Search results for: conditional variance coefficient
Commenced in January 2007
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Paper Count: 3457

Search results for: conditional variance coefficient

847 The Turkish Version of the Carer’s Assessment of Satisfaction Index (CASI-TR): Its Cultural Adaptation, Validation, and Reliability

Authors: Cemile Kütmeç Yilmaz, Güler Duru Asiret, Gulcan Bagcivan

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the Turkish version of the Carer’s Assessment of Satisfaction Index (CASI-TR). The study was conducted between the dates of June 2016 and September 2017 at the Training and Research Hospital of Aksaray University with the caregiving family members of the inpatients with chronic diseases. For this study, the sample size was calculated as at least 10 individuals for each item (item number (30)X10=300). The study sample included 300 caregiving family members, who provided primer care for at least three months for a patient (who had at least one chronic disease and received inpatient treatment in general internal medicine and palliative care units). Data were collected by using a demographic questionnaire and CASI-TR. Descriptive statistics, and psychometric tests were used for the data analysis. Of those caregivers, 76.7% were female, 86.3% were 65 years old and below, 43.7% were primary school graduates, 87% were married, 86% were not working, 66.3% were housewives, and 60.3% defined their income status as having an income covering one’s expenses. Care recipients often had problems in terms of walking, sleep, balance, feeding and urinary incontinence. The Cronbach Alpha value calculated for the CASI-TR (30 items) was 0,949. Internal consistency coefficients calculated for subscales were: 0.922 for the subscale of ‘caregiver satisfaction related to care recipient’, 0.875 for the subscale of ‘caregiver satisfaction related to themselves’, and 0.723 for the subscale of ‘dynamics of interpersonal relations’. Factor analysis revealed that three factors accounted for 57.67% of the total variance, with an eigenvalue of >1. assessed in terms of significance, we saw that the items came together in a significant manner. The factor load of the items were between 0.311 and 0.874. These results show that the CASI-TR is a valid and reliable scale. The adoption of the translated CASI in Turkey is found reliable and valid to assessing the satisfaction of caregivers. CASI-TR can be used easily in clinics or house visits by nurses and other health professionals for assessing caregiver satisfaction from caregiving.

Keywords: carer’s assessment of satisfaction index, caregiver, validity, reliability

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846 The Psychometric Properties of an Instrument to Estimate Performance in Ball Tasks Objectively

Authors: Kougioumtzis Konstantin, Rylander Pär, Karlsteen Magnus

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Ball skills as a subset of fundamental motor skills are predictors for performance in sports. Currently, most tools evaluate ball skills utilizing subjective ratings. The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of a newly developed instrument to objectively measure ball handling skills (BHS-test) utilizing digital instrument. Participants were a convenience sample of 213 adolescents (age M = 17.1 years, SD =3.6; 55% females, 45% males) recruited from upper secondary schools and invited to a sports hall for the assessment. The 8-item instrument incorporated both accuracy-based ball skill tests and repetitive-performance tests with a ball. Testers counted performance manually in the four tests (one throwing and three juggling tasks). Furthermore, assessment was technologically enhanced in the other four tests utilizing a ball machine, a Kinect camera and balls with motion sensors (one balancing and three rolling tasks). 3D printing technology was used to construct equipment, while all results were administered digitally with smart phones/tablets, computers and a specially constructed application to send data to a server. The instrument was deemed reliable (α = .77) and principal component analysis was used in a random subset (53 of the participants). Furthermore, latent variable modeling was employed to confirm the structure with the remaining subset (160 of the participants). The analysis showed good factorial-related validity with one factor explaining 57.90 % of the total variance. Four loadings were larger than .80, two more exceeded .76 and the other two were .65 and .49. The one factor solution was confirmed by a first order model with one general factor and an excellent fit between model and data (χ² = 16.12, DF = 20; RMSEA = .00, CI90 .00–.05; CFI = 1.00; SRMR = .02). The loadings on the general factor ranged between .65 and .83. Our findings indicate good reliability and construct validity for the BHS-test. To develop the instrument further, more studies are needed with various age-groups, e.g. children. We suggest using the BHS-test for diagnostic or assessment purpose for talent development and sports participation interventions that focus on ball games.

Keywords: ball-handling skills, ball-handling ability, technologically-enhanced measurements, assessment

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845 Ergosterol Biosynthesis: Non-Conventional Method for Improving Process

Authors: Madalina Postaru, Alexandra Tucaliuc, Dan Cascaval, Anca Irina Galaction

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Ergosterol (ergosta-5,7,22-trien-3β-ol) is the precursor of vitamin D2 (ergocalciferol), known as provitamin D2 as it is converted under UV radiation to this vitamin. The natural sources of ergosterol are mainly the yeasts (Saccharomyces sp., Candida sp.), but it can be also found in fungus (Claviceps sp.) or plants (orchids). As ergosterol is mainly accumulated in yeast cell membranes, especially in free form in the plasma-membrane, and the chemical synthesis of ergosterol does not represent an efficient method for its production, this study aimed to analyze the influence of aeration efficiency on ergosterol production by S. cerevisiae in batch and fed-batch fermentations, by considering different levels of mixing intensity, aeration rate, and n-dodecane concentration. Our previous studies on ergosterol production by S. cerevisiae in batch and fed-batch fermentation systems indicated that the addition of n-dodecane led to the increase of almost 50% of this sterol concentration, the highest productivity being reached for the fed-batch process. The experiments were carried out in a laboratory stirred bioreactor, provided with computer-controlled and recorded parameters. In batch fermentation system, the study indicated that the oxygen mass transfer coefficient, kLa, is amplified for about 3 times by increasing the volumetric concentration of n-dodecane from 0 to 15%. Moreover, the increase of dissolved oxygen concentration by adding n-dodecane leads to the diminution for 3.5 times of the produced alcohol amount. In fed-batch fermentation process, the positive influence of hydrocarbon on oxygen transfer rate is amplified mainly at its higher concentration level, as the result of the increased yeasts cells amount. Thus, by varying n-dodecane concentration from 0 to 15% vol., the kLa value increase becomes more important than for the batch fermentation, being of 4 times

Keywords: ergosterol, yeast fermentation, n-dodecane, oxygen-vector

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844 Multimedia Technologies Utilisation as Predictors of Lecturers’ Teaching Effectiveness in Colleges of Education in South-West, Nigeria

Authors: Abel Olusegun Egunjobi, Olusegun Oyeleye Adesanya

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Teaching effectiveness of lecturers in a tertiary institution in Nigeria is one of the determinants of the lecturer’s productivity. In this study, therefore, lecturers’ teaching effectiveness was examined vis-à-vis their multimedia technologies utilisation in Colleges of Education (CoE) in South-West, Nigeria. This is for the purpose of ascertaining the relationship and contribution of multimedia technologies utilisation to lecturers’ teaching effectiveness in Nigerian colleges of education. The descriptive survey research design was adopted in the study, while a multi-stage sampling procedure was used in the study. A stratified sampling technique was used to select colleges of education, and a simple random sampling method was employed to select lecturers from the selected colleges of education. A total of 862 lecturers (627 males and 235 females) were selected from the colleges of education used for the study. The instrument used was lecturers’ questionnaire on multimedia technologies utilisation and teaching effectiveness with a reliability coefficient of 0.85 at 0.05 level of significance. The data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics, multiple regression, and t-test. The findings showed that the level of multimedia technologies utilisation in colleges of education was low, whereas lecturers’ teaching effectiveness was high. Findings also revealed that the lecturers used multimedia technologies purposely for personal and professional developments, so also for up to date news on economic and political matters. Also, findings indicated that laptop, Ipad, CD-ROMs, and computer instructional software were the multimedia technologies frequently utilised by the lecturers. There was also a significant difference in the teaching effectiveness between lecturers in the Federal and State COE. The government should, therefore, make adequate provision for multimedia technologies in the COE in Nigeria for lecturers’ utilisation in their instructions so as to boost their students’ learning outcomes.

Keywords: colleges of education, lecturers’ teaching effectiveness, multimedia technologies utilisation, Southwest Nigeria

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843 Analysis of the Level of Production Failures by Implementing New Assembly Line

Authors: Joanna Kochanska, Dagmara Gornicka, Anna Burduk

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The article examines the process of implementing a new assembly line in a manufacturing enterprise of the household appliances industry area. At the initial stages of the project, a decision was made that one of its foundations should be the concept of lean management. Because of that, eliminating as many errors as possible in the first phases of its functioning was emphasized. During the start-up of the line, there were identified and documented all production losses (from serious machine failures, through any unplanned downtime, to micro-stops and quality defects). During 6 weeks (line start-up period), all errors resulting from problems in various areas were analyzed. These areas were, among the others, production, logistics, quality, and organization. The aim of the work was to analyze the occurrence of production failures during the initial phase of starting up the line and to propose a method for determining their critical level during its full functionality. There was examined the repeatability of the production losses in various areas and at different levels at such an early stage of implementation, by using the methods of statistical process control. Based on the Pareto analysis, there were identified the weakest points in order to focus improvement actions on them. The next step was to examine the effectiveness of the actions undertaken to reduce the level of recorded losses. Based on the obtained results, there was proposed a method for determining the critical failures level in the studied areas. The developed coefficient can be used as an alarm in case of imbalance of the production, which is caused by the increased failures level in production and production support processes in the period of the standardized functioning of the line.

Keywords: production failures, level of production losses, new production line implementation, assembly line, statistical process control

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842 Developing Well-Being Indicators and Measurement Methods as Illustrated by Projects Aimed at Preventing Obesity in Children

Authors: E. Grochowska-Niedworok, K. Brukało, M. Hadasik, M. Kardas

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Consumption of vegetables by school children and adolescents is essential for their normal growth, development and health, but a significant minority of the world's population consumes the right amount of these products. The aim of the study was to evaluate the preferences and frequency of consumption of vegetables by school children and adolescents. It has been assumed that effectively implemented nutrition education programs should have an impact on increasing the frequency of vegetable consumption among the recipients. The study covered 514 students of five schools in the Opole Voivodeship aged 9 years to 22 years. The research tool was an author's questionnaire, which consisted of closed questions on the frequency of vegetable consumption and the use of 10 ways to treat them. Preferences and frequencies are shown in percentages, while correlations were estimated on the basis of Cramer`s V and gamma coefficients. In each of the examined age groups, the relationship between sex and vegetable consumption (the Cramer`s V coefficient value was 0.06 to 0.38) was determined and the various methods of culinary processing were used (V Craméra was 0.08 to 0.34). For both sexes, the relationship between age and frequency of vegetable consumption was shown (gamma values ranged from ~ 0.00 to 0.39) and different cooking methods (gamma values were 0.01 to 0.22). The most important determinant of nutritional choices is the taste and availability of products. The fact that they have a positive effect on their health is only in third position. As has been shown, obesity prevention programs can not only address nutrition education but also teach about new flavors and increase the availability of healthy foods. In addition, the frequency of vegetable consumption can be a good indicator reflecting the healthy behaviors of children and adolescents.

Keywords: children and adolescents, frequency, welfare rate, vegetables

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841 Influence of Counterface and Environmental Conditions on the Lubricity of Multilayer Graphene Coatings Produced on Nickel by Chemical Vapour Deposition

Authors: Iram Zahra

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Friction and wear properties of multilayer graphene coatings (MLG) on nickel substrate were investigated at the macroscale, and different failure mechanisms working at the interface of nickel-graphene coatings were evaluated. Multilayer graphene coatings were produced on a nickel substrate using the atmospheric chemical vapour deposition (CVD) technique. Wear tests were performed on the pin-on-disk tribometer apparatus under dry air conditions, and using the saltwater solution, distilled water, and mineral oil lubricants and counterparts used in these wear tests were fabricated of stainless steel, chromium, and silicon nitride. The wear test parameters such as rotational speed, wear track diameter, temperature, relative humidity, and load were 60 rpm, 6 mm, 22˚C, 45%, and 2N, respectively. To analyse the friction and wear behaviour, coefficient of friction (COF) vs time curves were plotted, and the sliding surfaces of the samples and counterparts were examined using the optical microscope. Results indicated that graphene-coated nickel in mineral oil lubrication and dry conditions gave the minimum average value of COP (0.05) and wear track width ( ̴151 µm) against the three different types of counterparts. In contrast, uncoated nickel samples indicated a maximum wear track width ( ̴411 µm) and COF (0.5). Thorough investigation and analysis concluded that graphene-coated samples have two times lower COF and three times lower wear than the bare nickel samples. Furthermore, mechanical failures were significantly lower in the case of graphene-coated nickel. The overall findings suggested that multilayer graphene coatings have drastically decreased wear and friction on nickel substrate at the macroscale under various lubricating conditions and against different counterparts.

Keywords: friction, lubricity, multilayer graphene, sliding, wear

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840 Establishment of a Nomogram Prediction Model for Postpartum Hemorrhage during Vaginal Delivery

Authors: Yinglisong, Jingge Chen, Jingxuan Chen, Yan Wang, Hui Huang, Jing Zhnag, Qianqian Zhang, Zhenzhen Zhang, Ji Zhang

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Purpose: The study aims to establish a nomogram prediction model for postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) in vaginal delivery. Patients and Methods: Clinical data were retrospectively collected from vaginal delivery patients admitted to a hospital in Zhengzhou, China, from June 1, 2022 - October 31, 2022. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to filter out independent risk factors. A nomogram model was established for PPH in vaginal delivery based on the risk factors coefficient. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation. To assess discrimination and calibration, receiver operator characteristics (ROC) and calibration curves were generated in the derivation and validation groups. Results: A total of 1340 cases of vaginal delivery were enrolled, with 81 (6.04%) having PPH. Logistic regression indicated that history of uterine surgery, induction of labor, duration of first labor, neonatal weight, WBC value (during the first stage of labor), and cervical lacerations were all independent risk factors of hemorrhage (P <0.05). The area-under-curve (AUC) of ROC curves of the derivation group and the validation group were 0.817 and 0.821, respectively, indicating good discrimination. Two calibration curves showed that nomogram prediction and practical results were highly consistent (P = 0.105, P = 0.113). Conclusion: The developed individualized risk prediction nomogram model can assist midwives in recognizing and diagnosing high-risk groups of PPH and initiating early warning to reduce PPH incidence.

Keywords: vaginal delivery, postpartum hemorrhage, risk factor, nomogram

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839 The Use of Palm Kernel Cake in Ration and Its Influence on VFA, NH3 and pH Rumen Fluid of Goat

Authors: Arief, Noovirman Jamarun, Benni Satria

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Background: The main problem in the development of livestock in Indonesia is feed both in terms of quality and quantity. On the other hand, conventional feed ingredients are expensive and difficult to obtain. Therefore, it is necessary to find alternative feed ingredients that have good quality, potential, and low cost. Feed ingredients that meet the above requirements are by-products of the palm oil industry, namely palm kernel cake (PKC). This study aims to obtain the best PKC composition for Etawa goat concentrate ration. Material and Methode : This research consists of 2 stages. Stage I is invitro study using Tilley and Terry method. The study used a Completely Randomized Design (CRD) with 4 treatments of rations and 4 replications. The treatment is the composition of the use of palm kernel cake (PKC) in the ration, namely, A). 10%, B). 20%, C). 30%, D). 40%. Other feed ingredients are corn, rice bran, tofu waste and minerals. The measured variables are the characteristics of the rumen fluid (pH, VFA and NH3). Stage II was done using the best ration of stage I (Ration C), followed by testing the use of Tithonia (Thitonia difersifolia) and agricultural waste of sweet potato leaves as a source of forage for livestock by in-vitro. The study used a Completely Randomized Design (CRD) with 3 treatments and 5 replications. The treatments were: Treatment A) Best Concentrate Ration Stage I + Titonia (Thitonia difersifolia), Treatment B) Best Concentrate Ration Stage I + Tithonia (Thitonia difersifolia) and Sweet potato Leaves, Treatment C) Best Concentrate Ration Stage I + Sweet potato leaves. The data obtained were analyzed using variance analysis while the differences between treatments were tested using the Duncant Multiple Range Test (DMRT) according to Steel and Torrie. Results of Stage II showed that the use of PKC in rations as concentrate feed combined with forage originating from Tithonia (Thitonia difersifolia) and sweet potato leaves produced pH, VFA and NH3-N which were still in normal conditions. The best treatment was obtained from diet B (P <0.05) with 6.9 pH, 116.29 mM VFA and 15mM NH3-N. Conclussion From the results of the study it can be concluded that PKC can be used as feed ingredients for dairy goat concentrate with a combination of forage from Tithonia (Tithonia difersifolia) and sweet potato leaves.

Keywords: palm oil by-product, palm kernel cake, concentrate, rumen fluid, Etawa goat

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838 Dispersion Effects in Waves Reflected by Lossy Conductors: The Optics vs. Electromagnetics Approach

Authors: Oibar Martinez, Clara Oliver, Jose Miguel Miranda

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The study of dispersion phenomena in electromagnetic waves reflected by conductors at infrared and lower frequencies is a topic which finds a number of applications. We aim to explain in this work what are the most relevant ones and how this phenomenon is modeled from both optics and electromagnetics points of view. We also explain here how the amplitude of an electromagnetic wave reflected by a lossy conductor could depend on both the frequency of the incident wave, as well as on the electrical properties of the conductor, and we illustrate this phenomenon with a practical example. The mathematical analysis made by a specialist in electromagnetics or a microwave engineer is apparently very different from the one made by a specialist in optics. We show here how both approaches lead to the same physical result and what are the key concepts which enable one to understand that despite the differences in the equations the solution to the problem happens to be the same. Our study starts with an analysis made by using the complex refractive index and the reflectance parameter. We show how this reflectance has a dependence with the square root of the frequency when the reflecting material is a good conductor, and the frequency of the wave is low enough. Then we analyze the same problem with a less known approach, which is based on the reflection coefficient of the electric field, a parameter that is most commonly used in electromagnetics and microwave engineering. In summary, this paper presents a mathematical study illustrated with a worked example which unifies the modeling of dispersion effects made by specialists in optics and the one made by specialists in electromagnetics. The main finding of this work is that it is possible to reproduce the dependence of the Fresnel reflectance with frequency from the intrinsic impedance of the reflecting media.

Keywords: dispersion, electromagnetic waves, microwaves, optics

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837 Analysis of the Effective Components on the Performance of the Public Sector in Iran

Authors: Mahsa Habibzadeh

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The function is defined as the process of systematic and systematic measurement of the components of how each task is performed and determining their potential for improvement in accordance with the specific standards of each component. Hence, evaluation is the basis for the improvement of organizations' functional excellence and the move towards performance excellence depends on performance improvement planning. Because of the past two decades, the public sector system has undergone dramatic changes. The purpose of such developments is often to overcome the barriers of the bureaucratic system, which impedes the efficient use of limited resources. Implementing widespread changes in the public sector of developed and even developing countries has led the process of developments to be addressed by many researchers. In this regard, the present paper has been carried out with the approach of analyzing the components that affect the performance of the public sector in Iran. To achieve this goal, indicators that affect the performance of the public sector and the factors affecting the improvement of its accountability have been identified. The research method in this research is descriptive and analytical. A statistical population of 120 people consists of managers and employees of the public sector in Iran. The questionnaires were distributed among them and analyzed using SPSS and LISREL software. The obtained results indicate that the results of the research findings show that between responsibilities there is a significant relationship between participation of managers and employees, legality, justice and transparency of specialty and competency, participation in public sector functions. Also, the significant coefficient for the liability variable is 3.31 for justice 2.89 for transparency 1.40 for legality of 2.27 for specialty and competence 2.13 and 5.17 for participation 5.17. Implementing indicators that affect the performance of the public sector can lead to satisfaction of the audience.

Keywords: performance, accountability system, public sector, components

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836 Effect of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge in a Sub-Humid Sub-Tropical Region of Eastern India

Authors: Suraj Jena, Rabindra Kumar Panda

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The study region of the reported study was in Eastern India, having a sub-humid sub-tropical climate and sandy loam soil. The rainfall in this region has wide temporal and spatial variation. Due to lack of adequate surface water to meet the irrigation and household demands, groundwater is being over exploited in that region leading to continuous depletion of groundwater level. Therefore, there is an obvious urgency in reversing the depleting groundwater level through induced recharge, which becomes more critical under the climate change scenarios. The major goal of the reported study was to investigate the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge and subsequent adaptation strategies. Groundwater recharge was modelled using HELP3, a quasi-two-dimensional, deterministic, water-routing model along with global climate models (GCMs) and three global warming scenarios, to examine the changes in groundwater recharge rates for a 2030 climate under a variety of soil and vegetation covers. The relationship between the changing mean annual recharge and mean annual rainfall was evaluated for every combination of soil and vegetation using sensitivity analysis. The relationship was found to be statistically significant (p<0.05) with a coefficient of determination of 0.81. Vegetation dynamics and water-use affected by the increase in potential evapotranspiration for large climate variability scenario led to significant decrease in recharge from 49–658 mm to 18–179 mm respectively. Therefore, appropriate conjunctive use, irrigation schedule and enhanced recharge practices under the climate variability and land use/land cover change scenarios impacting the groundwater recharge needs to be understood properly for groundwater sustainability.

Keywords: Groundwater recharge, climate variability, Land use/cover, GCM

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835 Assessment of the Association between Serum Thrombospondin-1 Levels at the Time of Admission and the Severity of Neurological Deficit in Patients with Ischemic Stroke

Authors: A. Alhusban, M. Alqawasmeh, F. Alfawares

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Introduction: Despite improvements in stroke management, it remains the leading cause of disability worldwide. It has been suggested that enhancing brain angiogenesis after stroke will improve stroke outcome. Promoting post stroke angiogenesis requires the upregulation of angiogenic factors with a simultaneous reduction of anti-angiogenic factors. Thrombospondin-1 is the main anti-angiogenic protein in the living cells. Counterintuitively, it has been shown that animals with Thrombospondin-1 knockdown will have better stroke outcome. Data about the clinical significance of Thrombspondin-1 levels at the time of admission is still lacking. The objective of this work is to assess the association between serum Thrombospondin-1 levels measured at the time of admission and baseline neurologic severity after stroke. Patients and Methods: Blood samples were collected from patients admitted to the King Abdullah University Hospital (KAUH) with ischemic stroke at the time of admission and serum Thrombopsondin-1 levels were measured using ELISA. Patients neurologic severity was evaluated using the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). Results: Samples from 50 patients admitted between January 2016 and December 2016 were collected. The median age of participants was 68 years and the median NIHSS was 3. Multinomial regression identified serum Thrombospondin-1 as an independent predictor of stroke outcome (p=0.003). Baseline serum Thrombsopondin-1 was negatively associated with NIHSS at the time of admission (spearman rho correlation coefficient=0.272, p=0.032). Conclusion: Serum Thrombospondin-1 at the time of admission may be a useful marker of stroke severity that predicts more severe neurologic severity.

Keywords: thrombospondin, stroke, neuroprotection, biomarkers

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834 Experimental Study of the Dynamics of Sediments in Natural Channels in a Non-Stationary Flow Regime

Authors: Fourar Ali, Fourar Fatima Zohra

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Knowledge of sediment characteristics is fundamental to understanding their sedimentary functioning: sedimentation, settlement, and erosion processes of cohesive sediments are controlled by complex interactions between physical, chemical, and biological factors. Sediment transport is of primary importance in river hydraulics and river engineering. Indeed, the displacement of sediments can lead to lasting modifications of the bed in terms of its elevation, slope and roughness. The protection of a bank, for example, is likely to initiate a local incision of the river bed, which, in turn, can lead to the subsidence of the bank. The flows in the natural environment occur in general with heterogeneous boundary conditions because of the distribution of the roughnesses of the fixed or mobile bottoms and of the important deformations of the free surface, especially for the flows with a weak draft considering the irregularity of the bottom. Bedforms significantly influence flow resistance. The arrangement of particles lining the bottom of the stream bed or experimental channel generates waveforms of different sizes that lead to changes in roughness and consequently spatial variability in the turbulent characteristics of the flow. The study which is focused on the laws of friction in alluvial beds, aims to analyze the characteristics of flows and materials constituting the natural channels. Experimental results were obtained by simulating these flows on a rough bottom in an experimental channel at the Hydraulics Laboratory of the University of Batna 2. The system of equations governing the problem is solved using the program named: CLIPPER.5 and ACP.

Keywords: free surface flow, heterogeneous sand, moving bottom bed, friction coefficient, bottom roughness

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833 Critical Success Factors Influencing Construction Project Performance for Different Objectives: Procurement Phase

Authors: Samart Homthong, Wutthipong Moungnoi

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Critical success factors (CSFs) and the criteria to measure project success have received much attention over the decades and are among the most widely researched topics in the context of project management. However, although there have been extensive studies on the subject by different researchers, to date, there has been little agreement on the CSFs. The aim of this study is to identify the CSFs that influence the performance of construction projects, and determine their relative importance for different objectives across five stages in the project life cycle. A considerable literature review was conducted that resulted in the identification of 179 individual factors. These factors were then grouped into nine major categories. A questionnaire survey was used to collect data from three groups of respondents: client representatives, consultants, and contractors. Out of 164 questionnaires distributed, 93 were returned, yielding a response rate of 56.7%. Using the mean score, relative importance index, and weighted average method, the top 10 critical factors for each category were identified. The agreement of survey respondents on those categorised factors were analysed using Spearman’s rank correlation. A one-way analysis of variance was then performed to determine whether the mean scores among the various groups of respondents were statistically significant. The findings indicate the most CSFs in each category in procurement phase are: proper procurement programming of materials (time), stability in the price of materials (cost), and determining quality in the construction (quality). They are then followed by safety equipment acquisition and maintenance (health and safety), budgeting allowed in a contractual arrangement for implementing environmental management activities (environment), completeness of drawing documents (productivity), accurate measurement and pricing of bill of quantities (risk management), adequate communication among the project team (human resource), and adequate cost control measures (client satisfaction). An understanding of CSFs would help all interested parties in the construction industry to improve project performance. Furthermore, the results of this study would help construction professionals and practitioners take proactive measures for effective project management.

Keywords: critical success factors, procurement phase, project life cycle, project performance

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832 Effect of Electromagnetic Fields at 27 GHz on Sperm Quality of Mytilus galloprovincialis

Authors: Carmen Sica, Elena M. Scalisi, Sara Ignoto, Ludovica Palmeri, Martina Contino, Greta Ferruggia, Antonio Salvaggio, Santi C. Pavone, Gino Sorbello, Loreto Di Donato, Roberta Pecoraro, Maria V. Brundo

Abstract:

Recently, a rise in the use of wireless internet technologies such as Wi-Fi and 5G routers/modems have been demonstrated. These devices emit a considerable amount of electromagnetic radiation (EMR), which could interact with the male reproductive system either by thermal or non-thermal mechanisms. The aim of this study was to investigate the direct in vitro influence of 5G radiation on sperm quality in Mytilus galloprovincialis, considered an excellent model for reproduction studies. The experiments at 27 GHz were conducted by using a no commercial high gain pyramidal horn antenna. To evaluate the specific absorption rate (SAR), a numerical simulation has been performed. The resulting incident power density was significantly lower than the power density limit of 10 mW/cm2 set by the international guidelines as a limit for nonthermal effects above 6 GHz. However, regarding temperature measurements of the aqueous sample, it has been verified an increase of 0.2°C, compared to the control samples. This very low-temperature increase couldn’t interfere with experiments. For experiments, sperm samples taken from sexually mature males of Mytilus galloprovincialis were placed in artificial seawater, salinity 30 + 1% and pH 8.3 filtered with a 0.2 m filter. After evaluating the number and quality of spermatozoa, sperm cells were exposed to electromagnetic fields a 27GHz. The effect of exposure on sperm motility and quality was evaluated after 10, 20, 30 and 40 minutes with a light microscope and also using the Eosin test to verify the vitality of the gametes. All the samples were performed in triplicate and statistical analysis was carried out using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with Turkey test for multiple comparations of means to determine differences of sperm motility. A significant decrease (30%) in sperm motility was observed after 10 minutes of exposure and after 30 minutes, all sperms were immobile and not vital. Due to little literature data about this topic, these results could be useful for further studies concerning a great diffusion of these new technologies.

Keywords: mussel, spermatozoa, sperm motility, millimeter waves

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831 Testing the Effectiveness of a Peer Facilitated Body Project Interventions Among Body Dissatisfied Young Women in China: A Randomized Control Trial

Authors: Todd Jackson

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In this randomized control trial, we tested the effectiveness of a peer-facilitated version of the Body Project (BP) intervention among body-dissatisfied young women in China. Participants were randomly assigned to a peer-facilitator BP condition (N = 94) versus an educational video minimal intervention control condition (N = 89). Questionnaire measures of two primary outcomes (i.e., disordered eating and body dissatisfaction) and six secondary outcomes (thin-ideal internalization, pressure to be thin, negative affect, body surveillance, body shame, body appreciation and interest in cosmetic surgery) were administered at a pre-treatment baseline, a post-treatment assessment, and at a 12-month follow-up. A series of 2 (Group) x 2 (Time) analyses of variance indicated women in the peer-facilitated BP condition reported significant improvements in primary outcome measures of disordered eating and body dissatisfaction compared to women in the educational video control condition following treatment and at the 12-month follow-up. Furthermore, women in the peer-facilitated BP condition reported significant improvements in measures of body surveillance, body shame and body appreciation) compared to educational video controls that extended to the 12-month follow-up. Finally, although women in the peer-facilitated BP condition showed significant post-treatment improvements in thin-ideal internalization, negative affect, perceived pressure to be thin, and interest in cosmetic surgery compared to video controls, these differences were no longer statistically significant at the 12-month follow-up. In conclusion, findings supported the overall effectiveness of a peer-facilitated group version of the BP as an intervention for reducing disordered eating and several associated risk factors among at-risk young women in China.

Keywords: body project, disordered eating, body dissatisfaction, risk factors, prevention, China

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830 Investigating the Viability of Small-Scale Rapid Alloy Prototyping of Interstitial Free Steels

Authors: Talal S. Abdullah, Shahin Mehraban, Geraint Lodwig, Nicholas P. Lavery

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The defining property of Interstitial Free (IF) steels is formability, comprehensively measured using the Lankford coefficient (r-value) on uniaxial tensile test data. The contributing factors supporting this feature are grain size, orientation, and elemental additions. The processes that effectively modulate these factors are the casting procedure, hot rolling, and heat treatment. An existing methodology is well-practised in the steel Industry; however, large-scale production and experimentation consume significant proportions of time, money, and material. Introducing small-scale rapid alloy prototyping (RAP) as an alternative process would considerably reduce the drawbacks relative to standard practices. The aim is to finetune the existing fundamental procedures implemented in the industrial plant to adapt to the RAP route. IF material is remelted in the 80-gram coil induction melting (CIM) glovebox. To birth small grains, maximum deformation must be induced onto the cast material during the hot rolling process. The rolled strip must then satisfy the polycrystalline behaviour of the bulk material by displaying a resemblance in microstructure, hardness, and formability to that of the literature and actual plant steel. A successful outcome of this work is that small-scale RAP can achieve target compositions with similar microstructures and statistically consistent mechanical properties which complements and accelerates the development of novel steel grades.

Keywords: rapid alloy prototyping, plastic anisotropy, interstitial free, miniaturised tensile testing, formability

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829 Phytochemicals Quatification, Trace Metal Accumulation Pattern and Contamination Risk Assessment of Different Variety of Tomatoes Cultivated on Municipal Waste Sludge Treated Soil

Authors: Mathodzi Nditsheni, Olawole Emmanuel Aina, Joshua Oluwole Olowoyo

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The ever-increasing world population is putting extreme pressure on the already limited agricultural resources for food production. Different soil enhancers were introduced by famers to meet the need of the ever-increasing population demand for food. One of the soil enhancers is the municipal waste sludge. This research investigated the differences in the concentrations of trace metals and levels of phytochemicals in four different tomato varieties cultivated on soil treated with municipal waste sludge in Pretoria, South Africa. Fruits were harvested at maturity and analyzed for trace metals and phytochemicals contents using Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES) and a High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) respectively. A one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to determine the differences in the concentrations of trace metals and phytochemical from different tomato varieties were significant. From the study, Rodade tomato bioaccumulated the highest concentrations of Mn, Cr, Cu and Ni, Roma bioaccumulated the highest concentrations of, Cd, Fe and Pb while Heinz bioaccumulated the highest concentrations of As and Zn. Cherry tomato on the other hand, recorded the lowest concentrations for most metals, Cd, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn. The results of the study further showed that phenolic and flavonoids content were higher in the Solanum lycopersicum fruit grown in soils treated with municipal waste sludge. The study also showed that there was an inverse relationship between the levels of trace metals and phytochemicals. The calculated contamination factor values of trace metals like Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn were above the safe value of 1 which indicated that the tomato fruits may be unsafe for human consumption. However, the contamination factor values for the remaining trace metals were well below the safe value of 1. From the results obtained either for the control group or the treatment, the tomato varieties used in the study, bioaccumulated the toxic trace metals in their fruits and some of the values obtained were higher than the acceptable limit, which may then imply that the varieties of tomato used in this study bio accumulated the toxic trace metals from the soil, hence care should be taken when these tomato varieties are either cultivated or harvested from polluted areas

Keywords: trace metals, flavonoids, phenolics, waste sludge, tomato, contamination factors

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828 The Effects of North Sea Caspian Pattern Index on the Temperature and Precipitation Regime in the Aegean Region of Turkey

Authors: Cenk Sezen, Turgay Partal

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North Sea Caspian Pattern Index (NCP) refers to an atmospheric teleconnection between the North Sea and North Caspian at the 500 hPa geopotential height level. The aim of this study is to search for effects of NCP on annual and seasonal mean temperature and also annual and seasonal precipitation totals in the Aegean region of Turkey. The study contains the data that consist of 46 years obtained from nine meteorological stations. To determine the relationship between NCP and the climatic parameters, firstly the Pearson correlation coefficient method was utilized. According to the results of the analysis, most of the stations in the region have a high negative correlation NCPI in all seasons, especially in the winter season in terms of annual and seasonal mean temperature (statistically at significant at the 90% level). Besides, high negative correlation values between NCPI and precipitation totals are observed during the winter season at the most of stations. Furthermore, the NCPI values were divided into two group as NCPI(-) and NCPI(+), and then mean temperature and precipitation total values, which are grouped according to the NCP(-) and NCP(+) phases, were determined as annual and seasonal. During the NCPI(-), higher mean temperature values are observed in all of seasons, particularly in the winter season compared to the mean temperature values under effect of NCP(+). Similarly, during the NCPI(-) in winter season precipitation total values have higher than the precipitation total values under the effect of NCP(+); however, in other seasons there no substantial changes were observed between the precipitation total values. As a result of this study, significant proof is obtained with regards to the influences of NCP on the temperature and precipitation regime in the Aegean region of Turkey.

Keywords: Aegean region, NCPI, precipitation, temperature

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827 Administrative Determinants of Students' Sports Participation in Private and Public Secondary Schools in Kwara State, Nigeria

Authors: Danjuma Moudu Momoh

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Participation in sports is of immense benefit to the soundness of individual mental and social wellness, particularly among youngsters. The 1980’s and 1990’s compared to 2000’s witnessed great involvement of youngsters in school games arising from the high administrative supports attached to sports. Previous studies in an attempt to increase youngster’s participation in sports had focused more on other factors rather than on administrative factors. This study, therefore, investigated the importance of administrative factors (availability of facilities, availability of equipment, funding, scheduling of sports programme and administrative style of school principals) on students’ sports participation in private and public secondary schools in Kwara State, Nigeria. Descriptive survey research design using validated and structured questionnaire, was adopted. Stratified random sampling technique was used to pick the students both male and female. A total of two thousand five hundred and sixty participants were involved in the study. A reliable coefficient of r=0.82 was obtained for the instruments using Cronbach Alpha. Data were analyzed using multiple regressions to test the hypotheses at 00.5 significant levels. At the end of the study, it was discovered that the relative contributions of administrative factors among the students were: availability of facilities (β=0.314), availability of equipment (β=0.444), funding (β=0.301), scheduling of sports programme (β=0.447), made relative contributions to the dependent variable, administrative style of school principal (β=0.077) did not make significant but minimal contribution to the student’s sports participation.

Keywords: administrative determinants, secondary school students, physical activity, sports participation

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826 The Impact of Socioeconomic Status on Citizens’ Perceptions of Social Justice in China

Authors: Yan Liu

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The Gini coefficient indicates that the inequality of income distribution is rising in China. How individuals viewing the equality of current society is an important predicator of social turbulence. Perceptions of social justice may vary according to the social stratification. People usually use socioeconomic status to identify divisions between social stratifications. The objective of this study is to explore the potential influence of socioeconomic status on citizens’ perceptions of social justice in China. Socioeconomic status (SES) is usually reflected by either an SES indicator or a composite of three core dimensions: education, income and occupation. With data collected in the 2010 Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS), this study uses OLS regression analyses to examine the relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and citizens’ perceptions of social justice. This study finds that most Chinese citizens believe that the current society is fair or more than fair. Socioeconomic status (SES) has a positive impact on citizens’ perceptions of social justice, which means individuals with higher indicator of socioeconomic status prefer to believe current society is fair. However, the three core dimensions which are used to measure socioeconomic status (SES) have different influences on perceptions of social justice: First, income helps enhance citizens’ sense of social justice. Second, education weakens citizens’ sense of social justice. Third, compared to the middle occupational status, people of both higher occupational status and lower occupational status have higher levels of perceptions of social justice. Though education creates a negative influence on perceptions of social justice, its effect is much weaker than that of income, which indicates income is a determining factor for enhancing people’s perceptions of social justice in China’s market society. Policy implications are discussed.

Keywords: education, income, occupation, perceptions of social justice, social stratification, socioeconomic status

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825 Visco - Plastic Transition and Transfer of Plastic Material with SGF in case of Linear Dry Friction Contact on Steel Surfaces

Authors: Lucian Capitanu, Virgil Florescu

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Often for the laboratory studies, modeling of specific tribological processes raises special problems. One such problem is the modeling of some temperatures and extremely high contact pressures, allowing modeling of temperatures and pressures at which the injection or extrusion processing of thermoplastic materials takes place. Tribological problems occur mainly in thermoplastics materials reinforced with glass fibers. They produce an advanced wear to the barrels and screws of processing machines, in short time. Obtaining temperatures around 210 °C and higher, as well as pressures around 100 MPa is very difficult in the laboratory. This paper reports a simple and convenient solution to get these conditions, using friction sliding couples with linear contact, cylindrical liner plastic filled with glass fibers on plate steel samples, polished and super-finished. C120 steel, which is a steel for moulds and Rp3 steel, high speed steel for tools, were used. Obtaining the pressure was achieved by continuous request of the liner in rotational movement up to its elasticity limits, when the dry friction coefficient reaches or exceeds the hardness value of 0.5 HB. By dissipation of the power lost by friction on flat steel sample, are reached contact temperatures at the metal surface that reach and exceed 230 °C, being placed in the range temperature values of the injection. Contact pressures (in load and materials conditions used) ranging from 16.3-36.4 MPa were obtained depending on the plastic material used and the glass fibers content.

Keywords: plastics with glass fibers, dry friction, linear contact, contact temperature, contact pressure, experimental simulation

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824 Optimum Performance of the Gas Turbine Power Plant Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System and Statistical Analysis

Authors: Thamir K. Ibrahim, M. M. Rahman, Marwah Noori Mohammed

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This study deals with modeling and performance enhancements of a gas-turbine combined cycle power plant. A clean and safe energy is the greatest challenges to meet the requirements of the green environment. These requirements have given way the long-time governing authority of steam turbine (ST) in the world power generation, and the gas turbine (GT) will replace it. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the characteristics of the GT system and optimize its operating strategy by developing a simulation system. The integrated model and simulation code for exploiting the performance of gas turbine power plant are developed utilizing MATLAB code. The performance code for heavy-duty GT and CCGT power plants are validated with the real power plant of Baiji GT and MARAFIQ CCGT plants the results have been satisfactory. A new technology of correlation was considered for all types of simulation data; whose coefficient of determination (R2) was calculated as 0.9825. Some of the latest launched correlations were checked on the Baiji GT plant and apply error analysis. The GT performance was judged by particular parameters opted from the simulation model and also utilized Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy System (ANFIS) an advanced new optimization technology. The best thermal efficiency and power output attained were about 56% and 345MW respectively. Thus, the operation conditions and ambient temperature are strongly influenced on the overall performance of the GT. The optimum efficiency and power are found at higher turbine inlet temperatures. It can be comprehended that the developed models are powerful tools for estimating the overall performance of the GT plants.

Keywords: gas turbine, optimization, ANFIS, performance, operating conditions

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823 Zinc Sorption by Six Agricultural Soils Amended with Municipal Biosolids

Authors: Antoine Karam, Lotfi Khiari, Bruno Breton, Alfred Jaouich

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Anthropogenic sources of zinc (Zn), including industrial emissions and effluents, Zn–rich fertilizer materials and pesticides containing Zn, can contribute to increasing the concentration of soluble Zn at levels toxic to plants in acid sandy soils. The application of municipal sewage sludge or biosolids (MBS) which contain metal immobilizing agents on coarse-textured soils could improve the metal sorption capacity of the low-CEC soils. The purpose of this experiment was to evaluate the sorption of Zn in surface samples (0-15 cm) of six Quebec (Canada) soils amended with MBS (pH 6.9) from Val d’Or (Quebec, Canada). Soil samples amended with increasing amounts (0 to 20%) of MBS were equilibrated with various amounts of Zn as ZnCl2 in 0.01 M CaCl2 for 48 hours at room temperature. Sorbed Zn was calculated from the difference between the initial and final Zn concentration in solution. Zn sorption data conformed to the linear form of Freundlich equation. The amount of sorbed Zn increased considerably with increasing MBS rate. Analysis of variance revealed a highly significant effect (p ≤ 0.001) of soil texture and MBS rate on the amount of sorbed Zn. The average values of the Zn-sorption capacity of MBS-amended coarse-textured soils were lower than those of MBS-amended fine textured soils. The two sandy soils (86-99% sand) amended with MBS retained 2- to 5-fold Zn than those without MBS (control). Significant Pearson correlation coefficients between the Zn sorption isotherm parameter, i.e. the Freundlich sorption isotherm (KF), and commonly measured physical and chemical entities were obtained. Among all the soil properties measured, soil pH gave the best significant correlation coefficients (p ≤ 0.001) for soils receiving 0, 5 and 10% MBS. Furthermore, KF values were positively correlated with soil clay content, exchangeable basic cations (Ca, Mg or K), CEC and clay content to CEC ratio. From these results, it can be concluded that (i) municipal biosolids provide sorption sites that have a strong affinity for Zn, (ii) both soil texture, especially clay content, and soil pH are the main factors controlling anthropogenic Zn sorption in the municipal biosolids-amended soils, and (iii) the effect of municipal biosolids on Zn sorption will be more pronounced for a sandy soil than for a clay soil.

Keywords: metal, recycling, sewage sludge, trace element

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822 Testing the Simplification Hypothesis in Constrained Language Use: An Entropy-Based Approach

Authors: Jiaxin Chen

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Translations have been labeled as more simplified than non-translations, featuring less diversified and more frequent lexical items and simpler syntactic structures. Such simplified linguistic features have been identified in other bilingualism-influenced language varieties, including non-native and learner language use. Therefore, it has been proposed that translation could be studied within a broader framework of constrained language, and simplification is one of the universal features shared by constrained language varieties due to similar cognitive-physiological and social-interactive constraints. Yet contradicting findings have also been presented. To address this issue, this study intends to adopt Shannon’s entropy-based measures to quantify complexity in language use. Entropy measures the level of uncertainty or unpredictability in message content, and it has been adapted in linguistic studies to quantify linguistic variance, including morphological diversity and lexical richness. In this study, the complexity of lexical and syntactic choices will be captured by word-form entropy and pos-form entropy, and a comparison will be made between constrained and non-constrained language use to test the simplification hypothesis. The entropy-based method is employed because it captures both the frequency of linguistic choices and their evenness of distribution, which are unavailable when using traditional indices. Another advantage of the entropy-based measure is that it is reasonably stable across languages and thus allows for a reliable comparison among studies on different language pairs. In terms of the data for the present study, one established (CLOB) and two self-compiled corpora will be used to represent native written English and two constrained varieties (L2 written English and translated English), respectively. Each corpus consists of around 200,000 tokens. Genre (press) and text length (around 2,000 words per text) are comparable across corpora. More specifically, word-form entropy and pos-form entropy will be calculated as indicators of lexical and syntactical complexity, and ANOVA tests will be conducted to explore if there is any corpora effect. It is hypothesized that both L2 written English and translated English have lower entropy compared to non-constrained written English. The similarities and divergences between the two constrained varieties may provide indications of the constraints shared by and peculiar to each variety.

Keywords: constrained language use, entropy-based measures, lexical simplification, syntactical simplification

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821 Consumer Value and Purchase Behaviour: The Mediating Role of Consumers' Expectations of Corporate Social Responsibility in Durban, South Africa

Authors: Abosede Ijabadeniyi, Jeevarathnam P. Govender

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Prevailing strategic Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) research is predominantly centred around the predictive implications of the construct on behavioural outcomes. This phenomenon limits the depth of our understanding of the trajectory of strategic CSR. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the mediating effects of CSR expectations on the relationship between consumer value and purchase behaviour by identifying the implications of the multidimensionality of CSR (economic, legal, ethical and philanthropic) on the latter. Drawing from the stakeholder theory and its interplay with the prevalence of Ubuntu values; the underlying force which governs the values of South African camaraderie, we hypothesise that the multidimensionality of CSR expectations has positive mediating effects in the relationship between consumer value and purchase behaviour. Partial Least Square (PLS) path modelling was employed, using six measures of the average path coefficient (APC) to test the relationship between the constructs. Results from a sample of mall shoppers of (n=411), based on a survey conducted across five major malls in Durban, South Africa, indicate that only the legal dimension of CSR serves as a mediating factor in the relationship among the constructs. South Africa’s unique history of segregation, leading to the proliferation of spontaneous organisational approach to CSR and higher expectations of organisational legitimacy are identified as antecedents of consumers’ reliance on the law (legal CSR) to redress the ills of the past, sustainable development, and socially responsible behaviour. The paper also highlights theoretical and managerial implications for future research.

Keywords: consumer value, corporate marketing, corporate social responsibility, purchase behaviour, Ubuntu

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820 Contribution of Upper Body Kinematics on Tennis Serve Performance

Authors: Ikram Hussain, Fuzail Ahmad, Tawseef Ahmad Bhat

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Tennis serve is characterized as one of the most prominent techniques pertaining to the success of winning a point. The study was aimed to explore the contributions of the upper body kinematics on the tennis performance during Davis Cup (Oceania Group). Four Indian International tennis players who participated in the Davis Cup held at Indore, India were inducted as the subjects for this study, with mean age 27 ± 4.79 Years, mean weight 186 ± 6.03 cm, mean weight 81.25 ± 7.41kg, respectively. The tennis serve was bifurcated into three phases viz, preparatory phase, force generation phase and follow through phase. The kinematic data for the study was recorded through the high speed canon camcorder having a shuttle speed of 1/2000, at a frame rate of 50 Hz. The data was analysed with the motion analysis software. The descriptive statistics and F-test was employed through SPSS version 17.0 for the determination of the undertaken kinematic parameters of the study, and was computed at a 0.05 level of significance with 46 degrees of freedom. Mean, standard deviation and correlation coefficient also employed to find out the relationship among the upper body kinematic parameter and performance. In the preparatory phase, the analysis revealed that no significant difference exists among the kinematic parameters of the players on the performance. However, in force generation phase, wrist velocity (r= 0.47), torso velocity (r= -0.53), racket velocity r= 0.60), and in follow through phase, torso acceleration r= 0.43), elbow angle (r= -0.48) play a significant role on the performance of the tennis serve. Therefore, players should ponder upon the velocities of the above segments at the time of preparation for the competitions.

Keywords: Davis Cup, kinematics, motion analysis, tennis serve

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819 Optimization of a High-Growth Investment Portfolio for the South African Market Using Predictive Analytics

Authors: Mia Françoise

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This report aims to develop a strategy for assisting short-term investors to benefit from the current economic climate in South Africa by utilizing technical analysis techniques and predictive analytics. As part of this research, value investing and technical analysis principles will be combined to maximize returns for South African investors while optimizing volatility. As an emerging market, South Africa offers many opportunities for high growth in sectors where other developed countries cannot grow at the same rate. Investing in South African companies with significant growth potential can be extremely rewarding. Although the risk involved is more significant in countries with less developed markets and infrastructure, there is more room for growth in these countries. According to recent research, the offshore market is expected to outperform the local market over the long term; however, short-term investments in the local market will likely be more profitable, as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is predicted to outperform the S&P500 over the short term. The instabilities in the economy contribute to increased market volatility, which can benefit investors if appropriately utilized. Price prediction and portfolio optimization comprise the two primary components of this methodology. As part of this process, statistics and other predictive modeling techniques will be used to predict the future performance of stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Following predictive data analysis, Modern Portfolio Theory, based on Markowitz's Mean-Variance Theorem, will be applied to optimize the allocation of assets within an investment portfolio. By combining different assets within an investment portfolio, this optimization method produces a portfolio with an optimal ratio of expected risk to expected return. This methodology aims to provide a short-term investment with a stock portfolio that offers the best risk-to-return profile for stocks listed on the JSE by combining price prediction and portfolio optimization.

Keywords: financial stocks, optimized asset allocation, prediction modelling, South Africa

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818 Nonparametric Truncated Spline Regression Model on the Data of Human Development Index in Indonesia

Authors: Kornelius Ronald Demu, Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih

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Human Development Index (HDI) is a standard measurement for a country's human development. Several factors may have influenced it, such as life expectancy, gross domestic product (GDP) based on the province's annual expenditure, the number of poor people, and the percentage of an illiterate people. The scatter plot between HDI and the influenced factors show that the plot does not follow a specific pattern or form. Therefore, the HDI's data in Indonesia can be applied with a nonparametric regression model. The estimation of the regression curve in the nonparametric regression model is flexible because it follows the shape of the data pattern. One of the nonparametric regression's method is a truncated spline. Truncated spline regression is one of the nonparametric approach, which is a modification of the segmented polynomial functions. The estimator of a truncated spline regression model was affected by the selection of the optimal knots point. Knot points is a focus point of spline truncated functions. The optimal knots point was determined by the minimum value of generalized cross validation (GCV). In this article were applied the data of Human Development Index with a truncated spline nonparametric regression model. The results of this research were obtained the best-truncated spline regression model to the HDI's data in Indonesia with the combination of optimal knots point 5-5-5-4. Life expectancy and the percentage of an illiterate people were the significant factors depend to the HDI in Indonesia. The coefficient of determination is 94.54%. This means the regression model is good enough to applied on the data of HDI in Indonesia.

Keywords: generalized cross validation (GCV), Human Development Index (HDI), knots point, nonparametric regression, truncated spline

Procedia PDF Downloads 328