Search results for: statistical approaches

Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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Authors: Tahereh Yavari, Sara Norozi Far

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The aim of this study was to compare psychological well-being, hope, and health concerns in leukemia patients before and after receiving stem cells. The statistical population of the present study was made up of leukemia patients in Tehran, and the research sample was among the patients referred to the Bone Marrow Transplant Center of Shariati Hospital in Tehran, and they were placed in two experimental and control groups (15 people in each group), which were selected by purposive sampling method. In order to collect the data for the research, three psychological well-being questionnaires were used by Riff (2002), Schneider's Hope Scale (SHS), and Schneider's Health Concern Questionnaire (HCQ). In order to analyze the data in this research, according to the "pre-test-post-test design with a control group," covariance analysis was used. Based on the research findings, it was concluded that receiving stem cells increases hope and psychological well-being in leukemia patients and significantly reduces health concerns.

Keywords: psychological well-being, hope, health concerns, blood cancer, stem cells

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Deniz Sahin

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Growing concern for the presence and contamination of heavy metals in our water supplies has steadily increased over the last few years. A number of specialized technologies including precipitation, coagulation/flocculation, ion exchange, cementation, electrochemical operations, have been developed for the removal of heavy metals from wastewater. However, these technologies have many limitations in the application, such as high cost, low separation efficiency, Recently, numerous approaches have been investigated to overcome these difficulties and membrane filtration, advanced oxidation technologies (AOPs), and UV irradiation etc. are sufficiently developed to be considered as alternative treatments. Many factors come into play when selecting wastewater treatment technology, such as type of wastewater, operating conditions, economics etc. This study describes these various treatment technologies employed for heavy metal removal. Advantages and disadvantages of these technologies are also compared to highlight their current limitations and future research needs. For example, we investigated the applicability of the ultrafiltration technology for treating of heavy metal ions (e.g., Cu(II), Pb(II), Cd(II), Zn(II)) from synthetic wastewater solutions. Results shown that complete removal of metal ions, could be achieved.

Keywords: heavy metal, treatment methodologies, water, water treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Magdaléna Náplavová, Tomáš Ludík, Petr Hrůza, František Božek

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The use of IT equipment has become a part of every day. However, each device that is part of cyberspace should be secured against unauthorized use. It is very important to know the basics of these security devices, but also the basics of safe conduct their owners. This information should be part of every curriculum computer science education in primary and secondary schools. Therefore, the work focuses on the education of pupils in primary and secondary schools on the Internet. Analysis of the current state describes approaches to the education of pupils in security issues on the Internet. The paper presents a questionnaire-based survey which was carried out in the Czech Republic, whose task was to ascertain the level of opinion pupils in primary and secondary schools on the issue of communication in social networks. The research showed that awareness of socio-pathological phenomena on the Internet environment is very low. Based on the results it was proposed appropriate ways of teaching to this issue and its inclusion a proposal of curriculum for primary and secondary schools.

Keywords: information security, cyber space, general awareness, questionnaire, socio-pathological phenomena, educational system

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Authors: Sotiris Papantonopoulos, Marianna Bortziou

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This study aimed at developing a new package of saffron using emotional design and specifically the Kansei Engineering method. Kansei Engineering is a proactive product development methodology, which aims to improve the product development process and to translate consumers' feelings and image of a product into design elements. A survey was conducted with two major purposes: (1) to determine the target group of saffron use and to collect information about the adequacy of the product’s promotion and the importance of its packaging, (2) to collect the most important properties of a package according to consumers and to evaluate the existing saffron packages according to these properties (benchmarking). The interaction with the general public conducted by the distribution of online questionnaires and personal interviews as well as the statistical analysis of the results were performed using the SPSS software. The results of the survey were used in all stages of Kansei Engineering. Based on the results, a new saffron package was designed by using various designing and image processing software. This improved package is expected to achieve a better promotion and increased sales of the product.

Keywords: design, emotional design, Kansei Engineering, packaging, saffron

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Latifah Putti Tiananda, Sasti Khoirunnisa, Taniadiana Yapwito, Jessica Noviena

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Innovations are often met with two responses, acceptance or rejection. In the past few years, Indonesia is experiencing a revolution of transportation service, which utilizes online platform for its operation. Such improvement is welcomed by consumers and challenged by conventional or ‘non-online’ transportation providers simultaneously. Conflicts arise as the existence of this online transportation mode results in declining income of non-online transportation workers. Physical confrontations and demonstrations demand policing from central authority. However, the obscurity of legal measures from the government persists the social instability. Bandung, a city in West Java with the highest rate of online transportation usage, has recently issued a recommendation withholding the operation of online transportation services to maintain peace and order. Thus, this paper seeks to elaborate the social unrest between the two contesting transportation actors in Bandung and explore community-based approaches to solve this problem. Using qualitative research method, this paper will also feature in-depth interviews with directly involved sources from Bandung.

Keywords: Bandung, market competition, online transportation services, social unrest

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Authors: Khaled A. Madi, Rema A. Mousbahi, Mostafa B. Abuitbel, Abdualhakim O. Nagi

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Antenna perhaps is the most important part of any communication system, it determines the overall efficiency and the direction of radiation of the system. Antennas vary in shape and size on a very wide range. For fast moving vehicles, the antenna should offer as litter aerodynamic resistance as possible. Slot antenna is best suited for this purpose. It offers very little aerodynamic resistance, compact, easy to feed and fabricate. This work presented in this paper deals with the investigation of a half wave slot antenna. The antenna has been studied, analyzed, designed, simulated, fabrication, and tested at the X-band. The field of antenna study is an extremely vast one, and to grasp the fundamentals, two pronged approaches have been used, and the focus was on the fabrication and testing of a slot waveguide directional antenna. Focuses on the design and simulation of slot antennas with an emphasis on optimization of a 9.1 GHz a rectangular waveguide have been used to feed slot antenna. A microwave fed slot antenna used in the communication lab was also simulated. The results have been presented and compared with the expected values, where a good agreement was achieved between the simulation and experimental results.

Keywords: microwave, slot antenna, simulation, fabrication

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Authors: Zilin Zhang

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Agent-based simulation has become a popular method of exploring the behavior of all kinds of urban systems. The city clearly is viewed as such a system. Many urban evolution processes, such as the development or the transaction of a piece of land, can be modeled with a set of rules. Such modeling approaches can be used to gain insight into urban-development and land market transactions in the real world. Our work contributes to such type of research by modeling the transactions of lands in a city and its surrounding suburbs. By replicating the demand and supply needs in the land market, we are able to demonstrate the different transaction patterns in three types of residential areas - downtown, city-suburban, and further suburban areas. In addition, we are also able to compare the vital roles of different activation conditions play in generating the various transaction patterns of the land market at the macro level. We use this simulation to loosely test our hypotheses about the nature of activation regimes by the replication of the Zi traders’ model. In the end, we hope our analytical results can be useful for city planners and policymakers to develop rational city plans and policies for shaping sustainable urban development.

Keywords: simulation, agent-based modeling, housing market, city

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Authors: Sarah M. Bolger

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There is a clear recognition that humanitarian and development workers are operating more and more frequently in situations of protracted crises, with conflict and violence undermining long-term development efforts. First coined at the World Humanitarian Summit in 2016, the humanitarian-development-peacebuilding nexus – or 'Triple Nexus' - seeks to promote greater cooperation and policy and program coherence amongst organizations working within and across the nexus. However, despite the clear need for such an approach, the Triple Nexus has failed to gain much traction. This is largely due to the lack of conceptual clarity for actors on the ground and the disconnect between the theory of the Triple Nexus and what that means in practice. This paper seeks to identify the key challenges in shifting from the conceptual definition of the Triple Nexus and what that can look like, particularly for multi-mandated organizations, to the operationalization of the Triple Nexus approach. It adopts a case study approach, examining a selection of organizations and programs and their approaches to the Triple Nexus in order to extract key challenges and lessons learned. Finally, key recommendations are provided on how these challenges can be overcome, allowing for the operationalization of the Triple Nexus and ultimately for a more integrated and sustainable approach to humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding work.

Keywords: development, humanitarian, peacebuilding, triple nexus

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Authors: Bashar Albaalbaki, Roger E. Khayat

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This work is a comparative study on the effect of Delaunay triangulation algorithms on discretization error for conduction-convection conservation problems. A structured triangulation and many unstructured Delaunay triangulations using three popular algorithms for node placement strategies are used. The numerical method employed is the vertex-centered finite volume method. It is found that when the computational domain can be meshed using a structured triangulation, the discretization error is lower for structured triangulations compared to unstructured ones for only low Peclet number values, i.e. when conduction is dominant. However, as the Peclet number is increased and convection becomes more significant, the unstructured triangulations reduce the discretization error. Also, no statistical correlation between triangulation angle extremums and the discretization error is found using 200 samples of randomly generated Delaunay and non-Delaunay triangulations. Thus, the angle extremums cannot be an indicator of the discretization error on their own and need to be combined with other triangulation quality measures, which is the subject of further studies.

Keywords: conduction-convection problems, Delaunay triangulation, discretization error, finite volume method

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Authors: Usman Tunde Saadu

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The study examined gender differences in emotional adjustment of fresh students in Kwara State University, Malete. The descriptive survey design was adopted for the study, and 300 fresh students were randomly selected across the six colleges in the University. An adapted Questionnaire from Nadia (2012) was used to collect data from respondents on emotional adjustment. One research question was answered with a descriptive statistic of frequency count and percentage, and one hypothesis was tested with t-test statistical analysis at 0.05 level of significance. Findings of the study revealed that fresh students have a low level of emotional adjustment, and male students were found to have more emotional adjustment than female. Based on these findings, the researcher, therefore, concluded that fresh students have a low level of emotional adjustment. Based on these findings, the researcher recommended among others that emotional adjustment skills should be introduced into the secondary school curriculum to give students the opportunity to learn about these skills before they are being admitted into University.

Keywords: emotional adjustment, fresh students, gender differences, students

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Authors: Majid Mohammadi, Mohammad Yosef Zadeh, Vahid Naderi Darshori

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The main purpose of this research is concreting of satisfaction literature for obtain index with online content in carmaker industry. The study measures customer satisfaction of online and collect from similar studies with reference to a model of online satisfaction, they are attempting to complete. Statistical communities of research are online customers' carmaker Iran Khodro has been buying the company's products in the last six months. One of the innovative measures in this study is that, customer reviews are obtained through an Internet site. Reliability of the data collected in this study, the Cronbach's alpha coefficient was approved. The coefficient of 0.828 was calculated for the questionnaire. To test the hypothesis, the Pearson correlation coefficient was used. To ensure the correctness of initial theoretical model, we used regression analyzes and structural equation weight and finally, the results obtained with little change to the basic model of research, are improved and completed. At last obtain the perceived value has most direct effect on online car customers satisfaction.

Keywords: customer satisfaction, online satisfaction, online customer, car

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Authors: Elham Rezaee, Sayyed Abbas Tabatabai

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Dual inhibition of COX-2 and sEH enzymes represents one of the distinct pharmaceutical approaches for the treatment of inflammation, pain, cancers, and other diseases. The discovery of these inhibitors for treatment is a great deal of attention because of some advantages such as increased efficacy, a promising safety profile, ease of formulation, and better target engagement. In this research, based on the structure-activity relationship of COX-2 and sEH inhibitors, some amide derivatives with oxadiazole and dihydropyrimidinone rings against sEH and COX-2 enzymes were developed. The designed compounds showed high affinity to the active site of both enzymes in docking studies and were synthesized in good yield and characterized by IR, Mass, 1HNMR, and 13CNMR. All of the novel compounds exhibited considerable in-vitro sEH and COX-2 inhibitory activities in comparison with 12-(3-Adamantan-1-yl-ureido)- dodecanoic acid and celecoxib (a potent urea-based sEH inhibitor and selective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug, respectively). Ethyl 6-methyl-4-(4-(4-(methylsulfonyl)benzamido)phenyl)-2-oxo-1,2,3,4-tetrahydropyrimidine-5-carboxylate was found to be the most selective COX-2 inhibitor (COX-2/COX-1 ratio: 683) with IC50 value of 2.1 nM targeting sEH enzyme.

Keywords: COX-2, dual inhibitors, sEH, synthesis

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Authors: E. Marušić-Paloka, I. Pažanin, M. Prša

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Subject of this study is the stationary heat conduction problem through a pipe filled with incompressible viscous fluid. In previous work, we observed the existence and uniqueness theorems for the corresponding boundary-value problem and within we have taken into account the effects of the pipe's dilatation due to the temperature of the fluid inside of the pipe. The main difficulty comes from the fact that flow domain changes depending on the solution of the observed heat equation leading to a non-standard coupled governing problem. The goal of this work is to find solution estimate since the exact solution of the studied problem is not possible to determine. We use an asymptotic expansion in order of a small parameter which is presented as a heat expansion coefficient of the pipe's material. Furthermore, an error estimate is provided for the mentioned asymptotic approximation of the solution for inner area of the pipe. Close to the boundary, problem becomes more complex so different approaches are observed, mainly Theory of Perturbations and Separations of Variables. In view of that, error estimate for the whole approximation will be provided with additional software simulations of gotten situation.

Keywords: asymptotic analysis, dilated pipe, error estimate, heat conduction

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Authors: Timothy Whitehill

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This paper presents an innovative chat-based focus group method for collecting qualitative data to construct a cause-and-effect analysis in business research. This method was developed in response to the research and data collection challenges faced by the Covid-19 outbreak in the United Kingdom during 2020-21. This paper discusses the methodological approaches and builds a contemporary argument for its effectiveness in exploring cause-and-effect relationships in the context of focus group research, systems thinking and problem structuring methods. The pilot for this method was conducted between October 2020 and March 2021 and collected more than 7,000 words of chat-based data which was used to construct a consensus drawn cause-and-effect analysis. This method was developed in support of an ongoing Doctorate in Business Administration (DBA) thesis, which is using Design Science Research methodology to operationalize organisational resilience in UK construction sector firms.

Keywords: cause-and-effect analysis, focus group research, problem structuring methods, qualitative research, systems thinking

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Authors: David Chapola Nggada

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This is a survey designed to find out the impact of the ongoing insurgency in north eastern Nigeria on educational attainment. It is a mixture of both qualitative and quantitative research work on a sample size of 71 secondary school students currently displaced from Baga Biu and Monguno areas of Borno State, now residing as internally displaced persons(IDPs) in Gombe and Yola IDP camps. This was done through both semi structured interview and questionnaire administration. Statistical methods used include percentage and cross tables to gain specific insight into different dimensions of what this implies. Two major aspects of the impact covered were impact on individual student and impact on societal development. These two dimensions were measured against national development variables and analyzed against reviewed literature and findings across the globe. A combination of theories from different fields led to a deeper and better insight. The results confirm a significant relationship between educational attainment and the development of the north east region and Nigeria as a whole. Recommendations were made on ways of reintegrating this group back to the educational system.

Keywords: education, insurgency, national development, threat

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Dhaladhuli Pranavi, Amirtham Rajagopal

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There are various failure modes in ceramic matrix composites; notable ones are fiber breakage, matrix cracking and fiber matrix debonding. Crack nucleation and propagation in microstructure of such composites requires an understanding of interaction of crack with the multiple inclusion heterogeneous system and interfaces. In order to assess structural integrity, the material parameters especially of the interface that governs the crack growth should be determined. In the present work, a nonlocal phase field approach is proposed to model the crack interface interaction in such composites. Nonlocal approaches help in understanding the complex mechanisms of delamination growth and mitigation and operates at a material length scale. The performance of the proposed formulation is illustrated through representative numerical examples. The model proposed is implemented in the framework of the finite element method. Several parametric studies on interface crack interaction are conducted. The proposed model is easy and simple to implement and works very well in modeling fracture in composite systems.

Keywords: composite, interface, nonlocal, phase field

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Authors: Shatirah Akib, Hossein Basser, Hojat Karami, Afshin Jahangirzadeh

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Bridge piers which are constructed in the track of high water rivers cause some variations in the flow patterns. This variation mostly is a result of the changes in river sections. Decreasing the river section, bridge piers significantly impress the flow patterns. Once the flow approaches the piers, the stream lines change their order, causing the appearance of different flow patterns around the bridge piers. New flow patterns are created following the geometry and the other technical characteristics of the piers. One of the most significant consequences of this event is the scour generated around the bridge piers which threatens the safety of the structure. In order to determine the properties of scour holes, to find maximum depth of the scour is an important factor. In this manuscript a numerical simulation of the scour around Marand-Soofian route bridge piers has been carried out via SSIIM 2.0 Software and the amount of maximum scour has been achieved subsequently. Eventually the methods for retrofitting of bridge piers against scours and also the methods for decreasing the amount of scour have been offered.

Keywords: scour, bridge pier, numerical simulation, SSIIM 2.0

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Authors: Ishapathik Das, Sumen Sen, N. Rao Chaganty, Pooja Sengupta

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Dependent multivariate count data occur in several research studies. These data can be modeled by a multivariate Poisson or Negative binomial distribution constructed using copulas. However, when some of the counts are inflated, that is, the number of observations in some cells are much larger than other cells, then the copula based multivariate Poisson (or Negative binomial) distribution may not fit well and it is not an appropriate statistical model for the data. There is a need to modify or adjust the multivariate distribution to account for the inflated frequencies. In this article, we consider the situation where the frequencies of two cells are higher compared to the other cells, and develop a doubly inflated multivariate Poisson distribution function using multivariate Gaussian copula. We also discuss procedures for regression on covariates for the doubly inflated multivariate count data. For illustrating the proposed methodologies, we present a real data containing bivariate count observations with inflations in two cells. Several models and linear predictors with log link functions are considered, and we discuss maximum likelihood estimation to estimate unknown parameters of the models.

Keywords: copula, Gaussian copula, multivariate distributions, inflated distributios

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Mohammad Sadeghi

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The subject matter of this article is the efficiency of current knowledge standard to afford the legal integration regarding criteria and approaches to ISP knowledge standards, to shield ISP and copyright, trademark and other parties’ rights in the online information society. The EU recognizes the knowledge-based liability for intermediaries in the European Directive on Electronic Commerce, but the implication of all parties’ responsibility for combating infringement has been immolated by dominating attention on liability due to the lack of the appropriate legal mechanism to devote each party responsibility. Moreover, there is legal challenge on the applicability of knowledge-based liability on hosting services and information location tools service. The aim of this contribution is to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of ECD knowledge standard through case law with a special emphasis on duty of prevention and constructive knowledge role on internet service providers (ISP s’) to achieve fair balance between all parties rights.

Keywords: internet service providers, liability, copyright infringement, hosting, caching, mere conduit service, notice and takedown, E-commerce Directive

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Authors: Hechmi Saidi, Noureddine Hamdi

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The performance of Decode and Forward (DF) multihop Free Space Optical ( FSO) scheme deploying Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO) configuration under Gamma-Gamma (GG) statistical distribution, that adopts M-ary Pulse Position Modulation (MPPM) coding, is investigated. We have extracted exact and estimated values of Symbol-Error Rates (SERs) respectively. A closed form formula related to the Probability Density Function (PDF) is expressed for our designed system. Thanks to the use of DF multihop MIMO FSO configuration and MPPM signaling, atmospheric turbulence is combatted; hence the transmitted signal quality is improved.

Keywords: free space optical, multiple input multiple output, M-ary pulse position modulation, multihop, decode and forward, symbol error rate, gamma-gamma channel

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Authors: Jarek Krajewski, David Daxberger

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We propose a stress detection method based on an RGB camera using heart rate detection, also known as Photoplethysmography Imaging (PPGI). This technique focuses on the measurement of the small changes in skin colour caused by blood perfusion. A stationary lab setting with simulated video conferences is chosen using constant light conditions and a sampling rate of 30 fps. The ground truth measurement of heart rate is conducted with a common PPG system. The proposed approach for pulse peak detection is based on a machine learning-based approach, applying brute force feature extraction for the prediction of heart rate pulses. The statistical analysis showed good agreement (correlation r = .79, p<0.05) between the reference heart rate system and the proposed method. Based on these findings, the proposed method could provide a reliable, low-cost, and contactless way of measuring HR parameters in daily-life environments.

Keywords: heart rate, PPGI, machine learning, brute force feature extraction

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Authors: Y. Benmalem , A. Abbad, W. Benstaali, T. Lantri

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Density functional theory is used to investigate the.the structural, electronic, and magnetic properties of the cubic anti-perovskites InNNi3 and ZnNNi3. The structure of antiperovskite also called (perovskite-inverse) identical to the perovskite structure of the general formula ABX3, where A is a main group (III–V) element or a metallic element, B is carbon or nitrogen, and X is a transition metal, displays a wide range of interesting physical properties, such as giant magnetoresistance. Elastic and electronic properties were determined using generalized gradient approximation (GGA), and local spin density approximation (LSDA) approaches, ), as implemented in the Wien2k computer package. The results show that the two compounds are strong ductile and satisfy the Born-Huang criteria, so they are mechanically stable at normal conditions. Electronic properties show that the two compounds studied are metallic and non-magnetic. The studies of these compounds have confirmed the effectiveness of the two approximations and the ground-state properties are in good agreement with experimental data and theoretical results available.

Keywords: anti-perovskites, elastic anisotropy, electronic band structure, first-principles calculations

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Authors: Javier Parra-Domínguez, Juan Manuel Corchado

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At present, public efficiency is a concept that intends to maximize return on public investment focus on minimizing the use of resources and maximizing the outputs. The concept takes into account statistical criteria drawn up according to techniques such as DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis). The purpose of the current work is to consider, more precisely, the theoretical application of CBR (Case-Based Reasoning) from economics and computer science, as a preliminary step to improving the efficiency of law enforcement agencies (public sector). With the aim of increasing the efficiency of the public sector, we have entered into a phase whose main objective is the implementation of new technologies. Our main conclusion is that the application of computer techniques, such as CBR, has become key to the efficiency of the public sector, which continues to require economic valuation based on methodologies such as DEA. As a theoretical result and conclusion, the incorporation of CBR systems will reduce the number of inputs and increase, theoretically, the number of outputs generated based on previous computer knowledge.

Keywords: case-based reasoning, knowledge, police, public efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: S. Dey, T. Mukhopadhyay, S. Adhikari

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This paper presents an exhaustive comparative investigation on sampling techniques of polynomial regression model based stochastic natural frequency of composite plates. Both individual and combined variations of input parameters are considered to map the computational time and accuracy of each modelling techniques. The finite element formulation of composites is capable to deal with both correlated and uncorrelated random input variables such as fibre parameters and material properties. The results obtained by Polynomial regression (PR) using different sampling techniques are compared. Depending on the suitability of sampling techniques such as 2k Factorial designs, Central composite design, A-Optimal design, I-Optimal, D-Optimal, Taguchi’s orthogonal array design, Box-Behnken design, Latin hypercube sampling, sobol sequence are illustrated. Statistical analysis of the first three natural frequencies is presented to compare the results and its performance.

Keywords: composite plate, natural frequency, polynomial regression model, sampling technique, uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Phawichsak Prapassornpitaya, Wanida Jinsart

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Daily monitoring PM₁₀ and PM₂.₅ data from 2007 to 2017 were analyzed to provide baseline data for prediction of the air pollution in Bangkok in the period of 2018 -2020. Two statistical models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA) were used to evaluate the trends of pollutions. The prediction concentrations were tested by root means square error (RMSE) and index of agreement (IOA). This evaluation of the traffic PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀ were studied in association with the regulatory control and emission standard changes. The emission factors of particulate matter from diesel vehicles were decreased when applied higher number of euro standard. The trends of ambient air pollutions were expected to decrease. However, the Bangkok smog episode in February 2018 with temperature inversion caused high concentration of PM₂.₅ in the air environment of Bangkok. The impact of traffic pollutants was depended upon the emission sources, temperature variations, and metrological conditions.

Keywords: fine particulate matter, ARIMA, RMSE, Bangkok

Procedia PDF Downloads 270

Authors: Messis A., Adjebli A., Ayeche R., Talbi M., Tighilet K., Louardiane M.

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Cancers are the second cause of death worldwide. Prevalence and incidence of cancers is getting increased by aging and population growth. This study aims to predict and modeling the evolution of breast, Colorectal, Lung, Bladder and Prostate cancers over the period of 2014-2019. In this study, data were analyzed using time series analysis with double exponential smoothing method to forecast the future pattern. To describe and fit the appropriate models, Minitab statistical software version 17 was used. Between 2014 and 2019, the overall trend in the raw number of new cancer cases registered has been increasing over time; the change in observations over time has been increasing. Our forecast model is validated since we have good prediction for the period 2020 and data not available for 2021 and 2022. Time series analysis showed that the double exponential smoothing is an efficient tool to model the future data on the raw number of new cancer cases.

Keywords: cancer, time series, prediction, double exponential smoothing

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Authors: Carlos Alberto Carvalho Castro, Nancy Del Ducca Barbedo, Edmilsom Otoni Côrrea

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With increase the production oil and lines transmission gases that are in ample expansion, the industries medium and great transport they had to adapt itself to supply the demand manufacture in this fabrication segment. In this context, two welding processes have been more extensively used: the GMAW (Gas Metal Arc Welding) and the FCAW (Flux Cored Arc Welding). In this work, welds using these processes were carried out in flat position on ASTM A-36 carbon steel plates in order to make a comparative evaluation between them concerning to mechanical and metallurgical properties. A statistical tool based on technical analysis and design of experiments, DOE, from the Minitab software was adopted. For these analyses, the voltage, current, and welding speed, in both processes, were varied. As a result, it was observed that the welds in both processes have different characteristics in relation to the metallurgical properties and performance, but they present good weldability, satisfactory mechanical strength e developed mathematical models.

Keywords: Flux Cored Arc Welding (FCAW), Gas Metal Arc Welding (GMAW), Design of Experiments (DOE), mathematical models

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Authors: Asma A. Parlin, K. Nakamura, N. Watanabe, T. Komai

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Understanding the effective diffusion of benzene vapor in the soil-atmosphere interface is important as an intrusion of benzene into the atmosphere from the soil is largely driven by diffusion. To analyze the vertical one dimensional effective diffusion of benzene vapor in porous medium with high water content, diffusion experiments were conducted in soil columns using Andosol soil and Toyoura silica sand with different water content; for soil water content was from 0 to 30 wt.% and for sand it was from 0.06 to 10 wt.%. In soil, a linear relation was found between water content and effective diffusion coefficient while the effective diffusion coefficient didn’t change in the sand with increasing water. A numerical transport model following unsteady-state approaches based on Fick’s second law was used to match the required time for a steady state of the gas phase concentration profile of benzene to the experimentally measured concentration profile gas phase in the column. The result highlighted that both the water content and porosity might increase vertical diffusion of benzene vapor in soil.

Keywords: benzene vapor-phase, effective diffusion, subsurface soil medium, unsteady state

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Authors: Gizem Ertürk, Nursena Dinç

Abstract:

The Aegean area has always been an important transit point for migration; however, the establishment of the European Union gave further impetus to the migration phenomenon and increased the significance of the area within this context. The migration waves have been more visible in the area in recent decades, and particularly after the “2015 Migration Crisis,” this issue has been subject to further securitization in the EU. In this conjuncture, the Frontex, which is an agency set up by the EU in 2005 for the purpose of managing and coordinating the border control efforts, has become more functional in the relevant area, but at the same time, have some questionable actions within the context of human rights. This paper problematizes the rationality behind the existence and practices of such a structure and attempts to make a political and legal analysis of the security practices of the European Union against migration within a framework based on the biopolitics approaches of Michel Foucault and Giorgio Agamben. The dataset of this paper, which focuses on the agency in question by taking it as a case, is formed by making use of the existing literature on the EU’s security policies, the relevant official texts of the Union and Frontex reports on migration practices in and around the Aegean Sea.

Keywords: migration, biopolitics, Frontex, security, European union, securitization

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