Search results for: negative emotions in crisis

Authors: Sibel Ecemiş Kılıç, Muhammed Aydoğan

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The rapid development of culture tourism has drawn attention to conserving cultural values especially by developing countries that would like to benefit from the economic contribution this type of tourism attracts. Tourism can have both positive and negative outcomes for historical settlements and their residents. The accommodation-purposed rehabilitation and revitalization project in “Sigacik Old City Zone” are to be discussed with spatial, economic, social and organizational dimensions. It is aimed to evaluate the relationship between the development of tourism and sustainable heritage conservation.

Keywords: Sığacık, urban conservation, sustainable tourism, Seferihisar

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Authors: Laura O’Halloran, Zhipeng Cao, Clare M. Kelly, Hugh Garavan, Robert Whelan

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Reaction time (RT) variability on cognitive tasks provides the index of the efficiency of executive control processes (e.g. attention and inhibitory control) and is considered to be a hallmark of clinical disorders, such as attention-deficit disorder (ADHD). Increased RT variability is associated with structural and functional brain differences in children and adults with various clinical disorders, as well as poorer task performance accuracy. Furthermore, the strength of functional connectivity across various brain networks, such as the negative relationship between the task-negative default mode network and task-positive attentional networks, has been found to reflect differences in RT variability. Although RT variability may provide an index of attentional efficiency, as well as being a useful indicator of neurological impairment, the brain substrates associated with RT variability remain relatively poorly defined, particularly in a healthy sample. Method: Firstly, we used the intra-individual coefficient of variation (ICV) as an index of RT variability from “Go” responses on the Stop Signal Task. We then examined the functional and structural neural correlates of ICV in a large sample of 14-year old healthy adolescents (n=1719). Of these, a subset had elevated symptoms of ADHD (n=80) and was compared to a matched non-symptomatic control group (n=80). The relationship between brain activity during successful and unsuccessful inhibitions and gray matter volume were compared with the ICV. A mediation analysis was conducted to examine if specific brain regions mediated the relationship between ADHD symptoms and ICV. Lastly, we looked at functional connectivity across various brain networks and quantified both positive and negative correlations during “Go” responses on the Stop Signal Task. Results: The brain data revealed that higher ICV was associated with increased structural and functional brain activation in the precentral gyrus in the whole sample and in adolescents with ADHD symptoms. Lower ICV was associated with lower activation in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and medial frontal gyrus in the whole sample and in the control group. Furthermore, our results indicated that activation in the precentral gyrus (Broadman Area 4) mediated the relationship between ADHD symptoms and behavioural ICV. Conclusion: This is the first study first to investigate the functional and structural correlates of ICV collectively in a large adolescent sample. Our findings demonstrate a concurrent increase in brain structure and function within task-active prefrontal networks as a function of increased RT variability. Furthermore, structural and functional brain activation patterns in the ACC, and medial frontal gyrus plays a role-optimizing top-down control in order to maintain task performance. Our results also evidenced clear differences in brain morphometry between adolescents with symptoms of ADHD but without clinical diagnosis and typically developing controls. Our findings shed light on specific functional and structural brain regions that are implicated in ICV and yield insights into effective cognitive control in healthy individuals and in clinical groups.

Keywords: ADHD, fMRI, reaction-time variability, default mode, functional connectivity

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Authors: M. C. O. Ezeibe, F. I. O. Ezeibe

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Reasons viral diseases (including AI, HIV/AIDS, and COVID-19), tumors (including Cancers and Prostrate enlargement), and antimicrobial-resistant infections (AMR) are difficult to cure are features of the pathogens which normal cells do not have or need (biomedical markers) have not been identified; medicines that can counter the markers have not been invented; strategies and mechanisms for their treatments have not been developed. When cells become abnormal, they acquire negative electrical charges, and viruses are either positively charged or negatively charged, while normal cells remain neutral (without electrical charges). So, opposite charges' electrostatic attraction is a treatment mechanism for viral diseases and tumors. Medicines that have positive electrical charges would mop abnormal (infected and tumor) cells and DNA viruses (negatively charged), while negatively charged medicines would mop RNA viruses (positively charged). Molecules of Aluminum-magnesium silicate [AMS: Al₂Mg₃ (SiO₄)₃], an approved medicine and pharmaceutical stabilizing agent, consist of nanoparticles which have both positive electrically charged ends and negative electrically charged ends. The very small size (0.96 nm) of the nanoparticles allows them to reach all cells in every organ. By stabilizing antimicrobials, AMS reduces the rate at which the body metabolizes them so that they remain at high concentrations for extended periods. When drugs remain at high concentrations for longer periods, their efficacies improve. Again, nanoparticles enhance the delivery of medicines to effect targets. Both remaining at high concentrations for longer periods and better delivery to effect targets improve efficacy and make lower doses achieve desired effects so that side effects of medicines are reduced to allow the immunity of patients to be enhanced. Silicates also enhance the immune responses of treated patients. Improving antimicrobial efficacies and enhancing patients` immunity terminate infections so that none remains that could develop resistance. Some countries do not have natural deposits of AMS, but they may have Aluminum silicate (AS: Al₄ (SiO₄)₃) and Magnesium silicate (MS: Mg₂SiO₄), which are also approved medicines. So, AS and MS were used to formulate an AMS-brand, named Medicinal synthetic AMS {Al₄ (SiO₄)₃ + 3Mg₂SiO₄ → 2Al₂Mg₃ (SiO₄)₃}. To overcome the challenge of AMS, AS, and MS being un-absorbable, Dextrose monohydrate is incorporated in MSAMS-formulations for the simple sugar to convey the electrically charged nanoparticles into blood circulation by the principle of active transport so that MSAMS-antimicrobial formulations function systemically. In vitro, MSAMS reduced (P≤0.05) titers of viruses, including Avian influenza virus and HIV. When used to treat virus-infected animals, it cured Newcastle disease and Infectious bursa disease of chickens, Parvovirus disease of dogs, and Peste des petits ruminants disease of sheep and goats. A number of HIV/AIDS patients treated with it have been reported to become HIV-negative (antibody and antigen). COVID-19 patients are also reported to recover and test virus negative when treated with MSAMS. PSA titers of prostate cancer/enlargement patients normalize (≤4) following treatment with MSAMS. MSAMS has also potentiated ampicillin trihydrate, sulfadimidin, cotrimoxazole, piparazine citrate and chloroquine phosphate to achieve ≥ 95 % infection-load reductions (AMR-prevention). At 75 % of doses of ampicillin, cotrimoxazole, and streptomycin, supporting MSAMS-formulations' treatments with antioxidants led to the termination of even already resistant infections.

Keywords: electrical charges, viruses, abnormal cells, aluminum-magnesium silicate

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Authors: S. Ramia, N. Melhem, K. Kreidieh

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The world is facing an unprecedented displacement crisis. Recently, over 1.1 million asylum seekers have been granted protection status in the European Union (EU). The majority of these asylum seekers were from countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.This influx carries with it a potential introduction of infectious diseases that have been eliminated in the EU, which poses a challenge for EU health authorities. Compared to MENA region countries where Hepatitis A Virus (HAV) endemicity is high to intermediate, member states of the EU show very low (Western Europe) to low (Eastern Europe) levels of HAV endemicity. Because of this situation, there is an ongoing public health concern in high-income countries, like members of the EU, that many adults remain susceptible to HAV outbreaks. The overwhelming majority of the EU members’ states do not include HAV vaccine in their immunization calendars. Hence, this paper urgently calls for the implementation of new policies regarding HAV in EU members’ states.

Keywords: European union, hepatitis A, MENA region refugees, vaccine preventable diseases

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Authors: Astha Sinha, Anjali Kanagali

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The United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union, also termed as “Brexit,” took place on June 23, 2016 and immediately had global repercussions on the stock markets of the world. It is however expected to have a greater impact on the Banking sector in the UK. There is a two-fold effect on the earnings of banks which is being expected. First is of the trading activity and investment banking businesses being hit due to global weakness in financial markets. Second is that the banks having a large presence in the European Union will have to restructure their operations in order to cover other European countries as well increase their operating costs. As per the analysis, banks are expected to face rate cuts, bad loans, and tight liquidity. The directives in the Brexit negotiations on the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) will be a major decision to be taken for the Banking sector. New regulations will be required since most of the regulations governing the financial services industry allowing for the cross-border transactions were at the EU level. This paper aims to analyze the effect of Brexit on the UK Banking sector and changes in regulations that are expected due to the same. It shall also lay down the lessons learnt from the 2008 financial crisis and draw a parallel in terms of potential areas to be focused on for revival of the financial sector of Britain.

Keywords: Brexit, Brexit impact on UK, impact of Brexit on banking, impact of Brexit on financial services

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Authors: Emin Avcı, Çiydem Çatak

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The recent economic crisis have shown that procyclicality, which could threaten the stability and growth of the economy, is a major problem of financial and real sector. The term procyclicality refers here the cyclical behavior of banks that lead them to follow the same patterns as the real economy. In this study, leverage which demonstrate how a bank manage its debt, is chosen as bank specific variable to see the effect of changes in it over the economic cycle. The procyclical behavior of Turkish banking sector (commercial, participation, development-investment banks) is tried to explain with analyzing the relationship between leverage and asset growth. On the basis of theoretical explanations, eight different leverage ratios are utilized in eight different panel data models to demonstrate the procyclicality effect of Turkish banks leverage using monthly data covering the 2005-2014 period. It is tested whether there is an increasing (decreasing) trend in the leverage ratio of Turkish banks when there is an enlargement (contraction) in their balance sheet. The major finding of the study indicates that asset growth has a significant effect on all eight leverage ratios. In other words, the leverage of Turkish banks follow a cyclical pattern, which is in line with those of earlier literature.

Keywords: banking, economic cycles, leverage, procyclicality

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Authors: Juliet Ramohai

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This paper explores how women departmental heads in higher education experience leadership in a time of the COVID-19 crises. The focus is mostly on their care and coping as they work in virtual spaces. Most scholars have looked at the effects and challenges that different employees face while working from home during a lockdown. However, very few take a dedicated focus on women in leadership and the coping mechanisms and resources that they use for effective leadership during this difficult time. The paper draws on two aspects of Sen’s Capabilities approach, functionings, and agency, to cast a closer understanding of the institutional and individual coping mechanisms that might be at these women's disposal. The qualitative approach used for this paper and a feminist lens provides a critical and in-depth understanding of the real-life stories of the women and how they make sense of their virtual leadership. Data for this paper was collected through semi-structured interviews with 10 women in the positions of head of departments and analysed thematically using capabilities approach concepts as an analytical tool. The findings in this paper indicate that functionings and freedoms are tightly linked to institutional ethnographies. These ethnographies might support or hamper coping for women leaders, especially during times of crisis.

Keywords: capability approach, women leaders, higher education, COVID-19

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Authors: Yixuan Peng

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Music tourism is the phenomenon of people visiting a place because of their association with music, as well as the process of creating an emotional attachment to a place through the connection between people and music. Music offers people the opportunity to immerse themselves in the local culture. Music tourism is increasingly recognized as an industry with economic and social impacts. People often come together for a common purpose of music at a certain time and place, such as concert, opera, or music workshop. This is very similar to the act of pilgrimage: the process of participation evokes strong emotions; it takes time and money to get to the destination; the gathering, and the emotional co-frequency. This study conducted further qualitative research using MAXQDA by applying the musical topophilia model with East Asians as interview subjects. There are three steps to traveling: before, during and after the trip. To date, 53 individuals living in East Asia have been interviewed one-on-one (online/offline) about their travel experiences. This part of the interview is limited to the two stages that are before and after travel. Based on the results of the interviews above, and as Europe has the most representative music industry and the richest variety of music genres. The " during the trip" phase of the observations and interviews were conducted in Europe and involved on-site music in Salzburg and London, including musical theater, street music, and musical pilgrimages. Interviews with 24 people were conducted in English, Chinese and Japanese. This study will use data to demonstrate the followings: the irreplaceability of music in faraway places; the identity and sense of belonging that music brings; the ethnic barriers that music crosses; and the cultural communication that music enables.

Keywords: belongingness, gathering, modern pilgrimage, anthropology of music, sociology of music

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Authors: Praveen Vayalamkuzhi, Veeraragavan Amirthalingam

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Studies on safety on highways are becoming the need of the hour as over 400 lives are lost every day in India due to road crashes. In order to evaluate the factors that lead to different levels of crash severity, it is necessary to investigate the level of safety of highways and their relation to crashes. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify the factors that contribute to road crashes and to quantify their effect on the severity of road crashes. The study was carried out on a four-lane divided rural highway in India. The variables considered in the analysis includes components of horizontal alignment of highway, viz., straight or curve section; time of day, driveway density, presence of median; median opening; gradient; operating speed; and annual average daily traffic. These variables were considered after a preliminary analysis. The major complexities in the study are the heterogeneous traffic and the speed variation between different classes of vehicles along the highway. To quantify the impact of each of these factors, statistical analyses were carried out using Logit model and also negative binomial regression. The output from the statistical models proved that the variables viz., horizontal components of the highway alignment; driveway density; time of day; operating speed as well as annual average daily traffic show significant relation with the severity of crashes viz., fatal as well as injury crashes. Further, the annual average daily traffic has significant effect on the severity compared to other variables. The contribution of highway horizontal components on crash severity is also significant. Logit models can predict crashes better than the negative binomial regression models. The results of the study will help the transport planners to look into these aspects at the planning stage itself in the case of highways operated under heterogeneous traffic flow condition.

Keywords: geometric design, heterogeneous traffic, road crash, statistical analysis, level of safety

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Authors: Sobia Shafqat, Saeed Ahmad Qaisrani

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MicroRNAs play an essential role in the regulation and development of all processes in most eukaryotes because of their prospective part as mediators controlling cell growth and differentiation towards the exact position of RNAs response in plants under biotic and abiotic factors or stressors. In a few cases, Zn is oblivious poisonous for plants due to its heavy metal status. Some other metals are extremely toxic, like Cd, Hg, and Pb, but these elements require in rice for the programming of genes under abiotic stress resembling Zn stress when micro RNAs268 was importantly introduced in rice. The micro RNAs overexpressed in transgenic plants with an accumulation of a large amount of melanin dialdehyde, hydrogen peroxide, and an excessive quantity of Zn in the seedlings stage. Let out results for rice pliability under Zn stress micro RNAs act as negative controllers. But the role of micro RNA268 act as a modulator in different ecological condition. It has been explained clearly with a long understanding of the role of micro RNA268 under stress conditions; pliability and practically showed outcome to increase plant sufferance under Zn stress because micro RNAs is an intervention technique for gene regulation in gene expression. The proposed study was experimented with by using genetic factors of Zn stress and toxicity effect on rice plants done at District Vehari, Pakistan. The trial was performed randomly with three replications in a complete block design (RCBD). These blocks were controlled with different concentrations of genetic factors. By overexpression of micro RNA268 rice, seedling growth was not stopped under Zn deficiency due to the accumulation of a large amount of melanin dialdehyde, hydrogen peroxide, and an excessive quantity of Zn in their seedlings. Results showed that micro RNA268 act as a negative controller under Zn stress. In the end, under stress conditions, micro RNA268 showed the necessary function in the tolerance of rice plants. The directorial work sketch gave out high agronomic applications and yield outcomes in rice with a specific amount of Zn application.

Keywords: micro RNA268, zinc, rice, agronomic approach

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Authors: Sobhan Sobhani

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This study examined the behavioral patterns of student and their determinants according to the "symbolic interaction" sociological perspective in the form of 7 hypotheses. Behavioral patterns of students were classified in 8 categories: religious, scientific, political, artistic, sporting, national, parents and teachers. They were evaluated by student opinions by a five-point Likert rating scale. The statistical population included all male and female students of Islamic Azad University, Behabahan branch, among which 600 patients (268 females and 332 males) were selected randomly. The following statistical methods were used: frequency and percentage, mean, t-test, Pearson correlation coefficient and multi-way analysis of variance. The results obtained from statistical analysis showed that: 1-There is a significant difference between male and female students in terms of disposition to religious figures, artists, teachers and parents. 2-There is a significant difference between students of urban and rural areas in terms of assuming behavioral patterns of religious, political, scientific, artistic, national figures and teachers. 3-The most important criterion for selecting behavioral patterns of students is intellectual understanding with the pattern. 4-The most important factor influencing the behavioral patterns of male and female students is parents followed by friends. 5-Boys are affected by teachers, the Internet and satellite programs more than girls. Girls assume behavioral patterns from books more than boys. 6-There is a significant difference between students in human sciences, technical, medical and engineering disciplines in terms of selecting religious and political figures as behavioral patterns. 7-There is a significant difference between students belonging to different subcultures in terms of assuming behavioral patterns of religious, scientific and cultural figures. 8-Between the first and fourth year students in terms of selecting behavioral patterns, there is a significant difference only in selecting religious figures. 9-There is a significant negative correlation between the education level of parents and the selection of religious and political figures and teachers. 10-There is a significant negative correlation between family income and the selection of political and religious figures.

Keywords: behavioral patterns, behavioral patterns, male and female students, Islamic Azad University

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Authors: K. S. Kan

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The main purpose of this paper is to deepen the current understanding of how a Teaching English as a Second Language (TESL) teacher trainee self is constructed. The present aim of Malaysian TESL teacher education is to train teacher trainees with established English Language Teaching methodologies of the four main language skills (listening, reading, writing and speaking) apart from building them up holistically. Therefore, it is crucial to learn more of the ways on how these teacher trainees construct their professional selves during their undergraduate years. The participants come from a class of 17 Semester 6 TESL students who had undergone a 3-month’s practicum practice during their fifth semester and going for their final 3 month’s practicum period from July 2018 onwards. Findings from a survey, interviews with the participants and lecturers, documentations such as the participants’ practicum record-books would be consolidated with the supervisory notes and comments. The findings suggest that these teacher trainees negotiate their identities and emotions that react with the socio-cultural factors. Periodical reflections on the teacher trainees’ practicum practices influence transformation.The findings will be further aligned to the courses that these teacher trainees have to take in order to equip them as future second language practitioners. It is hoped that the findings will be able to fill the gap from the teacher trainees’ perspectives on identity construction dealing. This study is much more significant now, in view of the new English Language Curriculum for Primary School (widely known as KSSR, its Malay acronym) which had been introduced and implemented in Malaysian primary schools recently. This research will benefit second language practitioners who is in the language education field, as well as, TESL undergraduates, on the knowledge of how teacher trainees respond to and negotiate their professional teaching identities as future second language educators.

Keywords: construction of selves, professional identities, second language, TEST teacher trainees

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Authors: Mirele Plenishti

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Revisionist powers are sometimes associated to revolutionary and status quo powers, this because along the line representing the level of satisfaction–dissatisfaction with the system, revisionist powers are located in between status quo and revolutionary powers. In particular, the case of revisionist powers seeking for social status adjustments (while having status quo intentions) can, in the first option, be refuted due to the disbelief that dissatisfaction could coexist with status quo intentions – this entailing the possibility to trigger a spiral effect by over-counter-reacting. In the second option, revisionist powers can be underestimated as a real threat, this entailing a potential inadequate reaction. The necessity to well manage international change entails the need to understand better how revisionist powers seek for changes in status, within the system. The complexity of this case is heightened by the propensity of both IR scholars and practitioners to infer states' aims and intentions – towards the system – by looking at their behaviours. This has resulted in the tendency to consider cooperative international behaviours as symptomatic of status quo intentions, and vice versa: status quo intentions as manifested through positive/cooperative behaviours. Similarly, assertive/competitive international behaviours are considered as symptomatic (and vice versa, as manifestations) of revolutionary intentions. Therefore, within complex and composite foreign policies, scholars who disbelieve the existence of revisionist powers with status quo intentions, tend to highlight the negative/competitive elements; while more optimist scholars tend to focus on conforming/cooperative behaviours. Both perspectives, while understanding relevant components of the complex international interaction, still miss a composite overview. In order to closely investigate the strategies adopted by (status quo aiming) revisionist states, and by drawing on sociological studies on peer relations, focused on children's behaviour, one could expect that the compresence of both positive (compliant/cooperative) and negative (competitive/assertive) behaviours, is deliberate, and functional to seeking social status adjustments. Indeed, at the end of 90s, peer relation studies focused on children's behaviour, discerned between the concept of social acceptance (that refers to the degree of social preference assigned to the child– how much is s/he liked) and popularity (which refers to the social status assigned to the child within the group). By building on this distinction, it was possible to identify a link relating social acceptance to prosocial (compliant/cooperative) behaviours and strategies, and popularity to both prosocial and antisocial (aggressive/assertive) behaviours and strategies. Since then, antisocial behaviours ceased to be considered as a proof of social maladjustment and were finally identified as socially recognized strategies adopted in function of the achievement of popularity. Drawing on these results, one can hypothesize that also international status seekers perform both positive (conforming/compliant/cooperative) and negative (assertive/aggressive/competitive) behaviours. Therefore, the link between aims and behaviours loses its strength, since cooperative and competitive behaviours are both means for status seeking strategies that aim at status quo intentions. By carrying out a historical investigation of Italy's foreign policy during fascism, the intent is to closely look at this compresence of behaviours, in order to better qualify its components and their relations.

Keywords: compresence of cooperative and competitive behaviours and strategies, revisionist powers, status quo intentions, status seeking

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Authors: Yahya Almurtadha, Mukhtar Ghaleb, Ahmed M. Shamsan Saleh

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The world witnessed a fierce attack from the Covid-19 virus, which affected public life socially, economically, healthily and psychologically. The world's governments tried to confront the pandemic by imposing a number of precautionary measures such as general closure, curfews and social distancing. Scientists have also made strenuous efforts to develop an effective vaccine to train the immune system to develop antibodies to combat the virus, thus reducing its symptoms and limiting its spread. Artificial intelligence, along with researchers and medical authorities, has accelerated the vaccine development process through big data processing and simulation. On the other hand, one of the most important negatives of the impact of Covid 19 was the state of anxiety and fear due to the blowout of rumors through social media, which prompted governments to try to reassure the public with the available means. This study aims to proposed using Sentiment Analysis (AKA Opinion Mining) and deep learning as efficient artificial intelligence techniques to work on retrieving the tweets of the public from Twitter and then analyze it automatically to extract their opinions, expression and feelings, negatively or positively, about the symptoms they may feel after vaccination. Sentiment analysis is characterized by its ability to access what the public post in social media within a record time and at a lower cost than traditional means such as questionnaires and interviews, not to mention the accuracy of the information as it comes from what the public expresses voluntarily.

Keywords: deep learning, opinion mining, natural language processing, sentiment analysis

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Authors: B. M. Moda, L. F. Secco

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Through free and fair elections and others less democratic processes, Latin America has been gradually turning into a right-wing political region. In order to understand these recent changes, this paper aims to discuss the origin and the traits of the pink wave in the subcontinent, the reasons for its current rollback and future projections for left-wing in the region. The methodology used in this paper will be descriptive and analytical combined with secondary sources mainly from the social and political sciences fields. The canons of the Washington Consensus was implemented by the majority of the Latin American governments in the 80s and 90s under the social democratic and right-wing parties. The neoliberal agenda caused political, social and economic dissatisfaction bursting into a new political configuration for the region. It started in 1998 when Hugo Chávez took the office in Venezuela through the Fifth Republic Movement under the socialist flag. From there on, Latin America was swiped by the so-called ‘pink wave’, term adopted to define the rising of self-designated left-wing or center-left parties with a progressive agenda. After Venezuela, countries like Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia, Equator, Nicaragua, Paraguay, El Salvador and Peru got into the pink wave. The success of these governments was due a post-neoliberal agenda focused on cash transfers programs, increasing of public spending, and the straightening of national market. The discontinuation of the preference for the left-wing started in 2012 with the coup against Fernando Lugo in Paraguay. In 2015, the chavismo in Venezuela lost the majority of the legislative seats. In 2016, an impeachment removed the Brazilian president Dilma Rousself from office who was replaced by the center-right vice-president Michel Temer. In the same year, Mauricio Macri representing the right-wing party Proposta Republicana was elected in Argentina. In 2016 center-right and liberal, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski was elected in Peru. In 2017, Sebastián Piñera was elected in Chile through the center-right party Renovación Nacional. The pink wave current rollback points towards some findings that can be arranged in two fields. Economically, the 2008 financial crisis affected the majority of the Latin American countries and the left-wing economic policies along with the end of the raw materials boom and the subsequent shrinking of economic performance opened a flank for popular dissatisfaction. In Venezuela, the 2014 oil crisis reduced the revenues for the State in more than 50% dropping social spending, creating an inflationary spiral, and consequently loss of popular support. Politically, the death of Hugo Chavez in 2013 weakened the ‘socialism of the twenty first century’ ideal, which was followed by the death of Fidel Castro, the last bastion of communism in the subcontinent. In addition, several cases of corruption revealed during the pink wave governments made the traditional politics unpopular. These issues challenge the left-wing to develop a future agenda based on innovation of its economic program, improve its legal and political compliance practices, and to regroup its electoral forces amid the social movements that supported its ascension back in the early 2000s.

Keywords: Latin America, political parties, left-wing, right-wing, pink wave

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Authors: Annabel Burnley, Michelle St. Clair, Charlotte Dack, Yvonne Wren

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Children with Developmental Language Disorder (DLD) are well documented to experience social and emotional difficulties. Despite this, there is little consensus as to how these difficulties manifest, without which the ability to develop prevention initiatives is limited. An online survey was completed by 107 parents of either child with DLD (‘DLD sample’; n=57), or typically developing children (‘typical sample’; n=50), all aged 6-12 years old. Psychosocial symptom measures were used, alongside 11 psychosocial statements generated from previous qualitative work. Qualitative interviews were then held to understand the manifestation of key difficulties in more depth (n=4). The DLD sample scored significantly higher on all psychosocial statements than the typical sample. Experiencing anxiety (80.7%), requiring routine and sameness (75.4%) and struggling to regulate their emotions (75.4%) were the most common difficulties for a majority of children with DLD. For this DLD sample, family communication and coping styles were found not to contribute to the manifestation of these difficulties. Two separate mediation models were run to understand the role of other psychosocial difficulties in the manifestation of (1) anxiety and (2) social frustration. ‘Intolerance of uncertainty was found to strongly mediate the relationship between DLD diagnosis and symptoms of anxiety. Emotion regulation was found to moderately mediate the relationship between DLD diagnosis and social frustration. Parents appear to cope well with their children’s complex psychosocial needs, but further external intervention is needed. Intervention focussing on intolerance of uncertainty and emotion dysregulation may help the management of anxiety and social frustration. Further research is needed to understand the children’s routined behaviors.

Keywords: psychosocial difficulties, developmental language disorder, specific language impairment, parent, anxiety

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Authors: Genevieve Zingg

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Since the onset of the 2015 ‘refugee crisis’ in the European Union (EU), migrant deaths have overwhelmingly occurred in the Mediterranean Sea. However, far less attention has been paid to the startling number of injuries, deaths, and allegations of systematic human rights violations occurring within European refugee camps. Most troubling is the assertion that injuries and deaths in EU refugee camps have occurred as a result of negligent management and poor access to healthcare, food, water and sanitation, and other elements that comprise an adequate standard of living under international human rights law. Using available evidence and documentation, this paper will conduct a thorough examination of the causes of death and injury in EU refugee camps, with a specific focus on Greece, in order to identify instances of negligence or conditions that amount to potential breaches of human rights law. Based on its analysis, this paper will subsequently explore potential legal avenues to achieving justice and accountability under international human rights law in order to effectively address and remedy inadequate standards of living causing wrongful death or injury in European refugee camps.

Keywords: European Union, Greece, human rights, international human rights law, migration, refugees

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Authors: Barry D. Kyle, Jessica Boyd, Robin Pickersgill, Nicole Squires, Cynthia Balion

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Background-Aim: Fentanyl is a highly-potent synthetic μ-opioid receptor agonist used for exceptional pain management. Its main metabolite, norfentanyl, is typically present in urine at significantly high concentrations (i.e. ~20%) representing an effective targeting molecule for immunoassay detection. Here, we evaluated the NCS^TM One Step Fentanyl Test Device© and the BTNX Rapid Response^TM Single Drug Test Strip© point of care (POC) test strips targeting norfentanyl (20 ng/ml) and fentanyl (100 ng/ml) molecules for potential risperidone interference. Methods: POC tests calibrated against norfentanyl (20 ng/ml) used [immunochromatographic] lateral flow devices to provide qualitative results within five minutes of urine sample contact. Results were recorded as negative if lines appeared in the test and control regions according to manufacturer’s instructions. Positive results were recorded if no line appeared in the test region (i.e., control line only visible). Pooled patient urine (n=20), that screened negative for drugs of abuse (using NCS One Step Multi-Line Screen) and fentanyl (using BTNX Rapid Response Strip) was used for spiking studies. Urine was spiked with risperidone alone and with combinations of fentanyl, norfentanyl and/or risperidone to evaluate cross-reactivity in each test device. Results: A positive screen result was obtained when 8,000 ng/mL of risperidone was spiked into drug free urine using the NCS test device. Positive screen results were also obtained in spiked urine samples containing fentanyl and norfentanyl combinations below the cut-off concentrations when 4000 ng/mL risperidone was present using the NCS testing device. There were no screen positive test results using the BTNX test strip with up to 8,000 ng/mL alone or in combination with concentrations of fentanyl and norfentanyl below the cut-off. Both devices screened positive when either fentanyl or norfentanyl exceeded the cut-off threshold in the absence and presence of risperidone. Conclusion: We report that urine samples containing risperidone may give a false positive result using the NCS One Step Fentanyl Test Device.

Keywords: fentanyl, interferences, point of care test, Risperidone

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Authors: Zintle Sikhunyana

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Management of public finance in many countries such as South Africa is affected by political decisions and by policies around fiscal decentralization amongst the government spheres. Economic success is said to be determined by efficient management of public finance and by the policies or strategies that are implemented to support efficient public finance management. Policymakers focus on pay attention to how economic policies have been implemented and how they are directed into ensuring stable development. This will allow policymakers to address economic challenges through the usage of fiscal policy parameters that are linked to the achieved rate of economic growth and development. Efficient public finance management reduces the likelihood of corruption and corruption is said to have negative effects on economic growth and development. Corruption in public finance refers to an act of using funds for personal benefits. To achieve macroeconomic objectives, governments make use of government expenditure and government expenditure is financed through tax revenue. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the potential impact of public finance management on economic growth and development in South Africa. The secondary data obtained from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and World Bank for 1980- 2020 has been utilized to achieve the research objectives. To test the impact of public finance management on economic growth and development, the study will use Seeming Unrelated Regression Equation (SURE) Modelling that allows researchers to model multiple equations with interdependent variables. The advantages of using SUR are that it efficiently allows estimation of relationships between variables by combining information on different equations and SUR test restrictions that involve parameters in different equations. The findings have shown that there is a positive relationship between efficient public finance management and economic growth/development. The findings also show that efficient public finance management has an indirect positive impact on economic growth and development. Corruption has a negative impact on economic growth and development. It results in an efficient allocation of government resources and thereby improves economic growth and development. The study recommends that governments who aim to stimulate economic growth and development should target and strengthen public finance management policies or strategies.

Keywords: corruption, economic growth, economic development, public finance management, fiscal decentralization

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Authors: Fadeke Olu-Owolabi, Fayomi Oluyemi

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The political and societal orders face the awesome task of overcoming the difficulties which lead to growing tensions and conflicts in Africa. At the core of analysis is the question, how stable and adaptable are established democracies, new democracies, and political and societal actors? The idea of development-democracy as implying the strong linkage between economic development and political democracy appropriately describes the distinguishing characteristic of this new demand for democracy in Africa. The theoretical study examines the political and philosophical foundation of the idea of development-democracy and the arguments presented to support the need for its adoption in Africa today. This paper critically examines the polemic between the advocates of developmental dictatorship and developmental-democracy and argues for the adoption of the latter in Africa. The paper sets out to expose for the political and philosophical foundation of developmental democracy maintaining that only democracy can facilitate development. This argument is supported further by the claim that both democracy and development are two sides of the same coin in the sense that the two are both ethical concepts. The paper also maintained that the only way by which democracy is worthwhile is when it is developmental. Finally, the paper affirms that since the two concepts of democracy and development are like the Siamese twins then the way out of Africa’s present crisis of development is to wholeheartedly embrace democracy. It posits that when genuine democracy is adopted, genuine and sustainable development can then be attained.

Keywords: democracy, development, polemic, principles

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Authors: Fadeke E. Olu-Owolabi, Fayomi Oluyemi

Abstract:

The political and societal orders face the awesome task of overcoming the difficulties which lead to growing tensions and conflicts in Africa. At the core of analysis is the question, how stable and adaptable are established democracies, new democracies, and political and societal actors? The idea of development-democracy as implying the strong linkage between economic development and political democracy appropriately describes the distinguishing characteristic of this new demand for democracy in Africa. The theoretical study examines the political and philosophical foundation of the idea of development-democracy and the arguments presented to support the need for its adoption in Africa today. This paper critically examines the polemic between the advocates of developmental dictatorship and developmental-democracy and argues for the adoption of the latter in Africa. The paper sets out to expose for the political and philosophical foundation of developmental democracy maintaining that only democracy can facilitate development. This argument is supported further by the claim that both democracy and development are two sides of the same coin in the sense that the two are both ethical concepts. The paper also maintained that the only way by which democracy is worthwhile is when it is developmental. Finally the paper affirms that since the two concepts of democracy and development are like the Siamese twins then the way out of Africa’s present crisis of development is to wholeheartedly embrace democracy. It posits that when genuine democracy is adopted, genuine and sustainable development can then be attained.

Keywords: democracy, development, polemic, principles

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Authors: Zhala Ahmad, Zainab Lazim, Haider Hamzah

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Bacterial resistance is a pressing global health issue, with multidrug-resistant (MDR), extensively drug-resistant (XDR), and pandrug-resistant (PDR) strains to pose a serious threat. In this context, researchers are investigating effective, safe, and affordable metabolites to combat these pathogens. This study focuses on gum essential oil (GEO) extracted from Pistacia atlantica and its activity and the mechanism of action against XDR Gram-negative Acinetobacter baumannii. GEO was extracted by hydrodistillation and analyzed using GC-MS. Eleven A. baumannii isolates were collected from the ward environment of Burn and Plastic Surgery Hospital in Al Sulaymaniyah City, Iraq. They were identified using the VITEK 2 system, 16S rRNA gene, and confirmed with the blaₒₓₐ₋₅₁ gene; A. baumannii ATCC 19606 was used as a reference strain. The isolates were identified as resistant to twelve different antibiotics spanning six distinct antibiotic classes while showing susceptibility to tetracycline and trimethoprim. Over 40 chemical constituents were detected in the gum's essential oils, with α-pinene being the most abundant. GEO was found to inhibit the growth of A. baumannii isolates; the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of GEO was 2.5 µl/ml. GEO induced protein leakage, phosphate, and potassium ion efflux, distorted cell morphology, and cell death in the tested bacteria. GEO exhibited bacterial clearance and anti-adhesion activity using Band-Aids. This study's findings suggest that GEO could be used as a potential alternative treatment for infectious diseases caused by XRD pathogens, shedding further light on the importance of GEO in biomedical applications. Future studies must focus on generating clinically feasible sources of GEO for testing in small animal models before proceeding to human trials, ensuring safe and effective translation from the laboratory to the clinic.

Keywords: antibiotic resistance, Acinetobacter baumannii, essential oils, Pistacia atlantica, alpha-pinene

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Authors: Mythri G., Manjunath ML, Girish Babu M., Shireen Swaliha Quadri

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Background: The increase in diabetes among the elderly is of concern because in addition to the wide range of traditional diabetes complications, evidence has been growing that diabetes is associated with increased risk of cognitive decline. Aims and Objectives: To find out if there is any association between blood sugar levels and short-term and working memory status in patients of type 2 diabetes. Materials and Methods: The study was carried out in 200 individuals aged between 40-65 years consisting of 100 diagnosed cases of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and 100 non-diabetics from OPD of Mc Gann Hospital, Shivamogga. Rye’s Auditory Verbal Learning Test, Verbal Fluency Test and Visual Reproduction Test, Working Digit Span Test and Validation Span Test were used to assess short-term and working memory. Fasting and Post Prandial blood sugar levels were estimated. Statistical analysis was done using SPSS 21. Results: Memory test scores of type 2 diabetics were significantly reduced (p < 0.001) when compared to the memory scores of age and gender matched non-diabetics. Fasting blood sugar levels were found to have a negative correlation with memory scores for all 5 tests: AVLT (r=-0.837), VFT (r=-0.888), VRT(r=-0.787), WDST (r=-0.795) and VST (r=-0.943). Post- Prandial blood sugar levels were found to have a negative correlation with memory scores for all 5 tests: AVLT (r=-0.922), VFT (r=-0.848), VRT(r=-0.707),WDST (r=-0.729) and VST (r=-0.880) Memory scores in all 5 tests were found to be negatively correlated with the FBS and PPBS levels in diabetic patients (p < 0.001). Conclusion: The decreased memory status in diabetic patients may be due to many factors like hyperglycemia, vascular disease, insulin resistance, amyloid deposition and also some of the factor combine to produce additive effects like, type of diabetes, co-morbidities, age of onset, duration of the disease and type of therapy. These observed effects of blood sugar levels of diabetics on memory status are of potential clinical importance because even mild cognitive impairment could interfere with todays’ activities.

Keywords: diabetes, cognition, diabetes, HRV, respiratory medicine

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Authors: A.H.Y. Lai, C. Teyra

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In Taiwan, there are 16 official indigenous groups, accounting for 2.3% of the total population. Like other indigenous populations worldwide, indigenous peoples in Taiwan have poorer mental health because of their history of oppression and colonisation. Amid the negative narratives, the ethnic identity of cultural minorities is their unique psychological and cultural asset. Moreover, positive socialisation is found to be related to strong ethnic identity. Based on Phinney’s theory on ethnic identity development and social support theory, this study adopted a strength-based approach conceptualising ethnic identity as the central organising principle that linked perceived social support and mental health among indigenous adults in Taiwan. Aims. Overall aim is to examine the effect of ethnic identity and social support on mental health. Specific aims were to examine : (1) the association between ethnic identity and mental health; (2) the association between perceived social support and mental health ; (3) the indirect effect of ethnic identity linking perceived social support and mental health. Methods. Participants were indigenous adults in Taiwan (n=200; mean age=29.51; Female=31%, Male=61%, Others=8%). A cross-sectional quantitative design was implemented using data collected in the year 2020. Respondent-driven sampling was used. Standardised measurements were: Ethnic Identity Scale(6-item); Social Support Questionnaire-SF(6 items); Patient Health Questionnaire(9-item); and Generalised Anxiety Disorder(7-item). Covariates were age, gender and economic satisfaction. A four-stage structural equation modelling (SEM) with robust maximin likelihood estimation was employed using Mplus8.0. Step 1: A measurement model was built and tested using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Step 2: Factor covariates were re-specified as direct effects in the SEM. Covariates were added. The direct effects of (1) ethnic identity and social support on depression and anxiety and (2) social support on ethnic identity were tested. The indirect effect of ethnic identity was examined with the bootstrapping technique. Results. The CFA model showed satisfactory fit statistics: x^2(df)=869.69(608), p<.05; Comparative ft index (CFI)/ Tucker-Lewis fit index (TLI)=0.95/0.94; root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA)=0.05; Standardized Root Mean Squared Residual (SRMR)=0.05. Ethnic identity is represented by two latent factors: ethnic identity-commitment and ethnic identity-exploration. Depression, anxiety and social support are single-factor latent variables. For the SEM, model fit statistics were: x^2(df)=779.26(527), p<.05; CFI/TLI=0.94/0.93; RMSEA=0.05; SRMR=0.05. Ethnic identity-commitment (b=-0.30) and social support (b=-0.33) had direct negative effects on depression, but ethnic identity-exploration did not. Ethnic identity-commitment (b=-0.43) and social support (b=-0.31) had direct negative effects on anxiety, while identity-exploration (b=0.24) demonstrated a positive effect. Social support had direct positive effects on ethnic identity-exploration (b=0.26) and ethnic identity-commitment (b=0.31). Mediation analysis demonstrated the indirect effect of ethnic identity-commitment linking social support and depression (b=0.22). Implications: Results underscore the role of social support in preventing depression via ethnic identity commitment among indigenous adults in Taiwan. Adopting the strength-based approach, mental health practitioners can mobilise indigenous peoples’ commitment to their group to promote their well-being.

Keywords: ethnic identity, indigenous population, mental health, perceived social support

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Authors: Pei-Fan Mu

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Background: Lung cancer is the most common cancer with the highest mortality rate. Patients with lung cancer under chemotherapy treatment experience life-threatening uncertainty. This study was based on the broaden-and-build theory using intentionality reflection of the body and internalization of positive prioritization strategies to enhance positive emotions of patients with lung cancer. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to use a quasi-experimental research design to examine the effectiveness of the enhancing positive emotion program. Method: Data were collected from a medical center in Taiwan. Fifty-four participants with lung cancer were recruited. Thirty participants were in the experiential group receiving the two weeks program. The content of the program includes awareness and understanding of the symptom experience, co-existing with illness and establishing self-identity, cognitive-emotion adjustment and establishing a new body schema, and symptom management to reach spiritual well-being. Twenty-four participants were in the control group receiving regular nursing care. Baseline, one month later and two months later, programmed measurements of symptoms of distress, positive emotion, and psychological well-being. Results: These two weeks of enhancing the positive emotion program resulted in a significantly improved positive emotion score for the experimental group compared to the control group. The findings of this study indicated that the positive emotion had significant differences between the two groups. There were no differences in symptom distress between the two groups. Discussion: The findings indicated that the enhancing positive emotion program could help patients enhance their life-threatening facing conditions.

Keywords: positive emotion, lung cancer, experimental design, symptom distress

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Authors: Theresa Steiner, Markus Pajones, Christian Haider

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Traffic is being induced by companies due to their economic behavior. Basically, two different types of traffic occur at company sites: freight traffic and commuting traffic. Due to the fact that these traffic types are connected to each other in different kinds, an integrated approach to manage them is useful. Mobility management is a proved method for companies, to handle the traffic processes caused by their business activities. According to recent trend analysis in Austria, the freight traffic as well as the individual traffic, as part of the commuting traffic, will continue to increase. More traffic jams, as well as negative environmental impacts, are expected impacts for the future. Mobility management is a tool to control the traffic behavior with the scope to reduce emissions and other negative effects which are caused by traffic. Until now, mobility management is mainly used for optimizing commuting traffic without taking the freight logistics processes into consideration. However, the method of mobility management can be used to improve the freight traffic area of a company as well. The focus of this paper will be particularly laid on analyzing to what extent companies are already using mobility management to influence not only the commuting traffic they produce but also their processes of freight logistics. A further objective is to acquire knowledge about the motivating factors which persuade companies to introduce and apply mobility management. Additionally, advantages and disadvantages of this tool will be defined as well as limitations and factors of success, with a special focus on freight logistics, will be depicted. The first step of this paper is to conduct a literature review on the issue of mobility management with a special focus on freight logistics processes. To compare the theoretical findings with the practice, interviews, following a structured interview guidline, with mobility managers of different companies in Upper Austria will be undertaken. A qualitative analysis of these surveys will in a first step show the motivation behind using mobility management to improve traffic processes and how far this approach is already being used to especially influence the freight traffic of the companies. An evaluation to what extent the method of mobility management is already being approached at Upper Austrian companies to regulate freight logistics processes will be one outcome of this publication. Furthermore, the results of the theoretical and practical analysis will reveal not only the possibilities but also the limitations of using mobility management to influence the processes of freight logistics.

Keywords: freight logistics processes, freight traffic, mobility management, passenger traffic

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Authors: Da Tao, Tieyan Wang, Mingfu Qin

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While social robots have been increasingly developed and rapidly applied in our daily life, how robots should interact with humans is still an urgent problem to be explored. Appropriate use of interactive behavior is likely to create a good user experience in human-robot interaction situations, which in turn can improve people’s acceptance of robots. This paper aimed to systematically and quantitatively examine the effects of several important situational factors (i.e., interaction distance, interaction posture, and feedback style) on user experience during human-robot interaction. A three-factor mixed designed experiment was adopted in this study, where subjects were asked to interact with a social robot in different interaction situations by combinations of varied interaction distance, interaction posture, and feedback style. A set of data on users’ behavioral performance, subjective perceptions, and eye movement measures were tracked and collected, and analyzed by repeated measures analysis of variance. The results showed that the three situational factors showed no effects on behavioral performance in tasks during human-robot interaction. Interaction distance and feedback style yielded significant main effects and interaction effects on the proportion of fixation times. The proportion of fixation times on the robot is higher for negative feedback compared with positive feedback style. While the proportion of fixation times on the robot generally decreased with the increase of the interaction distance, it decreased more under the positive feedback style than under the negative feedback style. In addition, there were significant interaction effects on pupil diameter between interaction distance and posture. As interaction distance increased, mean pupil diameter became smaller in side interaction, while it became larger in frontal interaction. Moreover, the three situation factors had significant interaction effects on user acceptance of the interaction mode. The findings are helpful in the underlying mechanism of user experience in human-robot interaction situations and provide important implications for the design of robot behavioral expression and for optimal strategies to improve user experience during human-robot interaction.

Keywords: social robots, human-robot interaction, interaction posture, interaction distance, feedback style, user experience

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Authors: Valentina Colonnello, Paolo Maria Russo

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Living kidney donation requires psychological evaluation and ongoing follow-up. A crucial aspect of this evaluation is assessing the social functioning of donors after donation. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we conducted a review of quantitative and qualitative studies on the psychological assessment of living kidney donors' social functioning. The majority of quantitative studies examining the long-term social health post-donation have primarily utilized the Short Form Health Survey (SF) and the World Health Organization Quality of Life-BREF (WHOQoL-BREF) questionnaires. These studies have indicated that donors' social functioning and relationships either remained stable post-donation or returned to pre-donation levels. In some instances, donors' social functioning even surpassed that of the general population. Qualitative studies, conducted through interviews and focus groups, have revealed donors' experiences and emotional concerns that are often overlooked in quantitative analyses. Specifically, qualitative analysis has identified two main themes: "connecting to others" and "acknowledgment and social support." Our review highlights that the majority of published quantitative studies on donors have employed measures of social functioning that may not fully capture donors' experiences and needs. It underscores the importance of further investigation in quantitative studies to assess donors' actual social health and psychological needs accurately. Overall, this review provides valuable insights into specific constructs that warrant deeper exploration in quantitative studies concerning the assessment of donors' social health and psychological well-being.

Keywords: reported outcomes, personalized medicine, individual differences, emotions, psychological assessment

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Authors: C. Miranda, R. Soares, S. Cunha, L. Ferreira, G. Igrejas, P. Poeta

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Different animal species, including ornamental animals, are reported as potential reservoirs of antibiotic resistance genes. Consequently, these resistances can be disseminated in the environment and transferred to humans. Moreover, multidrug-resistant bacteria reduce the efficacy of antibiotics, as the case of vancomycin-resistant enterococci. Enterococcus faecalis and E. faecium are described as the main nosocomial pathogens. In this line, the aim of this study was to characterize resistance and virulence genes of enterococci species isolated from samples of food supplied to ornamental animals during 2020. The 29 enterococci isolates (10 E. faecalis and 19 E. faecium) were tested for the presence of the resistance genes for the following antibiotics: erythromicyn (ermA, ermB and ermC), tetracycline (tetL, tetM, tetK and tetO), quinupristin/dalfopristin (vatD and vatE), gentamicin (aac(6’)-aph(2’’)-Ia), chloramphenicol (catA), streptomycin (ant(6)-Ia) and vancomycin (vanA and vanB). The same isolates were also tested for 10 virulence factors genes (esp, ace, gelE, agg, fsr, cpd, cylA, cylB, cylM and cylLL). The resistance and virulence genes were performed by PCR, using specific primers and conditions. Negative and positive controls were used in all PCR assays. The most prevalent resistance genes detected in both enterococci species were ermB (n=15, 52%), ermC (n=7, 24%), tetK (n=8, 28%) and vatE (n=4, 14%). Resistance genes for vancomycin were found in ten (34%) E. faecalis and ten (34%) E. faecium isolates. Only E. faecium isolates showed the presence of ermA (n=2, 7%), tetL (n=13, 45%) and ant(6)-Ia gene (n=4, 14%). A total of nine (31%) enterococci isolates were classified as multidrug-resistant bacteria (3 E. faecalis and 6 E. faecium). In three E. faecalis and one E. faecium were not detected resistance genes. The virulence genes detected in both species were agg (n=6, 21%) and cylLL (n=11, 38%). In general, each isolate showed only one of these virulence genes. Five E. faecalis and eleven E. faecium isolates were negative for all analyzed virulence genes. These preliminary results showed the presence of multidrug-resistant enterococci in food supplied to ornamental animals, in particular vancomycin-resistant enterococci. This genotypic characterization reinforces the relevance to public health in the control of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

Keywords: antibiotic resistance, enterococci, feed, ornamental animals

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Authors: Marc S. Paolella, Pawel Polak

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The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and non-ellipticity. It introduces a so-called risk fear portfolio strategy which combines portfolio optimization with active risk monitoring. The former selects optimal portfolio weights. The latter, independently, initiates market exit in case of excessive risks. The strategy agrees with the stylized fact of stock market major sell-offs during the initial stage of market downturns. The advantages of the new framework are illustrated with an extensive empirical study. It leads to superior multivariate density and Value-at-Risk forecasting, and better portfolio performance. The proposed risk fear portfolio strategy outperforms various competing types of optimal portfolios, even in the presence of conservative transaction costs and frequent rebalancing. The risk monitoring of the optimal portfolio can serve as an early warning system against large market risks. In particular, the new strategy avoids all the losses during the 2008 financial crisis, and it profits from the subsequent market recovery.

Keywords: comfort, financial crises, portfolio optimization, risk monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 509