Search results for: safety risk assessment

Authors: Shoufeng Cao, Kim Bryceson, Damian Hine

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The existing supply chain risk management (SCRM) research is currently chaotic and somewhat disorganized, and the topic has been addressed conceptually more often than empirically. This paper, using both qualitative and quantitative data, employs a modified Meta-study method to investigate the SCRM empirical research published in quality journals over the period of 12 years (2004-2015). The purpose is to outline the extent research trends and the employed research methodologies (i.e., research method, data collection and data analysis) across the sub-field that will guide future research. The synthesized findings indicate that empirical study on risk ripple effect along an entire supply chain, industry-specific supply chain risk management and global/export supply chain risk management has not yet given much attention than it deserves in the SCRM field. Besides, it is suggested that future empirical research should employ multiple and/or mixed methods and multi-source data collection techniques to reduce common method bias and single-source bias, thus improving research validity and reliability. In conclusion, this paper helps to stimulate more quality empirical research in the SCRM field via identifying promising research directions and providing some methodology guidelines.

Keywords: empirical research, meta-study, methodology guideline, research direction, supply chain risk management

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Authors: Ayesha Ali, Emilia Lindquist, Arif Jalal, Hannah Yusuf, Kayan Cheung, Rowan Eastabrook

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It is currently estimated that over a third of deaths in children under five in Tanzania are caused by acute respiratory infections (ARIs). However, despite being one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality across the developing world, its risk factors are poorly understood. Therefore, a systematic review of the literature published between 2015 and 2020 was conducted, focusing on risk factors for ARI in Tanzanian children under the age of five. 2015 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Tanzania was analysed to supplement these findings with national data. 2224 papers were retrieved from two databases and were analysed by three independent reviewers. Thirteen papers were eligible for inclusion, covering a wide range of risk factors among which comorbidities (n=6), malnutrition (n=5), lack of parental education (n=4), poor socio-economic status (n=3), and delay in seeking healthcare (n=3) were the most cited risk factors. The risk factors with the highest reported risk ratios/odds ratios were lack of parental education (RR=11.5-14.5), followed by enrolment in school (RR=4.4), delay in seeking healthcare (RR=3.8) and cooking indoors (aOR =1.8-RR=5.5). The DHS data provided local context to these risk factors. For instance, the number of children experiencing symptoms of ARI in both urban and rural areas ranged between 4.5-5% in the two weeks prior to the survey. However, 79% of symptomatic children in Zanzibar received antibiotics for treatment compared to just 34% of those in the Southern Highlands. As demonstrated by both the systematic review and the DHS analysis, risk factors for ARI are predominantly socially determined, with Tanzania’s poorer rural children possessing the highest risk for ARI and more adverse health outcomes. Therefore, the burden of ARIs in Tanzanian children may be alleviated through the provision of appropriate treatment and parental education in rural areas.

Keywords: acute respiratory infection, child, health education, morbidity, mortality, pneumonia, Tanzania

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Authors: Mohsin Ali Baloch, Saira Baloch

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Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of serum lipid profiles in Urban and Rural Population of Sindh, to indicate the existing risk of cardiovascular diseases. Material and Methods: Study was conducted at Liaquat University of Medical & Health Sciences, in the cities of Jamshoro and Hyderabad of Sindh. Blood samples from 300 healthy individuals were collected in fasting condition, out them 100 were from rural population, 100 were urban while 100 were used as control group. The biochemistry of these samples was obtained by the analysis of total Cholesterol, high density lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL), low-density lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL) and Triglycerides using kit method on Analyzer Clinical Chemistry. Results and Conclusion: Serum levels of total cholesterol, Triglycerides, and LDL cholesterol were significantly raised in the rural and urban males, whereas HDL cholesterol was decreased as compared to the Healthy controls that indicated significant risk of CVD. Urban population was with more risk of CVD and male gender in both groups was at more risk. The worst lipid profile in gender wise distribution was observed in male gender of urban population with highest Total Cholesterol/HDL Ratio while female gender also shown moderate risk of CVD with highest LDL/HDL Ratio.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, lipid profiles, urban and rural population, LDL/HDL Ratio

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Authors: Arezoo Fallahi

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We aimed at investigating the association between health beliefs and exercise behavior in infertile women who were at risk of developing osteoporosis. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Sanandaj city, west of Iran in 2018. From 35 comprehensive healthcare centers, 483 infertile women were included in the study through convenience sampling. Standardized face-to-face interviews were conducted using established, reliable instruments for the assessment of exercise behavior behavior and health beliefs. Logistic regression models were applied to assess the association between exercise behavior and health beliefs. Estimates were adjusted for age, job status, income, literacy, and duration and type of infertility. We reported estimated logits and Odds Ratios (OR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Employed women compared to housewives had substantially higher odds of adopting exercise behavior behaviors (OR=3.19, 95% CI=1.53-6.66, p<0.01). Moreover, the odds of exercise behavior adoption increased with self-efficacy (OR=1.35, 95% CI=1.20-1.52, p<0.01), and decreased with perceived barriers (OR=0.90, 95% CI=0.84-0.97, p<0.01). It is essential to increase perceived self-efficacy and reduce perceived barriers to promote EB in infertile women. Consequently, health professionals should develop or adopt appropriate strategies to decrease barriers and increase self-efficacy to enhance exercise behavior in this group of women.

Keywords: infertility, women, exercise, osteoporosis

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Authors: Odd Ivar Haugen

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Society increasingly relies on complex systems whose behaviour is determined, not by the properties of each part, but by the interaction between them. The behaviour of such systems is emergent. Modelling emergent system behaviour requires a systems approach that incorporates the necessary concepts that are capable of determining such behaviour. The CESM metamodel is a model of system models. A set of system models needs to address the elements of CESM at different levels of abstraction to be able to model the behaviour of a complex system. Modern ships contain numerous sophisticated equipment, often accompanied by a local safety system to protect its integrity. These control systems are then connected into a larger integrated system in order to achieve the ship’s objective or mission. The integrated system becomes what is commonly known as a system of systems, which can be termed a complex system. Examples of such complex systems are the dynamic positioning system and the power management system. Three ship accidents are provided as examples of how system complexity may contribute to accidents. Then, the three accidents are discussed in terms of how the Multi-Level/Multi-Model Safety Analysis might catch scenarios such as those leading to the accidents described.

Keywords: emergent properties, CESM metamodel, multi-level/multi-model safety analysis, safety, system complexity, system models, systems thinking

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Authors: Danish Farooq, Janos Juhasz

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Car-motorcycle accidents have been observed higher in recent years, which caused mainly riders’ fatalities and serious injuries. In-depth crash investigation methods aim to investigate the main factors which are likely involved in fatal road accidents and injury outcomes. The main objective of this study is to investigate the involved factors in car-motorcycle accidents in Budapest city. The procedure included statistical analysis and data sampling to identify car-motorcycle accidents by dominant accident types based on collision configurations. The police report was used as a data source for specified accidents, and simulation models were plotted according to scale (M 1:200). Car-motorcycle accidents were simulated in Virtual Crash software for 5 seconds before the collision. The simulation results showed that the main involved factors to car-motorcycle accidents were human behavior and view obstructions. The comprehensive, in-depth analysis also found that most of the car drivers and riders were unable to perform collision avoidance manoeuvres before the collision. This study can help the traffic safety authorities to focus on simulated involved factors to solve road safety issues in car-motorcycle accidents. The study also proposes safety measures to improve safe movements among road users.

Keywords: car motorcycle accidents, in-depth analysis, microscopic simulation, safety measures

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Authors: Bassma A. Abdel Haleem, Ehab K. Emam, George E. Yacoub, Ashraf M. Salem

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Background: Obesity is an increasingly common problem in childhood. Childhood obesity is considered the main risk factor for the development of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (diabetes type 2, dyslipidemia, and hypertension). Recent studies estimated that among children with obesity 30-60% will develop MetS. Visceral fat thickness is a valuable predictor of the development of MetS. Computed tomography and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry are the main techniques to assess visceral fat. However, they carry the risk of radiation exposure and are expensive procedures. Consequently, they are seldom used in the assessment of visceral fat in children. Some studies explored the potential of ultrasound as a substitute to assess visceral fat in the elderly and found promising results. Given the vulnerability of children to radiation exposure, we sought to evaluate ultrasound as a safer and more cost-efficient alternative for measuring visceral fat in obese children. Additionally, we assessed the correlation between visceral fat and obesity indicators such as insulin resistance. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 46 children with obesity (aged 6–16 years). Their visceral fat was evaluated by ultrasound. Subcutaneous fat thickness (SFT), i.e., the measurement from the skin-fat interface to the linea alba, and visceral fat thickness (VFT), i.e., the thickness from the linea alba to the aorta, were measured and correlated with anthropometric measures, fasting lipid profile, homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and liver enzymes (ALT). Results: VFT assessed via ultrasound was found to strongly correlate with the BMI, HOMA-IR with AUC for VFT as a predictor of insulin resistance of 0.858 and cut off point of >2.98. VFT also correlates positively with serum triglycerides and serum ALT. VFT correlates negatively with HDL. Conclusions: Ultrasound, a safe and cost-efficient technique, could be a useful tool for measuring the abdominal fat thickness in children with obesity. Ultrasound-measured VFT could be an appropriate prognostic factor for insulin resistance, hypertriglyceridemia, and elevated liver enzymes in obese children.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, pediatric obesity, sonography, visceral fat

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Authors: Nurten Akgun, Dilum Dissanayake, Neil Thorpe, Margaret C. Bell

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Cycling has gained a great attention with comparable speeds, low cost, health benefits and reducing the impact on the environment. The main challenge associated with cycling is the provision of safety for the people choosing to cycle as their main means of transport. From the road safety point of view, cyclists are considered as vulnerable road users because they are at higher risk of serious casualty in the urban network but more specifically at roundabouts. This research addresses the development of an enhanced mathematical model by including a broad spectrum of casualty related variables. These variables were geometric design measures (approach number of lanes and entry path radius), speed limit, meteorological condition variables (light, weather, road surface) and socio-demographic characteristics (age and gender), as well as contributory factors. Contributory factors included driver’s behavior related variables such as failed to look properly, sudden braking, a vehicle passing too close to a cyclist, junction overshot, failed to judge other person’s path, restart moving off at the junction, poor turn or manoeuvre and disobeyed give-way. Tyne and Wear in the UK were selected as a case study area. The cyclist casualty data was obtained from UK STATS19 National dataset. The reference categories for the regression model were set to slight and serious cyclist casualties. Therefore, binary logistic regression was applied. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that approach number of lanes was statistically significant at the 95% level of confidence. A higher number of approach lanes increased the probability of severity of cyclist casualty occurrence. In addition, sudden braking statistically significantly increased the cyclist casualty severity at the 95% level of confidence. The result concluded that cyclist casualty severity was highly related to approach a number of lanes and sudden braking. Further research should be carried out an in-depth analysis to explore connectivity of sudden braking and approach number of lanes in order to investigate the driver’s behavior at approach locations. The output of this research will inform investment in measure to improve the safety of cyclists at roundabouts.

Keywords: binary logistic regression, casualty severity, cyclist safety, roundabout

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Authors: Dedjo Yao Simon, Takahiro Saito, Norikazu Inuzuka, Ikuo Sugiyama

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Abidjan city (Republic of Ivory Coast) is an emerging megacity and an urban coastal area where the number of floods reported is on a rapid increase due to climate change and unplanned urbanization. However, comprehensive disaster mitigation plans, policies, and financial resources are still lacking as the population ignores the extent and location of the flood zones; making them unprepared to mitigate the damages. Considering the existing condition, this paper aims to discuss an approach for flood risk reduction in Cocody Commune through value capture strategy and flood risk communication. Using geospatial techniques and hydrological simulation, we start our study by delineating flood zones and depths under several return periods in the study area. Then, through a questionnaire a field survey is conducted in order to validate the flood maps, to estimate the flood risk and to collect some sample of the opinion of residents on how the flood risk information disclosure could affect the values of property located inside and outside the flood zones. The results indicate that the study area is highly vulnerable to 5-year floods and more, which can cause serious harm to human lives and to properties as demonstrated by the extent of the 5-year flood of 2014. Also, it is revealed there is a high probability that the values of property located within flood zones could decline, and the values of surrounding property in the safe area could increase when risk information disclosure commences. However in order to raise public awareness of flood disaster and to prevent future housing promotion in high-risk prospective areas, flood risk information should be disseminated through the establishment of an early warning system. In order to reduce the effect of risk information disclosure and to protect the values of property within the high-risk zone, we propose that property tax increments in flood free zones should be captured and be utilized for infrastructure development and to maintain the early warning system that will benefit people living in flood prone areas. Through this case study, it is shown that combination of value capture strategy and risk communication could be an effective tool to educate citizen and to invest in flood risk reduction in emerging countries.

Keywords: Cocody-Abidjan, flood, geospatial techniques, risk communication, value capture

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Authors: Harvard Najoan, Sarwono Sutikno, Yusep Rosmansyah

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Most enterprises are now using information technology services as their assets to support business objectives. These kinds of services are provided by the internal service provider (inside the enterprise) or external service provider (outside enterprise). To deliver quality information technology services, the service provider (which from now on will be called ‘organization’) either internal or external, must have a standard for service management system. At present, the standard that is recognized as best practice for service management system for the organization is international standard ISO/IEC 20000:2011. The most important part of this international standard is the first part or ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011-Service Management System Requirement, because it contains 22 for organization processes as a requirement to be implemented in an organizational environment in order to build, manage and deliver quality service to the customer. Assessing organization management processes is the first step to implementing ISO/IEC 20000:2011 into the organization management processes. This assessment needs Process Assessment Model (PAM) as an assessment instrument. PAM comprises two parts: Process Reference Model (PRM) and Measurement Framework (MF). PRM is built by transforming the 22 process of ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011 and MF is based on ISO/IEC 33020. This assessment instrument was designed to assess the capability of service management process in Divisi Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi (Information Systems and Technology Division) as an internal organization of PT Pos Indonesia. The result of this assessment model can be proposed to improve the capability of service management system.

Keywords: ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011, ISO/IEC 33020:2015, process assessment, process capability, service management system

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Authors: Mohammad H. Ruhipour, Mahdi Goharrokhi, Mahsa Ghasemi, Artadokht Ostadsarayi

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In this paper, we are aiming to study the consequences of chlorine gas leak in direct chlorine gas injection compared to using bleach (sodium hypochlorite), studying the negative effects both on the environment and individuals. This study was performed in the cooling towers of a natural fractioning unit of Bandar-e-IMAM petrochemical plant. Considering that chlorine gas is highly toxic and based on the health regulation, its release into the surrounding environment can be very dangerous for people and even fatal for individuals. We studied performing quantitative studies in the worst cases of event incidence. In addition, studying alternative methods with a lower risk was also on the agenda to select the least likely possible option causing an accident. In this paper chlorine gas release consequences have been evaluated by using PHAST software. Reaching to 10 ppm of chlorine gas concentration was basis of hazardous area determination. The results show that the full chlorine gas line rupture scenario in Pasquill category F, were worst case, and many people could be harmed around cooling towers area because of chlorine gas inhalation.

Keywords: chlorine gas, consequence modeling, cooling towers, direct chlorination, risk assessment, system failure

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), being government-owned organizations have commitments for the economic and social wellbeing of the society; this commitment needs to be reflected in their risk-taking, decision-making and governance structures. Therefore, the primary objective of the study is to suggest measures that may lead to improvement in performance of PSUs. To achieve this objective two normative frameworks (one relating to risk levels and other relating to governance structure) are being put forth. The risk index is based on nine risks, such as, solvency risk, liquidity risk, accounting risk, etc. and each of the risks have been scored on a scale of 1 to 5. The governance index is based on eleven variables, such as, board independence, diversity, risk management committee, etc. Each of them are scored on a scale of 1 to five. The sample consists of 39 PSUs that featured in Nifty 500 index and, the study covers a 10 year period from April 1, 2005 to March, 31, 2015. Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) have been used as proxies of firm performance. The control variables used in the model include, age of firm, growth rate of firm and size of firm. A dummy variable has also been used to factor in the effects of recession. Given the panel nature of data and possibility of endogeneity, dynamic panel data- generalized method of moments (Diff-GMM) regression has been used. It is worth noting that the corporate governance index is positively related to both ROA and ROE, indicating that with the improvement in governance structure, PSUs tend to perform better. Considering the components of CGI, it may be suggested that (i). PSUs ensure adequate representation of women on Board, (ii). appoint a Chief Risk Officer, and (iii). constitute a risk management committee. The results also indicate that there is a negative association between risk index and returns. These results not only validate the framework used to develop the risk index but also provide a yardstick to PSUs benchmark their risk-taking if they want to maximize their ROA and ROE. While constructing the CGI, certain non-compliances were observed, even in terms of mandatory requirements, such as, proportion of independent directors. Such infringements call for stringent penal provisions and better monitoring of PSUs. Further, if the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) bring about such reforms in the PSUs and make mandatory the adherence to the normative frameworks put forth in the study, PSUs may have more effective and efficient decision-making, lower risks and hassle free management; all these ultimately leading to better ROA and ROE.

Keywords: PSU, risk governance, diff-GMM, firm performance, the risk index

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Authors: Debarati Bhaumik, Diptish Dey

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Multilevel models, increasingly deployed in industries such as insurance, food production, and entertainment within functions such as marketing and supply chain management, need to be transparent and ethical. Applications usually result in binary classification within groups or hierarchies based on a set of input features. Using open-source datasets, we demonstrate that popular explainability methods, such as SHAP and LIME, consistently underperform inaccuracy when interpreting these models. They fail to predict the order of feature importance, the magnitudes, and occasionally even the nature of the feature contribution (negative versus positive contribution to the outcome). Besides accuracy, the computational intractability of SHAP for binomial classification is a cause of concern. For transparent and ethical applications of these hierarchical statistical models, sound audit frameworks need to be developed. In this paper, we propose an audit framework for technical assessment of multilevel regression models focusing on three aspects: (i) model assumptions & statistical properties, (ii) model transparency using different explainability methods, and (iii) discrimination assessment. To this end, we undertake a quantitative approach and compare intrinsic model methods with SHAP and LIME. The framework comprises a shortlist of KPIs, such as PoCE (Percentage of Correct Explanations) and MDG (Mean Discriminatory Gap) per feature, for each of these three aspects. A traffic light risk assessment method is furthermore coupled to these KPIs. The audit framework will assist regulatory bodies in performing conformity assessments of AI systems using multilevel binomial classification models at businesses. It will also benefit businesses deploying multilevel models to be future-proof and aligned with the European Commission’s proposed Regulation on Artificial Intelligence.

Keywords: audit, multilevel model, model transparency, model explainability, discrimination, ethics

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Authors: Tamanna Rimi

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A large body of literature has discussed the determinants of migration decision. However, the potential role of individual risk attitudes on migration decision has so far been overlooked. The research on migration literature has studied how the expected income differential influences migration flows for a risk neutral individual. However, migration takes place when there is no expected income differential or even the variability of income appears as lower than in the current location. This migration puzzle motivates a recent trend in the literature that analyzes how attitudes towards risk influence the decision to migrate. However, the significance of risk attitudes on migration decision has been addressed mostly in a theoretical perspective in the mainstream migration literature. The efficient outcome of labor market and overall economy are largely influenced by migration in many countries. Therefore, attitudes towards risk as a determinant of migration should get more attention in empirical studies. To author’s best knowledge, this is the first study that has examined the relationship between relative risk aversion and migration decision in US market. This paper considers movement across United States as a means of migration. In addition, this paper also explores the network effect due to the increasing size of one’s own ethnic group to a source location on the migration decision and how attitudes towards risk vary with network effect. Two ethnic groups (i.e. Asian and Hispanic) have been considered in this regard. For the empirical estimation, this paper uses two sources of data: 1) U.S. census data for social, economic, and health research, 2010 (IPUMPS) and 2) University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, 2010 (HRS). In order to measure relative risk aversion, this study uses the ‘Two Sample Two-Stage Instrumental Variable (TS2SIV)’ technique. This is a similar method of Angrist (1990) and Angrist and Kruegers’ (1992) ‘Two Sample Instrumental Variable (TSIV)’ technique. Using a probit model, the empirical investigation yields the following results: (i) risk attitude has a significantly large impact on migration decision where more risk averse people are less likely to migrate; (ii) the impact of risk attitude on migration varies by other demographic characteristics such as age and sex; (iii) people with higher concentration of same ethnic households living in a particular place are expected to migrate less from their current place; (iv) the risk attitudes on migration vary with network effect. The overall findings of this paper relating risk attitude, migration decision and network effect can be a significant contribution addressing the gap between migration theory and empirical study in migration literature.

Keywords: migration, network effect, risk attitude, U.S. market

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Authors: Abdou Elhendy

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Numerous study have shown the efficacy of the percutaneous intervention (PCI) and coronary stenting in improving left ventricular function and relieving exertional angina. Furthermore, PCI remains the main line of therapy in acute myocardial infarction. Improvement of procedural techniques and new devices have resulted in an increased number of PCI in those with difficult and extensive lesions, multivessel disease as well as total occlusion. Immediate and late outcome may be compromised by acute thrombosis or the development of fibro-intimal hyperplasia. In addition, progression of coronary artery disease proximal or distal to the stent as well as in non-stented arteries is not uncommon. As a result, complications can occur, such as acute myocardial infarction, worsened heart failure or recurrence of angina. In a stent, restenosis can occur without symptoms or with atypical complaints rendering the clinical diagnosis difficult. Routine invasive angiography is not appropriate as a follow up tool due to associated risk and cost and the limited functional assessment. Exercise and pharmacologic stress testing are increasingly used to evaluate the myocardial function, perfusion and adequacy of revascularization. Information obtained by these techniques provide important clues regarding presence and severity of compromise in myocardial blood flow. Stress echocardiography can be performed in conjunction with exercise or dobutamine infusion. The diagnostic accuracy has been moderate, but the results provide excellent prognostic stratification. Adding myocardial contrast agents can improve imaging quality and allows assessment of both function and perfusion. Stress radionuclide myocardial perfusion imaging is an alternative to evaluate these patients. The extent and severity of wall motion and perfusion abnormalities observed during exercise or pharmacologic stress are predictors of survival and risk of cardiac events. According to current guidelines, stress echocardiography and radionuclide imaging are considered to have appropriate indication among patients after PCI who have cardiac symptoms and those who underwent incomplete revascularization. Stress testing is not recommended in asymptomatic patients, particularly early after revascularization, Coronary CT angiography is increasingly used and provides high sensitive for the diagnosis of coronary artery stenosis. Average sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of in stent stenosis in pooled data are 79% and 81%, respectively. Limitations include blooming artifacts and low feasibility in patients with small stents or thick struts. Anatomical and functional cardiac imaging modalities are corner stone for the assessment of patients after PCI and provide salient diagnostic and prognostic information. Current imaging techniques cans serve as gate keeper for coronary angiography, thus limiting the risk of invasive procedures to those who are likely to benefit from subsequent revascularization. The determination of which modality to apply requires careful identification of merits and limitation of each technique as well as the unique characteristic of each individual patient.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, stress testing, cardiac imaging, restenosis

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Authors: Fu-Pei Hsiao, Fung-Chung Tu, Chien-Kuo Chiu

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In this work, to develop a method for detailed assesses of post-earthquake seismic performance for RC buildings in Taiwan, experimental data for several column specimens with various failure modes (flexural failure, flexural-shear failure, and shear failure) are used to derive reduction factors of seismic capacity for specified damage states. According to the damage states of RC columns and their corresponding seismic reduction factors suggested by experimental data, this work applies the detailed seismic performance assessment method to identify the seismic capacity of earthquake-damaged RC buildings. Additionally, a post-earthquake emergent assessment procedure is proposed that can provide the data needed for decision about earthquake-damaged buildings in a region with high seismic hazard. Finally, three actual earthquake-damaged school buildings in Taiwan are used as a case study to demonstrate application of the proposed assessment method.

Keywords: seismic assessment, seismic reduction factor, residual seismic ratio, post-earthquake, reinforced concrete, building

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Authors: Hafid Smaili, Wilfred Rouwhorst, Paul Frost

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The trend of recent accident and incident cases worldwide show that the state-of-the-art automation and operations, for current and future demanding operational environments, does not provide the desired level of operational safety under crew peak workload conditions, specifically in complex situations such as loss-of-control in-flight (LOC-I). Today, the short term focus is on preparing crews to recognise and handle LOC-I situations through upset recovery training. This paper describes the cockpit integration aspects and piloted assessment of both a manually assisted and automatic upset detection and recovery system that has been developed and demonstrated within the European Advanced Cockpit for Reduction Of StreSs and workload (ACROSS) programme. The proposed system is a function that continuously monitors and intervenes when the aircraft enters an upset and provides either manually pilot-assisted guidance or takes over full control of the aircraft to recover from an upset. In order to mitigate the highly physical and psychological impact during aircraft upset events, the system provides new cockpit functionalities to support the pilot in recovering from any upset both manually assisted and automatically. A piloted simulator assessment was made in Oct-Nov 2015 using ten pilots in a representative civil large transport fly-by-wire aircraft in terms of the preference of the tested upset detection and recovery system configurations to reduce pilot workload, increase situational awareness and safe interaction with the manually assisted or automated modes. The piloted simulator evaluation of the upset detection and recovery system showed that the functionalities of the system are able to support pilots during an upset. The experiment showed that pilots are willing to rely on the guidance provided by the system during an upset. Thereby, it is important for pilots to see and understand what the aircraft is doing and trying to do especially in automatic modes. Comparing the manually assisted and the automatic recovery modes, the pilot’s opinion was that an automatic recovery reduces the workload so that they could perform a proper screening of the primary flight display. The results further show that the manually assisted recoveries, with recovery guidance cues on the cockpit primary flight display, reduced workload for severe upsets compared to today’s situation. The level of situation awareness was improved for automatic upset recoveries where the pilot could monitor what the system was trying to accomplish compared to automatic recovery modes without any guidance. An improvement in situation awareness was also noticeable with the manually assisted upset recovery functionalities as compared to the current non-assisted recovery procedures. This study shows that automatic upset detection and recovery functionalities are likely to positively impact the operational safety by means of reduced workload, improved situation awareness and crew stress reduction. It is thus believed that future developments for upset recovery guidance and loss-of-control prevention should focus on automatic recovery solutions.

Keywords: aircraft accidents, automatic flight control, loss-of-control, upset recovery

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Authors: Ahmad Shanei, Milad Baradaran-Ghahfarokhi

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This study aimed to investigate testicular dose (TD) and the associated risk of heritable disease from common pelvis radiotherapy of male patients in Iran. In this work, the relation between TD and changes in beam energy, pelvis size, source to skin distance (SSD) and beam directions (anterior or posterior) were also evaluated. The values of TDs were measured on 67 randomly selected male patients during common pelvis radiotherapy using 1.17 and 1.33 MeV, Theratron Cobalt-60 unit at SSD of 80 cm and 9 MV, Neptun 10 PC and 18 MV, GE Saturne 20 at SSD of 100 cm at Seyed-Al Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. Results showed that the maximum TD was up to 12% of the tumor dose. Considering the risk factor for radiation-induced heritable disorders of 0.1% per Sv, an excess risk of hereditary disorders of 72 per 10000 births was conservatively calculated. There was a significant difference in the measured TD using different treatment machines and energies (P < 0.001). The TD at 100 cm SSD were much less than that for 80 cm SSD (P <0.001). The Pearson Correlation test showed that, as expected, there was a strong correlation between TD and patient’s pelvis size (r = 0.275, P <0.001). Using the student’s t-tests, it was found that, there was not a significant difference between TD and beam direction (P = 0.231). Iranian male patients undergoing pelvic radiotherapy have the potential of receiving a TD of more than 1 Gy which might result in temporary azoospermia. The risk for induction of hereditary disorders in future generations should be considered as low but not negligible in comparison with the correspondent nominal risk.

Keywords: pelvis radiotherapy, testicular dose, infertility, hereditary effects

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Authors: Rims Janeliukstis, Deniss Mironovs, Andrejs Kovalovs

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Operational Modal Analysis (OMA) is widely applied as a method for Structural Health Monitoring for structural damage identification and assessment by tracking the changes of the identified modal parameters over time. Unfortunately, modal parameters also depend on such external factors as temperature and loads. Any structural condition assessment using modal parameters should be done taking into consideration those external factors, otherwise there is a high chance of false positives. A method of structural reliability assessment based on anomaly detection technique called Machalanobis Squared Distance (MSD) is proposed. It requires a set of reference conditions to learn healthy state of a structure, which all future parameters are compared to. In this study, structural modal parameters (natural frequency and mode shape), as well as ambient temperature and loads acting on the structure are used as features. Numerical tests were performed on a finite element model of a carbon fibre reinforced polymer composite beam with delamination damage at various locations and of various severities. The advantages of the demonstrated approach include relatively few computational steps, ability to distinguish between healthy and damaged conditions and discriminate between different damage severities. It is anticipated to be promising in reliability assessment of massively produced structural parts.

Keywords: operational modal analysis, reliability assessment, anomaly detection, damage, mahalanobis squared distance

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Authors: Marwa Mamdouh Shaban, Nagat Saied Habib, Shireen Ezz El-Din Taha, Eman Mahmoud Seif El-Naser

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Background: Dental nurses and dentists were constantly exposed to a number of specific work related health risk factors which develop and intensify with years. Awareness regarding these work-related health risk factors and implementation of preventive health care measures could provide a safe work environment for all dental nurses and dentists. Aim of the study: to assess the work-related health risk factors among dental nurses and dentists and preventive health care measures applied among dental nurses and dentists. Research design: A descriptive design was utilized. Sample: Convenience sample of 50 dental nurses and 150 dentists were included in the current study. Setting: This study was conducted at the dental clinics at faculty of oral and dental medicine, Al-Kasr Al Ainy Hospital. Tools of data collection: Three tools were developed, tested for clarity, and feasibility: a-Socio-demographic data sheet, b-Work-related health risk factors questionnaire, and c-structured observational checklist. Results: The most common work risk factors prevailing among dental nurses were emotional exhaustion (82%), low back pain (76%) and latex allergy (62%) and the most common work risk factors prevailing among dentists were percutaneous exposure incident (100%), emotional exhaustion (100%) and low back pain (93.3%). Also, statistically significant negative correlation (r=-0.274, at p = 0.045) between the incidence of chemical health risk factors and application of chemical preventive measures among dental nurses. A statistically significant negative correlation (r=-0.177, at p = 0.030) between the incidences of mechanical health risk factors among dentists and application of mechanical preventive measures. Conclusion: The studied dental nurses and dentists exposed to many work related health risk factors as latex allergy, percutaneous exposure incidents, low back pain and emotional exhaustion related to inappropriate application of preventive health care measures. Recommendation: Raise awareness of dental nurses and dentists about work-related health risk factors, design and implement health education program for preventive health care measures.

Keywords: work-related risk factors, preventive measures, nurses, dentists

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Authors: Saeid Doaei

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Background: Obesity in adolescence is a primary risk factor for obesity in adulthood. The objective of this study was the assessment of the effect of a comprehensive lifestyle intervention on different anthropometric indices in 12 to 16 years old boy adolescents. Methods: 96 adolescent boys of two schools of District 5 of Tehran have participated in this study. The schools were randomly assigned as intervention school (n=53) and control school (n=43). The height and weight of students were measured with a calibrated tape line and digital scale respectively and their BMI were calculated. The amounts of body fat percent (BF) and body muscle (BM) percent were determined by Bio Impedance Analyzer (BIA) considering the age, gender and height of students at baseline and after intervention. The intervention was implemented in the intervention school, according to the Ottawa charter principles. Results: 12 weeks of intervention decreased body fat percent in the intervention group in comparison with the control group (decreased by 1.81 % in the intervention group and increased by .39 % in the control group, P < .01). However, weight, BMI and BM did not change significantly. Conclusion: The result of this study showed that the implementation of comprehensive intervention in obese adolescents may improve the body composition, although these changes may not be reflected in BMI. It is possible that BMI is not a good indicator in assessment of the success of obesity management intervention.

Keywords: obesity, childhood, BMI, nutrition

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Authors: Renny Wulandari

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This study aims to determine how the influence of Non Performing Financing, Financing Deposit Ratio, Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue and Net Income Margin on the disclosure of financial risk in Sharia banks. To achieve these objectives conducted associative research method with data source in the form of secondary data that is annual report data with period 2013-2016. The population in this study is the sharia banking industry in Indonesia and who issued the annual financial statements. A method of sampling use probability sampling. Analysis in this research is with SEM-PLS. The result is Net Income Margin has a significant effect on financial risk disclosure while Non Performing Financing (NPF) Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR), Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue (OEOR) have no effect on the disclosure of financial risk in sharia bank.

Keywords: Sharia banks, disclosure of risk financial, non performing financing, financing deposit ratio, operating expenses and operating revenue, net income margin

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Authors: Ercan Kızılay, Mustafa Demi̇rel, Selçuk Coşkun

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Railway signaling systems consist of vital products that regulate railway traffic and provide safe route arrangements and maneuvers of trains. SIL 4 signal lamps are produced by many manufacturers today. There is a need for systems that enable these signal lamps to be controlled by commands from the interlocking. These systems should act as fail-safe and give error indications to the interlocking system when an unexpected situation occurs for the safe operation of railway systems from the RAMS perspective. In the past, driving and proving the lamp in relay-based systems was typically done via signaling relays. Today, the proving of lamps is done by comparing the current values read over the return circuit, the lower and upper threshold values. The purpose is an analog electronic object controller with the possibility of easy integration with vital systems and the signal lamp itself. During the study, the EN50126 standard approach was considered, and the concept, definition, risk analysis, requirements, architecture, design, and prototyping were performed throughout this study. FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) and FTA (Fault Tree) Analysis) have been used for safety analysis in accordance with EN 50129. Concerning these analyzes, the 1oo2D reactive fail-safe hardware design of a controller has been researched. Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) effects on the functional safety of equipment, insulation coordination, and over-voltage protection were discussed during hardware design according to EN 50124 and EN 50122 standards. As vital equipment for railway signaling, railway signal object controllers should be developed according to EN 50126 and EN 50129 standards which identify the steps and requirements of the development in accordance with the SIL 4(Safety Integrity Level) target. In conclusion of this study, an analog railway signal object controller, which takes command from the interlocking system, is processed in driver cards. Driver cards arrange the voltage level according to desired visibility by means of semiconductors. Additionally, prover cards evaluate the current upper and lower thresholds. Evaluated values are processed via logic gates which are composed as 1oo2D by means of analog electronic technologies. This logic evaluates the voltage level of the lamp and mitigates the risks of undue dimming.

Keywords: object controller, railway electronic, analog electronic, safety, railway signal

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Authors: B. Sathyanarayana

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As per the report of World Health Organization, more than 80% of world population uses medicines made from herbal and natural materials. They have stood the test of time for their safety, efficacy, cultural acceptability and lesser side effects. Quality assurance and control measures, such as national quality specification and standards for herbal materials, good manufacturing practices (GMP) for herbal medicines, labelling, and licensing schemes for manufacturing, imports and marketing, should be in place in every country where herbal medicines are regulated. These measures are vital for ensuring the safety and efficacy of herbal medicines. In the case of herbal products challenge begins at the stage of designing itself except the classical products. Selection of herbal ingredients, officinal parts to be used, proportions are vital. Once the formulation is designed one should take utmost care to produce the standardized product of assured quality and safety. Quality control measures should cover the validation of quality and identity of raw materials, in process control (as per SOP and GMP norms) and at the level of final product. Quality testing, safety and efficacy studies of the final product are required to ensure the safe and effective use of the herbal products in human beings. Medicinal plants being the materials of natural resource are subjected to great variation making it really difficult to fix quality standards especially in the case of polyherbal preparations. Manufacturing also needs modification according to the type of ingredients present. Hence, it becomes essential to develop Standard operative Procedure for a specific herbal product. Present paper throws a light on the challenges that are encountered during the design and development of herbal products.

Keywords: herbal product, challenges, quality, safety, efficacy

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Authors: Khalid Kaddoura, Tarek Zayed

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Sewer networks are constructed to protect the communities and the environment from any contact with the sewer mediums. Pipelines, being laterals or sewer mains, and manholes form the huge underground infrastructure in every urban city. Due to the sewer networks importance, the infrastructure asset management field has extensive advancement in condition assessment and rehabilitation decision models. However, most of the focus was devoted to pipelines giving little attention toward manholes condition assessment. In fact, recent studies started to emerge in this area to preserve manholes from any malfunction. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to propose a condition assessment model for sewer manholes. The model divides the manhole into several components and determines the relative importance weight of each component using the Analytic Network Process (ANP) decision-making method. Later, the condition of the manhole is computed by aggregating the condition of each component with its corresponding weight. Accordingly, the proposed assessment model will enable decision-makers to have a final index suggesting the overall condition of the manhole and a backward analysis to check the condition of each component. Consequently, better decisions are made pertinent to maintenance, rehabilitation, and replacement actions.

Keywords: Analytic Network Process (ANP), condition assessment, decision-making, manholes

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Authors: Clara Luwe, Oliver Harness, Helena Meally, Kim Martin, Alexandra Harrington

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Background: The role of ‘Renal Specialist Podiatrist’ originated in 2022 due to prevailing evidence of patients with diabetes and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on haemodialysis (HD) and active ulcerations that were at higher risk of rapid deterioration, foot-related hospital admissions, and lower limb amputations. This role started in April 2022 with the aim of screening all patients on haemodialysis and instigating preventative measures to reduce serious foot related complications. Methods: A comprehensive neurovascular foot assessment was completed to establish baseline vascular status and identify those with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) for all patients on HD. Individual’s foot risk was stratified, advice and education tailored and issued. Identifying all diabetes patients on HD as high-risk for diabetic foot complications. Major Findings: All patients screened revealed over half of the caseload had diabetes, and more than half had a clinical presentation of PAD. All those presenting with ulcerations had a diagnosis of diabetes. Of the presenting ulcerations, the majority of these ulcers predated the renal specialist post and were classified as severe >3 SINBAD Score. Since April’22, complications have been identified quicker, reducing the severity (SINBAD<3 or below), and have improved healing times, in line with the national average. During the eight months of the role being in place, we have seen a reduction in minor amputations and no major amputations. Conclusion: By screening all patients on haemodialysis and focusing on education, early recognition of complications, appropriate treatment, and timely onward referral, we can reduce the risk of foot Diabetic foot ulcerations and lower limb amputations. Having regular podiatry input to stratify and facilitate high-risk, active wound patients across different services has helped to keep these patients stable, prevent amputations, and reduce foot-related hospital admissions and mortality from foot-related disease. By improving the accessibility to a specialist podiatrist, patients felt able to raise concerns sooner. This has helped to implement treatment at the earliest possible opportunity, enabling the identification and healing of ulcers at an earlier and less complex stage (SINBAD <3), thus, preventing potential limb-threatening complications.

Keywords: renal, podiatry, haemodialysis, prevention, early detection

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Authors: F. D. Konstandakopoulou, G. A. Papagiannopoulos, N. G. Pnevmatikos, G. D. Hatzigeorgiou

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This paper examines the effects of pile-soil-structure interaction on the dynamic response of offshore platforms under the action of near-fault earthquakes. Two offshore platforms models are investigated, one with completely fixed supports and one with piles which are clamped into deformable layered soil. The soil deformability for the second model is simulated using non-linear springs. These platform models are subjected to near-fault seismic ground motions. The role of fault mechanism on platforms’ response is additionally investigated, while the study also examines the effects of different angles of incidence of seismic records on the maximum response of each platform.

Keywords: hazard analysis, offshore platforms, earthquakes, safety

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Authors: Dolores Sucozhañay, Gustavo Pacheco, Paul Vanegas

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In the context of sustainable development and the transition towards a sustainable circular economy (CE), evaluating the social dimension remains a challenge. Therefore, developing a respective methodology is highly important. First, the change of the economic model may cause significant social effects, which today remain unaddressed. Second, following the current level of globalization, CE implementation requires targeting global material cycles and causes social impacts on potentially vulnerable social groups. A promising methodology is the Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA), which embraces the philosophy of life cycle thinking and provides complementary information to environmental and economic assessments. In this context, the present work uses the updated Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) Guidelines 2020 to assess the social performance of the recycling system of Cuenca, Ecuador, to exemplify a social assessment method. Like many other developing countries, Ecuador heavily depends on the work of informal waste pickers (recyclers), who, even contributing to a CE, face harsh socio-economic circumstances, including inappropriate working conditions, social exclusion, exploitation, etc. Under a Reference Scale approach (Type 1), 12 impact subcategories were assessed through 73 site-specific inventory indicators, using an ascending reference scale ranging from -2 to +2. Findings reveal a social performance below compliance levels with local and international laws, basic societal expectations, and practices in the recycling sector; only eight and five indicators present a positive score. In addition, a social hotspot analysis depicts collection as the most time-consuming lifecycle stage and the one with the most hotspots, mainly related to working hours and health and safety aspects. This study provides an integrated view of the recyclers’ contributions, challenges, and opportunities within the recycling system while highlighting the relevance of assessing the social dimension of CE practices. It also fosters an understanding of the social impact of CE operations in developing countries, highlights the need for a close north-south relationship in CE, and enables the connection among the environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Keywords: SLCA, circular economy, recycling, social impact assessment

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Authors: Maram Shahad Dana Anfal

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This research paper presents the design of a surveillance drone with computer-aided durability and model analyses that provides a cost-effective and efficient solution for various applications. The quadcopter's design is based on a lightweight and strong structure made of materials such as aluminum and titanium, which provide a durable structure for the quadcopter. The structure of this product and the computer-aided durability system are both designed to ensure frequent repairs or replacements, which will save time and money in the long run. Moreover, the study discusses the drone's ability to track, investigate, and deliver objects more quickly than traditional methods, makes it a highly efficient and cost-effective technology. In this paper, a comprehensive analysis of the quadcopter's operation dynamics and limitations is presented. In both simulation and experimental data, the computer-aided durability system and the drone's design demonstrate their effectiveness, highlighting the potential for a variety of applications, such as search and rescue missions, infrastructure monitoring, and agricultural operations. Also, the findings provide insights into possible areas for improvement in the design and operation of the drone. Ultimately, this paper presents a reliable and cost-effective solution for surveillance applications by designing a drone with computer-aided durability and modeling. With its potential to save time and money, increase reliability, and enhance safety, it is a promising technology for the future of surveillance drones. operation dynamic equations have been evaluated successfully for different flight conditions of a quadcopter. Also, CAE modeling techniques have been applied for the modal risk assessment at operating conditions.Stress analysis have been performed under the loadings of the worst-case combined motion flight conditions.

Keywords: drone, material, solidwork, hypermesh

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Authors: Bright Annang Baah

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Evaluating public perceptions of climate change risk and the elements that impact them has been shown to be critical in developing support for climate change action. Previous research has found a variety of elements, including the experience of extreme weather events, that impact public perceptions and worries about climate change. However, little is known about the public's perception of climate change risks and the variables that influence them in developing countries. Using a household survey, this study attempted to evaluate respondents' risk perceptions of climate change, as well as the impact of flooding experience on such beliefs. The findings demonstrate that flood victims have a greater risk perception and are more concerned about climate change than non-victims. Concerns regarding the effects of climate change, on the other hand, were found to be the lowest when compared to other pressing challenges confronting the country. This study's findings contribute to the understanding of climate change risk perception and the impact of extreme weather events from the perspective of a developing nation.

Keywords: climate change risk perception, harsh weather, perceived concern, Accra, Ghana

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