Search results for: hierarchical hidden Markov model

Authors: Konstantopoulos N., Samitas A., E. Vasileiou, Kinias I.

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This article introduces a new view on the month effect study. Applying a Markov Switching Regime model on data from the Greek Time Deposits (TDs) market for the time span January 2003 to October 2013, we examine if there is a month effect on the Greek banking industry. The empirical findings provide convincing evidence for a new king of monthly anomaly. The explanation for the specific abnormality may be the upward deposits window dressing. Further research should be done in order to examine if the specific calendar effect exists in other countries or it is only a Greek phenomenon.

Keywords: calendar anomalies, banking crisis, month effect, Greek banking industry

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Authors: Hany Elsaid Fawaz Abdallah

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This study presents a new artificial neural network(ANN) model to predict the Nusselt Number and pressure drop for the turbulent flow in a triangular corrugated plate heat exchanger for forced air and turbulent water flow. An experimental investigation was performed to create a new dataset for the Nusselt Number and pressure drop values in the following range of dimensionless parameters: The plate corrugation angles (from 0° to 60°), the Reynolds number (from 10000 to 40000), pitch to height ratio (from 1 to 4), and Prandtl number (from 0.7 to 200). Based on the ANN performance graph, the three-layer structure with {12-8-6} hidden neurons has been chosen. The training procedure includes back-propagation with the biases and weight adjustment, the evaluation of the loss function for the training and validation dataset and feed-forward propagation of the input parameters. The linear function was used at the output layer as the activation function, while for the hidden layers, the rectified linear unit activation function was utilized. In order to accelerate the ANN training, the loss function minimization may be achieved by the adaptive moment estimation algorithm (ADAM). The ‘‘MinMax’’ normalization approach was utilized to avoid the increase in the training time due to drastic differences in the loss function gradients with respect to the values of weights. Since the test dataset is not being used for the ANN training, a cross-validation technique is applied to the ANN network using the new data. Such procedure was repeated until loss function convergence was achieved or for 4000 epochs with a batch size of 200 points. The program code was written in Python 3.0 using open-source ANN libraries such as Scikit learn, TensorFlow and Keras libraries. The mean average percent error values of 9.4% for the Nusselt number and 8.2% for pressure drop for the ANN model have been achieved. Therefore, higher accuracy compared to the generalized correlations was achieved. The performance validation of the obtained model was based on a comparison of predicted data with the experimental results yielding excellent accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, corrugated channel, heat transfer enhancement, Nusselt number, pressure drop, generalized correlations

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Authors: Dongping Fang, Lian Duan, Xiaojing Yuan, Mike Xu, Allyn Klunder, Kevin Tan, Suiting Cao, Yeqing Ji

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Accurate prediction of a medical condition with straight clinical evidence is a long-sought topic in the medical management and health insurance field. Although great progress has been made with machine learning algorithms, the medical community is still, to a certain degree, suspicious about the model's accuracy and interpretability. This paper presents an innovative hierarchical attention deep learning model to achieve good prediction and clear interpretability that can be easily understood by medical professionals. This deep learning model uses a hierarchical attention structure that matches naturally with the medical history data structure and reflects the member’s encounter (date of service) sequence. The model attention structure consists of 3 levels: (1) attention on the medical code types (diagnosis codes, procedure codes, lab test results, and prescription drugs), (2) attention on the sequential medical encounters within a type, (3) attention on the medical codes within an encounter and type. This model is applied to predict the occurrence of stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD3), using three years’ medical history of Medicare Advantage (MA) members from a top health insurance company. The model takes members’ medical events, both claims and electronic medical record (EMR) data, as input, makes a prediction of CKD3 and calculates the contribution from individual events to the predicted outcome. The model outcome can be easily explained with the clinical evidence identified by the model algorithm. Here are examples: Member A had 36 medical encounters in the past three years: multiple office visits, lab tests and medications. The model predicts member A has a high risk of CKD3 with the following well-contributed clinical events - multiple high ‘Creatinine in Serum or Plasma’ tests and multiple low kidneys functioning ‘Glomerular filtration rate’ tests. Among the abnormal lab tests, more recent results contributed more to the prediction. The model also indicates regular office visits, no abnormal findings of medical examinations, and taking proper medications decreased the CKD3 risk. Member B had 104 medical encounters in the past 3 years and was predicted to have a low risk of CKD3, because the model didn’t identify diagnoses, procedures, or medications related to kidney disease, and many lab test results, including ‘Glomerular filtration rate’ were within the normal range. The model accurately predicts members A and B and provides interpretable clinical evidence that is validated by clinicians. Without extra effort, the interpretation is generated directly from the model and presented together with the occurrence date. Our model uses the medical data in its most raw format without any further data aggregation, transformation, or mapping. This greatly simplifies the data preparation process, mitigates the chance for error and eliminates post-modeling work needed for traditional model explanation. To our knowledge, this is the first paper on an interpretable deep-learning model using a 3-level attention structure, sourcing both EMR and claim data, including all 4 types of medical data, on the entire Medicare population of a big insurance company, and more importantly, directly generating model interpretation to support user decision. In the future, we plan to enrich the model input by adding patients’ demographics and information from free-texted physician notes.

Keywords: deep learning, interpretability, attention, big data, medical conditions

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Authors: B. Gangloff, L. Mayoral, A. Rezrazi

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Three types of salary distribution are usually proposed by the theorists of distributive justice: Equality, equity and need. Their influence has been studied, taking into consideration (in terms of equity) the performance of the employees and their degree of allegiance/rebellion in what regards discriminatory hierarchical orders, by taking into account the reasons of such allegiance/rebellion (allegiance out of conviction, legalism or opportunism/ethical rebellion). Conducted in Argentina, the study has confronted 480 students (240 male and 240 female) with a practical case in which they had to advise a manager of a real estate agency on the allocation of a bonus amongst his employees. The latter were characterized according to their respective performance, one of them being further defined as being (or not) in a financial need and as having complied (or not) with a discriminatory hierarchical order regarding foreigners. The results show that the distribution of the bonus only follows the rules of equity and need: The employees more efficient, allegiant or in need, are rewarded more than the others. It is also noteworthy that the allegiant employees are rewarded in the same way, regardless of the reason for their allegiance, and that the employee who refuses to adopt a discriminatory conduct is penalized.

Keywords: distributive justice, equity, performance, allegiance, ethics

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Authors: Hamid Reza Shariatmadari

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The Muslims who believe in twelve Imams and believe that their twelfth Imam is now hidden, because of their kind of consideration of immune Imam as their unique canonical authority for interpretation of Islam, are subject of these important questions; how can you be democratic? And can you speak of democracy as the best model of governing? Answering this question, we can talk firstly about the nature of democracy and realize it as a way and mechanism not as a philosophy of identity and secondly we can refer to the nature and functions of Imam in Shiism and thirdly we will focus on the age of Ghaybah (Or concealment of Imam). In such a time we can or have to combine domination of Islamic Faqis (Islamic Jurists) and democracy which is known in Shiite Iran for instance as religious democracy.

Keywords: Shiism, concealment of Imam, Islamic Jurists, Democracy

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Authors: Ahmed Al-Adaileh

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Renewable energy sources, domestic storage systems, controllable loads and machine learning technologies will be key components of future smart homes management systems. An energy management scheme that uses a Deep Learning (DL) approach to support the smart home management systems, which consist of a standalone photovoltaic system, storage unit, heating ventilation air-conditioning system and a set of conventional and smart appliances, is presented. The objective of the proposed scheme is to apply DL-based machine learning to predict various running parameters within a smart home's environment to achieve maximum comfort levels for occupants, reduced electricity bills, and less dependency on the public grid. The problem is using Reinforcement learning, where decisions are taken based on applying the Continuous-time Markov Decision Process. The main contribution of this research is the proposed framework that applies DL to enhance the system's supervised dataset to offer unlimited chances to effectively support smart home systems. A case study involving a set of conventional and smart appliances with dedicated processing units in an inhabited building can demonstrate the validity of the proposed framework. A visualization graph can show "before" and "after" results.

Keywords: smart homes systems, machine learning, deep learning, Markov Decision Process

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Authors: Haytam Kasem

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The problem of quick and easy reversible attachment has become of great importance in different fields of technology. For the reason, during the last decade, a new emerging field of adhesion science has been developed. Essentially inspired by some animals and insects, which during their natural evolution have developed fantastic biological attachment systems allowing them to adhere and run on walls and ceilings of uneven surfaces. Potential applications of engineering bio-inspired solutions include climbing robots, handling systems for wafers in nanofabrication facilities, and mobile sensor platforms, to name a few. However, despite the efforts provided to apply bio-inspired patterned adhesive-surfaces to the biomedical field, they are still in the early stages compared with their conventional uses in other industries mentioned above. In fact, there are some critical issues that still need to be addressed for the wide usage of the bio-inspired patterned surfaces as advanced biomedical platforms. For example, surface durability and long-term stability of surfaces with high adhesive capacity should be improved, but also the friction and adhesion capacities of these bio-inspired microstructures when contacting rough surfaces. One of the well-known prototypes for bio-inspired attachment systems is biomimetic wall-shaped hierarchical microstructure for gecko-like attachments. Although physical background of these attachment systems is widely understood, the influence of counter-face roughness and its relationship with the friction force generated when sliding against wall-shaped hierarchical microstructure have yet to be fully analyzed and understood. To elucidate the effect of the counter-face roughness on the friction of biomimetic wall-shaped hierarchical microstructure we have replicated the isotropic topography of 12 different surfaces using replicas made of the same epoxy material. The different counter-faces were fully characterized under 3D optical profilometer to measure roughness parameters. The friction forces generated by spatula-shaped microstructure in contact with the tested counter-faces were measured on a home-made tribometer and compared with the friction forces generated by the spatulae in contact with a smooth reference. It was found that classical roughness parameters, such as average roughness Ra and others, could not be utilized to explain topography-related variation in friction force. This has led us to the development of an integrated roughness parameter obtained by combining different parameters which are the mean asperity radius of curvature (R), the asperity density (η), the deviation of asperities high (σ) and the mean asperities angle (SDQ). This new integrated parameter is capable of explaining the variation of results of friction measurements. Based on the experimental results, we developed and validated an analytical model to predict the variation of the friction force as a function of roughness parameters of the counter-face and the applied normal load, as well.

Keywords: friction, bio-mimetic micro-structure, counter-face roughness, analytical model

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Authors: Sajjad Farahani, Wilkistar Otieno, Xiaohang Yue

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This paper develops a model for the optimal disposition decision for product returns in a remanufacturing system with limited recoverable inventory capacity. In this model, a constant demand is satisfied by remanufacturing returned products which are up to the minimum required quality grade. The quality grade of returned products is uncertain and remanufacturing cost increases as the quality level decreases, and remanufacturer wishes to determine which returned product to accept to be remanufactured for reselling, and any unaccepted returns may be salvaged at a value that increases with their quality level. Accepted returns can be stocked for remanufacturing upon demand requests, but incur a holding cost. A Markov decision problem is formulated in order to evaluate various performance measures for this system and obtain the optimal remanufacturing policy. A detailed numerical study reveals that our approach to the disposition problem outperforms the current industrial practice ignoring quality grade of returned products. In addition, we identify conditions under which this improvement is the highest.

Keywords: green supply chain management, matrix geometric method, production recovery, reverse supply chains

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Authors: Yulina E. Riany, Divna Haslam, Matthew Sanders

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This cross-cultural study aims to compare the level of parental depression and stress, parenting style use, and child emotional and behavioural problems between parents in Australia as an example of a Western country and parents in Indonesia as an example of Asian culture. A series of hierarchical regressions were undertaken to determine two models examining the factors that predict child problems residing in Australia (Model 1) and in Indonesia (Model 2). The online survey was completed by 179 parents in Australia and 448 parents in Indonesia. Results indicated that Australian parents reported higher levels of depression, authoritative parenting and higher levels of child misbehaviours compared to Indonesian parents. In comparison, Indonesian parents reported higher authoritarian parenting. Analyses performed to examine Model 1 and 2 revealed that parental negative emotional states and parenting style predicted child emotional and behavioural problems in both countries.

Keywords: cross-cutural study, parental stress, parenting, child misbehaviour

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Authors: Kashish Sareen, Jatinder Singh Bal

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The use of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) has grown vastly in the last era, pointing out the crucial need for scalable and energy-efficient routing and data gathering and aggregation protocols in corresponding large-scale environments. Wireless Sensor Networks have now recently emerged as a most important computing platform and continue to grow in diverse areas to provide new opportunities for networking and services. However, the energy constrained and limited computing resources of the sensor nodes present major challenges in gathering data. The sensors collect data about their surrounding and forward it to a command centre through a base station. The past few years have witnessed increased interest in the potential use of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) as they are very useful in target detecting and other applications. However, hierarchical clustering protocols have maximum been used in to overall system lifetime, scalability and energy efficiency. In this paper, the state of the art in corresponding hierarchical clustering approaches for large-scale WSN environments is shown.

Keywords: clustering, DLCC, MLCC, wireless sensor networks

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Authors: Zerroug Abdelhamid, Danielle Chassoux

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Various models are given to simulate homogeneous or heterogeneous cancerous tumors and extract in each case the boundary. The fractal dimension is then estimated by least squares method and compared to some previous methods.

Keywords: simulation, cancerous tumor, Markov fields, fractal dimension, extraction, recovering

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Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

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In this work, a new nonlinear model will be introduced. The model is in the state-space form. The nonlinearity of this model is in the state equation where the state vector is multiplied by its self. This technique makes our model generalizes many famous models as Lotka-Volterra model and Lorenz model which have many applications in the real life. We will apply our new model to estimate the wind speed by using a new nonlinear estimator which suitable to work with our model.

Keywords: nonlinear systems, state-space model, Kronecker product, nonlinear estimator

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Authors: Francis Mugabi, Kevin Duffy, Joseph J. Y. T Mugisha, Obiora Collins

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Bluetongue virus (BTV) has 27 serotypes, with some of them coexisting in patchy (different) environments, which make its control difficult. Wind-aided midge movement is a known mechanism in the spread of BTV. However, its effects on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes are not clear. Deterministic and stochastic models for r BTV serotypes in n discrete patches connected by midge and/or cattle movement are formulated and analyzed. For the deterministic model without midge and cattle movement, using the comparison principle, it is shown that if the patch reproduction number R0 < 1, i=1,2,...,n, j=1,2,...,r, all serotypes go extinct. If R^j_i0>1, competitive exclusion takes place. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that when the n patches are connected by midge movement, coexistence takes place. To account for demographic and movement variability, the deterministic model is transformed into a continuous-time Markov chain stochastic model. Utilizing a multitype branching process, it is shown that the midge movement can have a large effect on the probability of coexistence of multiple BTV serotypes. The probability of coexistence can be brought to zero when the control interventions that directly kill the adult midges are applied. These results indicate the significance of wind-aided midge movement and vector control interventions on the coexistence and control of multiple BTV serotypes in patchy environments.

Keywords: bluetongue virus, coexistence, multiple serotypes, midge movement, branching process

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Authors: Mohita Gangwar Sharma

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Different factors are compelling manufacturers to move towards the phenomenon of servitization i.e. when firms go beyond giving support to the customers in operating the equipment. The challenges that are being faced in this transition by the manufacturing firms from being a product provider to a product- service provider are multipronged. Product-Service Systems (PSS) lies in between the pure-product and pure-service continuum. Through this study, we wish to understand the dimensions of ‘PSS-quality’. We draw upon the quality literature for both the product and services and through an expert survey for a specific transportation sector using analytical hierarchical process (AHP) derive a conceptual model that can be used as a comprehensive measurement tool for PSS offerings.

Keywords: servitisation, quality, product-service system, AHP

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Authors: S. Mousavian, A. Abedianpour, A. Khanmohammadi, S. Hematian, Gh. Eidi Veisi

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Ionic liquids are finding a wide range of applications from reaction media to separations and materials processing. In these applications, Vapor–Liquid equilibrium (VLE) is the most important one. VLE for six systems at 353 K and activity coefficients at infinite dilution 〖(γ〗_i^∞) for various solutes (alkanes, alkenes, cycloalkanes, cycloalkenes, aromatics, alcohols, ketones, esters, ethers, and water) in the ionic liquids (1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis (trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide [EMIM][BTI], 1-hexyl-3-methyl imidazolium bis (trifluoromethylsulfonyl) imide [HMIM][BTI], 1-octyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl) imide [OMIM][BTI], and 1-butyl-1-methylpyrrolidinium bis (trifluoromethylsulfonyl) imide [BMPYR][BTI]) have been used to train neural networks in the temperature range from (303 to 333) K. Densities of the ionic liquids, Hildebrant constant of substances, and temperature were selected as input of neural networks. The networks with different hidden layers were examined. Networks with seven neurons in one hidden layer have minimum error and good agreement with experimental data.

Keywords: ionic liquid, neural networks, VLE, dilute solution

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Authors: I. V. Pinto, M. R. Sooriyarachchi

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It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.

Keywords: goodness-of-fit test, marginal quasi-likelihood, multilevel modelling, penalized quasi-likelihood, power, quasi-likelihood, type-I error

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Authors: Ali Mustafa Elshawesh, Mohamed Abdulali

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The paper presents an approach to dimension circuit switched networks and find the relationship between the parameters of the circuit switched networks on the condition of specific probability of call blocking. Our work is creating a Simulation code based on Erlang (B) formula to draw graphs which show two curves for each graph; one of simulation and the other of calculated. These curves represent the relationships between average number of calls and average call duration with the probability of call blocking. This simulation code facilitates to select the appropriate parameters for circuit switched networks.

Keywords: Erlang B formula, call blocking, telephone system dimension, Markov model, link capacity

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Authors: Hamed Sarbazy, Zohre Gholipour Haftkhani, Ali Safari, Pejman Hosseiniun

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Scientific and industrial progress in the past two decades has resulted in energy distribution systems based on power electronics, as an enabling technology in various industries and building management systems can be considered. Grading and standardization module power electronics systems and its use in a distributed control system, a strategy for overcoming the limitations of using this system. The purpose of this paper is to investigate strategies for scheduling and control structure of standard modules is a power electronic systems. This paper introduces the classical control methods and disadvantages of these methods will be discussed, The hierarchical control as a mechanism for distributed control structure of the classification module explains. The different levels of control and communication between these levels are fully introduced. Also continue to standardize software distribution system control structure is discussed. Finally, as an example, the control structure will be presented in a DC distribution system.

Keywords: application management, hardware management, power electronics, building blocks

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Authors: Zaide Montes Ortiz, Jorge Alberto Molina, Alejandro Reyes

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Insects are extremely successful organisms. A sophisticated olfactory system is in part responsible for their survival and reproduction. The detection of volatile organic compounds can positively or negatively affect many behaviors in insects. Compounds such as carbon dioxide (CO2), ammonium, indol, and lactic acid are essential for many species of mosquitoes like Anopheles gambiae in order to locate vertebrate hosts. For instance, in A. gambiae, the olfactory receptor AgOR2 is strongly activated by indol, which accounts for almost 30% of human sweat. On the other hand, in some insects of agricultural importance, the detection and identification of pheromone receptors (PRs) in lepidopteran species has become a promising field for integrated pest management. For example, with the disruption of the pheromone receptor, BmOR1, mediated by transcription activator-like effector nucleases (TALENs), the sensitivity to bombykol was completely removed affecting the pheromone-source searching behavior in male moths. Then, the detection and identification of olfactory receptors in the genomes of insects is fundamental to improve our understanding of the ecological interactions, and to provide alternatives in the integrated pests and vectors management. Hence, the objective of this study is to propose a bioinformatic workflow to enhance the detection and identification of potential olfactory receptors in genomes of relevant insects. Applying Hidden Markov models (Hmms) and different computational tools, potential candidates for pheromone receptors in Tuta absoluta were obtained, as well as potential carbon dioxide receptors in Rhodnius prolixus, the main vector of Chagas disease. This study showed the validity of a bioinformatic workflow with a potential to improve the identification of certain olfactory receptors in different orders of insects.

Keywords: bioinformatic workflow, insects, olfactory receptors, protein prediction

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a global cause of morbidity and mortality. It has caused panic since its emergence. Relationships between migration and HIV/AIDS have become complex. In the absence of prospectively designed studies, dynamic mathematical models that take into account the migration movement which will give very useful information. We have explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of HIV and AIDS and in assessing the magnitude of how migration has impact on the disease. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia Ministry of Health from the period of 1986 to 2011 using Bayesian analysis with combination of Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) approach to estimate the model parameters. From the estimated parameters, the estimated basic reproduction number was 22.5812. The rate at which the susceptible individual moved to HIV compartment has the highest sensitivity value which is more significant as compared to the remaining parameters. Thus, the disease becomes unstable. This is a big concern and not good indicator from the public health point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. However, these results suggest that the government as a policy maker should make further efforts to curb illegal activities performed by migrants. It is shown that our models reflect considerably the dynamic behavior of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malaysia and eventually could be used strategically for other countries.

Keywords: epidemic model, reproduction number, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Rimma Dzhusupova, Jan Bosch, Helena Holmström Olsson

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) industry has not yet a proven track record in large-scale projects. Since AI solutions for industrial applications became available only recently, deployment experience and lessons learned are still to be built up. Nevertheless, AI has become an attractive technology for organizations looking to automate repetitive tasks to reduce manual work. Meanwhile, the current AI market has started offering various solutions and services. The contribution of this research is that we explore in detail the challenges and obstacles faced in developing and deploying AI in a large-scale project in the EPC industry based on real-life use cases performed in an EPC company. Those identified challenges are not linked to a specific technology or a company's know-how and, therefore, are universal. The findings in this paper aim to provide feedback to academia to reduce the gap between research and practice experience. They also help reveal the hidden stones when implementing AI solutions in the industry.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep learning, innovation, engineering, procurement and construction industry, AI in the EPC industry

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Authors: Carlos Gonzales, Zaida Quiroz, Marcos Prates

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Several spatial variables collected at the same location that share a common spatial distribution can be modeled simultaneously through a multivariate geostatistical model that takes into account the correlation between these variables and the spatial autocorrelation. The main goal of this model is to perform spatial prediction of these variables in the region of study. Here we focus on a geostatistical multivariate formulation that relies on sharing common spatial random effect terms. In particular, the first response variable can be modeled by a mean that incorporates a shared random spatial effect, while the other response variables depend on this shared spatial term, in addition to specific random spatial effects. Each spatial random effect is defined through a Gaussian process with a valid covariance function, but in order to improve the computational efficiency when the data are large, each Gaussian process is approximated to a Gaussian random Markov field (GRMF), specifically to the block nearest neighbor Gaussian process (Block-NNGP). This approach involves dividing the spatial domain into several dependent blocks under certain constraints, where the cross blocks allow capturing the spatial dependence on a large scale, while each individual block captures the spatial dependence on a smaller scale. The multivariate geostatistical model belongs to the class of Latent Gaussian Models; thus, to achieve fast Bayesian inference, it is used the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) method. The good performance of the proposed model is shown through simulations and applications for massive data.

Keywords: Block-NNGP, geostatistics, gaussian process, GRMF, INLA, multivariate models.

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Authors: Debarati Bhaumik, Diptish Dey

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Multilevel models, increasingly deployed in industries such as insurance, food production, and entertainment within functions such as marketing and supply chain management, need to be transparent and ethical. Applications usually result in binary classification within groups or hierarchies based on a set of input features. Using open-source datasets, we demonstrate that popular explainability methods, such as SHAP and LIME, consistently underperform inaccuracy when interpreting these models. They fail to predict the order of feature importance, the magnitudes, and occasionally even the nature of the feature contribution (negative versus positive contribution to the outcome). Besides accuracy, the computational intractability of SHAP for binomial classification is a cause of concern. For transparent and ethical applications of these hierarchical statistical models, sound audit frameworks need to be developed. In this paper, we propose an audit framework for technical assessment of multilevel regression models focusing on three aspects: (i) model assumptions & statistical properties, (ii) model transparency using different explainability methods, and (iii) discrimination assessment. To this end, we undertake a quantitative approach and compare intrinsic model methods with SHAP and LIME. The framework comprises a shortlist of KPIs, such as PoCE (Percentage of Correct Explanations) and MDG (Mean Discriminatory Gap) per feature, for each of these three aspects. A traffic light risk assessment method is furthermore coupled to these KPIs. The audit framework will assist regulatory bodies in performing conformity assessments of AI systems using multilevel binomial classification models at businesses. It will also benefit businesses deploying multilevel models to be future-proof and aligned with the European Commission’s proposed Regulation on Artificial Intelligence.

Keywords: audit, multilevel model, model transparency, model explainability, discrimination, ethics

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Authors: Cameron Hamilton, Walter Potter, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ronald McClendon, Will Hobbs

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A model was constructed to predict the amount of solar radiation that will make contact with the surface of the earth in a given location an hour into the future. This project was supported by the Southern Company to determine at what specific times during a given day of the year solar panels could be relied upon to produce energy in sufficient quantities. Due to their ability as universal function approximators, an artificial neural network was used to estimate the nonlinear pattern of solar radiation, which utilized measurements of weather conditions collected at the Griffin, Georgia weather station as inputs. A number of network configurations and training strategies were utilized, though a multilayer perceptron with a variety of hidden nodes trained with the resilient propagation algorithm consistently yielded the most accurate predictions. In addition, a modeled DNI field and adjacent weather station data were used to bolster prediction accuracy. In later trials, the solar radiation field was preprocessed with a discrete wavelet transform with the aim of removing noise from the measurements. The current model provides predictions of solar radiation with a mean square error of 0.0042, though ongoing efforts are being made to further improve the model’s accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, resilient propagation, solar radiation, time series forecasting

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Authors: Xiaohui Pan

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As the most influential media for the dissemination of Chinese culture, films and television dramas have played cognitive orientation in guiding young audience to understand its cultural value. Taking a retrospective overview of the Chinese domestic film and television dramas in the last decade, it is tangible to notice that Westernization has become irresistible force in the presentation of Chinese youth culture, such as the rise of sensibility, publicity of subjectivity, and the resistance to mainstream discourse. However, the process of deconstruction and transition of these film and television works on Western youth culture brought about more comprehensive conflicts and integration rather than providing a panoramic interpretation to young Chinese. Issues of tradition and modernization, oriental and Western, and serious thinking and the spirit of entertainment overwhelmed those Chinese works. This study attempts to examine the mechanism of young Chinese’s resistance, compromise and re-construction in their marriages during the dynamic cultural intergration between traditional Chinese culture and Western culture. To investigate such a mechanism, this study analyzed four Chinese television dramas themed on family ethics to reveal the conflictions between two generations, mother-in-law and daughter-in-law, aiming to identify their strategies of their struggles. Incorporating the theory of Scott's weapons of the weak, this study examines the dynamic model of the struggles content analysis on their hidden language and the power. The finding shows that young Chinese identified their self-awakening during the resistance. The study also finds out that the external factors might have the functions of switching the power from the strong end to the weak end. The finding of this study can provide useful insights for researchers in this area and for those in the process of exploring cultural integration issues.

Keywords: intergration, integration, resistance, youth culture

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Authors: Fabienne Fel, Eric Griette

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Reshoring, whether concerning back-reshoring or near-reshoring, is a quite recent phenomenon. Despite the economic and political interest of this topic, academic research questioning determinants of reshoring remains rare. Our paper aims at contributing to fill this gap. In order to better understand the reasons for reshoring, we conducted a study among 280 French firms during spring 2016, three-quarters of which sourced, or source, in China. 105 firms in the sample have reshored all or part of their Chinese production or supply in recent years, and we aimed to establish a typology of the motives that drove them to this decision. We asked our respondents about the history of their Chinese supplies, their current reshoring strategies, and their motivations. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS 22 and SPAD 8. Our results show that change in commercial and financial terms with China is the first motive explaining the current reshoring movement from this country (it applies to 54% of our respondents). A change in corporate strategy is the second motive (30% of our respondents); the reshoring decision follows a change in companies’ strategies (upgrading, implementation of a CSR policy, or a 'lean management' strategy). The third motive (14% of our sample) is a mere correction of the initial offshoring decision, considered as a mistake (under-estimation of hidden costs, non-quality and non-responsiveness problems). Some authors emphasize that developing a short supply chain, involving geographic proximity between design and production, gives a competitive advantage to companies wishing to offer innovative products. Admittedly 40% of our respondents indicate that this motive could have played a part in their decision to reshore, but this reason was not enough for any of them and is not an intrinsic motive leading to leaving Chinese suppliers. Having questioned our respondents about the importance given to various problems leading them to reshore, we then performed a Principal Components Analysis (PCA), associated with an Ascending Hierarchical Classification (AHC), based on Ward criterion, so as to point out more specific motivations. Three main classes of companies should be distinguished: -The 'Cost Killers' (23% of the sample), which reshore their supplies from China only because of higher procurement costs and so as to find lower costs elsewhere. -The 'Realists' (50% of the sample), giving equal weight or importance to increasing procurement costs in China and to the quality of their supplies (to a large extend). Companies being part of this class tend to take advantage of this changing environment to change their procurement strategy, seeking suppliers offering better quality and responsiveness. - The 'Voluntarists' (26% of the sample), which choose to reshore their Chinese supplies regardless of higher Chinese costs, to obtain better quality and greater responsiveness. We emphasize that if the main driver for reshoring from China is indeed higher local costs, it is should not be regarded as an exclusive motivation; 77% of the companies in the sample, are also seeking, sometimes exclusively, more reactive suppliers, liable to quality, respect for the environment and intellectual property.

Keywords: China, procurement, reshoring, strategy, supplies

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Authors: Sahar Jami, Iman Valizadeh

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Today banks not only should seek for new customers but also should consider previous maintenance and retention and establish a stable relationship with them. In this term, relationship-manner marketing seeks to make, maintain, and promote the relationship between customers and other stakeholders in benefits to fulfill all involved parties. This fact is possible just by interactive transaction and promises fulfillment. According to the importance of relationship-manner marketing in banks, making context to make relationship-manner marketing has high importance. Therefore, the present study aims at exploring intention condition to relationship-manner marketing in Iran Province Iran Limited bank, and also prioritizing its variables using hierarchical analysis (AHP). There is questionnaire designed in this research to paired comparison of relationship-manner marketing elements. After distributing this questionnaire among statistical society members who are 20 of Iran Limited bank experts, data analysis has been done by Expert Choice software.

Keywords: relationship marketing, relationship market orientation, Saderat Bank of Iran, hierarchical analysis

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Authors: Vaikunthan Rajaratnam

Abstract:

Intro: Motor imagery (MI) and mental practice (MP) can be an alternative to acquire mastery of surgical skills. One component of using this technique is the use of a mental script. The aim of this study was to design and develop a mental script for basic micro suturing training for skill acquisition using a low-fidelity rubber glove model and to describe the detailed methodology for this process. Methods: This study was based on a design and development research framework. The mental script was developed with 5 expert surgeons performing a cognitive walkthrough of the repair of a vertical opening in a rubber glove model using 8/0 nylon. This was followed by a hierarchal task analysis. A draft script was created, and face and content validity assessed with a checking-back process. The final script was validated with the recruitment of 28 participants, assessed using the Mental Imagery Questionnaire (MIQ). Results: The creation of the mental script is detailed in the full text. After assessment by the expert panel, the mental script had good face and content validity. The average overall MIQ score was 5.2 ± 1.1, demonstrating the validity of generating mental imagery from the mental script developed in this study for micro suturing in the rubber glove model. Conclusion: The methodological approach described in this study is based on an instructional design framework to teach surgical skills. This MP model is inexpensive and easily accessible, addressing the challenge of reduced opportunities to practice surgical skills. However, while motor skills are important, other non-technical expertise required by the surgeon is not addressed with this model. Thus, this model should act a surgical training augment, but not replace it.

Keywords: mental script, motor imagery, cognitive walkthrough, verbal protocol analysis, hierarchical task analysis

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Authors: Sayantan Khanra, Rojers P. Joseph

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Background and Significance: This study is aimed at analyzing the role of demographic and service quality variables in the adoption and diffusion of e-government services among the users in India. The study proposes to examine the users' perception about e-Government services and investigate the key variables that are most salient to the Indian populace. Description of the Basic Methodologies: The methodology to be adopted in this study is Hierarchical Regression Analysis, which will help in exploring the impact of the demographic variables and the quality dimensions on the willingness to use e-government services in two steps. First, the impact of demographic variables on the willingness to use e-government services is to be examined. In the second step, quality dimensions would be used as inputs to the model for explaining variance in excess of prior contribution by the demographic variables. Present Status: Our study is in the data collection stage in collaboration with a highly reliable, authentic and adequate source of user data. Assuming that the population of the study comprises all the Internet users in India, a massive sample size of more than 10,000 random respondents is being approached. Data is being collected using an online survey questionnaire. A pilot survey has already been carried out to refine the questionnaire with inputs from an expert in management information systems and a small group of users of e-government services in India. The first three questions in the survey pertain to the Internet usage pattern of a respondent and probe whether the person has used e-government services. If the respondent confirms that he/she has used e-government services, then an aggregate of 15 indicators are used to measure the quality dimensions under consideration and the willingness of the respondent to use e-government services, on a five-point Likert scale. If the respondent reports that he/she has not used e-government services, then a few optional questions are asked to understand the reason(s) behind the same. Last four questions in the survey are dedicated to collect data related to the demographic variables. An indication of the Major Findings: Based on the extensive literature review carried out to develop several propositions; a research model is prescribed to start with. A major outcome expected at the completion of the study is the development of a research model that would help to understand the relationship involving the demographic variables and service quality dimensions, and the willingness to adopt e-government services, particularly in an emerging economy like India. Concluding Statement: Governments of emerging economies and other relevant agencies can use the findings from the study in designing, updating, and promoting e-government services to enhance public participation, which in turn, would help to improve efficiency, convenience, engagement, and transparency in implementing these services.

Keywords: adoption and diffusion of e-government services, demographic variables, hierarchical regression analysis, service quality dimensions

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Authors: Manasse Elusma, Thung-Hong Lin, Chun-yin Lee

Abstract:

The relationship between hunger and war or conflict remains to be discussed. Do wars or conflicts cause hunger and food scarcity, or is the reverse relationship is true? As the world becomes more peaceful and wealthier, some countries are still suffered from hunger and food shortage. So, eradicating hunger calls for a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between conflict and hunger. Several studies are carried out to detect the importance of conflict or war on food security. Most of these studies, however, perform only descriptive analysis and largely use food security indicators instead of the global hunger index. Few studies have employed cross-country panel data to explicitly analyze the association between conflict and chronic hunger, including hidden hunger. Herein, this study addresses this issue and the knowledge gap. We combine global datasets to build a new panel dataset including 143 countries from 1989 to 2020. This study examines the effect of conflict on hunger with fixed effect models, and the results show that the increase of conflict frequency deteriorates hunger. Peacebuilding efforts and war prevention initiative are required to eradicate global hunger.

Keywords: armed conflict, food scarcity, hidden hunger, hunger, malnutrition

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