate proximity (the area within its sensing range). For the purpose of sensing an area of interest, there are adequate number of fixed sensor nodes required to cover the entire region of interest. It implies that the number of fixed sensor nodes required to cover a given area will depend on the sensing range of the sensor as well as deployment strategies employed. It is assumed that the sensors to be mobile within the region of surveillance, can be mounted on moving bodies like robots or vehicle. Therefore, in our scheme, the surveillance time period determines the number of sensor nodes required to be deployed in the region of interest. The proposed scheme comprises of three algorithms namely: Hexagonalization, Clustering, and Scheduling, The first algorithm partitions the coverage area into fixed sized hexagons that approximate the sensing range (cell) of individual sensor node. The clustering algorithm groups the cells into clusters, each of which will be covered by a single sensor node. The later determines a schedule for each sensor to serve its respective cluster. Each sensor node traverses all the cells belonging to the cluster assigned to it by oscillating between the first and the last cell for the duration of its life time. Simulation results show that our scheme provides full coverage within a given period of time using few sensors with minimum movement, less power consumption, and relatively less infrastructure cost.

Keywords: Sensor Network, Graph Theory, MSN, Communication.

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Authors: Vernie C. Convicto, Henry P. Aringa, Wilson I. Barredo

Abstract:

This study presents a conformational model of the helical structures of globular protein particularly ferritin in the framework of white noise path integral formulation by using Associated Legendre functions, Bessel and convolution of Bessel and trigonometric functions as modulating functions. The model incorporates chirality features of proteins and their helix-turn-helix sequence structural motif.

Keywords: Globular protein, modulating function, white noise, winding probability.

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Authors: W. K. Hiromi Ariyaratne, Morten C. Melaaen, Lars-André Tokheim

Abstract:

A mathematical model based on a mass and energy balance for the combustion in a cement rotary kiln was developed. The model was used to investigate the impact of replacing about 45 % of the primary coal energy by different alternative fuels. Refuse derived fuel, waste wood, solid hazardous waste and liquid hazardous waste were used in the modeling. The results showed that in order to keep the kiln temperature unchanged, and thereby maintain the required clinker quality, the production capacity had to be reduced by 1-15 %, depending on the fuel type. The reason for the reduction is increased exhaust gas flow rates caused by the fuel characteristics. The model, which has been successfully validated in a full-scale experiment, was also used to show that the negative impact on the production capacity can be avoided if a relatively small part of the combustion air is replaced by pure oxygen.

Keywords: Alternative fuels, Cement kiln main burner, Oxygen enrichment, Production capacity.

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Authors: Abdolsalam Ghaderi

Abstract:

In this paper, the single-depot capacitated location-routing problem under uncertainty is presented. The problem aims to find the optimal location of a single depot and the routing of vehicles to serve the customers when the parameters may change under different circumstances. This problem has many applications, especially in the area of supply chain management and distribution systems. To get closer to real-world situations, travel time of vehicles, the fixed cost of vehicles usage and customers’ demand are considered as a source of uncertainty. A combined approach including robust optimization and stochastic programming was presented to deal with the uncertainty in the problem at hand. For this purpose, a mixed integer programming model is developed and a heuristic algorithm based on Variable Neighborhood Search(VNS) is presented to solve the model. Finally, the computational results are presented and future research directions are discussed.

Keywords: Location-routing problem, robust optimization, Stochastic Programming, variable neighborhood search.

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Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

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The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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Authors: Vahid Hosseinpour, Mohammad Kazemini, Alireza Mohammadrezaee

Abstract:

carbonylation of methanol in homogenous phase is one of the major routesfor production of acetic acid. Amongst group VIII metal catalysts used in this process iridium has displayed the best capabilities. To investigate effect of operating parameters like: temperature, pressure, methyl iodide, methyl acetate, iridium, ruthenium, and water concentrations on the reaction rate, experimental design for this system based upon central composite design (CCD) was utilized. Statistical rate equation developed by this method contained individual, interactions and curvature effects of parameters on the reaction rate. The model with p-value less than 0.0001 and R2 values greater than 0.9; confirmeda satisfactory fitness of the experimental and theoretical studies. In other words, the developed model and experimental data obtained passed all diagnostic tests establishing this model as a statistically significant.

Keywords: Acetic Acid, Carbonylation of Methanol, Central Composite Design, Experimental Design, Iridium/Ruthenium

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Authors: Samah Jawad Jabari

Abstract:

Water is the most important and valuable resource not only for human life but also for all living things on the planet. The water supply utilities should fulfill the water requirement quantitatively and qualitatively. Drinking water systems are exposed to both natural (hurricanes and flood) and manmade hazards (risks) that are common in Palestine. Non-Revenue Water (NRW) is a manmade risk which remains a major concern in Palestine, as the NRW levels are estimated to be at a high level. In this research, Hebron city water distribution network was taken as a case study to estimate and audit the NRW levels. The research also investigated the state of the existing water distribution system in the study area by investigating the water losses and obtained more information on NRW prevention and management practices. Data and information have been collected from the Palestinian Water Authority (PWA) and Hebron Municipality (HM) archive. In addition to that, a questionnaire has been designed and administered by the researcher in order to collect the necessary data for water auditing. The questionnaire also assessed the views of stakeholder in PWA and HM (staff) on the current status of the NRW in the Hebron water distribution system. The important result obtained by this research shows that NRW in Hebron city was high and in excess of 30%. The main factors that contribute to NRW were the inaccuracies in billing volumes, unauthorized consumption, and the method of estimating consumptions through faulty meters. Policy for NRW reduction is available in Palestine; however, it is clear that the number of qualified staff available to carry out the activities related to leak detection is low, and that there is a lack of appropriate technologies to reduce water losses and undertake sufficient system maintenance, which needs to be improved to enhance the performance of the network and decrease the level of NRW losses.

Keywords: Non-revenue water, water auditing, leak detection, water meters.

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