Search results for: labour migration patterns
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4062

Search results for: labour migration patterns

1362 Assessment of Agricultural Land Use Land Cover, Land Surface Temperature and Population Changes Using Remote Sensing and GIS: Southwest Part of Marmara Sea, Turkey

Authors: Melis Inalpulat, Levent Genc

Abstract:

Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes due to human activities and natural causes have become a major environmental concern. Assessment of temporal remote sensing data provides information about LULC impacts on environment. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is one of the important components for modeling environmental changes in climatological, hydrological, and agricultural studies. In this study, LULC changes (September 7, 1984 and July 8, 2014) especially in agricultural lands together with population changes (1985-2014) and LST status were investigated using remotely sensed and census data in South Marmara Watershed, Turkey. LULC changes were determined using Landsat TM and Landsat OLI data acquired in 1984 and 2014 summers. Six-band TM and OLI images were classified using supervised classification method to prepare LULC map including five classes including Forest (F), Grazing Land (G), Agricultural Land (A), Water Surface (W), and Residential Area-Bare Soil (R-B) classes. The LST image was also derived from thermal bands of the same dates. LULC classification results showed that forest areas, agricultural lands, water surfaces and residential area-bare soils were increased as 65751 ha, 20163 ha, 1924 ha and 20462 ha respectively. In comparison, a dramatic decrement occurred in grazing land (107985 ha) within three decades. The population increased % 29 between years 1984-2014 in whole study area. Along with the natural causes, migration also caused this increase since the study area has an important employment potential. LULC was transformed among the classes due to the expansion in residential, commercial and industrial areas as well as political decisions. In the study, results showed that agricultural lands around the settlement areas transformed to residential areas in 30 years. The LST images showed that mean temperatures were ranged between 26-32 °C in 1984 and 27-33 °C in 2014. Minimum temperature of agricultural lands was increased 3 °C and reached to 23 °C. In contrast, maximum temperature of A class decreased to 41 °C from 44 °C. Considering temperatures of the 2014 R-B class and 1984 status of same areas, it was seen that mean, min and max temperatures increased by 2 °C. As a result, the dynamism of population, LULC and LST resulted in increasing mean and maximum surface temperatures, living spaces/industrial areas and agricultural lands.

Keywords: census data, landsat, land surface temperature (LST), land use land cover (LULC)

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1361 Anomaly Detection in Financial Markets Using Tucker Decomposition

Authors: Salma Krafessi

Abstract:

The financial markets have a multifaceted, intricate environment, and enormous volumes of data are produced every day. To find investment possibilities, possible fraudulent activity, and market oddities, accurate anomaly identification in this data is essential. Conventional methods for detecting anomalies frequently fail to capture the complex organization of financial data. In order to improve the identification of abnormalities in financial time series data, this study presents Tucker Decomposition as a reliable multi-way analysis approach. We start by gathering closing prices for the S&P 500 index across a number of decades. The information is converted to a three-dimensional tensor format, which contains internal characteristics and temporal sequences in a sliding window structure. The tensor is then broken down using Tucker Decomposition into a core tensor and matching factor matrices, allowing latent patterns and relationships in the data to be captured. A possible sign of abnormalities is the reconstruction error from Tucker's Decomposition. We are able to identify large deviations that indicate unusual behavior by setting a statistical threshold. A thorough examination that contrasts the Tucker-based method with traditional anomaly detection approaches validates our methodology. The outcomes demonstrate the superiority of Tucker's Decomposition in identifying intricate and subtle abnormalities that are otherwise missed. This work opens the door for more research into multi-way data analysis approaches across a range of disciplines and emphasizes the value of tensor-based methods in financial analysis.

Keywords: tucker decomposition, financial markets, financial engineering, artificial intelligence, decomposition models

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1360 Microstructural Characterization of Creep Damage Evolution in Welded Inconel 600 Superalloy

Authors: Lourdes Yareth Herrera-Chavez, Alberto Ruiz, Victor H. Lopez

Abstract:

Superalloys are used in components that operate at high temperatures such as pressure vessels and heat exchanger tubing. Design standards for these components must consider creep resistance among other criteria. Fusion welding processes are commonly used in the industry to join such components. Fusion processes commonly generate three distinctive zones, i.e. heat affected zone (HAZ), namely weld metal (WM) and base metal (BM). In nickel-based superalloy, the microstructure developed during fusion welding dictates the mechanical response of the welded component and it is very important to establish these effects in the mechanical response of the component. In this work, two plates of Inconel 600 superalloy were Gas Metal Arc Welded (GMAW). Creep samples were cut and milled to specifications and creep tested at a temperature (650 °C) using stress level of 350, 300, 275, 250 and 200 MPa. Microstructural analysis results showed a progressive creep damage evolution that depends on the stress levels with a preferential accumulation of creep damage at the heat affected zone where the creep rupture preferentially occurs owing to an austenitic matrix with grain boundary precipitated of the type Cr23C6. The fractured surfaces showed dimple patterns of cavity and voids. Results indicated that the damage mechanism is due to cavity growth by the combined effect of the power law and diffusion creep.

Keywords: austenitic microstructure, creep damage evolution, heat affected zone, vickers microhardness

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1359 Developing and Standardizing Individual Care Plan for Children in Conflict with Law in the State of Kerala

Authors: Kavitha Puthanveedu, Kasi Sekar, Preeti Jacob, Kavita Jangam

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In India, The Juvenile Justice (Care and Protection of Children) Act, 2015, the law related to children alleged and found to be in conflict with law, proposes to address to the rehabilitation of children in conflict with law by catering to the basic rights by providing care and protection, development, treatment, and social re-integration. A major concern in addressing the issues of children in conflict with law in Kerala the southernmost state in India identified were: 1. Lack of psychological assessment for children in conflict with law, 2. Poor psychosocial intervention for children in conflict with law on bail, 3. Lack of psychosocial intervention or proper care and protection of CCL residing at observation and special home, 4. Lack convergence with systems related with mental health care. Aim: To develop individual care plan for children in conflict with law. Methodology: NIMHANS a premier Institute of Mental Health and Neurosciences, collaborated with Social Justice Department, Govt. of Kerala to address this issue by developing a participatory methodology to implement psychosocial care in the existing services by integrating the activities through multidisciplinary and multisectoral approach as per the Sec. 18 of JJAct 2015. Developing individual care plan: Key informant interviews, focus group discussion with multiple stakeholders consisting of legal officers, police, child protection officials, counselors, and home staff were conducted. Case studies were conducted among children in conflict with law. A checklist on 80 psychosocial problems among children in conflict with law was prepared with eight major issues identified through the quantitative process such as family and parental characteristic, family interactions and relationships, stressful life event, social and environmental factors, child’s individual characteristics, education, child labour and high-risk behavior. Standardised scales were used to identify the anxiety, caseness, suicidality and substance use among the children. This provided a background data understand the psychosocial problems experienced by children in conflict with law. In the second stage, a detailed plan of action was developed involving multiple stakeholders that include Special juvenile police unit, DCPO, JJB, and NGOs. The individual care plan was reviewed by a panel of 4 experts working in the area of children, followed by the review by multiple stakeholders in juvenile justice system such as Magistrates, JJB members, legal cum probation officers, district child protection officers, social workers and counselors. Necessary changes were made in the individual care plan in each stage which was pilot tested with 45 children for a period of one month and standardized for administering among children in conflict with law. Result: The individual care plan developed through scientific process was standardized and currently administered among children in conflict with law in the state of Kerala in the 3 districts that will be further implemented in other 14 districts. The program was successful in developing a systematic approach for the psychosocial intervention of children in conflict with law that can be a forerunner for other states in India.

Keywords: psychosocial care, individual care plan, multidisciplinary, multisectoral

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1358 Assessing Smallholder Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Coping Strategies Adopted in the Olifants Catchment of South Africa

Authors: Mary Funke Olabanji, Thando Ndarana, Nerhene Davis, Sylvester Okechukwu Ilo

Abstract:

Scientific evidence indicates that climate change is already being experienced by farmers, and its impacts are felt on agricultural and food systems. Understanding the perceptions of farmers on climate change and how they respond to this change is essential to the development and implementation of appropriate policies for agriculture and food security. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of farmers’ perceptions of climate change, adopted coping strategies, long-term implications of their adaptation choices, and barriers to their decisions to adapt. Data were randomly collected from 73 respondents in five districts located in the Olifants catchment of South Africa. A combination of descriptive statistics and Chi-Square statistical tests using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) was used to analyse the data obtained from the survey. Results show that smallholder farmers have an in-depth perception of climate change. The most significant changes perceived by farmers were increased temperature and low rainfall. The results equally revealed that smallholder farmers in the Olifants catchment had adopted several adaptation strategies in response to the perceived climate change. The significant adaptation strategies from the results include changing cropping patterns and planting date, use of improved seed variety, and chemical fertilizers. The study, therefore, concludes that crop diversification and agroforestry were more effective and sustainable in mitigating the impact of climate change.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, perception, smallholder farmers

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1357 Characterization of Femur Development in Mice: A Computational Approach

Authors: Moncayo Donoso Miguelangel, Guevara Morales Johana, Kalenia Flores Kalenia, Barrera Avellaneda Luis Alejandro, Garzon Alvarado Diego Alexander

Abstract:

In mammals, long bones are formed by ossification of a cartilage mold during early embryonic development, forming structures called secondary ossification centers (SOCs), a primary ossification center (POC) and growth plates. This last structure is responsible for long bone growth. During the femur growth, the morphology of the growth plate and the SOCs may vary during different developmental stages. So far there are no detailed morphological studies of the development process from embryonic to adult stages. In this work, we carried out a morphological characterization of femur development from embryonic period to adulthood in mice. 15, 17 and 19 days old embryos and 1, 7, 14, 35, 46 and 52 days old mice were used. Samples were analyzed by a computational approach, using 3D images obtained by micro-CT imaging. Results obtained in this study showed that femur, its growth plates and SOCs undergo morphological changes during different stages of development, including changes in shape, position and thickness. These variations may be related with a response to mechanical loads imposed for muscle development surrounding the femur and a high activity during early stages necessary to support the high growth rates during first weeks and years of development. This study is important to improve our knowledge about the ossification patterns on every stage of bone development and characterize the morphological changes of important structures in bone growth like SOCs and growth plates.

Keywords: development, femur, growth plate, mice

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1356 Hand Gesture Interface for PC Control and SMS Notification Using MEMS Sensors

Authors: Keerthana E., Lohithya S., Harshavardhini K. S., Saranya G., Suganthi S.

Abstract:

In an epoch of expanding human-machine interaction, the development of innovative interfaces that bridge the gap between physical gestures and digital control has gained significant momentum. This study introduces a distinct solution that leverages a combination of MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems) sensors, an Arduino Mega microcontroller, and a PC to create a hand gesture interface for PC control and SMS notification. The core of the system is an ADXL335 MEMS accelerometer sensor integrated with an Arduino Mega, which communicates with a PC via a USB cable. The ADXL335 provides real-time acceleration data, which is processed by the Arduino to detect specific hand gestures. These gestures, such as left, right, up, down, or custom patterns, are interpreted by the Arduino, and corresponding actions are triggered. In the context of SMS notifications, when a gesture indicative of a new SMS is recognized, the Arduino relays this information to the PC through the serial connection. The PC application, designed to monitor the Arduino's serial port, displays these SMS notifications in the serial monitor. This study offers an engaging and interactive means of interfacing with a PC by translating hand gestures into meaningful actions, opening up opportunities for intuitive computer control. Furthermore, the integration of SMS notifications adds a practical dimension to the system, notifying users of incoming messages as they interact with their computers. The use of MEMS sensors, Arduino, and serial communication serves as a promising foundation for expanding the capabilities of gesture-based control systems.

Keywords: hand gestures, multiple cables, serial communication, sms notification

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1355 Self-Action of Pyroelectric Spatial Soliton in Undoped Lithium Niobate Samples with Pyroelectric Mechanism of Nonlinear Response

Authors: Anton S. Perin, Vladimir M. Shandarov

Abstract:

Compensation for the nonlinear diffraction of narrow laser beams with wavelength of 532 and the formation of photonic waveguides and waveguide circuits due to the contribution of pyroelectric effect to the nonlinear response of lithium niobate crystal have been experimentally demonstrated. Complete compensation for the linear and nonlinear diffraction broadening of light beams is obtained upon uniform heating of an undoped sample from room temperature to 55 degrees Celsius. An analysis of the light-field distribution patterns and the corresponding intensity distribution profiles allowed us to estimate the spacing for the channel waveguides. The observed behavior of bright soliton beams may be caused by their coherent interaction, which manifests itself in repulsion for anti-phase light fields and in attraction for in-phase light fields. The experimental results of this study showed a fundamental possibility of forming optically complex waveguide structures in lithium niobate crystals with pyroelectric mechanism of nonlinear response. The topology of these structures is determined by the light field distribution on the input face of crystalline sample. The optical induction of channel waveguide elements by interacting spatial solitons makes it possible to design optical systems with a more complex topology and a possibility of their dynamic reconfiguration.

Keywords: self-action, soliton, lithium niobate, piroliton, photorefractive effect, pyroelectric effect

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1354 Legal Initiatives for Afghan Humanitarian Crisis

Authors: Fereshteh Ganjavi, Rachel Schaffer, Varsha Jorawar

Abstract:

Elena’s Light is a non-profit organization focused on building brighter futures for refugees, especially women and children. Our mission is to empower refugee women and children by addressing social, legal, and public health issues that predominantly concern them. Elena’s Light offers a range of services that support refugees from structural disadvantages, cultural and social stress, marginalization, and other stressors related to migration. Using a three-pronged approach, our programs focus on legal advocacy, English language acquisition, and health and wellness. Following the Afghan humanitarian crisis, Elena’s Light has developed and intensified advocacy efforts in the legal realm to address the influx of refugees who desperately need assistance. We developed and hosted a Know Your Rights presentation with local immigration lawyers and professionals in February 2022 on the Afghan Humanitarian Parole, which was very successful with over 100 attendees. Elena’s Light is hosting the second Know Your Rights session in early August 2022 on immigration options for Afghans, including Temporary Protected Status (TPS), asylum, Special Immigrant Visa (SIV), and humanitarian parole. Lastly, EL is also leading the local initiative to develop a pro-bono committee to respond to the overwhelming need for lawyers to work on legal cases for Afghan during this crisis. Furthermore, through our other services, we provide free, in-home customizable ESL tutoring sessions to refugee women with a focus on driver’s education, facilitating acculturation, and improving employment opportunities. We also provide in-home maternal, pediatric, and mental health education and wellness services that are aimed at addressing the explicit and implicit barriers to healthcare for refugee populations. Elena’s Light’s diverse community aims to counter the structural disadvantages and anxiety-inducing emotions and experiences related to being a refugee. We would like to join this International Conference on Refugee Law since protecting refugee rights is our mission. We would like to share what we have learned from our legal initiatives for refugee rights. We would also like to listen, learn from, and discuss with experts and researchers how to better understand and advocate for refugee rights. We hope to improve our understanding of how to provide better legal aid for our clients through this conference.

Keywords: legal, advocacy, Afghan humanitarian crisis, policy, pro-bono

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1353 Exploring Subjective Simultaneous Mixed Emotion Experiences in Middle Childhood

Authors: Esther Burkitt

Abstract:

Background: Evidence is mounting that mixed emotions can be experienced simultaneously in different ways across the lifespan. Four types of patterns of simultaneously mixed emotions (sequential, prevalent, highly parallel, and inverse types) have been identified in middle childhood and adolescence. Moreover, the recognition of these experiences tends to develop firstly when children consider peers rather than the self. This evidence from children and adolescents is based on examining the presence of experiences specified in adulthood. The present study, therefore, applied an exhaustive coding scheme to investigate whether children experience types of previously unidentified simultaneous mixed emotional experiences. Methodology: One hundred and twenty children (60 girls) aged 7 years 1 month - 9 years 2 months (X=8 years 1 month; SD = 10 months) were recruited from mainstream schools across the UK. Two age groups were formed (youngest, n = 61, 7 years 1 month- 8 years 1 months: oldest, n = 59, 8 years 2 months – 9 years 2 months) and allocated to one of two conditions hearing vignettes describing happy and sad mixed emotion events in age and gender-matched protagonist or themselves. Results: Loglinear analyses identified new types of flexuous, vertical, and other experiences along with established sequential, prevalent, highly parallel, and inverse types of experience. Older children recognised more complex experiences other than the self-condition. Conclusion: Several additional types of simultaneously mixed emotions are recognised in middle childhood. The theoretical relevance of simultaneous mixed emotion processing in childhood is considered, and the potential utility of the findings in emotion assessments is discussed.

Keywords: emotion, childhood, self, other

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1352 Population Structure Analysis of Pakistani Indigenous Cattle Population by Using High Density SNP Array

Authors: Hamid Mustafa, Huson J. Heather, Kim Eiusoo, McClure Matt, Khalid Javed, Talat Nasser Pasha, Afzal Ali1, Adeela Ajmal, Tad Sonstegard

Abstract:

Genetic differences associated with speciation, breed formation or local adaptation can help to preserve and effective utilization of animals in selection programs. Analyses of population structure and breed diversity have provided insight into the origin and evolution of cattle. In this study, we used a high-density panel of SNP markers to examine population structure and diversity among ten Pakistani indigenous cattle breeds. In total, 25 individuals from three cattle populations, including Achi (n=08), Bhagnari (n=04) and Cholistani (n=13) were genotyped for 777, 962 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. Population structure was examined using the linkage model in the program STRUCTURE. After characterizing SNP polymorphism in the different populations, we performed a detailed analysis of genetic structure at both the individual and population levels. The whole-genome SNP panel identified several levels of population substructure in the set of examined cattle breeds. We further searched for spatial patterns of genetic diversity among these breeds under the recently developed spatial principal component analysis framework. Overall, such high throughput genotyping data confirmed a clear partitioning of the cattle genetic diversity into distinct breeds. The resulting complex historical origins associated with both natural and artificial selection have led to the differentiation of numerous different cattle breeds displaying a broad phenotypic variety over a short period of time.

Keywords: Pakistan, cattle, genetic diversity, population structure

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1351 A Study on Abnormal Behavior Detection in BYOD Environment

Authors: Dongwan Kang, Joohyung Oh, Chaetae Im

Abstract:

Advancement of communication technologies and smart devices in the recent times is leading to changes into the integrated wired and wireless communication environments. Since early days, businesses had started introducing environments for mobile device application to their operations in order to improve productivity (efficiency) and the closed corporate environment gradually shifted to an open structure. Recently, individual user's interest in working environment using mobile devices has increased and a new corporate working environment under the concept of BYOD is drawing attention. BYOD (bring your own device) is a concept where individuals bring in and use their own devices in business activities. Through BYOD, businesses can anticipate improved productivity (efficiency) and also a reduction in the cost of purchasing devices. However, as a result of security threats caused by frequent loss and theft of personal devices and corporate data leaks due to low security, companies are reluctant about adopting BYOD system. In addition, without considerations to diverse devices and connection environments, there are limitations in detecting abnormal behaviors such as information leaks which use the existing network-based security equipment. This study suggests a method to detect abnormal behaviors according to individual behavioral patterns, rather than the existing signature-based malicious behavior detection and discusses applications of this method in BYOD environment.

Keywords: BYOD, security, anomaly behavior detection, security equipment, communication technologies

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1350 The Social Reaction to the Wadi Salib Riots (1959) as Reflected in Contemporary Israeli Press

Authors: Ada Yurman

Abstract:

Social reactions to deviant groups with political goals follow two central patterns; one that associates personal characteristics with deviant behavior, and the other that claims that society is to be blamed for deviant behavior. The establishment usually tends towards the former notion and thus disclaims any responsibility for the distress of the underprivileged, while it is usually those who oppose government policies who believe that the fault lies with society. The purpose of the present research was to examine social reactions to the Wadi Salib riots that occurred in Haifa in 1959. These riots represented the first ethnic protest within Israeli society with its ideology of the ingathering of the exiles. The central question was whether this ideology contributed to the development of a different reaction when compared to reactions to similar events abroad. This question was examined by means of analyzing articles in the Israeli press of that period. The Israeli press representing the views of the establishment was at pains to point out that the rioters were criminals, their object being to obstruct the development of society. Opposition party leaders claimed that the rioters lived in poor circumstances, which constituted a direct result of government policies. An analysis of press reports on the Wadi Salib riots indicates a correspondence between the reaction to these events and similar events abroad. Nevertheless, the reaction to the Wadi Salib riots did not only express a conflict between different political camps, but also different symbolic universes. Each group exploited the events at Wadi Salib to prove that their ideology was the legitimate one.

Keywords: riots, media, political deviance, symbolic universe

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1349 Solid-State Synthesis Approach and Optical study of Red Emitting Phosphors Li₃BaSrxCa₁₋ₓEu₂.₇Gd₀.₃(MoO₄)₈ for White LEDs

Authors: Priyansha Sharma, Sibani Mund, Sivakumar Vaidyanathan

Abstract:

Solid-state synthesis methods were used for the synthesis of pure red emissive Li¬3BaSrxCa(1-x)Eu2.7Gd0.3(MoO4)8 (x = 0.0 to 1.0) phosphors, XRD, SEM, and FTIR spectra were used to characterize the materials, and their optical properties were thoroughly investigated. PL studies were examined at different excitations 230 nm, 275nm, 465nm, and 395 nm. All the spectra show similar emissions with the highest transition at 616 nm due to ED transition. The given phosphor Li¬3BaSr0.25Ca0.75Eu2.7Gd0.3(MoO4)8 shows the highest intensity and is thus chosen for the temperature-dependent and Quantum yield study. According to the PL investigation, the phosphor-containing Eu3+ emits red light due to the (5D0 7F2) transition. The excitation analysis shows that all of the Eu3+ activated phosphors exhibited broad absorption due to the charge transfer band, O2-Mo6+, O2-Eu3+ transition, as well as narrow absorption bands related to the Eu3+ ion's 4f-4f electronic transition. Excitation spectra show Charge transfer band at 275 nm shows the highest intensity. The primary band in the spectra refers to Eu3+ ions occupying the lattice's non-centrosymmetric location. All of the compositions are monoclinic crystal structures with space group C2/c and match with reference powder patterns. The thermal stability of the 3BaSr0.25Ca0.75Eu2.7Gd0.3(MoO4)8 phosphor was investigated at (300 k- 500 K) as well as at low temperature from (20 K to 275 K) to be utilized for red and white LED fabrication. The Decay Lifetime of all the phosphor was measured. The best phosphor was used for White and Red LED fabrication.

Keywords: PL, phosphor, quantum yield, white LED

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1348 Nourishing the Hive: The Interplay of Nutrition, Gene Expression, and Queen Egg-Laying in Honeybee Colonies

Authors: Damien P. Fevre, Peter K. Dearden

Abstract:

Honeybee population sustainability is a critical concern for environmental stability and human food security. The success of a colony relies heavily on the egg-laying capacity of the queen, as it determines the production of thousands of worker bees who, in turn, perform essential functions in foraging and transforming food to make it digestible for the colony. The main sources of nutrition for honeybees are nectar, providing carbohydrates, and pollen, providing protein. This study delves into the impact of the proportion of these macronutrients on the food consumption patterns of nurse bees responsible for feeding the queen and how it affects the characteristics of the eggs produced. Using nutritional geometry, qRT-PCR, and RNA-seq analysis, this study sheds light on the pivotal role of nutrition in influencing gene expression in nurse bees, honeybee queen egg-laying capacity and embryonic development. Interestingly, while nutrition is crucial, the queen's genotype plays an even more significant role in this complex relationship, highlighting the importance of genotype-by-environment interactions. Understanding the interplay between genotype and nutrition is key to optimizing beekeeping management and strategic queen breeding practices. The findings from this study have significant implications for beekeeping practices, emphasizing the need for an appropriate nutrition to support the social nutrition of Apis mellifera. Implementing these insights can lead to improved colony health, increased productivity, and sustainable honeybee conservation efforts.

Keywords: honeybee, egg-laying, nutrition, transcriptomics

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1347 Analysis of Urban Flooding in Wazirabad Catchment of Kabul City with Help of Geo-SWMM

Authors: Fazli Rahim Shinwari, Ulrich Dittmer

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Like many megacities around the world, Kabul is facing severe problems due to the rising frequency of urban flooding. Since 2001, Kabul is experiencing rapid population growth because of the repatriation of refugees and internal migration. Due to unplanned development, green areas inside city and hilly areas within and around the city are converted into new housing towns that had increased runoff. Trenches along the roadside comprise the unplanned drainage network of the city that drains the combined sewer flow. In rainy season overflow occurs, and after streets become dry, the dust particles contaminate the air which is a major cause of air pollution in Kabul city. In this study, a stormwater management model is introduced as a basis for a systematic approach to urban drainage planning in Kabul. For this purpose, Kabul city is delineated into 8 watersheds with the help of one-meter resolution LIDAR DEM. Storm, water management model, is developed for Wazirabad catchment by using available data and literature values. Due to lack of long term metrological data, the model is only run for hourly rainfall data of a rain event that occurred in April 2016. The rain event from 1st to 3rd April with maximum intensity of 3mm/hr caused huge flooding in Wazirabad Catchment of Kabul City. Model-estimated flooding at some points of the catchment as an actual measurement of flooding was not possible; results were compared with information obtained from local people, Kabul Municipality and Capital Region Independent Development Authority. The model helped to identify areas where flooding occurred because of less capacity of drainage system and areas where the main reason for flooding is due to blockage in the drainage canals. The model was used for further analysis to find a sustainable solution to the problem. The option to construct new canals was analyzed, and two new canals were proposed that will reduce the flooding frequency in Wazirabad catchment of Kabul city. By developing the methodology to develop a stormwater management model from digital data and information, the study had fulfilled the primary objective, and similar methodology can be used for other catchments of Kabul city to prepare an emergency and long-term plan for drainage system of Kabul city.

Keywords: urban hydrology, storm water management, modeling, SWMM, GEO-SWMM, GIS, identification of flood vulnerable areas, urban flooding analysis, sustainable urban drainage

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1346 Leadership Styles in the Hotel Sector and Its Effect on Employees’ Creativity and Organizational Commitment

Authors: Hatem Radwan Ibrahim Radwan

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Leadership is crucial for hotel survival and success. It enables hotels to develop and compete effectively. This research intends to explore the implementation of six leadership styles by frontline hotel managers in four star hotels in Cairo and assess its impact on employees’ creativity and organizational commitment. The leadership patterns considered in this study includes: democratic, autocratic, laissez-faire, transformational, transactional, and ethical leaderships. Questionnaire was used as a research method to gather data. A structured survey was established and distributed on employees in Cairo’s four star hotels. A total of 284 questionnaire forms were returned and usable for statistical analysis. The results of this study identified that transactional and autocratic leadership were the prevalent styles used in four star hotels in Cairo. Two leadership styles proved to have significant high correlation and impact on employees’ creativity and organizational commitment including: transformational and democratic leadership. Besides, laissez-faire leadership was found had a smaller effect on employees’ creativity and ethical leadership had a lesser influence on employees’ commitment. The autocratic leadership had strong negative correlation and significant impact on both dependent variables. This research concludes that frontline hotel managers should adopt transformational and/or democratic leadership style in managing their subordinates.

Keywords: creativity, hotels, leadership styles, organizational commitment

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1345 Distribution, Settings, and Genesis of Burj-Dolomite Shale-Hosted Copper Mineralization in the Central Wadi Araba, Jordan

Authors: Mohammad Salem Abdullah Al-Hwaiti

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The stratiform copper mineralization of the Burj-Dolomite shale (BDS) formations of deposits shows that the copper mineralization within the BDS occurs as hydrated copper chlorides and carbonates (mainly paratacamite and malachite, respectively), while copper silicates (mainly chrysocolla and planchette) are the major ore minerals in the BDS. Thus, on the basis of the petrographic and field occurrence, three main stages operated during the development of the copper ore in the sandy and shaly lithofacies. During the first stage, amorphous chrysocolla replaced clays, feldspars, and quartz. This stage was followed by the transition from an amorphous phase to a better-crystallized phase, i.e., the formation of planchette and veins from chrysocolla. The third stage was the formation of chrysocolla along fracture planes. Other secondary minerals are pseudomalachite, dioptase, neoticite together with authigenic fluorapatite. Paratacamite and malachite, which are common in the dolomitic lithofacies, are relatively rare in the sandy and silty lithofacies. The Rare Earth Elements (REEs) patterns for the BDS showed three stages in the evolution of the Precambrian–Cambrian copper mineralization system, involving the following: (A) Epigenetic mobilization of Cu-bearing solution with formation Cu-carbonate in dolomite and limestone mineralization and Cu-silicate mineralization in sandstone; (B) Transgression of Cambrian Sea and SSC deposition of Cu-sulphides during dolomite diagenesis in the BDS Formation; continued diagenesis and oxidation leads to the formation of Cu(II) minerals; (C) Erosion and supergene enrichment of Cu in basement rocks. Detrital copper-bearing sediments accumulate in the lower Cambrian clastic sequence.

Keywords: dolomite shale, copper mineralization, REE, Jordan

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1344 Motor Vehicle Accidents During Pregnancy: Analysis of Maternal and Fetal Outcome at a University Hospital

Authors: Manjunath Attibele, Alsawafi Manal, Al Dughaishi Tamima

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Introduction: The purpose of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics and types of mechanisms of injuries caused by Motor vehicle accidents (MVA) during pregnancy. To analyze the patterns of accidents during pregnancy and its adverse consequences on both maternal and fetal outcome. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study on pregnant patients who met with MVAs The study period was from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019. All relevant data were retrieved from electronic patients’ records from the hospital information system and from the antenatal ward admission register Results: Out of 168 women who had motor vehicle accidents during the study period, of which, 39 (23.2%) women during pregnancy. Twenty-one (53.8%) women were over 30 years old. Thirty-five (89.7%) women were Omanis, and 27 (69.2%) were in their third trimester. Twenty-three (59%) of accidents happened at night, and 31 (79.5%) of them happened on a weekday. Twenty-two (56.4%) of women were driving themselves, and 24 (61.5%) of them were not using any seatbelt. Accident related abdominal & back pain was seen in 23(59%) women. Regarding the outcome of pregnancy, 23 (74.2%) had a normal vaginal delivery. The mean accident to delivery interval was 7 weeks. Thirty (96.7%) of involved newborns were relatively healthy. One woman (3.2%) had a ruptured uterusleading to fetal death (3.2%). Conclusion: This study showed that the incidence of motor vehicle accidents during pregnancy is around 23.2% . Majority had trauma-associated pain. One serious injury to a woman causing a ruptured uterus which lead to fetal death. Majority of involved newborns were relatively healthy. No reported maternal death.

Keywords: motor vehicle accidents, pregnancy, maternal outcome, fetal outcome

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1343 The Role of Uterine Artery Embolization in the Management of Postpartum Hemorrhage

Authors: Chee Wai Ku, Pui See Chin

Abstract:

As an emerging alternative to hysterectomy, uterine artery embolization (UAE) has been widely used in the management of fibroids and in controlling postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) unresponsive to other therapies. Research has shown UAE to be a safe, minimally invasive procedure with few complications and minimal effects on future fertility. We present two cases highlighting the use of UAE in preventing PPH in a patient with a large fibroid at the time of cesarean section and in the treatment of secondary PPH refractory to other therapies in another patient. We present a 36-year primiparous woman who booked at 18+6 weeks gestation with a 13.7 cm subserosal fibroid at the lower anterior wall of the uterus near the cervix and a 10.8 cm subserosal fibroid in the left wall. Prophylactic internal iliac artery occlusion balloons were placed prior to the planned classical midline cesarean section. The balloons were inflated once the baby was delivered. Bilateral uterine arteries were embolized subsequently. The estimated blood loss (EBL) was 400 mls and hemoglobin (Hb) remained stable at 10 g/DL. Ultrasound scan 2 years postnatally showed stable uterine fibroids 10.4 and 7.1 cm, which was significantly smaller than before. We present the second case of a 40-year-old G2P1 with a previous cesarean section for failure to progress. There were no antenatal problems, and the placenta was not previa. She presented with term labour and underwent an emergency cesarean section for failed vaginal birth after cesarean. Intraoperatively extensive adhesions were noted with bladder drawn high, and EBL was 300 mls. Postpartum recovery was uneventful. She presented with secondary PPH 3 weeks later complicated by hypovolemic shock. She underwent an emergency examination under anesthesia and evacuation of the uterus, with EBL 2500mls. Histology showed decidua with chronic inflammation. She was discharged well with no further PPH. She subsequently returned one week later for secondary PPH. Bedside ultrasound showed that the endometrium was thin with no evidence of retained products of conception. Uterotonics were administered, and examination under anesthesia was performed, with uterine Bakri balloon and vaginal pack insertion after. EBL was 1000 mls. There was no definite cause of PPH with no uterine atony or products of conception. To evaluate a potential cause, pelvic angiogram and super selective left uterine arteriogram was performed which showed profuse contrast extravasation and acute bleeding from the left uterine artery. Superselective embolization of the left uterine artery was performed. No gross contrast extravasation from the right uterine artery was seen. These two cases demonstrated the superior efficacy of UAE. Firstly, the prophylactic use of intra-arterial balloon catheters in pregnant patients with large fibroids, and secondly, in the diagnosis and management of secondary PPH refractory to uterotonics and uterine tamponade. In both cases, the need for laparotomy hysterectomy was avoided, resulting in the preservation of future fertility. UAE should be a consideration for hemodynamically stable patients in centres with access to interventional radiology.

Keywords: fertility preservation, secondary postpartum hemorrhage, uterine embolization, uterine fibroids

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1342 Highly Glazed Office Spaces: Simulated Visual Comfort vs Real User Experiences

Authors: Zahra Hamedani, Ebrahim Solgi, Henry Skates, Gillian Isoardi

Abstract:

Daylighting plays a pivotal role in promoting productivity and user satisfaction in office spaces. There is an ongoing trend in designing office buildings with a high proportion of glazing which relatively increases the risk of high visual discomfort. Providing a more realistic lighting analysis can be of high value at the early stages of building design when necessary changes can be made at a very low cost. This holistic approach can be achieved by incorporating subjective evaluation and user behaviour in computer simulation and provide a comprehensive lighting analysis. In this research, a detailed computer simulation model has been made using Radiance and Daysim. Afterwards, this model was validated by measurements and user feedback. The case study building is the school of science at Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, which features highly glazed office spaces. In this paper, the visual comfort predicted by the model is compared with a preliminary survey of the building users to evaluate how user behaviour such as desk position, orientation selection, and user movement caused by daylight changes and other visual variations can inform perceptions of visual comfort. This work supports preliminary design analysis of visual comfort incorporating the effects of gaze shift patterns and views with the goal of designing effective layout for office spaces.

Keywords: lighting simulation, office buildings, user behaviour, validation, visual comfort

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1341 Characterization of the Intestinal Microbiota: A Signature in Fecal Samples from Patients with Irritable Bowel Syndrome

Authors: Mina Hojat Ansari, Kamran Bagheri Lankarani, Mohammad Reza Fattahi, Ali Reza Safarpour

Abstract:

Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a common bowel disorder which is usually diagnosed through the abdominal pain, fecal irregularities and bloating. Alteration in the intestinal microbial composition is implicating to inflammatory and functional bowel disorders which is recently also noted as an IBS feature. Owing to the potential importance of microbiota implication in both efficiencies of the treatment and prevention of the diseases, we examined the association between the intestinal microbiota and different bowel patterns in a cohort of subjects with IBS and healthy controls. Fresh fecal samples were collected from a total of 50 subjects, 30 of whom met the Rome IV criteria for IBS and 20 Healthy control. Total DNA was extracted and library preparation was conducted following the standard protocol for small whole genome sequencing. The pooled libraries sequenced on an Illumina Nextseq platform with a 2 × 150 paired-end read length and obtained sequences were analyzed using several bioinformatics programs. The majority of sequences obtained in the current study assigned to bacteria. However, our finding highlighted the significant microbial taxa variation among the studied groups. The result, therefore, suggests a significant association of the microbiota with symptoms and bowel characteristics in patients with IBS. These alterations in fecal microbiota could be exploited as a biomarker for IBS or its subtypes and suggest the modification of the microbiota might be integrated into prevention and treatment strategies for IBS.

Keywords: irritable bowel syndrome, intestinal microbiota, small whole genome sequencing, fecal samples, Illumina

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1340 Depositional Environment and Diagenetic Alterations, Influences of Facies and Fine Kaolinite Formation Migration on Sandstones’ Reservoir Quality, Sarir Formation, Sirt Basin Libya

Authors: Faraj M. Elkhatri, Hana Ali Allafi

Abstract:

The spatial and temporal distribution of diagenetic alterations related impact on the reservoir quality of the Sarir Formation. (present day burial depth of about 9000 feet) Depositional facies and diagenetic alterations are the main controls on reservoir quality of Sarir Formation Sirt Ba-sin Libya; these based on lithology and grain size as well as authigenic clay mineral types and their distributions. However, petrology investigation obtained on study area with five sandstone wells concentrated on main rock components and the parameters that may have impacts on reservoirs. the main authigenic clay minerals are kaolinite and dickite, these investigations have confirmed by X.R.D analysis and clay fraction. mainly Kaolinite and Dickite were extensively presented on all of wells with high amounts. As well as trace of detrital smectite and less amounts of illitized mud-matrix are possibly find by SEM image. Thin layers of clay presented as clay-grain coatings in local depth interpreted as remains of dissolved clay matrix is partly transformed into kaolinite adjacent and towards pore throat. This also may have impacts on most of the pore throats of this sandstone which are open and relatively clean with some of fine martial have been formed on occluded pores. This material is identified by EDS analysis to be collections of not only kaolinite booklets, but also small, disaggregated kaolinite platelets derived from the dis-aggregation of larger kaolinite booklets. These patches of kaolinite not only fill this pore, but also coat some of the sur-rounding framework grains. Quartz grains often enlarged by authigenic quartz overgrowths partially occlude and re-duce porosity. Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (SEM) was conducted on the post-test samples to examine any mud filtrate particles that may be in the pore throats. Semi-qualitative elemental data on select-ed minerals observed during the SEM study were obtained using an Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) unit. The samples showed mostly clean open pore throats, with limited occlusion by kaolinite.

Keywords: por throat, formation damage, porosity lose, solids plugging

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1339 Introgressive Hybridisation between Two Widespread Sharks in the East Pacific Region

Authors: Diana A. Pazmino, Lynne vanHerwerden, Colin A. Simpfendorfer, Claudia Junge, Stephen C. Donnellan, Mauricio Hoyos-Padilla, Clinton A. J. Duffy, Charlie Huveneers, Bronwyn Gillanders, Paul A. Butcher, Gregory E. Maes

Abstract:

With just a handful of documented cases of hybridisation in cartilaginous fishes, shark hybridisation remains poorly investigated. Small amounts of admixture have been detected between Galapagos (Carcharhinus galapagensis) and dusky (Carcharhinus obscurus) sharks previously, generating a hypothesis of ongoing hybridisation. We sampled a large number of individuals from areas where both species co-occur (contact zones) across the Pacific Ocean and used both mitochondrial and nuclear-encoded SNPs to examine genetic admixture and introgression between the two species. Using empirical, analytical approaches and simulations, we first developed a set of 1,873 highly informative and reliable diagnostic SNPs for these two species to evaluate the degree of admixture between them. Overall, results indicate a high discriminatory power of nuclear SNPs (FST=0.47, p < 0.05) between the two species, unlike mitochondrial DNA (ΦST = 0.00 p > 0.05), which failed to differentiate between these species. We identified four hybrid individuals (~1%) and detected bi-directional introgression between C. galapagensis and C. obscurus in the Gulf of California along the eastern Pacific coast of the Americas. We emphasize the importance of including a combination of mtDNA and diagnostic nuclear markers to properly assess species identification, detect patterns of hybridisation, and better inform management and conservation of these sharks, especially given the morphological similarities within the genus Carcharhinus.

Keywords: elasmobranchs, single nucleotide polymorphisms, hybridisation, introgression, misidentification

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1338 Clonal Dissemination of Pseudomonas aeruginosa Isolates in Kermanshah Hospitals, West of Iran

Authors: Alisha Akya, Afsaneh salami

Abstract:

Background and Objective: Pseudomonas aeruginosa is an opportunistic pathogen associated with nosocomial infections. One of the major concerns for the treatment of P. aeruginosa infections is its resistant to a variety of antibiotics. The purpose of this study was to assess the dissemination of p. aeruginosa isolates obtained from major hospitals in Kermanshah, west of Iran. Materials and Methods: Antibiotic susceptibility testing was performed using the minimal inhibitory concentrations. Mettalo-beta-lactamase was investigated using the double disk diffusion (DDST) test and PCR. Molecular typing was performed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Results: The 60 P. aeruginosa isolates, 30 (50%) were resistant to gentamicin, 38 (63/3%) to piperacilin, 42 (70%) to ceftazidime, and 45 (75%) to cefepime. Twenty-nine (48/3%) isolates were MBLs producer based on the DDST test. Five (8/3%) isolates were positive for VIM gene and 4 of them were from burn specimens. PFGE analysis among MBLs producers revealed 12 distinct genotype patterns. A pattern covering the highest number of strains was determined as the dominant clone. Conclusions: Our study showed that P. aeruginosa strains can be spread between patients in hospitals or acquired from different environmental sources. P. aeruginosa isolates were highly resistant to antibiotics and, therefore, the susceptibility of isolates to antibiotics should be tested before treatment. Given the clinical significance of MBLs producing isolates, identification of these organisms is essential in the hospitals in order to get a better therapeutic response and control of bacterial dissemination.

Keywords: clonal dissemination, mettalo-beta-lactamase, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, PFGE

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1337 Informing the Implementation of Career Conversations in Secondary Schools for the Building of Student Career Competencies: The Case of Portugal

Authors: Cristina Isabrl de Oliveira SAntos

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The study aims to investigate how transferrable and effective career conversations could be, in the context of general track Portuguese secondary schools, with the view of improving students’ career competencies. It does so by analysing: 1) the extent to which students’ perceptions of career conversations relate with their existing career competencies, 2) the extent to which each of the parameters; perceptions of career conversations and student career competencies, relate with student situational and personal characteristics, 3) how patterns in perceptions of headteachers and of teachers at a school, regarding the implementation of career conversations, correlate to the views of students regarding career conversations and to school contextual characteristics. Data were collected from 27 secondary schools out of 32 in the same district of Aveiro, in Portugal. Interviews were performed individually, with 27 headteachers, and in groups, with a total of 10 teacher groups and 11 student groups. Survey responses were also collected from742 studentsand 310 teachers. Interview responses were coded and analysed using grounded theory principles. Data from questionnaires is currently beingscrutinised through descriptive statistics with SPSS, and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Triangulation during different stages of data analysis uses the principles of retroduction and abduction of the realist evaluation framework. Conclusions from the pilot-study indicate that student perceptions scores on content and relationship in career conversations change according to their career competencies and the type of school. Statistically significant differences in perceptions of career conversations were found for subgroups based on gender and parent educational level.

Keywords: career conversations, career competencies, secondary education, teachers

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1336 Nondestructive Electrochemical Testing Method for Prestressed Concrete Structures

Authors: Tomoko Fukuyama, Osamu Senbu

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Prestressed concrete is used a lot in infrastructures such as roads or bridges. However, poor grout filling and PC steel corrosion are currently major issues of prestressed concrete structures. One of the problems with nondestructive corrosion detection of PC steel is a plastic pipe which covers PC steel. The insulative property of pipe makes a nondestructive diagnosis difficult; therefore a practical technology to detect these defects is necessary for the maintenance of infrastructures. The goal of the research is a development of an electrochemical technique which enables to detect internal defects from the surface of prestressed concrete nondestructively. Ideally, the measurements should be conducted from the surface of structural members to diagnose non-destructively. In the present experiment, a prestressed concrete member is simplified as a layered specimen to simulate a current path between an input and an output electrode on a member surface. The specimens which are layered by mortar and the prestressed concrete constitution materials (steel, polyethylene, stainless steel, or galvanized steel plates) were provided to the alternating current impedance measurement. The magnitude of an applied electric field was 0.01-volt or 1-volt, and the frequency range was from 106 Hz to 10-2 Hz. The frequency spectrums of impedance, which relate to charge reactions activated by an electric field, were measured to clarify the effects of the material configurations or the properties. In the civil engineering field, the Nyquist diagram is popular to analyze impedance and it is a good way to grasp electric relaxation using a shape of the plot. However, it is slightly not suitable to figure out an influence of a measurement frequency which is reciprocal of reaction time. Hence, Bode diagram is also applied to describe charge reactions in the present paper. From the experiment results, the alternating current impedance method looks to be applicable to the insulative material measurement and eventually prestressed concrete diagnosis. At the same time, the frequency spectrums of impedance show the difference of the material configuration. This is because the charge mobility reflects the variety of substances and also the measuring frequency of the electric field determines migration length of charges which are under the influence of the electric field. However, it could not distinguish the differences of the material thickness and is inferred the difficulties of prestressed concrete diagnosis to identify the amount of an air void or a layer of corrosion product by the technique.

Keywords: capacitance, conductance, prestressed concrete, susceptance

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1335 A Varicella Outbreak in a Highly Vaccinated School Population in Voluntary 2-Dose Era in Beijing, China

Authors: Chengbin Wang, Li Lu, Luodan Suo, Qinghai Wang, Fan Yang, Xu Wang, Mona Marin

Abstract:

Background: Two-dose varicella vaccination has been recommended in Beijing since November 2012. We investigated a varicella outbreak in a highly vaccinated elementary school population to examine transmission patterns and risk factors for vaccine failure. Methods: A varicella case was defined as an acute generalized maculopapulovesicular rash without other apparent cause in a student attending the school from March 28 to May 17, 2015. Breakthrough varicella was defined as varicella >42 days after last vaccine dose. Vaccination information was collected from immunization records. Information on prior disease and clinical presentation was collected via survey of students’ parents. Results: Of the 1056 school students, 1028 (97.3%) reported no varicella history, of whom 364 (35.4%) had received 1-dose and 650 (63.2%) had received 2-dose varicella vaccine, for 98.6% school-wide vaccination coverage with ≥ 1 dose before the outbreak. A total of 20 cases were identified for an overall attack rate of 1.9%. The index case was in a 2-dose vaccinated student who was not isolated. The majority of cases were breakthrough (19/20, 95%) with attack rates of 7.1% (1/14), 1.6% (6/364) and 2.0% (13/650) among unvaccinated, 1-dose, and 2-dose students, respectively. Most cases had < 50 lesions (18/20, 90%). No difference was found between 1-dose and 2-dose breakthrough cases in disease severity or sociodemographic factors. Conclusion: Moderate 2-dose varicella vaccine coverage was insufficient to prevent a varicella outbreak. Two-dose breakthrough varicella is still contagious. High 2-dose varicella vaccine coverage and timely isolation of ill persons might be needed for varicella outbreak control in the 2-dose era.

Keywords: varicella, outbreak, breakthrough varicella, vaccination

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1334 Effects of Dust Storm Events on Tuberculosis Incidence Rate in Northwest of China

Authors: Yun Wang, Ruoyu Wang, Tuo Chen, Guangxiu Liu, Guodong Chen, Wei Zhang

Abstract:

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in China. China has the world's second largest tuberculosis epidemic (after India). Xinjiang almost has the highest annual attendance rate of TB in China, and the province is also famous because of its severe dust storms. The epidemic timing starts in February and ends in July, and the dust storm mainly distribute throughout the spring and early summer, which strongly indicate a close linkage between causative agent of TB and dust storm events. However, mechanisms responsible for the observed patterns are still not clearly indentified. By comparing the information on cases of TB from Centers for Disease Control of China annual reports with dust storm atmosphere datasets, we constructed the relationship between the large scale annual occurrence of TB in Xinjiang, a Northwest province of China, and dust storm occurrence. Regional atmospheric indexes of dust storm based on surface wind speed show a clear link between population dynamics of the disease and the climate disaster: the onset of epidemics and the dust storm defined by the atmospheric index share the same mean year. This study is the first that provides a clear demonstration of connections that exist between TB epidemics and dust storm events in China. The development of this study will undoubtedly help early warning for tuberculosis epidemic onset in China and help nationwide and international public health institutions and policy makers to better control TB disease in Norwest China.

Keywords: dust storm, tuberculosis, Xinjiang province, epidemic

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1333 Bayesian Flexibility Modelling of the Conditional Autoregressive Prior in a Disease Mapping Model

Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi

Abstract:

The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.

Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models

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