Search results for: predictive performance
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 12892

Search results for: predictive performance

12892 Evaluating the Diagnostic Accuracy of the ctDNA Methylation for Liver Cancer

Authors: Maomao Cao

Abstract:

Objective: To test the performance of ctDNA methylation for the detection of liver cancer. Methods: A total of 1233 individuals have been recruited in 2017. 15 male and 15 female samples (including 10 cases of liver cancer) were randomly selected in the present study. CfDNA was extracted by MagPure Circulating DNA Maxi Kit. The concentration of cfDNA was obtained by Qubit™ dsDNA HS Assay Kit. A pre-constructed predictive model was used to analyze methylation data and to give a predictive score for each cfDNA sample. Individuals with a predictive score greater than or equal to 80 were classified as having liver cancer. CT tests were considered the gold standard. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) for the diagnosis of liver cancer were calculated. Results: 9 patients were diagnosed with liver cancer according to the prediction model (with high sensitivity and threshold of 80 points), with scores of 99.2, 91.9, 96.6, 92.4, 91.3, 92.5, 96.8, 91.1, and 92.2, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of ctDNA methylation for the diagnosis of liver cancer were 0.70, 0.90, 0.78, and 0.86, respectively. Conclusions: ctDNA methylation could be an acceptable diagnostic modality for the detection of liver cancer.

Keywords: liver cancer, ctDNA methylation, detection, diagnostic performance

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12891 Computational Simulations on Stability of Model Predictive Control for Linear Discrete-Time Stochastic Systems

Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Model predictive control is a kind of optimal feedback control in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial time and a moving terminal time. This paper examines the stability of model predictive control for linear discrete-time systems with additive stochastic disturbances. A sufficient condition for the stability of the closed-loop system with model predictive control is derived by means of a linear matrix inequality. The objective of this paper is to show the results of computational simulations in order to verify the validity of the obtained stability condition.

Keywords: computational simulations, optimal control, predictive control, stochastic systems, discrete-time systems

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12890 Model Predictive Control Using Thermal Inputs for Crystal Growth Dynamics

Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Recently, crystal growth technologies have made progress by the requirement for the high quality of crystal materials. To control the crystal growth dynamics actively by external forces is useuful for reducing composition non-uniformity. In this study, a control method based on model predictive control using thermal inputs is proposed for crystal growth dynamics of semiconductor materials. The control system of crystal growth dynamics considered here is governed by the continuity, momentum, energy, and mass transport equations. To establish the control method for such thermal fluid systems, we adopt model predictive control known as a kind of optimal feedback control in which the control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial time and terminal time. The objective of this study is to establish a model predictive control method for crystal growth dynamics of semiconductor materials.

Keywords: model predictive control, optimal control, process control, crystal growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 316
12889 Metabolic Predictive Model for PMV Control Based on Deep Learning

Authors: Eunji Choi, Borang Park, Youngjae Choi, Jinwoo Moon

Abstract:

In this study, a predictive model for estimating the metabolism (MET) of human body was developed for the optimal control of indoor thermal environment. Human body images for indoor activities and human body joint coordinated values were collected as data sets, which are used in predictive model. A deep learning algorithm was used in an initial model, and its number of hidden layers and hidden neurons were optimized. Lastly, the model prediction performance was analyzed after the model being trained through collected data. In conclusion, the possibility of MET prediction was confirmed, and the direction of the future study was proposed as developing various data and the predictive model.

Keywords: deep learning, indoor quality, metabolism, predictive model

Procedia PDF Downloads 219
12888 Temperature Control Improvement of Membrane Reactor

Authors: Pornsiri Kaewpradit, Chalisa Pourneaw

Abstract:

Temperature control improvement of a membrane reactor with exothermic and reversible esterification reaction is studied in this work. It is well known that a batch membrane reactor requires different control strategies from a continuous one due to the fact that it is operated dynamically. Due to the effect of the operating temperature, the suitable control scheme has to be designed based reliable predictive model to achieve a desired objective. In the study, the optimization framework has been preliminary formulated in order to determine an optimal temperature trajectory for maximizing a desired product. In model predictive control scheme, a set of predictive models have been initially developed corresponding to the possible operating points of the system. The multiple predictive control moves have been further calculated on-line using the developed models corresponding to current operating point. It is obviously seen in the simulation results that the temperature control has been improved compared to the performance obtained by the conventional predictive controller. Further robustness tests have also been investigated in this study.

Keywords: model predictive control, batch reactor, temperature control, membrane reactor

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12887 Analysis of the Predictive Performance of Value at Risk Estimations in Times of Financial Crisis

Authors: Alexander Marx

Abstract:

Measuring and mitigating market risk is essential for the stability of enterprises, especially for major banking corporations and investment bank firms. To employ these risk measurement and mitigation processes, the Value at Risk (VaR) is the most commonly used risk metric by practitioners. In the past years, we have seen significant weaknesses in the predictive performance of the VaR in times of financial market crisis. To address this issue, the purpose of this study is to investigate the value-at-risk (VaR) estimation models and their predictive performance by applying a series of backtesting methods on the stock market indices of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US, Europe). The study employs parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric VaR estimation models and is conducted during three different periods which cover the most recent financial market crisis: the overall period (2006–2022), the global financial crisis period (2008–2009), and COVID-19 period (2020–2022). Since the regulatory authorities have introduced and mandated the Conditional Value at Risk (Expected Shortfall) as an additional regulatory risk management metric, the study will analyze and compare both risk metrics on their predictive performance.

Keywords: value at risk, financial market risk, banking, quantitative risk management

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12886 A Predictive Machine Learning Model of the Survival of Female-led and Co-Led Small and Medium Enterprises in the UK

Authors: Mais Khader, Xingjie Wei

Abstract:

This research sheds light on female entrepreneurs by providing new insights on the survival predictions of companies led by females in the UK. This study aims to build a predictive machine learning model of the survival of female-led & co-led small & medium enterprises (SMEs) in the UK over the period 2000-2020. The predictive model built utilised a combination of financial and non-financial features related to both companies and their directors to predict SMEs' survival. These features were studied in terms of their contribution to the resultant predictive model. Five machine learning models are used in the modelling: Decision tree, AdaBoost, Naïve Bayes, Logistic regression and SVM. The AdaBoost model had the highest performance of the five models, with an accuracy of 73% and an AUC of 80%. The results show high feature importance in predicting companies' survival for company size, management experience, financial performance, industry, region, and females' percentage in management.

Keywords: company survival, entrepreneurship, females, machine learning, SMEs

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12885 Feature Analysis of Predictive Maintenance Models

Authors: Zhaoan Wang

Abstract:

Research in predictive maintenance modeling has improved in the recent years to predict failures and needed maintenance with high accuracy, saving cost and improving manufacturing efficiency. However, classic prediction models provide little valuable insight towards the most important features contributing to the failure. By analyzing and quantifying feature importance in predictive maintenance models, cost saving can be optimized based on business goals. First, multiple classifiers are evaluated with cross-validation to predict the multi-class of failures. Second, predictive performance with features provided by different feature selection algorithms are further analyzed. Third, features selected by different algorithms are ranked and combined based on their predictive power. Finally, linear explainer SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) is applied to interpret classifier behavior and provide further insight towards the specific roles of features in both local predictions and global model behavior. The results of the experiments suggest that certain features play dominant roles in predictive models while others have significantly less impact on the overall performance. Moreover, for multi-class prediction of machine failures, the most important features vary with type of machine failures. The results may lead to improved productivity and cost saving by prioritizing sensor deployment, data collection, and data processing of more important features over less importance features.

Keywords: automated supply chain, intelligent manufacturing, predictive maintenance machine learning, feature engineering, model interpretation

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12884 Predictive Analysis for Big Data: Extension of Classification and Regression Trees Algorithm

Authors: Ameur Abdelkader, Abed Bouarfa Hafida

Abstract:

Since its inception, predictive analysis has revolutionized the IT industry through its robustness and decision-making facilities. It involves the application of a set of data processing techniques and algorithms in order to create predictive models. Its principle is based on finding relationships between explanatory variables and the predicted variables. Past occurrences are exploited to predict and to derive the unknown outcome. With the advent of big data, many studies have suggested the use of predictive analytics in order to process and analyze big data. Nevertheless, they have been curbed by the limits of classical methods of predictive analysis in case of a large amount of data. In fact, because of their volumes, their nature (semi or unstructured) and their variety, it is impossible to analyze efficiently big data via classical methods of predictive analysis. The authors attribute this weakness to the fact that predictive analysis algorithms do not allow the parallelization and distribution of calculation. In this paper, we propose to extend the predictive analysis algorithm, Classification And Regression Trees (CART), in order to adapt it for big data analysis. The major changes of this algorithm are presented and then a version of the extended algorithm is defined in order to make it applicable for a huge quantity of data.

Keywords: predictive analysis, big data, predictive analysis algorithms, CART algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 104
12883 A Predictive Analytics Approach to Project Management: Reducing Project Failures in Web and Software Development Projects

Authors: Tazeen Fatima

Abstract:

Use of project management in web & software development projects is very significant. It has been observed that even with the application of effective project management, projects usually do not complete their lifecycle and fail. To minimize these failures, key performance indicators have been introduced in previous studies to counter project failures. However, there are always gaps and problems in the KPIs identified. Despite of incessant efforts at technical and managerial levels, projects still fail. There is no substantial approach to identify and avoid these failures in the very beginning of the project lifecycle. In this study, we aim to answer these research problems by analyzing the concept of predictive analytics which is a specialized technology and is very easy to use in this era of computation. Project organizations can use data gathering, compute power, and modern tools to render efficient Predictions. The research aims to identify such a predictive analytics approach. The core objective of the study was to reduce failures and introduce effective implementation of project management principles. Existing predictive analytics methodologies, tools and solution providers were also analyzed. Relevant data was gathered from projects and was analyzed via predictive techniques to make predictions well advance in time to render effective project management in web & software development industry.

Keywords: project management, predictive analytics, predictive analytics methodology, project failures

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12882 Systematic and Simple Guidance for Feed Forward Design in Model Predictive Control

Authors: Shukri Dughman, Anthony Rossiter

Abstract:

This paper builds on earlier work which demonstrated that Model Predictive Control (MPC) may give a poor choice of default feed forward compensator. By first demonstrating the impact of future information of target changes on the performance, this paper proposes a pragmatic method for identifying the amount of future information on the target that can be utilised effectively in both finite and infinite horizon algorithms. Numerical illustrations in MATLAB give evidence of the efficacy of the proposal.

Keywords: model predictive control, tracking control, advance knowledge, feed forward

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12881 A Simulated Evaluation of Model Predictive Control

Authors: Ahmed AlNouss, Salim Ahmed

Abstract:

Process control refers to the techniques to control the variables in a process in order to maintain them at their desired values. Advanced process control (APC) is a broad term within the domain of control where it refers to different kinds of process control and control related tools, for example, model predictive control (MPC), statistical process control (SPC), fault detection and classification (FDC) and performance assessment. APC is often used for solving multivariable control problems and model predictive control (MPC) is one of only a few advanced control methods used successfully in industrial control applications. Advanced control is expected to bring many benefits to the plant operation; however, the extent of the benefits is plant specific and the application needs a large investment. This requires an analysis of the expected benefits before the implementation of the control. In a real plant simulation studies are carried out along with some experimentation to determine the improvement in the performance of the plant due to advanced control. In this research, such an exercise is undertaken to realize the needs of APC application. The main objectives of the paper are as follows: (1) To apply MPC to a number of simulations set up to realize the need of MPC by comparing its performance with that of proportional integral derivatives (PID) controllers. (2) To study the effect of controller parameters on control performance. (3) To develop appropriate performance index (PI) to compare the performance of different controller and develop novel idea to present tuning map of a controller. These objectives were achieved by applying PID controller and a special type of MPC which is dynamic matrix control (DMC) on the multi-tanks process simulated in loop-pro. Then the controller performance has been evaluated by changing the controller parameters. This performance was based on special indices related to the difference between set point and process variable in order to compare the both controllers. The same principle was applied for continuous stirred tank heater (CSTH) and continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) processes simulated in Matlab. However, in these processes some developed programs were written to evaluate the performance of the PID and MPC controllers. Finally these performance indices along with their controller parameters were plotted using special program called Sigmaplot. As a result, the improvement in the performance of the control loops was quantified using relevant indices to justify the need and importance of advanced process control. Also, it has been approved that, by using appropriate indices, predictive controller can improve the performance of the control loop significantly.

Keywords: advanced process control (APC), control loop, model predictive control (MPC), proportional integral derivatives (PID), performance indices (PI)

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12880 Numerical Simulations on Feasibility of Stochastic Model Predictive Control for Linear Discrete-Time Systems with Random Dither Quantization

Authors: Taiki Baba, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

The random dither quantization method enables us to achieve much better performance than the simple uniform quantization method for the design of quantized control systems. Motivated by this fact, the stochastic model predictive control method in which a performance index is minimized subject to probabilistic constraints imposed on the state variables of systems has been proposed for linear feedback control systems with random dither quantization. In other words, a method for solving optimal control problems subject to probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization has been already established. To our best knowledge, however, the feasibility of such a kind of optimal control problems has not yet been studied. Our objective in this paper is to investigate the feasibility of stochastic model predictive control problems for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization. To this end, we provide the results of numerical simulations that verify the feasibility of stochastic model predictive control problems for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization.

Keywords: model predictive control, stochastic systems, probabilistic constraints, random dither quantization

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12879 Application of Fractional Model Predictive Control to Thermal System

Authors: Aymen Rhouma, Khaled Hcheichi, Sami Hafsi

Abstract:

The article presents an application of Fractional Model Predictive Control (FMPC) to a fractional order thermal system using Controlled Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (CARIMA) model obtained by discretization of a continuous fractional differential equation. Moreover, the output deviation approach is exploited to design the K -step ahead output predictor, and the corresponding control law is obtained by solving a quadratic cost function. Experiment results onto a thermal system are presented to emphasize the performances and the effectiveness of the proposed predictive controller.

Keywords: fractional model predictive control, fractional order systems, thermal system, predictive control

Procedia PDF Downloads 373
12878 Model Predictive Control of Turbocharged Diesel Engine with Exhaust Gas Recirculation

Authors: U. Yavas, M. Gokasan

Abstract:

Control of diesel engine’s air path has drawn a lot of attention due to its multi input-multi output, closed coupled, non-linear relation. Today, precise control of amount of air to be combusted is a must in order to meet with tight emission limits and performance targets. In this study, passenger car size diesel engine is modeled by AVL Boost RT, and then simulated with standard, industry level PID controllers. Finally, linear model predictive control is designed and simulated. This study shows the importance of modeling and control of diesel engines with flexible algorithm development in computer based systems.

Keywords: predictive control, engine control, engine modeling, PID control, feedforward compensation

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12877 Stochastic Model Predictive Control for Linear Discrete-Time Systems with Random Dither Quantization

Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Recently, feedback control systems using random dither quantizers have been proposed for linear discrete-time systems. However, the constraints imposed on state and control variables have not yet been taken into account for the design of feedback control systems with random dither quantization. Model predictive control is a kind of optimal feedback control in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial and terminal time. An important advantage of model predictive control is its ability to handle constraints imposed on state and control variables. Based on the model predictive control approach, the objective of this paper is to present a control method that satisfies probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization. In other words, this paper provides a method for solving the optimal control problems subject to probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time feedback control systems with random dither quantization.

Keywords: optimal control, stochastic systems, random dither, quantization

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12876 Model Predictive Control with Unscented Kalman Filter for Nonlinear Implicit Systems

Authors: Takashi Shimizu, Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

A class of implicit systems is known as a more generalized class of systems than a class of explicit systems. To establish a control method for such a generalized class of systems, we adopt model predictive control method which is a kind of optimal feedback control with a performance index that has a moving initial time and terminal time. However, model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems whose all state variables are not exactly known. In other words, model predictive control method is inapplicable to systems with limited measurable states. In fact, it is usual that the state variables of systems are measured through outputs, hence, only limited parts of them can be used directly. It is also usual that output signals are disturbed by process and sensor noises. Hence, it is important to establish a state estimation method for nonlinear implicit systems with taking the process noise and sensor noise into consideration. To this purpose, we apply the model predictive control method and unscented Kalman filter for solving the optimization and estimation problems of nonlinear implicit systems, respectively. The objective of this study is to establish a model predictive control with unscented Kalman filter for nonlinear implicit systems.

Keywords: optimal control, nonlinear systems, state estimation, Kalman filter

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12875 Online Robust Model Predictive Control for Linear Fractional Transformation Systems Using Linear Matrix Inequalities

Authors: Peyman Sindareh Esfahani, Jeffery Kurt Pieper

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem of robust model predictive control (MPC) for discrete-time linear systems in linear fractional transformation form with structured uncertainty and norm-bounded disturbance is investigated. The problem of minimization of the cost function for MPC design is converted to minimization of the worst case of the cost function. Then, this problem is reduced to minimization of an upper bound of the cost function subject to a terminal inequality satisfying the l2-norm of the closed loop system. The characteristic of the linear fractional transformation system is taken into account, and by using some mathematical tools, the robust predictive controller design problem is turned into a linear matrix inequality minimization problem. Afterwards, a formulation which includes an integrator to improve the performance of the proposed robust model predictive controller in steady state condition is studied. The validity of the approaches is illustrated through a robust control benchmark problem.

Keywords: linear fractional transformation, linear matrix inequality, robust model predictive control, state feedback control

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12874 Combined Fuzzy and Predictive Controller for Unity Power Factor Converter

Authors: Abdelhalim Kessal

Abstract:

This paper treats a design of combined control of a single phase power factor correction (PFC). The strategy of the proposed control is based on two parts, the first, for the outer loop (DC output regulated voltage), and the second govern the input current of the converter in order to achieve a sinusoidal form in phase with the grid voltage. Two kinds of regulators are used, Fuzzy controller for the outer loop and predictive controller for the inner loop. The controllers are verified and discussed through simulation under MATLAB/Simulink platform. Also an experimental confirmation is applied. Results present a high dynamic performance under various parameters changes.

Keywords: boost converter, harmonic distortion, Fuzzy, predictive, unity power factor

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12873 Application of Computer Aided Engineering Tools in Performance Prediction and Fault Detection of Mechanical Equipment of Mining Process Line

Authors: K. Jahani, J. Razavi

Abstract:

Nowadays, to decrease the number of downtimes in the industries such as metal mining, petroleum and chemical industries, predictive maintenance is crucial. In order to have efficient predictive maintenance, knowing the performance of critical equipment of production line such as pumps and hydro-cyclones under variable operating parameters, selecting best indicators of this equipment health situations, best locations for instrumentation, and also measuring of these indicators are very important. In this paper, computer aided engineering (CAE) tools are implemented to study some important elements of copper process line, namely slurry pumps and cyclone to predict the performance of these components under different working conditions. These modeling and simulations can be used in predicting, for example, the damage tolerance of the main shaft of the slurry pump or wear rate and location of cyclone wall or pump case and impeller. Also, the simulations can suggest best-measuring parameters, measuring intervals, and their locations.

Keywords: computer aided engineering, predictive maintenance, fault detection, mining process line, slurry pump, hydrocyclone

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12872 Image Steganography Using Predictive Coding for Secure Transmission

Authors: Baljit Singh Khehra, Jagreeti Kaur

Abstract:

In this paper, steganographic strategy is used to hide the text file inside an image. To increase the storage limit, predictive coding is utilized to implant information. In the proposed plan, one can exchange secure information by means of predictive coding methodology. The predictive coding produces high stego-image. The pixels are utilized to insert mystery information in it. The proposed information concealing plan is powerful as contrasted with the existing methodologies. By applying this strategy, a provision helps clients to productively conceal the information. Entropy, standard deviation, mean square error and peak signal noise ratio are the parameters used to evaluate the proposed methodology. The results of proposed approach are quite promising.

Keywords: cryptography, steganography, reversible image, predictive coding

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12871 Meteosat Second Generation Image Compression Based on the Radon Transform and Linear Predictive Coding: Comparison and Performance

Authors: Cherifi Mehdi, Lahdir Mourad, Ameur Soltane

Abstract:

Image compression is used to reduce the number of bits required to represent an image. The Meteosat Second Generation satellite (MSG) allows the acquisition of 12 image files every 15 minutes. Which results a large databases sizes. The transform selected in the images compression should contribute to reduce the data representing the images. The Radon transform retrieves the Radon points that represent the sum of the pixels in a given angle for each direction. Linear predictive coding (LPC) with filtering provides a good decorrelation of Radon points using a Predictor constitute by the Symmetric Nearest Neighbor filter (SNN) coefficients, which result losses during decompression. Finally, Run Length Coding (RLC) gives us a high and fixed compression ratio regardless of the input image. In this paper, a novel image compression method based on the Radon transform and linear predictive coding (LPC) for MSG images is proposed. MSG image compression based on the Radon transform and the LPC provides a good compromise between compression and quality of reconstruction. A comparison of our method with other whose two based on DCT and one on DWT bi-orthogonal filtering is evaluated to show the power of the Radon transform in its resistibility against the quantization noise and to evaluate the performance of our method. Evaluation criteria like PSNR and the compression ratio allows showing the efficiency of our method of compression.

Keywords: image compression, radon transform, linear predictive coding (LPC), run lengthcoding (RLC), meteosat second generation (MSG)

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12870 Stability of Stochastic Model Predictive Control for Schrödinger Equation with Finite Approximation

Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Recent technological advance has prompted significant interest in developing the control theory of quantum systems. Following the increasing interest in the control of quantum dynamics, this paper examines the control problem of Schrödinger equation because quantum dynamics is basically governed by Schrödinger equation. From the practical point of view, stochastic disturbances cannot be avoided in the implementation of control method for quantum systems. Thus, we consider here the robust stabilization problem of Schrödinger equation against stochastic disturbances. In this paper, we adopt model predictive control method in which control performance over a finite future is optimized with a performance index that has a moving initial and terminal time. The objective of this study is to derive the stability criterion for model predictive control of Schrödinger equation under stochastic disturbances.

Keywords: optimal control, stochastic systems, quantum systems, stabilization

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12869 Investigations into Effect of Neural Network Predictive Control of UPFC for Improving Transient Stability Performance of Multimachine Power System

Authors: Sheela Tiwari, R. Naresh, R. Jha

Abstract:

The paper presents an investigation into the effect of neural network predictive control of UPFC on the transient stability performance of a multi-machine power system. The proposed controller consists of a neural network model of the test system. This model is used to predict the future control inputs using the damped Gauss-Newton method which employs ‘backtracking’ as the line search method for step selection. The benchmark 2 area, 4 machine system that mimics the behavior of large power systems is taken as the test system for the study and is subjected to three phase short circuit faults at different locations over a wide range of operating conditions. The simulation results clearly establish the robustness of the proposed controller to the fault location, an increase in the critical clearing time for the circuit breakers and an improved damping of the power oscillations as compared to the conventional PI controller.

Keywords: identification, neural networks, predictive control, transient stability, UPFC

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12868 A Predictive Model of Supply and Demand in the State of Jalisco, Mexico

Authors: M. Gil, R. Montalvo

Abstract:

Business Intelligence (BI) has become a major source of competitive advantages for firms around the world. BI has been defined as the process of data visualization and reporting for understanding what happened and what is happening. Moreover, BI has been studied for its predictive capabilities in the context of trade and financial transactions. The current literature has identified that BI permits managers to identify market trends, understand customer relations, and predict demand for their products and services. This last capability of BI has been of special concern to academics. Specifically, due to its power to build predictive models adaptable to specific time horizons and geographical regions. However, the current literature of BI focuses on predicting specific markets and industries because the impact of such predictive models was relevant to specific industries or organizations. Currently, the existing literature has not developed a predictive model of BI that takes into consideration the whole economy of a geographical area. This paper seeks to create a predictive model of BI that would show the bigger picture of a geographical area. This paper uses a data set from the Secretary of Economic Development of the state of Jalisco, Mexico. Such data set includes data from all the commercial transactions that occurred in the state in the last years. By analyzing such data set, it will be possible to generate a BI model that predicts supply and demand from specific industries around the state of Jalisco. This research has at least three contributions. Firstly, a methodological contribution to the BI literature by generating the predictive supply and demand model. Secondly, a theoretical contribution to BI current understanding. The model presented in this paper incorporates the whole picture of the economic field instead of focusing on a specific industry. Lastly, a practical contribution might be relevant to local governments that seek to improve their economic performance by implementing BI in their policy planning.

Keywords: business intelligence, predictive model, supply and demand, Mexico

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12867 Predictive Analytics in Oil and Gas Industry

Authors: Suchitra Chnadrashekhar

Abstract:

Earlier looked as a support function in an organization information technology has now become a critical utility to manage their daily operations. Organizations are processing huge amount of data which was unimaginable few decades before. This has opened the opportunity for IT sector to help industries across domains to handle the data in the most intelligent manner. Presence of IT has been a leverage for the Oil & Gas industry to store, manage and process the data in most efficient way possible thus deriving the economic value in their day-to-day operations. Proper synchronization between Operational data system and Information Technology system is the need of the hour. Predictive analytics supports oil and gas companies by addressing the challenge of critical equipment performance, life cycle, integrity, security, and increase their utilization. Predictive analytics go beyond early warning by providing insights into the roots of problems. To reach their full potential, oil and gas companies need to take a holistic or systems approach towards asset optimization and thus have the functional information at all levels of the organization in order to make the right decisions. This paper discusses how the use of predictive analysis in oil and gas industry is redefining the dynamics of this sector. Also, the paper will be supported by real time data and evaluation of the data for a given oil production asset on an application tool, SAS. The reason for using SAS as an application for our analysis is that SAS provides an analytics-based framework to improve uptimes, performance and availability of crucial assets while reducing the amount of unscheduled maintenance, thus minimizing maintenance-related costs and operation disruptions. With state-of-the-art analytics and reporting, we can predict maintenance problems before they happen and determine root causes in order to update processes for future prevention.

Keywords: hydrocarbon, information technology, SAS, predictive analytics

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12866 Use of Predictive Food Microbiology to Determine the Shelf-Life of Foods

Authors: Fatih Tarlak

Abstract:

Predictive microbiology can be considered as an important field in food microbiology in which it uses predictive models to describe the microbial growth in different food products. Predictive models estimate the growth of microorganisms quickly, efficiently, and in a cost-effective way as compared to traditional methods of enumeration, which are long-lasting, expensive, and time-consuming. The mathematical models used in predictive microbiology are mainly categorised as primary and secondary models. The primary models are the mathematical equations that define the growth data as a function of time under a constant environmental condition. The secondary models describe the effects of environmental factors, such as temperature, pH, and water activity (aw) on the parameters of the primary models, including the maximum specific growth rate and lag phase duration, which are the most critical growth kinetic parameters. The combination of primary and secondary models provides valuable information to set limits for the quantitative detection of the microbial spoilage and assess product shelf-life.

Keywords: shelf-life, growth model, predictive microbiology, simulation

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12865 DFIG-Based Wind Turbine with Shunt Active Power Filter Controlled by Double Nonlinear Predictive Controller

Authors: Abderrahmane El Kachani, El Mahjoub Chakir, Anass Ait Laachir, Abdelhamid Niaaniaa, Jamal Zerouaoui, Tarik Jarou

Abstract:

This paper presents a wind turbine based on the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) connected to the utility grid through a shunt active power filter (SAPF). The whole system is controlled by a double nonlinear predictive controller (DNPC). A Taylor series expansion is used to predict the outputs of the system. The control law is calculated by optimization of the cost function. The first nonlinear predictive controller (NPC) is designed to ensure the high performance tracking of the rotor speed and regulate the rotor current of the DFIG, while the second one is designed to control the SAPF in order to compensate the harmonic produces by the three-phase diode bridge supplied by a passive circuit (rd, Ld). As a result, we obtain sinusoidal waveforms of the stator voltage and stator current. The proposed nonlinear predictive controllers (NPCs) are validated via simulation on a 1.5 MW DFIG-based wind turbine connected to an SAPF. The results obtained appear to be satisfactory and promising.

Keywords: wind power, doubly fed induction generator, shunt active power filter, double nonlinear predictive controller

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12864 Robust Control of Cyber-Physical System under Cyber Attacks Based on Invariant Tubes

Authors: Bruno Vilić Belina, Jadranko Matuško

Abstract:

The rapid development of cyber-physical systems significantly influences modern control systems introducing a whole new range of applications of control systems but also putting them under new challenges to ensure their resiliency to possible cyber attacks, either in the form of data integrity attacks or deception attacks. This paper presents a model predictive approach to the control of cyber-physical systems robust to cyber attacks. We assume that a cyber attack can be modelled as an additive disturbance that acts in the measuring channel. For such a system, we designed a tube-based predictive controller based. The performance of the designed controller has been verified in Matlab/Simulink environment.

Keywords: control systems, cyber attacks, resiliency, robustness, tube based model predictive control

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12863 Multi Object Tracking for Predictive Collision Avoidance

Authors: Bruk Gebregziabher

Abstract:

The safe and efficient operation of Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs) in complex environments, such as manufacturing, logistics, and agriculture, necessitates accurate multiobject tracking and predictive collision avoidance. This paper presents algorithms and techniques for addressing these challenges using Lidar sensor data, emphasizing ensemble Kalman filter. The developed predictive collision avoidance algorithm employs the data provided by lidar sensors to track multiple objects and predict their velocities and future positions, enabling the AMR to navigate safely and effectively. A modification to the dynamic windowing approach is introduced to enhance the performance of the collision avoidance system. The overall system architecture encompasses object detection, multi-object tracking, and predictive collision avoidance control. The experimental results, obtained from both simulation and real-world data, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods in various scenarios, which lays the foundation for future research on global planners, other controllers, and the integration of additional sensors. This thesis contributes to the ongoing development of safe and efficient autonomous systems in complex and dynamic environments.

Keywords: autonomous mobile robots, multi-object tracking, predictive collision avoidance, ensemble Kalman filter, lidar sensors

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