Search results for: environmental model

Authors: Xi Quan Cheng, Yan Chao Xu, Xu Jiang, Lu Shao, Cher Hon Lau

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A hydrophilic thin-film-composite (TFC) nanofiltration (NF) membrane has been developed through the interfacial polymerization (IP) of amino-functional polyethylene glycol (PEG) and trimesoyl chloride. The selective layer is formed on a polyethersulfone (PES) support that is characterized using FTIR, XPS and SEM, and is dependent on monomer immersion duration, and the concentration of monomers and additives. The higher hydrophilicity alongside the larger pore size of the PEG-based selective layer is the key to a high water flux of 66.0 L m-2 h-1 at 5.0 bar. With mean pore radius of 0.42 nm and narrow pore size distribution, the MgSO4 rejections of the PEG based PA TFC NF membranes can reach up to 80.2 %. The hydrophilic PEG based membranes shows positive charged since the isoelectric points range from pH=8.9 to pH=9.1 and the rejection rates for different salts of the novel membranes are in the order of R(MgCl2)>R(MgSO4)>R(NaCl)>R(Na2SO4). The pore sizes and water permeability of these membranes are tailored by varying the molecular weight and molecular architecture of amino-functional PEG. Due to the unique structure of the selective layer of the PEG based membranes consisting of saturated aliphatic construction unit (CH2-CH2-O), the membranes demonstrate dual resistance to fouling and chlorine. The membranes maintain good salt rejections and high water flux of PEG based membranes after treatment by 2000 ppm NaClO for 24 hours. Interestingly, the PEG based membranes exhibit excellent fouling resistance with a water flux recovery of 90.2 % using BSA as a model molecule. More importantly, the hydrophilic PEG based NF membranes have been exploited to separate several water soluble antibiotics (such as tobramycin, an aminoglycoside antibiotic applied in the treatment of various types of bacterial infections), showing excellent performance in concentration or removal of antibioics.

Keywords: nanofiltration, antibiotic separation, hydrophilic membrane, high flux

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Authors: Wenjun Zhang, Thao Thi Le, Dongyup Shin, Jong Min Kim

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Electrochemical hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) synthesis holds significant promise for decentralized environmental remediation through the electro-Fenton process. However, challenges persist, such as the absence of robust electrocatalysts for the selective two-electron oxygen reduction reaction (2e⁻ ORR) and the high cost and sluggish kinetics of conventional electro-Fenton systems in treating highly concentrated wastewater. This study introduces an efficient water treatment system for removing substantial quantities of organic pollutants using an advanced electro-Fenton system coupled with a high-valent NiO catalyst. By employing a precipitation method involving crystal facet and cation vacancy engineering, a trivalent Ni (Ni³⁺)-rich NiO catalyst with a (111)-domain-exposed crystal facet, named {111}-NivO, was synthesized. This catalyst exhibited a remarkable 96% selectivity and a high mass activity of 59 A g⁻¹ for H₂O₂ production, outperforming all previously reported Ni-based catalysts. Furthermore, an advanced electro-Fenton system, integrated with a flow cell for electrochemical H₂O₂ production, was utilized to achieve 100% removal of 50 ppm bisphenol A (BPA) in 200 mL of wastewater under heavy-duty conditions, reaching a superior rapid degradation rate (4 min, k = 1.125 min⁻¹), approximately 102 times faster than the conventional electro-Fenton system. The hyper-efficiency is attributed to the continuous and appropriate supply of H₂O₂, the provision of O₂, and the timely recycling of the electrolyte under high current density operation. This catalyst also demonstrated a 93% removal of total organic carbon after 2 hours of operation and can be applied for efficient removal of highly concentrated phenol pollutants from aqueous systems, which opens new avenues for wastewater treatment.

Keywords: hydrogen peroxide production, nickel oxides, crystal facet and cation vacancy engineering, wastewater treatment, flow cell, electro-Fenton

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Authors: Xiuxia Sun, Yan Jin, Zilong Liu, Shiming Wei

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As a critical mineral component of shale, illite is essential in oil exploration and development due to its surface hydration characteristics and action mechanism. This paper, starting from the perspective of the molecular structure of organic matter, uses molecular dynamics simulation technology to deeply explore the interaction mechanism between organic molecules and the illite surface. In the study, we thoroughly considered the forces such as van der Waals force, electrostatic force, and steric hindrance and constructed an illite crystal model covering C8-C18 modifiers. Subsequently, we systematically analyzed surfactants' adsorption behavior and hydration characteristics with different alkyl chain numbers, lengths, and concentrations on the illite surface. The simulation results show that surfactant molecules with shorter alkyl chains present a lateral monolayer or inclined double-layer arrangement on the illite surface, and these two arrangements may coexist under different concentration conditions. In addition, with the increase in the number of alkyl chains, the interlayer spacing of illite increases significantly. In contrast, the change in alkyl chain length has a limited effect on surface properties. It is worth noting that the change in functional group structure has a particularly significant effect on the wettability of the illite surface, and its influence even exceeds the change in the alkyl chain structure. This discovery gives us a new perspective on understanding and regulating the wetting properties. The results obtained are consistent with the XRD analysis and wettability experimental data in this paper, further confirming the reliability of the research conclusions. This study deepened our understanding of illite's hydration characteristics and mechanism. We provided new ideas and directions for the molecular design and application development of oilfield chemicals.

Keywords: illite, surfactant, hydration, wettability, adsorption

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Authors: N. G. I. Aroshana, S. Edirisooriya

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Construction of highway is the most emerging development tendency in Sri Lanka. With these development activities, there are a lot of environmental and social issues started. Landscape fragmentation is one of the main issues that highly effect to the environment by the construction of expressways. Sri Lankan expressway system getting effort to treat fragmented landscape by using highway crossing structures. This paper designates, a highway post construction landscape study on the effectiveness of the landscape connectivity structures to restore connectivity. Geographic Information Systems (GIS), least cost path tool has been used in the selected two plots; 25km alone the expressway to identify animal crossing paths. Animal accident data use as measure for determining the most contributed plot for landscape connectivity. Number of patches, Mean patch size, Class area use as a parameter to determine the most effective land use class to reestablish the landscape connectivity. The findings of the research express scrub, grass and marsh were the most positively affected land use typologies for increase the landscape connectivity. It represents the growth increased by 8% within the 12 years of time. From the least cost analysis within the plot one, 28.5% of total animal crossing structures are within the high resistance land use classes. Southern expressway used reinforced compressed earth technologies for construction. It has been controlled the growth of the climax community. According to all findings, it could assume that involvement of the landscape crossing structures contributes to re-establish connectivity, but it is not enough to restore the majority of disturbance performed by the expressway. Connectivity measures used within the study can use as a tool for re-evaluate future involvement of highway crossing structures. Proper placement of the highway crossing structures leads to increase the rate of connectivity. The study recommends that monitoring the all stages (preconstruction, construction and post construction) of the project and preliminary design, and the involvement of the research applied connectivity assessment strategies helps to overcome the complication regarding the re-establishment of landscape connectivity using the highway crossing structures that facilitate the growth of flora and fauna.

Keywords: landscape fragmentation, least cost path, land use analysis, landscape connectivity structures

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Neelam Patel

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Farmers in peri-urban areas of developing countries depend on wastewater for Irrigation but with great environmental and health hazards. Since, irrigation with wastewater is growing in the developing countries but its suitability to environment and other health factors should be checked. Metal pollution is a very serious issue these days, various neuro, physical and mental disorders are prevailing due to the metal pollution. Waste water contaminated with heavy metals got accumulated in the soil and then bioaccumulated in the vegetables irrigated with waste water. A 3-year field experiment on cauliflower has been done by using wastewater with two different methods of irrigation i.e. Drip and Flood irrigation and checked the impact on the cauliflower and soil quality. Heavy metals (Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn and Pb) have been studied in wastewater used for the irrigation and their accumulation in the soil and vegetable was studied. The study reveals that the concentration of heavy metals increases by 100 times from initial in soil. After 3 years, the concentration of Copper(41 ppm) Chromium(39.4 ppm) Lead(62.2ppm) Zinc(100.5 ppm) and Nickel(75.7 ppm) in Flood irrigated soil while in Drip irrigated soil , Copper (36.4 ppm) Chromium(36.8 ppm) Lead(53.7 ppm) Zinc(70.3 ppm) and Nickel (53.9 ppm). In vegetable, the wastewater irrigated shows an increase in the concentration of metals with the time and the accumulation of Nickel (6.98ppm), Lead (30.18 ppm) and Zinc (55.83 ppm) in drip irrigated while in flood irrigated, Nickel (30.58 ppm), Lead (73.95ppm) Zinc (93.50 ppm) and Copper (54.58 ppm) in edible part of cauliflower which is above the permissible limits suggested by different international agencies. On other hand, the nutrients content i.e. Nitrogen, Phosphorus and Potassium in soil was increased in concentration with time. The study pointed out that the metal contaminated waste water consisting the nutrients in it but also heavy metals which causes health issues in human. While the increase in concentration of nutrients in the soil indirectly helpful to the farmers economically by restricting the use of fertilizers. But the metal pollution directly affects the health of human being. The different method of irrigation suggested that the drip irrigated vegetable acquired less metal then the flood one and is a better combo with the waste water for the irrigation.

Keywords: drip irrigation, heavy metals, metal contamination, waste water

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Authors: Pragathi Gurumurthy, Christina Hagen, Patricia Ulloa, Martin A. Koch, Thorsten M. Buzug

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Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a sleep disorder where the patient suffers a disturbed airflow during sleep due to partial or complete occlusion of the pharyngeal airway. Recently, numerical simulations have been used to better understand the mechanism of pharyngeal collapse. However, to gain confidence in the solutions so obtained, an experimental validation is required. Therefore, in this study an experimental validation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) used for the study of human pharyngeal flow patterns during OSA is performed. A stationary incompressible Navier-Stokes equation solved using the finite element method was used to numerically study the flow patterns in a computed tomography-based human pharynx model. The inlet flow rate was set to 250 ml/s and such that a flat profile was maintained at the inlet. The outlet pressure was set to 0 Pa. The experimental technique used for the validation of CFD of fluid flow patterns is phase contrast-MRI (PC-MRI). Using the same computed tomography data of the human pharynx as in the simulations, a phantom for the experiment was 3 D printed. Glycerol (55.27% weight) in water was used as a test fluid at 25°C. Inflow conditions similar to the CFD study were simulated using an MRI compatible flow pump (CardioFlow-5000MR, Shelley Medical Imaging Technologies). The entire experiment was done on a 3 T MR system (Ingenia, Philips) with 108 channel body coil using an RF-spoiled, gradient echo sequence. A comparison of the axial velocity obtained in the pharynx from the numerical simulations and PC-MRI shows good agreement. The region of jet impingement and recirculation also coincide, therefore validating the numerical simulations. Hence, the experimental validation proves the reliability and correctness of the numerical simulations.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, experimental validation, phase contrast-MRI, obstructive sleep apnea

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Authors: Taha Anjamrooz, Sareh Rajabi, Hasan Mahmmud, Ghassan Abulebdeh

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Water availability, as well as water demand, are not uniformly distributed in time and space. Numerous extra-large water diversion projects are launched in Amazon to alleviate water scarcities. This research utilizes statistical analysis to examine the temporal and spatial features of 40 extra-large water diversion projects in Amazon. Using a network analysis method, the correlation between seven major basins is measured, while the impact analysis method is employed to explore the associated economic, environmental, and social impacts. The study unearths that the development of water diversion in Amazon has witnessed four stages, from a preliminary or initial period to a phase of rapid development. It is observed that the length of water diversion channels and the quantity of water transferred have amplified significantly in the past five decades. As of 2015, in Amazon, more than 75 billion m³ of water was transferred amidst 12,000 km long channels. These projects extend over half of the Amazon Area. The River Basin E is currently the most significant source of transferred water. Through inter-basin water diversions, Amazon gains the opportunity to enhance the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 5%. Nevertheless, the construction costs exceed 70 billion US dollars, which is higher than any other country. The average cost of transferred water per unit has amplified with time and scale but reduced from western to eastern Amazon. Additionally, annual total energy consumption for pumping exceeded 40 billion kilowatt-hours, while the associated greenhouse gas emissions are assessed to be 35 million tons. Noteworthy to comprehend that ecological problems initiated by water diversion influence the River Basin B and River Basin D. Due to water diversion, more than 350 thousand individuals have been relocated, away from their homes. In order to enhance water diversion sustainability, four categories of innovative measures are provided for decision-makers: development of water tradeoff projects strategies, improvement of integrated water resource management, the formation of water-saving inducements, and pricing approach, and application of ex-post assessment.

Keywords: sustainability, water trade-off projects, environment, Amazon

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Authors: Konrad Pietrykowski, Michal Bialy, Pawel Karpinski, Radoslaw Maczka

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The nozzle is an element of the rocket engine in which the conversion of the potential energy of gases generated during combustion into the kinetic energy of the gas stream takes place. The design parameters of the nozzle have a decisive influence on the ballistic characteristics of the engine. Designing a nozzle assembly is, therefore, one of the most responsible stages in developing a rocket engine design. The paper presents the results of the simulation of three types of rocket propulsion nozzles. Calculations were made using CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) in ANSYS Fluent software. The next types of nozzles differ in shape. The analysis was made of a conical nozzle, a bell type nozzle with a conical supersonic part and a bell type nozzle. Calculation results are presented in the form of pressure, velocity and kinetic energy distributions of turbulence in the longitudinal section. The courses of these values along the nozzles are also presented. The results show that the cone nozzle generates strong turbulence in the critical section. Which negatively affect the flow of the working medium. In the case of a bell nozzle, the transformation of the wall caused the elimination of flow disturbances in the critical section. This reduces the probability of waves forming before or after the trailing edge. The most sophisticated construction is the bell type nozzle. It allows you to maximize performance without adding extra weight. The bell type nozzle can be used as a starter and auxiliary engine nozzle due to its advantages. The project/research was financed in the framework of the project Lublin University of Technology-Regional Excellence Initiative, funded by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education (contract no. 030/RID/2018/19).

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, nozzle, rocket engine, supersonic flow

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Authors: Recep Yücel, Cihat Kartal, Mustafa Kara

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On the basis of strategic management, it is believed in the necessity of a number of innovations in the postmodern management approach in the management of universities in our country. In this sense, some of these requirements are the integration of public and private universities, international integration, R & D status and increasing young population will create a dynamic structure. According to the postmodern management approach, universities, in our country despite being governed by the classical approach autonomous universities; academically are thought solid, to be non-hierarchical and creative. In fact, studies that require a multidisciplinary academic environment, universities and there is a close cooperation between formal and non-formal sub-units. Moreover, terms of postmodern management approaches, the requirements specified in the direction of solving the problem of an increasing number of universities in our country is considered to be more difficult. Therefore, considering the psychological impact on the academic personnel the university organizational structure, the study are trying to aim to propose an appropriate model of university organization. In this context, the study sought to answer the question how to have an impact innovation and international integration on the academic achievement of the classical organizational structure. Finally, in the study, due to the adoption of the classical organizational structure of the university, integration is considered to be difficult, academic cooperation between universities at the international level and maintaining it. In addition, it was understood that block the efforts of this organization structure, academic motivation, development and innovation. In this study under these purposes; on the basis of the existing organization and management structure of the universities in the Marmara Region in Turkey, a study was conducted with qualitative research methods. The data have been analyzed using content analysis and assessment was based on the results obtained.

Keywords: university, strategic management, postmodern management approaches, multidisciplinary studies

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Authors: Glenda Wrenn, Juliet Muzere, Meldra Hall, Allyson Belton, Kisha Holden, Chanita Hughes-Halbert, Martha Kent, Bekh Bradley

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Understanding the help seeking decision making process and experiences of health disparity populations with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is central to development of trauma-informed, culturally centered, and patient focused services. Yet, little is known about the decision making process among adult Black women who are non-treatment seekers as they are, by definition, not engaged in services. Methods: Audiotaped interviews were conducted with 30 African American adult women with clinically significant PTSD symptoms who were engaged in primary care, but not in treatment for PTSD despite symptom burden. A qualitative interview guide was used to elucidate key themes. Independent coding of themes mapped to theory and identification of emergent themes were conducted using qualitative methods. An existing quantitative dataset was analyzed to contextualize responses and provide a descriptive summary of the sample. Results: Emergent themes revealed that active mental avoidance, the intermittent nature of distress, ambivalence, and self-identified resilience as undermining to help seeking decisions. Participants were stuck within the help-seeking phase of ‘recognition’ of illness and retained a sense of “it is my decision” despite endorsing significant social and environmental negative influencers. Participants distinguished ‘help acceptance’ from ‘help seeking’ with greater willingness to accept help and importance placed on being of help to others. Conclusions: Elucidation of the decision-making process from the perspective of non-treatment seekers has implications for outreach and treatment within models of integrated and specialty systems care. The salience of responses to trauma symptoms and stagnation in the help seeking recognition phase are findings relevant to integrated care service design and community engagement.

Keywords: culture, help-seeking, integrated care, PTSD

Procedia PDF Downloads 227

Authors: Erich Ryan, Benjamin McDaniel, Dragoljub Kosanovic

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Combined heat and power (CHP) plants are an efficient technology for meeting the heating and electric needs of large campus energy systems, but have come under greater scrutiny as the world pushes for emissions reductions and lower consumption of fossil fuels. The electrification of heating and cooling systems offers a great deal of potential for carbon savings, but these systems can be costly endeavors due to increased electric consumption and peak demand. Thermal energy storage (TES) has been shown to be an effective means of improving the viability of electrified systems, by shifting heating and cooling load to off-peak hours and reducing peak demand charges. In this study, we analyze the integration of an electrified heating and cooling system with thermal energy storage into a campus CHP plant, to investigate the potential of leveraging existing infrastructure and technologies with the climate goals of the 21st century. A TRNSYS model was built to simulate a ground source heat pump (GSHP) system with TES using measured campus heating and cooling loads. The GSHP with TES system is modeled to follow the parameters of industry standards and sized to provide an optimal balance of capital and operating costs. Using known CHP production information, costs and emissions were investigated for a unique large energy user rate structure that operates a CHP plant. The results highlight the cost and emissions benefits of a targeted integration of heat pump technology within the framework of existing CHP systems, along with the performance impacts and value of TES capability within the combined system.

Keywords: thermal energy storage, combined heat and power, heat pumps, electrification

Procedia PDF Downloads 84

Authors: Luís F. da Silva, Ariadne C. Catto, Osmando F. Lopes, Khalifa Aguir, Valmor R. Mastelaro, Caue Ribeiro, Elson Longo

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Gas detection is important for controlling industrial, and vehicle emissions, agricultural residues, and environmental control. In last decades, several semiconducting oxides have been used to detect dangerous or toxic gases. The excellent gas-sensing performance of these devices have been observed at high temperatures (~250 °C), which forbids the use for the detection of flammable and explosive gases. In this way, ultraviolet light activated gas sensors have been a simple and promising alternative to achieve room temperature sensitivity. Among the semiconductor oxides which exhibit a good performance as gas sensor, the zinc oxide (ZnO) and tin oxide (SnO2) have been highlighted. Nevertheless, their poor selectivity is the main disadvantage for application as gas sensor devices. Recently, heterostructures combining these two semiconductors (ZnO-SnO2) have been studied as an alternative way to enhance the gas sensor performance (sensitivity, selectivity, and stability). In this work, we investigated the influence of mass ratio Zn:Sn on the properties of ZnO-SnO2 nanocomposites prepared by hydrothermal treatment for 4 hours at 200 °C. The crystalline phase, surface, and morphological features were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), high-resolution transmission electron (HR-TEM), and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) measurements. The gas sensor measurements were carried out at room-temperature under ultraviolet (UV) light irradiation using different ozone levels (0.06 to 0.61 ppm). The XRD measurements indicate the presence of ZnO and SnO2 crystalline phases, without the evidence of solid solution formation. HR-TEM analysis revealed that a good contact between the SnO2 nanoparticles and the ZnO nanorods, which are very important since interface characteristics between nanostructures are considered as challenge to development new and efficient heterostructures. Electrical measurements proved that the best ozone gas-sensing performance is obtained for ZnO:SnO2 (50:50) nanocomposite under UV light irradiation. Its sensitivity was around 6 times higher when compared to SnO2 pure, a traditional ozone gas sensor. These results demonstrate the potential of ZnO-SnO2 heterojunctions for the detection of ozone gas at room-temperature when irradiated with UV light irradiation.

Keywords: hydrothermal, zno-sno2, ozone sensor, uv-activation, room-temperature

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Authors: Fatemeh Dehghan Khangahi, Hakan Gunes

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Transforming a public necessity into a commercial commodity becomes more and more evident as time goes on, and it is one of the issues of water shortage. Development projects of countries, consume the water and waterbeds in various forms, ignoring the concepts such as sustainability and the negative effects they place on the environment, pollute and change the ways of waterways. Throughout these processes, the water basins and all the vital environments sometimes can suffer damage to the irreparable level. In this context, the issue of Lake Urmia that is located in the North West of Iran left alone by drought, has been researched. The lake, which is on the list of UNESCO's biosphere reserves, is now exposed to the danger of desiccation. If the desiccation is fully realized, more than 5.000.000 people that they are living around the lake, will have to migrate as a result of negative living conditions. As a matter of fact, along with the recent years of increasing drought level, regional migrations have begun. In addition to migration issues, it is also necessary to specify the negative effects on human and all-round’s life that depend on the formation of salt storms, mixing of salt into the air and soil, which threaten human health seriously because the lake is salty. The main aim of this work is to raise national and international awareness of this problem, which is an environment and a human tragedy at the same time. This research has two basic questions: 1) In the case of Lake Urmia, what are environmental problems and how they have emerged and what is the role of governments? 2) What is the social consequence of this problem in relation to the first question? In response, after the literature search, having a comparative view of the situation of the Aral Sea and the Great Salt Lake (Utah, USA), which involved the two major international examples. The first, one is related to the terms of population and migration, the second is about biological properties. Then, data and status information that provided after 3 years area research has been evaluated. Towards the end, with the support of qualitative and quantitative methods, the study of social mobilization in the region has been carried out. An example of it is using the public space of TRAXTOR matches like a protests area.

Keywords: environment problems, water, social mobilization, Lake Urmia, migration

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Authors: Fatemeh Jalalvand

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The critical human rights problems such as extreme poverty, hunger, inequalities and gender discrimination need to be addressed by powerful and influential actors in the world. In today’s globalization, corporations have become one of the potent agents in the society. They are capable of generating economic growth, reducing poverty, and increasing the well-being of individuals, thereby contributing to the betterment of a broad spectrum of human rights. However, the discussion on how business can contribute to human rights has primarily focused on not violating them (reactive approach) rather than improving the conditions and solving the problems of human rights (proactive approach). In particular, the role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in bringing proactivity of business in human rights has gained less attention. This paper develops a conceptual framework to examine the role of different categories of CSR, including discretionary, ethical, legal, instrumental and political CSR in encouraging the proactive contribution of corporations to the betterment of human rights. The five propositions, related to the conceptual framework, outline the relationships between five categories of CSR and proactivity of corporations in human rights. The findings indicate that discretionary CSR with voluntary nature might not be able to motivate any contribution of business in human rights. Moreover, ethical CSR and legal CSR might lead to reactive strategies of business toward human rights. Meanwhile, the economic incentives behind the notion of instrumental CSR could result in partial proactive engagement of corporations in human rights. Finally, the internal motives as profit and power besides the external duties might lead to the highest level of proactivity of corporations in human rights under the context of political CSR. The model developed offers a map for business to adopt proactive human rights strategies more systematically maintaining key profit-drivers like power and profit. In sum, instrumental and political categories of CSR might lead corporations to improve the conditions of human rights proactively.

Keywords: CSR, human rights, proactive approach, reactive approach

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Authors: Sevilay Çankaya

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The detection of deception in children’s interviews is essential for statement veracity. The widely used method for deception detection is building cognitive load, which is the logic of the cognitive interview (CI), and its effectiveness for adults is approved. This meta-analysis delves into the effectiveness of inducing cognitive load as a means of enhancing veracity detection during interviews with children. Additionally, the effectiveness of cognitive load on children's total number of events recalled is assessed as a second part of the analysis. The current meta-analysis includes ten effect sizes from search using databases. For the effect size calculation, Hedge’s g was used with a random effect model by using CMA version 2. Heterogeneity analysis was conducted to detect potential moderators. The overall result indicated that cognitive load had no significant effect on veracity outcomes (g =0.052, 95% CI [-.006,1.25]). However, a high level of heterogeneity was found (I² = 92%). Age, participants’ characteristics, interview setting, and characteristics of the interviewer were coded as possible moderators to explain variance. Age was significant moderator (β = .021; p = .03, R2 = 75%) but the analysis did not reveal statistically significant effects for other potential moderators: participants’ characteristics (Q = 0.106, df = 1, p = .744), interview setting (Q = 2.04, df = 1, p = .154), and characteristics of interviewer (Q = 2.96, df = 1, p = .086). For the second outcome, the total number of events recalled, the overall effect was significant (g =4.121, 95% CI [2.256,5.985]). The cognitive load was effective in total recalled events when interviewing with children. All in all, while age plays a crucial role in determining the impact of cognitive load on veracity, the surrounding context, interviewer attributes, and inherent participant traits may not significantly alter the relationship. These findings throw light on the need for more focused, age-specific methods when using cognitive load measures. It may be possible to improve the precision and dependability of deceit detection in children's interviews with the help of more studies in this field.

Keywords: deceit detection, cognitive load, memory recall, children interviews, meta-analysis

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Authors: Stephen M. Magu

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The 9/11 and Christmas bombing attacks in the United States are mostly associated with the inability of intelligence agencies to connect dots based on intelligence that was already available. The 1998, 2002, 2013 and several 2014 terrorist attacks in Kenya, on the other hand, are probably driven by a completely different dynamic: the invisible hand of corruption. The World Bank and Transparency International annually compute the Worldwide Governance Indicators and the Corruption Perception Index respectively. What perhaps is not adequately captured in the corruption metrics is the impact of corruption on terrorism. The World Bank data includes variables such as the control of corruption, (estimates of) government effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, regulatory quality, rule of law and voice and accountability. TI's CPI does not include measures related to terrorism, but it is plausible that there is an expectation of some terrorism impact arising from corruption. This paper, by examining the incidence, frequency and total number of terrorist attacks that have occurred especially since 1990, and further examining the specific cases of Kenya and Nigeria, argues that in addition to having major effects on governance, corruption has an even more frightening impact: that of facilitating and/or violating security mechanisms to the extent that foreign nationals can easily obtain identification that enables them to perpetuate major events, targeting powerful countries' interests in countries with weak corruption-fighting mechanisms. The paper aims to model interactions that demonstrate the cost/benefit analysis and agents' rational calculations as being non-rational calculations, given the ultimate impact. It argues that eradication of corruption is not just a matter of a better business environment, but that it is implicit in national security, and that for anti-corruption crusaders, this is an argument more potent than the economic cost / cost of doing business argument.

Keywords: corruption, global south, identification, passports, terrorism

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Authors: Nandita Ghosh, Shinjini Mitra, Ena Ray Banerjee

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Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic disease of the skin, involving itchy, reddish, and scaly lesions. It mainly affects children and has a high prevalence in developing countries. The AD may occur due to environmental or genetic factors. There is no permanent cure for the AD. Currently, all therapeutic strategies involve methods to simply alleviate the symptoms, and include lotions and corticosteroids, which have adverse effects. Use of phytochemicals and natural products has not yet been exploited fully. The particle used in this study is derived from Cyamopsis tetragonoloba, an edible polysaccharide with a galactomannan component. The mannose component mainly increases its specificity towards cellular uptake by mannose receptors, highly expressed by the macrophage. The aim of this study was to determine the therapeutic effect of guar gum nanoparticles (GN) in vitro and in vivo in the AD. To assess the wound healing capacity of the guar gum nanoparticle (GN), we first treated adherent NIH3T3 cells, with a scratch injury, with GN. GN successfully healed the wound caused by the scratch. In the in vivo experiment, Balb/c mice ear were topically treated with oxazolone (oxa) to induce AD and then were topically treated with GN. The ear thickness was increased significantly till day 28 on the treatment of Oxa. The GN application showed a significant decrease in the thickness as assessed on day 28. The total cell count of skin cells showed fold increase when treated with oxa, was again decreased on topical application of GN on the affected skin. The eosinophil count, as assessed by Giemsa staining was also increased when treated with oxa, GN application led to a significant decrease. The IgE level was assessed in the serum samples which showed that GN helped in restoring the alleviated IgE level. The T helper cells and the macrophage population showed increased percentage when treated with oxa, the GN application. This was examined by flow cytometry. The H&E staining of the ear tissue showed epidermal thickness in the oxa treated mice, GN application showed reduced cellular filtration followed by epidermal thickness. Thus our assays showed that GN was successful in alleviating the disease caused by Oxa when administered topically.

Keywords: allergen, inflammation, nanodrug, wound

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Authors: Md. Rezaul Karim, Md. Ashikur Rahman, Dewan Mahmud Mim

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Scarcity of potable water as the result of rapid climate change and saltwater intrusion in groundwater has been a major problem in the coastal regions over the world. In equinoctial countries like Bangladesh, where sunlight is available for more than 10 hours a day, Solar Distillation provides a promising sustainable way for safe drinking water supply in coastal poor households with negligible major cost and difficulty of construction and maintenance. In this paper, two passive type solar stills- a Conventional Single Slope Solar still (CSS) and a Pyramid Solar Sill (PSS) is used and relationship is established between distill water output corresponding to four different factors- temperature, solar intensity, relative humidity and wind speed for Gazipur, Bangladesh. Comparison is analyzed between the two different still outputs for nine months period (January- September) and efficiency is calculated. Later a thermal mathematical model is developed and the distilled water output for Khulna, Bangladesh is computed. Again, difference between the output of the two cities- Gazipur and Khulna is demonstrated and finally an economic analysis is prepared. The distillation output has a positive correlation with temperature and solar intensity, inverse relation with relative humidity and wind speed has nugatory consequence. The maximum output of Conventional Solar Still is obtained 3.8 L/m2/day and Pyramid still is 4.3 L/m2/day for Gazipur and almost 15% more efficiency is found for Pyramid still. Productivity in Khulna is found almost 20% more than Gazipur. Based on economic analysis, taking 10 BDT, per liter, the net profit, benefit cost ratio, payback period all indicates that both stills are feasible but pyramid still is more feasible than Conventional Still. Finally, for a 3-4 member family, area of 4 m2 is suggested for Conventional Still and 3m2 for Pyramid Solar Still.

Keywords: solar distillation, household water supply, saline zones, Bangladesh

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Authors: Patricia M. B. Saint-Vincent, Anna Furches, Stephanie Galanie, Erica Teixeira Prates, Piet Jones, Nancy Engle, David Kainer, Wellington Muchero, Daniel Jacobson, Timothy J. Tschaplinski

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Uridine diphosphate-glycosyltransferases (UGTs) are enzymes that catalyze sugar transfer to a variety of plant metabolites. UGT substrates, which include plant secondary metabolites involved in lignification, demonstrate new activities and incorporation when glycosylated. Knowledge of UGT function, substrate specificity, and enzyme products is important for plant engineering efforts, especially related to increasing plant biomass through lignification. UGTs in Populus trichocarpa, a biofuel feedstock, and model woody plant, were selected from a pool of gene candidates using rapid prioritization strategies. A functional genomics workflow, consisting of a metabolite genome-wide association study (mGWAS), expression of synthetic codon-optimized genes, and high-throughput biochemical assays with mass spectrometry-based analysis, was developed for determining the substrates and products of previously-uncharacterized enzymes. A total of 40 UGTs from P. trichocarpa were profiled, and the biochemical assay results were compared to predicted mGWAS connections. Assay results confirmed seven of 11 leaf mGWAS associations and demonstrated varying levels of substrate specificity among candidate UGTs. P. trichocarpa UGT substrate processing confirms the role of these newly-characterized enzymes in lignan, flavonoid, and phytohormone metabolism, with potential implications for cell wall biosynthesis, nitrogen uptake, and biotic and abiotic stress responses.

Keywords: Populus, metabolite-gene associations, GWAS, bio feedstocks, glycosyltransferase

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Authors: Ryan S. Johnson, Raeesa Moolla

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Airports are known air pollution hotspots due to the variety of fuel driven activities that take place within the confines of them. As such, people working within airports are particularly vulnerable to exposure of hazardous air pollutants, including hundreds of aromatic hydrocarbons, and more specifically a group of compounds known as BTEX (viz. benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylenes). These compounds have been identified as being harmful to human and environmental health. Through the use of passive and active sampling methods, the spatial and temporal variability of benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylene concentrations within the international airport was investigated. Two sampling campaigns were conducted. In order to quantify the temporal variability of concentrations within the airport, an active sampling strategy using the Synspec Spectras Gas Chromatography 955 instrument was used. Furthermore, a passive sampling campaign, using Radiello Passive Samplers was used to quantify the spatial variability of these compounds. In addition, meteorological factors are known to affect the dispersal and dilution of pollution. Thus a Davis Pro-Weather 2 station was utilised in order to measure in situ weather parameters (viz. wind speed, wind direction and temperature). Results indicated that toluene varied on a daily, temporal scale considerably more than other concentrations. Toluene further exhibited a strong correlation with regards to the meteorological parameters, inferring that toluene was affected by these parameters to a greater degree than the other pollutants. The passive sampling campaign revealed BTEXtotal concentrations ranged between 12.95 – 124.04 µg m-3. From the results obtained it is clear that benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylene concentrations are heterogeneously spatially dispersed within the airport. Due to the slow wind speeds recorded over the passive sampling campaign (1.13 m s-1.), the hotspots were located close to the main concentration sources. The most significant hotspot was located over the main apron of the airport. It is recommended that further, extensive investigations into the seasonality of hazardous air pollutants at the airport is necessary in order for sound conclusions to be made about the temporal and spatial distribution of benzene, toluene, ethyl-benzene and xylene concentrations within the airport.

Keywords: airport, air pollution hotspot, BTEX concentrations, meteorology

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Authors: Chi Nguyen Thi Quynh, Steven Schilizzi, Atakelty Hailu, Sayed Iftekhar

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Territorial Use Rights for Fisheries (TURFs) have been emerged as a promising tool for fisheries conservation and management. However, illegal fishing has undermined the effectiveness of TURFs, profoundly degrading global fish stocks and marine ecosystems. Conservation and management of fisheries, therefore, largely depends on effectiveness of enforcing fishing regulations, which needs co-enforcement by fishers. However, fishers tend to resist monitoring participation, as their views towards monitoring scheme design has not been received adequate attention. Fishers’ acceptability of a monitoring scheme is likely to be achieved if there is a mechanism allowing fishers to engage in the early planning and design stages. This study carried out a choice experiment with 396 fishers in Vietnam to elicit fishers’ preferences for monitoring scheme and to estimate the relative importance that fishers place on the key design elements. Preference heterogeneity was investigated using a Scale-Adjusted Latent Class Model that accounts for both preference and scale variance. Welfare changes associated with the proposed monitoring schemes were also examined. It is found that there are five distinct preference classes, suggesting that there is no one-size-fits-all scheme well-suited to all fishers. Although fishers prefer to be compensated more for their participation, compensation is not a driving element affecting fishers’ choice. Most fishers place higher value on other elements, such as institutional arrangements and monitoring capacity. Fishers’ preferences are driven by their socio-demographic and psychological characteristics. Understanding of how changes in design elements’ levels affect the participation of fishers could provide policy makers with insights useful for monitoring scheme designs tailored to the needs of different fisher classes.

Keywords: Design of monitoring scheme, Enforcement, Heterogeneity, Illegal Fishing, Territorial Use Rights for Fisheries

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Authors: Tuğçe Kiper Elibol, İbrahim Uslan, Mehmet Ali Guler, Murat Buyuk, Uğur Yolum

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According to the FAA report, 142603 bird strikes were reported for a period of 24 years, between 1990 – 2013. Bird strike with aerospace structures not only threaten the flight security but also cause financial loss and puts life in danger. The statistics show that most of the bird strikes are happening with the nose and the leading edge of the wings. Also, a substantial amount of bird strikes is absorbed by the jet engines and causes damage on blades and engine body. Crash proof designs are required to overcome the possibility of catastrophic failure of the airplane. Using computational methods for bird strike analysis during the product development phase has considerable importance in terms of cost saving. Clearly, using simulation techniques to reduce the number of reference tests can dramatically affect the total cost of an aircraft, where for bird strike often full-scale tests are considered. Therefore, development of validated numerical models is required that can replace preliminary tests and accelerate the design cycle. In this study, to verify the simulation parameters for a bird strike analysis, several different numerical options are studied for an impact case against a primitive structure. Then, a representative bird mode is generated with the verified parameters and collided against the leading edge of a training aircraft wing, where each structural member of the wing was explicitly modeled. A nonlinear explicit dynamics finite element code, LS-DYNA was used for the bird impact simulations. SPH methodology was used to model the behavior of the bird. Dynamic behavior of the wing superstructure was observed and will be used for further design optimization purposes.

Keywords: bird impact, bird strike, finite element modeling, smoothed particle hydrodynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 313

Authors: Suchithra V., Shreedhanya, Kavya Menon, Vidya Niranjan

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Skin metagenomics has a wide range of applications with direct relevance to the health of the organism. It gives us insight to the diverse community of microorganisms (the microbiome) harbored on the skin. In the recent years, it has become increasingly apparent that the interaction between skin microbiome and the human body plays a prominent role in immune system development, cancer development, disease pathology, and many other biological implications. Next Generation Sequencing has led to faster and better understanding of environmental organisms and their mutual interactions. This project is studying the human skin microbiome of different individuals having varied skin conditions. Bacterial 16S rRNA data of skin microbiome is downloaded from SRA toolkit provided by NCBI to perform metagenomics analysis. Twelve samples are selected with two controls, and 3 different categories, i.e., sex (male/female), skin type (moist/intermittently moist/sebaceous) and occlusion (occluded/intermittently occluded/exposed). Quality of the data is increased using Cutadapt, and its analysis is done using FastQC. USearch, a tool used to analyze an NGS data, provides a suitable platform to obtain taxonomy classification and abundance of bacteria from the metagenome data. The statistical tool used for analyzing the USearch result is METAGENassist. The results revealed that the top three abundant organisms found were: Prevotella, Corynebacterium, and Anaerococcus. Prevotella is known to be an infectious bacterium found on wound, tooth cavity, etc. Corynebacterium and Anaerococcus are opportunist bacteria responsible for skin odor. This result infers that Prevotella thrives easily in sebaceous skin conditions. Therefore it is better to undergo intermittently occluded treatment such as applying ointments, creams, etc. to treat wound for sebaceous skin type. Exposing the wound should be avoided as it leads to an increase in Prevotella abundance. Moist skin type individuals can opt for occluded or intermittently occluded treatment as they have shown to decrease the abundance of bacteria during treatment.

Keywords: bacterial 16S rRNA , next generation sequencing, skin metagenomics, skin microbiome, taxonomy

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Maram Shahad Dana Anfal

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This research paper presents the design of a surveillance drone with computer-aided durability and model analyses that provides a cost-effective and efficient solution for various applications. The quadcopter's design is based on a lightweight and strong structure made of materials such as aluminum and titanium, which provide a durable structure for the quadcopter. The structure of this product and the computer-aided durability system are both designed to ensure frequent repairs or replacements, which will save time and money in the long run. Moreover, the study discusses the drone's ability to track, investigate, and deliver objects more quickly than traditional methods, makes it a highly efficient and cost-effective technology. In this paper, a comprehensive analysis of the quadcopter's operation dynamics and limitations is presented. In both simulation and experimental data, the computer-aided durability system and the drone's design demonstrate their effectiveness, highlighting the potential for a variety of applications, such as search and rescue missions, infrastructure monitoring, and agricultural operations. Also, the findings provide insights into possible areas for improvement in the design and operation of the drone. Ultimately, this paper presents a reliable and cost-effective solution for surveillance applications by designing a drone with computer-aided durability and modeling. With its potential to save time and money, increase reliability, and enhance safety, it is a promising technology for the future of surveillance drones. operation dynamic equations have been evaluated successfully for different flight conditions of a quadcopter. Also, CAE modeling techniques have been applied for the modal risk assessment at operating conditions.Stress analysis have been performed under the loadings of the worst-case combined motion flight conditions.

Keywords: drone, material, solidwork, hypermesh

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: M. Rahou, A. J. Andrews, G. Rosengarten

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One of the main challenges in high-temperature solar thermal applications transfer concentrated solar radiation to the load with minimum energy loss and maximum overall efficiency. The use of a solar concentrator in conjunction with bundled optical fibres has potential advantages in terms of transmission energy efficiency, technical feasibility and cost-effectiveness compared to a conventional heat transfer system employing heat exchangers and a heat transfer fluid. In this paper, a theoretical and computer simulation method is described to estimate the net solar radiation transmission from a solar concentrator into and through optical fibres to a thermal application at the end of the fibres over distances of up to 100 m. A key input to the simulation is the angular distribution of radiation intensity at each point across the aperture plane of the optical fibre. This distribution depends on the optical properties of the solar concentrator, in this case, a parabolic mirror with a small secondary mirror with a common focal point and a point-focus Fresnel lens to give a collimated beam that pass into the optical fibre bundle. Since solar radiation comprises a broad band of wavelengths with very limited spatial coherence over the full range of spectrum only ray tracing models absorption within the fibre and reflections at the interface between core and cladding is employed, assuming no interference between rays. The intensity of the radiation across the exit plane of the fibre is found by integrating across all directions and wavelengths. Results of applying the simulation model to a parabolic concentrator and point-focus Fresnel lens with typical optical fibre bundle will be reported, to show how the energy transmission varies with the length of fibre.

Keywords: concentrated radiation, fibre bundle, parabolic dish, fresnel lens, transmission

Procedia PDF Downloads 556

Authors: Alilu Getahun Sulito

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Exceptional floods are now prevalent in many places in Ethiopia, resulting in a large number of human deaths and property destruction. Lake Boyo watershed, in particular, had also traditionally been vulnerable to flash floods throughout the Boyo watershed. The goal of this research is to create flood and inundation maps for the Boyo Catchment. The integration of Geographic information system(GIS) technology and the hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) were utilized as methods to attain the objective. The peak discharge was determined using Fuller empirical methodology for intervals of 5, 10, 15, and 25 years, and the results were 103.2 m3/s, 158 m3/s, 222 m3/s, and 252 m3/s, respectively. River geometry, boundary conditions, manning's n value of varying land cover, and peak discharge at various return periods were all entered into HEC-RAS, and then an unsteady flow study was performed. The results of the unsteady flow study demonstrate that the water surface elevation in the longitudinal profile rises as the different periods increase. The flood inundation charts clearly show that regions on the right and left sides of the river with the greatest flood coverage were 15.418 km2 and 5.29 km2, respectively, flooded by 10,20,30, and 50 years. High water depths typically occur along the main channel and progressively spread to the floodplains. The latest study also found that flood-prone areas were disproportionately affected on the river's right bank. As a result, combining GIS with hydraulic modelling to create a flood inundation map is a viable solution. The findings of this study can be used to care again for the right bank of a Boyo River catchment near the Boyo Lake kebeles, according to the conclusion. Furthermore, it is critical to promote an early warning system in the kebeles so that people can be evacuated before a flood calamity happens. Keywords: Flood, Weira River, Boyo, GIS, HEC- GEORAS, HEC- RAS, Inundation Mapping

Keywords: Weira River, Boyo, GIS, HEC- GEORAS, HEC- RAS, Inundation Mapping

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Rebecca Haythorne

Abstract:

Background: Agendas continuously emphasise the need to increase work based training and opportunities for individuals with learning disabilities. However research and statistics suggest that there is still significant stigma and stereotypes as to what they can contribute, or gain from being part of the working environment. Method: To tackles some of these prejudices an Occupational Therapy based intervention was developed for learning disability service users working at a social enterprise farm. The intervention aimed to increase positive public perception around individual capabilities and encourage individuals with learning disabilities to take ownership and be proud of their individual personhood and citizenship. This was achieved by using components of the Model of Human Occupation to tailor the intervention to individual values, skills and working contributions. The final project involved making creative wall art for public viewing, focusing on 'who works there and what they do'. This was accompanied by a visitor information guide, allowing individuals to tell visitors about themselves, the work they do and why it is meaningful to them. Outcomes: The intervention has helped to increased metal well-being and confidence of learning disability service users “people will know I work here now” and “I now have something to show my family about the work I do at the farm”. The intervention has also increased positive public perception and community awareness “you can really see the effort that’s gone into doing this” and “it’s a really visual experience to see people you don’t expect to see doing this type of work”. Resources left behind have further supported individuals to take ownership in creating more wall art to be sold at the farm shop. Conclusion: the intervention developed has helped to improve mental well-being of both service users and staff and improve community awareness. Due to this, the farm has decided to roll out the intervention to other areas of the social enterprise and is considering having more Occupational Therapy involvement in the future.

Keywords: citizenship, intervention, occupational therapy, personhood

Procedia PDF Downloads 453

Authors: Choukri Lekbir, Mira Mokhtari

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Hydrogen-Materials interaction and mechanisms can be modeled at nano scale by quantum methods. In this work, the effect of hydrogen on the electronic properties of a cluster material model «nickel» has been studied by using of density functional theoretical (DFT) method. Two types of clusters are optimized: Nickel and hydrogen-nickel system. In the case of nickel clusters (n = 1-6) without presence of hydrogen, three types of electronic structures (neutral, cationic and anionic), have been optimized according to three basis sets calculations (B3LYP/LANL2DZ, PW91PW91/DGDZVP2, PBE/DGDZVP2). The comparison of binding energies and bond lengths of the three structures of nickel clusters (neutral, cationic and anionic) obtained by those basis sets, shows that the results of neutral and anionic nickel clusters are in good agreement with the experimental results. In the case of neutral and anionic nickel clusters, comparing energies and bond lengths obtained by the three bases, shows that the basis set PBE/DGDZVP2 is most suitable to experimental results. In the case of anionic nickel clusters (n = 1-6) with presence of hydrogen, the optimization of the hydrogen-nickel (anionic) structures by using of the basis set PBE/DGDZVP2, shows that the binding energies and bond lengths increase compared to those obtained in the case of anionic nickel clusters without the presence of hydrogen, that reveals the armor effect exerted by hydrogen on the electronic structure of nickel, which due to the storing of hydrogen energy within nickel clusters structures. The comparison between the bond lengths for both clusters shows the expansion effect of clusters geometry which due to hydrogen presence.

Keywords: binding energies, bond lengths, density functional theoretical, geometry optimization, hydrogen energy, nickel cluster

Procedia PDF Downloads 411

Authors: K. Swapna

Abstract:

A Series of Alkali-Earth Boro Tellurite (AEBT) glasses doped with different concentrations of Dy³⁺ ions have been prepared by using melt quenching technique and characterized through spectroscopic techniques such as optical absorption, excitation, emission and photoluminescence decay to understand their utility in optoelectronic devices such as lasers and white light emitting diodes (w-LEDs). Raman spectrum recorded for an undoped glass is used to measure the phonon energy of the host glass and various functional groups present in the host glass (AEBT). The intensities of the electronic transitions and the ligand environment around the Dy³⁺ ions were studied by applying Judd-Ofelt (J-O) theory to the recorded absorption spectra of the glasses. The evaluated J-O parameters are subsequently used to measure various radiative parameters such as transition probability (AR), radiative branching ratio (βR) and radiative lifetimes (τR) for the prominent fluorescent levels of Dy³⁺ ions in the as-prepared glasses. The luminescence spectra recorded at 387 nm excitation show three emission transitions (⁴F9/2→⁶H15/2 (blue), ⁴F9/2→⁶H13/2 (yellow) and ⁴F9/2 → ⁶H11/2 (red)) of which the yellow transition observed at 575 nm is found to be highly intense. The experimental branching ratio (βexp) and stimulated emission crosssection (σse) were measured from luminescence spectra. The experimental lifetimes (τexp) measured from the decay spectral profiles are combined with radiative lifetimes to measure quantum efficiencies of the as-prepared glasses. The yellow to blue intensity ratios and chromaticity color coordinates are found to vary with Dy³⁺ ion concentrations. The aforementioned results reveal that these glasses are aptly suitable for w-LEDs and laser devices.

Keywords: glasses, J-O parameters, photoluminescence, I-H model

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Gabriel Woldu, Maria Sassi

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Coffee performs a pivotal role in Ethiopia's GDP, revenue, employment, domestic demand, and export earnings. Ethiopia's coffee production and exports show high variability in the amount of production and export earnings. Despite being the continent's fifth-largest coffee producer, Ethiopia has not developed its ability to shine as a major exporter in the globe's green coffee exports. Ethiopian coffee exports were not stable and had high volume and earnings fluctuations. The main aim of this study was to analyze the dynamics of the export of coffee variation to different importing nations using a first-order Markov Chain model. 14 years of time-series data has been used to examine the direction and structural change in the export of coffee. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was used to determine the annual growth rate in the coffee export quantity, value, and per-unit price over the study period. The major export markets for Ethiopian coffee were Germany, Japan, and the USA, which were more stable, while countries such as France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia were less stable and had low retention rates for Ethiopian coffee. The study, therefore, recommends that Ethiopia should again revitalize its market to France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia, as these countries are the major coffee-consuming countries in the world to boost its export stake to the global coffee markets in the future. In order to further enhance export stability, the Ethiopian Government and other stakeholders in the coffee sector should have to work on reducing the volatility of coffee output and exports in order to improve production and quality efficiency, so that stabilize markets as well as to make the product attractive and price competitive in the importing countries.

Keywords: coffee, CAGR, Markov chain, direction of trade, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 128