Search results for: application of social media
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 18218

Search results for: application of social media

2828 A Data Driven Methodological Approach to Economic Pre-Evaluation of Reuse Projects of Ancient Urban Centers

Authors: Pietro D'Ambrosio, Roberta D'Ambrosio

Abstract:

The upgrading of the architectural and urban heritage of the urban historic centers almost always involves the planning for the reuse and refunctionalization of the structures. Such interventions have complexities linked to the need to take into account the urban and social context in which the structure and its intrinsic characteristics such as historical and artistic value are inserted. To these, of course, we have to add the need to make a preliminary estimate of recovery costs and more generally to assess the economic and financial sustainability of the whole project of re-socialization. Particular difficulties are encountered during the pre-assessment of costs since it is often impossible to perform analytical surveys and structural tests for both structural conditions and obvious cost and time constraints. The methodology proposed in this work, based on a multidisciplinary and data-driven approach, is aimed at obtaining, at very low cost, reasonably priced economic evaluations of the interventions to be carried out. In addition, the specific features of the approach used, derived from the predictive analysis techniques typically applied in complex IT domains (big data analytics), allow to obtain as a result indirectly the evaluation process of a shared database that can be used on a generalized basis to estimate such other projects. This makes the methodology particularly indicated in those cases where it is expected to intervene massively across entire areas of historical city centers. The methodology has been partially tested during a study aimed at assessing the feasibility of a project for the reuse of the monumental complex of San Massimo, located in the historic center of Salerno, and is being further investigated.

Keywords: evaluation, methodology, restoration, reuse

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2827 Restructuring the College Classroom: Scaffolding Student Learning and Engagement in Higher Education

Authors: Claire Griffin

Abstract:

Recent years have witnessed a surge in the use of innovative teaching approaches to support student engagement and higher-order learning within higher education. This paper seeks to explore the use of collaborative, interactive teaching and learning strategies to support student engagement in a final year undergraduate Developmental Psychology module. In particular, the use of the jigsaw method, in-class presentations and online discussion fora were adopted in a ‘lectorial’ style teaching approach, aimed at scaffolding learning, fostering social interdependence and supporting various levels of student engagement in higher education. Using the ‘Student Course Engagement Questionnaire’, the impact of such teaching strategies on students’ college classroom experience was measured, with additional qualitative student feedback gathered. Results illustrate the positive impact of the teaching methodologies on students’ levels of engagement, with positive implications emerging across the four engagement factors: skills engagement, emotional engagement, participation/interaction engagement and performance engagement. Thematic analysis on students’ qualitative comments also provided greater insight into the positive impact of the ‘lectorial’ teaching approach on students’ classroom experience within higher level education. Implications of the findings are presented in terms of informing effective teaching practices within higher education. Additional avenues for future research and strategy usage will also be discussed, in light of evolving practice and cutting edge literature within the field.

Keywords: learning, higher education, scaffolding, student engagement

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2826 DIF-JACKET: a Thermal Protective Jacket for Firefighters

Authors: Gilda Santos, Rita Marques, Francisca Marques, João Ribeiro, André Fonseca, João M. Miranda, João B. L. M. Campos, Soraia F. Neves

Abstract:

Every year, an unacceptable number of firefighters are seriously burned during firefighting operations, with some of them eventually losing their life. Although thermal protective clothing research and development has been searching solutions to minimize firefighters heat load and skin burns, currently commercially available solutions focus in solving isolated problems, for example, radiant heat or water-vapor resistance. Therefore, episodes of severe burns and heat strokes are still frequent. Taking this into account, a consortium composed by Portuguese entities has joined synergies to develop an innovative protective clothing system by following a procedure based on the application of numerical models to optimize the design and using a combinationof protective clothing components disposed in different layers. Recently, it has been shown that Phase Change Materials (PCMs) can contribute to the reduction of potential heat hazards in fire extinguish operations, and consequently, their incorporation into firefighting protective clothing has advantages. The greatest challenge is to integrate these materials without compromising garments ergonomics and, at the same time, accomplishing the International Standard of protective clothing for firefighters – laboratory test methods and performance requirements for wildland firefighting clothing. The incorporation of PCMs into the firefighter's protective jacket will result in the absorption of heat from the fire and consequently increase the time that the firefighter can be exposed to it. According to the project studies and developments, to favor a higher use of the PCM storage capacityand to take advantage of its high thermal inertia more efficiently, the PCM layer should be closer to the external heat source. Therefore, in this stage, to integrate PCMs in firefighting clothing, a mock-up of a vest specially designed to protect the torso (back, chest and abdomen) and to be worn over a fire-resistant jacketwas envisaged. Different configurations of PCMs, as well as multilayer approaches, were studied using suitable joining technologies such as bonding, ultrasound, and radiofrequency. Concerning firefighter’s protective clothing, it is important to balance heat protection and flame resistance with comfort parameters, namely, thermaland water-vapor resistances. The impact of the most promising solutions regarding thermal comfort was evaluated to refine the performance of the global solutions. Results obtained with experimental bench scale model and numerical simulation regarding the integration of PCMs in a vest designed as protective clothing for firefighters will be presented.

Keywords: firefighters, multilayer system, phase change material, thermal protective clothing

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2825 Co-Seismic Deformation Using InSAR Sentinel-1A: Case Study of the 6.5 Mw Pidie Jaya, Aceh, Earthquake

Authors: Jefriza, Habibah Lateh, Saumi Syahreza

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The 2016 Mw 6.5 Pidie Jaya earthquake is one of the biggest disasters that has occurred in Aceh within the last five years. This earthquake has caused severe damage to many infrastructures such as schools, hospitals, mosques, and houses in the district of Pidie Jaya and surrounding areas. Earthquakes commonly occur in Aceh Province due to the Aceh-Sumatra is located in the convergent boundaries of the Sunda Plate subducted beneath the Indo-Australian Plate. This convergence is responsible for the intensification of seismicity in this region. The plates are tilted at a speed of 63 mm per year and the right lateral component is accommodated by strike- slip faulting within Sumatra, mainly along the great Sumatran fault. This paper presents preliminary findings of InSAR study aimed at investigating the co-seismic surface deformation pattern in Pidie Jaya, Aceh-Indonesia. Coseismic surface deformation is rapid displacement that occurs at the time of an earthquake. Coseismic displacement mapping is required to study the behavior of seismic faults. InSAR is a powerful tool for measuring Earth surface deformation to a precision of a few centimetres. In this study, two radar images of the same area but at two different times are required to detect changes in the Earth’s surface. The ascending and descending Sentinel-1A (S1A) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and Sentinels application platform (SNAP) toolbox were used to generate SAR interferogram image. In order to visualize the InSAR interferometric, the S1A from both master (26 Nov 2016) and slave data-sets (26 Dec 2016) were utilized as the main data source for mapping the coseismic surface deformation. The results show that the fringes of phase difference have appeared in the border region as a result of the movement that was detected with interferometric technique. On the other hand, the dominant fringes pattern also appears near the coastal area, this is consistent with the field investigations two days after the earthquake. However, the study has also limitations of resolution and atmospheric artefacts in SAR interferograms. The atmospheric artefacts are caused by changes in the atmospheric refractive index of the medium, as a result, has limitation to produce coherence image. Low coherence will be affected the result in creating fringes (movement can be detected by fringes). The spatial resolution of the Sentinel satellite has not been sufficient for studying land surface deformation in this area. Further studies will also be investigated using both ALOS and TerraSAR-X. ALOS and TerraSAR-X improved the spatial resolution of SAR satellite.

Keywords: earthquake, InSAR, interferometric, Sentinel-1A

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2824 Adding a Degree of Freedom to Opinion Dynamics Models

Authors: Dino Carpentras, Alejandro Dinkelberg, Michael Quayle

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Within agent-based modeling, opinion dynamics is the field that focuses on modeling people's opinions. In this prolific field, most of the literature is dedicated to the exploration of the two 'degrees of freedom' and how they impact the model’s properties (e.g., the average final opinion, the number of final clusters, etc.). These degrees of freedom are (1) the interaction rule, which determines how agents update their own opinion, and (2) the network topology, which defines the possible interaction among agents. In this work, we show that the third degree of freedom exists. This can be used to change a model's output up to 100% of its initial value or to transform two models (both from the literature) into each other. Since opinion dynamics models are representations of the real world, it is fundamental to understand how people’s opinions can be measured. Even for abstract models (i.e., not intended for the fitting of real-world data), it is important to understand if the way of numerically representing opinions is unique; and, if this is not the case, how the model dynamics would change by using different representations. The process of measuring opinions is non-trivial as it requires transforming real-world opinion (e.g., supporting most of the liberal ideals) to a number. Such a process is usually not discussed in opinion dynamics literature, but it has been intensively studied in a subfield of psychology called psychometrics. In psychometrics, opinion scales can be converted into each other, similarly to how meters can be converted to feet. Indeed, psychometrics routinely uses both linear and non-linear transformations of opinion scales. Here, we analyze how this transformation affects opinion dynamics models. We analyze this effect by using mathematical modeling and then validating our analysis with agent-based simulations. Firstly, we study the case of perfect scales. In this way, we show that scale transformations affect the model’s dynamics up to a qualitative level. This means that if two researchers use the same opinion dynamics model and even the same dataset, they could make totally different predictions just because they followed different renormalization processes. A similar situation appears if two different scales are used to measure opinions even on the same population. This effect may be as strong as providing an uncertainty of 100% on the simulation’s output (i.e., all results are possible). Still, by using perfect scales, we show that scales transformations can be used to perfectly transform one model to another. We test this using two models from the standard literature. Finally, we test the effect of scale transformation in the case of finite precision using a 7-points Likert scale. In this way, we show how a relatively small-scale transformation introduces both changes at the qualitative level (i.e., the most shared opinion at the end of the simulation) and in the number of opinion clusters. Thus, scale transformation appears to be a third degree of freedom of opinion dynamics models. This result deeply impacts both theoretical research on models' properties and on the application of models on real-world data.

Keywords: degrees of freedom, empirical validation, opinion scale, opinion dynamics

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2823 Horizontal Development of Built-up Area and Its Impacts on the Agricultural Land of Peshawar City District (1991-2014)

Authors: Pukhtoon Yar

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Peshawar City is experiencing a rapid spatial urban growth primarily as a result of high rate of urbanization along with economic development. This paper was designed to understand the impacts of urbanization on agriculture land use change by particularly focusing on land use change trajectories from the past (1991-2014). We used Landsat imageries (30 meters) for1991along with Spot images (2.5 meters) for year 2014. . The ground truthing of the satellite data was performed by collecting information from Peshawar Development Authority, revenue department, real estate agents and interviews with the officials of city administration. The temporal satellite images were processed by applying supervised maximum likelihood classification technique in ArcGIS 9.3. The procedure resulted into five main classes of land use i.e. built-up area, farmland, barren land, cultivable-wasteland and water bodies. The analysis revealed that, in Peshawar City the built-up environment has been doubled from 8.1 percent in 1991 to over 18.2 percent in 2014 by predominantly encroaching land producing food. Furthermore, the CA-Markov Model predicted that the area under impervious surfaces would continue to flourish during the next three decades. This rapid increase in built-up area is accredited to the lack of proper land use planning and management, which has caused chaotic urban sprawl with detrimental social and environmental consequences.

Keywords: Urban Expansion, Land use, GIS, Remote Sensing, Markov Model, Peshawar City

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2822 Exploring Factors Associated with Substance Use among Pregnant Women in a Cape Town Community

Authors: Mutshinye Manguvhewa, Maria Florence, Mansoo Yu, Elize Koch, Kamal Kamaloodien

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Substance use among pregnant women is a perennial problem in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. There are many influential factors are associated with substance use among women of childbearing age. The study explored factors associated with substance use among pregnant women using a qualitative research design and the bio-ecological theoretical framework to explore and guide the researcher throughout the study. Participants were selected using purposive sampling. Only participants accessed from the Department of Social Development meeting the inclusion criteria of the study were interviewed using semi structured interviews. Immediate referral for psychological intervention during the interview was available for participants who needed it. Braun and Clarke's six phases of thematic analysis were utilised to analyse the data. The study adheres to ethical guidelines for the participants' protection. Participants were informed about the study before the initiation of the interviews and the details of their voluntary participation were explained. The key findings from this study illustrate that socio-cultural factors, personal factors, emotional response and intimate relationships are the major contributing factors to substance use among pregnant women in this sample. The results outline the preventative measures that pregnant women implement. Lastly, the study reveals the positive and negative perceptions of substance use programmes that participants share. Some of the study findings are similar to the existing literature and some of the findings differed. Recommendations emanating from the study include that the stakeholders, rehabilitation centres, Department of Health and future researchers should act proactively against substance use during pregnancy.

Keywords: substance addiction, antenatal care, pregnancy, substance use

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2821 Aquatic Environmental Effects of Black Shale in Eastern Kentucky through the Measurement of Chemical and Physical Properties

Authors: Mitchell T. Grothaus, Cory Grigsby, Timothy S. Hare

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This study aims to determine if there is a relationship between elevated cancer risks in eastern Kentucky and the environmental effects of black shale. Previous research shows that black shale formations, such as those in eastern Kentucky contain high levels of toxic elements including arsenic and radon compared to average rocks and sediment. Similarly, the population of eastern Kentucky has higher rates of many health conditions, including lung cancer and cardiovascular disease, than surrounding regions. These poor health outcomes are typically explained in relation to social, economic, behavioral, and healthcare factors. The rates of many conditions, however, have not decreased as these factors improve with regional development. Black shale is known to affect environmental conditions such as by increasing radiation levels and heavy metal toxicity. We are mapping the effects of black shale through monitoring radiation, microbes, and chemical standards of water sources. In this presentation, we report on our measuring pH, dissolved oxygen, total dissolved solids, conductivity, temperature, and discharge and comparison with water quality standards from the Kentucky Department for Environmental Protection. The conditions of water sources combined with an environmental survey of the surrounding areas provide a greater understanding of why the people in eastern Kentucky face the current health issues.

Keywords: black shale, eastern Kentucky, environmental impact, water quality

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2820 Investigating the Socio-ecological Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Rural Communities in Ghana

Authors: Benjamin Ankomah-Asare, Richard Adade

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Sea level rise (SLR) poses a significant threat to coastal communities globally. Ghana has over the years implemented protective measures such as the construction of groynes and revetment to serve as barriers to sea waves in major cities and towns to prevent sea erosion and flooding. For vulnerable rural coastal communities, the planned retreat is often proposed; however, relocation costs are often underestimated as losses of future social and cultural value are not always adequately taken into account. Through a mixed-methods approach combining qualitative interviews, surveys, and spatial analysis, the study examined the experiences of coastal rural communities in Ghana and assess the effectiveness of relocation strategies in addressing the socio-economic and environmental challenges posed by sea level rise. The study revealed the devastating consequences of sea level rise on these communities, including increased flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources. Moreover, it highlights the adaptive capacities within these communities and how factors such as infrastructure, economic activities, cultural heritage, and governance structures shape their resilience in the face of environmental change. While relocation can be an effective strategy in reducing the risks associated with sea level rise, the study recommends that proper implementation of this adaptation strategy can be achieved when coupled with community-led planning, participatory decision-making, and targeted support for vulnerable groups.

Keywords: sea level rise, relocation, socio-ecological impacts, rural communities

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2819 Corrosion Protection and Failure Mechanism of ZrO₂ Coating on Zirconium Alloy Zry-4 under Varied LiOH Concentrations in Lithiated Water at 360°C and 18.5 MPa

Authors: Guanyu Jiang, Donghai Xu, Huanteng Liu

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After the Fukushima-Daiichi accident, the development of accident tolerant fuel cladding materials to improve reactor safety has become a hot topic in the field of nuclear industry. ZrO₂ has a satisfactory neutron economy and can guarantee the fission chain reaction process, which enables it to be a promising coating for zirconium alloy cladding. Maintaining a good corrosion resistance in primary coolant loop during normal operations of Pressurized Water Reactors is a prerequisite for ZrO₂ as a protective coating on zirconium alloy cladding. Research on the corrosion performance of ZrO₂ coating in nuclear water chemistry is relatively scarce, and existing reports failed to provide an in-depth explanation for the failure causes of ZrO₂ coating. Herein, a detailed corrosion process of ZrO₂ coating in lithiated water at 360 °C and 18.5 MPa was proposed based on experimental research and molecular dynamics simulation. Lithiated water with different LiOH solutions in the present work was deaerated and had a dissolved oxygen concentration of < 10 ppb. The concentration of Li (as LiOH) was determined to be 2.3 ppm, 70 ppm, and 500 ppm, respectively. Corrosion tests were conducted in a static autoclave. Modeling and corresponding calculations were operated on Materials Studio software. The calculation of adsorption energy and dynamics parameters were undertaken by the Energy task and Dynamics task of the Forcite module, respectively. The protective effect and failure mechanism of ZrO₂ coating on Zry-4 under varied LiOH concentrations was further revealed by comparison with the coating corrosion performance in pure water (namely 0 ppm Li). ZrO₂ coating provided a favorable corrosion protection with the occurrence of localized corrosion at low LiOH concentrations. Factors influencing corrosion resistance mainly include pitting corrosion extension, enhanced Li+ permeation, short-circuit diffusion of O²⁻ and ZrO₂ phase transformation. In highly-concentrated LiOH solutions, intergranular corrosion, internal oxidation, and perforation resulted in coating failure. Zr ions were released to coating surface to form flocculent ZrO₂ and ZrO₂ clusters due to the strong diffusion and dissolution tendency of α-Zr in the Zry-4 substrate. Considering that primary water of Pressurized Water Reactors usually includes 2.3 ppm Li, the stability of ZrO₂ make itself a candidate fuel cladding coating material. Under unfavorable conditions with high Li concentrations, more boric acid should be added to alleviate caustic corrosion of ZrO₂ coating once it is used. This work can provide some references to understand the service behavior of nuclear coatings under variable water chemistry conditions and promote the in-pile application of ZrO₂ coating.

Keywords: ZrO₂ coating, Zry-4, corrosion behavior, failure mechanism, LiOH concentration

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2818 Analysis of the Development of Communicative Skills After Participating in the Equine-Assisted-Therapy Program Step-By-Step in Communication

Authors: Leticia Souza Guirra, Márcia Eduarda Vieira Ramos, Edlaine Souza Pereira, Leticia Correa Celeste

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Introduction: Studies indicate that equine-assisted therapy enables improvements in several areas of functioning that are impaired in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), such as social interaction and communication. Objective: The study proposes to analyze the development of dialogic skills of a verbal child with ASD after participating in the equine-assisted therapy Step By Step in Communication. Method: This is quantitative and qualitative research through a case study. It refers to a 6 years old child diagnosed with ASD belonging to a group of practitioners of the Brazilian National Equine-Assited-Therapy Association. The Behavioral Observation Protocol (PROC) was used to evaluate communicative skills before and after the intervention, which consisted of 24 sessions once a week. Results: All conversational skills increased their frequency, with participation in dialogue and initiation of interaction. The child also increases the habit of waiting for his turn and answering the interlocutor. The emission of topics not related to conversation and echolalia showed a significant decrease after the intervention. Conclusion: The studied child showed improvement in communicative skills after participating in the equine-assisted therapy Step By Step in Communication. Contributions: This study contributes to a greater understanding of the impact of equine-assisted therapy on the communicative abilities of children with ASD.

Keywords: equine-assisted-therapy, autism spectrum disorder, language, communication, language and hearing sciences

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2817 Language Services as a Means of Language Repository for Tuition Support and Facilitation of Learning in Institution of Higher Learning

Authors: Mzamani Aaron, Mabasa

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The research study examines the reality that the Language Services Directorate can be considered a language repository hub. The study postulates that multilingual education guided by language policy implementation can improve student performance and pass rate. Various documents in the form of style guides, glossaries and tutorial letters may be used to enable students to understand complex words, sentences, phrases and paragraphs when technical vocabularies are used. This paper addresses the way in which quality assurance can transform South African official languages, including Sign Language, as mandated by the Language Policy for Higher Education. The paper further emphasizes that Language Services is unique in the sense that it involves all South African officials as tools for student support and facilitation of learning. This is in line with the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa (1996) and the Unisa Language Policy of 2023, which declares the status, parity and esteem of these official languages regarding usage in formal function domains, namely education, economy, social and politics. The aim of this paper is to ensure that quality assurance is ultimately accomplished in terms of teaching and learning standards. Eventually, all South African languages can be used for official domains to achieve functional multilingualism. This paper furthermore points out that content analysis as a research instrument as far as a qualitative approach is concerned may be used as a data collection technique.

Keywords: repository, multilingualism, policy, education

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2816 Electronic Transparency in Georgia as a Basis for Development of Electronic Governance

Authors: Lasha Mskhaladze, Guram Burchuladze, Khvicha Datunashvili

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Technological changes have an impact not only on economic but also on social elements of society which in turn has created new challenges for states’ political systems and their regimes. As a result of unprecedented growth of information technologies and communications digital democracy and electronic governance have emerged. Nowadays effective state functioning cannot be imagined without electronic governance. In Georgia, special attention is paid to the development of such new systems and establishment of electronic governance. Therefore, in parallel to intensive development of information technologies an important priority for public sector in Georgia is the development of electronic governance. In spite of the fact that today Georgia with its economic indicators satisfies the standards of western informational society, and major part of its gross domestic product comes from the service sector (59.6%), it still remains a backward country on the world map in terms of information technologies and electronic governance. E-transparency in Georgia should be based on such parameters as government accountability when the government provides citizens information about their activities; e-participation which involves government’s consideration of external expert assessments; cooperation between officials and citizens in order to solve national problems. In order to improve electronic systems the government should actively do the following: Fully develop electronic programs concerning HR and exchange of data between public organizations; develop all possible electronic services; improve existing electronic programs; make electronic services available on different mobile platforms (iPhone, Android, etc.).

Keywords: electronic transparency, electronic services, information technology, information society, electronic systems

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2815 Ex-vivo Bio-distribution Studies of a Potential Lung Perfusion Agent

Authors: Shabnam Sarwar, Franck Lacoeuille, Nadia Withofs, Roland Hustinx

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After the development of a potential surrogate of MAA, and its successful application for the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism in artificially embolized rats’ lungs, this microparticulate system were radiolabelled with gallium-68 to synthesize 68Ga-SBMP with high radiochemical purity >99%. As a prerequisite step of clinical trials, 68Ga- labelled starch based microparticles (SBMP) were analysed for their in-vivo behavior in small animals. The purpose of the presented work includes the ex-vivo biodistribution studies of 68Ga-SBMP in order to assess the activity uptake in target organs with respect to time, excretion pathways of the radiopharmaceutical, %ID/g in major organs, T/NT ratios, in-vivo stability of the radiotracer and subsequently the microparticles in the target organs. Radiolabelling of starch based microparticles was performed by incubating it with 68Ga generator eluate (430±26 MBq) at room temperature and pressure without using any harsh reaction condition. For Ex-vivo biodistribution studies healthy White Wistar rats weighing between 345-460 g were injected intravenously 68Ga-SBMP 20±8 MBq, containing about 2,00,000-6,00,000 SBMP particles in a volume of 700µL. The rats were euthanized at predefined time intervals (5min, 30min, 60min and 120min) and their organ parts were cut, washed, and put in the pre-weighed tubes and measured for radioactivity counts through automatic Gamma counter. The 68Ga-SBMP produced >99% RCP just after 10-20 min incubation through a simple and robust procedure. Biodistribution of 68Ga-SBMP showed that initially just after 5 min post injection major uptake was observed in the lungs following by blood, heart, liver, kidneys, bladder, urine, spleen, stomach, small intestine, colon, skin and skeleton, thymus and at last the smallest activity was found in brain. Radioactivity counts stayed stable in lungs with gradual decrease with the passage of time, and after 2h post injection, almost half of the activity were seen in lungs. This is a sufficient time to perform PET/CT lungs scanning in humans while activity in the liver, spleen, gut and urinary system decreased with time. The results showed that urinary system is the excretion pathways instead of hepatobiliary excretion. There was a high value of T/NT ratios which suggest fine tune images for PET/CT lung perfusion studies henceforth further pre-clinical studies and then clinical trials should be planned in order to utilize this potential lung perfusion agent.

Keywords: starch based microparticles, gallium-68, biodistribution, target organs, excretion pathways

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2814 Cross- Cultural Cooperation and Innovation: An Exploration of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Europe

Authors: Yongsheng Guo, Shuchao Li

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This study explores Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Europe and the cross-cultural cooperation between Chinese and European managers. The aim of this research is to shed light on the phenomenon of investments in developed countries from an emerging market and to gain insights into the cooperation process. A grounded theory approach is adopted, and 46 semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 case companies in Germany and 13 case companies in the UK. Grounded theory models are developed from primary data and interview quotes are used to support the themes. The interviewees perceived differences between the two parties in cultural traits, management concepts, knowledge structure and resource endowment between the two parties. Chinese and European partners can take advantage of different resources and cooperate in innovative ways to improve corporate performance. Moreover, both parties appreciate different ethical and cultural characteristics and complement each other to develop a combined organizational culture. This study proposes an ethical and cultural diversity theory in international management arguing that a team with diversified values and behaviors may be more excited and motivated. This study suggests that “resource complement” and “cross-cultural cooperation” might be an advantage for international investment. Firms are encouraged to open their minds and cooperate with partners with different resources and cultures. The authorities may review the FDI policies to reduce social and political barriers.

Keywords: cross-culture, FDI, cooperation, innovation, China, Europe

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2813 Wind Power Assessment for Turkey and Evaluation by APLUS Code

Authors: Ibrahim H. Kilic, A. B. Tugrul

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Energy is a fundamental component in economic development and energy consumption is an index of prosperity and the standard of living. The consumption of energy per capita has increased significantly over the last decades, as the standard of living has improved. Turkey’s geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of wind power. Among the renewable sources, Turkey has very high wind energy potential. Information such as installation capacity of wind power plants in installation, under construction and license stages in the country are reported in detail. Some suggestions are presented in order to increase the wind power installation capacity of Turkey. Turkey’s economic and social development has led to a massive increase in demand for electricity over the last decades. Since the Turkey has no major oil or gas reserves, it is highly dependent on energy imports and is exposed to energy insecurity in the future. But Turkey does have huge potential for renewable energy utilization. There has been a huge growth in the construction of wind power plants and small hydropower plants in recent years. To meet the growing energy demand, the Turkish Government has adopted incentives for investments in renewable energy production. Wind energy investments evaluated the impact of feed-in tariffs (FIT) based on three scenarios that are optimistic, realistic and pessimistic with APLUS software that is developed for rational evaluation for energy market. Results of the three scenarios are evaluated in the view of electricity market for Turkey.

Keywords: APLUS, energy policy, renewable energy, wind power, Turkey

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2812 Precarious ID Cards - Studying Documentary Practices in India through the Lens of Internal Migration

Authors: Ambuja Raj

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This research will attempt to understand how documents are materially indispensable civic artifacts for migrants in their encounters with the state. Documents such as ID cards are sites of mediation and bureaucratic manifestation which reveal the inherent dynamics of power between the state and a delocalized people. While ID cards allow the holder to retain a different identity and articulate their demands as a citizen, they at the same time transform subjects into ‘objects’ in the exercise of governmental power. The research is based on the study of internal migrants in India, who are ‘visible’ to the state through its host of ID documents such as the ‘Aadhaar card’, electoral IDs, Ration cards, and a variety of region-specific documents, without the possession of which, not only are they unable to access jobs, public goods and services, and accommodation, but are liable to exploitation from state forces and mediators. Through semi-structured interviews with social actors in the processes of documentation and welfare of migrants, as well as with settlements of migrants themselves located in the state of Kerala in India, the thesis will attempt to understand the salience of documentary practices in the lives of inter-state migrants who move within Indian states in the hope of bettering their economic conditions. The research will trace the material and evolving significance of ID cards in the tenacity of states dealing with these ‘illegible’ populations. It will try to bring theories of governmentality, biopolitics and Weberian bureaucracy into the migrant issue while critically grounding itself on secondary literature by scholars who have worked on South Asian ‘governments of paper’.

Keywords: migration, historiography of documents, anthropology of state, documentary practices

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2811 Development of an EEG-Based Real-Time Emotion Recognition System on Edge AI

Authors: James Rigor Camacho, Wansu Lim

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Over the last few years, the development of new wearable and processing technologies has accelerated in order to harness physiological data such as electroencephalograms (EEGs) for EEG-based applications. EEG has been demonstrated to be a source of emotion recognition signals with the highest classification accuracy among physiological signals. However, when emotion recognition systems are used for real-time classification, the training unit is frequently left to run offline or in the cloud rather than working locally on the edge. That strategy has hampered research, and the full potential of using an edge AI device has yet to be realized. Edge AI devices are computers with high performance that can process complex algorithms. It is capable of collecting, processing, and storing data on its own. It can also analyze and apply complicated algorithms like localization, detection, and recognition on a real-time application, making it a powerful embedded device. The NVIDIA Jetson series, specifically the Jetson Nano device, was used in the implementation. The cEEGrid, which is integrated to the open-source brain computer-interface platform (OpenBCI), is used to collect EEG signals. An EEG-based real-time emotion recognition system on Edge AI is proposed in this paper. To perform graphical spectrogram categorization of EEG signals and to predict emotional states based on input data properties, machine learning-based classifiers were used. Until the emotional state was identified, the EEG signals were analyzed using the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) technique, which is a supervised learning system. In EEG signal processing, after each EEG signal has been received in real-time and translated from time to frequency domain, the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) technique is utilized to observe the frequency bands in each EEG signal. To appropriately show the variance of each EEG frequency band, power density, standard deviation, and mean are calculated and employed. The next stage is to identify the features that have been chosen to predict emotion in EEG data using the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) technique. Arousal and valence datasets are used to train the parameters defined by the KNN technique.Because classification and recognition of specific classes, as well as emotion prediction, are conducted both online and locally on the edge, the KNN technique increased the performance of the emotion recognition system on the NVIDIA Jetson Nano. Finally, this implementation aims to bridge the research gap on cost-effective and efficient real-time emotion recognition using a resource constrained hardware device, like the NVIDIA Jetson Nano. On the cutting edge of AI, EEG-based emotion identification can be employed in applications that can rapidly expand the research and implementation industry's use.

Keywords: edge AI device, EEG, emotion recognition system, supervised learning algorithm, sensors

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2810 The Experience of Community-based Tourism in Yunguilla, Ecuador and Its Social-Cultural Impact

Authors: York Neudel

Abstract:

The phenomenon of tourism has been considered as tool to overcome cultural frontiers, to comprehend the other and to cope with mutual mistrust and suspicion. Well, that has been a myth, at least when it comes to mass-tourism. Other approaches, like community-based tourism, still are based on the idea of embracing the other in order to help or to understand the cultural difference. In 1997, two American NGOs incentivized a tourism-project in a community in the highlands of Ecuador, in order to protect the cloud forest from destructive exploitation of its own inhabitants. Nineteen years after that, I analyze in this investigation the interactions between the Ecuadorian hosts in the mestizo-community of Yunguilla and the foreign tourist in the quest for “authentic life” in the Ecuadorian cloud forest. As a sort of “contemporary pilgrim” the traveller tries to find authenticity in other times and places far away from their everyday life in Europe or North America. Therefore, tourists are guided by stereotypes and expectations that are produced by the touristic industry. The host, on the other hand, has to negotiate this pre-established imaginary. That generates a kind of theatre-play with front- and backstage in organic gardens, little fabrics and even private housing, since this alternative project offers to share the private space of the host with the tourist in the setting the community-based tourism. In order to protect their privacy, the community creates new hybrid spaces that oscillate between front- and backstages that culminates in a game of hide and seek – a phenomenon that promises interesting frictions for an anthropological case-study.

Keywords: Tourism, Authenticity, Community-based tourism, Ecuador, Yunguilla

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2809 The Effect of Career Decision Self Efficacy on Coping with Career Indecision among Young Adults

Authors: Yuliya Lipshits-Braziler

Abstract:

For many young adults, career decision making is a difficult and complex process that may lead to indecision. Indecision is frequently associated with great psychological distress and low levels of well-being. One important resource for dealing with indecision is career decision self-efficacy (CDSE), which refers to people’s beliefs about their ability to successfully accomplish certain tasks involved in career choice. Drawing from Social Cognitive Theory, it has been hypothesized that CDSE correlates with (a) people’s likelihood to engage in or avoid career decision making tasks, (b) the amount of effort put into the decision making process, (c) the people’s persistence in decision making efforts when faced with difficulties, and (d) the eventual success in arriving at career decisions. Based on these assumptions, the present study examines the associations between the CDSE and 14 strategies for coping with career indecision among young adults. Using the structural equation modeling (SEM), the results showed that CDSE is positively associated with the use of productive coping strategies, such as information-seeking, problem-solving, positive thinking, and self-regulation. In addition, CDSE was negatively associated with nonproductive coping strategies, such as avoidance, isolation, ruminative thinking, and blaming others. Contrary to our expectations, CDSE was not significantly correlated with instrumental help-seeking, while it was negatively correlated with emotional help-seeking. The results of this study can be used to facilitate the development of interventions aiming to reinforce young adults’ career decision making self-efficacy, which may provide them with a basis for overcoming career indecision more effectively.

Keywords: career decision self-efficacy, career indecision, coping strategies, career counseling

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2808 Assessing Smallholder Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Coping Strategies Adopted in the Olifants Catchment of South Africa

Authors: Mary Funke Olabanji, Thando Ndarana, Nerhene Davis, Sylvester Okechukwu Ilo

Abstract:

Scientific evidence indicates that climate change is already being experienced by farmers, and its impacts are felt on agricultural and food systems. Understanding the perceptions of farmers on climate change and how they respond to this change is essential to the development and implementation of appropriate policies for agriculture and food security. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of farmers’ perceptions of climate change, adopted coping strategies, long-term implications of their adaptation choices, and barriers to their decisions to adapt. Data were randomly collected from 73 respondents in five districts located in the Olifants catchment of South Africa. A combination of descriptive statistics and Chi-Square statistical tests using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) was used to analyse the data obtained from the survey. Results show that smallholder farmers have an in-depth perception of climate change. The most significant changes perceived by farmers were increased temperature and low rainfall. The results equally revealed that smallholder farmers in the Olifants catchment had adopted several adaptation strategies in response to the perceived climate change. The significant adaptation strategies from the results include changing cropping patterns and planting date, use of improved seed variety, and chemical fertilizers. The study, therefore, concludes that crop diversification and agroforestry were more effective and sustainable in mitigating the impact of climate change.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, perception, smallholder farmers

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2807 An Empirical Enquiry on Cultural Influence and Purchase Decision for Durable Goods in Nigeria

Authors: Bright C. Opara, Gideon C. Uboegbulam

Abstract:

This study can be appreciated from the significant role culture exert in purchase decision of durable goods the world over. This study is motivated by cultural diversity in Nigeria and socio-economic changes that have taken place in the recent times. These call for the validation of similarly studies in order to formulate informed marketing strategies that will enhance purchase behaviour. This study therefore, is set out to examine the cultural influence in family purchase decision-making for durable goods in the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria (Hausa, Ibo, and Yoruba). The primary data was sourced using structured and semi-structured research questionnaire, while the secondary information was generated from existing / available relevant literature journals / periodicals. A judgmental sampling technique was used to determine the sample size of 300 households. The Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) statistical tool was used to test the hypotheses, with the aid of Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 17.0. The finding showed that cultural influence on the family Purchase Decision of Durable Goods does not significantly differ in three ethnic groups, and that family Purchase Decision Making for Durable Goods does not significantly differ in the three ethnic groups. We therefore, conclude that culture do not really impact significantly on the purchase behaviour of the three ethnic groups in the Nigeria as it does in some others. However, there is need for marketers and marketing decision makers not to generalise the findings of this study. This is because of the significant role culture play in purchase behaviour which differs from one culture or country to another.

Keywords: cultural, durable goods, influence, purchase decision

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2806 Study of the Possibility of Adsorption of Heavy Metal Ions on the Surface of Engineered Nanoparticles

Authors: Antonina A. Shumakova, Sergey A. Khotimchenko

Abstract:

The relevance of research is associated, on the one hand, with an ever-increasing volume of production and the expansion of the scope of application of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs), and on the other hand, with the lack of sufficient scientific information on the nature of the interactions of nanoparticles (NPs) with components of biogenic and abiogenic origin. In particular, studying the effect of ENMs (TiO2 NPs, SiO2 NPs, Al2O3 NPs, fullerenol) on the toxicometric characteristics of common contaminants such as lead and cadmium is an important hygienic task, given the high probability of their joint presence in food products. Data were obtained characterizing a multidirectional change in the toxicity of model toxicants when they are co-administered with various types of ENMs. One explanation for this fact is the difference in the adsorption capacity of ENMs, which was further studied in in vitro studies. For this, a method was proposed based on in vitro modeling of conditions simulating the environment of the small intestine. It should be noted that the obtained data are in good agreement with the results of in vivo experiments: - with the combined administration of lead and TiO2 NPs, there were no significant changes in the accumulation of lead in rat liver; in other organs (kidneys, spleen, testes and brain), the lead content was lower than in animals of the control group; - studying the combined effect of lead and Al2O3 NPs, a multiple and significant increase in the accumulation of lead in rat liver was observed with an increase in the dose of Al2O3 NPs. For other organs, the introduction of various doses of Al2O3 NPs did not significantly affect the bioaccumulation of lead; - with the combined administration of lead and SiO2 NPs in different doses, there was no increase in lead accumulation in all studied organs. Based on the data obtained, it can be assumed that at least three scenarios of the combined effects of ENMs and chemical contaminants on the body: - ENMs quite firmly bind contaminants in the gastrointestinal tract and such a complex becomes inaccessible (or inaccessible) for absorption; in this case, it can be expected that the toxicity of both ENMs and contaminants will decrease; - the complex formed in the gastrointestinal tract has partial solubility and can penetrate biological membranes and / or physiological barriers of the body; in this case, ENMs can play the role of a kind of conductor for contaminants and, thus, their penetration into the internal environment of the body increases, thereby increasing the toxicity of contaminants; - ENMs and contaminants do not interact with each other in any way, therefore the toxicity of each of them is determined only by its quantity and does not depend on the quantity of another component. Authors hypothesized that the degree of adsorption of various elements on the surface of ENMs may be a unique characteristic of their action, allowing a more accurate understanding of the processes occurring in a living organism.

Keywords: absorption, cadmium, engineered nanomaterials, lead

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2805 Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change: A Review of EU Tools, Legislation, National Strategies and Projects in the Mediterranean Basin

Authors: Dimitris Kokkinos, Panagiotis Prinos

Abstract:

In the last three decades, climate change has been studied extensively from scientific community, and its consequences are more than clear all around the world. Most countries have carried out a great effort to reduce global warming rates with the ratification and implementation of several international treaties. Moreover, many of them have already adopted national plans in order to adapt to climate change effects and mitigate human and economic losses. Coastal environments, with their inherent physical sensitivity, will face important challenges as a result of projected changes in climate conditions and hundreds of millions of people will be affected. Coastal zones are of high social and economic value and this research focuses on the Mediterranean basin, which is a densely populated and highly urbanized area. With 40% of its land used for human activity and the inevitability of the impacts of the climate change, it is obvious that some form of adaptation measures will be necessary. In this regard, the EU tools, policies and legislation concerning adaptation to climate change are presented. Additionally, the National Adaptation Strategies of State members of the Mediterranean basin are compared and analyzed concerning the coastal areas, along with an overview of projects and programs results focused on coastal issues at different spatial scales. The purpose of this research is to stress the differences between Mediterranean State members at methodologies implemented, to highlight the possible gaps in co-ordination and to emphasize on research initiatives that EU can build upon moving towards an integrated adaptation planning on a region-wide basis.

Keywords: coastal adaptation, Mediterranean Basin, climate change, coastal environments

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2804 Fatigue Influence on the Residual Stress State in Shot Peened Duplex Stainless Steel

Authors: P. D. Pedrosa, J. M. A. Rebello, M. P. Cindra Fonseca

Abstract:

Duplex stainless steels (DSS) exhibit a biphasic microstructure consisting of austenite and delta ferrite. Their high resistance to oxidation, and corrosion, even in H2S containing environments, allied to low cost when compared to conventional stainless steel, are some properties which make this material very attractive for several industrial applications. However, several of these industrial applications imposes cyclic loading to the equipments and in consequence fatigue damage needs to be a concern. A well-known way of improving the fatigue life of a component is by introducing compressive residual stress in its surface. Shot peening is an industrial working process which brings the material directly beneath component surface in a high mechanical compressive state, so inhibiting fatigue crack initiation. However, one must take into account the fact that the cyclic loading itself can reduce and even suppress these residual stresses, thus having undesirable consequences in the process of improving fatigue life by the introduction of compressive residual stresses. In the present work, shot peening was used to introduce residual stresses in several DSS samples. These were thereafter submitted to three different fatigue regimes: low, medium and high cycle fatigue. The evolution of the residual stress during loading were then examined on both surface and subsurface of the samples. It was used the DSS UNS S31803, with microstructure composed of 49% austenite and 51% ferrite. The treatment of shot peening was accomplished by the application of blasting in two Almen intensities of 0.25 and 0.39A. The residual stresses were measured by X-ray diffraction using the double exposure method and a portable equipment with CrK radiation and the (211) diffracting plane for the austenite phase and the (220) plane for the ferrite phase. It is known that residual stresses may arise when two regions of the same material experienced different degrees of plastic deformation. When these regions are separated in respect to each other on a scale that is large compared to the material's microstructure they are called macro stresses. In contrast, microstresses can largely vary over distances which are small comparable to the scale of the material's microstructure and must balance zero between the phases present. In the present work, special attention will be paid to the measurement of residual microstresses. Residual stress measurements were carried out in test pieces submitted to low, medium and high-cycle fatigue, in both longitudinal and transverse direction of the test pieces. It was found that after shot peening, the residual microstress is tensile in the austenite and compressive in the ferrite phases. It was hypothesized that the hardening behavior of the austenite after shot peening was probably due to its higher nitrogen content. Fatigue cycling can effectively change this stress state but this effect was found to be dependent of the shot peening intensity was well as the fatigue range.

Keywords: residual stresses, fatigue, duplex steel, shot peening

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2803 Older Adult Grandparents' Voices as a Principle Care Giver in a Skipped-Generation Family

Authors: Kerdsiri Hongthai, Darunee Jongudomkarn, Rutja Phuphaibul

Abstract:

In Thailand, many adults in rural areas migrate to seek employ¬ment resulting in skipped-generation family where grandparents care for grandchildren with no other adults present. This is a preliminary study using qualitative case study methods, aimed to explore the situations of older adult grandparents' experiences in skipped-generation family in North-East of Thailand. Data were collected by in-depth inter¬views with 6 grandparents living in skipped-generation families; 5 females and 1 males grandparents, aged 62-75, some of them have diabetes mellitus, hypertension, during November to December, 2017. The finding themes are: ‘Caught up in the middle’: the older adults were pleased to have grandchildren but, at the same time, acknowledge the burden that this placed on them, especially when the migrant children failed to send enough money back to support the family. ‘Getting bad health’: they reported to be fatigued and stressed due to burden of caring for their grandchildren without support. This situation can aggravate problems of poor health status and be worsening economic status of the grandparents. In some cases of deprivation, the grandparents feel that having to be the sole care providers of their grandchildren can negative adversely affect their mental status. It is important to find out in other sectors similar to Thailand and lead to more in-depth research to answer the research questions about policy and social support in skipped-generation family in the future.

Keywords: older adult grandparents, experiences, principle care giver, skipped-generation family

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2802 Correlates of Peer Influence and Resistance to HIV/AIDS Counselling and Testing among Students in Tertiary Institutions in Kano State, Nigeria

Authors: A. S. Haruna, M. U. Tambawal, A. A. Salawu

Abstract:

The psychological impact of peer influence on its individual group members, can make them resist HIV/AIDS counselling and testing. This study investigated the correlate of peer influence and resistance to HIV/AIDS counselling and testing among students in tertiary institutions in Kano state, Nigeria. To achieve this, three null hypotheses were postulated and tested. Cross-Sectional Survey Design was employed in which 1512 sample was selected from a student population of 104,841.Simple Random Sampling was used in the selection. A self-developed 20-item scale called Peer Influence and Psychological Resistance Inventory (PIPRI) was used for data collection. Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMCC) via test-retest method was applied to estimate a reliability coefficient of 0.86 for the scale. Data obtained was analyzed using t-test and PPMCC at 0.05 level of confidence. Results reveal 26.3% (397) of the respondents being influenced by their peer group, while 39.8% showed resistance. Also, the t-tests and PPMCC statistics were greater than their respective critical values. This shows that there was a significant gender difference in peer influence and a difference between peer influence and resistance to HIV/AIDS counselling and testing. However, a positive relationship between peer influence and resistance to HIV/AIDS counselling and testing was shown. A major recommendation offered suggests the use of reinforcement and social support for positive attitudes and maintenance of safe behaviour among students who patronize HIV/AIDS counselling.

Keywords: peer group influence, HIV/AIDS counselling and testing, psychological resistance, students

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2801 Inspiring Woman: The Emotional Intelligence Leadership of Khadijah Bint Khuwaylid

Authors: Eman S. Soliman, Sana Hawamdeh, Najmus S. Mahfooz

Abstract:

Purpose: The purpose of this paper was to examine various components of applied emotional intelligence as demonstrated in the leadership style of Khadijah Bint Khuwaylid in pre and post-Islamic society. Methodology: The research used a qualitative research method, specifically historical and ethnographic techniques. Data collection included both primary and secondary sources. Data from sources were analyzed to document the use of emotional intelligent leadership behaviors throughout Khadijah Bint Khuwaylid leadership experience from 596 A.D. to 621 A.D. Findings: Demonstration of four cornerstones of emotional intelligence which are self-awareness, self-management, social awareness and relationship management. Apply them on khadejah Bint Khuwaylid leadership style reveal that she possess main behavioral competences in the form of emotionally self-aware, self-.confidence, adaptability, empathy and influence. Conclusions: Khadijah Bint Khuwaylid serves as a historical model of effective leadership that included the use of emotional intelligence in her leadership behavior. The inclusion of the effective portion of the brain created a successful leadership style that can be learned by present day and future leadership. The recommendations for future leaders are to include the use of emotionally self-aware and self-confidence, adaptability, empathy and influence as components of leadership. This will then demonstrate in a leadership a basic knowledge and understanding of feelings, the keenness to be emotionally open with others, the ability to prototype beliefs and values, and the use of emotions in future communications, vision and progress.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, leadership, Khadijah Bint Khuwaylid, women

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2800 Examining the Relationship Between Depression and Drug and Alcohol Use in Iran

Authors: Masoumeh Kazemi

Abstract:

Depression is one of the most common mental disorders that damage mental health. In addition to mental distress, mental health damage affects other dimensions of human health, including physical and social health. According to the national study of diseases and injuries in Iran, the third health problem of the country is depression. The purpose of this study was to measure the level of depression in people referred to Karaj psychiatric treatment centers, and to investigate the relationship between depression and drug and alcohol consumption. The statistical population included 5000 people. Morgan table was used to determine the sample size. The research questions sought to identify the relationship between depression and factors such as drug and alcohol use, employment and marital status, and gender. Beck standard questionnaire was used to collect complete information. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to confirm the reliability of the questionnaire. To test research hypotheses, non-parametric methods of correlation coefficient, Spearman's rank, Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used. The results of using SPSS statistical software showed that there is a direct relationship between depression and drug and alcohol use. Also, the rate of depression was higher in women, widows and unemployed people. Finally, by conducting the present study, it is suggested that people use the following treatments in combination for effective recovery: 1. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) 2. Interpersonal Therapy (IPT) 3. Treatment with appropriate medication 4. Special light therapy 5. Electric shock treatment (in acute and exceptional cases) 6. Self-help

Keywords: alcohol, depression, drug, Iran

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2799 The Scenario Analysis of Shale Gas Development in China by Applying Natural Gas Pipeline Optimization Model

Authors: Meng Xu, Alexis K. H. Lau, Ming Xu, Bill Barron, Narges Shahraki

Abstract:

As an emerging unconventional energy, shale gas has been an economically viable step towards a cleaner energy future in U.S. China also has shale resources that are estimated to be potentially the largest in the world. In addition, China has enormous unmet for a clean alternative to substitute coal. Nonetheless, the geological complexity of China’s shale basins and issues of water scarcity potentially impose serious constraints on shale gas development in China. Further, even if China could replicate to a significant degree the U.S. shale gas boom, China faces the problem of transporting the gas efficiently overland with its limited pipeline network throughput capacity and coverage. The aim of this study is to identify the potential bottlenecks in China’s gas transmission network, as well as to examine the shale gas development affecting particular supply locations and demand centers. We examine this through application of three scenarios with projecting domestic shale gas supply by 2020: optimistic, medium and conservative shale gas supply, taking references from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) projections and China’s shale gas development plans. Separately we project the gas demand at provincial level, since shale gas will have more significant impact regionally than nationally. To quantitatively assess each shale gas development scenario, we formulated a gas pipeline optimization model. We used ArcGIS to generate the connectivity parameters and pipeline segment length. Other parameters are collected from provincial “twelfth-five year” plans and “China Oil and Gas Pipeline Atlas”. The multi-objective optimization model uses GAMs and Matlab. It aims to minimize the demands that are unable to be met, while simultaneously seeking to minimize total gas supply and transmission costs. The results indicate that, even if the primary objective is to meet the projected gas demand rather than cost minimization, there’s a shortfall of 9% in meeting total demand under the medium scenario. Comparing the results between the optimistic and medium supply of shale gas scenarios, almost half of the shale gas produced in Sichuan province and Chongqing won’t be able to be transmitted out by pipeline. On the demand side, the Henan province and Shanghai gas demand gap could be filled as much as 82% and 39% respectively, with increased shale gas supply. To conclude, the pipeline network in China is currently not sufficient in meeting the projected natural gas demand in 2020 under medium and optimistic scenarios, indicating the need for substantial pipeline capacity expansion for some of the existing network, and the importance of constructing new pipelines from particular supply to demand sites. If the pipeline constraint is overcame, Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Henan’s gas demand gap could potentially be filled, and China could thereby reduce almost 25% its dependency on LNG imports under the optimistic scenario.

Keywords: energy policy, energy systematic analysis, scenario analysis, shale gas in China

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