Search results for: Google trend

Authors: Hakan Aydogan, Fatih Bozkurt, Huseyin Coskun

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In this study, the signal of brain electrical activities of the sixteen students selected from the Department of Electrical and Energy at Usak University have been recorded during a lecturer performed happiness emotions for the first group and anger emotions for the second group in different time while the groups were in the classroom separately. The attention and meditation data extracted from the recorded signals have been analyzed and evaluated toward the teacher’s specific emotion states simultaneously. Attention levels of students who are under influence of happiness emotions of the lecturer have a positive trend and attention levels of students who are under influence of anger emotions of the lecturer have a negative trend. The meditation or mental relaxation levels of students who are under influence of happiness emotions of the lecturer are 34.3% higher comparing with the mental relaxation levels of students who are under influence of anger emotions of the lecturer.

Keywords: brainwave, attention, meditation, education

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Authors: I. Made Gatot Karohika, Shigeyuki Haruyama, Ken Kaminishi, Oke Oktavianty, Didik Nurhadiyanto

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Contact width and contact stress are important parameters related to the leakage behavior of corrugated metal gasket. In this study, contact width and contact stress of three-layer corrugated metal gasket are investigated due to the modulus of elasticity and thickness of surface layer for 2 type gasket (0-MPa and 400-MPa mode). A finite element method was employed to develop simulation solution to analysis the effect of each parameter. The result indicated that lowering the modulus of elasticity ratio of surface layer will result in better contact width but the average contact stresses are smaller. When the modulus of elasticity ratio is held constant with thickness ratio increase, its contact width has an increscent trend otherwise the average contact stress has decreased trend.

Keywords: contact width, contact stress, layer, metal gasket, corrugated, simulation

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Authors: Mahmoud Roushdi, Hany Mostafa, Khaled Kheireldin

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Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor are promising and important economic regions in Egypt due to the unique location and development opportunities. Thus, the climate change impacts should be assessed over the mentioned area. Accordingly, this paper aims to assess the climate extreme indices in through the last 35 year over Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor in addition to predict the climate extreme indices up to 2100. Present and future climate indices were analyzed with using different RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 from 2010 until 2100 for Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal Corridor. Furthermore, both CanESM and HadGEM2 global circulation models were used. The results indicate that the number of summer days is predicted to increase, on the other hand the frost days is predicted to decrease. Moreover, it is noted a slight positive trend for the percentile of wet and extremely days R95p and R99p for RCP4.5 and negative trend for RCP8.5.

Keywords: climate change, extreme indices, RCP, Sinai Peninsula

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Authors: Abedalbasit M. Abedalhafiz, Aman Kasawneh, Zyad Altahynah, Ahmad Okor

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The purpose of this study was to determine the construct validity of the morale sprit scale (MSS). Ninety faculty members from colleges of physical education at Jordanian universities were chosen to participate in this study. The design of this study was an ex-post facto. The MSS consists of (48) items that measure different dimensions of morale spirit among faculty members. Principle axis factoring with oblique rotation was utilized to uncover the underlying structure of the instrument. The findings revealed eight factor solution explaining (72.825%). Seven factors were accepted according to the conditions of accepting factors. The seven factors were named morale as reflection of faculty and department's administration, regulations and instructions, working environment and conditions, promotions and incentives and salaries, relations between the faculty member's, the trend toward the college and university, the trend toward self factors.

Keywords: Factorial validity, morale sprit, faculty members, Jordanian Universities

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Authors: Farzad Shirzad, Bohlol Alijani, Mehry Akbary, Mohammad Saligheh

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Climate change and global warming are very important issues today. The process of climate change, especially changes in temperature and precipitation, is the most important issue in the environmental sciences. Climate change means changing the averages in the long run. Iran is located in arid and semi-arid regions due to its proximity to the equator and its location in the subtropical high pressure zone. In this respect, the Hyrcanian forest is a green necklace between the Caspian Sea and the south of the Alborz mountain range. In the forty-third session of UNESCO, it was registered as the second natural heritage of Iran. Beech is one of the most important tree species and the most industrial species of Hyrcanian forests. In this research, using dendroclimatology, the width of the tree ring, and climatic data of temperature and precipitation from Shanderman meteorological station located in the study area, And non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical method to investigate the trend of climate change over a time series of 202 years of growth ringsAnd Pearson statistical method was used to correlate the growth of "ring" growth rings of beech trees with climatic variables in the region. The results obtained from the time series of beech growth rings showed that the changes in beech growth rings had a downward and negative trend and were significant at the level of 5% and climate change occurred. The average minimum, medium, and maximum temperatures and evaporation in the growing season had an increasing trend, and the annual precipitation had a decreasing trend. Using Pearson method during fitting the correlation of diameter of growth rings with temperature, for the average in July, August, and September, the correlation is negative, and the average temperature in July, August, and September is negative, and for the average The average maximum temperature in February was correlation-positive and at the level of 95% was significant, and with precipitation, in June the correlation was at the level of 95% positive and significant.

Keywords: climate change, dendroclimatology, hyrcanian forest, beech

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Authors: Ahmed El-Ghorab

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Indigenous foods are promising sources of various chemical bioactive compounds such as vitamins, phenolic compounds and carotenoids. Therefore, the presence o different bioactive compounds in fruits could be used to retard or prevent various diseases such as cardiovascular and cancer. This is an update report on nutritional compositions and health promoting phytochemicals of different indigenous food . This different type of fruits and/ or other sources such as spices, aromatic plants, grains by-products, which containing bioactive compounds might be used as functional foods or for nutraceutical purposes. most common bioactive compounds are vitamin C, polyphenol, β- carotene and lycopene contents. In recent years, there has been a global trend toward the use of natural phytochemical as antioxidants and functional ingredients, which are present in natural resources such as vegetables, fruits, oilseeds and herbs.. Our future trend the Use of Natural antioxidants as a promising alternative to use of synthetic antioxidants and the Production of natural antioxidant on commercial scale to maximize the value addition of indigenous food waste as a good source of bioactive compounds such as antioxidants.

Keywords: bioactive compounds, antioxidants, by-product, indigenous foods, phenolic compounds

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Authors: Ebru Kaymaz, Aslı İlbay Hamamcı, Yakup Enes Garip, Samet Ay

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The use of hydrogen as a fuel is important for decreasing carbon emissions. For the steel industry, reducing carbon emissions is one of the most important agendas of recent times globally. Because of the Paris Agreement requirements, European steel industry studies on green steel production. Although many literature reviews have analyzed this topic from technological and hydrogen based ironmaking, there are very few studies focused on patents of decarbonize parts of the steel industry. Hence, this study focus on technological progress of hydrogen based ironmaking and on understanding the main trends through patent data. All available patent data were collected from Questel Orbit. The trend analysis of more than 900 patent documents has been carried out by using Questel Orbit Intellixir to analyze a large number of data for scientific intelligence.

Keywords: hydrogen based ironmaking, DRI, direct reduction, carbon emission, steelmaking, patent analysis

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Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Marco Cifrodelli, Corrado Corradini

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The trend of magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfalls seems to be different depending on the investigated area of the world. In this work, the impact of climate change on extreme rainfalls in Umbria, an inland region of central Italy, is examined using data recorded during the period 1921-2015 by 10 representative rain gauge stations. The study area is characterized by a complex orography, with altitude ranging from 200 to more than 2000 m asl. The climate is very different from zone to zone, with mean annual rainfall ranging from 650 to 1450 mm and mean annual air temperature from 3.3 to 14.2°C. Over the past 15 years, this region has been affected by four significant droughts as well as by six dangerous flood events, all with very large impact in economic terms. A least-squares linear trend analysis of annual maximums over 60 time series selected considering 6 different durations (1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, 48 h) showed about 50% of positive and 50% of negative cases. For the same time series the non-parametrical Mann-Kendall test with a significance level 0.05 evidenced only 3% of cases characterized by a negative trend and no positive case. Further investigations have also demonstrated that the variance and covariance of each time series can be considered almost stationary. Therefore, the analysis on the magnitude of extreme rainfalls supplies the indication that an evident trend in the change of values in the Umbria region does not exist. However, also the frequency of rainfall events, with particularly high rainfall depths values, occurred during a fixed period has also to be considered. For all selected stations the 2-day rainfall events that exceed 50 mm were counted for each year, starting from the first monitored year to the end of 2015. Also, this analysis did not show predominant trends. Specifically, for all selected rain gauge stations the annual number of 2-day rainfall events that exceed the threshold value (50 mm) was slowly decreasing in time, while the annual cumulated rainfall depths corresponding to the same events evidenced trends that were not statistically significant. Overall, by using a wide available dataset and adopting simple methods, the influence of climate change on the heavy rainfalls in the Umbria region is not detected.

Keywords: climate changes, rainfall extremes, rainfall magnitude and frequency, central Italy

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Authors: Peter Baji

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In recent years, a growing body of literature emphasizes the increasingly negative impacts of urban road congestion in the everyday life of citizens. Although there are different responses from the public sector to decrease traffic congestion in urban regions, the most effective public intervention is using congestion charges. Because travel is an economic asset, its consumption can be controlled by extra taxes or prices effectively, but this demand-side intervention is often unpopular. Measuring traffic flows with the help of different methods has a long history in transport sciences, but until recently, there was not enough sufficient data for evaluating road traffic flow patterns on the scale of an entire road system of a larger urban area. European cities (e.g., London, Stockholm, Milan), in which congestion charges have already been introduced, designated a particular zone in their downtown for paying, but it protects only the users and inhabitants of the CBD (Central Business District) area. Through the use of Google Maps data as a resource for revealing urban road traffic flow patterns, this paper aims to provide a solution for a fairer and smarter congestion pricing method in cities. The case study area of the research contains three bordering districts of Budapest which are linked by one main road. The first district (5th) is the original downtown that is affected by the congestion charge plans of the city. The second district (13th) lies in the transition zone, and it has recently been transformed into a new CBD containing the biggest office zone in Budapest. The third district (4th) is a mainly residential type of area on the outskirts of the city. The raw data of the research was collected with the help of Google’s Distance Matrix API (Application Programming Interface) which provides future estimated traffic data via travel times between freely fixed coordinate pairs. From the difference of free flow and congested travel time data, the daily congestion patterns and hot spots are detectable in all measured roads within the area. The results suggest that the distribution of congestion peak times and hot spots are uneven in the examined area; however, there are frequently congested areas which lie outside the downtown and their inhabitants also need some protection. The conclusion of this case study is that cities can develop a real-time and place-based congestion charge system that forces car users to avoid frequently congested roads by changing their routes or travel modes. This would be a fairer solution for decreasing the negative environmental effects of the urban road transportation instead of protecting a very limited downtown area.

Keywords: Budapest, congestion charge, distance matrix API, application programming interface, pilot study

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Authors: Xin Chen

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Pre-industrial old-world human cultural diversity and societal complexity exhibits remarkable geographic regularities. Along the latitudinal axis from the equator to the arctic, a descending trend of human ethno-cultural diversity is found to be in coincidence with a descending trend of biological diversity. Along the same latitudinal axis, the pre-industrial human societal complexity shows to peak at the intermediate latitude. It is postulated that human cultural diversity and societal complexity are strongly influenced by collective learning, and that collective learning is positively related to human population size, social interactions, and environmental challenges. Under such postulations the relationship between collective learning and important geographical-environmental factors, including climate and biodiversity/bio-productivity is examined. A hypothesis of intermediate bio-productivity is formulated to account for those latitudinal patterns of pre-industrial human societal complexity.

Keywords: cultural diversity, soetal complexity, latitudinal patterns, biodiversity, bio-productivity, collective learning

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Authors: Sakineh Nouri Saeidlou, Fatemeh Rezaiegoyjeloo, Parvin Ayremlou, Fariba Babaie

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Introduction: Childhood overweight and obesity is a major public health problem in both developed and developing countries. Overweight and obesity in children may have severe consequences later in adolescence and adulthood. The aim of current study was to determine the prevalence trend of overweight and obesity in school-aged children from 2009 to 2011. Methods: The present study was a population-based study and conducted in three consecutive years, from 2009 to 2011. The study population included all of primary, secondary and high school children in rural and urban regions of West Azarbijan province in West-North of Iran. Body mass index (BMI), the ratio of weight to height squared [weight (kg)]/ [height (m)]2, was calculated to the nearest decimal place. Overweight and obesity were classified using CDC recommendations for age and sex: a BMI 85th–95th percentile was classified as overweight and a BMI>95th percentile was classified as obese. All statistical analyses were performed using the Excel Software. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the sample in different time periods. The prevalence was calculated as the ratio of number present cases to a given population number in a given subgroup at a given time. Results: Overall, 165740, 145146 and 146203 school children were assessed at 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively. Prevalence of overweight in primary school children among girls were 52.83, 86.93 and 116.36 and for boys were 57.07, 53.4 and 93.55 per 1000 person in 2009, 2010 and 2011 years ,respectively. The prevalence of obesity in secondary school children for girls were 22.26, 27.75 and 28.43 and 26.52, 25.72 and 35.85 for boys per 1000 person in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively, The highest prevalence of overweight was 77.58, 142.4 and 126.46 per 1000 person among primary, secondary and high school children, respectively, in 2011. The lowest prevalence of obesity was 12.52, 24.1 and 21.61 per 1000 person among primary, secondary and high school children, respectively, in 2009. Conclusion: However, the rapid increase in both obesity and overweight should have a special attention. Research on prevalence trend of overweight and obesity in children is poorly reported in Iran. So that, future studies need to follow-up on the associations between overweight and obesity with health outcomes when children develop and reach adolescence and adulthood.

Keywords: overweight, obesity, school children, prevalence trend, Iran

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Authors: Ben Nwokenkwo, Michael M. Eze, Felix Ike

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The need to study trends in land values around institutions of higher learning cannot be overemphasized. Numerous studies in Nigeria have investigated the economic, and social influence of the sitting of institutions of higher learning at the micro, meso and macro levels. However, very few studies have evaluated the temporal extent at which such institution influences local land values. Since institutions greatly influence both the physical and environmental aspects of their immediate vicinity, attention must be taken to understand the influence of such changes on land values. This study examines the trend in land values using the Mann-Kendall analysis in order to determine if, between its beginning and end, a monotonic increase, decrease or stability exist in the land values across six institutions of higher learning for the period between 2004 and 2014. Specifically, The analysis was applied to the time series of the price(or value) of the land .The results of this study revealed that land values has either been increasing or remained stabled across all the institution sampled. The study finally recommends measures that can be put in place as counter magnets for land values estimation across institutions of higher learning.

Keywords: influence, land, trend, value

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (CDC). By considering two sets of data (raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data, while in the simulated data the return values show an increasing trend with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend with an upper bound. This clearly shows that although temperatures in the tropics show a sign of increase in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedance. The results of this paper are very vital in agricultural and environmental research.

Keywords: forecasting, generalized extreme value (GEV), meteorology, return level

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Authors: Asharaf Abdul Salam

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Arabian Gulf countries have norms and rules different from others: having an exodus of male immigrant labor contract holders of age 20-60 years as a floating population. Such a demographic scenario camouflages population ageing. However, it is observed on examining vigilantly, not only in the native population but also in the general population. This research on population ageing in the Arabian Gulf examines ageing scenario and concerns through analyses of international databases (US Census Bureau and United Nations) and national level databases (Censuses and Surveys) apart from a review of published research. Transitions in demography and epidemiology lead to gains in life expectancy and thereby reductions in fertility, leading to ageing of the population in the region. Even after bringing adult immigrants, indices and age pyramids show an increasing ageing trend in the total population, demonstrating an ageing workforce. Besides, the exclusive native population analysis reveals a trend of expansive pyramids (pre-transitional stage) turning to constrictive (transition stage) and cylindrical (post-transition stage) shapes. Age-based indices such as the index of ageing, age dependency ratio, and median age confirm this trend. While the feminine nature of ageing is vivid, gains in life expectancy and causes of death in old age, indicating co-morbidity compression, are concerns to ageing. Preparations are in demand to cope with ageing from different dimensions, as explained in the United Nations Plans of Action. A strategy of strengthening informal care with supportive semi-formal and supplementary formal care networks would alleviate this crisis associated with population ageing.

Keywords: total versus native population, indices of ageing, age pyramids, feminine nature, comorbidity compression, strategic interventions

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Authors: Mohammed E. Ibrahim, Baraa A. Taha, Kamil M. A. Shabban

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Background: Epilepsy is a common but widely misunderstood illness. Consequently, patients with epilepsy suffer from considerable stigmatization in society. This social stigma and discrimination often cause more suffering for the patients than the disease itself. Since very few studies have explored the misperceptions about epilepsy among university students in Sudan, it is not possible to provide focused intervention aimed at eliminating this discrimination. Methods: A cross-sectional study was applied among the first-year medical students at the University of Khartoum between December (2020) and February (2021). A 29-item standardized questionnaire was self-administered by 198 students (out of 320) who agreed to participate in this study. Google form was the tool used to collect the data. The data were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Science software version 26. Result: Overall, the results indicate a negative trend in knowledge and attitude toward epilepsy. The vast majority of the respondents (84.8%) have read or heard about epilepsy, while 43.9% had seen someone with epilepsy. Only 7.5% of the participants reported that epilepsy is contagious, whereas 43.4% of them think that epilepsy is a psychological disorder. About 62.2% of students think head/birth trauma is a cause of epilepsy. On the other side, about 15.7% and 5.1% believed that evil spirits and punishment from god can also be a possible cause of epilepsy; we found these false beliefs are more common in participants from rural areas (p-value < 0.05). In regard to attitude, 19.7% of students thought that it is inappropriate for a patient with epilepsy to have a child. This attitude correlates with the mother’s education as the percentage is higher for those who have lower mother’s education (through secondary school education and below) (p < 0.05). The majority of Our participant knew that some people with epilepsy need life-long drug treatment; this belief was found to be more common in females than their counterparts(p < 0.05). . Finally, most of the respondents (93.9%) thought that a child with epilepsy Can be successful in a normal class. This belief is four-time as common in participants whose mothers have higher education (through university education and above) compared with corresponding respondents (p < 0.05). Conclusion: This study concludes that students' knowledge about epilepsy is limited and requires immediate intervention through educational campaigns to develop a well-informed and tolerant community.

Keywords: epilepsy, awareness, attitude, university students, Sudan

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Authors: John Christian Lequiron, Gerry Bagtasa, Olivia Cabrera, Leoncio Amadore, Tolentino Moya

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Changes in air surface temperature play an important role in the Philippine’s economy, industry, health, and food production. While increasing global mean temperature in the recent several decades has prompted a number of climate change and variability studies in the Philippines, most studies still focus on rainfall and tropical cyclones. This study aims to investigate the trend and variability of observed air surface temperature and determine its major influencing factor/s in the Philippines. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to monthly mean temperature of 17 synoptic stations covering 56 years from 1960 to 2015 and a mean change of 0.58 °C or a positive trend of 0.0105 °C/year (p < 0.05) was found. In addition, wavelet decomposition was used to determine the frequency of temperature variability show a 12-month, 30-80-month and more than 120-month cycles. This indicates strong annual variations, interannual variations that coincide with ENSO events, and interdecadal variations that are attributed to PDO and CO2 concentrations. Air surface temperature was also correlated with smoothed sunspot number and galactic cosmic rays, the results show a low to no effect. The influence of ENSO teleconnection on temperature, wind pattern, cloud cover, and outgoing longwave radiation on different ENSO phases had significant effects on regional temperature variability. Particularly, an anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow east of the Philippines during the peak and decay phase of El Niño (La Niña) events leads to the advection of warm southeasterly (cold northeasterly) air mass over the country. Furthermore, an apparent increasing cloud cover trend is observed over the West Philippine Sea including portions of the Philippines, and this is believed to lessen the effect of the increasing air surface temperature. However, relative humidity was also found to be increasing especially on the central part of the country, which results in a high positive trend of heat index, exacerbating the effects on human discomfort. Finally, an assessment of gridded temperature datasets was done to look at the viability of using three high-resolution datasets in future climate analysis and model calibration and verification. Several error statistics (i.e. Pearson correlation, Bias, MAE, and RMSE) were used for this validation. Results show that gridded temperature datasets generally follows the observed surface temperature change and anomalies. In addition, it is more representative of regional temperature rather than a substitute to station-observed air temperature.

Keywords: air surface temperature, carbon dioxide, ENSO, galactic cosmic rays, smoothed sunspot number

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Authors: Mohammed Mustapha Alhaji, Sadiku Salawu

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A clay soil which classified under A-7-6 soil according to AASHTO soil classification system and CH according to the unified soil classification system was stabilized using A-3 soil (AASHTO soil classification system). The clay soil was replaced with 0%, 10%, 20% to 100% A-3 soil, compacted at both the BSL and BSH compaction energy level and using unconfined compressive strength as evaluation criteria. The MDD of the compactions at both the BSL and BSH compaction energy levels showed increase in MDD from 0% A-3 soil replacement to 40% A-3 soil replacement after which the values reduced to 100% A-3 soil replacement. The trend of the OMC with varied A-3 soil replacement is similar to that of MDD but in a reversed order. The OMC reduced from 0% A-3 soil replacement to 40% A-3 soil replacement after which the values increased to 100% A-3 soil replacement. This trend was attributed to the observed reduction in the void ratio from 0% A-3 soil replacement to 40% A-3 soil replacement after which the void ratio increased to 100% A-3 soil replacement. The maximum UCS for clay at varied A-3 soil replacement increased from 272 and 770kN/m2 for BSL and BSH compaction energy level at 0% A-3 soil replacement to 295 and 795kN/m2 for BSL and BSH compaction energy level respectively at 10% A-3 soil replacement after which the values reduced to 22 and 60kN/m2 for BSL and BSH compaction energy level respectively at 70% A-3 soil replacement. Beyond 70% A-3 soil replacement, the mixture cannot be moulded for UCS test.

Keywords: A-3 soil, clay minerals, pozzolanic action, stabilization

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Authors: R. Morbidelli, C. Saltalippi, A. Flammini, A. Garcia-Marin, J. L. Ayuso-Munoz

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The climate change, mainly due to greenhouse gas emissions associated to human activities, has been modifying hydrologic processes with a direct effect on air surface temperature that has significantly increased in the last century at global scale. In this context the Mediterranean area is considered to be particularly sensitive to the climate change impacts on temperature indices. An analysis finalized to study the evolution of temperature indices and to check the existence of significant trends in the Umbria Region (Italy) is presented. Temperature data were obtained by seven meteorological stations uniformly distributed in the study area and characterized by very long series of temperature observations (at least 60 years) spanning the 1924-2015 period. A set of 39 temperature indices represented by monthly and annual mean, average maximum and average minimum temperatures, has been derived. The trend analysis was realized by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, while the non-parametric Pettit test and the parametric Standard Normal Homogeneity test (SNHT) were used to check the presence of breakpoints or in-homogeneities due to environmental changes/anthropic activity or climate change effects. The Umbria region, in agreement with other recent studies exploring the temperature behavior in Italy, shows a general increase in all temperature indices, with the only exception of Gubbio site that exhibits very light negative trends or absence of trend. The presence of break points and in-homogeneity was widely explored through the selected tests and the results were checked on the basis of the well-known metadata of the meteorological stations.

Keywords: reception theory, reading, literary translation, horizons of expectation, reader

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Authors: Shayla He

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Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

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Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Issa Fofana, Brima Gegbe, Tamba I. Isaac

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Rice grain is Sierra Leone’s staple food and the nation imports over 120,000 metric tons annually due to a shortfall in its cultivation. Thus, the insufficient level of the crop's cultivation in Sierra Leone is caused by many problems and this led to the endlessly widening supply and demand for the crop within the country. Consequently, this has instigated the government to spend huge money on the importation of this grain that would have been otherwise cultivated domestically at a cheaper cost. Hence, this research attempts to explore the response of rice supply with respect to its demand in Sierra Leone within the period 1980-2010. The Nerlovian adjustment model to the Sierra Leone rice data set within the period 1980-2010 was used. The estimated trend equations revealed that time had significant effect on output, productivity (yield) and area (acreage) of rice grain within the period 1980-2010 and this occurred generally at the 1% level of significance. The results showed that, almost the entire growth in output had the tendency to increase in the area cultivated to the crop. The time trend variable that was included for government policy intervention showed an insignificant effect on all the variables considered in this research. Therefore, both the short-run and long-run price response was inelastic since all their values were less than one. From the findings above, immediate actions that will lead to productivity growth in rice cultivation are required. To achieve the above, the responsible agencies should provide extension service schemes to farmers as well as motivating them on the adoption of modern rice varieties and technology in their rice cultivation ventures.

Keywords: Nerlovian adjustment model, price elasticities, Sierra Leone, trend equations

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Authors: Abdelghani Qadem, Zouhair Qadem

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Like the countries of the Mediterranean region, Morocco is likely to be at high risk of water scarcity due to climate change. Morocco, which is the subject of this study, is located between two climatic zones, temperate in the North tropical in the South, Morocco is distinguished by four types of climate: humid, sub-humid, semi-arid, and arid. The last decades attest to the progression of the semi-arid climate towards the North of the country. The IPCC projections, which have been made in this direction, show that there is an overall downward trend in rainfall contributions varying on average between 10% and 30% depending on the scenario selected and the region considered, they also show an upward trend in average annual temperatures. These trends will have a real impact on water resources, which will result in a drop in the volume of water resources varying between 7.6% and 40.6%. The present study aims to describe the meteorological conditions of Morocco in order to answer the problem dealing with the effect of climatic fluctuations on water resources and to assess water vulnerability in the face of climate change.

Keywords: morocco, climate change, water resources, impact, water scarcity

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Authors: Kamal Kumar Tanti, Nayan Moni Saikia, Markynti Swer

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This study aims to investigate and analyse the trends and variability of rainfall in Shillong and its nearby areas, located in Meghalaya hills of North-East India; which is geographically a neighbouring area to the wettest places of the Earth, i.e., Cherrapunji and Mawsynram. The analysis of variability and trends to annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall was carried out, using the data collected from the IMD station at Shillong; thereby attempting to highlight whether rainfall in Shillong area has been increasing or decreasing over the years. Rainfall variability coefficient is utilized to compare the current rainfall trend of the area with its past rainfall trends. The present study also aims to analyse the frequency of occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the region. These studies will help us to establish a correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study area.

Keywords: trends and variability of rainfall, annual, seasonal, monthly and daily rainfall, rainfall variability coefficient, extreme rainfall events, climate change, Shillong, Cherrapunji, Mawsynram

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Authors: Rolf Katzenbach, Frithjof Clauss, Jie Zheng

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The final energy use can be divided mainly in four sectors: commercial, industrial, residential, and transportation. The trend in final energy consumption by sector plays as a most straightforward way to provide a wide indication of progress for reducing energy consumption and associated environmental impacts by different end use sectors. According to statistics the average share of end use energy for residential sector in the world was nearly 20% until 2011, in Germany a higher proportion is between 25% and 30%. However, it remains less studied than energy use in other three sectors as well its impacts on climate and environment. The reason for this involves a wide range of fields, including the diversity of residential construction like different housing building design and materials, living or energy using behavioral patterns, climatic condition and variation as well other social obstacles, market trend potential and financial support from government. This paper presents an extensive and in-depth analysis of the manner by which projects researched and operated by authors in the fields of energy efficiency primarily from the perspectives of both technical potential and initiative energy saving consciousness in the residential sectors especially in social housing buildings.

Keywords: energy efficiency, renewable energy, retro-commissioning, social housing, sustainability

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: Andrew R. Willis, Kevin Brink, Kathleen Dipple

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This article describes a software package called ROS-georegistration intended for use with the robot operating system (ROS) and the Gazebo 3D simulation environment. ROSgeoregistration provides tools for the simulation, test, and deployment of aerial georegistration algorithms and is available at github.com/uncc-visionlab/rosgeoregistration. A model creation package is provided which downloads multi-spectral images from the Google Earth Engine database and, if necessary, incorporates these images into a single, possibly very large, reference image. Additionally a Gazebo plugin which uses the real-time sensor pose and image formation model to generate simulated imagery using the specified reference image is provided along with related plugins for UAV relevant data. The novelty of this work is threefold: (1) this is the first system to link the massive multi-spectral imaging database of Google’s Earth Engine to the Gazebo simulator, (2) this is the first example of a system that can simulate geospatially and radiometrically accurate imagery from multiple sensor views of the same terrain region, and (3) integration with other UAS tools creates a new holistic UAS simulation environment to support UAS system and subsystem development where real-world testing would generally be prohibitive. Sensed imagery and ground truth registration information is published to client applications which can receive imagery synchronously with telemetry from other payload sensors, e.g., IMU, GPS/GNSS, barometer, and windspeed sensor data. To highlight functionality, we demonstrate ROSgeoregistration for simulating Electro-Optical (EO) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image sensors and an example use case for developing and evaluating image-based UAS position feedback, i.e., pose for image-based Guidance Navigation and Control (GNC) applications.

Keywords: EO-to-EO, EO-to-SAR, flight simulation, georegistration, image generation, robot operating system, vision-based navigation

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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Authors: Kristina Rosengren, Petra Brannefors, Eric Carlstrom

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Background: Implementation and use of person-centered care (PCC) is increasing worldwide, and why the current study intends to increase knowledge regarding how PCC is used in different European countries. Purpose: To describe the extent of person-centred care in 23 European countries in relation to use specific countries healthcare system (Beveridge, Bismarck, Mixed/OOP). Methods: The study was conducted by literature review inspired by Spice, both scientific empirical studies (Cinahl, Medline, Scopus) as well as grey literature (Google) were used. Totally 1194 documents were included divided into Cinahl n=139, Medline n=245, Scopus n=493 and Google n=317. Data were analysed with descriptive (percentage, range) regarding content and scope of PCC/country according to content and scope of PCC in each country, grouped into the healthcare system (Beveridge, Bismarck, Mixed/OOP) and geographic placement. Results: PCC were most common in UK (England, Scotland, Wales, North Ireland), n=481, 40.3%, Sweden (n=231, 19.3%), The Netherlands (n=80, 6.7%), Ireland (n=79, 6.6%) and Norway (n=61, 5.1%); and less common in Poland (0.6%), Hungary (0.5%), Greece (0.4%), Latvia (0.4%) and Serbia (0%). Beveridge healthcare system (12/23=0.5217, 52.2%) show 85 percent of documents with advantage of scientific literature valued 2.92 (n=999, 0.55-4.07), compare to advantage of grey literature in Bismarck (10/23=0.4347, 43.5%) with 15 percentage valued 2.35 (n=190, 0-3.27) followed by Mixed/OOP (1/23=4%) with 0.4 valued 2.25. Conclusions: Seven out of 10 countries with Beveridge health system used PCC compare to less-used PCC in countries with the Bismarck system. Research, as well as national regulations regarding PCC, are important tools to motivate the advantage of PCC in clinical practice. Moreover, implementation of PCC needs a systematic approach, from national (politicians), regional (guideline) and local (specific healthcare settings) levels visualized by decision-making as law, mission, policies, and routines in clinical practice to establish a well-integrated phenomenon in Europe.

Keywords: Beveridge, Bismarck, Europe, evidence-based, literature review, person-centered care

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Authors: Zainab A. Alaghbri, Labiba A., Esam A.

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Tuberculosis (TB) is the fourth leading cause of death in Yemen and is considered a major priority by the Ministry of Public Health. The war in Yemen has led to the emergence of one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world. These circumstances may lead to exacerbate the situation of tuberculosis. This study aims to describe the trend and incidence of TB in north and east governorates, Yemen 2019-2021 and provide recommendations for interventions. A descriptive analysis was conducted during July to September 2022. Data of TB cases were obtained from the national tuberculosis program as soft copy. The Data included the TB case collected and diagnosed during 2019-2021. The data contains the following variables: Sex, age, governorates, smear-positive cases, extra-pulmonary cases, and treatment outcomes. 16791 TB cases were notified for an overall case notification rate 65.5/100000 for all forms (smear positive and Extra-pulmonary), There was a slightly declined in 2020 and 2021 by 1%. Both the pulmonary smear positive and Extra pulmonary rates were slightly decreased from 8.8 to 7.7 and 13.5 to 12.8 / 100, 000 populations respectively. For Tuberculosis cases by type of patient, the incidence of extra-pulmonary was the highest (12,9, 11.3 and 12,2/100000) over the three years. However, the incidence of pulmonary failure was the lowest. The majority of cases were in the age group 25-34. The overall treatment success rate for smear-positive patients was 88%. Of the 627 patients with documented unsuccessful outcomes (e.g., failure, death, and default), 165 (23%) died, 52 (8.3%) failed treatment, and 410 (65%) defaulted. Overall, the magnitude of tuberculosis decreased over the periods reviewed. The proportion of Extra-pulmonary TB was the highest. The success rate achieved after treatment was below the levels established by the WHO End Tuberculosis Strategy (90%). Failure to complete treatment may be responsible for the low success rate. Monitoring and addressing the risk factors that were associated with treatment outcomes and duration may help improve the likelihood of achieving favorable outcomes among cases of smear-positive pulmonary TB.

Keywords: tuberculosis, trend, incidence, yemen

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Authors: Zhen Peng, Baifeng Wu

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Modern computing technology enters the era of parallel computing with the trend of sustainable and scalable parallelism. Single Instruction Multiple Data (SIMD) is an important way to go along with the trend. It is able to gather more and more computing ability by increasing the number of processor cores without the need of modifying the program. Meanwhile, in the field of scientific computing and engineering design, many computation intensive applications are facing the challenge of increasingly large amount of data. Data parallel computing will be an important way to further improve the performance of these applications. In this paper, we take the accurate collision detection in building information modeling as an example. We demonstrate a model for constructing a data parallel algorithm. According to the model, a complex object is decomposed into the sets of simple objects; collision detection among complex objects is converted into those among simple objects. The resulting algorithm is a typical SIMD algorithm, and its advantages in parallelism and scalability is unparalleled in respect to the traditional algorithms.

Keywords: data parallelism, collision detection, single instruction multiple data, building information modeling, continuous scalability

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Authors: Aayush Anant, Roshni Thendiyath

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Aridity impacts on agriculture, as well as ecological, human health, and economic activities. In the present study, the effect of climate change on aridity index has been analysed in South Bihar for the past 30 year period by five types of aridity indices as Lang AI, De-Martonne AI, Erinc AI, Pinna combinative AI and UNEP AI. For the study of aridity index, the analysis of rainfall and temperature is significant. Rainfall was analysed for 30 year period from data of 23 gridded stations in for the period 1991-2020. The results show that rainfall pattern was decreasing with respect to previous decades for majority of stations. Trend of maximum, minimum and mean annual temperature has been observed, which shows increasing trend. Structural breakpoint was observed for mean annual temperature data series in year 2004. In period 1991-2004 mean annual temperature was 25.25 ºC, and in period 2005-2020, mean annual temperature was 25.7 ºC. Average aridity index has been calculated by all the above mentioned methods for whole 30 period. Lang AI shows that eastern part of study area is Humid type, and rest all is semi arid. De-Martonne AI also reveals that east part is humid, but rest of the study area is moist sub humid. According to Erinc AI and Pinna, combinative AI shows that whole south Bihar is dry sub humid and semi dry, respectively. UNEP AI shows most of the part as sub humid, and very small part in west is semi arid, while small part of east is humid. Temporal distribution of all the aridity indices shows a decreasing trend. This indicates a decrease in the humid areas in south Bihar for the selected time period.

Keywords: drought, aridity index, climate change, rainfall, temperature

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