Search results for: simple linear regression analysis

Authors: Lianglin Xiong, Yun Zhao, Tao Jiang

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In this paper, we study the stability of n-dimensional linear fractional neutral differential equation with time delays. By using the Laplace transform, we introduce a characteristic equation for the above system with multiple time delays. We discover that if all roots of the characteristic equation have negative parts, then the equilibrium of the above linear system with fractional order is Lyapunov globally asymptotical stable if the equilibrium exist that is almost the same as that of classical differential equations. An example is provided to show the effectiveness of the approach presented in this paper.

Keywords: Fractional neutral differential equation, Laplace transform, characteristic equation.

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Authors: Faheem Ahmed, Fareed Ahmed, Yongheng Guo, Yong Yang

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This paper deals with a high-order accurate Runge Kutta Discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) method for the numerical solution of the wave equation, which is one of the simple case of a linear hyperbolic partial differential equation. Nodal DG method is used for a finite element space discretization in 'x' by discontinuous approximations. This method combines mainly two key ideas which are based on the finite volume and finite element methods. The physics of wave propagation being accounted for by means of Riemann problems and accuracy is obtained by means of high-order polynomial approximations within the elements. High order accurate Low Storage Explicit Runge Kutta (LSERK) method is used for temporal discretization in 't' that allows the method to be nonlinearly stable regardless of its accuracy. The resulting RKDG methods are stable and high-order accurate. The L1 ,L2 and L∞ error norm analysis shows that the scheme is highly accurate and effective. Hence, the method is well suited to achieve high order accurate solution for the scalar wave equation and other hyperbolic equations.

Keywords: Nodal Discontinuous Galerkin Method, RKDG, Scalar Wave Equation, LSERK

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Authors: M. De Filippo, J. S. Kuang

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In construction industry, reinforced concrete (RC) slabs represent fundamental elements of buildings and bridges. Different methods are available for analysing the structural behaviour of slabs. In the early ages of last century, the yield-line method has been proposed to attempt to solve such problem. Simple geometry problems could easily be solved by using traditional hand analyses which include plasticity theories. Nowadays, advanced finite element (FE) analyses have mainly found their way into applications of many engineering fields due to the wide range of geometries to which they can be applied. In such cases, the application of an elastic or a plastic constitutive model would completely change the approach of the analysis itself. Elastic methods are popular due to their easy applicability to automated computations. However, elastic analyses are limited since they do not consider any aspect of the material behaviour beyond its yield limit, which turns to be an essential aspect of RC structural performance. Furthermore, their applicability to non-linear analysis for modeling plastic behaviour gives very reliable results. Per contra, this type of analysis is computationally quite expensive, i.e. not well suited for solving daily engineering problems. In the past years, many researchers have worked on filling this gap between easy-to-implement elastic methods and computationally complex plastic analyses. This paper aims at proposing a numerical procedure, through which a pseudo-lower bound solution, not violating the yield criterion, is achieved. The advantages of moment distribution are taken into account, hence the increase in strength provided by plastic behaviour is considered. The lower bound solution is improved by detecting over-yielded moments, which are used to artificially rule the moment distribution among the rest of the non-yielded elements. The proposed technique obeys Nielsen’s yield criterion. The outcome of this analysis provides a simple, yet accurate, and non-time-consuming tool of predicting the lower-bound solution of the collapse load of RC slabs. By using this method, structural engineers can find the fracture patterns and ultimate load bearing capacity. The collapse triggering mechanism is found by detecting yield-lines. An application to the simple case of a square clamped slab is shown, and a good match was found with the exact values of collapse load.

Keywords: Computational mechanics, lower bound method, reinforced concrete slabs, yield-line.

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

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Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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Authors: Wei Zhang, Xin Zhao, Yi-Fan Zhu, Xin-Jian Zhang

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Kernel function, which allows the formulation of nonlinear variants of any algorithm that can be cast in terms of dot products, makes the Support Vector Machines (SVM) have been successfully applied in many fields, e.g. classification and regression. The importance of kernel has motivated many studies on its composition. It-s well-known that reproducing kernel (R.K) is a useful kernel function which possesses many properties, e.g. positive definiteness, reproducing property and composing complex R.K by simple operation. There are two popular ways to compute the R.K with explicit form. One is to construct and solve a specific differential equation with boundary value whose handicap is incapable of obtaining a unified form of R.K. The other is using a piecewise integral of the Green function associated with a differential operator L. The latter benefits the computation of a R.K with a unified explicit form and theoretical analysis, whereas there are relatively later studies and fewer practical computations. In this paper, a new algorithm for computing a R.K is presented. It can obtain the unified explicit form of R.K in general reproducing kernel Hilbert space. It avoids constructing and solving the complex differential equations manually and benefits an automatic, flexible and rigorous computation for more general RKHS. In order to validate that the R.K computed by the algorithm can be used in SVM well, some illustrative examples and a comparison between R.K and Gaussian kernel (RBF) in support vector regression are presented. The result shows that the performance of R.K is close or slightly superior to that of RBF.

Keywords: admissible support vector kernel, reproducing kernel, reproducing kernel Hilbert space, Green function, support vectorregression

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Authors: E. Farshidi

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This paper presents a new general technique for analysis of noise in static log-domain translinear circuits. It is demonstrated that employing this technique, leads to a general, simple and routine method of the noise analysis. The circuit has been simulated by HSPICE. The simulation results are seen to conform to the theoretical analysis and shows benefits of the proposed circuit.

Keywords: Noise analysis, log-domain, static, dynamic, translinear loop, companding.

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Authors: Khaoula Hidouri, Ali Benhmidene, Bechir Chouachi

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The purification of brackish seawater becomes a necessity and not a choice against demographic and industrial growth especially in third world countries. Two models can be used in this work: simple solar still and simple solar still coupled with a heat pump. In this research, the productivity of water by Simple Solar Distiller (SSD) and Simple Solar Distiller Hybrid Heat Pump (SSDHP) was determined by the orientation, the use of heat pump, the simple or double glass cover. The productivity can exceed 1.2 L/m²h for the SSDHP and 0.5 L/m²h for SSD model. The result of the global efficiency is determined for two models SSD and SSDHP give respectively 30%, 50%. The internal efficiency attained 35% for SSD and 60% of the SSDHP models. Convective heat coefficient can be determined by attained 2.5 W/m²°C and 0.5 W/m²°C respectively for SSDHP and SSD models.

Keywords: Productivity, efficiency, convective heat coefficient, SSD model, SSDHP model.

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Authors: Changchun Shen, Shouming Zhong

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This paper investigates the problem of absolute stability and robust stability of a class of Lur-e systems with neutral type and time-varying delays. By using Lyapunov direct method and linear matrix inequality technique, new delay-dependent stability criteria are obtained and formulated in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) which are easy to check the stability of the considered systems. To obtain less conservative stability conditions, an operator is defined to construct the Lyapunov functional. Also, the free weighting matrices approach combining a matrix inequality technique is used to reduce the entailed conservativeness. Numerical examples are given to indicate significant improvements over some existing results.

Keywords: Lur'e system, linear matrix inequalities, Lyapunov, stability.

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Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone

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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.

Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, Gain.

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Authors: A. Saghaei, R. Ghasemi

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Through 1980s, management accounting researchers described the increasing irrelevance of traditional control and performance measurement systems. The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a critical business tool for a lot of organizations. It is a performance measurement system which translates mission and strategy into objectives. Strategy map approach is a development variant of BSC in which some necessary causal relations must be established. To recognize these relations, experts usually use experience. It is also possible to utilize regression for the same purpose. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), which is one of the most powerful methods of multivariate data analysis, obtains more appropriate results than traditional methods such as regression. In the present paper, we propose SEM for the first time to identify the relations between objectives in the strategy map, and a test to measure the importance of relations. In SEM, factor analysis and test of hypotheses are done in the same analysis. SEM is known to be better than other techniques at supporting analysis and reporting. Our approach provides a framework which permits the experts to design the strategy map by applying a comprehensive and scientific method together with their experience. Therefore this scheme is a more reliable method in comparison with the previously established methods.

Keywords: BSC, SEM, Strategy map.

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Authors: Hui-Min Ting, Tsair-Fwu Lee, Ming-Yuan Cho, Pei-Ju Chao, Chun-Ming Chang, Long-Chang Chen, Fu-Min Fang

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To evaluate the ability to predict xerostomia after radiotherapy, we constructed and compared neural network and logistic regression models. In this study, 61 patients who completed a questionnaire about their quality of life (QoL) before and after a full course of radiation therapy were included. Based on this questionnaire, some statistical data about the condition of the patients’ salivary glands were obtained, and these subjects were included as the inputs of the neural network and logistic regression models in order to predict the probability of xerostomia. Seven variables were then selected from the statistical data according to Cramer’s V and point-biserial correlation values and were trained by each model to obtain the respective outputs which were 0.88 and 0.89 for AUC, 9.20 and 7.65 for SSE, and 13.7% and 19.0% for MAPE, respectively. These parameters demonstrate that both neural network and logistic regression methods are effective for predicting conditions of parotid glands.

Keywords: NPC, ANN, logistic regression, xerostomia.

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Authors: Zia R. Tahir, P. Mandal

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A numerical study is presented on buckling and post buckling behaviour of laminated carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP) thin-walled cylindrical shells under axial compression using asymmetric meshing technique (AMT). Asymmetric meshing technique is a perturbation technique to introduce disturbance without changing geometry, boundary conditions or loading conditions. Asymmetric meshing affects predicted buckling load, buckling mode shape and post-buckling behaviour. Linear (eigenvalue) and nonlinear (Riks) analyses have been performed to study the effect of asymmetric meshing in the form of a patch on buckling behaviour. The reduction in the buckling load using Asymmetric meshing technique was observed to be about 15%. An isolated dimple formed near the bifurcation point and the size of which increased to reach a stable state in the post-buckling region. The load-displacement curve behaviour applying asymmetric meshing is quite similar to the curve obtained using initial geometric imperfection in the shell model.

Keywords: CFRP Composite Cylindrical Shell, Finite Element Analysis, Perturbation Technique, Asymmetric Meshing Technique, Linear Eigenvalue analysis, Non-linear Riks Analysis

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Authors: A. Zare Bazghaleh, M. R. Naghashan, H. Mahmoudimanesh, M. R. Meshkatoddini

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Linear induction motors are used in various industries but they have some specific phenomena which are the causes for some problems. The most important phenomenon is called end effect. End effect decreases efficiency, power factor and output force and unbalances the phase currents. This phenomenon is more important in medium and high speeds machines. In this paper a factor, EEF , is obtained by an accurate equivalent circuit model, to determine the end effect intensity. In this way, all of effective design parameters on end effect is described. Accuracy of this equivalent circuit model is evaluated by two dimensional finite-element analysis using ANSYS. The results show the accuracy of the equivalent circuit model.

Keywords: Linear induction motor, end effect, equivalent circuitmodel, finite-element method.

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Authors: A. Nikkar, M. Mighani

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In this study, a new reliable technique use to handle the foam drainage equation. This new method is resulted from VIM by a simple modification that is Reconstruction of Variational Iteration Method (RVIM). The drainage of liquid foams involves the interplay of gravity, surface tension, and viscous forces. Foaming occurs in many distillation and absorption processes. Results are compared with those of Adomian’s decomposition method (ADM).The comparisons show that the Reconstruction of Variational Iteration Method is very effective and overcome the difficulty of traditional methods and quite accurate to systems of non-linear partial differential equations.

Keywords: Reconstruction of Variational Iteration Method (RVIM), Foam drainage, nonlinear partial differential equation.

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Authors: Okolo Chimaobi Valentine

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Commercial banks in Nigeria adopted many strategies to attract fresh deposits including the use of high deposit rate. However, pricing of banking services moved in favor of the banks at the expense of customers, resulting in their seeking other investment alternatives rather than saving their money in the bank. Both deposit and lending rates were greatly influenced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) decision on interest rate. Therefore, commercial bank effort to attract deposits via manipulation of her rates was greatly limited, otherwise the banks will be giving out more than it earned. The study aimed at examining the relationship between interest rate and fixed fund deposit of commercial banks, how policy-controlled interest rate affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit The researcher employed ordinary least square technique, using, multiple linear regression, unrestricted vector auto-regression, correlation matrix test, granger causality and impulse response graph in the analysis. Commercial bank’s interest rates affected commercial bank’s fixed fund deposit significantly while policy-controlled interest rate did not significantly transmit through the commercial bank’s interest rates to affect fixed fund deposit. While commercial banks seek creative ways to expand their fixed fund deposit, policy authorities in Nigeria should better coordinate interest rate fluctuation and induce competition in the entire financial sector.

Keywords: Commercial bank, fixed fund deposit, fluctuation effects, interest rate.

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Authors: Abbas Vahedian, Rijun Shrestha, Keith Crews

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In recent years, fibre reinforced polymers as applications of strengthening materials have received significant attention by civil engineers and environmentalists because of their excellent characteristics. Currently, these composites have become a mainstream technology for strengthening of infrastructures such as steel, concrete and more recently, timber and masonry structures. However, debonding is identified as the main problem which limit the full utilisation of the FRP material. In this paper, a preliminary analysis of factors affecting bond strength of FRP-to-concrete and timber bonded interface has been conducted. A novel theoretical method through regression analysis has been established to evaluate these factors. Results of proposed model are then assessed with results of pull-out tests and satisfactory comparisons are achieved between measured failure loads (R² = 0.83, P < 0.0001) and the predicted loads (R² = 0.78, P < 0.0001).

Keywords: Debonding, FRP, pull-out test, stepwise regression analysis.

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Authors: R. Simutis, V. Galvanauskas, D. Levisauskas, J. Repsyte

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This paper proposes a bioprocess optimization procedure based on Relevance Vector Regression models and evolutionary programming technique. Relevance Vector Regression scheme allows developing a compact and stable data-based process model avoiding time-consuming modeling expenses. The model building and process optimization procedure could be done in a half-automated way and repeated after every new cultivation run. The proposed technique was tested in a simulated mammalian cell cultivation process. The obtained results are promising and could be attractive for optimization of industrial bioprocesses.

Keywords: Bioprocess optimization, Evolutionary programming, Relevance Vector Regression.

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Authors: Chau-Kuang Chen, John Hughes, Jr., A. Dexter Samuels

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The prediction models for the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE) Steps 1 and 2 performances were constructed by the Monte Carlo simulation modeling approach via linear regression. The purpose of this study was to build robust simulation models to accurately identify the most important predictors and yield the valid range estimations of the Steps 1 and 2 scores. The application of simulation modeling approach was deemed an effective way in predicting student performances on licensure examinations. Also, sensitivity analysis (a/k/a what-if analysis) in the simulation models was used to predict the magnitudes of Steps 1 and 2 affected by changes in the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Basic Science Subject Board scores. In addition, the study results indicated that the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) Verbal Reasoning score and Step 1 score were significant predictors of the Step 2 performance. Hence, institutions could screen qualified student applicants for interviews and document the effectiveness of basic science education program based on the simulation results.

Keywords: Prediction Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Simulation Method, USMLE.

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Authors: Alireza Vafaei Sadr, Vida Abedi, Jiang Li, Ramin Zand

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Missing data is a common challenge in medical research and can lead to biased or incomplete results. When the data bias leaks into models, it further exacerbates health disparities; biased algorithms can lead to misclassification and reduced resource allocation and monitoring as part of prevention strategies for certain minorities and vulnerable segments of patient populations, which in turn further reduce data footprint from the same population – thus, a vicious cycle. This study compares the performance of six imputation techniques grouped into Linear and Non-Linear models, on two different real-world electronic health records (EHRs) datasets, representing 17864 patient records. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) are used as performance metrics, and the results show that the Linear models outperformed the Non-Linear models in terms of both metrics. These results suggest that sometimes Linear models might be an optimal choice for imputation in laboratory variables in terms of imputation efficiency and uncertainty of predicted values.

Keywords: EHR, Machine Learning, imputation, laboratory variables, algorithmic bias.

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Authors: N. Parandin, M. A. Fariborzi Araghi

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in this paper, we propose a numerical method for the approximate solution of fuzzy Fredholm functional integral equations of the second kind by using an iterative interpolation. For this purpose, we convert the linear fuzzy Fredholm integral equations to a crisp linear system of integral equations. The proposed method is illustrated by some fuzzy integral equations in numerical examples.

Keywords: Fuzzy function integral equations, Iterative method, Linear systems, Parametric form of fuzzy number.

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Authors: Ahmed Bensenouci

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This paper provides the design steps of a robust Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI) based iterative multivariable PID controller whose duty is to drive a sample power system that comprises a synchronous generator connected to a large network via a step-up transformer and a transmission line. The generator is equipped with two control-loops, namely, the speed/power (governor) and voltage (exciter). Both loops are lumped in one where the error in the terminal voltage and output active power represent the controller inputs and the generator-exciter voltage and governor-valve position represent its outputs. Multivariable PID is considered here because of its wide use in the industry, simple structure and easy implementation. It is also preferred in plants of higher order that cannot be reduced to lower ones. To improve its robustness to variation in the controlled variables, H∞-norm of the system transfer function is used. To show the effectiveness of the controller, divers tests, namely, step/tracking in the controlled variables, and variation in plant parameters, are applied. A comparative study between the proposed controller and a robust H∞ LMI-based output feedback is given by its robustness to disturbance rejection. From the simulation results, the iterative multivariable PID shows superiority.

Keywords: Linear matrix inequality, power system, robust iterative PID, robust output feedback control

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-ofsample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: Financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction.

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Authors: Guangbin Wang, Xue Li

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In this paper, we present parallel alternating two-stage methods for solving linear system Ax=b, where A is a symmetric positive definite matrix. And we give some convergence results of these methods for nonsingular linear system.

Keywords: alternating two-stage, convergence, linear system, parallel.

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Authors: Isaac Kofi Mensah

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The manual system of voting has been the most widely used system of electing representatives around the globe, particularly in Africa. Due to the known numerous problems and challenges associated with the manual system of voting, many countries are migrating to the electronic voting system as a suitable and credible means of electing representatives over the manual paper-based system. This research paper therefore investigated the factors influencing adoption and use of an electronic voting system in Ghana. A total of 400 Questionnaire Instruments (QI) were administered to potential respondents in Ghana, of which 387 responded representing a response rate of 96.75%. The Technology Acceptance Model was used as the theoretical framework for the study. The research model was tested using a simple linear regression analysis with SPSS. A little of over 71.1% of the respondents recommended the Electoral Commission (EC) of Ghana to adopt an electronic voting system in the conduct of public elections in Ghana. The results indicated that all the six predictors such as perceived usefulness (PU), perceived ease of use (PEOU), perceived free and fair elections (PFFF), perceived credible elections (PCE), perceived system integrity (PSI) and citizens trust in the election management body (CTEM) were all positively significant in predicting the readiness of citizens to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. However, jointly, the hypotheses tested revealed that apart from Perceived Free and Fair Elections and Perceived Credible and Transparent Elections, all the other factors such as PU, Perceived System Integrity and Security and Citizen Trust in the Election Management Body were found to be significant predictors of the Willingness of Ghanaians to use an electronic voting system. All the six factors considered in this study jointly account for about 53.1% of the reasons determining the readiness to adopt and use an electronic voting system in Ghana. The implications of this research finding on elections in Ghana are discussed.

Keywords: Credible elections, democracy, Election Management Body (EMB), electronic voting, Ghana, Technology Acceptance Model (TAM).

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Authors: Jörg Linde, Ekaterina Buyko, Robert Altwasser, Udo Hahn, Reinhard Guthke

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Reverse engineering of full-genomic interaction networks based on compendia of expression data has been successfully applied for a number of model organisms. This study adapts these approaches for an important non-model organism: The major human fungal pathogen Candida albicans. During the infection process, the pathogen can adapt to a wide range of environmental niches and reversibly changes its growth form. Given the importance of these processes, it is important to know how they are regulated. This study presents a reverse engineering strategy able to infer fullgenomic interaction networks for C. albicans based on a linear regression, utilizing the sparseness criterion (LASSO). To overcome the limited amount of expression data and small number of known interactions, we utilize different prior-knowledge sources guiding the network inference to a knowledge driven solution. Since, no database of known interactions for C. albicans exists, we use a textmining system which utilizes full-text research papers to identify known regulatory interactions. By comparing with these known regulatory interactions, we find an optimal value for global modelling parameters weighting the influence of the sparseness criterion and the prior-knowledge. Furthermore, we show that soft integration of prior-knowledge additionally improves the performance. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to state of the art network inference approaches.

Keywords: Pathogen, network inference, text-mining, Candida albicans, LASSO, mutual information, reverse engineering, linear regression, modelling.

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Authors: S. B. Rushayati, R. Meilani, R. Hermawan

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A biosphere reserve is developed to create harmony amongst economic development, community development, and environmental protection, through partnership between human and nature. Giam Siak Kecil Bukit Batu Biosphere Reserve (GSKBB BR) in Riau Province, Indonesia, is unique in that it has peat soil dominating the area, many springs essential for human livelihood, high biodiversity. Furthermore, it is the only biosphere reserve covering privately managed production forest areas. In this research, we aimed at analyzing the threat of deforestation and forest fire, and the potential of CO2 emission at GSKBB BR. We used Landsat image, arcView software, and ERDAS IMAGINE 8.5 Software to conduct spatial analysis of land cover and land use changes, calculated CO2 emission based on emission potential from each land cover and land use type, and exercised simple linear regression to demonstrate the relation between CO2 emission potential and deforestation. The result showed that, beside in the buffer zone and transition area, deforestation also occurred in the core area. Spatial analysis of land cover and land use changes from years 2010, 2012, and 2014 revealed that there were changes of land cover and land use from natural forest and industrial plantation forest to other land use types, such as garden, mixed garden, settlement, paddy fields, burnt areas, and dry agricultural land. Deforestation in core area, particularly at the Giam Siak Kecil Wildlife Reserve and Bukit Batu Wildlife Reserve, occurred in the form of changes from natural forest in to garden, mixed garden, shrubs, swamp shrubs, dry agricultural land, open area, and burnt area. In the buffer zone and transition area, changes also happened, what once swamp forest changed into garden, mixed garden, open area, shrubs, swamp shrubs, and dry agricultural land. Spatial analysis on land cover and land use changes indicated that deforestation rate in the biosphere reserve from 2010 to 2014 had reached 16 119 ha/year. Beside deforestation, threat toward the biosphere reserve area also came from forest fire. The occurrence of forest fire in 2014 had burned 101 723 ha of the area, in which 9 355 ha of core area, and 92 368 ha of buffer zone and transition area. Deforestation and forest fire had increased CO2 emission as much as 24 903 855 ton/year.

Keywords: Biosphere reserve, CO2 emission, deforestation, forest fire.

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Authors: Ali Anaissi, Paul J. Kennedy, Madhu Goyal

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Analysis and visualization of microarraydata is veryassistantfor biologists and clinicians in the field of diagnosis and treatment of patients. It allows Clinicians to better understand the structure of microarray and facilitates understanding gene expression in cells. However, microarray dataset is a complex data set and has thousands of features and a very small number of observations. This very high dimensional data set often contains some noise, non-useful information and a small number of relevant features for disease or genotype. This paper proposes a non-linear dimensionality reduction algorithm Local Principal Component (LPC) which aims to maps high dimensional data to a lower dimensional space. The reduced data represents the most important variables underlying the original data. Experimental results and comparisons are presented to show the quality of the proposed algorithm. Moreover, experiments also show how this algorithm reduces high dimensional data whilst preserving the neighbourhoods of the points in the low dimensional space as in the high dimensional space.

Keywords: Linear Dimension Reduction, Non-Linear Dimension Reduction, Principal Component Analysis, Biologists.

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Authors: J. Nesleha, H. Florianova

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The goal of the study is to provide results of a conducted study devoted to financial literacy in the Czech Republic and to introduce a project related to financial education in the Czech Republic. Financial education has become an important part of education in the country, yet it is still neglected on the lowest level of formal education–primary schools. The project is based on investigation of financial literacy on primary schools in the Czech Republic. Consequently, the authors aim to formulate possible amendments related to this type of education. The gained dataset is intended to be used for analysis concerning financial education in the Czech Republic. With regard to used methods, the most important one is regression analysis for disclosure of predictors causing different levels of financial literacy. Furthermore, comparison of different groups is planned, for which t-tests are intended to be used. The study also employs descriptive statistics to introduce basic relationship in the data file.

Keywords: Czech Republic, financial education, financial literacy, primary school, regression analysis.

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Authors: Vasana M. Don, Eldad J. Avital, Fariborz Motallebi

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Supersonic open and closed cavity flows are investigated experimentally and computationally. Free stream Mach number of two is set. Schlieren imaging is used to visualise the flow behaviour showing stark differences between open and closed. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is used to simulate open cavity of flow with aspect ratio of 4. A rear wall treatment is implemented in order to pursue a simple passive control approach. Good qualitative agreement is achieved between the experimental flow visualisation and the CFD in terms of the expansion-shock waves system. The cavity oscillations are shown to be dominated by the first and third Rossister modes combining to high fluctuations of non-linear nature above the cavity rear edge. A simple rear wall treatment in terms of a hole shows mixed effect on the flow oscillations, RMS contours, and time history density fluctuations are given and analysed.

Keywords: Supersonic, Schlieren, open-cavity, flow simulation, passive control.

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Authors: Petr Gurný

Abstract:

One of the most important tasks in the risk management is the correct determination of probability of default (PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of determination of financial institution’s PD according to the creditscoring models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts. The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one. The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution, while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.

Keywords: Credit-scoring Models, Multidimensional Subordinated Lévy Model, Probability of Default.

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