Search results for: offshore reliability

Authors: Je-Seok Shin, Wook-Won Kim, Jin-O Kim

Abstract:

The offshore wind farm needs to be designed carefully considering economics and reliability aspects. There are many decision-making problems for designing entire offshore wind farm, this paper focuses on an inner grid layout which means the connection between wind turbines as well as between wind turbines and an offshore substation. A methodology proposed in this paper determines the connections and the cable type for each connection section using K-clustering, minimum spanning tree and cable selection algorithms. And then, a cost evaluation is performed in terms of investment, power loss and reliability. Through the cost evaluation, an optimal layout of inner grid is determined so as to have the lowest total cost. In order to demonstrate the validity of the methodology, the case study is conducted on 240MW offshore wind farm, and the results show that it is helpful to design optimally offshore wind farm.

Keywords: offshore wind farm, optimal layout, k-clustering algorithm, minimum spanning algorithm, cable type selection, power loss cost, reliability cost

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Authors: Caglayan Hizal, Hasan Emre Demirci, Engin Aktas, Alper Sezer

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Offshore wind turbines consist of a long slender tower with a heavy fixed mass on the top of the tower (nacelle), together with a heavy rotating mass (blades and hub). They are always subjected to environmental loads including wind and wave loads in their service life. This study presents a three-stage methodology for reliability-based condition assessment of offshore wind-turbines against the seismic, wave and wind induced effects considering the soil-structure interaction. In this context, failure criterions are considered as serviceability limits of a monopile supporting an Offshore Wind Turbine: (a) allowable horizontal displacement at pile head should not exceed 0.2 m, (b) rotations at pile head should not exceed 0.5°. A Bayesian system identification framework is adapted to the classical reliability analysis procedure. Using this framework, a reliability assessment can be directly implemented to the updated finite element model without performing time-consuming methods. For numerical verification, simulation data of the finite model of a real offshore wind-turbine structure is investigated using the three-stage methodology.

Keywords: Offshore wind turbines, SHM, reliability assessment, soil-structure interaction

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Authors: Raed KOUTA, José-Alcebiades-Ernesto HLUNGUANE, Eric Châtele

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The search for and exploitation of new fossil energy resources is taking place in the context of the gradual depletion of existing deposits. Despite the adoption of international targets to combat global warming, the demand for fuels continues to grow, contradicting the movement towards an energy-efficient society. The increase in the share of offshore in global hydrocarbon production tends to compensate for the depletion of terrestrial reserves, thus constituting a major challenge for the players in the sector. Through the economic potential it represents, and the energy independence it provides, offshore exploitation is also a challenge for States such as Mozambique, which have large maritime areas and whose environmental wealth must be considered. The exploitation of new reserves on economically viable terms depends on available technologies. The development of deep and ultra-deep offshore requires significant research and development efforts. Progress has also been made in managing the multiple risks inherent in this activity. Our study proposes a reliability approach to develop products and processes designed to live at sea. Indeed, the context of an offshore platform requires highly reliable solutions to overcome the difficulties of access to the system for regular maintenance and quick repairs and which must resist deterioration and degradation processes. One of the characteristics of failures that we consider is the actual conditions of use that are considered 'extreme.' These conditions depend on time and the interactions between the different causes. These are the two factors that give the degradation process its dynamic character, hence the need to develop dynamic reliability models. Our work highlights mathematical models that can explicitly manage interactions between components and process variables. These models are accompanied by numerical resolution methods that help to structure a dynamic reliability approach in a physical and probabilistic context. The application developed makes it possible to evaluate the reliability, availability, and maintainability of a floating storage and unloading platform for liquefied natural gas production.

Keywords: dynamic reliability, offshore plateform, stochastic process, uncertainties

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zonoozian

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For such important constructions as jacket type platforms, scrupulous attention in analysis, design and calculation processes is needed. The reliability assessment method has been established into an extensively used method to behavior safety calculation of jacket platforms. In the present study, a methodology for the reliability calculation of an offshore jacket platform in contradiction of the extreme wave loading state is available. Therefore, sensitivity analyses are applied to acquire the nonlinear response of jacket-type platforms against extreme waves. The jacket structure is modeled by applying a nonlinear finite-element model with regards to the tubular members' behave. The probability of a member’s failure under extreme wave loading is figured by a finite-element reliability code. The FORM and SORM approaches are applied for the calculation of safety directories and reliability indexes have been detected. A case study for a fixed jacket-type structure positioned in the Persian Gulf is studied by means of the planned method. Furthermore, to define the failure standards, equations suggested by the 21st version of the API RP 2A-WSD for The jacket-type structures’ tubular members designing by applying the mixed axial bending and axial pressure. Consequently, the effect of wave Loades in the reliability index was considered.

Keywords: Jacket-Type structure, reliability, failure probability, tubular members

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Authors: Okoro Ikechukwu Ralph, Fuat Kara

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The discoveries of hydrocarbon reserves has clearly drifted offshore, and in deeper waters - areas where the industry still has limited knowledge; and that were hitherto, regarded as being out of reach. This shift presents significant and increased challenges in technology requirements needed to guarantee safety of personnel, environment and equipment; ensure high reliability of installed equipment; and provide high level of confidence in security of investment and company reputation. Nowhere are these challenges more apparent than on subsea well integrity and production performance. The past two decades has witnessed enormous rise in deep and ultra-deep water offshore field developments for the recovery of hydrocarbons. Subsea installed equipment at the seabed has been the technology of choice for these developments. This paper discusses the role of Subsea Control module (SCM) as a vital factor for deep-water well integrity and production performance. A case study for Deep-water well integrity and production performance is analysed.

Keywords: offshore reliability, production performance, subsea control module, well integrity

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Authors: Malinda Gayan Sirisena

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The aim of this research is to evaluate the effectiveness of software quality assurance approaches of Sri Lankan offshore software development organizations, and to propose a framework which could be used across all offshore software development organizations. An empirical study was conducted using derived framework from popular software quality evaluation models. The research instrument employed was a questionnaire survey among thirty seven Sri Lankan registered offshore software development organizations. The findings demonstrate a positive view of Effectiveness of Software Quality Assurance – the stronger predictors of Stability, Installability, Correctness, Testability and Changeability. The present study’s recommendations indicate a need for much emphasis on software quality assurance for the Sri Lankan offshore software development organizations.

Keywords: software quality assurance (SQA), offshore software development, quality assurance evaluation models, effectiveness of quality assurance

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Authors: Siva Sankara Arudra, Kamaruzaman Baharuddin, Ir. Ahmed Fadzil Mustafa Kamal, Ir. Abdul Latif Mohamed

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The advancement of electrical and electronics technologies has rewarded the oil and gas industry with great opportunities to embed more environmentally solutions into design. Most offshore oil and gas producers have their engineering and production asset goals to promote greater use of environmentally friendly compression system technologies to eliminate hazardous emissions from conventional gas compressor drivers. Therefore, this paper comprehensively elaborates the parametric study conducted in integrating the latest electrical and electronics drives technology into the existing compression system. This study was conducted in aspects of layout, reliability & availability, maintainability, emission, and cost. An existing offshore facility that utilized gas turbines as the driver for gas compression was set as Conventional Case for this study. The Electrification Case will utilize electric motor drives as the driver for the compression system. Findings from this study indicate more advantages in driver electrification compared to conventional compression systems. The findings of this paper can be set as a benchmark for future offshore driver selection for gas compression systems of similar operating parameters and power range.

Keywords: turbomachinery, electrification, emission, compression system

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Authors: C. Njoku Paul

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This paper deals with systems engineering applications design for offshore oil drilling production platform in the Nigerian Marine Environment. Engineering Design model of the distribution and accumulation of petroleum hydrocarbons discharged into marine environment production platform and sources of impact of an offshore is treated.

Keywords: design of offshore oil drilling production platform, marine, environment, petroleum hydrocarbons

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Authors: F. D. Konstandakopoulou, G. A. Papagiannopoulos, N. G. Pnevmatikos, G. D. Hatzigeorgiou

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This paper examines the effects of pile-soil-structure interaction on the dynamic response of offshore platforms under the action of near-fault earthquakes. Two offshore platforms models are investigated, one with completely fixed supports and one with piles which are clamped into deformable layered soil. The soil deformability for the second model is simulated using non-linear springs. These platform models are subjected to near-fault seismic ground motions. The role of fault mechanism on platforms’ response is additionally investigated, while the study also examines the effects of different angles of incidence of seismic records on the maximum response of each platform.

Keywords: hazard analysis, offshore platforms, earthquakes, safety

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Authors: Zuodong Liang, Dong-Sheng Jeng

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Seabed instability around an offshore pipeline is one of key factors that need to be considered in the design of offshore infrastructures. Unlike previous investigations, a three-dimensional numerical model for the wave-induced soil response around an offshore pipeline is proposed in this paper. The numerical model was first validated with 2-D experimental data available in the literature. Then, a parametric study will be carried out to examine the effects of wave, seabed characteristics and confirmation of pipeline. Numerical examples demonstrate significant influence of wave obliquity on the wave-induced pore pressures and the resultant seabed liquefaction around the pipeline, which cannot be observed in 2-D numerical simulation.

Keywords: pore pressure, 3D wave model, seabed liquefaction, pipeline

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Authors: Xie Kefeng, Zhang He

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For the stability and control demand of offshore small floating platform, a 2-HUS/U parallel mechanism was presented as offshore platform. Inverse kinematics was obtained by institutional constraint equation, and the dynamic model of offshore 2-HUS/U parallel platform was derived based on rigid body’s Lagrangian method. The equivalent moment of inertia, damping and driving force/torque variation of offshore 2-HUS/U parallel platform were analyzed. A numerical example shows that, for parallel platform of given motion, system’s equivalent inertia changes 1.25 times maximally. During the movement of platform, they change dramatically with the system configuration and have coupling characteristics. The maximum equivalent drive torque is 800 N. At the same time, the curve of platform’s driving force/torque is smooth and has good sine features. The control system needs to be adjusted according to kinetic equation during stability and control and it provides a basis for the optimization of control system.

Keywords: 2-HUS/U platform, dynamics, Lagrange, parallel platform

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Authors: Ahmad Saifullah Mazlan, Hossein Basser, Shatirah Akib

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Scouring pattern evaluation and measuring its depth around coastal and offshore structures is very essential issue to assure the safety of the structures as well as providing needed design parameters. Scouring is known as one of the important phenomena which threatens the safety of infrastructures. Several countermeasures have been developed to control scouring by protecting the structures against water flow attack directly or indirectly by changing the water flow pattern. Recently, monitoring methods for estimating water flow pattern and scour depth are studied to track the safety of structures. Since most of studies regarding scouring is related to monitoring scouring around piers in rivers therefore it is necessary to develop researches investigating scouring around piers in coastal and offshore areas. This paper describes a review of monitoring methods may be used for detecting scour depth around piers in coastal and offshore structures.

Keywords: scour, monitoring, pier, coastal, offshore

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Authors: Biswanath Swain

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Ethical relativism, as an ethical perspective, holds that moral worth of a course of action is dependent on a particular space and time. Moral rightness or wrongness of a course of action varies from space to space and from time to time. In short, ethical relativism holds that morality is relative to the context. If we reflect conscientiously on the scope of this perspective, we will find that it is wide-spread amongst the marketers involved in the offshore business. However, the irony is that most of the marketers gone along with ethical relativism in their offshore business have been found to be unsuccessful in terms of loss in market-share and bankruptcy. The upshot is purely self-defeating in nature for the marketers. GSK in China and Nestle Maggi in India are some of the burning examples of that sort. The paper argues and recommends that a marketer, as an alternative, should have recourse to Kantian ethical perspective to deliberate courses of action sensitive to offshore business as Kantian ethical perspective is logically and methodologically sound in nature.

Keywords: business, course of action, Kant, morality, offshore, relativism

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Authors: Michelle J. Miller

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In recent year, there has been a rise of two emerging issues that impact the global employment and business market that the legal community must review closer: offshore outsourcing and data privacy. These two issues intersect because employment opportunities are shifting due to offshore outsourcing and some States, like the United States, anti-outsourcing legislation has been passed or presented to retain jobs within the country. In addition, the legal requirements to retain the privacy of data as a global employer extends to employees and third party service provides, including services outsourced to offshore locations. For this reason, this paper will review the intersection of these two issues with a specific focus on data privacy.

Keywords: outsourcing, data privacy, international compliance, multinational corporations

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Authors: R. A. Deshpande, P. Chandhra Sekhar, V. Sankar

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In this paper, we discussed the basic reliability evaluation techniques needed to evaluate the reliability of distribution systems which are applied in distribution system planning and operation. Basically, the reliability study can also help to predict the reliability performance of the system after quantifying the impact of adding new components to the system. The number and locations of new components needed to improve the reliability indices to certain limits are identified and studied.

Keywords: distribution system, reliability indices, urban feeder, rural feeder

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Authors: Mohammad Sadegh Narges, Zahra Ghadampour

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Due to the specific condition, offshore pipelines are given careful consideration and care in both design and operation. Most of the offshore pipeline flows are multi-phase. Multi-phase flows construct different pattern or flow regimes (in simultaneous gas-liquid flow, flow regimes like slug flow, wave and …) under different circumstances. One of the influencing factors on the flow regime is the pipeline roughness value. So far, roughness value influences and the sensitivity of the present models to this parameter have not been taken into consideration. Therefore, roughness value influences on the flow regimes in offshore pipelines are discussed in this paper. Results showed that geometry, absolute pipeline roughness value (materials that the pipeline is made of) and flow phases prevailing the system are of the influential parameters on the flow regimes prevailing multi-phase pipelines in a way that a change in any of these parameters results in a change in flow regimes in all or part of the pipeline system.

Keywords: absolute roughness, flow regime, multi-phase flow, offshore pipelines

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Authors: A. Aboubakr, E. Fehling, S. A. Mourad, M. Omar

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Wind energy is one of the most effective renewable sources especially offshore wind energy although offshore wind technology is more costly to produce. It is well known that offshore wind energy can potentially be very cheap once infrastructure and researches improve. Laterally, the trend is to construct offshore wind energy to generate the electricity form wind. This leads to intensive research in order to improve the infrastructures. Offshore wind energy is the construction of wind farms in bodies of water to generate electricity from wind. The most important part in offshore wind turbine structure is the foundation and its connection with the wind tower. This is the main difference between onshore and offshore structures. Grouted connection between the foundation and the wind tower is the most important part of the building process when constructing wind offshore turbines. Most attention should be paid to the actual grout connection as this transfers the loads safely from tower to foundations and the soil also. In this paper, finite element analyses have been carried out for studying the behaviour of offshore grouted connection for wind turbine structures. ATENA program have been used for non-linear analysis simulation of the real structural behavior thus demonstrating the crushing, cracking, contact between the two materials and steel yielding. A calibration of the material used in the simulation has been carried out assuring an accurate model of the used material by ATENA program. This calibration was performed by comparing the results from the ATENA program with experimental results to validate the material properties used in ATENA program. Three simple patch test models with different properties have been performed. The research is concluded with a result that the calibration showing a good agreement between the ATENA program material behaviors and the experimental results.

Keywords: grouted connection, 3D modeling, finite element analysis, offshore wind energy turbines, stresses

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Authors: A. S. Cheliyan, S. K. Bhattacharyya

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Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) is employed in marine vessels of the offshore oil and gas industry. It is a computer controlled system to automatically maintain a ship’s position and heading by using its own thrusters. Reliability assessment of the same can be analyzed through conventional fault tree. However, the complex behaviour like sequence failure, redundancy management and priority of failing of events cannot be analyzed by the conventional fault trees. The Dynamic Fault Tree (DFT) addresses these shortcomings of conventional Fault Tree by defining additional gates called dynamic gates. Monte Carlo based simulation approach has been adopted for the dynamic gates. This method of realistic modeling of DPS gives meaningful insight into the system reliability and the ability to improve the same.

Keywords: dynamic positioning system, dynamic fault tree, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability assessment

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Authors: Jann-Eike Saathoff, Kirill Alexander Schmoor, Martin Achmus, Mauricio Terceros

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By using partial factors of safety, uncertainties due to the inherent variability of the soil properties and loads are taken into account in the geotechnical design process. According to the reliability index concept in Eurocode-0 in conjunction with Eurocode-7 a minimum safety level of β = 3.8 for reliability class RC2 shall be established. The reliability of the system depends heavily on the choice of the prespecified safety factor and the choice of the characteristic soil properties. The safety factors stated in the standards are mainly based on experience. However, no general accepted method for the calculation of a characteristic value within the current design practice exists. In this study, a laterally loaded monopile is investigated and the influence of the chosen quantile values of the deterministic system, calculated with p-y springs, will be presented. Monopiles are the most common foundation concepts for offshore wind energy converters. Based on the calculations for non-cohesive soils, a recommendation for an appropriate quantile value for the necessary safety level according to the standards for a deterministic design is given.

Keywords: asymptotic sampling, characteristic value, monopile foundation, probabilistic design, quantile values

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Authors: Ji Xi, Cheng Song Chin, Ehsan Mesbahi

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Structure-borne noise is an important aspect of offshore platform sound field. It can be generated either directly by vibrating machineries induced mechanical force, indirectly by the excitation of structure or excitation by incident airborne noise. Therefore, limiting of the transmission of vibration energy throughout the offshore platform is the key to control the structure-borne noise. This is usually done by introducing damping treatment to the steel structures. Two types of damping treatment using on-board are presented. By conducting a statistical energy analysis (SEA) simulation on a jack-up rig, the noise level in the source room, the neighboring rooms, and remote living quarter cabins are compared before and after the damping treatments been applied. The results demonstrated that, in the source neighboring room and living quarter area, there is a significant noise reduction with the damping treatment applied, whereas in the source room where air-borne sound predominates that of structure-borne sound, the impact is not obvious. The subsequent optimization design of damping treatment in the offshore platform can be made which enable acoustic professionals to implement noise control during the design stage for offshore crews’ hearing protection and habitant comfortability.

Keywords: statistical energy analysis, damping treatment, noise control, offshore platform

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Authors: Srinivasan Chandrasekaran, R. Nagavinothini

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Offshore platforms for ultra-deep waters are form-dominant by design; hybrid systems with large flexibility in horizontal plane and high rigidity in vertical plane are preferred due to functional complexities. Offshore triceratops is relatively a new-generation offshore platform, whose deck is partially isolated from the supporting buoyant legs by ball joints. They allow transfer of partial displacements of buoyant legs to the deck but restrain transfer of rotational response. Buoyant legs are in turn taut-moored to the sea bed using pre-tension tethers. Present study will discuss detailed dynamic analysis and preliminary design of the chosen geometric, which is necessary as a proof of validation for such design applications. A detailed numeric analysis of triceratops at 2400 m water depth under random waves is presented. Preliminary design confirms member-level design requirements under various modes of failure. Tether configuration, proposed in the study confirms no pull-out of tethers as stress variation is comparatively lesser than the yield value. Presented study shall aid offshore engineers and contractors to understand suitability of triceratops, in terms of design and dynamic response behaviour.

Keywords: offshore structures, triceratops, random waves, buoyant legs, preliminary design, dynamic analysis

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Authors: Reza Dezvareh

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The aim of this study is to investigate the amount of wind turbulence on the aero hydrodynamic behavior of offshore wind turbines with a monopile holder platform. Since in the sea, the wind turbine structures are under water and structures interactions, the dynamic analysis has been conducted under combined wind and wave loading. The offshore wind turbines have been investigated undertow models of normal and severe wind turbulence, and the results of this study show that the amplitude of fluctuation of dynamic response of structures including thrust force and base shear force of structures is increased with increasing the amount of wind turbulence, and this increase is not necessarily observed in the mean values of responses. Therefore, conducting the dynamic analysis is inevitable in order to observe the effect of wind turbulence on the structures' response.

Keywords: offshore wind turbine, wind turbulence, structural vibration, aero-hydro dynamic

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Authors: Pardhasaradhi Gudla, Imanual A.

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The generated electrical power in offshore needs to be transmitted to grid which is located in onshore by using subsea cables. Long subsea cables produce reactive power, which should be compensated in order to limit transmission losses, to optimize the transmission capacity, and to keep the grid voltage within the safe operational limits. Installation cost of wind farm includes the structure design cost and electrical system cost. India has targeted to achieve 175GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022 including offshore wind power generation. Due to sea depth is more in India, the installation cost will be further high when compared to European countries where offshore wind energy is already generating successfully. So innovations are required to reduce the offshore wind power project cost. This paper presents the optimized techniques to reduce the installation cost of offshore wind firm with respect to electrical transmission systems. This technical paper provides the techniques for increasing the current carrying capacity of subsea cable by decreasing the reactive power generation (capacitance effect) of the subsea cable. There are many methods for reactive power compensation in wind power plants so far in execution. The main reason for the need of reactive power compensation is capacitance effect of subsea cable. So if we diminish the cable capacitance of cable then the requirement of the reactive power compensation will be reduced or optimized by avoiding the intermediate substation at midpoint of the transmission network.

Keywords: offshore wind power, optimized techniques, power system, sub sea cable

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Authors: Mehul Srivastava, Sharma Tushar Ravikant, Mridul Krishn Mishra

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In structural design, the evaluation of safety and probability failure of structure is of significant importance, mainly when the variables are random. On real structures, structural reliability can be evaluated obtaining an implicit limit state function. The structural reliability limit state function is obtained depending upon the statistically independent variables. In the analysis of reliability, we considered the statistically independent random variables to be the load intensity applied and the depth or height of the beam member considered. There are many approaches for structural reliability problems. In this paper Extreme Learning Machine technique and First Order Second Moment Method is used to determine the reliability indices for the same set of variables. The reliability index obtained using ELM is compared with the reliability index obtained using FOSM. Higher the reliability index, more feasible is the method to determine the reliability.

Keywords: reliability, reliability index, statistically independent, extreme learning machine

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Authors: Pavel Shcherban, Viktoria Ivanova, Alexander Neprokin, Vladislav Golovanov

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Currently, LLC «Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft» is implementing a comprehensive program for the development of offshore fields of the Kaliningrad region. This is largely associated with the depletion of the resource base of land in the region, as well as the positive results of geological investigation surrounding the Baltic Sea area and the data on the volume of hydrocarbon recovery from a single offshore field are working on the Kaliningrad region – D-6 «Kravtsovskoye».The article analyzes the main stages of the LLC «Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft»’s development program for the development of the hydrocarbon resources of the region's shelf and suggests an optimization algorithm that allows managing a multi-criteria process of development of shelf deposits. The algorithm is formed on the basis of the problem of sequential decision making, which is a section of dynamic programming. Application of the algorithm during the consolidation of the initial data, the elaboration of project documentation, the further exploration and development of offshore fields will allow to optimize the complex of technical and technological solutions and increase the economic efficiency of the field development project implemented by LLC «Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft».

Keywords: offshore fields of hydrocarbons of the Baltic Sea, development of offshore oil and gas fields, optimization of the field development scheme, solution of multicriteria tasks in oil and gas complex, quality management in oil and gas complex

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Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

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Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: wind energy project, uncertain resources, risks, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Anna Crivellari, Valerio Cozzani

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Even though most of the electricity produced in the entire world still comes from fossil fuels, new policies are being implemented in order to promote a more sustainable use of energy sources. Offshore renewable resources have become increasingly attractive thanks to the huge entity of power potentially obtained. However, the intermittent nature of renewables often limits the capacity of the systems and creates mismatches between supply and demand. Hydrogen is foreseen to be a promising vector to store and transport large amounts of excess renewable power by using existing oil and gas infrastructure. In this work, an offshore hybrid energy system integrating wind energy conversion with hydrogen production was conceptually defined and applied to offshore gas platforms. A techno-economic analysis was performed by considering two different locations for the installation of the innovative power system, i.e., the North Sea and the Adriatic Sea. The water depth, the distance of the platform from the onshore gas grid, the hydrogen selling price and the green financial incentive were some of the main factors taken into account in the comparison. The results indicated that the use of well-defined indicators allows to capture specifically different cost and revenue features of the analyzed systems, as well as to evaluate their competitiveness in the actual and future energy market.

Keywords: cost analysis, energy efficiency assessment, hydrogen production, offshore wind energy

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Authors: Paul Buchana, Patrick E. Mc Sharry

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In 2017 there will be about 38 wind farms in the North Sea belonging to 5 different countries. The North Sea is ideal for offshore wind power generation and is thus attractive to offshore wind energy developers and investors. With concerns about the potential for offshore wind turbines to sustain substantial damage as a result of extreme weather conditions, particularly windstorms, this poses a unique challenge to insurers and reinsurers as to adequately quantify the risk and offer appropriate insurance cover for these assets. The need to manage this risk also concerns regulators, who provide the oversight needed to ensure that if a windstorm or a series of storms occur in this area over a one-year time frame, the insurers of these assets in the EU remain solvent even after meeting consequent damage costs. In this paper, using available European windstorm data for the past 33 years and actual wind farm locations together with information pertaining to each of the wind farms (number of turbines, total capacity and financial value), we present a Monte Carlo simulation approach to assess the number of turbines that would be buckled in each of the wind farms using maximum wind speeds reaching each of them. These wind speeds are drawn from historical windstorm data. From the number of turbines buckled, associated financial loss and output capacity can be deduced. The results presented in this paper are targeted towards offshore wind energy developers, insurance and reinsurance companies and regulators.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, North Sea wind farms, offshore wind power, risk analysis

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Authors: Hamid Ahmadi, Amirreza Ghaffari

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Fatigue life of tubular joints in offshore structures is not only dependent on the value of hot-spot stress, but is also significantly influenced by the through-the-thickness stress distribution characterized by the degree of bending (DoB). The DoB exhibits considerable scatter calling for greater emphasis in accurate determination of its governing probability distribution which is a key input for the fatigue reliability analysis of a tubular joint. Although the tubular X-joints are commonly found in offshore jacket structures, as far as the authors are aware, no comprehensive research has been carried out on the probability distribution of the DoB in tubular X-joints. What has been used so far as the probability distribution of the DoB in reliability analyses is mainly based on assumptions and limited observations, especially in terms of distribution parameters. In the present paper, results of parametric equations available for the calculation of the DoB have been used to develop probability distribution models for the DoB in the chord member of tubular X-joints subjected to four types of bending loads. Based on a parametric study, a set of samples was prepared and density histograms were generated for these samples using Freedman-Diaconis method. Twelve different probability density functions (PDFs) were fitted to these histograms. The maximum likelihood method was utilized to determine the parameters of fitted distributions. In each case, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate the goodness of fit. Finally, after substituting the values of estimated parameters for each distribution, a set of fully defined PDFs have been proposed for the DoB in tubular X-joints subjected to bending loads.

Keywords: tubular X-joint, degree of bending (DoB), probability density function (PDF), Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test

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Authors: Soroor K. H. Al-Khafaji, Manal Mohammad Abed

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The research aim of this paper is to evaluate the reliability of a complex engineering system and to design a fuzzy model for the reliability estimation. The designed model has been applied on Vegetable Oil Purification System (neutralization system) to help the specialist user based on the concept of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) to estimate the reliability of the repairable system at the vegetable oil industry. The fuzzy model has been used to predict the system reliability for a future time period, depending on a historical database for the two past years. The model can help to specify the system malfunctions and to predict its reliability during a future period in more accurate and reasonable results compared with the results obtained by the traditional method of reliability estimation.

Keywords: fuzzy logic, reliability, repairable systems, FMEA

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