Search results for: intended first asking/offer prices

Authors: Abdelkader Hadjoudja, Hajar Bouazza

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The PLD/CPLD devices are widely used for logic synthesis since several decades. Based on sum of product terms (PTs) architecture, the PLD/CPLD offer a high degree of flexibility to support various application requirements. They are suitable for large combinational logic, finite state machines as well as intensive I/O designs. CPLDs offer very predictable timing characteristics and are therefore ideal for critical control applications. This paper describes how the logic synthesis techniques, such as 1) XOR detection, 2) logic doubling, 3) complement of a Boolean function are combined, applied and used to optimize the CPLDs devices architecture that is based on PAL-like macrocells. Our goal is to use these techniques for minimizing the number of macrocells required to implement a circuit and minimize the delay of mapped circuit.

Keywords: CPLD, doubling, optimization, XOR

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Authors: Sarah Rietze, Hannes Zacher

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Daily stand-up meetings are the most commonly used method in agile teams. In daily stand-ups, team members gather to coordinate and align their efforts, typically for a predefined period of no more than 15 minutes. The primary purpose is to ask and answer the following three questions: What was accomplished yesterday? What will be done today? What obstacles are impeding my progress? Daily stand-ups aim to enhance communication, mutual understanding, and support within the team, as well as promote collective learning from mistakes through daily synchronization and transparency. The use of daily stand-ups is intended to positively influence psychological safety within teams, which is the belief that it is safe to show oneself and take personal risks. Two studies will be presented, which explore the relationships between daily stand-ups, psychological safety, and psychological well-being. In a first study, based on survey results (n = 318), we demonstrated that daily stand-ups have a positive indirect effect on job satisfaction and a negative indirect effect on turnover intention through their impact on psychological safety. In a second study, we investigate, using an experimental design, how the use of daily stand-ups in teams enhances psychological safety and well-being compared to a control group that does not use daily stand-ups. Psychological safety is considered one of the most crucial cultural factors for a sustainable, agile organization. Agile approaches, such as daily stand-ups, are a critical part of the evolving work environment and offer a proactive means to shape and foster psychological safety within teams.

Keywords: occupational wellbeing, agile work practices, psychological safety, daily stand-ups

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Authors: Vandana Deswal

Abstract:

Spas have been bringing people from far and near. They have long been recognized as the place for healing, relaxation, rejuvenation, and pampering. As the economies look forward to the newer ways of earning revenues; spas offer a bright option to the tourism of a place. They have become a strong pillar of hospitality and tourism industry in developed nations and developing nations can learn from their example. This paper is an attempt to study the impact of the spa industry on the tourism industry and to offer suggestions to strengthen this impact by understanding the situation in a developed economy (USA) and a developing one (India). A survey has been conducted on a sample size of 200 and the percentage analysis of the data reveals that spas can significantly add to the tourism of a place if they work on the accreditation system and put in more money and thought on their marketing plans.

Keywords: impact, India, marketing, spa, tourism, USA

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Authors: Michael Kenomore, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah, Hom Dhakal

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Shale gas reservoirs have been of greater importance compared to shale oil reservoirs since 2009 and with the current nature of the oil market, understanding the technical and economic performance of shale gas reservoirs is of importance. Using the Barnett shale as a case study, an economic model was developed to quantify the effect of finding and development costs and gas prices on the basins in the Barnett shale using net present value as an evaluation parameter. A rate of return of 20% and a payback period of 60 months or less was used as the investment hurdle in the model. The Barnett was split into four basins (Strawn Basin, Ouachita Folded Belt, Forth-worth Syncline and Bend-arch Basin) with analysis conducted on each of the basin to provide a holistic outlook. The dataset consisted of only horizontal wells that started production from 2008 to at most 2015 with 1835 wells coming from the strawn basin, 137 wells from the Ouachita folded belt, 55 wells from the bend-arch basin and 724 wells from the forth-worth syncline. The data was analyzed initially on Microsoft Excel to determine the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR). The range of EUR from each basin were loaded in the Palisade Risk software and a log normal distribution typical of Barnett shale wells was fitted to the dataset. Monte Carlo simulation was then carried out over a 1000 iterations to obtain a cumulative distribution plot showing the probabilistic distribution of EUR for each basin. From the cumulative distribution plot, the P10, P50 and P90 EUR values for each basin were used in the economic model. Gas production from an individual well with a EUR similar to the calculated EUR was chosen and rescaled to fit the calculated EUR values for each basin at the respective percentiles i.e. P10, P50 and P90. The rescaled production was entered into the economic model to determine the effect of the finding and development cost and gas price on the net present value (10% discount rate/year) as well as also determine the scenario that satisfied the proposed investment hurdle. The finding and development costs used in this paper (assumed to consist only of the drilling and completion costs) were £1 million, £2 million and £4 million while the gas price was varied from $2/MCF-$13/MCF based on Henry Hub spot prices from 2008-2015. One of the major findings in this study was that wells in the bend-arch basin were least economic, higher gas prices are needed in basins containing non-core counties and 90% of the Barnet shale wells were not economic at all finding and development costs irrespective of the gas price in all the basins. This study helps to determine the percentage of wells that are economic at different range of costs and gas prices, determine the basins that are most economic and the wells that satisfy the investment hurdle.

Keywords: shale gas, Barnett shale, unconventional gas, estimated ultimate recoverable

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Authors: Saba Arif, Anam Nadeem, Roman Kalvin, Muzaffar Ali, Burhan Ali, Juntakan Taweekun

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Globally transportation sector accounts for around 25% of energy demand and nearly 62% of oil consumed. Therefore, new energy sources are required to introduce for this huge demand replenishment of depleting conventional energy sources. Currently, biofuels such as Jatropha trees as an energy carrier for transportation sector are being utilized effectively round the globe. However, climate conditions at low altitudes with an average annual temperature above 20 degrees Celsius and rainfall of 300-1000mm are considered the most suitable environment for the efficient growth of Jatropha trees. The current study is providing a theoretical survey-based analysis to investigate the effect of rate of cultivation of jatropha trees on the reduction of fuel prices and its environmental benefits. The resulted study shows that jatropha tree’s 100 kg seeds give 80kg oil and the conversion process cost is very small as 890 PKR. Moreover, the extraction of oil from Jatropha tree is tax-free compared to other fuels. The analysis proved very essential for potential assessment of Jatropha regarding future energy fuel for transportation sector at global level. Additionally, it can be very beneficial for increment in the total amount of transportation fuel in Pakistan.

Keywords: jatropha tree, environmental impact, energy contents, theoretical survey

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Authors: B. Hamidu, A. Abdulhamid, S. Mohammed, S. Idi

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This study examined the household expenditure pattern on animal products in Bauchi metropolis. A cross-sectional data were collected from 157 households using systematic sampling technique. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation and regression models. The results reveal that the mean age, mean household size, mean monthly income and mean total expenditure on animal products were found to be 39 years, 7 persons, N28,749 and N1,740 respectively. It was also found that household monthly income, number of children and educational level of the household heads (P<0.01) significantly influence the level of household expenditure on animal products. Similarly, income was found to be the most important factor determining the proportion of total expenditure on animal products (20.91%). Income elasticity was found to be 0.66 indicating that for every 1% increase in income, expenditure on animal products would increase by 0.66%. Furthermore, beef was found to be the most preferred (54.83%) and most regularly consumed (61.84%) animal products. However, it was discovered that the major constraints affecting the consumption of animal products were low-income level of the households (29.85%), high cost of animal products (15.82%) and increase in prices of necessities (15.82%). Therefore to improve household expenditure on animal products per capita real income of the households should be improved through creation of employment opportunities. Also stabilization of market prices of animal products and other foods items of necessities through increased production are recommended.

Keywords: animal products, economics, expenditure, households

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Authors: Krzysztof Zieliński, Dariusz Kierzek

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The addition of a small amount of alumina cement to Portland cement results in immediate setting, a rapid increase in the compressive strength and a clear increase of the adhesion to concrete substrate. This phenomenon is used, among others, for the production of liquid floor self-levelling compounds. Alumina cement is several times more expensive than Portland cement and is a component having a significant impact on prices of products manufactured with its use. For the production of liquid floor self-levelling compounds, low-alumina cement containing approximately 40% Al₂O₃ is normally used. The aim of the study was to determine the impact of Portland cement with the addition of alumina cement on the basic physical and mechanical properties of cement slurries and mortars. CEM I 42.5R and three types of alumina cement containing 40%, 50% and 70% of Al₂O₃ were used for the tests. Mixes containing 4%, 6%, 8%, 10% and 12% of different varieties of alumina cement were prepared; for which, the time of initial and final setting, compressive and flexural strength and adhesion to concrete substrate were determined. The analysis of the obtained test results showed that a similar immediate setting effect and clearly better adhesion strength can be obtained using the addition of 6% of high-alumina cement than 12% of low-alumina cement. As the prices of these cements are similar, this can give significant financial savings in the production of liquid floor self-levelling compounds.

Keywords: alumina cement, immediate setting, compression strength, adhesion to substrate

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Authors: Andrew Clark

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McCauley, Bassler, and Gunaratne show that integration I(d) processes as used in economics and finance do not necessarily produce stationary increments, which are required to determine causality in both the short term and the long term. This paper follows their lead and shows I(d) aluminum cash and futures log prices at daily and weekly intervals do not have stationary increments, which means prior causality studies using I(d) processes need to be re-examined. Wavelets based on undifferenced cash and futures log prices do have stationary increments and are used along with transfer entropy (versus cointegration) to measure causality. Wavelets exhibit causality at most daily time scales out to 1 year, and weekly time scales out to 1 year and more. To determine stationarity, localized stationary wavelets are used. LSWs have the benefit, versus other means of testing for stationarity, of using multiple hypothesis tests to determine stationarity. As informational flows exist between cash and futures at daily and weekly intervals, the aluminum market is efficient. Therefore, hedges used by producers and consumers of aluminum need not have a big concern in terms of the underestimation of hedge ratios. Questions about arbitrage given efficiency are addressed in the paper.

Keywords: transfer entropy, nonstationary increments, wavelets, localized stationary wavelets, localized stationary wavelets

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Authors: Milton Jusu

Abstract:

Efforts by the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources and its development partners to introduce “modern” aquaculture in Sierra Leone since the 1970s have not been successful. A number of reasons have been hypothesized, including the suggestion that the market infrastructure and demand for farmed fish were inadequate to stimulate large-scale and widespread aquaculture production in the country. We have assessed the size, structure, networks, and opportunities in fish markets using a combination of Participatory Rural Appraisals (PRAs) and questionnaire surveys conducted in a sample of 29 markets (urban, weekly, wholesale, and retail) and two hundred traders. The study showed that the local fish markets were dynamic, with very high variations in demand and supply. The markets sampled supplied between 135.2 and 9947.6 tonnes/year. Mean prices for fresh fish varied between US$1.12 and US$3.89/kg depending on species, with smoked catfish and shrimps commanding prices as high as US$7.4/kg. It is unlikely that marine capture fisheries can increase their current production levels, and these may, in fact, already be over-exploited and declining. Marine fish supplies are particularly low between July and September. More careful attention to the timing of harvests (rainy season, not dry season) and to species (catfish, not tilapia) (could help in the successful adoption of aquaculture.

Keywords: fisheries, aquaculture, marine, fish ponds

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Authors: Stacy Jarvis

Abstract:

Databases such as JSTOR, RILM and WorldCat have been the main source and storage of literature in the music orb. The Reference Index to Music Literature is a bibliographic database of over 2.6 million citations to writings about music from over 70 countries. The Research Institute produces RILM for the Study of Music at the University of Buffalo. JSTOR is an e-library of academic journals, books, and primary sources. Database JSTOR helps scholars find, utilise, and build upon a vast range of literature through a powerful teaching and research platform. Another database, WorldCat, is the world's biggest library catalogue, assisting scholars in finding library materials online. An evaluation of these databases in the music sphere is conducted by looking into the description and intended use and finding similarities and differences among them. Through comparison, it is found that these aim to serve different purposes, though they have the same goal of providing and storing literature. Also, since each database has different parts of literature that it majors on, the intended use of the three databases is evaluated. This can be found in the description, scope, and intended uses section. These areas are crucial to the research as it addresses the functional or literature differences among the three databases. It is also found that these databases have different quantitative potentials. This is determined by addressing the year each database began collecting literature and the number of articles, periodicals, albums, conference proceedings, music, dissertations, digital media, essays collections, journal articles, monographs, online resources, reviews, and reference materials that can be found in each one of them. This can be found in the sections- description, scope and intended uses and the importance of the database in identifying literature on different topics. To compare the delivery of services to the users, the importance of databases in identifying literature on different topics is also addressed in the section -the importance of databases in identifying literature on different topics. Even though these databases are used in research, they all have disadvantages and advantages. This is addressed in the sections on advantages and disadvantages. This will be significant in determining which of the three is the best. Also, it will help address how the shortcomings of one database can be addressed by utilising two databases together while conducting research. It is addressed in the section- a combination of RILM and JSTOR. All this information revolves around the idea that a huge amount of quantitative and qualitative data can be found in the presented databases on music and digital content; however, each of the given databases has a different construction and material features contributing to the musical scholarship in its way.

Keywords: RILM, JSTOR, WorldCat, database, literature, research

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Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

Abstract:

Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

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Authors: Andrey Matyukhin

Abstract:

Russian official statistics have been showing a steady decline in residential real estate prices for several consecutive years. Price risk in real estate markets is thus affecting various groups of economic agents, namely, individuals, construction companies and financial institutions. Potential use of property derivatives might help mitigate adverse consequences of negative price dynamics. Unless a sustainable price indicator is developed, settlement of such instruments imposes constraints on counterparties involved while imposing restrictions on real estate market development. The study addresses geographical and classification heterogeneity in real estate prices by means of variance analysis in various groups of real estate properties. In conclusion, we determine optimal sample structure of representative real estate assets with sufficient level of price homogeneity. The composite price indicator based on the sample would have a higher level of robustness and reliability and hence improving liquidity in the market for property derivatives through underlying standardization. Unlike the majority of existing real estate price indices, calculated on country-wide basis, the optimal indices for Russian market shall be constructed on the city-level.

Keywords: price homogeneity, property derivatives, real estate price index, real estate price risk

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Authors: S. Tavuyanago

Abstract:

Cartels within the international competition law framework have been dubbed the most egregious of competition law violations; this is because they entail a concerted effort by two or more competitor firms to knowingly ‘rob’ consumers of their welfare through their cooperation instead of competition. The net effect of cartel conduct is that the market is distorted as the colluding firms gain enough market power to constrain the supply of goods or services, ultimately driving up prices. As a result, consumers end up paying inflated prices for goods and services, which eventually affects their welfare. It is against this backdrop that competition authorities worldwide have mounted a robust fight against the proliferation of cartels. In South Africa, the fight against cartels saw an amendment to the Competition Act to allow for criminal prosecution of individuals who cause their firms to take part in cartels. The Competition Amendment Act 1 of 2009 introduced section 73A into the principal Competition Act, making it a criminal offence to engage in cartel conduct. This paper assesses the rationale for criminalisation of cartel conduct, discusses the challenges or potential challenges associated with criminalisation, and provides an evaluation of the efficacy of criminalisation of cartel conduct. It questions whether criminal sanctions for cartel conduct as a competition enforcement tool aimed at deterring such conduct are generally effective and whether they have been effective in South Africa specifically. It concludes by offering recommendations on how to effectively root out cartels.

Keywords: cartels, criminalisation, competition, deterrence, South Africa

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Authors: Rocco Lioy, Tom Dusseldorf, Aline Lehnen, Romain Reding

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A study concerning both the rentability and ecological performance of dairy production in Luxembourg was carried out for the years 2017, 2018 and 2019. The data of 100 dairy farms, referring to the Greenhouse gas emissions (ecology) and the profitability (economy) of dairy production, were evaluated, and the average was compared to the corresponding figures of 80 Luxembourgish dairy farms evaluated in the years 2014, 2015 and 2016. The ecological evaluation could confirm that farm efficiency (especially defined as the lowest ratio between used feedstuff and produced milk) is the key driver for significantly reducing the level of emissions in dairy farms. In both farm groups and in the two periods, the efficient farms show almost the same level of emissions per kg ECM (1,17 kg CO2-eq) in comparison with intensive farms (1,13 kg CO2-eq), and at the same time a by far lowest level of emissions related to the production surface (9,9 vs. 13,9 t CO2-eq/ha). Concerning the economic performances, it could be observed that in the years 2017, 2018 and 2019, the intensive farms (we define intensity in the first place in terms of produced milk pro ha) reached a higher profit (incomes minus costs, only consideration for subsidies) than the efficient farms (4,8 vs. 2,6 €-cent/kg ECM), in contradiction with the observation of the years 2014, 2015 and 2015 (1,5 vs. 3,7 €-cent/kg ECM). The most important reason for this divergent behavior was a change in income and cost structure in the considered periods. In the last period (2017, 2018 and 2019), the milk price was considerably higher than in the previous period, and the production costs were lower. This was of advantage for intensive farms, which produce the highest quantity of milk with a high amount of production means. In the period 2014, 2015 and 2016, with lower milk prices but comparable production costs, the advantage was with efficient farms. In conclusion, we expect that in the next future, when especially the production costs will presumably be much higher than in the last years, the profitableness of dairy farming will decrease. In this case, we assume that efficient farms will provide not only an ecologically but also an economically better performance than production-intensive farms. High milk prices and low production costs are no good incentives for carbon-smart farming.

Keywords: efficiency, intensity, dairy, emissions, prices, costs

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Authors: Mu-Yen Chen, Min-Hsuan Fan, Chia-Chen Chen, Siang-Yu Jhong

Abstract:

In recent years, real estate prediction or valuation has been a topic of discussion in many developed countries. Improper hype created by investors leads to fluctuating prices of real estate, affecting many consumers to purchase their own homes. Therefore, scholars from various countries have conducted research in real estate valuation and prediction. With the back-propagation neural network that has been popular in recent years and the orthogonal array in the Taguchi method, this study aimed to find the optimal parameter combination at different levels of orthogonal array after the system presented different parameter combinations, so that the artificial neural network obtained the most accurate results. The experimental results also demonstrated that the method presented in the study had a better result than traditional machine learning. Finally, it also showed that the model proposed in this study had the optimal predictive effect, and could significantly reduce the cost of time in simulation operation. The best predictive results could be found with a fewer number of experiments more efficiently. Thus users could predict a real estate transaction price that is not far from the current actual prices.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Taguchi method, real estate valuation model, investors

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Authors: Alejandra Yanez, Teresa Benavides, Zita Lopez

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Even before COVID-19, one of the most important challenges that Higher Education faces today is the need for innovative educational methodologies and flexibility. We could all agree that one of the objectives of Higher Education is to provide students with a variety of intellectual and practical skills that, at the same time, will help them develop competitive advantages such as adaptation and critical thinking. Among the strategic objectives of Universidad de Monterrey (UDEM) has been to provide flexibility and satisfaction to students in the delivery modes of the academic offer. UDEM implemented a methodology that combines face to face with synchronous and asynchronous as delivery modes. UDEM goal, in this case, was to implement new technologies and different teaching methodologies that will improve the students learning experience. In this study, the experience of students during courses implemented in new delivery mode was compared with students in courses with traditional delivery modes. Students chose openly either way freely. After everything students around the world lived in 2020 and 2021, one can think that the face to face (traditional) delivery mode would be the one chosen by students. The results obtained in this study reveal that both delivery modes satisfy students and favor their learning process. We will show how the combination of delivery modes provides flexibility, so the proposal is that universities can include them in their academic offer as a response to the current student's learning interests and needs.

Keywords: flexibility, new delivery modes, student satisfaction, academic offer

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Authors: Joachim Onyike

Abstract:

The Federal Government of Nigeria in 2012 came up with a new National Housing Policy; one of its major objectives was to make housing affordable to the poor. Six years down the line, this study was carried out to find out whether the poor have fared better under the new housing policy. Owerri, the capital of Imo State, was adopted as a case study to mirror the situation nationwide. The study population was made up of low-income civil servants, i.e., grade levels 1–6 in the Imo State Civil Service. The study looked at household size, household income, rental levels, house prices, costs of major building materials, land values, land tenure, the interest rate on mortgages, inflation rate, and the status of government interventions, owing to their obvious effect on housing affordability by the low-income earners. The study made use of physical observations, questionnaires, and interviews as well as library studies to elicit relevant information. Housing affordability by the subject population did not improve. It rather dropped. The study came to the conclusion that in spite of the new National Housing Policy, housing affordability by the low-income earners has not improved. The policy as it affects the poor has not been duly implemented by both Federal and State Governments.

Keywords: house prices, housing affordability, housing policy, land values, low-income earners

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Authors: Patricia Jiménez, Rafael Corchuelo

Abstract:

Nowadays the World Wide Web is the most popular source of information that relies on billions of on-line documents. Web mining is used to crawl through these documents, collect the information of interest and process it by applying data mining tools in order to use the gathered information in the best interest of a business, what enables companies to promote theirs. Unfortunately, it is not easy to extract the information a web site provides automatically when it lacks an API that allows to transform the user-friendly data provided in web documents into a structured format that is machine-readable. Rule-based information extractors are the tools intended to extract the information of interest automatically and offer it in a structured format that allow mining tools to process it. However, the performance of an information extractor strongly depends on the search heuristic employed since bad choices regarding how to learn a rule may easily result in loss of effectiveness and/or efficiency. Improving search heuristics regarding efficiency is of uttermost importance in the field of Web Information Extraction since typical datasets are very large. In this paper, we employ an information extractor based on a classical top-down algorithm that uses the so-called Information Gain heuristic introduced by Quinlan and Cameron-Jones. Unfortunately, the Information Gain relies on some well-known problems so we analyse an intuitive alternative, Termini, that is clearly more efficient; we also analyse other proposals in the literature and conclude that none of them outperforms the previous alternative.

Keywords: information extraction, search heuristics, semi-structured documents, web mining.

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Authors: Milton Jusu, Moses Koroma

Abstract:

Efforts by the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources and its development partners to introduce “modern” aquaculture in Sierra Leone since the 1970s have not been successful. A number of reasons have been hypothesized, including the suggestion that the market infrastructure and demand for farmed fish were inadequate to stimulate large-scale and widespread aquaculture production in the country. We have assessed the size, structure, networks and opportunities in fish markets using a combination of Participatory Rural Appraisals (PRAs) and questionnaire surveys conducted in a sample of 29 markets (urban, weekly, wholesale and retail) and two hundred traders. The study showed that the local fish markets were dynamic, with very high variations in demand and supply. The markets sampled supplied between 135.2 and 9947.6 tonnes/year. Mean prices for fresh fish varied between US$1.12 and US$3.89/kg depending on species, with smoked catfish and shrimps commanding prices as high as US$7.4/kg. It is unlikely that marine capture fisheries can increase their current production levels, and these may, in fact, already be over-exploited and declining. Marine fish supplies are particularly low between July and September. More careful attention to the timing of harvests (rainy season, not dry season) and to species (catfish, not tilapia) (could help in the successful adoption of aquaculture.

Keywords: fisheries and aquaculture, fish market, marine fish supplies, harvests

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Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

Abstract:

This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

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Authors: Juan Pedro Aznar Alarcon, Josep Maria Sayeras Maspera

Abstract:

Airbnb and other similar platforms are offering a near substitute to the traditional accommodation service supplied by the hotel sector. In this context, hotels can try to compete by offering higher quality and additional services, which imply the need for new investments or try to compete by reducing prices. The theoretical model presented in this paper analyzes the best response using a sequential game theory model. The main conclusion is that due to the financial constraints that small and medium hotels have these hotels have reduced prices whereas hotels that belong to international groups or have an easy access to financial resources have increased their investment to increase the quality of the service provided. To check the validity of the theoretical model financial data from Barcelona, London and Paris hotels have been used analyzing profitability, quality of the service provided, the investment propensity and the evolution of the gross profit. The model and the empirical data provide the base for some industrial policy in the hospitality industry. To address the extra cost that small hotels in Europe have to face compared by bigger firms would help to improve the level of quality provided and to some extent have positive externalities in terms of job creation and an increasing added value for the industry.

Keywords: Airbnb, profitability, hospitality industry, game theory

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Authors: Despina Yiakoumi, Agathe Rouaix

Abstract:

Laboratory experiments were run to investigate the impact of different design characteristics of the auctions, which have been implemented to procure capacity in the UK’s reformed electricity markets. The experiment studies competition among bidders in procurement multi-unit discrete descending clock auctions under different feedback policies and pricing rules. Theory indicates that feedback policy in combination with the two common pricing rules; last-accepted bid (LAB) and first-rejected bid (FRB), could affect significantly the auction outcome. Two information feedback policies regarding the bidding prices of the participants are considered; with feedback and without feedback. With feedback, after each round participants are informed of the number of items still in the auction and without feedback, after each round participants have no information about the aggregate supply. Under LAB, winning bidders receive the amount of the highest successful bid and under the FRB the winning bidders receive the lowest unsuccessful bid. Based on the theoretical predictions of the alternative auction designs, it was decided to run three treatments. First treatment considers LAB with feedback; second treatment studies LAB without feedback; third treatment investigates FRB without feedback. Theoretical predictions of the game showed that under FRB, the alternative feedback policies are indifferent to the auction outcome. Preliminary results indicate that LAB with feedback and FRB without feedback achieve on average higher clearing prices in comparison to the LAB treatment without feedback. However, the clearing prices under LAB with feedback and FRB without feedback are on average lower compared to the theoretical predictions. Although under LAB without feedback theory predicts the clearing price will drop to the competitive equilibrium, experimental results indicate that participants could still engage in cooperative behavior and drive up the price of the auction. It is showed, both theoretically and experimentally, that the pricing rules and the feedback policy, affect the bidding competitiveness of the auction by providing opportunities to participants to engage in cooperative behavior and exercise market power. LAB without feedback seems to be less vulnerable to market power opportunities compared to the alternative auction designs. This could be an argument for the use of LAB pricing rule in combination with limited feedback in the UK capacity market in an attempt to improve affordability for consumers.

Keywords: descending clock auctions, experiments, feedback policy, market design, multi-unit auctions, pricing rules, procurement auctions

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Authors: Dai-Ling Li, Jung-Fa Cheng, Min-Lang Huang, Yun-Yao Chi

Abstract:

The hedonic pricing model has been popularly applied to describe the economic value of environmental amenities in urban housing, but the results for cultural heritage variables remain relatively ambiguous. In this paper, integrated variables extending by GIS-based data and an existing typology of communities used to examine how cultural heritage and environmental amenities and disamenities affect housing prices across urban communities in Tainan, Taiwan. The developed models suggest that, although a sophisticated variable for central services is selected, the centrality of location is not fully controlled in the price models and thus picked up by correlated peripheral and central amenities such as cultural heritage, open space or parks. Analysis of these correlations permits us to qualify results and present a revised set of relatively reliable estimates. Positive effects on housing prices are identified for views, various types of recreational infrastructure and vicinity of nationally cultural sites and significant landscapes. Negative effects are found for several disamenities including wasteyards, refuse incinerators, petrol stations and industries. The results suggest that systematic hypothesis testing and reporting of correlations may contribute to consistent explanatory patterns in hedonic pricing estimates for cultural heritage and landscape amenities in urban.

Keywords: hedonic pricing model, cultural heritage, landscape amenities, housing

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Authors: Yavuz Yardım

Abstract:

The most important criteria for structural engineering is the structure’s ability to carry intended loads safely. The key element of this ability is mathematical modeling of really loadings situation into a simple loads input to use in structure analysis and design. Amongst many different types of loads, the most challenging load is earthquake load. It is possible magnitude is unclear and timing is unknown. Therefore the concept of intended loads and safety have been built on experience of previous earthquake impact on the structures. Understanding and developing these concepts is achieved by investigating performance of the structures after real earthquakes. Damage after an earthquake provide results of thousands of full-scale structure test under a real seismic load. Thus, Earthquakes reveille all the weakness, mistakes and deficiencies of analysis, design rules and practice. This study deals with lesson learnt from earthquake recoded last two decades in Turkey. Results of investigation after several earthquakes exposes many deficiencies in structural detailing, inappropriate design, wrong architecture layout, and mainly mistake in construction practice.

Keywords: earthquake, seismic assessment, RC buildings, building performance

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Authors: Su-Hyun Cho, Chang-U Chae

Abstract:

Environmental impact assessment techniques have been developed as a result of the worldwide efforts to reduce the environmental impact of global warming. By using the quantification method in the construction industry, it is now possible to manage the greenhouse gas is to systematically evaluate the impact on the environment over the entire construction process. In particular, the proportion of greenhouse gas emissions at the production stage of construction material occupied is high, and efforts are needed in particular in the construction field. In this study, intended for concrete products for the construction materials, by using the LCA evaluation method, we compared the results of environmental impact assessment and carbon emissions of developing products that have been applied low-carbon technologies compared to existing products. As a results, by introducing a raw material of industrial waste, showed carbon reduction. Through a comparison of the carbon emission reduction effect of low-carbon technologies, it is intended to provide academic data for the evaluation of greenhouse gases in the construction sector and the development of low-carbon technologies of the future.

Keywords: CO₂ emissions, CO₂ reduction, ready-mixed concrete, environmental impact assessment

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Authors: Tahsien Okasha

Abstract:

Transplantation medicine is one of the most challenging and complex areas of modern medicine. Some of the key areas for medical management are the problems of transplant rejection, during which the body has an immune response to the transplanted organ, possibly leading to transplant failure and the need to immediately remove the organ from the recipient. When possible, transplant rejection can be reduced through serotyping to determine the most appropriate donor-recipient match and through the use of immunosuppressant drugs. Postoperative care actually begins before the surgery in terms of education, discharge planning, nutrition, pulmonary rehabilitation, and patient/family education. This also allows for expectations to be managed. A multidisciplinary approach is the key, and collaborative team meetings are essential to ensuring that all team members are "on the same page.". The following clinical pathway map and guidelines with the aim to decrease alteration in clinical practice and are intended for those healthcare professionals who look after organ transplant patients. They are also intended to be useful to both medical and surgical trainees as well as nurse specialists and other associated healthcare professionals involved in the care of organ transplant patients. This pathway is general pathway include the general guidelines that can be applicable for all types of organ transplant with special considerations to each organ.

Keywords: organ transplant, clinical pathway, postoperative care, same page

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Authors: Abdulah Fajar

Abstract:

Electronic Procurement System has been implemented at government institution in Indonesia. This system has been developed centrally at Institution of National Procurement Policy (LKPP) and implemented autonomously at either local or national government institution. The lack of competency at many institution on Information Technology Management arise several major problems. The main concern of LKPP to local administrator is assured that the system is running normally and always be able to serve the needs of its users. Monitoring system has been identified as the one of solution to prevent the problems appeared. Monitoring system is developed using Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP) and implemented at LKPP. There are two modules; Main Dashboard and Local Agent. Main Dashboard is intended for LKPP and Local Agent is intended to implement at local autonomous e-procurement system (LPSE). There are several resources that must be monitored such as computation, memory and network traffic. Agile paradigm is applied to this project to assure user and system requirement is met. The length of project is the one of reason why agile paradigm has been chosen. The system has been successfully delivered to LKPP.

Keywords: procurement system, SNMP, LKPP, LPSE

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Authors: S. Sakthivel

Abstract:

Currently, the global economy is based on the hydrocarbon economy, which is referencing the global hydrocarbon industry. Problems of using these fossil fuels (like oil, NG, coal) are emitting greenhouse gases (GHGs) and price fluctuation, supply/distribution, etc. These challenges can be overcome by using clean energy as hydrogen. The hydrogen economy is the use of hydrogen as a low carbon fuel, particularly for hydrogen vehicles, alternative industrial feedstock, power generation, and energy storage, etc. Engineering consulting firms have a significant role in this ambition and green hydrogen value chain (i.e., integration of renewables, production, storage, and distribution to end-users). Typically, the cost of green hydrogen is a function of the price of electricity needed, the cost of the electrolyser, and the operating cost to run the system. This article focuses on economic viability and explores the alluring business scenarios globally. Break-even analysis was carried out for green hydrogen production and in order to evaluate and compare the impact of the electricity price on the production costs of green hydrogen and relate it to fossil fuel-based brown/grey/blue hydrogen costs. It indicates that the cost of green hydrogen production will fall drastically due to the declining costs of renewable electricity prices and along with the improvement and scaling up of electrolyser manufacturing. For instance, in a scenario where electricity prices are below US$ 40/MWh, green hydrogen cost is expected to reach cost competitiveness.

Keywords: green hydrogen, cost analysis, break-even analysis, renewables, electrolyzer

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Authors: Zo Hasina Rabemananjara

Abstract:

The North-East of Madagascar is the pillar of Madagascar's foreign trade, providing 41% and 80% of world exports of cloves and vanilla, respectively, in 2016. For Madagascar, the north-eastern escarpment is home to the last massifs of humid forest in large scale of the island, surrounded by a small scale agricultural mosaic. In the sites where this study is taking place, located in the peripheral zones of protected areas, the production of rent aims to supply international markets. In fact, importers of the cash crops produced in these areas are located mainly in India, Singapore, France, Germany and the United States. Recently, the price of these products has increased significantly, especially from the year 2015. For vanilla, the price has skyrocketed, from an approximate price of 73 USD per kilo in 2015 to more than 250 USD per kilo in 2016. The value of clove exports increased sharply by 49.4% in 2017, largely to Singapore and India due to the sharp increase in exported volume (+47, 6%) in 2017. If the relationship between the rise in prices of rented products and the change in physical environments is known, the evolution of the behavior of land users linked to this aspect was not yet addressed by research. In fact, the consequence of this price increase in the organization of the use of space at the local level still raises questions. Hence, the research question is: to what extent does this improvement in the price of imported products affect user behavior linked to the local organization of access to the factor of soil production? To fully appreciate this change in behavior, surveys of 144 land user households were carried out, and group interviews were also carried out. The results of this research showed that the rise in the prices of annuity products from the year 2015 caused significant changes in the behavior of land users in the study sites. Young people, who have not been attracted to farming for a long time, have started to show interest in it since the period of rising vanilla and clove prices. They have set up their own fields of vanilla and clove cultivation. This revival of interest conferred an important value on the land and caused conflicts especially between family members because the acquisition of the cultivated land was done by inheritance or donation. This change in user behavior has also affected the farmers' life strategy since the latter have decided to abandon rain-fed rice farming, which has long been considered a guaranteed subsistence activity for cash crops. This research will contribute to nourishing scientific reflection on the management of land use and also to support political decision-makers in decision-making on spatial planning.

Keywords: behavior of land users, North-eastern Madagascar, price of export products, spatial planning

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Authors: Disha Bhanot, Vinish Kathuria

Abstract:

This study focusses on the issue of distress sale in horticulture sector in India, which faces unique challenges, given the perishable nature of horticulture crops, seasonal production and paucity of post-harvest produce management links. Distress sale, from a farmer’s perspective may be defined as urgent sale of normal or distressed goods, at deeply discounted prices (way below the cost of production) and it is usually characterized by unfavorable conditions for the seller (farmer). The small and marginal farmers, often involved in subsistence farming, stand to lose substantially if they receive lower prices than expected prices (typically framed in relation to cost of production). Distress sale maximizes price uncertainty of produce leading to substantial income loss; and with increase in input costs of farming, the high variability in harvest price severely affects profit margin of farmers, thereby affecting their survival. The objective of this study is to model the occurrence of distress sale by tomato cultivators in the Indian state of Maharashtra, against the background of differential access to set of factors such as - capital, irrigation facilities, warehousing, storage and processing facilities, and institutional arrangements for procurement etc. Data is being collected using primary survey of over 200 farmers in key tomato growing areas of Maharashtra, asking information on the above factors in addition to seeking information on cost of cultivation, selling price, time gap between harvesting and selling, role of middleman in selling, besides other socio-economic variables. Farmers selling their produce far below the cost of production would indicate an occurrence of distress sale. Occurrence of distress sale would then be modelled as a function of farm, household and institutional characteristics. Heckman-two-stage model would be applied to find the probability/likelihood of a famer falling into distress sale as well as to ascertain how the extent of distress sale varies in presence/absence of various factors. Findings of the study would recommend suitable interventions and promotion of strategies that would help farmers better manage price uncertainties, avoid distress sale and increase profit margins, having direct implications on poverty.

Keywords: distress sale, horticulture, income loss, India, price uncertainity

Procedia PDF Downloads 215