Search results for: assessment tool
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9627

Search results for: assessment tool

2247 DNA Methylation Score Development for In utero Exposure to Paternal Smoking Using a Supervised Machine Learning Approach

Authors: Cristy Stagnar, Nina Hubig, Diana Ivankovic

Abstract:

The epigenome is a compelling candidate for mediating long-term responses to environmental effects modifying disease risk. The main goal of this research is to develop a machine learning-based DNA methylation score, which will be valuable in delineating the unique contribution of paternal epigenetic modifications to the germline impacting childhood health outcomes. It will also be a useful tool in validating self-reports of nonsmoking and in adjusting epigenome-wide DNA methylation association studies for this early-life exposure. Using secondary data from two population-based methylation profiling studies, our DNA methylation score is based on CpG DNA methylation measurements from cord blood gathered from children whose fathers smoked pre- and peri-conceptually. Each child’s mother and father fell into one of three class labels in the accompanying questionnaires -never smoker, former smoker, or current smoker. By applying different machine learning algorithms to the accessible resource for integrated epigenomic studies (ARIES) sub-study of the Avon longitudinal study of parents and children (ALSPAC) data set, which we used for training and testing of our model, the best-performing algorithm for classifying the father smoker and mother never smoker was selected based on Cohen’s κ. Error in the model was identified and optimized. The final DNA methylation score was further tested and validated in an independent data set. This resulted in a linear combination of methylation values of selected probes via a logistic link function that accurately classified each group and contributed the most towards classification. The result is a unique, robust DNA methylation score which combines information on DNA methylation and early life exposure of offspring to paternal smoking during pregnancy and which may be used to examine the paternal contribution to offspring health outcomes.

Keywords: epigenome, health outcomes, paternal preconception environmental exposures, supervised machine learning

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2246 Vulnerability Assessment of Healthcare Interdependent Critical Infrastructure Coloured Petri Net Model

Authors: N. Nivedita, S. Durbha

Abstract:

Critical Infrastructure (CI) consists of services and technological networks such as healthcare, transport, water supply, electricity supply, information technology etc. These systems are necessary for the well-being and to maintain effective functioning of society. Critical Infrastructures can be represented as nodes in a network where they are connected through a set of links depicting the logical relationship among them; these nodes are interdependent on each other and interact with each at other at various levels, such that the state of each infrastructure influences or is correlated to the state of another. Disruption in the service of one infrastructure nodes of the network during a disaster would lead to cascading and escalating disruptions across other infrastructures nodes in the network. The operation of Healthcare Infrastructure is one such Critical Infrastructure that depends upon a complex interdependent network of other Critical Infrastructure, and during disasters it is very vital for the Healthcare Infrastructure to be protected, accessible and prepared for a mass casualty. To reduce the consequences of a disaster on the Critical Infrastructure and to ensure a resilient Critical Health Infrastructure network, knowledge, understanding, modeling, and analyzing the inter-dependencies between the infrastructures is required. The paper would present inter-dependencies related to Healthcare Critical Infrastructure based on Hierarchical Coloured Petri Nets modeling approach, given a flood scenario as the disaster which would disrupt the infrastructure nodes. The model properties are being analyzed for the various state changes which occur when there is a disruption or damage to any of the Critical Infrastructure. The failure probabilities for the failure risk of interconnected systems are calculated by deriving a reachability graph, which is later mapped to a Markov chain. By analytically solving and analyzing the Markov chain, the overall vulnerability of the Healthcare CI HCPN model is demonstrated. The entire model would be integrated with Geographic information-based decision support system to visualize the dynamic behavior of the interdependency of the Healthcare and related CI network in a geographically based environment.

Keywords: critical infrastructure interdependency, hierarchical coloured petrinet, healthcare critical infrastructure, Petri Nets, Markov chain

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2245 Equality in Higher Education: A Library and Learning Collaborative Project to Support Teachers

Authors: Ika Jorum

Abstract:

The aim of this collaborative project was to develop library support that contributes in a long-term way to a technical university’s work on increased equality in education. The background was an assessment made by the Higher Education Authority that showed the need for improvement regarding equality in several programs at the university. The university’s Vice President for equality and Vice President for sustainability announced funds for projects that supported the improvement of equality in education. The library was granted funding for a one-year project that aimed both to support teachers in order to embed equality in education and to support the library staff and improve the organization’s own work. The part of the project that was directed to teachers was performed as activities in different areas and forms, such as acquisition and collections, teaching, exhibitions and book discussions. Besides the activities and support that was offered to teachers, the education team had journal clubs in order to develop and embed equality in their own teaching. The part that was directed to library staff and management was performed as workshops in collaboration with Equality Office in order to identify areas where the library could make improvements on work with equality and inclusion. The expectation was that the activities would be well attended since the project team had got indications that the content would be relevant. The outcome of this project was that some activities turned out to be more attended than others and what is expected to be found relevant, for example, a workshop on information searching from a gender and equality perspective for teachers, might still not attract participants. On the other hand, Ph.D. students and students participated in the book discussions and wanted them to continue after the project had ended. Results will be shared both on what was successful and what was challenging. Some reflections will be given on what can be done to attract participants to activities in the area of gender equality that is most likely relevant for the expected attendants and how results from a project on gender equality can be integrated into an organization’s daily work.

Keywords: equality, higher education, critical information literacy, collaboration

Procedia PDF Downloads 49
2244 Challenges of Management of Subaortic Membrane in a Young Adult Patient: A Case Review and Literature Review

Authors: Talal Asif, Maya Kosinska, Lucas Georger, Krish Sardesai, Muhammad Shah Miran

Abstract:

This article presents a case review and literature review focused on the challenges of managing subaortic membranes (SAM) in young adult patients with mild aortic regurgitation (AR) or aortic stenosis (AS). The study aims to discuss the diagnosis of SAM, imaging studies used for assessment, management strategies in young patients, the risk of valvular damage, and the controversy surrounding prophylactic resection in mild AR. The management of SAM in adults poses challenges due to limited treatment options and potential complications, necessitating further investigation into the progression of AS and AR in asymptomatic SAM patients. The case presentation describes a 40-year-old male with muscular dystrophy who presented with symptoms and was diagnosed with SAM. Various imaging techniques, including CT chest, transthoracic echocardiogram (TTE), and transesophageal echocardiogram (TEE), were used to confirm the presence and severity of SAM. Based on the patient's clinical profile and the absence of surgical indications, medical therapy was initiated, and regular outpatient follow-up was recommended to monitor disease progression. The discussion highlights the challenges in diagnosing SAM, the importance of imaging studies, and the potential complications associated with SAM in young patients. The article also explores the management options for SAM, emphasizing surgical resection as the definitive treatment while acknowledging the limited success rates of alternative approaches. Close monitoring and prompt intervention for complications are crucial in the management of SAM. The concluding statement emphasizes the need for further research to explore alternative treatments for SAM in young patients.

Keywords: subaortic membrane, management, case report, literature review, aortic regurgitation, aortic stenosis, left ventricular outflow obstruction, guidelines, heart failure

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2243 Identification of Ideal Plain Sufu (Fermented Soybean Curds) Based on Ideal Profile Method and Assessment of the Consistency of Ideal Profiles Obtained from Consumers

Authors: Yan Ping Chen, Hau Yin Chung

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The Ideal Profile Method (IPM) is a newly developed descriptive sensory analysis conducted by consumers without previous training. To perform this test, both the perceived and the ideal intensities from the judgements of consumers on products’ attributes, as well as their hedonic ratings were collected for formulating an ideal product (the most liked one). In addition, Ideal Profile Analysis (IPA) was conducted to check the consistency of the ideal data at both the panel and consumer levels. In this test, 12 commercial plain sufus bought from Hong Kong local market were tested by 113 consumers according to the IPM, and rated on 22 attributes. Principal component analysis was used to profile the perceived and the ideal spaces of tested products. The consistency of ideal data was then checked by IPA. The result showed that most consumers shared a common ideal. It was observed that the sensory product space and the ideal product space were structurally similar. Their first dimensions all opposed products with intense fermented related aroma to products with less fermented related aroma. And the predicted ideal profile (the estimated liking score around 7.0 in a 9.0-point scale) got higher hedonic score than the tested products (the average liking score around 6.0 in a 9.0-point scale). For the majority of consumers (95.2%), the stated ideal product considered as a potential ideal through checking the R2 coefficient value. Among all the tested products, sample-6 was the most popular one with consumer liking percentage around 30%. This product with less fermented and moldy flavour but easier to melt in mouth texture possessed close sensory profile according to the ideal product. This experiment validated that data from untrained consumers could be guided as useful information. Appreciated sensory characteristics could be served as reference in the optimization of the commercial plain sufu.

Keywords: ideal profile method, product development, sensory evaluation, sufu (fermented soybean curd)

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2242 GIS-Based Identification of Overloaded Distribution Transformers and Calculation of Technical Electric Power Losses

Authors: Awais Ahmed, Javed Iqbal

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Pakistan has been for many years facing extreme challenges in energy deficit due to the shortage of power generation compared to increasing demand. A part of this energy deficit is also contributed by the power lost in transmission and distribution network. Unfortunately, distribution companies are not equipped with modern technologies and methods to identify and eliminate these losses. According to estimate, total energy lost in early 2000 was between 20 to 26 percent. To address this issue the present research study was designed with the objectives of developing a standalone GIS application for distribution companies having the capability of loss calculation as well as identification of overloaded transformers. For this purpose, Hilal Road feeder in Faisalabad Electric Supply Company (FESCO) was selected as study area. An extensive GPS survey was conducted to identify each consumer, linking it to the secondary pole of the transformer, geo-referencing equipment and documenting conductor sizes. To identify overloaded transformer, accumulative kWH reading of consumer on transformer was compared with threshold kWH. Technical losses of 11kV and 220V lines were calculated using the data from substation and resistance of the network calculated from the geo-database. To automate the process a standalone GIS application was developed using ArcObjects with engineering analysis capabilities. The application uses GIS database developed for 11kV and 220V lines to display and query spatial data and present results in the form of graphs. The result shows that about 14% of the technical loss on both high tension (HT) and low tension (LT) network while about 4 out of 15 general duty transformers were found overloaded. The study shows that GIS can be a very effective tool for distribution companies in management and planning of their distribution network.

Keywords: geographical information system, GIS, power distribution, distribution transformers, technical losses, GPS, SDSS, spatial decision support system

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2241 Multilayered Assembly of Gelatin on Nanofibrous Matrix for 3-D Cell Cultivation

Authors: Ji Un Shin, Wei Mao, Hyuk Sang Yoo

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Electrospinning is a versatile tool for fabricating nano-structured polymeric materials. Gelatin hydrogels are considered to be a good material for cell cultivation because of high water swellability as well as good biocompatibility. Three-dimensional (3-D) cell cultivation is a desirable method of cell cultivation for preparing tissues and organs because cell-to-cell interactions or cell-to-matrix interactions can be much enhanced through this approach. For this reason, hydrogels were widely employed as tissue scaffolds because they can support cultivating cells and tissue in multi-dimensions. Major disadvantages of hydrogel-based cell cultivation include low mechanical properties, lack of topography, which should be enhanced for successful tissue engineering. Herein we surface-immobilized gelatin on the surface of nanofibrous matrix for 3-D cell cultivation in topographical cues added environments. Electrospun nanofibers were electrospun with injection of poly(caprolactone) through a single nozzle syringe. Electrospun meshes were then chopped up with a high speed grinder to fine powders. This was hydrolyzed in optimized concentration of sodium hydroxide solution from 1 to 6 hours and harvested by centrifugation. The freeze-dried powders were examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) for revealing the morphology and fibrilar shaped with a length of ca. 20um was observed. This was subsequently immersed in gelatin solution for surface-coating of gelatin, where the process repeated up to 10 times for obtaining desirable coating of gelatin on the surface. Gelatin-coated nanofibrils showed high waterswellability in comparison to the unmodified nanofibrils, and this enabled good dispersion properties of the modified nanofibrils in aqueous phase. The degree of water-swellability was increased as the coating numbers of gelatin increased, however, it did not any meaning result after 10 times of gelatin coating process. Thus, by adjusting the gelatin coating times, we could successfully control the degree of hydrophilicity and water-swellability of nanofibrils.

Keywords: nano, fiber, cell, tissue

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2240 Influence of Nutritional and Health Education of Families and Communities on the School-Age Children for the Attainment of Universal Basic Education Goals in the Rural Riverine Areas of Ogun State, Nigeria

Authors: Folasade R. Sulaiman

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Pupils’ health and nutrition are basically important to their schooling. The preponderance of avoidable deaths among children in Africa (WHO, 2000) may not be unconnected with the nutritional and health education status of families and communities that have their children as school clients. This study adopted a descriptive survey design focusing on the assessment of the level of nutritional and health education of families and community members in the rural riverine areas of Ogun State. Two research questions were raised. The Nutritional and Health Education of Families and Communities Inventory (NHEFCI) was used to collect data from 250 rural child-bearing aged women, and 0.73 test-retest reliability coefficient was established to determine the strength of the instrument. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics of frequency counts, percentages and mean in accordance with research questions raised in the study. The findings revealed amongst others: that 65% of the respondents had low level of nutritional and health education among the families and community members; while 72% had low level of awareness of the possible influence of nutritional and health education on the learning outcomes of the children. Based on the findings, it was recommended among others that government should intensify efforts on sensitization, mass literacy campaign etc.; also improve upon the already existing School Feeding Programme in Nigerian primary schools to provide at least one balanced diet for children while in school; community health workers, social workers, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO) should collaborate with international Organizations like UNICEF, UNESCO, WHO etc. to organize sensitization programmes for members of the rural riverine communities on the importance of meeting the health and nutritional needs of their children in order to attain their educational potentials.

Keywords: nutritional and health education, learning capacities, school-age children, universal basic education, rural riverine areas

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2239 Technology Roadmapping in Defense Industry

Authors: Sevgi Özlem Bulu, Arif Furkan Mendi, Tolga Erol, İzzet Gökhan Özbilgin

Abstract:

The rapid progress of technology in today's competitive conditions has also accelerated companies' technology development activities. As a result, companies are paying more attention to R&D studies and are beginning to allocate a larger share to R&D projects. A more systematic, comprehensive, target-oriented implementation of R&D studies is crucial for the company to achieve successful results. As a consequence, Technology Roadmap (TRM) is gaining importance as a management tool. It has critical prospects for achieving medium and long term success as it contains decisions about past business, future plans, technological infrastructure. When studies on TRM are examined, projects to be placed on the roadmap are selected by many different methods. Generally preferred methods are based on multi-criteria decision making methods. Management of selected projects becomes an important point after the selection phase of the projects. At this stage, TRM are used. TRM can be created in many different ways so that each institution can prepare its own Technology Roadmap according to their strategic plan. Depending on the intended use, there can be TRM with different layers at different sizes. In the evaluation phase of the R&D projects and in the creation of the TRM, HAVELSAN, Turkey's largest defense company in the software field, carries out this process with great care and diligence. At the beginning, suggested R&D projects are evaluated by the Technology Management Board (TMB) of HAVELSAN in accordance with the company's resources, objectives, and targets. These projects are presented to the TMB periodically for evaluation within the framework of certain criteria by board members. After the necessary steps have been passed, the approved projects are added to the time-based TRM, which is composed of four layers as market, product, project and technology. The use of a four-layered roadmap provides a clearer understanding and visualization of company strategy and objectives. This study demonstrates the benefits of using TRM, four-layered Technology Roadmapping and the possibilities for the institutions in the defense industry.

Keywords: technology roadmap, research and development project, project selection, research development in defense industry

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2238 The Effects of Cardiovascular Risk on Age-Related Cognitive Decline in Healthy Older Adults

Authors: A. Badran, M. Hollocks, H. Markus

Abstract:

Background: Common risk factors for cardiovascular disease are associated with age-related cognitive decline. There has been much interest in treating modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in the hope of reducing cognitive decline. However, there is currently no validated neuropsychological test to assess the subclinical cognitive effects of vascular risk. The Brief Memory and Executive Test (BMET) is a clinical screening tool, which was originally designed to be sensitive and specific to Vascular Cognitive Impairment (VCI), an impairment characterised by decline in frontally-mediated cognitive functions (e.g. Executive Function and Processing Speed). Objective: To cross-sectionally assess the validity of the BMET as a measure of the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in an otherwise healthy elderly cohort. Methods: Data from 346 participants (57 ± 10 years) without major neurological or psychiatric disorders were included in this study, gathered as part of a previous multicentre validation study for the BMET. Framingham Vascular Age was used as a surrogate measure of vascular risk, incorporating several established risk factors. Principal Components Analysis of the subtests was used to produce common constructs: an index for Memory and another for Executive Function/Processing Speed. Univariate General Linear models were used to relate Vascular Age to performance on Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory subtests of the BMET, adjusting for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity. Results: Adverse vascular risk was associated with poorer performance on both the Memory and Executive Function/Processing Speed indices, adjusted for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity (p=0.011 and p<0.001, respectively). Conclusions: Performance on the BMET reflects the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in age-related cognitive decline. Vascular risk is associated with decline in both Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory groups of subtests. Future studies are needed to explore whether treating vascular risk factors can effectively reduce age-related cognitive decline.

Keywords: age-related cognitive decline, vascular cognitive impairment, subclinical cerebrovascular disease, cognitive aging

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2237 Assessment of Groundwater Chemistry and Quality Characteristics in an Alluvial Aquifer and a Single Plane Fractured-Rock Aquifer in Bloemfontein, South Africa

Authors: Modreck Gomo

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The evolution of groundwater chemistry and its quality is largely controlled by hydrogeochemical processes and their understanding is therefore important for groundwater quality assessments and protection of the water resources. A study was conducted in Bloemfontein town of South Africa to assess and compare the groundwater chemistry and quality characteristics in an alluvial aquifer and single-plane fractured-rock aquifers. 9 groundwater samples were collected from monitoring boreholes drilled into the two aquifer systems during a once-off sampling exercise. Samples were collected through low-flow purging technique and analysed for major ions and trace elements. In order to describe the hydrochemical facies and identify dominant hydrogeochemical processes, the groundwater chemistry data are interpreted using stiff diagrams and principal component analysis (PCA), as complimentary tools. The fitness of the groundwater quality for domestic and irrigation uses is also assessed. Results show that the alluvial aquifer is characterised by a Na-HCO3 hydrochemical facie while fractured-rock aquifer has a Ca-HCO3 facie. The groundwater in both aquifers originally evolved from the dissolution of calcite rocks that are common on land surface environments. However the groundwater in the alluvial aquifer further goes through another evolution as driven by cation exchange process in which Na in the sediments exchanges with Ca2+ in the Ca-HCO3 hydrochemical type to result in the Na-HCO3 hydrochemical type. Despite the difference in the hydrogeochemical processes between the alluvial aquifer and single-plane fractured-rock aquifer, this did not influence the groundwater quality. The groundwater in the two aquifers is very hard as influenced by the elevated magnesium and calcium ions that evolve from dissolution of carbonate minerals which typically occurs in surface environments. Based on total dissolved levels (600-900 mg/L), groundwater quality of the two aquifer systems is classified to be of fair quality. The negative potential impacts of the groundwater quality for domestic uses are highlighted.

Keywords: alluvial aquifer, fractured-rock aquifer, groundwater quality, hydrogeochemical processes

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2236 Assessment the Infiltration of the Wastewater Ponds and Its Impact on the Water Quality of Pleistocene Aquifer at El Sadat City Using 2-D Electrical Resistivity Tomography and Water Chemistry

Authors: Abeer A. Kenawy, Usama Massoud, El-Said A. Ragab, Heba M. El-Kosery

Abstract:

2-D Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and hydrochemical study have been conducted at El Sadat industrial city. The study aims to investigate the area around the wastewater ponds to determine the possibility of water percolation from the wastewater ponds to the Pleistocene aquifer and to inspect the effect of this seepage on the groundwater chemistry. Pleistocene aquifer is the main groundwater reservoir in this area, where El Sadat city and its vicinities depend totally on this aquifer for water supplies needed for drinking, agricultural, and industrial activities. In this concern, seven ERT profiles were measured around the wastewater ponds. Besides, 10 water samples were collected from the ponds and the nearby groundwater wells. The water samples have been chemically analyzed for major cations, anions, nutrients, and heavy elements. Also, the physical parameters (pH, Alkalinity, EC, TDS) of the water samples were measured. Inspection of the ERT sections shows that they exhibit lower resistivity values towards the water ponds and higher values in opposite sides. In addition, the water table was detected at shallower depths at the same sides of lower resistivity. This could indicate a wastewater infiltration to the groundwater aquifer near the oxidation ponds. Correlation of the physical parameters and ionic concentrations of the wastewater samples with those of the groundwater samples indicates that; the ionic levels are randomly varying and no specific trend could be obtained. In addition, the wastewater samples shows some ionic levels lower than those detected in other groundwater samples. Besides, the nitrate level is higher in samples taken from the cultivated land than the wastewater samples due to the over using of nitrogen fertilizers. Then, we can say that the infiltrated water from wastewater ponds are not the main controller of the groundwater chemistry in this area, but rather the variable ionic concentrations could be attributed to local, natural, and anthropogenic processes.

Keywords: El Sadat city, ERT, hydrochemistry, percolation, wastewater ponds

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2235 Quality Assessment of Hollow Sandcrete Blocks in Minna, Nigeria

Authors: M. Abdullahi, S. Sadiku, Bashar S. Mohammed, J. I. Aguwa

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The properties of hollow sandcrete blocks produced in Minna, Nigeria are presented. Sandcrete block is made of cement, water and sand bound together in certain mix proportions. For the purpose of this work, fifty (50) commercial sandcrete block industries were visited in Minna, Nigeria to obtain block samples and aggregates used for the manufacture, and to also take inventory of the mix composition and the production process. Sieve analysis tests were conduction on the soil sample from various block industries to ascertain their quality to be used for block making. The mix ratios were also investigated. Five (5) nine inches (9’’ or 225mm) blocks were obtained from each block industry and tested for dimensional compliance and compressive strength. The result of test shows that the grading of the sand falls within the limit required by BS 882: 1990. The sand particles generally satisfy the grading requirement of overall grading and also fall in at least one of the classification of coarse grading, medium grading or fine grading. This clearly indicates that the quality of the aggregates used for the production of sandcrete blocks in Minna, Nigeria are of good quality in terms of grading and workable mix can easily be achieved to obtain high quality product. Physical examinations of the block sizes show slight deviation from the standard requirement in NIS 87:2000. Compressive strength of hollow sandcrete blocks in range of 0.12 N/mm2 to 0.54 N/mm2 was obtained which is below the recommendable value of 3.45 N/mm2 for load bearing hollow sandcrete blocks. This indicates that these blocks are below the standard for load-bearing sandcrete blocks and cannot be used as load bearing walling units. The mix composition also indicated low cement content resulting in low compressive strength. Most of the commercial block industries visited do not take curing very serious. Water were only sprinkled ones or twice before the blocks were stacked and made readily available for sale. It is recommended that a mix ratio of 1:4 to 1:6 should be used for the production of sandcrete blocks and proper curing practice should be adhered to. Blocks should also be cured for 14 days before making them available for consumers.

Keywords: compressive strength, dimensions, mix proportions, sandcrete blocks

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2234 Heat-Induced Uncertainty of Industrial Computed Tomography Measuring a Stainless Steel Cylinder

Authors: Verena M. Moock, Darien E. Arce Chávez, Mariana M. Espejel González, Leopoldo Ruíz-Huerta, Crescencio García-Segundo

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Uncertainty analysis in industrial computed tomography is commonly related to metrological trace tools, which offer precision measurements of external part features. Unfortunately, there is no such reference tool for internal measurements to profit from the unique imaging potential of X-rays. Uncertainty approximations for computed tomography are still based on general aspects of the industrial machine and do not adapt to acquisition parameters or part characteristics. The present study investigates the impact of the acquisition time on the dimensional uncertainty measuring a stainless steel cylinder with a circular tomography scan. The authors develop the figure difference method for X-ray radiography to evaluate the volumetric differences introduced within the projected absorption maps of the metal workpiece. The dimensional uncertainty is dominantly influenced by photon energy dissipated as heat causing the thermal expansion of the metal, as monitored by an infrared camera within the industrial tomograph. With the proposed methodology, we are able to show evolving temperature differences throughout the tomography acquisition. This is an early study showing that the number of projections in computer tomography induces dimensional error due to energy absorption. The error magnitude would depend on the thermal properties of the sample and the acquisition parameters by placing apparent non-uniform unwanted volumetric expansion. We introduce infrared imaging for the experimental display of metrological uncertainty in a particular metal part of symmetric geometry. We assess that the current results are of fundamental value to reach the balance between the number of projections and uncertainty tolerance when performing analysis with X-ray dimensional exploration in precision measurements with industrial tomography.

Keywords: computed tomography, digital metrology, infrared imaging, thermal expansion

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2233 Nursing Experience in Improving Physical and Mental Well-Being of a Patient with Premature Menopause Osteoporosis and Sarcopenia in Nursing-Led Multi-Discipline Care

Authors: Huang Chiung Chiu

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This article is about the nursing experience of assisting an outpatient with premature menopause, osteoporosis and sarcopenia through a multi-discipline care model. The nursing period is from September 22nd, 2020, to December 7th, 2020, collecting data through interviews with the patient, observation, and physical assessment. It was found that the main health problems were insufficient nutrition, less physical need, insomnia, and potentially dangerous falls. As an outpatient nurse, the author observed that in recent years, the age group of women with premature menopause, osteoporosis and sarcopenia had shifted downward. Integrated multi-disciplinary interventions were provided upon the initial diagnosis of osteoporosis and sarcopenia. Under the outpatient care setting, the collaborative team works between the doctors, nutritionists, osteoporosis educators, rehabilitates, physical therapists and other specialized teams were applied to provide individualized, integrated multi-disciplinary care. Through empathy and the establishment of attentive care, companionship and trust, we discussed care plans and treatment guidelines with the case, providing accurate, complete disease information and feedback education to strengthen the patient’s knowledge and motivation for exercise. Nursing guidance regarding the dietary nutrition and adjustment of daily routine was provided to increase the self-care ability, improve the health problems of muscle weakness and insomnia, and prevent falls. For patients with postmenopausal osteoporosis and sarcopenia, it is recommended that the nurses coordinate the multi-discipline integrated care model, adjust patients’ lifestyle and diet, and establish a regular exercise plan so that the cases can be evaluated holistically to improve the quality of care and physical and mental comfort.

Keywords: multi-discipline care model, premature menopause, osteoporosis, sarcopenia, insomnia

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2232 Rapid Formation of Ortho-Boronoimines and Derivatives for Reversible and Dynamic Bioconjugation Under Physiological Conditions

Authors: Nicholas C. Rose, Christopher D. Spicer

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The regeneration of damaged or diseased tissues would provide an invaluable therapeutic tool in biological research and medicine. Cells must be provided with a number of different biochemical signals in order to form mature tissue through complex signaling networks that are difficult to recreate in synthetic materials. The ability to attach and detach bioactive proteins from material in an iterative and dynamic manner would therefore present a powerful way to mimic natural biochemical signaling cascades for tissue growth. We propose to reversibly attach these bioactive proteins using ortho-boronoimine (oBI) linkages and related derivatives formed by the reaction of an ortho-boronobenzaldehyde with a nucleophilic amine derivative. To enable the use of oBIs for biomaterial modification, we have studied binding and cleavage processes with precise detail in the context of small molecule models. A panel of oBI complexes has been synthesized and screened using a novel Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) assay, using a cyanine dye FRET pair (Cy3 and Cy5), to identify the most reactive boron-aldehyde/amine nucleophile pairs. Upon conjugation of the dyes, FRET occurs under Cy3 excitation and the resultant ratio of Cy3:Cy5 emission directly correlates to conversion. Reaction kinetics and equilibria can be accurately quantified for reactive pairs, with dissociation constants of oBI derivatives in water (KD) found to span 9-orders of magnitude (10⁻²-10⁻¹¹ M). These studies have provided us with a better understanding of oBI linkages that we hope to exploit to reversibly attach bioconjugates to materials. The long-term aim of the project is to develop a modular biomaterial platform that can be used to help combat chronic diseases such as osteoarthritis, heart disease, and chronic wounds by providing cells with potent biological stimuli for tissue engineering.

Keywords: dynamic, bioconjugation, bornoimine, rapid, physiological

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2231 Investigation of Ductile Failure Mechanisms in SA508 Grade 3 Steel via X-Ray Computed Tomography and Fractography Analysis

Authors: Suleyman Karabal, Timothy L. Burnett, Egemen Avcu, Andrew H. Sherry, Philip J. Withers

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SA508 Grade 3 steel is widely used in the construction of nuclear pressure vessels, where its fracture toughness plays a critical role in ensuring operational safety and reliability. Understanding the ductile failure mechanisms in this steel grade is crucial for designing robust pressure vessels that can withstand severe nuclear environment conditions. In the present study, round bar specimens of SA508 Grade 3 steel with four distinct notch geometries were subjected to tensile loading while capturing continuous 2D images at 5-second intervals in order to monitor any alterations in their geometries to construct true stress-strain curves of the specimens. 3D reconstructions of X-ray computed tomography (CT) images at high-resolution (a spatial resolution of 0.82 μm) allowed for a comprehensive assessment of the influences of second-phase particles (i.e., manganese sulfide inclusions and cementite particles) on ductile failure initiation as a function of applied plastic strain. Additionally, based on 2D and 3D images, plasticity modeling was executed, and the results were compared to experimental data. A specific ‘two-parameter criterion’ was established and calibrated based on the correlation between stress triaxiality and equivalent plastic strain at failure initiation. The proposed criterion demonstrated substantial agreement with the experimental results, thus enhancing our knowledge of ductile fracture behavior in this steel grade. The implementation of X-ray CT and fractography analysis provided new insights into the diverse roles played by different populations of second-phase particles in fracture initiation under varying stress triaxiality conditions.

Keywords: ductile fracture, two-parameter criterion, x-ray computed tomography, stress triaxiality

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2230 The Moderating Role of Perceived University Environment in the Formation of Entrepreneurial Intention among Creative Industries Students

Authors: Patrick Ebong Ebewo

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The trend of high unemployment levels globally is a growing concern, which suggests that university students especially those studying the creative industries are most likely to face unemployment upon completion of their studies. Therefore the effort of university in fostering entrepreneurial knowledge is equally important to the development of student’s soft skill. The purpose of this paper is to assess the significance of perceived university environment and perceived educational support that influencing University students’ intention in starting their own business in the future. Thus, attempting to answer the question 'How does perceived university environment affect students’ attitude towards entrepreneurship as a career option, perceived entrepreneurial abilities, subjective norm and entrepreneurial intentions?' The study is based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour model adapted from previous studies and empirically tested on graduates at the Tshwane University of Technology. A sample of 150 graduates from the Arts and Design graduates took part in the study and data collected were analysed using structural equation modelling (SEM). Our findings seem to suggest the indirect impact of perceived university environment on entrepreneurial intention through perceived environment support and perceived entrepreneurial abilities. Thus, any increase in perceived university environment might influence students to become entrepreneurs. Based on these results, it is recommended that: (a) Tshwane University of Technology and other universities of technology should establish an ‘Entrepreneurship Internship Programme’ as a tool for stimulated work integrated learning. Post-graduation intervention could be implemented by the development of a ‘Graduate Entrepreneurship Program’ which should be embedded in the Bachelor of Technology (B-Tech now Advance Diploma) and Postgraduate courses; (b) Policymakers should consider the development of a coherent national policy framework that addresses entrepreneurship for the Arts/creative industries sector. This would create the enabling environment for the evolution of Higher Education Institutions from merely Teaching, Learning & Research to becoming drivers for creative entrepreneurship.

Keywords: business venture, entrepreneurship education, entrepreneurial intent, university environment

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2229 A Comprehensive Methodology for Voice Segmentation of Large Sets of Speech Files Recorded in Naturalistic Environments

Authors: Ana Londral, Burcu Demiray, Marcus Cheetham

Abstract:

Speech recording is a methodology used in many different studies related to cognitive and behaviour research. Modern advances in digital equipment brought the possibility of continuously recording hours of speech in naturalistic environments and building rich sets of sound files. Speech analysis can then extract from these files multiple features for different scopes of research in Language and Communication. However, tools for analysing a large set of sound files and automatically extract relevant features from these files are often inaccessible to researchers that are not familiar with programming languages. Manual analysis is a common alternative, with a high time and efficiency cost. In the analysis of long sound files, the first step is the voice segmentation, i.e. to detect and label segments containing speech. We present a comprehensive methodology aiming to support researchers on voice segmentation, as the first step for data analysis of a big set of sound files. Praat, an open source software, is suggested as a tool to run a voice detection algorithm, label segments and files and extract other quantitative features on a structure of folders containing a large number of sound files. We present the validation of our methodology with a set of 5000 sound files that were collected in the daily life of a group of voluntary participants with age over 65. A smartphone device was used to collect sound using the Electronically Activated Recorder (EAR): an app programmed to record 30-second sound samples that were randomly distributed throughout the day. Results demonstrated that automatic segmentation and labelling of files containing speech segments was 74% faster when compared to a manual analysis performed with two independent coders. Furthermore, the methodology presented allows manual adjustments of voiced segments with visualisation of the sound signal and the automatic extraction of quantitative information on speech. In conclusion, we propose a comprehensive methodology for voice segmentation, to be used by researchers that have to work with large sets of sound files and are not familiar with programming tools.

Keywords: automatic speech analysis, behavior analysis, naturalistic environments, voice segmentation

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2228 The Conceptualization of Patient-Centered Care in Latin America: A Scoping Review

Authors: Anne Klimesch, Alejandra Martinez, Martin HäRter, Isabelle Scholl, Paulina Bravo

Abstract:

Patient-centered care (PCC) is a key principle of high-quality healthcare. In Latin America, research on and promotion of PCC have taken place in the past. However, thorough implementation of PCC in practice is still missing. In Germany, an integrative model of patient-centeredness has been developed by synthesis of diverse concepts of PCC. The model could serve as a point of reference for further research on the implementation of PCC. However, it is predominantly based on research from Europe and North America. This scoping review, therefore, aims to accumulate research on PCC in Latin America in the past 15 years and analyse how PCC has been conceptualized. The resulting overview of PCC in Latin America will be a foundation for a subsequent study aiming at the adaptation of the integrative model of patient-centeredness to the Latin American health care context. Scientific databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Scopus, Web of Science, SCIELO, Redalyc.) will be searched, and reference and citation tracking will be performed. Studies will be included if they were carried out in Latin America, investigated PCC in any clinical and community setting (public and private), and were published in English, Spanish, French, or Portuguese since 2006. Furthermore, any theoretical framework or conceptual model to guide how PCC is conceptualized in Latin America will be included. Two reviewers will be responsible for the identification of articles, screening of records, and full-text assessment. The results of the scoping review will be used in the development of a mixed-methods study with the aim to understand the needs for PCC, as well as barriers and facilitators in Latin America. Based on the outcomes, the integrative model of PCC will be translated to Spanish and adapted to the Latin American context. The integrative model will enable the dissemination of the concept of PCC in Latin America and will provide a common ground for further research on the topic. The project will thereby make an important contribution to an evidence-based implementation of PCC in Latin America.

Keywords: conceptual framework, integrative model of PCC, Latin America, patient-centered care

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2227 TiO₂ Deactivation Process during Photocatalytic Ethanol Degradation in the Gas Phase

Authors: W. El-Alami, J. Araña, O. González Díaz, J. M. Doña Rodríguez

Abstract:

The efficiency of the semiconductor TiO₂ needs to be improved to be an effective tool for pollutant removal. To improve the efficiency of this semiconductor, it is necessary to deepen the knowledge of the processes that take place on its surface. In this sense, the deactivation of the catalyst is one of the aspects considered relevant. In order to study this point, the processes of deactivation of TiO₂ during the gas phase degradation of ethanol have been studied. For this, catalysts with only the anatase phase (SA and PC100) and catalysts with anatase and rutile phases (P25 and P90) have been selected. In order to force the deactivation processes, different cycles have been performed, adding ethanol gas but avoiding the degradation of acetates to determine their effect on the process. The surface concentration of fluorine on the catalysts was semi-quantitatively determined by EDAX analysis. The photocatalytic experiments were done with four commercial catalysts (P25, SA, P90, and PC100) and the two fluoride catalysts indicated above. The interaction and photocatalytic degradation of ethanol were followed by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). EDAX analysis has revealed the presence of sodium on the surface of fluorinated catalysts. In FTIR studies, it has been observed that the acetates adsorbed on the anatase phase in P25 and P90 give rise to electron transfer to surface traps that modify the electronic states of the semiconductor. These deactivation studies have also been carried out with fluorinated P25 and SA catalysts (F-P25 and F-SA) which have observed similar electron transfers but in the opposite direction during illumination. In these materials, it has been observed that the electrons present in the surface traps, as a consequence of the interaction Ti-F, react with the holes, causing a change in the electronic states of the semiconductor. In this way, deactivated states of these materials have been detected by different electron transfer routes. It has been identified that acetates produced from the degradation of ethanol in P25 and P90 are probably hydrated on the surface of the rutile phase. In the catalysts with only the anatase phase (SA and PC100), the deactivation is immediate if the acetates are not removed before adsorbing ethanol again. In F-P25 and F-SA has been observed that the acetates formed react with the sodium ions present on the surface and not with the Ti atoms because they are interacting with the fluorine.

Keywords: photocatalytic degradation, ethanol, TiO₂, deactivation process, F-P25

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2226 Indicators and Sustainability Dimensions of the Mediterranean Diet

Authors: Joana Margarida Bôto, Belmira Neto, Vera Miguéis, Manuela Meireles, Ada Rocha

Abstract:

The Mediterranean diet has been recognized as a sustainable model of living with benefits for the environment and human health. However, a complete assessment of its sustainability, encompassing all dimensions and aspects, to our best knowledge, has not yet been realized. This systematic literature review aimed to fill this gap by identifying and describing the indicators used to assess the sustainability of the Mediterranean diet, looking at several dimensions, and presenting the results from their application. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines methodology was used, and searches were conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and GreenFile. There were identified thirty-two articles evaluating the sustainability of the Mediterranean diet. The environmental impact was quantified in twenty-five of these studies, the nutritional quality was evaluated in seven studies, and the daily cost of the diet was assessed in twelve studies. A total of thirty-three indicators were identified and separated by four dimensions of sustainability, specifically, the environmental dimension (ten indicators, namely carbon, water, and ecological footprint), the nutritional dimension (eight indicators, namely Health score and Nutrient Rich Food Index), the economic dimension (one indicator, the dietary cost), the sociocultural dimension (six indicators – with no results). Only eight of the studies used combined indicators. The Mediterranean diet was considered in all articles as a sustainable dietary pattern with a lower impact than Western diets. The carbon footprint ranged between 0.9 and 6.88 kg CO₂/d per capita, the water footprint between 600 and 5280 m³/d per capita, and the ecological footprint between 2.8 and 53.42 m²/d per capita. The nutritional quality was high, obtaining 122 points using the Health score and 12.95 to 90.6 points using the Nutrient Rich Food Index. The cost of the Mediterranean diet did not significantly differ from other diets and varied between 3.33 and 14.42€/d per capita. A diverse approach to evaluating the sustainability of the Mediterranean diet was found.

Keywords: Mediterranean diet, sustainability, environmental indicators, nutritional indicators

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2225 Changing Patterns of Colorectal Cancer in Hail Region

Authors: Laila Salah Seada, Ashraf Ibrahim, Fawaz Al Rashid, Ihab Abdo, Hassan Kasim, Waleed Al Mansi, Saud Al Shabli

Abstract:

Background and Objectives: Colorectal carcinoma is increasing among both men and women worldwide. It has a multifactorial etiology including genetic factors, environmental factors and inflammatory conditions of the digestive tract. A clinicopathologic assessment of colorectal carcinoma in Hail region is done, considering any changing patterns in two 5-year periods from 2005-2009 (A) and from 2012 to 2017 (B). All data had been retrieved from histopathology files of King Khalid Hospital, Hail. Results: During period (A), 75 cases were diagnosed as colorectal carcinoma. Male patients comprised 56/75 (74.7%) of the study, with a mean age of 58.4 (36-97), while females were 19/75 (25.3%) with a mean age of 50.3(30-85) and the difference was significant (p = 0.05). M:F ratio was 2.9:1. Most common histological type was adenocarcioma in 68/75 (90.7%) patients mostly well differentiated in 44/68 (64.7%). Mucinous neoplasms comprised only 7/75 (9.3%) of cases and tended to have a higher stage (p = 0.04). During period (B), 115 cases were diagnosed with an increase of 53.3% in number of cases than period (A). Male to female ratio also decreased to 1.35:1, females being 44.83% more affected. Adenocarcinoma remained the prevalent type (93.9%), while mucinous type was still rare (5.2%). No distal metastases found at time of presentation. Localization of tumors was rectosigmoid in group (A) in 41.4%, which increased to 56.6% in group (B), with an increase of 15.2%. Iliocecal location also decreased from 8% to 3.5%, being 56.25% less. Other proximal areas of the colon were decreased by 25.75%, from 53.9% in group (A) to 40% in group (B). Conclusion: Colorectal carcinoma in Hail region has increased by 53.3% in the past 5 years, with more females being diagnosed. Localization has also shifted distally by 15.2%. These findings are different from Western world patterns which experienced a decrease in incidence and proximal shift of the colon cancer localization. This might be due to better diagnostic tools, population awareness of the disease, as well as changing of life style and/or food habits in the region.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, Hail Region, changing pattern, distal shift

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2224 Assessment of Dental Caries in Children of Age 6 and 7 Years Old in Albania

Authors: Mimoza Canga, Irene Malagnino, Ruzhdie Qafmolla, Vergjini Mulo, Gresa Baboci, Vito Antonio Malagnino

Abstract:

Background: Dental caries represents the most widespread pathology in childhood. The prevalence of dental caries varies with age, gender, socio economic status, geographical location, nutrition habits, and oral hygiene. Objective: The objective of the present longitudinal study is to show clearly the prevalence of dental caries in the children of age 6 and 7 years old in Vlore, Albania, in a two year time period with controls done every 6 months. Materials and methods: The present study was conducted on 530 children, with a controlled sample for a time period of 24 months from September 2019- September 2021. The children in the study had different economic and social backgrounds. The teeth controls were done by the dentists who work at the hospital of the city. The present study was conducted in accordance with Helsinki declaration. Permissions were obtained in written form, which allowed us to perform the observations. Parents had the right to withdraw their children at any time. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics 23.0. The significance level (α) was set at 0.05, whereas P-value and analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used to analyze the data. Results: The data of the present study showed that the age group of 6 years old had 139 or 52.3% of the children with dental caries and 127 or 47.7% of them had no dental caries, while at the age of 7 there were 184 or 69.7% of the children with dental caries problems in the permanent molars and 80 or 30.3% of them had no dental caries. In the present study, it was observed that there is a statistically significant association between age group and presence of caries. Children 7 years old had higher presence of dental caries (χ2 = 16.934 (df 1) p-value < 0.001). According to the present research, there is a statistically significant correlation between period of time and the presence of dental caries. Furthermore, in the actual research, it was established that in the time 18-24 months, the prevalence of dental caries was high (χ2=15,318 (df 1) p-value = 0.004). Conclusion: According to the results of the present study performed in Albania in a two year time period with controls done every 6 months, it is proved that the prevalence of dental caries was 17.4 percent higher among children 7 years old in comparison with the children 6 years old.

Keywords: age, children, dental caries, permanent molars

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2223 Performance of AquaCrop Model for Simulating Maize Growth and Yield Under Varying Sowing Dates in Shire Area, North Ethiopia

Authors: Teklay Tesfay, Gebreyesus Brhane Tesfahunegn, Abadi Berhane, Selemawit Girmay

Abstract:

Adjusting the proper sowing date of a crop at a particular location with a changing climate is an essential management option to maximize crop yield. However, determining the optimum sowing date for rainfed maize production through field experimentation requires repeated trials for many years in different weather conditions and crop management. To avoid such long-term experimentation to determine the optimum sowing date, crop models such as AquaCrop are useful. Therefore, the overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of AquaCrop model in simulating maize productivity under varying sowing dates. A field experiment was conducted for two consecutive cropping seasons by deploying four maize seed sowing dates in a randomized complete block design with three replications. Input data required to run this model are stored as climate, crop, soil, and management files in the AquaCrop database and adjusted through the user interface. Observed data from separate field experiments was used to calibrate and validate the model. AquaCrop model was validated for its performance in simulating the green canopy and aboveground biomass of maize for the varying sowing dates based on the calibrated parameters. Results of the present study showed that there was a good agreement (an overall R2 =, Ef= d= RMSE =) between measured and simulated values of the canopy cover and biomass yields. Considering the overall values of the statistical test indicators, the performance of the model to predict maize growth and biomass yield was successful, and so this is a valuable tool help for decision-making. Hence, this calibrated and validated model is suggested to use for determining optimum maize crop sowing date for similar climate and soil conditions to the study area, instead of conducting long-term experimentation.

Keywords: AquaCrop model, calibration, validation, simulation

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2222 Exploring Smartphone Applications for Enhancing Second Language Vocabulary Learning

Authors: Abdulmajeed Almansour

Abstract:

Learning a foreign language with the assistant of technological tools has become an interest of learners and educators. Increased use of smartphones among undergraduate students has made them popular for not only social communication but also for entertainment and educational purposes. Smartphones have provided remarkable advantages in language learning process. Learning vocabulary is an important part of learning a language. The use of smartphone applications for English vocabulary learning provides an opportunity for learners to improve vocabulary knowledge beyond the classroom wall anytime anywhere. Recently, various smartphone applications were created specifically for vocabulary learning. This paper aims to explore the use of smartphone application Memrise designed for vocabulary learning to enhance academic vocabulary among undergraduate students. It examines whether the use of a Memrise smartphone application designed course enhances the academic vocabulary learning among ESL learners. The research paradigm used in this paper followed a mixed research model combining quantitative and qualitative research. The study included two hundred undergraduate students randomly assigned to the experimental and controlled group during the first academic year at the Faculty of English Language, Imam University. The research instruments included an attitudinal questionnaire and an English vocabulary pre-test administered to students at the beginning of the semester whereas post-test and semi-structured interviews administered at the end of the semester. The findings of the attitudinal questionnaire revealed a positive attitude towards using smartphones in learning vocabulary. The post-test scores showed a significant difference in the experimental group performance. The results from the semi-structure interviews showed that there were positive attitudes towards Memrise smartphone application. The students found the application enjoyable, convenient and efficient learning tool. From the study, the use of the Memrise application is seen to have long-term and motivational benefits to students. For this reason, there is a need for further research to identify the long-term optimal effects of learning a language using smartphone applications.

Keywords: second language vocabulary learning, academic vocabulary, mobile learning technologies, smartphone applications

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2221 A Modified Open Posterior Approach for the Fixation of Posterior Cruciate Ligament Tibial Avulsion Fractures

Authors: Babak Mirzashahi, Arvin Najafi, Pejman Mansouri, Mahmoud Farzan

Abstract:

Background: The most effective treatment of posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) tears and the consequence of untreated PCL injuries remain controversial. Objectives: The aim of this study is to assess outcomes of fixation of tibial posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) avulsion fractures via a modified technique. Patients and Methods: From January, 2009 to March, 2012, there were 45 cases of PCL tibial avulsion fractures that were referred to our hospital and were managed through a modified open posterior approach. Fixation of Tibial PCL avulsion fractures were fixed by means of a lag screw and washer placed through our modified open posterior approach. Range of motion was begun on the first postoperative day. Clinical stability, range of motion, gastrocnemius muscle strength, radiographic investigation, and patient’s overall quality of life was analyzed at final follow up visit. Results: The average of overall musculoskeletal functional evaluation scores was 15 (range 3–35). All patients achieved union of their fracture and had clinically stable knees at the latest follow-up. The mean preoperative Lysholm score for 15 knees was 62 ± 8 (range, 50-75); the mean postoperative Lysholm score was 92± 7 (range, 75-101). A significant difference in Lysholm scores between preoperative and final follow-up evaluations was found (P < .05). At first-year follow-up, 42 (93%) patients revealed a difference of less than 10 mm in thigh circumference between their injured and healthy knees. Conclusions: The management of displaced large PCL avulsion fractures with placement of a cancellous lag screw with washer by means of the modified open posterior approach leads to satisfactory clinical, radiographic, and functional results and reduces the operation time and less blood loss. Level of evidence: IV.

Keywords: posterior cruciate ligament, tibial fracture, lysholm knee score, patient outcome assessment

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2220 Comparison of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Smoothing Methods

Authors: D. Sigirli

Abstract:

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a commonly used statistical tool for evaluating the diagnostic performance of screening and diagnostic test with continuous or ordinal scale results which aims to predict the presence or absence probability of a condition, usually a disease. When the test results were measured as numeric values, sensitivity and specificity can be computed across all possible threshold values which discriminate the subjects as diseased and non-diseased. There are infinite numbers of possible decision thresholds along the continuum of the test results. The ROC curve presents the trade-off between sensitivity and the 1-specificity as the threshold changes. The empirical ROC curve which is a non-parametric estimator of the ROC curve is robust and it represents data accurately. However, especially for small sample sizes, it has a problem of variability and as it is a step function there can be different false positive rates for a true positive rate value and vice versa. Besides, the estimated ROC curve being in a jagged form, since the true ROC curve is a smooth curve, it underestimates the true ROC curve. Since the true ROC curve is assumed to be smooth, several smoothing methods have been explored to smooth a ROC curve. These include using kernel estimates, using log-concave densities, to fit parameters for the specified density function to the data with the maximum-likelihood fitting of univariate distributions or to create a probability distribution by fitting the specified distribution to the data nd using smooth versions of the empirical distribution functions. In the present paper, we aimed to propose a smooth ROC curve estimation based on the boundary corrected kernel function and to compare the performances of ROC curve smoothing methods for the diagnostic test results coming from different distributions in different sample sizes. We performed simulation study to compare the performances of different methods for different scenarios with 1000 repetitions. It is seen that the performance of the proposed method was typically better than that of the empirical ROC curve and only slightly worse compared to the binormal model when in fact the underlying samples were generated from the normal distribution.

Keywords: empirical estimator, kernel function, smoothing, receiver operating characteristic curve

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2219 Tourism Oriented Planning Experience in the Historical City Center of Trabzon (Turkey) with Strategic Spatial Planning Approach: Evaluation of Approach and Process

Authors: Emrehan Ozcan, Dilek Beyazlı

Abstract:

The development of tourism depends on an accurate planning approach as well as on the right planning process. This dependency is also a key factor in ensuring sustainability of tourism. The types of tourism, social expectations, planning practice, the socio-economic and the cultural structure of the region are determinants of planning approaches for tourism development. The tourism plans prepared for the historic city centers are usually based on the revitalization of cultural and historical values. The preservation and development of the tourism potentials of the historic city centers are important for providing an economic contribution to the locality, creating livable solutions for local residents and also the sustainability of tourism. This research is about experiencing and discussing a planning approach that will provide tourism development based on historical and cultural values. Historical and cultural values in the historical city center of Trabzon -which has a settlement history of approximately 4000 years, is located on the Black Sea coast of Turkey- wear out over years and lose their tourism potential. A planning study has been experienced with strategic spatial planning approach for Trabzon, which has not done a tourism-oriented planning study until now. The stages of the planning process provided by strategic spatial planning approach are an assessment of the current situation; vision, strategies, and actions; action planning; designing and implementation of actions and monitoring-evaluation. In the discussion section, the advantages, planning process, methods and techniques of the approach are discussed for the possibilities and constraints in terms of tourism planning. In this context, it is aimed to put forth tourism planning process, stages, and implementation tools within the scope of strategic spatial planning approach by comparing approaches used in the tourism-oriented/priority planning of historical city centers. Suggestions on the position and effect of the preferred planning approach in the existing spatial planning practice are the outputs of the study.

Keywords: cultural heritage, tourism oriented planning, Trabzon, strategic spatial Planning

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2218 Modelling, Assessment, and Optimisation of Rules for Selected Umgeni Water Distribution Systems

Authors: Khanyisile Mnguni, Muthukrishnavellaisamy Kumarasamy, Jeff C. Smithers

Abstract:

Umgeni Water is a water board that supplies most parts of KwaZulu Natal with bulk portable water. Currently, Umgeni Water is running its distribution system based on required reservoir levels and demands and does not consider the energy cost at different times of the day, number of pump switches, and background leakages. Including these constraints can reduce operational cost, energy usage, leakages, and increase performance. Optimising pump schedules can reduce energy usage and costs while adhering to hydraulic and operational constraints. Umgeni Water has installed an online hydraulic software, WaterNet Advisor, that allows running different operational scenarios prior to implementation in order to optimise the distribution system. This study will investigate operation scenarios using optimisation techniques and WaterNet Advisor for a local water distribution system. Based on studies reported in the literature, introducing pump scheduling optimisation can reduce energy usage by approximately 30% without any change in infrastructure. Including tariff structures in an optimisation problem can reduce pumping costs by 15%, while including leakages decreases cost by 10%, and pressure drop in the system can be up to 12 m. Genetical optimisation algorithms are widely used due to their ability to solve nonlinear, non-convex, and mixed-integer problems. Other methods such as branch and bound linear programming have also been successfully used. A suitable optimisation method will be chosen based on its efficiency. The objective of the study is to reduce energy usage, operational cost, and leakages, and the feasibility of optimal solution will be checked using the Waternet Advisor. This study will provide an overview of the optimisation of hydraulic networks and progress made to date in multi-objective optimisation for a selected sub-system operated by Umgeni Water.

Keywords: energy usage, pump scheduling, WaterNet Advisor, leakages

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