Search results for: market risk

Authors: N. Borjalilu, P. Rabiei, A. Enjoo

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Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) program assists an operator in aviation industries to identify, quantify, assess and address operational safety risks, in order to improve safety of flight operations. FDM is a powerful tool for an aircraft operator integrated into the operator’s Safety Management System (SMS), allowing to detect, confirm, and assess safety issues and to check the effectiveness of corrective actions, associated with human errors. This article proposes a model for safety risk assessment level of flight data in a different aspect of event focus based on fuzzy set values. It permits to evaluate the operational safety level from the point of view of flight activities. The main advantages of this method are proposed qualitative safety analysis of flight data. This research applies the opinions of the aviation experts through a number of questionnaires Related to flight data in four categories of occurrence that can take place during an accident or an incident such as: Runway Excursions (RE), Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), Mid-Air Collision (MAC), Loss of Control in Flight (LOC-I). By weighting each one (by F-TOPSIS) and applying it to the number of risks of the event, the safety risk of each related events can be obtained.

Keywords: F-topsis, fuzzy set, flight data monitoring (FDM), flight safety

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Authors: Maria Angela Bedini, Fabio Bronzini

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The risk of natural disasters affects all the countries of the world, whether it refers to seismic events or tsunamis or hydrogeological disasters. In most cases, the risk can be considered in its three components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability (and urban vulnerability). The aim of this paper is to evaluate how the Italian scientific community has related the contribution of these three components, superimposing the three different maps that summarize the fundamental structure of the risk. Based on the three components considered, the study applies the Regional Planning methodology on the three phases of the risk protection and mitigation process: the prevention phase, the emergency intervention phase, the post-disaster phase. The paper illustrates the Italian experience of the pre-during-post-earthquake intervention. Main results: The study deepens these aspects in the belief that “a historical center” and an “island” can present similar problems at the international level, both in the phase of prevention (earthquake, tsunamis, hydrogeological disasters), in emergency phase (protocols and procedures of intervention) and in the post-disaster phase. The conclusions of the research identify the need to plan in advance how to deal with the post-disaster phase and consider it a priority with respect to the simple reconstruction of destroyed buildings. In fact the main result of the post-disaster intervention must be the return and the social and economic support of the indigenous population, and not only the construction of new housing and equipment. In this sense, the results of the research show that the elderly inhabitants of a historic center can be compared to the indigenous population of an atoll of fishermen, as both constitute the most important resource: the human resource. Their return in conditions of security testifies, with their presence, the culture, customs, and values rooted in the history of a people.

Keywords: post-disaster interventions, risk of natural disasters in Italy and abroad, seismic events in Italy, social and economic protection and support for the native population of historical centers

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Authors: José Batista de Souza Neto

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This research project has as its theme the implementation of public policies to support micro and small businesses (MSEs). The research problem defined was how public policies for access to markets that drive the entrepreneurial ecosystem of MSEs are implemented. The general objective of this research is to understand the process of implementing a public policy to support the entrepreneurial ecosystem of MSEs by the Support Service for Micro and Small Enterprises of the State of São Paulo (SEBRAESP). Public policies are constituent elements of entrepreneurship ecosystems that influence the creation and development of ventures from the action of the entrepreneur. At the end of the research, it is expected to achieve the results for the following specific objectives: (a) understand how the entrepreneurial ecosystem of MSEs is constituted; (b) understand how market access public policies for MSEs are designed and implemented; (c) understand SEBRAE's role in the entrepreneurship ecosystem; and (d) offer an action plan and monitor its execution up to march, 2023. The field research will be conducted based on Action Research, with a qualitative and longitudinal approach to the data. Data collection will be based on narratives produced since 2019 when the decision to implement Comércio Brasil program, a public policy focused on generating market access for 4280 MSEs yearly, was made. The narratives will be analyzed by the method of document analysis and narrative analysis. It is expected that the research will consolidate the relevance of public policies to market access for MSEs and the role of SEBRAE as a protagonist in the implementation of these public policies in the entrepreneurship ecosystem will be demonstrated. Action research is recognized as an intervention method, it is expected that this research will corroborate its role in supporting management processes.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, entrepreneurship ecosystem, public policies, SEBRAE, action research

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Authors: Dejana Bouillet, Vlatka Domović

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Both policymakers and researchers recognize that participating in early childhood education and care (ECEC) is useful for all children, especially for those who are exposed to the high risk of social exclusion. Social exclusion of children is understood as a multidimensional construct including economic, social, cultural, health, and other aspects of disadvantage and deprivation, which individually or combined can have an unfavorable effect on the current life and development of a child, as well as on the child’s development and on disadvantaged life chances in adult life. ECEC institutions should be able to promote educational approaches that portray developmental, cultural, language, and other diversity amongst children. However, little is known about the ways in which Croatian ECEC institutions recognize and respect the diversity of children and their families and how they respond to their educational needs. That is why this paper is dedicated to the analysis of the capacities of ECEC professionals to respond to the demands of educational needs of this very diverse group of children and their families. The results obtained in the frame of the project “Models of response to educational needs of children at risk of social exclusion in ECEC institutions,” funded by the Croatian Science Foundation, will be presented. The research methodology arises from explanations of educational processes and risks of social exclusion as a complex and heterogeneous phenomenon. The preliminary results of the qualitative data analysis of educational practices regarding capacities to identify and appropriately respond to the requirements of children at risk of social exclusion will be presented. The data have been collected by interviewing educational staff in 10 Croatian ECEC institutions (n = 10). The questions in the interviews were related to various aspects of inclusive institutional policy, culture, and practices. According to the analysis, it is possible to conclude that Croatian ECEC professionals are still faced with great challenges in the process of implementation of inclusive policies, culture, and practices. There are several baselines of this conclusion. The interviewed educational professionals are not familiar enough with the whole complexity and diversity of needs of children at risk of social exclusion, and the ECEC institutions do not have enough resources to provide all interventions that these children and their families need.

Keywords: children at risk of social exclusion, ECEC professionals, inclusive policies, culture and practices, quallitative analysis

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Authors: Upal Barua

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Crash risk at intersections is a critical safety issue. This paper examines the effectiveness of removing an existing off-set at an intersection by realignment, in reducing crashes. Empirical Bayes method was applied to conduct a before-and-after study to assess the effect of this safety improvement. The Transportation Safety Improvement Program in Austin Transportation Department completed several safety improvement projects at high crash intersections with a view to reducing crashes. One of the common safety improvement techniques applied was the realignment of intersection approaches removing an existing off-set. This paper illustrates how this safety improvement technique is applied at a high crash intersection from inception to completion. This paper also highlights the significant crash reductions achieved from this safety improvement technique applying Empirical Bayes method in a before-and-after study. The result showed that realignment of intersection approaches removing an existing off-set can reduce crashes by 53%. This paper also features the state of the art techniques applied in planning, engineering, designing and construction of this safety improvement, key factors driving the success, and lessons learned in the process.

Keywords: crash risk, intersection, off-set, safety improvement technique, before-and-after study, empirical Bayes method

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Authors: Norbert W. Paul

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In 1988, parts of the scientific community still heralded findings to support that AIDS was likely to remain largely a ‘gay disease’. The value-ladden terminology of some of the articles suggested that rectum and fragile urethra are not sufficiently robust to provide a barrier against infectious fluids, especially body fluids contaminated with HIV while the female vagina, would provide natural protection against injuries and trauma facilitating HIV-infection. Anal sexual intercourse was constituted not only as dangerous but also as unnatural practice, while penile-vaginal intercourse would follow natural design and thus be relatively safe practice minimizing the risk of HIV. Statements like the latter were not uncommon in the early times of HIV/AIDS and contributed to captious certainties and an underestimation of heterosexual risks. Pseudo-scientific discourses on the origin of HIV were linked to local and global health politics in the 1980ies. The pathways of infection were related to normative concepts like deviant, subcultural behavior, cultural otherness, and guilt used to target, tag and separate specific groups at risk from the ‘normal’ population. Controlling populations at risk became the top item on the agenda rather than controlling modes of transmission and the virus. Hence, the Thai strategy to cope with HIV/AIDS by acknowledging social and sexual practices as they were – not as they were imagined – has become a role model for successful prevention in the highly scandalized realm of sexually transmitted disease. By accepting the globalized character of local HIV-risk and projecting the risk onto populations which are neither particularly vocal groups nor vested with the means to strive for health and justice Thailand managed to culturally implement knowledge-based tools of prevention. This paper argues, that pertinent cultural collisions regarding our strategies to cope with HIV/AIDS are deeply rooted in misconceptions, misreadings and scandalizations brought about in the early history of HIV in the 1980ties. The Thai strategy is used to demonstrate how local values can be balanced against globalized health risk and used to effectuated prevention by which knowledge and norms are translated into local practices. Issues of global health and injustice will be addressed in the final part of the paper dealing with the achievability of health as a human right.

Keywords: bioethics, HIV, global health, justice

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Authors: P. Nayak, Shakeel Shaikh

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In this paper, we analyse the apparel export performance of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the world market. The study covers the 2003-2012 period at the sector as well as product levels (6 digit HS) and analysis is based HS 2002 nomenclature. We measure export similarity among Southeast Asian nations for the apparel sector (two digit HS-61 & 62), besides analysing the products performance in the world through Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) technique. Coupled with RCA, the price as a factor of competitiveness was examined from the available Unit Value Realizations (UVR). Further to this, the resource availability or outsourced from the region was considered as an extension to the analysis of competitiveness between the nations. With the help of these methodologies, we examine the degree of competition between the exports of southeast nations in the world market. Our results show that Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam are well performing states within ASEAN. The paper further delves into sustainability of the export performing countries within ASEAN.

Keywords: export competitiveness, export similarity index, revealed comparative advantage, unit value realisation

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Authors: Samir Srairi

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This paper investigates the impact of the internal corporate governance on bank performance by constructing a corporate governance index (CGI) for 27 Islamic banks operating in five Arab Gulf countries. Using content analysis on the banks’ annual reports for 3 years (2011-2013), the index construction uses information on six important corporate governance mechanisms, namely board structure, risk management, transparency and disclosure, audit committee, Sharia supervisory board and investment account holders. The results demonstrate that Islamic banks adhere to 54% of the attributes addressed in the CGI. The most frequently reported and disclosed elements are Sharia supervisory board followed by board structure and risk management. The findings related to countries revealed that only two countries, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, possess a higher level of CGI. Our regression results provide evidence that Islamic banks with higher levels of corporate governance report high operating performance measured by return on assets and net interest margin. Finally, as of the effect of internal and external factors, we identified four variables that were associated with bank performance, namely size, equity, risk and concentration.

Keywords: governance mechanisms, corporate governance index, bank performance, Islamic banks, GCC countries

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Authors: Nuzhat Sultana

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Iron deficiency (IDA) is the commonest nutritional anemia present in Indian pregnant women. The overall development of a fetus is determined to a great extent by the type of nourishment mother receives right from its conception. To study the risk factors of iron deficiency anemia, two hundred rural pregnant women in the age of 15-35 years in the second trimester of pregnancy from the countryside of Beed district was selected. These samples were divided into groups 'A' (experimental samples) and 'C' (control samples). Experimental samples were received oral supplementation of iron and folic acid for ninety days, but control samples did not receive any supplementation. All the samples were observed anthropometrically, biochemically and clinically before and after supplementation. The study result shows that maximum numbers of i.e. 75% pregnant women had low levels of weight and hemoglobin as compared to standard weight and HB level. However, after supplementation only in experimental group weight and HB level was increased. It was observed that prevalence of risk factors associated with anemia was higher in rural pregnant women. Poverty, illiteracy, faulty food habits, and poor intake of iron during pregnancy are the main causative factors for iron deficiency anemia in rural pregnant women.

Keywords: iron deficiency, anemia, risk factors, pregnancy

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Authors: Netta Horesh Reinman

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The inability to communicate feelings and thoughts to people close to oneself may be an important risk factor for suicidal behavior. This inability has been operationalized in the concept of “self-disclosure.” The purpose of this paper was to evaluate the correlation of self-disclosure with suicidal behavior in adolescents. Eighty consecutive admissions to an adolescent psychiatric inpatient unit were evaluated. Thirty-four were suicide attempters, 18 were suicidal ideators, and 18 were non-suicidal. Assessment measures included the Child Suicide Potential Scale, the Suicide Intent Scale, the Suicide Ideation Scale, and the Self-Disclosure Scale. The results show that low self-disclosure levels are associated with suicidal thinking, suicide attempts and suicidal attitudes. Thus, low self-disclosure may well be a risk factor worthy of further evaluation in the attempt to understand adolescent suicidal behavior.

Keywords: self disclosure, suicide, adolescents, treatment

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Authors: Syed Dawood M. Taimur

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Background: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is under diagnosed in primary care practices, yet the extent of unrecognized PAD in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is unknown. Objective: To assess the prevalence of previously unrecognized PAD in patients undergoing coronary angiogram and to determine the relationship between the presence of PAD and severity of CAD. Material & Methods: This five years retrospective study was conducted at an invasive lab of the department of Cardiology, Ibrahim Cardiac Hospital & Research Institute from January 2010 to December 2014. Total 77 patients were included in this study. Study variables were age, sex, risk factors like hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia, smoking habit and positive family history for ischemic heart disease, coronary artery and peripheral artery profile. Results: Mean age was 56.83±13.64 years, Male mean age was 53.98±15.08 years and female mean age was 54.5±1.73years. Hypertension was detected in 55.8%, diabetes in 87%, dyslipidaemia in 81.8%, smoking habits in 79.2% and 58.4% had a positive family history. After catheterization 88.3% had peripheral arterial disease and 71.4% had coronary artery disease. Out of 77 patients, 52 had both coronary and peripheral arterial disease which was statistically significant (p < .014). Coronary angiogram revealed 28.6% (22) patients had triple vessel disease, 23.3% (18) had single vessel disease, 19.5% (15) had double vessel disease and 28.6% (22) were normal coronary arteries. The peripheral angiogram revealed 54.5% had superficial femoral artery disease, 26% had anterior tibial artery disease, 27.3% had posterior tibial artery disease, 20.8% had common iliac artery disease, 15.6% had common femoral artery disease and 2.6% had renal artery disease. Conclusion: There is a strong and definite correlation between coronary and peripheral arterial disease. We found that cardiovascular risk factors were in fact risk factors for both PAD and CAD.

Keywords: coronary artery disease (CAD), peripheral artery disease(PVD), risk, factors, correlation, cathetarization

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Authors: Narash Narasimman, Calvin Leong Jia Jun, Raksha Karthik, Paul Englert

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Background: Project Grit, a 12-week youth resilience program implemented by Impart and Spartans Boxing Club, aimed to help at-risk adolescents develop resilience through psychoeducation and mental health techniques for dealing with everyday stressors and adversity. The programme consists of two parts-1.5 hours of group therapy followed by 1 hour of boxing. Due to the novelty of the study, 6 male participants, aged 13 to 18, were recruited to participate in the study. Aim: This case study aims to examine the effectiveness of Project Grit in building resilience among at-risk adolescents. Methods: A case study design was employed to capture the complexity and uniqueness of the intervention, without oversimplifying or generalizing it. A 15-year-old male participant with a history of behavioural challenges, delinquency and gang involvement was selected for the study. Teacher, parent and child versions of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) were administered to the facilitators, parents and participants respectively before and after the programme. Relevant themes from the qualitative interviews will be discussed. Results: Scores from all raters revealed improvements in most domains of the SDQ. Total difficulties scores across all raters improved from “very high” to “close to average”. High interrater reliability was observed (κ= .81). The participant reported learning methods to effectively deal with his everyday concerns using healthy coping strategies, developing a supportive social network, and building on his self efficacy. Themes from the subject’s report concurred with the improvement in SDQ scores. Conclusions: The findings suggest that Project Grit is a promising intervention for promoting resilience among at-risk adolescents. The teleological behaviourism framework and the combination of sports engagement and future orientation may be particularly effective in fostering resilience among this population. Further studies need to be conducted with a larger sample size to further validate the effectiveness of Project Grit.

Keywords: resilience, project grit, adolescents, at-risk, boxing, future orientation

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Authors: Dianis Wulan Sari, Takeo Minematsu, Mikako Yoshida, Hiromi Sanada

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Introduction: Pruritus is diagnosed as itching without macroscopic abnormalities on skin. It is the most skin complaint of elderly people. In the present study, we conducted a dermatological study to examine the risk factors of pruritic skin and predicted how to prevent pruritus especially in the elderly population. Pruritus is caused several types of inflammation, including epidermal innate immunity based on keratinocyte responses and acquired immunity regulated by type 1 or 2 helper T (Th) cells. The triggers of pruritus differ among inflammation types, therefore we did separately assess the pruritus-associated factors of each inflammation type in an effort to contribute to the identification of intervention targets for preventing pruritus. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the factors related with actual condition of pruritic skin by examine the skin properties. Method: This study was conducted in elderly population of Indonesian nursing home. Basic characteristics and behaviors were obtained by interview. The properties of pruritic skin were collected by examination of skin biomarker using skin blotting as novel method of non-invasive skin assessment method and examination of skin barrier function using stratum corneum hydration and skin pH. Result: The average age of participants was 74 years with independent status was 66.8%. Age (β = -0.130, p = 0.044), cumulative lifetime sun exposure (β = 0.145, p = 0.026), bathing duration (β = 0.151, p = 0.022), clothing change frequency (β = 0.135, p = 0.029), and clothing type (β = -0.139, p = 0.021) were risk factors of pruritic skin in multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Risk factors of pruritic skin in elderly population were caused by internal factors such as skin senescence and external factors such as sun exposure, hygiene care and skin care behavior.

Keywords: aging, hygiene care, pruritus, skin care, sun exposure

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Authors: Mushtaq Ahmad, Bashir Rahman, Taqweem-ul-Haq, Fazal Jalil, Aftab Ali Shah

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Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes coding for microRNAs (miRNAs) play a pivotal role in the progression of breast cancer (BC). We investigated the association of miR-146a rs2910164 G/C polymorphism with the risk of BC in the Pakistani population. The miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism was genotyped in 300 BC-cases and 300 age- and gender-matched healthy controls using T-ARMS-PCR. Genotype and allele frequencies were calculated, and the association between genotypes and the risk of BC was calculated by odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (95%). A significant difference in genotypic frequencies (χ2=63.10; p ≤ 0.0001) and allelic frequencies (OR=0.3955 (0.3132-0.4993); p ≤ 0.0001) was observed between cases and controls. Furthermore, we also found that miR-146 rs2910164 CC homozygote increased the risk of breast cancer in the dominant (OR=0.2397 (0.1629-0.3526); p=0.0001; GG vs GC+CC) and recessive (OR=2.803 (1.865- 4.213); P ≤ 0.0001; CC vs GC+GG) inheritance models. In summary, miR-146a rs2910164 G/C is significantly associated with BC in the Pakistani population. To our knowledge, this is the first study that assessed MIR146a rs2910164 G > C SNP in Pakistani population. By analyzing the secondary structure of MIR146A variant, a significant structural modification was noted. Study with a larger sample size is needed to further confirm these findings.

Keywords: breast cancer, MIR146A, microRNA, SNP

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Authors: András Medve, Katalin Szabad, István Patkó

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According to the International Energy Association the previous principles of the energy sector should be reassessed, in which renewable energy sources have a significant role. We might witness the exchange of roles of countries from importer to exporter, which look for the main resources of market needs. According to the World Energy Outlook 2013, the duration of high oil prices is exceptionally long in the history of the energy market. Forecasts also point at the expected great differences between the regional prices of gas and electric energy. The energy need of the world will grow by its third. two thirds of which will appear in China, India, and South-East Asia, while only 4 per cent of which will be related to OECD countries. Current trends also forecast the growth of the price of energy sources and the emission of glasshouse gases. As a reflection of these forecasts alternative energy sources will gain value, of which geothermic energy is one of the cheapest and most economical. Hungary possesses outstanding resources of geothermic energy. The aim of the study is to research the environmental effects of geothermic energy and the opportunities of its exploitation in Hungary, related to „Horizon 2020” project.

Keywords: sustainable energy, renewable energy, development of geothermic energy in Hungary

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Authors: Despina Yiakoumi, Agathe Rouaix

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Laboratory experiments were run to investigate the impact of different design characteristics of the auctions, which have been implemented to procure capacity in the UK’s reformed electricity markets. The experiment studies competition among bidders in procurement multi-unit discrete descending clock auctions under different feedback policies and pricing rules. Theory indicates that feedback policy in combination with the two common pricing rules; last-accepted bid (LAB) and first-rejected bid (FRB), could affect significantly the auction outcome. Two information feedback policies regarding the bidding prices of the participants are considered; with feedback and without feedback. With feedback, after each round participants are informed of the number of items still in the auction and without feedback, after each round participants have no information about the aggregate supply. Under LAB, winning bidders receive the amount of the highest successful bid and under the FRB the winning bidders receive the lowest unsuccessful bid. Based on the theoretical predictions of the alternative auction designs, it was decided to run three treatments. First treatment considers LAB with feedback; second treatment studies LAB without feedback; third treatment investigates FRB without feedback. Theoretical predictions of the game showed that under FRB, the alternative feedback policies are indifferent to the auction outcome. Preliminary results indicate that LAB with feedback and FRB without feedback achieve on average higher clearing prices in comparison to the LAB treatment without feedback. However, the clearing prices under LAB with feedback and FRB without feedback are on average lower compared to the theoretical predictions. Although under LAB without feedback theory predicts the clearing price will drop to the competitive equilibrium, experimental results indicate that participants could still engage in cooperative behavior and drive up the price of the auction. It is showed, both theoretically and experimentally, that the pricing rules and the feedback policy, affect the bidding competitiveness of the auction by providing opportunities to participants to engage in cooperative behavior and exercise market power. LAB without feedback seems to be less vulnerable to market power opportunities compared to the alternative auction designs. This could be an argument for the use of LAB pricing rule in combination with limited feedback in the UK capacity market in an attempt to improve affordability for consumers.

Keywords: descending clock auctions, experiments, feedback policy, market design, multi-unit auctions, pricing rules, procurement auctions

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Authors: Sahar Jami, Iman Valizadeh

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Today banks not only should seek for new customers but also should consider previous maintenance and retention and establish a stable relationship with them. In this term, relationship-manner marketing seeks to make, maintain, and promote the relationship between customers and other stakeholders in benefits to fulfill all involved parties. This fact is possible just by interactive transaction and promises fulfillment. According to the importance of relationship-manner marketing in banks, making context to make relationship-manner marketing has high importance. Therefore, the present study aims at exploring intention condition to relationship-manner marketing in Iran Province Iran Limited bank, and also prioritizing its variables using hierarchical analysis (AHP). There is questionnaire designed in this research to paired comparison of relationship-manner marketing elements. After distributing this questionnaire among statistical society members who are 20 of Iran Limited bank experts, data analysis has been done by Expert Choice software.

Keywords: relationship marketing, relationship market orientation, Saderat Bank of Iran, hierarchical analysis

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Authors: Didier Birimwiragi Namogo

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The Kivu Lake Basin is located in the Western Branch of the East African Rift. In this basin is located a multitude of active faults, on which earthquakes occur regularly. The most recent earthquakes date from 2008, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019. The cities of Bukabu and Goma in DR Congo and Giseyi in Rwanda are the most impacted by this intense seismic activity in the region. The magnitude of the strongest earthquakes in the region is 6.1. The 2008 earthquake was particularly destructive, killing several people in DR Congo and Rwanda. This work aims to complete the distribution of seismicity in the region, deduce areas of weakness and establish a hazard map that can assist in seismic risk management. Using the local seismic network of the Goma Volcano Observatory, the earthquakes were relocated, and their focus mechanism was studied. The results show that most of these earthquakes occur on active faults described by Villeneuve in 1938. The alignment of the earthquakes shows a pace that follows directly the directions of the faults described by this author. The study of the focus mechanism of these earthquakes, also shows that these are in particular normal faults whose stresses show an extensive activity. Such study can be used for the establishment of seismic risk management tools.

Keywords: earthquakes, hazard map, faults, focus mechanism

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second –95,3%.

Keywords: bass model, generalized bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States

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Authors: A. Hol

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Even in the well developed countries like Australia, Small to Medium Farmers do not often have the power over the market prices as they are more often than not set by the farming agents. This in turn creates problems as farmers only get to know for how much their produce has been sold for by the agents three to four weeks after the sale has taken the place. To see and identify if and how peri-urban Sydney farmers could be assisted, carefully selected group of peri-urban Sydney farmers of the stone fruit has been interviewed. Following the case based interviews collected data was analyzed in detail using the Scenario Based Transformation principles. Analyzed data was then used to create a most common transformation case. The case identified that a mobile web based system could be develop so that framers can monitor agent earnings and in turn gain more power over the markets. It is expected that after the system has been in action for six months to a year, farmers will become empowered and they will gain means to monitor the market and negotiate agent prices.

Keywords: mobile applications, farming, scenario-based analysis, scenario-based transformation, user empowerment

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Authors: Leonard Simoni, Ilir Alimehmeti, Ervina Shirka, Endri Hasimi, Ndricim Kallashi, Verona Beka, Suerta Kabili, Artan Goda

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Background: Diabetes Mellitus type 2, small vessel calibre, stented length of vessel, complex lesion morphology, and prior bypass surgery have resulted risk factors for In-Stent Restenosis (ISR). However, there are some contradictory results about body mass index (BMI) as a risk factor for ISR. Purpose: We want to identify clinical, lesional and procedural factors that can predict clinical ISR in our patients. Methods: Were enrolled 759 patients who underwent first-time elective PCI with Bare Metal Stents (BMS) from September 2011 to December 2013 in our Department of Cardiology and followed them for at least 1.5 years with a median of 862 days (2 years and 4 months). Only the patients re-admitted with ischemic heart disease underwent control coronary angiography but no routine angiographic control was performed. Patients were categorized in ISR and non-ISR groups and compared between them. Multivariate analysis - Binary Logistic Regression: Forward Conditional Method was used to identify independent predictive risk factors. P was considered statistically significant when <0.05. Results: ISR compared to non-ISR individuals had a significantly lower BMI (25.7±3.3 vs. 26.9±3.7, p=0.004), higher risk anatomy (LM + 3-vessel CAD) (23% vs. 14%, p=0.03), higher number of stents/person used (2.1±1.1 vs. 1.75±0.96, p=0.004), greater length of stents/person used (39.3±21.6 vs. 33.3±18.5, p=0.01), and a lower use of clopidogrel and ASA (together) (95% vs. 99%, p=0.012). They also had a higher, although not statistically significant, prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus (42% vs. 32%, p=0.072) and a greater number of treated vessels (1.36±0.5 vs. 1.26±0.5, p=0.08). In the multivariate analysis, Diabetes Mellitus type 2 and multiple stents used were independent predictors risk factors for In-Stent Restenosis, OR 1.66 [1.03-2.68], p=0.039, and OR 1.44 [1.16-1.78,] p=0.001, respectively. On the other side higher BMI and use of clopidogrel and ASA together resulted protective factors OR 0.88 [0.81-0.95], p=0.001 and OR 0.2 [0.06-0.72] p=0.013, respectively. Conclusion: Diabetes Mellitus and multiple stents are strong predictive risk factors, whereas the use of clopidogrel and ASA together are protective factors for clinical In-Stent Restenosis. Paradoxically High BMI is a protective factor for In-stent Restenosis, probably related to a larger diameter of vessels and consequently a larger diameter of stents implanted in these patients. Further studies are needed to clarify this finding.

Keywords: body mass index, diabetes mellitus, in-stent restenosis, percutaneous coronary intervention

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Authors: S. Alireza Mirghasemi, Shervin Rashidinia, Mohammad Saleh Sadeghi, Mohsen Talebizadeh, Narges Rahimi Gabaran, Seyed Shahin Eftekhari, Sara Shahmoradi

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Avascular necrosis of femoral head is a pathologic condition that the main cause is decreased blood supply of femoral head. Among predisposing risk factors, chronic use of corticosteroids, alcoholism, smocking and hip traumas have more important role. Also we can mention OCP consumption as a risk factor among less common predisposing factors that lead to AVNF, in this study we introduce another cause of AVNF with a period of treatment with moderate dose of corticosteroids accompanied by OCP as a probable facilitating factor that leads to AVNF.

Keywords: AVN, corticosteroids consumption, femoral head osteonecrosis, OCP

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Authors: Adjebli Ahmed, Messis Abdelaziz, Ayeche Riad, Tighilet Karim, Talbi Melissa, Smaili Yanis, Lehri Mokrane, Louardiane Mustapha

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Colorectal cancer is one of the most common types of cancer worldwide, and its incidence has been increasing in recent years. Data and fecal samples from colorectal cancer patients were collected at the Amizour Public Hospital's oncology department (Bejaia, Algeria). Microbiological and cohort study were conducted at the Biological Engineering of Cancers laboratory at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Bejaia. All the data showed that patients aged between 50 and 70 years were the most affected by colorectal cancer, while the age categories of [30-40] and [40-50] were the least affected. Males were more likely to be at risk of contracting colorectal cancer than females. The most common types of colorectal cancer among the studied population were sigmoid cancer, rectal cancer, transverse colon cancer, and ascending colon cancer. The hereditary factor was found to be more dominant than other risk factors. Bacterial identification revealed the presence of certain pathogenic and opportunistic bacterial genera, such as E. coli, K. pneumoniae, Shigella sp, and Streptococcus group D. These results led us to conclude that dysbiosis of the intestinal microbiome is strongly present in colorectal cancer patients at the EPH of Amizour.

Keywords: microbiome, colorectal cancer, risk factors, bacterial identification

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Authors: Todor Bačkalić, Marinko Maslarić, Milosav Georgijević, Sanja Bojić

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Water transport could be the backbone of the future European combined transport system. The future transport policy in landlocked countries from the Danube Region has to be based on inland waterway transport (IWT). The development of the container transport on inland waterways depends directly on technical-exploitative characteristics of the network of inland waterways. Research of navigational abilities of inland waterways is the basic step in transport planning. The size of the vessel’s draught (T) is the limiting value in project tasks and it depends on the depth of the waterway. Navigation characteristics of rivers have to be determined as precise as possible, especially from the aspect of determination of the possible draught of vessels. This article outlines a rationale, why it is necessary to develop competence about infrastructure risk in water transport. Climate changes are evident and require special attention and global monitoring. Current risk assessment methods for Inland waterway transport just consider some dramatic events. We present a new method for the assessment of risk and vulnerability of inland waterway transport where river depth represents a crucial part. The analysis of water level changes in the lower Danube was done for two significant periods (1965-1979 and 1998-2012).

Keywords: container vessel, draught, probability, the Danube

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Authors: S. Lungtae, C. Noknoi

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The main purpose of this research is to analyze the marketing strategies of the various five-star rated herbal businesses of One Tambon One Product (OTOP) entrepreneurs in Songkhla province, Thailand. This includes the targeting, positioning and marketing mix in order to develop marketing strategies for OTOP entrepreneurs. The data were collected from the presidents of herbal-product enterprises in Songkhla province. The products of all these enterprises were selected as five-star herbal products for the OTOP project in 2012. In-depth interviews were conducted, and content analysis was used to analyze the data. The research found that the community enterprises should 1) increase the range of product sizes offered, 2) increase their distribution channels, 3) publicize more to inform consumers about their identities and products, 4) undertake promotional activities during the festival, and 5) choose salespeople who are knowledgeable about the features of their products.

Keywords: marketing mix, market positioning, marketing strategies, target market.

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Authors: Nawaf A. Alqahtani, Ali M. Alqahtani, Khalid A. Alqahtani, Huda S. Abdullfattah, Ebtehal A. Alessa, Khalid S. Al Gelban, Ossama A. Mostafa

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Background: The internet is an exciting medium that is becoming an essential part of everyday life. Although the internet is fully observed in Saudi Arabia, young people may be vulnerable to problematic internet use, possibly leading to addiction. Aim of study: To explore the magnitude of internet addiction (IA) among medical students associated risk factors and its impact on students' academic achievement. Subjects and Methods: A cross sectional study was conducted in 2014 on 571 medical students (293 males and 278 females) at the College of Medicine, King Khalid University, Abha, Saudi Arabia. Data Collection was done through using the Arabic version of the Compulsive Internet Use Scale and a checklist of demographic characteristics. Results: Age of participants ranged from 19 to 26 years (Mean+SD: 21.9+1.5 years). Internet access was available to 97.4% of students at home and to 80.2% of students at their mobile phones. The most frequently accessed websites by medical students were the social media (90.7%), scientific website (50.4%) and the news websites (31.3%). IA was mild in 47.8% of medical students while 5.8% had moderate IA. None of the students had severe IA. Prevalence of IA was significantly higher among female medical students (p=0.002), availability of internet at home (p=0.022), and availability of internet at the students' mobile phone (p=0.041). The mean General Point Average (GPA) was highest among students with mild IA (4.0+0.6), compared with 3.6+0.6 among those with moderate addiction, and 3.9+0.6 among those who did not show IA. Differences in mean GPA according to grade of IA were statistically significant ((P=0.001). Conclusions: Prevalence of IA is high among medical students in Saudi Arabia. Risk factors for IA include female gender, availability of internet at home or at the mobile phone. IA has a significant impact on students' GPA. Periodic screening of medical students for IA and raising their awareness toward the possible risk of IA are recommended.

Keywords: internet addiction, medical students, risk factors, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Harini Chakkera

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Background: Inpatient hyperglycemia is an established independent risk factor among several patient cohorts with hospital readmission. This has not been studied after kidney transplantation. Nearly one-third of patients who have undergone a kidney transplant reportedly experience 30-day readmission. Methods: Data on first-time solitary kidney transplantations were retrieved between September 2015 to December 2018. Information was linked to the electronic health record to determine a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus and extract glucometeric and insulin therapy data. Univariate logistic regression analysis and the XGBoost algorithm were used to predict 30-day readmission. We report the average performance of the models on the testing set on five bootstrapped partitions of the data to ensure statistical significance. Results: The cohort included 1036 patients who received kidney transplantation, and 224 (22%) experienced 30-day readmission. The machine learning algorithm was able to predict 30-day readmission with an average AUC of 77.3% (95% CI 75.30-79.3%). We observed statistically significant differences in the presence of pretransplant diabetes, inpatient-hyperglycemia, inpatient-hypoglycemia, and minimum and maximum glucose values among those with higher 30-day readmission rates. The XGBoost model identified the index admission length of stay, presence of hyper- and hypoglycemia and recipient and donor BMI values as the most predictive risk factors of 30-day readmission. Additionally, significant variations in the therapeutic management of blood glucose by providers were observed. Conclusions: Suboptimal glucose metrics during hospitalization after kidney transplantation is associated with an increased risk for 30-day hospital readmission. Optimizing the hospital blood glucose management, a modifiable factor, after kidney transplantation may reduce the risk of 30-day readmission.

Keywords: kidney, transplant, diabetes, insulin

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Authors: Puntarikorn Rungrattanakasin

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Objectives: To develop the trigger tool to warn about the risk of bleeding as an adverse event from warfarin drug usage during admission in Medical Wards of Chumphae Hospital. Methods: A retrospective study was performed by reviewing the medical records for the patients admitted between June 1st,2020- May 31st, 2021. ADEs were evaluated by Naranjo’s algorithm. The international normalized ratio (INR) and events of bleeding during admissions were collected. Statistical analyses, including Chi-square test and Reciever Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve for optimal INR threshold, were used for the study. Results: Among the 139 admissions, the INR range was found to vary between 0.86-14.91, there was a total of 15 bleeding events, out of which 9 were mild, and 6 were severe. The occurrence of bleeding started whenever the INR was greater than 2.5 and reached the statistical significance (p <0.05), which was in concordance with the ROC curve and yielded 100 % sensitivity and 60% specificity in the detection of a bleeding event. In this regard, the INR greater than 2.5 was considered to be an optimal threshold to alert promptly for bleeding tendency. Conclusions: The INR value of greater than 2.5 (>2.5) would be an appropriate trigger tool to warn of the risk of bleeding for patients taking warfarin in Chumphae Hospital.

Keywords: trigger tool, warfarin, risk of bleeding, medical wards

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Authors: Aisha F. Bushager

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Today we are more exposed than ever to cyber threats and attacks at personal, community, organizational, national, and international levels. More aspects of our lives are operating on computer networks simply because we are living in the fifth domain, which is called the Cyberspace. One of the most sensitive areas that are vulnerable to cyber threats and attacks is the Electronic Banking (e-Banking) area, where the banking sector is providing online banking services to its clients. To be able to obtain the clients trust and encourage them to practice e-Banking, also, to maintain the services provided by the banks and ensure safety, cyber security and risks control should be given a high priority in the e-banking area. The aim of the study is to carry out risk assessment on the e-banking services and determine the cyber threats, cyber attacks, and vulnerabilities that are facing the e-banking area specifically in the Kingdom of Bahrain. To collect relevant data, structured interviews were taken place with e-banking experts in different banks. Then, collected data where used as in input to the risk management framework provided by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), which was the model used in the study to assess the risks associated with e-banking services. The findings of the study showed that the cyber threats are commonly human errors, technical software or hardware failure, and hackers, on the other hand, the most common attacks facing the e-banking sector were phishing, malware attacks, and denial-of-service. The risks associated with the e-banking services were around the moderate level, however, more controls and countermeasures must be applied to maintain the moderate level of risks. The results of the study will help banks discover their vulnerabilities and maintain their online services, in addition, it will enhance the cyber security and contribute to the management and control of risks that are facing the e-banking sector.

Keywords: cyber security, e-banking, risk assessment, threats identification

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Authors: Assefa Mitike Janko, Gosa Alemu

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The review of supply and marketing of floriculture in Ethiopia was conducted to analyses the production potential and to know the marketing share of the country. The data was collected from secondary and primary. Ethiopia has been operating in the floriculture industry for over 20 years. As is the case in many developing countries, the major export items of Ethiopia are dominated by few agricultural products that earn very small amounts in the international market. Moreover, most of the exports are destined to only few countries. Given the highly capital intensive nature of production and processing, rose farming is not a smallholder activity. It is also important to note the extremely tightly controlled time dimension of the logistics process, given the product attributes desired and the fragility and perishability of the roses. Another characteristic of the Ethiopian floriculture sector is the lack of domestically produced inputs that flower producers can access. The export volume and value of cut-flowers accounts for a small proportion of the total exports of Ethiopia. In recent years the sector is showing improvements in terms of the quality and quantity of exports to the international market.

Keywords: roses, production, value chain, floriculture, supply

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