Search results for: score prediction

Authors: Feng Guolin, Gong Zhiqiang

Abstract:

In order to study the spatial structure and dynamical mechanism of extreme precipitation in East Asia, a corresponding climate network is constructed by employing the method of event synchronization. It is found that the area of East Asian summer extreme precipitation can be separated into two regions: one with high area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation mostly during the active phase of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and another one with low area weighted connectivity receiving heavy precipitation during both the active and the retreat phase of the EASM. Besides，a way for the prediction of extreme precipitation is also developed by constructing a directed climate networks. The simulation accuracy in East Asia is 58% with a 0-day lead, and the prediction accuracy is 21% and average 12% with a 1-day and an n-day (2≤n≤10) lead, respectively. Compare to the normal EASM year, the prediction accuracy is lower in a weak year and higher in a strong year, which is relevant to the differences in correlations and extreme precipitation rates in different EASM situations. Recognizing and identifying these effects is good for understanding and predicting extreme precipitation in East Asia.

Keywords: synchronization, climate network, prediction, rainfall

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

Abstract:

Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 399

Authors: Ulas Vural, M. Ergun Okay, E. Mesut Yildiz

Abstract:

Telecommunication service providers demand accurate and precise prediction of customer churn probabilities to increase the effectiveness of their customer relation services. The large amount of customer data owned by the service providers is suitable for analysis by machine learning methods. In this study, expenditure data of customers are analyzed by using an artificial neural network (ANN). The ANN model is applied to the data of customers with different billing duration. The proposed model successfully predicts the churn probabilities at 83% accuracy for only three months expenditure data and the prediction accuracy increases up to 89% when the nine month data is used. The experiments also show that the accuracy of ANN model increases on an extended feature set with information of the changes on the bill amounts.

Keywords: customer relationship management, churn prediction, telecom industry, deep learning, artificial neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: Shraddha Jain Sharma, Ratnalata Gupta

Abstract:

Predicting stock movements in the financial market is both difficult and rewarding. Analysts and academics are increasingly using advanced approaches such as machine learning techniques to anticipate stock price patterns, thanks to the expanding capacity of computing and the recent advent of graphics processing units and tensor processing units. Stock market prediction is a type of time series prediction that is incredibly difficult to do since stock prices are influenced by a variety of financial, socioeconomic, and political factors. Furthermore, even minor mistakes in stock market price forecasts can result in significant losses for companies that employ the findings of stock market price prediction for financial analysis and investment. Soft computing techniques are increasingly being employed for stock market prediction due to their better accuracy than traditional statistical methodologies. The proposed research looks at the need for soft computing techniques in stock market prediction, the numerous soft computing approaches that are important to the field, past work in the area with their prominent features, and the significant problems or issue domain that the area involves. For constructing a predictive model, the major focus is on neural networks and fuzzy logic. The stock market is extremely unpredictable, and it is unquestionably tough to correctly predict based on certain characteristics. This study provides a complete overview of the numerous strategies investigated for high accuracy prediction, with a focus on the most important characteristics.

Keywords: stock market prediction, artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, accuracy, deep learning, machine learning, stock price, trading volume

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Nicolas Koslover, Tamara Levene

Abstract:

Aims: Tonsilitis is one of the most common presentations to the A+E department. We aimed to assess whether patients presenting with tonsilitis are being managed in-line with current guidance. We then set out to educate A+E staff about tonsilitis management and then assessed for improvement in management. Methods: All patients presenting to A+E in one fortnight with a documented diagnosis of tonsilitis were included. We reviewed the notes to assess the choice of treatment in each case and whether a clinical score (CENTOR or FEVERPain score) was used to guide choice of treatment (in accordance with NICE guideline [NG84]). We designed and delivered an educational intervention for A+E staff covering tonsilitis guidelines. The audit was repeated two weeks later. Results: Over the study period, 49 patients were included; only 35% (n=17) had either a clinical score documented or had all components of a score recorded. In total, 39% (n=19) were treated with antibiotics. Of these, 63% (n=12) should not have been prescribed an antibiotic and 37% (n=7) were prescribed an inappropriate antibiotic. At re-audit, (n=50 cases), 58% (n=29) had a clinical score documented and 28% (n=14) were treated with antibiotics. Of these, 29% (n=4) should not have been prescribed antibiotics and 21% (n=3) were prescribed an inappropriate antibiotic. Thus, after this teaching session, there was a significant improvement in antibiotic prescribing practices (63% vs. 29%, p=0.026). Conclusions: A+E assessment and management of tonsilitis frequently deviated from guidelines, but a single teaching session vastly improved clinical scoring and antibiotic prescribing practices.

Keywords: tonsilitis, education, emergency medicine, ENT

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Mohamed Aly, Aliaa Rehan Youssef, Emad Sawerees, Mounir Guirgis

Abstract:

Relevance: Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common degenerative disease seen in all populations. It causes disability and substantial socioeconomic burden. Evidence supports that exercise are the most effective conservative treatment for patients with OA. Therapists experience and clinical judgment play major role in exercise prescription and scientific evidence for this regard is lacking. The development of clinical prediction rules to identify patients who are most likely benefit from exercise may help solving this dilemma. Purpose: This study investigated whether body mass index and functional ability at baseline can predict patients’ response to a selected exercise program. Approach: Fifty-six patients, aged 35 to 65 years, completed an exercise program consisting of open kinetic chain strengthening and passive stretching exercises. The program was given for 3 sessions per week, 45 minutes per session, for 6 weeks Evaluation: At baseline and post treatment, pain severity was assessed using the numerical pain rating scale, whereas functional ability was being assessed by step test (ST), time up and go test (TUG) and 50 feet time walk test (50 FTW). After completing the program, global rate of change (GROC) score of greater than 4 was used to categorize patients as successful and non-successful. Thirty-eight patients (68%) had successful response to the intervention. Logistic regression showed that BMI and 50 FTW test were the only significant predictors. Based on the results, patients with BMI less than 34.71 kg/m2 and 50 FTW test less than 25.64 sec are 68% to 89% more likely to benefit from the exercise program. Conclusions: Clinicians should consider the described strengthening and flexibility exercise program for patents with BMI less than 34.7 Kg/m2 and 50 FTW faster than 25.6 seconds. The validity of these predictors should be investigated for other exercise.

Keywords: clinical prediction rule, knee osteoarthritis, physical therapy exercises, validity

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong

Abstract:

In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.

Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, cross-correlation, avalanches, prediction method

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Phang Moon Leng

Abstract:

Automated Early Warning Scores is a newly developed clinical decision tool that is used to streamline and improve the process of obtaining a patient’s vital signs so a clinical decision can be made at an earlier stage to prevent the patient from further deterioration. This technology provides immediate update on the score and clinical decision to be taken based on the outcome. This paper aims to study the use of an automated early warning score system on whether the technology has assisted the hospital in early detection and escalation of clinical condition and improve patient outcome. The hospital adopted the Modified Early Warning Scores (MEWS) Scoring System and MEWS Clinical Response into Philips IntelliVue Guardian Automated Early Warning Score equipment and studied whether the process has been leaned, whether the use of technology improved the usage & experience of the nurses, and whether the technology has improved patient care and outcome. It was found the steps required to obtain vital signs has been significantly reduced and is used more frequently to obtain patient vital signs. The number of deaths, and length of stay has significantly decreased as clinical decisions can be made and escalated more quickly with the Automated EWS. The automated early warning score equipment has helped improve work efficiency by removing the need for documenting into patient’s EMR. The technology streamlines clinical decision-making and allows faster care and intervention to be carried out and improves overall patient outcome which translates to better care for patient.

Keywords: automated early warning score, clinical quality and safety, patient safety, medical technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Yalçın Bozkurt

Abstract:

Prediction models were developed for accurate prediction of bodyweight (BW) by using Digital Images of beef cattle body dimensions by Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). For this purpose, the animal data were collected at a private slaughter house and the digital images and the weights of each live animal were taken just before they were slaughtered and the body dimensions such as digital wither height (DJWH), digital body length (DJBL), digital body depth (DJBD), digital hip width (DJHW), digital hip height (DJHH) and digital pin bone length (DJPL) were determined from the images, using the data with 1069 observations for each traits. Then, prediction models were developed by ANN. Digital body measurements were analysed by ANN for body prediction and R2 values of DJBL, DJWH, DJHW, DJBD, DJHH and DJPL were approximately 94.32, 91.31, 80.70, 83.61, 89.45 and 70.56 % respectively. It can be concluded that in management situations where BW cannot be measured it can be predicted accurately by measuring DJBL and DJWH alone or both DJBD and even DJHH and different models may be needed to predict BW in different feeding and environmental conditions and breeds

Keywords: artificial neural networks, bodyweight, cattle, digital body measurements

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Naman Solanki, Souraj Mondal

Abstract:

With the world moving towards online communication, the video datastore has exploded in the past few years. Consequently, it has become crucial to analyse participant’s engagement levels in online communication videos. Engagement prediction of people in videos can be useful in many domains, like education, client meetings, dating, etc. Video-level or frame-level prediction of engagement for a user involves the development of robust models that can capture facial micro-emotions efficiently. For the development of an engagement prediction model, it is necessary to have a widely-accepted standard dataset for engagement analysis. DAiSEE is one of the datasets which consist of in-the-wild data and has a gold standard annotation for engagement prediction. Earlier research done using the DAiSEE dataset involved training and testing standard models like CNN-based models, but the results were not satisfactory according to industry standards. In this paper, a multi-level classification approach has been introduced to create a more robust model for engagement analysis using the DAiSEE dataset. This approach has recorded testing accuracies of 0.638, 0.7728, 0.8195, and 0.866 for predicting boredom level, engagement level, confusion level, and frustration level, respectively.

Keywords: computer vision, engagement prediction, deep learning, multi-level classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Bin Li, Mei Liu

Abstract:

Arrival time information is a crucial component of advanced public transport system (APTS). The advertisement of arrival time at stops can help reduce the waiting time and anxiety of passengers, and improve the quality of service. In this research, an experiment was conducted to compare the performance on prediction accuracy and precision between the link-based and the path-based historical travel time based model with the automatic vehicle location (AVL) data collected from an actual bus route. The research results show that the path-based model is superior to the link-based model, and achieves the best improvement on peak hours.

Keywords: bus transit, arrival time prediction, link-based, path-based

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Sohyoung Won, Heebal Kim, Dajeong Lim

Abstract:

Genomic prediction is an effective way to measure the abilities of livestock for breeding based on genomic estimated breeding values, statistically predicted values from genotype data using best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). Using haplotypes, clusters of linked single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), as markers instead of individual SNPs can improve the reliability of genomic prediction since the probability of a quantitative trait loci to be in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) with markers is higher. To efficiently use haplotypes in genomic prediction, finding optimal ways to define haplotypes is needed. In this study, 770K SNP chip data was collected from Hanwoo (Korean cattle) population consisted of 2506 cattle. Haplotypes were first defined in three different ways using 770K SNP chip data: haplotypes were defined based on 1) length of haplotypes (bp), 2) the number of SNPs, and 3) k-medoids clustering by LD. To compare the methods in parallel, haplotypes defined by all methods were set to have comparable sizes; in each method, haplotypes defined to have an average number of 5, 10, 20 or 50 SNPs were tested respectively. A modified GBLUP method using haplotype alleles as predictor variables was implemented for testing the prediction reliability of each haplotype set. Also, conventional genomic BLUP (GBLUP) method, which uses individual SNPs were tested to evaluate the performance of the haplotype sets on genomic prediction. Carcass weight was used as the phenotype for testing. As a result, using haplotypes defined by all three methods showed increased reliability compared to conventional GBLUP. There were not many differences in the reliability between different haplotype defining methods. The reliability of genomic prediction was highest when the average number of SNPs per haplotype was 20 in all three methods, implying that haplotypes including around 20 SNPs can be optimal to use as markers for genomic prediction. When the number of alleles generated by each haplotype defining methods was compared, clustering by LD generated the least number of alleles. Using haplotype alleles for genomic prediction showed better performance, suggesting improved accuracy in genomic selection. The number of predictor variables was decreased when the LD-based method was used while all three haplotype defining methods showed similar performances. This suggests that defining haplotypes based on LD can reduce computational costs and allows efficient prediction. Finding optimal ways to define haplotypes and using the haplotype alleles as markers can provide improved performance and efficiency in genomic prediction.

Keywords: best linear unbiased predictor, genomic prediction, haplotype, linkage disequilibrium

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Bikis Muhammed, Sehra Sedigh Sarvestani, Ali R. Hurson, Lasanthi Gamage

Abstract:

Vehicular traffic events have overly complex spatial correlations and temporal interdependencies and are also influenced by environmental events such as weather conditions. To capture these spatial and temporal interdependencies and make more realistic vehicular traffic predictions, graph neural networks (GNN) based traffic prediction models have been extensively utilized due to their capability of capturing non-Euclidean spatial correlation very effectively. However, most of the already existing GNN-based traffic prediction models have some limitations during learning complex and dynamic spatial and temporal patterns due to the following missing factors. First, most GNN-based traffic prediction models have used static distance or sometimes haversine distance mechanisms between spatially separated traffic observations to estimate spatial correlation. Secondly, most GNN-based traffic prediction models have not incorporated environmental events that have a major impact on the normal traffic states. Finally, most of the GNN-based models did not use an attention mechanism to focus on only important traffic observations. The objective of this paper is to study and make real-time vehicular traffic predictions while incorporating the effect of weather conditions. To fill the previously mentioned gaps, our prediction model uses a real-time driving distance between sensors to build a distance matrix or spatial adjacency matrix and capture spatial correlation. In addition, our prediction model considers the effect of six types of weather conditions and has an attention mechanism in both spatial and temporal data aggregation. Our prediction model efficiently captures the spatial and temporal correlation between traffic events, and it relies on the graph attention network (GAT) and Bidirectional bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) plus attention layers and is called GAT-BILSTMA.

Keywords: deep learning, real time prediction, GAT, Bi-LSTM, attention

Procedia PDF Downloads 48

Authors: Mohammad Zavid Parvez, Manoranjan Paul

Abstract:

Epilepsy is a common neurological disorders characterized by sudden recurrent seizures. Electroencephalogram (EEG) is widely used to diagnose possible epileptic seizure. Many research works have been devoted to predict epileptic seizure by analyzing EEG signal. Seizure prediction by analyzing EEG signals are challenging task due to variations of brain signals of different patients. In this paper, we propose a new approach for feature extraction based on phase correlation in EEG signals. In phase correlation, we calculate relative change between two consecutive segments of an EEG signal and then combine the changes with neighboring signals to extract features. These features are then used to classify preictal/ictal and interictal EEG signals for seizure prediction. Experiment results show that the proposed method carries good prediction rate with greater consistence for the benchmark data set in different brain locations compared to the existing state-of-the-art methods.

Keywords: EEG, epilepsy, phase correlation, seizure

Procedia PDF Downloads 281

Authors: Pallavi Mane, Nikita Mankar, Shraddha Mazire, Rasika Pashankar

Abstract:

Content sharing sites are very useful in sharing information and images. However, with the increasing demand of content sharing sites privacy and security concern have also increased. There is need to develop a tool for controlling user access to their shared content. Therefore, we are developing an Adaptive Privacy Policy Prediction (A3P) system which is helpful for users to create privacy settings for their images. We propose the two-level framework which assigns the best available privacy policy for the users images according to users available histories on the site.

Keywords: online information services, prediction, security and protection, web based services

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Nagini Sabbineni, Rajini T. V. Kanth, B. V. Kiranmayee

Abstract:

India’s economy primarily depends on agriculture yield growth and their allied agro industry products. The agriculture yield prediction is the toughest task for agricultural departments across the globe. The agriculture yield depends on various factors. Particularly countries like India, majority of agriculture growth depends on rain water, which is highly unpredictable. Agriculture growth depends on different parameters, namely Water, Nitrogen, Weather, Soil characteristics, Crop rotation, Soil moisture, Surface temperature and Rain water etc. In our paper, lot of Explorative Data Analysis is done and various predictive models were designed. Further various regression models like Linear, Multiple Linear, Non-linear models are tested for the effective prediction or the forecast of the agriculture yield for various crops in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states.

Keywords: agriculture yield growth, agriculture yield prediction, explorative data analysis, predictive models, regression models

Procedia PDF Downloads 277

Authors: Ahmad Saleem

Abstract:

Ethereum is the second largest crypto currency in blockchain ecosystem. Along with standard transactions, it supports smart contracts and NFT’s. Current research trends are focused on analyzing the overall structure of the network its growth and behavior. Ethereum addresses are anonymous and can be created on fly. The nature of Ethereum network and addresses make it hard to predict their behavior. The activity period of an ethereum address is not much analyzed. Using machine learning we can make early prediction about the disposability of the address. In this paper we analyzed the lifetime of the addresses. We also identified and predicted the disposable addresses using machine learning models and compared the results.

Keywords: blockchain, Ethereum, cryptocurrency, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Umesh Kumar Singh, Chanchala Joshi

Abstract:

With increasing dependency on IT infrastructure, the main objective of a system administrator is to maintain a stable and secure network, with ensuring that the network is robust enough against malicious network users like attackers and intruders. Security risk management provides a way to manage the growing threats to infrastructures or system. This paper proposes a framework for risk level estimation which uses vulnerability database National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) National Vulnerability Database (NVD) and the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The proposed framework measures the frequency of vulnerability exploitation; converges this measured frequency with standard CVSS score and estimates the security risk level which helps in automated and reasonable security management. In this paper equation for the Temporal score calculation with respect to availability of remediation plan is derived and further, frequency of exploitation is calculated with determined temporal score. The frequency of exploitation along with CVSS score is used to calculate the security risk level of the system. The proposed framework uses the CVSS vectors for risk level estimation and measures the security level of specific network environment, which assists system administrator for assessment of security risks and making decision related to mitigation of security risks.

Keywords: CVSS score, risk level, security measurement, vulnerability category

Procedia PDF Downloads 296

Authors: Shogo Kato, Daisuke Okamoto, Satoko Tsuru, Yoshinori Iizuka, Ryoko Shimono

Abstract:

Healthcare safety has been perceived important. It is essential to prevent troubles in healthcare processes for healthcare safety. Trouble prevention is based on trouble prediction using accumulated knowledge on processes, troubles, and countermeasures. However, information on troubles has not been accumulated in hospitals in the appropriate structure, and it has not been utilized effectively to prevent troubles. In the previous study, though a detailed knowledge acquisition process for trouble prediction was proposed, the knowledgebase for countermeasures was not involved. In this paper, we aim to propose the structure of the knowledgebase for countermeasures in the knowledge acquisition process for trouble prediction in healthcare process. We first design the structure of countermeasures and propose the knowledge representation form on countermeasures. Then, we evaluate the validity of the proposal, by applying it into an actual hospital.

Keywords: trouble prevention, knowledge structure, structured knowledge, reusable knowledge

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Naridchaya Aberdour, Joanna Kao, Anne Miller, Timothy Shore, Richard Maher, Zhixin Liu

Abstract:

Background: COVID-19 has and continues to be a strain on healthcare globally, with the number of patients requiring hospitalization exceeding the level of medical support available in many countries. As chest x-rays are the primary respiratory radiological investigation, the Radiological Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) score was used to quantify the extent of pulmonary infection on baseline imaging. Assessment of RALE score's reproducibility and associations with clinical outcome parameters were then evaluated to determine implications for patient management and prognosis. Methods: A retrospective study was performed with the inclusion of patients testing positive for COVID-19 on nasopharyngeal swab within a single Local Health District in Sydney, Australia and baseline x-ray imaging acquired between January to June 2020. Two independent Radiologists viewed the studies and calculated the RALE scores. Clinical outcome parameters were collected and statistical analysis was performed to assess RALE score reproducibility and possible associations with clinical outcomes. Results: A total of 78 patients met inclusion criteria with the age range of 4 to 91 years old. RALE score concordance between the two independent Radiologists was excellent (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.88-0.95, p<0.005). Binomial logistics regression identified a positive correlation with hospital admission (1.87 OR, 95% CI= 1.3-2.6, p<0.005), oxygen requirement (1.48 OR, 95% CI= 1.2-1.8, p<0.005) and invasive ventilation (1.2 OR, 95% CI= 1.0-1.3, p<0.005) for each 1-point increase in RALE score. For each one year increased in age, there was a negative correlation with recovery (0.05 OR, 95% CI= 0.92-1.0, p<0.01). RALE scores above three were positively associated with hospitalization (Youden Index 0.61, sensitivity 0.73, specificity 0.89) and above six were positively associated with ICU admission (Youden Index 0.67, sensitivity 0.91, specificity 0.78). Conclusion: The RALE score can be used as a surrogate to quantify the extent of COVID-19 infection and has an excellent inter-observer agreement. The RALE score could be used to prognosticate and identify patients at high risk of deterioration. Threshold values may also be applied to predict the likelihood of hospital and ICU admission.

Keywords: chest radiography, coronavirus, COVID-19, RALE score

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Oluwaponmile David Alao

Abstract:

Due to an increase in the death rate as a result of heart attack. There is need to develop a system that can be useful in the diagnosis of the disease at the medical centre. This system will help in preventing misdiagnosis that may occur from the medical practitioner or the physicians. In this research work, heart disease dataset obtained from UCI repository has been used to develop an intelligent prediction diagnosis system. The system is modeled on a feedforwad neural network and trained with back propagation neural network. A recognition rate of 86% is obtained from the testing of the network.

Keywords: heart disease, artificial neural network, diagnosis, prediction system

Procedia PDF Downloads 421

Authors: JingWei Yu, Hong Yang Yu

Abstract:

At present, the increasingly serious air pollution in various cities of China has made people pay more attention to the air quality index(hereinafter referred to as AQI) of their living areas. To face this situation, it is of great significance to predict air pollution in heavily polluted areas. In this paper, based on the time series model of LSTM, a spatiotemporal prediction model of PM2.5 concentration in Mianyang, Sichuan Province, is established. The model fully considers the temporal variability and spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5 concentration. The spatial correlation of air quality at different locations is based on the Air quality status of other nearby monitoring stations, including AQI and meteorological data to predict the air quality of a monitoring station. The experimental results show that the method has good prediction accuracy that the fitting degree with the actual measured data reaches more than 0.7, which can be applied to the modeling and prediction of the spatial and temporal distribution of regional PM2.5 concentration.

Keywords: LSTM, PM2.5, neural networks, spatio-temporal prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Carlos Theran, Yohn Parra Bautista, Victor Adankai, Richard Alo, Jimwi Liu, Clement G. Yedjou

Abstract:

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder primarily characterized by deteriorating cognitive functions. AD has gained relevant attention in the last decade. An estimated 24 million people worldwide suffered from this disease by 2011. In 2016 an estimated 40 million were diagnosed with AD, and for 2050 is expected to reach 131 million people affected by AD. Therefore, detecting and confirming AD at its different stages is a priority for medical practices to provide adequate and accurate treatments. Recently, Machine Learning (ML) models have been used to study AD's stages handling missing values in multiclass, focusing on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI), Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI), and normal cognitive (CN). But, to our best knowledge, robust performance information of these models and the missing data analysis has not been presented in the literature. In this paper, we propose studying the performance of five different machine learning models for AD's stages multiclass prediction in terms of accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Also, the analysis of three imputation methods to handle the missing value problem is presented. A framework that integrates ML model for AD's stages multiclass prediction is proposed, performing an average accuracy of 84%.

Keywords: alzheimer's disease, missing value, machine learning, performance evaluation

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Sadaf Sahar, Usman Qamar, Sadaf Ayaz

Abstract:

In the software development lifecycle, the quality prediction techniques hold a prime importance in order to minimize future design errors and expensive maintenance. There are many techniques proposed by various researchers, but with the increasing complexity of the software lifecycle model, it is crucial to develop a flexible system which can cater for the factors which in result have an impact on the quality of the end product. These factors include properties of the software development process and the product along with its operation conditions. In this paper, a neural network (perceptron) based software quality prediction technique is proposed. Using this technique, the stakeholders can predict the quality of the resulting software during the early phases of the lifecycle saving time and resources on future elimination of design errors and costly maintenance. This technique can be brought into practical use using successful training.

Keywords: software quality, fuzzy logic, perception, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Gonzalez Carlos, Martinez Fransisco

Abstract:

There are various types of analysis that allow us to involve seismic phenomena that cause strong requirements for structures that are designed by society; one of them is a probabilistic analysis which works from prediction equations that have been created based on metadata seismic compiled in different regions. These equations form models that are used to describe the 5% damped pseudo spectra response for the various zones considering some easily known input parameters. The biggest problem for the creation of these models requires data with great robust statistics that support the results, and there are several places where this type of information is not available, for which the use of alternative methodologies helps to achieve adjustments to different models of seismic prediction.

Keywords: GMPM, 5% damped pseudo-response spectra, models of seismic prediction, PSHA

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

Abstract:

Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Shiva Kumar, G. S. Vijay, Srinivas Pai P., Shrinivasa Rao B. R.

Abstract:

In the present study RBF neural networks were used for predicting the performance and emission parameters of a biodiesel engine. Engine experiments were carried out in a 4 stroke diesel engine using blends of diesel and Honge methyl ester as the fuel. Performance parameters like BTE, BSEC, Tech and emissions from the engine were measured. These experimental results were used for ANN modeling. RBF center initialization was done by random selection and by using Clustered techniques. Network was trained by using fixed and varying widths for the RBF units. It was observed that RBF results were having a good agreement with the experimental results. Networks trained by using clustering technique gave better results than using random selection of centers in terms of reduced MRE and increased prediction accuracy. The average MRE for the performance parameters was 3.25% with the prediction accuracy of 98% and for emissions it was 10.4% with a prediction accuracy of 80%.

Keywords: radial basis function networks, emissions, performance parameters, fuzzy c means

Procedia PDF Downloads 531

Authors: Hiroaki Hirose, Hiroshi Ikeda, Isao Takeda

Abstract:

The Japanese version of the SF-36 has been employed to assess individuals’ health-related QOL (HRQOL). This study aimed to clarify the HRQOL of motorists with a spinal cord injury, in order to compare these individuals' SF-36 scores and national standard values. A total of 100 motorists with a spinal cord injury participated in this study. Participants’ HRQOL was evaluated using the Japanese version of the SF-36 (second edition). The score for each subscale was standardized based on data on the Japanese population. The average scores for NPF, NRP, NBP, NGH, NVT, NSF, NRE, and NMH were 10.9, 41.8, 45.9, 47.1, 46.1, 46.7, 46.0, and 47.4 points, respectively. Subjects showed significantly lower scores for NPF and NRP compared with national standard values, which were both ≤ 45.0 points, but relatively normal scores for the other items: NBP, NGH, NVT, NSF, NRE and NMH (> 45.0 points). The average scores for PCS, MCS and RCS were 21.9, 56.0, and 50.0 points, respectively. Subjects showed a significantly lower PCS score (≤ 20.0 points); however, the MCS score was higher (> 55.0 points) along with a relatively normal RCS score in these individuals (= 50.0 points).

Keywords: health-related QOL, HRQOL, SF-36, motorist, spinal cord injury, Japan

Procedia PDF Downloads 313

Authors: Pongsakorn Komutpol, Pravej Serichetaphongse, Soontra Panmekiate, Atiphan Pimkhaokham

Abstract:

Statement of Problem: The important parameter of esthetic assessment in anterior maxillary implant include pink esthetic of gingiva and white esthetic of restoration. While the 3 dimensional (3D) implant position are recently concerned as a key for succeeding in implant treatment. However, to our knowledge, the authors did not come across any publication that demonstrated the relations of esthetic outcome and 3D implant position. Objectives: To investigate the correlation between positional accuracy of single-tooth implant restoration (STIR) in all 3 dimensions and their esthetic outcomes. Materials and Methods: 17 patients’ data who had a STIR at central incisor with pristine contralateral tooth were included in this study. Intraoral photographs, dental models, and cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) images were retrieved. The esthetic outcome was assessed in accordance with pink esthetic score and white esthetic score (PES/WES). While the number of correct position in each dimension (mesiodistal, labiolingual, apicocoronal) of the implant were evaluated and defined as 'right' or 'wrong' according to ITI consensus conference by one investigator using CBCT data. The different mean score between right and wrong position in all dimensions was analyzed by Mann-Whitney U test with 0.05 was the significant level of the study. Results: The average score of PES/WES was 15.88 ± 1.65 which was considered as clinically acceptable. The average PES/WES score in 1, 2 and 3 right dimension of the implant position were 16.71, 15.75 and 15.17 respectively. None of the implants placed wrongly in all three dimensions. Statistically significant difference of the PES/WES score was found between the implants that placed right in 3 dimensions and 1 dimension (p = 0.041). Conclusion: This study supported the principle of 3D position of implant. The more properly implant was placed, the higher esthetic outcome was found.

Keywords: accuracy, dental implant, esthetic, 3D implant position

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

Abstract:

The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 270