Search results for: wildfire modeling

Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Khaled M. Alqahtani

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Copy number alterations (CNA) are variations in the structure of the genome, where certain regions deviate from the typical two chromosomal copies. These alterations are pivotal in understanding tumor progression and are indicative of patients' survival outcomes. However, effectively modeling patients' survival based on their genomic CNA profiles while identifying relevant genomic regions remains a statistical challenge. Various methods, such as the Cox proportional hazard (PH) model with ridge, lasso, or elastic net penalties, have been proposed but often overlook the inherent dependencies between genomic regions, leading to results that are hard to interpret. In this study, we enhance the elastic net penalty by incorporating an additional penalty that accounts for these dependencies. This approach yields smooth parameter estimates and facilitates variable selection, resulting in a sparse solution. Our findings demonstrate that this method outperforms other models in predicting survival outcomes, as evidenced by our simulation study. Moreover, it allows for a more meaningful interpretation of genomic regions associated with patients' survival. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach using both real data from a lung cancer cohort and simulated datasets.

Keywords: copy number alterations, cox proportional hazard, lung cancer, regression, sparse solution

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Hotlan Siagian, Hatane Semuel, Wilma Laura Sahetapy

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This study aims at examining the effect of market orientation on marketing performance through product adaptation strategy. The population of the research is domestic leather craft companies located in five regions, the center of the leather craft industry in Indonesia, i.e., Central Java, East Java, South Sulawesi, Bali, and West Kalimantan. The respondent consists of a manager level from each company. Data collection used a questionnaire designed with five-item Likert scale. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with SmartPLS software version 3.0 to examine the hypotheses. The result of the study shows that all hypotheses are supported. Market orientation affects marketing performance. Market orientation affects product adaptation strategy. Product adaptation strategy influences the marketing performance. The research also has revealed the main finding that product adaptation strategy contributes to a mediating role in the market orientation strategy and marketing performance relationship. The leather craft companies in Indonesia, therefore, may refer to this result in improving their marketing performance.

Keywords: leather craft industry, market orientation, marketing performance, product adaptation strategy

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: Can Liu, Graham Markowitz, John Balay, Ben Pratt

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Baseline or natural hydrology is commonly employed for hydrologic modeling and quantification of hydrologic alteration due to manmade activities. It can inform planning and policy related efforts for various state and federal water resource agencies to restore natural streamflow flow regimes. A common challenge faced by hydrologists is how to replicate unaltered streamflow conditions, particularly in large watershed settings prone to development and regulation. Three different methods were employed to estimate baseline streamflow conditions for 6 major subbasins the Susquehanna River Basin; those being: 1) incorporation of consumptive water use and reservoir operations back into regulated gaged records; 2) using a map correlation method and flow duration (exceedance probability) regression equations; 3) extending the pre-regulation streamflow records based on the relationship between concurrent streamflows at unregulated and regulated gage locations. Parallel analyses were perform among the three methods and limitations associated with each are presented. Results from these analyses indicate that generating baseline streamflow records at large-scale watersheds remain challenging, even with long-term continuous stream gage records available.

Keywords: baseline hydrology, streamflow gage, subbasin, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 325

Authors: Jason West

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Low profitability in agriculture production along with increasing scrutiny over environmental effects is limiting food production at scale. In contrast, the mining sector offers access to resources including energy, water, transport and chemicals for food production at low marginal cost. Scalable agricultural production can benefit from the nexus of resources (water, energy, transport) offered by mining activity in remote locations. A decision support bioeconomic model for controlled environment vertical farms was used. Four submodels were used: crop structure, nutrient requirements, resource-crop integration, and economic. They escalate to a macro mathematical model. A demonstrable dynamic systems framework is needed to prove productive outcomes are feasible. We demonstrate a generalized bioeconomic macro model for controlled environment production systems in minesites using systems dynamics modeling methodology. Despite the complexity of bioeconomic modelling of resource-agricultural dynamic processes and interactions, the economic potential greater than general economic models would assume. Scalability of production as an input becomes a key success feature.

Keywords: crop production systems, mathematical model, mining, agriculture, dynamic systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

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Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

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Authors: Saurabh Kumar

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In the fiercely competitive landscape of e-commerce, understanding and mitigating customer churn has become paramount for sustainable business growth. This paper presents a thorough investigation into the application of machine learning techniques for churn prediction in e-commerce, aiming to provide actionable insights for businesses seeking to enhance customer retention strategies. We conduct a comparative study of various machine learning algorithms, including traditional statistical methods and ensemble techniques, leveraging a rich dataset sourced from Kaggle. Through rigorous evaluation, we assess the predictive performance, interpretability, and scalability of each method, elucidating their respective strengths and limitations in capturing the intricate dynamics of customer churn. We identified the XGBoost classifier to be the best performing. Our findings not only offer practical guidelines for selecting suitable modeling approaches but also contribute to the broader understanding of customer behavior in the e-commerce domain. Ultimately, this research equips businesses with the knowledge and tools necessary to proactively identify and address churn, thereby fostering long-term customer relationships and sustaining competitive advantage.

Keywords: customer churn, e-commerce, machine learning techniques, predictive performance, sustainable business growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 33

Authors: Rodrigo T. Sepulveda-Hirose, Ana B. Carrera-Aguilar, Francisco Andree Ramirez-Casas, Alondra Orozco-Gomez, Miguel Angel Sanchez-Caro, Carlos Herrera-Ventosa

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High concentrations of particulate matter in the atmosphere pose a threat to human health, especially over areas with high concentrations of population; however, field air pollution monitoring is expensive and time-consuming. In order to achieve reduced costs and global coverage of the whole urban area, remote sensing can be used. This study evaluates PM2.5 concentrations, over the Mexico City´s metropolitan area, are estimated using atmospheric reflectance from LANDSAT 8, satellite imagery and historical PM2.5 measurements of the Automatic Environmental Monitoring Network of Mexico City (RAMA). Through the processing of the available satellite images, a preliminary model was generated to evaluate the optimal bands for the generation of the final model for Mexico City. Work on the final model continues with the results of the preliminary model. It was found that infrared bands have helped to model in other cities, but the effectiveness that these bands could provide for the geographic and climatic conditions of Mexico City is still being evaluated.

Keywords: air pollution modeling, Landsat 8, PM2.5, remote sensing

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Authors: Nenashev Yaroslav, Russkin Oleg

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The mixing process is one of the most important and critical stages in many industrial sectors, such as chemistry, pharmaceuticals, and the food industry. When designing equipment with mixing impellers, technology developers often encounter working environments with complex physical properties and rheology. In such cases, the use of computational fluid dynamics tools is an excellent solution to mitigate risks and ensure the stable operation of the equipment. The research focuses on one of the designed reactors with mixing impellers intended for polymer synthesis. The study describes an approach to modeling reactors of similar configurations, taking into account the complex properties of the mixed liquids using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method. To achieve this goal, a complex 3D model was created, accurately replicating the functionality of chemical equipment. The model allows for the assessment of the hydrodynamic behavior of the reaction mixture inside the reactor, consideration of heat release due to the reaction, and the heat exchange between the reaction mixture and the cooling medium. The results indicate that the choice of the type and size of the mixing device significantly affects the efficiency of the mixing process inside the chemical reactor.

Keywords: CFD, mixing, blending, chemical reactor, non-Newton liquids, polymers

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Ebrahim Zamani Beydokhti, Hashem Shariatmadar

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This paper presents an experimental and analytical investigation on the behavior of retrofitted beam-column joints subjected to reversed cyclic loading. The experimental program comprises 8 external beam–column joint connection subassemblages tested in 2 phases; one was the damaging phase and second was the repairing phase. The beam-column joints were no seismically designed, i.e. the joint, beam and column critical zones had no special transverse stirrups. The joins were tested under cyclic loading in previous research. The experiment had two phases named damage phase and retrofit phase. Then the experimental results compared with analytical results achieved from modeling in OpenSees software. The presence of lateral slab and the axial load amount were analytically investigated. The results showed that increasing the axial load and presence of lateral slab increased the joint capacity. The presence of lateral slab increased the dissipated energy, while the axial load had no significant effect on it.

Keywords: concrete beam-column joints, CFRP sheets, lateral slab, axial load

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Authors: M. M. Bagheri, G. Doudak, M. Gong

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The in-plane rigidity of light frame diaphragms has been investigated by researchers due to the importance of this subsystem regarding lateral force distribution between the lateral force resisting system (LFRS). Where research has lacked is in evaluating the impact of out-of-plane raigidity of the diaphragm on the deflection of shear walls. This study aims at investigating the effect of the diaphragm on the behavior of wood light-frame shear walls, in particular its out-of-plane rigidity was simulated by modeling the floors as beam. The out of plane stiffness of the diaphragm was investigated for idealized (infinitely stiff or flexible) as well as “realistic”. The results showed reductions in the shear wall deflection in the magnitude of approximately 80% considering the out of plane rigidity of the diaphragm. It was also concluded that considering conservative estimates of out-of-plane stiffness might lead to a very significant reduction in deflection and that assuming the floor diaphragm to be infinitely rigid out of plan seems to be reasonable. For diaphragms supported on multiple panels, further reduction in the deflection was observed. More work, particularly at the experimental level, is needed to verify the finding obtained in the numerical investigation related to the effect of out of plane diaphragm stiffness.

Keywords: finite element analysis, lateral deflection, out-of-plane stiffness of the diaphragm, wood light-frame shear wall

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Authors: Omar Al Denali, Abdelaziz Badi

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The ASTM A516 Grade 70 steel is a suitable material used for the fabrication of boiler pressure vessels working in moderate and lower temperature services, and it has good weldability and excellent notch toughness. The post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) or stress-relieving heat treatment has significant effects on avoiding the martensite transformation and resulting in high hardness, which can lead to cracking in the heat-affected zone (HAZ). An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was implemented to predict the material tensile strength of post-weld heat treatment (PWHT) experiments. The ANFIS models presented excellent predictions, and the comparison was carried out based on the mean absolute percentage error between the predicted values and the experimental values. The ANFIS model gave a Mean Absolute Percentage Error of 0.556 %, which confirms the high accuracy of the model.

Keywords: prediction, post-weld heat treatment, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, mean absolute percentage error

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: V. Nagaraju, G. Murali, Nagarjunavarma Ganna, Atluri Pavan Kalyan, N. Sree Sai Ganesh, V. S. V. S. Badrinath

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The present work focuses on the development of a mathematical model for the yield obtained by single slope solar still incorporated with cylindrical pipes filled with sand. The mathematical results obtained were validated with the experimental results for the 3 cm of water level at the basin. The mathematical model and results obtained with the experimental investigation are within 11% of deviation. The theoretical model to predict the yield obtained due to the capillary effect was proposed first. And then, to predict the total yield obtained, the thermal effect model was integrated with the capillary effect model. With the obtained results, it is understood that the yield obtained is more in the case of solar stills with sand-filled cylindrical pipes when compared to solar stills without sand-filled cylindrical pipes. And later model was used for predicting yield for 1 cm and 2 cm of water levels at the basin. And it is observed that the maximum yield was obtained for a 1 cm water level at the basin. It means solar still produces better yield with the lower depth of water level at the basin; this may be because of the availability of more space in the sand for evaporation.

Keywords: solar still, cylindrical pipes, still efficiency, mathematical modeling, capillary effect model, yield, solar desalination

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: V. Diaz, B. Pardo , D. Villegas

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In premature births most babies have complications at birth, these complications can be reduced, if an atmosphere of relaxation is provided and is also similar to intrauterine life, for this, there are programs where their mothers lull and sway them; however, the conditions in which they do so and the way in they do it may not be the indicated. Here we describe an investigation based on the biomimics of the kinematics of human fetal movement, which consists of determining the movements that the fetus experiences and the deformations of the components that surround the fetus during a gentle walk at week 32 of the gestation stage. This research is based on a 3D model that has the anatomical structure of the pelvis, fetus, muscles, uterus and its most important supporting elements (ligaments). Normal load conditions are applied to this model according to the stage of gestation and the kinematics of a gentle walk of a pregnant mother, which focuses on the pelvic bone, this allows to receive a response from the other elements of the model. To accomplish this modeling and subsequent simulation Solidworks software was used. From this analysis, the curves that describe the movement of the fetus at three different points were obtained. Additionally, we could found the deformation of the uterus and the ligaments that support it, showing the characteristics that these tissues can have in the face of the support of the fetus. These data can be used for the construction of artifacts that help the normal development of premature infants.

Keywords: simulation, biomimic, uterine model, fetal movement study

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Valentina Narvaez Gaitan, Laura Valentina Rodriguez Leguizamon, Ruben Dario Hernandez B.

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This work describes a physiological signal emulation system that uses electromyography (EMG) signals obtained from muscle sensors in the first instance. These signals are used to extract their characteristics to model and emulate specific arm movements. The main objective of this effort is to develop a new biomedical software system capable of generating physiological signals through the use of embedded systems by establishing the characteristics of the acquired signals. The acquisition system used was Biosignals, which contains two EMG electrodes used to acquire signals from the forearm muscles placed on the extensor and flexor muscles. Processing algorithms were implemented to classify the signals generated by the arm muscles when performing specific movements such as wrist flexion extension, palmar grip, and wrist pronation-supination. Matlab software was used to condition and preprocess the signals for subsequent classification. Subsequently, the mathematical modeling of each signal is performed to be generated by the embedded system, with a validation of the accuracy of the obtained signal using the percentage of cross-correlation, obtaining a precision of 96%. The equations are then discretized to be emulated in the embedded system, obtaining a system capable of generating physiological signals according to the characteristics of medical analysis.

Keywords: classification, electromyography, embedded system, emulation, physiological signals

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Mohammad H. Ruhipour, Mahdi Goharrokhi, Mahsa Ghasemi, Artadokht Ostadsarayi

Abstract:

In this paper, we are aiming to study the consequences of chlorine gas leak in direct chlorine gas injection compared to using bleach (sodium hypochlorite), studying the negative effects both on the environment and individuals. This study was performed in the cooling towers of a natural fractioning unit of Bandar-e-IMAM petrochemical plant. Considering that chlorine gas is highly toxic and based on the health regulation, its release into the surrounding environment can be very dangerous for people and even fatal for individuals. We studied performing quantitative studies in the worst cases of event incidence. In addition, studying alternative methods with a lower risk was also on the agenda to select the least likely possible option causing an accident. In this paper chlorine gas release consequences have been evaluated by using PHAST software. Reaching to 10 ppm of chlorine gas concentration was basis of hazardous area determination. The results show that the full chlorine gas line rupture scenario in Pasquill category F, were worst case, and many people could be harmed around cooling towers area because of chlorine gas inhalation.

Keywords: chlorine gas, consequence modeling, cooling towers, direct chlorination, risk assessment, system failure

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: T. Wejrzanowski, M. Grybczuk, E. Tymicki, K. J. Kurzydlowski

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In the present study numerical simulations silicon carbide single crystal growth process in Physical Vapor Transport reactor are addressed. Silicon Carbide is a perspective material for many applications in modern electronics. One of the main challenges for wider applications of SiC is high price of high quality mono crystals. Improvement of silicon carbide manufacturing process has a significant influence on the product price. Better understanding of crystal growth allows for optimization of the process, and it can be achieved by numerical simulations. In this work Virtual Reactor software was used to simulate the process. Predicted geometrical properties of the final product and information about phenomena occurring inside process reactor were obtained. The latter is especially valuable because reactor chamber is inaccessible during the process due to high temperature inside the reactor (over 2000˚C). Obtained data was used for improvement of the process and reactor geometry. Resultant crystal quality was also predicted basing on crystallization front shape evolution and threading dislocation paths. Obtained results were confronted with experimental data and the results are in good agreement.

Keywords: Finite Volume Method, semiconductors, Physical Vapor Transport, silicon carbide

Procedia PDF Downloads 533

Authors: D. E. Egirani, J. E. Andrews, A. R. Baker

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This study investigates sorption of Cu and Zn contained in natural mine wastewater, using mixed mineral systems in sulfidic-anoxic condition. The mine wastewater was obtained from disused mine workings at Cwmheidol in Wales, United Kingdom. These contaminants flow into water courses. These water courses include River Rheidol. In this River fishing activities exist. In an attempt to reduce Cu-Zn levels of fish intake in the watercourses, single mineral systems and 1:1 mixed mineral systems of clay and goethite were tested with the mine waste water for copper and zinc removal at variable pH. Modelling of hydroxyl complexes was carried out using phreeqc method. Reactions using batch mode technique was conducted at room temperature. There was significant differences in the behaviour of copper and zinc removal using mixed mineral systems when compared  to single mineral systems. All mixed mineral systems sorb more Cu than Zn when tested with mine wastewater.

Keywords: Cu- Zn, hydroxyl complexes, kinetics, mixed mineral systems, reactivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 500

Authors: Farah Kanani

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Blue Tide Environmental is a company focused on developing a network of used motor oil recycling facilities across the U.S. They initiated the redesign of its recycling plant in Texas, and aimed to establish an updated carbon footprint of re-refined used motor oils compared to an equivalent product derived from virgin stock that is not re-refined. The aim was to quantify emissions savings of a circular alternative to conventional end-of-life combustion of used motor oil (UMO). To do so, they mandated an ISO-compliant carbon footprint, utilizing complex models requiring geographical and temporal accuracy to accommodate the U.S. refinery market. The quantification of linear and circular flows, proxies for fuel substitution and system expansion for multi-product outputs were all critical methodological choices and were tested through sensitivity analyses. The re-refined system consisted of continuous recycling of UMO and thus, end-of-life is considered non-existent. The unique perspective to this topic will be from a life cycle i.e. holistic one and essentially demonstrate using this example of how a cradle-to-cradle model can be used to quantify a comparative carbon footprint. The intended audience is lubricant manufacturers as the consumers, motor oil industry professionals and other industry members interested in performing a cradle-to-cradle modeling.

Keywords: circularity, used motor oil, re-refining, systems expansion

Procedia PDF Downloads 36

Authors: Tam Nguyen

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Self-leadership is strongly tied to the ability to be resilient in the face of adversity. This study aims to demonstrate how a strategy based on a culturally relevant "bamboo metaphor" enables Asian students to cross cultural boundaries and to engage in online discussions to unlock their self-leadership potential. Asian students are influenced to varying degrees by the Confucian heritage culture, which educates students to respect authority, maintain harmony, and avoid public confrontations. This has a significant impact on the cultural readiness of Asian students to express their development as self-leaders. In this research project, researchers as mentors individually assist students, cultivate cognitive progress, encourage and personally ask students to join a process of mentorship program. This study analyzes and interprets the data from a large online seminar in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, where students were trained in self-leadership skills. Focus-group interviews were implemented among 90 students in the program. Findings reveal the emotional needs of Asian students and suggest a cognitive model for developing students' self-awareness, self-confidence, and self-efficacy. The research results are anticipated to be applicable to a broader Asian population with a comparable cultural environment to Vietnam.

Keywords: self-leadership, bamboo resilience, cognitive modeling, Asian culture

Procedia PDF Downloads 91

Authors: Hamed Najafi, Ghasem Nikjou

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Nowadays, there is an increasing attention to the resources scarcity issues. Because of failure in present patterns in the field of the allocation of exhaustible resources between generations and the challenges related to economic justice supply, it is supposed, to present a pattern from the Islamic perspective in this essay. By using content analysis of religious texts, we conclude that governments should remove the gap which is exists between the per capita income of the poor and their minimum consumption (necessary consumption). In order to preserve the exhaustible resources for poor people) not for all), between all generations, government should invest exhaustible resources on endless resources according to Hartwick’s criteria and should spend these benefits for poor people. But, if benefits did not cover the gap between minimum consumption and per capita income of poor levels in one generation, in this case, the government is responsible for covering this gap through the direct consumption of exhaustible resources. For an exact answer to this question, ‘how much of exhaustible resources should expense to maintain justice between generations?’ The theoretical and mathematical modeling has been used and proper function has been provided. The consumption pattern is presented for economic policy makers in Muslim countries, and non-Muslim even, it can be useful.

Keywords: exhaustible resources, Islamic justice, intergenerational justice, distribution of resources, Hartwick criteria

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Hesam Sedaghat Nejad, Navid Hosseini, Arash Nikvar Hassani

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Determination of the optimum block size with high profitability is one of the significant parameters in designation of the building stone mines. The aim of this study was to determine the optimum dimensions of building stone blocks in Delichai travertine mine of Damavand in Tehran province through combining the effective parameters proven in determination of the optimum dimensions in building stones such as the spacing of joints and gaps, extraction tools constraints with the help of modeling by Gemcom software. To this end, following simulation of the topography of the mine, the block model was prepared and then in order to use spacing joints and discontinuities as a limiting factor, the existing joints set was added to the model. Since only one almost horizontal joint set with a slope of 5 degrees was available, this factor was effective only in determining the optimum height of the block, and thus to determine the longitudinal and transverse optimum dimensions of the extracted block, the power of available loader in the mine was considered as the secondary limiting factor. According to the aforementioned factors, the optimal block size in this mine was measured as 3.4×4×7 meter.

Keywords: building stone, optimum block size, Delichay travertine mine, loader power

Procedia PDF Downloads 365

Authors: Triem T. Hoang

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Loop heat pipes (LHPs) are two-phase capillary-pumped heat transports. An appropriate working fluid is selected for the intended application temperature range. A closed-loop is evacuated to a high vacuum, back-filled partially with the working fluid, and then hermetically sealed under the fluid own pressure. Heat from a heat source conducts through the evaporator casing to vaporize liquid on the outer surface of the wick structure inside the evaporator. The generated vapor is compelled to vent out of the evaporator and into the vapor line for transport to the condenser assembly. There, heat is removed and rejected to a heat sink to condensed vapor back to liquid. The liquid exits the condenser and travels in the liquid line to return to the evaporator to complete the cycle. The circulation of fluid, and thus the heat transport in the LHP, is accomplished entirely by capillary action. The LHP contains no mechanical moving part to wear out or break down and, therefore possesses, reliability and a long life even without maintenance. In this paper, the author not only attempts to introduce the LHP technology in simplistic terms to those who are not familiar with it but also provides necessary technical information to potential users for the proper design and analysis of the LHP system.

Keywords: two-phase heat transfer, loop heat pipe, capillary pumped technology, thermal-fluid modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Nirere Martine

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Purpose –The purpose of this study aims to understand the intention of customers to adopt sustainable packaging and the impact of sustainable packaging on customers’ willingness to buy a product using sustainable packaging. Design/methodology/approach – A new research model based on the technology acceptance model (TAM) and structural equation modeling are used to examine causality and test relationship based on the data collected from 251 Rwanda samples. Findings – The findings indicated that perceived ease of use positively affects perceived usefulness. However, perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use positively affect the intention to adopt sustainable packaging. However, perceived risk and perceived cost negatively affect the intention to adopt sustainable packaging. The intention to adopt sustainable packaging positively affects the willingness to buy a product using sustainable packaging. Originality/value – Many researchers have investigated the issue of a consumers’ behavior to purchase a product. In particular, they have examined whether customers are willing to pay extra for a packaging product. There has been no study that has examined the impact of sustainable packaging on customers’ willingness to buy. The results of this study can help manufacturers form a better understanding of customers’ willingness to purchase a product using sustainable packaging.

Keywords: consumers’ behavioral, sustainable packaging, TAM, Rwanda

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Pavel Shcherban, Vlad Golovanov

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Nowadays, the depletion of hydrocarbon deposits on the land of the Kaliningrad region leads to active geological exploration and development of oil and natural gas reserves in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. LLC 'Lukoil-Kaliningradmorneft' implements a comprehensive program for the development of the region's shelf in 2014-2023. Due to heterogeneity of reservoir rocks in various open fields, as well as with ambiguous conclusions on the contours of deposits, additional geological prospecting and refinement of the recoverable oil reserves are carried out. The key element is use of an effective technique of computer stock modeling at the first stage of processing of the received data. The following step uses information for the cluster analysis, which makes it possible to optimize the field development approaches. The article analyzes the effectiveness of various methods for reserves' calculation and computer modelling methods of the offshore hydrocarbon fields. Cluster analysis allows to measure influence of the obtained data on the development of a technical and economic model for mining deposits. The relationship between the accuracy of the calculation of recoverable reserves and the need of modernization of existing mining infrastructure, as well as the optimization of the scheme of opening and development of oil deposits, is observed.

Keywords: cluster analysis, computer modelling of deposits, correction of the feasibility study, offshore hydrocarbon fields

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Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

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The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

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Authors: Ritesh Watharkar, Sourabh Chakraborty, Brijesh Srivastava

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Reduction of water from the fruits and vegetables using different drying techniques is widely employed to prolong the shelf life of these food commodities. Heat transfer occurs inside the sample by conduction and mass transfer takes place by diffusion in accordance with temperature and moisture concentration gradient respectively during drying. This study was undertaken to study and model the thin layer drying behavior of Bhimkol pulp. The drying was conducted in a tray drier at 500c temperature with 5, 10 and 15 % concentrations of added maltodextrin. The drying experiments were performed at 5mm thickness of the thin layer and the constant air velocity of 0.5 m/s.Drying data were fitted to different thin layer drying models found in the literature. Comparison of fitted models was based on highest R2(0.9917), lowest RMSE (0.03201), and lowest SSE (0.01537) revealed Middle equation as the best-fitted model for thin layer drying with 10% concentration of maltodextrin. The effective diffusivity was estimated based on the solution of Fick’s law of diffusion which is found in the range of 3.0396 x10-09 to 5.0661 x 10-09. There was a reduction in drying time with the addition of maltodextrin as compare to the raw pulp.

Keywords: Bhimkol, diffusivity, maltodextrine, Midilli model

Procedia PDF Downloads 214

Authors: Laidi Maamar, Achwak Madani, Abdellah El Ahdj Abdellah

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The aim of this work is to use Support Vector regression (SVR) combined with dragonfly, firefly, Bee Colony and particle swarm Optimization algorithm to predict global solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in some cities in Algeria. Combining these optimization algorithms with SVR aims principally to enhance accuracy by fine-tuning the parameters, speeding up the convergence of the SVR model, and exploring a larger search space efficiently; these parameters are the regularization parameter (C), kernel parameters, and epsilon parameter. By doing so, the aim is to improve the generalization and predictive accuracy of the SVR model. Overall, the aim is to leverage the strengths of both SVR and optimization algorithms to create a more powerful and effective regression model for various cities and under different climate conditions. Results demonstrate close agreement between predicted and measured data in terms of different metrics. In summary, SVM has proven to be a valuable tool in modeling global solar radiation, offering accurate predictions and demonstrating versatility when combined with other algorithms or used in hybrid forecasting models.

Keywords: support vector regression (SVR), optimization algorithms, global solar radiation prediction, hybrid forecasting models

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Authors: Tehrrie Konig, Cassiano Bortolozo, Daniel Metodiev, Rodolfo Mendes, Marcio Andrade, Marcio Moraes

Abstract:

Gravitational mass movements are recurrent events in Brazil, usually triggered by intense rainfall. When these events occur in urban areas, they end up becoming disasters due to the economic damage, social impact, and loss of human life. To identify the landslide-susceptible areas, it is important to know the geotechnical parameters of the soil, such as cohesion, internal friction angle, unit weight, hydraulic conductivity, and hydraulic diffusivity. The measurement of these parameters is made by collecting soil samples to analyze in the laboratory and by using geophysical methodologies, such as Vertical Electrical Survey (VES). The geophysical surveys analyze the soil properties with minimal impact in its initial structure. Statistical analysis and mathematical models of physical basis are used to model and calculate the Factor of Safety for steep slope areas. In general, such mathematical models work from the combination of slope stability models and hydrological models. One example is the mathematical model TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope- Stability Model) which calculates the variation of the Factor of Safety of a determined study area. The model relies on changes in pore-pressure and soil moisture during a rainfall event. TRIGRS was written in the Fortran programming language and associates the hydrological model, which is based on the Richards Equation, with the stability model based on the principle of equilibrium limit. Therefore, the aims of this work are modeling the slope stability of Campos do Jordão with TRIGRS, using geotechnical and geophysical methodologies to acquire the soil properties. The study area is located at southern-east of Sao Paulo State in the Mantiqueira Mountains and has a historic landslide register. During the fieldwork, soil samples were collected, and the VES method applied. These procedures provide the soil properties, which were used as input data in the TRIGRS model. The hydrological data (infiltration rate and initial water table height) and rainfall duration and intensity, were acquired from the eight rain gauges installed by Cemaden in the study area. A very high spatial resolution digital terrain model was used to identify the slopes declivity. The analyzed period is from March 6th to March 8th of 2017. As results, the TRIGRS model calculates the variation of the Factor of Safety within a 72-hour period in which two heavy rainfall events stroke the area and six landslides were registered. After each rainfall, the Factor of Safety declined, as expected. The landslides happened in areas identified by the model with low values of Factor of Safety, proving its efficiency on the identification of landslides susceptible areas. This study presents a critical threshold for landslides, in which an accumulated rainfall higher than 80mm/m² in 72 hours might trigger landslides in urban and natural slopes. The geotechnical and geophysics methods are shown to be very useful to identify the soil properties and provide the geological characteristics of the area. Therefore, the combine geotechnical and geophysical methods for soil characterization and the modeling of landslides susceptible areas with TRIGRS are useful for urban planning. Furthermore, early warning systems can be developed by combining the TRIGRS model and weather forecast, to prevent disasters in urban slopes.

Keywords: landslides, susceptibility, TRIGRS, vertical electrical survey

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Mostafa Jafarian Abyaneh, Khashayar Jafari, Vahab Toufigh

Abstract:

The cost of experiments on different types of concrete has raised the demand for prediction of their behavior with numerical analysis. In this research, an advanced numerical model has been presented to predict the complete elastic-plastic behavior of polymer concrete (PC), high-strength concrete (HSC), high performance concrete (HPC) along with different steel fiber contents under uniaxial compression. The accuracy of the numerical response was satisfactory as compared to other conventional simple models such as Mohr-Coulomb and Drucker-Prager. In order to predict the complete elastic-plastic behavior of specimens including softening behavior, disturbed state concept (DSC) was implemented by nonlinear finite element analysis (NFEA) and hierarchical single surface (HISS) failure criterion, which is a failure surface without any singularity.

Keywords: disturbed state concept (DSC), hierarchical single surface (HISS) failure criterion, high performance concrete (HPC), high-strength concrete (HSC), nonlinear finite element analysis (NFEA), polymer concrete (PC), steel fibers, uniaxial compression test

Procedia PDF Downloads 313