Search results for: mould growth risk
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 11894

Search results for: mould growth risk

9164 Insulin Resistance in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection: Upper Egypt Experience

Authors: Ali Kassem

Abstract:

Background: In the last few years, factors such as insulin resistance (IR) and hepatic steatosis have been linked to progression of hepatic fibrosis.Patients with chronic liver disease, and cirrhosis in particular, are known to be prone to IR. However, chronic HCV (hepatitis C) infection may induce IR, regardless of the presence of liver cirrhosis. Our aims are to study insulin resistance (IR) assessed by HOMA-IR (Homeostatic Model Assessment Insulin Resistance) as a possible risk factor in disease progression in cirrhotic patients and to evaluate the role of IR in hepatic fibrosis progression. The correlations of HOMA-IR values to laboratory, virological and histopathological parameters of chronic HCV are also examined. Methods: The study included 50 people divided into 30 adult chronic hepatitis C patients diagnosed by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) within previous 6 months and 20 healthy controls. The functional and morphological status of the liver were evaluated by ultrasonography and laboratory investigations including liver function tests and by liver biopsy. Fasting blood glucose and fasting insulin levels were measured and body mass index and insulin resistance were calculated. Patients having HOMA-IR >2.5 were labeled as insulin resistant. Results: Chronic hepatitis C patients with IR showed significantly higher mean values of BMI (body mass index) and fasting insulin than those without IR (P < 0.000). Patients with IR were more likely to have steatosis (p = 0.006), higher necroinflammatory activity (p = 0.05). No significant differences were found between the two groups regarding hepatic fibrosis. Conclusion: HOMA-IR measurement could represent a novel marker to identify the cirrhotic patients at greater risk for the progression of liver disease. As IR is a potentially modifiable risk factor, these findings may have important prognostic and therapeutic implications. Assessment of IR by HOMA-IR and improving insulin sensitivity are recommended in patients with HCV and related chronic liver disease.

Keywords: hepatic fibrosis, hepatitis C virus infection, hepatic steatosis, insulin resistance

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9163 Silicon Nanoparticles and Irradiated Chitosan: Sustainable Elicitors for PS II Activity and Antioxidant Mediated Plant Immunity

Authors: Mohammad Mukarram, M. Masroor A. Khan, Daniel Kurjak, Marek Fabrika

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Lemongrass (Cymbopogon flexuosus (Steud.) Wats) is an aromatic grass with great industrial potential. It is cultivated for its essential oil (EO), which has great economic value due to its numerous medicinal, cosmetic, and culinary applications. The present study had the goal to evaluate whether the combined application of silicon nanoparticles (SiNPs) 150 mg L⁻¹ and irradiated chitosan (ICH) 120 mg L⁻¹ can upgrade lemongrass crop and render enhanced growth and productivity. The analyses of growth and photosynthetic parameters, leaf-nitrogen, and reactive oxygen species metabolism, as well as the content of total essential oil, indicated that combined foliar sprays of SiNPs and ICH can significantly (p≤0.05) trigger a general activation of lemongrass metabolism. Overall, the data indicate that concomitant SiNPs and ICH application elicit lemongrass physiology and defence system, and opens new possibilities for their biotechnological application on other related plant species with agronomic potential.

Keywords: photosynthesis, Cymbopogon, antioxidant metabolism, essential oil, ROS, nanoparticles, polysaccharides

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9162 Study of Nucleation and Growth Processes of Ettringite in Supersaturated Diluted Solutions

Authors: E. Poupelloz, S. Gauffinet

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Ettringite Ca₆Al₂(SO₄)₃(OH)₁₂26H₂O is one of the major hydrates formed during cement hydration. Ettringite forms in Portland cement from the reaction between tricalcium aluminate Ca₃Al₂O₆ and calcium sulfate. Ettringite is also present in calcium sulfoaluminate cement in which it is the major hydrate, formed by the reaction between yeelimite Ca₄(AlO₂)₆SO₄ and calcium sulfate. About the formation of ettringite, numerous results are available in the literature even if some issues are still under discussion. However, almost all published work about ettringite was done on cementitious systems. Yet in cement, hydration reactions are very complex, the result of dissolution-precipitation processes and are submitted to various interactions. Understanding the formation process of a phase alone, here ettringite, is the first step to later understand the much more complex reactions happening in cement. This study is crucial for the comprehension of early cement hydration and physical behavior. Indeed formation of hydrates, in particular, ettringite, will have an influence on the rheological properties of the cement paste and on the need for admixtures. To make progress toward the understanding of existing phenomena, a specific study of nucleation and growth processes of ettringite was conducted. First ettringite nucleation was studied in ionic aqueous solutions, with controlled but different experimental conditions, as different supersaturation degrees (β), different pH or presence of exogenous ions. Through induction time measurements, interfacial ettringite crystals solution energies (γ) were determined. Growth of ettringite in supersaturated solutions was also studied through chain crystallization reactions. Specific BET surface area measurements and Scanning Electron Microscopy observations seemed to prove that growth process is favored over the nucleation process when ettringite crystals are initially present in a solution with a low supersaturation degree. The influence of stirring on ettringite formation was also investigated. Observation was made that intensity and nature of stirring have a high influence on the size of ettringite needles formed. Needle sizes vary from less than 10µm long depending on the stirring to almost 100µm long without any stirring. During all previously mentioned experiments, initially present ions are consumed to form ettringite in such a way that the supersaturation degree with regard to ettringite is decreasing over time. To avoid this phenomenon a device compensating the drop of ion concentrations by adding some more solutions, and therefore always have constant ionic concentrations, was used. This constant β recreates the conditions of the beginning of cement paste hydration, when the dissolution of solid reagents compensates the consumption of ions to form hydrates. This device allowed the determination of the ettringite precipitation rate as a function of the supersaturation degree β. Taking samples at different time during ettringite precipitation and doing BET measurements allowed the determination of the interfacial growth rate of ettringite in m²/s. This work will lead to a better understanding and control of ettringite formation alone and thus during cements hydration. This study will also ultimately define the impact of ettringite formation process on the rheology of cement pastes at early age, which is a crucial parameter from a practical point of view.

Keywords: cement hydration, ettringite, morphology of crystals, nucleation-growth process

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9161 Direct Growth Rates of the Information Model for Traffic at the Service of Sustainable Development of Tourism in Dubrovacko-Neretvanska County 2014-2020

Authors: Vinko Viducic, Jelena Žanic Mikulicic, Maja Racic, Kristina Sladojevic

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The research presented in this paper has been focused on analyzing the impact of traffic on the sustainable development of tourism in Croatia's Dubrovacko-Neretvanska County by the year 2020, based on the figures and trends reported in 2014 and using the relevant variables that characterise the synergy of traffic and tourism in, speaking from the geographic viewpoint, the most problematic county in the Republic of Croatia. The basic hypothesis has been confirmed through scientifically obtained research results, through the quantification of the model's variables and the direct growth rates of the designed model. On the basis of scientific insights into the sustainable development of traffic and tourism in Dubrovacko-Neretvanska County, it is possible to propose a new information model for traffic at the service of the sustainable development of tourism in the County for the period 2014-2020.

Keywords: environment protection, hotel industry, private sector, quantification

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9160 Enhanced Iceberg Information Dissemination for Public and Autonomous Maritime Use

Authors: Ronald Mraz, Gary C. Kessler, Ethan Gold, John G. Cline

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The International Ice Patrol (IIP) continually monitors iceberg activity in the North Atlantic by direct observation using ships, aircraft, and satellite imagery. Daily reports detailing navigational boundaries of icebergs have significantly reduced the risk of iceberg contact. What is currently lacking is formatting this data for automatic transmission and display of iceberg navigational boundaries in commercial navigation equipment. This paper describes the methodology and implementation of a system to format iceberg limit information for dissemination through existing radio network communications. This information will then automatically display on commercial navigation equipment. Additionally, this information is reformatted for Google Earth rendering of iceberg track line limits. Having iceberg limit information automatically available in standard navigation equipment will help support full autonomous operation of sailing vessels.

Keywords: iceberg, iceberg risk, iceberg track lines, AIS messaging, international ice patrol, North American ice service, google earth, autonomous surface vessels

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9159 Calibration and Validation of the Aquacrop Model for Simulating Growth and Yield of Rain-Fed Sesame (Sesamum Indicum L.) Under Different Soil Fertility Levels in the Semi-arid Areas of Tigray, Ethiopia

Authors: Abadi Berhane, Walelign Worku, Berhanu Abrha, Gebre Hadgu

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Sesame is an important oilseed crop in Ethiopia, which is the second most exported agricultural commodity next to coffee. However, there is poor soil fertility management and a research-led farming system for the crop. The AquaCrop model was applied as a decision-support tool, which performs a semi-quantitative approach to simulate the yield of crops under different soil fertility levels. The objective of this experiment was to calibrate and validate the AquaCrop model for simulating the growth and yield of sesame under different nitrogen fertilizer levels and to test the performance of the model as a decision-support tool for improved sesame cultivation in the study area. The experiment was laid out as a randomized complete block design (RCBD) in a factorial arrangement in the 2016, 2017, and 2018 main cropping seasons. In this experiment, four nitrogen fertilizer rates, 0, 23, 46, and 69 Kg/ha nitrogen, and three improved varieties (Setit-1, Setit-2, and Humera-1). In the meantime, growth, yield, and yield components of sesame were collected from each treatment. Coefficient of determination (R2), Root mean square error (RMSE), Normalized root mean square error (N-RMSE), Model efficiency (E), and Degree of agreement (D) were used to test the performance of the model. The results indicated that the AquaCrop model successfully simulated soil water content with R2 varying from 0.92 to 0.98, RMSE 6.5 to 13.9 mm, E 0.78 to 0.94, and D 0.95 to 0.99, and the corresponding values for AB also varied from 0.92 to 0.98, 0.33 to 0.54 tons/ha, 0.74 to 0.93, and 0.9 to 0.98, respectively. The results on the canopy cover of sesame also showed that the model acceptably simulated canopy cover with R2 varying from 0.95 to 0.99 and a RMSE of 5.3 to 8.6%. The AquaCrop model was appropriately calibrated to simulate soil water content, canopy cover, aboveground biomass, and sesame yield; the results indicated that the model adequately simulated the growth and yield of sesame under the different nitrogen fertilizer levels. The AquaCrop model might be an important tool for improved soil fertility management and yield enhancement strategies of sesame. Hence, the model might be applied as a decision-support tool in soil fertility management in sesame production.

Keywords: aquacrop model, normalized water productivity, nitrogen fertilizer, canopy cover, sesame

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9158 Reflection on the Resilience Construction of Megacities Under the Background of Territorial Space Governance

Authors: Xin Jie Li

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Due to population agglomeration, huge scale, and complex activities, megacities have become risk centers. To resist the risks brought by development uncertainty, the construction of resilient cities has become a common strategic choice for megacities. As a key link in promoting the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, optimizing the layout of national land space that focuses on ecology, production, and life and improving the rationality of spatial resource allocation are conducive to fundamentally promoting the resilience construction of megacities. Therefore, based on the perspective of territorial space governance, this article explores the potential risks faced by the territorial space of megacities and proposes possible paths for the resilience construction of megacities from four aspects: promoting the construction of a resilience system throughout the entire life cycle, constructing a disaster prevention and control system with ecological resilience, creating an industrial spatial pattern with production resilience, and enhancing community resilience to anchor the front line of risk response in megacities.

Keywords: mega cities, potential risks, resilient city construction, territorial and spatial governance

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9157 Border Control and Human Rights Violations: Lessons Learned from the United States and Potential Solutions for the European Union

Authors: María Elena Menéndez Ibáñez

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After the terrorist attacks of 9/11, new measures were adopted by powerful countries and regions like the United States and the European Union in order to safeguard their security. In 2002, the US created the Department of Homeland Security with one sole objective; to protect American soil and people. The US adopted new policies that made every immigrant a potential terrorist and a threat to their national security. Stronger border control became one of the key elements of the fight against organized crime and terrorism. The main objective of this paper is to compare some of the most important and radical measures adopted by the US, even those that resulted in systematic violations of human rights, with some of the European measures adopted after the 2015 Paris attacks of 2015, such as unlawful detainment of prisoners and other measures against foreigners. Through the Schengen agreement, the European Union has tried to eliminate tariffs and border controls, in order to guarantee successful economic growth. Terrorists have taken advantage of this and have made the region vulnerable to attacks. Authorities need to strengthen their surveillance methods in order to safeguard the region and its stability. Through qualitative methods applied to social sciences, this research will also try to explain why some of the mechanisms proven to be useful in the US would not be so in Europe, especially because they would result in human rights violations. Finally, solutions will be offered that would not put the whole Schengen Agreement at risk. Europe cannot reinstate border control, without making individuals vulnerable to human rights violations.

Keywords: border control, immigration, international cooperation, national security

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9156 Patient-Reported Adverse Reactions to Adolescent Non-Suicidal Self-Injury Disclosures and Implications for Clinical Practice

Authors: Renee Fabian, Jordan Davidson

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Current research on non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) provides ample insights on best practices for caregivers and clinicians to address and reduce NSSI behavior among adolescents. However, the efficacy of evidenced-based NSSI interventions and their delivery from the perspective of adolescent patients does not receive significant attention, creating a gap between the efficacy of research-based NSSI interventions and adolescent perceptions of NSSI treatment and adolescent willingness to engage in NSSI interventions. To address the gap between practice and patient perspectives and inform more effective treatment outcomes, the current survey aims to identify major patient-reported adverse reactions to NSSI disclosures from caregivers, treating mental health clinicians, and medical professionals using a mixed methods survey of 2,500 people with a history of NSSI completed by editors at a consumer-facing health publication. Based on the analyzed results of the survey, a majority of adolescents with a history of NSSI found parents and caregivers ineffective at empathetically addressing NSSI, and a significant number of participants reported at least one treating mental health professional inadequately responded to NSSI behaviors, in addition to other findings of adverse reactions to NSSI disclosures that serve as a barrier to treatment. NSSI is a significant risk factor for future suicide attempts. Addressing patient-reported adverse reactions to NSSI disclosures in the adolescent population can remove barriers to the effectiveness of caregiver and clinician NSSI interventions and reduce the risk of NSSI-related harm and lower the risk of future suicide attempts or completions.

Keywords: adolescent self-injury, non-suicidal self-injury, patient perspectives, self-harm interventions

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9155 Polyphenol-Rich Aronia Melanocarpa Juice Consumption and Line-1 Dna Methylation in a Cohort at Cardiovascular Risk

Authors: Ljiljana Stojković, Manja Zec, Maja Zivkovic, Maja Bundalo, Marija Glibetić, Dragan Alavantić, Aleksandra Stankovic

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Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is associated with alterations in DNA methylation, the latter modulated by dietary polyphenols. The present pilot study (part of the original clinical study registered as NCT02800967 at www.clinicaltrials.gov) aimed to investigate the impact of 4-week daily consumption of polyphenol-rich Aronia melanocarpa juice on Long Interspersed Nucleotide Element-1 (LINE-1) methylation in peripheral blood leukocytes, in subjects (n=34, age of 41.1±6.6 years) at moderate CVD risk, including an increased body mass index, central obesity, high normal blood pressure and/or dyslipidemia. The goal was also to examine whether factors known to affect DNA methylation, such as folate intake levels, MTHFR C677T gene variant, as well as the anthropometric and metabolic parameters, modulated the LINE-1 methylation levels upon consumption of polyphenol-rich Aronia juice. The experimental analysis of LINE-1 methylation was done by the MethyLight method. MTHFR C677T genotypes were determined by the polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism method. Folate intake was assessed by processing the data from the food frequency questionnaire and repeated 24-hour dietary recalls. Serum lipid profile was determined by using Roche Diagnostics kits. The statistical analyses were performed using the Statistica software package. In women, after vs. before the treatment period, a significant decrease in LINE-1 methylation levels was observed (97.54±1.50% vs. 98.39±0.86%, respectively; P=0.01). The change (after vs. before treatment) in LINE-1 methylation correlated directly with MTHFR 677T allele presence, average daily folate intake and the change in serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, while inversely with the change in serum triacylglycerols (R=0.72, R2=0.52, adjusted R2=0.36, P=0.03). The current results imply potential cardioprotective effects of habitual polyphenol-rich Aronia juice consumption achieved through the modifications of DNA methylation pattern in subjects at CVD risk, which should be further confirmed. Hence, the precision nutrition-driven modulations of DNA methylation may become targets for new approaches in the prevention and treatment of CVD.

Keywords: Aronia melanocarpa, cardiovascular risk, LINE-1, methylation, peripheral blood leukocytes, polyphenol

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9154 Testifying in Court as a Victim of Crime for Persons with Little or No Functional Speech: Vocabulary Implications

Authors: Robyn White, Juan Bornman, Ensa Johnson

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People with disabilities are at a high risk of becoming victims of crime. Individuals with little or no functional speech (LNFS) face an even higher risk. One way of reducing the risk of remaining a victim of crime is to face the alleged perpetrator in court as a witness – therefore it is important for a person with LNFS who has been a victim of crime to have the required vocabulary to testify in court. The aim of this study was to identify and describe the core and fringe legal vocabulary required by illiterate victims of crime, who have little or no functional speech, to testify in court as witnesses. A mixed-method, the exploratory sequential design consisting of two distinct phases was used to address the aim of the research. The first phase was of a qualitative nature and included two different data sources, namely in-depth semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions. The overall aim of this phase was to identify and describe core and fringe legal vocabulary and to develop a measurement instrument based on these results. Results from Phase 1 were used in Phase 2, the quantitative phase, during which the measurement instrument (a custom-designed questionnaire) was socially validated. The results produced six distinct vocabulary categories that represent the legal core vocabulary and 99 words that represent the legal fringe vocabulary. The findings suggested that communication boards should be individualised to the individual and the specific crime. It is believed that the vocabulary lists developed in this study act as a valid and reliable springboard from which communication boards can be developed. Recommendations were therefore made to develop an Alternative and Augmentative Communication Resource Tool Kit to assist the legal justice system.

Keywords: augmentative and alternative communication, person with little or no functional speech, sexual crimes, testifying in court, victim of crime, witness competency

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9153 A Copula-Based Approach for the Assessment of Severity of Illness and Probability of Mortality: An Exploratory Study Applied to Intensive Care Patients

Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson

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Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.

Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence

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9152 Communication through Offline and Online Social Network of Thai Football Premier League Supporters

Authors: Krisana Chueachainat

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The study is about the identity, typology and symbol using in communication through offline and online social network of each Thai football Premier League supporters. Also, study is about the factors that affected the sport to become the growing business and the communication factors that play the important role in the growth of the sport business. The Thai Premier League communicated with supporters in order to show the identity of each supporter and club in different ways. The expression of the identity was shown through online social network and offline told other people who they were. The study also about the factor that impacted the roles and communication factors that make football become the growing business. The factor that impact to the growth of football to the business, if clubs can action, the sport business would be to higher level and also push Thailand’s football to be effective and equal to other countries.

Keywords: online social network, offline social network, Thai football, supporters

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9151 Suitability of Green Macroalgae Porteresia coarctata as a Feed Form Macrobrachium rosenbergii

Authors: Rajrupa Ghosh, Abhijit Mitra

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Future use of animal protein sources in prawn feeds is expected to be considerably reduced as a consequence of increasing economical, environmental and safety issues. Of main concern has been the use of expensive marine protein sources, such as fish meal which often results in fouling of water quality and disease outbreak in cultured species. To determine prawn capacity to use practical feeds with plant proteins as replacement ingredients to animal protein sources, 8-months growth trial was conducted in two sets of ponds using juvenile (0.02 gm) Macrobrachium rosenbergii. Among the two sets, one set (comprising of three ponds) is experimental pond included formulated feed prepared with 30% Porteresia coarctata dust along with other general ingredients and another set (comprising of another three ponds) is control pond with commercial feed. Mean final weight, percent weight gain, final net yield, feed conversion ratio and survival were evaluated. Higher condition index values, survival rate and gain in prawn weight were observed in experimental pond compared to control pond. Low FCR values were observed in the experimental pond than the control pond. Evaluation of production parameters at the end of the study demonstrated significant differences (P ≥ 0.05) among two ponds. The variation may be attributed to specially formulated plant based feed that not only boosted up the growth of prawns, but also upgraded the ambient aquatic health. These results indicate that fish meal can be replaced with algal protein sources in diets without affecting prawn growth and production.

Keywords: macrobrachium rosenbergii, porteresia coarctata, Indian sundarbans, feed

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9150 Seroprevalence Study of Cystic Echinococcosis and Its Associated Risk Factors in Fars Province, Southern Iran

Authors: Mahmoud Reza Tahamtan, Mohammad Saleh Bahreini

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Background and Purpose: Cystic echinococcosis, caused by the larval stage of Echinococcus granulosus, is a common parasitic infection of humans and is endemic in many parts of the world, including Iran. So that, one percent of those admitted to surgery departments are hydatid cyst patients, and using the ELISA method, the infection rate has been reported in different regions of Iran from 1.2% to 21.4%. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the seroepidemiology of human hydatid cysts in Fars province, southern Iran, by ELISA method. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 600 serum samples of persons who were referred to the laboratory of Nemazi Hospital in Shiraz for normal tests were examined for the presence of specific Anti-IgG antibodies to hydatid cysts by ELISA method. During the sampling, a structured questionnaire was used to obtain social data of individuals with determinants of risk factors for Cystic echinococcosis. Finally, the results of the ELISA test, along with demographic information completed by individuals, were analyzed using SPSS software. Results: The average age of the subjects in this study was 40.01 ± 9.166. The prevalence of hydatidosis was reported as 5.66% (34/600). The disease was more in the age group of 21-30, people living in villages, working in rural areas, and people with a history of other parasitic diseases. Statistically, a significant difference was observed between the prevalence of the disease and two risk factors, contact with dogs (OR= 0.042; 95%CI: 0.014-0.12; P= 0.001) and washing vegetables with water (OR= 0.08; 95%CI: 0.011-0.56; P= 0.012). Conclusion: The present study showed that hydatid cyst disease has a significant prevalence in this area. Also, based on the results, contact with dogs and not properly washing vegetables are two important factors of disease transmission.

Keywords: Echinococcus granulosus, Cystic echinococcosis, hydatid cyst, Fars province

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9149 Extremely Low-Frequency Magnetic Field; An Invisible Risk Association between High Power Transmission Lines and Childhood Leukemia and Adult Brain Cancer: Literature Review

Authors: Ali Azeem, Seung-Cheol Hong

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This study focuses on the epidemiological association between childhood leukaemia & adult brain cancer to offer strong evidence that extremely low-frequency magnetic field (ELF-MF) produced from power lines caused cancer. It also gives a comprehensive literature review on epidemiological studies of ELF-MF risk associated with HVTL and childhood leukaemia & adult brain cancer. From the literature review, it is concluded that there is a weak association present between ELF-MF and childhood leukaemia. No consistent association was present between brain cancer and ELF-MF. This study is done on Scielo data and PubMed using the terms extremely low-frequency magnetic field (ELF-MF+cancer), adult brain cancer, high power transmission lines, etc., for the past 10 years.

Keywords: childhood leukaemia, high voltage transmission lines, acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, power lines

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9148 Foreign Direct Investment, International Trade and Environment in Bangladesh: An Empirical Study

Authors: Shilpi Tripathi

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After independence, Bangladesh had to learn to survive on its own without any economic crutches (aid). Foreign direct investment (FDI) became a crucial economic tool for the country to become economically independent. The government started removing restrictions to encourage foreign investment, economic growth, international trade, and the environment. FDI is considered as a way to bridge the saving-investment gap, reduce poverty, balance trade, create jobs for its vast labour force, increase foreign exchange earnings and acquire new modern technology and management skills in the country. At the same time, spillovers of foreign investments in Bangladesh, such as low wages (compared to laborers of developed countries), poor working conditions and unbridled exploitation of the domestic resources, environmental externalities, etc., cannot be ignored. The most important adverse implications of FDI inflows noticed are the environmental problems, which are further impacting the health and society of the country. This paper empirically studies the relationship between FDI, economic growth, international trade (exports and Imports), and the environment since 1996. The first part of the paper focuses on the background and trends of FDI, GDP, trade, and environment (CO₂). The second part focuses on the literature review on the relationship between all the variables. The last part of the paper examines the results of empirical analysis like co-integration and Granger causality. The findings of the paper reveal that a uni-directional relationship exists between FDI, CO₂, and international trade (exports and imports). The direction of the causality reveals that FDI inflow is one of the major contributors to high-volume international trade. At the same time, FDI and international trade both are contributing to carbon emissions in Bangladesh. The paper concludes with the policy recommendations that will ensure environmentally friendly trade, investment, and growth in Bangladesh for the future.

Keywords: foreign direct investment, GDP, international trade, CO₂, Granger causality, environment

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9147 Effect of Diet Inulin Prebiotic on Growth, Reproductive Performance, Carcass Composition and Resistance to Environmental Stresses in Zebra Danio (Danio rerio)

Authors: Ehsan Ahmadifar

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In this research, the effects of different levels (control group (T0), (T1)1, (T2)2 and (T3)3 gr Inulin per Kg diet) of prebiotic Inulin as nutritional supplement on Danio rerio were investigated for 4 month. Since the beginning of feeding larvae until adult (average weight: 67.1 g, length: 4.5 cm) were fed with experimental diets. The survival rate of fish had no significant effect on rate survival (P > 0.05). The highest food conversion ratio (FCR) was in control group and the lowest was observed in T3. Treatment of T3 significantly caused the best feed conversion ratio in Zebra fish (P < 0.05). By increasing the inulin diet during the experiment, specific growth rate increased. The highest and the lowest body weight gain and condition factor were observed in T3 and control, respectively (P < 0.05). Adding 3 gr inulin in Zebra fish diet can improve the performance of the growth indices and final biomass, also this prebiotic can be considered as a suitable supplement for Cyprinidae diet. In the first sampling stage for feeding fish, fat and muscle protein was significantly higher than the second sampling stage (P < 0.05). Given that the second stage fish were full sexual maturity, the amount of fat in muscle decreased (P < 0.05). Moisture and ash levels were significantly (P < 0.05) higher in the second stage sampling than the first stage. Overall, different stage of living affected on muscle chemical composition muscle. Reproductive performance in treatment T2 and T3 were significantly higher than other treatments (P < 0.05). According to the results, the prebiotic inulin does not have a significant impact on the sex ratio in zebrafish (P > 0.05). Based on histology of the gonads, the use of dietary inulin accelerates the process of gonad development in zebrafish.

Keywords: inulin, zebrafish, reproduction, histology

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9146 In vitro Analysis of the Effect of Supplementation Oils on Conjugated Linoleic Acid Production by Butyvibrio Fibrisolvense

Authors: B. D. Ravindra, A. K. Tyagi, C. Kathirvelan

Abstract:

Some micronutrients in food (milk and meat), called ‘functional food components’ exert beneficial effects other than their routine nutrient function and conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) is an unsaturated fatty acid of ruminant origin, an example of this category. However, recently the fear of hypercholesterolemia due to saturated fats has led to the avoidance of dietary fat especially of animal origin despite its advantages such as lowering blood cholesterol, immuno-modulation and anticarcinogenic property due to the presence of CLA. The dietary increase of linoleic acid (LA) and linolenic acid (LNA) is one of the feeding strategies for increasing the CLA concentration in milk. Butyrivibrio fibrisolvens is the one potential rumen bacteria, which has high potential to isomerize LA to CLA. The study was conducted to screen the different oils for CLA production, selected based on their LA concentration. Butyrivibrio fibrisolvens culture (strain 49, MZ3, 30/10) were isolated from the rumen liquor of fistulated Buffalo (age ≈ 3 years; weight ≈ 250 kg) were used in in-vitro experiments, further work was carried out with three oils viz., sunflower, mustard and soybean oil at different concentration (0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.25 and 0.3 g/L of media) to study the growth of bacteria and CLA production at different incubation period (0, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48, 72 h). In the present study, growth of the bacteria was decreased linearly with increase in concentration of three oils. However, highest decrease in growth was recorded at the concentration of 0.30 g of three oils per litre of the media. Highest CLA production was 51.96, 42.08 and 25.60 µg/ml at 0.25 g and it decreased to 48.19, 39.35 and 23.41 µg/ml at 0.3 g supplementation of sunflower, soybean, and mustard oil per litre of the media, respectively at 18 h incubation period. The present study indicates the Butyrivibrio fibrisolvens bacteria involves in the biohydrogenation process, and LA rich sunflower meal can be used to improve the CLA production in rumen and thereby increasing the CLA concentration of milk.

Keywords: Butyrivibrio fibrisolvens, CLA, fatty acids, sunflower oil

Procedia PDF Downloads 367
9145 Soil-Less Misting System: A Technology for Hybrid Seed Production in Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.).

Authors: K. D. Rajatha, S. Rajendra Prasad, N. Nethra

Abstract:

Aeroponics is one of the advanced techniques to cultivate plants without soil with minimal water and nutrient consumption. This is the technology which could bring the vertical growth in agriculture. It is an eco-friendly approach widely used for commercial cultivation of vegetables to obtain the supreme quality and yield. In this context, to harvest potentiality of the technology, an experiment was designed to evaluate the suitability of the aeroponics method over the conventional method for hybrid seed production of tomato. The experiment was carried out under Completely Randomized Design with Factorial (FCRD) concept with three replications during the year 2017-18 at UAS, GKVK Bengaluru. Nutrients and pH were standardized; among the six different nutrient solutions, the crop performance was better in Hoagland’s solution with pH between 5.5-7. The results of the present study revealed that between TAG1F and TAG2F parental lines, TAG1F performed better in both the methods of seed production. Among the methods, aeroponics showed better performance for the quality parameters except for plant spread, due to better availability of nutrients and aeration, huge root biomass in aeroponics. Aeroponics method showed significantly higher plant length (124.9 cm), plant growth rate (0.669), seedling survival rate (100%), early flowering (27.5 days), highest fruit weight (121.5 g), 100 seed weight (0.373 g) and total seed yield plant⁻¹ (11.68 g) compared to the conventional method. By providing the best environment for plant growth, the genetically best possible plant could be grown, thus complete potentiality of the plant could be harvested. Hence, aeroponics could be a promising tool for quality and healthy hybrid seed production throughout the year within protected cultivation.

Keywords: aeroponics, Hoagland’s solution, hybrid seed production, Lycopersicon esculentum

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9144 Techniques of Construction Management in Civil Engineering

Authors: Mamoon M. Atout

Abstract:

The Middle East Gulf region has witnessed rapid growth and development in many areas over the last two decades. The development of the real-estate sector, construction industry and infrastructure projects are a major share of the development that has participated in the civilization of the countries of the Gulf. Construction industry projects were planned and managed by different types of experts, who came from all over the world having different types of experiences in construction management and industry. Some of these projects were completed on time, while many were not, due to many accumulating factors. Many accumulated factors are considered as the principle reason for the problem experienced at the project construction stage, which reflected negatively on the project success. Specific causes of delay have been identified by construction managers to avoid any unexpected delays through proper analysis and considerations to some implications such as risk assessment and analysis for many potential problems to ensure that projects will be delivered on time. Construction management implications were adopted and considered by project managers who have experience and knowledge in applying the techniques of the system of engineering construction management. The aim of this research is to determine the benefits of the implications of construction management by the construction team and level of considerations of the techniques and processes during the project development and construction phases to avoid any delay in the projects. It also aims to determine the factors that participate to project completion delays in case project managers are not well committed to their roles and responsibilities. The results of the analysis will determine the necessity of the applications required by the project team to avoid the causes of delays that help them deliver projects on time, e.g. verifying tender documents, quantities and preparing the construction method of the project.

Keywords: construction management, control process, cost control, planning and scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 241
9143 Trusting Smart Speakers: Analysing the Different Levels of Trust between Technologies

Authors: Alec Wells, Aminu Bello Usman, Justin McKeown

Abstract:

The growing usage of smart speakers raises many privacy and trust concerns compared to other technologies such as smart phones and computers. In this study, a proxy measure of trust is used to gauge users’ opinions on three different technologies based on an empirical study, and to understand which technology most people are most likely to trust. The collected data were analysed using the Kruskal-Wallis H test to determine the statistical differences between the users’ trust level of the three technologies: smart speaker, computer and smart phone. The findings of the study revealed that despite the wide acceptance, ease of use and reputation of smart speakers, people find it difficult to trust smart speakers with their sensitive information via the Direct Voice Input (DVI) and would prefer to use a keyboard or touchscreen offered by computers and smart phones. Findings from this study can inform future work on users’ trust in technology based on perceived ease of use, reputation, perceived credibility and risk of using technologies via DVI.

Keywords: direct voice input, risk, security, technology, trust

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9142 Dynamic Effects of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, International Trade and Urbanization on Environmental Degradation in Nigeria

Authors: Abdulkarim Yusuf

Abstract:

Motivation: A crucial but difficult goal for governments and policymakers in Nigeria in recent years has been the sustainability of economic growth. This goal must be accomplished by regulating or lowering greenhouse gas emissions, which calls for switching to a low- or zero-carbon production system. The lack of in-depth empirical studies on the environmental impact of socioeconomic variables on Nigeria and a number of unresolved issues from earlier research is what led to the current study. Objective: This study fills an important empirical gap by investigating the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis and the long and short-run dynamic impact of socioeconomic variables on ecological sustainability in Nigeria. Data and method: Annual time series data covering the period 1980 to 2020 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique in the presence of structural breaks were adopted for this study. Results: The empirical findings support the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Nigeria in the long and short run. Energy consumption and total import exacerbate environmental deterioration in the long and short run, whereas total export improves environmental quality in the long and short run. Financial development, which contributed to a conspicuous decrease in the level of environmental destruction in the long run, escalated it in the short run. In contrast, urbanization caused a significant increase in environmental damage in the long run but motivated a decrease in biodiversity loss in the short run. Implications: The government, policymakers, and all energy stakeholders should take additional measures to ensure the implementation and diversification of energy sources to accommodate more renewable energy sources that emit less carbon in order to promote efficiency in Nigeria's production processes and lower carbon emissions. In order to promote the production and trade of environmentally friendly goods, they should also revise and strengthen environmental policies. With affordable, dependable, and sustainable energy use for higher productivity and inclusive growth, Nigeria will be able to achieve its long-term development goals of good health and wellbeing.

Keywords: economic growth, energy consumption, environmental degradation, environmental Kuznets curve, urbanization, Nigeria

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9141 Antimicrobial Effect of Natamycin against Food Spoilage Fungi and Yeast Contaminated Fermented Foods

Authors: Pervin Basaran Akocak

Abstract:

Food antimicrobials are compounds that are incorporated into food matrixes in order to cause death or delay the growth of spoilage or pathogenic microorganisms. As a result, microbiological deterioration is prevented throughout storage and food distribution. In this study, the effect of natural antimycotic natamycin (C33H47NO13, with a molecular mass of 665.725), a GRAS (Generally Recognized As Safe) commercial compound produced by different strains of Streptomyces sp., was tested against various fermented food contamination fungi and yeast species. At the concentration of 100 µg/ml, natamycin exhibited stronger antifungal activity against fungi than yeast species tested. The exposure time of natamycin for complete inhibition of the species tested were found to be between 100-180 min at 300-750 µg/ml concentration. SEM observations of fungal species demonstrated that natamycin distorted and damaged the conidia and hyphae by inhibiting spore germination and mycelial growth. Natamycin can be considered as a potential candidate in hurdle food treatments for preventing fungal and yeast invasion and resulting deterioration of fermented products.

Keywords: natamycin, antifungal, fermented food, food spoilage fungi

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9140 Developing Geriatric Oral Health Network is a Public Health Necessity for Older Adults

Authors: Maryam Tabrizi, Shahrzad Aarup

Abstract:

Objectives- Understanding the close association between oral health and overall health for older adults at the right time and right place, a person, focus treatment through Project ECHO telementoring. Methodology- Data from monthly ECHO telementoring sessions were provided for three years. Sessions including case presentations, overall health conditions, considering medications, organ functions limitations, including the level of cognition. Contributions- Providing the specialist level of providing care to all elderly regardless of their location and other health conditions and decreasing oral health inequity by increasing workforce via Project ECHO telementoring program worldwide. By 2030, the number of adults in the USA over the age of 65 will increase more than 60% (approx.46 million) and over 22 million (30%) of 74 million older Americans will need specialized geriatrician care. In 2025, a national shortage of medical geriatricians will be close to 27,000. Most individuals 65 and older do not receive oral health care due to lack of access, availability, or affordability. One of the main reasons is a significant shortage of Oral Health (OH) education and resources for the elderly, particularly in rural areas. Poor OH is a social stigma, a thread to quality and safety of overall health of the elderly with physical and cognitive decline. Poor OH conditions may be costly and sometimes life-threatening. Non-traumatic dental-related emergency department use in Texas alone was over $250 M in 2016. Most elderly over the age of 65 present with at least one or multiple chronic diseases such as arthritis, diabetes, heart diseases, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at higher risk to develop gum (periodontal) disease, yet they are less likely to get dental care. In addition, most older adults take both prescription and over-the-counter drugs; according to scientific studies, many of these medications cause dry mouth. Reduced saliva flow due to aging and medications may increase the risk of cavities and other oral conditions. Most dental schools have already increased geriatrics OH in their educational curriculums, but the aging population growth worldwide is faster than growing geriatrics dentists. However, without the use of advanced technology and creating a network between specialists and primary care providers, it is impossible to increase the workforce, provide equitable oral health to the elderly. Project ECHO is a guided practice model that revolutionizes health education and increases the workforce to provide best-practice specialty care and reduce health disparities. Training oral health providers for utilizing the Project ECHO model is a logical response to the shortage and increases oral health access to the elderly. Project ECHO trains general dentists & hygienists to provide specialty care services. This means more elderly can get the care they need, in the right place, at the right time, with better treatment outcomes and reduces costs.

Keywords: geriatric, oral health, project echo, chronic disease, oral health

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9139 High Injury Prevalence in Adolescent Field Hockey Players: Implications for Future Practice

Authors: Pillay J. D., D. De Wit, J. F. Ducray

Abstract:

Field hockey is a popular international sport which is played in more than 100 countries across the world. Due to the nature of hockey, players repeatedly perform a combination of forward flexion and rotational movements of the spine in order to strike the ball. These movements have been shown to increase the risk of pain and injury to the lumbar spine. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and incidence of low back pain (LBP) in male adolescent field hockey players and the characteristics of LBP in terms of location, chronicity, disability, and treatment sought, as well as its association with selected risk factors. A survey was conducted on 112 male adolescent field hockey players in the eThekwini Municipality of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The questionnaire contained sections on the demographics of participants, general characteristics of participants, health and lifestyle characteristics, low back pain patterns, treatment of low back pain, and the level of disability associated with LBP. The data were statistically analysed using IBM SPSS version 25 with statistical significance set at p-value <0.05. Descriptive statistics such as mean and standard deviation were used to summarise responses to continuous variables as appropriate. Categorical variables were described using frequency tables. Associations between risk factors and low back pain were tested using Pearson’s chi-square test and t-tests as appropriate. A total of 68 questionnaires were completed for analysis (67% participation rate); the period prevalence of LBP was 63.2% (35.0%:beginning of the season, 32.4%:mid-season, 22.1%: end of season). Incidence was 38.2%. The most common location for LBP was the middle low back region (39.5%), and the most common duration of pain was a few hours (32.6%). Most participants (79.1%) did not classify their pain as a disability, and only 44.2% of participants received medical treatment for their LBP. An interesting finding was the association between hydration and LBP (p = 0.050), i.e., those individuals who did not hydrate frequently during matches and training were significantly more likely to experience LBP. The results of this study, although limited to a select group of adolescents, showed a higher prevalence of LBP than that of previous studies. More importantly, even though most participants did not experience LBP classified as a disability, LBP still had a large impact on participants, as nearly half of the participants consulted with a medical professional for treatment. Need for the application of further strategies in the prevention and management of LBP in field hockey, such as adequate warm-up and cool-down, stretching exercises, rest between sessions, etc., are recommended as simple strategies to reduce LBP prevalence.

Keywords: adolescents, field hockey players, incidence, low back pain, prevalence, risk factors

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9138 Comparison of Classical and Ultrasound-Assisted Extractions of Hyphaene thebaica Fruit and Evaluation of Its Extract as Antibacterial Activity in Reducing Severity of Erwinia carotovora

Authors: Hanan Moawad, Naglaa M. Abd EL-Rahman

Abstract:

Erwinia carotovora var. carotovora is the main cause of soft rot in potatoes. Hyphaene thebaica was studied for biocontrol of E. carotovora which inhibited growth of E. carotovora on solid medium, a comparative study of classical and ultrasound-assisted extractions of Hyphaene thebaica fruit. The use of ultrasound decreased significant the total time of treatment and increase the total amount of crude extract. The crude extract was subjected to determine the in vitro, by a bioassay technique revealed that the treatment of paper disks with ultrasound extraction of Hyphaene thebaica reduced the growth of pathogen and produced inhibition zones up to 38mm in diameter. The antioxidant activity of ultrasound-ethanolic extract of Doum fruits (Hyphaene thebaica) was determined. Data obtained showed that the extract contains the secondary metabolites such as Tannins, Saponin, Flavonoids, Phenols, Steroids, Terpenoids, Glycosides and Alkaloids.

Keywords: ultrasound, classical extract, biological control, Erwinia carotovora, Hyphaene thebaica

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9137 Impact of Fly Ash on Soil Quality in Semi-Arid Region

Authors: Anjuri Srivastava, Akhouri Nishant Bhanu

Abstract:

Soil is a natural material with a distinctive form. It is regarded to be a natural source of nutrients and minerals for plants. It meets many of our needs through the crops, trees, and inhabited places that have grown on or underneath it. Productive and rich soil plays a crucial role in both its wealth and well-being. If any external substance changes the soil's composition, it directly impacts the plant that was grown in that soil. If the soil is deficient in one or more essential components, fly ash can be utilized as fertilizer by incorporating it into the soil. This can also increase the porosity of the soil. Fly ash has a sufficient concentration of essential components to promote the growth of plants. The high concentration of elements in fly ash, including C, Na, K, Fe, and Zn, increases crop yields. Hazardous compounds harm plant life as soon as they get into the soil. The US Environmental Protection Agency and other regulatory agencies have found it as non-hazardous. By employing fly ash as a potential fertilizer supplement for degraded soils, the problem of disposing of solid waste can be partially handled. Fly ash's rapid growth can slow down mineralization because it contains a higher proportion of harmful heavy metals. The chemical characteristics, inclusion ratio, and composting process of fly ash have a significant impact on the fly ash compost’s potential to improve soil nutrition. Research institutions and regulatory agencies have been thoroughly investigating fly ash for a long time. Guard cells on plant leaves that accumulate fly ash trigger the regulatory system. Fly ash increases both chemical and physical damage at certain humidity levels. The lengthy sowing period is caused by the high levels of fly ash in the soil, which also slows down seedling germination and growth. For the sake of human health, it is crucial to consider the bioaccumulation of dangerous heavy metals and their necessary concentrations in plant tissues and soil.

Keywords: soil, fly ash, plant, fertilizer, composts

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9136 Effect of Total Body Irradiation for Metastatic Lymph Node and Lung Metastasis in Early Stage

Authors: Shouta Sora, Shizuki Kuriu, Radhika Mishra, Ariunbuyan Sukhbaatar, Maya Sakamoto, Shiro Mori, Tetsuya Kodama

Abstract:

Lymph node (LN) metastasis accounts for 20 - 30 % of all deaths in patients with head and neck cancer. Therefore, the control of metastatic lymph nodes (MLNs) is necessary to improve the life prognosis of patients with cancer. In a classical metastatic theory, tumor cells are thought to metastasize hematogenously through a bead-like network of lymph nodes. Recently, a lymph node-mediated hematogenous metastasis theory has been proposed, in which sentinel LNs are regarded as a source of distant metastasis. Therefore, the treatment of MLNs at the early stage is essential to prevent distant metastasis. Radiation therapy is one of the primary therapeutic modalities in cancer treatment. In addition, total body irradiation (TBI) has been reported to act as activation of natural killer cells and increase of infiltration of CD4+ T-cells to tumor tissues. However, the treatment effect of TBI for MLNs remains unclear. This study evaluated the possibilities of low-dose total body irradiation (L-TBI) and middle-dose total body irradiation (M-TBI) for the treatment of MLNs. Mouse breast cancer FM3A-Luc cells were injected into subiliac lymph node (SiLN) of MXH10/Mo/LPR mice to induce the metastasis to the proper axillary lymph node (PALN) and lung. Mice were irradiated for the whole body on 4 days after tumor injection. The L-TBI and M-TBI were defined as irradiations to the whole body at 0.2 Gy and 1.0 Gy, respectively. Tumor growth was evaluated by in vivo bioluminescence imaging system. In the non-irradiated group, tumor activities on SiLN and PALN significantly increased over time, and the metastasis to the lung from LNs was confirmed 28 days after tumor injection. The L-TBI led to a tumor growth delay in PALN but did not control tumor growth in SiLN and metastasis to the lung. In contrast, it was found that the M-TBI significantly delayed the tumor growth of both SiLN and PALN and controlled the distant metastasis to the lung compared with non-irradiated and L-TBI groups. These results suggest that the M-TBI is an effective treatment method for MLNs in the early stage and distant metastasis from lymph nodes via blood vessels connected with LNs.

Keywords: metastatic lymph node, lung metastasis, radiation therapy, total body irradiation, lymphatic system

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9135 Edmonton Urban Growth Model as a Support Tool for the City Plan Growth Scenarios Development

Authors: Sinisa J. Vukicevic

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Edmonton is currently one of the youngest North American cities and has achieved significant growth over the past 40 years. Strong urban shift requires a new approach to how the city is envisioned, planned, and built. This approach is evidence-based scenario development, and an urban growth model was a key support tool in framing Edmonton development strategies, developing urban policies, and assessing policy implications. The urban growth model has been developed using the Metronamica software platform. The Metronamica land use model evaluated the dynamic of land use change under the influence of key development drivers (population and employment), zoning, land suitability, and land and activity accessibility. The model was designed following the Big City Moves ideas: become greener as we grow, develop a rebuildable city, ignite a community of communities, foster a healing city, and create a city of convergence. The Big City Moves were converted to three development scenarios: ‘Strong Central City’, ‘Node City’, and ‘Corridor City’. Each scenario has a narrative story that expressed scenario’s high level goal, scenario’s approach to residential and commercial activities, to transportation vision, and employment and environmental principles. Land use demand was calculated for each scenario according to specific density targets. Spatial policies were analyzed according to their level of importance within the policy set definition for the specific scenario, but also through the policy measures. The model was calibrated on the way to reproduce known historical land use pattern. For the calibration, we used 2006 and 2011 land use data. The validation is done independently, which means we used the data we did not use for the calibration. The model was validated with 2016 data. In general, the modeling process contain three main phases: ‘from qualitative storyline to quantitative modelling’, ‘model development and model run’, and ‘from quantitative modelling to qualitative storyline’. The model also incorporates five spatial indicators: distance from residential to work, distance from residential to recreation, distance to river valley, urban expansion and habitat fragmentation. The major finding of this research could be looked at from two perspectives: the planning perspective and technology perspective. The planning perspective evaluates the model as a tool for scenario development. Using the model, we explored the land use dynamic that is influenced by a different set of policies. The model enables a direct comparison between the three scenarios. We explored the similarities and differences of scenarios and their quantitative indicators: land use change, population change (and spatial allocation), job allocation, density (population, employment, and dwelling unit), habitat connectivity, proximity to objects of interest, etc. From the technology perspective, the model showed one very important characteristic: the model flexibility. The direction for policy testing changed many times during the consultation process and model flexibility in applying all these changes was highly appreciated. The model satisfied our needs as scenario development and evaluation tool, but also as a communication tool during the consultation process.

Keywords: urban growth model, scenario development, spatial indicators, Metronamica

Procedia PDF Downloads 91