Search results for: housing price prediction

Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

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A dynamic development of financial market is accompanied by the emergence of new products on stock exchanges which give absolutely new possibilities of investing money. Currently, the most innovative financial instruments offered to investors are exchange traded products (ETP). They can be defined as financial instruments whose price depends on the value of the underlying instrument. Thus, they offer investors a possibility of making a profit that results from the change in value of the underlying instrument without having to buy it. Currently, the Warsaw Stock Exchange offers many types of ETPs. They are investment products with full or partial capital protection, products without capital protection as well as leverage products, issued on such underlying instruments as indices, sector indices, commodity indices, prices of energy commodities, precious metals, agricultural produce or prices of shares of domestic and foreign companies. This paper presents the mechanism of functioning of ETP available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and the results of the analysis of statistical data on these financial instruments.

Keywords: exchange traded products, financial market, investment, stock exchange

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Authors: Ben Nwokenkwo, Michael M. Eze, Felix Ike

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The need to study trends in land values around institutions of higher learning cannot be overemphasized. Numerous studies in Nigeria have investigated the economic, and social influence of the sitting of institutions of higher learning at the micro, meso and macro levels. However, very few studies have evaluated the temporal extent at which such institution influences local land values. Since institutions greatly influence both the physical and environmental aspects of their immediate vicinity, attention must be taken to understand the influence of such changes on land values. This study examines the trend in land values using the Mann-Kendall analysis in order to determine if, between its beginning and end, a monotonic increase, decrease or stability exist in the land values across six institutions of higher learning for the period between 2004 and 2014. Specifically, The analysis was applied to the time series of the price(or value) of the land .The results of this study revealed that land values has either been increasing or remained stabled across all the institution sampled. The study finally recommends measures that can be put in place as counter magnets for land values estimation across institutions of higher learning.

Keywords: influence, land, trend, value

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Authors: Eun-Taek Sin, Hyun-Ju Jang, Chang Geun Song, Yong-Sik Han

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Due to the climate change, the coastal urban area repeatedly suffers from the loss of property and life by flooding. There are three main causes of inland submergence. First, when heavy rain with high intensity occurs, the water quantity in inland cannot be drained into rivers by increase in impervious surface of the land development and defect of the pump, storm sewer. Second, river inundation occurs then water surface level surpasses the top of levee. Finally, Coastal inundation occurs due to rising sea water. However, previous studies ignored the complex mechanism of flooding, and showed discrepancy and inadequacy due to linear summation of each analysis result. In this study, inland flooding and river inundation were analyzed together by HDM-2D model. Petrov-Galerkin stabilizing method and flux-blocking algorithm were applied to simulate the inland flooding. In addition, sink/source terms with exponentially growth rate attribute were added to the shallow water equations to include the inland flooding analysis module. The applications of developed model gave satisfactory results, and provided accurate prediction in comprehensive flooding analysis. The applications of developed model gave satisfactory results, and provided accurate prediction in comprehensive flooding analysis. To consider the coastal surge, another module was developed by adding seawater to the existing Inland Flooding-River Inundation binding module for comprehensive flooding analysis. Based on the combined modules, the Coastal Inundation – Inland & River Flow Interface was simulated by inputting the flow rate and depth data in artificial flume. Accordingly, it was able to analyze the flood patterns of coastal cities over time. This study is expected to help identify the complex causes of flooding in coastal areas where complex flooding occurs, and assist in analyzing damage to coastal cities. Acknowledgements—This research was supported by a grant ‘Development of the Evaluation Technology for Complex Causes of Inundation Vulnerability and the Response Plans in Coastal Urban Areas for Adaptation to Climate Change’ [MPSS-NH-2015-77] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korea.

Keywords: flooding analysis, river inundation, inland flooding, 2D hydrodynamic model

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Authors: Md. Abud Darda

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Different options for natural gas production in wide geographic areas may be described through diffusion of innovation models. This type of modeling approach provides an indirect estimate of an ultimately recoverable resource, URR, capture the quantitative effects of observed strategic interventions, and allow ex-ante assessments of future scenarios over time. In order to ensure a sustainable energy policy, it is important to forecast the availability of this natural resource. Considering a finite life cycle, in this paper we try to investigate the natural gas production of Myanmar and Algeria, two important natural gas provider in the world energy market. A number of homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models, with convenient extensions, have been used. Models validation has also been performed in terms of prediction capability.

Keywords: diffusion models, energy forecast, natural gas, nonlinear production

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Authors: Mona Heydari, Ehsan Motamedian, Seyed Abbas Shojaosadati

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Prediction of perturbations after genetic manipulation (especially gene knockout) is one of the important challenges in systems biology. In this paper, a new algorithm is introduced that integrates microarray data into the metabolic model. The algorithm was used to study the change in the cell phenotype after knockout of Gss gene in Escherichia coli BW25113. Algorithm implementation indicated that gene deletion resulted in more activation of the metabolic network. Growth yield was more and less regulating gene were identified for mutant in comparison with the wild-type strain.

Keywords: metabolic network, gene knockout, flux balance analysis, microarray data, integration

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Authors: Andreas Rüdiger

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The selection of appropriate wastewater treatment technology for decentralized coastal tourist areas is an important engineering challenge. The local situation in coastal tourist cities and villages is characterized by important daily and seasonal fluctuations in hydraulic flow and pollution, high annual temperature variations, scarcity of building area and high housing density. At the same time, coastal zones have to meet stringent effluent limits all over the year and need simple and easy technologies to operate. This article presents the innovative technology of standardized modular aerated up-flow biofiltration SMBF as an adapted solution for decentralized wastewater treatment in sensitive touristic coastal areas. As modular technology with several biofiltration units, the system is able to treat low and high loads with low energy consumption and low demands for operators. The article focuses on the climatic and tourist situation in Croatia. Full-scale plants in Eastern Europe and Croatia have presented as well as dimensioning parameters and outlet concentrations. Energy consumption as a function of load is demonstrated.

Keywords: wastewater treatment, biofiltration, touristic areas, energy saving

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Authors: Katleho Daniel Makatjane, Diteboho Lawrence Xaba, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke

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The current study investigates the behaviour of time-varying parameters that are based on the score function of the predictive model density at time t. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. The results revealed that there is high persistence of time-varying, as the location parameter is higher and the skewness parameter implied the departure of scale parameter from the normality with the unconditional parameter as 1.5. The results also revealed that there is a perseverance of the leptokurtic behaviour in stock returns which implies the returns are heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS model. Finally, we proposed further researches specifically to model the existence of time-varying parameters with a more detailed model that encounters the heavy tail distribution of the series and computes the risk measure associated with the returns.

Keywords: generalized autoregressive score model, South Africa, stock returns, time-varying

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Authors: Won-Gon Kim

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Introduction: The clinical value of arterial line filters is still a controversial issue. Proponents of arterial line filtration argue that filters remove particulate matter and undissolved gas from circulation, while opponents argue the absence of conclusive clinical data. We conducted scanning electron microscope (SEM) studies of arterial line filters used clinically in the CPB circuits during adult cardiac surgery and analyzed the types and characteristics of materials entrapped in the arterial line filters. Material and Methods: Twelve arterial line filters were obtained during routine hypothermic cardiopulmonary bypass in 12 adult cardiac patients. The arterial line filter was a screen type with a pore size of 40 ㎛ (Baxter Health care corporation Bentley division, Irvine, CA, U.S.A.). After opening the housing, the woven polyester strands were examined with SEM. Results and Conclusion: All segments examined(120 segments, each 2.5 X 2.5 cm in size) contained no embolic particles larger in their cross-sectional area than the pore size of the filter(40 ㎛). The origins of embolic particulates were mostly from environmental foreign bodies. This may suggest a possible need for more aggressive filtration of smaller particulates than is generally carried out at the present time.

Keywords: arterial line filter, tubing wear, scanning electron microscopy, SEM

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Authors: Ridha Zgolli, Ahmed Belhaj, Maroua Ennouri

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This study presents a new method to predict cavitation area that may be eroded. It is based on the post-treatment of URANS simulations in cavitant flows. The most RANS calculations with incompressible consideration are based on cavitation model using mixture fluid with density (ρm) calculated as a function of liquid density (ρliq), vapour or gas density (ρvap) and vapour or gas volume fraction α (ρm = αρvap + (1-α) ρliq). The calculations are performed on hydrofoil geometries and compared with experimental works concerning flows characteristics (size of pocket, pressure, velocity). We present here the used cavitation model and the approach followed to evaluate the value of α fixing the shape of pocket around wall before collapsing.

Keywords: flows, CFD, cavitation, erosion

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Authors: Mohammad Ghahramani, Fahimeh Saei Manesh

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Winning a soccer game is based on thorough and deep analysis of the ongoing match. On the other hand, giant gambling companies are in vital need of such analysis to reduce their loss against their customers. In this research work, we perform deep, real-time analysis on every soccer match around the world that distinguishes our work from others by focusing on particular seasons, teams and partial analytics. Our contributions are presented in the platform called “Analyst Masters.” First, we introduce various sources of information available for soccer analysis for teams around the world that helped us record live statistical data and information from more than 50,000 soccer matches a year. Our second and main contribution is to introduce our proposed in-play performance evaluation. The third contribution is developing new features from stable soccer matches. The statistics of soccer matches and their odds before and in-play are considered in the image format versus time including the halftime. Local Binary patterns, (LBP) is then employed to extract features from the image. Our analyses reveal incredibly interesting features and rules if a soccer match has reached enough stability. For example, our “8-minute rule” implies if 'Team A' scores a goal and can maintain the result for at least 8 minutes then the match would end in their favor in a stable match. We could also make accurate predictions before the match of scoring less/more than 2.5 goals. We benefit from the Gradient Boosting Trees, GBT, to extract highly related features. Once the features are selected from this pool of data, the Decision trees decide if the match is stable. A stable match is then passed to a post-processing stage to check its properties such as betters’ and punters’ behavior and its statistical data to issue the prediction. The proposed method was trained using 140,000 soccer matches and tested on more than 100,000 samples achieving 98% accuracy to select stable matches. Our database from 240,000 matches shows that one can get over 20% betting profit per month using Analyst Masters. Such consistent profit outperforms human experts and shows the inefficiency of the betting market. Top soccer tipsters achieve 50% accuracy and 8% monthly profit in average only on regional matches. Both our collected database of more than 240,000 soccer matches from 2012 and our algorithm would greatly benefit coaches and punters to get accurate analysis.

Keywords: soccer, analytics, machine learning, database

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Construction projects are complex and often subject to significant cost overruns due to the multifaceted nature of the activities involved. Accurate cost estimation is crucial for effective budget planning and resource allocation. Traditional methods for predicting overruns often rely on expert judgment or analysis of historical data, which can be time-consuming, subjective, and may fail to consider important factors. However, with the increasing availability of data from construction projects, machine learning techniques can be leveraged to improve the accuracy of overrun predictions. This study applied machine learning algorithms to enhance the prediction of cost overruns in a case study of a construction project. The methodology involved the development and evaluation of two machine learning models: Random Forest and Neural Networks. Random Forest can handle high-dimensional data, capture complex relationships, and provide feature importance estimates. Neural Networks, particularly Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), are capable of automatically learning and modeling complex, non-linear relationships between input features and the target variable. These models can adapt to new data, reduce human bias, and uncover hidden patterns in the dataset. The findings of this study demonstrate that both Random Forest and Neural Networks can significantly improve the accuracy of cost overrun predictions compared to traditional methods. The Random Forest model also identified key cost drivers and risk factors, such as changes in the scope of work and delays in material delivery, which can inform better project risk management. However, the study acknowledges several limitations. First, the findings are based on a single construction project, which may limit the generalizability of the results to other projects or contexts. Second, the dataset, although comprehensive, may not capture all relevant factors influencing cost overruns, such as external economic conditions or political factors. Third, the study focuses primarily on cost overruns, while schedule overruns are not explicitly addressed. Future research should explore the application of machine learning techniques to a broader range of projects, incorporate additional data sources, and investigate the prediction of both cost and schedule overruns simultaneously.

Keywords: resource allocation, machine learning, optimization, data-driven decision-making, project management

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Authors: Anita Blagojević

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It is well known that the terrorist attacks on the New York City and Washington, D.C. prompted unprecedented international action to enhance international cooperation in the prevention and suppression of terrorism. In the months (and years) after September 11, the world community focused on two main efforts: first, on efforts to bring those responsible for terrorist attacks to justice, and second, on efforts to prevent future terrorist attacks. In that sense, many governments took advantage of these efforts to strengthen their national security. In that process, however, human rights and civil liberties of certain groups of people were alleged. As a consequence, part of the price paid for protecting national security against terrorist attacks was the threat of infringement on people's fundamental rights and freedoms. The aim of this paper is to analyze the role of the European Union and the Council of Europe in finding the answer to the one of the main security dilemma for the present era: how to find the balance between the protection of national security and guarantee of the people's rights and fundamental freedoms?

Keywords: terrorism, antiterrorism, European Union, Council of Europe, human rights

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Authors: Elisa Coraggio, Dawei Han, Weiru Liu, Theo Tryfonas

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Water is one of the most important resources for human society. The world is currently undergoing a wave of urban growth, and pollution problems are of a great impact. Monitoring water quality is a key task for the future of the environment and human species. In recent times, researchers, using Smart Cities technologies are trying to mitigate the problems generated by the population growth in urban areas. The availability of huge amounts of data collected by a pervasive urban IoT can increase the transparency of decision making. Several services have already been implemented in Smart Cities, but more and more services will be involved in the future. Water quality monitoring can successfully be implemented in the urban IoT. The combination of water quality sensors, cloud computing, smart city infrastructure, and IoT technology can lead to a bright future for environmental monitoring. In the past decades, lots of effort has been put on monitoring and predicting water quality using traditional approaches based on manual collection and laboratory-based analysis, which are slow and laborious. The present study proposes a methodology for implementing a water quality prediction model using artificial intelligence techniques and comparing the results obtained with different algorithms. Furthermore, a 3D numerical model will be created using the software D-Water Quality, and simulation results will be used as a training dataset for the artificial intelligence algorithm. This study derives the methodology and demonstrates its implementation based on information and data collected at the floating harbour in the city of Bristol (UK). The city of Bristol is blessed with the Bristol-Is-Open infrastructure that includes Wi-Fi network and virtual machines. It was also named the UK ’s smartest city in 2017.In recent times, researchers, using Smart Cities technologies are trying to mitigate the problems generated by the population growth in urban areas. The availability of huge amounts of data collected by a pervasive urban IoT can increase the transparency of decision making. Several services have already been implemented in Smart Cities, but more and more services will be involved in the future. Water quality monitoring can successfully be implemented in the urban IoT. The combination of water quality sensors, cloud computing, smart city infrastructure, and IoT technology can lead to a bright future for the environment monitoring. In the past decades, lots of effort has been put on monitoring and predicting water quality using traditional approaches based on manual collection and laboratory-based analysis, which are slow and laborious. The present study proposes a new methodology for implementing a water quality prediction model using artificial intelligence techniques and comparing the results obtained with different algorithms. Furthermore, a 3D numerical model will be created using the software D-Water Quality, and simulation results will be used as a training dataset for the Artificial Intelligence algorithm. This study derives the methodology and demonstrate its implementation based on information and data collected at the floating harbour in the city of Bristol (UK). The city of Bristol is blessed with the Bristol-Is-Open infrastructure that includes Wi-Fi network and virtual machines. It was also named the UK ’s smartest city in 2017.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, hydroinformatics, numerical modelling, smart cities, water quality

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Authors: Ruth Shapira

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Introduction: The rapid urbanization of the last century confronts planners, regulatory bodies, developers and most of all the public with seemingly unsolved conflicts regarding values, capital, and wellbeing of the built and un-built urban space. There is an out of control change of scale of the urban form and of the rhythm of the urban life which has known no significant progress in the last 2-3 decades despite the on-growing urban population. It is the objective of this paper to analyze some of these fundamental issues through the case study of a relatively small town in the center of Israel (Kiryat-Ono, 36,000 inhabitants), unfold the deep structure of qualities versus disruptors, present some cure that we have developed to bridge over and humbly suggest a practice that may bring about a sustainable new urban environment based on timeless values of the past, an approach that can be generic for similar cases. Basic Methodologies:The object, the town of Kiryat Ono, shall be experimented upon in a series of four action processes: De-composition, Re-composition, the Centering process and, finally, Controlled Structural Disintegration. Each stage will be based on facts, analysis of previous multidisciplinary interventions on various layers – and the inevitable reaction of the OBJECT, leading to the conclusion based on innovative theoretical and practical methods that we have developed and that we believe are proper for the open ended network, setting the rules for the contemporary urban society to cluster by – thus – a new urban vocabulary based on the old structure of times passed. The Study: Kiryat Ono, was founded 70 years ago as an agricultural settlement and rapidly turned into an urban entity. In spite the massive intensification, the original DNA of the old small town was still deeply embedded, mostly in the quality of the public space and in the sense of clustered communities. In the past 20 years, the recent demand for housing has been addressed to on the national level with recent master plans and urban regeneration policies mostly encouraging individual economic initiatives. Unfortunately, due to the obsolete existing planning platform the present urban renewal is characterized by pressure of developers, a dramatic change in building scale and widespread disintegration of the existing urban and social tissue.Our office was commissioned to conceptualize two master plans for the two contradictory processes of Kiryat Ono’s future: intensification and conservation. Following a comprehensive investigation into the deep structures and qualities of the existing town, we developed a new vocabulary of conservation terms thus redefying the sense of PLACE. The main challenge was to create master plans that should offer a regulatory basis to the accelerated and sporadic development providing for the public good and preserving the characteristics of the place consisting of a tool box of design guidelines that will have the ability to reorganize space along the time axis in a sustainable way. In conclusion: The system of rules that we have developed can generate endless possible patterns making sure that at each implementation fragment an event is created, and a better place is revealed. It takes time and perseverance but it seems to be the way to provide a healthy and sustainable framework for the accelerated urbanization of our chaotic present.

Keywords: sustainable urban design, intensification, emergent urban patterns, sustainable housing, compact urban neighborhoods, sustainable regeneration, restoration, complexity, uncertainty, need for change, implications of legislation on local planning

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Authors: George Eduful, Ebenezer A. Jackson, Kingsford A. Atanga

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This paper investigates the impacts of cable length and capacity of transformer on ferroresonant overvoltage in cable-fed transformers. The study was conducted by simulation using the EMTP RV. Results show that ferroresonance can cause dangerous overvoltages ranging from 2 to 5 per unit. These overvoltages impose stress on insulations of transformers and cables and subsequently result in system failures. Undertaking Basic Multiple Regression Analysis (BMR) on the results obtained, a statistical model was obtained in terms of cable length and transformer capacity. The model is useful for ferroresonant prediction and control in cable-fed transformers.

Keywords: ferroresonance, cable-fed transformers, EMTP RV, regression analysis

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Authors: Jovana Petrović, Ivana Lončarević, Vesna Tumbas Šaponjac, Biljana Pajin, Danica Zarić

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Pomace, a by-product from fruit processing industry is the potential source of valuable bioactive. Cookies are popular, ready to eat and low price foods; therefore, enrichment of these products is of great importance. In this work, bioactive compounds extracted from cherry pomace, encapsulated in soy and whey proteins, have been incorporated in cookies, replacing 10 (SP10 and WP10) and 15% of wheat flour (SP15 and WP15). Cookie geometry (diameter (D), thickness (T) and spread ratio (D/T)), cookie weight, cookie hardness and cookie surface colour were measured. Sensory characteristics are also examined. The results show that encapsulated cherry pomace bioactives have positively influenced the cookie mass. Diameter, redness (a* value) and cookie hardness increased. Sensory evaluation of cookies, revealed that up to 15% substitution of wheat flour with WP encapsulate produced acceptable cookies similar to the control (100% wheat flour) cookies.

Keywords: cherry pomace, polyphenols, microencapsulation, cookies, physical characteristics

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Authors: Mahesh Kothari, K. D. Gharde

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The ANN and fuzzy logic (FL) models were developed to predict the runoff and sediment yield for catchment of Kal river, India using 21 years (1991 to 2011) rainfall and other hydrological data (evaporation, temperature and streamflow lag by one and two day) and 7 years data for sediment yield modelling. The ANN model performance improved with increasing the input vectors. The fuzzy logic model was performing with R value more than 0.95 during developmental stage and validation stage. The comparatively FL model found to be performing well to ANN in prediction of runoff and sediment yield for Kal river.

Keywords: transferred function, sigmoid, backpropagation, membership function, defuzzification

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Authors: Yoshio Kurosawa, Takao Yamaguchi

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High frequency automotive interior noise above 500 Hz considerably affects automotive passenger comfort. To reduce this noise, sound insulation material is often laminated on body panels or interior trim panels. For a more effective noise reduction, the sound reduction properties of this laminated structure need to be estimated. We have developed a new calculate tool that can roughly calculate the sound absorption and insulation properties of laminate structure and handy for designers. In this report, the outline of this tool and an analysis example applied to floor mat are introduced.

Keywords: automobile, acoustics, porous material, transfer matrix method

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Authors: John Kabuba

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The study investigated the implementation of the Neural Network (NN) techniques for prediction of the loading of Cu ions onto clinoptilolite. The experimental design using analysis of variance (ANOVA) was chosen for testing the adequacy of the Neural Network and for optimizing of the effective input parameters (pH, temperature and initial concentration). Feed forward, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) NN successfully tracked the non-linear behavior of the adsorption process versus the input parameters with mean squared error (MSE), correlation coefficient (R) and minimum squared error (MSRE) of 0.102, 0.998 and 0.004 respectively. The results showed that NN modeling techniques could effectively predict and simulate the highly complex system and non-linear process such as ion-exchange.

Keywords: clinoptilolite, loading, modeling, neural network

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Authors: Seungmin Chee

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This paper investigates which of the two arguments, conservatism or liquidation option, is a true underlying driver of the asymmetric slope coefficient result regarding the association between earnings and returns. The analysis of the relation between earnings and returns in four mutually exclusive settings segmented by ‘profits vs. losses’ and ‘positive returns vs. negative returns’ suggests that liquidation option rather than conservatism is likely to cause the asymmetric slope coefficient result. Furthermore, this paper documents the temporal changes between Basu period (1963-1990) and post-Basu period (1990-2005). Although no significant change in degree of conservatism or value relevance of losses is reported, stronger negative relation between losses and positive returns is observed in the post-Basu period. Separate regression analysis of each quintile based on the rankings of price to sales ratio and book to market ratio suggests that the strong negative relation is driven by growth firms.

Keywords: conservatism, earnings, liquidation option, returns

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Authors: Yagya Murti Aryal, Bipin Adhikari, Pradeep Gyawali

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The Lesser Himalaya zone of Nepal consists of thrusting and folding belts, which play an important role in the sustainable management of groundwater in the Himalayan regions. The study area is located in the Dolakha and Ramechhap Districts of Bagmati Province, Nepal. Geologically, these districts are situated in the Lesser Himalayas and partly encompass the Higher Himalayan rock sequence, which includes low-grade to high-grade metamorphic rocks. Following the Gorkha Earthquake in 2015, numerous springs dried up, and many others are currently experiencing depletion due to the distortion of the natural groundwater flow. The primary objective of this study is to identify potential groundwater areas and determine suitable sites for artificial groundwater recharge. Two distinct statistical approaches were used to develop models: The Frequency Ratio (FR) and Shannon Entropy (SE) methods. The study utilized both primary and secondary datasets and incorporated significant role and controlling factors derived from field works and literature reviews. Field data collection involved spring inventory, soil analysis, lithology assessment, and hydro-geomorphology study. Additionally, slope, aspect, drainage density, and lineament density were extracted from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using GIS and transformed into thematic layers. For training and validation, 114 springs were divided into a 70/30 ratio, with an equal number of non-spring pixels. After assigning weights to each class based on the two proposed models, a groundwater potential map was generated using GIS, classifying the area into five levels: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The model's outcome reveals that over 41% of the area falls into the low and very low potential categories, while only 30% of the area demonstrates a high probability of groundwater potential. To evaluate model performance, accuracy was assessed using the Area under the Curve (AUC). The success rate AUC values for the FR and SE methods were determined to be 78.73% and 77.09%, respectively. Additionally, the prediction rate AUC values for the FR and SE methods were calculated as 76.31% and 74.08%. The results indicate that the FR model exhibits greater prediction capability compared to the SE model in this case study.

Keywords: groundwater potential mapping, frequency ratio, Shannon’s Entropy, Lesser Himalaya Zone, sustainable groundwater management

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Authors: Monette S. De Castro, Veneranda A. Magpantay, Christine B. Adiova, Mark D. Arboleda

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One-hundred-layer chicken farmers were randomly selected and interviewed using structured questionnaires to assess the production system and management practices in layer chicken farms. The respondents belonged to the commercial scale operation. Results showed that the predominant rearing and housing systems were intensive/complete confinement and open-sided, while slatted was the common type of flooring used during the brood-grow period. Dekalb and Lohmann were the common chicken layer strains reared by farmers. The majority of commercial chicken layer farms preferred ready-to-lay (RTL) pullets as their replacement stocks. Selling was the easiest way for farmers to dispose of and utilize poultry manure, while veterinary waste and mortality were disposed of in pits. Biosecurity practices employed by the farmers conformed with the ASEAN Biosecurity Management Manual for Commercial Poultry Farming. Flies and odor were the major problems in most layer farms that are associated with their farm wastes. Therefore, the application of new technologies and husbandry practices through training and actual demonstrations could be implemented to further improve the layer chicken raising in the province.

Keywords: layer chicken farms, marketing, production system, waste management

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Authors: Zan Azma Nasruddin, Irwan Mazlin, Nor Aziah Daud, Fauziah Redzuan, Fariza Hanis Abdul Razak

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This paper focuses on a machine learning that learn the correct pronunciation of Makhraj Huroofs. Usually, people need to find an expert to pronounce the Huroof accurately. In this study, the researchers have developed a system that is able to learn the selected Huroofs which are ha, tsa, zho, and dza using the Convolutional Neural Network. The researchers present the chosen type of the CNN architecture to make the system that is able to learn the data (Huroofs) as quick as possible and produces high accuracy during the prediction. The researchers have experimented the system to measure the accuracy and the cross entropy in the training process.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, Makhraj recognition, speech recognition, signal processing, tensorflow

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Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

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This paper presents a study about a nonparametric regression model consisting of a smoothing spline method and a penalized spline regression method. We also compare the techniques used for estimation and prediction of nonparametric regression model. We tried both methods with crude oil prices in dollars per barrel and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index. According to the results, it is concluded that smoothing spline method performs better than that of penalized spline regression method.

Keywords: nonparametric regression model, penalized spline regression method, smoothing spline method, Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)

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Authors: Laurence Picard, André Bégin-Drolet, Pierre Blanchet

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The prefabricated construction industry has been operating in North America for several years now and differs from traditional construction by its much shorter project timelines, lower costs, and increased build quality. Faced with the global housing crisis, prefabrication should be the first choice for erecting buildings quickly and at a low cost. However, the reality is quite different; manufacturers focus their operations mainly on single-home construction. This is explained by the lack of a suitable and efficient assembly solution for erecting large-scale buildings. Indeed, it is difficult to maintain the coveted advantages of prefabrication with a laborious on-site assembly and a colossal load of additional operations such as the installation of fasteners and the internal finishing. In the desire to maximize the benefits of prefabrication and make it a smart choice even for large buildings, an automated connection solution is developed. The plug-in self-locking device was developed accordingly to the product design phases: on-site observations, the definition of the problem and product requirements, solution generation, prototyping, fabricating and testing.

Keywords: assembly solution, automation, construction productivity, modular connection, modular buildings, plug-in device, self-lock mechanism

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Authors: H. Hosseini, B. V. Berdyshev, I. Iskopintsev

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This paper presents a rheological model for producing shape-memory thermoplastic polymers. Shape-memory occurs as a result of internal rearrangement of the structural elements of a polymer. A non-linear viscoelastic model was developed that allows qualitative and quantitative prediction of the stress-strain behavior of shape-memory polymers during heating. This research was done to develop a technique to determine the maximum possible change in size of heat-shrinkable products during heating. The rheological model used in this work was particularly suitable for defining process parameters and constructive parameters of the processing equipment.

Keywords: elastic deformation, heating, shape-memory polymers, stress-strain behavior, viscoelastic model

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Authors: Ethan Petersen

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In this paper, we analyze the volatility of Apple’s stock beginning January 3, 2005 up to October 9, 2014, then focus on a range from 30 days prior to each product announcement until 30 days after. Product announcements are filtered; announcements whose 60 day range is devoid of other events are separated. This filtration is chosen to isolate, and study, a potential cross-effect. Concerning Apple keynotes, there are two significant dates: the day the invitations to the event are received and the day of the event itself. As such, the statistical analysis is conducted for both invite-centered and event-centered time frames. A comparison to the VIX is made to determine if the trend is simply following the market or deviating. Regardless of the filtration, we find that there is a clear deviation from the market. Comparing these data sets, there are significantly different trends: isolated events have a constantly decreasing, erratic trend in volatility but an increasing, linear trend is observed for clustered events. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, we would expect a change when new information is publicly known and the results of this study support this claim.

Keywords: efficient market hypothesis, event study, volatility, VIX

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Eugene Muambeh Muntoh

Abstract:

Corruption has a destructive effect on State institutions and on the capacity of States to respect, protect and fulfil human rights, particularly of those persons and groups in situation of vulnerability and marginalization. In Cameroon, corruption pose a major challenge as it divert public revenues and cripple public budgets that should provide healthcare, housing, education, and other essential services. Corruption has undermined the States’ ability to meet the minimum core obligations and pre-existing legal obligations to maximize all available resources to respect, protect and fulfil Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. This study therefore makes use of the qualitative research design, ranging from interviews, observations and content analysis of vital documents to provide evidence and associations between corruption and human rights concerns in Cameroon. The study made use of research material from both primary and secondary sources. Findings from the study reveals that the impact of corruption in Cameroon is especially pronounced regarding economic, social and cultural rights. In most cases, the right to be treated equally is violated, for example, when someone is requested to pay a bribe to obtain a public service. There is an urgent need for sustainable measures to counter corruption in order to protect and promote human rights.

Keywords: corruption, governance, human rights, law

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: U. Chattaraj, K. Dhusiya, M. Raviteja

Abstract:

Perception reaction time of drivers is an outcome of human thought process, which is vague and approximate in nature and also varies from driver to driver. So, in this study a fuzzy logic based model for prediction of the same has been presented, which seems suitable. The control factors, like, age, experience, intensity of driving of the driver, speed of the vehicle and distance of stimulus have been considered as premise variables in the model, in which the perception reaction time is the consequence variable. Results show that the model is able to explain the impacts of the control factors on perception reaction time properly.

Keywords: driver, fuzzy logic, perception reaction time, premise variable

Procedia PDF Downloads 282