Search results for: perceived risk

Authors: Karim Ahmed

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The purpose of this study was to investigate how factoring the impact of natural disasters beyond flooding would affect managed retreat policy eligibility in the United States. For the study design, a correlation analysis method compared weighted measures of flooding and other natural disasters (e.g., wildfires, tornadoes, heatwaves, etc.) to CBSA Populated areas, the prevalence of cropland, and relative poverty on a county level. The study found that the vast majority of CBSAs eligible for managed retreat programs under a policy inclusive of non-flooding events would have already been covered by flood-only managed retreat policies. However, it is noteworthy that a majority of those counties that are not covered by a flood-only managed retreat policy have high rates of poverty and are either heavily populated and/or agriculturally active. The correlation is particularly strong between counties that are subject to multiple natural hazards and those that have both high rates of relative poverty and cropland prevalence. There is currently no managed retreat policy for agricultural land in the United States despite the environmental implications and food supply chain vulnerabilities related to at-risk cropland. The findings of this study suggest both that such a policy should be created and, when it is, that special attention should be paid to non-flood natural disasters affecting agricultural areas. These findings also reveal that, while current flood-based policies in the United States serve many areas that do need access to managed retreat funding and implementation, other vulnerable areas are overlooked by this approach. These areas are often deeply impoverished and are therefore particularly vulnerable to natural disaster; if and when those disasters do occur, these areas are often less financially prepared to recover or retreat from the disaster’s advance and, due to the limitations of the current policies discussed above, are less able to take the precautionary measures necessary to mitigate their risk.

Keywords: flood, hazard, land use, managed retreat, wildfire

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Authors: Mohd Zubairy Bin Shamsudin

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Work-related Musculoskeletal Disorder (WMSDs) is one of the occupational health problems encountered by workers over the world. In Malaysia, there is increasing in trend over the years, particularly in the manufacturing sectors. Current method to observe workplace WMSDs is self-report questionnaire, observation and direct measurement. Observational method is most frequently used by the researcher and practitioner because of the simplified, quick and versatile when it applies to the worksite. However, there are some limitations identified e.g. some approach does not cover a wide spectrum of biomechanics activity and not sufficiently sensitive to assess the actual risks. This paper elucidates the development of Work Movement Task Analysis (WMTA), which is an observational tool for industrial practitioners’ especially untrained personnel to assess WMSDs risk factors and provide a basis for suitable intervention. First stage of the development protocol involved literature reviews, practitioner survey, tool validation and reliability. A total of six themes/comments were received in face validity stage. New revision of WMTA consisted of four sections of postural (neck, back, shoulder, arms, and legs) and associated risk factors; movement, load, coupling and basic environmental factors (lighting, noise, odorless, heat and slippery floor). For inter-rater reliability study shows substantial agreement among rater with K = 0.70. Meanwhile, WMTA validation shows significant association between WMTA score and self-reported pain or discomfort for the back, shoulder&arms and knee&legs with p<0.05. This tool is expected to provide new workplace ergonomic observational tool to assess WMSDs for the next stage of the case study.

Keywords: assessment, biomechanics, musculoskeletal disorders, observational tools

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Authors: Balázs Ádám, Randi Nørgaard Fløe Pedersen, Jørgen Riis Jepsen

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Volatile chemicals that accumulate and release from freight containers constitute significant health risks. Fumigation to prevent spread of pests and off-gassing of freight are sources of hazardous chemicals. The aim of our study was to investigate the regulation and practice of container handling with focus on preventive measures applied against chemical exposures in Denmark. A comprehensive systematic search of scientific literature and organizational domains of international and Danish regulatory bodies was performed to explore regulations related to safe work with transport containers. The practice of container work was investigated in a series of semi-structured interviews with managers and health and safety representatives of organizations that handle transport containers. Although there are several international and national regulations and local safety instructions that relate to container handling, the provided information is not specific or up-to-date enough to conduct safe practice in many aspects. The interviewees estimate high frequency of containers with chemical exposure and deem that they can potentially damage health, although recognizable health effects are rare. Knowledge is limited about the chemicals and most of them cannot be measured by available devices. Typical preventive measures are passive ventilation and personal protective equipment but their use is not consistent and may not provide adequate protection. Hazardous chemicals are frequently present in transport containers; however, managers, workers and even occupational health professionals have limited knowledge about the problem. Detailed risk assessment and specific instructions on risk management are needed to provide safe conditions for work with containers.

Keywords: chemical exposure, fumigation, occupational health and safety regulation, transport container

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Authors: Jingwen Shan

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In order to explore the key factors affecting the robot program learning intention of school students, this study takes the technology acceptance model as the theoretical basis and invites 167 students from Jiading District of Shanghai as the research subjects. In the robot course, the model of school students on their learning behavior is constructed. By verifying the causal path relationship between variables, it is concluded that teachers can enhance students’ perceptual usefulness to robotics courses by enhancing subjective norms, entertainment perception, and reducing technical anxiety, such as focusing on the gradual progress of programming and analyzing learner characteristics. Students can improve perceived ease of use by enhancing self-efficacy. At the same time, robot hardware designers can optimize in terms of entertainment and interactivity, which will directly or indirectly increase the learning intention of the robot course. By changing these factors, the learning behavior of primary and secondary school students can be more sustainable.

Keywords: TAM, learning behavior intentions, robot courses, primary and secondary school students

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Authors: Shahid Imran

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'Mediatization' has influenced the politics by shaping and transforming the attitudes and practices of political actors. It is a serious challenge to democracy in today’s era. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of media politics interplay in Pakistan and the contextual factors which govern this interplay. It will also address the perceived influence of media on the practices of politicians from the perspectives of the actors. The objectives have been achieved qualitatively through Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). The phenomenological data have been collected using semi-structured interviews of journalists and politicians of Pakistan. The findings depict that politics in Pakistan is more driven by media logic than political or democratic logic. Media and politics have a ‘Tom and Jerry’ relationship. Political ecology is highly media-induced: politicians strategically adopt and adapt the media logic to be in the ‘media spotlight’; journalists, on the other hands, do not practice ‘fair journalism rather a more politically parallelized. The mediatized political communication behaviours of the actors are the undermining the public service logic and affecting the spirit of democracy in Pakistan. The study offers some valued implications for media, politicians and policy makers.

Keywords: medialization, media logic, politics, political logic

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Authors: Samuel Olajide Babawale, Jonathan Bridge

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Natural Flood Management (NFM) is promoted as part of sustainable flood management (SFM) in response to climate change adaptation. Stakeholder engagement is central to this approach, and current trends are progressively moving towards a collaborative learning approach where stakeholder participation is perceived as one of the indicators of sustainable development. Within this methodology, participation embraces a diversity of knowledge and values underpinned by a philosophy of empowerment, equity, trust, and learning. To identify barriers to NFM uptake, there is a need for a new understanding of how stakeholder participation could be enhanced to benefit individual and community resilience within SFM. This is crucial in light of climate change threats and scientific reliability concerns. In contributing to this new understanding, this research evaluated the proposed interventions on six (6) UK NFM in a catchment known as the Sheffield Lakeland Partnership Area with reference to the Environment Agency Working with Natural Processes (WWNP) Potentials/Opportunities. Three of the opportunities, namely Run-off Attenuation Potential of 1%, Run-off Attenuation Potential of 3.3% and Riparian Woodland Potential, were modeled. In all the models, the interventions, though they have been proposed or already in place, are not in agreement with the data presented by EA WWNP. Findings show some institutional weaknesses, which are seen to inhibit the development of adequate flood management solutions locally with damaging implications for vulnerable communities. The gap in communication from practitioners poses a challenge to the implementation of real flood mitigating measures that align with the lead agency’s nationally accepted measures which are identified as not feasible by the farm management officers within this context. Findings highlight a dominant top-bottom approach to management with very minimal indication of local interactions. Current WWNP opportunities have been termed as not realistic by the people directly involved in the daily management of the farms, with less emphasis on prevention and mitigation. The targeted approach suggested by the EA WWNP is set against adaptive flood management and community development. The study explores dimensions of participation using the self-reliance and self-help approach to develop a methodology that facilitates reflections of currently institutionalized practices and the need to reshape spaces of interactions to enable empowered and meaningful participation. Stakeholder engagement and resilience planning underpin this research. The findings of the study suggest different agencies have different perspectives on “community participation”. It also shows communities in the case study area appear to be least influential, denied a real chance of discussing their situations and influencing the decisions. This is against the background that the communities are in the most productive regions, contributing massively to national food supplies. The results are discussed concerning practical implications for addressing interagency partnerships and conducting grassroots collaborations that empower local communities and seek solutions to sustainable development challenges. This study takes a critical look into the challenges and progress made locally in sustainable flood risk management and adaptation to climate change by the United Kingdom towards achieving the global 2030 agenda for sustainable development.

Keywords: natural flood management, sustainable flood management, sustainable development, working with natural processes, environment agency, run-off attenuation potential, climate change

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Authors: Hadi Allafta, Christian Opp

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Soil erosion is a major concern in the Shatt Al-Arab basin owing to the steepness of its topography as well as the remarkable altitudinal deference between the upstream and downstream parts of the basin. Such conditions resulted in soil vulnerability to erosion; huge amounts of soil are annually transported, creating enormous implications such as land degradation, structure damage, biodiversity loss, productivity decline, etc. Thus, evaluation of soil erosion risk and its spatial distribution is crucial to build adatabase for efficient control measures. The present study used revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) model integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS) for depicting soil erosion hazard zones in the Shatt Al-Arab basin. The RUSLE model incorporated several parameters such as rainfall-runoff erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length and steepness, land cover and management, and conservation support practice for soil erosion zonation. High to medium soil loss of 100 to 20 ton perhectare per year represents around 25% of the basin area, while the areas of low soil loss of less than 20 ton per hectare per year occupied the rest of the total area. The high soil loss rates are linked to areas of high rainfall levels, loamy soil domination, elevated terrains/plateau margins with steep side slope, and high cultivation activities. The findings of the current study can be useful for managers and policy makers in the implementation of a suitable conservation program to reduce soil erosion or to recommend soil conservation acts if development projects are to be continued at regions of high soil erosion risk.

Keywords: geographic information system, revised universal soil loss equation, shatt Al-Arab basin, soil erosion

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Authors: Yazeed Al-Sheikh

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Pregnancy represents a risk factor in the occurrence of vulvovaginal candidiasis. To investigate the prevalence rate of vaginal carriage of Candida species in Saudi pregnant and non-pregnant women, high vaginal swab (HVS) specimens (707) were examined by direct microscopy (10% KOH and Giemsa staining) and parallel cultured on Sabouraud Dextrose Agar (SDA) as well as on “CHROM agar Candida” medium. As expected, Candida-positive cultures were frequently observed in pregnant-test group (24%) than in non-pregnant group (17%). The frequency of culture positive was correlated to pregnancy (P=0.047), parity (P=0.001), use of contraceptive (P=0.146), or antibiotics (P=0.128), and diabetic-patients (P < 0.0001). Out of 707 HVS examined specimens, 157 specimens were yeast-positive culture (22%) on Sabouraud Dextrose Agar or “CHROM agar Candida”. In comparison, the sensitivities of the direct 10% KOH and the Giemsa stain microscopic examination methods were 84% (132/157) and 95% (149/157) respectively but both with 100% specificity. As for the identity of recovered 157 yeast isolates, based on API 20C biotype carbohydrate assimilation, germ tube and chlamydospore formation, C. albicansand C. glabrata constitute 80.3 and 12.7% respectively. Rates of C. tropicalis, C. kefyr, C. famata or C. utilis were 2.6, 1.3, and 0.6% respectively. Sachromyces cerevisiae and Rhodotorula mucilaginosa yeasts were also encountered at a frequency of 1.3 and 0.6% respectively. Finally, among all recovered 157 yeast-isolates, strains resistant to ketoconazole were not detected, whereas 5% of the C. albicans and as high as 55% of the non-albicans yeast isolates (majority C. glabrata) showed resistance to fluconazole. Our findings may prove helpful for continuous determination of the existing vaginal candidiasis causative species during pregnancy, its lab-diagnosis and/or control and possible measures to minimize the incidence of the disease-associated pre-term delivery.

Keywords: vaginal candidiasis, Candida spp., pregnancy, risk factors, API 20C-yeast biotypes, giemsa stain, antifungal agents

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Authors: Nwafia Ifeyinwa Nkeiruka, Nwafia Walter Chukwuma

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Since the early 1980’s fungi have emerged as major causes of human diseases, especially among immunocompromised. The most commonly isolated yeast is Candida albicans and constitutes the 4th most common nosocomial BSI in humans. It is progressive and cumulative and become more complex over time.It can even lead to leaky gut syndrome that causes food and environmental allergies. It is worthy of note that all the available data on oral Candida risk factors in humans were documented essentially using data from studies conducted in other areas, hence there is need for comparative and complementary information from the South eastern part of Nigeria. Method: 200 subjects of all age groups of both sexes were randomly examined,by swabbing their palatine mucosa and dorsal tongue with sterile cotton wool,then cultured into Sabouraud dextrose agar plates supplemented with antibiotics and incubated aerobically at 37 degree for 48 hrs. Identification of Candida albicans was done by germ tubes tests, chlamydospores production on cornmeal agar supplemented with 1% Tween 80.Sugar and nitrogen assimilation test using API 20C Auxanogram and potassium nitrate agar. Results: Out of 30 samples that were positive for candida, 15 (50%) were candida albicans. Using the anova test (P < 0.05) this variation is significant (P = 0016). followed by C. dublinensis 3 (13%), C. tropicalis 3 (10%), C. pseudotropicalis 3 (10%), C, glabrata 2 (7%), C. parapsilosis 2 (7%) and lastly C. krusei 1 (3%).However, 53% of the patients were female while 47% were male. Among the HIV positive isolates.67% were HIV isolates not on drugs while 33% positives isolates were on drugs and the percentages of candida species in these patients were as follows C. albicans were 45% followed by C. glabrata and C.tropicalis which were 17% each, C.parapsilosis, C.dubliensis and C.pseudotropicalis were all 8% each. Conclusion: Oral Candidiasis is a marker of systemic diseases and in some cases, it may be the first clinical presentation. There is need for more intensive clinical and laboratory monitoring and possible early intervention to prevent the reoccurrence and resistance to treatment.

Keywords: oral cavity, Candida species, oral Candidiasis, risk factors

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Authors: Abdulaziz Alakeel, Roaa Alamri, Abdulrahman Alomair, Mohammed Fouda

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Introduction: Ibrutinib is a selective, potent, and irreversible small-molecule inhibitor of Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK). It forms a covalent bond with a cysteine residue (CYS-481) at the active site of Btk, leading to inhibition of Btk enzymatic activity. The drug is indicated to treat certain type of cancers such as mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), chronic lymphocytic leukaemia and Waldenström's macroglobulinaemia (WM). Cardiac failure is a condition referred to inability of heart muscle to pump adequate blood to human body organs. There are multiple types of cardiac failure including left and right-sided heart failure, systolic and diastolic heart failures. The aim of this review is to evaluate the risk of cardiac failure associated with the use of ibrutinib and to suggest regulatory recommendations if required. Methodology: Signal Detection team at the National Pharmacovigilance Center (NPC) of Saudi Food and Drug Authority (SFDA) performed a comprehensive signal review using its national database as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) database (VigiBase), to retrieve related information for assessing the causality between cardiac failure and ibrutinib. We used the WHO- Uppsala Monitoring Centre (UMC) criteria as standard for assessing the causality of the reported cases. Results: Case Review: The number of resulted cases for the combined drug/adverse drug reaction are 212 global ICSRs as of July 2020. The reviewers have selected and assessed the causality for the well-documented ICSRs with completeness scores of 0.9 and above (35 ICSRs); the value 1.0 presents the highest score for best-written ICSRs. Among the reviewed cases, more than half of them provides supportive association (four probable and 15 possible cases). Data Mining: The disproportionality of the observed and the expected reporting rate for drug/adverse drug reaction pair is estimated using information component (IC), a tool developed by WHO-UMC to measure the reporting ratio. Positive IC reflects higher statistical association while negative values indicates less statistical association, considering the null value equal to zero. The results of (IC=1.5) revealed a positive statistical association for the drug/ADR combination, which means “Ibrutinib” with “Cardiac Failure” have been observed more than expected when compared to other medications available in WHO database. Conclusion: Health regulators and health care professionals must be aware for the potential risk of cardiac failure associated with ibrutinib and the monitoring of any signs or symptoms in treated patients is essential. The weighted cumulative evidences identified from causality assessment of the reported cases and data mining are sufficient to support a causal association between ibrutinib and cardiac failure.

Keywords: cardiac failure, drug safety, ibrutinib, pharmacovigilance, signal detection

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Authors: Ammal M. Metwally, Lobna A. ElEtreby, Rehan M. Saleh, Ghada Abdrabou, Somia I. Salama, Amira Orabi, Mohamed Abdelrahman

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Hepatitis C virus infection is a public health threat in Egypt. To control infection, efforts should be spent to encourage healthy behavior. This study aimed to assess the level of behavioral development in order to create a positive environment for the adoption of the recommended behaviors. The study was conducted over one year from Jan. 2011 till Jan. 2012. Knowledge, attitude and behavior of 540 HCV patients and 102 of their contacts were assessed and the level of behavioral development was determined. The study revealed that the majority of patients and contacts knew that HCV infection is dangerous with perceived concern for early diagnosis and treatment. More than 75% knew the correct modes of transmission. The assessment showed positive attitudes towards the recommended practices with the intention to adopt those practices. Strategies to create opportunities to continue the recommended behaviors should be adopted together with the reinforcement of social support.

Keywords: hepatitis C virus, level of behavioral development, recommended behaviors

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Authors: Vidhya Venugopal, Rekha S.

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Introduction: Climate change and the growing frequency of higher average temperatures and heat waves have detrimental health effects, especially for certain vulnerable groups with limited socioeconomic status (SES) or physiological capacity to adapt to or endure high temperatures. Little research has been conducted on the effects of heat stress on pregnant women and fetuses in tropical regions such as India. Very high ambient temperatures may worsen Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes (APOs) and are a major worry in the scenario of climate change. The relationship between rising temperatures and APO must be better understood in order to design more effective interventions. Methodology: We conducted an observational cohort study involving 865 pregnant women in various districts of Tamil Nadu districts between 2014 and 2021. Physiological Heat Strain Indicators (HSI) such as morning and evening Core Body Temperature (CBT) and Urine Specific Gravity (USG) were monitored using an infrared thermometer and refractometer, respectively. A validated, modified version of the HOTHAPS questionnaire was utilised to collect self-reported health symptoms. A follow-up was undertaken with the mothers to collect information regarding birth outcomes and APOs, such as spontaneous abortions, stillbirths, Preterm Birth (PTB), birth abnormalities, and Low Birth Weight (LBW). Major findings of the study: According to the findings of our study, ambient temperatures (mean WBGT°C) were substantially higher (>28°C) for approximately 46% of women performing moderate daily life activities. 82% versus 43% of these women experienced dehydration and heat-related complaints. 34% of women had USG >1.020, which is symptomatic of dehydration. APOs, which include spontaneous abortions, were prevalent at 2.2%, stillbirth/preterm birth/birth abnormalities were prevalent at 2.2%, and low birth weight was prevalent at 16.3%. With exposures to WBGT>28°C, the incidence of miscarriage or unexpected abortion rose by approximately 2.7 times (95% CI: 1.1-6.9). In addition, higher WBGT exposures were associated with a 1.4-fold increased risk of unfavorable birth outcomes (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.02-1.09). The risk of spontaneous abortions was 2.8 times higher among women who conceived during the hotter months (February – September) compared to those women who conceived in the cooler months (October – January) (95% CI: 1.04-7.4). Positive relationships between ambient heat and APOs found in this study necessitate further exploration into the underlying factors for extensive cohort studies to generate information to enable the formulation of policies that can effectively protect these women against excessive heat stress for enhanced maternal and fetal health.

Keywords: heat exposures, community, pregnant women, physiological strain, adverse outcome, interventions

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Authors: H. H. Goh, Q. S. Chua, S. W. Lee, B. C. Kok, K. C. Goh, K. T. K. Teo

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At present, the evaluation of voltage stability assessment experiences sizeable anxiety in the safe operation of power systems. This is due to the complications of a strain power system. With the snowballing of power demand by the consumers and also the restricted amount of power sources, therefore, the system has to perform at its maximum proficiency. Consequently, the noteworthy to discover the maximum ability boundary prior to voltage collapse should be undertaken. A preliminary warning can be perceived to evade the interruption of power system’s capacity. The effectiveness of line voltage stability indices (LVSI) is differentiated in this paper. The main purpose of the indices is used to predict the proximity of voltage instability of the electric power system. On the other hand, the indices are also able to decide the weakest load buses which are close to voltage collapse in the power system. The line stability indices are assessed using the IEEE 14 bus test system to validate its practicability. Results demonstrated that the implemented indices are practically relevant in predicting the manifestation of voltage collapse in the system. Therefore, essential actions can be taken to dodge the incident from arising.

Keywords: critical line, line outage, line voltage stability indices (LVSI), maximum loadability, voltage collapse, voltage instability, voltage stability analysis

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Authors: Aisha Ijaz

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The paper focuses on the impact of Muslim religiosity on convenience food purchases and involvement experienced in a non-Muslim culture. There is a scarcity of research on the purchasing patterns of Muslim diaspora communities residing in risk societies, particularly in contexts where there is an increasing inclination toward industrialized food items alongside a renewed interest in the concept of natural foods. The United Kingdom serves as an appropriate setting for this study due to the increasing Muslim population in the country, paralleled by the expanding Halal Food Market. A multi-dimensional framework is proposed, testing for five forms of involvement, specifically Purchase Decision Involvement, Product Involvement, Behavioural Involvement, Intrinsic Risk and Extrinsic Risk. Quantitative cross-sectional consumer data were collected through a face-to-face survey contact method with 141 Muslims during the summer of 2020 in Liverpool located in the Northwest of England. proportion formula was utilitsed, and the population of interest was stratified by gender and age before recruitment took place through local mosques and community centers. Six input variables were used (intrinsic religiosity and involvement dimensions), dividing the sample into 4 clusters using the Two-Step Cluster Analysis procedure in SPSS. Nuanced variances were observed in the type of involvement experienced by religiosity group, which influences behaviour when purchasing convenience food. Four distinct market segments were identified: highly religious ego-involving (39.7%), less religious active (26.2%), highly religious unaware (16.3%), less religious concerned (17.7%). These segments differ significantly with respects to their involvement, behavioural variables (place of purchase and information sources used), socio-cultural (acculturation and social class), and individual characteristics. Choosing the appropriate convenience food is centrally related to the value system of highly religious ego-involving first-generation Muslims, which explains their preference for shopping at ethnic food stores. Less religious active consumers are older and highly alert in information processing to make the optimal food choice, relying heavily on product label sources. Highly religious unaware Muslims are less dietary acculturated to the UK diet and tend to rely on digital and expert advice sources. The less-religious concerned segment, who are typified by younger age and third generation, are engaged with the purchase process because they are worried about making unsuitable food choices. Research implications are outlined and potential avenues for further explorations are identified.

Keywords: consumer behaviour, consumption, convenience food, religion, muslims, UK

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Authors: Gizem Akcan, Erdinc Ozturk

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The purpose of the study was to determine some psychosocial variables that predict dissociation in university students. These psychosocial variables were perceived childhood trauma, alexithymia, and gender. 150 (75 males, 75 females) university students (bachelor, master and postgraduate) were enrolled in this study. They were chosen from universities in Istanbul at the education year of 2016-2017. Dissociative Experiences Scale (DES), Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) and Toronto Alexithymia Scale were used to assess related variables. Demographic Information Form was given to students in order to have their demographic information. Frequency Distribution, Linear Regression Analysis, and t-test analysis were used for statistical analysis. Childhood trauma and alexithymia were found to have predictive value on dissociation among university students. However, physical abuse, physical neglect and emotional neglect sub dimensions of childhood trauma and externally-oriented thinking sub dimension of alexithymia did not have predictive value on dissociation. Moreover, there was no significant difference between males and females in terms of dissociation scores of participants.

Keywords: childhood trauma, dissociation, alexithymia, gender

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Authors: Sayyed Mostafa Ahmadi, Neda Raeesi

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Background and Objectives: Cervical spondylosis is a common problem that affects the adult spine and is the most common cause of radiculopathy and myelopathy in older patients. Anterior discectomy and fusion is a well-known technique in degenerative cervical disc disease. However, one of the late undesirable complications is adjacent disc degeneration, which affects about 91% of patients in ten years. Many factors can be effective in causing this complication, but some are still debatable. Discovering these risk factors and eliminating them can improve the quality of life. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study. All patients who underwent anterior discectomy and fusion surgery in the neurosurgery ward of Imam Khomeini Hospital between 2013 and 2016 were evaluated. Their demographic information was collected. All patients were visited and examined for radiculopathy, myelopathy, and muscular force. At the same visit, all patients were asked to have a facelift, and neck profile, as well as a neck MRI(General Tesla 3). Preoperative graphs were used to measure the diameter of the cervical canal(Pavlov ratio) and to evaluate sagittal alignment(Cobb Angle). Preoperative MRI of patients was reviewed for anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification. Result: In this study, 57 patients were studied. The mean age of patients was 50.63 years, and 49.1% were male. Only 3.5% of patients had anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification. Symptomatic ASD was observed in 26.6%. The X-rays and MRIs showed evidence of 80.7% radiological ASD. Among patients who underwent one-level surgery, 20% had symptomatic ASD, but among patients who underwent two-level surgery, the rate of ASD was 50%.In other words, the higher the number of surfaces that are operated and fused, the higher the probability of symptomatic ASD(P-value <0.05). The X-rays and MRIs showed 80.7% of radiological ASD. Among patients who underwent surgery at one level, 78% had radiological ASD, and this number was 92% among patients who underwent two-level surgery(P-value> 0.05). Demographic variables such as age, sex, height, weight, and BMI did not have a significant effect on the incidence of radiological ASD(P-value> 0.05), but sex and height were two influential factors on symptomatic ASD(P-value <0.05). Other related variables such as family history, smoking and exercise also have no significant effect(P-value> 0.05). Radiographic variables such as Pavlov ratio and sagittal alignment were also unaffected by the incidence of radiological and symptomatic ASD(P-value> 0.05). The number of surgical surfaces and the incidence of anterior and posterior longitudinal ligament calcification before surgery also had no statistically significant effect(P-value> 0.05). In the study of the ability of the neck to move in different directions, none of these variables are statistically significant in the two groups with radiological and symptomatic ASD and the non-affected group(P-value> 0.05). Conclusion: According to the findings of this study, this disease is considered to be a multifactorial disease. The incidence of radiological ASD is much higher than symptomatic ASD (80.7% vs. 26.3%) and sex, height and number of fused surfaces are the only factors influencing the incidence of symptomatic ASD and no variable influences radiological ASD.

Keywords: risk factors, anterior neck disectomy and fusion, adjucent segment degeneration, complication

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Authors: I. Boroňová, J.Bernasovská, J. Kľoc, Z. Tomková, E. Petrejčíková, D. Gabriková, S. Mačeková

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Osteoporosis is a complex health disease characterized by low bone mineral density, which is determined by an interaction of genetics with metabolic and environmental factors. Current research in genetics of osteoporosis is focused on identification of responsible genes and polymorphisms. TNFRSF11B gene plays a key role in bone remodeling. The aim of this study was to investigate the genotype and allele distribution of A163G (rs3102735) osteoprotegerin gene promoter and G1181C (rs2073618) osteoprotegerin first exon polymorphisms in the group of 180 unrelated postmenopausal women with diagnosed osteoporosis and 180 normal controls. Genomic DNA was isolated from peripheral blood leukocytes using standard methodology. Genotyping for presence of different polymorphisms was performed using the Custom Taqman®SNP Genotyping assays. Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was tested for each SNP in the groups of participants using the chi-square (χ2) test. The distribution of investigated genotypes in the group of patients with osteoporosis were as follows: AA (66.7%), AG (32.2%), GG (1.1%) for A163G polymorphism; GG (19.4%), CG (44.4%), CC (36.1%) for G1181C polymorphism. The distribution of genotypes in normal controls were follows: AA (71.1%), AG (26.1%), GG (2.8%) for A163G polymorphism; GG (22.2%), CG (48.9%), CC (28.9%) for G1181C polymorphism. In A163G polymorphism the variant G allele was more common among patients with osteoporosis: 17.2% versus 15.8% in normal controls. Also, in G1181C polymorphism the phenomenon of more frequent occurrence of C allele in the group of patients with osteoporosis was observed (58.3% versus 53.3%). Genotype and allele distributions showed no significant differences (A163G: χ2=0.270, p=0.605; χ2=0.250, p=0.616; G1181C: χ2= 1.730, p=0.188; χ2=1.820, p=0.177). Our results represents an initial study, further studies of more numerous file and associations studies will be carried out. Knowing the distribution of genotypes is important for assessing the impact of these polymorphisms on various parameters associated with osteoporosis. Screening for identification of “at-risk” women likely to develop osteoporosis and initiating subsequent early intervention appears to be most effective strategy to substantially reduce the risks of osteoporosis.

Keywords: osteoporosis, real-time PCR method, SNP polymorphisms

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Authors: Abdulwali H. Aldahmash, Naem M. Alamri

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The purpose of this study was to analyze Saudi Arabian science and mathematics teachers’ attitudes toward integrating STEM in teaching before and after they participated in a professional development workshop focused on STEM integration in a specific middle school science and mathematics unit. The participants were 48 Saudi Arabian science and mathematics teachers who participated in a three-day workshop held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The research method was a pretest-posttest group design. The primary data source was the instrument for teachers' attitudes toward teaching integrated STEM. The results indicate that Saudi Arabian science and mathematics teachers’ perceptions of difficulties decreased due to their participation in the professional development workshop on integrated STEM. Meanwhile, the teachers' self-efficacy improved following their participation in the STEM professional development (PD) workshop. However, no perceived effect was found for the teachers' perceptions of the relevance of or their anxiety about or enjoyment of integrated STEM teaching due to their participation in the three-day PD workshop.

Keywords: STEM integration, attitude toward STEM, STEM workshop, professional development

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Authors: Jeff Chak-Fu Wong, Tony Chun Yin Yip

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The transition from secondary school to university seems exciting for many first-year students but can be more challenging than expected. Enabling instructors to know students’ learning habits and styles enhances their understanding of the students’ learning backgrounds, allows teachers to provide better support for their students, and has therefore high potential to improve teaching quality and learning, especially in any mathematics-related courses. The aim of this research is to collect students’ data using online surveys, to analyze students’ factors using learning analytics and educational data mining and to discover the characteristics of the students at risk of falling behind in their studies based on students’ previous academic backgrounds and collected data. In this paper, we use correlation-based distance methods and mutual information for measuring student factor relationships. We then develop a factor network using the Minimum Spanning Tree method and consider further study for analyzing the topological properties of these networks using social network analysis tools. Under the framework of mutual information, two graph-based feature filtering methods, i.e., unsupervised and supervised infinite feature selection algorithms, are used to analyze the results for students’ data to rank and select the appropriate subsets of features and yield effective results in identifying the factors affecting students at risk of failing. This discovered knowledge may help students as well as instructors enhance educational quality by finding out possible under-performers at the beginning of the first semester and applying more special attention to them in order to help in their learning process and improve their learning outcomes.

Keywords: students' academic performance, correlation-based distance method, social network analysis, feature selection, graph-based feature filtering method

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Authors: Somsak Klaysung

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This study aims to investigate the comparison of brands equity between Samsung and Apple from students of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The research method will using quantitative research, data was collected by questionnaires distributed to communication of arts students in the faculty of management science of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University for 100 samples by purposive sampling method. Data was analyzed by descriptive statistic including percentage, mean, standard deviation and inferential statistic is t-test for hypothesis testing. The results showed that brands equity between Apple and Samsung brand have the ability to recognize brand from the customer by perceived value of the uniqueness of brand and recall when in a situation that must be purchased (Salience), which is the lowest level in branding and consumers can recognize the capacity of the product (Judgment) and opinions about the quality and reliability when it comes to mobile phones Apple and Samsung brand are not different.

Keywords: Apple and Samsung brand, brand equity, judgment, performance, resonance, salience

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Authors: Opara Monica Onyinyechi, Ahmad Iqmer Nashriq Mohd Nazan, Suriani Ismail

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Introduction: Global estimates of malaria indicate that at least 3.3 billion people are at risk of being infected with malaria and 1.2 billion are at high risk. The review investigates the effectiveness of health education strategies to increase the level of malaria knowledge and ITN ownership among the populations of sub-Sahara African countries. Methods: A literature search was conducted using Science direct, CINAHL, PubMed, Prisma, Pico, Cochrane library and PsycINFO databases to retrieve articles published between 2000 until 2020. Eleven studies that reported on malaria prevention and intervention using health education strategies conducted in sub-Saharan Africa were included in the final review. Results: Four studies used educational interventions to teach appropriate ITN strategies and promote ITN usage. Two others focused on improving knowledge of malaria transmission, prevention, treatment, and its signs and symptoms. The remaining five studies assessed both ITN use and malaria knowledge. Of these, 10 were eligible for meta-analysis. On average, health education interventions significantly increase the odds of a person in the intervention group to report better malaria knowledge (odds ratio 1.30, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.70, P= 0.05) and higher ITN ownership (odds ratio 1.53, 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.29, P= 0.004) compared to those in the control group. The odds of ITN ownership also substantially increases when the intervention was based on a theory or model (odds ratio 5.27, 95% CI: 3.24 to 8.58, P= 0.05). Conclusion: Our review highlights the various health education strategies used in sub-Saharan Africa to curb malaria over the past two decades. Meta-analysis findings show that health education intervention is moderately effective in improving malaria knowledge and ITN ownership and has contributed to the effort of global malaria strategy.

Keywords: malaria, health education, insecticide treated nets, sub-Saharan Africa, meta-analysis

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Authors: Ali Kassem, Yhea Kishik, Ali Hassan, Mohamed Abdelwahab

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Introduction: Accelerated coronary and peripheral vascular atherosclerosis is one of the most common and chronic complications of diabetes mellitus. A recent aspect of coronary artery disease in this condition is its silent nature. The aim of the work: Detection of the prevalence of silent myocardial ischemia (SMI) in Upper Egypt type 2 diabetic males and to select male diabetic population who should be screened for SMI. Patients and methods: 100 type 2 diabetic male patients with a negative history of angina or anginal equivalent symptoms and 30 healthy control were included. Full medical history and thorough clinical examination were done for all participants. Fasting and post prandial blood glucose level, lipid profile, (HbA1c), microalbuminuria, and C-reactive protein were done for all participants Resting ECG, trans-thoracic echocardiography, treadmill exercise ECG, myocardial perfusion imaging were done for all participants and patients positive for one or more NITs were subjected for coronary angiography. Results Twenty nine patients (29%) were positive for one or more NITs in the patients group compared to only one case (3.3%) in the controls. After coronary angiography, 20 patients were positive for significant coronary artery stenosis in the patients group, while it was refused to be done by the patient in the controls. There were statistical significant difference between the two groups regarding, hypertension, dyslipidemia and obesity, family history of DM and IHD with higher levels of microalbuminuria, C-reactive protein, total lipids in patient group versus controls According to coronary angiography, patients were subdivided into two subgroups, 20 positive for SMI (positive for coronary angiography) and 80 negative for SMI (negative for coronary angiography). No statistical difference regarding family history of DM and type of diabetic therapy was found between the two subgroups. Yet, smoking, hypertension, obesity, dyslipidemia and family history of IHD were significantly higher in diabetics positive versus those negative for SMI. 90% of patients in subgroup positive for SMI had two or more cardiac risk factors while only two patients had one cardiac risk factor (10%). Uncontrolled DM was detected more in patients positive for SMI. Diabetic complications were more prevalent in patients positive for SMI versus those negative for SMI. Most of the patients positive for SMI have DM more than 5 years duration. Resting ECG and resting Echo detected only 6 and 11 cases, respectively, of the 20 positive cases in group positive for SMI compared to treadmill exercise ECG and myocardial perfusion imaging that detected 16 and 18 cases respectively, Conclusion: Type 2 diabetic male patients should be screened for detection of SMI when aged above 50 years old, diabetes duration is more than 5 years, presence of two or more cardiac risk factors and/or patients suffering from one or more of the chronic diabetic complications. CRP, is an important parameter for selection of type 2 diabetic male patients who should be screened for SMI. Non invasive cardiac tests are reliable for screening of SMI in these patients in our locality.

Keywords: C-reactive protein, Silent myocardial ischemia, Stress tests, type 2 DM

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Authors: A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

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The change in orbit evolution between collocated satellites (X, Y) inside +/-0.09 ° E/W and +/- 0.07 ° N/S cluster, after one of these satellites is placed in an inclined orbit (satellite X) and the effect of this change in the collocation safety inside the cluster window has been studied and evaluated. Several collocation scenarios had been studied in order to adjust the location of both satellites inside their cluster to maximize the separation between them and safe the mission.

Keywords: satellite, GEO, collocation, risk assessment

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Authors: Warda Jabeen, Romaisa Shamim Khan, Osama Shakeel, Ahmed Faraz Bhatti, Raza Hussain

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Background: The worldwide incidence of cutaneous melanoma (CM) has been on the rise over the past few decades. Primary prevention and early treatment remain the focus of management to reduce the burden of disease. This entails identification of risk factors to prompt early diagnosis. In Pakistan, there is a scarcity of clinico-pathological data relating to cutaneous malignant melanoma. Objective: The purpose of this study was to analyze the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients presenting with cutaneous malignant melanoma in Pakistan, and to compare the results with other studies. Method: Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre is currently the only dedicated cancer hospital in the country, accepting patients from all over Pakistan. Majority of the patients, however, belong to the northern half of the country. From the recorded data of the hospital, all cutaneous melanoma cases were identified and evaluated. Results: Between 1997 and 2017, a total of 169 cutaneous melanoma patients were registered at Shaukat Khanum. Mean age was 47.5 years. The highest incidence of melanoma was seen in the age group 40-59 years (n=69, 40.8%). Most commonly reported clinical subtype was unspecified melanoma (n=154, 91%). Amongst those in which T stage was reported, the most frequently observed T-stage at presentation was T4 (n=23, 13.6%). With regards to body distribution, in our study CM was seen most commonly in the lower limb including the hip. The yearly incidence of melanoma has increased/remained stable from 2007 to 2017. Conclusion: cutaneous malignant melanoma is a fairly common disease in Pakistan. Patients tend to present at a more advanced stage as compared to patients in developed countries. Identification of risk factors and tumor characteristics is therefore of paramount importance to deal with these patients.

Keywords: epidemiology of cutaneous malignant melanoma, cutaneous malignant melanoma, Pakistan, skin cancer

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Authors: L. Freeman, D. Bax, V. K. Sapong

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Community-based, preventative approaches to violent extremism may be effective and yet remain an underutilised method. In a realm where security approaches dominate, with the focus on countering violence extremism and combatting radicalisation, community resilience programming remains sparse. This paper will present a survey tool that aims to measure the risk and protective factors that can lead to violent extremism in Mozambique and Tanzania. Conducted in four districts in the Cabo Delgado region of Mozambique and one district in Pwani, Tanzania, the survey uses a combination of BRAVE-14, Afrocentric and context-specific questions in order to more fully understand community resilience opportunities and challenges in preventing and countering violent extremism. Developed in Australia and Canada to measure radicalisation risks in individuals and communities, BRAVE-14 is a tool not yet applied in the African continent. Given the emerging threat of Islamic extremism in Northern Mozambique and Eastern Tanzania, which both experience a combination of socio-political exclusion, resource marginalisation and religious/ideological motivations, the development of the survey is timely and fills a much-needed information gap in these regions. Not only have these Islamist groups succeeded in tapping into the grievances of communities by radicalising and recruiting individuals, but their presence in these regions has been characterised by extreme forms of violence, leaving isolated communities vulnerable to attack. The expected result of these findings will facilitate the contextualisation and comparison of the protective and risk factors that inhibit or promote the radicalisation of the youth in these communities. In identifying sources of resilience and vulnerability, this study emphasises the implementation of context-specific intervention programming and provides a strong research tool for understanding youth and community resilience to violent extremism.

Keywords: community resilience, Mozambique, preventing violent extremism, radicalisation, Tanzania

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Authors: Azza A. Ali, Hebatalla I. Ahmed, Asmaa Abdelaty

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Background: Manganese (Mn) is a naturally occurring element. Exposure to high levels of Mn causes neurotoxic effects and represents an environmental risk factor. Mn neurotoxicity is poorly understood but changing of AChE activity, monoamines and oxidative stress has been established. Bisphenol A (BPA) is a synthetic compound widely used in the production of polycarbonate plastics. There is considerable debate about whether its exposure represents an environmental risk. Caffeine is one of the major contributors to the dietary antioxidants which prevent oxidative damage and may reduce the risk of chronic neurodegenerative diseases. Epigallocatechin-3-gallate is another major component of green tea and has known interactions with caffeine. It also has health-promoting effects in CNS. Objective: To evaluate the potential protective effects of Caffeine and/or EGCG against Mn-induced neurotoxicity either alone or in the presence of BPA in rats. Methods: Seven groups of rats were used and received daily for 5 weeks MnCl2.4H2O (10 mg/kg, IP) except the control group which received saline, corn oil and distilled H2O. Mn was injected either alone or in combination with each of the following: BPA (50 mg/kg, PO), caffeine (10 mg/kg, PO), EGCG (5 mg/kg, IP), caffeine + EGCG and BPA +caffeine +EGCG. All rats were examined in five behavioral tests (grid, bar, swimming, open field and Y- maze tests). Biochemical changes in monoamines, caspase-3, PGE2, GSK-3B, glutamate, acetyl cholinesterase and oxidative parameters, as well as histopathological changes in the brain, were also evaluated for all groups. Results: Mn significantly increased MDA and nitrite content as well as caspase-3, GSK-3B, PGE2 and glutamate levels while significantly decreased TAC and SOD as well as cholinesterase in the striatum. It also decreased DA, NE and 5-HT levels in the striatum and frontal cortex. BPA together with Mn enhanced oxidative stress generation induced by Mn while increased monoamine content that was decreased by Mn in rat striatum. BPA abolished neuronal degeneration induced by Mn in the hippocampus but not in the substantia nigra, striatum and cerebral cortex. Behavioral examinations showed that caffeine and EGCG co-administration had more pronounced protective effect against Mn-induced neurotoxicity than each one alone. EGCG alone or in combination with caffeine prevented neuronal degeneration in the substantia nigra, striatum, hippocampus and cerebral cortex induced by Mn while caffeine alone prevented neuronal degeneration in the substantia nigra and striatum but still showed some nuclear pyknosis in cerebral cortex and hippocampus. The marked protection of caffeine and EGCG co-administration also confirmed by the significant increase in TAC, SOD, ACHE, DA, NE and 5-HT as well as the decrease in MDA, nitrite, caspase-3, PGE2, GSK-3B, the glutamic acid in the striatum. Conclusion: Neuronal degeneration induced by Mn showed some inhibition with BPA exposure despite the enhancement in oxidative stress generation. Co-administration of EGCG and caffeine can protect against neuronal degeneration induced by Mn and improve behavioral deficits associated with its neurotoxicity. The protective effect of EGCG was more pronounced than that of caffeine even with BPA co-exposure.

Keywords: manganese, bisphenol a, caffeine, epigallocatechin-3-gallate, neurotoxicity, behavioral tests, rats

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Authors: Ashwin Belle, Bryce Benson, Mark Salamango, Fadi Islim, Rodney Daniels, Kevin Ward

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A reliable, real-time, and non-invasive system that can identify patients at risk for hemodynamic instability is needed to aid clinicians in their efforts to anticipate patient deterioration and initiate early interventions. The purpose of this pilot study was to explore the clinical capabilities of a real-time analytic from a single lead of an electrocardiograph to correctly distinguish between rapid response team (RRT) activations due to hemodynamic (H-RRT) and non-hemodynamic (NH-RRT) causes, as well as predict H-RRT cases with actionable lead times. The study consisted of a single center, retrospective cohort of 21 patients with RRT activations from step-down and telemetry units. Through electronic health record review and blinded to the analytic’s output, each patient was categorized by clinicians into H-RRT and NH-RRT cases. The analytic output and the categorization were compared. The prediction lead time prior to the RRT call was calculated. The analytic correctly distinguished between H-RRT and NH-RRT cases with 100% accuracy, demonstrating 100% positive and negative predictive values, and 100% sensitivity and specificity. In H-RRT cases, the analytic detected hemodynamic deterioration with a median lead time of 9.5 hours prior to the RRT call (range 14 minutes to 52 hours). The study demonstrates that an electrocardiogram (ECG) based analytic has the potential for providing clinical decision and monitoring support for caregivers to identify at risk patients within a clinically relevant timeframe allowing for increased vigilance and early interventional support to reduce the chances of continued patient deterioration.

Keywords: critical care, early warning systems, emergency medicine, heart rate variability, hemodynamic instability, rapid response team

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Authors: R. Christopher, C. Brandt, N. Damons

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Background: The sequence of prevention model states that by constant assessment of injury, injury mechanisms and risk factors are identified, highlighting that collecting and recording of data is a core approach for preventing injuries. Several screening tools are available for use in the clinical setting. These screening techniques only recently received research attention, hence there is a dearth of inconsistent and controversial data regarding their applicability, validity, and reliability. Several systematic reviews related to common soccer injuries have been conducted; however, none of them addressed the screening tools for common soccer injuries. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to conduct a review of screening tools and their accuracy for common injuries in soccer. Methods: A systematic scoping review was performed based on the Joanna Briggs Institute procedure for conducting systematic reviews. Databases such as SPORT Discus, Cinahl, Medline, Science Direct, PubMed, and grey literature were used to access suitable studies. Some of the key search terms included: injury screening, screening, screening tool accuracy, injury prevalence, injury prediction, accuracy, validity, specificity, reliability, sensitivity. All types of English studies dating back to the year 2000 were included. Two blind independent reviewers selected and appraised articles on a 9-point scale for inclusion as well as for the risk of bias with the ACROBAT-NRSI tool. Data were extracted and summarized in tables. Plot data analysis was done, and sensitivity and specificity were analyzed with their respective 95% confidence intervals. I² statistic was used to determine the proportion of variation across studies. Results: The initial search yielded 95 studies, of which 21 were duplicates, and 54 excluded. A total of 10 observational studies were included for the analysis: 3 studies were analysed quantitatively while the remaining 7 were analysed qualitatively. Seven studies were graded low and three studies high risk of bias. Only high methodological studies (score > 9) were included for analysis. The pooled studies investigated tools such as the Functional Movement Screening (FMS™), the Landing Error Scoring System (LESS), the Tuck Jump Assessment, the Soccer Injury Movement Screening (SIMS), and the conventional hamstrings to quadriceps ratio. The accuracy of screening tools was of high reliability, sensitivity and specificity (calculated as ICC 0.68, 95% CI: 52-0.84; and 0.64, 95% CI: 0.61-0.66 respectively; I² = 13.2%, P=0.316). Conclusion: Based on the pooled results from the included studies, the FMS™ has a good inter-rater and intra-rater reliability. FMS™ is a screening tool capable of screening for common soccer injuries, and individual FMS™ scores are a better determinant of performance in comparison with the overall FMS™ score. Although meta-analysis could not be done for all the included screening tools, qualitative analysis also indicated good sensitivity and specificity of the individual tools. Higher levels of evidence are, however, needed for implication in evidence-based practice.

Keywords: accuracy, screening tools, sensitivity, soccer injuries, specificity

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Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

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Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

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Authors: E. Bartkiene, V. Krungleviciute, J. Kucinskiene, R. Antanaitis, A. Kucinskas

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In calves less than 10-day-old, infection commonly cause severe diarrhoea and high mortality. To prevention of calves diseases a common practice is to treat calves with prophylactic antibiotics, in this case the use of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) is promising. Often LAB strains are incubated in comercial de Man-Rogosa-Sharpe (MRS) medium, the culture are centrifuged, the cells are washing with sterile water, and this suspension is used as a starter culture for animal health care. Juice of potatoe tubers is industrial wastes, wich may constitute a source of digestible nutrients for microorganisms. In our study the ability of LAB to utilize potatoe tubers juice in cell synthesis without external nutrient supplement was investigated, and the influence of multiplied LAB on calves blood parameters was evaluated. Calves were selected based on the analogy principle (treatment group (n=6), control group (n=8)). For the treatment group 14 days was given a 50 ml of fermented potatoe tubers juice containing 9.6 log10 cfu/ml of LAB. Blood parameters (gas and biochemical) were assessed by use of an auto-analyzers (Hitachi 705 and EPOC). Before the experiment, blood pH of treatment group calves was 7.33, control – 7.36, whereas, after 14 days, 7.28 and 7.36, respectively. Calves blood pH in the treatment group remained stable over the all experiment period. Concentration of PCO2 in control calves group blood increased from 63.95 to 70.93, whereas, in the treatment group decreased from 63.08 to 60.71. Concentration of lactate in the treatment group decreased from 3.20 mmol/l to 2.64 mmol/l, whereas, in control - increased from 3.95 mmol/l to 4.29 mmol/l. Concentration of AST in the control calves group increased from 50.18 IU/L to 58.9 IU/L, whereas, in treatment group decreased from 49.82 IU/L to 33.1 IU/L. We conclude that the 50 ml of fermented potatoe tubers juice containing 9.6 log10 cfu/ml of LAB per day, by using 14 days, reduced risk of developing acidosis (stabilizes blood pH (p < 0.05)), reduces lactates and PCO2 concentration (p < 0.05) and risk of liver lesions (reduces AST concentration (p < 0.005)) in blood of calves.

Keywords: alternative substrate, blood parameters, calves, lactic acid bacteria

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