Search results for: weather prediction

Authors: Zia Ullah, Ruh Ullah

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A research study was conceded in four locations (Swat, Dir, Kakul and Balakot) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, to find agro-climatic classes by using aridity index, Growing Degree Days of wheat and maize, crop growth index and Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall by using long term climatic data (1970-2010). The climatic data used for research was acquired from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Islamabad, Agriculture Research Institute, Weather Station Peshawar and Tarnab Peshawar. Agro-climatic classes of each location were determined using three criteria mean temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest month and aridity index. The agro-climatic classes of Dir, Swat, Kakul and Balakot were classified as Humid, Cold and very Warm (H-K-VW). Average aridity index of wheat for Dir, Swat, Kakul, and Balakot was 2.23, 2.67, 1.94 and 2.34 and for Maize was 1.31, 1.26, 1.97, and 2.83 respectively. The overall and decade-wise trend of GDD of Wheat and Maize was declined in Swat and Kakul while increased in Dir and Balakot.The average maximum CGI (1.26) and (0.73) of Wheat and Maize was observed for Balakot and Dir, while the minimum (1.09) and (0.62) was observed for Swat and Kakul. Spatio-temporal analysis of rainfall shows that the trend has increased in Swat while decreased in Dir, Kakul and Balakot. From the relation between rainfalls with altitude showed that there was an increasing trend between rainfalls with altitude. The maximum average rainfall was in Swat (2703mm) on altitude 2000m while the minimum average rainfall was observed in Kakul (1410mm) on altitude of 1255m.

Keywords: agro-climatic zones, aridity index, GDD, rainfall

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Authors: Riccardo Angiuli, Michele Giannuzzi, Rodolfo Franchi, Gabriele Papadia

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Temperature knowledge in machining is fundamental to improve the numerical and FEM models used for the study of some critical process aspects, such as the behavior of the worked material and tool. The extreme conditions in which they operate make it impossible to use traditional measuring instruments; infrared thermography can be used as a valid measuring instrument for temperature measurement during metal cutting. In the study, a large experimental program on superduplex steel (ASTM A995 gr. 5A) cutting was carried out, the relevant cutting temperatures were measured by infrared thermography when certain cutting parameters changed, from traditional values to extreme ones. The values identified were used to calibrate a FEM model for the prediction of residual life of the tools. During the study, the problems related to the detection of cutting temperatures by infrared thermography were analyzed, and a dedicated procedure was developed that could be used during similar processing.

Keywords: machining, infrared thermography, FEM, temperature measurement

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Authors: Djarot B. Darmadi

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The wider growing Finite Element Method (FEM) application is caused by its benefits of cost saving and environment friendly. Also, by using FEM a deep understanding of certain phenomenon can be achieved. This paper observed the role of material properties and volumetric change when Solid State Phase Transformation (SSPT) takes place in residual stress formation due to a welding process of ferritic steels through coupled Thermo-Metallurgy-Mechanical (TMM) analysis. The correctness of FEM residual stress prediction was validated by experiment. From parametric study of the FEM model, it can be concluded that the material properties change tend to over-predicts residual stress in the weld center whilst volumetric change tend to underestimates it. The best final result is the compromise of both by incorporates them in the model which has a better result compared to a model without SSPT.

Keywords: residual stress, ferritic steels, SSPT, coupled-TMM

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Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-COV-2 epidemic, SIR model

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Authors: Slim Chokri

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Load forecasting is one of the central functions in power systems operations. Electricity cannot be stored, which means that for electric utility, the estimate of the future demand is necessary in managing the production and purchasing in an economically reasonable way. A majority of the recently reported approaches are based on neural network. The attraction of the methods lies in the assumption that neural networks are able to learn properties of the load. However, the development of the methods is not finished, and the lack of comparative results on different model variations is a problem. This paper presents a new approach in order to predict the Tunisia daily peak load. The proposed method employs a computational intelligence scheme based on the Fuzzy neural network (FNN) and support vector regression (SVR). Experimental results obtained indicate that our proposed FNN-SVR technique gives significantly good prediction accuracy compared to some classical techniques.

Keywords: neural network, load forecasting, fuzzy inference, machine learning, fuzzy modeling and rule extraction, support vector regression

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Authors: Laidi Maamar, Hanini Salah

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The present work investigates the potential of artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict the horizontal global solar radiation (HGSR). The ANN is developed and optimized using three years meteorological database from 2011 to 2013 available at the meteorological station of Blida (Blida 1 university, Algeria, Latitude 36.5°, Longitude 2.81° and 163 m above mean sea level). Optimal configuration of the ANN model has been determined by minimizing the Root Means Square Error (RMSE) and maximizing the correlation coefficient (R2) between observed and predicted data with the ANN model. To select the best ANN architecture, we have conducted several tests by using different combinations of parameters. A two-layer ANN model with six hidden neurons has been found as an optimal topology with (RMSE=4.036 W/m²) and (R²=0.999). A graphical user interface (GUI), was designed based on the best network structure and training algorithm, to enhance the users’ friendliness application of the model.

Keywords: artificial neural network, global solar radiation, solar energy, prediction, Algeria

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Authors: Omonov Jahongir Mahmatkulovic

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Purpose: To study the significance of D-dimer (DD), prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), thrombin time (TT), and fibrinogen coagulation parameters (Fg) in predicting the course, severity and prognosis of COVID-19. Source and method of research: From September 15, 2021, to November 5, 2021, 93 patients aged 25 to 60 with suspected COVID-19, who are under inpatient treatment at the multidisciplinary clinic of the Tashkent Medical Academy, were retrospectively examined. DD, PT, APTT, and Fg were studied in dynamics and studied changes. Results: Coagulation disorders occurred in the early stages of COVID-19 infection with an increase in DD in 54 (58%) patients and an increase in Fg in 93 (100%) patients. DD and Fg levels are associated with the clinical classification. Of the 33 patients who died, 21 had an increase in DD in the first laboratory study, 27 had an increase in DD in the second and third laboratory studies, and 15 had an increase in PT in the third test. The results of the ROC analysis of mortality showed that the AUC DD was three times 0.721, 0.801, and 0.844, respectively; PT was 0.703, 0.845, and 0.972. (P<0:01). Conclusion”: Coagulation dysfunction is more common in patients with severe and critical conditions. DD and PT can be used as important predictors of mortality from COVID-19.

Keywords: Covid19, DD, PT, Coagulogram analysis, APTT

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Authors: Ju-Young Hwang, Hyo-Gyoung Kwak

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This paper introduces a numerical analysis method for reinforced-concrete (RC) structures exposed to fire and compares the result with experimental results. The proposed analysis method for RC structure under the high temperature consists of two procedures. First step is to decide the temperature distribution across the section through the heat transfer analysis by using the time-temperature curve. After determination of the temperature distribution, the nonlinear analysis is followed. By considering material and geometrical nonlinearity with the temperature distribution, nonlinear analysis predicts the behavior of RC structure under the fire by the exposed time. The proposed method is validated by the comparison with the experimental results. Finally, prediction model to describe the status of after-cooling concrete can also be introduced based on the results of additional experiment. The product of this study is expected to be embedded for smart structure monitoring system against fire in u-City.

Keywords: RC, high temperature, after-cooling analysis, nonlinear analysis

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Authors: Wanutchaya Duanginta, Napaporn Apiratmateekul, Tippawan Sangkaew, Sunaree Wekinhirun, Kunchit Kongros, Wanvisa Treebuphachatsakul

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Thailand has a tropical climate with an average outdoor ambient air temperature of over 30°C, which can exceed manufacturer recommendations for the storage of glucose test strips. This study monitored temperature and humidity at actual sites of five sub-district health promoting hospitals (HPH) in Phitsanulok Province for the storage of glucose test strips in refrigerated conditions. Five calibrated data loggers were placed at the actual sites for glucose test strip storage at five HPHs for 8 weeks between April and June. For the stress test, two lot numbers of glucose test strips, each with two glucose meters, were kept in a plastic box with desiccants and placed in a refrigerator with the temperature calibrated to 4°C and at room temperature (RT). Temperature and humidity in the refrigerator and at RT were measured every hour for 30 days. The mean temperature for storing test strips at the five HPHs ranged from 29°C to 33°C, and three of the five HPHs (60%) had a mean temperature above 30°C. The refrigerator temperatures were 3.8 ± 2.0°C (2.0°C to 6.5°C), and relative humidity was 51 ± 2% (42 to 54%). The maximum of blood glucose testing by glucose meters when the test strips were stored in a refrigerator were not significantly different (p > 0.05) from unstressed test strips for both glucose meters using amperometry-GDH-PQQ and amperometry-GDH-FAD principles. Opening the test strip vial daily resulted in higher variation than when refrigerated after a single-use. However, the variations were still within an acceptable range. This study concludes that glucose tested strips can be stored in plastic boxes in a refrigerator if it is well-controlled for temperature and humidity. Storage of glucose-tested strips in the refrigerator during hot and humid weather may be useful for HPHs with limited air conditioners.

Keywords: environmental stressed test, thermal stressed test, quality control, point-of-care testing

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Authors: G. K. Pandey, D. Ramadasu, I. Banerjee, V. Vinod, G. Padmakumar, V. Prakash, K. K. Rajan

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Detailed thermal hydraulic investigations are very essential for safe and reliable functioning of liquid metal cooled fast breeder reactors. These investigations are further more important for components with complex profile, since there is no direct correlation available in literature to evaluate the hydraulic characteristics of such components directly. In those cases available correlations for similar profile or geometries may lead to significant uncertainty in the outcome. Hence experimental approach can be adopted to evaluate these hydraulic characteristics more precisely for better prediction in reactor core components. Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), a sodium cooled pool type reactor is under advanced stage of construction at Kalpakkam, India. Several components of this reactor core require hydraulic investigation before its usage in the reactor. These hydraulic investigations on full scale models, carried out by experimental approaches using water as simulant fluid are discussed in the paper.

Keywords: fast breeder reactor, cavitation, pressure drop, reactor components

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Authors: Jesus Ruano, Francesc Xavier Trias, Asensi Oliva

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A three-dimensional incompressible Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is performed to compute the hydrodynamic field around a pair of tandem cylinders. Symmetry-preserving schemes will be used during this simulation in conjunction with Finite Volume Method (FVM) to obtain the hydrodynamic field around the selected geometry. A set of results consisting of pressure and velocity and the combination of them will be stored at different surfaces near the cylinders as the initial input for the second part of the study. A post-processing of the obtained results based on Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings (FWH) equation with a Fourier Transform of the acoustic sources will be used to compute noise at several probes located far away from the region where the hydrodynamics are computed. Directivities as well as spectral profile of the obtained acoustic field will be analyzed.

Keywords: far-field noise, Ffowcs-Williams and Hawkings, finite volume method, large eddy simulation, long-span bodies

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Authors: N. P. Yadav, Deepti Verma

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This paper focuses on the mathematical modeling for solidification of Al alloy in a cube mould cavity to study the solidification behavior of casting process. The parametric investigation of solidification process inside the cavity was performed by using computational solidification/melting model coupled with Volume of fluid (VOF) model. The implicit filling algorithm is used in this study to understand the overall process from the filling stage to solidification in a model metal casting process. The model is validated with past studied at same conditions. The solidification process are analyzed by including the effect of pouring velocity and temperature of liquid metal, effect of wall temperature as well natural convection from the wall and geometry of the cavity. These studies show the possibility of various defects during solidification process.

Keywords: buoyancy driven flow, natural convection driven flow, residual flow, secondary flow, volume of fluid

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Authors: Jai Prakash Prasad, Suresh Chandra Mohan

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Modern wireless sensor networks (WSN) consist of small size, low cost devices which are networked through tight wireless communications. WSN fundamentally offers cooperation, coordination among sensor networks. Potential applications of wireless sensor networks are in healthcare, natural disaster prediction, data security, environmental monitoring, home appliances, entertainment etc. The design, development and deployment of WSN based on application requirements. The WSN design performance is optimized to improve network lifetime. The sensor node resources constrain such as energy and bandwidth imposes the limitation on efficient resource utilization and sensor node management. The proposed N-Tier GRID routing protocol focuses on the design of energy efficient large scale wireless sensor network for improved performance than the existing protocol.

Keywords: energy efficient, network lifetime, sensor networks, wireless communication

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Authors: Pegah Eshraghi, Zahra Sadat Zomorodian, Mohammad Tahsildoost

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Over the past decade, energy consumption in educational buildings has steadily increased. The purpose of this research is to provide a method to quickly predict the energy consumption of buildings using separate evaluation of zones and decomposing the building to eliminate the complexity of geometry at the early design stage. To produce this framework, machine learning algorithms such as Support vector regression (SVR) and Artificial neural network (ANN) are used to predict energy consumption and thermal comfort metrics in a school as a case. The database consists of more than 55000 samples in three climates of Iran. Cross-validation evaluation and unseen data have been used for validation. In a specific label, cooling energy, it can be said the accuracy of prediction is at least 84% and 89% in SVR and ANN, respectively. The results show that the SVR performed much better than the ANN.

Keywords: early stage of design, energy, thermal comfort, validation, machine learning

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Authors: S. A. Naeini, A. Khalili

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Nowadays, tunnels with different applications are developed, and most of them are related to subway tunnels. The excavation of shallow tunnels that pass under municipal utilities is very important, and the surface settlement control is an important factor in the design. The study sought to analyze the settlement and also to find an appropriate model in order to predict the behavior of the tunnel in Tehran subway line-3. The displacement in these sections is also determined by using numerical analyses and numerical modeling. In addition, the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method is utilized by Hybrid training algorithm. The database pertinent to the optimum network was obtained from 46 subway tunnels in Iran and Turkey which have been constructed by the new Austrian tunneling method (NATM) with similar parameters based on type of their soil. The surface settlement was measured, and the acquired results were compared to the predicted values. The results disclosed that computing intelligence is a good substitute for numerical modeling.

Keywords: settlement, Subway Line, FLAC3D, ANFIS Method

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Authors: N. Alhazmi

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Knowing the thermodynamics properties of hydrocarbons is vital when it comes to analyzing the related chemical reaction outcomes and understanding the reaction process, especially in terms of petrochemical industrial applications, combustions, and catalytic reactions. However, measuring the thermodynamics properties experimentally is time-consuming and costly. In this paper, Gaussian process regression (GPR) has been used to directly predict the main thermodynamic properties - standard enthalpy of formation, standard entropy, and heat capacity -for more than 360 cyclic and non-cyclic alkanes, alkenes, and alkynes. A simple workflow has been proposed that can be applied to directly predict the main properties of any hydrocarbon by knowing its descriptors and chemical structure and can be generalized to predict the main properties of any material. The model was evaluated by calculating the statistical error R², which was more than 0.9794 for all the predicted properties.

Keywords: thermodynamic, Gaussian process regression, hydrocarbons, regression, supervised learning, entropy, enthalpy, heat capacity

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Authors: Mohamed M. Abo Elazm, Ali I. Shehata, Mohamed M. Khairat Dawood

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A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) program FLUENT has been used to predict the fluid flow and heat transfer distribution within concentric heat exchangers. The effect of inlet inclination angle has been investigated with Reynolds number range (3000 – 4000) and Pr=0.71. The heat exchanger is fabricated from copper concentric inner tube with a length of 750 mm. The effects of hot to cold inlet flow rate ratio (MH/MC), Reynolds's number and of inlet inclination angle of 30°, 45°, 60° and 90° are considered. The results showed that the numerical prediction shows a good agreement with experimental measurement. The results present an efficient design of concentric tube heat exchanger to enhance the heat transfer by increasing the swirling effect.

Keywords: heat transfer, swirling effect, CFD, inclination angle, concentric tube heat exchange

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Authors: Amir Mabhout, Toktam Ghafarian, Amirhossein Farzin, Zahra Makki, Sajjad Alizadeh, Amirhossein Ghavi

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The high number of Netflix subscribers makes it attractive for data scientists to extract valuable knowledge from the viewers' behavioural analyses. This paper presents a set of statistical insights into viewers' viewing history. After that, a deep learning model is used to predict the future watching behaviour of the users based on previous watching history within the Netflixlatte data pool. Netflixlatte in an aggregated and anonymized data pool of 320 Netflix viewers with a length 250 000 data points recorded between 2008-2022. We observe insightful correlations between the distribution of viewing time and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. The presented deep learning model predicts future movie and TV series viewing habits with an average loss of 0.175.

Keywords: data analysis, deep learning, LSTM neural network, netflix

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Authors: Tine Cencič, Marko Hočevar, Brane Širok

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An experimental investigation has been made to detect cavitation in pump–storage hydro power plant prototype suffering from cavitation in pump mode. Vibrations and acoustic emission on the housing of turbine bearing and pressure fluctuations in the draft tube were measured and the corresponding signals have been recorded and analyzed. The analysis was based on the analysis of high-frequency content of measured variables. The pump-storage hydro power plant prototype has been operated at various input loads and Thoma numbers. Several estimators of cavitation were evaluated according to coefficient of determination between Thoma number and cavitation estimators. The best results were achieved with a compound discharge coefficient cavitation estimator. Cavitation estimators were evaluated in several intervals of frequencies. Also, a prediction of cavitation erosion was made in order to choose the appropriate maintenance and repair periods.

Keywords: cavitation erosion, turbine, cavitation measurement, fluid dynamics

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Authors: R. J. Chang

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A cyclostationary Gaussian linearization method is formulated for investigating the time average response of nonlinear system under sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation. The quantitative measure of cyclostationary mean, variance, spectrum of mean amplitude, and mean power spectral density of noise is analyzed. The qualitative response behavior of stochastic jump and bifurcation are investigated. The validity of the present approach in predicting the quantitative and qualitative statistical responses is supported by utilizing Monte Carlo simulations. The present analysis without imposing restrictive analytical conditions can be directly derived by solving non-linear algebraic equations. The analytical solution gives reliable quantitative and qualitative prediction of mean and noise response for the Duffing system subjected to both sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation.

Keywords: cyclostationary, duffing system, Gaussian linearization, sinusoidal, white noise

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Authors: M. H. Korayem, Sh. Ameri, N. Yousefi Lademakhi

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To ensure the stability of closed-loop nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) within a finite horizon, there is a need for appropriate design terminal ingredients, which can be a time-consuming and challenging effort. Otherwise, in order to ensure the stability of the control system, it is necessary to consider an infinite predictive horizon. Increasing the prediction horizon increases computational demand and slows down the implementation of the method. In this study, a new technique has been proposed to ensure system stability without terminal ingredients. This technique has been employed in the design of the NMPC algorithm, leading to a reduction in the computational complexity of designing terminal ingredients and computational burden. The studied system is a wheeled mobile robot (WMR) subjected to non-holonomic constraints. Simulation has been investigated for two problems: trajectory tracking and adjustment mode.

Keywords: wheeled mobile robot, nonlinear model predictive control, stability, without terminal ingredients

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Authors: Zerarka Hizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent

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The landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) is characterized by a complex geology and a high hydrogeology hazard. AEH's perpetual reactivation compels us to look closely at its triggers and to better understand the mechanisms of its evolution in mass and in depth. This study builds a numerical model to simulate the influencing factors such as precipitation, non-saturation, and pore pressure fluctuations, using Plaxis software. For a finer analysis of instabilities, we use Hill's criterion, based on the sign of the second order work, which is the most appropriate material stability criterion for non-associated elastoplastic materials. The results of this type of calculation allow us, in theory, to predict the shape and position of the slip surface(s) which are liable to ground movements of the slope, before reaching the rupture given by the plastic limit of Mohr Coulomb. To validate the numerical model, an analysis of inclinometer measures is performed to confirm the direction of movement and kinematic of the sliding mechanism of AEH’s slope.

Keywords: landslide, second order work, precipitation, inclinometers

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Authors: Hanan Al-Khalaifah, Afaf Al-Nasser

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Probiotics and prebiotics claimed to serve as effective alternatives to antibiotics in the poultry. This study aims to investigate the effect of different probiotics and prebiotics on the economic impact analysis of the use of probiotics and prebiotics in broiler feed. The study involved four broiler cycles, two during winter and two during summer. In the first two cycles (summer and winter), different types of prebiotics and probiotics were used. The probiotics were Bacillus coagulans (1 g/kg dried culture) and Lactobacillus (1 g/kg dried culture of 12 commercial strains), and prebiotics included fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS) (5 g/kg) and mannan-oligosaccharide (MOS) derived from Saccharomyces cerevisiae (5 g/kg). Based on the results obtained, the best treatment was chosen to be FOS, from which different ratios were used in the last two cycles during winter and summer. The levels of FOS chosen were 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7% of the diet. From an economic point of view, it was generally concluded that in all dietary treatments, food was consumed less in cycle 1 than in cycle 2, the total body weight gain was more in cycle 1 than cycle 2, and the average feed efficiency was less in cycle l than cycle 2. This indicates that the weather condition affected better in cycle 1. Also, there were very small differences between the dietary treatments in each cycle. In cycle 1, the best total feed consumption was for the FOS treatment, the highest total body weight gain and average feed efficiency were for B. coagulans. In cycle 2, all performance was better in FOS treatment. FOS significantly reduced the Salmonella sp. counts in the intestine, where the environment was driven towards acidity. FOS was the best on the average taste panel study of the produced meat. Accordingly, FOS prebiotic was chosen to be the best treatment to be used in cycles 3 and 4. The economic impact analysis generally revealed that there were no big differences between the treatments in all of the studied indicators, but there was a difference between the cycles.

Keywords: antibiotic, economic impact, prebiotic, probiotic, broiler

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Authors: Mahmoud S Gewaily, Atif Hasan, Mohamed Kassab, Ali A. Mansour

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The current study was carried out on the nose of seventeenth healthy adult camels. Specimens were collected from slaughter houses then fixed, dissected and photographed. For ultra structural studies, fresh samples were fixed in different fixatives and prepared for examination by light, scanning and electron microscopes. Grossly, nose of the camel had narrow nostrils, slit like in outline. In the nasal cavity, the nasal vestibule was narrow and has scanty dorsal and lateral cartilaginous support. The Nasal conchae (dorsal, middle and ventral) enclosed the dorsal, middle conchal sinuses and no ventral conchal sinus; instead there was recess and bull a. The ethmoidal conchae (8 in number) were noticeably fewer than in the other domestic animals like ox and horse. The olfactory mucosa was restricted to a small area covering the caudal parts of the ethmoidal conchae. The lining epithelium of the nasal cavity changes gradually from stratified squamous epithelium in the nasal vestibule to pseudo stratified columnar ciliated in the respiratory region and finally, olfactory epithelium covering the caudal parts of the ethmoidal conchae. In the dromedary camel, a special feature was the presence of dense and relatively long hair covering the nostrils and the rostral part of the nasal vestibule. In conclusion, the anatomical features of the nose of the dromedary camel, especially in its rostral parts enable this animal to breathe properly in the sandy dry weather.

Keywords: camel nose, anatomy, dromedary camel, nasal vestibule

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Authors: Musa H. Arslan, Murat Ceylan, Tayfun Koyuncu

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In this study, an artificial intelligence-based (ANN based) analytical method has been developed for analyzing earthquake performances of the reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. 66 RC buildings with four to ten storeys were subjected to performance analysis according to the parameters which are the existing material, loading and geometrical characteristics of the buildings. The selected parameters have been thought to be effective on the performance of RC buildings. In the performance analyses stage of the study, level of performance possible to be shown by these buildings in case of an earthquake was determined on the basis of the 4-grade performance levels specified in Turkish Earthquake Code- 2007 (TEC-2007). After obtaining the 4-grade performance level, selected 23 parameters of each building have been matched with the performance level. In this stage, ANN-based fast evaluation algorithm mentioned above made an economic and rapid evaluation of four to ten storey RC buildings. According to the study, the prediction accuracy of ANN has been found about 74%.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, earthquake, performance, reinforced concrete

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Authors: Siripen Yiamjanya, Kevin Wongleedee

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This research paper aims to identify travel motivation by push and pull factors that affected decision making of international tourists in selecting Thailand as their destination choice. A total of 200 international tourists who traveled to Thailand during January and February, 2014 were used as the sample in this study. A questionnaire was employed as a tool in collecting the data, conducted in Bangkok. The list consisted of 30 attributes representing both psychological factors as “push- based factors” and destination factors as “pull-based factors”. Mean and standard deviation were used in order to find the top ten travel motives that were important determinants in the respondents’ decision making process to select Thailand as their destination choice. The finding revealed the top ten travel motivations influencing international tourists to select Thailand as their destination choice included [i] getting experience in foreign land; [ii] Thai food; [iii] learning new culture; [iv] relaxing in foreign land; [v] wanting to learn new things; [vi] being interested in Thai culture, and traditional markets; [vii] escaping from same daily life; [viii] enjoying activities; [ix] adventure; and [x] good weather. Classification of push- based and pull- based motives suggested that getting experience in foreign land was the most important push motive for international tourists to travel, while Thai food portrayed its highest significance as pull motive. Discussion and suggestions were also made for tourism industry of Thailand.

Keywords: decision making, destination choice, international tourist, pull factor, push factor, Thailand, travel motivation

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Authors: Carla M. Machado, André A. Silva, Armando Bastos, Telmo G. Santos, J. Pamies Teixeira

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Advanced high-strength steels (AHSS) are increasingly being used in automotive components. The use of AHSS sheets plays an important role in reducing weight, as well as increasing the resistance to impact in vehicle components. However, the large-scale use of these sheets becomes more difficult due to the limitations during the forming process. Such limitations are due to the elastically driven change of shape of a metal sheet during unloading and following forming, known as the springback effect. As the magnitude of the springback tends to increase with the strength of the material, it is among the most worrisome problems in the use of AHSS steels. The prediction of strain hardening, especially under non-proportional loading conditions, is very limited due to the lack of constitutive models and mainly due to very limited experimental tests. It is very clear from the literature that in experimental terms there is not much work to evaluate deformation behavior under real conditions, which implies a very limited and scarce development of mathematical models for these conditions. The Bauschinger effect is also fundamental to the difference between kinematic and isotropic hardening models used to predict springback in sheet metal forming. It is of major importance to deepen the phenomenological knowledge of the mechanical and microstructural behavior of the materials, in order to be able to reproduce with high fidelity the behavior of extension of the materials by means of computational simulation. For this, a multi phenomenological analysis and characterization are necessary to understand the various aspects involved in plastic deformation, namely the stress-strain relations and also the variations of electrical conductivity and magnetic permeability associated with the metallurgical changes due to plastic deformation. Aiming a complete mechanical-microstructural characterization, uniaxial tensile tests involving successive cycles of loading and unloading were performed, as well as biaxial tests such as the Erichsen test. Also, nondestructive evaluation comprising eddy currents to verify microstructural changes due to plastic deformation and ultrasonic tests to evaluate the local variations of thickness were made. The material parameters for the stable yield function and the monotonic strain hardening were obtained using uniaxial tension tests in different material directions and balanced biaxial tests. Both the decrease of the modulus of elasticity and Bauschinger effect were determined through the load-unload tensile tests. By means of the eddy currents tests, it was possible to verify changes in the magnetic permeability of the material according to the different plastically deformed areas. The ultrasonic tests were an important aid to quantify the local plastic extension. With these data, it is possible to parameterize the different models of kinematic hardening to better approximate the results obtained by simulation with the experimental results, which are fundamental for the springback prediction of the stamped parts.

Keywords: advanced high strength steel, Bauschinger effect, sheet metal forming, springback

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Authors: Andrea Ghermandi

Abstract:

Natural treatment systems such as constructed wetlands and waste stabilization ponds are increasingly used to treat water and wastewater from a variety of sources, including stormwater and polluted surface water. The provision of ancillary benefits in the form of cultural ecosystem services makes these systems unique among water and wastewater treatment technologies and greatly contributes to determine their potential role in promoting sustainable water management practices. A quantitative analysis of these benefits, however, has been lacking in the literature. Here, a critical assessment of the recreational and educational benefits in natural treatment systems is provided, which combines observed public use from a survey of managers and operators with estimated public use as obtained using geotagged photos from social media as a proxy for visitation rates. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to characterize the spatial boundaries of 273 natural treatment systems worldwide. Such boundaries are used as input for the Application Program Interfaces (APIs) of two popular photo-sharing websites (Flickr and Panoramio) in order to derive the number of photo-user-days, i.e., the number of yearly visits by individual photo users in each site. The adequateness and predictive power of four univariate calibration models using the crowdsourced data as a proxy for visitation are evaluated. A high correlation is found between photo-user-days and observed annual visitors (Pearson's r = 0.811; p-value < 0.001; N = 62). Standardized Major Axis (SMA) regression is found to outperform Ordinary Least Squares regression and count data models in terms of predictive power insofar as standard verification statistics – such as the root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP), the mean absolute error of prediction (MAEP), the reduction of error (RE), and the coefficient of efficiency (CE) – are concerned. The SMA regression model is used to estimate the intensity of public use in all 273 natural treatment systems. System type, influent water quality, and area are found to statistically affect public use, consistently with a priori expectations. Publicly available information regarding the home location of the sampled visitors is derived from their social media profiles and used to infer the distance they are willing to travel to visit the natural treatment systems in the database. Such information is analyzed using the travel cost method to derive monetary estimates of the recreational benefits of the investigated natural treatment systems. Overall, the findings confirm the opportunities arising from an integrated design and management of natural treatment systems, which combines the objectives of water quality enhancement and provision of cultural ecosystem services through public use in a multi-functional approach and compatibly with the need to protect public health.

Keywords: constructed wetlands, cultural ecosystem services, ecological engineering, waste stabilization ponds

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Authors: O. J. Akinsola, Yinan Zheng, Rose Anorlu, F. T. Ogunsola, Lifang Hou, Robert Leo-Murphy

Abstract:

Cervical Cancer (CC) is the 2nd most common cancer among women living in low and middle-income countries, with no associated symptoms during formative periods. With the advancement and innovative medical research, there are numerous preventive measures being utilized, but the incidence of cervical cancer cannot be truncated with the application of only screening tests. The mortality associated with this invasive cervical cancer can be nipped in the bud through the important role of early-stage detection. This study research selected an array of different top features selection techniques which was aimed at developing a model that could validly diagnose the risk factors of cervical cancer. A retrospective clinic-based cohort study was conducted on 178 HIV-associated cervical cancer patients in Lagos University teaching Hospital, Nigeria (U54 data repository) in April 2022. The outcome measure was the automated prediction of the HIV-associated cervical cancer cases, while the predictor variables include: demographic information, reproductive history, birth control, sexual history, cervical cancer screening history for invasive cervical cancer. The proposed technique was assessed with R and Python programming software to produce the model by utilizing the classification algorithms for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer disease. Four machine learning classification algorithms used are: the machine learning model was split into training and testing dataset into ratio 80:20. The numerical features were also standardized while hyperparameter tuning was carried out on the machine learning to train and test the data. Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). Some fitting features were selected for the detection and diagnosis of cervical cancer diseases from selected characteristics in the dataset using the contribution of various selection methods for the classification cervical cancer into healthy or diseased status. The mean age of patients was 49.7±12.1 years, mean age at pregnancy was 23.3±5.5 years, mean age at first sexual experience was 19.4±3.2 years, while the mean BMI was 27.1±5.6 kg/m2. A larger percentage of the patients are Married (62.9%), while most of them have at least two sexual partners (72.5%). Age of patients (OR=1.065, p<0.001**), marital status (OR=0.375, p=0.011**), number of pregnancy live-births (OR=1.317, p=0.007**), and use of birth control pills (OR=0.291, p=0.015**) were found to be significantly associated with HIV-associated cervical cancer. On top ten 10 features (variables) considered in the analysis, RF claims the overall model performance, which include: accuracy of (72.0%), the precision of (84.6%), a recall of (84.6%) and F1-score of (74.0%) while LR has: an accuracy of (74.0%), precision of (70.0%), recall of (70.0%) and F1-score of (70.0%). The RF model identified 10 features predictive of developing cervical cancer. The age of patients was considered as the most important risk factor, followed by the number of pregnancy livebirths, marital status, and use of birth control pills, The study shows that data mining techniques could be used to identify women living with HIV at high risk of developing cervical cancer in Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African countries.

Keywords: associated cervical cancer, data mining, random forest, logistic regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Naveed Ul Hassan, Bilal Aziz, Maryam Mushtaq, Imran Ameen Khan

Abstract:

Equity risk premium (ERP) is the stock return in excess of risk free return. Even though it is an essential topic of finance but still there is no common consensus upon its forecasting. For forecasting ERP, apart from the macroeconomic variables attention is devoted to technical indicators as well. For this purpose, set of 14 technical and 14 macro-economic variables is selected and all forecasts are generated based on a standard predictive regression framework, where ERP is regressed on a constant and a lag of a macroeconomic variable or technical indicator. The comparative results showed that technical indicators provide better indications about ERP estimates as compared to macro-economic variables. The relative strength of ERP predictability is also investigated by using National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data of business cycle expansion and recessions and found that ERP predictability is more than twice for recessions as compared to expansions.

Keywords: equity risk premium, forecasting, macroeconomic indicators, technical indicators

Procedia PDF Downloads 306