Search results for: reservoir risk profile

Authors: Chico Horacio Jose Sambo

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Recently neural network has gained popularity when come to solve complex nonlinear problems. Permeability is one of fundamental reservoir characteristics system that are anisotropic distributed and non-linear manner. For this reason, permeability prediction from well log data is well suited by using neural networks and other computer-based techniques. The main goal of this paper is to predict reservoir permeability from well logs data by using neural network approach. A multi-layered perceptron trained by back propagation algorithm was used to build the predictive model. The performance of the model on net results was measured by correlation coefficient. The correlation coefficient from testing, training, validation and all data sets was evaluated. The results show that neural network was capable of reproducing permeability with accuracy in all cases, so that the calculated correlation coefficients for training, testing and validation permeability were 0.96273, 0.89991 and 0.87858, respectively. The generalization of the results to other field can be made after examining new data, and a regional study might be possible to study reservoir properties with cheap and very fast constructed models.

Keywords: neural network, permeability, multilayer perceptron, well log

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Authors: N. Alias, W. Z. W. Muhammad, M. N. M. Ibrahim, M. Mohamed, H. F. S. Saipol, U. N. Z. Ariffin, N. A. Zakaria, M. S. Z. Suardi

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This paper presents the performance comparison of some computation software for solving the boundary element method (BEM). BEM formulation is the numerical technique and high potential for solving the advance mathematical modeling to predict the production of oil well in arbitrarily shaped based on multiple leases reservoir. The limitation of data validation for ensuring that a program meets the accuracy of the mathematical modeling is considered as the research motivation of this paper. Thus, based on this limitation, there are three steps involved to validate the accuracy of the oil production simulation process. In the first step, identify the mathematical modeling based on partial differential equation (PDE) with Poisson-elliptic type to perform the BEM discretization. In the second step, implement the simulation of the 2D BEM discretization using COMSOL Multiphysic and MATLAB programming languages. In the last step, analyze the numerical performance indicators for both programming languages by using the validation of Fortran programming. The performance comparisons of numerical analysis are investigated in terms of percentage error, comparison graph and 2D visualization of pressure on oil production of multiple leases reservoir. According to the performance comparison, the structured programming in Fortran programming is the alternative software for implementing the accurate numerical simulation of BEM. As a conclusion, high-level language for numerical computation and numerical performance evaluation are satisfied to prove that Fortran is well suited for capturing the visualization of the production of oil well in arbitrarily shaped.

Keywords: performance comparison, 2D visualization, COMSOL multiphysic, MATLAB, Fortran, modelling and simulation, boundary element method, reservoir pressure

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Authors: V. Sobotková, B. Šarapatka, M. Dumbrovský, J. Uhrová, M. Bednář

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The paper deals with the influence of implemented conservation measures on the quality of surface water resources. Recently, a new process of complex land consolidation in the Czech Republic has provided a unique opportunity to improve the quality of the environment and sustainability of crop production by means of better soil and water conservation. The most important degradation factor in our study area in the Hubenov drinking water reservoir catchment basin was water erosion together with loss of organic matter. Hubenov Reservoir water resources were monitored for twenty years (1990–2010) to collect water quality data for nitrate nitrogen (N-NO3-), total P, and undissolved substances. Results obtained from measurements taken before and after land consolidation indicated a decrease in the linear trend of N-NO3- and total P concentrations, this was achieved through implementation of conservation measures limiting soil degradation in the Hubenov reservoir catchment area.

Keywords: complex land consolidation, degradation, land use, soil and water conservation, surface water resources

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Authors: Saadia Drissi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer

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Authors: Francis Edum-Fotwe, Tony Thorpe, Charles Afetornu

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Risk perception informs the outcome of how issues are responded to in either solving or overcoming a problem or improving a situation. Risk perception is established to be affected by some key factors reflecting in the varying ways in which work is done as well as the level of efficiency achieved. These factors potentially would influence risk perception to different extents. Such that if these factors are said to determine risk perception, how does a change in any affect risk perception. Since the ability to address risk is influenced by risk perception, establishing and developing awareness of that perception should enable construction professionals to make viable decisions. Any act to improve the construction industry cannot be overemphasised, considering its contribution to national development. A survey questionnaire was conducted in Ghana to elicit data that measures the risk perception and the essential factors as well as the necessary demographics of the respondents, who are construction professionals. This study finds out the sensitivity of the critical factors of risk perception. It uses the Relative Importance Index analysis tool to investigate the differential effect of these essential factors on risk perception, such that a slight change in a factor makes a significant change in risk perception, having established that it is influenced by essential factors. The findings can lead to policy formation for employers on the prioritisation factors to undertake to improve the risk perception of employees. Other areas in which this study can be useful in team formation for sensitive and complex projects where efficient risk management is critical.

Keywords: construction industry, risk, risk management, risk perception

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Authors: Saeed Ur Rehman Chaudhry

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The objectives of the study are to reconstruct sequence stratigraphic framework and petrophysical analysis of the reservoir marked by using sequence stratigraphy of Sawan Gas Field. The study area lies in Central Indus Basin, District Khairpur, Sindh province, Pakistan. The study area lies tectonically in an extensional regime. Lower Goru Formation and Sembar Formation act as a reservoir and source respectively. To achieve objectives, data set of seismic lines, consisting of seismic lines PSM96-114, PSM96-115, PSM96-133, PSM98-201, PSM98-202 and well logs of Sawan-01, Sawan-02 and Gajwaro-01 has been used. First of all interpretation of seismic lines has been carried out. Interpretation of seismic lines shows extensional regime in the area and cut entire Cretaceous section. Total of seven reflectors has been marked on each seismic line. Lower Goru Formation is thinning towards west. Seismic lines also show eastward tilt of stratigraphy due to uplift at the western side. Sequence stratigraphic reconstruction has been done by integrating seismic and wireline log data. Total of seven sequence boundaries has been interpreted between the top of Chiltan Limestone to Top of Lower Goru Formation. It has been observed on seismic lines that Sembar Formation initially generated shelf margin profile and then ramp margin on which Lower Goru deposition took place. Shelf edge deltas and slope fans have been observed on seismic lines, and signatures of slope fans are also observed on wireline logs as well. Total of six sequences has been interpreted. Stratigraphic and sequence stratigraphic correlation has been carried out by using Sawan 01, Sawan 02 and Gajwaro 01 and a Low Stand Systems tract (LST) within Lower Goru C sands has been marked as a zone of interest. The petrophysical interpretation includes shale volume, effective porosity, permeability, saturation of water and hydrocarbon. On the basis of good effective porosity and hydrocarbon saturation petrophysical analysis confirms that the LST in Sawan-01 and Sawan-02 has good hydrocarbon potential.

Keywords: petrophysical analysis, reservoir potential, Sawan Gas Field, sequence stratigraphy

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Authors: O. E. Obayemi, M. A. Ayoade, O. O. Komolafe

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Fish survey was carried out for an annual cycle covering both rainy and dry seasons using cast nets, gill nets and traps at two different reservoirs. The objective was to examined the fish assemblages of the reservoirs and provide more additional information on the reservoir. The fish species in the reservoirs comprised of twelve species of six families. The results of the study also showed that five species of fish were caught in reservoir five while ten fish species were captured in reservoir six. Species such as Malapterurus electricus, Ctenopoma kingsleyae, Mormyrus rume, Parachanna obscura, Sarotherodon galilaeus, Tilapia mariae, C. guntheri, Clarias macromystax, Coptodon zilii and Clarias gariepinus were caught during the sampling period. There was a significant difference (p=0.014, t = 1.711) in the abundance of fish species in the two reservoirs. Seasonally, reservoirs five (p=0.221, t = 1.859) and six (p=0.453, t = 1.734) showed there was no significant difference in their fish populations. Also, despite being impacted with gold mining the diversity indices were high when compared to less disturbed waterbodies. The study concluded that the environments recorded low abundant fish species which suggests the influence of mining on the abundance and diversity of fish species.

Keywords: Igun, fish, Shannon-Wiener Index, Simpson index, Pielou index

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Authors: Mohamed Anouar Razgallah

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This paper examines in the context of a one-period model the impact of background risk on the optimal secondary prevention. We conduct our study based on various configurations of the background risk. We intend to show that in most cases the level of secondary prevention effort varied after the introduction of background risk, however, in very few cases this level remains constant.

Keywords: secondary prevention, primary prevention, background risk, ecomomics

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Authors: M. Miljkovic, A. Urakpo, M. Simic-Koumoutsaris

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Benefit-risk assessment (BRA) is a valuable tool that takes place in multiple stages during a medicine's lifecycle, and this assessment can be conducted in a variety of ways. The aim was to summarize current BRA methods used during approval decisions and in post-approval settings and to see possible future directions. Relevant reviews, recommendations, and guidelines published in medical literature and through regulatory agencies over the past five years have been examined. BRA implies the review of two dimensions: the dimension of benefits (determined mainly by the therapeutic efficacy) and the dimension of risks (comprises the safety profile of a drug). Regulators, industry, and academia have developed various approaches, ranging from descriptive textual (qualitative) to decision-analytic (quantitative) models, to facilitate the BRA of medicines during the product lifecycle (from Phase I trials, to authorization procedure, post-marketing surveillance and health technology assessment for inclusion in public formularies). These approaches can be classified into the following categories: stepwise structured approaches (frameworks); measures for benefits and risks that are usually endpoint specific (metrics), simulation techniques and meta-analysis (estimation techniques), and utility survey techniques to elicit stakeholders’ preferences (utilities). All these approaches share the following two common goals: to assist this analysis and to improve the communication of decisions, but each is subject to its own specific strengths and limitations. Before using any method, its utility, complexity, the extent to which it is established, and the ease of results interpretation should be considered. Despite widespread and long-time use, BRA is subject to debate, suffers from a number of limitations, and currently is still under development. The use of formal, systematic structured approaches to BRA for regulatory decision-making and quantitative methods to support BRA during the product lifecycle is a standard practice in medicine that is subject to continuous improvement and modernization, not only in methodology but also in cooperation between organizations.

Keywords: benefit-risk assessment, benefit-risk profile, product lifecycle, quantitative methods, structured approaches

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Authors: Charles Amoatey

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The issue of risk in the mining industry is a global phenomenon and the Ghanaian mining industry is not exempted. The main purpose of this study is to identify the critical risk factors affecting the mining industry. The study takes an integrated view of the mining industry by examining the contribution of various risk factors to mining project failure in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted to solicit the critical risk factors from key mining practitioners. About 80 respondents from 11 mining firms participated in the survey. The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were: (1) unstable commodity prices, (2) inflation/exchange rate, (3) land degradation, (4) high cost of living and (5) government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Furthermore, the study found that risk assessment in the mining sector has a direct link with mining project sustainability. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were discussed. The key findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the entire mining industry.

Keywords: risk, assessment, mining, Ghana

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Authors: G. M. Hamada, A. A. Al-Gathe, A. M. Al-Khudafi

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Determination of water saturation in sandstone is a vital question to determine the initial oil or gas in place in reservoir rocks. Water saturation determination using electrical measurements is mainly on Archie’s formula. Consequently accuracy of Archie’s formula parameters affects water saturation values rigorously. Determination of Archie’s parameters a, m, and n is proceeded by three conventional techniques, Core Archie-Parameter Estimation (CAPE) and 3-D. This work introduces the hybrid system of parallel self-organizing neural network (PSONN) targeting accepted values of Archie’s parameters and, consequently, reliable water saturation values. This work focuses on Archie’s parameters determination techniques; conventional technique, CAPE technique, and 3-D technique, and then the calculation of water saturation using current. Using the same data, a hybrid parallel self-organizing neural network (PSONN) algorithm is used to estimate Archie’s parameters and predict water saturation. Results have shown that estimated Arche’s parameters m, a, and n are highly accepted with statistical analysis, indicating that the PSONN model has a lower statistical error and higher correlation coefficient. This study was conducted using a high number of measurement points for 144 core plugs from a sandstone reservoir. PSONN algorithm can provide reliable water saturation values, and it can supplement or even replace the conventional techniques to determine Archie’s parameters and thereby calculate water saturation profiles.

Keywords: water saturation, Archie’s parameters, artificial intelligence, PSONN, sandstone reservoir

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Authors: Irene H. Maralit

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Warning labels have been found to inform smokers about the health hazards of smoking, encourage smokers to quit, and prevent nonsmokers from starting to smoke. Warning labels on tobacco products are an ideal way of communicating with smokers. Since the intervention is delivered at the time of smoking, nearly all smokers are exposed to warning labels and pack-a-day smokers could be exposed to the warnings more than 7,000 times per year. Given the reach and frequency of exposure, the proponents want to know the effect of warning labels on smoking behavior. Its aims to identify the profile of the smokers associated with its behavioral variables that best describe the users’ perception. The behavioral variables are AVOID, THINK RISK and FORGO. This research study aims to determine if there is significant relationship between the effect of warning labels on cigarette package on Consumer behavior when grouped according to profile variable. The researcher used quota sampling to gather representative data through purposive means to determine the accurate representation of data needed in the study. Furthermore, the data was gathered through the use of a self-constructed questionnaire. The statistical method used were Frequency count, Chi square, multi regression, weighted mean and ANOVA to determine the scale and percentage of the three variables. After the analysis of data, results shows that most of the respondents belongs to age range 22–28 years old with percentage of 25.3%, majority are male with a total number of 134 with percentage of 89.3% and single with total number of 79 and percentage of 52.7%, mostly are high school graduates with total number of 59 and percentage of 39.3, with regards to occupation, skilled workers have the highest frequency of 37 with 24.7%, Majority of the income of the respondents falls under the range of Php 5,001-Php10,000 with 50.7%. And also with regards to the number of sticks consumed per day falls under 6–10 got the highest frequency with 33.3%. The respondents THINK RISK factor got the highest composite mean which is 2.79 with verbal interpretation of agree. It is followed by FORGO with 2.78 composite mean and a verbal interpretation of agree and AVOID variable with composite mean of 2.77 with agree as its verbal interpretation. In terms of significant relationship on the effects of cigarette label to consumer behavior when grouped according to profile variable, sex and occupation found to be significant.

Keywords: consumer behavior, smokers, warning labels, think risk avoid forgo

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Authors: Rudi Ryacudu, Edi Artono, Gema Wahyudi Purnama

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Oil and gas consumption in Indonesia is currently on the rise due to its nation economic improvement. Unfortunately, Indonesia’s domestic oil production cannot meet it’s own consumption and Indonesia has lost its status as Oil and Gas exporter. Even worse, our conventional oil and gas reserve is declining. Unwilling to give up, the government of Indonesia has taken measures to invite investors to invest in domestic oil and gas exploration to find new potential reserve and ultimately increase production. Yet, it has not bear any fruit. Indonesia has taken steps now to explore new unconventional oil and gas play including Shale Gas, Shale Oil and Tight Sands to increase domestic production. These new plays require definite parameters to differentiate each concept. The purpose of this paper is to provide ways in defining unconventional hydrocarbon reservoir parameters in Shale Gas, Shale Oil and Tight Sands. The parameters would serve as an initial baseline for users to perform analysis of unconventional hydrocarbon plays. Some of the on going concerns or question to be answered in regards to unconventional hydrocarbon plays includes: 1. The TOC number, 2. Has it been well “cooked” and become a hydrocarbon, 3. What are the permeability and the porosity values, 4. Does it need a stimulation, 5. Does it has pores, and 6. Does it have sufficient thickness. In contrast with the common oil and gas conventional play, Shale Play assumes that hydrocarbon is retained and trapped in area with very low permeability. In most places in Indonesia, hydrocarbon migrates from source rock to reservoir. From this case, we could derive a theory that Kitchen and Source Rock are located right below the reservoir. It is the starting point for user or engineer to construct basin definition in relation with the tectonic play and depositional environment. Shale Play concept requires definition of characteristic, description and reservoir identification to discover reservoir that is technically and economically possible to develop. These are the steps users and engineers has to do to perform Shale Play: a. Calculate TOC and perform mineralogy analysis using water saturation and porosity value. b. Reconstruct basin that accumulate hydrocarbon c. Brittlenes Index calculated form petrophysical and distributed based on seismic multi attributes d. Integrated natural fracture analysis e. Best location to place a well.

Keywords: unconventional hydrocarbon, shale gas, shale oil tight sand reservoir parameters, shale play

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Authors: M. Boudjerda, B. Touaibia, M. K. Mihoubi

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In Algeria agricultural irrigation is the primary water consuming sector followed by the domestic and industrial sectors. Economic development in the last decade has weighed heavily on water resources which are relatively limited and gradually decreasing to the detriment of agriculture. The research presented in this paper focuses on the optimization of irrigation water demand. Dynamic Programming-Neural Network (DPNN) method is applied to investigate reservoir optimization. The optimal operation rule is formulated to minimize the gap between water release and water irrigation demand. As a case study, Foum El-Gherza dam’s reservoir system in south of Algeria has been selected to examine our proposed optimization model. The application of DPNN method allowed increasing the satisfaction rate (SR) from 12.32% to 55%. In addition, the operation rule generated showed more reliable and resilience operation for the examined case study.

Keywords: water management, agricultural demand, dam and reservoir operation, Foum el-Gherza dam, dynamic programming, artificial neural network

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Authors: Banaeifar Abdolali, Rahmanimoghadam Neda, Sohyli Shahram

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Obesity is an increase in body fat , in addition it has been introduced as a risk factor for the progress of lipid disorders, hypertension, cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes (1,2). In recent years, Adipose tissue is now recognized as an endocrine organ that secretes many cytokines such as: interleukin 6, leptin, and visfatin (3). Visfatin is an adipocytokine that release from adiposities. It is unidentified whether training also influences concentrations of visfatin. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of 12 weeks of aerobic training on visfatin levels and lipid profile in obese women. Method: Thirty two obese women (age = 37.8 ± 13.2 years, body mass index = of 39.4 ± 6.4 kg/m2 .) volunteered to participate in a 12-wk exercise program. They were randomly assigned to either a training (n = 16) or control (n = 14) group. The training group exercised for 70 minutes per session, 3 days per week during the 12 week training program. The control group was asked to maintain their normal daily activities. Samples were obtained before and at the end of training program. We use t.paire and independent,test for data analyzes. Results: Exercise training resulted in a decrease in body weight (p < 0.05), percent body fat (% fat) and BMI (p < 0.05), fasting glucose level and visfatin concentration decreased but wasn’t significant (p > 0.05). Also the levels of triglyceride, total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol did not change significantly. Conclution: In conclusion, three month aerobic training program used in this study was very effective for producing significant benefits to body composition and HDL.c but didn’t significant chenging visfatin levels and lipid profile in these obese women.

Keywords: aerobic training, visfatin, lipid profile, women

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Authors: Jihene Bettaieb, Ghassen kharroubi, Rym mallekh, Ines Cherif, Taoufik Atawa, Kaouther Harrabech

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Brucellosis is a major worldwide zoonosis. It is a reportable condition in Tunisia where the disease remains endemic, especially in rural areas. The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological, clinical, and bacteriological profile of human brucellosis cases notified in the district of Tunis. It was a retrospective descriptive study of cases reported in the district of Tunis through the national surveillance system between the 1st January and 31th December 2017. During the study period, 133 brucellosis confirmed cases were notified. The mean age was 37.5 ± 18.0 years, and 54.9% of cases were males. More than four-fifths (82.7%) of cases were reported in spring and summer with a peak in the month of May (36 cases). Fever and sweats were the most common symptoms; they occurred in 95% and 72% of cases, respectively. Osteoarticular complications occurred in 10 cases, meningitis in one case and endocarditis in one other case. Wright agglutination test and Rose Bengale test were positive in 100% and 91% of cases, respectively. While blood culture was positive in 9 cases and PCR in 2 cases. Brucella melitensis was the only identified specie (9 cases). Almost all cases (99.2%) reported the habit of consuming raw dairy products. Only 5 cases had a suspect contact with animals; among them, 3 persons were livestock breeders. The transmission was essentially due to raw dairy product consumption. It is important to enhance preventive measures to control animal Brucellosis and to educate the population regarding the risk factors of the disease.

Keywords: brucellosis, risk factors, surveillance system, Tunisia

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Authors: Ragi Poyyara, Vijaya Patnana, Mohammed Alam

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When acid is pumped into damaged reservoirs for damage removal/stimulation, distorted inflow of acid into the formation occurs caused by acid preferentially traveling into highly permeable regions over low permeable regions, or (in general) into the path of least resistance. This can lead to poor zonal coverage and hence warrants diversion to carry out an effective placement of acid. Diversion is desirably a reversible technique of temporarily reducing the permeability of high perm zones, thereby forcing the acid into lower perm zones. The uniqueness of each reservoir can pose several challenges to engineers attempting to devise optimum and effective diversion strategies. Diversion techniques include mechanical placement and/or chemical diversion of treatment fluids, further sub-classified into ball sealers, bridge plugs, packers, particulate diverters, viscous gels, crosslinked gels, relative permeability modifiers (RPMs), foams, and/or the use of placement techniques, such as coiled tubing (CT) and the maximum pressure difference and injection rate (MAPDIR) methodology. It is not always realized that the effectiveness of diverters greatly depends on reservoir properties, such as formation type, temperature, reservoir permeability, heterogeneity, and physical well characteristics (e.g., completion type, well deviation, length of treatment interval, multiple intervals, etc.). This paper reviews the mechanisms by which each variety of diverter functions and discusses the effect of various reservoir properties on the efficiency of diversion techniques. Guidelines are recommended to help enhance productivity from zones of interest by choosing the best methods of diversion while pumping an optimized amount of treatment fluid. The success of an overall acid treatment often depends on the effectiveness of the diverting agents.

Keywords: diversion, reservoir, zonal coverage, carbonate, sandstone

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Authors: Riky Tri Hartagung, Mohammad Syamsu Rosid

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The lithology prediction process, as well as the fluid content is the most important part in the reservoir characterization. One of the methods used in this process is the simultaneous seismic inversion method. In the Posseidon field, Browse Basin, Australia, the parameters generated through simultaneous seismic inversion are not able to characterize the reservoir accurately because of the overlapping impedance values between hydrocarbon sand, water sand, and shale, which causes a high level of ambiguity in the interpretation. The Poisson Impedance inversion provides a solution to this problem by rotating the impedance a few degrees, which is obtained through the coefficient c. Coefficient c is obtained through the Target Correlation Coefficient Analysis (TCCA) by finding the optimum correlation coefficient between Poisson Impedance and the target log, namely gamma ray, effective porosity, and resistivity. Correlation of each of these target logs will produce Lithology Impedance (LI) which is sensitive to lithology sand, Porosity Impedance (ϕI) which is sensitive to porous sand, and Fluid Impedance (FI) which is sensitive to fluid content. The results show that PI gives better results in separating hydrocarbon saturated reservoir zones. Based on the results of the LI-GR crossplot, the ϕI-effective porosity crossplot, and the FI-Sw crossplot with optimum correlations of 0.74, 0.91, and 0.82 respectively, it shows that the lithology of hidrocarbon-saturated porous sand is at the value of LI ≤ 2800 (m/s)(g *cc), ϕI ≤ 5500 (m/s)(g*cc), and FI ≤ 4000 (m/s)(g*cc). The presence of low values of LI, ϕI, and FI correlates accurately with the presence of hydrocarbons in the well. Each value of c is then applied to the seismic data. The results show that the PI inversion gives a good distribution of Hydrocarbon-saturated porous sand lithology. The distribution of hydrocarbon saturated porous sand on the seismic inversion section is seen in the northeast – southwest direction, which is estimated as the direction of gas distribution.

Keywords: reservoir characterization, poisson impedance, browse basin, poseidon field

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Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė

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The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.

Keywords: assessment, environment, agile, model, risk

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Authors: Armin Shirbazo, Mohammad Vahab, Hamed Lamei Ramandi, Jalal Fahimpour

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One of the most effective ways for increasing production in wells that are faced with problems such as pressure depletion and low rate is hydraulic fracturing. Hydraulic fracturing is creating a high permeable path through the reservoir and simulated area around the wellbore. This is very important for low permeability reservoirs, which their production is uneconomical. In this study, the influence of the fracturing pattern in multi-stage fractured horizontal wells is analyzed for a tight, heavy oil reservoir to explore the impact of fracturing patterns on improving oil recovery. The horizontal well has five transverse fractures with the same fracture length, width, height, and conductivity properties. The fracture patterns are divided into four distinct shapes: uniform shape, diamond shape, U shape, and W shape. The results show that different fracturing patterns produce various cumulative production after ten years, and the best pattern can be selected based on the most cumulative production. The result also illustrates that optimum design in fracturing can boost the production up to 3% through the permeability distribution around the wellbore and reservoir.

Keywords: multi-stage fracturing, horizontal well, fracture patterns, fracture length, number of stages

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Authors: Natsuda Rattamanee

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Like other countries, Thailand continually experiences strong protests against dam and reservoir proposals, especially large-scale projects. The protestors are constantly worried about the potential significant adverse impacts of the projects on the environment and society. Although project proponents are required by laws to assess the environmental and social impacts of the dam proposals by making environmental impact assessment (EIA) reports and finding mitigation measures before implementing the plans, the outcomes of the assessments often do not lessen the affected people and public’s concerns about the potential negative effects of the projects. One of the main reasons is that Thailand does not have a proper and efficient law to regulate project proponents when determining the scope of environmental impact assessments. Scoping is the crucial second stage of the preparation of an EIA report. The appropriate scope of assessments will allow EIA studies to focus only on the significant effects of the proposed project on particular resources, areas, and communities. It will offer crucial and sufficient information to the decision-makers and the public. The decision to implement the dam and reservoir projects considered based on the assessments with a proper scoping will eventually be more widely accepted by the public and reduce community opposition. The research work seeks to identify flaws in the current requirements of scoping steps under Thai laws and regulations and proposes recommendations to improve the legal scheme. The paper explores the well-established United States laws and relevant rules regulating how lead agencies determine the scope of their environmental impact assessments and some guidelines concerning scoping published by dominant institutions. Policymakers and legislature will find the results of studies helpful in improving the scoping-step requirements of EIA for dam and reservoir projects and reducing the level of anti-dam protests in Thailand.

Keywords: dam and reservoir, EIA, environmental impact assessment, law, scoping, Thailand

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Authors: Meysam Lak, Mohammad Fatehi Marji, Alireza Yarahamdi Bafghi, Abolfazl Abdollahipour

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A wellbore is a hole that is drilled to aid in the exploration and recovery of natural resources including oil and gas. Occasionally, in order to increase productivity index and porosity of the wellbore and reservoir, the well stimulation methods have been used. Hydraulic fracturing is one of these methods. Moreover, several explosions at the end of the well can stimulate the reservoir and create fractures around it. In this study, crack initiation in rock around the wellbore has been numerically modeled due to explosion. One, two, three, and four pairs of explosion have been set at the end of the wellbore on its wall. After each stage of the explosion, results have been presented and discussed. Results show that this method can initiate and probably propagate several fractures around the wellbore.

Keywords: crack initiation, explosion, finite difference modelling, well productivity

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Authors: Oussama Derdous, Lakhdar Djemili, Hamza Bouchahed

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The consequences of a dam breach can be devastating; both in terms of lives lost and damaged infrastructure and property. Hydraulic modeling provides a clear picture of the possible consequences of partial or complete failure of a dam, which is the key to carry out emergency planning and conduct reliable risk assessments. In this paper, the MIKE11 model developed by the Danish Hydrologic Institute (DHI) was used to simulate the flood wave propagation associated with a potential failure analysis failure of Zardezas dam located in the city of Skikda in the North East of Algeria. MIKE11 results including inundation maps and the representative channel/valley cross-sections depicting flow depth and maximal flow velocities showed that Zardezas reservoir presents a significant risk to downstream areas in the event of a dam failure. These results can be used as the basis of the development of an Emergency Action Plan (EAP).The main objective of this plan is to predict the appropriate steps to avoid or at least decrease the consequences of unexpected failure of Zardezas dam.

Keywords: MIKE11, dam break, inundation maps, emergency action plan

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Authors: David Lall, Vikram Vishal, P. G. Ranjith

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Numerical modeling of gas production from hydrate-bearing reservoirs requires the solution of various thermal, hydrological, chemical, and mechanical phenomena in a coupled manner. Among the various reservoir properties that influence gas production estimates, the distribution of permeability across the domain is one of the most crucial parameters since it determines both heat transfer and mass transfer. The aspect of permeability in hydrate-bearing reservoirs is particularly complex compared to conventional reservoirs since it depends on the saturation of gas hydrates and hence, is dynamic during production. The dependence of permeability on hydrate saturation is mathematically represented using permeability-reduction models, which are specific to the expected morphology of hydrate accumulations (such as grain-coating or pore-filling hydrates). In this study, we demonstrate the impact of various permeability-reduction models, and consequently, different morphologies of hydrate deposits on the estimates of gas production using depressurization at the reservoir scale. We observe significant differences in produced water volumes and cumulative mass of produced gas between the models, thereby highlighting the uncertainty in production behavior arising from the ambiguity in the prevalent gas hydrate morphology.

Keywords: gas hydrate morphology, multi-scale modeling, THMC, fluid flow in porous media

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Authors: Khulud M. Rahuma, Ibrahim B. Younis

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Assessment of petrophysical parameters are very essential for reservoir engineer. Three techniques can be used to predict reservoir properties: well logging, well testing, and core analysis. Cementation factor and saturation exponent are very required for calculation, and their values role a great effect on water saturation estimation. In this study a sensitive analysis was performed to investigate the influence of cementation factor and saturation exponent variation applying logs, and core analysis. Measurements of water saturation resulted in a maximum difference around fifteen percent.

Keywords: porosity, cementation factor, saturation exponent, formation factor, water saturation

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Authors: Sepideh Beiramipour, Hadi Haghjouei, Kourosh Qaderi, Majid Rahimpour, Mohammad M. Ahmadi, Sameh A. Kantoush

Abstract:

Reservoir sedimentation is one of the main challenges by which the reservoir behind the dam is filled with sediments transferred through the river flow. Pressure flushing method is an effective way to drain the deposited sediments of the reservoirs through the bottom outlet. So far, several structural methods have been proposed to increase the efficiency of pressure flushing. The aim of this study is to increase the performance of Dendritic Bottomless Extended (DBE) structure on the efficiency of pressurized sediment flushing using submerged vanes. For this purpose, the physical model of the dam reservoir with dimensions of 7.5 m in length, 3.5 m in width, and 1.8 m in height in the hydraulic and water structures research laboratory of Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman was used. In order to investigate the influence of submerged vanes on the performance of DBE structure in pressure flushing, the best arrangement and geometric parameters of the vanes were selected and combined with the DBE structure. The results showed that the submerged vanes significantly increased the performance of the DBE structure so that the volume of the sediment flushing cone with the combination of two structures increased by 3.7 times compared to the DBE structure test.

Keywords: dendritic bottomless extended structure, flushing efficiency, sedimentation, sediment flushing

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Authors: Shumaila Zeb

Abstract:

The proposed study aims to investigate insolvency risk of commercial banks of Pakistan. Furthermore, it empirically estimates the effect of already implemented financial regulations on the insolvency risk of banks. To carry out the empirical analysis, a balanced bank-level panel data covering the period 2008-2016 is used. The Z-score is used for calculating the insolvency risk of each bank. The panel regression is used to investigate the relationship between financial regulations and insolvency risk of banks. The empirics reveal that the financial regulations enforced by State Bank of Pakistan have significant impacts on the insolvency risk of banks. The results further indicate that loan ratio and reserve ratio are positively and significantly related to the insolvency risk of banks.

Keywords: insolvency risk, Z-score, financial regulations, banks

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Authors: H. Jung, N. Kim, B. Kang, J. Choe

Abstract:

History matching is a crucial procedure for predicting reservoir performances and making future decisions. However, it is difficult due to uncertainties of initial reservoir models. Therefore, it is important to have reliable initial models for successful history matching of highly heterogeneous reservoirs such as channel reservoirs. In this paper, we proposed a novel scheme for regenerating geological models using support vector machine (SVM) and principal component analysis (PCA). First, we perform PCA for figuring out main geological characteristics of models. Through the procedure, permeability values of each model are transformed to new parameters by principal components, which have eigenvalues of large magnitude. Secondly, the parameters are projected into two-dimensional plane by multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) based on Euclidean distances. Finally, we train an SVM classifier using 20% models which show the most similar or dissimilar well oil production rates (WOPR) with the true values (10% for each). Then, the other 80% models are classified by trained SVM. We select models on side of low WOPR errors. One hundred channel reservoir models are initially generated by single normal equation simulation. By repeating the classification process, we can select models which have similar geological trend with the true reservoir model. The average field of the selected models is utilized as a probability map for regeneration. Newly generated models can preserve correct channel features and exclude wrong geological properties maintaining suitable uncertainty ranges. History matching with the initial models cannot provide trustworthy results. It fails to find out correct geological features of the true model. However, history matching with the regenerated ensemble offers reliable characterization results by figuring out proper channel trend. Furthermore, it gives dependable prediction of future performances with reduced uncertainties. We propose a novel classification scheme which integrates PCA, MDS, and SVM for regenerating reservoir models. The scheme can easily sort out reliable models which have similar channel trend with the reference in lowered dimension space.

Keywords: history matching, principal component analysis, reservoir modelling, support vector machine

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Authors: Sukruthai Sapniwat, Falan Srisuriyachai

Abstract:

Polymer Flooding is one of the most well-known methods in Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) technology which can be implemented after either primary or secondary recovery, resulting in favorable conditions for the displacement mechanism in order to lower the residual oil in the reservoir. Polymer substances can lower the mobility ratio of the whole process by increasing the viscosity of injected water. Therefore, polymer flooding can increase volumetric sweep efficiency, which leads to a better recovery factor. Moreover, polymer adsorption onto rock surface can help decrease reservoir permeability contrast with high heterogeneity. Due to the reduction of the absolute permeability, effective permeability to water, representing flow ability of the injected fluid, is also reduced. Once polymer is adsorbed onto rock surface, polymer molecule can be desorbed when different fluids are injected. This study is performed to evaluate the effects of the adsorption and desorption process of polymer solutions to yield benefits on the oil recovery mechanism. A reservoir model is constructed by reservoir simulation program called STAR® commercialized by the Computer Modeling Group (CMG). Various polymer concentrations, starting times of polymer flooding process and polymer injection rates were evaluated with selected values of polymer desorption degrees including 0, 25, 50, 75 and 100%. The higher the value, the more adsorbed polymer molecules to return back to flowing fluid. According to the results, polymer desorption lowers polymer consumption, especially at low concentrations. Furthermore, starting time of polymer flooding and injection rate affect the oil production. The results show that waterflooding followed by earlier polymer flooding can increase the oil recovery factor while the higher injection rate also enhances the recovery. Polymer concentration is related to polymer consumption due to the two main benefits of polymer flooding control described above. Therefore, polymer slug size should be optimized based on polymer concentration. Polymer desorption causes polymer re-employment that is previously adsorbed onto rock surface, resulting in an increase of sweep efficiency in the further period of polymer flooding process. Even though waterflooding supports polymer injectivity, water cut at the producer can prematurely terminate the oil production. The injection rate decreases polymer adsorption due to decreased retention time of polymer flooding process.

Keywords: enhanced oil recovery technology, polymer adsorption and desorption, polymer flooding, reservoir simulation

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Authors: Bartłomiej K. Sołtysik, Agnieszka Guligowska, Łukasz Kroc, Małgorzata Pigłowska, Elizavetta Fife, Tomasz Kostka

Abstract:

Introduction: Functional capacity is one of the basic determinants of health in older age. Functional capacity may be influenced by multiple disorders, including cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. Nevertheless, there is relatively little evidence regarding the association of functional status and cardiometabolic risk factors. Aim: The aim of this research is to check possible association between functional capacity and cardiovascular risk factor in a group of younger seniors. Materials and Methods: The study group consisted of 300 participants aged 60-65 years (50% were women). Total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), glucose, uric acid, body mass index (BMI), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and blood pressure were measured. Smoking status and physical activity level (by Seven Day Physical Activity Recall Questionnaire ) were analysed. Functional status was assessed with the Timed Up and Go (TUG) Test. The data were compared according to gender, and then separately for both sexes regarding prolonged TUG score (>7 s). The limit of significance was set at p≤0.05 for all analyses. Results: Women presented with higher serum lipids and longer TUG. Men had higher blood pressure, glucose, uric acid, the prevalence of hypertension and history of heart infarct. In women group, those with prolonged TUG displayed significantly higher obesity rate (BMI, WHTR), uric acid, hypertension and ischemic heart disease (IHD), but lower physical activity level, TC or LDL-C. Men with prolonged TUG were heavier smokers, had higher TG, lower HDL and presented with higher prevalence of diabetes and IHD. Discussion: This study shows association between functional status and risk profile of cardiometabolic disorders. In women, the relationship of lower functional status to cardiometabolic diseases may be mediated by overweight/obesity. In men, locomotor problems may be related to smoking. Higher education level may be considered as a protective factor regardless of gender.

Keywords: cardiovascular risk factors, functional capacity, TUG test, seniors

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