Search results for: tail risk

Authors: Christopher R. Triggle, Hong Ding, Khaled Machaca, Gnanapragasam Arunachalam

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The antidiabetic drug, metformin, has been in clinical use for over 50 years and remains the first choice drug for the treatment of type two diabetes. In addition to its effectiveness as an oral anti-hyperglycaemic drug metformin also possesses vasculoprotective effects that are assumed to be secondary to its ability to reduce insulin resistance and control glycated hemoglobin levels; however, recent data from our laboratory indicate that metformin also has direct vasoprotective effects that are mediated, at least in part, via the anti-ageing gene, SIRT1. Diabetes is a major risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and it is also well established that tobacco use further enhances the risk of CVD; however, it is not known whether treatment with metformin can offset the negative effects of diabetes and tobacco use on cardiac function. The current study was therefore designed to investigate 1: the effects of hyperglycaemia (HG) either alone or in the presence of elevated fatty acids (palmitate) and nicotine on the protein expression levels of the deacetylase sirtuin 1 (the protein product of SIRT1), anti-apoptotic Bcl-2, pro-apoptotic BIM and the pro-apoptotic, tumour suppressor protein, acetylated p53 in cardiomyocytes. 2: the ability of metformin to prevent the detrimental effects of HG, palmitate and nicotine on cardiomyocyte survival. Cell culture protocols were designed using a rat cardiomyocyte cell line, H9c2, either under normal glycaemic (NG) conditions of 5.5mM glucose, or hyperglycaemic conditions (HG) of 25mM glucose with, or without, added palmitate (250μM) or nicotine (1.0mM) for 24h. Immuno-blotting was used to detect the expression of sirtuin 1, Bcl-2, BIM, acetylated (Ac)-p53, p53 with β-actin used as the reference protein. Exposure to HG, palmitate, or nicotine alone significantly reduced expression of sirtuin1, Bcl-2 and raised the expression levels of acetylated p53 and BIM; however, the combination of HG, palmitate and nicotine had a synergistic effect to significantly suppress the expression levels of sirtuin 1 and Bcl-2, but further enhanced the expression of Ac-p53, and BIM. The inclusion of 1000μM, but not 50μM, metformin in the H9c2 cell culture protocol prevented the effects of HG, palmitate and nicotine on the pro-apoptotic pathways. Collectively these data indicate that metformin, in addition to its anti-hyperglycaemic and vasculoprotective properties, also has direct cardioprotective actions that offset the negative effects of hyerglycaemia, elevated free fatty acids and nicotine on cardiac cell survival. These data are of particular significance for the treatment of patients with diabetes who are also smokers as the inclusion of metformin in their therapeutic treatment plan should help reduce cardiac-related morbidity and mortality.

Keywords: apoptosis, cardiac muscle, diabetes, metformin, nicotine

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Pierre Mintom, Ebai Patricia, Merlin Dasse, Marlyse Chantal Nyangon Ndongo, Aicha Aretouyap Kouotou, Felix Essiben, Christine Fernande Nyangono Biyegue

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Background: The death of women during and after pregnancy remains a major concern in public health policy in Cameroon. Among the causes of this mortality is eclampsia which is a consequence of the Pre-eclampsia characterized by the double burden of pregnancy-induced hypertension and albuminuria in pregnant women. Objective: To determine the various factors associated with the pre-eclampsia in pregnant women of Foumban. Methodology: A cross-sectional and analytical study was carried out during the period from July to August 2020 and supplemented by another study carried out from August 05 to September 05, 2022, at the Foumban district hospital. A questionnaire was administered to pregnant women. It focused on socio-demographic parameters, the state nutritional, health status, and maternal parameters. Blood pressure was taken using an electronic blood pressure monitor, and urinary albumin was measuring using urine dipstick. Pre-eclampsia was defined by three types of double burden: double burden systolic hypertension–hyperalbuminuria (SHH), defined for SBP≥140 mmHg and hyperalbuminuria ≥1+ on urine dipstick, double burden diastolic hypertension–hyperalbuminuria (DHH), defined for PAD≥90 mmHg and hyperalbuminuria ≥1+ on the urine dipstick, and the double burden systolodiastolic arterial hypertension– hyperalbuminuria (SDHH), defined for SBP ≥ 140mmHg, PAD≥90 mmHg and hyperalbuminuria ≥1+ on urine dipstick. IBM SPSS Software was used for statistical analysis. Results: The results of this study show that the prevalence of pre-eclampsia was 17.3% for the double burden SHH, 19.9% for the double burden DHH and 14.1% for double burden SDHH. Associated factors with pre-eclampsia according to the three types of double burden were marital status (P<0.05), religion (P<0.05), history of hypertension before pregnancy (P<0.05). Associated factors for the double burden of DHH and SDHH were the nutritional status before the pregnancy (P<0.05) and the number of prenatal consultations (P<0.05). In terms of food groups, regular consumption of spices significantly increased the risk of pre-eclampsia by 5.318, 6.277 and 11.271 times respectively for the SHH, DHH and SDHH double burdens, while regular consumption of sweets regular consumption of sweets increased by 2.42 times and 2.053 times respectively the double DHH and SDHH burdens respectively. Conclusion: Our study made it possible to redefine pre-eclampsia by considering the subtypes of hypertension. Certain socio-demographic parameters and certain dietary habits influence the occurrence of pre-eclampsia characterized by the double burden Hypertension-hyperalbuminuria in pregnant women, which may later lead to the occurrence of eclampsia. Moreover, albuminemia could be a good predicitive factor of pre-eclampsia and could be explored.

Keywords: hypertension, hyperalbuminuria, pregnant women, foumban

Procedia PDF Downloads 72

Authors: Kajal Attri

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Introduction: Transgender people are considered third gender in India, although they still face identification issues and alienated from society. Furthermore, they face several challenges, including discrimination in employment, resources, education, and property as a result, most transgender people make a living through begging at traffic lights, trains, and buses; attending auspicious occasions such as childbirth and weddings; and engaging in sex work, which includes both home-based and street-based sex work. During COVID-19, maintaining social distance exacerbates transgender people's circumstances and prevents them from accessing health care services, sexual reassignment surgery, identity-based resources, government security, and financial stability. Nonetheless, the pandemic raised unfavorable attitudes about transgender persons, such as unsupportive family members and trouble forming emotional relationships. This study focuses on how we missed transgender people during COVID-19 to provide better facilities to cope with this situation when they are already the most vulnerable segment of the society. Methodology: The research was conducted using secondary data from published publications and grey literature obtained from four databases: Pubmed, Psychinfo, Science direct, and Google scholar. The literature included total 25 articles that met the inclusion criteria for a review. Result and Discussion: Transgender people, who are considered the most vulnerable sector of society, have already faced several obstacles as a result of the outbreak. The analysis underscores the difficulties that transgender persons faced during COVID-19, such as, They had trouble accessing the government's social security programmes during the lockdown, which provide rations and pensions since they lack the necessary identifying cards. The impact of COVID-19 leaves transgender people at heightened risk of poverty and ill health because they exist on the margins of society, those livelihood base on sex work, begging, and participation on auspicious occasions. They had a significant risk of contracting SARS-CoV2 because they lived in congested areas or did not have permanent shelter, and they were predominantly infected with HIV, cancer, and other non-communicable illnesses. The pandemic raised unfavorable attitudes about transgender persons, such as unsupportive family members and trouble forming emotional relationships. Conclusion: The study comes forward with useful suggestions based on content analysis and information to reduce the existing woes of transgenders during any pandemic like COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, transgender, lockdown, transwomen, stigmatization

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Authors: Faye Cosgrove, Donna Peacock

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This paper examines current state strategies for dealing with vulnerable people in police custody and identifies the underpinning discourses and practices which inform these strategies. It has previously been argued that the state has utilised contradictory and conflicting responses to the control of crime, by employing opposing strategies of denial and adaptation in order to simultaneously both display sovereignty and disclaim responsibility. This paper argues that these contradictory strategies are still being employed in contemporary criminal justice, although the focus and the purpose have now shifted. The focus is upon the ‘vulnerable’ suspect, whose social identity is as incongruous, complex and contradictory as his social environment, and the purpose is to redirect attention away from negative state practices, whilst simultaneously displaying a compassionate and benevolent countenance in order to appeal to the voting public. The findings presented here result from intensive qualitative research with police officers, with health care professionals, and with civilian volunteers who work within police custodial environments. The data has been gathered over a three-year period and includes observational and interview data which has been thematically analysed to expose the underpinning mechanisms from which the properties of the system emerge. What is revealed is evidence of contemporary state practices of denial relating to the harms of austerity and the structural relations of vulnerability, whilst simultaneously adapting through processes of ‘othering’ of the vulnerable, ‘responsibilisation’ of citizens, defining deviance down through diversionary practices, and managing success through redefining the aims of the system. The ‘vulnerable’ suspect is subject to individual pathologising, and yet the nature of risk is aggregated. ‘Vulnerable’ suspects are supported in police custody by private citizens, by multi-agency partnerships, and by for-profit organisations, while the state seeks to collate and control services, and thereby to retain a veneer of control. Late modern ambivalence to crime control and the associated contradictory practices of abjuration and adjustment have extended to state responses to vulnerable suspects. The support available in the custody environment operates to control and minimise operational and procedural risk, rather than for the welfare of the detained person, and in fact, the support available is discovered to be detrimental to the very people that it claims to benefit. The ‘vulnerable’ suspect is now subject to the bifurcated logics employed at the new limits of the sovereign state.

Keywords: custody, policing, sovereign state, vulnerability

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Authors: Nivedhitha Venkatakrishnan

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Flooding in urban areas in India has become a usual ritual phenomenon and a nightmare to most cities, which is a consequence of man-made disruption resulting in disaster. The City planning in India falls short of withstanding hydro generated disasters. This has become a barrier and challenge in the process of development put forth by urbanization, high population density, expanding informal settlements, environment degradation from uncollected and untreated waste that flows into natural drains and water bodies, this has disrupted the natural mechanism of hazard protection such as drainage channels, wetlands and floodplains. The magnitude and the impact of the mishap was high because of the failure of development policies, strategies, plans that the city had adopted. In the current scenario, cities are becoming the home for future, with economic diversification bringing in more investment into cities especially in domains of Urban infrastructure, planning and design. The uncertainty of the Urban futures in these low elevated coastal zones faces an unprecedented risk and threat. The study on focuses on three major pillars of resilience such as Recover, Resist and Restore. This process of getting ready to handle the situation bridges the gap between disaster response management and risk reduction requires a shift in paradigm. The study involved a qualitative research and a system design approach (framework). The initial stages involved mapping out of the urban water morphology with respect to the spatial growth gave an insight of the water bodies that have gone missing over the years during the process of urbanization. The major finding of the study was missing links between traditional water harvesting network was a major reason resulting in a manmade disaster. The research conceptualized the ideology of a sponge city framework which would guide the growth through institutional frameworks at different levels. The next stage was on understanding the implementation process at various stage to ensure the shift in paradigm. Demonstration of the concepts at a neighborhood level where, how, what are the functions and benefits of each component. Quantifying the design decision with rainwater harvest, surface runoff and how much water is collected and how it could be collected, stored and reused. The study came with further recommendation for Water Mitigation Spaces that will revive the traditional harvesting network.

Keywords: flooding, man made disaster, resilient city, traditional harvesting network, waterbodies

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Authors: Jasman Tuyon, Zamri Ahmad

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Behavioral asset pricing research has been gaining momentum since in 1990s. However, it is still incomplete and has been criticized for some philosophical, theoretical and model specification limitations. Due to these drawbacks, investors’ behaviors as a source of risk in behavioral asset pricing modeling still remains disputable. This paper aims to address these issues with an alternative perspective based on behavioral finance paradigm. Specifically, this paper proposes a theoretical linkages of both fundamental and behavioral risks on stock prices formation and an extension of the multifactor stock pricing model by combining multi-factor fundamentals and behavioral risks factors.

Keywords: behavioral finance, multifactor asset pricing, behavioral risks, fundamental risks

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Authors: Athar Imtiaz, Abduljalil S. Al-Mudhary, Taha Mirhashemi, Roslina Ibrahim

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Information Technology (IT) is being used by almost all organizations throughout the world. However, its success at supporting and improving business is debatable. There is always the risk of IT project failure and studies have proven that a large number of IT projects indeed do fail. There are many components that further the success of IT projects; these have been studied in previous studies. Studies have found the most necessary components for success in software development projects, executive information systems etc. In this study, previous literature that has looked into these success promoting factors have been critically reviewed and analyzed. Fifteen critical Success Factors (CSF) of IT projects were enlisted and examined. These factors can be applied to all IT projects and is not specific to a particular type of IT/IS project. A hypothesis was also generated after the evaluation of the factors.

Keywords: critical success factors, CSF, IT projects, IS projects, software development projects

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Authors: M. Aouimeur

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The environmental risks of a dam and particularly the security in the Valley downstream of it,, is a very complex problem. Integrated management and risk-sharing become more and more indispensable. The definition of "vulnerability “concept can provide assistance to controlling the efficiency of protective measures and the characterization of each valley relatively to the floods's risk. Security can be enhanced through the integrated land management. The social sciences may be associated to the operational systems of civil protection, in particular warning networks. The passage of extreme floods in the site of the dam causes the rupture of this structure and important damages downstream the dam. The river bed could be damaged by erosion if it is not well protected. Also, we may encounter some scouring and flooding problems in the downstream area of the dam. Therefore, the protection of the dam is crucial. It must have an energy dissipator in a specific place. The basin of dissipation plays a very important role for the security of the dam and the protection of the environment against floods downstream the dam. It allows to dissipate the potential energy created by the dam with the passage of the extreme flood on the weir and regularize in a natural manner and with more security the discharge or elevation of the water plan on the crest of the weir, also it permits to reduce the speed of the flow downstream the dam, in order to obtain an identical speed to the river bed. The problem of the dimensioning of a classic dissipation basin is in the determination of the necessary parameters for the dimensioning of this structure. This communication presents a simple graphical method, that is fast and complete, and a methodology which determines the main features of the hydraulic jump, necessary parameters for sizing the classic dissipation basin. This graphical method takes into account the constraints imposed by the reality of the terrain or the practice such as the one related to the topography of the site, the preservation of the environment equilibrium and the technical and economic side.This methodology is to impose the loss of head DH dissipated by the hydraulic jump as a hypothesis (free design) to determine all the others parameters of classical dissipation basin. We can impose the loss of head DH dissipated by the hydraulic jump that is equal to a selected value or to a certain percentage of the upstream total head created by the dam. With the parameter DH+ =(DH/k),(k: critical depth),the elaborate graphical representation allows to find the other parameters, the multiplication of these parameters by k gives the main characteristics of the hydraulic jump, necessary parameters for the dimensioning of classic dissipation basin.This solution is often preferred for sizing the dissipation basins of small concrete dams. The results verification and their comparison to practical data, confirm the validity and reliability of the elaborate graphical method.

Keywords: dimensioning, energy dissipation basin, hydraulic jump, protection of the environment

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Authors: Encarnación Álvarez, Rosa M. García-Fernández, Juan F. Muñoz, Francisco J. Blanco-Encomienda

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The problem of estimating a proportion has important applications in the field of economics, and in general, in many areas such as social sciences. A common application in economics is the estimation of the headcount index. In this paper, we define the general headcount index as a proportion. Furthermore, we introduce a new quantitative method for estimating the headcount index. In particular, we suggest to use the logistic regression estimator for the problem of estimating the headcount index. Assuming a real data set, results derived from Monte Carlo simulation studies indicate that the logistic regression estimator can be more accurate than the traditional estimator of the headcount index.

Keywords: poverty line, poor, risk of poverty, Monte Carlo simulations, sample

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Authors: Matthew Cardeiro, Amalia D. Ardeljan, Lexi Frankel, Dianela Prado Escobar, Catalina Molnar, Omar M. Rashid

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Introduction: Enterococci comprise the natural flora of nearly all animals and are ubiquitous in food manufacturing and probiotics. However, its role in the microbiome remains controversial. The gut microbiome has shown to play an important role in immunology and cancer. Further, recent data has suggested a relationship between gut microbiota and breast cancer. These studies have shown that the gut microbiome of patients with breast cancer differs from that of healthy patients. Research regarding enterococcus infection and its sequala is limited, and further research is needed in order to understand the relationship between infection and cancer. Enterococcus may prevent the development of breast cancer (BC) through complex immunologic and microbiotic adaptations following an enterococcus infection. This study investigated the effect of enterococcus infection and the incidence of BC. Methods: A retrospective study (January 2010- December 2019) was provided by a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) compliant national database and conducted using a Humans Health Insurance Database. International Classification of Disease (ICD) 9th and 10th codes, Current Procedural Terminology (CPT), and National Drug Codes were used to identify BC diagnosis and enterococcus infection. Patients were matched for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), antibiotic treatment, and region of residence. Chi-squared, logistic regression, and odds ratio were implemented to assess the significance and estimate relative risk. Results: 671 out of 28,518 (2.35%) patients with a prior enterococcus infection and 1,459 out of 28,518 (5.12%) patients without enterococcus infection subsequently developed BC, and the difference was statistically significant (p<2.2x10⁻¹⁶). Logistic regression also indicated enterococcus infection was associated with a decreased incidence of BC (RR=0.60, 95% CI [0.57, 0.63]). Treatment for enterococcus infection was analyzed and controlled for in both enterococcus infected and noninfected populations. 398 out of 11,523 (3.34%) patients with a prior enterococcus infection and treated with antibiotics were compared to 624 out of 11,523 (5.41%) patients with no history of enterococcus infection (control) and received antibiotic treatment. Both populations subsequently developed BC. Results remained statistically significant (p<2.2x10-16) with a relative risk of 0.57 (95% CI [0.54, 0.60]). Conclusion & Discussion: This study shows a statistically significant correlation between enterococcus infection and a decrease incidence of breast cancer. Further exploration is needed to identify and understand not only the role of enterococcus in the microbiome but also the protective mechanism(s) and impact enterococcus infection may have on breast cancer development. Ultimately, further research is needed in order to understand the complex and intricate relationship between the microbiome, immunology, bacterial infections, and carcinogenesis.

Keywords: breast cancer, enterococcus, immunology, infection, microbiome

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Authors: Mirjana Dokmanovic

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In recent years, the disadvantaged and marginalised position of rural women in the Republic of Serbia has been recognised in a number of national strategies and policy papers. A number of measures have been adopted by the government aimed at economic empowerment of rural women and eliminating barriers to accessing decision making and economic and social opportunities. However, their implementation pace is still slow. The aim of the paper is to indicate the necessity of a comprehensive policy approach to eliminating discrimination against rural women that would include policy and financial commitments for enhancing agricultural and rural development as a whole, instead of taking fragmented measures targeting consequences instead of causes. The paper introduces main findings of the study of challenges, constraints, and opportunities of rural women in Serbia to enjoy their economic and social rights. The research methodology included the desk research and the qualitative analysis of the available data, statistics, policy papers, studies, and reports produced by the government, ministries and other governmental bodies, independent human rights bodies, and civil society organizations (CSOs). The findings of the study reveal that rural women are at great risk of poverty, particularly in remote areas, and when getting old or widowed. Young rural women working in agriculture are also in unfavorable position, as they do not have opportunities to enjoy their rights during pregnancy and maternity leave, childcare leave and leave due to the special care of a child. The study indicates that the main causes of their unfavorable position are related to the prevalent patriarchal surrounding and economic and social underdevelopment of rural areas in Serbia. Gender inequalities have been particularly present in accessing land and property rights, inheritance, education, social protection, healthcare, and decision making. Women living in the rural areas are exposed at high risk of discrimination in all spheres of public and private life that undermine their enjoyment of basic economic, social and cultural rights. The vulnerability of rural women to discrimination increases in cases of the intersectionality of other grounds of discrimination, such as disability, ethnicity, age, health condition and sexual discrimination. If they are victims of domestic violence, their experience lack of access to shelters and protection services. Despite the State’s recognition of the marginalized position of rural women, there is still a lack of a comprehensive policy approach to improving the economic and social position of rural women.

Keywords: agricultural and rural development, care economy, discrimination against women, economic and social rights, feminization of poverty, Republic of Serbia, rural women

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Authors: Krithika Lakshmi Sathiya Moorthy

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Introduction: Young people’s attitude towards Intimate partner violence (IPV) is likely to influence their indulgence in or abstinence from IPV in future. We aimed to assess the knowledge and attitudes of college students in a south Indian city regarding IPV, its associated factors and redressal mechanisms. Methods: A convenient sample of 247 students, pursuing medicine and engineering, participated in this analytical cross sectional study. They responded to a self-administered questionnaire developed and pretested for this study. The questionnaire comprises statements from a third person’s perspective and vignettes to reduce social desirability bias. Clearance was obtained from the Institute Ethical Committee of Velammal Medical College Hospital and Research Institute, Madurai, India. Data were entered in Epidata Entry v3.1, Odense, Denmark and analysed using SPSS v20.0. Results: Among 247 students, 116 (47%) were males and 59 (24.9%) hailed from rural areas. About 18% (43) of students believed that IPV was a problem only among females. Almost half of the students had witnessed IPV; at home between their parents (9.7%), other family members (13.4%), in their neighbourhood (13%) or public places (15%). Only 118 (47.8%) were aware that a law was in place in India to address IPV. The perceived risk factors for IPV were alcoholic spouse (78.9%), low income families (53.8%), personality traits (52.2%) and dowry system (51%). A sizeable number of students (38.4%) believed that some amount of physical violence was allowable in a marital relationship while 57.6% even considered IPV as an expression of love. Males as compared to females were more in agreement with negative gender stereotypes such as husband can– ‘threaten wife to ensure welfare of family’ (55% vs. 34%, p < 0.001), ‘spy on wife to check fidelity’ (41% vs. 27%, p < 0.001), ‘financially deprive housewife to punish’ (13% vs. 3.8%, p=0.001) and agreed with the statement that it is ‘duty of wife to comply with demands for sex from the husband’ (9.5% vs 4.6%, p=0.3). About 32% males and 25.6% females foresaw themselves as perpetrators of IPV in future. Conclusion: Knowledge about IPV and the associated risk factors among the study population was satisfactory. However, there was widespread acceptance of negative societal gender stereotypes, more so among males and some degrees of IPV were acceptable between married couples. The study advocates the need to halt the propagation of negative gender stereotypes in the impressionable young minds and the necessity to spread the awareness that no degree of IPV is acceptable. This knowledge is also required to plan the content and choose the appropriate media to effectively communicate the awareness about IPV among young persons.

Keywords: attitude, India, intimate partner violence, knowledge, students

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Authors: S. Cheng, C. Catallo

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Introduction: Canada's healthcare and social services systems are failing high risk, vulnerable older adults. Care for vulnerable older Canadians (65 and older) is not optimal in Canada. It does not address the care needs of vulnerable, high risk adults using a holistic approach. Given the growing aging population, and the care needs for seniors with complex conditions is one of the highest in Canada's health care system, there is a sense of urgency to optimize care. Integration of health and social services is an emerging trend in Canada when compared to European countries. There is no common and universal understanding of healthcare and social services integration within the country. Consequently, a clear understanding and definition of integrated health and social services are absent in Canada. Objectives: A study was undertaken to develop a case definition for integrated health and social care initiatives that serve older adults, which was then tested against three Canadian integrated initiatives. Methodology: A limited literature review was undertaken to identify common characteristics of integrated health and social care initiatives that serve older adults, and comprised both scientific and grey literature, in order to develop a case definition. Three Canadian integrated initiatives that are located in the province of Ontario, were identified using an online search and a screening process. They were surveyed to determine if the literature-based integration definition applied to them. Results: The literature showed that there were 24 common healthcare and social services integration characteristics that could be categorized into ten themes: 1) patient-care approach; 2) program goals; 3) measurement; 4) service and care quality; 5) accountability and responsibility; 6) information sharing; 7) Decision-making and problem-solving; 8) culture; 9) leadership; and 10) staff and professional interaction. The three initiatives showed agreement on all the integration characteristics except for those characteristics associated with healthcare and social care professional interaction, collaborative leadership and shared culture. This disagreement may be due to several reasons, including the existing governance divide between the healthcare and social services sectors within the province of Ontario that has created a ripple effect in how professions in the two different sectors interact. In addition, the three initiatives may be at maturing levels of integration, which may explain disagreement on the characteristics associated with leadership and culture. Conclusions: The development of a case definition for healthcare and social services integration that incorporates common integration characteristics can act as a useful instrument in identifying integrated healthcare and social services, particularly given the emerging and evolutionary state of this phenomenon within Canada.

Keywords: Canada, case definition, healthcare and social services integration, integration, seniors health, services delivery

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Authors: Tian Lan

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Arbitrageurs participate in a variety of techniques in response to the existence of fluctuating sentiment, resulting in sparse sentiment exposures. This paper found that Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) funds in the top decile rated by sentiment beta outperformed those in the bottom decile by 0.33% per month on a risk-adjusted basis, with the difference being larger among skilled managers. This paper also discovered that around ten percent of Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) funds could accurately predict market sentiment, which has a positive correlation with fund sentiment beta and acts as a determinant in fund performance. Instead of betting against mispricing, this research demonstrates that a competent manager can achieve remarkable returns by forecasting and reacting to shifts in investor sentiment.

Keywords: investment sentiment, CTA fund, market timing, fund performance

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Authors: Adama NS Bah

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Background: Loss of teeth has a negative influence on essential oral functions such as phonetics, mastication, and aesthetics. Dentists treat people with prosthodontic rehabilitation to recover essential oral functions. The oral health quality of life inventory reflects the success of prosthodontic rehabilitation. In many countries, the current conventional care delivered to replace missing teeth for adult patients involves the provision of removable partial dentures. Aim: The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to gather the best available evidence to determine patients’ oral health-related quality of life improvement after treatment with partial dentures. Methods: We searched electronic databases from January 2010 to September 2019, including PubMed, ProQuest, Science Direct, Scopus and Google Scholar. In this paper, studies were included only if the average age was 30 years and above and also published in English. Two reviewers independently screened and selected all the references based on inclusion criteria using the PRISMA guideline, and assessed the quality of the included references using the Joanna Briggs Institute quality assessment tools. Data extracted were analyzed in RevMan 5.0 software, the heterogeneity between the studies was assessed using Forest plot, I2 statistics and chi-square test with a statistical P value less than 0.05 to indicate statistical significance. Random effect models were used in case of moderate or high heterogeneity. Four studies were included in the systematic review and three studies were pooled for meta-analysis. Results: Four studies included in the systematic review and three studies included in the meta-analysis with a total of 285 patients comparing the improvement in oral health-related quality of life before and after rehabilitation with partial denture, the pooled results showed a better improvement of oral health-related quality of life after treatment with partial dentures (mean difference 5.25; 95% CI [3.81, 6.68], p < 0.00001) favoring the wearing of partial dentures. In order to ascertain the reliability of the included studies for meta-analysis risk of bias was assessed and found to be low in all included studies for meta-analysis using the Cochrane collaboration tool for risk of bias assessment. Conclusion: There is high evidence that rehabilitation with partial dentures can improve the patient’s oral health-related quality of life measured with Oral Health Impact Profile 14. This review has clinical evidence value for dentists treating the expanding vulnerable adult population.

Keywords: meta-analysis, oral health impact profile, partial dentures, systematic review

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Authors: Martonovich Noa, Maman David, Alfandari Liad, Behrbalk Eyal.

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Introduction: The human body is designed for upright standing and walking, with the lower extremities and axial skeleton supporting weight-bearing. Constant weight-bearing on joints not meant for this action can lead to various pathologies, as seen in wheelchair users. Handstand practitioners use their wrists as weight-bearing joints during activities, but little is known about wrist injuries in this population. This study aims to investigate the epidemiology of wrist pain among handstand practitioners, as no such data currently exist. Methods: The study is a cross-sectional online survey conducted among athletes who regularly practice handstands. Participants were asked to complete a three-part questionnaire regarding their workout regimen, training habits, and history of wrist pain. The inclusion criteria were athletes over 18 years old who practice handstands more than twice a month for at least 4 months. All data were collected using Google Forms, organized and anonymized using Microsoft Excel, and analyzed using IBM SPSS 26.0. Descriptive statistics were calculated, and potential risk factors were tested using asymptotic t-tests and Fisher's tests. Differences were considered significant when p < 0.05. Results: This study surveyed 402 athletes who regularly practice handstands to investigate the prevalence of chronic wrist pain and potential risk factors. The participants had a mean age of 31.3 years, with most being male and having an average of 5 years of training experience. 56% of participants reported chronic wrist pain, and 14.4% reported a history of distal radial fracture. Yoga was the most practiced form, followed by Capoeira. No significant differences were found in demographic data between participants with and without chronic wrist pain, and no significant associations were found between chronic wrist pain prevalence and warm-up routines or protective aids. Conclusion: The lower half of the body is meant to handle weight-bearing and impact, while transferring the load to upper extremities can lead to various pathologies. Athletes who perform handstands are particularly prone to chronic wrist pain, which affects over half of them. Warm-up sessions and protective instruments like wrist braces do not seem to prevent chronic wrist pain, and there are no significant differences in age or training volume between athletes with and without the condition. Further research is needed to understand the causes of chronic wrist pain in athletes, given the growing popularity of sports and activities that can cause this type of injury.

Keywords: handstand, handbalance, wrist pain, hand and wrist surgery, yoga, calisthenics, circus, capoeira, movement.

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Authors: Alhaji Khuzaima Mohammed Osman, Zaeem Sheikh Abdul Wadudi Haruna

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This article aims to explore the crucial link between counter-terrorism efforts and the preservation of human security. As acts of terrorism continue to pose significant threats to societies worldwide, it is imperative to develop effective strategies that mitigate risks while safeguarding the rights and well-being of individuals. This paper discusses key aspects of counter-terrorism and human security, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach that integrates intelligence, prevention, response, and resilience-building measures. By highlighting successful case studies and lessons learned, this article provides valuable insights for policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and practitioners in their quest to address terrorism and foster human security.

Keywords: human security, risk mitigation, terrorist activities, civil liberties

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Authors: R. Sanchez-Salcedo, N. H. Voelcker

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Currently, low breast milk production in women is one of the leading health complications in infants. Recently, It has been demonstrated that exclusive breastfeeding, especially up to a minimum of 6 months, significantly reduces respiratory and gastrointestinal infections, which are the main causes of death in infants. However, the current data shows that a high percentage of women stop breastfeeding their children because they perceive an inadequate supply of milk, and only 45% of children are breastfeeding under 6 months. It is, therefore, clear the necessity to design and develop a biosensor that is sensitive and selective enough to identify and validate a panel of milk biomarkers that allow the early diagnosis of this condition. In this context, electrochemical biosensors could be a powerful tool for assessing all the requirements in terms of reliability, selectivity, sensitivity, cost efficiency and potential for multiplex detection. Moreover, they are suitable for the development of POC devices and wearable sensors. In this work, we report the development of two types of sensing platforms towards several biomarkers, including miRNAs and hormones present in breast milk and dysregulated in this pathological condition. The first type of sensing platform consists of an enzymatic sensor for the detection of lactose, one of the main components in milk. In this design, we used gold surface as an electrochemical transducer due to the several advantages, such as the variety of strategies available for its rapid and efficient functionalization with bioreceptors or capture molecules. For the second type of sensing platform, nanoporous silicon film (pSi) was chosen as the electrode material for the design of DNA sensors and aptasensors targeting miRNAs and hormones, respectively. pSi matrix offers a large superficial area with an abundance of active sites for the immobilization of bioreceptors and tunable characteristics, which increase the selectivity and specificity, making it an ideal alternative material. The analytical performance of the designed biosensors was not only characterized in buffer but also validated in minimally treated breastmilk samples. We have demonstrated the potential of an electrochemical transducer on pSi and gold surface for monitoring clinically relevant biomarkers associated with the heightened risk of low milk production in women. This approach, in which the nanofabrication techniques and the functionalization methods were optimized to increase the efficacy of the biosensor highly provided a foundation for further research and development of targeted diagnosis strategies.

Keywords: biosensors, electrochemistry, early diagnosis, clinical markers, miRNAs

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Authors: Tessa Sellis, Marike A. Wierda, Elke Tichelman, Mirjam T. Van Lohuizen, Marjolein Berger, François Schellevis, Claudi Bockting, Lilian Peters, Huib Burger

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Introduction: Most women develop a healthy bond with their children, however, adequate mother-to-infant bonding cannot be taken for granted. Mother-to-infant bonding refers to the feelings and emotions experienced by the mother towards her child. It is an ongoing process that starts during pregnancy and develops during the first year postpartum and likely throughout early childhood. The prevalence of inadequate bonding ranges from 7 to 11% in the first weeks postpartum. An impaired mother-to-infant bond can cause long-term complications for both mother and child. Very little research has been conducted on the direct relationship between the personality of the mother and mother-to-infant bonding. This study explores the associations between maternal personality and postnatal mother-to-infant bonding. The main hypothesis is that there is a relationship between neuroticism and mother-to-infant bonding. Methods: Data for this study were used from the Pregnancy Anxiety and Depression Study (2010-2014), which examined symptoms of and risk factors for anxiety or depression during pregnancy and the first year postpartum of 6220 pregnant women who received primary, secondary or tertiary care in the Netherlands. The study was expanded in 2015 to investigate postnatal mother-to-infant bonding. For the current research 3836 participants were included. During the first trimester of gestation, baseline characteristics, as well as personality, were measured through online questionnaires. Personality was measured by the NEO Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI), which covers the big five of personality (neuroticism, extraversion, openness, altruism and conscientiousness). Mother-to-infant bonding was measured postpartum by the Postpartum Bonding Questionnaire (PBQ). Univariate linear regression analysis was performed to estimate the associations. Results: 5% of the PBQ-respondents reported impaired bonding. A statistically significant association was found between neuroticism and mother-to-infant bonding (p < .001): mothers scoring higher on neuroticism, reported a lower score on mother-to-infant bonding. In addition, a positive correlation was found between the personality traits extraversion (b: -.081), openness (b: -.014), altruism (b: -.067), conscientiousness (b: -.060) and mother-to-infant bonding. Discussion: This study is one of the first to demonstrate a direct association between the personality of the mother and mother-to-infant bonding. A statistically significant relationship has been found between neuroticism and mother-to-infant bonding, however, the percentage of variance predictable by a personality dimension is very small. This study has examined one part of the multi-factorial topic of mother-to-infant bonding and offers more insight into the rarely investigated and complex matter of mother-to-infant bonding. For midwives, it is important recognize the risks for impaired bonding and subsequently improve policy for women at risk.

Keywords: mother-to-infant bonding, personality, postpartum, pregnancy

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Authors: Ouazoul Abdelouahd, Jemjami Nadia

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The concept of well-being at work is one of today's significant challenges in maintaining quality of life and managing psycho-social risks at work. Indeed, work in the sports sector has evolved, and this exponential evolution, marked by increasing demands and psychological, physical, and social challenges, which sometimes exceed the resources of sports actors, influences their sense of well-being at work. Well-being and burnout as antagonists provide information on the quality of working life in sports. The Basic aim of this literature review is to analyze the scientific corpus dealing with the subject of well-being at work in the sports sector while exploring the link between sports burnout and well-being. The results reveal the richness of the conceptual approaches and the difficulties of implementing them. Prospects for future research have, therefore, been put forward.

Keywords: Well-being, quality of life, Burnout, ; psycho-social risk, Sports sector

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Authors: Haoming Ma, Guo Yu, Peiru Zhou

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Background: Previous studies show that dysglycemia, mostly hyperglycemia, hypoglycemia and glycemic variability(GV), are associated with excess mortality in critically ill patients, especially those without diabetes. Glycemic variability is an increasingly important measure of glucose control in the intensive care unit (ICU) due to this association. However, there is limited data pertaining to the relationship between different clinical factors and glycemic variability and clinical outcomes categorized by their DM status. This retrospective study of 958 intensive care unit(ICU) patients was conducted to investigate the relationship between GV and outcome in critically ill patients and further to determine the significant factors that contribute to the glycemic variability. Aim: We hypothesize that the factors contributing to mortality and the glycemic variability are different from critically ill patients with or without diabetes. And the primary aim of this study was to determine which dysglycemia (hyperglycemia\hypoglycemia\glycemic variability) is independently associated with an increase in mortality among critically ill patients in different groups (DM/Non-DM). Secondary objectives were to further investigate any factors affecting the glycemic variability in two groups. Method: A total of 958 diabetic and non-diabetic patients with severe diseases in the ICU were selected for this retrospective analysis. The glycemic variability was defined as the coefficient of variation (CV) of blood glucose. The main outcome was death during hospitalization. The secondary outcome was GV. The logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with mortality. The relationships between GV and other variables were investigated using linear regression analysis. Results: Information on age, APACHE II score, GV, gender, in-ICU treatment and nutrition was available for 958 subjects. Predictors remaining in the final logistic regression model for mortality were significantly different in DM/Non-DM groups. Glycemic variability was associated with an increase in mortality in both DM(odds ratio 1.05; 95%CI:1.03-1.08,p＜0.001) or Non-DM group(odds ratio 1.07; 95%CI:1.03-1.11,p=0.002). For critically ill patients without diabetes, factors associated with glycemic variability included APACHE II score(regression coefficient, 95%CI:0.29,0.22-0.36,p＜0.001), Mean BG(0.73,0.46-1.01,p＜0.001), total parenteral nutrition(2.87,1.57-4.17,p＜0.001), serum albumin(-0.18,-0.271 to -0.082,p＜0.001), insulin treatment(2.18,0.81-3.55,p=0.002) and duration of ventilation(0.006,0.002-1.010,p=0.003).However, for diabetes patients, APACHE II score(0.203,0.096-0.310,p＜0.001), mean BG(0.503,0.138-0.869,p=0.007) and duration of diabetes(0.167,0.033-0.301,p=0.015) remained as independent risk factors of GV. Conclusion: We found that the relation between dysglycemia and mortality is different in the diabetes and non-diabetes groups. And we confirm that GV was associated with excess mortality in DM or Non-DM patients. Furthermore, APACHE II score, Mean BG, total parenteral nutrition, serum albumin, insulin treatment and duration of ventilation were significantly associated with an increase in GV in Non-DM patients. While APACHE II score, mean BG and duration of diabetes (years) remained as independent risk factors of increased GV in DM patients. These findings provide important context for further prospective trials investigating the effect of different clinical factors in critically ill patients with or without diabetes.

Keywords: diabetes, glycemic variability, predictors, severe disease

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Authors: Temmuz Gönç Şavran

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Migration is a multidimensional and health-related concept that has important consequences for both migrants and the host society. Due to past conflicts and poor living conditions that lead to migration, the dangerous and difficult journey, and the problems they face upon arrival in the destination country, migrants are at higher risk for poor health. Health is a human right, and all societies and communities, including migrant groups, must receive adequate health care. In addition, the health of migrants must be improved to protect the health of the host society and ensure social integration. The main determinants of health are employment, income, education, good housing, and adequate nutrition. It can be said that migrants are among the most vulnerable groups in society in these respects, and migrant health is negatively affected by this situation. Rigid immigration policies or financial constraints in destination countries, the complexity and bureaucracy of health systems, the low health literacy of migrant groups, and the inadequate provision of translation services in health facilities are among the other main factors affecting migrant health. Migrants are also at risk of stigma, exclusion, detection, and deportation when seeking medical care. Based on data from a qualitative study with a descriptive case study design, this paper aims to highlight and sociologically assess the health-related problems of international migrants in Eskisehir, Turkey. The sample consists of 30 international migrants living in Eskisehir, two-thirds of whom are from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Those who are citizens of the Republic of Turkey are excluded from the study; otherwise, the legal status of the participants is not considered in the selection of the sample. This makes it possible to distinguish the different needs and problems of subgroups and to consider migrant health as a comprehensive concept. The research is supported by Anadolu University in Eskisehir, and data will be collected through semi-structured interviews between November 2022 and February 2023. With holistic sociology of health approach, this study considers migrant health as a comprehensive sociological concept. It aims to reveal the health-related resources and needs of the international migrant groups living in the center of Eskisehir, the problems they encounter in meeting these needs, and the strategies they use to solve these problems. The results are expected to show that the health of migrants is not only influenced by legislation but is shaped by many processes, from housing conditions to cultural habits. It is expected that the results will also raise awareness of discrimination, exclusion, marginalization, and hate speech in migrants’ access to health services.

Keywords: migrant health, sociology of health, sociology of migration, Turkey, refugees

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Authors: Isabel Brás, Artur Figueirinha, Bruno Esteves, Luísa P. Cruz-Lopes

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The agriculture lignocellulosic by-products are receiving increased attention, namely in the search for filter materials that retain contaminants from water. These by-products, specifically almond and hazelnut shells are abundant in Portugal once almond and hazelnuts production is a local important activity. Hazelnut and almond shells have as main constituents lignin, cellulose and hemicelluloses, water soluble extractives and tannins. Along the adsorption of heavy metals from contaminated waters, water soluble compounds can leach from shells and have a negative impact in the environment. Usually, the chemical characterization of treated water by itself may not show environmental impact caused by the discharges when parameters obey to legal quality standards for water. Only biological systems can detect the toxic effects of the water constituents. Therefore, the evaluation of toxicity by biological tests is very important when deciding the suitability for safe water discharge or for irrigation applications. The main purpose of the present work was to assess the potential impacts of waters after been treated for heavy metal removal by hazelnut and almond shells adsorption systems, with short term acute toxicity tests. To conduct the study, water at pH 6 with 25 mg.L-1 of lead, was treated with 10 g of shell per litre of wastewater, for 24 hours. This procedure was followed for each bark. Afterwards the water was collected for toxicological assays; namely bacterial resistance, seed germination, Lemna minor L. test and plant grow. The effect in isolated bacteria strains was determined by disc diffusion method and the germination index of seed was evaluated using lettuce, with temperature and humidity germination control for 7 days. For aquatic higher organism, Lemnas were used with 4 days contact time with shell solutions, in controlled light and temperature. For terrestrial higher plants, biomass production was evaluated after 14 days of tomato germination had occurred in soil, with controlled humidity, light and temperature. Toxicity tests of water treated with shells revealed in some extent effects in the tested organisms, with the test assays showing a close behaviour as the control, leading to the conclusion that its further utilization may not be considered to create a serious risk to the environment.

Keywords: lignocellulosic wastes, adsorption, acute toxicity tests, risk assessment

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Authors: Ouazoul Abdeloauhd, Jemjami Nadia

Abstract:

The concept of well-being at work is one of today's significant challenges in maintaining quality of life and managing psycho-social risks at work. Indeed, work in the sports sector has evolved, and this exponential evolution, marked by increasing demands and psychological, physical, and social challenges, which sometimes exceed the resources of sports actors, influences their sense of well-being at work. Well-being and burnout as antagonists provide information on the quality of working life in sports. The Basic aim of this literature review is to analyze the scientific corpus dealing with the subject of well-being at work in the sports sector while exploring the link between sports burnout and well-being. The results reveal the richness of the conceptual approaches and the difficulties of implementing them. Prospects for future research have, therefore, been put forward.

Keywords: well-being, burnout, quality of life, psycho-social risk, work on sports sector

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Authors: Salina Y. Saddick

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Mild gestational hyperglycemia (MGH) is a very common complication of pregnancy that is characterized by intolerance to glucose. The association of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism to MGH has been previously reported. In this study, we evaluated the association between ACE polymorphism and the risk of MGH in a Saudi population. We conducted a case-control study in a population of 100 MGH patients and 100 control subjects. ACE gene polymorphism was analyzed by the novel approach of tetraprimer amplification refractory mutation system (ARMS)-polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The frequency of ACE polymorphism was not associated with either alleles or genotypes in MGH patients. Glucose concentration was found to be significantly associated with the MGH group. Our study suggests that ACE genotypes were not associated with ACE polymorphism in a Saudi population.

Keywords: MGH, ACE, insertion polymorphism, deletion polymorphism

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Authors: Sivilai Jayankura

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This research aims to study the religious economic behavior that effect the lifestyle of the people in Dusit area. The result shows that religious identity salience makes people increase contributions to public goods. Most of the Buddhism decrease contributions to public goods, expect others to contribute less to public goods, and become less risk averse. We find no evidence of religious identity salience effects on disutility of work effort, discount rates or generosity in life spending. Mostly the people like to make merit in the temple during special day of religion. The atmosphere in the temple leads the people like to travel and merit at the temple near their home.

Keywords: Dusit province, identity, lifestyle, religious economic behavior

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Authors: Funda Kul, İsmail Gür

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Pension scheme providers have to price mortality risk by accurate mortality forecasting method. There are many mortality-forecasting methods constructed and used in literature. The Lee-Carter model is the first model to consider stochastic improvement trends in life expectancy. It is still precisely used. Mortality forecasting is done by mortality index in the Lee-Carter model. It is assumed that mortality index fits ARIMA time series model. In this paper, we propose and use dynamic normal inverse gaussian distribution to modeling mortality indes in the Lee-Carter model. Using population mortality data for Italy, France, and Turkey, the model is forecasting capability is investigated, and a comparative analysis with other models is ensured by some well-known benchmarking criterions.

Keywords: mortality, forecasting, lee-carter model, normal inverse gaussian distribution

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Authors: Vincent Andrew Cappellano

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In the early phases of critical infrastructure system design, translating distributed computing requirements to an architecture has risk given the multitude of approaches (e.g., cloud, edge, fog). In many systems, a single requirement for system uptime / availability is used to encompass the system’s intended operations. However, when architected systems may perform to those availability requirements only during normal operations and not during component failure, or during outages caused by adversary attacks on critical infrastructure (e.g., physical, cyber). System designers lack a structured method to evaluate availability requirements against candidate system architectures through deep degradation scenarios (i.e., normal ops all the way down to significant damage of communications or physical nodes). This increases risk of poor selection of a candidate architecture due to the absence of insight into true performance for systems that must operate as a piece of critical infrastructure. This research effort proposes a process to analyze critical infrastructure system availability requirements and a candidate set of systems architectures, producing a metric assessing these architectures over a spectrum of degradations to aid in selecting appropriate resilient architectures. To accomplish this effort, a set of simulation and evaluation efforts are undertaken that will process, in an automated way, a set of sample requirements into a set of potential architectures where system functions and capabilities are distributed across nodes. Nodes and links will have specific characteristics and based on sampled requirements, contribute to the overall system functionality, such that as they are impacted/degraded, the impacted functional availability of a system can be determined. A machine learning reinforcement-based agent will structurally impact the nodes, links, and characteristics (e.g., bandwidth, latency) of a given architecture to provide an assessment of system functional uptime/availability under these scenarios. By varying the intensity of the attack and related aspects, we can create a structured method of evaluating the performance of candidate architectures against each other to create a metric rating its resilience to these attack types/strategies. Through multiple simulation iterations, sufficient data will exist to compare this availability metric, and an architectural recommendation against the baseline requirements, in comparison to existing multi-factor computing architectural selection processes. It is intended that this additional data will create an improvement in the matching of resilient critical infrastructure system requirements to the correct architectures and implementations that will support improved operation during times of system degradation due to failures and infrastructure attacks.

Keywords: architecture, resiliency, availability, cyber-attack

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Authors: Rodrigo Zeidan

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The paper identifies failures of decision making and corporate governance that allow non-financial companies around the world to develop hedging strategies that lead to hefty losses in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The sample is comprised of 346 companies from 10 international markets, of which 49 companies (and a subsample of 13 distressed companies) lose a combined US$18.9 billion. An event study shows that most companies that present losses in derivatives experience negative abnormal returns, including a number of companies in which the effect is persistent after a year. The results of a probit model indicate that the lack of a formal hedging policy, no monitoring to the CFOs, and considerations of hubris and remuneration contribute to the mismanagement of hedging policies.

Keywords: risk management, hedging, derivatives, monitoring, corporate governance structure, event study, hubris

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Authors: Oluwafunmibi Omotayo Fasanya, Augustine Kena Adjei

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To develop a machine learning model to predict diabetes (DM) prevalence in the U.S. population using demographic characteristics, physical indicators, and lifestyle habits, and to analyze how these factors contribute to the likelihood of diabetes. We analyzed data from 23,546 participants aged 20 and older, who were non-pregnant, from the 2009-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The dataset included key demographic (age, sex, ethnicity), physical (BMI, leg length, total cholesterol [TCHOL], fasting plasma glucose), and lifestyle indicators (smoking habits). A weighted sample was used to account for NHANES survey design features such as stratification and clustering. A classification machine learning model was trained to predict diabetes status. The target variable was binary (diabetes or non-diabetes) based on fasting plasma glucose measurements. The following models were evaluated: Logistic Regression (baseline), Random Forest Classifier, Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Support Vector Machine (SVM). Model performance was assessed using accuracy, F1-score, AUC-ROC, and precision-recall metrics. Feature importance was analyzed using SHAP values to interpret the contributions of variables such as age, BMI, ethnicity, and smoking status. The Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) model outperformed other classifiers with an AUC-ROC score of 0.85. Feature importance analysis revealed the following key predictors: Age: The most significant predictor, with diabetes prevalence increasing with age, peaking around the 60s for males and 70s for females. BMI: Higher BMI was strongly associated with a higher risk of diabetes. Ethnicity: Black participants had the highest predicted prevalence of diabetes (14.6%), followed by Mexican-Americans (13.5%) and Whites (10.6%). TCHOL: Diabetics had lower total cholesterol levels, particularly among White participants (mean decline of 23.6 mg/dL). Smoking: Smoking showed a slight increase in diabetes risk among Whites (0.2%) but had a limited effect in other ethnic groups. Using machine learning models, we identified key demographic, physical, and lifestyle predictors of diabetes in the U.S. population. The results confirm that diabetes prevalence varies significantly across age, BMI, and ethnic groups, with lifestyle factors such as smoking contributing differently by ethnicity. These findings provide a basis for more targeted public health interventions and resource allocation for diabetes management.

Keywords: diabetes, NHANES, random forest, gradient boosting machine, support vector machine

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