Search results for: bounded rationality

Authors: Joseph Ignagni, Rebecca Deen

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In this study, the decision making of the Justices of the United States Supreme Court will be considered in terms of constrained maximization and cognitive-cybernetic theory. This paper will integrate research in such fields as law, psychology, political science, economics and decision-making theory. It will be argued that due to its heavy workload, the Supreme Court may be forced to make decisions in a boundedly rational manner. The ideas and theory put forward here will be considered in the area of the Court’s decisions involving religion. Therefore, the cases involving the U.S. Constitution’s Free Exercise Clause and Establishment Clause will be analyzed.

Keywords: bounded rationality, cognitive-cybernetic, US supreme court, religion

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Authors: Sima Hassankhali, Ildar Sadeqi

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In the theory of Pareto efficient points, the existence of a bounded base for a cone K of a normed space X is so important. In this article, we study the geometric structure of a nonzero closed convex cone K with a bounded base. For this aim, we study the structure of the polar cone K# of K. Furthermore, we obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for a nonempty closed convex set C so that its recession cone C∞ has a bounded base.

Keywords: solid cones, recession cones, polar cones, bounded base

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Authors: Craig A. Kaplan

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If AGI proves to be a “winner-take-all” scenario where the first company or country to develop AGI dominates, then the first AGI must also be the safest. The safest, and fastest, path to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) may be to harness the collective intelligence of multiple AI and human agents in an AGI network. This approach has roots in seminal ideas from four of the scientists who founded the field of Artificial Intelligence: Allen Newell, Marvin Minsky, Claude Shannon, and Herbert Simon. Extrapolating key insights from these founders of AI, and combining them with the work of modern researchers, results in a fast and safe path to AGI. The seminal ideas discussed are: 1) Society of Mind (Minsky), 2) Information Theory (Shannon), 3) Problem Solving Theory (Newell & Simon), and 4) Bounded Rationality (Simon). Society of Mind describes a collective intelligence approach that can be used with AI and human agents to create an AGI network. Information theory helps address the critical issue of how an AGI system will increase its intelligence over time. Problem Solving Theory provides a universal framework that AI and human agents can use to communicate efficiently, effectively, and safely. Bounded Rationality helps us better understand not only the capabilities of SuperIntelligent AGI but also how humans can remain relevant in a world where the intelligence of AGI vastly exceeds that of its human creators. Each key idea can be combined with recent work in the fields of Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Large Language Models to accelerate the development of a working, safe, AGI system.

Keywords: AI Agents, Collective Intelligence, Minsky, Newell, Shannon, Simon, AGI, AGI Safety

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Authors: Jixiang Zhang

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A dynamic of Bertrand duopoly game is analyzed, where players use different production methods and choose their prices with bounded rationality. The equilibriums of the corresponding discrete dynamical systems are investigated. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability of Nash equilibrium, as some parameters of the model are varied, gives rise to complex dynamics such as cycles of higher order and chaos. On this basis, we discover that an increase of adjustment speed of bounded rational player can make Bertrand market sink into the chaotic state. Finally, the complex dynamics, bifurcations and chaos are displayed by numerical simulation.

Keywords: Bertrand duopoly model, discrete dynamical system, heterogeneous expectations, nash equilibrium

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Authors: Deyu Zhou, Xiao Xue, Lizhen Cui

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With the increasing collaboration among various services and the growing complexity of user demands, there are more and more factors affecting the stable development of the cloud manufacturing service economic system (CMSE). This poses new challenges to the evolution analysis of the CMSE. Many researchers have modeled and analyzed the evolution process of CMSE from the perspectives of individual learning and internal factors influencing the system, but without considering other important characteristics of the system's individuals (such as heterogeneity, bounded rationality, etc.) and the impact of external environmental factors. Therefore, this paper proposes an integrated artificial social model for the cloud manufacturing service economic system, which considers both the characteristics of the system's individuals and the internal and external influencing factors of the system. The model consists of three parts: the Agent model, environment model, and rules model (Agent-Environment-Rules, AER): (1) the Agent model considers important features of the individuals, such as heterogeneity and bounded rationality, based on the adaptive behavior mechanisms of perception, action, and decision-making; (2) the environment model describes the activity space of the individuals (real or virtual environment); (3) the rules model, as the driving force of system evolution, describes the mechanism of the entire system's operation and evolution. Finally, this paper verifies the effectiveness of the AER model through computational and experimental results.

Keywords: cloud manufacturing service economic system (CMSE), AER model, artificial social modeling, integrated framework, computing experiment, agent-based modeling, social networks

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Authors: Jixiang Zhang, Yanhua Wang

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A dynamic of Bertrand duopoly game is analyzed, where players use different production methods and choose their prices with bounded rationality. The equilibriums of the corresponding discrete dynamical systems are investigated. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability conditions of Nash equilibrium under a local adjustment process are studied. The stability of Nash equilibrium, as some parameters of the model are varied, gives rise to complex dynamics such as cycles of higher order and chaos. On this basis, we discover that an increase of adjustment speed of bounded rational player can make Bertrand market sink into the chaotic state. Finally, the complex dynamics, bifurcations and chaos are displayed by numerical simulation.

Keywords: Bertrand duopoly model, discrete dynamical system, heterogeneous expectations, nash equilibrium

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Authors: Jan Franciszek Jacko

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This investigation presents the principle of methodological rationality of decision making and discusses the impact of an organisation's members' methodologically rational or irrational decisions on its security. This study formulates and partially justifies some research hypotheses regarding the impact. The thinking experiment is used according to Max Weber's ideal types method. Two idealised situations("models") are compared: Model A, whereall decision-makers follow methodologically rational decision-making procedures. Model B, in which these agents follow methodologically irrational decision-making practices. Analysing and comparing the two models will allow the formulation of some research hypotheses regarding the impact of methodologically rational and irrational attitudes of members of an organisation on its security. In addition to the method, phenomenological analyses of rationality and irrationality are applied.

Keywords: methodological rationality, rational decisions, security of organisations, philosophy of economics

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Authors: Mónica Catarina Soares

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Neoliberal rationality is currently changing the ways concepts like freedom or equality are framed. As an omnipresent and context-sensitive paradigm, homo oeconomicus is continuously taking place in realms of life previously insulated from economic and market-driven principles. This presentation is based on the argument that, more than ever, this paradigm is nowadays framing institutional and everyday discourses in regard to social problems. Although neoliberal rationality is based on the putative ideological basis that everyone is equal, equality seems to be reshaped by specific meanings apprehended by this rationality. In this sense, an illusion of equality seems to be relevant to legitimize different social inequalities (e.g., access to health care or to habitation). Political psychology has studied how ideology is relevant to legitimize market and unequal systems, but still the specific relation between markets, (in)equality and neoliberal languages is not widely addressed. The goal is to discuss the smithereens of the neoliberal rationality when it comes to legitimizing social inequalities by contesting the arguments of meritocracy, progressive freedom and minimal guarantees obeying to market-rules and principles. This analysis can be helpful to grasp for instance the continuously dismantlement of the welfare-state in different countries of the global north and how it is turning the regulation/emancipation tension inside out. The ultimate goal is to contribute to the breaking up of a paradigm that is still too big to capture, too depoliticized and chameleonic to fully acknowledge the biopolitics of power that is helping to create it.

Keywords: discourses, legitimacy, neoliberal rationality, social inequality

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Authors: Jim S. Meng, Mammo H. Yewondwossen

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As a part of routine oesophageal HDR brachytherapy procedure, treatment planning takes about 45 minutes while patients are under light sedation. Some patients may suffer gagging and/or spasms, and the treatment may need to be aborted. A pre-prepared plan generated before the patient’s sedation may reduce the brachytherapy procedure time by forty minutes. This paper reports the rationality and evidence of pre-prepared treatment plans. A retrospective study of 28 patients confirm that all of the pre-prepared plans would be acceptable. The rationality of pre-prepared HDR brachytherapy plans is further confirmed by a systemic study with a wide range of applicator curvature and treatment volume. Detailed comparison between CT based treatment plans and pre-prepared plans are discussed. This argument holds also for endobronchial HDR brachytherapy. With the above evidence, pre-prepared plans have been used for all oesophagus and bronchus HDR brachytherapy cases in our clinic.

Keywords: HDR brachytherapy, treatment planning, oesophageal carcinoma, pre-planning

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Authors: Min Kyung An

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In this paper, we study the data collection problem in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) adopting the two interference models: The graph model and the more realistic physical interference model known as Signal-to-Interference-Noise-Ratio (SINR). The main issue of the problem is to compute schedules with the minimum number of timeslots, that is, to compute the minimum latency schedules, such that data from every node can be collected without any collision or interference to a sink node. While existing works studied the problem with unit-sized and unbounded-sized message models, we investigate the problem with the bounded-sized message model, and introduce a constant factor approximation algorithm. To the best known of our knowledge, our result is the first result of the data collection problem with bounded-sized model in both interference models.

Keywords: data collection, collision-free, interference-free, physical interference model, SINR, approximation, bounded-sized message model, wireless sensor networks

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Authors: Mohammad Sadeghi, Mahdieh Saniee

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Nowadays, development laws have become a major branch of engineering science, laws help humankind achieve his/her basic needs, and it is attracted to the attention of the nations. Therefore, lawyers have been invited to contemplate legislator's approaches respecting legislating countries' economic, social and cultural development plans and to observe the reliance of approaches on two elements of distributive justice and transitional justice in light of legal rationality. Legal rationality in development planning has encountered us with this question that whether a rational approach and existing models in the Iran development planning system approximate us to the goal of development laws respecting the rationalist approach and also regarding wisely decision-making model. The present study will investigate processes, approaches, and damages of development planning in the legislation of country development plans to answer this question.

Keywords: rationality, decision-making process, policymaking, development

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Authors: Abdullah Ali H. Ahmadini, Firoz Ahmad, Intekhab Alam

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Geometric programming problem (GPP) is a well-known non-linear optimization problem having a wide range of applications in many engineering problems. The structure of GPP is quite dynamic and easily fit to the various decision-making processes. The aim of this paper is to highlight the bounded solution method for GPP with special reference to variation among right-hand side parameters. Thus this paper is taken the advantage of two-level mathematical programming problems and determines the solution of the objective function in a specified interval called lower and upper bounds. The beauty of the proposed bounded solution method is that it does not require sensitivity analyses of the obtained optimal solution. The value of the objective function is directly calculated under varying parameters. To show the validity and applicability of the proposed method, a numerical example is presented. The system reliability optimization problem is also illustrated and found that the value of the objective function lies between the range of lower and upper bounds, respectively. At last, conclusions and future research are depicted based on the discussed work.

Keywords: varying parameters, geometric programming problem, bounded solution method, system reliability optimization

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Authors: Talal Alsulaiman, Khaldoun Khashanah

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In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The financial market system is a complex system where the relationship between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically. Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse assumption in the construction of agent's attributes. Also, the influence of social networks in the developing of agents’ interactions is addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based, and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized. These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning. In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts) of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.

Keywords: artificial stock markets, market dynamics, bounded rationality, agent based simulation, learning, interaction, social networks

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Authors: Henni Mansour Abdelwaheb

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This study discusses the design of a bounded position/force feedback controller developed to ensure position and force tracking for bilateral teleoperation arms operating with variable delay, and actuator saturation. Also, an adaptive robust Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network is used to estimate the environment torque. The parameters of the environment torque are then sent from the slave site to the master site as a non-power signal to avoid passivity problems. Moreover, a nonlinear function is applied to each controller term as a smooth saturation function, providing a bounded control signal and preserving the system’s actuators. Lastly, the Lyapunov approach demonstrates the global stability of the controlled system, and numerical experiment results further confirm the validity of the presented strategy.

Keywords: teleoperation manipulators system, time-varying delay, actuator saturation, adaptive robust rbf neural network approximation, uncertainties

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Authors: A. Bhandari, S. Mukherjee

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Two frames in a Hilbert space are called woven or weaving if all possible merge combinations between them generate frames of the Hilbert space with uniform frame bounds. Weaving frames are powerful tools in wireless sensor networks which require distributed data processing. Considering the practical applications, this article deals with finite woven frames. We provide methods of constructing finite woven frames, in particular, bounded linear operators are used to construct woven frames from a given frame. Several examples are discussed. We also introduce the notion of woven frame sequences and characterize them through the concepts of gaps and angles between spaces.

Keywords: frames, woven frames, gap, angle

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Authors: Chinh Phuong Do

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Dynamic analysis of slope under seismic condition requires the elimination of spurious reflection at the bounded domain. This paper studies the performances of wave transmitting boundaries, including the standard viscous boundary and the viscoelastic boundary to the material point method (MPM) framework. First, analytical derivations of these non-reflecting conditions particularly to the implicit MPM are presented. Then, a number of benchmark and geotechnical examples will be shown. Overall, the results agree well with analytical solutions, indicating the ability to accurately simulate the radiation at the bounded domain.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, implicit, MPM, non-reflecting boundary

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Authors: Jan Van Uden

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The paper reviews classical agency-theory and its contributions to the analysis of complex business negotiations and gives an approach for the modification of the basic agency-model in order to examine the negotiation specific dimensions of agency-problems. By illustrating fundamental potentials for the modification of agency-theory in context of business negotiations the paper highlights recent empirical research that investigates agent-based negotiations and inter-team constellations. A general theoretical analysis of complex negotiation would be based on a two-level approach. First, the modification of the basic agency-model in order to illustrate the organizational context of business negotiations (i.e., multi-agent issues, common-agencies, multi-period models and the concept of bounded rationality). Second, the application of the modified agency-model on complex business negotiations to identify agency-problems and relating areas of risk in the negotiation process. The paper is placed on the first level of analysis – the modification. The method builds on the one hand on insights from behavior decision research (BRD) and on the other hand on findings from agency-theory as normative directives to the modification of the basic model. Through neoclassical assumptions concerning the fundamental aspects of agency-relationships in business negotiations (i.e., asymmetric information, self-interest, risk preferences and conflict of interests), agency-theory helps to draw solutions on stated worst-case-scenarios taken from the daily negotiation routine. As agency-theory is the only universal approach able to identify trade-offs between certain aspects of economic cooperation, insights obtained provide a deeper understanding of the forces that shape business negotiation complexity. The need for a modification of the basic model is illustrated by highlighting selected issues of business negotiations from agency-theory perspective: Negotiation Teams require a multi-agent approach under the condition that often decision-makers as superior-agents are part of the team. The diversity of competences and decision-making authority is a phenomenon that overrides the assumptions of classical agency-theory and varies greatly in context of certain forms of business negotiations. Further, the basic model is bound to dyadic relationships preceded by the delegation of decision-making authority and builds on a contractual created (vertical) hierarchy. As a result, horizontal dynamics within the negotiation team playing an important role for negotiation success are therefore not considered in the investigation of agency-problems. Also, the trade-off between short-term relationships within the negotiation sphere and the long-term relationships of the corporate sphere calls for a multi-period perspective taking into account the sphere-specific governance-mechanisms already established (i.e., reward and monitoring systems). Within the analysis, the implementation of bounded rationality is closely related to findings from BRD to assess the impact of negotiation behavior on underlying principal-agent-relationships. As empirical findings show, the disclosure and reservation of information to the agent affect his negotiation behavior as well as final negotiation outcomes. Last, in context of business negotiations, asymmetric information is often intended by decision-makers acting as superior-agents or principals which calls for a bilateral risk-approach to agency-relations.

Keywords: business negotiations, agency-theory, negotiation analysis, interteam negotiations

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Authors: Myung-Gon Yoon, Jung-Ho Moon, Tae Kwon Ha

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This paper deals with a stabilization problem for multi-agent systems, when all agents in a multi-agent system receive the same broadcasting control signal and the controller can measure not each agent output but the sum of all agent outputs. It is analytically shown that when the sum of all agent outputs is bounded with a certain broadcasting controller for a given reference, each agent output is separately bounded:stabilization of the sum of agent outputs always results in the stability of every agent output. A numerical example is presented to illustrate our theoretic findings in this paper.

Keywords: broadcasting control, multi-agent system, transfer function, stabilization

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Authors: Hamideh Rahmani

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The subject matter of ethics is being changed in modern life, which had been an issue for a long time and aimed to define its moral boundaries in human's intellectual and everyday life. This has led to the introduction of notions based on the separation of religion from ethics in recent decades. It is in conflict with the traditional view, which introduces ethics as raised from religion and religion as the most crucial credit for ethics. The purpose of this study is to investigate the elements of secular ethics from the perspective of Mostafa Malekian, seeking to achieve his notions. After examining the strengths of secular ethics parameters from the viewpoint of Malekian, this research found his ethics in his interpretation of the ideal life which he treats as ethics, got a very strong link with his secularist project known as rationality and spirituality. We will analyze, review, and critique his ethics in the following.

Keywords: secular ethics, Mostafa Malakian, global ethics, rationality, spirituality

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Authors: Jing Zhang

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Sustainable development in the new energy vehicles field is the requirement of the net zero aim. Green bonds are accepted as a practical financial tool to boost the transformation of relevant enterprises. The paper analyzes the interactions among governments, enterprises of new energy vehicles, and financial institutions by an evolutionary game theory model and offers advice to stakeholders in China. The decision-making subjects of green behavior are affected by experiences, interests, perception ability, and risk preference, so it is difficult for them to be completely rational. Based on the bounded rationality hypothesis, this paper applies prospect theory in the evolutionary game analysis framework and analyses the costs of government regulation of enterprises adopting green bonds. The influence of the perceived value of revenue prospect and the probability and risk transfer coefficient of the government's active regulation on the decision-making agent's strategy is verified by numerical simulation. Finally, according to the research conclusions, policy suggestions are given to promote green bonds.

Keywords: green bonds, new energy vehicles, sustainable development, evolutionary Game Theory model

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Authors: S. Nagheli, N. Samani, D. A. Barry

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In this paper, the velocity potential and stream function of capture zone for a well field in an aquifer bounded by two parallel streams with or without a uniform regional flow of any directions are presented. The well field includes any number of extraction or injection wells or a combination of both types with any pumping rates. To delineate the capture envelope, the potential and streamlines equations are derived by conformal mapping method. This method can help us to release constrains of other methods. The equations can be applied as useful tools to design in-situ groundwater remediation systems, to evaluate the surface–subsurface water interaction and to manage the water resources.

Keywords: complex potential, conformal mapping, image well theory, Laplace’s equation, superposition principle

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Authors: Tien-Hui Chiang

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The code theory, proposed by Basil Bernstein, indicates that framing can be viewed as the core element in constituting the phenomenon of cultural reproduction because it is able to regulate the transmission of pedagogical information. Strong framing increases the social relation boundary between a teacher and pupils, which obstructs information transmission, so that in order to improve underachieving students’ academic performances, teachers need to reduce to strength of framing. Weak framing enables them to transform academic knowledge into commonsense knowledge in daily life language. This study posits that most teachers would deliver strong framing due to their belief mainly confined within the aspect of instrumental rationality that deprives their critical minds. This situation could make them view the normal distribution bell curve of students’ academic performances as a natural outcome. In order to examine the interplay between framing, instrumental rationality and pedagogical action, questionnaires were completed by over 5,000 primary school teachers in Henan province, China, who were stratified sample. The statistical results show that most teachers employed psychological concepts to measure students’ academic performances and, in turn, educational inequity was legitimatized as a natural outcome in the efficiency-led approach. Such efficiency-led minds made them perform as the agent practicing the mechanism of social control and in turn sustaining the phenomenon of cultural reproduction.

Keywords: code, cultural reproduction, framing, instrumental rationality, social relation and interaction

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Authors: H. Y. Jung, Ju H. Park, S. M. Lee

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A sampled-data controller is presented for solid oxide fuel cell systems which is expressed by a sector bounded nonlinear model. The sector bounded nonlinear systems, which have a feedback connection with a linear dynamical system and nonlinearity satisfying certain sector type constraints. Also, the sampled-data control scheme is very useful since it is possible to handle digital controller and increasing research efforts have been devoted to sampled-data control systems with the development of modern high-speed computers. The proposed control law is obtained by solving a convex problem satisfying several linear matrix inequalities. Simulation results are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed design method.

Keywords: sampled-data control, fuel cell, linear matrix inequalities, nonlinear control

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Authors: Marisa Almeida AraúJo

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Artificial intelligence (AI) tools are being used (including in the criminal justice system) and becomingincreasingly popular. The many questions that these (future) super-beings pose the neuralgic center is rooted in the (old) problematic between rationality and morality. For instance, if we follow a Kantian perspective in which morality derives from AI, rationality will also surpass man in ethical and moral standards, questioning the nature of mind, the conscience of self and others, and moral. The recognition of superior intelligence in a non-human being puts us in the contingency of having to recognize a pair in a form of new coexistence and social relationship. Just think of the humanoid robot Sophia, capable of reasoning and conversation (and who has been recognized for Saudi citizenship; a fact that symbolically demonstrates our empathy with the being). Machines having a more intelligent mind, and even, eventually, with higher ethical standards to which, in the alluded categorical imperative, we would have to subject ourselves under penalty of contradiction with the universal Kantian law. Recognizing the complex ethical and legal issues and the significant impact on human rights and democratic functioning itself is the goal of our work.

Keywords: ethics, artificial intelligence, legal rules, principles, philosophy

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Authors: Mert Turanli, Hakan Temeltas

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In this paper, we present an adaptive controller for decentralized coordination problem of multiple non-holonomic agents. The performance of the presented Multi-Agent Bounded Gain Forgetting (BGF) Composite Adaptive controller is compared against the tracking error criterion with a Feedback Linearization controller. By using the method, the sensor nodes move and reconfigure themselves in a coordinated way in response to a sensed environment. The multi-agent coordination is achieved through Centroidal Voronoi Tessellations and Coverage Control. Also, a consensus protocol is used for synchronization of the parameter vectors. The two controllers are given with their Lyapunov stability analysis and their stability is verified with simulation results. The simulations are carried out in MATLAB and ROS environments. Better performance is obtained with BGF Adaptive Controller.

Keywords: adaptive control, centroidal voronoi tessellations, composite adaptation, coordination, multi robots

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Authors: Greg Fetzer

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One of the fundamental tensions of creative work is between the need to be passionate and persistent in advancing novel and risky ideas and the need to be flexible, revising, or even abandoning ideas in favor of others. The tension becomes fraught in part because of the attachment that creators have toward their ideas. Idea attachment is defined here as a multifaceted concept referring to affection, passion, and connection toward a target—in this case, one’s projects or ideas. Yet feeling attached can make creators resistant to feedback, making them less flexible and leading them to escalate commitment. Despite a growing understanding of how attachment develops and evolves in response to project changes, feedback, and creative jolts, we still know relatively little about the organizational dynamics that may shape idea attachment. Through a qualitative, inductive study of early-stage R&D scientists in the pharmaceutical industry, this research finds that scientists develop bounded attachment, a mindset that limits emotional attachment to ideas while still fostering engagement in idea development. This research develops a process model of how bounded attachment is developed and enacted across three stages of the creative process, idea generation, idea evaluation, and outcome assessment, as well as the role that organizational practices and professional identity play in shaping this process: these collective practices provided structures to ensure ideas were evaluated in a rational (i.e. non-emotional way) while also providing socioemotional support in the face of setbacks. Together, this process led to continued creative engagement across ideas in a portfolio and helped scientists construct a sense of meaningful work despite a high likelihood (and frequency) of failure.

Keywords: creativity, innovation, organizational practices, qualitative, attachment

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Authors: Mulugeta Fola, Mengistu Ketema, Kumilachew Alamerie

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Watershed provides vast economic benefits within and beyond the management area of interest. But most watersheds in Ethiopia are increasingly facing the threats of degradation due to both natural and man-made causes. To reverse these problems, communities’ participation in sustainable management programs is among the necessary measures. Hence, this study assessed the households’ willingness to pay for watershed management practices through a contingent valuation study approach. Double bounded dichotomous choice with open-ended follow-up format was used to elicit the households’ willingness to pay. Based on data collected from 275 randomly selected households, descriptive statistics results indicated that most households (79.64%) were willing to pay for watershed management practices. A bivariate Probit model was employed to identify determinants of households’ willingness to pay and estimate mean willingness to pay. Its result shows that age, gender, income, livestock size, perception of watershed degradation, social position, and offered bids were important variables affecting willingness to pay for watershed management practices. The study also revealed that the mean willingness to pay for watershed management practices was calculated to be 58.41 Birr and 47.27 Birr per year from the double bounded and open-ended format, respectively. The study revealed that the aggregate welfare gains from watershed management practices were calculated to be 931581.09 Birr and 753909.23 Birr per year from double bounded dichotomous choice and open-ended format, respectively. Therefore, the policymakers should make households to pay for the services of watershed management practices in the study area.

Keywords: bivariate probit model, contingent valuation, watershed management practices, willingness to pay

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Authors: Tannaz Alizadeh Ashrafi

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Seasonal variability in biological and ecological factors together with relevant socio-economic determinants affect the choice of fishing gear, frequency of its usage and decision about gear conversion under multi-species situation. In order to deal with the complex dynamics of fisheries, fishers, constantly, have to make decisions about how long to fish, when to go fishing, what species to target, and which gear to deploy. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to examine the dynamics of gear/ species combination in Norwegian fishery. A comprehensive vessel-level set of data for the main economically important species including: cod, haddock, saithe, shrimp and mixed catch have been obtained from the Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries covering the daily data in 2010. The present study further analyzes the level of flexibility and rationality of the fishers operating in the trawl fishery. The results show the disproportion between intention of the trawl fishers to maximize profitability of each fishing trip and their harvesting behavior in reality. Discussion is based on so-called maximizing behavior.

Keywords: trawl fishery, gear substitution, rationality, profit maximizing behavior

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Authors: Cheng-Hao Jiang, Mu-Xuan Tao

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The rigid diaphragm model may cause errors in the calculation of internal forces due to neglecting the in-plane deformation of the diaphragm. This paper thus studies the effects of different diaphragm in-plane models (including in-plane rigid model and in-plane flexible model) on the seismic performance of structures. Taking an actual industrial plant as an example, the seismic performance of the structure is predicted using different floor diaphragm models, and the analysis errors caused by different diaphragm in-plane models including deformation error and internal force error are calculated. Furthermore, the influence of the aspect ratio on the analysis errors is investigated. Finally, the code rationality is evaluated by assessing the analysis errors of the structure models whose floors were determined as rigid according to the code’s criterion. It is found that different floor models may cause great differences in the distribution of structural internal forces, and the current code may underestimate the influence of the floor in-plane effect.

Keywords: industrial plant, diaphragm, calculating error, code rationality

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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Intertemporal choices are choices under conditions of uncertainty in which the consequences are distributed over time. The Discounted Utility Model is the essential reference for describing the individual in the context of intertemporal choice. The model is based on the idea that the individual selects the alternative with the highest utility, which is calculated by multiplying the cardinal utility of the outcome, as if the reception were instantaneous, by the discount function that determines a decrease in the utility value according to how the actual reception of the outcome is far away from the moment the choice is made. Initially, the discount function was assumed to have an exponential trend, whose decrease over time is constant, in line with a profile of a rational investor described by classical economics. Instead, empirical evidence called for the formulation of alternative, hyperbolic models that better represented the actual actions of the investor. Attitudes that do not comply with the principles of classical rationality are termed anomalous, i.e., difficult to rationalize and describe through normative models. The development of behavioral finance, which describes investor behavior through cognitive psychology, has shown that deviations from rationality are due to the limited rationality condition of human beings. What this means is that when a choice is made in a very difficult and information-rich environment, the brain does a compromise job between the cognitive effort required and the selection of an alternative. Moreover, the evaluation and selection phase of the alternative, the collection and processing of information, are dynamics conditioned by systematic distortions of the decision-making process that are the behavioral biases involving the individual's emotional and cognitive system. In this paper we present an original decomposition of the discount function to investigate the psychological principles of hyperbolic discounting. It is possible to decompose the curve into two components: the first component is responsible for the smaller decrease in the outcome as time increases and is related to the individual's impatience; the second component relates to the change in the direction of the tangent vector to the curve and indicates how much the individual perceives the indeterminacy of the future indicating his or her aversion to uncertainty. This decomposition allows interesting conclusions to be drawn with respect to the concept of impatience and the emotional drives involved in decision-making. The contribution that neuroscience can make to decision theory and inter-temporal choice theory is vast as it would allow the description of the decision-making process as the relationship between the individual's emotional and cognitive factors. Neurofinance is a discipline that uses a multidisciplinary approach to investigate how the brain influences decision-making. Indeed, considering that the decision-making process is linked to the activity of the prefrontal cortex and amygdala, neurofinance can help determine the extent to which abnormal attitudes respect the principles of rationality.

Keywords: impatience, intertemporal choice, neurofinance, rationality, uncertainty

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