Search results for: direction of trade

Authors: Burcu Guvenek, Duygu Baysal Kurt

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The impact of foreign trade on economic growth has been discussed since the Classical Economists. Today, foreign trade has become more important for the country's economy with the increasing globalization. When it comes to foreign trade, policies which may vary from country to country and from time to time as protectionism or free trade are implemented. In general, the positive effect of foreign trade on economic growth is alleged. However, as studies supporting this general acceptance take place in the economics literature, there are also studies in the opposite direction. In this paper, the impact of foreign trade on economic growth will be investigated with the help of panel data analysis. For this research, 24 OECD countries’ GDP and foreign trade data, including the period of 1990 and 2010, will be used.

Keywords: foreign trade, economic growth, OECD countries, panel data analysis

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Authors: Shilpi Tripathi

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India has adopted the policy of economic reforms (Globalization, Liberalization, and Privatization) in 1991 which has reduced the trade barriers and investment restrictions and further increased the economy’s international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. The paper empirically studies the relationship between India’s international trades, GDP, FDI and environment during 1978-2012. The first part of the paper focuses on the background and trends of FDI, GDP, trade, and environment (CO2). The second part focuses on the literature regarding the relationship among all the variables. The last part of paper, we examine the results of empirical analysis like co integration and Granger causality between foreign trade, FDI inflows, GDP and CO2 since 1978. The findings of the paper revealed that there is only one uni- directional causality exists between GDP and trade. The direction of causality reveals that international trade is one of the major contributors to the economic growth (GDP). While, there is no causality found between GDP and FDI, FDI, and CO2 and International trade and CO2. The paper concludes with the policy recommendations that will ensure environmental friendly trade, investment and growth in India for future.

Keywords: international trade, foreign direct investment, GDP, CO2, co-integration, granger causality test

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Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nauman Ali

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This study has estimated the trade between USA and individual members of European Union using Gravity Model of Trade as The USA has a complex trade relationship with the European countries consist of a large number of consumers, which make USA dependent on EU for major of its total world trade. However, among the member of EU, the trade potential of USA with individual members of EU is not known. Panel data techniques e.g. Random Effect, Fixed Effect and Pooled Panel have been applied to secondary quantitative data to analyze the Trade between USA and EU. Trade Potential of USA with individual members of EU has been obtained using the ratio of Actual trade of USA with EU members and the trade as predicted by Gravity Model. The Study concluded that the USA has greater trade potential with 16 members of EU, including Croatia, Portugal and United Kingdom on top. On the other hand, Finland, Ireland, and France are the top countries with which the USA has exhaustive trade potential.

Keywords: analytical technique, economic, gravity, international trade, significant

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Authors: İmran Ugur, Zulfiye Acar

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Trade marks are composed of figures, signs or symbols such as logos, colours and designs to be formed for service or products to be different from their counterparts. However, trade marks have nowadays a large meaning that defines its classical description. It has an understanding that pioneers novelties by forming the perception of quality, being emotional constituents and leading to links to their consumers. While entering different markets all over the world, Turkish trade marks are encountering a new type of consumers in Turkey migrating from different countries. Most of these new consumers meet Turkish trade marks for the first time. The present study was performed to investigate the perception of Turkish trade marks living in Konya. How these consumers look at the trade marks of clothes, food, beverages, GSM operators and whiteware appliances, and perceive these trade marks were tried to be determined. Which trade marks they chose according to their preferences, and the awareness of Turkish trade marks were evaluated in the study.

Keywords: brand, brand awareness, culture, trade marks

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Authors: Mouhamed Mbouandi Njikam

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This work assesses the trade potential of countries in the Economic Community of Central Africa States (ECCAS). The gravity model of trade is used to evaluate the trade flows of member countries, and to compute the trade potential index of ECCAS during 1995-2010. The focus is on the removal of tariffs and non-tariff barriers in the sub-region. Estimates from the gravity model are used for the calculation of the sub-region’s commercial potential. Its three main findings are: (i) the background research shows a low level of integration in the sub-region and open economies; (ii) a low level of industrialization and diversification are the main factors reducing trade potential in the sub-region; (iii) the trade creation predominate on the deflections of trade between member countries.

Keywords: gravity model, ECCAS, trade flows, trade potential, regional cooperation

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Authors: Anisul Islam

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The U.S. has a very strong trade relationship with China but with a large and persistent trade deficit. Some has argued that the undervalued Chinese Yuan is to be blamed for the persistent trade deficit. The empirical results are mixed at best. This paper empirically estimates the U.S. export function along with the U.S. import function with its trade with China with the purpose of testing for the existence of the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition as well for the possible existence of the J-curve hypothesis. Annual export and import data will be utilized for as long as the time series data exists. The export and import functions will be estimated using advanced econometric techniques, along with appropriate diagnostic tests performed to examine the validity and reliability of the estimated results. The annual time-series data covers from 1975 to 2022 with a sample size of 48 years, the longest period ever utilized before in any previous study. The data is collected from several sources, such as the World Bank’s World Development Indicators, IMF Financial Statistics, IMF Direction of Trade Statistics, and several other sources. The paper is expected to shed important light on the ongoing debate regarding the persistent U.S. trade deficit with China and the policies that may be useful to reduce such deficits over time. As such, the paper will be of great interest for the academics, researchers, think tanks, global organizations, and policy makers in both China and the U.S.

Keywords: exports, imports, marshall-lerner condition, j-curve hypothesis, united states, china

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Authors: Shilpi Tripathi

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After independence, Bangladesh had to learn to survive on its own without any economic crutches (aid). Foreign direct investment (FDI) became a crucial economic tool for the country to become economically independent. The government started removing restrictions to encourage foreign investment, economic growth, international trade, and the environment. FDI is considered as a way to bridge the saving-investment gap, reduce poverty, balance trade, create jobs for its vast labour force, increase foreign exchange earnings and acquire new modern technology and management skills in the country. At the same time, spillovers of foreign investments in Bangladesh, such as low wages (compared to laborers of developed countries), poor working conditions and unbridled exploitation of the domestic resources, environmental externalities, etc., cannot be ignored. The most important adverse implications of FDI inflows noticed are the environmental problems, which are further impacting the health and society of the country. This paper empirically studies the relationship between FDI, economic growth, international trade (exports and Imports), and the environment since 1996. The first part of the paper focuses on the background and trends of FDI, GDP, trade, and environment (CO₂). The second part focuses on the literature review on the relationship between all the variables. The last part of the paper examines the results of empirical analysis like co-integration and Granger causality. The findings of the paper reveal that a uni-directional relationship exists between FDI, CO₂, and international trade (exports and imports). The direction of the causality reveals that FDI inflow is one of the major contributors to high-volume international trade. At the same time, FDI and international trade both are contributing to carbon emissions in Bangladesh. The paper concludes with the policy recommendations that will ensure environmentally friendly trade, investment, and growth in Bangladesh for the future.

Keywords: foreign direct investment, GDP, international trade, CO₂, Granger causality, environment

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Authors: Julio Vicente Cateia

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This paper aims to assess the role of informality and trade facilitation on the export probability of Guinea-Bissau. We include informality in the Féchet function, which gives the expression for the country's supply probability. We find that Guinea-Bissau is about 7.2% less likely to export due to the 1% increase in informality. The export's probability increases by about 1.7%, 4%, and 1.1% due to a 1% increase in trade facilitation, R&D stock, and year of education. These results are significant at the usual levels. We suggest a development agenda aimed at reducing the level of informality in this country.

Keywords: development, trade, informality, trade facilitation, economy of Guinea-Bissau

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Authors: Emma Serwaa Obobisaa, Haibo Chen

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International trade and outward foreign direct investment are important factors which are generally recognized in the economic growth and development. Though several scholars have struggled to reveal the influence of trade and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth, most studies utilized common econometric models such as vector autoregression and aggregated the variables, which for the most part prompts, however, contradictory and mixed results. Thus, there is an exigent need for the precise study of the trade and FDI effect of economic growth while applying strong econometric models and disaggregating the variables into its separate individual variables to explicate their respective effects on economic growth. This will guarantee the provision of policies and strategies that are geared towards individual variables to ensure sustainable development and growth. This study, therefore, seeks to examine the causal effect of China-Africa trade and Outward Foreign Direct Investment on the economic growth of Africa using a robust and recent econometric approach such as system dynamics model. Our study impanels and tests an ensemble of a group of vital variables predominant in recent studies on trade-FDI-economic growth causality: Foreign direct ınvestment, international trade and economic growth. Our results showed that the system dynamics method provides accurate statistical inference regarding the direction of the causality among the variables than the conventional method such as OLS and Granger Causality predominantly used in the literature as it is more robust and provides accurate, critical values.

Keywords: economic growth, outward foreign direct investment, system dynamics model, international trade

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Authors: E. Selçuk, Z. Karaçor, P. Yardımcı

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Trade liberalization and its effects on the economies of developing countries have been investigated by many different studies, and some of them have focused on its impact on the current account balance. Turkey, as being one of the countries, which has liberalized its foreign trade in the 1980s, also needs to be studied in terms of the impact of liberalization on current account deficits. Therefore, the aim of this study is to find out whether trade liberalization has affected Turkey’s trade and current account balances. In order to determine this, yearly data of Turkey from 1980 to 2013 is used. As liberalization dummy, the year 1989, which was set for Turkey, is selected. Structural break test and model estimation results show that trade liberalization has a negative impact on trade balance but do not have a significant impact on the current account balance.

Keywords: budget deficit, liberalization, Turkish economy, current account

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Authors: Sarita D. Jackson

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Agriculture remains a sensitive issue during multilateral trade negotiations within the World Trade Organization (WTO). Similar problems arise at the bilateral level, as in the case of trade talks between the United States and the Dominican Republic. The study explores the determinant of agricultural industry competitiveness in the 21^st century, particularly in the case of U.S. and Dominican agriculture in each other’s market. Complementing existing scholarship on industry competitiveness, the study argues that trade rules that are established under preferential access programs and trade agreements play a significant role in shaping an industry’s ability to compete. The final analysis is used to offer recommendations to the same sector in Cuba. Cuba currently relies heavily on U.S. food imports and is experiencing the gradual opening of trade with the United States.

Keywords: agriculture, bargaining, competitiveness, Dominican Republic, DR-CAFTA, free trade agreement, institutions

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Authors: Terefe Alemu

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This study is intended to examine Ethiopia’s trade flow determinants and trade potential with G20 countries whether it was overtraded or there is/are trade potential by using trade gravity model. The sources of panel data used were IMF, WDI, United Nations population division, The Heritage Foundation, Washington's No. 1 think tank online website database, online distance calculator, and others for the duration of 2010 to 2019 for 10 consecutive years. The empirical data analyzing tool used was Random effect model (REM), which is effective in estimation of time-invariant data. The empirical data analyzed using STATA software result indicates that Ethiopia has a trade potential with seven countries of G20, whereas Ethiopia overtrade with 12 countries and EU region. The Ethiopia’s and G20 countries/region bilateral trade flow statistically significant/ p<0.05/determinants were the population of G20 countries, growth domestic products of G20 countries, growth domestic products of Ethiopia, geographical distance between Ethiopia and G20 countries. The top five G20 countries exported to Ethiopia were china, United State of America, European Union, India, and South Africa, whereas the top five G20 countries imported from Ethiopia were EU, China, United State of America, Saudi Arabia, and Germany, respectively. Finally, the policy implication were Ethiopia has to Keep the consistence of trade flow with overtraded countries and improve with under traded countries through trade policy revision, and secondly, focusing on the trade determinants to improve trade flow is recommended.

Keywords: trade gravity model, trade determinants, G20, international trade, trade potential

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Authors: Mikail Altan

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International trust takes first place in the development of foreign trade in the country. They see an important role in ensuring that trust. Various payment methods that are developed in the banking system provide fast and reliable way to execution and promote foreign trade by financing the foreign trade. In this study, we investigate the influence of bank on foreign trade in Turkey. 26 years of data for 1990-2015 period have been used in this study. After correlation analysis, a simple regression model was established. Payment methods that are developed in the banking system make a positive contribution in Turkey’s foreign trade volume. In addition, the export of Turkey was affected positively more than import’s by these payment methods.

Keywords: banks, export, foreign trade, import

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Authors: Olakunle Felix Adekunle

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In the recent years several non-tariff provisions have been regarded as means holding back transboundary environmental damages. Affected countries have then increasingly come up with trade policies to compensate for or to In recent years, several non‐tariff trade provisions have been regarded as means of holding back transboundary environmental damages. Affected countries have then increasingly come up with trade policies to compensate for or to enforce the adoption of environmental policies elsewhere. These non‐tariff trade constraints are claimed to threaten the freedom of trading across nations, as well as the harmonization sought towards the distribution of income and policy measures. Therefore the ‘greening’ of world trade issues essentially ranges over whether there ought or ought not to be a trade‐off between trade and environmental policies. The impacts of free trade and environmental policies on major economic variables (such as trade flows, balances of trade, resource allocation, output, consumption and welfare) are thus studied here, and so is the EKC hypothesis, when such variables are played against the resulting emission levels. The policy response is seen as a political game, played here by two representative parties named North and South. Whether their policy choices, simulated by four scenarios, are right or wrong depends on their policy goals, split into economic and environmental ones.

Keywords: environmental, policies, strategies, constraint

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Authors: Marcel Kohler

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The effect of trade liberalization on environmental conditions has yielded a great deal of debate in the current energy economics literature. Although research on the relationship between income growth and CO2 emissions is not new in South Africa, few studies address the role that South Africa’s foreign trade plays in this context. This paper undertakes to investigate empirically the impact of South Africa’s foreign trade reforms over the last four decades on its energy consumption and CO2 emissions by taking into account not only the direct effect of trade on each, but also its indirect effect through income induced growth. Using co integration techniques we attempt to disentangle the long and short-run relationship between trade openness, income per capita and energy consumption and CO2 emissions in South Africa. The preliminary results of this study find support for a positive bi-directional relationship between output and CO2 emissions, as well as between trade openness and CO2. This evidence confirms the expectation that as the South African economy opens up to foreign trade and experiences growth in per capita income, the countries CO2 emissions will increase.

Keywords: trade openness, CO2 emissions, cointegration, South Africa

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Authors: Pınar Yardımcı

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This paper tries to answer to the questions whether or not trade openness cause economic growth and trade policy changes is good for Turkey as a developing country in global economy before and after 1980. We employ Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests with error correction modelling based on vector autoregressive. Using WDI data from the pre-1980 and the post-1980, we find that trade openness and economic growth are cointegrated in the second term only. Also the results suggest a lack of long-run causality between our two variables. These findings may imply that trade policy of Turkey should concentrate more on extra complementary economic reforms.

Keywords: globalization, trade policy, economic growth, openness, cointegration, Turkey

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Authors: Mosses E. Lufuke

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This paper attempted to investigate whether there is Granger-causality running from trade to environment as evidenced in the changing climatic condition and land degradation. Using Tanzania as the reference, VAR-Granger-causality test was employed to rationalize the conundrum of causal-effect relationship between trade and environment. The changing climatic condition, as the proxy of both nitrous oxide emissions (in thousand metric tons of CO₂ equivalent) and land degradation measured by the size of arable land were tested against trade using both exports and imports variables. The result indicated that neither of the trade variables Granger-cause the variability on gas emissions and arable land size. This suggests the possibility that all trade concerns in relation to environment to have been internalized in domestic policies to offset any likely negative consequence.

Keywords: environment, growth, impact, trade

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Authors: Aarushi Baloria, Joshina Jamwal

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The paper attempts to understand the genesis of the Kashmir conflict, the LoC trade, and the various challenges which impede LoC trade. The paper further understands how this trade assists in mitigating tension between the countries and act as a conference building measure (CBM). The paper discusses later on the positive aspects of LoC trade with the help of statistical data like increase in state's economy along with negatives like smuggling of arms, drugs, swapping and interchanging of Hawala money and other unconstitutional activities like terrorism that took place on trade points across LoC. Moreover, the paper also mentioned in the international context; the episodes of Ireland of Europe, Palestine of Middle East, Uganda of Africa not only as transaction step but also as a peace channel between the fragmented parts. Thus, the paper, in a nutshell, reflects how the trade across LoC benefited in various psychological, economic, and political reasons, and it is worth taking risk, taking its overall positive things into consideration.

Keywords: drugs, economy, international, peace, psychological, trade

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Authors: Sakapas Saengchai, Pichamon Chansuchai

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Research Thai- Myanmar Border Trade Promotion Policy, Mae Sai District, Chiang Rai Province The objectives of this study were to study the policy of promoting Thai- Myanmar border trade in Mae Sai district, Chiang Rai province. And suitable models for the development of border trade in Mae Sai. Chiang Rai province This research uses qualitative methodology. The method of collecting data from research papers. Participatory Observation In-depth interviews in which the information is important, the governor of Chiang Rai. Chiang Rai Customs Service Executive Office of Mae Sai Immigration Bureau Maesai Chamber of Commerce and Private Entrepreneurs By specific sampling Data analysis uses content analysis. The study indicated that Border Trade Promotion Policy The direction taken by the government to focus on developing 1. Security is further reducing crime. Smuggling and human trafficking Including the preparation to protect people from terrorism and natural disasters. And cooperation with Burma on border security. 2. The development of wealth is the promotion of investment. The transport links, logistics value chain. Products and services across the Thai-Myanmar border. Improve the regulations and laws to promote fair trade. Convenient and fast 3. Sustainable development is the ability to generate income, quality of life of people in the Thai border to increase continuously. By using balanced natural resources, production and consumption are environmentally friendly. Which featured the participation of all sectors of the public and private sectors in the region to drive the development of the border with Thailand. Chiang Rai province To be more competitive .

Keywords: Border, Trade, Policy, Promote

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Authors: Shabana Noureen, Zafar Mahmood

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Economies consistently engage in trade across borders and face tariff, non-tariff barriers and other quotas that constitute trade costs. The trade costs imposed by policy barriers on exports are considered an impediment in the export growth rate. This work aims to measure over-year trends in total and bilateral trade costs and their trends in relevance to policy barriers (tariff and non-tariff). The analysis through the micro-founded theoretically based gravity model showed that the total trade costs have a general decreasing trend in the world while in the case of developing countries, the rate by which these trends decline is very low. Bilateral trade cost estimates associated with the policy barriers represent that the non-tariff barriers in a developing country have a major role in sustaining the high trade costs as compared to the tariff barriers. This ultimately leads to a low net declining rate. This work emphasizes that for developing countries the non-tariff barriers are a major factor that renders their exports and to be uncompetitive in the world market.

Keywords: trade costs, policy barriers, tariff barriers, non-tariff barriers, trade policies, export growth

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Authors: Luqman Afolabi

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This paper measures the impacts of trade and institutions on environmental quality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To examine the direction and the magnitude of the effects, the study employs the pooled mean group (PMG) estimation technique on the panel data obtained from the World Bank’s World Development and Governance Indicators, between 1996 and 2018. The empirical estimates validate the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis (EKC) for the region, even though there have been inconclusive results on the environment – growth nexus. Similarly, a positive coefficient is obtained on the impact of trade on the environment, while the impact of the institutional indicators produce mixed results. A significant policy implication is that the governments of the SSA countries pursue policies that tend to increase economic growth, so that pollutants may be reduced. Such policies may include the provision of incentives for sustainable growth-driven industries in the region. In addition, the governance infrastructures should be improved in such a way that appropriate penalties are imposed on the pollutants, while advanced technologies that have the potentials to reduce environmental degradation should be encouraged. Finally, it is imperative from these findings that the governments of the region should promote their trade relations and the competitiveness of their local industries in order to keep pace with the global markets.

Keywords: environmental quality, institutional quality sustainable development goals, trade

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Authors: Christina Tay

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This paper investigates the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on bilateral trade in goods. Empirical analysis is performed on the United States and 34 partnering countries from 2000 to 2013. Our econometric model fits the data well, explaining 52% of the variation in trade flows for goods trade, 53.2% of the variation in trade flows for goods export and 48% of the variation in trade flows for goods import. For every 10% increase in fixed broadband Internet subscribers per 100 people increases, goods trade by 7.9% and for every 5% increase in fixed broadband Internet subscribers per 100 people, goods export increases by 11%. For every 1% increase in fixed telephone line penetration per 100 people, goods trade increases by 26.3%, goods export increases by 24.4% and goods import increases by 24.8%. For every 1% increase in mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions, goods trade decreases by 29.6% and goods export decreases by 27.1%, whilst for every 0.01% increase in mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions, goods import decreases by 34.3%. For every 1% increase in the percentage of population who used the Internet from any location in the last 12 months Internet, goods trade increases by 32.5%, goods export increases by 38.9%, goods import increases by 33%. All our trade determinants as well as our ICT variables have significances on goods exports for the US. We can also draw from our study that the US relies more rather heavily on ICT for its goods export compared to goods import.

Keywords: bilateral trade, fixed broadband, fixed telephone, goods trade, information and communicative technologies, Internet, mobile-cellular phone

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Authors: Łukasz Ambroziak

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Although the impact of the production fragmentation on trade flows has been examined many times since the 1990s, the research was not comprehensive because of the limitations in traditional trade statistics. Early 2010s the complex databases containing world input-output tables (or indicators calculated on their basis) has made available. It increased the possibilities of examining the production sharing in the world. The trade statistic in value-added terms enables us better to estimate trade changes resulted from the internationalisation and globalisation as well as benefits of the countries from international trade. In the literature, there are many research studies on this topic. Unfortunately, trade in value added of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) has been so far insufficiently studied. Thus, the aim of the paper is to present changes in value added trade of the CEECs (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) in the period of 1995-2011. The concept 'trade in value added' or 'value added trade' is defined as the value added of a country which is directly and indirectly embodied in final consumption of another country. The typical question would be: 'How much value added is created in a country due to final consumption in the other countries?' The data will be downloaded from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). The structure of this paper is as follows. First, theoretical and methodological aspects related to the application of the input-output tables in the trade analysis will be studied. Second, a brief survey of the empirical literature on this topic will be presented. Third, changes in exports and imports in value added of the CEECs will be analysed. A special attention will be paid to the differences in bilateral trade balances using traditional trade statistics (in gross terms) on one side, and value added statistics on the other. Next, in order to identify factors influencing value added exports and value added imports of the CEECs the generalised gravity model, based on panel data, will be used. The dependent variables will be value added exports and imports. The independent variables will be, among others, the level of GDP of trading partners, the level of GDP per capita of trading partners, the differences in GDP per capita, the level of the FDI inward stock, the geographical distance, the existence (or non-existence) of common border, the membership (or not) in preferential trade agreements or in the EU. For comparison, an estimation will also be made based on exports and imports in gross terms. The initial research results show that the gravity model better explained determinants of trade in value added than gross trade (R2 in the former is higher). The independent variables had the same direction of impact both on value added exports/imports and gross exports/imports. Only value of coefficients differs. The most difference concerned geographical distance. It had smaller impact on trade in value added than gross trade.

Keywords: central and eastern European countries, gravity model, input-output tables, trade in value added

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Authors: Musa Njabulo Shongwe

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The multilateral trading system is facing a great danger of fragmentation. Its modus operandi, multilateralism, is increasingly becoming clogged by trade barriers created by the proliferation of preferential regional trading blocs. The paper explores the fragmentation of the multilateral trade regulation system (WTO law) by analysing whether and to what extent Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) have conflicted with the Multilateral Trading System. The paper examines the effects of RTA dominance in view of the WTO's quest for trade liberalization. This is an important inquiry because the proliferation of RTAs implies the erosion of the WTO law’s core principle of non-discrimination. The paper further explores how the proliferation of RTAs has endangered the coherence of the multilateral trading system. The study is carried out with the initial assumption that RTAs could be complementary and coherent with WTO law, and thus facilitate international trade and enhance development prospects. There is evidence that is tested by this study which suggests that RTAs can be divergent and hence undermine the WTO multilateral rules of regulating international trade. The paper finally recommends legal tools of regulating and managing the WTO-RTA interface, as well as other legal means of ensuring a harmonious existence between the WTO and regional trade arrangements.

Keywords: fragmentation of international trade law, regionalism, regional trade agreements, WTO law

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Authors: M. Priscila Ramos, Omar O. Chisari, Juan Pablo Vila Martínez

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Current literature about trade liberalization of environmental goods and services (EGS) raises doubts about the extent of the triple win-win situation for trade, development and the environment. However, much of this literature does not consider the possibility that this agreement carries technological transmissions, either through trade or foreign direct investment. This paper presents a computable general equilibrium model calibrated for Argentina, where there are alternative technologies (one dirty and one clean according to carbon emissions) to produce the same goods. In this context, the trade liberalization of EGS allows to increase GDP, trade, reduce unemployment and improve the households welfare. However, the capital mobility appears as the key assumption to jointly reach the environmental target, when the positive scale effect generated by the increase in trade is offset by the change in the composition of production (composition and technical effects by the use of the clean alternative technology) and of consumption (composition effect by substitution of relatively lesspolluting imported goods).

Keywords: CGE modeling, CO2 emissions, composition effect, scale effect, technique effect, trade liberalization of EGS

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Authors: Masoud Charkhabi

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We examine trade theory with this motivation. The full set of World Trade Organization data are organized into country-year pairs, each treated as a different entity. Topological Data Analysis reveals that among the 16 region and 240 region-year pairs there exists in fact a distinguishable group of region-period pairs. The generally accepted periods of shifts from dissimilar-dissimilar to similar-similar trade in goods among regions are examined from this new perspective. The period breaks are treated as cumulative and are flexible. This type of all-subsets analysis is motivated from computer science and is made possible with Lossy Compression and Graph Theory. The results question many patterns in similar-similar to dissimilar-dissimilar trade. They also show indications of economic shifts that only later become evident in other economic metrics.

Keywords: econometrics, globalization, network science, topological data, analysis, trade theory, visualization, world trade

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Authors: Natasha Lalla

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The impact of free trade on growth has been highly debated and studies have generated varying results. Since the 1970s the Caribbean has engaged in asymmetrical trade with some European states characterized by the Lomé Conventions (1975-1999). These agreements allowed for Caribbean products such as sugar and banana to enter some European countries duty-free and above market prices. With the onset of the World Trade Organization by the mid-1990s, the EU’s banana trade regime was considered illegitimate. Lomé was replaced by the Cotonou agreement (2000-2007), in order to phase out preferences and ensure that the Caribbean trade arrangements were consistent with the international economic environment of trade liberalization. This agreement facilitated signing of the Economic Partnership Agreement in 2008 by both trade blocs whereby Caribbean states must implement freer trade by 2033. The current study is an exploration of how the Organization of the Eastern Caribbean States, the smallest, economically and ecologically vulnerable states of the Caribbean have restructured their trade policies towards the end of preferences and what has been the economic developmental impact of this. This is done by analyzing key reports to understand how these states restructured policies towards freer trade. Secondly, to determine the impact of this, data collected for specific economic indicators were analyzed in a fixed effects panel data framework for the period 1979-2016 on six states of the Organization of the Eastern Caribbean States. The study, therefore, found that freer trade has resulted in negative growth in these states.

Keywords: free trade, growth, OECS, small island developing states

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Authors: Yasir Khan

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The continued growth in international students coming to China for higher education had a significant positive impact on trade and GDP in China. Student mobility may expend trade with their country of origin, owing to superior knowledge, or preferential access to market opportunities. We test this hypothesis using Chinese trade data from 1999 to 2017. In fully-modify (OLS) and dynamic (OLS) testing estimation, we find that a 1.24 percent increase in student inward mobility is associated with a 1 percent increase in Chinese export trade. On the other hand, we find that a 1.18 percent increase in the student inward mobility to China is associated with a 1 percent increase in import trade. In addition, we find that a 1.13 percent increase in international student inward mobility is associated with a 1 percent increase in the GDP. The outcome suggests that international students have a strong influence on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exports and imports trade. However, the study holds that the government should attach great attachment and importance to the role of international students in the export and import trade.

Keywords: international student mobility, China, export, import, GDP, FMOLS, DOLS

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Authors: Md. Mahadi Hasan Sany, Mumenunnessa Keya, Sharun Khushbu, Sheikh Abujar

Abstract:

Since the beginning of China's economic reform, trade between the U.S. and China has grown rapidly, and has increased since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. The US imports more than it exports from China, reducing the trade war between China and the U.S. for the 2019 trade deficit, but in 2020, the opposite happens. In international and U.S. trade, Washington launched a full-scale trade war against China in March 2016, which occurred a catastrophic epidemic. The main goal of our study is to measure and predict trade relations between China and the U.S., before and after the arrival of the COVID epidemic. The ML model uses different data as input but has no time dimension that is present in the time series models and is only able to predict the future from previously observed data. The LSTM (a well-known Recurrent Neural Network) model is applied as the best time series model for trading forecasting. We have been able to create a sustainable forecasting system in trade between China and the US by closely monitoring a dataset published by the State Website NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2021. Throughout the survey, we provided a 180-day forecast that outlined what would happen to trade between China and the US during COVID-19. In addition, we have illustrated that the LSTM model provides outstanding outcome in time series data analysis rather than RFR and SVR (e.g., both ML models). The study looks at how the current Covid outbreak affects China-US trade. As a comparative study, RMSE transmission rate is calculated for LSTM, RFR and SVR. From our time series analysis, it can be said that the LSTM model has given very favorable thoughts in terms of China-US trade on the future export situation.

Keywords: RFR, China-U.S. trade war, SVR, LSTM, deep learning, Covid-19, export value, forecasting, time series analysis

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Authors: Tanimola Kazeem Abiodun

Abstract:

In the paper, attempt was made to investigate the impact of international trade on economic growth at the disaggregate level both from the theoretical and economic angle. The study in its contribution examines this impact at the disaggregated level. To this end, a hypothesis was formulated to investigate the short ?run and long run impact of international trade on growth in the country. In the econometrics investigation that follow, international trade was disaggregated to export and imports and their short run and long run effect on growth was examined. Also, the aggregate international trade was also investigated to see the long run effects of its own growth. The results of the findings indicate that; both export and import impact significantly to growth in the short run. The long-run impact of export on growth was found to be positive, significant and stable both. Engle-Granger co integration test and error correlation mechanism were applied to these long run relationships. For the import, while the short run was found to be positive and significant on its impact on growth, the long run relationship was found to be negative but not significant. Therefore, it is thus recommended among others that the country should engage more on export promotion drives.

Keywords: international trade, disaggregated, import, export, econometrics, trade, economic growth, foreign trade, import, export

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