Search results for: risk measure

Authors: Mark White

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The best practices for owners and urban planners to manage tsunami risk have evolved during the last fifty years, and related technical advances have created opportunities for them to obtain better performance than in earlier cataclysmic tsunami inundations. This basic pattern is illustrated at Hilo Bay, the waterfront area of Hilo, Hawaii, an urban seaport which faces the most severe tsunami hazard of the Hawaiian archipelago. Since April 1, 1946, Hilo Bay has endured tsunami waves with a maximum water height exceeding 2.5 meters following four severe earthquakes: Unimak Island (Mw 8.6, 6.1 m) in 1946; Valdiva (Mw 9.5, the largest earthquake of the 20th century, 10.6 m) in 1960; William Prince Sound (Mw 9.2, 3.8 m) in 1964; and Kalapana (Mw 7.7, the largest earthquake in Hawaii since 1868, 2.6 m) in 1975. Ignoring numerous smaller tsunamis during the same time frame, these four cataclysmic tsunamis have caused property losses in Hilo to exceed $1.25 billion and more than 150 deaths. It is reasonable to foresee another cataclysmic tsunami inundating the urban core of Hilo in the next 50 years, which, if unchecked, could cause additional deaths and losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Urban planners and individual owners are now in a position to reduce these losses in the next foreseeable tsunami that generates maximum water heights between 2.5 and 10 meters in Hilo Bay. Since 1946, Hilo planners and individual owners have already created buffer zones between the shoreline and its historic downtown area. As these stakeholders make inevitable improvements to the built environment along and adjacent to the shoreline, they should incorporate new methods for better managing the obvious tsunami risk at Hilo. At the planning level, new manmade land forms, such as tsunami parks and inundation reservoirs, should be developed. Individual owners should require their design professionals to include sacrificial seismic and tsunami fuses that will perform well in foreseeable severe events and that can be easily repaired in the immediate aftermath. These investments before the next cataclysmic tsunami at Hilo will yield substantial reductions in property losses and fatalities.

Keywords: hilo, tsunami parks, reservoirs, fuse systems, risk managment

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Authors: Todd Jackson

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In this randomized control trial, we tested the effectiveness of a peer-facilitated version of the Body Project (BP) intervention among body-dissatisfied young women in China. Participants were randomly assigned to a peer-facilitator BP condition (N = 94) versus an educational video minimal intervention control condition (N = 89). Questionnaire measures of two primary outcomes (i.e., disordered eating and body dissatisfaction) and six secondary outcomes (thin-ideal internalization, pressure to be thin, negative affect, body surveillance, body shame, body appreciation and interest in cosmetic surgery) were administered at a pre-treatment baseline, a post-treatment assessment, and at a 12-month follow-up. A series of 2 (Group) x 2 (Time) analyses of variance indicated women in the peer-facilitated BP condition reported significant improvements in primary outcome measures of disordered eating and body dissatisfaction compared to women in the educational video control condition following treatment and at the 12-month follow-up. Furthermore, women in the peer-facilitated BP condition reported significant improvements in measures of body surveillance, body shame and body appreciation) compared to educational video controls that extended to the 12-month follow-up. Finally, although women in the peer-facilitated BP condition showed significant post-treatment improvements in thin-ideal internalization, negative affect, perceived pressure to be thin, and interest in cosmetic surgery compared to video controls, these differences were no longer statistically significant at the 12-month follow-up. In conclusion, findings supported the overall effectiveness of a peer-facilitated group version of the BP as an intervention for reducing disordered eating and several associated risk factors among at-risk young women in China.

Keywords: body project, disordered eating, body dissatisfaction, risk factors, prevention, China

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Authors: Tanja Kreitenweis

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Lifelong learning is increasingly seen as essential for coping with the rapidly changing work environment. To this end, serious games can provide convenient and straightforward access to complex knowledge for all age groups. However, learning achievements depend largely on a learner’s non-cognitive skill disposition (e.g., motivation, self-belief, playfulness, and openness). With the aim of combining the fields of serious games and non-cognitive skills, this research focuses in particular on the use of a business simulation, which conveys change management insights. Business simulations are a subset of serious games and are perceived as a non-traditional learning method. The presented objectives of this work are versatile: (1) developing a scale, which measures learners’ knowledge and skills level before and after a business simulation was played, (2) investigating the influence of non-cognitive skills on learning in this business simulation environment and (3) exploring the moderating role of team preference in this type of learning setting. First, expert interviews have been conducted to develop an appropriate measure for learners’ skills and knowledge assessment. A pretest-posttest experimental design with German management students was implemented to approach the remaining objectives. By using the newly developed, reliable measure, it was found that students’ skills and knowledge state were higher after the simulation had been played, compared to before. A hierarchical regression analysis revealed two positive predictors for this outcome: motivation and self-esteem. Unexpectedly, playfulness had a negative impact. Team preference strengthened the link between grit and playfulness, respectively, and learners’ skills and knowledge state after completing the business simulation. Overall, the data underlined the potential of business simulations to improve learners’ skills and knowledge state. In addition, motivational factors were found as predictors for benefitting most from the applied business simulation. Recommendations are provided for how pedagogues can use these findings.

Keywords: business simulations, change management, (experiential) learning, non-cognitive skills, serious games

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Authors: Melese Wondatir

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Flooding ranks among the most destructive natural disasters, impacting millions of individuals globally and resulting in substantial economic, social, and environmental repercussions. This study's objective was to create a comprehensive model that assesses the Nile River basin's susceptibility to flood damage and improves existing flood risk management strategies. Authorities responsible for enacting policies and implementing measures may benefit from this research to acquire essential information about the flood, including its scope and susceptible areas. The identification of severe flood damage locations and efficient mitigation techniques were made possible by the use of geospatial data. Slope, elevation, distance from the river, drainage density, topographic witness index, rainfall intensity, distance from road, NDVI, soil type, and land use type were all used throughout the study to determine the vulnerability of flood damage. Ranking elements according to their significance in predicting flood damage risk was done using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and geospatial approaches. The analysis finds that the most important parameters determining the region's vulnerability are distance from the river, topographic witness index, rainfall, and elevation, respectively. The consistency ratio (CR) value obtained in this case is 0.000866 (<0.1), which signifies the acceptance of the derived weights. Furthermore, 10.84m2, 83331.14m2, 476987.15m2, 24247.29m2, and 15.83m2 of the region show varying degrees of vulnerability to flooding—very low, low, medium, high, and very high, respectively. Due to their close proximity to the river, the northern-western regions of the Nile River basin—especially those that are close to Sudanese cities like Khartoum—are more vulnerable to flood damage, according to the research findings. Furthermore, the AUC ROC curve demonstrates that the categorized vulnerability map achieves an accuracy rate of 91.0% based on 117 sample points. By putting into practice strategies to address the topographic witness index, rainfall patterns, elevation fluctuations, and distance from the river, vulnerable settlements in the area can be protected, and the impact of future flood occurrences can be greatly reduced. Furthermore, the research findings highlight the urgent requirement for infrastructure development and effective flood management strategies in the northern and western regions of the Nile River basin, particularly in proximity to major towns such as Khartoum. Overall, the study recommends prioritizing high-risk locations and developing a complete flood risk management plan based on the vulnerability map.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, Blue Nile Basin, geospatial techniques, flood vulnerability, multi-criteria decision making

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Authors: Elizabeth Behrens, Anne Timmermann, Alexander Yerkan, Joshua Thomas, Deborah Katz, Agne Paner, Melissa Larson, Shivi Jain, Seo-Hyun Kim, Celalettin Ustun, Ankur Varma, Parameswaran Venugopal, Jamile Shammo

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Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) causes persistent concern for poor outcomes in vulnerable populations. Patients with hematologic malignancies (HM) have been found to have higher COVID-19 case fatality rates compared to those without malignancy. While cytopenias are common in patients with HM, especially in those undergoing chemotherapy treatment, hemoglobin (Hgb) and platelet count have not yet been studied, to our best knowledge, as potential prognostic indicators for patients with HM and COVID-19. The goal of this study is to identify factors that may increase the risk of mortality in patients with HM and COVID-19. In this single-center, retrospective, observational study, 65 patients with HM and laboratory confirmed COVID-19 were identified between March 2020 and January 2021. Information on demographics, laboratory data the day of COVID-19 diagnosis, and prognosis was extracted from the electronic medical record (EMR), chart reviewed, and analyzed using the statistical software SAS version 9.4. Chi-square testing was used for categorical variable analyses. Risk factors associated with mortality were established by logistic regression models. Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (37%), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (20%), and plasma cell dyscrasia (15%) were the most common HM. Higher Hgb level upon COVID-19 diagnosis was related to decreased mortality, odd ratio=0.704 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.511-0.969; P = .0263). Platelet count the day of COVID-19 diagnosis was lower in patients who ultimately died (mean 127 ± 72K/uL, n=10) compared to patients who survived (mean 197 ±92K/uL, n=55) (P=.0258). Female sex was related to decreased mortality, odd ratio=0.143 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.026-0.785; P = .0353). There was no mortality difference between the patients who were on treatment for HM the day of COVID-19 diagnosis compared to those who were not (P=1.000). Lower Hgb and male sex are independent risk factors associated with increased mortality of HM patients with COVID-19. Clinicians should be especially attentive to patients with HM and COVID-19 who present with cytopenias. Larger multi-center studies are urgently needed to further investigate the impact of anemia, thrombocytopenia, and demographics on outcomes of patients with hematologic malignancies diagnosed with COVID-19.

Keywords: anemia, COVID-19, hematologic malignancy, prognosis

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Authors: Haftay Abraha Tadesse, Dawit Gebreegziabiher Hagos, Atsebaha Gebrekidan Kahsay, Mahumd Abdulkader

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Background: Salmonella species and Escherichia coli (E. coli) are important foodborne pathogens affecting humans and animals. They are among the most important causes of infection that are associated with the consumption of contaminated food. This study was aimed to determine the prevalence, antimicrobial susceptibility patterns and associated risk factors for Salmonella species and E. coli in raw meat from butchery houses of Mekelle, Northern Ethiopia. Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted from January to December 2019. Socio-demographic data and risk factors were collected using a predesigned questionnaire. Meat samples were collected aseptically from the butchery houses and transported using icebox to Mekelle University, College of Veterinary Sciences for the isolation and identification of Salmonella species and E. coli. Antimicrobial susceptibility patterns were determined using Kirby disc diffusion method. Data obtained were cleaned and entered into Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 22 and logistic regression models with odds ratio were calculated. P-value < 0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Results: A total of 153 out of 384 (39.8%) of the meat specimens were found to be contaminated. The contamination of Salmonella species and E. coli were 15.6% (n=60) and 20.8%) (n=80), respectively. Mixed contamination (Salmonella species and E. coli) was observed in 13 (3.4 %) of the analyzed. Poor washing hands regularly (AOR = 8.37; 95% CI: 2.75-25.50) and not using gloves during meat handling (AOR=11. 28; 95% CI:(4.69 27.10) were associated with overall bacterial contamination. About 100% of the tested isolates were sensitive to ciprofloxacin, gentamicin, Co trimoxazole , sulphamethoxazole, ceftriaxone, and trimethoprim and ciprofloxacin, gentamicin, and norfloxacine of E. coli and Salmonella species, respectively, while the resistance of amoxyclav_amoxicillin and erythromycin were both isolated bacteria species. The overall multidrug resistance pattern for Salmonella and E. coli were 51.4% (n=19) and 31.8% (14), respectively. Conclusion: Of the 153 (153/384) contaminated raw meat, 60 (15.6%) and 80 (20.8%) were contaminated by Salmonella species and E. coli, respectively. Poor handwashing practice and not using glove during meat handling showed a significant association with bacterial contamination. Multidrug-resistant showed in Salmonella species, and E. coli were 19 (51.4%) and 14 (31.8%), respectively.

Keywords: antimicrobial susceptibility test, butchery houses, E. coli, raw meat, salmonella species

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Authors: Bayan Bevrani, Robert L. Burdett, Prasad K. D. V. Yarlagadda

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This article focuses upon multi-modal transportation systems (MMTS) and the issues surrounding the determination of system capacity. For that purpose a multi-objective framework is advocated that integrates all the different modes and many different competing capacity objectives. This framework is analytical in nature and facilitates a variety of capacity querying and capacity expansion planning.

Keywords: analytical model, capacity analysis, capacity query, multi-modal transportation system (MMTS)

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Authors: Ella Abaev, Shany Segal, Miri Gabay

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Background: Choking is a blockage of airways that prevents efficient breathing and air flow to the lungs. Choking may be partial or full and is an emergency situation. Complete or prolonged choking leads to apnea, lack of oxygen in the tissues of the body and brain, and can cause death. There are three mechanisms of choking: obstruction of internal respiratory tracts by food or object aspiration, any material that blocks or covers external air passages, external pressure on the neck or trapping between objects. Children's airways are narrower than that of adults and therefore the risk of choking is greater, due to the aspiration of food and other foreign bodies into the lungs. In the Child Development Center at Safra Children’s Hospital, Tel Hashomer in Israel are treated infants, toddlers, and children aged 0-18 years with various developmental disabilities. Due to the increase in reports of ‘almost an event’ of choking in the past year and the serious consequences of choking event, it was decided to give an emphasis to the issue. Incidence and methods: The number of reports of ‘almost an event’ or a choking event was examined at the center during the years 2013-2018 and a thorough research work was conducted on the subject in order to build a prevention program. Findings: Between 2013 and 2018 the center reported about ten cases of ‘almost choking events’. In the middle of 2018 alone three cases of ‘almost an event’ were reported. Objective: Providing knowledge leads to awareness raise, change of perception, change in behavior and prevention. The center employs more than 130 staff members from various sectors so that it is the work of multi-professional teams to promote the quality and safety of the treatment. The familiarity of the staff with risk factors, prevention guidelines, identification of choking signs, and treatment are most important and significant in determining the outcome of a choking event. Conclusions and recommendations: After in-depth research work was carried out in cooperation with the Risk Management Unit on the subject of choking, which include a description of the definitions, mechanisms, risk factors, treatment methods and extensive recommendations for prevention (e.g. using treatment and stimulation accessories with standards association stamps and adjustment of the type of food and the way it is served to match to the child's age and the ability to swallow). The expected stages of development and emphasis on the population of children with special needs were taken into account. The research findings will be published by the staff and parents of the patients, professional publications, and lectures and there is an expectation to decrease the number of choking events in the next years.

Keywords: children with special needs, choking, educational system, prevention guidelines

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Authors: Mohsin Sadaqat, Hilal Anwar Butt

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Following the stock selection guidelines provided by the Sharia Board (SB), we segregate the firms listed at Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) into Sharia Compliant (SC) and Non-Sharia Compliant (NSC) stocks. Subsequently, we form portfolios within each group based on market capitalization and volatility. The purpose is to analyze and compare the performance of these two groups as the SC stocks have lesser diversification opportunities due to SB restrictions. Using data ranging from January 2004 until June 2016, our results indicate that in most of the cases the risk-adjusted returns (alphas) for the returns differential between SC and NCS firms are positive. In addition, the SC firms in comparison to their counterparts in PSX provides excess returns that are hedged against the market, size, and value-based systematic risks factors. Overall, these results reconcile with one prevailing notion that the SC stocks that have lower financial leverage and higher investment in real assets are lesser exposed to market-based risks. Further, the SC firms that are more capitalized and less volatile, perform better than lower capitalized and higher volatile SC and NSC firms. To sum up our results, we do not find any substantial evidence for opportunity loss due to limited diversification opportunities in case of SC firms. To optimally utilize scarce resources, investors should consider SC firms as a candidate in portfolio construction.

Keywords: diversification, performance, sharia compliant stocks, risk adjusted returns

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Authors: H. R. Goshayeshi, M. Khalouei, S. Azarberamman

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This paper presents an experimental investigation regarding the use of Fe2O3 nano particles added to kerosene as a working fluid, under magnetic field. The experiment was made on Oscillating Heat Pipe (OHP). The experiment was performed in order to measure the temperature distribution and compare the heat transfer rate of the oscillating heat pipe with and without magnetic Field. Results showed that the addition of Fe2o3 nano particles under magnetic field improved thermal performance of OHP, compare with non-magnetic field. Furthermore applying a magnetic field enhance the heat transfer characteristic of Fe2O3 in both start up and steady state conditions. This paper presents an experimental investigation regarding the use of Fe2O3 nano particles added to kerosene as a working fluid, under magnetic field. The experiment was made on Oscillating Heat Pipe (OHP). The experiment was performed in order to measure the temperature distribution and compare the heat transfer rate of the oscillating heat pipe with and without magnetic Field. Results showed that the addition of Fe2o3 nano particles under magnetic field improved thermal performance of OHP, compare with non-magnetic field. Furthermore applying a magnetic field enhance the heat transfer characteristic of Fe2O3 in both start up and steady state conditions.

Keywords: experimental, oscillating heat pipe, heat transfer, magnetic field

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Authors: Siddhant Yadav, Rylea Ranum, Hannah Alberts, Abdul Kalaiger, Brent Bauer, Ryan Hurt, Ann Vincent, Loren Toussaint, Sanjeev Nanda

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Background and significance: Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic pain disorder also characterized by chronic fatigue, morning stiffness, sleep, and cognitive symptoms, psychological disturbances (anxiety, depression), and is comorbid with multiple medical and psychiatric conditions. It has an incidence of 2-4% in the general population and is reported more commonly in women. Oxidative stress and inflammation are thought to contribute to pain in patients with FM, and the adoption of an antioxidant/anti-inflammatory diet has been suggested as a modality to alleviate symptoms. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the efficacy of specialized diets (ketogenic, gluten free, Mediterranean, and low carbohydrate) in improving FM symptoms. Methodology: A comprehensive search of the following databases from inception to July 15th, 2021, was conducted: Ovid MEDLINE and Epub ahead of print, in-process and other non-indexed citations and daily, Ovid Embase, Ovid EBM reviews, Cochrane central register of controlled trials, EBSCO host CINAHL with full text, Elsevier Scopus, website and citation index, web of science emerging sources citation and clinicaltrials.gov. We included randomized controlled trials, non-randomized experimental studies, cross-sectional studies, cohort studies, case series, and case reports in adults with fibromyalgia. The risk of bias was assessed with the Agency for Health Care Research and Quality designed, specific recommended criteria (AHRQ). Results: Thirteen studies were eligible for inclusion. This included a total of 761 participants. Twelve out of the 13 studies reported improvement in widespread body pain, joint stiffness, sleeping pattern, mood, and gastrointestinal symptoms, and one study reported no changes in symptomatology in patients with FM on specialized diets. None of the studies showed the worsening of symptoms associated with a specific diet. Most of the patient population was female, with the mean age at which fibromyalgia was diagnosed being 48.12 years. Improvement in symptoms was reported by the patient's adhering to a gluten-free diet, raw vegan diet, tryptophan- and magnesium-enriched Mediterranean diet, aspartame- and msg- elimination diet, and specifically a Khorasan wheat diet. Risk of bias assessment noted that 6 studies had a low risk of bias (5 clinical trials and 1 case series), four studies had a moderate risk of bias, and 3 had a high risk of bias. In many of the studies, the allocation of treatment (diets) was not adequately concealed, and the researchers did not rule out any potential impact from a concurrent intervention or an unintended exposure that might have biased the results. On the other hand, there was a low risk of attrition bias in all the trials; all were conducted with an intention-to-treat, and the inclusion/exclusion criteria, exposures/interventions, and primary outcomes were valid, reliable, and implemented consistently across all study participants. Concluding statement: Patients with fibromyalgia who followed specialized diets experienced a variable degree of improvement in their widespread body pain. Improvement was also seen in stiffness, fatigue, moods, sleeping patterns, and gastrointestinal symptoms. Additionally, the majority of the patients also reported improvement in overall quality of life.

Keywords: fibromyalgia, specialized diet, vegan, gluten free, Mediterranean, systematic review

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Authors: Dieudonne Uwizeye

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Introduction: Diarrhoea is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality among communities living in urban informal settlements of developing countries. It is assumed that mountainous environment introduces variations of the burden among residents of the same settlements. Design and Objective: A cross-sectional study was done in Kigali to explore the effect of mountainous informal settlements on diarrhoea risk variations. Data were collected among 1,152 households through household survey and transect walk to observe the status of sanitation. The outcome variable was the incidence of diarrhoea among household members of any age. The study used the most knowledgeable person in the household as the main respondent. Mostly this was the woman of the house as she was more likely to know the health status of every household member as she plays various roles: mother, wife, and head of the household among others. The analysis used cross tabulation and logistic regression analysis. Results: Results suggest that risks for diarrhoea vary depending on home location in the settlements. Diarrhoea risk increased as the distance from the road increased. The results of the logistic regression analysis indicate the adjusted odds ratio of 2.97 with 95% confidence interval being 1.35-6.55 and 3.50 adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval being 1.61-7.60 in level two and three respectively compared with level one. The status of sanitation within and around homes was also significantly associated with the increase of diarrhoea. Equally, it is indicated that stable households were less likely to have diarrhoea. The logistic regression analysis indicated the adjusted odds ratio of 0.45 with 95% confidence interval being 0.25-0.81. However, the study did not find evidence for a significant association between diarrhoea risks and household socioeconomic status in the multivariable model. It is assumed that environmental factors in mountainous settings prevailed. Households using the available public water sources were more likely to have diarrhoea in their households. Recommendation: The study recommends the provision and extension of infrastructure for improved water, drainage, sanitation and wastes management facilities. Equally, studies should be done to identify the level of contamination and potential origin of contaminants for water sources in the valleys to adequately control the risks for diarrhoea in mountainous urban settings.

Keywords: urbanisation, diarrhoea risk, mountainous environment, urban informal settlements in Rwanda

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Authors: Siti Fatimah Kader Maideen, Abdul Rashid, Nur Indah Ahmad

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Introduction: Indigenous people have an increased risk of contracting zoonotic infections due to their practices. Similarly, the aborigines in Peninsular Malaysia, the Orang Asli, have a higher risk too. This study aimed to empower the Jahai children on the prevention of zoonotic infections by implementing a health promotion intervention program. Methods: A non-experimental pre and post-test interventional study was conducted among the indigenous primary school children aged between nine and 12 years in Perak, Malaysia. A structured questionnaire was used to assess the pre-and post-knowledge and attitudes towards zoonotic infections and hand hygiene practice. This is followed by three sessions of the health promotion program. Ethical approval was obtained prior to the data collection. Data were analysed using SPSS software. Results: The knowledge on whether diseases can spread from animals to humans, transmission via saliva and faeces, types of organisms that can infect, and signs and symptoms increased significantly between pre and post. Significant improvements were observed in the attitude and practices too. Conclusion: The intervention program demonstrated improvement in the knowledge, attitude, and practice among the children. The continuous program needs to be conducted for a sustainable outcome.

Keywords: health promotion, zoonotic infections, aborigines, knowledge, practice

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Authors: Mia Françoise

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This report aims to develop a strategy for assisting short-term investors to benefit from the current economic climate in South Africa by utilizing technical analysis techniques and predictive analytics. As part of this research, value investing and technical analysis principles will be combined to maximize returns for South African investors while optimizing volatility. As an emerging market, South Africa offers many opportunities for high growth in sectors where other developed countries cannot grow at the same rate. Investing in South African companies with significant growth potential can be extremely rewarding. Although the risk involved is more significant in countries with less developed markets and infrastructure, there is more room for growth in these countries. According to recent research, the offshore market is expected to outperform the local market over the long term; however, short-term investments in the local market will likely be more profitable, as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is predicted to outperform the S&P500 over the short term. The instabilities in the economy contribute to increased market volatility, which can benefit investors if appropriately utilized. Price prediction and portfolio optimization comprise the two primary components of this methodology. As part of this process, statistics and other predictive modeling techniques will be used to predict the future performance of stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Following predictive data analysis, Modern Portfolio Theory, based on Markowitz's Mean-Variance Theorem, will be applied to optimize the allocation of assets within an investment portfolio. By combining different assets within an investment portfolio, this optimization method produces a portfolio with an optimal ratio of expected risk to expected return. This methodology aims to provide a short-term investment with a stock portfolio that offers the best risk-to-return profile for stocks listed on the JSE by combining price prediction and portfolio optimization.

Keywords: financial stocks, optimized asset allocation, prediction modelling, South Africa

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Authors: Maryam Ehsanpour, Maryam Malekpour, Rastin Afkhami

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Today, industry is one of the indices of growth and development of countries and is a suitable applicable criterion to compare the countries. Bandar Abbas has a high industrial centralization in term of geographical redundancy of industries in comparison with other rural and urban places of Hormozgan province. Most important and major industries of the province are located in Bandar abbas eighth refinery, power plant, zinc melting company, Almahdi Aluminium, Hormozgan steel, south steel, which are the most important of these industries. So, it is necessary to study pollution from these industries and their destructive effects on environment of region. In respect of these things, general purpose of this research is codling and presenting managing solution of Almahdi Aluminium factory in them of measuring of air (atmosphere) parameters. For gaining this purpose it is necessary to determine measure of heavy metals suspension in the air (atmosphere) in the neighborhood of industries and also in residential regions close to them as partial purposes. So, for achieving the purposes above, operation of sampling from the air in two hot and cold seasons of the year (2010-2011) was performed, after field reviews to recognize the sources of effluence and to choose place of sampling stations. Sampling and preparation way to read was based on EPA and NIOSH. Also, decreasing process was included Fe>Al>Cd>Pb>Ni respectively, in term of results gaining from sampling of ingredients existing in the air (atmosphere). Also Ni and Fe elements in samples of air were higher than permissive measure in both of cold and hot season. Average of these two metals was 34% and 33% in cold season and 44% and 34% micrograms/m3 in hot season. Finally, suitable managing solutions to improve existing situation is presented in term for all results.

Keywords: Almahdi aluminium factory, Bandar Abbas, scarce metals, atmosphere

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Authors: Kaili Wang, Botao Zhang, Enming Zhang

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Background: Low back pain (LBP) is a common problem affecting athletes' training and competition. Although the association between a limited hip range of motion and prevalence of low back pain has been studied extensively, it has not been studied in table tennis. Aim: The main purposes of this study in table tennis players were (1) to investigate if there is a difference in hip internal rotation (HIR) and external rotation (HER) range of motion (ROM) between players with LBP and players without LBP and (2) to analyze the association between HIR and HER ROM and LBP. Methods: Forty-six table tennis players from the Chinese table tennis team were evaluated for passive maximum HIR and HER ROM. LBP was retrospectively recorded for the last 12 months before the date of ROM assessment by a physical therapist. The data were analyzed the difference in HIR and HER ROM between players with LBP and players without LBP by Mann-Whitney U test, and the association between the difference in HIR and HER ROM and LBP was analyzed via a binary logistic regression. Results: The 54% of players had developed LBP during the retrospective study period. Significant difference between LBP group and the asymptomatic group for HIR ROM (z=4.007, p<0.001) was observed. Difference between LBP group and asymptomatic group for HER ROM (z=1.117, p=0.264) was not significant. Players who had HIR ROM deficit had an increased risk of LBP compared with players without HIR ROM deficit (OR=5.344, 95%CI: 1.006-28.395, P=0.049). Conclusion: HIR ROM of a table tennis player with LBP was less than a table tennis player without LBP. Compared with player whose HIR ROM was normal, player who had HIR ROM deficit appeared to have a higher risk for LBP.

Keywords: assessment, injury prevention, low back pain, table tennis players

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Authors: Rahy Farooq, Maria Ahmad Khan, Ayesha Isani Majeed

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Objective: The main aim of this research is to assess the knowledge, attitude and practices of female nursing staff and nursing students regarding breast cancer, to provide a baseline for monitoring trends of breast cancer awareness in them. Background: Healthcare professionals are a direct source of information for the patients and the general public as a whole. It is, therefore, essential that the information they convey be accurate and helps in building additional awareness. However, clinical experience does not influence the knowledge, attitude and practices regarding breast cancer. Nurses, being the prime part of the healthcare professionals, play a significant role and hence, their awareness regarding this pressing issue is pertinent. Lack of awareness regarding common presenting symptoms or breast cancer risk factors translates to poor breast cancer screening practices and late diagnosis. Methodology: A cross-sectional study of 280 female nurses was conducted at a tertiary care hospital in Islamabad, Pakistan. A pre-tested structured questionnaire with additional variables like cultural barriers to seeking medical help was used. The scores for outcome variables including knowledge, attitude and practices were pre-defined. Data was analyzed using SPSSv23. Results: Of the 280 participants with a mean age of 28.99±9.98 years, 142 (50.7%) were married, and 138 (49.3%) were unmarried. Mean scores were computed to be 6.14±2.93 (out of 12), 0.30±0.7 (out of 3) and 9.53±1.92 (out of 16) for knowledge, attitude and practice respectively. Using independent sample T-test, a statistically significant correlation was found when means for the score of Attitude was compared with age. With a p-value of 0.018, 117 nurses of age more than 30 years, faced more practical, financial, emotional and service barriers as compared to 163 women younger than 30 years of age. Knowledge of age-related lifetime risks was also significantly poor more in single women; with a p-value of 0.006 for identification of correct age as a risk factor and a p-value of 0.005 for correct identification of risk for development of breast cancer in the lifetime of women. By application of Chi-square test, there was a significant correlation between marital status and cultural barriers to seeking medical help, showing that single women (58.7%) shy away from talking about breast cancer considering it a taboo (p-value 0.028) whereas, more married nurses (59.2%) were apprehensive that they might be considered at fault by the society, as compared to 40.8% of single nurses. (p-value 0.038). Conclusion: Owing to the scarcity of awareness among nurses, this study recognizes the need for delivering effective information to the female nurses regarding breast cancer. Educating patients is likely to be effective if the female nurses play their part and have correct attitudes towards breast cancer practices. A better understanding of the knowledge and practices regarding breast cancer among the nursing population will enable high-risk patients to be recognized early. Therefore, we recommend arrangement of special courses and seminars for all healthcare professionals including the nursing staff.

Keywords: breast cancer, cultural barriers, kap, nurses

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Authors: Joseph F. Cabrera, Rachael Dela Cruz

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This study specifically examines patterns that define ethnoracially diverse neighborhoods. Ethnoracial diversity is important as it facilitates cross-racial interactions within neighborhoods which have been theorized to be associated with such outcomes as intergroup harmony, the reduction of racial and ethnic prejudice and discrimination, and increases in racial tolerance. Los Angeles (LA) is an ideal location to study ethnoracial spatial patterns as it is one of the most ethnoracially diverse cities in the world. A large influx of Latinos, as well as Asians, have contributed to LA’s urban landscape becoming increasingly diverse over several decades. Our dataset contains all census tracts in Los Angeles County in 2016 and incorporates Census and ACS demographic and spatial data. We quantify ethnoracial diversity using a derivative of Simpson’s Diversity Index and utilize this measure to test previous literature that suggests Latinos are one of the key drivers of changing ethnoracial spatial patterns in Los Angeles. Preliminary results suggest that there has been an overall increase in ethnoracial diversity in Los Angeles neighborhoods over the past sixteen years. Patterns associated with this trend include decreases in predominantly white and black neighborhoods, increases in predominantly Latino and Asian neighborhoods, and a general decrease in the white populations of the most diverse neighborhoods. A similar pattern is seen in neighborhoods with large Latino increases- a decrease in white population, but with an increase in Asian and black populations. We also found support for previous research that suggests increases in Latino and Asian populations act as a buffer, allowing for black population increases without a sizeable decrease in the white population. Future research is needed to understand the underlying causes involved in many of the patterns and trends highlighted in this study.

Keywords: race, race and interaction, racial harmony, social interaction

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Authors: Ahmed Elwaleed, Huiho Jeong, Ali H. Abdelbagi, Nguyen Thi Quynh, Koji Arizono, Yasuhiro Ishibashi

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Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) poses substantial risks to both human health and the environment, particularly through contamination of soil, water, and air. Prolonged exposure to ASGM-contaminated soils can lead to acute or chronic mercury toxicity. This study assesses the human health risks associated with mercury-contaminated soils and tailings in the Alebediah mining community in Sudan. Soil samples were collected from various locations within Alebediah, including ASGM areas, farmlands, and residential areas, along with tailings samples commonly found within ASGM sites. The evaluation of potential health risks to humans included the computation of the estimated daily intake (AvDI), the hazard quotient (HQ), and the hazard index (HI) for both adults and children. The primary exposure route identified as potentially posing a significant health risk was the volatilization of mercury from tailings samples, where mercury concentrations reached up to 25.5 mg/kg. In contrast, other samples within the ASGM area showed elevated mercury levels but did not present significant health risks, with HI values below 1. However, all areas indicated HI values above 1 for the remaining exposure routes. The study observed a decrease in mercury concentration with increasing distance from the ASGM community. Additionally, soil samples revealed elevated mercury levels exceeding background values, prompting an assessment of contamination levels using the enrichment factor (EF). The findings indicated that farmlands and residential areas exhibited depleted EF, while areas surrounding the ASGM community showed none to moderate pollution. In contrast, ASGM areas exhibited significant to extreme pollution. A GIS map was generated to visually depict the extent of mercury pollution, facilitating communication with stakeholders and decision-makers.

Keywords: mercury pollution, artisanal and small-scale gold mining, health risk assessment, hazard index, soil and tailings, enrichment factor

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Authors: Charles Bijjah Nkhata, Memory Nekati Mvula, Milton Masautso Kalongonda, Martha Masamba, Isaac Thom Shawa

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Viral Hepatitis is a serious public health concern globally with deaths estimated at 1.4 million annually due to liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Hepatitis B and C are the most common viruses that cause liver damage. However, the majority of infected individuals are unaware of their serostatus. Viral Hepatitis has contributed to maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality. There is no updated data on the Epidemiology of hepatitis B and C among pregnant mothers in Malawi. To assess the epidemiology of Hepatitis B and C viruses among pregnant women at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital. Specific Objectives • To determine sero-prevalence of HBsAg and Anti-HCV in pregnant women at QECH. • To investigate risk factors associated with HBV and HCV infection in pregnant women. • To determine the distribution of HBsAg and Anti-HCV infection among pregnant women of different age group. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted among pregnant women at QECH in last quarter of 2021. Of the 114 pregnant women, 96 participants were consented and enrolled using a convenient sampling technique. 12 participants were dropped due to various reasons; therefore 84 completed the study. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect socio-demographic and behavior characteristics to assess the risk of exposure. Serum was processed from venous blood samples and tested for HBsAg and Anti-HCV markers utilizing Rapid screening assays for screening and Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay for confirmatory. A total of 84 pregnant consenting pregnant women participated in the study, with 1.2% (n=1/84) testing positive for HBsAg and nobody had detectable anti-HCV antibodies. There was no significant link between HBV and HCV in any of the socio-demographic data or putative risk variables. The findings indicate a viral hepatitis prevalence lower than the set range by the WHO. This suggests that HBV and HCV are rare in pregnant women at QECH. Nevertheless, accessible screening for all pregnant women should be provided. The prevention of MTCT is key for reduction and prevention of the global burden of chronic viral Hepatitis.

Keywords: viral hepatitis, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, pregnancy, malawi, liver disease, mother to child transmission

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Authors: Akbar Haghzadeh Saraskanroud, Amir Hossein Yahyavi Zanjani, Niloofar Kargar, Hanieh Ahrabi

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Cervical cancer refers to an unusual growth of cells in the cervix. The cervix is the lower part of the uterus, which connects to the vagina. Various risk factors such as human papillomavirus (HPV), having a weakened immune system, smoking or breathing in secondhand smoke, reproductive factors, and obesity play important roles in causing most cervical cancers. When cervical cancer happens, surgery is often the first treatment option to remove it. Other treatments might include chemotherapy and targeted therapy medicines. Radiation therapy with high-energy photon beams also may be used. Sometimes combined treatment, including radiation with low-dose chemotherapy, was applied. Intracavitary brachytherapy is an integral part of radiotherapy for locally advanced gynecologic malignancies such as cervical cancer. In the treatment of cervical cancer, there are different tools for doing brachytherapy. Two combinations of different applicators for this purpose are Tandem and Ovoid and Tandem and Ring. This study evaluated the dose differences between these two methods in the organs at risk of the rectum, sigmoid, and bladder. In this study, the treatment planswere simulated by the Oncentra treatment planning system and Tandem, Ovid, and Rings of different sizes. CT scan images of 23 patients were treated with HDR_BT Elekta Flexitron system were used for this study. Contouring of HR-CTV, rectum and bladder was performed for all patients. Then, the received dose of 0.1 and 0.2cc volumes of organs at risk were obtained and compared for these two methods: T-Ovoid and T-Ring. By doing investigations and dose measurements of points A and B and the volumes specified by ICRU, it seems that when comparing ring and ovoid to tandem and ovoid, the total dose to the rectum was lower by about 11%, and the bladder was 7%. In the case of HR CTV, this comparison showed that this ratio is about 7% better. Figure 1 shows the amount of decrease in rectum dose in the T-Ring method compared to T-Ovoid. Figure 2 indicates the amount of decrease in bladder dose in the T-Ring method compared to T-Ovoid. Finally, figure 3 illustrates the amount of HR-CTV coverage in the T-Ring method compared to the T-Ovoid.

Keywords: cervical cancer, brachytherapy, rectum, tandem and ovoid, tandem and ring.

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Authors: A. Alyami, S. Christmas, K. Neeltje, G. Pollakis, B. Paxton, Z. Al-Bayati

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The Human leukocyte antigen-G (HLA-G) molecule plays an important role in immunomodulation. To date, 16 untranslated regions (UTR) HLA-G haplotypes have been previously defined by sequenced SNPs in the coding region. From these, UTR-1, UTR-2, UTR-3, UTR-4, UTR-5, UTR-6 and UTR-7 are the most frequent 3’UTR haplotypes at the global level. UTR-1 is associated with higher levels of soluble HLA-G and HLA-G expression, whereas UTR-5 and UTR-7 are linked with low levels of soluble HLA-G and HLA-G expression. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection results in the progressive loss of immune function in infected individuals. The virus escape mechanism typically includes T lymphocytes and NK cell recognition and lyses by classical HLA-A and B down-regulation, which has been associated with non-classical HLA-G molecule up-regulation, respectively. We evaluated the haplotypes of the HLA-G 3′ untranslated region frequencies observed in three HIV-1 groups from the Netherlands and their susceptibility to develop infection. The three groups are made up of mainly men who have sex with men (MSM), injection drug users (IDU) and a high-risk-seronegative (HRSN) group. DNA samples were amplified with published primers prior sequencing. According to our results, the low expresser frequencies show higher in HRSN compared to other groups. This is indicating that 3’UTR polymorphisms may be identified as potential prognostic biomarkers to determine susceptibility to HIV.

Keywords: Human leukocyte antigen-G (HLA-G) , men who have sex with men (MSM), injection drug users (IDU), high-risk-seronegative (HRSN) group, high-untranslated region (UTR)

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Authors: Oman Sukmana

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Geographically, Indonesia appears to be disaster-prone areas, whether for natural, nonnatural (man-made), or social disasters. This study aimed to construct the knowledge and social wisdom on the local community in the process of disaster management after the eruption of Mt. Kelud. This study, moreover, encompassed two major concerns: (1) the construction of knowledge and social wisdom on the local community in the process of disaster management after the eruption of Mt. Kelud; (2) the conceptual framework of disaster management on the basis of knowledge and social wisdom on the local community. The study was conducted by means of qualitative approach. The data were analyzed by using the qualitative-descriptive technique. The data collection techniques used in this study were in-depth interview, focus group discussion, observation, and documentation. It was conducted at Pandansari Village, Sub-district Ngantang, District Malang as the most at risk area of Mt. Kelud’s eruption. The purposive sampling was applied ad hoc to select the respondents including: the apparatus of Pandansari Village, the local figures of Pandansari Village, the Chief and Boards of the Forum of Disaster Risk Reduction (FPRB), the Head of Malang Regional Disaster Management Agency, and other agencies. The findings of this study showed that the local community has already possessed the adequate knowledge and social wisdom to overcome the disaster. Through the social wisdom, the local community could predict the potential eruption.

Keywords: knowledge, social and local wisdom, disaster management

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Authors: Mdluli Fezile, Schmidt Stefan, Thamaga-Chitja Joyce

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In view of the frequently reported foodborne disease outbreaks caused by contaminated fresh produce, consumers have a preference for foods that meet requisite hygiene standards to reduce the risk of foodborne illnesses. Producing good quality fresh produce then becomes critical in improving market access and food security, especially for small-scale farmers. Questions of hygiene and subsequent microbiological quality in the rural small-scale farming sector of South Africa are even more crucial, given the policy drive to develop small-scale farming as a measure for reinforcement of household food security and reduction of poverty. Farming practices and methods, throughout the fresh produce value chain, influence the quality of the final product, which in turn determines its success in the market. This study’s aim was to therefore determine the extent to which training on organic farming methods, including modules such as Importance of Production Hygiene, influenced the hygienic farming practices employed by eTholeni small-scale organic farmers in uMbumbulu, KwaZulu-Natal- South Africa. Questionnaires were administered to 73 uncertified organic farmers and analysis showed that a total of 33 farmers were trained and supplied the local Agri-Hub while 40 had not received training. The questionnaire probed respondents’ attitudes, knowledge of hygiene and composting practices. Data analysis included descriptive statistics such as the Chi-square test and a logistic regression model. Descriptive analysis indicated that a majority of the farmers (60%) were female, most of which (73%) were above the age of 40. The logistic regression indicated that factors such as farmer training and prior experience in the farming sector had a significant influence on hygiene practices both at 5% significance levels. These results emphasize the importance of training, education and farming experience in implementing good hygiene practices in small-scale farming. It is therefore recommended that South African policies should advocate for small-scale farmer training, not only for subsistence purposes, but also with an aim of supplying produce markets with high fresh produce.

Keywords: small-scale farmers, leafy salad vegetables, organic produce, food safety, hygienic practices, food security

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Authors: Giorgi Bregadze

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Tourism is the most viable and sustainable economic development option for Georgia and one of the main sources of foreign exchange earnings. Events are considered as one of the most effective ways to attract foreign visitors to the country, and, recently, the government of Georgia has begun investing in this sector very actively. This article stresses the necessity of research based economic policy in the tourism sector. In this regard, it is of paramount importance to measure the economic effects of the events which are subsidized by taxpayers’ money. The economic effect of events can be analyzed from two perspectives; financial perspective of the government and perspective of economic effects of the tourism administration. The article emphasizes more realistic and all-inclusive focus of the economic effect analysis of the tourism administration as it concentrates on the income of residents and local businesses, part of which generate tax revenues for the government. The public would like to know what the economic returns to investment are. In this article, the methodology used to describe the economic effects of UEFA Super Cup held in Tbilisi, will help to answer this question. Methodology is based on three main principles and covers three stages. Using the suggested methodology article estimates the direct economic effect of UEFA Super cup on Georgian economy. Although the attempt to make an economic effect analysis of the event was successful in Georgia, some obstacles and insufficiencies were identified during the survey. The article offers several recommendations that will help to refine methodology and improve the accuracy of the data. Furthermore, it is very important to receive the correct standard of measurement of events in Georgia. In this caseü non-ethical acts of measurement which are widely utilized by different research companies will not trigger others to show overestimated effects. It is worth mentioning that to author’s best knowledge, this is the first attempt to measure the economic effect of an event held in Georgia.

Keywords: biased economic effect analysis, expenditure of local citizens, time switchers and casuals, UEFA super cup

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety-critical incident to raise awareness of biases in the systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors, and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the methodology used to model and analyze the safety-critical incident. The SIRI methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the management oversight and risk tree technique. The benefits of the systems for investigation of railway interfaces methodology (SIRI) are threefold: first is that it incorporates the “Heuristics and Biases” approach advanced by 2002 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, Prof Daniel Kahneman, in the management oversight and risk tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of the role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling techniques. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organizational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signaling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons are learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner's and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision-making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 systems engineering standard and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and artificial intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach

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Authors: Sai Hung Cheung, Zhe Shao

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Recent earthquake-induced tsunamis in Padang, 2004 and Tohoku, 2011 brought huge losses of lives and properties. Maintaining vertical evacuation systems is the most crucial strategy to effectively reduce casualty during the tsunami event. Thus, it is of our great interest to quantify the risk to structural dynamic systems due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. Despite continuous advancement in computational simulation of the tsunami and wave-structure interaction modeling, it still remains computationally challenging to evaluate the reliability (or its complement failure probability) of a structural dynamic system when uncertainties related to the system and its modeling are taken into account. The failure of the structure in a tsunami-wave-structural system is defined as any response quantities of the system exceeding specified thresholds during the time when the structure is subjected to dynamic wave impact due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. In this paper, an approach based on a novel integration of the Subset Simulation algorithm and a recently proposed moving least squares response surface approach for stochastic sampling is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing its results with those obtained from the Subset Simulation algorithm without using the response surface approach.

Keywords: response surface model, subset simulation, structural reliability, Tsunami risk

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Authors: Grace O. Akinlade, Danjuma D. Maza, Oluwakemi O. Olawolu, Delight O. Babalola, John A. O. Oyekunle, Joshua O. Ojo

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The Mokuro area of Ile-Ife, South West Nigeria, was well known for gold mining in the past (about twenty years ago). However, the place has since been reclaimed and converted to residential area without any environmental risk assessment of the impact of the mining tailings on the environment. Soil, water, and plant samples were collected from 4 different locations around the mine-turned-residential area. Soil samples were pulverized and sieved into finer particles, while the plant samples were dried and pulverized. All the samples were digested and analyzed for As, Pb, Cd, and Zn using atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS). From the analysis results, the hazard index (HI) was then calculated for the metals. The soil and plant samples were air dried and pulverized, then weighed, after which the samples were packed into special and properly sealed containers to prevent radon gas leakage. After the sealing, the samples were kept for 28 days to attain secular equilibrium. The concentrations of 40K, 238U, and 232Th in the samples were measured using a cesium iodide (CsI) spectrometer and URSA software. The AAS analysis showed that As, Pb, Cd (Toxic metals), and Zn (essential trace metals) are in concentrations lower than permissible limits in plants and soil samples, while the water samples had concentrations higher than permissible limits. The calculated health indices (HI) show that HI for water is >1 and that of plants and soil is <1. Gamma spectrometry result shows high levels of activity concentrations above the recommended limits for all the soil and plant samples collected from the area. Only the water samples have activity concentrations below the recommended limit. Consequently, the absorbed dose, annual effective dose, and excess lifetime cancer risk are all above the recommended safe limit for all the samples except for water samples. In conclusion, all the samples collected from the area are either contaminated with toxic metals or they pose radiological hazards to the consumers. Further detailed study is therefore recommended in order to be able to advise the residents appropriately.

Keywords: toxic metals, gamma spectrometry, Ile-Ife, radiological hazards, gold mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Prakash Singh

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The focus of this exploratory study is on whether teachers demonstrate emphatic concern for their learners in planning, implementing and assessing learning outcomes in their regular classrooms. Empathy must be shown to all learners equally and not only for high-risk learners at the expense of other ability learners. Empathy demonstrated by teachers allows them to build a stronger bond with all their learners. This bond based on trust leads to positive outcomes for learners to be able to excel in their work. Empathic teachers must make every effort to simplify the subject matter for high risk learners so that these learners not only enjoy their learning activities but are also successful like their more able peers. A total of 87.5% of the participants agreed that empathy allows teachers to demonstrate humanistic values in their choice of learning materials for learners of different abilities. It is therefore important for teachers to select content and instructional materials that will contribute to the learners’ success in the mainstream of education. It is also imperative for teachers to demonstrate empathic skills and consequently, to be attuned to the emotions and emotional needs of their learners. Schools need to be reformed, not by simply lengthening the school day or by simply adding more content in the curriculum, but by making school more satisfying to learners. This must be consistent with their diverse learning needs and interests so that they gain a sense of power, fulfillment, and importance in their regular classrooms. Hence, teacher - pupil relationships based on empathic concern for the latter’s educational needs lays the foundation for quality education to be offered.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, empathy, learners’ emotional needs, teachers’ empathic skills

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Authors: Valerii Dashuk

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The usage of the confidence intervals in economics and econometrics is widespread. To be able to investigate a random variable more thoroughly, joint tests are applied. One of such examples is joint mean-variance test. A new approach for testing such hypotheses and constructing confidence sets is introduced. Exploring both the value of the random variable and its deviation with the help of this technique allows checking simultaneously the shift and the probability of that shift (i.e., portfolio risks). Another application is based on the normal distribution, which is fully defined by mean and variance, therefore could be tested using the introduced approach. This method is based on the difference of probability density functions. The starting point is two sets of normal distribution parameters that should be compared (whether they may be considered as identical with given significance level). Then the absolute difference in probabilities at each 'point' of the domain of these distributions is calculated. This measure is transformed to a function of cumulative distribution functions and compared to the critical values. Critical values table was designed from the simulations. The approach was compared with the other techniques for the univariate case. It differs qualitatively and quantitatively in easiness of implementation, computation speed, accuracy of the critical region (theoretical vs. real significance level). Stable results when working with outliers and non-normal distributions, as well as scaling possibilities, are also strong sides of the method. The main advantage of this approach is the possibility to extend it to infinite-dimension case, which was not possible in the most of the previous works. At the moment expansion to 2-dimensional state is done and it allows to test jointly up to 5 parameters. Therefore the derived technique is equivalent to classic tests in standard situations but gives more efficient alternatives in nonstandard problems and on big amounts of data.

Keywords: confidence set, cumulative distribution function, hypotheses testing, normal distribution, probability density function

Procedia PDF Downloads 172