Search results for: Bay of Bengal

Authors: I. Gupta, B. Karmakar

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Bengal has a long history (8^th century A.D. onwards) of decorating the wall of brick-built temples with curved terracotta plaques on a diverse range of subjects. These could be considered as one of the most significant visual archives to understand the various facets of the then contemporary societies. The temples under focus include Char-bangla temple complex (circa 1755 A.D.), Bhavanishvara temple (circa 1755 A.D.) and the Gangeshvara Shiva Jor-bangla temple (circa 1753 A.D.), located within a part of the river Bhagirathi basin in Baranagar, Murshidabad, West Bengal, India. Though, a diverse range of subjects have been intricately carved mainly on the front façades of the Baranagar temple cluster, the study specifically concentrates on depictions related to religious and non-religious acts performed by practitioners of various religious sects of late medieval Bengal with the intention to acquire knowledge about the various facets of their life. Apart from this, the paper also mapped the spatial location of these religious performers on the temples’ façades to examine if any systematic plan or arrangement had been employed for connoting a particular idea. Further, an attempt is made to provide a commentary on the attire worn by followers of various religious sects of late medieval Bengal. The primary materials for the study comprise the depictions which denote religious activities carved on the terracotta plaques. The secondary material has been collected from published and unpublished theses, journals and books. These data have been further supplemented with photographic documentation, some useful line-drawings and descriptions in table format to get a clear understanding of the concerned issues.

Keywords: Attire, scheme of allocation, terracotta temple, various religious sect.

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Authors: Ruma Bhattacharyya

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The basic objective of this paper is to measure and compare the profitability of investments made by the small and marginal farmers of the state of West Bengal in floriculture shifting from the traditional cultivation of paddy. A comparison of IRR is made to establish the fact that cultivation of flowers yield higher returns farmers whose land size is so small that viability of paddy cultivation is raising a question mark. A detailed study of the price behavior of the flower crop has been carried out in which the factors leading to the volatility of the price and the dispersion of the range have also been discussed. Finally the incremental incomes of the farmers have been calculated with the help of imputed income from paddy cultivation and the reported income from the selected flowers. The study shows that the farmers stand gainers if they opt for flower cultivation.

Keywords: Bazar Samity, Floriculture, Marginal Farmers.

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Authors: Tulika Bhattacharyya, Suhita C. Chatterjee

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West Bengal, one of the most rapidly ageing states in India, has inadequate structure for elder care. Therefore, there is an urgent need to improve elder care which involves focusing on different care settings where the elderly exists, like - Homes, Hospitals and Long-Term Care facilities (e.g. - Old Age Homes, Hospices). The study explores various elder care settings, with the intention to develop an understanding about them, and thereby generate comprehensive information about the entire spectrum of elder care in Kolkata. Empirical data are collected from the elderly and their caregivers in different settings. The tools for data collection are narratives, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions, along with field observations. Mixed method design is adopted to analyze the complexities of elder care in different set ups. The major challenges of elder care in private Homes are: architecturally inadequate housing conditions, paucity of financial support and scarcity of skilled caregivers. While the key factors preventing the Hospital and Long-Term Care Facilities from providing elder care services are inadequate policies and set governmental standards for elder care for the hospitalized elderly in various departments of the Hospital and the elderly residing in different kinds of Long Term Care Facilities. The limitations in each care setting results in considerable neglect and abuse of the elderly. The major challenges in elder care in West Bengal are lack of continuum between different care settings/ peripheral location of private Homes within public health framework and inadequate state Palliative policy- including narcotic regulations. The study suggests remedial measures to improve the capacity to deliver elder care in different settings.

Keywords: Elder care settings, family caregiver, home care, geriatric hospital care, long term care facility.

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Authors: Meghna Maiti, Utpal Roy

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In India, till today, malaria is considered to be one of the significant infectious diseases. Most of the cases regional geographical factors are the principal elements to let the places a unique identity. The incidence and intensity of infectious diseases are quite common and affect different places differently across the nation. The present study aims to identify spatial clusters of hot spots and cold spots of malaria incidence and their seasonal variation during the three periods of 2012-2014, 2015-2017 and 2018-20 in the state of West Bengal in India. As malaria is a vector-borne disease, numbers of positive test results are to be reported by the laboratories to the Department of Health, West Bengal (through the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme). Data on block-wise monthly malaria positive cases are collected from Health Management Information System (HMIS), Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. Moran’s I statistic is performed to assess the spatial autocorrelation of malaria incidence. The spatial statistical analysis mainly Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) cluster and Local Geary Cluster are applied to find the spatial clusters of hot spots and cold spots and seasonal variability of malaria incidence over the three periods. The result indicates that the spatial distribution of malaria is clustered during each of the three periods of 2012-2014, 2015-2017 and 2018-20. The analysis shows that in all the cases, high-high clusters are primarily concentrated in the western (Purulia, Paschim Medinipur districts), central (Maldah, Murshidabad districts) and the northern parts (Jalpaiguri, Kochbihar districts) and low-low clusters are found in the lower Gangetic plain (central-south) mainly and northern parts of West Bengal during the stipulated period. Apart from this seasonal variability inter-year variation is also visible. The results from different methods of this study indicate significant variation in the spatial distribution of malaria incidence in West Bengal and high incidence clusters are primarily persistently concentrated over the western part during 2012-2020 along with a strong seasonal pattern with a peak in rainy and autumn. By applying the different techniques in identifying the different degrees of incidence zones of malaria across West Bengal, some specific pockets or malaria hotspots are marked and identified where the incidence rates are quite harmonious over the different periods. From this analysis, it is clear that malaria is not a disease that is distributed uniformly across the state; some specific pockets are more prone to be affected in particular seasons of each year. Disease ecology and spatial patterns must be the factors in explaining the real factors for the higher incidence of this issue within those affected districts. The further study mainly by applying empirical approach is needed for discerning the strong relationship between communicable disease and other associated affecting factors.

Keywords: Malaria, infectious diseases, spatial statistics, spatial autocorrelation, LISA.

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Authors: Moumita Palchaudhuri, Sujata Biswas

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Drought is universally acknowledged as a phenomenon associated with scarcity of water. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) expresses the actual rainfall as standardized departure from rainfall probability distribution function. In this study severity and spatial pattern of meteorological drought was analyzed in the Puruliya District, West Bengal, India using multi-temporal SPI. Daily gridded data for the period 1971-2005 from 4 rainfall stations surrounding the study area were collected from IMD, Pune, and used in the analysis. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to generate drought severity maps for the different time scales and months of the year. Temporal SPI graphs show that the maximum SPI value (extreme drought) occurs in station 3 in the year 1993. Mild and moderate droughts occur in the central portion of the study area. Severe and extreme droughts were mostly found in the northeast, northwest and the southwest part of the region.

Keywords: Standardized Precipitation Index, Meteorological Drought, Geographical Information System, Drought severity.

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Authors: Rao M. V., Joshi S. C., Balaji M.

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Coastal zone combines terrestrial, marine and atmospheric factors and gives rise to unique landforms that play an important role in long-term sustainability of the hinterland and economy of maritime nations. World over, efforts have been put forth to understand plants of the seacoasts. In India also, plants of several geographical entities have been well documented, but works devoted to plant communities of the vast tropical coast of India and its States are still insufficient. Therefore, an inventory of plants flourishing in a stretch of ~450km of the Coastal Regulatory Zone I encompassing a total of 84 villages in 6 revenue Districts of northern Andhra Pradesh (15o42’06”N, 80^o51’03”E to 19o05’51”N, 84^o47’44”E) along Bay of Bengal was carried out. The study revealed presence of a total of 364 species belonging to 225 genera under 71 families. In addition to inventory, zonation pattern, ethnobotany, and certain interesting ecological facts are included.

Keywords: Ecology, Ethnobotany, Inventory, Tropical coast, Zonation.

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Authors: Satadal Das, Parthasarathi Sengupta

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With millions of livestock wealth in India including cattle, and buffaloes, the National Animal Disease Control Program targeted a massive Brucella vaccination program. As a part of it in the state of West Bengal Veterinary healthcare assistants participated in the program in 2021. The aim of this study was to elucidate the burden of brucellosis in those healthcare assistants and to pinpoint the main causes of such infection. We contacted the healthcare assistants to find out whether they were infected during the vaccination program. Our findings indicated many Veterinary healthcare assistants who participated in the program developed symptoms and signs suggestive of brucellosis. Laboratory tests indicated many confirmed Brucellosis cases. However, this may not include many asymptomatic cases. Detailed analysis revealed that in most of them there was a history of needle prick injury about a month back during the vaccination program, which was mainly due to ferocious or disturbed animals. Few also complained that they were not properly trained or proper personal protective types of equipment were not provided. All of them were treated in referral hospitals following a standard protocol of the Government Health Department and now they are followed up. Thus we conclude that proper care during the vaccination of animals should be followed, prophylactic treatment for needle prick injuries should be given, and training and supply of personal protective equipment should be monitored.

Keywords: Occupational brucellosis, needle prick injury, brucella vaccination, personal protective equipment.

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Authors: Kalyan Kumar Moulick

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In this paper, the author studied the possibilities of using Rice Husk Ash (RHA) available in India; to produce concrete. Experiments conducted with RHA obtained from West Bengal, India; to replace cement partially to produce concrete of grade M10, M15, M20, M25 and M30. The concrete produced in the laboratory by replacing cement by 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% and 30% RHA. Compressive strength tests carried out to determine the strength of concrete. Cost analysis and comparison done to show the cost effectiveness of RHA Concrete. Traditional uses of Rice Husk in India pointed out and the advantages of using RHA in making concrete highlighted. Suggestion provided regarding prospective application of RHA concrete in India; which in turn will definitely reduce the cost of concrete and environmental friendly due to utilization of waste and replacement of Cement.

Keywords: Cement replacement, Concrete, Environmental friendly, Rice Husk Ash.

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Authors: R. Nandikeswari, M. Sambasivam, V. Anandan

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In the present study fecundity of Terapon jarbua was estimated for 41 matured females from the Bay of Bengal, Pondicherry. The fecundity (F) was found to range from 13,475 to 115,920 in fishes between 173-278mm Total length (TL) and 65- 298 gm weight respectively. The co-efficient of correlation for F/TL (log F = - 4.821 + 4.146 log TL), F/SL (log F = -3.936 + 3.867 log SL), F/WF (log F = 1.229 + 0.730 log TW) and F/GW (log F = 0.724 + 1.113 log GW) were obtained as 0.474, 0.537, 0.641 and 0.908 respectively. The regression line for the TL, SL, WF and GW of the fishes were found to be linear when they were plotted against their fecundity on logarithmic scales. Highly significant (P<0.01) relationship was obtained for all the variables. Hence Total Length, Standard Length, Weight of Fish and Gonad Weight were found to be the best indicators of the fecundity of Terapon jarbua. Gonadosomatic indices of Terapon jarbua showed that the spawning took place in February to July. The overall sex ratio of male to female is 1.28:1 with chi-square value 5.719, significant at 5% level.

Keywords: Fecundity, Gonadosomatic index, Reproductive biology, spawning, Terapon jarbua.

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Authors: Bishnupriya Sahoo, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, coastal vulnerability index, power dissipation index, tropical cyclone.

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Authors: Jana Kisková, Dana Gabriková

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Monoamine oxidase A gene (MAOA) is suggested to be a candidate gene implicated in many neuropsychiatric disorders, including autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This meta-analytic review evaluates the relationship between ASD and MAOA markers such as 30 bp variable number tandem repeats in the promoter region (uVNTR) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) by using findings from recently published studies. It seems that in Caucasian males, the risk of developing ASD increase with the presence of 4- repeat allele in the promoter region of MAOA gene whereas no differences were found between autistic patients and controls in Egyptian, West Bengal and Korean population. Some studies point to the importance of specific haplotype groups of SNPs and interaction of MAOA with others genes (e. g. FOXP2 or SRY). The results of existing studies are insufficient and further research is needed.

Keywords: Autism spectrum disorder, MAOA, uVNTR, single nucleotide polymorphism.

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Authors: Suman B. Chakraborty, Samir Banerjee

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Stocking density is considered one of the important factors affecting fish growth. But, information related to impact of stocking density on growth performance of monosex tilapia population under the ecological conditions of Gangetic plains in West Bengal, India is limited. The aim of our study was to compare the growth potential of monosex tilapia at various stocking densities and to determine an ideal stocking density for culture of all-male monosex fish. The males were isolated by examination of genital papilla region and were stocked separately in 0.01 ha earthen ponds at different stocking densities (5000, 10000, 15000, 20000, 25000 and 30000 fingerlings/ha). It was found that the highest weight, length, daily weight gain, growth rate and protein content were observed for the 20000 fish/ha density class. Thus, culture of monosex tilapia at a density of 20000 fish/ha can be considered ideal for augmented production of the fish under Indian context.

Keywords: Growth potential, Nile tilapia, Pond culture, Stockingdensity.

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Authors: Christhu Raj M. R., Rajeev Sukumaran

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Underwater acoustic networks have attracted great attention in the last few years because of its numerous applications. High data rate can be achieved by efficiently modeling the physical layer in the network protocol stack. In Acoustic medium, propagation speed of the acoustic waves is dependent on many parameters such as temperature, salinity, density, and depth. Acoustic propagation speed cannot be modeled using standard empirical formulas such as Urick and Thorp descriptions. In this paper, we have modeled the acoustic channel using real time data of temperature, salinity, and speed of Bay of Bengal (Indian Coastal Region). We have modeled the acoustic channel by using Mackenzie speed equation and real time data obtained from National Institute of Oceanography and Technology. It is found that acoustic propagation speed varies between 1503 m/s to 1544 m/s as temperature and depth differs. The simulation results show that temperature, salinity, depth plays major role in acoustic propagation and data rate increases with appropriate data sets substituted in the simulated model.

Keywords: Underwater Acoustics, Mackenzie Speed Equation, Temperature, Salinity.

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Authors: Amit Bhattacharyya

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The economic scenario of any region does not show the real picture for the measurement of overall development. Therefore, economic development must be accompanied by social development to be able to make an assessment to measure the level of development. The spatial variation with respect to social development has been discussed taking into account the quality of functioning of a social system in a specific area. In this paper, an attempt has been made to study the spatial distribution of social infrastructural facilities and analyze the magnitude of regional disparities at inter- block level in Barddhman district. It starts with the detailed account of the selection process of social infrastructure indicators and describes the methodology employed in the empirical analysis. Analyzing the block level data, this paper tries to identify the disparity among the blocks in the levels of social development. The results have been subsequently explained using both statistical analysis and geo spatial technique. The paper reveals that the social development is not going on at the same rate in every part of the district. Health facilities and educational facilities are concentrated at some selected point. So overall development activities come to be concentrated in a few centres and the disparity is seen over the blocks.

Keywords: Disparity, inter-block, social development, spatial variation.

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Authors: Mizan Ahmed, Srikanth Venkatesan

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Geological and tectonic framework indicates that Bangladesh is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. The Bengal Basin is at the junction of three major interacting plates: the Indian, Eurasian, and Burma Plates. Besides there are many active faults within the region, e.g. the large Dauki fault in the north. The country has experienced a number of destructive earthquakes due to the movement of these active faults. Current seismic provisions of Bangladesh are mostly based on earthquake data prior to the 1990. Given the record of earthquakes post 1990, there is a need to revisit the design provisions of the code. This paper compares the base shear demand of three major cities in Bangladesh: Dhaka (the capital city), Sylhet, and Chittagong for earthquake scenarios of magnitudes 7.0MW, 7.5MW, 8.0MW, and 8.5MW using a stochastic model. In particular, the stochastic model allows the flexibility to input region specific parameters such as shear wave velocity profile (that were developed from Global Crustal Model CRUST2.0) and include the effects of attenuation as individual components. Effects of soil amplification were analysed using the Extended Component Attenuation Model (ECAM). Results show that the estimated base shear demand is higher in comparison with code provisions leading to the suggestion of additional seismic design consideration in the study regions.

Keywords: Attenuation, earthquake, ground motion, stochastic, seismic hazard.

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Authors: Khushboo Gokani, Renu Josan

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Mahasweta Devi and Toni Morrison are the two stalwarts of the Indian English and the Afro-American literature respectively. The writings of these two novelists are authentic and powerful records of the lives of the people because much of their personal experiences have gone into the making of their works. Devi, a representative force of the Indian English literature, is also a social activist working with the tribals of Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal. Most of her works echo the lives and struggles of the subalterns as is evident in her “best beloved book” Chotti Munda and His Arrow. The novelist focuses on the struggle of the tribals against the colonial and the feudal powers to create their own identity, thereby, embarking on the ideological project of ‘setting the record straight’. The Nobel Laureate Toni Morrison, on the other hand, brings to the fore the crucial issues of gender, race and class in many of her significant works. In one of her representative works Sula, the protagonist emerges as a non- conformist and directly confronts the notion of a ‘good woman’ nurtured by the community of the Blacks. In addition to this, the struggle of the Blacks against the White domination, also become an important theme of the text. The thrust of the paper lies in making a critical analysis of the portrayal of the heroic attempts of the subaltern protagonist and the artistic endeavor of the novelists in challenging the stereotypes.

Keywords: Subaltern, The Centre And The Periphery, Struggle Of The Muted Groups.

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Authors: Debolina Chatterjee, Suhita Chopra Chatterjee

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Imprisonment is an expansive concept, as it is regulated by laws under criminal justice system of the state. The state sets principles of punishment to control offenders and also puts limits to excess punitive control. One significant way through which it exercises control is through rules governing healthcare of imprisoned population. Prisons signify specialized settings which accommodate both medical and legal concerns. The provision of care operates within the institutional paradigm of punishment. This requires the state to negotiate adequately between goals of punishment and fulfilment of basic human rights of offenders. The present study is based on a critical analysis of prison healthcare standards in India, which include government policies and guidelines. It also demonstrates how healthcare is delivered by drawing insights from a primary study conducted in a correctional home in the state of West Bengal, India, which houses both male and female inmates. Forty women were interviewed through semi-structured interviews, followed by focus group discussions. Doctors and administrative personnel were also interviewed. Findings show how institutional practices control women through subversion of the role of doctors to prison administration. Also, poor healthcare infrastructure, unavailability of specialized services, hierarchies between personnel and inmates make prisons unlikely sites for therapeutic intervention. The paper further discusses how institutional practices foster gender-based discriminatory practices.

Keywords: Imprisonment, imprisoned women, prison healthcare, prison policies.

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Authors: Bitan Kumar Sarkar, Akashdeep Agarwal, Rajib Dey, Gopes Chandra Das

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The rapid depletion of high-grade iron ore (Fe₂O₃) has gained attention on the use of other sources of iron ore. Titaniferous magnetite ore (TMO) is a special type of magnetite ore having high titania content (23.23% TiO₂ present in this case). Due to high TiO₂ content and high density, TMO cannot be treated by the conventional smelting reduction. In this present work, the TMO has been collected from high-grade metamorphic terrain of the Precambrian Chotanagpur gneissic complex situated in the eastern part of India (Shaltora area, Bankura district, West Bengal) and the hematite ore has been collected from Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP), Visakhapatnam. At VSP, iron ore is received from Bailadila mines, Chattisgarh of M/s. National Mineral Development Corporation. The preliminary characterization of TMO and hematite ore (HMO) has been investigated by WDXRF, XRD and FESEM analyses. Similarly, good quality of coal (mainly coking coal) is also getting depleted fast. The basic purpose of this work is to find how lean grade coal can be utilised along with TMO for smelting to produce pig iron. Lean grade coal has been characterised by using TG/DTA, proximate and ultimate analyses. The boiler grade coal has been found to contain 28.08% of fixed carbon and 28.31% of volatile matter. TMO fines (below 75 μm) and HMO fines (below 75 μm) have been separately agglomerated with lean grade coal fines (below 75 μm) in the form of briquettes using binders like bentonite and molasses. These green briquettes are dried first in oven at 423 K for 30 min and then reduced isothermally in tube furnace over the temperature range of 1323 K, 1373 K and 1423 K for 30 min & 60 min. After reduction, the reduced briquettes are characterized by XRD and FESEM analyses. The best reduced TMO and HMO samples are taken and blended in three different weight percentage ratios of 1:4, 1:8 and 1:12 of TMO:HMO. The chemical analysis of three blended samples is carried out and degree of metallisation of iron is found to contain 89.38%, 92.12% and 93.12%, respectively. These three blended samples are briquetted using binder like bentonite and lime. Thereafter these blended briquettes are separately smelted in raising hearth furnace at 1773 K for 30 min. The pig iron formed is characterized using XRD, microscopic analysis. It can be concluded that 90% yield of pig iron can be achieved when the blend ratio of TMO:HMO is 1:4.5. This means for 90% yield, the maximum TMO that could be used in the blend is about 18%.

Keywords: Briquetting reduction, lean grade coal, smelting reduction, TMO.

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Authors: Sujana Dhar, Asis Mazumdar

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The effects of global warming on India vary from the submergence of low-lying islands and coastal lands to the melting of glaciers in the Indian Himalayas, threatening the volumetric flow rate of many of the most important rivers of India and South Asia. In India, such effects are projected to impact millions of lives. As a result of ongoing climate change, the climate of India has become increasingly volatile over the past several decades; this trend is expected to continue. Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. The climate change issue is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development. As a result, climate policies can be more effective when consistently embedded within broader strategies designed to make national and regional development paths more sustainable. The impact of climate variability and change, climate policy responses, and associated socio-economic development will affect the ability of countries to achieve sustainable development goals. A very well calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (R2 = 0.9968, NSE = 0.91) was exercised over the Khatra sub basin of the Kangsabati River watershed in Bankura district of West Bengal, India, in order to evaluate projected parameters for agricultural activities. Evapotranspiration, Transmission Losses, Potential Evapotranspiration and Lateral Flow to reach are evaluated from the years 2041-2050 in order to generate a picture for sustainable development of the river basin and its inhabitants. India has a significant stake in scientific advancement as well as an international understanding to promote mitigation and adaptation. This requires improved scientific understanding, capacity building, networking and broad consultation processes. This paper is a commitment towards the planning, management and development of the water resources of the Kangsabati River by presenting detailed future scenarios of the Kangsabati river basin, Khatra sub basin, over the mentioned time period. India-s economy and societal infrastructures are finely tuned to the remarkable stability of the Indian monsoon, with the consequence that vulnerability to small changes in monsoon rainfall is very high. In 2002 the monsoon rains failed during July, causing profound loss of agricultural production with a drop of over 3% in India-s GDP. Neither the prolonged break in the monsoon nor the seasonal rainfall deficit was predicted. While the general features of monsoon variability and change are fairly well-documented, the causal mechanisms and the role of regional ecosystems in modulating the changes are still not clear. Current climate models are very poor at modelling the Asian monsoon: this is a challenging and critical region where the ocean, atmosphere, land surface and mountains all interact. The impact of climate change on regional ecosystems is likewise unknown. The potential for the monsoon to become more volatile has major implications for India itself and for economies worldwide. Knowledge of future variability of the monsoon system, particularly in the context of global climate change, is of great concern for regional water and food security. The major findings of this paper were that of all the chosen projected parameters, transmission losses, soil water content, potential evapotranspiration, evapotranspiration and lateral flow to reach, display an increasing trend over the time period of years 2041- 2050.

Keywords: Change, future water availability scenario, modeling, SWAT, global warming, sustainability.

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