Search results for: Eastern Ethiopia
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1487

Search results for: Eastern Ethiopia

1307 Caregivers Roles, Care Home Management, Funding and Administration in Challenged Communities: Focus in North Eastern Nigeria

Authors: Chukwuka Justus Iwegbu

Abstract:

Background: A major concern facing the world is providing senior citizens, individuals with disabilities, and other vulnerable groups with high-quality care. This issue is more serious in Nigeria's North Eastern area, where the burden of disease and disability is heavy, and access to care is constrained. This study aims to fill this gap by exploring the roles, challenges and support needs of caregivers, care home management, funding and administration in challenged communities in North Eastern Nigeria. The study will also provide a comprehensive understanding of the current situation and identify opportunities for improving the quality of care and support for caregivers and care recipients in these communities. Methods: A mixed-methods design, including both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods, will be used, and it will be guided by the stress process model of caregiving. The qualitative stage approach will comprise a survey, In-depth interviews, observations, and focus group discussion and the quantitative analysis will be used in order to comprehend the variations between caregiver's roles and care home management. A review of relevant documents, such as care home policies and funding reports, would be used to gather quantitative data on the administrative and financial aspects of care. The data collected will be analyzed using both descriptive statistics and thematic analysis. A sample size of around 200-300 participants, including caregivers, care recipients, care home managers and administrators, policymakers and health care providers, would be recruited. Findings: The study revealed that caregivers in challenged communities in North Eastern Nigeria face significant challenges, including lack of training and support, limited access to funding and resources, and high levels of burnout. Care home management and administration were also found to be inadequate, with a lack of clear policies and procedures and limited oversight and accountability. Conclusion: There is a need for increased investment in training and support for caregivers, as well as a need for improved care home management and administration in challenged communities in North Eastern Nigeria. It also highlights the importance of involving community members in decision-making and planning processes related to care homes and services. The study would contribute to the existing body of knowledge by providing a detailed understanding of the challenges faced by caregivers, care home managers and administrators.

Keywords: caregivers, care home management, funding, administration, challenge communities, North Eastern Nigeria

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1306 Exploring Challenges Faced by Small Business Owners on Poverty Reduction in Rural Eastern Cape, South Africa

Authors: Akinwale Olusola Mokayode, Emaanuel Adu, Seriki Idowu Ibrahim

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Small business can serve as a tool for poverty reduction in South Africa, but it requires adequate support and development for its continuous sustenance in spite of rigorous challenges, especially in the rural environment. This study explored the challenges faced by the small business owners in the rural Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. The objective of the study is to identify the challenges faced by small business owners in the case study area and to examine the effects of those challenges on poverty rate. Survey research design was adopted, with the distribution of structured questionnaire for data collection through a simple random sampling method. Descriptive and inferential statistics was used to analyse the data. Findings showed that small business owners face various challenges in their commercial operations. It was also made clearer that these challenges have effects on the poverty rate as well as crime rate. In conclusion, in other for small businesses to be effective instrument to tackle poverty, certain measure must be taken into considerations. This therefore necessitates recommendation from the researcher that potential and current business owners must seek valuable advice from the more experienced business tycoon and seek information about the business assistance programmes provided by government and private sectors.

Keywords: eastern cape, poverty, poverty reduction, rural, small business, sustainable livelihood

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1305 Petrography and Geochemistry of Basic Dokhan Volcanics from the Eastern Desert of Egypt and their Use as Aggregates in Concrete Mixes

Authors: Ahmed Khalil, Hatem M. El-Desoky

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The present paper deals with the petrography and geochemistry of the Basic Dokhan Volcanics, Eastern Desert, Egypt. The basalts from Gabal Wassif, Atalla volcanics and Gabal Esh Mellaha were tested for use as aggregates in concrete mixes. The representative twelve samples were collected from areas. These samples were examined by using a petrographic microscope to evaluate sample texture, degree of alteration and the presence of volcanic glass in the matrix. The results obtained indicate that basalt can be used successfully for preparing concrete, but some attention should be paid to the choice of the suitable types of basalt. A general improvement in concrete mix properties has been found by using basalt aggregates in the mix.

Keywords: basic Dokhan volcanics, petrography, geochemistry, petrogenesis and concrete aggregates

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1304 Natural Enemies of the Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda, Smith) and Comparing Neem Aqueous Extracts against Its Larvae in Gurage Zone, Central Ethiopia

Authors: Abera Hailu Degaga, Emana Getu Degaga

Abstract:

Spodoptera frugiperda is an invasive insect pest that infests and feeds various crops, particularly affecting maize yields. However, nature has its own way of maintaining balance, and in this case, natural enemies play a crucial role in regulating the population of S. frugiperda. Locally available and easily prepared botanical sources, bio-pesticides, are also important. The objectives of the study were to investigate the natural enemies of S. frugiperda in the Gurage zone and to compare Neem aqueous extracts against its larvae in central Ethiopia. S. frugiperda larvae and egg masses were collected randomly from smallholder maize farms infested with pests between June and August 2023. Our findings revealed the existence of diverse types of parasitoids, predators, and entomopathogenic fungi associated with S. frugiperda. Notably, we documented three species of parasitoids, namely Exorista xanthaspis and Tachina spp. (Diptera: Tachinidae) and Charops annulipes (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae). All three species of parasitoids were recorded from Ethiopia for the first time. The overall parasitism rate was 5.3%, with individual rates ranging from 1.3 to 4%. Additionally, we identified ten species of predator insects from four different orders, including Hemiptera, Dermaptera, Coleoptera, and Mantodea, in the maize farms infested with S. frugiperda. Aqueous extract of Neem seed and leaf powder and green leaf exhibited similar mortality rates of S. frugiperda larvae at 72 hours even though there was a significant difference at 24 and 48 hours of the test. For effective management of S. frugiperda further research is necessary to fully exploit the potential of these natural enemies and additionally to use botanical source pesticides like Azadirachta indica.

Keywords: bio-pesticide, natural enemy, parasitoids, predators, Tachinid flies

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1303 Recent Climate Variability and Crop Production in the Central Highlands of Ethiopia

Authors: Arragaw Alemayehu, Woldeamlak Bewket

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The aim of this study was to understand the influence of current climate variability on crop production in the central highlands of Ethiopia. We used monthly rainfall and temperature data from 132 points each representing a pixel of 10×10 km. The data are reconstructions based on station records and meteorological satellite observations. Production data of the five major crops in the area were collected from the Central Statistical Agency for the period 2004-2013 and for the main cropping season, locally known as Meher. The production data are at the Enumeration Area (EA ) level and hence the best available dataset on crop production. The results show statistically significant decreasing trends in March–May (Belg) rainfall in the area. However, June – September (Kiremt) rainfall showed increasing trends in Efratana Gidim and Menz Gera Meder which the latter is statistically significant. Annual rainfall also showed positive trends in the area except Basona Werana where significant negative trends were observed. On the other hand, maximum and minimum temperatures showed warming trends in the study area. Correlation results have shown that crop production and area of cultivation have positive correlation with rainfall, and negative with temperature. When the trends in crop production are investigated, most crops showed negative trends and below average production was observed. Regression results have shown that rainfall was the most important determinant of crop production in the area. It is concluded that current climate variability has a significant influence on crop production in the area and any unfavorable change in the local climate in the future will have serious implications for household level food security. Efforts to adapt to the ongoing climate change should begin from tackling the current climate variability and take a climate risk management approach.

Keywords: central highlands, climate variability, crop production, Ethiopia, regression, trend

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1302 Six Years Antimicrobial Resistance Trends among Bacterial Isolates in Amhara National Regional State, Ethiopia

Authors: Asrat Agalu Abejew

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Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a silent tsunami and one of the top global threats to health care and public health. It is one of the common agendas globally and in Ethiopia. Emerging AMR will be a double burden to Ethiopia, which is facing a series of problems from infectious disease morbidity and mortality. In Ethiopia, although there are attempts to document AMR in healthcare institutions, comprehensive and all-inclusive analysis is still lacking. Thus, this study is aimed to determine trends in AMR from 2016-2021. Methods: A retrospective analysis of secondary data recorded in the Amhara Public Health Institute (APHI) from 2016 to 2021 G.C was conducted. Blood, Urine, Stool, Swabs, Discharge, body effusions, and other Microbiological specimens were collected from each study participants, and Bacteria identification and Resistance tests were done using the standard microbiologic procedure. Data was extracted from excel in August 2022, Trends in AMR were analyzed, and the results were described. In addition, the chi-square (X2) test and binary logistic regression were used, and a P. value < 0.05 was used to determine a significant association. Results: During 6 years period, there were 25143 culture and susceptibility tests. Overall, 265 (46.2%) bacteria were resistant to 2-4 antibiotics, 253 (44.2%) to 5-7 antibiotics, and 56 (9.7%) to >=8 antibiotics. The gram-negative bacteria were 166 (43.9%), 155 (41.5%), and 55 (14.6%) resistant to 2-4, 5-7, and ≥8 antibiotics, respectively, whereas 99(50.8%), 96(49.2% and 1 (0.5%) of gram-positive bacteria were resistant to 2-4, 5-7 and ≥8 antibiotics respectively. K. pneumonia 3783 (15.67%) and E. coli 3199 (13.25%) were the most commonly isolated bacteria, and the overall prevalence of AMR was 2605 (59.9%), where K. pneumonia 743 (80.24%), E. cloacae 196 (74.81%), A. baumannii 213 (66.56%) being the most common resistant bacteria for antibiotics tested. Except for a slight decline during 2020 (6469 (25.4%)), the overall trend of AMR is rising from year to year, with a peak in 2019 (8480 (33.7%)) and in 2021 (7508 (29.9%). If left un-intervened, the trend in AMR will increase by 78% of variation from the study period, as explained by the differences in years (R2=0.7799). Ampicillin, Augmentin, ciprofloxacin, cotrimoxazole, tetracycline, and Tobramycin were almost resistant to common bacteria they were tested. Conclusion: AMR is linearly increasing during the last 6 years. If left as it is without appropriate intervention after 15 years (2030 E.C), AMR will increase by 338.7%. A growing number of multi-drug resistant bacteria is an alarm to awake policymakers and those who do have the concern to intervene before it is too late. This calls for a periodic, integrated, and continuous system to determine the prevalence of AMR in commonly used antibiotics.

Keywords: AMR, trend, pattern, MDR

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1301 Atmospheric Circulation Types Related to Dust Transport Episodes over Crete in the Eastern Mediterranean

Authors: K. Alafogiannis, E. E. Houssos, E. Anagnostou, G. Kouvarakis, N. Mihalopoulos, A. Fotiadi

Abstract:

The Mediterranean basin is an area where different aerosol types coexist, including urban/industrial, desert dust, biomass burning and marine particles. Particularly, mineral dust aerosols, mostly originated from North African deserts, significantly contribute to high aerosol loads above the Mediterranean. Dust transport, controlled by the variation of the atmospheric circulation throughout the year, results in a strong spatial and temporal variability of aerosol properties. In this study, the synoptic conditions which favor dust transport over the Eastern Mediterranean are thoroughly investigated. For this reason, three datasets are employed. Firstly, ground-based daily data of aerosol properties, namely Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT), Ångström exponent (α440-870) and fine fraction from the FORTH-AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) station along with measurements of PM10 concentrations from Finokalia station, for the period 2003-2011, are used to identify days with high coarse aerosol load (episodes) over Crete. Then, geopotential height at 1000, 850 and 700 hPa levels obtained from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project, are utilized to depict the atmospheric circulation during the identified episodes. Additionally, air-mass back trajectories, calculated by HYSPLIT, are used to verify the origin of aerosols from neighbouring deserts. For the 227 identified dust episodes, the statistical methods of Factor and Cluster Analysis are applied on the corresponding atmospheric circulation data to reveal the main types of the synoptic conditions favouring dust transport towards Crete (Eastern Mediterranean). The 227 cases are classified into 11 distinct types (clusters). Dust episodes in Eastern Mediterranean, are found to be more frequent (52%) in spring with a secondary maximum in autumn. The main characteristic of the atmospheric circulation associated with dust episodes, is the presence of a low-pressure system at surface, either in southwestern Europe or western/central Mediterranean, which induces a southerly air flow favouring dust transport from African deserts. The exact position and the intensity of the low-pressure system vary notably among clusters. More rarely dust may originate from deserts of Arabian Peninsula.

Keywords: aerosols, atmospheric circulation, dust particles, Eastern Mediterranean

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1300 Injury Characteristics and Outcome of Road Traffic Accident among Victims at Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Authors: Mohammed Seid, Aklilu Azazh, Fikre Enquselassie, Engida Yisma

Abstract:

Background: Road traffic injuries are the eighth leading cause of death globally, and the leading cause of death for young people. More than a million people die each year on the world’s roads, and the risk of dying as a result of a road traffic injury is highest in the Africa. Methods: A prospective hospital-based study was undertaken to assess injury characteristics and outcome of road traffic accident among victims at Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A structured pre-tested questionnaire was used to gather the required data. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS version 16.0. Results: A total of 230 road traffic accident victims were studied. The majority of the study subjects were men 165 (71.7%) and the male/female ratio was 2.6:1. The victims’ ages ranged from 14 to 80 years with the mean and standard deviations of 32.15 and ± 14.38 years respectively. Daily laborers (95 (41.3%)) and students (28 (12.2%)) were the majority of road traffic accident victims. Long-distance travelling Minibus (16.5%) was responsible for the majority of road traffic crash followed by followed by Taxi (14.8%) and pedestrians (62.6%) accounted for the majority of road traffic accident. Head (50.4%) and musculoskeletal (extremities) (47.0%) were the most common body region injured. Fractures (78.0%) and open wounds (56.5%) were the most common type of injuries sustained. Treatment of fracture was the most common procedure performed in 57.7 % of the victims. The overall length of hospital stay (LOS) ranged from 1 day to 61 days with mean (± standard deviation) of 7.12 ± 10.5 days and the mortality rate was 7.4 %. A significant higher proportion of victims aged 14-55 years were had less likelihood of death compared to those victims aged more than 55 years of age [Adjusted OR = 0.1 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.82)]. Conclusions: This study showed diverse injury characteristics and high morbidity and mortality among the victims attending Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The findings reflect that road traffic accident is a major public health problem. Urgent road traffic accident preventive measures and prompt treatment of the victims are warranted in order to reduce morbidity and mortality among the victims.

Keywords: road traffic accident, injury characteristics, outcome, Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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1299 Analysis of Trend and Variability of Rainfall in the Mid-Mahanadi River Basin of Eastern India

Authors: Rabindra K. Panda, Gurjeet Singh

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The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km2 and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km2 and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Keywords: Eastern India, long-term variability and trends, Mann-Kendall test, seasonality index, spatio-temporal variation

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1298 Spatial Variation of WRF Model Rainfall Prediction over Uganda

Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

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Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model

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1297 Following the Caravans: Interdisciplinary Study to Integrate Chinese and African Relations in Ethiopia

Authors: E. Mattio

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The aim of this project is to study the Chinese presence in Ethiopia, following the path of the last salt caravans from Danakil to Tigray region. Official estimates of the number of Chinese in Africa vary widely; on the continent, there are increasingly diverse groups of Chinese migrants in terms of language, dialect, class, education, and employment. Based on this and on a very general state of the art, it was decided to increase the studies on this phenomenon, documenting the extraction of salt and following the sellers in the north of the country. The project is unique and allows you to admire a landscape that will soon change, due to the construction of infrastructure that is changing the dynamics of movement and sales. To carry out this study, interdisciplinary investigation methods were integrated, such as landscape archeology, historiographic research, participatory anthropology, geopolitics, and cultural anthropology and ethnology. There are two main objectives of the research. The first was an analysis of risk perceptions to predict what will happen to these populations and how the territory will be modified, trying to monitor the growth of infrastructure in the country and the effects it will have on the population. Thanks to the use of GIS, some roads created by Chinese companies that worked in the area have been georeferenced. The second point was to document the life and rituals of Ethiopian populations, in order not to lose the aspects of uniqueness that risk being lost. The local interviews have garnered impressions and criticisms from the local population to understand whether the Chinese presence is perceived as a threat or a solution. Among the most exclusive interviews, there are those made to Afar leaders in the Logya area and some Coptic representatives in the Wukro area. To make this project even more unique, the Coptic rituals of Gennà and Timkat have been documented, unique expressions of a millennial tradition. The aim was to understand whether the Maoist presence began to influence the religious rites and forms of belief present in the country.

Keywords: China, Ethiopia, GIS, risk perceptions

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1296 Food Insecurity and Mental Health among Adolescents in Southwest Ethiopia: Structural Equation Modeling Analysis

Authors: Mulusew G. Jebena, David Lindstrom, Tefera Belachew, Craig Hadley, Carl Lachat, Patrick Kolsteren

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Background: The biological and psychosocial consequence of food insecurity on physical health and nutritional status has been reported. But, its effect on mental health during adolescence remains unexplored. Thus, the main aim of this analysis is to examine the mechanism by which food insecurity is linked to mental health among adolescents living in Jimma, Southwest Ethiopia. Methods: We used data from third round observation of Jimma Longitudinal Family and Youth Survey (JLFSY). A total of 1,521 adolescents included for the main analysis. Food insecurity was measured using 5-items scale and The Self Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20) was used to measure mental distress. Structural equation modeling analysis was done using maximum likelihood estimation method. Model diagnostics test was reported. All p values were two tailed and P value ≤ 0.05 was used to determine statistical significance. Results: The prevalence of mental distress was 20.8%, 95% CI: (18.8, 22.9). After adjusted for covariates, the final model depicts food insecurity was associated with adolescent mental distress (β=.324). This analysis showed 94.1% of the effect of food insecurity on mental distress is direct. By contrast, 5.9% of the food insecurity effect is mediated by physical health. In addition, Self-rated health (β=.356), socioeconomic status (β=-.078) parental educational (β= .170), living in urban (β= .193) and female headed household (β=.205) were associated with adolescent mental distress. Conclusions: This finding highlights the direct effect of food insecurity on adolescent mental distress. Therefore, any intervention aimed to improve mental distress of adolescents should consider strategies to improve access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food. Beside this, prevention of underlying factors such as psychosomatic health illness and improving socio economic status is also very critical. Furthermore longitudinal relationship of the long term effect of food insecurity on mental health should be investigated.

Keywords: adolescent, Ethiopia, food insecurity, mental health

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1295 Time to Cure from Obstetric Fistula and Its Associated Factors among Women Admitted to Addis Ababa Hamlin Fistula Hospital, Addis Ababa Ethiopia: A Survival Analysis

Authors: Chernet Mulugeta, Girma Seyoum, Yeshineh Demrew, Kehabtimer Shiferaw

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Background: Obstetric fistula (OF) is a serious medical condition that includes an abnormal opening between the vagina and bladder (vesico-vaginal fistula) or the vagina and rectum (recto-vaginal fistula). It is usually caused by prolonged obstructed labour. Despite its serious health and psychosocial consequences, there is a paucity of evidence regarding the time it takes to heal from OF. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the time to cure from obstetric fistula and its predictors among women admitted to Addis Ababa Hamlin Fistula Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methodology: An institution-based retrospective cohort study was conducted from January 2015 to December 2020 among a randomly selected 434 women with OF in Addis Ababa Hamlin Fistula Hospital. Data was collected using a structured checklist adapted from a similar study. The open data kit (ODK) collected data was exported and analyzed by using STATA (14.2). Kaplan Meir was used to compare the recovery time from OF. To identify the predictors of OF, a Cox regression model was fitted, and an adjusted hazard ratio with a 95% confidence interval was used to estimate the strength of the associations. Results: The average time to recover from obstetric fistula was 3.95 (95% CI: 3.0-4.6) weeks. About ¾ of the women [72.8% (95% CI - 0.65-1.2)] were physically cured of obstetric fistula. Having secondary education and above [AHR=3.52; 95% CI (1.98, 6.25)] compared to no formal education, having a live birth [AHR=1.64; 95% CI (1.22, 2.21)], having an intact bladder [AHR=2.47; 95% CI (1.1, 5.54)] compared to totally destructed, and having a grade 1 fistula [AHR=1.98; 95% CI (1.19, 3.31)] compared to grade 3 were the significant predictors of shorter time to cure from an obstetric fistula. Conclusion and recommendation: Overall, the proportion of women with OF who were not being cured was unacceptably high. The time it takes for them to recover from the fistula was also extended. It connotes us to work on the identified predictors to improve the time to recovery from OF.

Keywords: time to recovery, obstetric fistula, predictors, Ethiopia

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1294 Educational Attainment Inequalities in Depressive Symptoms in More Than 100 000 Individuals in Europe

Authors: Adam Chlapecka, Anna Kagstrom, Pavla Cermakova

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Background: Increasing educational attainment (EA) could decrease the occurrence of depression. We investigated the relationship between EA and depressive symptoms in older individuals across four European regions. Methods: We studied 108 315 Europeans (54 % women, median age 63 years old) from the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe assessing EA (7 educational levels based on ISCED classification); and depressive symptoms (≥ 4 points on EURO-D scale). Logistic regression estimated the association between EA and depressive symptoms, adjusting for sociodemographic and health-related factors; testing for sex/age/region and education interactions. Results: Higher EA was associated with lower odds of depressive symptoms, independent of sociodemographic and health-related factors. A threshold of the lowest odds of depressive symptoms was detected at the first stage of tertiary education (OR 0.60; 95% CI 0.55-0.65; p<0.001; relative to no education). Central and Eastern Europe showed the strongest association (OR for high vs. low education 0.37; 95% CI 0.33-0.40; p<0.001) and Scandinavia the weakest (OR for high vs. low education 0.69; 95% CI 0.60-0.80; p<0.001). The association was strongest amongst younger individuals. There was a sex and education interaction only within Central and Eastern Europe. Conclusion: The level of EA is reflected in later-life depressive symptoms, suggesting that supporting individuals in achieving EA, and considering those with lower EA at increased risk for depression, could lead to the decreased burden of depression across the life course. Further educational support in Central and Eastern Europe may decrease the higher burden of depressive symptoms in women.

Keywords: depression, education, epidemiology, Europe

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1293 Social Norms around Adolescent Girls’ Marriage Practices in Ethiopia: A Qualitative Exploration

Authors: Dagmawit Tewahido

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Purpose: This qualitative study was conducted to explore social norms around adolescent girls’ marriage practices in West Hararghe, Ethiopia, where early marriage is prohibited by law. Methods: Twenty Focus Group Discussions were conducted with Married and Unmarried adolescent girls, adolescent boys and parents of girls using locally developed vignettes. A total of 32 in-depth interviews were conducted with married and unmarried adolescent girls, husbands of adolescent girls and mothers-in-law. Key informant interviews were conducted with 36 district officials. Data analysis was assisted by Open Code computer software. The Social Norms Analysis Plot (SNAP) framework developed by CARE guided the development and analysis of vignettes. A thematic data analysis approach was utilized to summarize the data. Results: Early marriage is seen as a positive phenomenon in our study context, and girls who are not married by the perceived ideal age of 15 are socially sanctioned. They are particularly influenced by their peers to marry. Marrying early is considered a chance given by God and a symbol of good luck. The two common types of marriage are decided: 1) by adolescent girl and boy themselves without seeking parental permission (’Jalaa-deemaa’- meaning ‘to go along’), and 2) by just informing girl’s parents (‘Cabsaa’- meaning ‘to break the culture’). Relatives and marriage brokers also arrange early marriages. Girls usually accept the first marriage proposal regardless of their age. Parents generally tend not to oppose marriage arrangements chosen by their daughters. Conclusions: In the study context social norms encourage early marriage despite the existence of a law prohibiting marriage before the age of eighteen years. Early marriage commonly happens through consensual arrangements between adolescent girls and boys. Interventions to reduce early marriage need to consider the influence of Reference Groups on the decision makers for marriages, especially girls’ own peers.

Keywords: adolescent girls, social norms, early marriage, Ethiopia

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1292 Effect of Water Activity, Temperature, and Incubation Time on Growth and Ochratoxin a Production by Aspergillus fresenii and Aspergillus sulphureus on Niger Seeds

Authors: Yung-Chen Hsu, Juan Hernandez, W. T. Evert Ting, Dawit Gizachew

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Mycotoxin contamination of foods and feeds poses a high risk for human and animal health. Ochratoxin A (OTA) is a ubiquitous mycotoxin produced by Aspergillus and Penicillium fungi. It exhibits nephrotoxicity, teratogenicity, mutagenicity, and immunotoxicity in both humans and animals. OTA has been detected in foods such as cereals, coffee, grapes, cocoa, wine, and spices. Consumption of food contaminated with OTA has been linked to kidney and liver diseases. Niger (Guizotia abyssinica) is an oil seed that is used for extracting cooking oil in countries like Ethiopia and India. The seed cake (a byproduct from oil extraction) is also used as dairy cattle feed in Ethiopia. It is also exported to North America and Europe to be used mainly as bird feed. To our knowledge, there have been no studies on the growth and production of OTA on niger seeds. In this study, the environment conditions that support OTA production including effects of water activity, temperature, and incubation time on growth and OTA production by A. fresenii and A. sulphureus were investigated.

Keywords: mycotoxin, ochratoxin A, aspergillus, niger seed

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1291 Data Quality on Regular Immunization Programme at Birkod District: Somali Region, Ethiopia

Authors: Eyob Seife, Tesfalem Teshome, Bereket Seyoum, Behailu Getachew, Yohans Demis

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Developing countries continue to face preventable communicable diseases, such as vaccine-preventable diseases. The Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) was established by the World Health Organization in 1974 to control these diseases. Health data use is crucial in decision-making, but ensuring data quality remains challenging. The study aimed to assess the accuracy ratio, timeliness, and quality index of regular immunization programme data in the Birkod district of the Somali Region, Ethiopia. For poor data quality, technical, contextual, behavioral, and organizational factors are among contributors. The study used a quantitative cross-sectional design conducted in September 2022GC using WHO-recommended data quality self-assessment tools. The accuracy ratio and timeliness of reports on regular immunization programmes were assessed for two health centers and three health posts in the district for one fiscal year. Moreover, the quality index assessment was conducted at the district level and health facilities by trained assessors. The study found poor data quality in the accuracy ratio and timeliness of reports at all health units, which includes zeros. Overreporting was observed for most facilities, particularly at the health post level. Health centers showed a relatively better accuracy ratio than health posts. The quality index assessment revealed poor quality at all levels. The study recommends that responsible bodies at different levels improve data quality using various approaches, such as the capacitation of health professionals and strengthening the quality index components. The study highlighted the need for attention to data quality in general, specifically at the health post level, and improving the quality index at all levels, which is essential.

Keywords: Birkod District, data quality, quality index, regular immunization programme, Somali Region-Ethiopia

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1290 The influence of Personality Traits on Appearance Evaluation among Chinese Teenagers

Authors: Yichen Liu, Gexing Ding

Abstract:

Past research seeking to understand our ability to update social impressions in light of behavioral inconsistencies has shown that morality is more dominant in impression formation and updating than ability (e.g. friendly vs. efficient). In this study, we aim to test whether this pattern holds among the teenage population in an eastern society. Our findings revealed that competency and moral judgments go beyond impression formation in social cognition by influencing physical attractiveness evaluation. Moreover, our results confirmed that moral description has a leading role over the other basic dimensions of human social cognition (i.e., competency) in driving the impression formation process in an eastern society. However, competency information was generally perceived as more favorable than moral information, regardless of valence. Further investigation is needed to understand the mechanism of such effects.

Keywords: impression formation, social cognition, moral judgment, cross-cultural

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1289 Mineral Chemistry of Extraordinary Ilmenite from the Gabbroic Rocks of Abu Ghalaga Area, Eastern Desert, Egypt: Evidence to Metamorphic Modification

Authors: Yaser Maher Abdel Aziz Hawa

Abstract:

An assemblage of Mn-bearing ilmenite, titanomagnetite (4-17 vol.%) and subordinate chalcopyrite, pyrrhptite and pyrite is present as dissiminations in gabbroic rocks of Abu Ghalaga area, Eastern Desert, Egypt. The neoproterozoic gabbroic rocks encompasses these opaques are emplaced during oceanic island arc stage which represents the Nubian shield of Egypt. However, some textural features of these opaques suggest a relict igneous. The high Mn (up to 5.8 MnO%, 1282% MnTiO3) and very low Mg contents (0.21 MgO%, 0.82 MgTiO3) are dissimilar to those of any igneous ilmenite of tholeiitic rocks. Most of these ilmenites are associated mostly with metamorphic hornblende. Hornblende thermometry estimate crystallization of about 560°C. the present study suggests that the ilmenite under consideration has been greatly metamorphically modified, having lost Mg and gained Mn by diffusion.

Keywords: titanomagnetite, Ghalaga, ilmenite, chemistry

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1288 Cattle Commodification and Pastoral Identity in the Horn of Africa

Authors: Chanda Burrage

Abstract:

The past half-century has revealed massive structural, geographic, and technological changes in livestock production. The move, for instance, toward expanding export markets, massive feedlots for the fattening of cattle and improved veterinary standards is a global trend in food animal agribusiness and is apparent in both developed and developing regions. In the Horn of Africa, various breeds of cattle that previously were not considered in economic terms are now treated as commodities and branded for numerous export markets. Formerly a culturally significant exchange good within the subsistence pastoral livelihoods, cattle are now identified as a key economic resource and fully connected to global markets. This study incorporates an ethnographic-commodity chain approach to examine critical issues surrounding regional trade, harmonization of standards, import & export legislation, the role of the private sector, and infrastructure development relative to the Boran cattle breed and Borana pastoralists. The specific sites assessed include the cattle production region of Moyale in southern Ethiopia, feedlots and export abattoirs in Adama, Ethiopia, and quarantines and ports in Djibouti and Somaliland. The goal is to evaluate innovation and modernization outcomes and narratives around Boran cattle production and development and the associate livelihood changes for cattle producers in southern Ethiopia and how the smallholder pastoralists are coping with the multitude of global changes. Inevitably, the inherent pressures related to such changes alter, and may even promote the reconfiguration of identity, while inadvertently contribute to the capacity of smallholder cattle producers to act independently and make their own free choices in sustainability. It is through these processes that local Borana groups may appropriate, bypass, or put to new use available and innovative material resources.

Keywords: globalization, global change, commodification, pastoralism, vulnerability, adaptive capacity

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1287 Spatial Analysis and Determinants of Number of Antenatal Health Care Visit Among Pregnant Women in Ethiopia: Application of Spatial Multilevel Count Regression Models

Authors: Muluwerk Ayele Derebe

Abstract:

Background: Antenatal care (ANC) is an essential element in the continuum of reproductive health care for preventing preventable pregnancy-related morbidity and mortality. Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the spatial pattern and predictors of ANC visits in Ethiopia. Method: This study was done using Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data of 2016 among 7,174 pregnant women aged 15-49 years which was a nationwide community-based cross-sectional survey. Spatial analysis was done using Getis-Ord Gi* statistics to identify hot and cold spot areas of ANC visits. Multilevel glmmTMB packages adjusted for spatial effects were used in R software. Spatial multilevel count regression was conducted to identify predictors of antenatal care visits for pregnant women, and proportional change in variance was done to uncover the effect of individual and community-level factors of ANC visits. Results: The distribution of ANC visits was spatially clustered Moran’s I = 0.271, p<.0.001, ICC = 0.497, p<0.001). The highest spatial outlier areas of ANC visit was found in Amhara (South Wollo, Weast Gojjam, North Shewa), Oromo (west Arsi and East Harariga), Tigray (Central Tigray) and Benishangul-Gumuz (Asosa and Metekel) regions. The data was found with excess zeros (34.6%) and over-dispersed. The expected ANC visit of pregnant women with pregnancy complications was higher at 0.7868 [ARR= 2.1964, 95% CI: 1.8605, 2.5928, p-value <0.0001] compared to pregnant women who had no pregnancy complications. The expected ANC visit of a pregnant woman who lived in a rural area was 1.2254 times higher [ARR=3.4057, 95% CI: 2.1462, 5.4041, p-value <0.0001] as compared to a pregnant woman who lived in an urban. The study found dissimilar clusters with a low number of zero counts for a mean number of ANC visits surrounded by clusters with a higher number of counts of an average number of ANC visits when other variables held constant. Conclusion: This study found that the number of ANC visits in Ethiopia had a spatial pattern associated with socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic risk factors. Spatial clustering of ANC visits exists in all regions of Ethiopia. The predictor age of the mother, religion, mother’s education, husband’s education, mother's occupation, husband's occupation, signs of pregnancy complication, wealth index and marital status had a strong association with the number of ANC visits by each individual. At the community level, place of residence, region, age of the mother, sex of the household head, signs of pregnancy complications and distance to health facility factors had a strong association with the number of ANC visits.

Keywords: Ethiopia, ANC, spatial, multilevel, zero inflated Poisson

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1286 Rare Earth Elements and Radioactivity of Granitoid Rocks at Abu Marw Area, South Eastern Desert, Egypt

Authors: Adel H.El-Afandy, Abd Alrahman Embaby, Mona A. El Harairey

Abstract:

Abu Marw area is located in the southeastern part of the Eastern Desert, about 150km south east of Aswan. Abu Marw area is mainly covered by late Proterozoic igneous and metamorphic rocks. These basement rocks are nonconformably overlain by late Cretaceous Nubian sandstones in the western and northern parts of the areas. Abu Marw granitoid batholiths comprises a co-magmatic calc alkaline I type peraluminous suite of rocks ranging in composition from tonalite, granodiorite, monzogranite, syenogranite to alkali feldspar granite. The studied tonalite and granodiorite samples have ΣREE lower than the average REE values (250ppm) of granitic rocks, while the monzogranite, syenogranite and alkali feldspar granite samples have ΣREE above the average REE values of granitic rocks. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns of the considered granites display a gull-wing shape, characterized by large to moderately fractionated patterns and high LREE relative to the MREE and HREE contents. Furthermore, the studied rocks have a steadily decreasing Eu/Eu* values from the tonalite to the alkali feldspar granite with simultaneous increase in the ΣREE contents. The average U contents in different granitic rocks.

Keywords: granite, rare earth element, radioactivity, Abu Marw, south eastern desert

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1285 Towards an Eastern Philosophy of Religion: on the Contradictory Identity of Philosophy and Religion

Authors: Carlo Cogliati

Abstract:

The study of the relationship of philosophical reason with the religious domain has been very much a concern for many of the Western philosophical and theological traditions. In this essay, I will suggest a proposal for an Eastern philosophy of religion based on Nishida’s contradictory identity of the two: philosophy soku hi (is, and yes is not) religion. This will pose a challenge to the traditional Western contents and methods of the discipline. This paper aims to serve three purposes. First, I will critically assess Charlesworth’s typology of the relation between philosophy and religion in the West: philosophy as/for/against/about/after religion. I will also engage Harrison’s call for a global philosophy of religion(s) and argue that, although it expands the scope and the range of the questions to address, it is still Western in its method. Second, I will present Nishida’s logic of absolutely contradictory self-identity as the instrument to transcend the dichotomous pair of identity and contradiction: ‘A is A’ and ‘A is not A’. I will then explain how this ‘concrete’ logic of the East, as opposed to the ‘formal’ logic of the West, exhibits at best the bilateral dynamic relation between philosophy and religion. Even as Nishida argues for the non-separability of the two, he is also aware and committed to their mutual non-reducibility. Finally, I will outline the resulting new relation between God and creatures. Nishida in his philosophy soku hi religion replaces the traditional Western dualistic concept of God with the Eastern non-dualistic understanding of God as “neither transcendent nor immanent, and at the same time both transcendent and immanent.” God is therefore a self-identity of contradiction, nowhere and yet everywhere present in the world of creatures. God as absolute being is also absolute nothingness: the world of creatures is the expression of God’s absolute self-negation. The overreaching goal of this essay is to offer an alternative to traditional Western approaches to philosophy of religion based on Nishida’s logic of absolutely contradictory self-identity, as an example of philosophical and religious counter(influence). The resulting relationship between philosophy and religion calls for a revision of traditional concepts and methods. The outcome is not to reformulate the Eastern predilection to not sharply distinguish philosophical thought from religious enlightenment rather to bring together philosophy and religion in the place of identity and difference.

Keywords: basho, Nishida Kitaro, shukyotetsugaku, soku hi, zettai mujunteki jikodoitsu no ronri

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1284 Nutritional Potential and Traditional Uses of High Altitude Wild Edible Plants in Eastern Himalayas, India

Authors: Hui Tag, Jambey Tsering, Pallabi Kalita Hui, Baikuntha Jyoti Gogoi, Vijay Veer

Abstract:

The food security issues and its relevance in High Mountain regions of the world have been often neglected. Wild edible plants have been playing a major role in livelihood security among the tribal Communities of East Himalayan Region of the world since time immemorial. The Eastern Himalayan Region of India is one of the mega diverse regions of world and rated as top 12th Global Biodiversity Hotspots by IUCN and recognized as one of the 200 significant eco-regions of the Globe. The region supports one of the world’s richest alpine floras and about one-third of them are endemic to the region. There are at least 7,500 flowering plants, 700 orchids, 58 bamboo species, 64 citrus species, 28 conifers, 500 mosses, 700 ferns and 728 lichens. The region is the home of more than three hundred different ethnic communities having diverse knowledge on traditional uses of flora and fauna as food, medicine and beverages. Monpa, Memba and Khamba are among the local communities residing in high altitude region of Eastern Himalaya with rich traditional knowledge related to utilization of wild edible plants. The Monpas, Memba and Khamba are the followers Mahayana sect of Himalayan Buddhism and they are mostly agrarian by primary occupation and also heavily relaying on wild edible plants for their livelihood security during famine since millennia. In the present study, we have reported traditional uses of 40 wild edible plant species and out of which 6 species were analysed at biochemical level for nutrients contents and free radical scavenging activities. The results have shown significant free radical scavenging (antioxidant) activity and nutritional potential of the selected 6 wild edible plants used by the local communities of Eastern Himalayan Region of India.

Keywords: East Himalaya, local community, wild edible plants, nutrition, food security

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1283 Effect of Malnutrition at Admission on Length of Hospital Stay among Adult Surgical Patients in Wolaita Sodo University Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, South Ethiopia: Prospective Cohort Study, 2022

Authors: Yoseph Halala Handiso, Zewdi Gebregziabher

Abstract:

Background: Malnutrition in hospitalized patients remains a major public health problem in both developed and developing countries. Despite the fact that malnourished patients are more prone to stay longer in hospital, there is limited data regarding the magnitude of malnutrition and its effect on length of stay among surgical patients in Ethiopia, while nutritional assessment is also often a neglected component of the health service practice. Objective: This study aimed to assess the prevalence of malnutrition at admission and its effect on the length of hospital stay among adult surgical patients in Wolaita Sodo University Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, South Ethiopia, 2022. Methods: A facility-based prospective cohort study was conducted among 398 adult surgical patients admitted to the hospital. Participants in the study were chosen using a convenient sampling technique. Subjective global assessment was used to determine the nutritional status of patients with a minimum stay of 24 hours within 48 hours after admission (SGA). Data were collected using the open data kit (ODK) version 2022.3.3 software, while Stata version 14.1 software was employed for statistical analysis. The Cox regression model was used to determine the effect of malnutrition on the length of hospital stay (LOS) after adjusting for several potential confounders taken at admission. Adjusted hazard ratio (HR) with a 95% confidence interval was used to show the effect of malnutrition. Results: The prevalence of hospital malnutrition at admission was 64.32% (95% CI: 59%-69%) according to the SGA classification. Adult surgical patients who were malnourished at admission had higher median LOS (12 days: 95% CI: 11-13) as compared to well-nourished patients (8 days: 95% CI: 8-9), means adult surgical patients who were malnourished at admission were at higher risk of reduced chance of discharge with improvement (prolonged LOS) (AHR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.29-0.47) as compared to well-nourished patients. Presence of comorbidity (AHR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.50-90), poly medication (AHR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.55-0.86), and history of admission (AHR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.55-0.87) within the previous five years were found to be the significant covariates of the length of hospital stay (LOS). Conclusion: The magnitude of hospital malnutrition at admission was found to be high. Malnourished patients at admission had a higher risk of prolonged length of hospital stay as compared to well-nourished patients. The presence of comorbidity, polymedication, and history of admission were found to be the significant covariates of LOS. All stakeholders should give attention to reducing the magnitude of malnutrition and its covariates to improve the burden of LOS.

Keywords: effect of malnutrition, length of hospital stay, surgical patients, Ethiopia

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1282 Civic E-Participation in Central and Eastern Europe: A Comparative Analysis

Authors: Izabela Kapsa

Abstract:

Civic participation is an important aspect of democracy. The contemporary model of democracy is based on citizens' participation in political decision-making (deliberative democracy, participatory democracy). This participation takes many forms of activities like display of slogans and symbols, voting, social consultations, political demonstrations, membership in political parties or organizing civil disobedience. The countries of Central and Eastern Europe after 1989 are characterized by great social, economic and political diversity. Civil society is also part of the process of democratization. Civil society, funded by the rule of law, civil rights, such as freedom of speech and association and private ownership, was to play a central role in the development of liberal democracy. Among the many interpretations of concepts, defining the concept of contemporary democracy, one can assume that the terms civil society and democracy, although different in meaning, nowadays overlap. In the post-communist countries, the process of shaping and maturing societies took place in the context of a struggle with a state governed by undemocratic power. State fraud or repudiation of the institution is a representative state, which in the past was the only way to manifest and defend its identity, but after the breakthrough became one of the main obstacles to the development of civil society. In Central and Eastern Europe, there are many obstacles to the development of civil society, for example, the elimination of economic poverty, the implementation of educational campaigns, consciousness-related obstacles, the formation of social capital and the deficit of social activity. Obviously, civil society does not only entail an electoral turnout but a broader participation in the decision-making process, which is impossible without direct and participative democratic institutions. This article considers such broad forms of civic participation and their characteristics in Central and Eastern Europe. The paper is attempts to analyze the functioning of electronic forms of civic participation in Central and Eastern European states. This is not accompanied by a referendum or a referendum initiative, and other forms of political participation, such as public consultations, participative budgets, or e-Government. However, this paper will broadly present electronic administration tools, the application of which results from both legal regulations and increasingly common practice in state and city management. In the comparative analysis, the experiences of post-communist bloc countries will be summed up to indicate the challenges and possible goals for further development of this form of citizen participation in the political process. The author argues that for to function efficiently and effectively, states need to involve their citizens in the political decision-making process, especially with the use of electronic tools.

Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe, e-participation, e-government, post-communism

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1281 Detection and Dissemination of Putative Virulence Genes from Brucella Species Isolated from Livestock in Eastern Cape Province of South Africa

Authors: Rudzani Manafe, Ezekiel Green

Abstract:

Brucella, has many different virulence factors that act as a causative agent of brucellosis, depending on the environment and other factors, some factors may play a role more than others during infection and as a result, play a role in becoming a causative agent for pathogenesis. Brucella melitensis and Brucella abortus are considered to be pathogenic to humans. The genetic regularity of nine potential causes of virulence of two Brucella species in Eastern Cape livestock have been examined. A hundred and twenty isolates obtained from Molecular Pathogenesis and Molecular Epidemiology Research Group (MPMERG) were used for this study. All isolates were grown on Brucella agar medium. Nine primer pairs were used for the detection of virB2, virB5, vceC, btpA, btpB, prpA, betB, bpe275, and bspB virulence factors using Polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Approximately 100% was observed for genes BecC and BetB from B. arbotus. While the lowest gene observed was PrpA at 4.6% from B. arbotus. BetB was detected in 34.7%, while virB2 and prpA (0%) were not detected in B. melitensis. The results from this research suggest that most isolates of Brucella have virulence-related genes associated with disease pathogenesis. Finally, our findings showed that Brucella strains in the Eastern Cape Province are extremely virulent as virulence characteristics exist in most strains investigated.

Keywords: putative virulence genes, brucella, polymerase chain reaction, milk

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1280 The Economic Impact of the Elimination of Preferential Trade Arrangements in the Organization of the Eastern Caribbean States

Authors: Natasha Lalla

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The impact of free trade on growth has been highly debated and studies have generated varying results. Since the 1970s the Caribbean has engaged in asymmetrical trade with some European states characterized by the Lomé Conventions (1975-1999). These agreements allowed for Caribbean products such as sugar and banana to enter some European countries duty-free and above market prices. With the onset of the World Trade Organization by the mid-1990s, the EU’s banana trade regime was considered illegitimate. Lomé was replaced by the Cotonou agreement (2000-2007), in order to phase out preferences and ensure that the Caribbean trade arrangements were consistent with the international economic environment of trade liberalization. This agreement facilitated signing of the Economic Partnership Agreement in 2008 by both trade blocs whereby Caribbean states must implement freer trade by 2033. The current study is an exploration of how the Organization of the Eastern Caribbean States, the smallest, economically and ecologically vulnerable states of the Caribbean have restructured their trade policies towards the end of preferences and what has been the economic developmental impact of this. This is done by analyzing key reports to understand how these states restructured policies towards freer trade. Secondly, to determine the impact of this, data collected for specific economic indicators were analyzed in a fixed effects panel data framework for the period 1979-2016 on six states of the Organization of the Eastern Caribbean States. The study, therefore, found that freer trade has resulted in negative growth in these states.

Keywords: free trade, growth, OECS, small island developing states

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1279 Estimating the Value of Statistical Life under the Subsidization and Cultural Effects

Authors: Mohammad A. Alolayan, John S. Evans, James K. Hammitt

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The value of statistical life has been estimated for a middle eastern country with high economical subsidization system. In this study, in-person interviews were conducted on a stratified random sample to estimate the value of mortality risk. Double-bounded dichotomous choice questions followed by open-ended question were used in the interview to investigate the willingness to pay of the respondent for mortality risk reduction. High willingness to pay was found to be associated with high income and education. Also, females were found to have lower willingness to pay than males. The estimated value of statistical life is larger than the ones estimated for western countries where taxation system exists. This estimate provides a baseline for monetizing the health benefits for proposed policy or program to the decision makers in an eastern country. Also, the value of statistical life for a country in the region can be extrapolated from this this estimate by using the benefit transfer method.

Keywords: mortality, risk, VSL, willingness-to-pay

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1278 Rupture Termination of the 1950 C. E. Earthquake and Recurrent Interval of Great Earthquake in North Eastern Himalaya, India

Authors: Rao Singh Priyanka, Jayangondaperumal R.

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The Himalayan active fault has the potential to generate great earthquakes in the future, posing a biggest existential threat to humans in the Himalayan and adjacent region. Quantitative evaluation of accumulated and released interseismic strain is crucial to assess the magnitude and spatio-temporal variability of future great earthquakes along the Himalayan arc. To mitigate the destruction and hazards associated with such earthquakes, it is important to understand their recurrence cycle. The eastern Himalayan and Indo-Burman plate boundary systems offers an oblique convergence across two orthogonal plate boundaries, resulting in a zone of distributed deformation both within and away from the plate boundary and clockwise rotation of fault-bounded blocks. This seismically active region has poorly documented historical archive of the past large earthquakes. Thus, paleoseismologicalstudies confirm the surface rupture evidences of the great continental earthquakes (Mw ≥ 8) along the Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFT), which along with the Geodetic studies, collectively provide the crucial information to understand and assess the seismic potential. These investigations reveal the rupture of 3/4th of the HFT during great events since medieval time but with debatable opinions for the timing of events due to unclear evidences, ignorance of transverse segment boundaries, and lack of detail studies. Recent paleoseismological investigations in the eastern Himalaya and Mishmi ranges confirms the primary surface ruptures of the 1950 C.E. great earthquake (M>8). However, a seismic gap exists between the 1714 C.E. and 1950 C.E. Assam earthquakes that did not slip since 1697 C.E. event. Unlike the latest large blind 2015 Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8), the 1950 C.E. event is not triggered by a large event of 1947 C.E. that occurred near the western edge of the great upper Assam event. Moreover, the western segment of the eastern Himalayadid not witness any surface breaking earthquake along the HFT for over the past 300 yr. The frontal fault excavations reveal that during the 1950 earthquake, ~3.1-m-high scarp along the HFT was formed due to the co-seismic slip of 5.5 ± 0.7 m at Pasighat in the Eastern Himalaya and a 10-m-high-scarp at a Kamlang Nagar along the Mishmi Thrust in the Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis is an outcome of a dip-slip displacement of 24.6 ± 4.6 m along a 25 ± 5°E dipping fault. This event has ruptured along the two orthogonal fault systems in the form of oblique thrust fault mechanism. Approx. 130 km west of Pasighat site, the Himebasti village has witnessed two earthquakes, the historical 1697 Sadiya earthquake, and the 1950 event, with a cumulative dip-slip displacement of 15.32 ± 4.69 m. At Niglok site, Arunachal Pradesh, a cumulative slip of ~12.82 m during at least three events since pre 19585 B.P. has produced ~6.2-m high scarp while the youngest scarp of ~2.4-m height has been produced during 1697 C.E. The site preserves two deformational events along the eastern HFT, providing an idea of last serial ruptures at an interval of ~850 yearswhile the successive surface rupturing earthquakes lacks in the Mishmi Range to estimate the recurrence cycle.

Keywords: paleoseismology, surface rupture, recurrence interval, Eastern Himalaya

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