Search results for: damage risk

Authors: Manel Mosbahi

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The risk of water erosion is one of the main environmental concerns in the southern Mediterranean regions. Thus, quantification of soil loss is an important issue for soil and water conservation managers. The objective of this paper is to examine the applicability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in The Sarrath river catchment, North of Tunisia, and to identify the most vulnerable areas in order to help manager implement an effective management program. The spatial analysis of the results shows that 7 % of the catchment experiences very high erosion risk, in need for suitable conservation measures to be adopted on a priority basis. The spatial distribution of erosion risk classes estimated 3% high, 5,4% tolerable, and 84,6% low. Among the 27 delineated subcatchments only 4 sub-catchments are found to be under high and very high soil loss group, two sub-catchments fell under moderate soil loss group, whereas other sub-catchments are under low soil loss group.

Keywords: Critical source areas, Erosion risk, SWAT model.

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Authors: Kevin Fong-Rey Liu, Ken Yeh, Cheng-Wu Chen, Han-Hsi Liang

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This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks (BBN) as a higher level of health risk assessment for a dumping site of lead battery smelter factory. On the basis of the epidemiological studies, the actual hospital attendance records and expert experiences, the BBN is capable of capturing the probabilistic relationships between the hazardous substances and their adverse health effects, and accordingly inferring the morbidity of the adverse health effects. The provision of the morbidity rates of the related diseases is more informative and can alleviate the drawbacks of conventional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian belief networks, lead battery smelter factory, health risk assessment.

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Authors: Leandi Steenkamp

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The sectional title industry has been a part of the property landscape in South Africa for almost half a century, and plays a significant role in addressing the housing problem in the country. Stakeholders such as owners and investors in sectional title property are in most cases not directly involved in the management thereof, and place reliance on the audited annual financial statements of bodies corporate for decision-making purposes. Although the industry seems to be highly regulated, the legislation regarding accounting and auditing of sectional title is vague and ambiguous. Furthermore, there are no industry-specific auditing and accounting standards to guide accounting and auditing practitioners in performing their work and industry financial benchmarks are not readily available. In addition, financial pressure on sectional title schemes is often very high due to the fact that some owners exercise unrealistic pressure to keep monthly levies as low as possible. All these factors have an impact on the business risk as well as audit risk of bodies corporate. Very little academic research has been undertaken on the sectional title industry in South Africa from an accounting and auditing perspective. The aim of this paper is threefold: Firstly, to discuss the findings of a literature review on uncertainties, ambiguity and confusing aspects in current legislation regarding the audit of a sectional title property that may cause or increase audit and business risk. Secondly, empirical findings of risk-related aspects from the results of interviews with three groups of body corporate role-players will be discussed. The role-players were body corporate trustee chairpersons, body corporate managing agents and accounting and auditing practitioners of bodies corporate. Specific reference will be made to business risk and audit risk. Thirdly, practical recommendations will be made on possibilities of closing the audit expectation gap, and further research opportunities in this regard will be discussed.

Keywords: Assurance, audit, audit risk, body corporate, corporate governance, sectional title.

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Authors: Junwon Seo, Bipin Adhikari, Euiseok Jeong

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This paper is intended to evaluate the structural performance of welded electronic road signs under various damage scenarios (DSs) using a finite element (FE) model calibrated with full-scale ultimate load testing results. The tested electronic road sign specimen was built with a back skin made of 5052 aluminum and two channels and a frame made of 6061 aluminum, where the back skin was connected to the frame by welding. The size of the tested specimen was 1.52 m long, 1.43 m wide, and 0.28 m deep. An actuator applied vertical loads at the center of the back skin of the specimen, resulting in a displacement of 158.7 mm and an ultimate load of 153.46 kN. Using these testing data, generation and calibration of a FE model of the tested specimen were executed in ABAQUS, indicating that the difference in the ultimate load between the calibrated model simulation and full-scale testing was only 3.32%. Then, six different DSs were simulated where the areas of the welded connection in the calibrated model were diminished for the DSs. It was found that the corners at the back skin-frame joint were prone to connection failure for all the DSs, and failure of the back skin-frame connection occurred remarkably from the distant edges.

Keywords: Computational analysis, damage scenarios, electronic road signs, finite element, welded connections.

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Authors: Alan Walsh, Peter Walker, Michael Ellis

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There is a real danger that both practitioners and researchers considering risks associated with megaprojects ignore or underestimate the impacts of cultural risk. The paper investigates the potential impacts of a failure to achieve cultural unity between the principal actors executing a megaproject. The principle relationships include the relationships between the principle Contractors and the project stakeholders or the project stakeholders and their principle advisors, Western Consultants. This study confirms that cultural dissonance between these parties can delay or disrupt the megaproject execution and examines why cultural issues should be prioritized as a significant risk factor in megaproject delivery. This paper addresses the practical impacts and potential mitigation measures, which may reduce cultural dissonance for a megaproject's delivery. This information is retrieved from on-going case studies in live infrastructure megaprojects in Europe and the Middle East's GCC states, from Western Consultants' perspective. The collaborating researchers each have at least 30 years of construction experience and are engaged in architecture, project management and contracts management, dealing with megaprojects in Europe or the GCC. After examining the cultural interfaces they have observed during the execution of megaprojects, they conclude that globally, culture significantly influences their efficient delivery. The study finds that cultural risk is ever-present, where different nationalities co-manage megaprojects and that cultural conflict poses a real threat to the timely delivery of megaprojects. The study indicates that the higher the cultural distance between the principal actors, the more pronounced the risk, with the risk of cultural dissonance more prominent in GCC megaprojects. The findings support a more culturally aware and cohesive team approach and recommend cross-cultural training to mitigate the effects of cultural disparity.

Keywords: Cultural risk underestimation, cultural distance, megaproject characteristics, megaproject execution.

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Authors: F. I. Belheouane, M. Bensaibi

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The seismic feedback experiences in Algeria have shown higher percentage of damages for non-code conforming reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. Furthermore, the vulnerability of these buildings was further aggravated due to presence of many factors (e.g. weak the seismic capacity of these buildings, shorts columns, Pounding effect, etc.). Consequently Seismic risk assessments were carried out on populations of buildings to identify the buildings most likely to undergo losses during an earthquake. The results of such studies are important in the mitigation of losses under future seismic events as they allow strengthening intervention and disaster management plans to be drawn up. Within this paper, the state of the existing structures is assessed using "the vulnerability index" method. This method allows the classification of RC constructions taking into account both, structural and non structural parameters, considered to be ones of the main parameters governing the vulnerability of the structure. Based on seismic feedback from past earthquakes DPM (damage probability matrices) were developed too.

Keywords: Seismic vulnerability, Reinforced concrete buildings, Earthquake, DPM, Algeria.

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Authors: Abuzar.Abazari, Saeed. Ziaei-Rad, Hoseein. Dalayeli

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Collision is considered as a time-depended nonlinear dynamic phenomenon. The majority of researchers have focused on deriving the resultant damage of the ship collisions via analytical, experimental, and finite element methods.In this paper, first, the force-penetration curve of a head collision on a container ship with rigid barrier based on Yang and Pedersen-s methods for internal mechanic section is studied. Next, the obtained results from different analytical methods are compared with each others. Then, through a simulation of the container ship collision in Ansys Ls-Dyna, results from finite element approach are compared with analytical methods and the source of errors is discussed. Finally, the effects of parameters such as velocity, and angle of collision on the forcepenetration curve are investigated.

Keywords: Ship collision, Force-penetration curve, Damage

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Authors: Jobin Varghese, V. M. Akhil, P. K. Rajendrakumar, K. S. Sivanandan

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The major contributor to the human locomotion is the knee flexion and extension. During heel strike, a huge amount of energy is transmitted through the leg towards knee joint, which in fact is damped at heel and leg muscles. During high shocks, although it is damped to a certain extent, the balance force transmits towards knee joint which could damage the knee. Due to the vital function of the knee joint, it should be protected against damage due to additional load acting on it. This work concentrates on the development of spring mass damper system which exactly replicates the stiffness at the heel and muscles and the objective function is optimized to minimize the force acting at the knee joint. Further, the data collected using force plate are put into the model to verify its integrity and are found to be in good agreement.

Keywords: Spring, mass, damper, impact, knee joint.

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Authors: G. La Scalia, M. Enea, R. Micale, O. Corona, L. Settanni

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The quality and condition of perishable products delivered to the market and their subsequent selling prices are directly affected by the care taken during harvesting and handling. Mechanical injury, in fact, occurs at all stages, from pre-harvest operations through post-harvest handling, packing and transport to the market. The main implications of this damage are the reduction of the product’s quality and economical losses related to the shelf life diminution. For most perishable products, the shelf life is relatively short and it is typically dictated by microbial growth related to the application of dynamic and static loads during transportation. This paper presents the correlation between vibration levels and microbiological growth on strawberries and woodland strawberries and detects the presence of volatile organic compounds (VOC) in order to develop an intelligent logistic unit capable of monitoring VOCs using a specific sensor system. Fresh fruits were exposed to vibrations by means of a vibrating table in a temperature-controlled environment. Microbiological analyses were conducted on samples, taken at different positions along the column of the crates. The values obtained were compared with control samples not exposed to vibrations and the results show that different positions along the column influence the development of bacteria, yeasts and filamentous fungi.

Keywords: Microbiological analysis, shelf life, transport damage, volatile organic compounds.

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Authors: Ali Fadhil Naser, Wang Zonglin

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The main objectives of this study are to inspect and identify any damage of jaimusi highway prestressed concrete bridge after repair and strengthening of damaged structural members and to evaluate the performance of the bridge structural members by adopting static load test. Inspection program after repair and strengthening includes identifying and evaluating the structural members of bridge such as T-shape cantilever structure, hanging beams, corbels, external tendons, anchor beams, sticking steel plate, and piers. The results of inspection show that the overall state of the bridge structural member after repair and strengthening is good. The results of rebound test of concrete strength show that the average strength of concrete is 46.31Mpa. Whereas, the average value of concrete strength of anchor beam is 49.82Mpa. According to the results of static load test, the experimental values are less than theoretical values of internal forces, deflection, and strain, indicating that the stiffness of the experimental structure, overall deformation and integrity satisfy the designed standard and the working performance is good, and the undertaking capacity has a certain surplus. There is not visible change in the length and width of cracks and there are not new cracks under experimental load.

Keywords: Jiamusi Bridge, Damage inspection, deflection, strain.

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Authors: Ali F. Alta'ee, Ong S. Hun, Sima Sh. Alian, Ismail M. Saaid

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Permeability reduction induced by asphaltene precipitation during gas injection is one of the serious problems in the oil industry. This problem can lead to formation damage and decrease the oil production rate. In this work, Malaysian light oil sample has been used to investigate the effect CO2 injection and Water Alternating Gas (WAG) injection on permeability reduction. In this work, dynamic core flooding experiments were conducted to study the effect of CO2 and WAG injection on the amount of asphaltene precipitated. Core properties after displacement were inspected for any permeability reduction to study the effect of asphaltene precipitation on rock properties. The results showed that WAG injection gave less asphaltene precipitation and formation damage compared to CO2 injection. The study suggested that WAG injection can be one of the important factors of managing asphaltene precipitation.

Keywords: Asphaltene Precipitation, Permeability Reduction, CO2 Injection, WAG Injection.

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Authors: Mahdi Fakoor, Seyed Mohammad Navid Ghoreishi

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Investigation of fracture of wood components can prevent from catastrophic failures. Created fracture process zone (FPZ) in crack tip vicinity has important effect on failure of cracked composite materials. In this paper, a failure criterion for fracture investigation of cracked wood specimens under mixed mode I/II loading is presented. This criterion is based on maximum strain energy release rate and material nonlinearity in the vicinity of crack tip due to presence of microcracks. Verification of results with available experimental data proves the coincidence of the proposed criterion with the nature of fracture of wood. To simplify the estimation of nonlinear properties of FPZ, a damage factor is also introduced for engineering and application purposes.

Keywords: Fracture criterion, mixed mode loading, damage zone, microcracks.

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Authors: M. Sadeghi, H. Pezeshk, R. Tusserkani, A. Sharifi Zarchi, A. Malekpour, M. Foroughmand, S. Goliaei, M. Totonchi, N. Ansari–Pour

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The role and relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the development of complex diseases such as cancer still remains a controversial issue. Determining the amount of variation explained by these factors needs experimental data and statistical models. These models are nevertheless based on the occurrence and accumulation of random mutational events during stem cell division, thus rendering cancer development a stochastic outcome. We demonstrate that not only individual genome sequencing is uninformative in determining cancer risk, but also assigning a unique genome sequence to any given individual (healthy or affected) is not meaningful. Current whole-genome sequencing approaches are therefore unlikely to realize the promise of personalized medicine. In conclusion, since genome sequence differs from cell to cell and changes over time, it seems that determining the risk factor of complex diseases based on genome sequence is somewhat unrealistic, and therefore, the resulting data are likely to be inherently uninformative.

Keywords: Cancer risk, extrinsic factors, genome sequencing, intrinsic factors.

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Authors: Bishnupriya Sahoo, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, coastal vulnerability index, power dissipation index, tropical cyclone.

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Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

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Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: Calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safe navigation of ships.

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Authors: N. Boutra, N. Ravot, J. Benoit, O. Picon

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Submarine power cables used for offshore wind farms electric energy distribution and transmission are subject to numerous threats. Some of the risks are associated with transport, installation and operating in harsh marine environment. This paper describes the feasibility of an electromagnetic low frequency sensing technique for submarine power cable failure prediction. The impact of a structural damage shape and material variability on the induced electric field is evaluated. The analysis is performed by modeling the cable using the finite element method, we use sensitivity analysis in order to identify the main damage characteristics affecting electric field variation. Lastly, we discuss the results obtained.

Keywords: Electromagnetism, defect, finite element method, sensitivity analysis, submarine power cables.

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Authors: A. Sopharak, B. Uyyanonvara, S. Barman

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Microaneurysm is a key indicator of diabetic retinopathy that can potentially cause damage to retina. Early detection and automatic quantification are the keys to prevent further damage. In this paper, which focuses on automatic microaneurysm detection in images acquired through non-dilated pupils, we present a series of experiments on feature selection and automatic microaneurysm pixel classification. We found that the best feature set is a combination of 10 features: the pixel-s intensity of shade corrected image, the pixel hue, the standard deviation of shade corrected image, DoG4, the area of the candidate MA, the perimeter of the candidate MA, the eccentricity of the candidate MA, the circularity of the candidate MA, the mean intensity of the candidate MA on shade corrected image and the ratio of the major axis length and minor length of the candidate MA. The overall sensitivity, specificity, precision, and accuracy are 84.82%, 99.99%, 89.01%, and 99.99%, respectively.

Keywords: Diabetic retinopathy, microaneurysm, naive Bayes classifier

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: Conditional Generative Adversarial Net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series.

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Authors: S. Sendhil Kumar, M. Senthil Kumar

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Maintenance and design engineers have great concern for the functioning of rotating machineries due to the vibration phenomenon. Improper functioning in rotating machinery originates from the damage to rolling element bearings. The status of rolling element bearings require advanced technologies to monitor their health status efficiently and effectively. Avoiding vibration during machine running conditions is a complicated process. Vibration simulation should be carried out using suitable sensors/ transducers to recognize the level of damage on bearing during machine operating conditions. Various issues arising in rotating systems are interlinked with bearing faults. This paper presents an approach for fault diagnosis of bearings using neural networks and time/frequencydomain vibration analysis.

Keywords: Bearing vibration, Condition monitoring, Fault diagnosis, Frequency domain.

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Authors: Chiu-Wen Chen, Chih-Feng Chen, Cheng-Di Dong

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This study was conducted using the data collected at the mouth of Jen-Gen River to investigate and analyze chromium (Cr) contained in the sediments, and to evaluate the accumulation of Cr and the degree of its potential risk. The results show that samples collected at all monitoring stations near the mouth of Jen-Gen River contain 92–567 mg/kg of Cr with average of 366±166 mg/kg. The spatial distribution of Cr reveals that the Cr concentration is relatively high in the river mouth region, and gradually diminishes toward the harbor region. This indicates that upstream industrial and municipal wastewater discharges along the river bank are major sources of pollution. The accumulation factor and potential ecological risk index indicate that the sedimentation at Jen-Gen River mouth has the most serious degree of Cr accumulation and the highest ecological potential risk.

Keywords: chromium, sediment, river mouth, enrichment factor

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Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

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The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: Risk identification, risk assessment, analytical hierarchical process, multi-criteria decision.

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Authors: Mohammad Bakhshandeh

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Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is a crucial and necessary practice that plays a vital role in ensuring the safety and integrity of critical structures, and in particular, bridges. The continuous monitoring of bridges for signs of damage or degradation through Bridge Health Monitoring (BHM) enables early detection of potential problems, allowing for prompt corrective action to be taken before significant damage occurs. Although all monitoring techniques aim to provide accurate and decisive information regarding the remaining useful life, safety, integrity, and serviceability of bridges, understanding the development and propagation of damage is vital for maintaining uninterrupted bridge operation. Over the years, extensive research has been conducted on BHM methods, and experts in the field have increasingly adopted new methodologies. In this article, we provide a comprehensive exploration of the various BHM approaches, including sensor-based, non-destructive testing (NDT), model-based, and artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods. We also discuss the challenges associated with BHM, including sensor placement and data acquisition, data analysis and interpretation, cost and complexity, and environmental effects, through an extensive review of relevant literature and research studies. Additionally, we examine potential solutions to these challenges and propose future research ideas to address critical gaps in BHM.

Keywords: Structural health monitoring, bridge health monitoring, sensor-based methods, machine-learning algorithms, model-based techniques, sensor placement, data acquisition, data analysis.

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Authors: O. Hassoon, M. Tarfoui, A. El Malk

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Fiber Bragg optic sensor is embedded in composite material to detect and monitor the damage that occurs in composite structures. In this paper, we deal with the mode-Ι delamination to determine the material strength to crack propagation, using the coupling mode theory and T-matrix method to simulate the FBGs spectrum for both uniform and non-uniform strain distribution. The double cantilever beam test is modeled in FEM to determine the longitudinal strain. Two models are implemented, the first is the global half model, and the second is the sub-model to represent the FBGs with higher refined mesh. This method can simulate damage in composite structures and converting strain to a wavelength shifting in the FBG spectrum.

Keywords: Fiber Bragg grating, Delamination detection, DCB, FBG spectrum, Structure health monitoring.

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Authors: Shan Gao

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In this paper, we consider a risk model involving two independent classes of insurance risks and random premium income. We assume that the premium income process is a Poisson Process, and the claim number processes are independent Poisson and generalized Erlang(n) processes, respectively. Both of the Gerber- Shiu functions with zero initial surplus and the probability generating functions (p.g.f.) of the Gerber-Shiu functions are obtained.

Keywords: Poisson process, generalized Erlang risk process, Gerber-Shiu function, generating function, generalized Lundberg equation.

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Authors: Lida Haghnegahdar, Ezzatollah Asgharizadeh

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Value engineering is an efficacious contraption for administrators to make up their minds. Value perusals proffer the gaffers a suitable instrument to decrease the expenditures of the life span, quality amelioration, structural improvement, curtailment of the construction schedule, longevity prolongation or a merging of the aforementioned cases. Subjecting organizers to pressures on one hand and their accountability towards their pertinent fields together with inherent risks and ambiguities of other options on the other hand set some comptrollers in a dilemma utilization of risk management and the value engineering in projects manipulation with regard to complexities of implementing projects can be wielded as a contraption to identify and efface each item which wreaks unnecessary expenses and time squandering sans inflicting any damages upon the essential project applications. Of course It should be noted that implementation of risk management and value engineering with regard to the betterment of efficiency and functions may lead to the project implementation timing elongation. Here time revamping does not refer to time diminishing in the whole cases. his article deals with risk and value engineering conceptualizations at first. The germane reverberations effectuated due to its execution in Iran Khodro Corporation are regarded together with the joint features and amalgamation of the aforesaid entia; hence the proposed blueprint is submitted to be taken advantage of in engineering and industrial projects including Iran Khodro Corporation.

Keywords: Management, risk engineering, value engineering, project manipulation, Iran Khodro.

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Authors: R. Kokilavani, K. Gurusamy, K. Arumugasamy

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Protective effect of ethanolic extract of polyherbal formulation (PHF) was studied on carbon tetrachloride induced liver damage on carbon tetrachloride induced liver damage. Treatment of rats with 250mg /kg body weight of ethanolic extract of PHF protected rats against carbon tetrachloride liver injury by significant lowerering 5’ nucleotidase (5’NT), Gamma Glutamyl transferase (GGT), Glutamate dehdyrogenasse (GDH) and Succinate Dehydrogenase (SDH) levels compared to control. Normalization in these enzyme levels indicates strong hepatoprotective property of PHF extract.

Keywords: Carbon tetrachloride, ethanolic, hepatoprotective, polyherbal formulation.

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Authors: Milan Rippel, Petr Teply

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This paper focuses on operational risk measurement techniques and on economic capital estimation methods. A data sample of operational losses provided by an anonymous Central European bank is analyzed using several approaches. Loss Distribution Approach and scenario analysis method are considered. Custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are merged with the original data sample and their impact on capital estimates and on the financial institution is evaluated. Two main questions are assessed – What is the most appropriate statistical method to measure and model operational loss data distribution? and What is the impact of hypothetical plausible events on the financial institution? The g&h distribution was evaluated to be the most suitable one for operational risk modeling. The method based on the combination of historical loss events modeling and scenario analysis provides reasonable capital estimates and allows for the measurement of the impact of extreme events on banking operations.

Keywords: operational risk, scenario analysis, economic capital, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, stress testing

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Authors: Moosa Haji Abbasi, Emad Benhelal, Arshad Ahmad

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Storage tank farms are essential industrial facilities to accumulate oil, petrochemicals and gaseous products. Since tank farms contain huge mass of fuel and hazardous materials, they are always targets of serious accidents such as fire, explosion, spill and toxic release which may cause severe impacts on human health, environmental and properties.

Although having a safe layout is not able to prevent initiating accidents, however it effectively controls and reduces the adverse impact of such accidents.

The aim of this paper is to determine the optimal layout for a storage tank contains different type of hydrocarbon fuels. A quantitative risk assessment is carried out on a selected tank farm in Jaipur, India, with particular attention given to both the consequence modeling and the overall risk assessment using PHAST Software. Various designs of tank layouts are examined taking into consideration several issues of plant operations and maintenance. In all stages of the work, standard guidelines specified by the industry are considered and recommendations are substantiated with simulation results and risk quantification.

Keywords: Tank farm, safe distance, safe layout, risk assessment, PHAST.

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Authors: Zina Benouaret, Djamil Aissani

Abstract:

In this work, we introduce the qualitative and quantitative concept of the strong stability method in the risk process modeling two lines of business of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premiums with a certain proportion. The approach proposed is based on the identification of the ruin probability associate to the model considered, with a stationary distribution of a Markov random process called a reversed process. Our objective, after clarifying the condition and the perturbation domain of parameters, is to obtain the stability inequality of the ruin probability which is applied to estimate the approximation error of a model with disturbance parameters by the considered model. In the stability bound obtained, all constants are explicitly written.

Keywords: Markov chain, risk models, ruin probabilities, strong stability analysis.

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Authors: Laura Sapranaviciute-Zabazlajeva, Abdonas Tamosiunas, Dalia Luksiene, Dalia Virviciute

Abstract:

The cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the EU, especially in the middle aged and elderly population. Psychological wellbeing (PWB) has been linked with better cardiovascular health and survival in the elderly. The aim of the study is to evaluate associations between CVD risk and PWB in middle-aged and elderly population. 10,940 middle aged and older Lithuanians of age 45-74 years, were invited to participate in the study. A study sample was a random and stratified by gender and age. In 2006-2008 7,087 responders participated in the survey, so the response rate was 64.8%. A follow-up study was conducted from 2006 till 2015. New CVD cases and deaths from CVD were evaluated using the Kaunas population-based CVD register and death register of Kaunas. Study results revealed that good PWB predicts longer life in female participants (Log Rank = 13.7, p < 0.001). In the fully adjusted model for socio-demographic, social and CVD risk factors, hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was lower amongst women with good PWB (HR = 0.28, 95% CI 0.11-0.72), but not significantly for men. Our study concludes, that lower CVD mortality rates is being associated with better PWB in female aged 45-74 years.

Keywords: Psychological wellbeing, cardiovascular disease, elderly.

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