Search results for: horizontal axis wind turbine blade
Commenced in January 2007
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Paper Count: 2735

Search results for: horizontal axis wind turbine blade

95 Development and Experimental Validation of Coupled Flow-Aerosol Microphysics Model for Hot Wire Generator

Authors: K. Ghosh, S. N. Tripathi, Manish Joshi, Y. S. Mayya, Arshad Khan, B. K. Sapra

Abstract:

We have developed a CFD coupled aerosol microphysics model in the context of aerosol generation from a glowing wire. The governing equations can be solved implicitly for mass, momentum, energy transfer along with aerosol dynamics. The computationally efficient framework can simulate temporal behavior of total number concentration and number size distribution. This formulation uniquely couples standard K-Epsilon scheme with boundary layer model with detailed aerosol dynamics through residence time. This model uses measured temperatures (wire surface and axial/radial surroundings) and wire compositional data apart from other usual inputs for simulations. The model predictions show that bulk fluid motion and local heat distribution can significantly affect the aerosol behavior when the buoyancy effect in momentum transfer is considered. Buoyancy generated turbulence was found to be affecting parameters related to aerosol dynamics and transport as well. The model was validated by comparing simulated predictions with results obtained from six controlled experiments performed with a laboratory-made hot wire nanoparticle generator. Condensation particle counter (CPC) and scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) were used for measurement of total number concentration and number size distribution at the outlet of reactor cell during these experiments. Our model-predicted results were found to be in reasonable agreement with observed values. The developed model is fast (fully implicit) and numerically stable. It can be used specifically for applications in the context of the behavior of aerosol particles generated from glowing wire technique and in general for other similar large scale domains. Incorporation of CFD in aerosol microphysics framework provides a realistic platform to study natural convection driven systems/ applications. Aerosol dynamics sub-modules (nucleation, coagulation, wall deposition) have been coupled with Navier Stokes equations modified to include buoyancy coupled K-Epsilon turbulence model. Coupled flow-aerosol dynamics equation was solved numerically and in the implicit scheme. Wire composition and temperature (wire surface and cell domain) were obtained/measured, to be used as input for the model simulations. Model simulations showed a significant effect of fluid properties on the dynamics of aerosol particles. The role of buoyancy was highlighted by observation and interpretation of nucleation zones in the planes above the wire axis. The model was validated against measured temporal evolution, total number concentration and size distribution at the outlet of hot wire generator cell. Experimentally averaged and simulated total number concentrations were found to match closely, barring values at initial times. Steady-state number size distribution matched very well for sub 10 nm particle diameters while reasonable differences were noticed for higher size ranges. Although tuned specifically for the present context (i.e., aerosol generation from hotwire generator), the model can also be used for diverse applications, e.g., emission of particles from hot zones (chimneys, exhaust), fires and atmospheric cloud dynamics.

Keywords: nanoparticles, k-epsilon model, buoyancy, CFD, hot wire generator, aerosol dynamics

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94 Buoyant Gas Dispersion in a Small Fuel Cell Enclosure: A Comparison Study Using Plain and Pressed Louvre Vent Passive Ventilation Schemes

Authors: T. Ghatauray, J. Ingram, P. Holborn

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The transition from a ‘carbon rich’ fossil fuel dependent to a ‘sustainable’ and ‘renewable’ hydrogen based society will see the deployment of hydrogen fuel cells (HFC) in transport applications and in the generation of heat and power for buildings, as part of a decentralised power network. Many deployments will be low power HFCs for domestic combined heat and power (CHP) and commercial ‘transportable’ HFCs for environmental situations, such as lighting and telephone towers. For broad commercialisation of small fuel cells to be achieved there needs to be significant confidence in their safety in both domestic and environmental applications. Low power HFCs are housed in protective steel enclosures. Standard enclosures have plain rectangular ventilation openings intended for thermal management of electronics and not the dispersion of a buoyant gas. Degradation of the HFC or supply pipework in use could lead to a low-level leak and a build-up of hydrogen gas in the enclosure. Hydrogen’s wide flammable range (4-75%) is a significant safety concern, with ineffective enclosure ventilation having the potential to cause flammable mixtures to develop with the risk of explosion. Mechanical ventilation is effective at managing enclosure hydrogen concentrations, but drains HFC power and is vulnerable to failure. This is undesirable in low power and remote installations and reliable passive ventilation systems are preferred. Passive ventilation depends upon buoyancy driven flow, with the size, shape and position of ventilation openings critical for producing predictable flows and maintaining low buoyant gas concentrations. With environmentally sited enclosures, ventilation openings with pressed horizontal and angled louvres are preferred to protect the HFC and electronics inside. There is an economic cost to adding louvres, but also a safety concern. A question arises over whether the use of pressed louvre vents impairs enclosure passive ventilation performance, when compared to same opening area plain vents. Comparison small enclosure (0.144m³) tests of same opening area pressed louvre and plain vents were undertaken. A displacement ventilation arrangement was incorporated into the enclosure with opposing upper and lower ventilation openings. A range of vent areas were tested. Helium (used as a safe analogue for hydrogen) was released from a 4mm nozzle at the base of the enclosure to simulate a hydrogen leak at leak rates from 1 to 10 lpm. Helium sensors were used to record concentrations at eight heights in the enclosure. The enclosure was otherwise empty. These tests determined that the use of pressed and angled louvre ventilation openings on the enclosure impaired the passive ventilation flow and increased helium concentrations in the enclosure. High-level stratified buoyant gas layers were also found to be deeper than with plain vent openings and were within the flammable range. The presence of gas within the flammable range is of concern, particularly as the addition of the fuel cell and electronics in the enclosure would further reduce the available volume and increase concentrations. The opening area of louvre vents would need to be greater than equivalent plain vents to achieve comparable ventilation flows or alternative schemes would need to be considered.

Keywords: enclosure, fuel cell, helium, hydrogen safety, louvre vent, passive ventilation

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93 Workflow Based Inspection of Geometrical Adaptability from 3D CAD Models Considering Production Requirements

Authors: Tobias Huwer, Thomas Bobek, Gunter Spöcker

Abstract:

Driving forces for enhancements in production are trends like digitalization and individualized production. Currently, such developments are restricted to assembly parts. Thus, complex freeform surfaces are not addressed in this context. The need for efficient use of resources and near-net-shape production will require individualized production of complex shaped workpieces. Due to variations between nominal model and actual geometry, this can lead to changes in operations in Computer-aided process planning (CAPP) to make CAPP manageable for an adaptive serial production. In this context, 3D CAD data can be a key to realizing that objective. Along with developments in the geometrical adaptation, a preceding inspection method based on CAD data is required to support the process planner by finding objective criteria to make decisions about the adaptive manufacturability of workpieces. Nowadays, this kind of decisions is depending on the experience-based knowledge of humans (e.g. process planners) and results in subjective decisions – leading to a variability of workpiece quality and potential failure in production. In this paper, we present an automatic part inspection method, based on design and measurement data, which evaluates actual geometries of single workpiece preforms. The aim is to automatically determine the suitability of the current shape for further machining, and to provide a basis for an objective decision about subsequent adaptive manufacturability. The proposed method is realized by a workflow-based approach, keeping in mind the requirements of industrial applications. Workflows are a well-known design method of standardized processes. Especially in applications like aerospace industry standardization and certification of processes are an important aspect. Function blocks, providing a standardized, event-driven abstraction to algorithms and data exchange, will be used for modeling and execution of inspection workflows. Each analysis step of the inspection, such as positioning of measurement data or checking of geometrical criteria, will be carried out by function blocks. One advantage of this approach is its flexibility to design workflows and to adapt algorithms specific to the application domain. In general, within the specified tolerance range it will be checked if a geometrical adaption is possible. The development of particular function blocks is predicated on workpiece specific information e.g. design data. Furthermore, for different product lifecycle phases, appropriate logics and decision criteria have to be considered. For example, tolerances for geometric deviations are different in type and size for new-part production compared to repair processes. In addition to function blocks, appropriate referencing systems are important. They need to support exact determination of position and orientation of the actual geometries to provide a basis for precise analysis. The presented approach provides an inspection methodology for adaptive and part-individual process chains. The analysis of each workpiece results in an inspection protocol and an objective decision about further manufacturability. A representative application domain is the product lifecycle of turbine blades containing a new-part production and a maintenance process. In both cases, a geometrical adaptation is required to calculate individual production data. In contrast to existing approaches, the proposed initial inspection method provides information to decide between different potential adaptive machining processes.

Keywords: adaptive, CAx, function blocks, turbomachinery

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92 Case Study of Human Factors and Ergonomics in the Design and Use of Harness-Embedded Costumes in the Entertainment Industry

Authors: Marielle Hanley, Brandon Takahashi, Gerry Hanley, Gabriella Hancock

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Safety harnesses and their protocols are very common within the construction industry, and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration has provided extensive guidelines with protocols being constantly updated to ensure the highest level of safety within construction sites. There is also extensive research on harnesses that are meant to keep people in place in moving vehicles, such as seatbelts. Though this research is comprehensive in these areas, the findings and recommendations are not generally applicable to other industry sectors where harnesses are used, such as the entertainment industry. The focus of this case study is on the design and use of harnesses used by theme park employees wearing elaborate costumes in parades and performances. The key factors of posture, kinesthetic factors, and harness engineering interact in significantly different ways when the user is performing repetitive choreography with 20 to 40 lbs. of apparatus connected to harnesses that need to be hidden from the audience’s view. Human factors and ergonomic analysis take into account the required performers’ behaviors, the physical and mental preparation and posture of the performer, the design of the harness-embedded costume, and the environmental conditions during the performance (e.g., wind) that can determine the physical stresses placed on the harness and performer. The uniqueness and expense of elaborate costumes frequently result in one or two costumes created for production, and a variety of different performers need to fit into the same costume. Consequently, the harnesses should be adjustable if they are to minimize the physical and cognitive loads on the performer, but they are frequently more a “one-size fits all”. The complexity of human and technology interactions produces a range of detrimental outcomes, from muscle strains to nerve damage, mental and physical fatigue, and reduced motivation to perform at peak levels. Based on observations conducted over four years for this case study, a number of recommendations to institutionalize the human factors and ergonomic analyses can significantly improve the safety, reliability, and quality of performances with harness-embedded costumes in the entertainment industry. Human factors and ergonomic analyses can be integrated into the engineering design of the performance costumes with embedded harnesses, the conditioning and training of the performers using the costumes, the choreography of the performances within the staged setting and the maintenance of the harness-embedded costumes. By applying human factors and ergonomic methodologies in the entertainment industry, the industry management and support staff can significantly reduce the risks of injury, improve the longevity of unique performers, increase the longevity of the harness-embedded costumes, and produce the desired entertainment value for audiences.

Keywords: ergonomics in entertainment industry, harness-embedded costumes, performer safety, injury prevention

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91 Factors Affecting Air Surface Temperature Variations in the Philippines

Authors: John Christian Lequiron, Gerry Bagtasa, Olivia Cabrera, Leoncio Amadore, Tolentino Moya

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Changes in air surface temperature play an important role in the Philippine’s economy, industry, health, and food production. While increasing global mean temperature in the recent several decades has prompted a number of climate change and variability studies in the Philippines, most studies still focus on rainfall and tropical cyclones. This study aims to investigate the trend and variability of observed air surface temperature and determine its major influencing factor/s in the Philippines. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to monthly mean temperature of 17 synoptic stations covering 56 years from 1960 to 2015 and a mean change of 0.58 °C or a positive trend of 0.0105 °C/year (p < 0.05) was found. In addition, wavelet decomposition was used to determine the frequency of temperature variability show a 12-month, 30-80-month and more than 120-month cycles. This indicates strong annual variations, interannual variations that coincide with ENSO events, and interdecadal variations that are attributed to PDO and CO2 concentrations. Air surface temperature was also correlated with smoothed sunspot number and galactic cosmic rays, the results show a low to no effect. The influence of ENSO teleconnection on temperature, wind pattern, cloud cover, and outgoing longwave radiation on different ENSO phases had significant effects on regional temperature variability. Particularly, an anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow east of the Philippines during the peak and decay phase of El Niño (La Niña) events leads to the advection of warm southeasterly (cold northeasterly) air mass over the country. Furthermore, an apparent increasing cloud cover trend is observed over the West Philippine Sea including portions of the Philippines, and this is believed to lessen the effect of the increasing air surface temperature. However, relative humidity was also found to be increasing especially on the central part of the country, which results in a high positive trend of heat index, exacerbating the effects on human discomfort. Finally, an assessment of gridded temperature datasets was done to look at the viability of using three high-resolution datasets in future climate analysis and model calibration and verification. Several error statistics (i.e. Pearson correlation, Bias, MAE, and RMSE) were used for this validation. Results show that gridded temperature datasets generally follows the observed surface temperature change and anomalies. In addition, it is more representative of regional temperature rather than a substitute to station-observed air temperature.

Keywords: air surface temperature, carbon dioxide, ENSO, galactic cosmic rays, smoothed sunspot number

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90 Community Perception towards the Major Drivers for Deforestation and Land Degradation of Choke Afro-alpine and Sub-afro alpine Ecosystem, Northwest Ethiopia

Authors: Zelalem Teshager

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The Choke Mountains have several endangered and endemic wildlife species and provide important ecosystem services. Despite their environmental importance, the Choke Mountains are found in dangerous conditions. This raised the need for an evaluation of the community's perception of deforestation and its major drivers and suggested possible solutions in the Choke Mountains of northwestern Ethiopia. For this purpose, household surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions were used. A total sample of 102 informants was used for this survey. A purposive sampling technique was applied to select the participants for in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. Both qualitative and quantitative data analyses were used. Computation of descriptive statistics such as mean, percentages, frequency, tables, figures, and graphs was applied to organize, analyze, and interpret the study. This study assessed smallholder agricultural land expansion, Fuel wood collection, population growth; encroachment, free grazing, high demand of construction wood, unplanned resettlement, unemployment, border conflict, lack of a strong forest protecting system, and drought were the serious causes of forest depletion reported by local communities. Loss of land productivity, Soil erosion, soil fertility decline, increasing wind velocity, rising temperature, and frequency of drought were the most perceived impacts of deforestation. Most of the farmers have a holistic understanding of forest cover change. Strengthening forest protection, improving soil and water conservation, enrichment planting, awareness creation, payment for ecosystem services, and zero grazing campaigns were mentioned as possible solutions to the current state of deforestation. Applications of Intervention measures, such as animal fattening, beekeeping, and fruit production can contribute to decreasing the deforestation causes and improve communities’ livelihood. In addition, concerted efforts of conservation will ensure that the forests’ ecosystems contribute to increased ecosystem services. The major drivers of deforestation should be addressed with government intervention to change dependency on forest resources, income sources of the people, and institutional set-up of the forestry sector. Overall, further reduction in anthropogenic pressure is urgent and crucial for the recovery of the afro-alpine vegetation and the interrelated endangered wildlife in the Choke Mountains.

Keywords: choke afro-alpine, deforestation, drivers, intervention measures, perceptions

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89 Life Cycle Assessment of Todays and Future Electricity Grid Mixes of EU27

Authors: Johannes Gantner, Michael Held, Rafael Horn, Matthias Fischer

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At the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2015 a global agreement on the reduction of climate change was achieved stating CO₂ reduction targets for all countries. For instance, the EU targets a reduction of 40 percent in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. In order to achieve this ambitious goal, the environmental performance of the different European electricity grid mixes is crucial. First, the electricity directly needed for everyone’s daily life (e.g. heating, plug load, mobility) and therefore a reduction of the environmental impacts of the electricity grid mix reduces the overall environmental impacts of a country. Secondly, the manufacturing of every product depends on electricity. Thereby a reduction of the environmental impacts of the electricity mix results in a further decrease of environmental impacts of every product. As a result, the implementation of the two-degree goal highly depends on the decarbonization of the European electricity mixes. Currently the production of electricity in the EU27 is based on fossil fuels and therefore bears a high GWP impact per kWh. Due to the importance of the environmental impacts of the electricity mix, not only today but also in future, within the European research projects, CommONEnergy and Senskin, time-dynamic Life Cycle Assessment models for all EU27 countries were set up. As a methodology, a combination of scenario modeling and life cycle assessment according to ISO14040 and ISO14044 was conducted. Based on EU27 trends regarding energy, transport, and buildings, the different national electricity mixes were investigated taking into account future changes such as amount of electricity generated in the country, change in electricity carriers, COP of the power plants and distribution losses, imports and exports. As results, time-dynamic environmental profiles for the electricity mixes of each country and for Europe overall were set up. Thereby for each European country, the decarbonization strategies of the electricity mix are critically investigated in order to identify decisions, that can lead to negative environmental effects, for instance on the reduction of the global warming of the electricity mix. For example, the withdrawal of the nuclear energy program in Germany and at the same time compensation of the missing energy by non-renewable energy carriers like lignite and natural gas is resulting in an increase in global warming potential of electricity grid mix. Just after two years this increase countervailed by the higher share of renewable energy carriers such as wind power and photovoltaic. Finally, as an outlook a first qualitative picture is provided, illustrating from environmental perspective, which country has the highest potential for low-carbon electricity production and therefore how investments in a connected European electricity grid could decrease the environmental impacts of the electricity mix in Europe.

Keywords: electricity grid mixes, EU27 countries, environmental impacts, future trends, life cycle assessment, scenario analysis

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88 Explosive Clad Metals for Geothermal Energy Recovery

Authors: Heather Mroz

Abstract:

Geothermal fluids can provide a nearly unlimited source of renewable energy but are often highly corrosive due to dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2), hydrogen sulphide (H2S), Ammonia (NH3) and chloride ions. The corrosive environment drives material selection for many components, including piping, heat exchangers and pressure vessels, to higher alloys of stainless steel, nickel-based alloys and titanium. The use of these alloys is cost-prohibitive and does not offer the pressure rating of carbon steel. One solution, explosion cladding, has been proven to reduce the capital cost of the geothermal equipment while retaining the mechanical and corrosion properties of both the base metal and the cladded surface metal. Explosion cladding is a solid-state welding process that uses precision explosions to bond two dissimilar metals while retaining the mechanical, electrical and corrosion properties. The process is commonly used to clad steel with a thin layer of corrosion-resistant alloy metal, such as stainless steel, brass, nickel, silver, titanium, or zirconium. Additionally, explosion welding can join a wider array of compatible and non-compatible metals with more than 260 metal combinations possible. The explosion weld is achieved in milliseconds; therefore, no bulk heating occurs, and the metals experience no dilution. By adhering to a strict set of manufacturing requirements, both the shear strength and tensile strength of the bond will exceed the strength of the weaker metal, ensuring the reliability of the bond. For over 50 years, explosion cladding has been used in the oil and gas and chemical processing industries and has provided significant economic benefit in reduced maintenance and lower capital costs over solid construction. The focus of this paper will be on the many benefits of the use of explosion clad in process equipment instead of more expensive solid alloy construction. The method of clad-plate production with explosion welding as well as the methods employed to ensure sound bonding of the metals. It will also include the origins of explosion cladding as well as recent technological developments. Traditionally explosion clad plate was formed into vessels, tube sheets and heads but recent advances include explosion welded piping. The final portion of the paper will give examples of the use of explosion-clad metals in geothermal energy recovery. The classes of materials used for geothermal brine will be discussed, including stainless steels, nickel alloys and titanium. These examples will include heat exchangers (tube sheets), high pressure and horizontal separators, standard pressure crystallizers, piping and well casings. It is important to educate engineers and designers on material options as they develop equipment for geothermal resources. Explosion cladding is a niche technology that can be successful in many situations, like geothermal energy recovery, where high temperature, high pressure and corrosive environments are typical. Applications for explosion clad metals include vessel and heat exchanger components as well as piping.

Keywords: clad metal, explosion welding, separator material, well casing material, piping material

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87 Sea Surface Trend over the Arabian Sea and Its Influence on the South West Monsoon Rainfall Variability over Sri Lanka

Authors: Sherly Shelton, Zhaohui Lin

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In recent decades, the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation over the India and Sri Lanka has intensified significantly with an increased frequency of both abnormally dry and wet summers. Therefore prediction of the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation is crucial and urgent for water management and local agriculture scheduling. However, none of the hypotheses put forward so far could understand the relationship to monsoon variability and related factors that affect to the South West Monsoon (SWM) variability in Sri Lanka. This study focused to identify the spatial and temporal variability of SWM rainfall events from June to September (JJAS) over Sri Lanka and associated trend. The monthly rainfall records covering 1980-2013 over the Sri Lanka are used for 19 stations to investigate long-term trends in SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. The linear trends of atmospheric variables are calculated to understand the drivers behind the changers described based on the observed precipitation, sea surface temperature and atmospheric reanalysis products data for 34 years (1980–2013). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to understand the spatial and temporal behaviour of seasonal SWM rainfall variability and also investigate whether the trend pattern is the dominant mode that explains SWM rainfall variability. The spatial and stations based precipitation over the country showed statistically insignificant decreasing trends except few stations. The first two EOFs of seasonal (JJAS) mean of rainfall explained 52% and 23 % of the total variance and first PC showed positive loadings of the SWM rainfall for the whole landmass while strongest positive lording can be seen in western/ southwestern part of the Sri Lanka. There is a negative correlation (r ≤ -0.3) between SMRI and SST in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean which indicate that lower temperature in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean are associated with greater rainfall over the country. This study also shows that consistently warming throughout the Indian Ocean. The result shows that the perceptible water over the county is decreasing with the time which the influence to the reduction of precipitation over the area by weakening drawn draft. In addition, evaporation is getting weaker over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Sri Lankan landmass which leads to reduction of moisture availability required for the SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. At the same time, weakening of the SST gradients between Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal can deteriorate the monsoon circulation, untimely which diminish SWM over Sri Lanka. The decreasing trends of moisture, moisture transport, zonal wind, moisture divergence with weakening evaporation over Arabian Sea, during the past decade having an aggravating influence on decreasing trends of monsoon rainfall over the Sri Lanka.

Keywords: Arabian Sea, moisture flux convergence, South West Monsoon, Sri Lanka, sea surface temperature

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86 Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Inducing Coastal Upwelling in the Baltic Sea

Authors: Ewa Bednorz, Marek Polrolniczak, Bartosz Czernecki, Arkadiusz Marek Tomczyk

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This study is meant as a contribution to the research of the upwelling phenomenon, which is one of the most pronounced examples of the sea-atmosphere coupling. The aim is to confirm the atmospheric forcing of the sea waters circulation and sea surface temperature along the variously oriented Baltic Sea coasts and to find out macroscale and regional circulation patterns triggering upwelling along different sections of this relatively small and semi-closed sea basin. The mean daily sea surface temperature data from the summer seasons (June–August) of the years 1982–2017 made the basis for the detection of upwelling cases. For the atmospheric part of the analysis, monthly indices of the Northern Hemisphere macroscale circulation patterns were used. Besides, in order to identify the local direction of airflow, the daily zonal and meridional regional circulation indices were constructed and introduced to the analysis. Finally, daily regional circulation patterns over the Baltic Sea region were distinguished by applying the principal component analysis to the gridded mean daily sea level pressure data. Within the Baltic Sea, upwelling is the most frequent along the zonally oriented northern coast of the Gulf of Finland, southern coasts of Sweden, and along the middle part of the western Gulf of Bothnia coast. Among the macroscale circulation patterns, the Scandinavian type (SCAND), with a primary circulation center located over Scandinavia, has the strongest impact on the horizontal flow of surface sea waters in the Baltic Sea, which triggers upwelling. An anticyclone center over Scandinavia in the positive phase of SCAND enhances the eastern airflow, which increases upwelling frequency along southeastern Baltic coasts. It was proved in the study that the zonal circulation has a stronger impact on upwelling occurrence than the meridional one, and it could increase/decrease a chance of upwelling formation by more than 70% in some coastal sections. Positive and negative phases of six distinguished regional daily circulation patterns made 12 different synoptic situations which were analyzed in the terms of their influence on the upwelling formation. Each of them revealed some impact on the frequency of upwelling in some coastal section of the Baltic Sea; however, two kinds of synoptic situations seemed to have the strongest influence, namely, the first kind representing pressure patterns enhancing the zonal flow and the second kind representing synoptic patterns with a cyclone/anticyclone centers over southern Scandinavia. Upwelling occurrence appeared to be particularly strongly reliant on the atmospheric conditions in some specific coastal sections, namely: the Gulf of Finland, the south eastern Baltic coasts (Polish and Latvian-Lithuanian section), and the western part of the Gulf of Bothnia. Concluding, it can be stated that atmospheric conditions strongly control the occurrence of upwelling within the Baltic Sea basin. Both local and macroscale circulation patterns expressed by the location of the pressure centers influence the frequency of this phenomenon; however, the impact strength varies, depending on the coastal region. Acknowledgment: This research was funded by the National Science Centre, Poland, grant number 2016/21/B/ST10/01440.

Keywords: Baltic Sea, circulation patterns, coastal upwelling, synoptic conditions

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85 Black-Box-Optimization Approach for High Precision Multi-Axes Forward-Feed Design

Authors: Sebastian Kehne, Alexander Epple, Werner Herfs

Abstract:

A new method for optimal selection of components for multi-axes forward-feed drive systems is proposed in which the choice of motors, gear boxes and ball screw drives is optimized. Essential is here the synchronization of electrical and mechanical frequency behavior of all axes because even advanced controls (like H∞-controls) can only control a small part of the mechanical modes – namely only those of observable and controllable states whose value can be derived from the positions of extern linear length measurement systems and/or rotary encoders on the motor or gear box shafts. Further problems are the unknown processing forces like cutting forces in machine tools during normal operation which make the estimation and control via an observer even more difficult. To start with, the open source Modelica Feed Drive Library which was developed at the Laboratory for Machine Tools, and Production Engineering (WZL) is extended from one axis design to the multi axes design. It is capable to simulate the mechanical, electrical and thermal behavior of permanent magnet synchronous machines with inverters, different gear boxes and ball screw drives in a mechanical system. To keep the calculation time down analytical equations are used for field and torque producing equivalent circuit, heat dissipation and mechanical torque at the shaft. As a first step, a small machine tool with a working area of 635 x 315 x 420 mm is taken apart, and the mechanical transfer behavior is measured with an impulse hammer and acceleration sensors. With the frequency transfer functions, a mechanical finite element model is built up which is reduced with substructure coupling to a mass-damper system which models the most important modes of the axes. The model is modelled with Modelica Feed Drive Library and validated by further relative measurements between machine table and spindle holder with a piezo actor and acceleration sensors. In a next step, the choice of possible components in motor catalogues is limited by derived analytical formulas which are based on well-known metrics to gain effective power and torque of the components. The simulation in Modelica is run with different permanent magnet synchronous motors, gear boxes and ball screw drives from different suppliers. To speed up the optimization different black-box optimization methods (Surrogate-based, gradient-based and evolutionary) are tested on the case. The objective that was chosen is to minimize the integral of the deviations if a step is given on the position controls of the different axes. Small values are good measures for a high dynamic axes. In each iteration (evaluation of one set of components) the control variables are adjusted automatically to have an overshoot less than 1%. It is obtained that the order of the components in optimization problem has a deep impact on the speed of the black-box optimization. An approach to do efficient black-box optimization for multi-axes design is presented in the last part. The authors would like to thank the German Research Foundation DFG for financial support of the project “Optimierung des mechatronischen Entwurfs von mehrachsigen Antriebssystemen (HE 5386/14-1 | 6954/4-1)” (English: Optimization of the Mechatronic Design of Multi-Axes Drive Systems).

Keywords: ball screw drive design, discrete optimization, forward feed drives, gear box design, linear drives, machine tools, motor design, multi-axes design

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84 Hydraulic Headloss in Plastic Drainage Pipes at Full and Partially Full Flow

Authors: Velitchko G. Tzatchkov, Petronilo E. Cortes-Mejia, J. Manuel Rodriguez-Varela, Jesus Figueroa-Vazquez

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Hydraulic headloss, expressed by the values of friction factor f and Manning’s coefficient n, is an important parameter in designing drainage pipes. Their values normally are taken from manufacturer recommendations, many times without sufficient experimental support. To our knowledge, currently there is no standard procedure for hydraulically testing such pipes. As a result of research carried out at the Mexican Institute of Water Technology, a laboratory testing procedure was proposed and applied on 6 and 12 inches diameter polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and high-density dual wall polyethylene pipe (HDPE) drainage pipes. While the PVC pipe is characterized by naturally smooth interior and exterior walls, the dual wall HDPE pipe has corrugated exterior wall and, although considered smooth, a slightly wavy interior wall. The pipes were tested at full and partially full pipe flow conditions. The tests for full pipe flow were carried out on a 31.47 m long pipe at flow velocities between 0.11 and 4.61 m/s. Water was supplied by gravity from a 10 m-high tank in some of the tests, and from a 3.20 m-high tank in the rest of the tests. Pressure was measured independently with piezometer readings and pressure transducers. The flow rate was measured by an ultrasonic meter. For the partially full pipe flow the pipe was placed inside an existing 49.63 m long zero slope (horizontal) channel. The flow depth was measured by piezometers located along the pipe, for flow rates between 2.84 and 35.65 L/s, measured by a rectangular weir. The observed flow profiles were then compared to computer generated theoretical gradually varied flow profiles for different Manning’s n values. It was found that Manning’s n, that normally is assumed constant for a given pipe material, is in fact dependent on flow velocity and pipe diameter for full pipe flow, and on flow depth for partially full pipe flow. Contrary to the expected higher values of n and f for the HDPE pipe, virtually the same values were obtained for the smooth interior wall PVC pipe and the slightly wavy interior wall HDPE pipe. The explanation of this fact was found in Henry Morris’ theory for smooth turbulent conduit flow over isolated roughness elements. Following Morris, three categories of the flow regimes are possible in a rough conduit: isolated roughness (or semi smooth turbulent) flow, wake interference (or hyper turbulent) flow, and skimming (or quasi-smooth) flow. Isolated roughness flow is characterized by friction drag turbulence over the wall between the roughness elements, independent vortex generation, and dissipation around each roughness element. In this regime, the wake and vortex generation zones at each element develop and dissipate before attaining the next element. The longitudinal spacing of the roughness elements and their height are important influencing agents. Given the slightly wavy form of the HDPE pipe interior wall, the flow for this type of pipe belongs to this category. Based on that theory, an equation for the hydraulic friction factor was obtained. The obtained coefficient values are going to be used in the Mexican design standards.

Keywords: drainage plastic pipes, hydraulic headloss, hydraulic friction factor, Manning’s n

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83 Relevance of Dosing Time for Everolimus Toxicity on Thyroid Gland and Hormones in Mice

Authors: Dilek Ozturk, Narin Ozturk, Zeliha Pala Kara, Engin Kaptan, Serap Sancar Bas, Nurten Ozsoy, Alper Okyar

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Most physiological processes oscillate in a rhythmic manner in mammals including metabolism and energy homeostasis, locomotor activity, hormone secretion, immune and endocrine system functions. Endocrine body rhythms are tightly regulated by the circadian timing system. The hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) axis is under circadian control at multiple levels from hypothalamus to thyroid gland. Since circadian timing system controls a variety of biological functions in mammals, circadian rhythms of biological functions may modify the drug tolerability/toxicity depending on the dosing time. Selective mTOR (mammalian target of rapamycin) inhibitor everolimus is an immunosuppressant and anticancer agent that is active against many cancers. It was also found to be active in medullary thyroid cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate the dosing time-dependent toxicity of everolimus on the thyroid gland and hormones in mice. Healthy C57BL/6J mice were synchronized with 12h:12h Light-Dark cycle (LD12:12, with Zeitgeber Time 0 – ZT0 – corresponding to Light onset). Everolimus was administered to male (5 mg/kg/day) and female mice (15 mg/kg/day) orally at ZT1-rest period- and ZT13-activity period- for 4 weeks; body weight loss, clinical signs and possible changes in serum thyroid hormone levels (TSH and free T4) were examined. Histological alterations in the thyroid gland were evaluated according to the following criteria: follicular size, colloid density and viscidity, height of the follicular epithelium and the presence of necrotic cells. The statistical significance between differences was analyzed with ANOVA. Study findings included everolimus-related diarrhea, decreased activity, decreased body weight gains, alterations in serum TSH levels, and histopathological changes in thyroid gland. Decreases in mean body weight gains were more evident in mice treated at ZT1 as compared to ZT13 (p < 0.001, for both sexes). Control tissue sections of thyroid glands exhibited well-organized histoarchitecture when compared to everolimus-treated groups. Everolimus caused histopathological alterations in thyroid glands in male (5 mg/kg, slightly) and female mice (15 mg/kg; p < 0.01 for both ZT as compared to their controls) irrespective of dosing-time. TSH levels were slightly decreased upon everolimus treatment at ZT13 in both males and females. Conversely, increases in TSH levels were observed when everolimus treated at ZT1 in both males (5 mg/kg; p < 0.05) and females (15 mg/kg; slightly). No statistically significant alterations in serum free T4 levels were observed. TSH and free T4 is clinically important thyroid hormones since a number of disease states have been linked to alterations in these hormones. Serum free T4 levels within the normal ranges in the presence of abnormal serum TSH levels in everolimus treated mice may suggest subclinical thyroid disease which may have repercussions on the cardiovascular system, as well as on other organs and systems. Our study has revealed the histological damage on thyroid gland induced by subacute everolimus administration, this effect was irrespective of dosing time. However, based on the body weight changes and clinical signs upon everolimus treatment, tolerability for the drug was best following dosing at ZT13 in both male and females. Yet, effects of everolimus on thyroid functions may deserve further studies regarding their clinical importance and chronotoxicity.

Keywords: circadian rhythm, chronotoxicity, everolimus, thyroid gland, thyroid hormones

Procedia PDF Downloads 333
82 Political Communication in Twitter Interactions between Government, News Media and Citizens in Mexico

Authors: Jorge Cortés, Alejandra Martínez, Carlos Pérez, Anaid Simón

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The presence of government, news media, and general citizenry in social media allows considering interactions between them as a form of political communication (i.e. the public exchange of contradictory discourses about politics). Twitter’s asymmetrical following model (users can follow, mention or reply to other users that do not follow them) could foster alternative democratic practices and have an impact on Mexican political culture, which has been marked by a lack of direct communication channels between these actors. The research aim is to assess Twitter’s role in political communication practices through the analysis of interaction dynamics between government, news media, and citizens by extracting and visualizing data from Twitter’s API to observe general behavior patterns. The hypothesis is that regardless the fact that Twitter’s features enable direct and horizontal interactions between actors, users repeat traditional dynamics of interaction, without taking full advantage of the possibilities of this medium. Through an interdisciplinary team including Communication Strategies, Information Design, and Interaction Systems, the activity on Twitter generated by the controversy over the presence of Uber in Mexico City was analysed; an issue of public interest, involving aspects such as public opinion, economic interests and a legal dimension. This research includes techniques from social network analysis (SNA), a methodological approach focused on the comprehension of the relationships between actors through the visual representation and measurement of network characteristics. The analysis of the Uber event comprised data extraction, data categorization, corpus construction, corpus visualization and analysis. On the recovery stage TAGS, a Google Sheet template, was used to extract tweets that included the hashtags #UberSeQueda and #UberSeVa, posts containing the string Uber and tweets directed to @uber_mx. Using scripts written in Python, the data was filtered, discarding tweets with no interaction (replies, retweets or mentions) and locations outside of México. Considerations regarding bots and the omission of anecdotal posts were also taken into account. The utility of graphs to observe interactions of political communication in general was confirmed by the analysis of visualizations generated with programs such as Gephi and NodeXL. However, some aspects require improvements to obtain more useful visual representations for this type of research. For example, link¬crossings complicates following the direction of an interaction forcing users to manipulate the graph to see it clearly. It was concluded that some practices prevalent in political communication in Mexico are replicated in Twitter. Media actors tend to group together instead of interact with others. The political system tends to tweet as an advertising strategy rather than to generate dialogue. However, some actors were identified as bridges establishing communication between the three spheres, generating a more democratic exercise and taking advantage of Twitter’s possibilities. Although interactions in Twitter could become an alternative to political communication, this potential depends on the intentions of the participants and to what extent they are aiming for collaborative and direct communications. Further research is needed to get a deeper understanding on the political behavior of Twitter users and the possibilities of SNA for its analysis.

Keywords: interaction, political communication, social network analysis, Twitter

Procedia PDF Downloads 201
81 Modeling and Analysis Of Occupant Behavior On Heating And Air Conditioning Systems In A Higher Education And Vocational Training Building In A Mediterranean Climate

Authors: Abderrahmane Soufi

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The building sector is the largest consumer of energy in France, accounting for 44% of French consumption. To reduce energy consumption and improve energy efficiency, France implemented an energy transition law targeting 40% energy savings by 2030 in the tertiary building sector. Building simulation tools are used to predict the energy performance of buildings but the reliability of these tools is hampered by discrepancies between the real and simulated energy performance of a building. This performance gap lies in the simplified assumptions of certain factors, such as the behavior of occupants on air conditioning and heating, which is considered deterministic when setting a fixed operating schedule and a fixed interior comfort temperature. However, the behavior of occupants on air conditioning and heating is stochastic, diverse, and complex because it can be affected by many factors. Probabilistic models are an alternative to deterministic models. These models are usually derived from statistical data and express occupant behavior by assuming a probabilistic relationship to one or more variables. In the literature, logistic regression has been used to model the behavior of occupants with regard to heating and air conditioning systems by considering univariate logistic models in residential buildings; however, few studies have developed multivariate models for higher education and vocational training buildings in a Mediterranean climate. Therefore, in this study, occupant behavior on heating and air conditioning systems was modeled using logistic regression. Occupant behavior related to the turn-on heating and air conditioning systems was studied through experimental measurements collected over a period of one year (June 2023–June 2024) in three classrooms occupied by several groups of students in engineering schools and professional training. Instrumentation was provided to collect indoor temperature and indoor relative humidity in 10-min intervals. Furthermore, the state of the heating/air conditioning system (off or on) and the set point were determined. The outdoor air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were collected as weather data. The number of occupants, age, and sex were also considered. Logistic regression was used for modeling an occupant turning on the heating and air conditioning systems. The results yielded a proposed model that can be used in building simulation tools to predict the energy performance of teaching buildings. Based on the first months (summer and early autumn) of the investigations, the results illustrate that the occupant behavior of the air conditioning systems is affected by the indoor relative humidity and temperature in June, July, and August and by the indoor relative humidity, temperature, and number of occupants in September and October. Occupant behavior was analyzed monthly, and univariate and multivariate models were developed.

Keywords: occupant behavior, logistic regression, behavior model, mediterranean climate, air conditioning, heating

Procedia PDF Downloads 44
80 The Elimination of Fossil Fuel Subsidies from the Road Transportation Sector and the Promotion of Electro Mobility: The Ecuadorian Case

Authors: Henry Acurio, Alvaro Corral, Juan Fonseca

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In Ecuador, subventions on fossil fuels for the road transportation sector have always been part of its economy throughout time, mainly because of demagogy and populism from political leaders. It is clearly seen that the government cannot maintain the subsidies anymore due to its commercial balance and its general state budget; subsidies are a key barrier to implementing the use of cleaner technologies. However, during the last few months, the elimination of subsidies has been done gradually with the purpose of reaching international prices. It is expected that with this measure, the population will opt for other means of transportation, and in a certain way, it will promote the use of private electric vehicles and public, e.g., taxis and buses (urban transport). Considering the three main elements of sustainable development, an analysis of the social, economic, and environmental impacts of eliminating subsidies will be generated at the country level. To achieve this, four scenarios will be developed in order to determine how the subsidies will contribute to the promotion of electro-mobility: 1) A Business as Usual (BAU) scenario; 2) the introduction of 10 000 electric vehicles by 2025; 3) the introduction of 100 000 electric vehicles by 2030; 4) the introduction of 750 000 electric vehicles by 2040 (for all the scenarios, buses, taxis, lightweight duty vehicles, and private vehicles will be introduced, as it is established in the National Electro Mobility Strategy for Ecuador). The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) will be used, and it will be suitable to determine the cost for the government in terms of importing derivatives for fossil fuels and the cost of electricity to power the electric fleet that can be changed. The elimination of subventions generates fiscal resources for the state that can be used to develop other kinds of projects that will benefit Ecuadorian society. It will definitely change the energy matrix, and it will provide energy security for the country; it will be an opportunity for the government to incentivize a greater introduction of renewable energies, e.g., solar, wind, and geothermal. At the same time, it will also reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from the transportation sector, considering its mitigation potential, which as a result, will ameliorate the inhabitant quality of life by improving the quality of air, therefore reducing respiratory diseases associated with exhaust emissions, consequently, achieving sustainability, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and complying with the agreements established in the Paris Agreement COP 21 in 2015. Electro-mobility in Latin America and the Caribbean can only be achieved by the implementation of the right policies by the central government, which need to be accompanied by a National Urban Mobility Policy (NUMP), and can encompass a greater vision to develop holistic, sustainable transport systems at local governments.

Keywords: electro mobility, energy, policy, sustainable transportation

Procedia PDF Downloads 57
79 Active Filtration of Phosphorus in Ca-Rich Hydrated Oil Shale Ash Filters: The Effect of Organic Loading and Form of Precipitated Phosphatic Material

Authors: Päärn Paiste, Margit Kõiv, Riho Mõtlep, Kalle Kirsimäe

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For small-scale wastewater management, the treatment wetlands (TWs) as a low cost alternative to conventional treatment facilities, can be used. However, P removal capacity of TW systems is usually problematic. P removal in TWs is mainly dependent on the physico–chemical and hydrological properties of the filter material. Highest P removal efficiency has been shown trough Ca-phosphate precipitation (i.e. active filtration) in Ca-rich alkaline filter materials, e.g. industrial by-products like hydrated oil shale ash (HOSA), metallurgical slags. In this contribution we report preliminary results of a full-scale TW system using HOSA material for P removal for a municipal wastewater at Nõo site, Estonia. The main goals of this ongoing project are to evaluate: a) the long-term P removal efficiency of HOSA using real waste water; b) the effect of high organic loading rate; c) variable P-loading effects on the P removal mechanism (adsorption/direct precipitation); and d) the form and composition of phosphate precipitates. Onsite full-scale experiment with two concurrent filter systems for treatment of municipal wastewater was established in September 2013. System’s pretreatment steps include septic tank (2 m2) and vertical down-flow LECA filters (3 m2 each), followed by horizontal subsurface HOSA filters (effective volume 8 m3 each). Overall organic and hydraulic loading rates of both systems are the same. However, the first system is operated in a stable hydraulic loading regime and the second in variable loading regime that imitates the wastewater production in an average household. Piezometers for water and perforated sample containers for filter material sampling were incorporated inside the filter beds to allow for continuous in-situ monitoring. During the 18 months of operation the median removal efficiency (inflow to outflow) of both systems were over 99% for TP, 93% for COD and 57% for TN. However, we observed significant differences in the samples collected in different points inside the filter systems. In both systems, we observed development of preferred flow paths and zones with high and low loadings. The filters show formation and a gradual advance of a “dead” zone along the flow path (zone with saturated filter material characterized by ineffective removal rates), which develops more rapidly in the system working under variable loading regime. The formation of the “dead” zone is accompanied by the growth of organic substances on the filter material particles that evidently inhibit the P removal. Phase analysis of used filter materials using X-ray diffraction method reveals formation of minor amounts of amorphous Ca-phosphate precipitates. This finding is supported by ATR-FTIR and SEM-EDS measurements, which also reveal Ca-phosphate and authigenic carbonate precipitation. Our first experimental results demonstrate that organic pollution and loading regime significantly affect the performance of hydrated ash filters. The material analyses also show that P is incorporated into a carbonate substituted hydroxyapatite phase.

Keywords: active filtration, apatite, hydrated oil shale ash, organic pollution, phosphorus

Procedia PDF Downloads 258
78 Nano-MFC (Nano Microbial Fuel Cell): Utilization of Carbon Nano Tube to Increase Efficiency of Microbial Fuel Cell Power as an Effective, Efficient and Environmentally Friendly Alternative Energy Sources

Authors: Annisa Ulfah Pristya, Andi Setiawan

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Electricity is the primary requirement today's world, including Indonesia. This is because electricity is a source of electrical energy that is flexible to use. Fossil energy sources are the major energy source that is used as a source of energy power plants. Unfortunately, this conversion process impacts on the depletion of fossil fuel reserves and causes an increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, disrupting health, ozone depletion, and the greenhouse effect. Solutions have been applied are solar cells, ocean wave power, the wind, water, and so forth. However, low efficiency and complicated treatment led to most people and industry in Indonesia still using fossil fuels. Referring to this Fuel Cell was developed. Fuel Cells are electrochemical technology that continuously converts chemical energy into electrical energy for the fuel and oxidizer are the efficiency is considerably higher than the previous natural source of electrical energy, which is 40-60%. However, Fuel Cells still have some weaknesses in terms of the use of an expensive platinum catalyst which is limited and not environmentally friendly. Because of it, required the simultaneous source of electrical energy and environmentally friendly. On the other hand, Indonesia is a rich country in marine sediments and organic content that is never exhausted. Stacking the organic component can be an alternative energy source continued development of fuel cell is A Microbial Fuel Cell. Microbial Fuel Cells (MFC) is a tool that uses bacteria to generate electricity from organic and non-organic compounds. MFC same tools as usual fuel cell composed of an anode, cathode and electrolyte. Its main advantage is the catalyst in the microbial fuel cell is a microorganism and working conditions carried out in neutral solution, low temperatures, and environmentally friendly than previous fuel cells (Chemistry Fuel Cell). However, when compared to Chemistry Fuel Cell, MFC only have an efficiency of 40%. Therefore, the authors provide a solution in the form of Nano-MFC (Nano Microbial Fuel Cell): Utilization of Carbon Nano Tube to Increase Efficiency of Microbial Fuel Cell Power as an Effective, Efficient and Environmentally Friendly Alternative Energy Source. Nano-MFC has the advantage of an effective, high efficiency, cheap and environmental friendly. Related stakeholders that helped are government ministers, especially Energy Minister, the Institute for Research, as well as the industry as a production executive facilitator. strategic steps undertaken to achieve that begin from conduct preliminary research, then lab scale testing, and dissemination and build cooperation with related parties (MOU), conduct last research and its applications in the field, then do the licensing and production of Nano-MFC on an industrial scale and publications to the public.

Keywords: CNT, efficiency, electric, microorganisms, sediment

Procedia PDF Downloads 388
77 Backward-Facing Step Measurements at Different Reynolds Numbers Using Acoustic Doppler Velocimetry

Authors: Maria Amelia V. C. Araujo, Billy J. Araujo, Brian Greenwood

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The flow over a backward-facing step is characterized by the presence of flow separation, recirculation and reattachment, for a simple geometry. This type of fluid behaviour takes place in many practical engineering applications, hence the reason for being investigated. Historically, fluid flows over a backward-facing step have been examined in many experiments using a variety of measuring techniques such as laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV), hot-wire anemometry, particle image velocimetry or hot-film sensors. However, some of these techniques cannot conveniently be used in separated flows or are too complicated and expensive. In this work, the applicability of the acoustic Doppler velocimetry (ADV) technique is investigated to such type of flows, at various Reynolds numbers corresponding to different flow regimes. The use of this measuring technique in separated flows is very difficult to find in literature. Besides, most of the situations where the Reynolds number effect is evaluated in separated flows are in numerical modelling. The ADV technique has the advantage in providing nearly non-invasive measurements, which is important in resolving turbulence. The ADV Nortek Vectrino+ was used to characterize the flow, in a recirculating laboratory flume, at various Reynolds Numbers (Reh = 3738, 5452, 7908 and 17388) based on the step height (h), in order to capture different flow regimes, and the results compared to those obtained using other measuring techniques. To compare results with other researchers, the step height, expansion ratio and the positions upstream and downstream the step were reproduced. The post-processing of the AVD records was performed using a customized numerical code, which implements several filtering techniques. Subsequently, the Vectrino noise level was evaluated by computing the power spectral density for the stream-wise horizontal velocity component. The normalized mean stream-wise velocity profiles, skin-friction coefficients and reattachment lengths were obtained for each Reh. Turbulent kinetic energy, Reynolds shear stresses and normal Reynolds stresses were determined for Reh = 7908. An uncertainty analysis was carried out, for the measured variables, using the moving block bootstrap technique. Low noise levels were obtained after implementing the post-processing techniques, showing their effectiveness. Besides, the errors obtained in the uncertainty analysis were relatively low, in general. For Reh = 7908, the normalized mean stream-wise velocity and turbulence profiles were compared directly with those acquired by other researchers using the LDV technique and a good agreement was found. The ADV technique proved to be able to characterize the flow properly over a backward-facing step, although additional caution should be taken for measurements very close to the bottom. The ADV measurements showed reliable results regarding: a) the stream-wise velocity profiles; b) the turbulent shear stress; c) the reattachment length; d) the identification of the transition from transitional to turbulent flows. Despite being a relatively inexpensive technique, acoustic Doppler velocimetry can be used with confidence in separated flows and thus very useful for numerical model validation. However, it is very important to perform adequate post-processing of the acquired data, to obtain low noise levels, thus decreasing the uncertainty.

Keywords: ADV, experimental data, multiple Reynolds number, post-processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 117
76 Coastal Vulnerability Index and Its Projection for Odisha Coast, East Coast of India

Authors: Bishnupriya Sahoo, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, coastal vulnerability index, power dissipation index, tropical cyclone

Procedia PDF Downloads 209
75 Sustainable Urban Regenaration the New Vocabulary and the Timless Grammar of the Urban Tissue

Authors: Ruth Shapira

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Introduction: The rapid urbanization of the last century confronts planners, regulatory bodies, developers and most of all the public with seemingly unsolved conflicts regarding values, capital, and wellbeing of the built and un-built urban space. There is an out of control change of scale of the urban form and of the rhythm of the urban life which has known no significant progress in the last 2-3 decades despite the on-growing urban population. It is the objective of this paper to analyze some of these fundamental issues through the case study of a relatively small town in the center of Israel (Kiryat-Ono, 36,000 inhabitants), unfold the deep structure of qualities versus disruptors, present some cure that we have developed to bridge over and humbly suggest a practice that may bring about a sustainable new urban environment based on timeless values of the past, an approach that can be generic for similar cases. Basic Methodologies:The object, the town of Kiryat Ono, shall be experimented upon in a series of four action processes: De-composition, Re-composition, the Centering process and, finally, Controlled Structural Disintegration. Each stage will be based on facts, analysis of previous multidisciplinary interventions on various layers – and the inevitable reaction of the OBJECT, leading to the conclusion based on innovative theoretical and practical methods that we have developed and that we believe are proper for the open ended network, setting the rules for the contemporary urban society to cluster by – thus – a new urban vocabulary based on the old structure of times passed. The Study: Kiryat Ono, was founded 70 years ago as an agricultural settlement and rapidly turned into an urban entity. In spite the massive intensification, the original DNA of the old small town was still deeply embedded, mostly in the quality of the public space and in the sense of clustered communities. In the past 20 years, the recent demand for housing has been addressed to on the national level with recent master plans and urban regeneration policies mostly encouraging individual economic initiatives. Unfortunately, due to the obsolete existing planning platform the present urban renewal is characterized by pressure of developers, a dramatic change in building scale and widespread disintegration of the existing urban and social tissue.Our office was commissioned to conceptualize two master plans for the two contradictory processes of Kiryat Ono’s future: intensification and conservation. Following a comprehensive investigation into the deep structures and qualities of the existing town, we developed a new vocabulary of conservation terms thus redefying the sense of PLACE. The main challenge was to create master plans that should offer a regulatory basis to the accelerated and sporadic development providing for the public good and preserving the characteristics of the place consisting of a tool box of design guidelines that will have the ability to reorganize space along the time axis in a sustainable way. In conclusion: The system of rules that we have developed can generate endless possible patterns making sure that at each implementation fragment an event is created, and a better place is revealed. It takes time and perseverance but it seems to be the way to provide a healthy and sustainable framework for the accelerated urbanization of our chaotic present.

Keywords: sustainable urban design, intensification, emergent urban patterns, sustainable housing, compact urban neighborhoods, sustainable regeneration, restoration, complexity, uncertainty, need for change, implications of legislation on local planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 371
74 Semantic Differential Technique as a Kansei Engineering Tool to Enquire Public Space Design Requirements: The Case of Parks in Tehran

Authors: Nasser Koleini Mamaghani, Sara Mostowfi

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The complexity of public space design makes it difficult for designers to simultaneously consider all issues for thorough decision-making. Among public spaces, the public space around people’s house is the most prominent space that affects and impacts people’s daily life. Considering recreational public spaces in cities, their main purpose would be to design for experiences that enable a deep feeling of peace and a moment of being away from the hectic daily life. Respecting human emotions and restoring natural environments, although difficult and to some extent out of reach, are key issues for designing such spaces. In this paper we propose to analyse the structure of recreational public spaces and the related emotional impressions. Furthermore, we suggest investigating how these structures influence people’s choice for public spaces by using differential semantics. According to Kansei methodology, in order to evaluate a situation appropriately, the assessment variables must be adapted to the user’s mental scheme. This means that the first step would have to be the identification of a space’s conceptual scheme. In our case study, 32 Kansei words and 4 different locations, each with a different sensual experience, were selected. The 4 locations were all parks in the city of Tehran (Iran), each with a unique structure and artifacts such as a fountain, lighting, sculptures, and music. It should be noted that each of these parks has different combination and structure of environmental and artificial elements like: fountain, lightning, sculpture, music (sound) and so forth. The first one was park No.1, a park with natural environment, the selected space was a fountain with motion light and sculpture. The second park was park No.2, in which there are different styles of park construction: ways from different countries, the selected space was traditional Iranian architecture with a fountain and trees. The third one was park No.3, the park with modern environment and spaces, and included a fountain that moved according to music and lighting. The fourth park was park No.4, the park with combination of four elements: water, fire, earth, wind, the selected space was fountains squirting water from the ground up. 80 participant (55 males and 25 females) aged from 20-60 years participated in this experiment. Each person filled the questionnaire in the park he/she was in. Five-point semantic differential scale was considered to determine the relation between space details and adjectives (kansei words). Received data were analyzed by multivariate statistical technique (factor analysis using SPSS statics). Finally the results of this analysis are criteria as inspiration which can be used in future space designing for creating pleasant feeling in users.

Keywords: environmental design, differential semantics, Kansei engineering, subjective preferences, space

Procedia PDF Downloads 387
73 A Systematic Review of Business Strategies Which Can Make District Heating a Platform for Sustainable Development of Other Sectors

Authors: Louise Ödlund, Danica Djuric Ilic

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Sustainable development includes many challenges related to energy use, such as (1) developing flexibility on the demand side of the electricity systems due to an increased share of intermittent electricity sources (e.g., wind and solar power), (2) overcoming economic challenges related to an increased share of renewable energy in the transport sector, (3) increasing efficiency of the biomass use, (4) increasing utilization of industrial excess heat (e.g., approximately two thirds of the energy currently used in EU is lost in the form of excess and waste heat). The European Commission has been recognized DH technology as of essential importance to reach sustainability. Flexibility in the fuel mix, and possibilities of industrial waste heat utilization, combined heat, and power (CHP) production and energy recovery through waste incineration, are only some of the benefits which characterize DH technology. The aim of this study is to provide an overview of the possible business strategies which would enable DH to have an important role in future sustainable energy systems. The methodology used in this study is a systematic literature review. The study includes a systematic approach where DH is seen as a part of an integrated system that consists of transport , industrial-, and electricity sectors as well. The DH technology can play a decisive role in overcoming the sustainability challenges related to our energy use. The introduction of biofuels in the transport sector can be facilitated by integrating biofuel and DH production in local DH systems. This would enable the development of local biofuel supply chains and reduce biofuel production costs. In this way, DH can also promote the development of biofuel production technologies that are not yet developed. Converting energy for running the industrial processes from fossil fuels and electricity to DH (above all biomass and waste-based DH) and delivering excess heat from industrial processes to the local DH systems would make the industry less dependent on fossil fuels and fossil fuel-based electricity, as well as the increasing energy efficiency of the industrial sector and reduce production costs. The electricity sector would also benefit from these measures. Reducing the electricity use in the industry sector while at the same time increasing the CHP production in the local DH systems would (1) replace fossil-based electricity production with electricity in biomass- or waste-fueled CHP plants and reduce the capacity requirements from the national electricity grid (i.e., it would reduce the pressure on the bottlenecks in the grid). Furthermore, by operating their central controlled heat pumps and CHP plants depending on the intermittent electricity production variation, the DH companies may enable an increased share of intermittent electricity production in the national electricity grid.

Keywords: energy system, district heating, sustainable business strategies, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 152
72 Analysis of Complex Business Negotiations: Contributions from Agency-Theory

Authors: Jan Van Uden

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The paper reviews classical agency-theory and its contributions to the analysis of complex business negotiations and gives an approach for the modification of the basic agency-model in order to examine the negotiation specific dimensions of agency-problems. By illustrating fundamental potentials for the modification of agency-theory in context of business negotiations the paper highlights recent empirical research that investigates agent-based negotiations and inter-team constellations. A general theoretical analysis of complex negotiation would be based on a two-level approach. First, the modification of the basic agency-model in order to illustrate the organizational context of business negotiations (i.e., multi-agent issues, common-agencies, multi-period models and the concept of bounded rationality). Second, the application of the modified agency-model on complex business negotiations to identify agency-problems and relating areas of risk in the negotiation process. The paper is placed on the first level of analysis – the modification. The method builds on the one hand on insights from behavior decision research (BRD) and on the other hand on findings from agency-theory as normative directives to the modification of the basic model. Through neoclassical assumptions concerning the fundamental aspects of agency-relationships in business negotiations (i.e., asymmetric information, self-interest, risk preferences and conflict of interests), agency-theory helps to draw solutions on stated worst-case-scenarios taken from the daily negotiation routine. As agency-theory is the only universal approach able to identify trade-offs between certain aspects of economic cooperation, insights obtained provide a deeper understanding of the forces that shape business negotiation complexity. The need for a modification of the basic model is illustrated by highlighting selected issues of business negotiations from agency-theory perspective: Negotiation Teams require a multi-agent approach under the condition that often decision-makers as superior-agents are part of the team. The diversity of competences and decision-making authority is a phenomenon that overrides the assumptions of classical agency-theory and varies greatly in context of certain forms of business negotiations. Further, the basic model is bound to dyadic relationships preceded by the delegation of decision-making authority and builds on a contractual created (vertical) hierarchy. As a result, horizontal dynamics within the negotiation team playing an important role for negotiation success are therefore not considered in the investigation of agency-problems. Also, the trade-off between short-term relationships within the negotiation sphere and the long-term relationships of the corporate sphere calls for a multi-period perspective taking into account the sphere-specific governance-mechanisms already established (i.e., reward and monitoring systems). Within the analysis, the implementation of bounded rationality is closely related to findings from BRD to assess the impact of negotiation behavior on underlying principal-agent-relationships. As empirical findings show, the disclosure and reservation of information to the agent affect his negotiation behavior as well as final negotiation outcomes. Last, in context of business negotiations, asymmetric information is often intended by decision-makers acting as superior-agents or principals which calls for a bilateral risk-approach to agency-relations.

Keywords: business negotiations, agency-theory, negotiation analysis, interteam negotiations

Procedia PDF Downloads 120
71 New Insulation Material for Solar Thermal Collectors

Authors: Nabila Ihaddadene, Razika Ihaddadene, Abdelwahaab Betka

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1973 energy crisis (rising oil prices) pushed the world to consider other alternative energy resources to existing conventional energies consisting predominantly of hydrocarbons. Renewable energies such as solar, the wind and geothermal have received renewed interest, especially to preserve nature ( the low-temperature rise of global environmental problems). Solar energy as an available, cheap and environmental friendly alternative source has various applications such as heating, cooling, drying, power generation, etc. In short, there is no life on earth without this enormous nuclear reactor, called the sun. Among available solar collector designs, flat plate collector (FPC) is low-temperature applications (heating water, space heating, etc.) due to its simple design and ease of manufacturing. Flat plate collectors are permanently fixed in position and do not track the sun (non-concentrating collectors). They operate by converting solar radiation into heat and transferring that heat to a working fluid (usually air, water, water plus antifreeze additive) flowing through them. An FPC generally consists of the main following components: glazing, absorber plate of high absorptivity, fluid tubes welded to or can be an integral part of the absorber plate, insulation and container or casing of the above-mentioned components. Insulation is of prime importance in thermal applications. There are three main families of insulation: mineral insulation; vegetal insulation and synthetic organic insulation. The old houses of the inhabitants of North Africa were built of brick made of composite material that is clay and straw. These homes are characterized by their thermal comfort; i.e. the air inside these houses is cool in summer and warm in winter. So, the material composed from clay and straw act as a thermal insulation. In this research document, the polystyrene used as insulation in the ET200 flat plate solar collector is replaced by the cheapest natural material which is clay and straw. Trials were carried out on a solar energy demonstration system (ET 200). This system contains a solar collector, water storage tank, a high power lamp simulating solar energy and a control and command cabinet. In the experimental device, the polystyrene is placed under the absorber plate and in the edges of the casing containing the components of the solar collector. In this work, we have replaced the polystyrene of the edges by the composite material. The use of the clay and straw as insulation instead of the polystyrene increases temperature difference (T2-T1) between the inlet and the outlet of the absorber by 0.9°C; thus increases the useful power transmitted to water in the solar collector. Tank Water is well heated when using the clay and straw as insulation. However, it is less heated when using the polystyrene as insulation. Clay and straw material improves also the performance of the solar collector by 5.77%. Thus, it is recommended to use this cheapest non-polluting material instead of synthetic insulation to improve the performance of the solar collector.

Keywords: clay, insulation material, polystyrene, solar collector, straw

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70 Magnetron Sputtered Thin-Film Catalysts with Low Noble Metal Content for Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolysis

Authors: Peter Kus, Anna Ostroverkh, Yurii Yakovlev, Yevheniia Lobko, Roman Fiala, Ivan Khalakhan, Vladimir Matolin

Abstract:

Hydrogen economy is a concept of low-emission society which harvests most of its energy from renewable sources (e.g., wind and solar) and in case of overproduction, electrochemically turns the excess amount into hydrogen, which serves as an energy carrier. Proton exchange membrane water electrolyzers (PEMWE) are the backbone of this concept. By fast-response electricity to hydrogen conversion, the PEMWEs will not only stabilize the electrical grid but also provide high-purity hydrogen for variety of fuel cell powered devices, ranging from consumer electronics to vehicles. Wider commercialization of PEMWE technology is however hindered by high prices of noble metals which are necessary for catalyzing the redox reactions within the cell. Namely, platinum for hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), running on cathode, and iridium for oxygen evolution reaction (OER) on anode. Possible way of how to lower the loading of Pt and Ir is by using conductive high-surface nanostructures as catalyst supports in conjunction with thin-film catalyst deposition. The presented study discusses unconventional technique of membrane electron assembly (MEA) preparation. Noble metal catalysts (Pt and Ir) were magnetron sputtered in very low loadings onto the surface of porous sublayers (located on gas diffusion layer or directly on membrane), forming so to say localized three-phase boundary. Ultrasonically sprayed corrosion resistant TiC-based sublayer was used as a support material on anode, whereas magnetron sputtered nanostructured etched nitrogenated carbon (CNx) served the same role on cathode. By using this configuration, we were able to significantly decrease the amount of noble metals (to thickness of just tens of nanometers), while keeping the performance comparable to that of average state-of-the-art catalysts. Complex characterization of prepared supported catalysts includes in-cell performance and durability tests, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) as well as scanning electron microscopy (SEM) imaging and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analysis. Our research proves that magnetron sputtering is a suitable method for thin-film deposition of electrocatalysts. Tested set-up of thin-film supported anode and cathode catalysts with combined loading of just 120 ug.cm⁻² yields remarkable values of specific current. Described approach of thin-film low-loading catalyst deposition might be relevant when noble metal reduction is the topmost priority.

Keywords: hydrogen economy, low-loading catalyst, magnetron sputtering, proton exchange membrane water electrolyzer

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69 Upgrade of Value Chains and the Effect on Resilience of Russia’s Coal Industry and Receiving Regions on the Path of Energy Transition

Authors: Sergey Nikitenko, Vladimir Klishin, Yury Malakhov, Elena Goosen

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Transition to renewable energy sources (solar, wind, bioenergy, etc.) and launching of alternative energy generation has weakened the role of coal as a source of energy. The Paris Agreement and assumption of obligations by many nations to orderly reduce CO₂ emissions by means of technological modernization and climate change adaptation has abridged coal demand yet more. This paper aims to assess current resilience of the coal industry to stress and to define prospects for coal production optimization using high technologies pursuant to global challenges and requirements of energy transition. Our research is based on the resilience concept adapted to the coal industry. It is proposed to divide the coal sector into segments depending on the prevailing value chains (VC). Four representative models of VC are identified in the coal sector. The most promising lines of upgrading VC in the coal industry include: •Elongation of VC owing to introduction of clean technologies of coal conversion and utilization; •Creation of parallel VC by means of waste management; •Branching of VC (conversion of a company’s VC into a production network). The upgrade effectiveness is governed in many ways by applicability of advanced coal processing technologies, usability of waste, expandability of production, entrance to non-rival markets and localization of new segments of VC in receiving regions. It is also important that upgrade of VC by means of formation of agile high-tech inter-industry production networks within the framework of operating surface and underground mines can reduce social, economic and ecological risks associated with closure of coal mines. Such promising route of VC upgrade is application of methanotrophic bacteria to produce protein to be used as feed-stuff in fish, poultry and cattle breeding, or in production of ferments, lipoids, sterols, antioxidants, pigments and polysaccharides. Closed mines can use recovered methane as a clean energy source. There exist methods of methane utilization from uncontrollable sources, including preliminary treatment and recovery of methane from air-and-methane mixture, or decomposition of methane to hydrogen and acetylene. Separated hydrogen is used in hydrogen fuel cells to generate power to feed the process of methane utilization and to supply external consumers. Despite the recent paradigm of carbon-free energy generation, it is possible to preserve the coal mining industry using the differentiated approach to upgrade of value chains based on flexible technologies with regard to specificity of mining companies.

Keywords: resilience, resilience concept, resilience indicator, resilience in the Russian coal industry, value chains

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68 The Elimination of Fossil Fuel Subsidies from the Road Transportation Sector and the Promotion of Electro Mobility: The Ecuadorian Case

Authors: Henry Gonzalo Acurio Flores, Alvaro Nicolas Corral Naveda, Juan Francisco Fonseca Palacios

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In Ecuador, subventions on fossil fuels for the road transportation sector have always been part of its economy throughout time, mainly because of demagogy and populism from political leaders. It is clearly seen that the government cannot maintain the subsidies anymore due to its commercial balance and its general state budget; subsidies are a key barrier to implementing the use of cleaner technologies. However, during the last few months, the elimination of subsidies has been done gradually with the purpose of reaching international prices. It is expected that with this measure, the population will opt for other means of transportation, and in a certain way, it will promote the use of private electric vehicles and public, e.g., taxis and buses (urban transport). Considering the three main elements of sustainable development, an analysis of the social, economic, and environmental impacts of eliminating subsidies will be generated at the country level. To achieve this, four scenarios will be developed in order to determine how the subsidies will contribute to the promotion of electro-mobility. 1) A Business as Usual BAU scenario; 2) the introduction of 10 000 electric vehicles by 2025; 3) the introduction of 100 000 electric vehicles by 2030; 4) the introduction of 750 000 electric vehicles by 2040 (for all the scenarios buses, taxis, lightweight duty vehicles, and private vehicles will be introduced, as it is established in the National Electro Mobility Strategy for Ecuador). The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) will be used, and it will be suitable to determine the cost for the government in terms of importing derivatives for fossil fuels and the cost of electricity to power the electric fleet that can be changed. The elimination of subventions generates fiscal resources for the state that can be used to develop other kinds of projects that will benefit Ecuadorian society. It will definitely change the energy matrix, and it will provide energy security for the country; it will be an opportunity for the government to incentivize a greater introduction of renewable energies, e.g., solar, wind, and geothermal. At the same time, it will also reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from the transportation sector, considering its mitigation potential, which as a result, will ameliorate the inhabitant quality of life by improving the quality of air, therefore reducing respiratory diseases associated with exhaust emissions, consequently, achieving sustainability, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and complying with the agreements established in the Paris Agreement COP 21 in 2015. Electro mobility in Latin America and the Caribbean can only be achieved by the implementation of the right policies at the central government, which need to be accompanied by a National Urban Mobility Policy (NUMP) and can encompass a greater vision to develop holistic, sustainable transport systems at local governments.

Keywords: electro mobility, energy, policy, sustainable transportation

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67 Observation on the Performance of Heritage Structures in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal during the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake

Authors: K. C. Apil, Keshab Sharma, Bigul Pokharel

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Kathmandu Valley, capital city of Nepal houses numerous historical monuments as well as religious structures which are as old as from the 4th century A.D. The city alone is home to seven UNESCO’s world heritage sites including various public squares and religious sanctums which are often regarded as living heritages by various historians and archeological explorers. Recently on April 25, 2015, the capital city including other nearby locations was struck with Gorkha earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8, followed by the strongest aftershock of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.3 on May 12. This study reports structural failures and collapse of heritage structures in Kathmandu Valley during the earthquake and presents preliminary findings as to the causes of failures and collapses. Field reconnaissance was carried immediately after the main shock and the aftershock, in major heritage sites: UNESCO world heritage sites, a number of temples and historic buildings in Kathmandu Durbar Square, Patan Durbar Square, and Bhaktapur Durbar Square. Despite such catastrophe, a significant number of heritage structures stood high, performing very well during the earthquake. Preliminary reports from archeological department suggest that 721 of such structures were severely affected, whereas numbers within the valley only were 444 including 76 structures which were completely collapsed. This study presents recorded accelerograms and geology of Kathmandu Valley. Structural typology and architecture of the heritage structures in Kathmandu Valley are briefly described. Case histories of damaged heritage structures, the patterns, and the failure mechanisms are also discussed in this paper. It was observed that performance of heritage structures was influenced by the multiple factors such as structural and architecture typology, configuration, and structural deficiency, local ground site effects and ground motion characteristics, age and maintenance level, material quality etc. Most of such heritage structures are of masonry type using bricks and earth-mortar as a bonding agent. The walls' resistance is mainly compressive, thus capable of withstanding vertical static gravitational load but not horizontal dynamic seismic load. There was no definitive pattern of damage to heritage structures as most of them behaved as a composite structure. Some structures were extensively damaged in some locations, while structures with similar configuration at nearby location had little or no damage. Out of major heritage structures, Dome, Pagoda (2, 3 or 5 tiered temples) and Shikhara structures were studied with similar variables. Studying varying degrees of damages in such structures, it was found that Shikhara structures were most vulnerable one where Dome structures were found to be the most stable one, followed by Pagoda structures. The seismic performance of the masonry-timber and stone masonry structures were slightly better than that of the masonry structures. Regular maintenance and periodic seismic retrofitting seems to have played pivotal role in strengthening seismic performance of the structure. The study also recommends some key functions to strengthen the seismic performance of such structures through study based on structural analysis, building material behavior and retrofitting details. The result also recognises the importance of documentation of traditional knowledge and its revised transformation in modern technology.

Keywords: Gorkha earthquake, field observation, heritage structure, seismic performance, masonry building

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66 Widely Diversified Macroeconomies in the Super-Long Run Casts a Doubt on Path-Independent Equilibrium Growth Model

Authors: Ichiro Takahashi

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One of the major assumptions of mainstream macroeconomics is the path independence of capital stock. This paper challenges this assumption by employing an agent-based approach. The simulation results showed the existence of multiple "quasi-steady state" equilibria of the capital stock, which may cast serious doubt on the validity of the assumption. The finding would give a better understanding of many phenomena that involve hysteresis, including the causes of poverty. The "market-clearing view" has been widely shared among major schools of macroeconomics. They understand that the capital stock, the labor force, and technology, determine the "full-employment" equilibrium growth path and demand/supply shocks can move the economy away from the path only temporarily: the dichotomy between the short-run business cycles and the long-run equilibrium path. The view then implicitly assumes the long-run capital stock to be independent of how the economy has evolved. In contrast, "Old Keynesians" have recognized fluctuations in output as arising largely from fluctuations in real aggregate demand. It will then be an interesting question to ask if an agent-based macroeconomic model, which is known to have path dependence, can generate multiple full-employment equilibrium trajectories of the capital stock in the super-long run. If the answer is yes, the equilibrium level of capital stock, an important supply-side factor, would no longer be independent of the business cycle phenomenon. This paper attempts to answer the above question by using the agent-based macroeconomic model developed by Takahashi and Okada (2010). The model would serve this purpose well because it has neither population growth nor technology progress. The objective of the paper is twofold: (1) to explore the causes of long-term business cycle, and (2) to examine the super-long behaviors of the capital stock of full-employment economies. (1) The simulated behaviors of the key macroeconomic variables such as output, employment, real wages showed widely diversified macro-economies. They were often remarkably stable but exhibited both short-term and long-term fluctuations. The long-term fluctuations occur through the following two adjustments: the quantity and relative cost adjustments of capital stock. The first one is obvious and assumed by many business cycle theorists. The reduced aggregate demand lowers prices, which raises real wages, thereby decreasing the relative cost of capital stock with respect to labor. (2) The long-term business cycles/fluctuations were synthesized with the hysteresis of real wages, interest rates, and investments. In particular, a sequence of the simulation runs with a super-long simulation period generated a wide range of perfectly stable paths, many of which achieved full employment: all the macroeconomic trajectories, including capital stock, output, and employment, were perfectly horizontal over 100,000 periods. Moreover, the full-employment level of capital stock was influenced by the history of unemployment, which was itself path-dependent. Thus, an experience of severe unemployment in the past kept the real wage low, which discouraged a relatively costly investment in capital stock. Meanwhile, a history of good performance sometimes brought about a low capital stock due to a high-interest rate that was consistent with a strong investment.

Keywords: agent-based macroeconomic model, business cycle, hysteresis, stability

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