Search results for: risk sharing

Authors: Hyun-E Yeom

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Patients’ views about the cause of hypertension may influence their present and proactive behaviors to regulate high blood pressure. This study aimed to examine the internal structure underlying the causal beliefs about hypertension and the influence of causal beliefs on self-care intention and medical compliance in Korean patients with hypertension. The causal beliefs of 145 patients (M age = 57.7) were assessed using the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised. An exploratory factor analysis was used to identify the factor structure of the causal beliefs, and the factors’ influence on self-care intention and medication compliance was analyzed using multiple and logistic regression analyses. The four-factor structure including psychological, fate-related, risk and habitual factors was identified and the psychological factor was the most representative component of causal beliefs. The risk and fate-related factors were significant factors affecting lower intention to engage in self-care and poor compliance with medication regimens, respectively. The findings support the critical role of causal beliefs about hypertension in driving patients’ current and future self-care behaviors. This study highlights the importance of educational interventions corresponding to patients’ awareness of hypertension for improving their adherence to a healthy lifestyle and medication regimens.

Keywords: hypertension, self-care, beliefs, medication compliance

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Authors: Zi-Han Li, Zi-Jun Sun, Dong-Yuan Chang, Li Zhu, Min Chen, Ming-Hui Zhao

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Aims: A genome-wide association study (GWAS) reported that patients with the rs55703767 minor allele in collagen type IV α3 chain encoding gene COL4A3 showed protection against diabetic kidney disease (DKD) in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). However, the role of rs55703767 in type 2 DKD has not been elucidated. The aim of the current study was to investigate the association between COL4A3 variant rs55703767 and DKD risk in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods: This nested case-control study was performed on 1311 patients who had T2DM for at least 10 years, including 580 with DKD and 731 without DKD. We detected the genotypes of all patients by TaqMan SNP Genotyping Assay and analyzed the association between COL4A3 variant rs55703767 and DKD risk. Results: Genetic analysis revealed that there was no significant difference between T2DM patients with DKD and those without DKD regarding allele or genotype frequencies of rs55703767, and the effect of this variant was not hyperglycemia specific. Conclusion: Our findings suggested that there was no detectable association between the COL4A3 variant rs55703767 and the susceptibility to DKD in the Chinese T2DM population.

Keywords: collagen type IV α3 chain, gene polymorphism, type 2 diabetes, diabetic kidney disease

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Authors: Shi-Yu Xu

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The top three risk factors that have contributed to building collapses during past earthquake events in Taiwan are: "irregular floor plans or elevations," "insufficient columns in single-bay buildings," and the "weak-story problem." Fortunately, these unsound structural characteristics can be directly identified from the floor plans. However, due to the vast number of old buildings, conducting manual inspections to identify these compromised structural features in all existing structures would be time-consuming and prone to human errors. This study aims to develop an algorithm that utilizes artificial intelligence techniques to automatically pinpoint the structural components within a building's floor plans. The obtained spatial information will be utilized to construct a digital structural model of the building. This information, particularly regarding the distribution of columns in the floor plan, can then be used to conduct preliminary seismic assessments of the building. The study employs various image processing and pattern recognition techniques to enhance detection efficiency and accuracy. The study enables a large-scale evaluation of structural vulnerability for numerous old buildings, providing ample time to arrange for structural retrofitting in those buildings that are at risk of significant damage or collapse during earthquakes.

Keywords: structural vulnerability detection, object recognition, seismic capacity assessment, old buildings, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Hanieh Mohammadi, Sarah Fraser, Anil Nigam, Frederic Lesage, Louis Bherer

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A chronically higher cerebral pulsatility is thought to damage cerebral microcirculation, leading to cognitive decline in older adults. Although it is widely known that regular physical activity is linked to improvement in some cognitive domains, including executive functions, the mediating role of cerebral pulsatility on this link remains to be elucidated. This study assessed the impact of 6 months of regular physical activity upon changes in an optical index of cerebral pulsatility and the role of physical activity for the improvement of executive functions. 27 older adults (aged 57-79, 66.7% women) with cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) were enrolled in the study. The participants completed the behavioral Stroop test, which was extracted from the Delis-Kaplan executive functions system battery at baseline (T0) and after 6 months (T6) of physical activity. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was applied for an innovative approach to indexing cerebral pulsatility in the brain microcirculation at T0 and T6. The participants were at standing rest while a NIRS device recorded hemodynamics data from frontal and motor cortex subregions at T0 and T6. The cerebral pulsatility index of interest was cerebral pulse amplitude, which was extracted from the pulsatile component of NIRS data. Our data indicated that 6 months of physical activity was associated with a reduction in the response time for the executive functions, including inhibition (T0: 56.33± 18.2 to T6: 53.33± 15.7,p= 0.038)and Switching(T0: 63.05± 5.68 to T6: 57.96 ±7.19,p< 0.001) conditions of the Stroop test. Also, physical activity was associated with a reduction in cerebral pulse amplitude (T0: 0.62± 0.05 to T6: 0.55± 0.08, p < 0.001). Notably, cerebral pulse amplitude was a significant mediator of the link between physical activity and response to the Stroop test for both inhibition (β=0.33 (0.61,0.23),p< 0.05)and switching (β=0.42 (0.69,0.11),p <0.01) conditions. This study suggests that regular physical activity may support cognitive functions through the improvement of cerebral pulsatility in older adults with CVRF.

Keywords: near-infrared spectroscopy, cerebral pulsatility, physical activity, cardiovascular risk factors, executive functions

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Authors: Esther Baldwin

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It is well settled that the use of solitary confinement can cause psychological and physical harm to detainees. For juveniles, who are more susceptible to irreparable harm due to their underdeveloped psyches, the risks are exacerbated. Despite these risks, across the United States juvenile detainees are regularly held in isolation for prolonged periods of time. This essay will examine the broad impact of solitary confinement on juvenile detainees while giving particular focus to the story of Kalief Browder, a juvenile awaiting trial on Rikers Island in New York for a period of three years, nearly two years of which were spent in solitary confinement. Although sadly, his story is not uncommon, Kalief’s story offers a unique perspective in that it provides first-hand insight on the effects of solitary confinement on juveniles. It is our hope that by sharing his story, we will demand better detention practices and policies for juveniles under correctional control in the United States.

Keywords: criminal justice system, juveniles, Kalief browder, solitary confinement

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Authors: H. Kalboussi, A. Aloui, W. Boughattas, M. Maoua, A. Brahem, S. Chatti, O. El Maalel, F. Debbabi, N. Mrizak, Y. Ben Youssef, A. Khlif, I. Bougmiza

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Background: In recent decades, the incidence of children's hematological malignancies has been increasing worldwide including Tunisia. Their severity is reflected in the importance of the medical, social and economic impact. This increase remains fully unexplained, and the involvement of genetic, environmental and occupational factors is strongly suspected. Materials and Methods: Our study is a cross-sectional survey of the type case-control conducted in the University Hospital of Farhat Hached of Sousse during the period ranging between 1 July 2011 and 30 June 2012,and which included children with acute leukemia compared to children unharmed by neoplastic disease . Cases and controls were matched by age and gender. Our objective was to: - Describe the socio-occupational characteristics of the parents of children with acute leukemia. - Identify potential occupational factors implicated in the genesis of acute leukemia. Result: The number of acute leukemia cases in the Hematology Service and day hospital of the University Hospital of Farhat Hached during the study period was 66 cases divided into in 40 boys and 26 girls with a sex ratio of 1.53. Our cases and controls were matched by age and gender. The risk of incidence of leukemia in children from smoking fathers was higher (p = 0.02, OR = 2.24, IC = [1.11 - 4.52]). The risk of incidence of leukemia in children from alcoholic fathers was higher with p = 0,009, OR = 3.9; CI = [1.33 - 11.39]. After adjusting different variables, the difference persisted significantly with pa = 0.03 and ORa = 3.5; ICa = [1.09 -11.6]. 25.7 % of cases had a family history of blood disease and neoplasia, whereas no control presented that. The difference was statistically significant (p = 0.006), OR = 1.46, IC = [1.38 - 1.56]. The parental occupational exposures associated to the occurrence of acute leukemia in children were: - Pesticides with a statistically significant difference (p = 0.03), OR = 2.94, IC = [1.06 - 8.13]. This difference persisted after adjustment with different variables pa = 0.01, ORa 3.75; ICa = [1.27 - 11.03]. - Cement without a statistically non-significant difference (p = 0.2). This difference has become significant after adjustment with the different variables pa = 0.03; ORa = 2.67; ICa = [1.06 - 6.7]. Conclusion: Parental exposure to occupational risk factors may play a role in the pathogenesis of acute leukemia in children.

Keywords: hematological malignancies, children, parents, occupational exposure

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Authors: Amani A. Saad, Ahmed A. El-Farag, El-Sayed A. Helali

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Cloud computing is an important and promising field in the recent decade. Cloud computing allows sharing resources, services and information among the people of the whole world. Although the advantages of using clouds are great, but there are many risks in a cloud. The data security is the most important and critical problem of cloud computing. In this research a new security model for cloud computing is proposed for ensuring secure communication system, hiding information from other users and saving the user's times. In this proposed model Blowfish encryption algorithm is used for exchanging information or data, and SHA-2 cryptographic hash algorithm is used for data integrity. For user authentication process a user-name and password is used, the password uses SHA-2 for one way encryption. The proposed system shows an improvement of the processing time of uploading and downloading files on the cloud in secure form.

Keywords: cloud Ccomputing, data security, SAAS, PAAS, IAAS, Blowfish

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Authors: N. M. Sani, I. Bitrus, A. M. Sarki, N. S. Mujahid

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Hepatitis is one of the neglected infectious diseases in sub Saharan Africa, and most of the available data is based on blood donors. Health care workers (HCWs) often get infected as a result of their close contact with patients. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the prevalence of hepatitis B and C among this group of professionals with a view to improving the quality of care to their patients. Hepatitis B and C infections pose a major public health problem worldwide. While infection is highest in the developing world particularly Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, healthcare workers are at higher risk of acquiring blood-borne viral infections, particularly Hepatitis B and C which are mostly asymptomatic. This study was aimed at determining the prevalence of Hepatitis B and C infections and associated risk factors among health care workers in Dutse Metropolis, Jigawa State - Nigeria. A standard rapid immuno-chromatographic technique i.e. rapid ELISA was used to screen all sera for Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and Hepatitis C viral antibody (HCVAb) respectively. Strips containing coated antibodies and antigens to HBV and HCV respectively were removed from the foil. Strips were labeled according to samples. Using a separate disposable pipette, 2 drops of the sample (plasma) were added into each test strip and allowed to run across the absorbent pad. Results were read after 15 minutes. The prevalence of HBV and HCV infection in 100 healthcare workers was determined by testing the plasma collected from the clients during their normal checkup using HBsAg and HCVAb test strips. Results were subjected to statistical analysis using chi-square test. The prevalence of HBV among HCWs was 19 out of 100 (19.0%) and that of HCV was 5 out of 100 (5.0%) where in both cases, higher prevalence was observed among female nurses. It was also observed that all HCV positive cases were recorded among nurses only. The study revealed that nurses are at greater risk of contracting HBV and HCV due to their frequent contact with patients. It is therefore recommended that effective vaccination and other infection control measures be encouraged among healthcare workers.

Keywords: prevalence, hepatitis, viruses, healthcare workers, infection

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Authors: Katarzyna Niewiadomska

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Many technology startups fail to achieve a worthwhile return on investment for their funders, founders, and employees. Failures in product development, to-market strategy, sales, and delivery are commonly recognized. Founder failures are not as obvious and harder to identify. This paper explores six critical failure points that entrepreneurs and innovators are susceptible to and aims to link their emotional intelligence and behavioral profile to the points at which they experienced self-perceived failure. A model of six failure points from the perspective of the technology entrepreneur ranging from pre-startup to maturity is provided. By analyzing emotional and behavioral profile data from entrepreneurs and recording in-person accounts, certain key emotional and behavioral clusters contributing to each failure point are determined, and several underlying factors are defined and discussed. Recommendations that support entrepreneurs and innovators stalling at each failure point are given. This work can enable stakeholders to evaluate founder emotional and behavioral profiles and to take risk-mitigating action, either through coaching or through more robust team creation, to avoid founder-related company failure. The paper will be of interest to investors funding startups, executives leading them and mentors supporting them.

Keywords: behavior, emotional intelligence, entrepreneur, failure

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Authors: Dyah Larasati, Karishma Alize Huda, Sri Kusumastuti Rahayu, Martin Daniel Siyaranamual

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Indonesia continues to reform its social protection system to provide the needed protection for its citizen. Indonesia Social Protection consisted of social assistance programs (non-contributory/tax-financed) specifically targeted for the poor and at-risk and social security/insurance program (contributory system). The social assistance programs have mostly been implemented since 1998. The national health insurance has been implemented since 2014 and the employment social insurance since 2015. One major reform implemented has been improving the targeting performance of its major social assistance portfolios including (1) Food Assistance for the poor families (Rastra and BPNT/noncash foods assistance); (2) Education Assistance for poor children; (3) Conditional Cash Transfer for poor families (PKH); and (4) Subsidized beneficiaries of National Health Insurance (JKN-PBI) for the poor and at-risk individuals. For the Social Insurance (through BPJS Employment program), several initiatives have been implemented to expand the program contributing members, although it mostly benefits the formal sector workers. However, major gaps still exist especially for the emerging middle-income groups who typically work at the informal sectors. They have yet to get the protection needed to sustain their social and economic growth. Since 2017, TNP2K (the National Team for Poverty Reduction) under the Vice President office has led the social protection discourse as the government understands the need to address vulnerabilities across the lifecycle and prioritize support to the most at-risk population particularly the elderly, young children and people with disabilities. Discussion and advocacy to recommend for more investment is continuing in order for the government to establish a comprehensive social protection system in the near future (2020-2024) that protects children through an inclusive child benefit program; build a system to benefit more working-age adults (including individuals with disabilities) and a three-tier elderly protection as they reach 65 years.

Keywords: poverty reduction, social assistance, social insurance, social protection

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Authors: Yousef Naserzadeh, Niloufar Mahmoudi

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The spotted-wing drosophila, Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura) (Diptera: Drosophilidae), a vinegar fly native to South East Asia, has recently invaded Europe, North- and South America and is spreading rapidly. Species distribution modeling has been widely employed to indicate probable areas of invasion and to guide management strategies. Drosophila sp. is native to Asia, but since 2015, it has invaded almost every country in the world, including Africa, Australia, India, and most recently, the Americas. The growth of this species of Drosophila suzukii has been rapidly multiplying and spreading in the last decade. In fact, we examine and model the potential geographical distribution of D. suzukii for both present and future scenarios. Finally, we determine the environmental variables that affect its distribution, as well as assess the risk of encroachment on protected areas. D.suzukii has the potential to expand its occurrence, especially on continents that have already been invaded. The predictive models obtained in this study indicate potential regions that could be at risk of invasion by D. suzukii, including protected areas. These results are important and can assist in the establishment of management plans to avoid the possible harm caused by biological invasions.

Keywords: climate change, Drosophila suzukii, environmental variables, host preference, host plant, nutrition

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Authors: Kholoud H. Al-Zedjali, Abir S. Al-Harrasi, Ali H. Al-Badi

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Recently there has been a dramatic proliferation in the number of social networking sites (SNSs) users; however, little is published about what motivates college students to use SNSs in education. The main goal of this research is to explore the college students’ motives for using SNSs in education. A conceptual framework has therefore been developed to identify the main factors that influence/motivate students to use social networking sites for learning purposes. To achieve the research objectives a quantitative method was used to collect data. A questionnaire has been distributed amongst college students. The results reveal that social influence, perceived enjoyment, institute regulation, perceived usefulness, ranking up-lift, attractiveness, communication tools, free of charge, sharing material and course nature all play an important role in the motivation of college students to use SNSs for learning purposes.

Keywords: Social Networking Sites (SNSs), education, college students, motivations

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Authors: Kisik Song, Sungjoo Lee

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With the growing importance of intangible assets recently, the impact of patent infringement on the business of a company has become more evident. Accordingly, it is essential for firms to estimate the risk of patent infringement risk before developing a technology and create new technology ideas to avoid the risk. Recognizing the needs, several attempts have been made to help develop new technology opportunities and most of them have focused on identifying emerging vacant technologies from patent analysis. In these studies, the IPC (International Patent Classification) system or keywords from text-mining application to patent documents was generally used to define vacant technologies. Unlike those studies, this study adopted F-term, which classifies patent documents according to the technical features of the inventions described in them. Since the technical features are analyzed by various perspectives by F-term, F-term provides more detailed information about technologies compared to IPC while more systematic information compared to keywords. Therefore, if well utilized, it can be a useful guideline to create a new technology idea. Recognizing the potential of F-term, this paper aims to suggest a novel approach to developing new technology ideas to avoid patent infringement based on F-term. For this purpose, we firstly collected data about F-term and then applied text-mining to the descriptions about classification criteria and attributes. From the text-mining results, we could identify other technologies with similar technical features of the existing one, the patented technology. Finally, we compare the technologies and extract the technical features that are commonly used in other technologies but have not been used in the existing one. These features are presented in terms of “purpose”, “function”, “structure”, “material”, “method”, “processing and operation procedure” and “control means” and so are useful for creating new technology ideas that help avoid infringing patent rights of other companies. Theoretically, this is one of the earliest attempts to adopt F-term to patent analysis; the proposed methodology can show how to best take advantage of F-term with the wealth of technical information. In practice, the proposed methodology can be valuable in the ideation process for successful product and service innovation without infringing the patents of other companies.

Keywords: patent infringement, new technology ideas, patent analysis, F-term

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Authors: Natália Botica, Luís Luís, Paulo Bernardes

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The Côa Valley, listed World Heritage since 1998, presents more than 1300 open-air engraved rock panels. The Archaeological Park of the Côa Valley recorded the rock art motifs, testing various techniques based on direct tracing processes on the rock, using natural and artificial lighting. In this work, integrated in the "Open Access Rock Art Repository" (RARAA) project, we present the methodology adopted for the vectorial drawing of the rock art motifs based on orthophotos taken from the photogrammetric survey and 3D models of the rocks. We also present the information system designed to integrate the vector drawing and the characterization data of the motifs, as well as the open access sharing, in order to promote their reuse in multiple areas. The 3D models themselves constitute a very detailed record, ensuring the digital preservation of the rock and iconography. Thus, even if a rock or motif disappears, it can continue to be studied and even recreated.

Keywords: rock art, archaeology, iron age, 3D models

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Authors: John Benedict Bernardo

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Crowdsourcing is a way of collecting information provided by the volunteers. This crowdsourced information has the capacity to increase the people’s situational awareness in times of disasters. The research reflected in this paper strives to demonstrate the benefits of crowdsourcing during natural disasters and the ways of utilizing it for disaster response. Shared information regarding natural disasters from social media is often scattered as the inputs from these media are uncategorized. For this reason, the study aims to equip the citizens a medium that is solely intended for sharing and/or obtaining natural disaster-related information. Ergo, an android application was developed to gather and publicize this volunteered information. The capability of crowdsourcing and the effectiveness of the application were evaluated and the result shows overwhelming agreement that this study is indeed efficient in increasing the awareness and response initiatives of the citizens during natural disasters.

Keywords: crowdsourcing, natural disasters, mobile application, social media

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Authors: Afrah Aladwani, Alexander Mullen, Mohammad AlRashidi, Omamah Alfarisi, Faisal Alterkit, Abdulwahab Aladwani, Asit Kumar, Emad Eldosouky

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Introduction: Trastuzumab is a HER-2 targeted humanized monoclonal antibody that significantly improves the therapeutic outcomes of metastatic and non-metastatic breast cancer. However, it is associated with increased risk of cardiotoxicity that ranges from mild decline in the cardiac ejection fraction to permanent cardiomyopathy. Concerns have been raised in treating eligible older patients. This study compares trastuzumab outcomes between two age cohorts in the Kuwait Cancer Control Centre (KCCC). Methods: In a prospective comparative observational study, 93 HER-2 positive breast cancer patients undergoing different chemotherapy protocols + trastuzumab were included and divided into two cohorts based on their age (˂60 and ≥60 years old). The baseline left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was assessed and monitored every three months during trastuzumab treatment. Event of cardiotoxicity was defined as ≥10% decline in the LVEF from the baseline. The lower accepted normal limit of the LVEF was 50%. Results: The median baseline LVEF was 65% in both age cohorts (IQR 8% and 9% for older and younger patients respectively). Whereas, the median LVEF post-trastuzumab treatment was 51% and 55% in older and younger patients respectively (IQR 8%; p-value = 0.22), despite the fact that older patients had significantly lower exposure to anthracyclines compared to younger patients (60% and 84.1% respectively; p-value ˂0.001). 86.7% and 55.6% of older and younger patients, respectively, developed ≥10% decline in their LVEF from the baseline. Among those, only 29% of older and 27% of younger patients reached a LVEF value below 50% (p-value = 0.88). Statistically, age was the only factor that significantly correlated with trastuzumab induced cardiotoxicity (OR 4; p-value ˂0.012), but it did not increase the requirement for permanent discontinuation of treatment. A baseline LVEF value below 60% contributed to developing a post-treatment value below normal ranges (50%). Conclusion: Breast cancer patients aged 60 years and above in Kuwait were at 4-fold higher risk of developing ≥10% decline in their LVEF from the baseline than younger patients during trastuzumab treatment. Surprisingly, previous exposure to anthracyclines and multiple comorbidities were not associated with significant increased risk of cardiotoxicity.

Keywords: breast cancer, elderly, Trastuzumab, cardiotoxicity

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Authors: Semachew M. Kassa, Africa M Geremew, Tezera F. Azmatch, Nandyala Darga Kumar

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Frequency ratio (FR) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methods are developed based on past landslide failure points to identify the landslide susceptibility mapping because landslides can seriously harm both the environment and society. However, it is still difficult to select the most efficient method and correctly identify the main driving factors for particular regions. In this study, we used fourteen landslide conditioning factors (LCFs) and five soft computing algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Naïve Bayes (NB), to predict the landslide susceptibility at 12.5 m spatial scale. The performance of the RF (F1-score: 0.88, AUC: 0.94), ANN (F1-score: 0.85, AUC: 0.92), and SVM (F1-score: 0.82, AUC: 0.86) methods was significantly better than the LR (F1-score: 0.75, AUC: 0.76) and NB (F1-score: 0.73, AUC: 0.75) method, according to the classification results based on inventory landslide points. The findings also showed that around 35% of the study region was made up of places with high and very high landslide risk (susceptibility greater than 0.5). The very high-risk locations were primarily found in the western and southeastern regions, and all five models showed good agreement and similar geographic distribution patterns in landslide susceptibility. The towns with the highest landslide risk include Amhara Saint Town's western part, the Northern part, and St. Gebreal Church villages, with mean susceptibility values greater than 0.5. However, rainfall, distance to road, and slope were typically among the top leading factors for most villages. The primary contributing factors to landslide vulnerability were slightly varied for the five models. Decision-makers and policy planners can use the information from our study to make informed decisions and establish policies. It also suggests that various places should take different safeguards to reduce or prevent serious damage from landslide events.

Keywords: artificial neural network, logistic regression, landslide susceptibility, naïve Bayes, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: S. Thongchai

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Result of the study on knowledge management systems in businesses was shown that the most of these businesses provide internet accessibility for their employees in order to study new knowledge via internet, corporate website, electronic mail, and electronic learning system. These business organizations use information technology application for knowledge management because of convenience, time saving, ease of use, accuracy of information and knowledge usefulness. The result indicated prominent improvements for corporate knowledge management systems as the following; 1) administrations must support corporate knowledge management system 2) the goal of corporate knowledge management must be clear 3) corporate culture should facilitate the exchange and sharing of knowledge within the organization 4) cooperation of personnel of all levels must be obtained 5) information technology infrastructure must be provided 6) they must develop the system regularly and constantly.

Keywords: business organizations, information technology application, knowledge management systems, prominent improvements

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Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

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Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

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Authors: Gabor Kiraly

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Wine regions are based on equilibria between climate, soil, grape varieties, and farming expertise that define the special character and quality of local vine farming and wine production. Changes in climate conditions may increase risk of destabilizing this equilibrium. Adaptation decisions, including adjusting practices, processes and capitals in response to climate change stresses – may reduce this risk. However, farmers’ adaptive behavior are subject to a wide range of factors and forces such as links between climate change implications and production, farm - scale adaptive capacity and other external forces that might hinder them to make efficient response to climate change challenges. This paper will aim to study climate change adaptation practices and strategies of grape growers in a way of applying a complex and holistic approach involving theories, methods and tools both from environmental and social sciences. It will introduce the field of adaptation studies as an evidence - based discourse by presenting an overview of examples from wine regions where adaptation studies have already reached an advanced stage. This will serve as a theoretical background for a preliminary research with the aim to examine the feasibility and applicability of such a research approach in the Hungarian context.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, viticulture, Hungary

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Authors: Nadjib Drouiche

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Water resources in Algeria are scarce, often low quality, fragile, and unevenly distributed in space and time. The pressure on water resources can be associated with industrial development, a steady population growth, and demanding land irrigation measures. These conditions createa tense competitionfor managing waterresourcesand sharing thembetween agricultural development, drinking water supply, industrial activities, etc. Moreover, the impact of climate change has placed in the forefront national policies focused on the water-energy-food nexus (WEF). In this context, desalination membrane technologies could play an increasing rolefor supporting segments of the Algerian economy that are heavily water-dependent. By implementing water reuse and desalination strategies together in the agricultural sector, there is an opportunity to expand the access to healthy food and clean water, thereby keeping the WEF nexus effects under control.

Keywords: desalination, mitigation, climate change, sustainable development goals

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Authors: A. Amidah Amrawaty, M. Saleh S. Ali, Darmawan Salman

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The aim of this study was to identify local and non local knowledge in Bali cattle development, to analyze the contestation between local and non-local knowledge. The paradigm used was constructivism paradigm with a qualitative approach. descriptive type of research using case study method. The study was conducted in four villages subjected to Agropolitan Program, i.e. Palakka, Tompo, Galung and Anabanua in Barru District, province of South Sulawesi. The results indicated that the local knowledge of the farmers were: a) knowledge of animal housing, b) knowledge of the prevention and control disease, c) knowledge of the feed, d) knowledge of breed selection, e) knowledge of sharing arrangement, f) knowledge of marketing, Generally, there are three patterns of knowledge contestation namely coexistence, ‘zero sum game’ and hybridization but in this research only coexistence and zero sum game patterns took place, while the pattern of hybridization did not occur.

Keywords: contestation, local knowledge, non-local knowledge, developing of Bali cattle

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Authors: Qiao Mao

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Starting from the theoretical viewpoints of relational aesthetics, this study explores the relationship between the university art gallery and the communities, taking Art Scattering Program in the Name of Trees of the Art Gallery of National Taiwan Normal University (NTNU) as a case. The researcher uses observational and interview methods to obtain research materials to explore how university art galleries interact with communities through public art exhibitions and strengthen the relatively weak relationships with community residents. The researcher also observes how community residents can change their opinions about the university gallery by participating in public art exhibitions. The results show that the university art gallery can effectively establish the interaction with the community residents and repair the relationship with them through such programs as "collection-sharing," "teacher-student co-creation," "artist stationing," and "education promotion activities," playing an active role in promoting interpersonal communication, sustaining the natural environment development and improving community public space.

Keywords: university art gallery, public art, relational aesthetics, communities, interaction

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Authors: Mert Kıranç, Ekrem Duman, Murat Özbilen

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In order to achieve new product development (NPD) activities on time and within budgetary constraints, the NPD managers need a well-designed methodology. This study intends to create an integrated project management methodology for the ones who focus on new product development projects. In the scope of the study, four different management systems are combined. These systems are called as 'Schedule-oriented Stage-Gate Method, Risk Management, Change Management and Earned Value Management'. New product development term is quite common in many different industries such as defense industry, construction, health care/dental, higher education, fast moving consumer goods, white goods, electronic devices, marketing and advertising and software development. All product manufacturers run against each other’s for introducing a new product to the market. In order to achieve to produce a more competitive product in the market, an optimum project management methodology is chosen, and this methodology is adapted to company culture. The right methodology helps the company to present perfect product to the customers at the right time. The benefits of proposed methodology are discussed as an application by a company. As a result, how the integrated methodology improves the efficiency and how it achieves the success of the project are unfolded.

Keywords: project, project management, management methodology, new product development, risk management, change management, earned value, stage-gate

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Authors: Hatem K. Hamed, Mohamed S. Hrouda

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The Middle Paleocene Lower Beda Formation was deposited in a ramp system with local shoaling. The main constituent is limestone, with subordinate dolomites and Shales. Reservoir quality is largely influenced by depositional environments and diagenesis processes. Generally the reservoir quality of Lower Beda Formation is low risk on the Inferred Horst and in the Southern Shelf where the Lower Beda formation comprises mainly of calcarenties. In the vicinity of the well GG1 the Lower Beda comprise mainly of argillaceous calcilutites and shale. The reservoir quality gradually improves from high risk to moderate risk towards KK1, LL1 and NN1 wells. The average gross thickness of Lower Beda Formation is about 300 ft. The net thickness varies from about 270 ft. in the E1-71 well to about 30 ft. in the vicinity of GG1-71 well. The net thickest of Lower Beda form a NNW-SSW trend with an average of 250 ft. the change in facies is due to change in the depositional environment, from lagoonal to shoal barrier to open marine affected the reservoir quality. The Upper Cretaceous Sirte Shale is the main source rock. It is developed within the three troughs surrounding the study area. S-Marada Trough to the N- E, Gerad Trough to the N N-W, and Abu Tummym Sub-basin to the S-W of the Inferred Horst. Sirte shale reaches 1000ft, of organically rich section. It has good organic contents over large area 2% to 3%. Hydrocarbon shows were encountered in several wells in Beda Formation this is an indication of vertical and lateral migration of hydrocarbon. The overlying Upper Paleocene Khalifa Formation is a transgressive shale, it is an effective regional top seal. Lithofacies variations in Khalifa Shale, from shales to limestones in the southern shelf in R1-71 well approximately 50-75% of the secession is limestone. About 47 million barrel of hydrocarbon recoverable reserves is expected to be trapped in structural and stratigraphic traps in Beda Formation in the study area.

Keywords: Sirte basin, Beda formation, concession 71, petroleum play fairway analysis

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Authors: Molla Tadesse Lakew

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Researchers tried to find out the socio-economic and supply-side constraint factors to adoption. However, they overlooked the role of social networks and relationships among the community. Therefore, the aims of this review were to review the roles and negative effects of social capital. Based on its contents, relevancy, and time duration, only 121 (journals, books, and paper reports) were selected. It concludes that social capital has an indispensable role in facilitating cooperation and connection between members of the farmers' community, informal and experiential knowledge sharing, and access to research-based knowledge and contributes to reducing the transaction cost of adoption. On the contrary, inside the black box of social capital, the negative effects include the exclusion of outsider’s knowledge and experiences, excessive claims on group members, and restrictions on individual freedom.

Keywords: social capital, local institutions, adoption, Ethiopia

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Authors: Philip Feig, Klaus Gschwendtner, Julian Schatz, Frank Diermeyer

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Projects of accident research analysis are mostly focused on accidents involving personal damage. Property damage only has a high frequency of occurrence combined with high economic impact. This paper describes main influencing parameters for the extent of damage and presents a repair cost model. For a prospective evaluation method of the monetary effect of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), it is necessary to be aware of and quantify all influencing parameters. Furthermore, this method allows the evaluation of vehicle concepts in combination with an ADAS at an early point in time of the product development process. In combination with a property damage database and the introduced repair cost model relevant test scenarios for specific vehicle configurations and their individual property damage risk may be determined. Currently, equipment rates of ADAS are low and a purchase incentive for customers would be beneficial. The next ADAS generation will prevent property damage to a large extent or at least reduce damage severity. Both effects may be a purchasing incentive for the customer and furthermore contribute to increased traffic safety.

Keywords: accident research, accident scenarios, ADAS, effectiveness, property damage analysis

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Authors: Luis Fonseca, Filipe Cabral Pinto, Susana Sargento

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The increase of the world population, especially in large urban centers, has resulted in new challenges particularly with the control and optimization of public safety. Thus, in the present work, a solution is proposed for the prediction of criminal occurrences in a city based on historical data of incidents and demographic information. The entire research and implementation will be presented start with the data collection from its original source, the treatment and transformations applied to them, choice and the evaluation and implementation of the Machine Learning model up to the application layer. Classification models will be implemented to predict criminal risk for a given time interval and location. Machine Learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbors and Logistic Regression will be used to predict occurrences, and their performance will be compared according to the data processing and transformation used. The results show that the use of Machine Learning techniques helps to anticipate criminal occurrences, which contributed to the reinforcement of public security. Finally, the models were implemented on a platform that will provide an API to enable other entities to make requests for predictions in real-time. An application will also be presented where it is possible to show criminal predictions visually.

Keywords: crime prediction, machine learning, public safety, smart city

Procedia PDF Downloads 94

Authors: Aschenaki Zerihun Kea, Bernt Lindtjorn, Achamyelesh Gebretsadik, Sven Gudmund Hinderaker

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Introduction: Maternal mortality studies conducted at the national level do not provide the information needed for planning and monitoring health programs at lower administrative levels. The aim of this study was to measure maternal mortality, identify risk factors and district-level variations in Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia. Methods: A cross sectional population-based survey was carried out in households where women reported pregnancy and birth outcomes in the past five years. The study was conducted in the Sidama National Regional State, southern Ethiopia, from July 2019 to May 2020. Multi-stage cluster sampling technique was employed. The outcome variable of the study was maternal mortality. Complex sample logistic regression analysis was applied to assess variables independently associated with maternal mortality. Results: We registered 10602 live births (LB) and 48 maternal deaths, yielding an overall maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 419; 95% CI: 260-577 per 100,000 LB. Aroresa district had the highest MMR with 1142 (95% CI: 693-1591) per 100,000 LB. Leading causes of death were haemorrhage 21 (41%) and eclampsia 10 (27%). Thirty (59%) mothers died during labour, or within 24 hours after delivery, 25 (47%) died at home and 17 (38%) at a health facility. Mothers who did not have formal education had a higher risk of maternal death (AOR: 4.4; 95% CI: 1.7 – 11.0). The risk of maternal death was higher in districts with a low midwife-to-population ratio (AOR: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.0-8.9). Conclusion: The high maternal mortality with district-level variations in Sidama Region highlights the importance of improving obstetric care and employing targeted interventions in areas with high mortality rates. Due attention should be given to improving access to female education. Additional midwives have to be trained and deployed to improve maternal health services and consequently save the lives of mothers.

Keywords: maternal mortality variation, maternal death, Sidama, Ethiopia

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Authors: Mkhokheli Sithole, Brenda N. Muchapondwa

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Food security is becoming a critical issue for people residing mainly in the rural areas where frequent droughts interrupt food production, reduce income, compromise the ability to save and erode livelihoods. This tends to increase the vulnerability of poor households to food and income insecurity, hence, malnutrition. There is an emerging need for DRR strategies to complement the existing rain fed crop production based livelihoods. One of such strategies employed by the community of Nerumedzo in Bikita district is the harvesting of Encosternum delegorguei insect. This article analyses the livelihood impacts of Encosternum delegorguei insect as a DRR strategy. The research used a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. The insect samples were tested in the laboratory for their nutritional composition while surveys were done on a sample of 40 community members. Participatory observations and 5 focus group discussions were also done. The results revealed that harvesting the Encosternum delegorguei insects provides a livelihood for the locals by complementing crop production thereby mitigating potential negative effects of frequent droughts. The insects are now a significant source of income to poor households in the community.

Keywords: disaster risk reduction, livelihoods, human, social sciences

Procedia PDF Downloads 184