Search results for: social scenario story
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 10625

Search results for: social scenario story

10325 Cross-Sectoral Energy Demand Prediction for Germany with a 100% Renewable Energy Production in 2050

Authors: Ali Hashemifarzad, Jens Zum Hingst

Abstract:

The structure of the world’s energy systems has changed significantly over the past years. One of the most important challenges in the 21st century in Germany (and also worldwide) is the energy transition. This transition aims to comply with the recent international climate agreements from the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21) to ensure sustainable energy supply with minimal use of fossil fuels. Germany aims for complete decarbonization of the energy sector by 2050 according to the federal climate protection plan. One of the stipulations of the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017 for the expansion of energy production from renewable sources in Germany is that they cover at least 80% of the electricity requirement in 2050; The Gross end energy consumption is targeted for at least 60%. This means that by 2050, the energy supply system would have to be almost completely converted to renewable energy. An essential basis for the development of such a sustainable energy supply from 100% renewable energies is to predict the energy requirement by 2050. This study presents two scenarios for the final energy demand in Germany in 2050. In the first scenario, the targets for energy efficiency increase and demand reduction are set very ambitiously. To build a comparison basis, the second scenario provides results with less ambitious assumptions. For this purpose, first, the relevant framework conditions (following CUTEC 2016) were examined, such as the predicted population development and economic growth, which were in the past a significant driver for the increase in energy demand. Also, the potential for energy demand reduction and efficiency increase (on the demand side) was investigated. In particular, current and future technological developments in energy consumption sectors and possible options for energy substitution (namely the electrification rate in the transport sector and the building renovation rate) were included. Here, in addition to the traditional electricity sector, the areas of heat, and fuel-based consumptions in different sectors such as households, commercial, industrial and transport are taken into account, supporting the idea that for a 100% supply from renewable energies, the areas currently based on (fossil) fuels must be almost completely be electricity-based by 2050. The results show that in the very ambitious scenario a final energy demand of 1,362 TWh/a is required, which is composed of 818 TWh/a electricity, 229 TWh/a ambient heat for electric heat pumps and approx. 315 TWh/a non-electric energy (raw materials for non-electrifiable processes). In the less ambitious scenario, in which the targets are not fully achieved by 2050, the final energy demand will need a higher electricity part of almost 1,138 TWh/a (from the total: 1,682 TWh/a). It has also been estimated that 50% of the electricity revenue must be saved to compensate for fluctuations in the daily and annual flows. Due to conversion and storage losses (about 50%), this would mean that the electricity requirement for the very ambitious scenario would increase to 1,227 TWh / a.

Keywords: energy demand, energy transition, German Energiewende, 100% renewable energy production

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10324 The Scenario Analysis of Shale Gas Development in China by Applying Natural Gas Pipeline Optimization Model

Authors: Meng Xu, Alexis K. H. Lau, Ming Xu, Bill Barron, Narges Shahraki

Abstract:

As an emerging unconventional energy, shale gas has been an economically viable step towards a cleaner energy future in U.S. China also has shale resources that are estimated to be potentially the largest in the world. In addition, China has enormous unmet for a clean alternative to substitute coal. Nonetheless, the geological complexity of China’s shale basins and issues of water scarcity potentially impose serious constraints on shale gas development in China. Further, even if China could replicate to a significant degree the U.S. shale gas boom, China faces the problem of transporting the gas efficiently overland with its limited pipeline network throughput capacity and coverage. The aim of this study is to identify the potential bottlenecks in China’s gas transmission network, as well as to examine the shale gas development affecting particular supply locations and demand centers. We examine this through application of three scenarios with projecting domestic shale gas supply by 2020: optimistic, medium and conservative shale gas supply, taking references from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) projections and China’s shale gas development plans. Separately we project the gas demand at provincial level, since shale gas will have more significant impact regionally than nationally. To quantitatively assess each shale gas development scenario, we formulated a gas pipeline optimization model. We used ArcGIS to generate the connectivity parameters and pipeline segment length. Other parameters are collected from provincial “twelfth-five year” plans and “China Oil and Gas Pipeline Atlas”. The multi-objective optimization model uses GAMs and Matlab. It aims to minimize the demands that are unable to be met, while simultaneously seeking to minimize total gas supply and transmission costs. The results indicate that, even if the primary objective is to meet the projected gas demand rather than cost minimization, there’s a shortfall of 9% in meeting total demand under the medium scenario. Comparing the results between the optimistic and medium supply of shale gas scenarios, almost half of the shale gas produced in Sichuan province and Chongqing won’t be able to be transmitted out by pipeline. On the demand side, the Henan province and Shanghai gas demand gap could be filled as much as 82% and 39% respectively, with increased shale gas supply. To conclude, the pipeline network in China is currently not sufficient in meeting the projected natural gas demand in 2020 under medium and optimistic scenarios, indicating the need for substantial pipeline capacity expansion for some of the existing network, and the importance of constructing new pipelines from particular supply to demand sites. If the pipeline constraint is overcame, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Henan’s gas demand gap could potentially be filled, and China could thereby reduce almost 25% its dependency on LNG imports under the optimistic scenario.

Keywords: energy policy, energy systematic analysis, scenario analysis, shale gas in China

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10323 An Entrepreneurial Culture Led by Creativity and Innovation: Challenges and Competencies for Sri Lanka as a Middle Income Country

Authors: Tissa Ravinda Perera

Abstract:

An open economic policy was introduced by Sri Lanka in 1977, before many other countries in Asia to align her economy to world economic trends and it was affected indigenous businesses since they had to compete with foreign products, processes, technology, innovations and businesses. The year 2010 was a milestone in Sri Lankan history to achieve the developmental goals when Foxbuisness rated Sri Lanka as the best performing global economy. However, Sri Lanka missed her chances of achieving development with the political and social chaos, consequent the regime change in 2015. This paper argues that to support the development of the country, Sri Lanka must develop an entrepreneurial culture. In this endeavor, creativity and innovation will play a pivotal role to achieve the desired level of development. In this study, it was used secondary data from various local and international sources to understand and explore the existing scenario of Sri Lankan economy, state of entrepreneurial culture and innovation, and challenges and competencies for the development of an entrepreneurial culture in Sri Lanka. The data was collected from secondary sources were depicted in tables in this paper in a meaningful manner. Based on the tables many findings were aroused and conclusions were made to support the argument in this paper. This paper revealed that the development of an entrepreneurial culture has to be associated with creativity and innovation to gain a competitive advantage over the development strategies of other countries. It is exposed that an entrepreneurial culture will help minorities, women and underprivileged societies to empower themselves. This product will help to confront and manage youth unrest which has created anarchy in the country from time to time. Throughout this paper, it was highlighted the past, present and future scenario of Sri Lankan economy along with modification to be done to it through the development of an entrepreneur culture in light of innovation and creativity to achieve the desired level of development.

Keywords: economy, industry, creativity, innovation, entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial culture

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10322 Exploring Heidegger’s Fourfold through Architecture-Dwelling for Imaginary Fictional Characters in Drawings

Authors: Hassan Wajid

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Architecture design studio with all its accouterments, especially pedagogies, has been committed to awakening the students to the true meaning of the concept of Dwelling. The real task is how to make them unlearn the associations of “dwelling as a rented or owned accommodation by the road with a car parked in front of a garage door and replace it by the fundamental experiential-phenomenological manifestations of Light, Space, Gravity and Time through assigned readings and small theoretical challenges resulting in drawings and models. The primary challenge for teachers remained the introduction of the act or desire of ‘Dwelling’ philosophically. The academic link had been offered by Albert Hofstadter's Poetry, Language, through which Martin Heidegger’s fourfold concept of ‘Building Dwelling, Thinking’ primarily served to guide us through this trajectory in helping to build an intellectual framework as justification of the term “dwelling” in its various meanings. Gaston Bachelard’s Poetics of Space and Merleau-Ponti’s Phenomenology of Perception also got assigned as reading. Four fictional characters created by two master short story writers G Maupassant, and O Henry were introduced as DwellersClients in search of their respective dwellings as drawn imaginations in the studio four-fold of Light, Space, Gravity, and Time and at the same time aspire to understand thoroughly Heidegger’s Four-Fold of Earth, Sky, Divinities and Mortals. asserting its place in the corresponding story and its unique character as the Dweller.

Keywords: dwelling, imagination, architectural manifestation, phenomenological

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10321 The Learning Experience of Two Students with Visual Impairments in the EFL Courses: A Case Study

Authors: May Ling González-Ruiz, Ana Cristina Solís-Solís

Abstract:

Everyday more people can thrive towards the dream of pursuing a university diploma. This can be more attainable for some than for others who may face different types of limitations. Even though not all limitations come from within the individual but most of the times they come from without it may include the environment, the support of the person’s family, the school – its infrastructure, administrative procedures, and attitudes. This is a qualitative type of research that is developed through a case study. It is based on the experiences of two students who are visually impaired and who have attended a public university in Costa Rica. We enquire about the experiences of these two students in the English as a Foreign Language courses at the university scenario. An in-depth analysis of their lived experiences is presented. Their values, attitudes, and expectations serve as the guiding elements for this research. Findings are presented in light of the Social Justice Approach to inclusive education. Some of the most salient aspects found have to do with the attitudes the students used to face challenges; others point at those elements that may have hindered the learning experience of the persons observed and to those that encouraged them to continue their journey and successfully achieve a diploma.

Keywords: inclusion, case study, visually impaired student, learning experience, social justice approach

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10320 Variables for Measuring the Impact of the Social Enterprises in the Field of Community Development

Authors: A. Irudaya Veni Mary, M. Victor Louis Anthuvan, P. Christie, A. Indira

Abstract:

In India, social enterprises are working to create social value in various fields including education; health; women and child development; environment protection and community development. Although social enterprises have brought about tremendous changes in the lives of beneficiaries, the importance of their works is not understood thoroughly. One of the ways to prove themselves is to measure the impact, which in recent times has received much attention. This paper focuses on the study of social value created by the social enterprises in the field of community development. It also aims to put forth a research tool for measuring the social value created by the social enterprises in the field of community development. A close-ended interview schedule was prepared to measure the social value creation and it was administered among 60 beneficiaries of two social enterprises who work in the field of community development. The study results show that the social enterprises have brought four types of impact in the life of their beneficiaries; economic impact, social impact, political impact and cultural impact. This study is limited to the social enterprises those who work towards community development. This empirical finding will enable the reader to understand various types of social value created by the social enterprises working in the field of community development. This study will also serve as guide for social enterprises in community development activities to measure their impact and thereby improve their operation towards the betterment of the society. This paper is derived from an empirical research carried out to describe the different types of social value created by the social enterprises in India.

Keywords: social enterprise, social entrepreneurs, social impact, social value, tool for social impact measurement

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10319 Place, Female and Latino Identities in Kali Fajardo-Anstine’s Short Story Collection Sabrina and Corina

Authors: Jaroslav Kusnir

Abstract:

In her short story collection, Sabrina & Corina, Kali Fajardo-Anstine depicts mostly Latina characters of indigenous background living and travelling in the American West and the Southwest. In all the stories, place and the environment plays an important role in the construction of cultural identity of these characters that is influenced by their indigenous background, a specificity of the American West, its culture and environment, as well as a contemporary (modern) American culture, position of women and gender roles in a Latino community in the USA. This paper will analyze Fajardo-Anstine´s depiction of a specificity of place, especially of the American West and its role in a construction of Latino/a cultural identity in a modern American society as manifested especially in Fajardo-Anstine´s stories Any Further West and Sabrina & Corina. At the same time, the paper will point out Fajardo-Anstine´s construction of cultural identity of female characters and their gender roles in both Latino and a contemporary American societies. The research results show that the formation of Latina cultural identity is closely connected with both place, that is the American West and the Soutwest as well as with Latina and contemporary American cultures.

Keywords: American culture, american west, cultural identity, female identity, latina identity, place

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10318 The Antecedents of Internet Addiction toward Smartphone Usage

Authors: Pui-Lai To, Chechen Liao, Hen-Yi Huang

Abstract:

Twenty years after Internet development, scholars have started to identify the negative impacts brought by the Internet. Overuse of Internet could develop Internet dependency and in turn cause addiction behavior. Therefore understanding the phenomenon of Internet addiction is important. With the joint efforts of experts and scholars, Internet addiction has been officially listed as a symptom that affects public health, and the diagnosis, causes and treatment of the symptom have also been explored. On the other hand, in the area of smartphone Internet usage, most studies are still focusing on the motivation factors of smartphone usage. Not much research has been done on smartphone Internet addiction. In view of the increasing adoption of smartphones, this paper is intended to find out whether smartphone Internet addiction exists in modern society or not. This study adopted the research methodology of online survey targeting users with smartphone Internet experience. A total of 434 effective samples were recovered. In terms of data analysis, Partial Least Square (PLS) in Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is used for sample analysis and research model testing. Software chosen for statistical analysis is SPSS 20.0 for windows and SmartPLS 2.0. The research result successfully proved that smartphone users who access Internet service via smartphone could also develop smartphone Internet addiction. Factors including flow experience, depression, virtual social support, smartphone Internet affinity and maladaptive cognition all have significant and positive influence on smartphone Internet addiction. In the scenario of smartphone Internet use, descriptive norm has a positive and significant influence on perceived playfulness, while perceived playfulness also has a significant and positive influence on flow experience. Depression, on the other hand, is negatively influenced by actual social support and positive influenced by the virtual social support.

Keywords: internet addiction, smartphone usage, social support, perceived playfulness

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10317 Scenario Based Reaction Time Analysis for Seafarers

Authors: Umut Tac, Leyla Tavacioglu, Pelin Bolat

Abstract:

Human factor has been one of the elements that cause vulnerabilities which can be resulted with accidents in maritime transportation. When the roots of human factor based accidents are analyzed, gaps in performing cognitive abilities (reaction time, attention, memory…) are faced as the main reasons for the vulnerabilities in complex environment of maritime systems. Thus cognitive processes in maritime systems have arisen important subject that should be investigated comprehensively. At this point, neurocognitive tests such as reaction time analysis tests have been used as coherent tools that enable us to make valid assessments for cognitive status. In this respect, the aim of this study is to evaluate the reaction time (response time or latency) of seafarers due to their occupational experience and age. For this study, reaction time for different maneuverers has been taken while the participants were performing a sea voyage through a simulator which was run up with a certain scenario. After collecting the data for reaction time, a statistical analyze has been done to understand the relation between occupational experience and cognitive abilities.

Keywords: cognitive abilities, human factor, neurocognitive test battery, reaction time

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10316 Analytical Method for Seismic Analysis of Shaft-Tunnel Junction under Longitudinal Excitations

Authors: Jinghua Zhang

Abstract:

Shaft-tunnel junction is a typical case of the structural nonuniformity in underground structures. The shaft and the tunnel possess greatly different structural features. Even under uniform excitations, they tend to behave discrepantly. Studies on shaft-tunnel junctions are mainly performed numerically. Shaking table tests are also conducted. Although many numerical and experimental data are obtained, an analytical solution still has great merits of gaining more insights into the shaft-tunnel problem. This paper will try to remedy the situation. Since the seismic responses of shaft-tunnel junctions are very related to directions of the excitations, they are studied in two scenarios: the longitudinal-excitation scenario and the transverse-excitation scenario. The former scenario will be addressed in this paper. Given that responses of the tunnel are highly dependent on the shaft, the analytical solutions would be developed firstly for the vertical shaft. Then, the seismic responses of the tunnel would be discussed. Since vertical shafts bear a resemblance to rigid caissons, the solution proposed in this paper is derived by introducing terms of shaft-tunnel and soil-tunnel interactions into equations originally developed for rigid caissons. The validity of the solution is examined by a validation model computed by finite element method. The mutual influence between the shaft and the tunnel is introduced. The soil-structure interactions are discussed parametrically based on the proposed equations. The shaft-tunnel relative displacement and the soil-tunnel relative stiffness are found to be the most important parameters affecting the magnitudes and distributions of the internal forces of the tunnel. A hinge-joint at the shaft-tunnel junction could significantly reduce the degree of stress concentration compared with a rigid joint.

Keywords: analytical solution, longitudinal excitation, numerical validation , shaft-tunnel junction

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10315 Optimum Structural Wall Distribution in Reinforced Concrete Buildings Subjected to Earthquake Excitations

Authors: Nesreddine Djafar Henni, Akram Khelaifia, Salah Guettala, Rachid Chebili

Abstract:

Reinforced concrete shear walls and vertical plate-like elements play a pivotal role in efficiently managing a building's response to seismic forces. This study investigates how the performance of reinforced concrete buildings equipped with shear walls featuring different shear wall-to-frame stiffness ratios aligns with the requirements stipulated in the Algerian seismic code RPA99v2003, particularly in high-seismicity regions. Seven distinct 3D finite element models are developed and evaluated through nonlinear static analysis. Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs) such as lateral displacement, inter-story drift ratio, shear force, and bending moment along the building height are analyzed. The findings reveal two predominant categories of induced responses: force-based and displacement-based EDPs. Furthermore, as the shear wall-to-frame ratio increases, there is a concurrent increase in force-based EDPs and a decrease in displacement-based ones. Examining the distribution of shear walls from both force and displacement perspectives, model G with the highest stiffness ratio, concentrating stiffness at the building's center, intensifies induced forces. This configuration necessitates additional reinforcements, leading to a conservative design approach. Conversely, model C, with the lowest stiffness ratio, distributes stiffness towards the periphery, resulting in minimized induced shear forces and bending moments, representing an optimal scenario with maximal performance and minimal strength requirements.

Keywords: dual RC buildings, RC shear walls, modeling, static nonlinear pushover analysis, optimization, seismic performance

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10314 Towards Safety-Oriented System Design: Preventing Operator Errors by Scenario-Based Models

Authors: Avi Harel

Abstract:

Most accidents are commonly attributed in hindsight to human errors, yet most methodologies for safety focus on technical issues. According to the Black Swan theory, this paradox is due to insufficient data about the ways systems fail. The article presents a study of the sources of errors, and proposes a methodology for utility-oriented design, comprising methods for coping with each of the sources identified. Accident analysis indicates that errors typically result from difficulties of operating in exceptional conditions. Therefore, following STAMP, the focus should be on preventing exceptions. Exception analysis indicates that typically they involve an improper account of the operational scenario, due to deficiencies in the system integration. The methodology proposes a model, which is a formal definition of the system operation, as well as principles and guidelines for safety-oriented system integration. The article calls to develop and integrate tools for recording and analysis of the system activity during the operation, required to implement validate the model.

Keywords: accidents, complexity, errors, exceptions, interaction, modeling, resilience, risks

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10313 Social Aspects and Successfully Funding a Crowd-Funding Project: The Impact of Social Information

Authors: Peggy S. C. van Teunenbroek

Abstract:

Recently, philanthropic crowd-funding -the raising of external funding from a large audience via social networks or social media- emerged as a new funding instrument for the Dutch cultural sector. However, such philanthropic crowdfunding in the US and the Netherlands is less successful than any other form of crowdfunding. We argue that social aspects are an important stimulus in philanthropic crowd-funding since previous research has shown that crowdfunding is stimulated by something beyond financial merits. Put simply, crowd-funding seems to be a socially motivated activity. In this paper we focus on the effect of social information, described as information about the donation behavior of previous donors. Using a classroom experiment we demonstrated a positive effect of social information on the donation behavior in crowdfunding campaigns. Our study extends previous research by showing who is affected by social information and why, and highlights how social information can be used to stimulate individuals to donate more to crowdfunding projects.

Keywords: online donation behavior, philanthropic crowdfunding, social information, social influence, social motivation

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10312 Georgian Social Security System Compatibility with EU Requirements

Authors: Nino Grigolaia

Abstract:

Introduction: The article discusses the experience of the EU in the social field, analyzes the peculiarities of the functioning of the social system in Georgia, and reveals the priority and importance of social policy. Methodology: Different research methods are applied in the presented paper. There are used induction, deduction, analysis, synthesis, analogy, correlation, and statistical observation methodologies in the work. Main Findings: Based on the analysis of social security reforms in Georgia, the main systematic problems are detected, the recommendations on social security system components, integration of the social security field in the unified insurance system, the formation of the national social system, perfection of the legislative, regulatory framework of social protection, adoption of foreign experience are developed in the article. Conclusion: The article concludes that the social protection system in Georgia is at an early stage of development, with the significant impact of factors such as high level of unemployment, low pensions, a large number of families living under the poverty line, and other ones. Accordingly, it is well-established that the study of the social security problem in Georgia is still actual. Based on the analysis, appropriate suggestions in the field of social security are made, and relevant recommendations are proposed.

Keywords: social security, social system, social policy, social security models

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10311 Does Rumor Shakes Trust: The Role of Emotions in Local Conflict and Peacemaking

Authors: Safiye Ates Burc

Abstract:

This proposal is based on the story of Kurdish tribal conflict and peace in Mardin (Turkey). In the stories that will be detailed with in-depth interviews with the parties to the conflict (family elders, mediators and other tribal lords); It will be examined how rumor has an effect on establishing conflict and peace and whether it shakes the trust between the parties. In fact, this research is still at an ongoing stage. In this paper, the effect of emotions on conflict and reconciliation, which is the main subject of this ongoing study, will be conveyed in line with the data obtained from the preliminary research. In-depth interviews are conducted in the research in which the ethnography method is used. As an early result, it can be said that in organizations such as the Kurdish tribes, where local loyalties and traditions are very strong, the rumor has the potential to shake the trust between the parties and thus can become the excuse for conflict. Because rumors damage the prestige of tribes, that’s, it’s social capital.

Keywords: rumor, trust, Kurdish tribes, local peacemaking, conflict

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10310 Carolina Maria De Jesus' Narrative in a Fundamental Rights Perspective

Authors: Eliziane Fernanda Navarro, Aparecida Eleonora Sitta

Abstract:

Child of the Dark is the work of the Brazilian author Carolina Maria de Jesus, published at the first time by Ática and Francisco Alves in 1960. It is, mostly, a story of lack of rights. It lacks to men who live in the slums what is essential in order to take advantage of the privilege of rationality to develop themselves as civilized humans. It is, therefore, in the withholding of the basic rights that inequality finds space to build itself to be the main misery on Earth. Antonio Candido, a Brazilian sociologist claims that it is the right to literature has the ability to humanize men, once the aptitude to create fiction and fable is essential to the social balance. Hence, for the forming role that literature holds, it must be thought as the number of rights that assure human dignity, such as housing, education, health, freedom, etc. When talking about her routine, Carolina puts in evidence something that has great influence over the formation of human beings, contributing to the way they live: the slum. Even though it happens in a distinct way and using her own linguistics variation, Carolina writes about something that will only be discussed later on Brazil’s Cities Statute and Erminia Maricato: the right to the city, and how the slums are, although inserted in the city, an attachment, an illegal city, a dismissing room. It interests ourselves, for that matter, in this work, to analyse how the deprivation of the rights to the city and literature, detailed in Carolina’s journal, conditions human beings to a life where the instincts overcome the social values.

Keywords: Child of the Dark, slum, literature, architecture and urbanism, fundamental rights, Brazil

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10309 Climate Change Scenario Phenomenon in Malaysia: A Case Study in MADA Area

Authors: Shaidatul Azdawiyah Abdul Talib, Wan Mohd Razi Idris, Liew Ju Neng, Tukimat Lihan, Muhammad Zamir Abdul Rasid

Abstract:

Climate change has received great attention worldwide due to the impact of weather causing extreme events. Rainfall and temperature are crucial weather components associated with climate change. In Malaysia, increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall distribution patterns lead to drought and flood events involving agricultural areas, especially rice fields. Muda Agricultural Development Authority (MADA) is the largest rice growing area among the 10 granary areas in Malaysia and has faced floods and droughts in the past due to changing climate. Changes in rainfall and temperature patter affect rice yield. Therefore, trend analysis is important to identify changes in temperature and rainfall patterns as it gives an initial overview for further analysis. Six locations across the MADA area were selected based on the availability of meteorological station (MetMalaysia) data. Historical data (1991 to 2020) collected from MetMalaysia and future climate projection by multi-model ensemble of climate model from CMIP5 (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) have been analyzed using Mann-Kendall test to detect the time series trend, together with standardized precipitation anomaly, rainfall anomaly index, precipitation concentration index and temperature anomaly. Future projection data were analyzed based on 3 different periods; early century (2020 – 2046), middle century (2047 – 2073) and late-century (2074 – 2099). Results indicate that the MADA area does encounter extremely wet and dry conditions, leading to drought and flood events in the past. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis test discovered a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) in annual rainfall (z = 0.40; s = 15.12) and temperature (z = 0.61; s = 0.04) during the historical period. Similarly, for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) was found for rainfall (RCP 4.5: z = 0.15; s = 2.55; RCP 8.5: z = 0.41; s = 8.05;) and temperature (RCP 4.5: z = 0.84; s = 0.02; RCP 8.5: z = 0.94; s = 0.05). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.6 °C in early century, 2.0 °C in the middle century and 2.4 °C in the late century. In contrast, under RCP 8.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.8 °C in the early century, 3.1 °C in the middle century and 4.3 °C in late century. Drought is projected to occur in 2038 and 2043 (early century); 2052 and 2069 (middle century); and 2095, 2097 to 2099 (late century) under RCP 4.5 scenario. As for RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is projected to occur in 2021, 2031 and 2034 (early century); and 2069 (middle century). No drought is projected to occur in the late century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Thus, this information can be used for the analysis of the impact of climate change scenarios on rice growth and yield besides other crops found in MADA area. Additionally, this study, it would be helpful for researchers and decision-makers in developing applicable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change.

Keywords: climate projection, drought, flood, rainfall, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, temperature

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10308 Factors Effecting the Success and Failure of Social Enterprise in Thailand

Authors: Jatuporn Juyjingam, Pitak Siriwong

Abstract:

This paper presents a study of factors effecting the success and failure of social enterprise in Thailand identifying communication as one of the criteria for measuring the social impact of social enterprise. The study focused on the communication driver of the SCALERS model. The research examines how communication is viewed in Thailand social enterprise. The research aims to determine how selected social enterprise uses communication in their operations. More specifically, the study aims to 1) describe the profile of social enterprise in Thailand, 2) identify the different roles of communication in the operation of social enterprise in Thailand, 3) determine Thailand social enterprise concept of communication. The study made use of the case study and cross case study research designs. For the profiling of the social enterprises, the case study was used. The researchers made use of the cross-case research design in identifying trends across the ten social enterprises and in determining the social entrepreneurs’ concept of communication. Key informant interviews were conducted with the heads or representatives of selected social enterprises, a three-part interview schedule was used to facilitate data gathering. The three parts included are 1) Profile of social enterprise in Thailand 2) How social enterprises apply communication in their operations 3) What is the key success in using communication among social enterprise in Thailand. This study is an exploratory research.

Keywords: communication, social entrepreneurship, social enterprise, sustainability development

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10307 Islamic Social Security: A Discourse

Authors: Safiyya A. Abba, Shehu U. R. Aliyu

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This paper deals with Islamic social security: a discourse explores the meaning and nature of Islamic social security system. The paper reviews the social security framework and operations during the early period. The paper further identifies the instruments of Islamic social security discusses its principles and objectives. The paper discovers that Islamic social security is a personification of a comprehensive welfare approach in view of its varied instruments that are deeply rooted in the Islamic law, unique principles and realistic and achievable objectives. Furthermore, the Islamic social security system has far reaching socioeconomic implications; social justice, cohesion, equity, a catalyst for poverty eradication, income redistribution, economic growth and development.

Keywords: Islamic social security, basic needs, zakat, socioeconomic justice, equity

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10306 Evaluation Framework for Investments in Rail Infrastructure Projects

Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki

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Transport infrastructures are high-cost, long-term investments that serve as vital foundations for the operation of a region or nation and are essential to a country’s or business’s economic development and prosperity, by improving well-being and generating jobs and income. The development of appropriate financing options is of key importance in the decision making process in order develop viable transport infrastructures. The development of transport infrastructure has increasingly been shifting toward alternative methods of project financing such as Public Private Partnership (PPPs) and hybrid forms. In this paper, a methodological decision-making framework based on the evaluation of the financial viability of transportation infrastructure for different financial schemes is presented. The framework leads to an assessment of the financial viability which can be achieved by performing various financing scenarios analyses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, a case study of rail transport infrastructure financing scenario analysis in Greece is developed.

Keywords: rail transport infrastructure, financial viability, scenario analysis, rail project feasibility

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10305 Future Research on the Resilience of Tehran’s Urban Areas Against Pandemic Crises Horizon 2050

Authors: Farzaneh Sasanpour, Saeed Amini Varaki

Abstract:

Resilience is an important goal for cities as urban areas face an increasing range of challenges in the 21st century; therefore, according to the characteristics of risks, adopting an approach that responds to sensitive conditions in the risk management process is the resilience of cities. In the meantime, most of the resilience assessments have dealt with natural hazards and less attention has been paid to pandemics.In the covid-19 pandemic, the country of Iran and especially the metropolis of Tehran, was not immune from the crisis caused by its effects and consequences and faced many challenges. One of the methods that can increase the resilience of Tehran's metropolis against possible crises in the future is future studies. This research is practical in terms of type. The general pattern of the research will be descriptive-analytical and from the point of view that it is trying to communicate between the components and provide urban resilience indicators with pandemic crises and explain the scenarios, its future studies method is exploratory. In order to extract and determine the key factors and driving forces effective on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), the method of structural analysis of mutual effects and Micmac software was used. Therefore, the primary factors and variables affecting the resilience of Tehran's urban areas were set in 5 main factors, including physical-infrastructural (transportation, spatial and physical organization, streets and roads, multi-purpose development) with 39 variables based on mutual effects analysis. Finally, key factors and variables in five main areas, including managerial-institutional with five variables; Technology (intelligence) with 3 variables; economic with 2 variables; socio-cultural with 3 variables; and physical infrastructure, were categorized with 7 variables. These factors and variables have been used as key factors and effective driving forces on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), in explaining and developing scenarios. In order to develop the scenarios for the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), intuitive logic, scenario planning as one of the future research methods and the Global Business Network (GBN) model were used. Finally, four scenarios have been drawn and selected with a creative method using the metaphor of weather conditions, which is indicative of the general outline of the conditions of the metropolis of Tehran in that situation. Therefore, the scenarios of Tehran metropolis were obtained in the form of four scenarios: 1- solar scenario (optimal governance and management leading in smart technology) 2- cloud scenario (optimal governance and management following in intelligent technology) 3- dark scenario (optimal governance and management Unfavorable leader in intelligence technology) 4- Storm scenario (unfavorable governance and management of follower in intelligence technology). The solar scenario shows the best situation and the stormy scenario shows the worst situation for the Tehran metropolis. According to the findings obtained in this research, city managers can, in order to achieve a better tomorrow for the metropolis of Tehran, in all the factors and components of urban resilience against pandemic crises by using future research methods, a coherent picture with the long-term horizon of 2050, from the path Provide urban resilience movement and platforms for upgrading and increasing the capacity to deal with the crisis. To create the necessary platforms for the realization, development and evolution of the urban areas of Tehran in a way that guarantees long-term balance and stability in all dimensions and levels.

Keywords: future research, resilience, crisis, pandemic, covid-19, Tehran

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10304 The Age Difference in Social Skills Constructs for School Adaptation: A Cross-Sectional Study of Japanese Students at Elementary, Junior, and Senior High School

Authors: Hiroki Shinkawa, Tadaaki Tomiie

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Many interventions for social skills acquisition aim to decrease the gap between social skills deficits in the individual and normative social skills; nevertheless little is known of typical social skills according to age difference in students. In this study, we developed new quintet of Hokkaido Social Skills Inventory (HSSI) in order to identify age-appropriate social skills for school adaptation. First, we selected 13 categories of social skills for school adaptation from previous studies, and created questionnaire items through discussion by 25 teachers in all three levels from elementary schools to senior high schools. Second, the factor structures of five versions of the social skills scale were investigated on 2nd grade (n = 1,864), 4th grade (n = 1,936), 6th grade (n = 2,085), 7th grade (n = 2,007), and 10th grade (n = 912) students, respectively. The exploratory factor analysis showed that a number of constructing factors of social skills increased as one’s grade in school advanced. The results in the present study can be useful to characterize the age-appropriate social skills for school adaptation.

Keywords: social skills, age difference, children, adolescents

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10303 Research on Coordination Strategies for Coordinating Supply Chain Based on Auction Mechanisms

Authors: Changtong Wang, Lingyun Wei

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The combination of auctions and supply chains is of great significance in improving the supply chain management system and enhancing the efficiency of economic and social operations. To address the gap in research on supply chain strategies under the auction mechanism, a model is developed for the 1-N auction model in a complete information environment, and it is concluded that the two-part contract auction model for retailers in this model can achieve supply chain coordination. The model is validated by substituting the model into the scenario of a fresh-cut flower industry flower auction in exchange for arithmetic examples to further prove the validity of the conclusions.

Keywords: auction mechanism, supply chain coordination strategy, fresh cut flowers industry, supply chain management

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10302 Renewable Energy Storage Capacity Rating: A Forecast of Selected Load and Resource Scenario in Nigeria

Authors: Yakubu Adamu, Baba Alfa, Salahudeen Adamu Gene

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As the drive towards clean, renewable and sustainable energy generation is gradually been reshaped by renewable penetration over time, energy storage has thus, become an optimal solution for utilities looking to reduce transmission and capacity cost, therefore the need for capacity resources to be adjusted accordingly such that renewable energy storage may have the opportunity to substitute for retiring conventional energy systems with higher capacity factors. Considering the Nigeria scenario, where Over 80% of the current Nigerian primary energy consumption is met by petroleum, electricity demand is set to more than double by mid-century, relative to 2025 levels. With renewable energy penetration rapidly increasing, in particular biomass, hydro power, solar and wind energy, it is expected to account for the largest share of power output in the coming decades. Despite this rapid growth, the imbalance between load and resources has created a hindrance to the development of energy storage capacity, load and resources, hence forecasting energy storage capacity will therefore play an important role in maintaining the balance between load and resources including supply and demand. Therefore, the degree to which this might occur, its timing and more importantly its sustainability, is the subject matter of the current research. Here, we forecast the future energy storage capacity rating and thus, evaluate the load and resource scenario in Nigeria. In doing so, We used the scenario-based International Energy Agency models, the projected energy demand and supply structure of the country through 2030 are presented and analysed. Overall, this shows that in high renewable (solar) penetration scenarios in Nigeria, energy storage with 4-6h duration can obtain over 86% capacity rating with storage comprising about 24% of peak load capacity. Therefore, the general takeaway from the current study is that most power systems currently used has the potential to support fairly large penetrations of 4-6 hour storage as capacity resources prior to a substantial reduction in capacity ratings. The data presented in this paper is a crucial eye-opener for relevant government agencies towards developing these energy resources in tackling the present energy crisis in Nigeria. However, if the transformation of the Nigeria. power system continues primarily through expansion of renewable generation, then longer duration energy storage will be needed to qualify as capacity resources. Hence, the analytical task from the current survey will help to determine whether and when long-duration storage becomes an integral component of the capacity mix that is expected in Nigeria by 2030.

Keywords: capacity, energy, power system, storage

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10301 Impact Evaluation of Discriminant Analysis on Epidemic Protocol in Warships’s Scenarios

Authors: Davi Marinho de Araujo Falcão, Ronaldo Moreira Salles, Paulo Henrique Maranhão

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Disruption Tolerant Networks (DTN) are an evolution of Mobile Adhoc Networks (MANET) and work good in scenarioswhere nodes are sparsely distributed, with low density, intermittent connections and an end-to-end infrastructure is not possible to guarantee. Therefore, DTNs are recommended for high latency applications that can last from hours to days. The maritime scenario has mobility characteristics that contribute to a DTN network approach, but the concern with data security is also a relevant aspect in such scenarios. Continuing the previous work, which evaluated the performance of some DTN protocols (Epidemic, Spray and Wait, and Direct Delivery) in three warship scenarios and proposed the application of discriminant analysis, as a classification technique for secure connections, in the Epidemic protocol, thus, the current article proposes a new analysis of the directional discriminant function with opening angles smaller than 90 degrees, demonstrating that the increase in directivity influences the selection of a greater number of secure connections by the directional discriminant Epidemic protocol.

Keywords: DTN, discriminant function, epidemic protocol, security, tactical messages, warship scenario

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10300 Law, Regulatory Transformations and Evolving Paradigm: The Case of Corporate Social Responsibility in India

Authors: Shuchi Bharti

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This article intends to analyse the transforming nature of state and corporate sector relationship in the light of evolving regulatory and institutional aspects pertaining to Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in India. The focus is on evaluating the accounts of law and decentred discourses, relevant within the changing regulatory and institutional paradigm that substantially goes ahead of formal legal control of state towards corporate actors. At this vantage point, it is important to understand the state’s posture towards a changing scenario particularly as the tone is set by regulatory parameters pertaining to CSR to drive process of engagement with the stakeholders. The tripartite framework of the article intends to focus on finding on the vital interconnected aspects of the CSR provisions (Section 135) of The Companies Act 2013 (The Act), rise of new institutions and the emergence of the decentred regulatory space. Thus is earmarked in a neo-liberal paradigm; state is witnessed to perform a responsive function in engendering enhanced public role for the corporate sector. In this overarching framework the aim is to undertake a causal, exploratory and relational analysis of aspects pertaining law, regulation and institutional transformations. Firstly, focus is drawn on to investigate the relational facets of the advent of law and regulatory framework of CSR. Secondly, in the light of the historical evolution, a causal connection is attempted between globalization, emergence of international soft law framework and the Indian case of CSR. Finally, I look into how the new Companies Act mandates CSR expenditure vis- a -vis multiple parameters and guidelines.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, stakeholders, soft law, decentred regulation

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10299 The Psychologist's Role in a Social Assistance Reference Center: A Case of Violence and Child Sexual Abuse in Northeastern Brazil

Authors: G. Melo, J. Felix, S. Maciel, C. Fernandes, W. Rodrigues

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In Brazilian public policy, the Centres of Reference for Social Assistance (CRAS in Portuguese) are part of the Unified Social Assistance System (SUAS in Portuguese). SUAS is responsible for addressing spontaneous or currently active cases that are brought forth from other services in the social assistance network. The following case was reviewed by CRAS’s team in Recife, Brazil, after a complaint of child abuse was filed against the mother of a 7-year-old girl by the girl’s aunt. The girl is the daughter of an incestuous relationship between her mother and her older brother. The complaint was registered by service staff and five interventions were subsequently carried out on behalf of the child. These interventions provided a secure place for dialogue with both the child and her family and allowed for an investigation of the abuse to proceed. They took place in the child’s school as well as her aunt’s residence. At school, the child (with her classmates) watched a video and listened to a song about the prevention of child abuse. This was followed up with a second intervention to determine any signs of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), by having the child play with the mobile app ‘My Angela’. Books on the themes of family and fear were also read to the child on different occasions at her school – after every intervention she was asked to draw something related to fear and her concept of a family. After the interventions and discussing the case as a team, we reached several conclusions: 1) The child did not appear to show any symptoms of PTSD; 2) She normally fantasized about her future and life story; 3) She did not allow herself to be touched by strangers with whom she lacks a close relationship (such as classmates or her teacher); 4) Through her drawings, she reproduced the conversations she had had with the staff; 5) She habitually covered her drawings when asked questions about the abuse. In this particular clinical case, we want to highlight that the role of the Psychologist’s intervention at CRAS is to attempt to resolve the issue promptly (and not to develop a prolonged clinical study based on traditional methods), by making use of the available tools from the social assistance network, and by making referrals to the relevant authorities, such as the Public Ministry, so that final protective actions can be taken and enforced. In this case, the Guardian Council of the Brazilian Public Ministry was asked to transfer the custody of the child to her uncle. The mother of the child was sent to a CAPS (Centre for Psychosocial Care), having been diagnosed with psychopathology. The child would then participate in NGO programs that allow for a gradual reduction of social exposure to her mother before being transferred to her uncle’s custody in Sao Paulo.

Keywords: child abuse, intervention, social psychology, violence

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10298 China-Africa Diplomatic Discourse: Reconstructing the Principle of “Yi” as a Framework for Analyzing Sino-Africa Cooperation

Authors: Modestus Queen

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As we know, diplomatic languages carry the political ideology and cultural stance of the country. Knowing that China's diplomatic discourse is complicated and is heavily flavored with Chinese characteristics, one of the core goals of President Xi's administration is to properly tell the story of China. This cannot be done without proper translation or interpretation of major Chinese diplomatic concepts. Therefore, this research seeks to interpret the relevance of "Yi" as used in "Zhèngquè Yì Lì Guān". The author argues that it is not enough to translate a document but that it must be properly interpreted to portray it as political, economic, cultural and diplomatic relevant to the target audience, in this case, African people. The first finding in the current study indicates that literal translation is a bad strategy, especially in Chinese diplomatic discourses. The second finding indicates that "Yi" can be used as a framework to analyze Sino-Africa relations from economic, social and political perspectives, and the third finding indicates that "Yi" is the guiding principle of China's foreign policy towards Africa.

Keywords: Yi, justice, China-Africa, interpretation, diplomatic discourse, discourse reconstruction

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10297 Simulation Analysis of a Full-Scale Five-Story Building with Vibration Control Dampers

Authors: Naohiro Nakamura

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Analysis methods to accurately estimate the behavior of buildings when earthquakes occur is very important for improving the seismic safety of such buildings. Recently, the use of damping devices has increased significantly and there is a particular need to appropriately evaluate the behavior of buildings with such devices during earthquakes in the design stage. At present, however, the accuracy of the analysis evaluations is not sufficient. One reason is that the accuracy of current analysis methods has not been appropriately verified because there is very limited data on the behavior of actual buildings during earthquakes. Many types of shaking table test of large structures are performed at the '3-Dimensional Full-Scale Earthquake Testing Facility' (nicknamed 'E-Defense') operated by the National Research Institute of Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED). In this study, simulations using 3- dimensional analysis models were conducted on shaking table test of a 5-story steel-frame structure with dampers. The results of the analysis correspond favorably to the test results announced afterward by the committee. However, the suitability of the parameters and models used in the analysis and the influence they had on the responses remain unclear. Hence, we conducted additional analysis and studies on these models and parameters. In this paper, outlines of the test are shown and the utilized analysis model is explained. Next, the analysis results are compared with the test results. Then, the additional analyses, concerning with the hysteresis curve of the dampers and the beam-end stiffness of the frame, are investigated.

Keywords: three-dimensional analysis, E-defense, full-scale experimen, vibration control damper

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10296 Social Media Use and Social Connectedness

Authors: Jessica Torres, James W. Sturges

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This correlational study explored the potential relationship between social media use and social connectedness. College students (n = 190) were surveyed using the revised Social Connectedness Scale (SCS-R) and were asked about the number of hours they used social media platforms such as Instagram, TikTok, Twitter, Snapchat, and Facebook. We also developed and administered a 14-item Social Media Use Scale (SMUS) to measure potentially maladaptive social media use, such as use that likely interfered with other activities. The SMUS was found to have good inter-item consistency (Cronbach’s alpha = .92) and was significantly correlated with hours of use, r(182) = .622, p < .001. As expected, we found that the SCS-R scores were inversely related to total hours of social media use, r(182) = -.188 (p < .005). This suggested that lots of time allocated to online interactions is negatively associated with social connectedness in general. Interestingly, however, higher social connectedness scores were associated specifically with Snapchat use, r(28) = .210, p = .004. This may have to do with the specific nature of the Snapchat experience and perhaps its original use for one-to-one communication. The use of other social media platforms (Tiktok, Instagram, Twitter) was not related to better social connectedness scores. Although we failed to find that scores on our measure of problem use (the SMUS) were correlated with social connectedness, we are hopeful that the SMUS will be of use in identifying patterns of maladaptive social media use that may have an impact on other important outcome measures of adaptive functioning and well-being.

Keywords: adaptive functioning, college students, social connectedness, social media use

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