Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3154

Search results for: Risk factors.

3154 Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

Abstract:

This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

 

Keywords: Ergonomics, musculoskeletal disorders, occupational diseases, risk factors.

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3153 UEMSD Risk Identification – Case Study

Authors: K. Sekulová, M. Šimon

Abstract:

The article demonstrates on a case study how it is possible to identify MSD risk. It is based on a dissertation Risk identification model of occupational diseases formation in relation to the work activity that determines what risk can endanger workers who are exposed to the specific risk factors. It is evaluated based on statistical calculations. These risk factors are main cause of upperextremities musculoskeletal disorders.

Keywords: Case study, upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders, ergonomics.

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3152 Classification of Health Risk Factors to Predict the Risk of Falling in Older Adults

Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

Abstract:

Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: Classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults.

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3151 Evaluation of Disease Risk Variables in the Control of Bovine Tuberculosis

Authors: Berrin Şentürk

Abstract:

In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: Bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis.

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3150 Relationship between Functional Gastrointestinal Disorders and Risk Factors: A Biomechanical Analysis

Authors: Dae Gon Woo, Han Sung Kim, Dohyung Lim, Dong Jin Seo, In Deok Kong, Chang Yong Ko

Abstract:

Functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGID) affect millions of people spread all age regardless of race and sex. Emotional stress and obesity have been associated with increased reporting of gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, but the relationship between FGID and risk factors (emotional stress or obesity) is unclear. Our aim was to assess the changes of the mechanical characteristics on the gastrointestinal tracts of the mentally fatigued obese and normal rat models. Finally, using the physical characteristics with micro-indentation test, we made a close investigation into the relation between FGID and risk factors quantitatively.

Keywords: Functional gastrointestinal disorders, Risk Factors, Mechanical Characteristics, Gastrointestinal Tract.

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3149 Multidimensional and Data Mining Analysis for Property Investment Risk Analysis

Authors: Nur Atiqah Rochin Demong, Jie Lu, Farookh Khadeer Hussain

Abstract:

Property investment in the real estate industry has a high risk due to the uncertainty factors that will affect the decisions made and high cost. Analytic hierarchy process has existed for some time in which referred to an expert-s opinion to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors for the risk analysis. Therefore, different level of experts- experiences will create different opinion and lead to the conflict among the experts in the field. The objective of this paper is to propose a new technique to measure the uncertainty of the risk factors based on multidimensional data model and data mining techniques as deterministic approach. The propose technique consist of a basic framework which includes four modules: user, technology, end-user access tools and applications. The property investment risk analysis defines as a micro level analysis as the features of the property will be considered in the analysis in this paper.

Keywords: Uncertainty factors, data mining, multidimensional data model, risk analysis.

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3148 Risk Management through Controlling in Industrial Enterprises Operating in Slovakia

Authors: Mária Hudáková, Mária Lusková

Abstract:

This report is focused on widening the theoretical knowledge as well as controlling practical application from the risk management point of view, regarding to dynamic business changes that have occurred in Slovakia which recently has been considered to be an environment full of risk and uncertainty. The idea of the report is the proposal of the controlling operation model in the course of risk management process in an enterprise operating in Slovakia, by which the controller is able to identify early risk factors in suggested major areas of the business management upon appropriate business information integration, consecutive control and prognoses and to prepare in time full-value documents in order to suggest measures for reduction thereof. Dealing with risk factors, that can quickly limit the growth potential of the enterprise, is an essential part of managerial activities on each level. This is the reason why mutual unofficial, ergo collegial cooperation of individual departments is necessary for controlling application from the business risk management point of view. An important part of the report is elaborated survey of the most important risk factors existing in major management areas of enterprises operating in Slovakia. The outcome of the performed survey is a catalogue of the most important enterprise risk factors. The catalogue serves for better understanding risk factors affecting the Slovak enterprises, their importance and evaluation.

Keywords: Controlling, information system, risks management, risk factor, crisis of enterprise.

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3147 Methods for Data Selection in Medical Databases: The Binary Logistic Regression -Relations with the Calculated Risks

Authors: Cristina G. Dascalu, Elena Mihaela Carausu, Daniela Manuc

Abstract:

The medical studies often require different methods for parameters selection, as a second step of processing, after the database-s designing and filling with information. One common task is the selection of fields that act as risk factors using wellknown methods, in order to find the most relevant risk factors and to establish a possible hierarchy between them. Different methods are available in this purpose, one of the most known being the binary logistic regression. We will present the mathematical principles of this method and a practical example of using it in the analysis of the influence of 10 different psychiatric diagnostics over 4 different types of offences (in a database made from 289 psychiatric patients involved in different types of offences). Finally, we will make some observations about the relation between the risk factors hierarchy established through binary logistic regression and the individual risks, as well as the results of Chi-squared test. We will show that the hierarchy built using the binary logistic regression doesn-t agree with the direct order of risk factors, even if it was naturally to assume this hypothesis as being always true.

Keywords: Databases, risk factors, binary logisticregression, hierarchy.

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3146 Risk Factors for Defective Autoparts Products Using Bayesian Method in Poisson Generalized Linear Mixed Model

Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

Abstract:

This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: Defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, Generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), Risk factors.

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3145 Risk Evaluation of Information Technology Projects Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchal Process

Authors: H. Iranmanesh, S. Nazari Shirkouhi, M. R. Skandari

Abstract:

Information Technology (IT) projects are always accompanied by various risks and because of high rate of failure in such projects, managing risks in order to neutralize or at least decrease their effects on the success of the project is strongly essential. In this paper, fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) is exploited as a means of risk evaluation methodology to prioritize and organize risk factors faced in IT projects. A real case of IT projects, a project of design and implementation of an integrated information system in a vehicle producing company in Iran is studied. Related risk factors are identified and then expert qualitative judgments about these factors are acquired. Translating these judgments to fuzzy numbers and using them as an input to FAHP, risk factors are then ranked and prioritized by FAHP in order to make project managers aware of more important risks and enable them to adopt suitable measures to deal with these highly devastative risks.

Keywords: Information technology projects, Risk evaluation, Analytic hierarchal process, fuzzy logic.

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3144 Risk Assessment of Building Information Modelling Adoption in Construction Projects

Authors: Amirhossein Karamoozian, Desheng Wu, Behzad Abbasnejad

Abstract:

Building information modelling (BIM) is a new technology to enhance the efficiency of project management in the construction industry. In addition to the potential benefits of this useful technology, there are various risks and obstacles to applying it in construction projects. In this study, a decision making approach is presented for risk assessment in BIM adoption in construction projects. Various risk factors of exerting BIM during different phases of the project lifecycle are identified with the help of Delphi method, experts’ opinions and related literature. Afterward, Shannon’s entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation) are applied to derive priorities of the identified risk factors. Results indicated that lack of knowledge between professional engineers about workflows in BIM and conflict of opinions between different stakeholders are the risk factors with the highest priority.

Keywords: Risk, BIM, Shannon’s entropy, Fuzzy TOPSIS, construction projects.

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3143 Sociodemographic Risk Factors of Cervical Cancer in Imphal, Manipur

Authors: Arundhati Devi Maibam, K. Ingocha Singh

Abstract:

Cervical cancer is preventable if detected early. Determination of risk factors is essential to plan screening programmes to prevent the disease. To study the demographic risk factors of cervical cancer among Manipuri women, information on age, marital status, educational level, monthly family income and socioeconomic status were collected through a pre-tested interview schedule. In this study, 64 incident cases registered at the RT Dept, RIMS (Regional Institute of Medical Sciences), Imphal, Manipur, India during 2008-09 participated. Data were entered in Microsoft Excel and the results were expressed in percentages. Among the 64 patients with cervical cancer, 56 (88.9%) were in the age group of 40+ years. The majority of the patients were from rural areas (68.75%) and 31.25% were from urban areas. The majority of the patients were Hindus (73%), 55(85.9%) were of low educational level, 43(67.2%) were married, and 36 (56.25%) belonged to Class IV socioeconomic status. In conclusion, if detected early, cervical cancer is preventable and curable. The potential risk factors need to be identified and women in the risk group need to be motivated for screening. Affordable screening programmes and health care resources will help in lessening the burden of the disease.

Keywords: Cervical cancer, Manipuri women, RIIMS, Socio-demographic risk factors.

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3142 A Bayesian Classification System for Facilitating an Institutional Risk Profile Definition

Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach for easy creation and classification of institutional risk profiles supporting endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support set up of the most important risk factors. Subsequently, risk profiles employ risk factors classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment group for file format risk profiles. Our goal is to make use of an expert knowledge base, accuired through a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation of risk factors for a requried dimension for analysis. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert the matching risk profile group for the previously selected institutional risk profile. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor values and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is designed to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and values of file format risk profiles. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert and to define its profile group. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: linked open data, information integration, digital libraries, data mining.

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3141 Planning a Supply Chain with Risk and Environmental Objectives

Authors: Ghanima Al-Sharrah, Haitham M. Lababidi, Yusuf I. Ali

Abstract:

The main objective of the current work is to introduce sustainability factors in optimizing the supply chain model for process industries. The supply chain models are normally based on purely economic considerations related to costs and profits. To account for sustainability, two additional factors have been introduced; environment and risk. A supply chain for an entire petroleum organization has been considered for implementing and testing the proposed optimization models. The environmental and risk factors were introduced as indicators reflecting the anticipated impact of the optimal production scenarios on sustainability. The aggregation method used in extending the single objective function to multi-objective function is proven to be quite effective in balancing the contribution of each objective term. The results indicate that introducing sustainability factor would slightly reduce the economic benefit while improving the environmental and risk reduction performances of the process industries.

Keywords: Supply chain, optimization, LP models, risk, environmental indicators, multi-objective.

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3140 Determinants of Enterprise Risk Management Adoption: An Empirical Analysis of Malaysian Public Listed Firms

Authors: Nargess Mottaghi Golshan, Siti Zaleha Abdul Rasid

Abstract:

Purpose:This paper aims to gain insights to the influential factors of ERM adoptions by public listed firms in Malaysia. Findings:The two factors of financial leverage and auditor type were found to be significant influential factors for ERM adoption. In other words the findings indicated that firms with higher financial leverage and with a Big Four auditor are more likely to have a form of ERM framework in place. Originality/Value:Since there are relatively few studies conducted in this area and specially in developing economies like Malaysia, this study will broaden the scope of literature by providing novel empirical evidence.

Keywords: Enterprise risk management, risk, public listed company.

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3139 Links between Landscape Management and Environmental Risk Assessment: Considerations from the Italian Context

Authors: M. Balestrieri, C. Pusceddu

Abstract:

Issues relating to the destructive phenomena that can damage people and goods have returned to the centre of debate in Italy with the increase in catastrophic episodes in recent years in a country which is highly vulnerable to hydrological risk. Environmental factors and geological and geomorphological territorial characteristics play an important role in determining the level of vulnerability and the natural tendency to risk. However, a territory has also been subjected to the requirements of and transformations of society and this brings other relevant factors. The reasons for the increase in destructive phenomena are often to be found in the territorial development models adopted. Stewardship of the landscape and management of risk are related issues. This study aims to summarize the most relevant elements about this connection and at the same time to clarify the role of environmental risk assessment as a tool to aid in the sustainable management of landscape. Finally, the study reflects on how regional and urban planners deal with environmental risk and which aspects should be monitored in order to adopt responsible and useful interventions.

Keywords: Assessment, landscape, risk, planning.

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3138 Sanitary Measures in Piggeries, Awareness and Risk Factors of African Swine Fever in Benue State, Nigeria

Authors: A. Asambe

Abstract:

A study was conducted to determine the level of compliance with sanitary measures in piggeries, and awareness and risk factors of African swine fever in Benue State, Nigeria. Questionnaires were distributed to 74 respondents consisting of piggery owners and attendants in different piggeries across 12 LGAs to collect data for this study. Sanitary measures in piggeries were observed to be generally very poor, though respondents admitted being aware of ASF. Piggeries located within a 1 km radius of a slaughter slab (OR=9.2, 95% CI - 3.0-28.8), piggeries near refuse dump sites (OR=3.0, 95% CI - 1.0-9.5) and piggeries where farm workers wear their work clothes outside of the piggery premises (OR=0.2, 95% CI - 0.1-0.7) showed higher chances of ASFV infection and were significantly associated (p < 0.0001), (p < 0.05) and (p < 0.01), and were identified as potential risk factors. The study concluded that pigs in Benue State are still at risk of an ASF outbreak. Proper sanitary and hygienic practices is advocated and emphasized in piggeries, while routine surveillance for ASFV antibodies in pigs in Benue State is strongly recommended to provide a reliable reference data base to plan for the prevention of any devastating ASF outbreak.

Keywords: African swine fever, awareness, piggery, risk factors, sanitary measures.

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3137 The Role and Importance of Genome Sequencing in Prediction of Cancer Risk

Authors: M. Sadeghi, H. Pezeshk, R. Tusserkani, A. Sharifi Zarchi, A. Malekpour, M. Foroughmand, S. Goliaei, M. Totonchi, N. Ansari–Pour

Abstract:

The role and relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the development of complex diseases such as cancer still remains a controversial issue. Determining the amount of variation explained by these factors needs experimental data and statistical models. These models are nevertheless based on the occurrence and accumulation of random mutational events during stem cell division, thus rendering cancer development a stochastic outcome. We demonstrate that not only individual genome sequencing is uninformative in determining cancer risk, but also assigning a unique genome sequence to any given individual (healthy or affected) is not meaningful. Current whole-genome sequencing approaches are therefore unlikely to realize the promise of personalized medicine. In conclusion, since genome sequence differs from cell to cell and changes over time, it seems that determining the risk factor of complex diseases based on genome sequence is somewhat unrealistic, and therefore, the resulting data are likely to be inherently uninformative.

Keywords: Cancer risk, extrinsic factors, genome sequencing, intrinsic factors.

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3136 Dynamics Simulation Approach in Analyzing Pension Expenditure

Authors: Hasimah Sapiri, Anton Abdulbasah Kamil, Razman Mat Tahar, Hanafi Tumin

Abstract:

Salary risk and demographic risk have been identified as main risks in analyzing pension expenditure particularly in Defined Benefit pension plan. Therefore, public pension plan in Malaysia is studied to analyze pension expenditure due to salary and demographic risk. Through the literature review and interview session with several officers in public sector, factors affecting pension expenditure are determined. Then, the inter-relationships between these factors are analyzed through causal loop diagram. The System Dynamics model is later developed using iThink software to show how demographic and salary changes affect the pension expenditure. Then, by using actual data, the impact of different policy scenarios on pension expenditure is analyzed. It is shown that dynamics simulation model of pension expenditure is useful to evaluate the impact of changes and policy decisions on risk particularly involving demographic and salary risk.

Keywords: Demographic and Salary risk, Pension Expenditure, Public Policy, System Dynamics.

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3135 A Socio-Technical Approach to Cyber-Risk Assessment

Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

Abstract:

Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: Attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cyber-security, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005.

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3134 Spatial Pattern and GIS-Based Model for Risk Assessment – A Case Study of Dusit District, Bangkok

Authors: Morakot Worachairungreung

Abstract:

The objectives of the research are to study patterns of fire location distribution and develop techniques of Geographic Information System application in fire risk assessment for fire planning and management. Fire risk assessment was based on two factors: the vulnerability factor such as building material types, building height, building density and capacity for mitigation factor such as accessibility by road, distance to fire station, distance to hydrants and it was obtained from four groups of stakeholders including firemen, city planners, local government officers and local residents. Factors obtained from all stakeholders were converted into Raster data of GIS and then were superimposed on the data in order to prepare fire risk map of the area showing level of fire risk ranging from high to low. The level of fire risk was obtained from weighted mean of each factor based on the stakeholders. Weighted mean for each factor was obtained by Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

Keywords: Fire Risk Assessment, Geographic Information System: GIS, Raster Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Analysis.

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3133 A Study of the Role of Perceived Risk and User Characteristics in Internet Purchase Intention

Authors: Ali Hajiha, Farhad Ghaffari, Nooshin Gholamali Tehrani

Abstract:

This study aims at investigating the empirical relationships between risk preference, internet preference, and internet knowledge which are known as user characteristics, in addition to perceived risk of the customers on the internet purchase intention. In order to test the relationships between the variables of model 174, a questionnaire was collected from the students with previous online experience. For the purpose of data analysis, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equation model (SEM) was used. Test results show that the perceived risk affects the internet purchase intention, and increase or decrease of perceived risk influences the purchase intention when the customer does the internet shopping. Other factors such as internet preference, knowledge of the internet, and risk preference affect the internet purchase intention.

Keywords: Perceived risk, Internet preference, Internetknowledge, Risk preference, Internet purchase intention

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3132 Consumer Adoption - Risk Factor of Mobile Banking Services

Authors: Esad Kadušić, Petar Bojović, Amela Žgalj

Abstract:

Mobile banking services present a unique growth opportunity for mobile operators in emerging markets, and have already made good progress in bringing financial services to the previously unbanked populations of many developing countries. The potential is amazing, but what about the risks? In the complex process of establishing a mobile banking business model, many kinds of risks and factors need to be monitored and well-managed. Risk identification is the first stage of risk management. Correct risk identification ensures risk management effectiveness. Keeping the risks low makes it possible to use the full potential of mobile banking and carry out the planned business strategy. The focus should be on adoption of consumers which is the main risk factor of mobile banking services.

Keywords: Consumer Adoption, Mobile Banking, Risk

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3131 WPRiMA Tool: Managing Risks in Web Projects

Authors: Thamer Al-Rousan, Shahida Sulaiman, Rosalina Abdul Salam

Abstract:

Risk management is an essential fraction of project management, which plays a significant role in project success. Many failures associated with Web projects are the consequences of poor awareness of the risks involved and lack of process models that can serve as a guideline for the development of Web based applications. To circumvent this problem, contemporary process models have been devised for the development of conventional software. This paper introduces the WPRiMA (Web Project Risk Management Assessment) as the tool, which is used to implement RIAP, the risk identification architecture pattern model, which focuses upon the data from the proprietor-s and vendor-s perspectives. The paper also illustrates how WPRiMA tool works and how it can be used to calculate the risk level for a given Web project, to generate recommendations in order to facilitate risk avoidance in a project, and to improve the prospects of early risk management.

Keywords: Architecture pattern model, risk factors, risk identification, web project, web project risk management assessment.

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3130 Risk and Uncertainty in Aviation: A Thorough Analysis of System Vulnerabilities

Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

Abstract:

Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: Control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty.

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3129 The Diet Adherence in Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors Patients in the North of Iran Based on the Mediterranean Diet Adherence

Authors: Marjan Mahdavi-Roshan, Arsalan Salari, Mahboobeh Gholipour, Moona Naghshbandi

Abstract:

Background and objectives: Before any nutritional intervention, it is necessary to have the prospect of eating habits of people with cardiovascular risk factors. In this study, we assessed the adherence of healthy diet based on Mediterranean dietary pattern and related factors in adults in the north of Iran. Methods: This study was conducted on 550 men and women with cardiovascular risk factors that referred to Heshmat hospital in Rasht, northern Iran. Information was collected by interview and reading medical history and measuring anthropometric indexes. The Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener was used for assessing dietary adherence, this screener was modified according to religious beliefs and culture of Iran. Results: The mean age of participants was 58±0.38 years. The mean of body mass index was 27±0.01 kg/m2, and the mean of waist circumference was 98±0.2 cm. The mean of dietary adherence was 5.76±0.07. 45% of participants had low adherence, and just 4% had suitable adherence. The mean of dietary adherence in men was significantly higher than women (p=0. 07). Participants in rural area and high educational participants insignificantly had an unsuitable dietary Adherence. There was no significant association between some cardiovascular disease risk factors and dietary adherence. Conclusion: Education to different group about dietary intake correction and using a Mediterranean dietary pattern that is similar to dietary intake in the north of Iran, for controlling cardiovascular disease is necessary.

Keywords: Dietary adherence, Mediterranean dietary pattern, cardiovascular disease, north of Iran.

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3128 Risk Quantification for Tunnel Excavation Process

Authors: J. Šejnoha, D. Jarušková, O. Špačková, E. Novotná

Abstract:

Construction of tunnels is connected with high uncertainty in the field of costs, construction period, safety and impact on surroundings. Risk management became therefore a common part of tunnel projects, especially after a set of fatal collapses occurred in 1990's. Such collapses are caused usually by combination of factors that can be divided into three main groups, i.e. unfavourable geological conditions, failures in the design and planning or failures in the execution. This paper suggests a procedure enabling quantification of the excavation risk related to extraordinary accidents using FTA and ETA tools. It will elaborate on a common process of risk analysis and enable the transfer of information and experience between particular tunnel construction projects. Further, it gives a guide for designers, management and other participants, how to deal with risk of such accidents and how to make qualified decisions based on a probabilistic approach.

Keywords: risk quantification, tunnel collapse, ETA, FTA, geotechnical risk

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3127 A Proposed Technique for Software Development Risks Identification by using FTA Model

Authors: Hatem A. Khater, A. Baith Mohamed, Sara M. Kamel

Abstract:

Software Development Risks Identification (SDRI), using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), is a proposed technique to identify not only the risk factors but also the causes of the appearance of the risk factors in software development life cycle. The method is based on analyzing the probable causes of software development failures before they become problems and adversely affect a project. It uses Fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine the probability of a particular system level failures that are defined by A Taxonomy for Sources of Software Development Risk to deduce failure analysis in which an undesired state of a system by using Boolean logic to combine a series of lower-level events. The major purpose of this paper is to use the probabilistic calculations of Fault Tree Analysis approach to determine all possible causes that lead to software development risk occurrence

Keywords: Software Development Risks Identification (SDRI), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Taxonomy for Software Development Risks (TSDR), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA).

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3126 The Checkout and Separation of Environmental Hazards of the Range Overlooking the Meshkin City

Authors: F. Esfandyari Darabad, Z. Samadi

Abstract:

Natural environments have always been affected by one of the most important natural hazards, which is called, the mass movements that cause instability. Identifying the unstable regions and separating them so as to detect and determine the risk of environmental factors is one of the important issues in mountainous areas development. In this study, the northwest of Sabalan hillsides overlooking the Meshkin city and the surrounding area of that have been delimitated, in order to analyze the range processes such as landslides and debris flows based on structural and geomorphological conditions, by means of using GIS. This area due to the high slope of the hillsides and height of the region and the poor localization of roads and so because of them destabilizing the ranges own an inappropriate situation. This study is done with the purpose of identifying the effective factors in the range motion and determining the areas with high potential for zoning these movements by using GIS. The results showed that the most common range movements in the area, are debris flows, rocks falling and landslides. The effective factors in each one of the mass movements, considering a small amount of weight for each factor, the weight map of each factor and finally, the map of risk zoning for the range movements were provided. Based on the zoning map resulted in the study area, the risking level of damaging has specified into the four zones of very high risk, high risk, medium risk, low risk, in which areas with very high and high risk are settled near the road and along the Khyav river and in the  mountainous district.

Keywords: Debris flow, environmental hazards, GIS, landslide.

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3125 Overview of Risk Management in Electricity Markets Using Financial Derivatives

Authors: Aparna Viswanath

Abstract:

Electricity spot prices are highly volatile under optimal generation capacity scenarios due to factors such as nonstorability of electricity, peak demand at certain periods, generator outages, fuel uncertainty for renewable energy generators, huge investments and time needed for generation capacity expansion etc. As a result market participants are exposed to price and volume risk, which has led to the development of risk management practices. This paper provides an overview of risk management practices by market participants in electricity markets using financial derivatives.

Keywords: Financial Derivatives, Forward, Futures, Options, Risk Management.

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